Ten Cubic Kilometers of Ice Lost From Jakobshavn Glacier in Less than One Month

How large is a cubic kilometer? Think of something the size of a mountain. Now multiply that by ten and you end up with a veritable mountain range. Think of it. An entire mountain range of ice. That’s a good rough comparison to the volume of ice lost from just a single Greenland glacier over the course of a mere 26 days from May 7 to June 1 of 2014.

Jakobshavn Ibrae Ice loss 2014

(Massive ice loss from Jakobsbavn glacier captured by Espen Olsen. Image source: The Arctic Ice Blog.)

For according to reports from expert sea ice observer Espen over at the scientist and ice researcher camp that is Neven’s Arctic Ice Blog, about 7.5 square kilometers over an ice face about 1,300 meters tall (when including the above and below sea level ice front) shoved off from the great Jakobshavn Ibrae glacier during the past month. It was a period of time well before peak Greenland warming and one that featured a collapse of ice into the heating ocean even larger than the epic event caught on film during the seminal documentary Chasing Ice.

The Fastest Glacier in Greenland

Flowing at a speed of 46 meters per day, Jakobshavn is currently Greenland’s fastest glacier. Containing enough ice to raise global sea levels by 1.5 feet all by itself, the glacier is one of many of the Earth’s ice giants currently in the throes of irreversible decline.

Human-warmed subtropical Atlantic waters are funneled by ocean currents to the great glacier’s base. There, the high heat capacity does serious harm to the its weak underbelly, resulting in what is now an unprecedented seaward surge.

Since the 1990s, Jakobshavn’s forward rate of motion has tripled. But according to recent scientific reports, the glacier may just be at the start of an exponential spike in velocity. For as the glacier retreats it falls into a deepening chasm that exposes its front to greater and greater volumes of the warming ocean’s waters. The warm waters deliver more heat over the glacial face as it deepens even as a multiplication of melt lakes on the surface of the inland ice provide added lubrication and buoyancy to the ice base flowing into the chasm.

Greenland Bedrock Map

(Greenland map showing location of the Jakobshavn Glacier with close view of a deep channel in the bedrock. This channel was likely carved by previous discharge and at its deepest point is now more than 1,000 meters below sea level. Image source: NASA’s Earth Observatory.)

Estimates of energy transfer from the warming ocean show that Jakobshavn could reach a speed ten times 1990s values over the coming years. Ominously, the past two month’s immense calving event has shoved a large section of glacier closer to what could best be described as a high velocity melt chamber.

Greenland — An Archipelago Covered in Ice

Unfortunately, Jakobshavn is just one of Greenland’s many giant glaciers fronting deep and long chasms stretching far into the ice interior. Recent research from NASA’s Ice Bridge project revealed numerous deep rifts plunging for scores of miles into the ice sheet. The overall picture portrayed by the new study was that of an archipelago island system locked in the grip of two mile high ice mountains and riddled with deep bedrock canyons that join in a low-lying interior basin. A geography in which there is almost nowhere for ice to hide from the severe melting stress of Earth’s human-warmed oceans.

Due to this uniquely vulnerable topography lead Ice Bridge researcher Mathieu Morlighem, a UC Irvine associate project scientist concluded that:

“The glaciers of Greenland are likely to retreat faster and farther inland than anticipated – and for much longer – according to this very different topography we’ve discovered beneath the ice. This has major implications, because the glacier melt will contribute much more to rising seas around the globe.”

Human Warming Holds Numerous Large Glacial Collapses in Store

Under the current regime of human-caused climate change, the past month’s massive glacial release is likely only to be one of many. A single event of immense scale that defies imagining. Just one in an ongoing series of violent outbursts we’ve already set lose on our world.

An event of smaller, though still enormous, size was captured on film here:

(Largest glacial calving event captured on film as excerpted from the ground-breaking documentary ‘Chasing Ice.’)

It is a film that gives us some small measure of understanding of what we’ve done and what we continue to to do. For Greenland’s entire ice edge, a region unlocking ice twenty times the volume of Jakobshavn, is now in the process of deformation and collapse all while the massive glaciers of West Antarctica are also falling into irreversible release.

Links:

(Hat-tip to Colorado Bob)

The Arctic Ice Blog

Chasing Ice

NASA’s Earth Observatory

Greenland Will Be Far Greater Contributor to Sea Level Rise Than Expected

Greenland’s Jakobshavn Glacier Revs-up With Climate Change

Nature: Human Warming Now Pushing Entire Greenland Ice Sheet into the Ocean

Grim News From NASA: West Antartica’s Entire Flank Collapsing into Southern Ocean

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266 Comments

  1. uknowispeaksense

     /  June 6, 2014

    Reblogged this on uknowispeaksense.

    Reply
  2. Reblogged this on The Secular Jurist and commented:
    “Flowing at a speed of 46 meters per day, Jakobshavn is currently Greenland’s fastest glacier. Containing enough ice to raise global sea levels by 1.5 feet all by itself, the glacier is one of many of the Earth’s ice giants currently in the throes of irreversible decline.” – Wow!

    Reply
  3. Bernard

     /  June 6, 2014

    Was that ice floating or resting on land?

    I’m trying to imagine wat a ~10^13 kg release in pressure would do to the bedrock, would it rebound?

    Reply
  4. Tom

     /  June 6, 2014

    That calving event documentary clip you showed scared the begeeziz outta me when I first saw the movie. I wish I could witness the entire 75 minutes – it must have been overwhelming to see live. Once all this ice is lost there’s no gettin’ it back in human lifetimes.
    This changes everything (in case you didn’t know). It’s just a matter of time now, and all the other factors that this type of event influences will influence still more. Antarctica just lost a big chunk too recently, so it’s all adding up a bit faster than the IPCC models or predictions.

    Bernard, i’m no geologist but I’ve read that the mantle will indeed rebound – causing earthquakes. It also puts pressure on other parts of the globe, causing plate shifting and other events [some say volcanoes are triggered when (big enough) glaciers melt away].

    Good job Robert.

    Reply
    • I am a Geologist, at least by training..

      Unloading of land due to ice melting can have some effects – earthquakes from adjustments being the biggest – and it’s just possible that unloading a volcano may bring forward an eruption that would have happened anyway. But quite frankly neither of these are huge effects, compared to the impact from melting an ice sheet in the first place.

      Reply
  5. Kevin Jones

     /  June 6, 2014

    I read years ago of Henry Hudson building a rock cairn at high tide line on the shore of the bay that bears his name. It is now several feet higher due to isostatic rebound from the loss of the great last glaciation. Some 20,000-7500years before present. Ice can ‘drop’ much faster than land can rise, is my understanding. But I am STILL trying to wrap my head around the last couple weeks of discoveries from Antarctica and Greenland. The irreversibility underway, I mean. This is a game changer for my whole outlook for this world for the rest of THIS century…..

    Reply
  6. Jay M

     /  June 6, 2014

    pretty good write up on isostatic rebound:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-glacial_rebound

    Reply
  7. Kevin Jones

     /  June 6, 2014

    I mean I knew we would loose the Arctic sea ice in my lifetime, and that would help seal Greenland’s ice cap fate, eventually. And not likely be good for anything else. The speed and synergy of all this right here right now is simply not something I expected to see….

    Reply
  8. Colorado Bob

     /  June 6, 2014

    Insurer’s Message: Prepare for Climate Change or Get Sued

    To insurance companies, there’s no doubt that climate change is here: They are beginning to file lawsuits against small towns and cities who they say haven’t prepared for the floods and storms that will cost the companies billions in payments.

    Earlier this week, the U.S. arm of a major global insurance company backed away from an unprecedented lawsuit against Chicago and its suburbs for failing to prepare for heavy rains and associated flooding it claimed were fueled by global warming. While legal experts said the case was a longshot, its withdrawal didn’t alter the message it contained for governments: prepare now for climate change or pay the price.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/insurers-message-prepare-climate-change-or-get-sued-n122856

    Reply
    • I’d say governments need to start building a case against the fossil fuel industry for damages. Insurers should probably go that route as well. It’s tougher to say a city should have been prepared when the political situation was held in limbo by oil interests, easier to gain precedent by taking on the guilty parties directly.

      Reply
      • Correct, and governments are held hostage by fossil fuel industries. Countless industry jobs maintain act like ransom and voting consumers power the whole insidious enterprise.
        That’s my somewhat jaded view.
        BTW, your timely posts are invaluable.
        Thanks, DT

        Reply
        • Total renewable industry jobs (wind, solar, hydro, biofuel, geothermal) in the US as of late 2013: 1,056,900. Total coal, oil, and gas industry jobs as of late 2013: 998,000.

          Renewables generate more than twice the number of jobs per dollar invested.

          FF jobs don’t hold US politicians hostage. It’s just the fact that the Republican Party and conservatives in general are owned lock, stock, and barrel by fossil fuel companies.

      • Bryan Stairs

         /  June 7, 2014

        Actually you are starting to see it. There have been a couple of cases in Canada already that insurers have taken cities to court and I believe won because infrastructure was not put into place to handle a weather catastrophe that if they had listened to main stream science would have told them that it WAS going to happen.
        It is my belief that governments will only make dramatic changes because the courts and financial institutions will demand it of them. Of course it will be like closing the barn door after it has already been empty.

        Reply
      • Talk about being owned by the FF companies….! This Friday our governor here in Louisiana, his royal highness (/sarcasm) Bobby Jindal, has signed a bill into law that was intended to kill a lawsuit by the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority-East to recover damages caused by oil companies’ failure to meet their obligations to restore the land or at least close the oil drilling access canals after the canals were no longer needed. It was ALSO worded vaguely enough to possibly kill all other similar lawsuits that have already been filed but no verdict has yet been reach, forestall any such future ones, and even the ongoing state and local lawsuits against BP for damages by the Macondo / Deep Horizon drilling rig “accident”.

        Reply
      • Jacob

         /  June 10, 2014

        Yes, Ed. This is a very disconcerting development. I am SMH at this madness and fear the only way it will ever be stopped is in an un-peaceful manner. Hope I’m wrong about that, but to this point all observations indicate it is an accurate conclusion to come to.

        Reply
      • @Jacob: “I am SMH at this madness and fear the only way it will ever be stopped is in an unpeaceful manner.”

        Are you thinking of World War III? Because I don’t see the American public (ditto Canadian, Australian, New Zealander, etc) will rise up against this madness anytime soon, especially if it might affect their way of life, despite the fact that most are just getting by — people are utterly dependent on the way things are.

        Reply
      • Paul from NSW

         /  June 19, 2014

        @Jacob: “I am SMH at this madness and fear the only way it will ever be stopped is in an un-peaceful manner.” – Your right, but perhaps the antagonists aren’t who you would expect.
        @Ed-M: “Are you thinking of World War III? … people are utterly dependent on the way things are.” – You right, too. I agree it won’t be the lower class rising up. But WWIII might be on its way anyway.
        The matter, in my opinion, will be driven by the Sunni – Shia conflict, whilst fought over lands containing 1/2 of the worlds supply of oil. Business as usual, and Western people in a state of utter dependency will ensure that the various factions are empowered. Arab Sunnis vs Iranian Shia, pick a side. Then watch the winner take on Israel.
        Reminds me of a koan. This stick is being used as a cane. Answer me now, which is it a stick or a cane?
        They are one and the same, you can’t pick sides. We have to throw the bloody thing away and learn to walk on our own 2 feet.
        (No-one intended as the recipient of that little rant, and no sticks were injured).

        Reply
        • @Paul, while I don’t think the Sunni-Shia conflict will set off World War III, I think the Ukraine business probably will! The goal being to surround Russia with NATO of US-friendly allies and go for the kill so that US oligarchs can exploit the methane clathrates to their heart’s content. Only thing is, Putin is in no mood to agree for encirclement of his motherland and he wants to exploit the clathrates, too, only keep the profits wholly within Mother Russia. One of these days, Russia is going to have to respond militarily to what’s going on in Ukraine and given the type of people currently running foreign affairs and defense in Washington, NATO will respond militarily, too.

  9. Checking Greenland melt extent for the 3rd. It looks like the heat from Newfoundland/Quebec is starting to bite into the ice. Once it reaches over to Greenland, it should be a fairly strong melt. Also, the melt around the edges is underway. The North East outflow has been pretty responsive now since the beginning of May, and is now picking up it’s pace.

    http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

    Reply
    • We have Fohn winds on the west facing shores. These tend to further enhance melt. So far, it’s been a rather strong melt year for Greenland.

      Reply
  10. Colorado Bob

     /  June 7, 2014

    66-Million-Year-Old Wildfire Reveals the Climate During the Last Days of the Dinosaurs

    “We were looking at the direct result of a 66-million-year-old forest fire, preserved in stone,” said Emily Bamforth, one of the researchers, in a news release. “Moreover, we now have evidence that the mean annual temperature in southern Saskatchewan was 10-12 degrees Celsius warmer than today, with almost six times as much precipitation.”

    http://www.scienceworldreport.com/articles/15235/20140606/66-million-year-old-wildfire-reveals-climate-during-last-days.htm

    Reply
  11. Reblogged this on jpratt27 and commented:
    Earth warms, ice melts, seas rise it’s just simple science.

    Reply
  12. Griffin

     /  June 7, 2014

    Great post again Robert! I have to say that my thoughts echo those of Kevin Jones, this is becoming rather exciting quickly. The acceleration of events is simply incredible.

    Reply
  13. colinc

     /  June 7, 2014

    Ten Cubic Kilometers of Ice Lost…

    How large is a cubic kilometer? Think of something the size of a mountain. Now multiply that by ten and you end up with a veritable mountain range.

    That seems a little too abstract so let’s put some real dimensions to the image. First, 1 cubic km can be visualized as a cube that is 1 km on each side or, alternatively, 1,000 meters on a side. Therefore, 10 cubic kilometers is equivalent to 10 Billion cubic meters or, for the metric-challenged, roughly 353,146,667,215 cubic feet. I recently read that the “average home” (in the USA) is now about 2,500 sq.ft. which translates to a livable volume of 20,000 cubic feet (not including attic/roof/basement). Therefore, that 10 cubic km block of ice would fill roughly 17,657,333 houses!

    Nonetheless, for those who prefer the “mountain” metaphor, let’s visualize that mountain as a regualar tetrahedron. This will result in a pyramid/mountain that has edges of 14,417 feet (2.73 mi) and a height of 11,771 feet. So, if we placed this pyramid adjacent to Pike’s Peak (Colorado Springs, CO) it would tower over that venerated landmark by more than 3,000 feet (assuming no geologic compression beneath the pyramid)! Hopefully these figures lend a little more perspective to the abstraction.

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  June 7, 2014

      “Hopefully these figures lend a little more perspective to the abstraction” Yes! Thank you Colinc, that is a very good visual for the magnitude of the event. Wow!

      Reply
    • I put the mountain metaphor in due to the simple fact that people understand mountains. Thanks for the extra mathematical detail, though.😉

      Reply
      • colinc

         /  June 7, 2014

        Of course, you’re welcome. Seems I am prone to missing “typos” in “a href-tags” and I forgot to include another figure. That tetrahedron would cover an area (the “base” being 1 “face”) of 116,191,620 sq.ft. = 4.17 sq.mi. = 46,476.6 “average homes”.

        Reply
      • colinc

         /  June 7, 2014

        Ooops, my bad and apologies to all. The correct “coverage” is 90,001,181.25 sq.ft. = 3.23 sq.mi. = 36,000.5 homes. I guess I shouldn’t do arithmetic late at night and after my second “3-fingers” of bourbon!

        Reply
  14. mikkel

     /  June 7, 2014

    I think Hansen is correct that we’re looking at 5m sea level rise by 2100. I am not entirely clear about what percentage of the world will be displaced by that, but it is obvious that if we were smart we would start relocating everyone now by building no-carbon and food integrated communities far inland. .

    Reply
    • colinc

       /  June 7, 2014

      …if we were smart…

      A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it.” – Agent K to Officer Edwards, Men in Black

      Reply
  15. Andy in Bangalore

     /  June 7, 2014

    Regarding isostatic rebound. . . In Juneau, AK structures that were at the oceans edge in 1900 are now a quarter mile inland. NOAA has a useful site, although it is not clear how often the data is updated, showing net sea level trends around the world:
    http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml

    The soil in my garden in SE AK, though well back from the beach, is underlain by a nice layer of what was formerly beach gravel of volcanic origin, which provides good drainage and a source of minerals for the plants. We are currently gaining beach frontage since our area is rising about 2mm per year. I have no illusions about long term sea level rise, but it is good for now.

    Reply
  16. Colorado Bob

     /  June 7, 2014

    Back to Greenland –

    The Peterman is the big dog. It has the deepest canyon , which runs deep into the heart of Greenland . Deeper than the Grand Canyon.

    Reply
    • And that one keeps splitting off Manhattan-sized chunks as well.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  June 7, 2014

        And it’s calving just like the Jakobshavn, but it;s at the top of Greenland.

        All our past plots are rather behind our current curve.

        Reply
        • This year has been a bit of an eye opener, hasn’t it? Pace of events keep ramping up. Glaciers aren’t so glacial anymore.

    • Dear goodness, we have 70 F temps on the shores of the Laptev now (12:48 EST).

      Reply
  17. Colorado Bob

     /  June 7, 2014

    The rebound , I was thinking it would be slow. But I was wrong..

    Reply
  18. Kevin Jones

     /  June 7, 2014

    In geology: isostacy . The planet is fighting for its’ equilibrium . And not ours.

    Reply
  19. Kevin Jones

     /  June 7, 2014

    isostasy

    Reply
  20. Kevin Jones

     /  June 7, 2014

    In 1979 the mid point of sea ice area for melt season was about 10.25 million sq. km. It is now below 9.7 million sq. km. And only 6/4/14. Albedo!

    Reply
  21. Hello Robert,

    Thanks for bringing this important information out.

    Espen

    Reply
  22. Kevin Jones

     /  June 7, 2014

    Robert. May I use this great space to invite any and all to join us on the 5th of July? http://www.nhrebellion.org/ If you go to ‘news & events’ then ‘blog’ you’ll see a new video which may be of interest. Thanks, All.

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  June 7, 2014

      Sounds good Kevin! When the Republican candidates come around before the 2016 primary, I plan to ‘bird-dog’ some of them to ask about their stance on global warming and environmental protection in general.

      Reply
  23. 1 C MAX

     /  June 7, 2014

    First time poster; outstanding blog!

    Reply
  24. 1 C MAX

     /  June 7, 2014

    Robert,

    You have covered many climate change topics in the few months that I’ve been following your blog. Almost all show troubling degradation, with many starting to accelerate the decline. Could you summarize the main trouble spots we are seeing today, never minding projections 25 years out, or in 2100? It appears to me superficially that we are seeing collapse at 0.8 C, not 2 C or 4 C. Am I over-interpreting?

    Reply
    • We certainly now see an acceleration of harmful change, although I think this trend began in the early to mid 2000s and is just becoming more clear now.

      As for the request for a broad summary, that’s probably worthy of a rather significant blog post. Since it’s probably needed, I’ll start working on it this weekend.

      Thanks for the helpful insights and suggestions.

      Reply
  25. Gerald Spezio

     /  June 7, 2014

    Los Angeles uses about 190 billion gallons of water per year, most of it pumped at tremendous energy cost – the largest energy consumption in CA.
    There are 264 billion gallons in a cu. km.
    Total water use in LA = about three fourths of one cu km per year.

    Reply
    • Another excellent comparison. Very much liking the added context.

      Reply
      • climatehawk1

         /  June 8, 2014

        I like it too. Would also be helpful to have 1) gallons, 2) acre-feet, and maybe a comparison to one of the Great Lakes. I will poke around a bit and see what I can come up with.

        Reply
      • climatehawk1

         /  June 9, 2014

        So, answer appears to be 1) roughly 2.5 trillion gallons, 2) 7.7 million acre-feet, and roughly 2% of Lake Erie.

        Reply
  26. Kevin Jones

     /  June 7, 2014

    Gerald Speaking of Energy, may I recommend Richard Heinberg’s : IEA Says the Party is Over. http://www.postcarbon.org/

    Reply
  27. Spike

     /  June 7, 2014

    Reducing deforestation in the tropics could cut carbon dioxide emissions by up to one-fifth, a university study shows.
    In the first study of its kind, scientists have calculated the amount of carbon absorbed by the world’s tropical forests and the amounts of greenhouse gas emissions created by loss of trees, as a result of human activity.

    http://www.ed.ac.uk/news/2014/060614-tropics

    I sort of visualise a new iceberg calving for each tree that comes crashing down.

    Reply
  28. Bryan Stairs

     /  June 7, 2014

    I have too many friends who either believe things are going really bad really fast and are quiet about it as the loudest voices are denialists or are the denialists themselves. Ands even if you get them to admit there could be a problem, government will rescue them.
    I give them one example. Can the USA build a dike big enough to save every city that is going to flooded on the eastern seaboard? Do they truely understand the costs and time it would take to do that?
    I look at the forecasts for Greenland and Antarctica and then I compare that to what was said about the Arctic 10 years ago. The same reasoning was used about those who came up with the worst case scenarios and look what happened. Our knowledge about ice is truely so bad that the reality …….

    Reply
  29. Gerald Spezio

     /  June 7, 2014

    Today;
    “Ten Cubic Kilometers of Ice Lost From Jakobshavn Glacier in Less than One Month.”
    “Dear goodness, we have 70 F temps on the shores of the Laptev now (12:48 EST).”
    …and it’s only June

    On June 3rd;
    “That’s an area of ice the size of Nevada lost in a single 24 hour period.”
    …and it’s only June

    Reply
    • For the June 3 reference, it’s worth noting that sea ice melt is most rapid typically in mid June. At that point, we tend to hit a cliff as Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay rapidly melt out. This year, the rapid melt is coming early due to weather conditions in the Laptev causing a highly anomalous loss of ice there.

      The rate of loss for June 2 was probably among the fastest in the area record.

      Reply
  30. Kevin Jones

     /  June 7, 2014

    USCGC Healy in very weak ice. http:icefloe.net/Aloftconn Photos/

    Reply
  31. Kevin Jones

     /  June 7, 2014

    icefloe.net/Aloftcon_Photos/ …hope this works

    Reply
  32. Colorado Bob

     /  June 8, 2014

    Afghanistan flash floods kill more than 70 in north

    KUNDUZ: Flash floods have killed more than 70 people in northern Afghanistan, washing away hundreds of homes and forcing thousands to flee, officials said Saturday warning that the death toll was expected to rise.
    The floods in a remote mountainous district of Baghlan province come a month after a landslide triggered by heavy rains buried a village and killed 300 people in a nearby region.

    http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/region/08-Jun-2014/afghanistan-flash-floods-kill-more-than-70-in-north

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  June 8, 2014

      Those rains must have been ferocious. Certainly the effects cannot be dismissed as “well they built on a floodplain”. I would venture a guess that a people who’s ties to the agricultural world run deeper than the average westerner would tend to be aware of flood prone area’s and avoid them. No FEMA there after all, but still they have fallen victim to the incredible amount of rain our atmosphere is now capable of dumping on a given location.

      Reply
  33. Colorado Bob

     /  June 8, 2014

    Paraguay floods continue
    Thousands continue to struggle with aftermath of heavy rains and overflowing rivers.

    Torrential rains have forced the evacuation of more than 75,000 people across Paraguay. There has been widespread flooding which has disrupted the lives of those located in low-lying areas near the Paraguay River.

    The Paraguay weather service said the heavy rains started in February with 221mm falling on the capital of Asuncion in just one day. The rainy season runs until the end of May, but the bad weather has continued into June.

    http://www.aljazeera.com/weather/2014/06/paraguay-floods-continue-20146695648383723.html

    Reply
  34. Griffin

     /  June 8, 2014

    And to think that the expected rise in atmospheric temps that would accompany an El Nino event would mean an even higher water content possibly held aloft. We are simply not prepared for what can happen to us even today. Never mind the end of the century!

    Reply
  35. Phil

     /  June 8, 2014

    Seems to be alot of fog in the arctic – be interesting to see if it is the ice eating type. Extent does not seem to be dropping too rapidly and the latest of 628 square KM’s seems somewhat baffling and generally starting to produce debate on Arctic Sea Ice Forum. Seems Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay, in particular, might be lagging a bit. Not sure if satellite pictures are bringing any further clarity to what is actually happening.

    Will be interesting to see what eventuates this week.

    Reply
    • The difference between area and extent is a bit baffling in the measures. That large hole in the Laptev just keeps growing. Baffin is on its final drop for the season.

      Reply
  36. 1 C MAX

     /  June 8, 2014

    “As for the request for a broad summary, that’s probably worthy of a rather significant blog post. Since it’s probably needed, I’ll start working on it this weekend.”

    That would be very helpful. I read four or five climate blogs daily, and I am finding inconsistencies and disconnects among 1) where we need to go, 2) where we are now, and 3) what we need to do that will take us from where we are to where we need to go. The blog that appears to focus most on where we need to go is David Spratt’s ClimateCodeRed. His most recent posting (http://www.climatecodered.org/) suggests there is no more room for additional CO2 emissions, and his previous monograph (http://www.climatecodered.org/p/is-climate-change-already-dangerous.html) suggests that climate change is dangerous now. The blog that appears to contain the most comprehensive summary of where we are now is Guy McPherson’s Climate-Change Summary and Update (http://guymcpherson.com/2013/01/climate-change-summary-and-update/). There is much detail presented especially on the positive feedbacks we are experiencing now. However, the overall tone is one of hopelessness, and I question whether that influences the selection of data.

    Given the inconsistencies especially of where we need to go, there is a plethora of different approaches recommended on the different blogs. If Spratt’s sources on where we need to go are correct, it’s difficult for me to see how the pure low carbon technology substitutions recommended on most of the blogs can provide the emission and concentration reductions required. I’m hoping you can offer some clarity to this situation.

    Reply
    • colinc

       /  June 8, 2014

      You are quite correct that there are “inconsistencies and disconnects.” Indeed, there is a veritable cornucopia of them. There are, of course, a multitude of “reasons” for this situation. Obviously and oft reported are the “monied interests” wishing to maintain the status quo who gladly pay people to deny and obfuscate any and all “real” science. Regardless, a less noted reason is that the “best and brightest” are not necessarily the ones who rise to positions of authority and/or power. I’m sure most “educated and reasonable” people understand that not every website (blog or otherwise) or book/paper is hosted/authored by “experts.” For example, Dr. Stephen Chu once suggested that roofs be painted white to “restore albedo.” This exemplifies a failed understanding that the climate we know and love depends on WHERE the “primary” reflectivity is, i.e. the Arctic, not just the “quantity.”. Painting roofs white around the world in densely populated regions would have a significant impact on weather patterns (climate), as much as GHGs, and it would NOT necessarily be “good.”

      You comment that on NBL “the overall tone is one of hopelessness, and I question whether that influences the selection of data.” I would suggest that you have that wrong way around. If you were to attentively read the entirety of your last cited link and peruse a handful (or more) of the links Dr. McPherson provides you may come to realize that the preponderance of his aggregated data precipitates the “hopelessness.” Personally, I only find disagreement with Guy, as well as Dr. Kevin Anderson, David Wasdell, Sam Carana, and virtually everyone else, in one significant aspect… they are ALL way too optimistic. After all, they primarily focus on climate/weather “conditions” with nary a mention of the knock-on effects to which I’ve alluded in my reply to Griffin below.

      Reply
    • In my opinion Guy McPherson is not a reliable guide in this matter, far too often I’ve found that his sources don’t say what he says they do. He’s like a climate denier in reverse cherry picking data to suit his position of doom.

      David Spratt I think is far better. Oh and Robert here as well🙂

      Reply
      • climatehawk1

         /  June 10, 2014

        Agreed. I personally think the facts are scary enough, for anyone who is listening and actually trying to understand them.

        Reply
      • Apneaman

         /  June 11, 2014

        Never heard of David Spratt, before, so I checked him out. He don’t sound too hopeful either. Neither did the late Frank Fenner.

        http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/frank-fenner-sees-no-hope-for-humans/story-e6frgcjx-1225880091722

        Reply
      • colinc

         /  June 11, 2014

        todaysguest, you say “… far too often I’ve found that his sources don’t say what he says they do.” I’m curious, which particular sources have you found to be incongruent with Guy’s assertions. I’ll admit I haven’t checked all of his sources but, of the ones that I have (more than 90% over the past 5 years), I have found no disagreement. Of course, few, if any, of Guy’s sources concur with his conclusion. In fact, I also disagree with his conclusion in that I think he is overly optimistic. To borrow from Colorado Bob’s frequent refrain (from The Outlaw Josey Wales) “Hell is coming to breakfast little lady”… and it will be staying for lunch, dinner, late night snacks and beyond the foreseeable future.

        Reply
  37. Colorado Bob

     /  June 8, 2014

    Sea star wasting syndrome epidemic along the coast
    Trinidad sees 80 percent population decline from mysterious disease

    Oregon was one of the only areas on the West Coast that had remained relatively free of the disease up to this point, but a recent outbreak there has “created an epidemic of historic magnitude” that “threatens to decimate Oregon’s entire population of purple ochre sea stars,” according to a report by Oregon State University science writer David Stauth.

    “This is an unprecedented event,” said Bruce Menge, professor of marine biology at OSU. “We’ve never seen anything of this magnitude before. We have no clue what’s causing this epidemic, how severe the damage might be or how long that damage might last. It’s very serious. Some of the sea stars most heavily affected are keystone predators that influence the whole diversity of life in the intertidal zone.”

    http://www.times-standard.com/localnews/ci_25922918/sea-star-wasting-syndrome-epidemic-along-coast

    Reply
  38. Colorado Bob

     /  June 8, 2014

    North India sizzles under blistering heat, Nowgong records 47.8 degree Celsius

    http://ibnlive.in.com/news/north-india-sizzles-under-blistering-heat-nowgong-records-478-degree-celsius/477640-3.html

    Reply
  39. Colorado Bob

     /  June 8, 2014

    El Niño Odds Raised to 70% by NOAA, But El Niño is Actually Imminent
    By: Michael Ventrice , 2:36 PM GMT on June 07, 2014

    Today’s guest blog post is by Dr. Michael Ventrice, an operational scientist for the Energy team at Weather Services International (WSI). This is a follow-up post to the ones he did on February 21 and April 4 on the progress of El Niño. Today’s post is quite technical! – Jeff Masters

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2694

    Reply
    • Sea surface states, as noted here, do seem to support that assessment.

      OT – I feel happy every time Anthony Watts attacks me (quite a lot today).

      Reply
      • Apneaman

         /  June 8, 2014

        I hope Anthony is enjoying the glow of the denier spot light. I wonder if he thinks the Rex Tillerson’s and James Inhofe’s will protect him when millions of angry, suffering Americans start demanding vengeance? No, what will happen to Anthony and the other tools of the elite is they will scapegoat him. They will turn their PR machine on him. It’s always been done that way.

        Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  June 8, 2014

        OT – I feel happy every time Anthony Watts attacks me (quite a lot today).

        Silly wabbit.

        Reply
  40. Colorado Bob

     /  June 8, 2014

    The supply of safe water in Syria is now one-third of the level it was before March 2011 when the civil war began, Unicef said Friday in a report that warns of new levels of suffering because of a worsening regional drought. The report said the 9.6 million Syrians affected by the conflict, half of them children, are at increased risk of disease because the water scarcity has compounded problems caused by damage to water and sewage systems. Parts of Syria have received the lowest levels of rainfall in more than half a century, the report said, and most parts of the country have only received half the average rainfall of a normal year. The drought also threatens to put new pressures on Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq, where Syrian refugees are already straining the water supply.

    Link

    Reply
    • I think it’s fair to say that the drought in Syria is now essentially generational. Whole groups won’t even remember a time without these worsening conditions. Our delaying transition away from fossil fuels caused this.

      Reply
  41. Griffin

     /  June 8, 2014

    I thought of your mentioned upcoming report on current impacts when I read this Robert.
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/india-riots-sparked-by-heat-wave-power-outages-1.2668358

    Reply
  42. Mark from New England

     /  June 8, 2014

    More news from the world of “Extreme (Fossil) Energy”:

    ‘Conclusive Link’ Between Fracking, Aquifer Contamination Found in Texas’ – Scientists say water samples from Texas man’s well show identical chemical signatures from nearby gas drilling operations.

    I realize it’s a ‘duh’ type of study, but as someone commenting there pointed out, the people fighting fracking in their backyards need scientific studies to make their claims credible, otherwise the gas and oil companies can just obfuscate forever.

    http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2014/06/06-1

    Reply
    • It’s good to see landowners/farmers/residents getting scientific proofs to back their water contamination observations. Sad to see that base evidence alone isn’t enough.

      Reply
  43. Griffin

     /  June 8, 2014

    I have always tried to tell those that I argue with that the biggest threat is not the weather itself, but the negative human reaction to the weather making life difficult. Our track record as a species is not a good one.

    Reply
    • colinc

       /  June 8, 2014

      Indeed, “human reactions” are a significant cause for concern. However, those will be secondary effects. (Unless, of course, one of them is global, thermonuclear war.) As noted above and earlier, in a few places around the world and outside the “good ol’ USofA,” water and electric power are becoming less and less reliable. Anyone believing those maladies won’t soon happen in this country (USA) hasn’t been paying attention. So, food for thought, what happens when automated safety systems, which require and depend on uninterrupted electricity, fail? What “safety systems” do I mean? Consider those at refineries, chemical manufacturers (remember Bhopal and Pepcon?), pharmaceutical plants, anywhere that uses high-temperature/pressure systems and, wait for it, bio-hazard level 4 facilities, just to name a few. What happens when water-treatment facilities shutdown permanently? It matters not whether electricity is produced by turbines in dams or at fossil-fuel fired facilities, when the water is gone, so is the electric and no one in the afflicted regions will be going anywhere and won’t be much of a “problem” for long. Of course, the tertiary, “final straw,” effect will be when dozens, perhaps tens of dozens, of Fukushimas blossom around the country and the world.

      Reply
  44. Reblogged this on Nick Robson's Blog.

    Reply
  45. Colorado Bob

     /  June 9, 2014

    Siberia is warming faster than anywhere in the world, warns top Russian geophysicist

    Siberia is associated around the world with cold but it is now the capital of global warming, says distinguished Russian meteorological authority Valentin Meleshko, former head of St Petersburg-based Voyeikov Geophysical Observatory.

    One impact will be even more snow in winter leading to excessive flooding in late spring and early summer, as seen last year in the devastating submerging of vast tracts of the Far East of Russia.

    ‘The process of warming in Siberia goes faster than elsewhere; it is not just hypothesis, there is data and observational evidence to prove it. Siberia is warming faster than any other place in the world,’ Mr Meleshko told the The Siberian Times.

    ‘In theory we can delineate the influence of anthropogenic (manmade) factors and natural changes. For the last 30 years, we have seen the significant reduction of ice cover in the Arctic and we can observe significant warming there. It reduced by about 30%’.

    http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/opinion/news/siberia-is-warming-faster-than-anywhere-in-the-world-warns-top-russian-geophysicist/

    Reply
  46. Colorado Bob

     /  June 9, 2014

    Study: Alaska’s future looks more rainy, less snowy

    Alaskans of the future might have to stock up on ice cleats and endure disappointing snow seasons. A newly published study calculates the degrees to which precipitation falling from the sky will be rain instead of snow, a transformation expected over the rest of the 21st century as the far north climate warms.

    The study, published in the June issue of the journal Hydrological Processes, uses a model based on decades of weather data from around the state. It applies the derived calculations of past temperature and precipitation to a suite of well-respected climate-prediction models used by the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

    The result is a range of forecasts for future precipitation mixtures around Alaska, with snowy seasons expected to become more rainy.

    Read more here: Link

    Reply
  47. Colorado Bob

     /  June 9, 2014

    Climate change at the Arctic’s edge

    A ticking circumpolar time bomb is set to release more greenhouse gases than everything humanity has put into the atmosphere since the industrial revolution: what happens if permafrost loses its permanence? A field report from the frontlines.

    Link

    Reply
    • james cole

       /  June 10, 2014

      That is the kind of positive feedback that people talked about being something for the late 21st century at earliest. Just a few years ago the science reports were all about arctic sea ice being in danger in 50-100 years. Reality is smacking us all in the face, we were way too conservative, I call it wishful thinking. Everyone found it easy to push these effects off to a time when it was a future generation of people who would face it. Now we know, it is here and we in the present generations are going to be around to see global warming in all it’s disaster. This only makes me wonder how awfully bad it will be in 50 years. Imagine, we are not slowing down, we are picking up speed and we are decades ahead of schedule. Who would care to predict what weather and climate will be in 50 years? At the present rate, 50 years from now will see a global melt down and human disaster.

      Reply
      • Mark from New England

         /  June 10, 2014

        Yep, it’s scary all right.

        Reply
      • Apneaman

         /  June 10, 2014

        I’m thinking 5 years, James. When peak oil and financial crash meet climate change.

        Reply
  48. Colorado Bob

     /  June 9, 2014

    Letter from Serbia: we are drowning in a flood of censorship

    Serbia has been battered by two storms: first there were mass floods; then a wave of terrifying Internet censorship, which has included denial-of-service attacks, arrests over Facebook discussions of the flood casualties, and ISPs mysteriously shuttering websites critical of the government. We’re proud to present an open letter from BlogOpen-BlogClosed, announcing a netcast strategy conference on Tuesday, June 10 at 1PM CET.

    http://boingboing.net/2014/06/08/letter-from-serbia-we-are-dro.html

    Reply
  49. Colorado Bob

     /  June 9, 2014

    Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Sermeq Kujalleq / Ilulissat Icefjord
    « Reply #224 on: June 08, 2014, 09:56:49 PM »

    Believe it or not Jakobshavn continues its massive calvings:

    Please click on image to start animation!

    https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,154.msg27935.html#msg27935

    Reply
  50. On Sunday, the maximum temperature in Delhi hit 47.8 degree Celsius (118.04 Fahrenheit) – a record high in 62 years, according to India Meteorological Department. Forecasters expected average temperatures of 45 degree Celsius (113 Fahrenheit) for the rest of the week.

    Temperatures soared to 47 degrees Celsius (117 Fahrenheit) in the city of Lucknow causing power demand to spike at 11,000 megawatts – much greater than the state’s capacity of 8,000 MW capacity – which triggered blackouts that shut down water pumps, air conditioners and fans.

    Palam registered its hottest at 47.2 degrees on Friday. In Patiala, Punjab, the mercury soared to 45.6 degrees while in Amritsar and Ludhiana it went up to 45.5 degrees—four degrees above normal.

    In Chandigarh, too, this is the hottest summer in years, recording 44.5 degrees, five degrees above normal.

    Gone are the days when people fled the heat to the hill stations; in Shimla, the maximum temperature was 30.7 degrees Celsius, six degrees above normal. In Kullu it was 36.5 degrees and Dharamsala, the Dalai Lama’s followers would be sweating it out at 35.4 degrees. Even Manali sweltered under 27.2 degrees.

    Meanwhile, the temperature in North India has been recorded over 45 degree Celsius.

    Furthermore, states like Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh may face drought.

    With all of the heat in the north, the Himalayas may be taking a hit on their snow pack.

    Hoping that Andy in Bangalore is OK in all of this.

    Reply
  51. Colorado Bob

     /  June 9, 2014

    Siberia is known for its winter cold: will it soon be as famous for its summer floods?
    By The Siberian Times reporter08 June 2014
    More flooding misery due to burst dam as experts say the cause is global warming.

    http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/siberia-is-known-for-its-winter-cold-will-it-soon-be-as-famous-for-its-summer-floods/

    Reply
  52. Colorado Bob

     /  June 9, 2014

    The day the ice cap died

    The title of this blog post is actually the title of a piece of science fiction, a short story written by Paul Briggs. Just like a couple of weeks ago when I was asked for advice on an idea for a novel, Paul asked me for some feedback on his short story. I figured posting it here, will generate a lot more feedback than I can offer. And most of you will probably find it an interesting read.

    Paul writes on his website:

    Link

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  June 10, 2014

      Wow – what a compelling future scenario! I hope this is widely read. Thanks Colorado Bob for brining it to our attention.

      Reply
      • I found “The Day the Ice Cap Died” well worth reading, as well. It has a lot of nice sociopolitical detail. Reminded me quite a bit of Brunner’s apocalyptic work.

        Reply
        • climatehawk1

           /  June 10, 2014

          Huh, good point. Here’s a nice quote I remember from Brunner’s “A Torrent of Faces” (about an impending medium-sized asteroid strike on Earth): “No, we shall not all die. But we shall all be changed.”

      • Mark from New England

         /  June 11, 2014

        Miep or Climatehawk1 – can you remind me of Brunner’s first name? Is it Paul?

        I’d like to check out some of his work. I may have read one of his novels Long ago, but am not sure. Any recommendations on where to start?

        Reply
        • climatehawk1

           /  June 11, 2014

          Mark, Brunner’s first name is John. It’s been a long time since I read anything of his, and the only two novels I can call to mind are “A Torrent of Faces” and “Stand on Zanzibar.” Both seem relevant to this discussion.

        • “The Sheep Look Up” is the sequel to “Stand On Zanzibar.” It’s especially grim.

  53. Gerald Spezio

     /  June 9, 2014

    Sam Carana has just posted this update of the prescient predictions of both Shakhova & Semelitov at ARCTIC NEWS June 9, 2014

    Methane

    Temperature rises of the water close to the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean are very dangerous, as heat can penetrate sediments and cause hydrate destabilization. Huge amounts of methane are held in sediments at the seafloor, in the form of free gas and hydrates. In shallow waters, methane released from the seafloor can more easily enter the atmosphere without getting broken down by microbes in the water.

    Methane levels are already very high. On June 6, 2014, mean global methane reached levels as high as 1809 ppb, with peaks as high as 2516 ppb.

    Methane release from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean will warm up the Arctic even further, triggering even more methane releases, heatwaves, wildfires and further feedbacks, in a spiral of runaway warming, threatening to cause starvation, destruction and extintion at massive scale across the globe.

    Reply
  54. Gerald Spezio

     /  June 9, 2014

    A succinct blurb from Colorado Bob’s non-fiction circumpolar time bomb link above.

    Abrupt permafrost methane release combined with the abrupt release of gigatons from the Arctic Sea bed should make for some interesting non-fiction science.

    If this doesn’t make all else appear petty, you must be watching t.v.

    Could it get any worse on the climate change front?

    Of course — but few are aware of the most likely scenario under which things might truly unravel: the sudden release of gigatons of powerful greenhouse gasses due to rapid loss of sub-polar permafrost. It may not be as visible or as sexy as a fracturing ice sheet, but the process of millions of square kilometres of previously frozen muskeg becoming dangerously squishy is likewise well underway. And, as many in the field maintain, now equally irreversible.

    Woe is me, you, & all the fishes in the sea., Mama.

    Reply
  55. Gerald Spezio

     /  June 9, 2014

    MUSKEG?
    Muskeg is an acidic soil type common in Arctic and boreal areas, although it is found in other northern climates as well. Muskeg is approximately synonymous with bogland, but muskeg is the standard term in Western Canada and Alaska, while ‘bog’ is common elsewhere. The term became common in these areas because it is of Cree origin; maskek (ᒪᐢᑫᐠ) meaning low-lying marsh.[1] Large tracts of this soil existing in Siberia may be called muskeg or bogland interchangeably.

    Muskeg consists of dead plants in various states of decomposition (as peat), ranging from fairly intact sphagnum moss, to sedge peat, to highly decomposed humus. Pieces of wood can make up five to 15 percent of the peat soil. Muskeg tends to have a water table near the surface. The sphagnum moss forming it can hold 15 to 30 times its own weight in water, allowing the spongy wet muskeg to form on sloping ground. Muskeg patches are ideal habitats for beavers, pitcher plants, agaric mushrooms and a variety of other organisms.

    Reply
  56. Andy in Bangalore

     /  June 10, 2014

    Starting yesterday the weather cooled significantly and daytime highs are 30-31 C. No rain in the forecast for the next 10 days.

    Anyone else see the articles on the front page of Desdemona this am (India time)? The collapse of ecosystems is accelerating.

    Reply
    • I remember reading many years ago that the upper limit for CO2 was something like 350, then was bumped up to 375, and so on. I don’t have reference to those limits and when they were, and I almost don’t believe myself now as we keep getting pounded by the “new number” until we get too close to it (then bump it up again). I wish I had kept numbers and rough dates, but that is 20/20 hind sight.

      I believe this is done to keep populations under control. Humans would be less docile if told “you screwed the pooch, you’ve gone beyond the limit. Now we’ll see ecology get wrecked, your crops will die and so will a bunch of you”.

      I suspect we’ll be seeing more mollification to keep populations from reacting as a group. But it may become more and more difficult to keep the charade working.

      Reply
    • utoutback

       /  June 10, 2014

      Apneaman
      Thank you for this interesting and enlightening review of how invested parties (govts., individuals and corporations) co-opted the climate change discussions and led us into our present cul-de-sac.
      At this point I respond to people who ask me about climate change, that I view it as “natural history” with humanity being no different than an ant hill or community of kelp (or perhaps bacteria). The fact that we have a brain hasn’t seemed to make a difference to our continued focus on short term self interest. While some of us our outliers, I have come to believe our species still functions from “fight or flight” reactionary responses. Thus proactive behavior takes a back seat to short term profit, mitigation/adaptation and crisis management.
      Sigh.

      Reply
  57. Baker

     /  June 10, 2014

    Would you like to write about the heavy heatwave and thunderstorms in Central Europe? Measures in south-western Germany climbed up to 100°F (e.g. city of Karlsruhe – hottest day in June on record, since 1876). Yesterday there was a MCC with bow echo, quite rare here, with destructive downbursts up to 150 km/h in Düsseldorf and other complexes the days before with large hail near Brussels and Paris… It still continues today and tomorrow.. see http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27776189

    Reply
  58. Gerald Spezio

     /  June 10, 2014

    Apneaman, I followed your direction to Cory Morningstar & was flabbergasted by her depth & insight – most of it done 3 to 4 years ago.

    In January 2011 she told us much.

    http://thebiggestlieevertold.wordpress.com/2011/01/17/the-real-weapons-of-mass-destruction-methane-propaganda-the-architects-of-genocide-part-iii/

    I’ve been banned by flying CO2 spewing yuppie hypocrite Guy McPherson.

    Flying for “grief counseling” for Chrissake, Guy.

    Reply
  59. I shudder as I think of the poetic karma of the third item on the list of GHG sources. Fore behind CO2 and methane is nitrogen, azote… the absence if life.
    az•ote
    [az-oht, ey-zoht, uh-zoht]
    noun Chemistry .
    nitrogen.
    Origin:
    1785–95; < French < Greek ázōtos ungirt, taken to mean lifeless

    "Nitrogen fertilizer can contribute to greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural fields. This, in turn, can impact the climate and cause temperatures to warm. These fertilizers spur gas emissions by stimulating microbes in the soil to produce more nitrous oxide, which is the third most important greenhouse gas behind carbon dioxide and methane. In addition, it also destroys stratospheric ozone.
    In all, agriculture accounts for about 80 percent of human-caused nitrous oxide emissions worldwide. These emissions have increased significantly in recent years, mostly due to nitrogen fertilizer use…"
    http://www.scienceworldreport.com/articles/15312/20140610/nitrogen-based-fertilizer-impacts-climate-much-agriculture.htm

    Reply
  60. Does anyone have any information on the median cumulative annual ice addition to the Greenland ice sheet? I’ve looked around and haven’t seen anything on it. I’m curious as to how much this discharge calving accounts for (in terms of annual accumulation).

    Reply
  61. Paul from NSW

     /  June 11, 2014

    Would someone have a look at this and give comment
    http://preppingforexile.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/oxygen.html
    I know that for a lot of people the view is that this is a terminal event, but I am of the opinion that if we can plan for a colony on Mars then we should be able to survive here … with appropriate planning.
    The important thing is to be prepared for what we are able to foresee coming. So that is what I am trying to do, for my kids sake.

    Reply
    • Doug

       /  June 11, 2014

      “I don’t want to live on Mars” is a recent Ziggy Marley song. I think we ought to listen to him.

      But, I do think the elite (billionaire) club is starting the early phases of planning an exodus off Earth, as far fetched as that sounds to some people. I am afraid that energies and dollars will be put to this immoral idea, instead of directing it towards making this a livable world. I think these people need to be stopped. If we can’t even keep this planet livable for us, we have no right exporting the virus that we are, to other worlds. If we can’t fix things down here, we deserve to go extinct. And the rich capatalist assholes who are more responsible for creating global warming than anyone else, should above all else not be allowed a chance at colonizing space.

      Reply
      • Apneaman

         /  June 11, 2014

        I say let em go and good fuckin riddance. I bet it would be fun just listening to the worlds richest egos arguing over who gets to ride shotgun.

        Reply
    • Tom

       /  June 11, 2014

      Paul: I don’t think there’s any prepping (that will be effective) for what’s coming. Loss of habitat will make life impossible in the near future for us and most everything else that’s living (heat, climate change and radiation, not to mention the chemistry of the atmosphere, soil and oceans, which are all out of balance, will create conditions intolerable to life).

      Live now and as long as you can, but realize the very way we live – all of the systems we’ve put in place to foster human development – has depleted our host and that our time is almost up (because we failed to heed the warnings of scientists, philosophers, writers, artists and some spiritual people to become stewards of the planet and live in balance with it all, and now it’s too late and we can’t get it back).

      Reply
      • Paul from NSW

         /  June 12, 2014

        Prepping is perhaps a limited term as culturally it has gained a connotation of an individual or a family unit preparing for some temporary disaster. Obviously what we are facing is far beyond that, though I lack an appropriate word for what is required.

        As far as philosophers and writers go, Asimov, in my opinion, is the pinnacle for SF. The foundation series had the planet Trantor with melted ice caps. The people lived in underground cities, nutrients provided by highly developed algae farms. Power came from geo-thermal and nuclear options. I would add solar panels and electrolysis to produce hydrogen.
        I agree that we can’t get it back, but we can adapt.

        Reply
    • pintada

       /  June 11, 2014

      Paul from NSW:

      The amount of O2 in the air is pretty much out of our individual control especially when it comes to preparation/survivalism. I have HEPA filters for the smokey days that we have here every summer now, but that is another matter entirely. Also, humans can live at very high altitude – 18,000 feet – so by the time there is so little O2 in the atmosphere that people can’t live …. Actually, I’ll bet you that we would be just fine if the O2 did go to 10% (all things being equal which of course they wouldn’t be).

      Part of prepping is determining what we are worried about, and what we can do. If the problem is vast and deadly (e.g. a big astroid, or if the arctic methane clathrates all melt ) there is no point in even considering it. Just find a nice place to watch.

      I am preparing for 4C and the concomitant issues. I don’t have time for O2 depletion (not gonna be an issue), chem trails (not real), government (irrelevant if you keep your head down), sea level rise (I live in the mountains).

      Tom may be perfectly correct – and it is his choice to play the grasshopper. For all we know that might be the “winning” strategy.

      Reply
    • pintada

       /  June 11, 2014

      Paul from NSW said: “… if we can plan for a colony on Mars then we should be able to survive here … with appropriate planning.”

      Sorry, gotta disagree with that statement.
      If present trends continue (and why wouldn’t they) the Arctic Ocean will melt, and then sufficient methane clathrates will melt to recreate conditions like the PETM.

      [We have pumped about 1000 Gt C as CO2 already.]

      (see summaries in Panchuk et al. 2008; Zeebe et al. 2009). These authors show that one can account for the changes [creating the PETM] by invoking the addition of about 3000–6000 Gt C as CO2, in the range of estimates from d13C.

      “Zeebe et al. (2009) worked backward, using the changes in carbonate compensation depth and seawater d13C to calculate the magnitude of the CO2 release and its d13C. They calculated a magnitude of 3000 Gt C …”

      [BUT, if you are dumping in CH4 the tonnage required is greatly reduced]

      “… cause CH4 to be released to seawater. The observed d13C change at the onset of the PETM limits the resulting C flux to 1300–3300 Gt C,

      “… the modern CH4 hydrate reservoir contains 8000–15,000 Gt C; the Paleocene reservoir would have been smaller because
      methane hydrates are less stable when ocean temperatures are warmer. …”

      [The result in the PETM was profound and not survivable. And we are doing it much faster.]
      “… over which CO2 was added, extending from the previous d13C baseline to the time of minimum d13C, has been estimated to be about 10,000 years. The duration of the entire PETM is thought to have been about 200 Kyr. …”

      “The temperature rise seems to have been about 5C in the tropics and 8C at high latitudes, with considerable uncertainty. Warming in the deep sea, inferred from the d18O of benthic forams, was typically about 5C (Nunes and Norris 2006).”

      “… temperatures in the tropics reached simulated values of
      35–40C or more, is a task for future research.”

      [If so, then the wet bulb temp of 35C which we cannot survive was the minimum AVERAGE in the tropics for 200,000 years. ]

      Bender, Michael L. (2013-08-25). Paleoclimate (Princeton Primers in Climate). Princeton University Press.

      So, with proper planning, one would set up an underground bunker where you would raise all your food, manufacture all the clothing you would need, generate electricity for lighting, manufacture replacement light bulbs, etc.. And you (and your decedents) would live there for 200,000 years.

      Nah.

      Reply
      • Paul from NSW

         /  June 12, 2014

        I replied, but I think I had too many links so it got sent to moderation purgatory.
        I’ll try again
        Hi Pintaba, interesting comment.
        As rapidly as this is occurring it will not be instantaneous. Therefore, with adequate planning we can adapt.

        From my understanding the PETM resulted in dwarfism in mammals (http://westerndigs.org/global-warming-caused-dwarfism-in-ancient-american-mammals-fossils-show/), 30% in fact, not the annihilation of all mammals. We have the biotechnology, or will have soon, to select (or mutate) for dwarfism. If that is possible, then humans could adapt. Here are 2 examples where humans have evolved to suit different environments;
        Homo Floresiensis. Dwarf primitive people. Just for arguments sake I am going to take the average height of females at 167cm, LB1 was 110cm. That is 65%, damn close to the 30% reduction mentioned earlier.
        The Yaghan indians. These, on the other hand, evolved to handle colder temperatures through a metabolism change. I think they were first documented by Darwin.

        Secondly the way I see it, a re-occurrence of the PETM would result in areas that are inhospitable to humans, but not all. At 3C (the beginning, not the end), you have large areas that would be inhospitable, in summer. Anybody not prepared would have little chance of surviving. So they will migrate.
        Initially those areas (Southern Chile, Antartica, Greenland etc) that are survivable in a heat events would be very violent and dangerous places. Given the over population, lack of skills, infrastructure, poor soil and resources it would be hell on Earth.
        However, a society that had prepared, was structured, and was willing to wait would ultimately be rewarded, without firing a shot. At 4-6C, then it is time to move, depending on the community’s location.

        If, while being fully forewarned, we condemn our children, that to me is unacceptable. But I will be the first to admit, we can’t do it alone.

        Reply
      • pintada

         /  June 12, 2014

        Hi Paul;

        >> “I replied, but I think I had too many links so it got sent to moderation purgatory. I’ll try again”

        Yes, there are some strange things that happen in the WordPress world. For example, i can comment on my own comment, but i cannot comment on yours. No worries.

        >> “As rapidly as this is occurring it will not be instantaneous. Therefore, with adequate planning we can adapt.”

        Yes indeed it is in fact a geologic process and so will take time. In fact, re-reading Bender to make the previous post gave me some useful perspective again. I wish you had said, “with adequate planning [and a little luck] … “. But yes, it isn’t hopeless.

        >> “We have the biotechnology, or will have soon, to select (or mutate) for dwarfism.”

        This is where we get off the same page. You appear to be (if i may read between the lines a bit) making the mistake of focusing on AGW and not considering the other issues that we face. The continued march of technology is not assured – in fact, continued technological “progress” beyond 2020 is highly doubtful in my mind.

        1. Everything I read (that isn’t pure drivel or propaganda) regarding the fracking bubble indicates that it will pop as early as 2016 but no later than 2020. When it does, it will be serious and permanent. I won’t say that it will be the end or anything like the end of industrial civilization, but it will be a step down the ratchet or stairway that leads to the bottom of this civilizations end. Technological progress depends on a functioning economy.

        2. If our technological society does continue – after all, they could do in-situ coal gasification to get the petrochemicals needed – the maximum temperature faced by our decedents would go up, likely way up. Consider again the options available to a person living on a planet where the average temp in the tropics is 40C.

        3. There are other issues that are working to end industrial “progress” that I will only mention. Food scarcity, ocean acidification (jellyfish), fresh water scarcity, generalized over population, civil unrest, etc.

        4. extinct |ikˈstiNG(k)t| adjective
        (of a species, family, or other larger group) having no living members: trilobites and dinosaurs are extinct. • no longer in existence:

        The term “extinction” is not used precisely. The question raised by those who use it imprecisely on purpose is, “At what point does it stop mattering whether a species is extant or if the term extinct is more useful? When there is 10000 pairs, 4000?” If a creature can thrive in a wet bulb hell of 40C and subsist on jellyfish is it still human?

        I would like my descendants to catch a break. I would love it if something crashed our civilization now, right now. If we stopped discharging CO2 now, a 2C – 3C world would likely be available to them. Under those conditions, they could still farm, they could still be human in form and physiology, and some of the existing natural world would be there. If technological/industrial society is allowed to persist to its natural end, we will do the coal gasification and the end temp will be 8-12C higher than present (methane would be the driver). There is no way to spin that to make it positive.

        Reply
      • Paul from NSW

         /  June 13, 2014

        Hi Pintada,
        I absolutely agree that this will come at us fast and hard. But I am convinced we can survive it [with luck]. According to the studies on Thermogeddon, I would say that much of the tropics is lost. So I am not factoring attempting survival in those areas into the equation.

        There are many factors that need to be dealt with and key to this is ongoing technological development, that in turn relies on a number of topics but not in the least solar, biogas, hydrogen, 3D printing, aquaponics and logistics chains. (Which I am attempting to cover on my site).

        Regarding size, we don’t need a medical breakthrough (well we do, if we wanted to mutate). I don’t want to get banned so I want to make it clear that some of these solutions for size are unpleasant and ethically dangerous, that is why a safe mutation would be preferable. Realistically though, I doubt a mutation could ever be achieved without some unintended negative side-effect.
        When the choice is for the extinction of man or at best the reduction of man back to the stone age and all the violence that that implies, some radical discussions are warranted. That is why I am offering the following;

        Calorie restriction. Calorie restriction reduces body mass and lowers metabolism. Therefore it reduces body temperature. It’s a tough pill to swallow.

        There is already a treatable condition called Acromegaly (search the Mayo clinic). Acromegaly is a hormonal disorder that develops when your pituitary gland produces too much growth hormone during adulthood. There are a variety of treatments for it. Could those treatments be used to artificially reduce growth?
        Realistically though, that would need applied early in life to kids that are above the average height for their age. Though who knows what the side-effects might be. Obviously this is hugely contentious topic. It would take a very hostile environment before I would give my kids any sort of drug.

        Next is natural selection. Natural selection takes eons. That would be a burden on any community.

        Unnatural selection. There is no way I would ever condone an aggressive selection process. It would make us no better than the Nazis. Also I don’t believe in the servitude of women. So why bring it up? In a community where everybody was a parent to every child, and that it was accepted moral and cultural practice, encouraged “partnerships” have been used for centuries. If you look at the variety of forms within domesticated pets you can see the power of encouraged partnerships. Sounds foreign and it is. But survival would depend on having children that could survive.

        Lastly, perhaps it should be firstly, I see adoption. All things considered, this is ethically the most attractive. Adoption on the basis of body structure, and other traits. Which stated or otherwise is how it works now anyway. There will be a human tide of suffering, rather than add to it, wouldn’t it be better to help some of them?

        So initially the cooling of a body mass for the current generation would need to be dealt with using current technologies. Those technologies will eventually breakdown, the next generation will have to look at things differently. That will be an ethical issue for them to resolve. To cool the body using current technology would require a number of other techniques covered in the “Body temperature” post on my site (http://preppingforexile.blogspot.com.au/2014/05/body-temperature.html). I am hoping that people will post suggestions that I can add to within the content.

        Correctly planned for, we are not going extinct, we will adapt. But there is a truly positive spin on this. Should humanity survive, the lessons we will have learned from the history of our foolishness, would surely give us spiritual wings. Is a bird any less an animal for having evolved from a maniraptoran dinosaur? I say it is more, because it has a better perspective.

        Again, I hope that none of this is taken offensively. It is meant as an ethical discussion on planned adaptation.

        Reply
      • pintada

         /  June 13, 2014

        Hey Paul:
        >> “Again, I hope that none of this is taken offensively. It is meant as an ethical discussion on planned adaptation.”

        I can’t imagine that any reasonable person (i.e. not a ideologue or paid denialist) would be offended by a thoughtful dialog. It is my opinion that your tendency to believe in technology is not fashionable on these sites (e.g. here, “archdruid”, http://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com), but technological “progress” will be with us for the near future so it should be considered, fashion not withstanding.

        I think that i can show that for even a large amount of warming – but less than ~6C – temperature vis-a-vis human physiology, like O2 depletion, is not an important issue compared to the other things that would go on.

        I might as well do so at your blog.

        Reply
      • pintada

         /  June 13, 2014

        Sorry Paul, i cannot post a comment at your blog. I suspect a bug there, but no idea.

        Reply
      • Paul from NSW

         /  June 13, 2014

        Pintada, Hopefully, the comment section is now working on preppingforexile

        Reply
      • pintada

         /  June 15, 2014

        >> “Pintada, Hopefully, the comment section is now working on preppingforexile”
        Nope. I saw some new options for login didn’t matter BTW and for what its worth, i prefer Disqus.

        I doubt that Robert will mind if I put it here. This is part 1.

        Paul, I will quote only those things that I want to talk about to save space, no offense intended.

        >> “According to the studies on Thermogeddon, I would say that much of the tropics is lost. So I am not factoring attempting survival in those areas into the equation.”
        I was not aware of the “barringtonstewart” site, but with just a little perusal i see quotes from FoxNews and Roy Spencer – not a good omen. On the other hand, the thermogeddon article by Hazel Muir seemed very reasonable to me given what I know. Thus, the tropics are not a good location for future survival. Besides, I like 4 seasons. We are on the same page so far. 🙂

        >> “There are many factors that need to be dealt with and key to this is ongoing technological development, that in turn relies on a number of topics but not in the least solar, biogas, hydrogen, 3D printing, aquaponics and logistics chains. (Which I am attempting to cover on my site).”

        solar – waste of time except for a personal power source since the EROI is only 2.6. It might improve, but for it to get over 8 would take a lot of work, luck, and time. I doubt that it would ever reach 10 which is the minimum for a viable power source for industrial civilization.

        biogas/biodiesel – The problem is in the bio part. If you can’t raise food, why would you have plant material for conversion to gas? Both processes require vast amounts of water, land, and nutrients. The EROEI is 1 or less.

        hydrogen – LOL

        3D printing – Despite what Kurzweil and crew think this tech is all hype and no substance. If I had $100,000 for one, maybe. Look around your house, and find something that you would need to survive that could be made with a $2000 printer out of the plastics available. I did that exercise and found nothing. I had a relay go out on my water system yesterday. Would a 3D printer help me? No.

        aquaponics – Given the proper conditions at your homestead absolutely.

        logistics chains – no civilization, no logistics needed.

        Obviously, i am throwing down a gauntlet (gauntlets?) but thats where i am with those ideas. Please prove me wrong. 🙂
        >> “Regarding size …”
        >> “Calorie restriction. Calorie restriction reduces body mass and lowers metabolism. Therefore it reduces body temperature. It’s a tough pill to swallow.”

        It’s a tough pill to swallow …. so to speak. LOL

        End part 1

        Reply
      • pintada

         /  June 16, 2014

        Part 2

        Most of your comment is about altering humanity to handle heat, and in a previous comment you mentioned Asimov’s book about living underground. I want to hear a defense of that position … its the best way i learn.

        I think that your premise which seems to be that the earth will warm up – and keep warming up, and that the heat will be the main problem. I disagree (if i understand you correctly). Your ethical question will never become an issue.

        There will be hot days, sure.
        (A city in China probably saw a wet bulb temperature of 33C last summer. Per official Chinese news sources 24 people died, all of whom were migrant construction workers. Let that rattle around in your BS detector for a while.)

        But our civilization is facing more problems than heat. In fact it is the least of our problems.

        1. The Hadley Cells are growing and the desertification south of ~30 degrees north and north of ~30 degrees south is growing more intense. This has caused and will continue to cause civil strife that threatens the oil supply via several mechanisms (Iran, Iraq, Syria, Egypt) and upsets the food supply directly (India, Australia, China, Mexico, southern US & California, Southern Brazil, Argentina).

        2. This civilization has reached a point in its increasing complexity that there is a diminishing return to capital and other investments (Tainter, 1988)

        3. There is a tremendous risk of running out of food very soon, for many reasons including stupid water management. (Brown, 2012)

        4. Ocean acidification. (Callum Robers, 2012)

        5. Peak oil (Richard Heinberg)

        6. etc. (I can bore you with more if you wish later.)

        As a result of these issues, and because of the ability of people to live in really crazy conditions, I contend that the actual temperature will not become a (major*) killer until most everyone is dead from other causes – especially starvation, and war.

        Needless to say, Asimov was a great writer of sic-fi/fantasy, but there will be no technology, and no economy with which to build underground cities ( LOL ), and there will be no biotechnology for modifying anyones physiology by the time things get sorted out.

        In my opinion it is possible to prepare:
        A. Learn to grow your own food – big subject
        B. Do grief work – get ready to loose everything and die gracefully.
        C. Be excellent to each other.

        * “Major” means >1 billion dead.

        End part 2

        Reply
        • Paul from NSW

           /  June 16, 2014

          Hi Pintaba,
          I will have to split this into a number of smaller replies in order to be able to post links in response.
          I think I will move the blog across to a wiki so that others can participate in formulating a plan.
          But let me state that I don’t really expect the majority of the Earth’s population to survive. You are right, this is not just about heat. Heat stress is one of many issues. Any strategy I am looking at is really for the survival of small related communities.
          I adhere to Mr Scribblers view that this will end up in a collapse at 20 years. But I do not have any doubt though regarding what the wealthy will do to survive, and how they will look to profit from the situation.
          There is a definite precedent for under ground cities, N. Korea. During the Korean war the US dropped 635,000 tons of bombs, and 32,557 tons of napalm on the North. During that time it is estimated that 12-15% of the population were killed. What did they do? To escape the bombing, entire factories were moved underground, along with schools, hospitals, government offices, and much of the population. … Peasants hid underground during the day and came out to farm at night. Any wonder they hold a grudge?

          Logistics chains are still viable without “civilization” on the scale we are used to. Smaller communities can still trade skills and produce. There is evidence of trade in the stone age.

          According to energy.gov Hydrogen is not viable only because oil is so cheap.

          All you need with Solar is enough power to run a small aircon long enough to survive a heatwave. That, and to slowly generate hydrogen via electrolysis, if it is feasible. I live in the mountains, the temperature here drops dramatically at night. So a heat event will need to be handled during the day (when there is sunlight).

          Biogas, on the http://preppingforexile.blogspot.com.au/ site you will see lots of options for producing food at extreme heat, and low light. We only require vast amounts of land because we get our calories from inefficient food sources.

          I hope I answered some of your questions effectively. I don’t mind gauntlets being thrown down, this really needs to be challenged now, because later on there is going to be little room for error.

      • pintada

         /  June 16, 2014

        >> “There is a definite precedent for under ground cities, …”
        I never said that it was not possible to build underground cities, it is. Just as it is possible (yet) to launch rockets to Mars. What I said is that it isn’t practical for maintaining any sort of complex civilization. The words complex and civilization are important here (Tainter, 1988 – I won’t define the terms, I assume that you have read the book. If you have not read him, I strongly suggest that you do).

        >> “Logistics chains are still viable without “civilization” on the scale we are used to.”
        Sorry man, this is simply not true. How does one set up a global logistics chain without petrol?

        >> “Smaller communities can still trade skills and produce. There is evidence of trade in the stone age.”
        Grog – “Grog has wheat.”
        Biff – “Biff have eggs.”
        Grog – “Me want eggs. You want wheat?
        Yes, of course, the above conversation can happen in a 4C world, but I have never heard the above conversation referred to as a “logistics chain”.

        >> “According to energy.gov Hydrogen is not viable only because oil is so cheap.”
        What is the EROEI for H2?
        Will you make it from CH4? If so what is your point?
        Will you use solar (EROI of 3-7) to perform electrolysis and then use the H2 to run a motor on your homestead? Why not use the electricity directly?
        Do you imagine preserving technological civilization this way? If so, I’m back to LOL.

        >> “All you need with Solar is enough power to run a small aircon long enough to survive a heatwave. That, and to slowly generate hydrogen via electrolysis, if it is feasible. I live in the mountains, the temperature here drops dramatically at night. So a heat event will need to be handled during the day (when there is sunlight).”
        There is a difference between me and mine surviving, and having a civilization. If my group makes it long enough to face a killer heat wave where we have settled, then sleeping in our root cellar might become an option. Without civilization, there will be no AC (air conditioning 🙂 ).

        A short story is appropriate here. I got a flat tire on my wheel barrow. Then I bought a tube from Grainger (a US logistics chain company), and fixed the flat. Easy peasy. But, after a certain point in the collapse, I will not be able to get tubes. I can and have purchased spares, but eventually each of them will fail in turn and we will be without a wheel barrow. My children or grandchildren will be carrying dirt in baskets on their heads. Air conditioning? No fracking way.

        >> “We only require vast amounts of land because we get our calories from inefficient food sources.”
        This statement is a myth. Please, explain to me how you raise 5000 acres of wheat more efficiently than your neighbor. I would love to be rich, and you would certainly make me rich if you can share.

        Reply
        • Paul from NSW

           /  June 17, 2014

          Next point.
          “What is the EROEI for H2?
          Will you make it from CH4? If so what is your point?
          Will you use solar (EROI of 3-7) to perform electrolysis and then use the H2 to run a motor on your homestead? Why not use the electricity directly?
          Do you imagine preserving technological civilization this way?”
          It seems to me that the calculations regarding EROI are for our current civilization, and so can be misleading. I don’t really think using methane to generate hydrogen makes much point. Methane does have its place, however, let’s look at solar and wind electrolysis to generate hydrogen. Certainly, the electricity could be used directly, and I agree that that should be done. However, usage would be variable and excess is wasted, I can’t really see batteries being a long term solution for storage. Electrolysis would allow that excess to be stored in the form of hydrogen. Hydrogen would be easier to store in a cost effective manner when you only have to support a small community.
          Preserving technological civilization is vastly easier than preserving the energy requirements of 9 billion people (2050). Imagine the civilization reduced to 1 billion, the economic calculations change. We have to hold technological civilization together by forming smaller semi-autonomous communities, think Kibbutz style. The energy requirements for industry would be reduced, significantly.
          Certainly the pace would slow down, probably dramatically. But I don’t think that is a bad thing. Here are my thoughts on a community system http://preppingforexile.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/community-economic-viability.html

        • If you have a surplus of low cost energy during peak times you can even store the hydrogen cryogenically.

          Current Solar EROI is comparable to to current nat gas EROI. Wind EROI is currently superior to nat gas EROI. Of course, EROI is lost in storage, but if you have surplus, then storage is a net gain overall and outside of EROI considerations.

        • Paul from NSW

           /  June 19, 2014

          I agree, though it seems to me the liquefaction of hydrogen from renewable sources has a couple of drawbacks. It would require considerable energy to cool it, and it would require a big investment to make the processing plants. I guess, it is yet another reason why we cannot afford to continue with business as usual until the whole system collapses.

          On a smaller community scale taking solar and wind excess inputs and storing them locally as gas is fairly low-tech, and as you stated it changes the EROI calculations. In addition, the use of waste digesters and the local storage and use of the resulting methane makes sense to me.

          Perhaps I don’t understand those EROI calculations well enough, but they do not seem to include the cost to the environment, rather it is purely a physics calculation. In my mind we need something more complete from a sustainable perspective analogous to the triple bottom line in business accounting http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_bottom_line. Are you aware of such a formula?

        • The EROI calls are a broad measure. In general, they bias toward ff as they calculate at the well head or mine but do not add efficiency loss due to burning in an engine or power plant for example.

          In addition solar EROI benefits greatly from manufacturing scaling and innovation. Wind does as well, but to a lesser degree. So EROI for these are on a growth path while that for ff is declining due to depletion and loss of ease of access.

        • Paul from NSW

           /  June 19, 2014

          Very interesting, thanks for the info.

        • Also, other promising methods of storage include compressed air…

      • pintada

         /  June 16, 2014

        Here Paul – Mr. Heinberg explains exactly what I was trying to describe. Plus, he has credentials!

        http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-06-16/want-to-change-the-world-read-this-first

        Reply
        • Paul from NSW

           /  June 17, 2014

          Hi Pintaba,
          Great article, and it aligns perfectly with my thoughts. Life as we know it is over. From the article;
          “There’s no hard and fast rule, but your idea stands a good chance if it assumes we are moving toward a societal regime with less energy and less transport (and that is therefore more localized); if it can work in a world where climate is changing and weather conditions are extreme and unpredictable; if it provides a way to sequester carbon rather than releasing more into the atmosphere; and if it helps people meet their basic needs during hard times.”
          So let’s tackle the foreseeable problems and the potential solutions. I don’t foresee anything remotely like our modern complex civilization lasting for more than my generation. Let’s drop that from the conversation entirely as a final goal, we agree, it’s not going to happen. A lot of possibilities depend on how quickly the general population realizes that this is where we are headed. In addition, some solutions will be viable in the short term, but not for the next generation. The challenge is to get past the first die back.
          OK, so your question “How does one set up a global logistics chain without petrol?” A view possibilities as I see them are here. http://preppingforexile.blogspot.com.au/2014/05/logistics.html

      • pintada

         /  June 17, 2014

        >> “the answer for replacement parts lies in 3D printing. Over the next decade there will be few things that cannot be replicated with 3D printing provided you have the raw materials and the know-how.”

        We are not having a conversation.

        I pointed out that I could not find anything at my place that I could build with a 3D printer that would matter. I gave the example of an inner tube for my wheel barrow. Please post a link to a 3D printer – for any price – that would allow me to print an inner tube.

        While fixing my tire, i ruined a bolt. Please find me a 3D printer for less than $100K that will make a bolt.

        I need a level control relay. 3D printer to the rescue? NO

        Reply
        • Paul from NSW

           /  June 17, 2014

          Hi Pintaba,
          Think about it. If a community bought a 3D printer capable of printing a bolt, do you think they would be financially successful? I think there might be some confusion with the idea of going it alone vs community living. If we try and survive separately we are gone. Advanced Manufacturing Services in Sydney currently offer 3D printing of metal parts. Jinan Xintian Technology Co., Ltd. in China offer a 3D metal laser printer for $10,000. This is not pie in the sky stuff, and it is readily available to a community. Prices are dropping fast.
          In 1919 Holden started manufacturing car bodies in Australia. At that time there were roughly 5 million people. The business was very successful. Now we are at 24 million and the car industry is dying due to imports.
          At the time it was established there were no prior skills here. So everything was learned. Once the logistics chains start to become much more expensive, then community manufacturing will boom. Personally I do not believe the logistics chains will fail completely, they will just become more and more expensive.
          The issue will be in the preparation.

      • pintada

         /  June 17, 2014

        >> “Electrolysis would allow that excess to be stored in the form of hydrogen. Hydrogen would be easier to store in a cost effective manner when you only have to support a small community.”

        Paul, to use the H2 you would need to pressurize it. That requires a pump, and electric motor, and a storage medium. Currently, H2 is stored in steel tanks at 3000 – 4000 psi and at that pressure, the H2 escapes the tank through the steel in just a few weeks.

        So, how are you proposing to maintain the pump? 3D printing?

        Show me a 3D printer that can print a stainless steel piston for pressurizing H2 that can also print all the parts needed to keep the 3D printer working. How does a 3D printer decide where to put stuff. A computer.

        Show me a 3D printer that can print a computer chip.

        You are hanging your entire plan on 3D printing. It won’t work.

        Reply
        • Paul from NSW

           /  June 17, 2014

          Pintaba,
          “Show me a 3D printer that can print a computer chip.”
          Come on Pintaba, Google is your friend.

        • Paul from NSW

           /  June 17, 2014

          Hi Pintaba,
          Hydrogen does not have to be pressurized for storage. That is a requirement for efficient shipping. I am not talking about shipping it, but rather using it locally. There are many low tech solutions for local storage of methane and hydrogen, have a look on the instructables site. There are some very clever people there.
          One I particularly like is the equivalent of a weighted upside down bucket in water. There is an inline with a check valve, the outline runs through a little tank to eliminate flashback. When you want to use it you simply open a valve on the outline and apply pressure.
          In saying that there are a lot of other precautions that need to be dealt with. Like with methane digesters it would probably be recommended that the storage be buried and removed from dwellings. But they are not deal breakers by any means.

      • pintada

         /  June 19, 2014

        Very interesting Paul. Sounds like you’ve got it all figured out! Good luck.

        Reply
  62. rayduray

     /  June 11, 2014

    NASA’s Earth Observatory has an article up about the recent calving.

    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=83837&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_title

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  June 11, 2014

      The tone of the article strikes me as a little odd. It seems to be almost written in response to the post on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog (which happens listed as a reference). It is natural that they would like to keep the upper hand in being viewed as the all-knowing experts but this just struck me as a bit elitist in it’s tone. To state that such a calving event is “not unusual” is stretching the truth. Calving events, like car crashes, are not unusual. But the equivalent of a 300 car pileup on a superfreeway that has had the speed limit removed should get a little more attention from NASA I would think. Is it just me?

      Reply
  63. Mark from New England

     /  June 11, 2014

    Can the CEOs of energy companies get any more evil than this? Yes, I suppose they can…

    “Coal Company CEO Threatens To Sue EPA For ‘Lying’ About Climate Change”

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/06/10/3447370/murray-coal-warming-is-fake/

    Reply
    • Apneaman

       /  June 11, 2014

      Yes they can and will. Power never gives up. I think in the near future climate change will split America even further apart. Unfortunately, they have created an army of ideological zealots (white, male, conservatives) and they will direct them at anyone who gets in their way. Everyone thinks the deniers are just plain stupid, but it’s much more than that. Their whole world view and sense of control is at stake. Also, they now have to fear retribution. Think what will happen when millions wake up and realize that much of the death and suffering could have been prevented, if not for greed. If your grandchild dies in a heatwave in the near future are you going to be satisfied with an apology from Rex Tillerson or Anthony Watts or anyone? How many will want to punish those they feel are guilty? The Deniers and their masters are too heavily invested to back out now. They will not stop of their own accord.

      Reply
  64. Colorado Bob

     /  June 11, 2014

    Early Summer Heat Broils Northern Hemisphere

    While the summer has started off relatively cool for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. many other locations in the world have been broiling the past several weeks. Record or near-record heat has been observed in portions of Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Russia, India, Nepal, China, Japan, Korea, Libya, Chad, and Mexico. Here’s a brief summary of the highlights.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=280

    Reply
    • climatehawk1

       /  June 11, 2014

      Thanks, tweet scheduled on this.

      Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  June 11, 2014

      Really good summary. Especially for those of us in the eastern two-thirds of the US, where people are saying (not me) “where’s the blogal warming”?

      Reply
      • Mark from New England

         /  June 11, 2014

        ‘BLOGAL WARMING’ – As experienced by readers of this blog, are periods when Robert puts out a series of excellent articles in such rapid succession that you get caught off guard. In attempting to read the comments in 3 recent threads, your computer overheats, so you decide to grab a cold one and take a dip in a lake before coming back. That’s ‘blogal warming’ for you. We’re in a rare cool phase recently, but alas that’ll pass.

        Reply
  65. Colorado Bob

     /  June 11, 2014

    Flooding in Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina, with record rainfall and rivers’ swelling

    The Iguazu and Parana rivers that Brazil shares with Paraguay and Argentina rose to historic levels, forcing authorities to open two major hydroelectric dams above the world-renowned Iguazu Falls, where the water flow increased nearly 30-fold, from 1,500 cubic meters per second to 43,000 meters per second, topping the previous record of 36,000 set in 1992.

    Link

    Reply
  66. Colorado Bob

     /  June 11, 2014

    UAH Lower Troposphere: Warmest 10-year Period on Record
    UAH’s May anomaly for the lower troposphere is +0.33°C, the 3rd-warmest May in their records.

    It also makes the last 10 years (120 months) the warmest in their records (error bars excluded):

    http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2014/06/uah-lower-troposphere-warmest-10-year.html

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  June 11, 2014

      Bob,

      Could you explain what ‘UAH’ stands for, and the significance of this finding for those of us still catching up on all the climate and weather terminology?

      Thanks much and for all the links!

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  June 11, 2014

        University of Alabama Huntsville .

        Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  June 11, 2014

        the significance of this finding …………..

        Roy Spencer runs this satellite data set , he’s a creationist / denier . The irony, oh the irony .

        Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  June 11, 2014

      I hope the monsoon advances a bit quicker and provides some relief there soon.

      Reply
  67. Gerald Spezio

     /  June 11, 2014

    My skilled dentist did his early dental training in India at U of Bombay (now Mumbai).
    He relocated to the U.S. in the 1980s, & finished more grad training.
    A few days ago when I queried him about the heat wave in India, he didn’t even know that it was happening.

    Reply
  68. Apneaman

     /  June 11, 2014

    On a more hopeful note.

    Bloomberg: Americans 2-1 Will Pay More for Electricity to Combat Climate Change. Not that They have to, but Nice to Know.
    June 11, 2014

    The fallacy implied by the headline is that clean, renewable electricity costs more than dirty, mercury laced, climate killing coal. But, even assuming that, a majority are saying they’d pay more for a livable planet. Go figure.

    http://climatecrocks.com/2014/06/11/bloomberg-americans-2-1-will-pay-more-for-electricity-to-combat-climate-change-not-that-they-have-to-but-nice-to-know/#more-19443

    Reply
    • colinc

       /  June 11, 2014

      People say a lot of things! How and where did Bloomberg conduct that poll? Are the millions of homeless people willing to pay more? How about the nearly homeless that are already having a hard time paying the bills? Perhaps the millions of recent college grads with 5-6 digit debt and no job are willing to pay more? I call shenanigans! I don’t know a single person who even wants to know there is a problem let alone pay more to “combat” it. Peter Sinclair is the opposite kind of “denier.” He doesn’t have his head in the sand, it’s in the clouds expecting ‘Miracle Day.’

      Reply
  69. Colorado Bob

     /  June 11, 2014

    Extreme weather to occur more often around Indian Ocean rim

    A double whammy of weird ocean behavior washed over the world in 1997. The Pacific Ocean had already succumbed to an exceptionally strong El Niño, and then the Indian Ocean was hit fiercely by El Niño’s close cousin: the so-called Indian Ocean Dipole. Surface waters off the coast of Indonesia cooled and the ocean’s predominant westerly winds reversed, leading to catastrophic weather. Fires raged across a drought-stricken Indonesia, and floods across east African nations killed thousands.

    Climate change could make years like 1997 come more often, according to a new study of the Indian Ocean Dipole cycle, which alternates between two opposite extremes, positive and negative, just as El Niño does with La Niña. The study suggests that rising greenhouse gases will cause extreme positive dipole events—like the one that struck the Indian Ocean in 1997—to occur three times as often this century as they did in the 20th century, or about once every 6 years, as opposed to once every 17 years.

    Link

    Reply
  70. Apneaman

     /  June 12, 2014

    AUSTRALIANS FOR COAL

    Reply
  71. rayduray

     /  June 12, 2014

    The Guardian has an El Nino update:

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/11/-sp-el-nino-weather-2014

    The gist of it is that ECMWF gives a 90% probability of an El Nino, but cannot predict its ultimate strength.

    Reply
    • bassman

       /  June 12, 2014

      This El Niño is taking its time, may not arrive until fall.

      Reply
      • rayduray

         /  June 12, 2014

        OTOH, this El Nino is taking the normal amount of time. What’s different is that we’re all way more attentive than in the past. In 1997-8 the first I knew of that great El Nino event was when much of Peru was flooded and the rest was a landslide.🙂

        Reply
  72. Colorado Bob

     /  June 12, 2014

    Soot and Dirt Is Melting Snow and Ice Around the World
    New report highlights increased loss in Greenland ice cap from dust and soot.

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/06/140610-connecting-dots-dust-soot-snow-ice-climate-change-dimick/?google_editors_picks=true

    Reply
  73. Colorado Bob

     /  June 12, 2014

    Large sea ice changes North of Swalbard

    During the last decades warmer Atlantic water has caused a retreat of the ice edge north of Svalbard. In contrast to other areas of the Arctic Ocean, the largest ice loss north of Svalbard occurred during winter.

    A paper published in Tellus by Ingrid Husøy Onarheim and co-workers demonstrates large changes in the sea ice cover north of Svalbard. The Arctic sea ice area has been measured, using satellites, since 1979.
    The new study shows that the ice cover north of Svalbard is decreasing for all months, with largest ice reduction during winter. This is in contrast to the observed changes in more central parts of the Arctic Ocean, where largest ice decline is happening during summer.

    Read more at: Link

    Reply
  74. Hurricane Cristina Just Set A Scary Record
    For the first time on record, the eastern Pacific basin has now had two Category 4 hurricanes before July.

    http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/06/hurricane-cristina-eastern-pacific-el-nino

    Reply
    • rayduray

       /  June 12, 2014

      That headline is pretty much overstated. Cristina is about 15 miles across as a hurricane, 80 miles in diameter as a tropical storm. And as hurricanes go, it’s a tiddler.

      Compare to Typhoon Tip: http://tinyurl.com/k77phv7

      At its greatest extent, Tip was 1,380 miles across with tropical storm force winds.

      By rough calculation, Tip’s TS winds covered an area of ~150,000 sq. mi.
      And Cristina’s TS winds cover ~5,000 sq mi.

      Thus, you could hold 30 Cristinas in Tip’s wind field.

      Reply
  75. Colorado Bob

     /  June 12, 2014

    Released today

    Extracted: How the Quest for Mineral Wealth is Plundering the Planet
    By (author) Ugo Bardi

    Description:

    As we dig, drill, and excavate to unearth the planet s mineral bounty, the resources we exploit from ores, veins, seams, and wells are gradually becoming exhausted. Mineral treasures that took millions, or even billions, of years to form are now being squandered in just centuries or sometimes just decades. Will there come a time when we actually run out of minerals? Debates already soar over how we are going to obtain energy without oil, coal, and gas. But what about the other mineral losses we face? Without metals, and semiconductors, how are we going to keep our industrial system running? Without mineral fertilizers and fuels, how are we going to produce the food we need?Ugo Bardi delivers a sweeping history of the mining industry, starting with its humble beginning when our early ancestors started digging underground to find the stones they needed for their tools. He traces the links between mineral riches and empires, wars, and civilizations, and shows how mining in its various forms came to be one of the largest global industries. He also illustrates how the gigantic mining machine is now starting to show signs of difficulties. The easy mineral resources, the least expensive to extract and process, have been mostly exploited and depleted. There are plenty of minerals left to extract, but at higher costs and with increasing difficulties.The effects of depletion take different forms and one may be the economic crisis that is gripping the world system. And depletion is not the only problem. Mining has a dark side pollution that takes many forms and delivers many consequences, including climate change. The world we have been accustomed to, so far, was based on cheap mineral resources and on the ability of the ecosystem to absorb pollution without generating damage to human beings. Both conditions are rapidly disappearing. Having thoroughly plundered planet Earth, we are entering a new world. Bardi draws upon the world s leading minerals experts to offer a compelling glimpse into that new world ahead.”

    http://www.clubofrome.org/?p=7169

    Reply
  76. Colorado Bob

     /  June 12, 2014

    Drastic New England Lobster Decline May Be Linked to Warmer Waters

    Despite booming populations of adult lobsters, marine biologists and fisheries along the northern Atlantic coast of the United States are concerned about a dramatic population decline for young larval lobsters. Scientists searching for the cause of this drop see signs that ocean currents and warmer ocean waters are possible culprits.
    Dr. Rick Wahle, research professor for the School of Marine Science at the University of Maine and founder of the American Lobster Settlement Index, has been tracking lobster populations since 1989. The scope of his study today tracks the waters in New England and Atlantic Canada.
    Wahle and his crew of divers are tasked with counting the larval populations of American lobster. He told AccuWeather.com that the last few years have seen some downturn, but that recently the decrease was more drastic.
    “In 2013 we saw one of the most widespread downturns in the history of [this study] for sure,” Wahle said.

    Link

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  June 12, 2014

      Ocean temperatures can also heavily impact lobster development. According to Wahle, the comfort zone for lobsters is below 68 F. Lately, he said, summer waters have been warm enough to create stress for lobsters. In 1999, significant lobster deaths occurred in Long Island Sound. The fishery there has yet to recover from the 80 percent loss of their lobsters, with many lobstermen no longer able to work.

      Reply
      • Griffin

         /  June 13, 2014

        Year after year in New England you hear the same thing from fishermen. “The water is just too warm this year”. It is as if the northeast has been transplanted to a different region further south. There is simply no way that the biodiversity of marine life from the past can hold for the future.

        Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  June 13, 2014

      Yes, adult ‘lobstahs’ are plentiful now – but in a few years they will be declining, even in the waters of southern Maine. Despite being from lobster central, I prefer Wellfleet Bay scallops! But the waters are warming up rapidly and it remains to be seen how resilient many of the aquatic species will be.

      Reply
  77. nelsonrsa

     /  June 13, 2014

    It is as if the Earth were a living body with a fever, meaning cold shivers, hot spells and lots of moisture discharge within short periods of time. The heat usually kills the virus/organism.

    Reply
  78. nelsonrsa

     /  June 13, 2014

    We have filled the Earth, as God commanded Noah. Maybe the first or easiest step to reduce our footsteps would be to suggest 1/0 child policies in all countries and rather than exporting food at great cost, allow needful people to find new habitat. Like John Lennon/Yoko Ono- no borders.

    Reply
  79. “Northern India is suffering through its longest heatwave on record, as temperatures reached a staggering 118 degrees in New Delhi yesterday. Wednesday marked the seventh day in a row with temperatures soaring above 110 degrees.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/12/india-heatwave-photos_n_5488093.html

    Reply
  80. Changes in precipitation pattern and risk of drought over India in the context of global warming

    “Precipitation pattern has changed over many regions in recent decades. There are evidences of increased heavy precipitation and decreased light precipitation in wide spread parts of the globe due to global warming. Many studies over Indian region focus on heavy precipitation and risk of floods. But few works discuss the changes in light precipitation and risk of droughts. In this study, changes in total dry days, prolonged dry spells, light precipitation and risk of drought as indicated by Modified Palmer Index (MPI) over India during six decades (1951–2010) are examined quantitatively in the context of global warming. It is found that there are increases of 49% ± 21% and 33% ± 17% in prolonged dry spells and total dry days, respectively over India for each degree Kelvin (K) increase in global mean temperature. There is an increase of 51% ± 24% K¯1 in drought index MPI (<=−2.0). There is also a reduction of 31 ± 14% K¯1in light precipitation days over India. These changes are more severe over Northeastern and Western part of India. Increases in prolonged dry spells, total dry days and decreases in light precipitation relate well with the increases in drought index MPI (<=−2.0). These results suggest that there is an increased risk of drought due to increased prolonged dry spells, total dry days and decreased light precipitation days over India as a result of global warming."

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD021471/abstract?campaign=wolacceptedarticle&utm_term=0_876aab4fd7-cd8f88e8eb-303421281&utm_content=buffer3bced&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Reply
  81. 1 C MAX

     /  June 13, 2014

    Apneaman,

    “Bloomberg: Americans 2-1 Will Pay More for Electricity to Combat Climate Change.”

    Depending on how the questions are asked, one can get almost any results desired from these polls. A recent Gallup Poll (Gallup has been tracking this issue for years) showed in fact that interest in climate change peaked about 7-8 years ago, and has been declining ever since. Roughly half the responders expressed no concern about climate change. And, this is for no commitment, only response to a pollster’s question. What would the response be if people were asked to provide a check? I don’t know anyone willing to pay anything to combat climate change, nor willing to give up anything to combat climate change, even though some are vocal supporters of doing something. It’s all hype; nobody wants to do anything remotely necessary to reduce the CO2 concentrations to levels guaranteeing survival of our civilization.

    Reply
  82. i don’t know what will result from this but the United Nations Global Pulse has issued a Big Data Climate Challenge: http://www.unglobalpulse.org/big-data-climate-launch

    Reply
  83. Mark from New England

     /  June 13, 2014

    While we wait for Robert’s Magnum Opus, here’s another good article:

    http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-06-13/fresh-water-growth-degrowth-and-the-steady-state-economy

    Reply
    • Probably should have spaced this one out a bit…

      Reply
      • Mark from New England

         /  June 14, 2014

        Good to hear from you! We’re all looking forward to your next posting, but take your time – I’m sure it’ll be enlightening. Are you working on the ‘grand overview’ that someone here, I forget who, suggested?

        Reply
      • Mark from New England

         /  June 14, 2014

        A surprise is good – looking forward to whatever your next post is.

        Reply
    • RE the global overview.. I have enough for probably three or four posts. Still trying to figure out how best to put it together..

      Reply
  84. Colorado Bob

     /  June 14, 2014

    Apparent pause in global warming blamed on ‘lousy’ data
    European Space Agency scientist says annual sea level rises since 1993 indicate that warming has continued unabated

    http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/jun/13/pause-global-warming-data-sea-level-rises

    Reply
    • My personal interpretation: Scientist touts his own data set, disses others. The sea level point seems like a good one, though.

      Reply
    • The ability of ghg to trap heat in the atmosphere and ocean is 10x that of its ability to generate electricity in power stations. And yet, some people still worship the stuff as a nigh magical substance. From another perspective, we probably couldn’t have thought up a more ingenious way to wreck the future — live under the false assumption that it’s economically necessary to keep pumping out climatological poison.

      Reply
  85. Colorado Bob

     /  June 14, 2014

    Paraná’s central region received 380 millimeters (15 inches) of rain on June 7 and 8, while the average rainfall for the full month of June in the region is 155 millimeters, Captain Pinheiro said. The state’s weather service is predicting as much as 100 millimeters of rain this weekend in the state’s central, south and southwest regions.

    Link

    Reply
  86. Apneaman

     /  June 14, 2014
    Reply
  87. We also have Coal’s war on the climate. A terrible war that not even the coal companies will survive. When we hear cries of a “War on coal.”, we are hearing ‘executioners’ crying as ‘victims’. It is a tragic state of affairs that we must undo.

    Reply
  88. Colorado Bob

     /  June 15, 2014

    Dried up: Poverty in America’s drought lands

    In more than two decades working at a Central California food bank, Sandy Beals has never seen anything like this spring.

    Last month alone, FoodLink of Tulare County served 22,000 people who came in for food — 5,000 more than it usually serves each month and a 12 percent increase from the same month last year. For Beals, who runs the food bank, the spike in hunger traces back to one thing: drought.

    “We didn’t think we would hit a big peak until August, but it’s already started to climb,” Beals says. “And it’s going to get a lot worse” as the end of the crop season normally drives more migrant workers to FoodLink’s services.

    http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865605117/Dried-up-poverty-in-Americas-drought-lands.html

    Reply
  89. Colorado Bob

     /  June 15, 2014

    Record rainfall in Sioux Falls causes flooding problems

    Sioux Falls received 4.68 inches of rain in the last 24-hours, breaking the previous record of 4.59 inches set on August 1, 1957. That makes it the 3rd wettest June on record, Kyle Wiser of The National Weather Service said…………………. Luverne resident Gary Holmgren said the 6.6 inches of rain in the last 30 hours has washed out several additional roads north of the area near Hardwick, Minnesota.

    Link

    Reply
  90. Colorado Bob

     /  June 15, 2014

    Nearly 9 inches of rain fell in Natal from 8 a.m. Saturday to 8 a.m. Sunday alone, according to INMET, Brazil’s governmental meteorological department. But those totals are higher since the rain began Friday, first shutting down a FIFA-sanctioned fan fest at Fortress Beach in Natal, and then soaking the city’s opening match between Mexico and Cameroon, NBC Sports reports.

    Link

    Reply
  91. Colorado Bob

     /  June 15, 2014

    2 links set me free. And please read what I posted.

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  June 16, 2014

      That is an insane amount of water Bob. I keep wondering when will be my turn, to see locally the incredible rainfall that hits somewhere everyday it seems now. It is easy to see that our modern infrastructure is simply not made to handle what Nature is dishing out these days!

      Reply
  92. Mark from New England

     /  June 16, 2014

    Record low sea ice extent unlikely this year according to:

    http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/06/asi-2014-update-3-here-comes-the-sun-again.html#more

    Reply
  93. Andy (at work)

     /  June 16, 2014

    Wow,

    check out the melt extent on Greenland. ~30%

    http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  June 16, 2014

      Breaking news: June 16, 2095 – the Jakobshavn glacier has completely melted – nothing to see here, just move along…

      Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  June 16, 2014

      Yes, so even though the arctic sea ice may melt may not set records this year, it looks like the Greenland melt is on a record breaking pace. Does it typically peak in late-summer, like the arctic sea ice melt?

      Reply
      • Looking at nsidc, it looks like the peak runs from 3rd week of June to first week of Aug (roughly). We’re a week or 2 from peak by the looks of it.

        If you look at climate reanalyzer and look at the surface wind / jet stream over Greenland, you can see where the heat is getting drawn up over the ice. As the Jet stream is wonky and is “sticky” we’ll see if it parks itself.

        I was looking at the temperature anomaly for Antarctica today, anomalies over the ice up to 10C (still cold as hell ). The surface wind at the southern end (Antarctica) is pure chaos.

        Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  June 17, 2014

      Giant Ice Structures Found under Greenland Ice Sheet

      Dr Bell and her colleagues looked at Petermann Glacier in the north of Greenland. They discovered that the glacier is sweeping a dozen large features with it toward the coast as it funnels off the ice sheet. One feature sits where satellite data has shown part of the glacier racing twice as fast as nearby ice.

      The scientists suggest that the refreeze process is influencing the glacier’s advance hundreds of miles from where Petermann floats onto the sea.
      http://www.sci-news.com/othersciences/geophysics/science-giant-ice-structures-greenland-ice-sheet-01993.html

      Reply
  94. Phil

     /  June 17, 2014

    Monthly PDO value for May comes in at 1.9, up from 1.13 in April.

    Reply
  95. Colorado Bob

     /  June 17, 2014

    Still rewriting the record books at Sioux Falls –
    POR back to 1890, so this is a significant record.
    TOTAL FOR MONTH: 12.97 inches

    THIS IS ALSO THE WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD
    BEATING 9.42 INCHES SET IN MAY OF 1898.

    Link

    Reply
    • james cole

       /  June 17, 2014

      Minnesota Public Radio ran a report on flooding in various parts of Eastern Dakotas and Western Minnesota. Rivers and some lakes are breaking their banks. Here in North East Minnesota we have had a snowy long winter and much rain since it stopped snowing. Lake Superior has gained back it’s normal levels after years of low levels.

      Reply
      • I’m from New Orleans; we’ll be looking forward to all that water coming down the Mississippi soon.

        Reply
    • We hit daily records here in southern Maryland as well…

      Reply
  96. Mark from New England

     /  June 17, 2014

    Acid Seas Threaten Creatures That Supply Half the World’s Oxygen

    New research findings could reveal what oceans of the future will look like. The picture is not rosy:

    http://www.commondreams.org/view/2014/06/17-2

    Reply
  97. Colorado Bob

     /  June 17, 2014

    The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts predicts that there is a 90% chance of an El Niño hitting this year. –

    See more at: http://www.rtcc.org/2014/06/16/el-nino-means-2014-could-be-hottest-year-ever/#sthash.oeWtTTgx.dpuf

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  June 17, 2014

      Good find Bob, but what’s with all the denialist comments! Perhaps you can politely set them straight😉

      Reply
    • bassman

       /  June 17, 2014

      NASA .76 hottest May on record beating .70 from 2010 and 2012.

      Reply
      • Al

         /  June 18, 2014

        Hi Bassman – re. “NASA .76 hottest May on record” – would you supply a link, please?

        Reply
    • Interesting report. Pacific surface heating up today. Have the Equatorial Pacific at +.74 C above 1979 to 2000 anomaly in the latest GFS report. Although we probably need stronger atmospheric feedbacks to kick the El Nino fully into gear.

      Reply
  98. bassman

     /  June 17, 2014

    .68 anomalies from here on out will make 2014 the warmest year on record for NASA GISS.

    Reply
  99. Andy (at work)

     /  June 17, 2014

    Greenland melt extent for yesterday reaching almost 40% coverage of the ice cap. Exceeding 2 std deviations now.

    http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

    Reply
  100. Scientists Close In On What’s Killing Sea Stars

    “Scientists have been working for months to find out what’s causing the massive die-off and now Harvell and others have evidence that an infectious disease caused by a bacteria or virus, may be at the root of the problem. The disease, they say, could be compounded by warming waters, which put the sea stars under stress, making them more vulnerable to the pathogen. ”

    http://kuow.org/post/scientists-close-cause-sea-star-wasting-syndrome?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=tweet

    Reply
  101. Kansas wheat harvest is 260 million bushels this season, down from 319 million bushels last year. Australia is down on volume, EU is up.

    The price is high, but if you check the futures look at the 2015 / 2016 commodity prices, the trend is quite apparent.

    http://www.agrimoney.com/futures.php?&page=quote&sym=ZWU14&name=Wheat

    Reply
  102. Hottest Spring On Record Globally, Reports Japan Meteorological Agency

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/06/17/3449871/hottest-spring-on-record/

    Reply
  103. Melt coverage for Greenland hit 40% yesterday. The image on the left (coverage area) is quite telling. We are still not at traditional season maximum (a week or 2 away).

    http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

    Reply
  1. 2012 Record Challenged as 40% of the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melts on June 17th | robertscribbler
  2. Arctic Sea Ice Steep Decline Continues | All Kind News

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