Hothouse Rains for Kashmir: Worst Flooding in More Than 60 Years Puts 450 Villages Under Water

Kasmir Floods September 5

(The hurricane over land like signature that has become all-too-common during recent years as the Earth has continued to warm is plainly visible over the Kashmir region on September 5 of 2014. A multi-day flooding event that is now the worst for this Central Asian state in more than 60 years. Image source: LANCE-MODIS.)

On Tuesday, a bank of thunderstorms fed by an atmospheric river of moisture off the Arabian Sea exploded into a mountain of cloud over Kashmir in Central Asia. The rains swept in and continued through Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday. A terrible flooding rain that has now killed 160 people, forced the evacuation of 2,500 villages and buried more than 450 villages under waters rising high enough to cover the hills.

River flooding has been so intense that flood level gauges have simply been buried, with towns and cities throughout the region facing catastrophic damage. In Srinagar, a Kashmiri city of 1.2 million souls, the situation today was dire. Union Minister Ragnath Singe, visited the scene earlier today but had to cancel an aerial tour due to ongoing severe weather keeping flights grounded:

“If there is so much devastation in the city, I wonder what would be the situation like in rural areas. I want to assure the people and the government of Jammu and Kashmir that the central government stands beside you in your hour of crisis and we extend all necessary help to you,” Singe noted.

The flood toll now includes more than 50 bridges, hundreds of kilometers of roads, and the loss of numerous power plants and sub stations due to inundation. Vast destruction of food crops is also underway, though with the rains still ongoing it is impossible to provide a full tally.

Minister Singe, amid assurances of full-scale mobilization to aid disaster victims and prevent loss of life has made a plea for 25,000 tents and 40,000 blankets to help provide shelter and care for the swelling ranks of refugees from this ongoing catastrophe.

Conditions in Context

Reported Instances of Extreme Weather since 1988
(Reported instances of extreme weather since 1988. Image source: University of Nottingham.)

Human-caused climate change greatly amplifies the conditions that lead to more intense rainfall and flooding events. For each 1 degree Celsius of temperature increase, the hydrological cycle intensifies by 8 percent. So evaporation events and rainfall events grow ever more intense as the world warms.

Though storms, on aggregate, dump 8 percent more rain, and evaporation sucks 8 percent more moisture up from the lands and ground, the uneven nature of weather results in a powerful amplification of extreme events. So what you end up with is both far more powerful severe storm systems and far more intense and rapidly asserting drought conditions.

We see these increasingly more dangerous events now at 0.85 C warming above the 1880s average. And we have locked in about 1.9 C warming this century and 3.8 C long-term warming due to the gasses we’ve already emitted. But continued fossil fuel burning will make the situation considerably worse.

Links:

Jammu and Kashmir Flood Toll Climbs to 160

Jammu and Kashmir Floods are Worst in Six Decades

LANCE-MODIS

University of Nottingham

How Climate Change Spurs Severe Weather

Hat-tip to Colorado Bob

Leave a comment

198 Comments

  1. Kevin Jones

     /  September 6, 2014

    Kashmir Times is reporting tragic stories. Too sad.

    Reply
  2. Carol

     /  September 7, 2014

    Robert, Regarding that chart from the U. of Nottingham: it’s very dramatic, and I’m assuming it’s referring to worldwide instances of extreme weather. I’d like to know what definition of extreme weather they’re using, or is there a common definition? Thanks!

    Reply
  3. Hi Robert, can you please point the exact source of the chart from the University of Nottingham? It is extremely important proof and it is the first time I see it. Thanks in advance!

    Reply
    • lesliegraham1

       /  September 7, 2014

      Same here – I’ve been hunting all over the net for it with no luck.
      What does it even mean?
      Is it global? What is the definition of ‘extreme’ and is it weighted to allow for better communications with countries like China for instance.
      As it stands it is just meaningless and perfect ammo for the Denial Industry.

      Reply
  4. Kevin Jones

     /  September 7, 2014

    blogs.nottingham.ac.ukmakingsciencepublic/2013/01/30extreme-weather-events/

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  September 7, 2014

      Kevin,

      Hello from across the state. Pretty intense thunderstorms yesterday – even a tornado warning!

      But I also wanted to let you know that the link you posted isn’t working for me, anyhow.

      Reply
    • lesliegraham1

       /  September 9, 2014

      Thanks Kevin

      At least the Nottingham Uni are honest enough to put their graph in context and report that it could be due to:

      “an increase in general media production, a media bandwagon effect and the ease with which images of extreme weather events and disasters can now be captured and disseminated online and be used to illustrate articles”

      It would have been helpfull if Robert had mentioned this and provided a link to the original source. I think it is important to be sceptical and probably even more important to be seen to be sceptical of graphs like this.

      Reply
  5. Kevin Jones

     /  September 7, 2014

    Hey, Mark. Sorry to you and others. Try on Google Making Science Public >> Extreme weather event, climate… (I’m wholly self-taught on this thing–and not that well!)
    Yes, Mark. I could hear that train of thunderstorms pass south of here….sounded intense but we got little precip or breeze. Very pleasant cool dry air just slipped in quickly and silently. What a relief.

    Reply
  6. Kevin Jones

     /  September 7, 2014

    What I did to find source was google Nottingham University extreme weather chart and then click on images and that chart was right there and so clicked on it…….

    Reply
    • lesliegraham1

       /  September 9, 2014

      I tried googling NU ‘extreme weather chart’ too but with no success.
      Anyway – apparantly it’s a graph of the increase in ‘extreme weather reports in newspapers’ and therefore about as much use as a chocolate teapot.
      In fact it’s worse than useless.
      Let’s hope not too many members of the denialist cult have spotted it as they wil have a field day debunking it and rightly so.
      It means nothing,

      Reply
  7. Kevin Jones

     /  September 7, 2014

    todaysguestis. Thanks very much for that.

    Reply
  8. Kevin Jones

     /  September 7, 2014

    bernard: Thanks for the lesson! To the relief of all I gotta go mow the the girlfriend’s lawn….(and try Not to think about the wrongness of it…… )

    Reply
  9. Kevin Jones

     /  September 7, 2014

    todaysguestis: Precisely! Thanks again.

    Reply
  10. Kevin Jones

     /  September 7, 2014

    dtlange. Thanks. I read once that Americans mow the equivalent of a New York State whenever they (we) do. I did live off the grid mostly for 25 years but ‘St. Pete’ won’t be happy to see me.

    Reply
  11. Kevin Jones

     /  September 7, 2014

    Robert, dtlange, “The cycle of the maple season is one of the great signifiers of the mountain year in the northeast. It is lovingly delineated here, with a foreshadowing of the shifts ahead in a changing world. May it move us to action.” Bill McKibben

    Bill’s praise for THE SUGAR SEASON Douglas Whynott De Capo Press 2014

    It was at this farm I worked my tail off seasonally from ’77 to ’98. Hoping to preserve the beautiful land from developers by helping make the farm successful. I failed to make my concerns clear and the place is now both hugely successful, but also the greatest carbon emitter within 75 miles…..(by my estimate) If at days end I go straight to Hell, it will be familiar terrain.

    Reply
  12. Griffin

     /  September 7, 2014

    This had been my first summer with a Fiskars push (reel) mower. I have been very surprised surprised at how good it works. It has been a good feeling to not use gas all summer long. I wish I would have bought one a long time ago.

    Reply
  13. Kevin Jones

     /  September 7, 2014

    Griffen. Heinberg & Mckibben and others suggest we should put all that cleared land into orchards and gardens (we suburbanites and urbanites) and work with our neighbors in mutual effort and enjoy the moment as we share our stories. Couldn’t agree more.
    When I began at Bascom’s Sugar House I was struck by the old abandoned horse and ox- hauled equipment. By the extraordinary planning and work required for fodder for the draft animals 24/7 365/yr a mere generation before. A Big Ford Tractor can sit still in the shed for six months without a feeding, and when needed at -28F on a February morning will with a shot of ether and a jumper cable start, fire right up. Thus freeing all that hay and pasture for our evermore numerous mouths…..All brought to us by the Magic of the Market and it’s requirement that petroleum absolutely positively HAS to be abiotic. “Cause if it’s origins are otherwise, WHAT a bunch of NAKED EMPERORS we’ve had and have on our and all the Worlds’ children’s hands……etc; and so little warning then about giving the Earth a fever…A Terrible, terrible fever.

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  September 7, 2014

      Your experience in agriculture gives you a unique perspective on our disconnect from our roots in farming and how nature works. It is sad to think of the horse drawn equipment and how us going away from it has certainly helped in our demise. On a similar note, Bill McKibbens latest book, Oil and Honey, is a good read. I was really stunned to learn that twice the percentage of our population is incarcerated than is full time farmers. There is much more to the book than that of course, but your story of the sugar house made me think of it.

      Reply
  14. Griffin

     /  September 7, 2014

    110 MPH winds in SW New Hampshire yesterday!!
    https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201409071912-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  September 7, 2014

      Griffin -thanks for posting that. My wife was running errands near there when it happened. I was surprised when my cell sounded a tornado warning. It was the most intense thunderstorm we’ve had here in years. Today is just the opposite – high pressure low humidity and temps in the 70s – perfect.

      Reply
      • Griffin

         /  September 7, 2014

        Yes Mark there sure was a lot of energy in the atmosphere yesterday. I was expecting more down where I am but all the big one’s stayed up north with you. The cells that dumped the downbursts looked absolutely huge frown down here in Mass. Big giant white anvils! We sure are looking good for the week though, sleeping weather is back again!

        Reply
  15. Kevin Jones

     /  September 7, 2014

    Dear Griffin. Bill Mckibben’s father along with John Kerry and my uncle’s wife were arrested on the Lexington Green protesting the Viet-Nam War. What SE Asians call The American War. Bill, then a ten year old, says he so wished to participate but was not allowed. I wasn’t either since I was enjoying a two year Federal Prison Sentence for refusing induction under Nixon’s draft and after Kent State. It’s been A Long Strange Trip, but Dammit, kids, you gotta be kind And Fight Like Hell!

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  September 7, 2014

      Kevin I really can’t imagine what it must have been like to be a young man in those times. And what a small world it is!

      Reply
    • Way to go, Kevin. Back then, 1970, I chose exile and resistance. Was glad to have the feds running around searching for me, and a little less on the war machine.
      And yes, young people need to pull their heads out of their Me-Phones and Me-Pads, or their world will be gone forever. No climate — no nothing. Old folks have to.keep a good pace too. We’re all in this together.

      Reply
  16. Kevin Jones

     /  September 7, 2014

    Griffin. My turn to imagine what it’s about to be like for you and your cohert. And how I may assist. In this smalling world…..

    Reply
  17. Colorado Bob

     /  September 7, 2014

    Gallery of pictures –
    Devastating Floods in Kashmir Create Rising Death Toll
    At least 175 people died after heavy rains sent rivers over their banks, flooding homes, military bases and hospitals.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/devastating-floods-kashmir-create-rising-death-toll-n197826

    Reply
  18. Kevin Jones

     /  September 8, 2014

    Thanks, Colorado. Good night all. Gotta go mend horse fences for an internet free week.

    then on to the ‘United Nations. Robert! How may I locate you?

    Reply
  19. Kevin Jones

     /  September 8, 2014

    Colorado Bob. Good Night Medina Town. That sign from your Kashmir Gallery
    Sweet Great Spirit! over & out & this time i really mean it.

    Reply
  20. Apneaman

     /  September 8, 2014

    ATLAS OF MORTALITY AND
    ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM WEATHER,
    CLIMATE AND WATER EXTREMES
    (1970–2012)

    http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/transfer/2014.06.12-WMO1123_Atlas_120614.pdf

    Reply
  21. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits flood-hit areas

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-29105369

    Reply
  22. Tom

     /  September 8, 2014

    How long does it take to “moderate” a comment, Robert?

    Reply
    • rayduray

       /  September 10, 2014

      I’ve got one stuck in moderation as well. Apparently this system doesn’t trust us to post more than one URL per comment.

      Reply
  23. Japan dengue outbreak traced to Tokyo’s Yoyogi Park, experts warn global warming could increase spread of mosquito-borne virus

    http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/international/2014-09-08/japan-dengue-outbreak-traced-to-tokyos-yoyogi-park-experts-warn-global-warming-could-increase-spread/1365627

    Reply
  24. Colorado Bob

     /  September 8, 2014

    Flooding death toll jumps as India offers help to Pakistan

    Offer to Pakistan

    Modi also offered help to Pakistanis living across the border in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, which has also been lashed by heavy rains and flooding.

    “It is a matter of great distress that the retreating monsoon rains have played havoc in many parts of our two countries,” he wrote in a letter to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, adding that “the devastation caused by the record rains and the consequent flooding is unprecedented.”

    http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/08/world/asia/india-pakistan-monsoon-floods/

    Reply
  25. Colorado Bob

     /  September 8, 2014

    This year is shaping up to be one of the most expensive for New Zealand’s insurers, with weather-related damage costing more than $135 million so far.

    New data released by the Insurance Council of New Zealand today showed 2014 was looking to be one of the costliest years for the country’s insurers, with seven major weather events contributing to $135m worth of claims.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/10472363/Extreme-weather-costs-insurers-135m

    Reply
  26. Colorado Bob

     /  September 8, 2014

    The details start dribbling out –
    In a record of sorts, Anantnag gets 286 mm rainfall in 7 hours
    HT Correspondent, Hindustan Times Srinagar, September 05, 2014

    South Kashmir’s Anantnag district witnessed highest rainfall of 286 mm from 8:30 am till 2:30 pm on Thursday, while Srinagar received 88 mm during the same period.

    http://www.hindustantimes.com/punjab/jandk/in-a-record-of-sorts-anantnag-gets-286-mm-rainfall-in-7-hours/article1-1260248.aspx

    Reply
  27. Colorado Bob

     /  September 8, 2014

    Storms that flooded several Phoenix-area freeways and numerous local streets during the Monday morning commute set an all-time record for rainfall in Phoenix in a single day.

    The National Weather Service recorded 2.99 inches of rain by about 7 a.m., breaking the old record of 2.91 inches set in 1933.

    The Monday morning rainfall also eclipsed Phoenix’s average total rainfall of 2.71 inches for Phoenix’s entire summer rainy season.

    Link

    Reply
  28. Colorado Bob

     /  September 8, 2014

    Like weeds of the sea, ‘brown tide’ algae exploit nutrient-rich coastlines
    Date:
    September 5, 2014
    Source:
    The Earth Institute at Columbia University
    Summary:
    A new study highlights up close the survival skills that have made Aureococcus anophagefferens the bane of fishermen, boaters and real-estate agents. Building on previous mapping of Aureococcus’ genome, the study confirms that the genes previously hypothesized to help Aureococcus survive in murky nutrient-rich waters, switch on in conditions typical of estuaries degraded by human activity.
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/09/140905153013.htm

    Reply
  29. Ah, the lexicon of avoiding harsh realities — with total abstinence toward prevention:

    Government by euphemism? US cities prepare for climate change but avoid those dangerous words
    GRAND HAVEN, Mich. – Climate change remains a political minefield across the U.S., despite the strong scientific consensus that it’s happening, so some local leaders have hit upon a way of preparing for the potentially severe consequences without triggering explosions of partisan warfare: Just call it something else.

    In many communities across America, especially strongholds of conservative politics, they’re planning for the volatile weather linked to rising temperatures by speaking of “sustainability” or “resilience,” while avoiding no-win arguments with skeptics over whether the planet is warming or that human activity is responsible.

    Big cities and small towns are shoring up dams and dikes, using roof gardens to absorb rainwater or upgrading sewage treatment plans to prevent overflows. Others are planting urban forests, providing more shady relief from extreme heat and helping farmers deal with an onslaught of new crop pests.

    The pattern illustrates a growing disconnect between the debate still raging in politics and the reality on the ground. In many city planning departments, it has become the issue that cannot be named…
    http://www.squamishchief.com/government-by-euphemism-us-cities-prepare-for-climate-change-but-avoid-those-dangerous-words-1.1347324

    Reply
  30. Colorado Bob

     /  September 8, 2014
    Reply
  31. Wow, having read comments from folks on here regarding the tenuous state of gas/oil drillers I read this article. This bubble will pop, and badly.

    “Halcon spent $3.40 for every dollar it earned from operations in the 12 months through June 30.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-08/halcon-s-wilson-drills-more-debt-than-oil-in-shale-bet.html

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  September 9, 2014

      Boom and bust, every oil boom has had a bust . Everyone.
      I know, I was in one, when I was in my late 20’s I could quit a job, and go to work the next day. By 1983, I was starving and out of work in central Miss.

      When I got back to Texas, I read the “7 Sisters”. Great book .
      It’s central message –

      “Boom and bust, every oil boom has had a bust . Everyone.”

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  September 9, 2014

        “Boom and bust, every oil boom has had a bust . Everyone.”

        This is why Karl Marx was drawn to “central planning”. Except he failed to think about that thieves and morons would do the “central planning”.

        Our world suffers deeply , from a 19th century hangover. We have no idea of the way forward. “A” or “B” . That is our choice.
        I have yet to read , an idea that shows the “C” way. I figure, nature culls the herd. Then we discuss economic systems.
        Then as Albert said, we fight each other again with rocks.

        Reply
  32. Jay M

     /  September 9, 2014

    The Phoenix flooding is from Norbert, the ill mannered hurricane that ran up western Baja California and then veered to the east below Ensenada. Has summoned some monsoon moisture into the flood plain suburbia of Maricopa county.

    Reply
  33. Colorado Bob

     /  September 9, 2014

    Looking at the radar tonight out of Norfolk , another disaster is under way. The pictures tomorrow will be grim.

    Reply
  34. Tools of the trade In the news:
    NCAR Enhances Big Data for Climate and Weather Researchers

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has recently implemented an enhanced data sharing service that allows scientists increased access to data as well as improved capabilities for collaborative research. In addition to data sharing, NCAR has significantly upgraded its centralized file service, known as the Globally Accessible Data Environment (GLADE)…
    The data sharing service leverages the capabilities of Globus Plus to increase customization options for storage as well as data sharing. Globus, a project of the Computation Institute (a partnership of The University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory), is a software service that has been described as a dropbox for big data. It is broadly used in the scientific community. “Plus” refers to a new feature that allows researchers to share data with colleagues outside of their home institutions, greatly improving ease of collaborative work.
    http://www.scientificcomputing.com/news/2014/09/ncar-enhances-big-data-climate-and-weather-researchers

    Reply
  35. Today Is the Wettest Day Ever in Phoenix

    ” So far today, 3.29 inches of rain has fallen in the desert city, which makes it the wettest calendar day on record there. This smashed the previous record of 2.91 inches, which was set in 1931.”

    http://mashable.com/2014/09/08/phoenix-rain-wettest-day-on-record/

    Reply
  36. Tom

     /  September 9, 2014

    Oh, I see. By “moderate” you mean “censor.”

    Reply
  37. Joni

     /  September 9, 2014

    http://www.thelocal.ch/20140909/greenhouse-gas-emissions-hit-new-record-wmo

    “Surging levels of carbon dioxide sent greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to a new record in 2013, while oceans, which absorb the emissions, have become more acidic than ever, the UN’s Geneva-based weather agency said on Tuesday.”

    “Global concentrations of CO2, the main culprit in global warming, soared to 396 parts per million last year, or 142 percent of pre-industrial levels — defined as before 1750.”

    “That marked a hike of 2.9 parts per million between 2012 and 2013 alone — the largest annual increase in 30 years, according to the Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.”

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  September 9, 2014

      Still on track for that worse-case scenario…

      Reply
      • Joni

         /  September 9, 2014

        I’d say that we’re above and beyond the IPCC’s watered down worst case, but NTE / Venus scenario being advocated by a few people is just as unrealistic as those that claim the climate isn’t changing as a result of human actions.

        In short we’re f’d, worse than we know or even beyond our current ability to know, but there will be no coming oblivion for the doomers to rejoice in.

        Reply
      • Mark from New England

         /  September 9, 2014

        Joni – I guess we can take some small pleasure in telling the deniers: “Told you so”. But then again perhaps the tide is turning, witness the DA’s acquittal of the Massachusetts lobster blockade.

        Reply
  38. Cities can prepare for climate change, as long as they don’t say the words “climate change”.

    http://cjonline.com/news/2014-09-08/cities-taking-action-offset-effects-global-warming-they-cant-call-it

    Reply
  39. Nancy

     /  September 9, 2014

    Robert, this is very important news from Massachusetts. A couple of guys used a lobster boat to block a coal delivery barge from delivering to a power plant in Southeastern Mass. They were brought to trial yesterday, but the DA dropped the charged as the trial was beginning. And in the best news of all, the DA publicly announced he would be going to the New York City climate rally because climate change is the gravest crisis our planet is facing. The defendants used the ‘necessity’ defense meaning it was necessary to block the coal to prevent worse climate change. This case could have implications around the globe. Truly amazing news!
    http://lobsterboatblockade.org/

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  September 9, 2014

      Yes, when I saw this report in today’s Boston Globe I almost spat out my yogurt! May it be precedent setting!

      Reply
  40. Mark from New England

     /  September 9, 2014

    Not surprising, but new report on birds endangered by climate change:

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/09/north-america-birds-extinction-study-climate-change

    As an avid birder, this is very disturbing, but then I’ve been living with this knowledge for years. I’m enjoying the southern species that have moved into New England the last decade or so; like the Carolina Wren and Red-bellied Woodpecker. It’s the species that require dense unbroken forest (and those needing open grasslands) that are most in trouble.

    Reply
  41. Yeah, Robert. Good headline. Keep using the term hothouse, pointed and accurate.

    Reply
  42. More on the floods in Arizona

    Deadly Once-in-1,000-Years Rains Wipe Out Roads in Arizona, Nevada

    http://mashable.com/2014/09/09/arizona-nevada-deadly-rains/?utm_cid=mash-com-Tw-main-link

    Reply
  43. A 09/09 Press Release from the World Meteorological Organization:

    Record Greenhouse Gas Levels Impact Atmosphere and Oceans
    Carbon Dioxide Concentration Surges

    Geneva, 9 September 2014 (WMO) – The amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2013, propelled by a surge in levels of carbon dioxide. This is according to the World Meteorological Organization’s annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, which injected even greater urgency into the need for concerted international action against accelerating and potentially devastating climate change.
    The Greenhouse Gas Bulletin showed that between 1990 and 2013 there was a 34% increase in radiative forcing – the warming effect on our climate – because of long-lived greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide.

    In 2013, concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was 142% of the pre-industrial era (1750), and of methane and nitrous oxide 253% and 121% respectively.

    The observations from WMO’s Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) network showed that CO2 levels increased more between 2012 and 2013 than during any other year since 1984. Preliminary data indicated that this was possibly related to reduced CO2 uptake by the earth’s biosphere in addition to the steadily increasing CO2 emissions…

    https://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_1002_en.html

    Reply
  44. Kevin Jones

     /  September 9, 2014

    http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh/mailings/20140909 GibsonLobsterBoat.pdf

    Hope I did this right. I do like this man….

    Reply
  45. Colorado Bob

     /  September 10, 2014

    Shift in Arabia sea plankton may threaten fisheries

    A growing “dead zone” in the middle of the Arabian Sea has allowed plankton uniquely suited to low- oxygen water to take over the base of the food chain. Their rise to dominance over the last decade could be disastrous for the predator fish that sustain 120 million people living on the sea’s edge. ………………………………….. Until recently, photosynthetic diatoms supported the Arabian Sea food chain. Zooplankton grazed on the diatoms, a type of algae, and were in turn eaten by fish. In the early 2000s, it all changed. The researchers began to see vast blooms of Noctiluca and a steep drop in diatoms and dissolved oxygen in the water column. Within a decade, Noctiluca had virtually replaced diatoms at the base of the food chain, marking the start of a colossal ecosystem shift. …………………………………. The study has attributed much of Noctiluca’s rise to growing sewage flows into the Arabian Sea, an intriguing connection that should be followed up on, says Andrew Juhl, a microbiologist at Lamont-Doherty who was not involved in the study. “It’s unusual for Noctiluca to bloom in the open sea and return year after year,” he said “All of these observations suggest that something dramatic has changed in the Arabian Sea.”

    Link

    Reply
  46. Kevin Jones

     /  September 10, 2014

    It’s a great story by James Hansen on his web site. I copied the address exactly as it came to me on gmail. Sorry again.

    Reply
  47. Kevin Jones

     /  September 10, 2014

    Mckibben tweets there are 374 buses and trains coming to the UN Sept. 21. 1500 demonstrations in 130 countries Sept. 21-22

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  September 10, 2014

      I’m so bummed I threw my back out a few days ago. About the only marching I’ll be doing is between the office and the bathroom. I’ll try doing my part for the cause in some other way. Have a good time Kevin!

      Reply
  48. Tom

     /  September 10, 2014

    Kevin Jones: don’t forget to follow up on the impact it has in about a month (I predict “none”).

    Oh, I guess I better modify my comment to add hopium or it will be “moderated” out of existence for “not helping.”

    Kevin Jones: I await your follow up message to these protests indicating the complete reversal of the ways of corporate extraction, production and distribution and especially the huge change in energy production to completely clean, non-fossil fuel related, renewable energy! A bright future awaits .. . .. . ….. .. ..

    Reply
    • The recent article by Chris Hedges in the link below describes how the protest could be just the starting point for something effective:

      “We have known about the deleterious effects of carbon emissions for decades. The first IPCC report was published in 1990. Yet since the beginning of the Kyoto Protocol Era in the late 1980s, we have emitted as much carbon dioxide as was emitted in the prior 236 years. The rising carbon emissions and the extraction of tar sands—and since the industry has figured out how to transport tar sands without building the northern leg of the Keystone XL pipeline, this delivery seems assured—will continue no matter how many police-approved marches are held. Play by the rules and we lose.

      “Resistance will come from those willing to breach police barricades. Resistance will mean jail time and direct confrontation. Resistance will mean physically disrupting the corporate machinery. Resistance will mean severing ourselves from the dominant culture to build small, self-sustaining communities. This resistance will be effective only when we refuse to do what we are told, when we turn from a liberal agenda of reform to embrace a radical agenda of revolt.

      http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/the_last_gasp_of_climate_change_liberals_20140831

      (Tried to post this in reply to Robert’s previous article, but for some reason my comment did not appear.)

      Reply
    • utoutback

       /  September 10, 2014

      Protests against the Viet Nam War began with mass marches and gatherings and eventually resulted in changed policy. But, the policy changed because so many young men had a personal stake (being drafted and sent). Unfortunately, with climate change the apparent short term loss is on the other side, as stopping carbon fuels results in short term economic disruption and suffering with the gains coming in the longer term.
      I am not hopeful, because it is very difficult to get people to buy into policies that promise positive outcomes at some later date, especially when those outcomes can’t be quantified. And, threats of “doom” in the future are not so good at motivating people in the present until the pain is imminent.
      Change is coming, but I think there will be quite a bit more suffering first.

      Reply
      • Mark from New England

         /  September 10, 2014

        Exactly some of the points made by George Marshall in his new book. He does believe these tendencies can be overcome, but it will take hard work.

        Reply
    • mikkel

       /  September 10, 2014

      Well if that’s your measurement then obviously you’ll be disappointed. It’s the equivalent of needing to lose 200 lbs and changing your lifestyle so that after a few weeks you’ve lost 5 lbs and then you go to weight watchers and get upset that you won’t lose the other 195 pounds in a few meetings.

      If they use the marches to get people inspired and then build up support networks that undertake action on a daily basis, and provide a way to help grow the movement organically, then it is an important step. You don’t need to have the corporations change, you just need enough of the populace to have a change in mindset…that takes time and strength.

      Reply
  49. New research, published today (9 September 2014) in the International Journal of Climatology, shows that weather patterns over the UK have become distinctly more unstable, resulting in contrasting conditions from very mild, wet and stormy to extremely cold and snowy.

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-09-british-weather-unsettled.html#jCp

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  September 10, 2014

      The ‘Storms of my Grandchildren’ will be coming a bit sooner for the UK. What a shame, it’s a beautiful country. Instead of climate refugees clamoring to enter England, it may be refugees from England looking to move to Spain for a while… (until it totally dries out as predicted).

      Reply
  50. Colorado Bob

     /  September 10, 2014

    The Weather Channel reported rainfall rates of more than five inches per hour in Nebraska.

    http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/severe-weather-tracker-page#severe-blog

    Reply
  51. Colorado Bob

     /  September 10, 2014

    This Legendary Accounting Firm Just Ran the Numbers on Climate Change
    We’re 20 years away from catastrophe, says PricewaterhouseCoopers.

    http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/09/climate-change-pricewaterhouse

    Reply
    • Bernard

       /  September 10, 2014

      Bob, that article states …

      “But carbon intensity fell by only 1.2 percent in 2013.”

      … while the WMO report states …

      “The observations from WMO’s Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) network showed that CO2 levels increased more between 2012 and 2013 than during any other year since 1984.”

      So either one of them is wrong or the positive feedback is taking over.

      Reply
      • mikkel

         /  September 10, 2014

        Good catch. Carbon intensity = Carbon/GDP

        So for example, for 2013 i found “Global emissions due to fossil fuel alone are set to grow this year at a slightly lower pace of 2.1%” but global GDP grew at about 3% so the “intensity went down”

        I just found a headline blaring that China’s intensity dropped over 5%…but of course their emissions rose several percent. It also says “The Chinese government has pledged a 40-45 per cent cut in carbon dioxide intensity by 2020 from the levels in 2005”

        So two things: 1) it looks like they’re trying to switch the metric and say “if we’re rich enough then climate change doesn’t matter…so we shouldn’t focus on cutting overall as much as a GDP/cut balance” and 2) a huge percentage of the ‘improvement’ in intensity comes from financialization of the economy, so they’re taking partial credit without changing much of anything.

        Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  September 10, 2014

        Bernard, the WMO report also states that the oceans haven’t been this acidic in 300 million years. The real kicker in the last 24 hours has been that study from the Arabian sea (Shift in Arabia sea plankton may threaten fisheries) , the base of an entire food chain has flipped in just a decade. I recommend reading it carefully.
        Robert has written often on the oceans turning on us, and that nasty little creature that has high-jacked an area the size of Texas between Oman and India fits the bill.
        It got it’s start 1.5 billion years ago. In a very low oxygen world.

        I worries me deeply , if the system is indeed breaking down , this study points in that direction.

        Reply
      • Bernard

         /  September 11, 2014

        Thanks mikkel.

        Bob, just read the Wikipedia page for Noctiluca scintillans. They secrete ammonia, that’s just fantastic.

        Reply
  52. Colorado Bob

     /  September 10, 2014

    Former Army General Lambasts Oil Industry for ‘Hijacking’ Democracy
    By Zoë Schlanger
    Filed: 9/9/14 at 6:54 AM

    After a BP executive lambasted “opportunistic” environmentalists and journalistic “sensationalism” from a podium in front of hundreds of environmental journalists in a New Orleans ballroom Wednesday evening, Russel Honore could not hide his disgust. Taking the podium some time after, Honore, a retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General, had harsh words for the oil and gas industry. In the four years that has passed since the BP oil spill, Honore has run out of patience with energy companies that he says have “hijacked” his state.

    “They have hijacked our damn democracy. They lobby, they write the laws.”

    Environmental impacts of the BP spill and other energy activities should not be downplayed, he said. “Regardless of what that kemo-sabe told you, that dolphin took a hit” from the Gulf oil disaster, Honore said, referring to Geoff Morrell, the BP communications executive who spoke before him.

    http://www.newsweek.com/former-army-general-lambasts-oil-industry-hijacking-democracy-269086

    Reply
  53. Colorado Bob

     /  September 10, 2014

    Pakistani authorities have breached a strategic dyke in flood-affected Punjab to ease pressure on flood defences downstream and protect urban areas.

    More than 700,000 villagers have been forced to flee their homes.

    Much of the water is reaching Pakistan from Indian-administered Kashmir where flood levels are now falling.

    There have been chaotic scenes at one of the region’s main airports, Srinagar, as tourists and migrant workers struggle to leave.

    The death toll in the two countries has passed 450, with troops deployed to rescue people and provide assistance.

    Link

    Reply
  54. Colorado Bob

     /  September 10, 2014

    As of 8 am EDT Wednesday, 10.54″ was recorded in 12 hours in Browning, MO, with 9.61″ inches falling at Chillicothe. Moisture from Norbert will spread all the way into Michigan’s Upper Peninsula on Wednesday afternoon, and an Areal Flood Watch is posted there for flooding rains of 1 – 3″.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2792#commenttop

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  September 10, 2014

      Moisture from a hurricane causing flooding rains in the UP. I can confidently say that I have never heard, nor even imagined that I would hear of such a thing before. If a storm that fizzled out off the coast of Baja can cause this much destruction that far inland with it’s rain, things will be very interesting when the next real hurricane makes landfall and continues inland.

      Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  September 10, 2014

      RWood, yes, that’s a good summary. I saw him speak in Boston last week. If you have a chance, I highly recommend seeing him.

      Reply
  55. These days, it gets harder and harder to look at the truncated meander of the jet stream. Without a cold Arctic, it has little to energize it.

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  September 10, 2014

      That’s what passes for a jet stream these days eh? Will be an interesting fall and winter in the northern hemisphere…

      Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  September 10, 2014

      Tipping Points ?

      Reply
    • mikkel

       /  September 10, 2014

      “While the liberal climate agenda is rooted in compromise with policy-makers and playing nice with corporations, a radical climate agenda must take the small disparate pieces of the existing climate movement and grow them exponentially to become a fierce counterbalance to the fossil fuel industry.”

      I think the issue is even more fundamental than this. The liberal approach is to try to convince the populace through rational discussion and building consensus. I question this approach because it doesn’t take into account ideologies and existential aims.

      For instance, about 25% of Americans believe rapture will happen in their lifetime. http://www.religioustolerance.org/godpoll.htm

      Obviously, whether global warming is “real” or not is immaterial if the world won’t be around to feel the effects. In fact I’ve come across many sites that sound very much like the green vision of localization, resiliency, etc. but explicitly state it’s to survive the next few decades until the Second Coming. In their minds, economic, political and environmental turmoil is just the collective signs of the End Times.

      Then there is a large group who believe that following “commandments” such as be fruitful and multiply take precedence over any material state. They say that God wouldn’t let things get as bad as scientists say and any large scale problem is punishment for disobedience. To these people, even if we’re all doomed as a species, they need to make sure to diligently follow the “commandments” so they get into heaven. Material considerations have no bearing on the immortal soul.

      And on the secular side you have a small but influential group who sees history as ever changing and merely looks to exploit those changes. Not only is the question of global warming “reality” immaterial, but it’s almost hoped for, simply so they can cravenly exploit the gains. I’ve read articles of these types saying that the melting of the Arctic is the greatest gold rush in history, and even flooding of cities is seen as opportunity to speculate on rebuilds. These people value being at the top of the heap, no matter what the circumstances of the bottom.

      In addition, you also have the secular equivalent of rapture, which is the singularity, and a growing number of people (particularly in SV) believe that working towards that is the be all and end all. In their minds, we must keep on the path we are going on because in 30-40 years we’ll have created an AI God who will unlock the secrets of the universe and by the time climate change has appreciable effect, our physical bodies won’t even be particularly important — plus we’ll probably all be in space or living on different planets.

      All together, I’d guess this easily corresponds to close to 50% of the populace, if not more, and is the thread of many of the most powerful political demographics. The problem is that polls tend to focus on facts and external opinion, without accounting for core ideological beliefs. So it’s difficult to even get a grip on the size of the issue.

      Regardless, no amount of rational argument will appreciably change behavior of these camps, because even *if* they are convinced, their world view mandates continuation

      Reply
      • mikkel

         /  September 10, 2014

        Actually, I shouldn’t have used the word “rational” above. There is a tendency by secular materialists to use rational as a synonym for scientific humanism, when in fact it is just a mental process. I try not to fall into this trap, but sometimes do.

        For example, here is a link (http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/05/inquiring-minds-katharine-hayhoe-faith-climate) about an Evangelical scientist who is trying to convince people to care by pointing to scripture that explains believing the End Times are near does not absolve one of continuing to care for yourself and each other. In fact, while it is not presented in the article, there are multiple historical admonishments against anyone who proclaims they know that Armageddon is near, because only God does. Communicating that you know is actually a sign of being a false prophet.

        And then she also points out how catastrophic climate change is a necessary possibility when incorporating Free Will.

        Both of these arguments are rational, because they are logical in the belief system that the Evangelicals hold. It is just that they aren’t secular and humanistic. Once she establishes a baseline belief connection about what she is saying, then she moves on to the scientific evidence to demonstrate the need for action.

        So I’m not saying that the situation is impossible, merely that it’s not a case of organizational strategy or power dynamics or coming up with the right rhetoric; it is about reframing the debate within different ideologies, many of which hold assumptions that are antithetical to liberal thought.

        Reply
      • Apneaman

         /  September 11, 2014

        mikkel
        You should start a site to so we can keep score, cargoculttracker.org, You would never want for material and there would be new additions after each disaster. I’d be a regular visitor.

        Reply
  56. Colorado Bob

     /  September 10, 2014

    For instance, about 25% of Americans believe rapture will happen in their lifetime.

    Terrifying video captures Nevada flood sweeping van, passengers off interstate into ravine

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/09/10/terrifying-video-captures-nevada-flood-sweeping-van-passengers-off-interstate-into-ravine/

    By the way, The term ” the rapture ” does not appear in the Bible. They both survived and did not go directly to heaven. Although, they are 2 old people who should be dead.

    Reply
    • mikkel

       /  September 10, 2014

      Yeah but most of the people who believe this don’t really seem to know that their view arose only during 19th century Revivalism.

      I found this wikipedia article on the different camps and their historical evolution to be interesting

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapture

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  September 10, 2014

        Before we all became bible thumpers in the 1840’s every man , woman , and child , was drinking nearly 40 gallons of whiskey a year. . And we had drank like that since since 1620, when those folks on the Mayflower ran out of beer. And had to find a place to land.

        Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  September 10, 2014

        The whole “Looking for God” theme is BS. In 1607 the 2 most important men at Jamestown were goldsmiths.

        Reply
      • mikkel

         /  September 11, 2014

        Sounds like the US to me!

        Reply
    • I don’t know about rapture — but maybe many will experience hypoxia in a dysfunctional atmosphere. Who knows? Our brains will be sending strange messages to our cognitive side, Something like that.
      AMF

      Reply
  57. Jay M

     /  September 11, 2014

    but isn’t whiskey one of the first examples of Moore’s Law?

    Reply
  58. Colorado Bob

     /  September 11, 2014

    This whole we are a “Christian Nation” meme , is a fiction . We came here to make money, and escape death. If we left Europe because someone was trying to kill us , it wasn’t a pack of howling atheists that chased our forefathers from the old world. It was another pack of Christians , doing the same thing we see today.

    I know, one of my forebears was on a ship wrecked in 1739 at the mouth of the Chesapeake on a ship called the “Oliver” . He, and a brother fled Lake Como when Duke of Milan , tried to purge everyone who didn’t think like him.

    My mother was a genealogist for over 40 years

    The wreck of the “Oliver” was printed in the Williamsburg Gazette the first newspaper in America.

    1739 was the last wave of Huguenots. There had been 2 waves before them .

    If we are “Christian Nation” it’s because other “Christians” were trying to kill us.

    Reply
  59. Colorado Bob

     /  September 11, 2014

    I have a fat red book my mother wrote about these men . It’s called ” The Torian Family History”.

    If that one young man had died that night , thousands of Americans would have never been born.
    Including me.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  September 11, 2014

      When they got to America , they changed their names. They went from Torino to Torian.
      Tens of thousands of people did this.

      Look at your last name , there a great reason to think , you may have this same vein.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  September 11, 2014

        Virginia is full of rich Torians ,but there is zero one rich Torino.

        This guy crossed the Alps, from Lake Como down the Rhine to get to America. He was held in a death camp at Rotterdam.
        The Dutch held all the Huguenots at Rotterdam , for months. there they died like flies . They were drinking bad water.

        The ship they boarded was over loaded , it sailed into Plymouth to declare their loyalty to the King. The captain quit , saying the ship was dangerously over loaded. They reloaded the Oliver. It took them 3 months to cross the Atlantic They arrived in January. in a storm.

        There they ship wrecked at Glen Haven Bay, Virgina 274 years ago.

        The captain died , the first mate died, know one knew how to sail the ship. Other ships saw them off the coast , all of this was in America’s first Newspaper.

        If my Torian had died, I would have never written this tale. My mother took over 30 years to learn this story.

        Reply
  60. Colorado Bob

     /  September 11, 2014

    Robert,
    You do know where Glenn Haven Bay is . The wreck of the “Oliver” is the mud Just off shore, They saved only their lives Everything else is still there. It’s a complete ship from the mid 18th century.

    The “Oliver” made 3 trips into Charleston before she was lost.
    My mother could find any bit of information that ever caught her fancy.

    Reply
  61. California Drought Could Claim Quarter of Rice Crop

    California’s ongoing drought is claiming another victim: the state’s rice crop.
    Nearly 25 percent of California’s $5 billion rice crop will be lost this year due to lack of water, say experts. And while analysts say the loss is not a crisis just yet, at least one rice producer is ready to call it a day.
    “If we keep going through this drought, it may make us quit and sell the ranch,” said Sherry Polit, who grows organic rice with her family on 1,500 acres in the Northern California town of Maxwell.
    “We had droughts before, but this is like the third bad one in a row,” explained Polit, who also grows organic olives.
    http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/california-drought/california-drought-could-claim-quarter-rice-crop-n200326

    Reply
  62. Canadian city of Calgary struggles with late summer snowfall

    CALGARY Alberta (Reuters) – The Canadian city of Calgary, Alberta, home to much of the country’s oil and gas industry, suffered through a late-summer snowfall on Wednesday that snarled traffic, downed trees and cut power to dozens of neighborhoods.

    Nestled in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains, the city of 1.2 million is used to bizarre weather and heavy snowfalls are common in the winter months. But the early September storm, which has so far dumped as much as 35 centimeters (14 inches) of snow since Monday, is unusually early and especially damaging because the wet, heavy snow is landing on trees still thick with leaves.

    http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCAKBN0H51V820140910

    Reply
    • Apneaman

       /  September 11, 2014

      I’m one of three generations born in Calgary. It is unusually early, but not unheard of. Today, my Mom said she remembers a July snow from way back in the olden days. Deniers are using the snow to debunk “the models” no one I asked has provided a link to “the models” as of yet.

      Reply
    • A good Chinook in January should offset that🙂

      Calgary is a great city, been there lots and it was always more fun than Edmonton. However I spent more time in Red Deer… nuff said there….

      Reply
  63. Gerald Spezio

     /  September 11, 2014

    mikkel, with some trepidation that Colo Bob will berate me for intellectualizing.
    It IS very simple.

    All of it can be subsumed under a simple heading.

    Stanislav Andreski made this simple claim in his 1972 book, SOCIAL SCIENCE AS SORCERY.

    “Many of our worst mistakes do not come from poor reasoning or bad logic. They result from a faulty premise & proneness to delusion.”

    Reply
    • mikkel

       /  September 11, 2014

      Or as my grandma says when I complain something about the world not making sense, “it makes sense for the people who made it that way.”

      Of course she suffered depression and alcoholism for decades, which she traces back to her fundamentalist upbringing scaring her into believing she would go to hell for being critical about the nature of God and Church. It only stopped when my uncle came out (after nearly committing suicide) and she realized that God would want her to love her children first and foremost, so obviously the Church was fallible.

      Reply
      • utoutback

         /  September 11, 2014

        I have a bumper sticker: “Don’t believe everything you think.”

        Reply
      • Hi Mikkel,
        I have had problems with your email over the last couple of weeks. It seems your email server keeps rejecting your email address. So nothing personal🙂

        Reply
  64. Greg Smith

     /  September 11, 2014

    Ongoing flooding in Memphis. Radar indicates plenty more rain in hours ahead:
    http://www.weather.com/safety/floods/memphis-tennessee-flooding-20140911

    Reply
  65. Wildfires burned 567 square miles in Washington
    By Associated Press
    Published: September 11, 2014, 11:42 AM

    TACOMA — Wildfires this summer in Washington have burned about 567 square miles. Last year wildfires burned about 156 square miles in the state.

    State Forester Aaron Everett says this year’s scorched acreage is about six times the five-year average of 95 square miles. He also says the state has spent more than $100 million on wildfires through August. The Department of Natural Resources’ fire suppression budget is about $25 million.

    http://www.columbian.com/news/2014/sep/11/wildfires-burned-567-square-miles-in-washington/

    Reply
  66. Jacque

     /  September 11, 2014

    This comment is from a Utah resident who regularly reads Scribbler and I am impressed this very red state has a candidate running on the sole issue of acting now on climate change:

    WHO: Bill Barron is a candidate for U.S. Congress, District 2 in Utah (unaffiliated)

    WHAT: Bill Barron Running for Congress – Riding for Climate

    HOW: Nine-day bike tour of the District from Salt Lake City to Torrey, Utah

    WHEN: Beginning Friday, Sept. 5 2:00 p.m. and finishing Saturday, Sept. 13 4:00 p.m.

    “I am focused as a single-issue candidate because I believe that climate change is the most important issue of our time. My candidacy provides an opportunity for citizens to make a statement to Washington: they want our nation’s leaders to step up and take significant action. Now.” http://barron2014.com/climate600/

    Reply
  67. Colorado Bob

     /  September 11, 2014

    Report: Climate change transforming Rocky Mountain forests

    Drought and heat alone harm forests, but are also contributing factors in what the report called a “triple assault” on Rocky Mountain forests: bark beetles, widespread wildfires and the rate of trees dying without any known reason.

    Bark beetle outbreaks are killing trees at a faster rate than seen in over 100 years of records.
    Between 1984 and 2011, the number of annual wildfires larger than 1,000 acres increased 73 percent.
    “The rate at which western trees have died from no obvious cause—such as insect infestations or wildfire—has doubled in recent decades, with a sharp increase in recent years.”

    The report uses Whitebark pines, Aspens and Pinon pines as key examples, finding:

    Whitebark pines are in a catastrophic decline and qualify for protection under the Endangered Species Act.
    Pinon pines have already suffered a mass die-off due to drought and heat during 2002-2003.
    If changes continue, the amount of land suitable for Aspens could decline by about 61 percent.
    http://www.thedenverchannel.com/weather/report-climate-change-transforming-rocky-mountain-forests

    Reply
    • One more aspect must also be considered here. That is air pollution from burning fossil fuels. High ground level ozone findings recently made the news:

      Ozone in Colorado mountains surprises researchers

      DENVER – Researchers who examined air pollution along northern Colorado’s Front Range said they were surprised by how much harmful ozone and ozone-causing chemicals are drifting into the mountains from urban and rural areas below.

      “Really, all the way up to the Continental Divide you can find ozone,” said Gabriele Pfister, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder and one of the principal investigators on the project.

      “People (are) thinking you go into the mountains and you breathe the fresh air — that’s not always the case,” she said in an interview Wednesday…

      http://www.coloradoan.com/story/news/local/colorado/2014/08/28/ozone-colorado-mountains-surprises-researchers/14761789/

      Reply
  68. Colorado Bob

     /  September 12, 2014

    California temperatures hottest, driest in 120 years

    Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association Thursday confirmed California has had the hottest year since they started keeping records 120 years ago, in 1895.

    “For the first eight months of 2014, California has been record warm,” said Jake Crouch, a NOAA climate scientist.

    Crouch said the 62.6 degree average temperature this year beat the previous record, set in 1934, by a full degree.

    “That may not sound like much,” he said. “But when we usually talk about year over year temperatures, we are talking about fractions of a degree. And so the fact that we are more than one degree above the previous record is quite a large jump.”

    http://www.scpr.org/news/2014/09/11/46646/california-temperatures-hottest-driest-in-120-year/

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  September 12, 2014

      And then there’s next year… Will the drought continue and worsen? What do you think Bob?

      Reply
  69. Colorado Bob

     /  September 12, 2014

    Glacial Death Watch: Why an Ice Shelf Snapped in 2002 and What’s Coming Next

    Unfortunately for aspiring homicidal maniacs, the population of Scar Inlet is zero, so this 900-square-mile ice cube on the northernmost finger of the Antarctic Peninsula will have to serve as the site of another kind of vanishing.

    Scar Inlet used to sit next to what was once a 1,250-square-mile ice shelf — basically a sheet of ice above water, not land — that shattered unexpectedly and spectacularly in early 2002. The inlet is next.

    No one is likely to be hurt by the collapse of Scar Inlet, just as everyone survived so-called Larsen-B in 2002. But the disappearance of an ice shelf is basically like popping a cork. It clears the way for land-based glaciers to slide toward the ocean. That’s the genius of global warming. It’s so subtle that even though we’re responsible, nobody calls it a crime.

    Extensive study of the Larsen-B ice shelf’s demise has shown that surface warming — which we know is driven by smokestacks large and small — was most likely the guilty party, and a new study out today provides further evidence.

    Here’s the case so far.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-11/glacial-death-watch-why-an-ice-shelf-snapped-in-2002-and-what-s-coming-next.html

    Reply
  70. vardarac

     /  September 12, 2014

    Snow is falling in Wyoming. In September. Seems we don’t have much of a polar vortex anymore.

    Reply
    • vardac, here’s how your area looks like from ClimateReanalyzer:

      Reply
      • vardarac

         /  September 13, 2014

        It’s the earliest snowfall on record since 1888, yet that doesn’t seem to stop others from commenting that this weather event (in spite of the glaring abnormality) is proof that there isn’t global warming. I can only shake my head at how willing they are the stop there and make no further investigation or give any more thought as to why such a mass of cold air is pushed their way so early.

        Reply
  71. Colorado Bob

     /  September 12, 2014

    After the floods, India investigates climate change links –

    Chandra Bhushan, deputy director general of the Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) said the scale of the crisis exposed the lack of climate adaptation planning at state level.

    “The Kashmir floods are a grim reminder that climate change is now hitting India harder,” he said.

    “In the last 10 years, several extreme rainfall events have rocked the country, and this is the latest calamity in that series.”

    Since 2005 severe floods have hit Mumbai, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Leh and Uttarakhand, leading to thousands of deaths and millions of dollars of damage.
    – See more at: Link

    Reply
  72. Colorado Bob

     /  September 12, 2014

    Torrential rain is causing floods and landslides in northern Japan, nearly one million residents displaced

    Link

    Reply
  73. Colorado Bob

     /  September 13, 2014

    Reply
  74. Colorado Bob

     /  September 13, 2014

    We live in a world of Pretzel Logic whether we like or not .

    Reply
    • utoutback

       /  September 13, 2014

      Thanks C – Bob. Been a long time SD fan.
      Local folks met with Bill Barron the local district “unaffiliated” Congressional Candidate who has biked over 600 miles here in UT to spread his message of addressing climate change now.

      Reply
  75. Colorado Bob

     /  September 13, 2014

    My partner and I drove from Crested Butte back to Salida in Januariy 1972 , it was -60 at the Texaco in Gunnison , at the top of Monarch Pass it was 28 F degrees.

    Those days are gone forever , over a long time ago , oh yeah

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  September 13, 2014

      We live in a world of Pretzel Logic whether we like it or not .

      Reply
    • utoutback

       /  September 13, 2014

      Ah yes. Spent Halloween in a blizzard in Nederland, CO and Boulder in 1972, Eventually moved to Montrose and had a mountain cabin above Lizzard Head Pass.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  September 13, 2014

        Here . here.

        Those days are gone forever , over a long time ago , oh yeah

        Reply
      • Yes, in the 1950’s, I remember going up and over Berthoud Pass, with the snow banks about six feet taller than the car. Hardly ever caught sight of anything sideways except the snow bank. Just blue sky overhead until we got to Grand Lake.

        Reply
  76. Colorado Bob

     /  September 13, 2014

    Reply
  77. Colorado Bob

     /  September 13, 2014

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  September 13, 2014

      Can you cue up “Kashmir” by Led Zeppelin? That name is stuck in my head for some reason…

      Reply
  78. Colorado Bob

     /  September 13, 2014

    Don’t like Steely Dan ? It’s Friday night, so sue me.

    Reply
  79. Kevin Jones

     /  September 13, 2014

    Consider yourself sued, Colorado!🙂 I cut my baby teeth on The Doors The End. How’s that for hopium, Tom?

    Reply
  80. Landslides add to misery of Kashmir’s worst floods in decades
    http://www.trust.org/item/20140912084611-2u25m/?source=fiOtherNews2

    Reply
  81. Tom

     /  September 13, 2014

    CO Bob: I recall a log-truck driver from the Pacific northwest telling me about his first time driving into a remote camp at 4 a.m. and parking about 10′ from a cabin. He got out of his 72 degree cab and stepped outside where it was ~ 30 below zero. He said he started for the door and that’s the last thing he remembered until regaining consciousness a few minutes later when the guys in the cabin told him his lungs froze on his first breath and that they caught him in mid-drop and dragged him into the warmth to thaw.

    Kevin: The Doors bring back some memories, man. i’m sure most of the commenters here know in their hearts that the end is rapidly approaching, our “beliefs” and “hopes” notwithstanding. The guys who make up Steely Dan are a bit off to one side (hey, “artists -waddiya gonna say?”), but I’ve always really liked their music. As they say in the town where I grew up: “Eat yer own” (translation: “To each his own” – everyone is entitled to their own opinion).

    Reply
  82. Kevin Jones

     /  September 13, 2014

    If it sounds good,it is good. Duke Ellington

    Reply
  83. One small step, from the carbon challenge;
    https://www.facebook.com/groups/870520696293218/871299016215386
    I know that this is stuff that we are all doing in various ways, but I hope that this is a way to get some social media buzz happening around products, and lifestyles, that aide the environment.
    I feel that if we change the way that we purchase products then the commercial system would also shift. So this challenge is to build awareness around the environmental benefits of industrial hemp. Please join in.

    Reply
  84. Looks like another hurricane / storm off of Baja heading into SW deserts this week. Seems like piling on. Pheonix, Tuscon, Vegas may be getting more. Tom, I haven’t heard the term “freezing lungs” in decades. Thanks for mentioning that gem. 35 years ago we had to work with a scarf / covering over our mouths and not hyper ventilate / breathe too deeply/rapidly due to that.Painful crap that was for folks.

    Reply
  85. From Climate News Network:

    Illegal deforestation is growing problem for climate

    LONDON, 12 September, 2014 – A report by the US non-governmental organisation, Forest Trends, says 49% of all recent tropical deforestation is the result of illegal clearing for commercial agriculture.

    It says that most was driven by foreign demand for agricultural products, including palm oil, beef, soya and wood products – and the impact on forest-dependent people and on biodiversity is “devastating”.

    The report, funded by the UK Department for International Development, estimates that the illegal conversion of tropical forests for commercial agriculture produces 1.47 gigatonnes (1,470,000,000 tonnes) of carbon a year − equivalent to 25% of the European Union’s annual fossil fuel-based emissions. NASA said in 2012 that tropical deforestation had accounted for about 10% of human carbon emissions from 2000 to 2005.

    http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/2014/09/illegal-deforestation-is-growing-problem-for-climate/

    Reply
    • Apneaman

       /  September 14, 2014

      Illegal or legal? What’s the difference? The madness will continue until people physically stop those doing the plundering or all of us or most of us perish. Talk & Words that’s all I see as the hour grows later.

      Reply
      • They would not be doing it if we continue to purchase unsustainable products. That’s what I love about bamboo and hemp it is a natural sequestering. That what I hate about beef and dairy it is a natural emitter.

        Reply
  86. More from Climate News Network:
    Drought bites as Amazon’s ‘flying rivers’ dry up
    Scientists in Brazil believe the loss of billions of litres of water released as vapour clouds by Amazon rainforest trees is the result of continuing deforestation and climate change – leading to devastating drought.

    SÃO PAULO, 14 September, 2014 − The unprecedented drought now affecting São Paulo, South America’s giant metropolis, is believed to be caused by the absence of the “flying rivers” − the vapour clouds from the Amazon that normally bring rain to the centre and south of Brazil.
    …Meteorologist Jose Marengo, a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, first coined the phrase “flying rivers” to describe these massive volumes of vapour that rise from the rainforest, travel west, and then − blocked by the Andes − turn south.

    Satellite images from the Centre for Weather Forecasts and Climate Research of Brazil’s National Space Research Institute (INPE) clearly show that, during January and February this year, the flying rivers failed to arrive, unlike the previous five years.
    …In an interview with the journal Valor Economica, he said: “Destroying the Amazon to advance the agricultural frontier is like shooting yourself in the foot. The Amazon is a gigantic hydrological pump that brings the humidity of the Atlantic Ocean into the continent and guarantees the irrigation of the region.”
    …“A tonne of soy takes several tonnes of water to produce. When we export soy we are exporting fresh water to countries that don’t have this rain and can’t produce. It is the same with cotton, with ethanol. Water is the main agricultural input. If it weren’t, the Sahara would be green, because it has extremely fertile soil.”

    http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/2014/09/drought-bites-as-amazons-flying-rivers-dry-up/

    Reply
  87. Kevin Jones

     /  September 14, 2014

    dtlange: thanks. Reminded me of this: ” Ferdinand Columbus wrote a biography of his father Christopher. He mentioned the weather that his father the admiral had encountered near the island of Jamaica in 1494 : The sky, air , and climate were just the same as in other places; every afternoon there was a rain squall that lasted for about an hour. The admiral…attributes this to the great forests of that land; he knew from experience that formerly this also occurred in the Canary, Madeira, and Azore Islands, but since the removal of forests that once covered those islands they do not have so much mist and rain as before.”
    excerpted from THE NEXT ONE HUNDRED YEARS Shaping the Fate of our living Earth by Jonathan Weiner Bantam 1990. (a book as great as it has been under-read)

    p.s. I don’t find anything admirable about that admiral but that’s another story….interesting observation nonetheless.

    Reply
  88. Kevin Jones

     /  September 14, 2014

    Robert: All comments here are a tribute to you. Thanks.

    Reply
  89. Kevin Jones

     /  September 14, 2014

    Pope Francis says A piecemeal WWIII may have already begun. piecemeal: characterized by unsystematic measures taken over a period of time.

    Reply
  90. Colorado Bob

     /  September 14, 2014

    Naomi Klein: the hypocrisy behind the big business climate change battle

    What is wrong with us? I think the answer is far more simple than many have led us to believe: we have not done the things needed to cut emissions because those things fundamentally conflict with deregulated capitalism, the reigning ideology for the entire period we have struggled to find a way out of this crisis. We are stuck, because the actions that would give us the best chance of averting catastrophe – and benefit the vast majority – are threatening to an elite minority with a stranglehold over our economy, political process and media.

    That problem might not have been insurmountable had it presented itself at another point in our history. But it is our collective misfortune that governments and scientists began talking seriously about radical cuts to greenhouse gas emissions in 1988 – the exact year that marked the dawning of “globalisation”. The numbers are striking: in the 1990s, as the market integration project ramped up, global emissions were going up an average of 1% a year; by the 2000s, with “emerging markets” such as China fully integrated into the world economy, emissions growth had sped up disastrously, reaching 3.4% a year.

    That rapid growth rate has continued, interrupted only briefly, in 2009, by the world financial crisis. What the climate needs now is a contraction in humanity’s use of resources; what our economic model demands is unfettered expansion. Only one of these sets of rules can be changed, and it’s not the laws of nature.

    Link

    Reply
    • “We are stuck, because the actions that would give us the best chance of averting catastrophe – and benefit the vast majority – are threatening to an elite minority with a stranglehold over our economy, political process and media.”

      The stranglehold is only limiting if you don’t know Judo. We are the consumer, we make the economy. The elite minority are there because they have profited from our consumption choices. For example, if I choose to ride a bicycle to work, it is impossible for Exxon to benefit from that action, unless they buy a bike shop. If I choose to wear hemp clothing, it is impossible for that action not to sequester carbon. If I choose to vote Green then I undermine the elite’s political agenda.
      In a simplified world, if everyone had 10 unique facebook friends, it takes 10 replicated steps for a message to reach 10 billion people. The media cuts both ways, traditional media has been usurped by money, modern media is available to us all.

      Gandhi: Yes. In the end, you will walk out. Because 100,000 Englishmen simply cannot control 350 million Indians, if those Indians refuse to cooperate.

      How much more so if it was 7 billion? I feel that there is a way to make a significant change.

      Reply
    • Limitless, Illogical, and irrational consumerism is the driving force. Capitalism with it’s advertizing is the proven method that we are immersed in. Climate change begins, and ends, at home — in our individual brain pans.
      END

      Reply
  91. Colorado Bob

     /  September 14, 2014
    Reply
  92. Kevin Jones

     /  September 14, 2014

    Well Colorado, Naomi: I attended the Summit of the Americas in Quebec City with a sign that read: Global Warming is Obvious. Where is our Outrage! A B. McKibben quote highlighted in a NYT op-ed. This, the spring of 2001. Nobody knew what I was saying or what it had to do with their anti-globalization protest. Or told me, anyway. Colin Powell remarked the ample use of tear gas reminded him of Viet Nam……

    Reply
  93. Kevin Jones

     /  September 14, 2014

    Mother Nature bawling Her eyes out, Colorado Bob.

    Reply
  94. Colorado Bob

     /  September 15, 2014

    Tthe crazy jet stream is still wandering around like a drunken sailor.

    RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT FAIRBANKS AND DELTA JUNCTION…

    THE TEMPERATURE SOARED TO 76 DEGREES TODAY AT THE FAIRBANKS
    INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH
    TEMPERATURE OF 73 DEGREES FOR SEPTEMBER 14 SET IN 1938.

    Link

    Reply
  95. Mark from New England

     /  September 15, 2014

    Before this thread becomes a thing of the past – Kashmir by Led Zeppelin.

    Reply
  96. Colorado Bob

     /  September 15, 2014

    Projections for climate change in Vermont

    Here’s your northern Vermont forecast for the rest of this century: Annual precipitation will increase by between a third and half an inch per decade, while average temperatures will rise some five degrees Fahrenheit by midcentury. By late in the century, average temperatures will have spiked more than eight degrees. In July, by 2100, the City of Burlington will have at least ten additional days above ninety degrees. The growing season picks up 43 more days. Looking at ski conditions, expect annual snowfall at six major ski resorts to decline about fifty percent by century’s end.

    And these are just a few of the estimates by a team of University of Vermont and other scientists in a new research study, “Impacts of Projected Climate Change over the Lake Champlain Basin in Vermont,” published in the current issue of the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

    Read more at: Link

    Reply
  97. Colorado Bob

     /  September 15, 2014

    Category 3 Odile the Strongest Hurricane on Record to Hit Baja

    Regions of Mexico along the Gulf of California are expected to receive 8 – 16″, while a portion of Central Arizona is predicted to get 4 – 8″. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

    Link

    Reply
  98. Has anyone else noticed that a lot of the records being broken this year are from the 30’s?

    Reply
  99. Colorado Bob

     /  September 15, 2014

    Robert –

    Terrifying before and after images of the Kashmir floods

    http://qz.com/265410/terrifying-before-and-after-images-of-kashmir-floods/

    Reply
  100. Andy (at work)

     /  September 15, 2014

    Another storm forming behind the one that wacked Cabo per the NOAA site. That would make roughly 1 per week for a month.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  September 15, 2014

      This one has real power , 3-8 inches of rain . This will wipe out everything in it’s path

      Reply
      • Bill H.

         /  September 16, 2014

        Jeff Masters at the wunderground blog points out that if there’s one more major East Pacific hurricane 2014 would equal the all time record. Plenty of time for that.

        Not that this is likely to stop the ineffably smug Anthony Watts declaring the 2014 season to be “quiet”. What happens in Mexico, Japan, Korea, the Philippines or S. China is of little concern to him

        Reply
  101. Colorado Bob

     /  September 16, 2014

    Robert –
    We’re going to need a new post.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  September 16, 2014

      Or we go back in time

      New Orleans in SinKing’ , and I Don’t Want To Swim.

      Reply
  102. Colorado Bob

     /  September 16, 2014

    New Orleans is sinkin’ , and I don’t want to swim.

    Reply
  103. Then the Winds Changed – California

    Six years ago I stopped sailing 21 ft. sloops out of Santa Barbara harbor.
    Before then, and about twice a week, I would rent a 21 ft. Victory from the local Sailing Center. I believe that Annapolis used Victories to teach Naval cadets how to rig and sail.
    Santa Barbara harbor faces south but the wind is in the west. So I would tack close hauled until I had cleared Santa Barbara Point. That is where the ocean air was.
    Fresh sea air it was. You could smell and feel it. With good balance and sail trim I would stand amid with one hand on the boom, and work the tiller with a forefinger on my other hand. Close hauled and into the swells. Spray splashing over the bow. Free at last. Just fresh sea air, moving fast as it should, with blue water under a clear blue sky.
    Then sometime in 2008, the usual late-morning winds out of the west, or west/northwest, and down Santa Barbara Channel — stopped making their regular appearance. Just lazy dirty air out of the southwest from greater Los Angeles. A hazy smog bank, and no blue sky.
    At the same time, Santa Barbara’s air got visibly denser with pollution. I stopped sailing, and I stopped riding my bicycle because my wheels kicked up gritty traffic dust into my face and eyes. And I started documenting traffic dust, and air pollution fall out that now covered the landscape.
    And now to my point — I knew the climate was changing and global warming was happening. My guess is that I lost my sailing air due the jet stream having problems (diminishing Arctic Ice, etc.) and the warming oceans putting so much moisture in the air. Something like that anyway.
    Now I am land-locked in Portland, wishing I had fresh sea air washing through me, and reading Robert’s blog to keep in touch with a meaningful reality.
    – DT

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  September 16, 2014

      Thanks for sharing that story of change DT.

      Reply
    • Griffin

       /  September 16, 2014

      We all read a lot about data and studies to gain an understanding of the changes in our world, but to me, a story like this is worth more than a hundred sets of temperature readings.
      Thank you for sharing this DT.

      Reply
  104. Henri

     /  September 16, 2014

    Antarctic sea extent at record high. This is as expected by a number of climatologists but somehow denialists are confident it is a big win for them.

    Reply
  105. Hurricane Odile damages Mexico’s Baja California resorts

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-29217591

    Reply
  106. Right on queue. Tropical Storm Polo has now formed below Baja and is following the rough track of the last 3 hurricanes. Bill H mentioned above that this would tie the max number of observed hurricanes for the East Pacific.

    Anyone have thoughts on whether the heat transfer from the west pacific this year is a contributor?

    Reply

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