May Likely to Break Global High Temperature Record as El Nino Conditions Strengthen in Pacific

The human warming-riled monster weather event that is El Nino continued to advance over the Equatorial Pacific this week. Ocean surface temperatures throughout the basin from north and east of New Guinea and along a broad stretch of thousands of miles of ocean climbed. Sporadic west winds and an overall weakness in the trades extended the expansion of warm surface waters along the serpentine back of the El Nino pattern from west-to-east even as a high heat content Kelvin Wave kept conditions below surface much warmer than normal.

sstaanim

(Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies from 2 April to 28 May. Animation source: NOAA)

Large and growing regions of 1 to 2 C warmer than normal surface temperatures expanded in broad, 1,000 + mile stretches near the date line and ranged out from the west coast of South America. An impressive region of, very hot, 2-3 C positive anomalies grew through an ever-larger span from Santa Cruz Island to coastal Ecuador and Peru. Though the above graphic is not granular enough to catch it, daily anomalies in this hot pool exceeded extremely intense +3.5 to +4 C readings.

Readings in the range of +0.5 to +1 C invaded regions north to south, east to west, joining in an extraordinary zone stretching from the Philippines to South America, and from Baja to Hawaii to the Solomon Islands. A separate pool of very hot water north of New Guinea and near the Philippines is likely to play a further role in El Nino development throughout this year should weak trades and anomalous west winds persist. Then, a second and reinforcing pulse of warm water is predicted to push the entire Equatorial Pacific Basin well above a +1 C positive anomaly by late Summer through Fall.

Weekly Anomalies

(Sea surface temperature anomalies in the four key Nino regions all show continued warming through the end of May. Image source: NOAA.)

The tightening grip of El Nino is plainly visible with each of the four key Nino zones showing ongoing temperature increases in what is now a 3-4 month long event. Meanwhile, the key Nino 3.4 zone closed its 4th straight period above the +0.5 C Nino threshold even as it jumped to +0.6 C above average this week. Notably, the Nino 1+2 zone off South America hit a very warm +1.6 C average positive anomaly this week, showing additional warming from strong late April values.

Together, these values all show very solid continued progress toward El Nino.

image

(Map of geographical Niño zones provided by NOAA.)

Conditions in Context: May 2014 Likely Hottest on Record Amidst Ongoing Extreme Weather

Overall, Equatorial Pacific ocean surface temperatures continued their advancement from May 27 to June 2, rising from +0.59 to +0.68 C above the 1979 to 2000 average throughout the week. Global sea surface temperatures have remained in an exceptionally hot and likely global record range between +1 and +1.25 C above 1979 to 2000 averages throughout the month of May and into early June. These extraordinary readings likely combined with very high atmospheric values to put May of 2014 in the range of hottest on record. It is worth noting that, according to NOAA, April of 2014 was also the hottest in the 134 years since global temperature measurements began.

El Nino tends to spike atmospheric heat and, when combined with a brutal human greenhouse gas forcing, greatly increases the likelihood that a given year will reach new global heat extremes.

For 2014, El Nino and global warming related weather disruptions already appear to be taking hold with the Indian Monsoon appearing weak and delayed, a summer heat dome building over Europe and Western Russia, with Southeast China experiencing record floods even as northern and western China and Japan experience record heat. Ongoing droughts and crop disruptions in Brazil, building heat and drought in Indonesia, and Australia experiencing two back to back hottest years on record is also indicative of the screaming global heating that typically comes when El Nino gives human-caused warming an explosive boost.

Links:

NOAA

Indian Monsoon Disrupted

Monsoon Misses Date With India, Onset Delayed

Monster El Nino Emerging From the Depths

 

Leave a comment

59 Comments

  1. Highs around 107 or so predicted in Carlsbad all week. No dust storms at the moment.

    Reply
  2. bassman

     /  June 2, 2014

    Another great post. Robert, do you think there is a good chance that May could not only be the warmest on record but actually smash previous May records? For example, a NOAA anomaly value near .8 beating the previous record 2010 of a .71 value.

    Reply
    • Initial GFS composites show about a +.8 or higher average. Not exactly sure how the NASA numbers will wash out, but it looks like it could be a high deviation, especially high for the ocean surface readings.

      Reply
  3. pintada

     /  June 2, 2014

    Great post as always. It gives me an idea for a climatology course requirement. It would be an upper level or perhaps grad course named – Climate 451: Use of Adjectives 🙂 If scientists could actually communicate …

    And a question:
    If you look at this loop

    as I have every day for the past month or so you can’t help but notice the bright yellow or red strip that parallels the north coast of Alaska. Just to the east of that band is an area that was dark green; ~3 meters of ice. As the loop runs, a prominent wedge of light blue plunges down beside the yellow band. That wedge has been growing as I have watched and now it touches the 5 meter ice along the northern coast of Canada. As the loop continues from actual data to future predictions, the model abruptly closes up the wedge as if it can’t believe that it is there. Has anyone else noticed the bizarre behavior of the Navies model?

    Reply
    • The Navy model treats sea ice like tooth paste. Otherwise, it’s pretty decent for time-frame comparisons and for analysis of Ekman pumping events (strong high or low pressure systems).

      That said, it’s worth noting we have a relatively decent and persistent high over the Beaufort which is cranking the Sea Ice in clockwise fashion and really doing a number on the edge ice in the Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev Seas. 10 day model shows the high bouncing around the Beaufort so we end up with ongoing stress.

      The Ekman pumping for the high results in upwelling at the ice edge which can speed melt in those zones. Polynya size on the Russian side pushing 200 miles in width in some areas now.

      Reply
  4. Apneaman

     /  June 2, 2014

    Forget about blaming scientists. Many of them in my country, Canada are now unemployed. Hard to pay the mortgage that way. Keep the family together. What great personal sacrifice have the rest of us made? Did you speak truth to power at work? Put your family’s welfare on the line to warn the public? I have been listening to and passing on the warnings since the 1980s. Guess what? Almost no one wants to hear it. Not then and even less now as we approach our consequences. No one is to blame, everyone is to blame.

    Reply
  5. Apneaman

     /  June 2, 2014

    So do I. But there are many others who are just as guilty. For example, the PR companies they hire and their scummy employees. They all know exactly what they are doing. Their masters will probably scapegoat them to the vengeance seekers when the time comes. It has always been done that way.

    Reply
    • The scape goat list is endless. But those corps, execs, and major share holders sit front and center. They acted to delay action as long as possible and their political and media influence is vast. They set us back at least 30 years. We’re that long and 800 gigatons of carbon emissions behind the 8 ball now.

      Even now, they’re blowing smoke about job losses RE the new and very mild EPA regulations. Chamber of Commerce analysts obviously can’t count. Renewables supports more jobs than fossil fuels ever will. The real thing they’re fighting for is accumulated capital. But with climate change ramping up, much of that capital is an illusion anyway.

      Reply
  6. Griffin

     /  June 2, 2014

    Robert, I would like to thank you for taking your time for this blog. Your posts, as well as the comments by your readers, are giving me a unique perspective on the fascinating events unfolding before us. My question is, given all that we have seen recently in regards to the ice sheets, how soon would you think we would see a 6 inch rise in sea level on the east coast? I know the true amount of rise necessary would vary by location but to me, 6 inches is a good benchmark for visual confirmation of SLR on a daily basis. By this I mean the point at which the everyday person would have that look at the ocean and know that it really is rising, and not just coastal erosion from a storm.

    Reply
    • I grew up with sea level rise. Over the span of my life, sea levels have already risen by 8 inches in my home town of Virginia Beach. By the time 2050 rolls around, that 8 inches will likely be 1.5 to 4 feet.

      If you live in a coastal city or town and own land, your land is at risk now. Your towns and communities are at risk. Insurance companies and FEMA will probably only continue to fund flood relief for broad regions facing inundation for another decade or two, perhaps three at the most. After that, it’s major real estate crashes followed by mass migration from the coast.

      Some communities will have the resources to hold out for longer. They’ll raise sea walls and build tidal gates and elevate roads and buildings. Some will elevate whole communities. But without extraordinarily rapid ghg mitigation, even the most resourceful adapters will eventually succumb. Under BAU fossil fuel emissions, coastal communities in the US have between a 25 and 150 year lifespan. The low lying, rapidly sinking and barrier island communities go first, but the rest follow. Those with steep topography have greater resilience, but probably still lose their waterfronts rather quickly. Those on flat coastal plains fare only slightly better than barrier islands. Galveston, New Orleans, Miami, Hampton Roads, DC, Boston, Seattle and hundreds and hundreds of other coastal communities are in for a very rough time before likely having to give up and move inland and up hill.

      I suppose crash climate change mitigation +adaptation could save a number of them. But at the rate glaciers appear to be destabilizing, there would likely still be serious losses with the ultimate outcome in doubt.

      If you see beach erosion now, a good portion of it is from sea level rise. The storms have a higher launching pad now. Just one inch of SLR can translate into a hundred yards of unreplenished beach lost. Most coastal communities already spend millions just to pump in sand that will be washed away in a few years. If you live in Virginia Beach, you’ve become accustomed to seeing the almost constant presence of dredging rigs. They weren’t there when I was a kid. Why are they there now? Sea level rise.

      Reply
      • Griffin

         /  June 3, 2014

        I have seen the effects firsthand. I had the pleasure of visiting Sandwich, MA last year after a number of winter storms had pushed a surge up the beach. There is a town boardwalk there that crosses a marsh to go over the dunes. From the parking lot, the dunes had always blocked the view of the ocean. That winter of 2012-2013 had seen the ocean come across the dunes into the marsh. From the parking lot, the view of the ocean was breathtaking. The carload of seniors that jumped out gawking and pointing at a view that they had never before witnessed, spoke volumes to me about the rarity of what I was seeing. This winter, the local news crews frequented the town during nor’easters, hoping to show the rush of seawater into downtown on live TV. That simply didn’t happen 20 years ago. Fortunately the frequent storms of this past winter did not have the track necessary to pummel the area the way they could have, but I wonder if folks really do appreciate what they are seeing for changes there. A few more inches and there will be an awakening on a larger scale I am sure. Thank you for the response!

        Reply
        • I used to love to watch the storms race up the beach and challenge the dunes as a child. The ocean is much stronger now. So I fear for the dunes and what lies behind.

          There is glory and majesty and wonder and danger for those who come to the edge of the sea. More so danger these days than before.

          The news crews will probably have much to report in coming years. As for seniors, I’m trying to convince my parents to move above the fall line.

  7. Steve

     /  June 3, 2014

    Robert: I’ve heard you mention trying to convince your parents to move before. If you don’t mind sharing, how do they take the information that you share with them about climate change?

    Reply
    • Slow. My dad just ‘got it’ with the recent NASA/JPL report. My mom has gotten it for a while. But bad news is hard news. They’ve lived in that community their whole lives so it’s tough to uproot.

      Add my sister, my niece, my two still living grandparents and a number of close friends.

      Reply
      • Steve

         /  June 3, 2014

        That’s why I am so pessimistic about people coming together and making changes. Your dad has to know how honest & intelligent you are, but the road that we are going down is just too unbelievable for people to accept without personally taking that trip. I have spoke to many people about the things that I have learned from you & your posters on this blog, but not one person has asked for your website information.

        Reply
        • climatehawk1

           /  June 3, 2014

          I think talking to people one-on-one is just too slow. My efforts are focused on social media. I tweet a lot of the posts from here, hope it helps.

        • Absolutely. Every bit helps. Individual, media, policy.

        • It’s OK, Steve. Keep fighting the good fight. It only takes about 20 percent to tip the scales. My dad is coming around.

      • My Mom gets it. About 3 century floods in Iowa in the past 15 years. 2 500-year floods for the Mississippi Valley in the same amount of time. My father, I think he has always gotten it. Me? I was still an Objectivist liberta

        Reply
        • Randian Objectivist or just generally?

          Iowa in the zone for getting hammered by rain over the past week…

      • … rian in 2000, although I had known even before I had gotten into it that ideology was no basis for dismissing special relativity, general relativity or quantum mechanics. Physics was my first love. But early 2001 I had decided that ideology was no basis for dismissing global warming as the latter is a matter of physics. Not that I actually bought into global warming at that point, but the mere possibility that it was real was more than enough to make me re-examine my worldview.

        PS Don’t know what it is, but every once in a while I will be typing away in a comment form, and all of the sudden the page will reload showing my half-finished comment. I need to make an iron rule that I type in Notepad, paste into the form.

        Reply
        • I was a moderate republican/independently minded voter pre Bush. Never entirely bought the ideology that was coming up through the 90s. Too many unanswered questions, so I broke with trends to vote dem and independent in a number of cases even then. Never liked neoliberal trade policy the neocons and corps were pushing so hard. Was pretty sure about global warming being human-caused and real with possible exceptions through about 2003 when the clear and present danger risks started to emerge more and more visibly.

          Became very concerned about sea ice around 2005 and have been convinced of something being terribly wrong since the 2007 meltdown. Weather, overall, has been an utter mess and ramping into more extremes since the 1998 El Nino. By the mid 2000s it was pretty easy to discern signal from noise.

          I think my switch to democratic progressive occurred when the republican party visibly abandoned rational principle during the first Bush term. What was nearly a complete embrace of narcissistic religious and corporate lunacy came as a heavy blow to someone who believed that markets needed to be kept under tight reign to behave rationally and that religious/political views should not impede the progress of science.

          The 2008 crash following total laissez faire policies driven by conservatives throughout the 90s and into the 2000s further increased a growing feeling of betrayal. I never liked the conservative/neoliberal push for the repeal of Glass Stegal. Worst bargaining chip ever offered up by a president and democratic party in my lifetime.

          The misinformation about Iraq, which I covered during my time at Jane’s, was also a key contributor.

      • Oh, I probably should mention that even once I left the movement it still took me about six years before I fully realized that global warming was happening and it became important to me. For about a year and a half I just focused on work, then for several years I focused on evolutionary biology. Then I finally wandered over to Real Climate and started to learn about the greenhouse effect..

        Reply
        • Captive minds.

          You just have to wonder the at the immense effort undertaken to shut people off from science. The insertion of the notion that science has a political agenda. The manufacturing of some so-called humanist conspiracy.

          You are an intelligent, perceptive individual who found your way out of an illusion. Who kept asking the right questions. I have good friends that are still living in the ideology. Good friends who are otherwise very intelligent persons.

      • robertscribbler wrote:

        Randian Objectivist or just generally?

        The philosophy of Ayn Rand, more or less. But I broke with the more dogmatic Ayn Rand Institute back in the early to mid 1990s. The movement has had a fair number of schisms. There was the break between David Kelley and Leonard Peikoff where Kelley went on to form the Institute for Objectivist Studies, but then there was the later break between George Reisman (who, like Friedrich A. Hayek and Alan Greenspan, was a student of Ludwig von Mises) and Leonard Peikoff where Reisman simply wanted to know why Kelley had been thrown out. Reisman didn’t side with Kelley, though. But when I found out about how Reisman had been treated (I was actually in contact with Reisman) I broke with ARI.

        I, however, came more into the orbit of a fellow by the name of Chris Matthew Sciabarra. I was a philosophy major focusing on epistemology and the philosophy of science. There were strong similarities between his dialectical approach to Objectivism and my dual foundational approach to the philosophy that largely grew out of a less dogmatic work Peikoff was developing prior to the break with Kelley. I was also indebted to some work by Kelley, my criticism of Kant, Descartes and Early 20th Century Empiricism, and certain developments in mainstream philosophy of science. Sciabarra’s work placed Rand’s Objectivism in the Russian Silver Age dialectical tradition.

        With my emphasis on the priority of epistemic over ethical normativity, I created The Objectivist Ring, a webring which in time for the 40th anniversary of Atlas Shrugged had 40 websites and actually at time home website was riding higher in the major search engines than both the Ayn Rand Institute and Institute for Objectivist Studies, that is, for the search terms “Objectivism” and “Objectivist”. The ring existed to promote intellectual independence and dialogue between people who did not necessarily share the same views. The ring’s motto was “The objective mind places no value or allegiance above its own adherence to reality”.

        My emphasis on dialogue was further reinforced by St. Johns College while getting a Masters degree in its The Great Books of Western Civilization program, during which time I fell in love with both Aristotle and Plato. I was also influenced by the ethical vision of J. Michael Straczynski which he illustrated through Babylon 5.

        Reply
      • robertscribbler wrote:

        Captive minds.

        You just have to wonder the at the immense effort undertaken to shut people off from science. The insertion of the notion that science has a political agenda. The manufacturing of some so-called humanist conspiracy.

        You are an intelligent, perceptive individual who found your way out of an illusion.

        As someone who is not religious, at one time I wrote:

        In the existential realm, religion properly provides the individual with the moral courage to act despite the possibility of failure, where failure can sometimes mean the possibility of actual death, and the fear of failure itself can often be experienced as such. Likewise, the fear of being mistaken — where being mistaken may threaten our beliefs about who we are — is at times experienced as a threat much like death itself. Here, too, there is need for moral courage, although of a somewhat different kind. Properly, religion encourages in its own way the view that while recognizing one’s mistakes may be experienced prospectively as a form of death, the act itself brings a form of rebirth and self-transcendence, giving one the courage to revise one’s beliefs when confronted with new evidence.

        Religion and Science, Timothy Chase, British Centre for Science Education

        In my view, the religiosity of young earth creationists necessitates a war with science and trains them through habit to be extremely dishonest — to the extent that they actively participate in the “creationist/evolutionist-debate.” To be as a god — in their own eyes, achieving “immortality” through the unlimited power of denial that makes invincible their unchanging, dogmatic belief — so as to avoid the “death” of one’s self-conception that a willingness to admit one’s mistakes might imply. But others, equally religious, might view that changelessness itself as a form of living death, and the growth (or “constant rebirth”) which an openness to admitting one’s mistakes implies — as the one true form of immortality which is open to us in this world.

        Hopefully I managed to free a few minds in the process of winning my own freedom.

        Reply
        • Bravo for you, Timothy. That was very well done and written, sir.

          To me, rigid adherence to any form of dogma is a kind of intellectual and spiritual death. The aim of religion should be the liberation, enlightenment, and empowerment of spirits to just, brave, and selfless action. But the structures of dogma all too often create the cages in which such potential greatness is strangled.

          Religiosity indeed. If a religion cannot survive confrontation with the obvious truth that is evolution, then that religion is a hollow, paltry thing that relies on belief in falsehood. Such constructs are awful abominations and should not exist at all.

  8. james cole

     /  June 3, 2014

    What weather system is responsible for this type of storm over Iran. “Record winds have created a massive sandstorm which hit Tehran on Monday, plunging the Iranian capital into darkness, damaging buildings, and killing at least four people.

    The disaster struck at 5:10 p.m. local time, knocking out power supplies and sending residents to rush for cover. The wind, reported at 110 kilometers per hour, snapped trees and sweeped debris across streets.”
    I lose track of record rains in Siberia, record fires in Siberia, floods in Serbia, and now sand storms in Iran. What can we expect if a fully developed large El Nino makes it’s presence known by late summer?

    Reply
    • rayduray

       /  June 3, 2014

      Re: “What can we expect if a fully developed large El Nino makes it’s presence known by late summer?”

      Hell and high water.

      Reply
    • Hot and heavy blocking high just north of the Caspian. Pop up thunderstorms can’t rain to the surface due to high heat and low relative humidity. Vertical wind shear is punched down to the surface in high velocity wind/dust storm event.

      I would expect the drought/rain extreme to intensify with us likely to see some rather enormous lumbering highs bullying the weather patterns. Storm track tries but fails to make it to US west coast. Flood threat from central US east. Few to moderate number of tropical cyclones develop in Atlantic, but more of those that do are on track for landfall. The Pacific cyclone season goes nuts.

      Brazil drought worsens. California drought worsens. Indian monsoon sputters. It’s hot in Australia. The Caspian high has even odds for turning into a major heat wave, fire and drought event for Russia and Europe.

      Siberian weather is a basket case. Fires in the ridges deluge in the troughs. Pacific moisture backs up into Korea, North China and Irkutsk and does a good job looking like a monsoon fighting with a heat wave.

      Sea ice shows the resiliency of tissue paper when confronted with any kind of intense or persistent weather pattern. And that’s not a tenth of it…

      Reply
      • Mark from New England

         /  June 3, 2014

        And unfortunately, Mother Nature is just getting warmed up. The real game, that goes into extra innings, is likely to the period between 2 – 6 C of warming. Probably circa 2030 > thousands of years from now?

        It’s utterly amazing how powerful carbon dioxide is at such small levels in the overall atmosphere. THAT’s also something that many people fail to grasp. The ‘denialists’ point to such puny absolute levels measured in the parts per million and say, hey, an increase of 100 ppm is too small to care about.

        That was another good illustration in the last Cosmos, using butterflies as stand ins for CO2 molecules and showing how only a small increase or decrease can have disproportionate consequences.

        Reply
        • BAU could push us out to 2 C by 2036, according to Mann. That 1.2 C additional warming over 22 years would be a vicious pace with ramping weather response through the period.

          Add energy and the weather dog gets a longer leash, for a time at least.

      • Is he saying that BAU will push us to 2°C by 2036 or simply that BAU by 2036 will commit us to 2°C ? I was under the impression that it was the latter.

        Reply
        • Mann notes that under current understanding of Earth systems sensitivity, we could hit +2 C warming under BAU by 2036 and that only 3 more years of BAU emissions locks us in to +2 C before the end of this century even with strong policy response and reductions afterward.

          We’ve wasted a lot of time and the massive size and growth of emissions over the past two decades means we will be very hard put to it.

      • You are right:

        If the world continues to burn fossil fuels at the current rate, global warming will rise 2 degrees Celsius by 2036, crossing a threshold that many scientists think will hurt all aspects of human civilization: food, water, health, energy, economy and national security.

        Why Global Warming Will Cross a Dangerous Threshold in 2036, Michael Mann, Scientific American. 2014-03-18

        … but perhaps he is omitting from his calculations the effect of reflective, cooling effects of sulfate aerosols that would temporarily mask the warming? I will do some digging.

        Reply
      • I see what you mean:

        Scientists and policy makers commonly say that the world has to keep atmospheric Co2 levels below 450 ppm to avoid two degrees C of warming (the level briefly hit 400 ppm in 2013). Yet if the atmospheres’s climate sensitivity is three degrees C (orange), warming can be limited to that amount only if we keep emitting polluting aerosols (particles in the atmosphere that partly block the sun’s heat) at current rates (dashed orange). Ironically, the reduction in coal burning needed to lower CO2 emissions also lessons aerosols, sending temperatures across the danger line (dotted orange). The same is true if the sensitivity is 2.5 degrees C (gold). These data therefore indicate that to reliably avoid two degrees C of warming CO2 levels should be held to 405 ppm (blue) — barely above the 393 to 400 ppm CO2 levels observed in the past year.

        Legend to “False Hope” Chart from “Earth Will Cross the Climate Danger Threshold by 2036”, Michael E. Mann, Scientific American, 2014-03-18

        Reply
        • James Hansen’s Faustian Bargain.

          We are at a total ghg forcing of 481 CO2e now, subtract the aerosols and we’re at around 425 CO2e. Both are brutal.

          The aerosols from coal give a false sense of security, at first, seem like a necessity later on, and don’t do a damn thing to help you still later.

          Amazing how our carbon addiction behaves like heroin. At a certain point, if you stop taking it, it will kill you even though you’re already dead if you keep taking it. Such is the horror that is coal.

      • Large parts of southern Norway has had forest fire warnings up for weeks now. Fortunately so far there hasn’t been any big ones recently (although there were some nasty ones in the winter/early spring). Generally the April/May temperatures has been above average here, an exceptionally nice start of summer really. Will be interesting to see what kind of temps we get mid-summer.

        Reply
        • The models seem to want to extend a limb of that high north of the Caspian in your direction. If that happens, temps will spike a bit more. The Jet is a mess but the storm track seems to keep reforming over Eastern Europe, which tends to keep your weather clear.

          How extreme is the fire hazard now?

        • Well, I am not sure where to look up fire hazard as a rating, but yr.no has this info:

          http://www.yr.no/obsvarsel/

          (Google translate for english text). Large parts of Norway has fire warning, there has been very little precipitation for these past two weeks.

        • Next two days also projected to be warming up for much of Scandinavia. Don’t know if the most extreme heat will make it to Norway, though.

  9. rayduray

     /  June 3, 2014

    Some may find this talk about fire, drought and the U.S. West of interest:

    Reply
  10. Phil

     /  June 3, 2014

    Great post. It is hard to get definitive news about the development of the El Nino because of a common view that the atmospheric forcing seems somewhat lack lustre at present. There seems alot of uncertainty about the likely strength given this forcing as well as the status of any follow up EKW’s and whether they will be strong enough or arrive in time to reinforce the earlier large EKW and move the system towards a strong or super El Nino. Alternatively, things might just continue has they have over the last couple of weeks possibily producing a weak to moderate El Nino.

    In Australia, May was the hottest may on record and the long term forecast is for a warm dry winter period. In some respects, even though we have been in ENSO neutral territory since 2013, the last 12 months have felt like an El Nino. Given that, a true El Nino might really be a sight to behold.

    I suppose it is a waiting game as this stage, in a similar way as it is to the Arctic sea ice. There weather models forecasts for five or so days out often look very bad for the sea ice but then they do not quite eventuate producing a somewhat muted response over the last week or two. Will be interesting to see how things develop although it looks like things might be beginning to pick up again melt wise.

    Reply
  11. Advitiya2U

     /  June 3, 2014

    Hello Robert and all of your non brain-dead readers. Thanks ever so much for all of the in-depth and articulate work which you are doing to keep us all abreast of ongoing developments with respect to AGW. Your blog is my daily must-read where climate matters and my understanding therof is concerned.

    That having been said Robert, I was wondering if you could enlighten me (and perhaps others of your readers) with regard to ‘El Nino Zones’? You have mentioned several times over the last weeks about El Nino Zones 4, 3.4, 3 and 1&2. What specifically do these numbers refer to? I have never heard them referenced before, though I thought had been ‘in the loop’ with regard to ENSO-related phenomena since the 1998 iteration.

    Thanks again for all you do!

    Best regards to all!

    Reply
  12. Monsoon delayed, may hit Rajasthan by July 1

    “Rajasthan is unlikely to get respite from blistering heat searing the region until June end amid expectations that a delayed monsoon is likely to hit the desert state on July 1…

    Barmer remained hottest in the state as it recorded a maximum temperature of 45.8 degrees Celsius, the met report said on Monday.”

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/jaipur/Monsoon-delayed-may-hit-Rajasthan-by-July-1/articleshow/35968554.cms

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  June 3, 2014

      It sure takes a long time for a monsoon to progress across the Indian subcontinent. Perhaps Andy from Bangalore can chime in when the rains arrive there in the south (or have they already?)

      Reply
    • Looking like the tilt toward El Nino is more than enough to nudge the Monsoon out of whack.

      Reply
  13. I was looking at climate reanalyzer this morning and saw the temperature anomaly for the area around Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam was quite high. Anyone know if they’re getting disruptions to their rainfall and crops?

    I’ve been comparing the 1997 jet stream to our now deformed jet steam. The reason being that if a strong el nino develops, the new jet stream and blocking would have some effect and perhaps steer some of the traditional impacts to new regions. For example with the deep dip which is now pronounced, I was pondering if the rain belt it creates would push further south.

    Also the southern jet stream would be helping steer things as well. Could be a mixed bag result in that the normals associated with el nino may be obsolete or experience anomalies.

    Reply
    • At the beginning of this event, the east west dipole for North America remains mostly intact. It would take a strong storm track to run over the Pacific high and we don’t see that yet. Possibly by winter if the El Niño is moderate to strong.

      Overall, the jet appears more disassociated during early summer than last year.

      Reply
  14. Gerald Spezio

     /  June 3, 2014

    Cut back on carbon, you say?

    On-the-ball yuppies see it otherwise.
    They want their money to GROW.

    Although the investors in the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 index have seen a return of a little more than 4 percent year-to-date, the Dubai Financial Market General Index has made over 56 percent since the start of 2014. In the past 12 months, Dubai’s index has returned more than 117 percent.

    “Dubai is really a microcosm of what we see not just in the frontier markets but in the global economy,” said Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson.

    Nigeria is another great place for seeing your money grow.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: