October 2012 5th Hottest On Record; New Record for 2013 Likely to Depend on El Nino

Global surface temperatures were the fifth hottest on record for the month of October 2012 marking the 332nd consecutive above average month on record. The last below average month was recorded during February of 1985. The abnormally hot October, about .63 degrees Celsius above average, followed the hottest September on record for the globe (.67 degrees Celsius hotter than average).

Average temperatures from January through October 2012 are the 8th hottest on record at .58 degrees Celsius above the global average.

ENSO conditions remain neutral and the forecast is for neutral conditions to likely persist.

Overall, conditions would seem to support 2012 ranging from 9th to 4th hottest on record for the year 2012 with the potential for 2013 breaking new global climate records if ENSO tips back into El Nino starting next spring.

Loss of sea ice is also having a greater impact on global temperatures. This year, warmer than normal Arctic Ocean conditions for the month of September contributed to a record-setting month. With sea ice still in record low territory, another hotter than average Arctic September may well be in the offing for 2013.

Links:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/9

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml

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