Late October Sees Strong Polar Amplification, Mangled Jet Stream Impacting Much of Antarctica

Globally speaking, it’s a rather hot day.

According to GFS model runs and observational data, the past 24 hour period has shown temperatures in the range of +0.72 C above the already hotter than normal 1979 to 2000 average. A hot day in a hot month that is likely to be among the hottest on record, if not an all-time record-breaker itself.

A couple of days ago, hourly CO2 levels rocketed from 396 ppm to 399.5 ppm. A rather odd and somewhat ominous jump back toward the 400 ppm level at a time of year when atmospheric CO2 should be just starting a slow rebound from lowest ebb. A bottom that this year hit about 395 ppm during mid September. A measure already more than 2.2 ppm above last year’s low. To say the least, an hourly upward swing of 3.5 ppm isn’t exactly normal, especially when one considers the fact that the world hasn’t seen near 400 ppm CO2 levels for about three million years (this year peaked near 403 ppm during late spring).

And all that extra CO2, when combined with other greenhouse gasses, is having an increasingly obvious impact on climate. We see it in the record global average temperatures. We see it in the rising oceans which have come more and more to threaten the cities, lands and isles upon which so many of us reside. We see it in increasing instances of extreme weather around the globe — in the extraordinary and often persistent droughts, floods, storms and wildfires. And we see it in the form of a rather strong temperature amplification at both poles.

Antarctic Amplification

(Global temperature anomaly maps provided by GFS and the University of Maine shows no regions of the world cooler than average with the highest abnormal warm temperature departures concentrated, as usual, at the poles.)

Greenhouse Gasses as Primary Driver of Polar Amplification

Today, the Arctic is 1.60 C above the already hotter than normal 1979 to 2000 average. Meanwhile, the Antarctic boasts the highest departures for any global region at +2.09 C. Taking a closer look at the Antarctic Continent, we find an angry red splotch featuring temperature anomalies in the range of +12 to +20 C above average. A region associated with a tropics-to-pole transfer of airs we’ll discuss more in depth later.

What causes such a powerful and visible polar amplification? In short, it can best be described as the general impact of added greenhouse gasses on the global climate system.

Because most of the sun’s radiation falls on the equatorial regions, temperatures there are governed to a greater degree by direct solar insolation. But move toward the poles where sunlight hits the earth at a much lower angle, if at all, then the impact of the greenhouse effect holds greater sway. There, the ability of a gas like CO2 to trap and re-radiate long wave solar heat radiation can have a rather extraordinary impact.

On an Earth with no atmosphere, the temperature differential between poles and equator, between night and day, would be even more extreme than the variance we see today. But as the atmosphere thickens and the greenhouse gas overburden intensifies, the temperature difference grows less. For Earth’s present climate the temperature difference between the Equator and the Arctic averages about 42 degrees C. For the Antarctic, the average is about 71 degrees C.

On a world like Venus, where a kind of super greenhouse is in force and much of the atmosphere is composed of CO2, there is practically no difference in temperature between the equator and the poles. The reason for this is that greenhouse gasses trap the sun’s long wave radiation and recirculate it around a planetary system. And on Venus, a ray of long wave sunlight that comes in has very little chance to get out. So its heat recirculates many times within Venus’s atmosphere before it finally escapes.

On a place like Earth, where greenhouse gas levels are increasing, we would expect the temperature difference between the equator and the poles to drop as the poles warm faster due to the added impact of the increased greenhouse gasses. And since about the mid 20th Century, this is exactly what we’ve seen.

North Pole to Equator Temperature Difference

South Pole to Equator temperature difference

(Top frame shows North Pole to Equator temperature difference since 1948. Bottom frame shows South Pole to Equator temperature difference from 1948 to 2011. Note the approximate 3 C temperature swing indicating a faster warming at the poles in both graphs. Data is from the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis model.)

Lowering differences in Equator to polar temperature on a warming world also denotes a much faster warming of the polar zones. Hence the term polar amplification.

Now, for the Arctic, polar amplification has also become synonymous with loss of sea ice, loss of snow cover, increased land darkening due to changes in vegetation, and local release of greenhouse gasses via feedbacks from the Arctic environment. Each of these changes has the potential to add increased warming on top of the warming already being driven by global greenhouse gas increase even as such changes likely also drive changes to local and Northern Hemisphere weather. But as important as these additional changes may be, the larger driver remains an increase in global greenhouse gases driven by human emissions.

How Polar Amplification Drives Changes to the Jet Stream

In the end, such a polar amplification is a strong driver for changes to the world’s weather. Primarily, by reducing the difference in temperature between the poles and the Equator, we tend to see weaknesses forming in the circumpolar wind field known as the Jet Stream. At times, the Jet will slow and meander, allowing for the formation of ridges that extend far into polar zones and for troughs that dip deep into the middle and lower latitudes. Rather than a west-to-east flow of wind and weather, such a shift generates more of an Equator-to-pole flow:

image

(Triple tendrils — meridional flows converge on Antarctica. Note the massive highs sitting in the ridge systems driving the poleward wind flows. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

And today we see two large north to south flows issuing from the 20 degree south latitude region, traversing thousands of miles of ocean in a poleward flood and terminating at the great ice sheets of Antarctica in the region of 70 to 75 south latitude.

Note that the flow originating off the west coast of South America terminates at the vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet — a region that has been warming at an extraordinary pace of 0.25 to 0.5 C each decade. The second flow, originating from the South Atlantic and terminating over East Antarctica is heavily involved in the +12-20 degree C temperature anomalies ongoing there today.

Looking at these massive flows of air and the related spikes in temperature anomalies, it is easy to become confused over the issue of cause and effect. But it is simple to recall if you understand that first, added greenhouse gasses warmed the pole which in turn weakened the Jet Stream, which in turn allowed an amplification of the north-south meridional flow transporting yet more heat into this southern polar region.

For the southern polar region, today, we see some extraordinary high temperature departures for mid-to-late spring. At this time, polar amplification should be fading as more sunlight streams in. And yet we have a still strong positive temperature anomaly.

And as for the northern polar zone with its numerous additional polar amplification vectors, we shall see to what degree, if any, a potentially emerging El Nino tamps down the extraordinary meridional flows and polar vortex disruptions seen during just this past year’s freakish winter of 2013-2014.

Links:

University of Maine

NCAR-NCEP reanalysis model

Earth Nullschool

The Keeling Curve

Polar Amplification

Rapid Arctic Warming and Wacky Weather — Are They Linked?

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431 Comments

  1. wili

     /  October 30, 2014

    Thanks for that great explanation of polar amplification. Maybe you should share it with Trenberth? ‘-)

    “2014 Antarctic ozone hole holds steady”
    http://phys.org/news/2014-10-antarctic-ozone-hole-steady.html

    Reply
    • Thanks, Wili. Appears ozone hole is still on the path toward shrinking, although they are trying to figure out how much of the shrinkage is due to stratospheric warming in the area.

      Thought we’d be due for a bit of clarity on polar amplification drivers…

      Reply
  2. Something I’ve been watching for about 2 weeks now is an SSTA anomaly at the face of the Antarctic ice shelf beneath Australia. For the first week I assumed it was a sensor, calibration or calculation aberration, a few pixels worth of smudge. However in the past 3 days it has opened up significantly. Today it is really quite apparent.

    If you look at the SSTA on climate reanalyzer at that area you’ll see what I’m typing about. It has been there steadily getting larger.

    Also, what appears to be some open spots right on the edge of the land behind the ice shelf, there are similar anomalies.

    If you look on nullshcool, and zoom down to that area, you can see these things quite clearly.

    No idea what is causing that. The only guess I can make is the salt water substrate (warmer water as well) is getting surfaced there due to the ice shelf.

    Reply
  3. Colorado Bob

     /  October 31, 2014

    New research reveals what’s causing sea level to rise

    Sea level rise is half due to melting ice and half due to ocean warming, including 13% from the deepest oceans, a new paper has found.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/oct/30/new-research-quantifies-sea-level-rise

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  October 31, 2014

      Most recently, a study by scientists Sarah Purkey, Gregory Johnson, and Don Chambers was published. This team was responsible for a 2010 paper that was groundbreaking in that it quantified very deep (abyssal) sea warming. This latest paper is, in some respects, a continuation of that work.

      The researchers recognised that changes to sea levels are mainly caused by thermal expansion of ocean waters as they heat, changes to the saltiness of water, and an increase in ocean waters as ice melts and flows into the sea. The total annual sea level rise is about 3mm per year – the question is, how much of that is from expansion and how much is from melting?

      Reply
    • Interesting. So the new paper finds warming in the deep ocean… Might have to do a write-up on this one.

      Reply
  4. Colorado Bob

     /  October 31, 2014

    From
    rockyrex comment on the Guardian thread . A rather good link to a good article.

    Atmospheric CO2 is currently just below 400 parts per million (ppm) on average.

    It last reached similar levels during the Pliocene (5.3-2.6 million years ago).

    At that time, temperatures rose to levels 2-3°C warmer than today, and sea level rose by up to 20m in places.

    Sea level takes a few hundred years to reach equilibrium in response to changes in atmospheric CO2 and temperature, which may explain why sea level has not yet risen to the same levels seen in the Pliocene.

    From page 3 of ……

    http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/climaterecord

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  October 31, 2014

      One more from the comments on the Guardian thread , They seem to think the author’s picture was taken in Seattle , my reply :

      That ain’t Seattle in the background . Looks more like Greenland . Which was a Viking real estate scam , like calling a Vegas development “Paradise Valley” .

      One does not sail back to Norway , and claim to have discovered the largest bock of ice in the know world , and get settlers to buy in. One sails back to Norway, and says, “I found Greenland” !

      Lief Erickson is patron saint of real estate developers.

      Reply
    • james cole

       /  November 2, 2014

      ” Atmospheric CO2 is currently just below 400 parts per million (ppm) on average.

      It last reached similar levels during the Pliocene (5.3-2.6 million years ago).”
      Was Methane a player in those past climates? Or is today unique in that we have both CO2 PLUS a rising methane level. I am meaning, could things be worse now, that then, because were are raising methane along with CO2. CO2e I guess it is called.

      Reply
  5. bassman

     /  October 31, 2014

    Great post Robert. I keep wondering how atmospheric C02 might respond to a shift in ocean temps (to a warmer state). Are we really so certain about how C02 sink/source relationships will change in response. I wonder how significant S American drought will be for C02 absorption. ( reduced carbon fixation through photosynthesis).

    All of these things make me think we are on the cusp of some major shifts in the climate over the next 3 years. The changes in the jet stream seem to carry the most immediate threat/manifestation of AGW in the near future.

    Reply
    • Me thinks roughly the same as Bassman. Three years makes for a reasonable, and movable lens of time for these rapid changes. Plus some unknown to possibly engage.

      Another fine post Robert.

      Reply
    • Good thoughts. My opinion is that we probably have a rather fuzzy picture of what is likely to happen going forward, even if the general gist is apparent. Given the magnitude of the human forcing, I think we may well be in for some rather unpleasant surprises. How the carbon stores respond are pretty critical to the overall nature of the crisis. So we should probably keep a keen look out for variations in the current pattern.

      Reply
    • wili

       /  October 31, 2014

      Here’s another consequence of the SoAm drought for CO2 levels:
      ” Brazil’s Dangerous Climate Spiral–
      Drought is pushing the Latin giant toward more coal, and that means more carbon emissions.”
      http://www.nationaljournal.com/energy/brazil-s-dangerous-climate-spiral-20141031

      Reply
  6. Griffin

     /  October 31, 2014

    Robert, the huge trough building over the central conus right now is forecast to bring 500MB heights that are 5.5 standard deviations from normal. Graphic example of a wavy jet stream and poleward flow!

    Reply
  7. Colorado Bob

     /  October 31, 2014

    My reply to a troll on Dr. Rood’s current thread –

    I been watching this story since the rains failed starting last March, the end of their wet season ( I watch lot’s of things, and over a very long time frame ) . There are 44 million people that are nearing no drinking water with in weeks. They are high jacking water tanker trucks west of the largest city in South America.

    I am sure that just a few years ago none of those people were aware that in just a few short years. They would have no fresh water in their taps.

    I submit to you that 44 million people in South America are now aware of climate change. Because they can’t wash dishes.

    There’s climate change lesson here and no one with power see’s it coming . The American Media has never said a word. The people that run Brazil , cannot get their heads around that fact that chain sawing the Amazon isn’t going to work out for them.

    Trust me 44 million people in Brazil , are about to run an experiment in the modern world , “What happens when you run out of water?”

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  October 31, 2014

      This not some distant forecast , it needs to rain soon , otherwise we get some SIFI movie , where 44 million people go looking for a drink.

      You cannot live past 3 days without water. At the 3rd day you will drink anything. And it will kill you.

      Reply
    • Very good. “… chain sawing the Amazon… experiment…”
      It’s a terrible catastrophe by — modern (?) man.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  October 31, 2014

        The New President of Brazil thinks chain sawing the woods is the way forward.

        Reply
    • São Paulo is exploring a species of crisis that will be all too common for far too many modern cities in the coming years. They may back away from the brink this month, if the rains come. If not, we will witness a climate change driven catastrophe without parallel. The first of many yet to come. This is the real danger facing the modern world. The Ebola crisis is a sideshow. And, as ever, mainstream media is AWOL.

      Reply
      • Mark from New England

         /  October 31, 2014

        Bob and Robert,

        Thanks for the continuing coverage of the drought in southern Brazil. For those of us not keeping close tabs on the forecast down there, please let us know when significant rains do come. I’ve been passing this news on to a friend whose wife is from that part of Brazil.

        This is the type of catastrophe I would have previously imagined wouldn’t happen until 2030 or beyond. If this is happening now, what’s it going to be like at 3 C or 4 C of average global temperature rise?

        Reply
      • Apneaman

         /  October 31, 2014

        The Ebola crisis is getting lots of press, but that is because it fits nicely into “the formula”. The media only cares about ratings and the time honored themes and stories that get them. The fact is that Ebola and many other diseases, soon to come visit us, are a direct result of the Chain Saw and the mentality that invented it.

        http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2612900/oil_palm_explosion_driving_west_africas_ebola_outbreak.html

        Reply
  8. Colorado Bob

     /  October 31, 2014

    Neal Young was on with Charlie Rose tonight

    Buffalo Springfield – For What It’s Worth 1967

    Reply
    • james cole

       /  November 2, 2014

      Funny how really in tune with reality those groups on the 60’s were. I put it down to good public education of the times. Kids grew up educated and cultured. Need I point to some of the last few decades and what popular music consists of. I see an intellectual decline among the vast middle majority, the top 1% always get a fine education and cultural experience. Public and even some university level education is not measuring up to the past. I can say my High School Education in the late 60’s – early 70’s left me well equipped to step into the military’s highest technical fields.

      Reply
  9. Colorado Bob

     /  October 31, 2014

    The best song Neil Young ever wrote –

    Mr. Soul

    I stood about 4 feet from Neil Young that summer in 1967 in Lubbock, Texas. When they were on the road trying to “make it”. He was wearing a a blue 1917 British wool l jacket , He had deer skin leather gloves stuffed in the epaulets on his shoulder. . He was playing a big red Gibson. He was coolest guy I had ever seen.

    Reply
    • You bet, CB.

      Reply
    • Apneaman

       /  November 3, 2014

      Neil Young is one of our best exports ever, Bob. Did you know he used to hang out with Burton Cummings and Randy Bachman before they all got famous? Add up all their music and that’s quite the cannon for a bunch of Canadian prairie boys.

      Reply
  10. Colorado Bob

     /  October 31, 2014

    We cannot mine this grim future without some sort of hope. That’s why 47 year old songs help.

    Reply
  11. Colorado Bob

     /  October 31, 2014

    Speaking of chain sawing the woods,

    We want to kill the biggest Elk. Catch the biggest shark. Chop down the tallest tree. And for all that we get an hour of pleasure. Then we move on to :

    “We want to kill the biggest Elk. Catch the biggest shark. Chop down the tallest tree. And for all that we get an hour of pleasure.”

    Reply
  12. Colorado Bob

     /  October 31, 2014

    Get ready little lady, Hell is coming to breakfast

    Lone Wati the Outlaw Josey Wells

    Reply
  13. Colorado Bob

     /  October 31, 2014

    Paradise by John Prine

    Reply
  14. Colorado Bob

     /  October 31, 2014

    Steve Earl and the Del McCoury Band-Texas Eagle

    Reply
  15. It’s very warm here in the SW England.
    Folks are walking around commenting on how beautifully warm it is.
    “Yes. Worryingly warm!” I reply.

    They look at me quizzically, with nary an iota of concern or even awareness of what this actually portends.

    As Guy says, it’s over folks :-((

    Reply
    • bassman

       /  October 31, 2014

      Beckjeremy, we are still well buffered in the west from AGW. How long will that last? I say 15-40 years.

      Reply
      • Tom

         /  October 31, 2014

        don’t bet on it bassman

        Reply
      • bassman

         /  October 31, 2014

        I guess we would have to define severity. Maybe when percent of income going to food doubling would be a metric for &&$$t hitting the fan for Americans. We can adapt to many things but we have to eat. I worry most about the destabilizing effects of food insecurity on democracies.

        Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  October 31, 2014

      Beckjeremy,

      What part of southwest England if I may ask? Cornwall? Devon? I was in SW England in 98′ and I thought it was beautiful country. I loved Cornwall down near Land’s End. Hope this winter’s storms aren’t too bad for you.

      Reply
      • eastlondonlines – October 30, 2014

        Hackney is facing a serious air pollution problem, which has caused 66 deaths in the borough alone this year. Air pollution on most of London’s roads is twice the EU legal limit, an issue that is having a toxic affect on the population.

        The ‘Campaign for Clean Air in London’ has been leading pressure for air pollution change across the capital, and released an interactive map with Kings College, showing the amount of nitrogen dioxide in the air. Hackney’s Mare Street displays results from 2010 that show higher pollution levels than the Governments own goals for that year.

        http://www.eastlondonlines.co.uk/2014/10/calls-to-tackle-hackney-air-pollution-after-66-deaths/

        Reply
    • I know just how you feel, Beckjeremy.
      It’s incredible the way: ‘ Folks are walking around commenting on how beautifully warm it is.’
      “Yes. Worryingly warm!”

      Reply
  16. Ouse M.D.

     /  October 31, 2014

    I have to assume that governments have long abandoned global climate change- at least in the transatlantic World; no news making through in mainstream media. Only soccer players breaking their little toes.
    There was still some concerned talking in the ’90s and early 2000s, but since all that talk has been dropped.
    I guess hoping on technological advance is the only official governmental policy, nowadays.
    And of course ignoring these massive climate events.
    That + 20 C anomaly has been hovering over Antarctica since August.
    This October is the hottest I have experienced in my 33 years. I miss all that winter and snow, freezing cold enough to freeze great lakes.
    On the other hand masses are cheering this neverending summer.
    Some have this idea of global warming, that we’ll be simply basking in balmy weather the rest of our lives.
    Education has been levelled down to celebrity asses recognition- contest.

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  October 31, 2014

      “Education has been levelled down to a celebrity asses recognition contest.”

      – greatest line in this comment section so far🙂 I think it’d make a great bumper sticker too.

      Reply
  17. Ryan O'Connor

     /  October 31, 2014

    Thanks for another great post, Robert! And thanks to you and ColoradoBob (and others) for all the great links concerning global events, especially what’s happening in Sao Paolo. The state of American mainstream media is disgusting. They’ll report on extreme weather in North America (which is pretty much every day) without ever hinting at why it’s happening, or that we were warned that all of this would happen back in the 80s, and told how to prevent it. We seem to be accelerating in our race to the bottom, where scientific realities and facts are abandoned in favor of magical thinking and superstition. Today the news is obsessing about Ebola, and how a nurse who selflessly travelled to Africa to help humanity is “selfish” for bike riding in the woods after testing NEGATIVE for Ebola. The remaining news consisted of what appeared to be a contest for idiots to see who knew the least. All were very worthy competitors. Gayle King provided a concentrated dose of stupid ( as always) with this gem of a comment when learning that Glacier National Park was losing its glaciers from AGW,”I didn’t know pollution could reach all the way out there”! The amount of ignorance she betrays with a single sentence is astounding. Ugh, I really find myself losing all hope sometimes.

    Reply
  18. Sao Paolo reservoir dropped 0.2% in the past 24 hrs down to 12.4%. 0mm precipitation.
    October saw 42.5mm precipitation compared to 130.8mm normal (~32% of normal).

    Less 10.7% dead pool = 1.7% left before the sludge gets pumped out.

    Either the loss is increasing (evaporation / leaky pipes ), hoarding is starting or it is now at such a state that the sensors are getting wider variability. Either way, over the weekend we’ll see if the increased depletion was a one off, or is now what the system is facing.

    If the depletion is accelerating, then they will reach dead pool before Nov. 24th. At 0.2%/day they’ll hit it Nov. 8th. So without significant precipitation the dead pool date will be somewhere between Nov. 8th and Nov 24th (~Nov. 16 median).

    Reply
    • Gerald Spezio

       /  October 31, 2014

      If this horror goes down & your quantifying post are making it look as though it could be very soon, we will witness what horror could come to millions in CA – & soon.

      Reply
  19. Thank you Robert for an excellent post which has taught me something today.
    Here at 50 degrees North the butterflies and bees are out enjoying 21 C on a sunny Halloween.

    Reply
  20. ‘California drought: ‘Exceptional’ dryness unchanged’
    Robert Hopwood, The Desert Sun 2:02 p.m. PDT October 30, 2014

    This week’s Drought Monitor shows no changes in the severity of California’s drought, despite recent precipitation across Northern California.

    More than 95,600 square miles of California — an area larger than the state of Minnesota — remain in “exceptional” drought. That’s the worst drought classification used by the Drought Monitor, which is updated every week and released on Thursday.

    Reply
  21. Brazil’s giant dam programme is a climate disaster: Large hydroelectric power projects may be contributing to global warming – rather than helping to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – due to grossly underestimated methane emissions from dam-created reservoirs flooding forests, according recent research.

    Reply
  22. rayduray

     /  November 1, 2014

    Sao Paolo dodges a bullet? Looks like the paulistanos are going to be reaching for their umbrellas for a while: http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Sao+Paulo+Brazil+BRXX0232

    My prediction? Sao Paulo makes a Great Leap Forward in over-population nine months from now.

    Reply
  23. Southern California is getting some rain.
    10-31-14 21:00 hrs
    NWS
    RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THREE
    QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL
    COAST…WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHWEST SAN LUIS OBISPO
    COUNTY. OTHERWISE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO THREE
    QUARTERS OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS…WITH LOCAL
    AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS.

    Santa Barbara is getting steady rain.
    Andy in San Diego, how’s it looking down in SD?

    Reply
  24. Re Brazil rain “reprieve”: considering how much of the present day landscape must be dry and dusty — the drainages must be hindered as good run-off channels for human consumption, etc. There must be quite a bit of loess instead of vegetation — which is out of the historical realm. The loss of forest canopy must have allowed a lot hot air to dry out the soils.
    Loess — Geology noun: loess : a loosely compacted yellowish-gray deposit of windblown sediment of which extensive deposits occur, e.g., in eastern China and the American Midwest
    – a clastic, predominantly silt-sized sediment, which is formed by the accumulation of wind-blown dust.
    Of course, any rain is good — even dusty muddy water is better than none at all. I wish them well.

    Reply
  25. OFF TOPIC:
    Colorado Bob, FYI here’s a recent Neil Young: The Howard Stern Show – Neil Young Interview (2014-10-14) on Youtube 87 min. All audio — it’s good, lots of past & present info & insights. I didn’t post link the link to save space here.
    NY is a very busy person on many topics these days.
    BTW I have tried to get him interested in some things including RS. All this via his Twitter persona ID.
    Ps I used to encounter David Crosby sailing his ‘Maya’ in and out of Santa Barbara harbor.

    “RED RIGHT RETURNING” – The 3 R’s of harbor navigation.

    Reply
  26. I don’t recollect any mention of this recent update on NIST:
    R&D Magazine 10/30/2014

    ‘NIST “combs” atmosphere to measure greenhouse gases’

    By remotely “combing” the atmosphere with a custom laser-based instrument, researchers from NIST, in collaboration with researchers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), have developed a new technique that can accurately measure—over a sizeable distance—amounts of several of the major “greenhouse” gases implicated in climate change.

    The technique potentially could be used in several ways to support research on atmospheric greenhouse gases. It can provide accurate data to support ongoing and future satellite monitoring of the composition of the atmosphere. With development, more portable systems based on the technology could provide very accurate, continuous regional monitoring of these gases over kilometer scales—a capability lacking with current monitoring techniques.

    In the recent demonstration, NIST’s pair of laser frequency combs measured the simultaneous signatures of several greenhouse gases—including carbon dioxide, methane and water vapor—along a 2-km path between a NIST laboratory roof in Boulder, Colo., and a nearby mesa.

    http://www.rdmag.com/news/2014/10/nist-%E2%80%9Ccombs%E2%80%9D-atmosphere-measure-greenhouse-gases

    Reply
  27. A bit of NIST ‘comb’ history — very interesting for the science minded.

    ‘Portable Frequency Comb Rolls Out of the Lab’ – March 20, 2014

    A PML team is hitting the road with a fine-tooth comb. Scientists in the Quantum Electronics and Photonics Division have devised a portable optical frequency comb that is capable of laboratory-grade measurements but can be operated outside of the laboratory at remotes sites, and even on moving platforms.

    That capability not only provides for sensitive optical-frequency time transfer in non-laboratory settings, but may also make possible new levels of precision in detecting greenhouse gas concentrations, monitoring industrial processes for contaminants, and – eventually – measuring changes in local gravitational field that alter a clock’s tick rate. “The main impetus behind the project is time transfer,”

    * This effect, called gravitational time dilation, was predicted by Albert Einstein in 1907 and has since been confirmed by numerous experiments. In general, the closer a clock gets to a large mass, the slower it will run. Mineral, petroleum, or other subterranean deposits cause variations in the local gravitational field, and a sufficiently sensitive clock could detect those changes.

    http://www.nist.gov/pml/div686/sources_detectors/portable_frequency_comb.cfm

    Reply
  28. Colorado Bob

     /  November 1, 2014

    An Ill Wind Blows in Antarctica, Threatens Global Flooding
    Fiercer winds from the Southern Ocean means a faster meltdown of ice

    The scientists were blown away by the vicious climate change feedback that they unearthed.

    The researchers reported that the shifting winds “produce an intense warming” just below the surface of the ocean. The wind changes were found to be heaving warm currents from deeper waters up into a zone where the Antarctic ice sheet is vulnerable to melt and crumble from beneath — the area where towers of ice sit atop submerged ground.

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/an-ill-wind-blows-in-antarctica-threatens-global-flooding/

    Reply
  29. Colorado Bob

     /  November 1, 2014

    Amazon rainforest losing ability to regulate climate, scientist warns

    Report says logging and burning of Amazon might be connected to worsening droughts – such as the one plaguing São Paulo
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/31/amazon-rainforest-deforestation-weather-droughts-report

    Reply
  30. mikkel

     /  November 1, 2014

    Floating LNG (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/02/magazine/the-biggest-ship-in-the-world-though-it-isnt-exactly-a-ship-.html?_r=0)

    If this works it will open up immense NG sea deposits. Surely this is the type of platform that will handle clathrate extraction; perhaps instead of trying to figure out how to keep clathrates stable and bring them up to the surface, they’ll just purposefully disassociate in order to suck it into the ship and liquefy?

    Your post on how we can’t rely on peak fossil fuels grows more pressing each month.

    Reply
    • Gerald Spezio

       /  November 1, 2014

      mikkel, if it doesn’t work, we can try creating our own reality, as in the new age blockbuster film, “What the Bleep …”
      Another question. Once the techie geniuses capture the methane, what do they plan to do with it?

      Reply
      • Apneaman

         /  November 1, 2014

        Governments and industry have been working on clathrate capture for decades. You will know about it if they ever manage it. We don’t actually need it for our great suicide project, the feed-backs we have already triggered might already be enough and the fact that emissions will never voluntarily go down assures it. Does anyone seriously think that China and India are ever going to reduce carbon burning? They won’t even show up for the fake summits. It’s like James Kunstler says “anything goes and nothing matters”. Greed has won. Nothing we do or say matters in the aggregate, but if it makes you feel better that’s all that matters now.

        Reply
      • rayduray

         /  November 2, 2014

        “Once the techie geniuses capture the methane, what do they plan to do with it?”

        Sell it. There’s a good market for the stuff. Current price for 1 MMBTU nat gas in the U.S. is $3.70 or so. LNG delivered to Japan is currently fetching about $15.00 for the same BTU content.

        Reply
  31. Sao Paolo reservoir down 0.2% in 24 hrs (same as yesterday).

    10.7% dead pool. 1.7% above dead pool. 2.9 mm precipitation.

    Reply
  32. We received a dash of rain last night (a reasonable drizzle is all). We’ll see if anything materializes today.

    Reply
  33. Climate change a “threat multiplier” for farming-dependent states-analysis

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/29/food-climatechange-security-idUSL5N0SN2IV20141029

    Reply
    • A “multiplier”, you bet it is.
      Note too that the article itself was by the ‘Thomson Reuters Foundation’ — and not the same as ‘Thomson Reuters’ the news agency.
      I note this because this is the second and recent hard hitting climate piece by the foundation vs the fact that about a year ago Thomson Reuters severely cut back their climate desk. Don’t remember what it was but I’m pretty sure I linked to it a few weeks ago.
      Thanks for the link, Andy

      Reply
  34. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 1, 2014

    Guy McPherson recently flew to New Zealand in a sophisticated jet aircraft at 500 mph & 35,000 ft – to lecture his flock about near term extinction & administer grief counseling, as in aging new ager Carolyn Baker’s spiritual foo-foo.
    NZ is 13000 miles round trip from Los Angeles.
    Guy’s CO2 production for just himself is 13 TONS.
    Guy says that we MUST completely dismantle industrial civilization in all its tentacles in order to have any hope of survival.
    I am not sure if Guy still advocates living in a mud hut in New Mexico.
    Say one thing & do another.

    Reply
    • wili

       /  November 1, 2014

      GS, I don’t fly. I haven’t flown for ten years. I don’t plan on flying ever for the rest of my life. This decision has incurred large personal and professional costs. (I also do–and don’t do–a number of other things that keeps my foot print down to about ‘one earth,’ a figure I plan to lower further in coming months and years.)
      I was disappointed when Gore’s film came out and so much of it was pictures of him flying around.

      But really, if there is one thing still worth flying around the world for, it is to spread the word that GW is a global crisis. To shout it from the roof, and to tell it in any forum that you can find.

      In my experience, it is only (some) people who essentially have no very deep moral code who manage to never break their moral code or act in ways that seem to contradict it. Yet they are often the first to call out those who have loudly proclaimed some fundamental, important truth that the spokesman is not always (apparently) living by what he is saying.

      Reply
      • Gerald Spezio

         /  November 2, 2014

        My heated dispute with Guy concerns his theological belief in the infallibility of Jevons & K-B as justification for his gigantic CO2 production from flying.
        He claims that if he cuts back why some other ….

        It takes some circuitous reasoning to justify one human’s production of 13 tons of CO2 to lecture a few days to a few people about global heating, near term extinction, & “grief counseling.”
        Otherwise, I think Guy is on point & ahead of the curve about both climate change & near term extinction.
        I think is is right about all of us being in hospice.

        He taught me plenty.
        His flying demonstrates the principle of infrastructural determinism in glaring action.
        A British term for flying is PLANE STUPID.

        Reply
      • I’m with you Wili. I made up my mind years ago to never fly in an airplane. I curse every bastard one of them in the sky — that, after watching the sky get dirtier and dirtier, day after day, and year after year.
        I used to have a website called SaveTheSky.net — which I can no longer afford. SaveTheSky was devoted to bringing attention, and stopping low level and high altitude air pollution — including aviation. (The site had similar themes and values to RS — with more agitprop and photos.)
        I’ve also done some wild flying myself (as passenger). As a photographer, I worked a press pass at a large 3 day international airshow where I learned about aircraft and the people who fly them. Also how to observe and photograph at high speed aircraft flying left to right, diving or climbing, or straight on — planes going anywhere from 40 mph to 600 mph — and at varying closing speeds. Later, as a butterfly naturalist, I used those same high speed viewing skills to ID these marvels in flight.

        So, back to aviation. Remember how clear our skies were after air traffic was stopped after a bunch of Saudis, with box cutters, took over those airliners carrying thousands of pounds of unburned aviation fuel — and flew them into buildings?
        ###

        9/11 clears skies for climate studies
        For several days following Sept. 11, 2001, planes were grounded throughout the United States. Satellite images during that time period show crystal clear skies across the contiguous United States. The clarity, researchers say, stemmed from the absence of jet contrails, and studies during that time period partly confirm what scientists have proposed over the past few decades: Contrails, a form of cirrus clouds, can change climate on short and long time scales.

        http://www.geotimes.org/june04/geophen.html

        Reply
      • wili

         /  November 5, 2014

        Yeah, I don’t buy the Jeavons justification, either. Just a poor attempt at rationalization and the gutter morality of “If I don’t do it, somebody else will.”

        Reply
    • messtime

       /  November 2, 2014

      It’s not the airplanes, refrigerators, cars, trucks, air conditioners that are causing the problem – it’s the fact that there are too many of them. Guy McPherson sets a very good example if he has 0 to maybe 1 or 2 children. That’s really the only example he needs to set as far as polluting the planet is concerned. I don’t drive a volkswagen so these over-breeders can drive their cadillacs. I don’t hesitate to use modern aircraft or other polluting items because it’s just me and zero children. I don’t have nor will i ever have 5 kids who all own cars, homes, trucks and other polluting items and then they each have their 5 children. It’s the over-breeders who are killing everything. We need to stay focused on the root of the problem which is that over-population creates horrible seen & unseen circumstances for the human race plus the animal kingdom.

      Reply
    • I say, let Mister McPherson retire to his ashram of grief.
      Others will keep up the fight.

      Reply
  35. Scientists: Cancel Maine Shrimp Season Again Because Of Rising Ocean Temperatures

    After an alarming report of a collapsed fishery cancelled the shrimp season in the Gulf of Maine last year due to higher water temperatures, it seemed unthinkable to locals that it would happen again.

    “There are definitely still people that were holding out hope that we might be able to get in a bit of a season this year,” said Ben Martens, who runs the Maine Coast Fishermen’s Association.

    But that’s exactly what a team of scientific experts told the federal regulators who will make the call next week in a draft report, according to the AP. The scientists on the Northern Shrimp Technical Committee told the regulatory body known as the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission that “the depleted condition of the resource” — meaning the shrimp population — can be blamed on “long term trends in environmental conditions.” And the culprit, according to the AP’s take on the draft report, is “rising ocean temperatures.”

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/10/31/3586489/maine-shrimp-season-collapse/?elq=fa784451d1624fd6bc48e5fcdf057328&elqCampaignId=1372

    Reply
  36. Future droughts in California are likely to bite deeper and last longer than the one now gripping the state, according to new research into the potential effects of climate change.

    Scientists from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the U.S. Geological Survey used computer climate modeling tools to estimate the effects of warmer temperatures in future decades. In particular, they studied the effect on California’s mountain snowpack, the largest source of fresh water in the state, which refills thousands of water-storage reservoirs each spring via snowmelt.

    The results show that by 2050, the median snowpack present on April 1 each year could be one-third smaller than the historical median, and by 2100 it could be two-thirds smaller. Such a dramatic loss of snowmelt would produce less runoff to refill reservoirs each summer, potentially making droughts an ever-present condition.

    Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/environment/article3505269.html#storylink=cpy

    Reply
  37. Colorado Bob

     /  November 2, 2014

    Global Warming And Groundwater Extraction to Push Up Sea Levels by 6ft

    Excessive groundwater removal is causing the ground to sink, adding to concerns of rising ocean levels facing coastal cities.

    A study on sea-level rise from groundwater extraction notes that while Bangkok in Thailand has sunk more than three feet since the mid-1970s, many coastal regions with large populations are also sinking in parts of Bangladesh, India and China.

    It has been documented that Jakarta in Indonesia is the world’s fastest sinking megacity, with some areas of it having subsided more than 12 feet in the past 35 years.

    John Moore, a glaciologist at Beijing Normal University in China, and colleagues determined an upper limit of 5.9 feet for global sea level rise by the year 2100, reports NBC News.

    Link

    Reply
  38. Colorado Bob

     /  November 2, 2014

    Scientists revive 700 year old virus to see if it still “works”

    Scientists have resurrected a 700 year old virus form Canadian permafrost and showed that even after several centuries of lumbering, viruses can remain… well. virulent. This could have significant implications, because as global warming continues melt more and more permafrost, unknown viruses could be released into the environment – and there’s currently no way of telling what the effects will be on modern plants, animals, and (ultimately) humans.

    The virus in case was eloquently named ancient caribou feces associated virus (aCFV); at least the name is very descriptive. The virus remained frozen in the Canadian permafrost, so its DNA was still in very good shape and was easily separated from that of the caribou. They proceeded to isolate the virus and see if it still has the ability to infect hosts – the selected host was a tobacco plant. Eric Delwart, a researcher at the Blood Systems Research Institute in San Francisco explains:

    “We demonstrate that genetic material from ancient viruses associated with caribou fecal matter was cryogenically preserved for at least seven centuries and that the cloned DNA genome of one of these viruses replicated and spread systemically in an extant plant,” Delwart wrote in a study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

    Link

    Reply
  39. Colorado Bob

     /  November 2, 2014

    Tractebel Sees Brazil Power Rationing in 2015 If No Rain

    “If drought persists, and additional government support is not forthcoming, higher costs will impel Brazilian electricity-distribution companies to raise new debt in order to meet their working capital needs over the next 12 months,” Jose Soares, a Moody’s analyst, said in a report today.

    Hydroelectric dams in Brazil’s Southeast/Midwest region are at an average of 19.54 percent of total capacity, according to the Electric System National Operator, known as ONS. That’s down from 36 percent in June.

    The last time Brazil was forced to ration power was in 2001.

    Link

    Reply
  40. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 2, 2014

    In UNPOPULAR ESSAYS published in 1950 scientific philosopher Bertrand Russel stated his simple but apocalyptic vision of the future of mankind;
    “A reversion to barbarism after a catastrophic diminution of the population of the globe.”

    Reply
  41. Well, Gerald, that was one of the potential outcomes that he saw, but what he actually seems to have said was:

    I do not pretend to know which of these will happen, or even which is the most likely. What I do contend is that the kind of system to which we have been accustomed cannot possibly continue.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1951/03/the-future-of-man/305193/

    Reply
  42. 18.9 mm rain for Sao Paolo water shed yesterday. reservoir is still showing a drop of 0.1%
    Perhaps over the next day or 2 what has fallen will find it way to the reservoir and they’ll get a bump.

    Top reservoir on this site is Sao Paolo, you can google translate it to read it (unless you know Portuguese).

    http://www2.sabesp.com.br/mananciais/DivulgacaoSiteSabesp.aspx

    Reply
  43. bassman

     /  November 2, 2014

    “Given the wildly erratic behavior of our jet stream in recent years, I believe we have already crossed one critical threshold into a more dangerous climate. ”

    -Jeff Masters 11-2-2014 in reference to the IPCC report.

    Reply
    • Ditto…

      Reply
      • Short Range Forecast Discussion
        NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
        233 AM EST Sun Nov 02 2014

        Valid 12Z Sun Nov 02 2014 – 12Z Tue Nov 04 2014

        …Heavy rain possible over parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast…

        …Heavy snow possible over parts of Northern Maine…

        …Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average along parts of the
        Southeast Coast and Central Appalachians…

        …Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above average over parts of the
        Northern/Central Plains…

        -The jet stream giveth — and it taketh. (Not very original but it fits.)

        Reply
  44. Greyson Smythe

     /  November 2, 2014

    Fantastic quote from Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the IPCC:

    With CCS it is entirely possible for fossil fuels to continue to be used on a large scale.

    Awesome! If we use CCS (a non-existant, unlikely to be feasible technology) we can keep burining!

    With friends like these…

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/02/rapid-carbon-emission-cuts-severe-impact-climate-change-ipcc-report

    Reply
  45. Kevin Jones

     /  November 2, 2014

    Yes, Greyson, we are surrounded by “friends”. From the Summary for Policy Makers: “[human activities] are extremely likely to be the dominant cause of the observer warming since the mid twentieth century.” After a quarter century of surveying the science I still haven’t seen ONE cause of ANY of the observed warming being ascribed to anything BUT human activities….

    Reply
  46. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 2, 2014

    I suspect that Pachauri may be a techno-fixer in the tradition of long departed Julian Simon.
    Wiki on Pachauri;
    He began his career with the Indian Railways at the Diesel Locomotive Works in Varanasi. He joined the North Carolina State University in Raleigh, USA, where he obtained an MS in Industrial Engineering in 1972, and a PhD with co-majors in Industrial Engineering and Economics in 1974. His doctoral thesis was titled, A dynamic model for forecasting of electrical energy demand in a specific region located in North and South Carolina.

    Reply
  47. If you get a chance, take a look at Antarctica in climate reanalyzer.

    Specifically, look at air temp anomaly, then look at air temp (average).

    The peninsula has above freezing air chunk beside it (it’s been growing for a few days). Plus the air temp itself is within ~10 to 20 degrees of freezing for a huge chunk of the continent.

    Reply
  48. Griffin

     /  November 3, 2014

    Well, with the IPCC back in the spotlight with more very bad news, it suddenly makes sense to me as to why the price of gasoline has plummeted in the US recently. There is nothing like cheap gas that makes Americans block out all talk about our climate and the ff companies know it.

    Reply
    • Apneaman

       /  November 3, 2014

      If the IPCC was to start sounding like Guy McPherson, I don’t think it would make a damn bit of difference. The explanations for the lack of urgency/indifference no longer matter. Not enough people seem to care or they care but are unwilling to change or most of our species is stupid or the propaganda is too powerful or the Koch bros are magic. I’m not even reading any of the stories about the IPCC this time because it don’t matter; I have heard it all before and so have y’all. Nothing changes if nothing changes.

      Reply
  49. Warm and moist here in Portland, OR USA.
    Heat to water– ocean warming and hot air go back and forth trying to balance during rapid changes. Real time weather science anomalies.
    Am I a gas, or am I liquid?
    It depends on when you ask.
    -dt
    ###
    PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    430 PM PDT SAT NOV 1 2014

    …RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
    PRECIPITATION OBSERVED FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER 2014…

    Reply
  50. Ouse M.D.

     /  November 3, 2014

    November and 20 C in Münich, endless sunshine.
    How do we know this extra heat is not already the methane forcing?
    Would we know?
    Does methane in the oceans already act as a heat trapper or only in the atmosphere?

    Reply
  51. Bernard

     /  November 3, 2014

    Something’s burning in South Sumatra near the Bangka-Belitung Islands. On the 1st Nov you see a dense smog which spreads over the next 2 days.

    People in South and Central Kalimantan may also want to buy masks.

    Reply
  52. Colorado Bob

     /  November 3, 2014

    Hottest October on record in Australia as fire danger rises

    Also clocking up record months for maximums were Western Australia and South Australia, helping to drive the country to its hottest October in records going back to 1911.

    Nationally, maximums were 2.76 degrees above normal, eclipsing the 2.63-degree anomaly set in 1988, the bureau said. Victoria had its second hottest October, as did the Northern Territory.

    Sydney posted its equal-sixth hottest October, with a cooler patch during the middle of the month in the wake of huge storms limiting the heat. Even so, the city’s maximums, at 24.5 degrees, were 2.4 degrees above normal for October, the bureau said.

    Read more: Link

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  November 3, 2014

      El Nino looms

      A dominant influence on the temperature is the El Nino-like conditions in the Pacific, with unusual warmth reported in central and eastern equatorial regions.

      Since the Pacific takes up less heat during El Nino years, global temperatures increase, adding a boost to the background warming created by climate change.

      The odds are narrowing that 2014 will be the hottest year globally, and record warmth for a region as large as Australia in October will add to the likelihood of such an outcome.

      El Nino years typically bring elevated temperatures to much of Australia and also increased drought as rainfall systems shift eastwards away from the continent.

      Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/hottest-october-on-record-in-australia-as-fire-danger-rises-20141103-11fzsw.html#ixzz3I0T81Ako

      Reply
  53. Colorado Bob

     /  November 3, 2014

    267. hydrus
    9:19 AM GMT on November 03, 2014

    An absolute monster low not far from Alaska..919 MB is one of the lowest pressures I have seen for a non tropical entity….919 mb,s is 27.14 inches..Which is lower than Hurricane Andrew,s pressure at landfall.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2849#commenttop

    Reply
    • Fractal

       /  November 3, 2014

      CB: Incorrect; 919milibars = 29.26 inches. A run of the mill Gulf of Alaska system.

      Reply
      • 919 x 0295301 = 27.1381619
        Two different conversion tables come up with the 27.138 inches.
        That’s low low. I would be wide eyed if I was watching this on a barometer.

        Reply
    • Griffin

       /  November 3, 2014

      Remnants of Nuri which will transition to extra-tropical before bringing hurricane force winds to the Aleutians.

      Reply
    • rayduray

       /  November 4, 2014

      Keep in mind this is merely a prediction 114 hours (4.75 days) ahead of the real time actuality.

      These long range predictions are getting to be a major annoyance (to me) on the WU Jeff Masters blog. It’s almost invariably wishcasting by thrill-seekers hoping to see catastrophes around every corner. These people do get tedious. This season they predicted 10 of the last 2 major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. 🙂

      Reply
  54. Sao Paolo reservoir is down 0.2% again with 5mm rain. This may be the new pace of depletion at this level unfortunately.

    11.9% – 10.7% dead pool = 1.2%

    http://www2.sabesp.com.br/mananciais/DivulgacaoSiteSabesp.aspx

    Reply
  55. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 3, 2014

    CB, hardEST hard numbers for anybody who cares about anything. Almost beyond belief.
    And even the “conservative” recent IPCC Report claims that we are committed to a 2 degree C increase.
    And “the chair ” economist Pachauri is preaching carbon capture & storage while his colleagues are simultaneously demanding massive prompt cutbacks of fossil fuel burning lest we all cook.

    Reply
  56. Fractal

     /  November 3, 2014

    CB, My Bad! 919mb does = 27.14 inches.

    Reply
  57. bassman

     /  November 3, 2014

    Hadcrut is in with Sept temps also warmest on record, the Cowtan and Way adjustment is also record warmest for September.

    UAH is up at .37 for October, likely making 2014 the 3rd warmest on record behind 2010 and 1998. Way too sensitive to ENSO.

    Reply
  58. bassman

     /  November 3, 2014

    Holy holy crap this paper is a big breaking event. I would read this right away. Negative volcanic forcing post 2000 way underestimated. A BFD.

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL061541/abstract

    Reply
    • rayduray

       /  November 4, 2014

      Bassman,

      I cannot agree with your assessment here. When I look at satellite images of the planet, the thing that is stunning is seasonal and immense brown haze over India and China. There’s your source of global dimming, by and large. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_brown_cloud

      I am a regular reader of Eric Klemetti’s Eruptions blog I’ve been reading it for years. I can’t recall any discussion, other than of the obvious cooling caused by Mt. Pinatubo in the early 1990s being discussed as impacting global cooling in anything other than a background manner.

      Reply
      • rayduray

         /  November 4, 2014

        Eric Klemetti’s Eruptions Blog: http://www.wired.com/category/eruptions/

        Reply
      • bassman

         /  November 4, 2014

        Fair enough, although they are not my assessments. The paper can stand on its own findings if valid. I agree that Aerosols from Asia are a fat greater effect, no question. But if they are right then volcanoes may have been cooling the planet post 2000 a lot more than we thought. .05 to .12 neg cooling is nothing to sneeze at.

        Reply
      • Thanks for the link rayduray, I guess to put it simply, this paper suggests that volcanic forcing is about twice what earlier studies this year and last suggested. This implies that volcanic forcing could account from 20-40% of the recent slowdown in surface warming (if it has slowed down at all).

        This paper is just one paper and I don’t know the authors. If anyone else wants to comment it would be greatly appreciated.

        Reply
      • bassman & rayduray, I think it’s important to keep in mind that those aerosols (volcanic, smoke, soot, and dust) are very different in composition, mass, weight, aerodynamics, — and light absorbing or deflecting characteristics, static charges, etc. Plus with warming oceans etc, there is a growing amount of moisture in this finite atmosphere of ours.
        Please get back if I’m wrong about some of this.
        Peace

        Reply
      • rayduray

         /  November 4, 2014

        dtlange,

        What you say makes perfect sense to me. It’s complicated.🙂

        bassman,

        I’m certainly no expert on the cooling effect of minor volcanoes. I tend to focus on the big anomalies like the volcanic activity that brought about the “Year Without A Summer” for example.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

        Reply
  59. Colorado Bob

     /  November 4, 2014

    Record Warmth in Western Europe/Record Cold and Snow in Eastern U.S.

    The first weekend of November has brought an interesting contrast of weather regimes between the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe. All-time November warmth enveloped portions of Western Europe while the Eastern U.S. endured an early season snowstorm and some daily record low temperatures (in the Southeast).

    Western European Warmth

    An anomalously strong upper-level high-pressure dome has brought record warm temperatures to parts of Western Europe the past few days. In the U.K. on October 31st, Gravesend, Kent (just east of London) saw its temperature peak at 23.5°C (74.3°F), the warmest temperature ever observed so late in the year for the nation. The warmest October temperature on record for the U.K. is 29.9°C (85.8°F) at Gravesend on October 1, 2011 and the warmest November reading just 21.7°C (71.1°F) at Prestatyn on November 4, 1946, so we see how unusual was last Friday’s figure from Gravesend. In France temperatures peaked at 30.1°C (86.2°F) at Biscarosse and Dax in the southwestern part of the country, truly phenomenal warmth for this time of the year (keep in mind that the latitude of these two sites is around 44° N!).

    On Saturday, November 1st, the warmth expanded eastward over the Low Countries, Germany, and Scandinavia. In Norway, Orsta-Volda/Hovden (62° 11’ N) reached 19.2°C (66.6°F), not too far from the Norwegian November national record of 21.8°C (71.2°F) set at Tafjord on November 6, 2003. In France all time November heat records were set at four of Paris’s weather stations:

    Paris Montsouris: 21.4°C (70.5°F) previous record 21.0°C/69.8°F on Nov. 2, 1899

    Paris Roissy: 20.7°C (69.3°F) previous record 19.7°C/67.5°F on Nov. 8, 1983

    Paris Le Bourget: 20.6°C (69.1°F) previous record 20.3°C/68.5°F on Nov. 6, 1955

    Paris Orly: 20.5°C (68.9°F) previous record 20.1°C/68.2°F on Nov. 6, 1955 and Nov. 3, 1933

    Holland broke its all-time national heat record for November when the temperature peaked at 22.0°C (71.6°F) at Ell on November 1st. The previous national record was 21.1°C (70.0°F) at Maastricht on Nov. 4, 1994. Maastricht reached 21.4°C (70.5°F), obviously its new November record along with Eindhoven with 20.6°C (69.1°F), Amsterdam with 18.2°C (64.8°F), Rotterdam 18.3°C (64.9°F), Einhoven 20.6°C (69.1°F), and others.

    In Germany, all-time November warmth was observed at Dusseldorf Lohausen : 20.4°C (68.7°F), Kohl Bonn Airport: 20.2°C (68.4°F), and Bremen: 20.1°C (68.2°F).

    In Belgium, Spa La Sauveniere saw its November record broken with a 19.5°C (67.1°F) reading.

    Of course, the above is just a partial list. Literally hundreds of records were set in the region (this following an exceptionally warm October as well).
    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=313

    Reply
    • The USA PNW has its record warming anomalies.
      Here’s a news piece I wrote for my local community KBOO FM radio that didn’t make on today’s PM News but hopefully tomorrow.
      It’s written “Anchor Speak” for a news anchor to read on-air.

      1103 OR PORTLANDS WARM OCTOBER

      IF YOU PORTLANDERS FELT A BIT WARM THIS FALL,
      IT’S BECAUSE YOU WERE.
      MORE THAN FIVE DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

      YOU WERE WETTER TOO.
      ALMOST SIX INCHES WORTH OF ABOVE NORMAL RAIN FELL ON US IN OCTOBER.

      DATA RELEASED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHOWED:
      ASTORIA-WASHINGTON AND SALEM, EUGENE, AND HILLSBORO OREGON ALL HAD SIMILAR WARM AND WET WEATHER FOR OCTOBER.

      THESE TEMPERATURES PUT US AT TWO-POINT-SEVEN DEGREES-CELSIUS WARMER THAN USUAL.

      WHICH IS IN-LINE WITH BUT ABOVE THE TWO DEGREES CELSIUS GLOBAL WARMING THRESHOLD PUT FORTH BY CLIMATE SCIENTISTS.

      FOR MORE ABOUT OCTOBER’S WEATHER PATTERNS: SEE THE STATISTICS FROM THE WARM AND WET OCTOBER PORTLAND AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE- PORTLAND.

      Reply
  60. Colorado Bob

     /  November 4, 2014

    JOHANNESBURG – The South African Weather Service has warned that certain provinces could be at risk of flash floods over the next few days……………………….. The weather service had said Gauteng experienced four times more rain in 11 days than expected for an entire month.
    http://ewn.co.za/2014/11/03/Weather-service-warns-of-possible-flash-floods

    Reply
  61. Apneaman

     /  November 4, 2014

    The west is inconsequential. If China goes ahead with all their industrialization plans (too many to list) that is more than enough to seal the deal. India is like China’s little brother who will do anything to catch up (look at me look at me!) and gain global recognition and money. Russia, Canada and anyone else who can will gladly sell them the dirty fuel. Meanwhile Wall Street, London, Brussels, etc, are lubricating the financial gears for all of it and getting their slice. Dozens of trillions of dollars are in play and no one is even showing up for the fake climate summits anymore. Except the well paid NGOs and big money green washers.

    China and Russia thwart plan for Antarctic ocean sanctuary

    “China “challenged almost every conservation mandate that was presented” during the two weeks of talks,…”

    “China was “an across the board conservation-spoiler”

    http://news.yahoo.com/china-russia-thwart-plan-antarctic-ocean-sanctuary-162056300.html

    Reply
  62. Colorado Bob

     /  November 4, 2014

    Monday, October 27, 2014
    Scorching City breaks October heat record; storm alert issued
    Temperatures in the City of Buenos Aires today reached 35.2° Celsius, breaking an historical record for the month of October as a heat wave descended on most of Argentina in the last few days.

    In a day marked by scorching weather conditions, the heat index for the capital closed in on 40°C. The National Meterological Service (SMN) confirmed that at 4pm the temperature reached 35.2°C, surpassing the previous benchmark of 34.5°C recorded in October 2009.

    30 Oct 2014

    Severe storms lash Buenos Aires
    Flash floods and damaging winds leave Argentina’s capital in the dark.

    Buenos Aires had 139mm of rain on Thursday. The October average is only 86mm so it comes as no great surprise that severe flooding occurred and at one stage the Luján River was rising at around 20cm per hour.

    Link

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  November 4, 2014

      Nov. 3, 2014 –
      The Central Observatory of Buenos Aires reported Monday that in the past three days a total of 122 mm (4.8 in.) of rain has fallen in the Argentine capital, compared with the average of 108 mm (4.3 in.) for all of November.

      This is the second major storm the Buenos Aires area has suffered in less than a week. Last Wednesday and Thursday, another storm drowned a teenager in Lujan, 60 km (37 mi.) west of the capital.

      Link

      Reply
  63. Colorado Bob

     /  November 4, 2014

    Arctic Warming: Scientists Identify New Driver

    Scientists have identified a mechanism that could turn out to be a big contributor to warming in the Arctic region and melting sea ice.
    The research was led by scientists from the US Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab). They studied a long-wavelength region of the electromagnetic spectrum called far infrared. It’s invisible to our eyes but accounts for about half the energy emitted by Earth’s surface. This process balances out incoming solar energy.

    Despite its importance in the planet’s energy budget, it’s difficult to measure a surface’s effectiveness in emitting far-infrared energy. In addition, its influence on the planet’s climate is not well represented in climate models. The models assume that all surfaces are 100 percent efficient in emitting far-infrared energy.

    That’s not the case. The scientists found that open oceans are much less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum. This means that the Arctic Ocean traps much of the energy in far-infrared radiation, a previously unknown phenomenon that is likely contributing to the warming of the polar climate.

    Link

    Reply
    • Wow, great stuff here. I’ve often wondered about the varying wavelengths of light in the atmosphere and what effects they have on the world. Thanks for the link CB.

      “Earth continues to emit energy in the far infrared during the polar winter,” Feldman says. “And because ocean surfaces trap this energy, the system is warmer throughout the year as opposed to only when the sun is out.”

      The simulations revealed a similar warming affect on the Tibetan plateau, where there was five percent less snowpack after a 25-year run. This means more non-frozen surface area to trap far-infrared energy, which further contributes to warming in the region.

      “We found that in very arid areas, the extent to which the surface emits far-infrared energy really matters. It controls the thermal energy budget for the entire region, so we need to measure and model it better,” …

      Reply
      • wili

         /  November 4, 2014

        Another reason that we may see a rather rapid transmission from a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean to a year-round ice-free one?

        Reply
  64. Colorado Bob

     /  November 4, 2014

    Global warming takes bite out of Colorado ski season

    Record temps hold off snow guns, delay resort openings
    Link

    Reply
    • That’s right. Last season, N. Cal & S. Oregon had minimal to zero ski season due to low snowpack. The same in Arizona at the San Francisco peaks the previous year — just diesel snowmakers to keep some cash registers going for the hard core.
      And all those fossil fuel car trips up from the ‘burbs…

      Reply
  65. Mark from New England

     /  November 4, 2014

    Let’s hope that as a result of today’s midterm elections in the US that Senator James Inofe (R-OK, dustbowl) doesn’t become the next chair of the Senate Science and Technology Committee! The decline of ‘Roman Empire II’ quickens…

    Reply
    • bassman

       /  November 4, 2014

      I just hope Hickenlooper and Crist win. The GOP will take the senate with 52 or 53.

      Reply
  66. Colorado Bob

     /  November 4, 2014

    Another “new” set of mountain images taken over time –
    Global warming in the mountains

    People often say that GW is slow and hard to see. One place you can see it is in the mountains. I don’t have many pix that show it well, but here’s one pair. We’re looking at the Sulzenauferner. The first is from 2014, and is taken from the path up to the Beiljoch (which said col is visible in the lower pair of pix) between the Sulzenauhutte and the Dresdener. The Zuckerhutl is straight on, buried in cloud, how unusual.

    http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2014/11/03/global-warming-in-the-mountains/

    Reply
  67. Colorado Bob

     /  November 4, 2014

    And the Super Typhoons continue in the Western Pacific –

    Nuri strengthens to super typhoon

    The storm has maximum sustained winds of 178 mph and gusts of up to 218 mph.

    Link

    Reply
  68. Colorado Bob

     /  November 4, 2014

    Expert predicts ice-free Arctic by 2020 as UN releases climate report

    That’s about two decades sooner than various models for climatic warming have indicated the Arctic might fully open.

    “No models here,” Peter Wadhams, professor of applied mathematics and theoretical physics at the University of Cambridge in England, told the Arctic Circle Assembly in Reykjavik, Iceland, on Sunday. “This is data.”

    Wadhams has access to data not only on the extent of ice covering the Arctic, but on the thickness of that ice. The latter comes from submarines that have been beneath the ice collecting measurements every year since 1979.
    http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2014/11/expert-predicts-ice-free-arctic-2020-un-releases-climate-report-04-11

    Reply
  69. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 4, 2014

    Although Trenberth is wrong about his reversed causal chains ( i.e. the mangled jet stream causes arctic heating not vice-versa ); his mangled theory of mangled jet streams from heaven is partially correct because the winds from Nuri will surely churn the Arctic, as per Shakhova & Semiletov, causing more runaway Arctic heating from more released methane.

    That Trenberth is one slick fellow, & he is not a lawyer.

    Reply
  70. Colorado Bob

     /  November 4, 2014

    10 takeaways from the 2014 Arctic Circle Assembly

    REYKJAVIK, Iceland — The second annual Arctic Circle Assembly wrapped up Sunday in this beautiful city on the western shore of a 40,000-square-mile, volcanic rock in the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean, and most of the 1,300 people who came from around the globe to discuss the future of the Arctic began boarding the jet airplanes that would take them home.

    The dream of Iceland President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, the small country’s No. 1 promoter, and Alice Rogoff, publisher of Alaska Dispatch News, the assembly is part economic summit, part environmental conference, and part social gathering that does nothing so much as encourage discussion of Arctic issues.

    Here are 10 main takeaways from the discussions at the 2014 assembly:

    1. The Big Thaw Has Only Just Begun. Everywhere scientists gathered here there was talk of feedback loops of one sort or another. Melting permafrost is releasing methane gas, a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, to fuel more Arctic warming. Melting sea ice is exposing more ocean to the sun to capture more solar radiation to fuel more Arctic warming. Warming Arctic water is evaporating to form more water vapor, yet another greenhouse gas, to fuel Arctic warming. All of this is now underway, and as British physicist Peter Wadhams observed, there seems no natural mechanism for turning these processes off. There seemed a broad consensus that even if the developed world acts soon to reduce carbon dioxide emissions — an iffy proposition — the Arctic is going to continue warming for decades. Wadhams is predicting the end of the polar ice cap by the summer of 2020.

    Link

    Reply
    • “Warming Arctic water is evaporating to form more water vapor, yet another greenhouse gas, to fuel Arctic warming…”

      Reply
  71. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 4, 2014

    That sumbitch Wadhams keeps going on about hard empirical data & Bayesian updates making it difficult for brilliant pure theorists, armchair philosophers, & Trenberth modelers.

    Reply
  72. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 4, 2014

    I think that we ought to submit all the acrimonious dispute about causal chains & predictive power to a court of law(s) with trained lawyers & astute judges.
    Whaddaboud the Columbian necklace what done kilt Nicole Simpson daid, hey?

    Reply
  73. Colorado Bob

     /  November 4, 2014

    A really great site on glacier retreat around the world, very well done !

    From a Glaciers Perspective
    Glacier Change in a world of Climate Change
    https://glacierchange.wordpress.com/

    Reply
  74. Colorado Bob

     /  November 4, 2014

    The fourth time in the last 60 days :

    South-eastern France hit by violent storms

    Winds reached up to 160km/h in parts of the Rhône Valley overnight on Monday.

    The country’s meteorological service Météo France said heavy rains will continue in the region until Wednesday morning. As much as 450mm of rain could fall before the storms pass.

    Link

    Reply
  75. Colorado Bob

     /  November 4, 2014

    Typhoon Nuri Poised to Become an Alaskan Super Storm; Vance Drenching Mexico

    However, once Nuri loses its tropical characteristics and moves into the Bering Sea to the west of Alaska on Friday, a very powerful jet stream will interact with ex-Nuri and cause it to rapidly intensify into one of the strongest low pressure systems ever observed in the Pacific Ocean. The GFS and European models continue to predict that the extratropical version of Super Typhoon Nuri will become a powerful sub-925 mb low with hurricane-force winds in the western Aleutian Islands on Friday night and Saturday morning. The 00Z Tuesday run of the European model predicted that ex-Nuri would bottom out at 920 mb at 06Z Saturday, a few hundred miles west of the westernmost Aleutian Islands. The 00Z Tuesday GFS model had the storm reaching 924 mb a few hundred miles northeast of there. According to wunderground’s weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the all-time Alaska low pressure record is 926 mb at Dutch Harbor on October 25, 1977.

    Link

    Reply
  76. Colorado Bob

     /  November 4, 2014

    Mount Mannen rockslide – still in an accelerated creep phase of movement

    That the downslope material is likely to be fragmented, and thus more easily entrained, explains the estimates that the final mobile volume may be in the order of 2 million cubic metres.

    http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/

    Reply
    • That’s a lot mountain ready to move.

      Below: I saw this slide area in 1974. It was quite impressive.

      -The Hope Slide was the largest landslide ever recorded in Canada.[1] It occurred in the morning hours of January 9, 1965 in the Nicolum Valley in the Cascade Mountains near Hope, British Columbia, and killed four people. The volume of rock involved in the landslide has been estimated at 47 million cubic metres.

      Reply
      • Andy in San Diego

         /  November 5, 2014

        Been past that slide many times starting around ’68, it was a pretty fresh scar then. It’s intimidating when you see what it did.

        Reply
  77. Colorado Bob

     /  November 4, 2014

    Published on Nov 4, 2014

    Two people have died and thousands evacuated during floods in Argentina’s Buenos Aires province following more than 40 hours of incessant heavy rains since Thursday.

    Reply
  78. joni

     /  November 4, 2014

    http://billmoyers.com/2014/10/28/gop-takes-senate-climate-change-deniers-will-control-key-committees/

    If the GOP Takes the Senate, Climate Change Deniers Will Control Key Committees

    – Environment and Public Works Committee: Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) is in line to take control of the EPQ chairmanship, which would give him authority over the EPA. Inhofe, who has compared climate change activists to Nazis, has already signaled that he will go after regulators on a raft of issues concerning greenhouse gases, from methane leaks to the new rules over coal-fire power plants.

    – Subcommittee on Science and Space: As current ranking member of this subcommittee, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has a good shot at becoming the chairman. This vital subcommittee oversees the National Science Foundation, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and issues relating to federally funded scientific research. Cruz is a proud denier of climate change science. When he ran for office in 2012, Cruz told reporters in Texas that global warming ceased in 1997. Earlier this year, in an interview with CNN, Cruz again questioned the science, claiming the “data are not supporting what the advocates are arguing.”

    – Homeland Security and Governmental Reform Committee: Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), in line to take control of the Homeland Security Committee, would likely use his perch to continue to harass scientists. The committee is the Senate’s chief investigative and oversight body. Johnson has already distinguished himself with outbursts against Dr. James Hansen, using a hearing earlier this year as an opportunity to tell the award-winning NASA scientist that climate “science is far from settled.” Johnson, who claims that “sunspot activity” is responsible for any changes in climate, has also railed against groups pushing for reform, accusing one of “environmental jihad.”

    – Budget Committee: Sen. Mike Enzi (R-WY) has brushed aside the threat of climate change, calling the debate over the issue a “waste of money.” As the next possible chair of the Budget Committee, Enzi may have a chance to rewrite the budget and reduce funding for agencies attempting to regulate carbon pollution. There has been talk about Republicans shutting the government down in a bid to defund the EPA over its climate change rules. Enzi has already criticized the EPA’s coal regulations, and could move such a strategy forward.

    What are the odds that this election combined with a recalcitrant China and India will effectively torpedo COP21 before the meeting even begins?

    Reply
    • Apneaman

       /  November 4, 2014

      COP21, like all the others, is merely theater and so is who controls the Senate. The dems could have 100% control and we would still not see any MEANINGFUL emission reductions. Everyone who cared and was fighting has been stick handled for a couple of decades. Even if the west did reduce our emissions to the necessary level, China and India will not follow suit. Ever. I think they have made themselves perfectly clear. They do not fucking care. Science, evidence, logic, human suffering and death have not swayed any of the money people and a good chunk of the masses. Do not expect more of the same to change their minds. There is not going to be some Ah ha! moment, some planet wide wake up call. We are doing what we are doing cause that’s what we do. Risen apes not fallen angels.

      Reply
    • Griffin

       /  November 4, 2014

      Inhofe. All I can think of is that moron landing his plane on a closed runway in Oklahoma. For anyone who has never seen a closed runway, they have a giant X with lights prominently placed at the end. There is no way you could miss it. He was flying, he claimed he never saw it, or the trucks and workers on the runway too. He flew right over their heads. I guess it only makes sense that he doesn’t have the intelligence to see climate change either, or he thinks he can just get away with it like he did his illegal landing.

      Reply
      • Andy in San Diego

         /  November 5, 2014

        This fellow in charge of anything to do with the health / welfare of anyone is akin to having Charles Manson on LSD taking care of the kids at the daycare.

        If he winds up in charge of any such item simply declares the entire concept of this nation as destroyed, and all of the hard work of the founders to avoid this as circumvented. I sadly would declare the USA as over (bought and paid for by the highest bidder).

        Setting up a new computer so hope nothing goes amiss (1st new computer in 11 years, and I’m a coder).

        Reply
      • Gerald Spezio

         /  November 5, 2014

        Inhofe takes his methodology & lesson plan from the Israelis.
        Israel bought the “REPRESENTATIVE” US gov decades ago.
        Jimbo passionately supports all Israeli butchery & land theft in Palestine.
        Jimbo says that all the Palestinian land belongs to Israel.
        http://www.inhofe.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/inhofe-the-land-belongs-to-israel-period

        Reply
  79. Brazil scientist blames logging for extreme drought

    “We must do the same to avoid falling into the climactic abyss and save humanity—and it will not even cost as much.”

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-11-brazil-scientist-blames-extreme-drought.html#jCp

    Reply
    • RWood

       /  November 5, 2014

      Somewhat better examination of the threats in Brazil [indigenous people whose forests are open to depredation and viciousness of the PTB].
      http://dissidentvoice.org/2014/11/ministry-of-injustice-vs-indigenous-peoples/#more-56171

      Reply
      • What these mercenary business interests are doing in Brazil is worse than fascism or terrorism.
        Be sure that the American Republican Party has the same ‘game plan’ for us all.
        And all done with the blessing of the American voter, and the lazy non-voters.
        What’s next?

        Reply
      • Mark from New England

         /  November 5, 2014

        What’s next? – A more rapid descent into Fascism American-style, or ‘Inverted Totalitarianism’ as historian Sheldon Wolin puts it.

        Even Maine couldn’t get rid of their crazy governor LePage. And Scott Walker in Wisconsin and Scott in Florida. At least in New Hampshire we bucked the red tide and kept our Democratic governor and defeated Scott Brown.

        Reply
    • Notable points: “… similar urgency must be shown to save forests elsewhere, including Congo and Siberia.
      “Governments around the world, businessmen and elites must act as they did in the face of the (economic) crisis of 2008. In a fortnight they found trillions of dollars to save the banking system.”

      Reply
  80. Colorado Bob

     /  November 5, 2014

    Amid Terror Attacks, Iraq Faces Water Crisis
    Islamic State’s assault on dams and water systems threatens Iraq’s supply, which was already squeezed by dams in Turkey and Iran.

    TELSKUF, Iraq—Viewed from afar, the two-mile-long Mosul Dam is an impressive sight on the flat, sunbaked northern plains.

    Move closer, though, and its appearance has a menacing air. The bullet-riddled causeway and abandoned guard posts tell of the dam’s seizure by Islamic State terrorists in early August, and the bomb craters and flattened armored vehicles are evidence of its recapture by Kurdish fighters 12 days later. (Related: “Refugee Flood Heightens Long-Standing Tensions Between Turks and Kurds.”)

    The sorry state of Iraq’s biggest dam, about 31 miles (50 kilometers) northwest of Mosul city on the Tigris River, shows how water has become another weapon in the terror group’s arsenal. But its steadily retreating reservoir tells another story, one of how Iraq’s water shortage is growing more urgent by the day.

    Built in the early 1980s to supply water, irrigate fields, control floods, and generate electricity, the dam offers an apt metaphor for the war-torn country’s shaky foundation. Its dry spillways are plastered with cement to fill cracks, while the permeable gypsum base has required injections of grout to prevent its collapse since it opened.

    Iraq was grappling with water woes long before the Islamic State jihadist group surged through its northwestern provinces and routed much of its army over the summer. But the sudden loss of prime agricultural land and the swift appropriation of scarce water resources have intensified the crisis.

    This army of extremist Iraqis and foreign fighters, which now rules considerable territory in Syria and Iraq, has demonstrated a willingness to use water to defeat its foes. Iraqis in endangered areas whose livelihood depends on a reliable supply are panicked.

    Link

    Reply
    • Andy in San Diego

       /  November 5, 2014

      Mosul dam is build on Gypsum. It is structurally unsound and must be continuously grouted underneath or it will collapse.

      Reply
    • Gerald Spezio

       /  November 5, 2014

      Daniel Pipes says; “Those filthy Islamofascists in the Iraqi rubble won’t ever threaten cultured & peace loving Israel when they don’t have any water. Now all we have to do is bomb Iran & Israel will have a free hand to exterminate the Palestinians & steal all the land.”

      Reply
  81. Colorado Bob

     /  November 5, 2014

    Severe Drought Hastens Hydropower’s Slow Decline

    Coal retirements, the shale gas bonanza, post-Fukushima nuclear curtailments, the rising adoption of distributed generation, and emerging price parity for solar PV and wind – the dynamic changes impacting electricity grids worldwide are many. Now, with prolonged droughts affecting leading global economies, like Brazil and California (the world’s seventh and eighth largest economies by gross domestic product [GDP], respectively), a slow decline in the prominence of hydropower is in the mix.

    Link

    Reply
  82. My news report, read by an ‘anchor’ was broadcast today.
    The last line was most important. The point being, “We’re now in a known, publicized danger zone. Which we don’t often hear in the media.” Adding a hard context to a data driven story is challenging, ie without editorializing.
    Let me know if it’s weak, or off. Thanks

    1103 OR PORTLANDS WARM OCTOBER

    … MORE THAN FIVE DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

    … WHICH IS IN-LINE WITH BUT ABOVE THE TWO DEGREES CELSIUS GLOBAL WARMING THRESHOLD PUT FORTH BY CLIMATE SCIENTISTS.

    Reply
    • Apneaman

       /  November 5, 2014

      “The biggest loser in this election is the climate” The climate does not care. See how the hipster news organization frames it? How about mentioning all the dead babies we will soon see? And neighbors beating the shit out of each other for the last gallon of water or scrap of food. No the big losers will be people, starting with the poor on the periphery and working towards the center.

      Reply
  83. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 5, 2014

    Four more years of lawyerfish/privatize everything Rick Scott in Florida.
    Florida rednecks defeat medical pot by one million votes.

    Reply
  84. Andy in San Diego

     /  November 5, 2014

    Sao Paolo down 0.1% in the past 24 hrs. It appears they need ~15 – 16mm / day to keep at a zero loss / no gain situation. They are 1.1% from dead pool.

    November sees historically ~161 mm monthly precipitation, or 5.6 mm / day.

    In order to keep the reservoir steady at 1.1%, they would need ~300% of the average rainfall (~16mm/day) (~450mm/November). At ~5mm/day (normal) they should see 0.1% drop every 24-48 hours. This puts them at dead pool by ~Nov. 21st.

    http://www2.sabesp.com.br/mananciais/DivulgacaoSiteSabesp.aspx

    Reply
    • Andy in San Diego

       /  November 5, 2014

      The historical average November rainfall (161mm) is for the water shed for Sao Paolo (not the nation).

      Reply
  85. entropicman

     /  November 5, 2014

    The rain Sao Paulo needed went further South and flooded Buenos Aires

    Reply
  86. Colorado Bob

     /  November 5, 2014

    The fifth storm in 60 days –
    The French Riviera and parts of south-eastern France were hit by violent storms this week which left a woman dead after a mud slide and saw roads flooded, power cuts and rivers burst their banks. Here’s a selection of the dramatic images.

    IN IMAGES: Violent storms lash the French Riviera

    http://www.thelocal.fr/galleries/news/in-images-violent-storms-lash-french-riviera

    Reply
  87. USA Republican’s Senate Controlled Climate Strategy Revealed

    http://windspiritkeeper.blogspot.com/2014/11/usa-republicans-senate-controlled.html

    Reply
  88. Colorado Bob

     /  November 5, 2014

    UK on course for warmest year on record

    New figures published by the Met Office show the period from January to October this year has been the warmest since records began in 1910 – and it has also been the second wettest.

    Link

    Reply
    • And in tandem with the weather, there is the human toll from emissions:

      NottinghamPostOnline

      AIR pollution is responsible for more than 500 deaths a year across Nottinghamshire, it has been revealed.

      Car exhausts and burning fossil fuels are being blamed for dangerous levels of nitrous oxide and sulphur dioxide, which can irritate people with lung conditions.

      Nottingham was named as one of the worst cities for air pollution in 2013 – with four days where levels hit the top end of the scale.

      Now, the city council and Nottinghamshire County Council say they will be looking at what can be done to improve the county’s air.

      Reply
      • Apneaman

         /  November 6, 2014

        How many deaths world wide I wonder. Here in Canada no one cares about that exhaust, not really. What they do here to not think about their contributions is scapegoat cigarette smokers. Yes I know because I have smoked for years (keep starting & stopping). We are the modern day typhoid Mary’s. In real life, I’m quite a typical overly polite Canadian (I’m mostly just a asshole online or when I get really angry) so I go smoke out in parking lots well away from any buildings, yet still get dirty looks. Not too long ago a SUV driving soccer mom and her 3 chunky kids got out of their over-sized carbon pollution machine and as they were walking by me while I was smoking she actually made that tisk noise as if I was contaminating her kids oxygen supply. Bitch;) Although I came from the lower middle class and lived that way as an adult until 5-6 years ago, I have lost most of any sympathies I had for what has been lost/stolen from them because the majority of them show as much sympathy and indifference toward the improvised and oppressed as the elite are showing toward the middle class and the impoverished. Maybe I have had too high of expectations of others. I think my boomer semi hippie parents may have unintentionally done me disservice by bringing us up on all that “Free To Be You And Me” stuff.

        Reply
  89. Colorado Bob

     /  November 5, 2014

    Surface temperature in India follows global warming trend –

    The IPCC report said the period from 1983 to 2012 was probably the warmest 30-year period in the last 1400 years.

    Though data for that long is not available in India, a consistent rise in temperature is being observed in the surface temperature over the country, in conformity with the global trend. The opening decade of the 21st century was the warmest decade in the last 110 years at least. The mean temperature, averaged over the entire country, between 2000-2010 was almost 1 degree Celsius higher than that between 1901-1910. Eight of the ten warmest years since 1900 have also been recorded in this decade.
    – See more at: Link

    Reply
  90. Andy (at work)

     /  November 5, 2014

    Satellite imagery / data for Arctic / Antarctic and other areas has been pushed back 17 years, into the 60’s. The Nimbus satellites collected data back then and the data was stored (for decades). it has been recovered and is not available at this link. High / Low extents etc… can be determined from this data. For all you data / info spelunkers this is a gold mine.

    http://nsidc.org/data/nimbus/data-sets.html

    Reply
  91. Really important lecture… (shame about all the annoying questions)

    Prof. David Battisti – “Global Food Production and Climate Change”

    Reply
  92. On the nuclear power side of our current energy equation, out of Japan:

    -Deutsche Welle
    Fukushima disaster site ‘like a science fiction film’

    Science journalist Ranga Yogeshwar has gained extensive access to Japan’s battered Fukushima power plant.

    DW: Mr Yogeshwar, can you describe what you saw when you arrived at the nuclear plant?

    Ranga Yogeshwar: We all remember these dramatic pictures from the catastrophe back in 2011, and you can see the scars of this catastrophe. You can see buildings which are partially torn down, you can see how the tsunami devastated the area, the cooling systems, and so on. So it’s a mixture of things which are old and on the other side, new constructions. Normally if you construct something new you first take away the debris. In Fukushima the debris are still there.

    Reply
    • Gerald Spezio

       /  November 6, 2014

      Does this gruesome photo have a date? Is it a [photo of present Fuku?

      Reply
  93. Colorado Bob

     /  November 6, 2014

    todaysguestis
    Hell of a lecture .

    Reply
  94. Historical tidbit: Back in 2010-2011, I was trying to bring attention to dense concentrations black soot and dark gray traffic dust building up in Santa Barbara, CA, USA.

    The California Air Resources Board (ARB) and I had a lot of back and forth (phone and emails w/photos) communications. They were very helpful in any areas they could be.
    Their satellite imagery person told me that they could not spot, or document my concerns from their end. Fair enough.
    But at the same time and using Google Earth, I could bring up images of plumes, drifts, and trails of the dark gray dust that matched my photos. The densest concentrations were downwind of US Highway 101 and other traffic corridors. And, believe it or not, down slope of car washes and their exit lanes.
    It was quite obvious that the dust — known to be full of toxics was from traffic.
    Oh well, I tried.

    Ps By the time I left SB in late 2012, the soot and dust was in every locale — upwind as well as downwind of the traffic. But there was also diesel soot blowing in from marine shipping off shore. Life (?) in a fossil fuel world. If we’re having difficulties sounding the global emissions alarm — I tell you, it is that way on the local level.

    Reply
    • Andy in San Diego

       /  November 6, 2014

      The 710 coming out of Long Beach is an astounding acrid diesel fume blob with all of the containers coming off the ships. Whenever we go to San Pedro we have to use that highway, very nasty.

      Reply
      • Right, Andy in SD. The whole area is covered in black sooty goo. The 710, and all the I-5 corridors etc. are polluted beyond belief.
        It all serves as a reminder that all of these “Free Trade” (NAFTA et al.) agreements we have are propelled by commerce $$$ — all of which is in turn propelled by fossil fuel. Not exactly a climate, or eco, friendly situation.
        Peace

        Reply
  95. Andy in San Diego

     /  November 6, 2014

    Jacareí reservoir, part of the Cantareira supply system which is part of the Sao Paolo supply (48 km of tunnles / canals linking 6 reservoirs) has been pumping dead pool since August.

    It appears that Sabesp has been pumping what they can back up out of the dead pool for use for 3 months. Even with that, they are down another 0.1% today.

    Officially there is enough water to last until March 15, 2015. Not sure how true / false that statement is.

    Reply
  96. Colorado Bob

     /  November 6, 2014

    Italy swamped by flash floods

    After flash floods hit the Italian regions of Tuscany, Liguria and Venice, Rome is now on red alert.

    Link

    This deep loop in the jet stream has been pounding South Eastern France , and Northern Italy for 9 weeks.

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  November 7, 2014

      Those folks must be getting weary from the constant assault of the flooding. seems like each time they think it’s over, another round rolls in.

      Reply
  97. RWood

     /  November 7, 2014

    There might be a useful response from readers here to this:
    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/10/the-us-is-falling-further-beyond-in.html

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  November 7, 2014

      I see it in the daily weather forecast discussions. They hold off on making a call until the last minute due to model concerns. It could be much better if we gave them the equipment that they deserve to have to do the job they need to do.

      Reply
  98. wili

     /  November 7, 2014

    Worth a read: “Why two crucial pages were left out of the latest U.N. climate report”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/11/04/why-two-crucial-pages-were-left-out-of-the-latest-u-n-climate-report/

    Answer (briefly): Because the deleted pages warned of risks of ‘catastrophic…events’ and pointed out the necessity of immediate “rapid and deep emission reductions” if we are to have any chance of avoiding 2 C (which itself if too high)–and that was more than some politically influential people wanted to hear, or to have the public hear, so they got rid of it.

    Now that’s one way to get rid of problems and of the onerous responsibility to…well…be minimally responsible–just obliterate the message!!

    Reply
  99. Colorado Bob

     /  November 7, 2014

    Record sea surface temperatures in October says UK MetOffice data
    Oceans continue to warm with the latest data from the UK Metoffice HADSST3 showing October 2014 had record warm sea surface temperatures. Over 90 per cent of the heat of global warming is being absorbed by the oceans.

    http://takvera.blogspot.com/2014/11/record-sea-surface-temperatures-in.html

    Reply
  100. Colorado Bob

     /  November 7, 2014

    Red alert Rome braced for ‘water bombs’

    With the civil protection department expecting torrential rain to lead to “water bombs”, the authorities decided to close schools and monuments in Rome Thursday. Thursday. Rome Prefect Giuseppe Pecoraro earlier said that the weather forecasts were “unprecedented” and suggested Romans avoid leaving their homes. ………………………………………

    Link

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  November 7, 2014

      I can see that term making a stick in modern lingo for sure. Water bombs.

      Reply
  101. Climate linked to increased violence

    A study by the National Bureau of Economic Research suggests there’s a strong link between climate change and conflict. The working paper reviewed 55 separate studies, concluding that a clear correlation exists between increased violence and changes in weather and temperature. DW spoke to the study’s co-author of the study, Stanford researcher Marshall Burke to find out more.

    http://www.dw.de/climate-linked-to-increased-violence/av-18029881

    Reply
  102. Colorado Bob

     /  November 7, 2014

    Biggest Brazil City Desperate for Water in Drought

    Brazil is approaching the December start of its summer rainy season with its water cupboard nearly bare. More than 10 million people across Sao Paulo state, Brazil’s most populous and the nation’s economic engine, have been forced to cut water use over the past six months. A reservoir used by Itu has fallen to 2 percent capacity and, because its system relies on rain and groundwater rather than rivers, the city is suffering more than others.

    In Itu, desperation is taking hold. Police escort water trucks to keep them from being hijacked by armed men. Residents demanding restoration of tap water have staged violent protests.

    Link

    Reply
  103. Colorado Bob

     /  November 7, 2014

    One year –
    (November 7, 2013), Super Typhoon Haiyan formed and devastated parts of the Philippines with sustained winds of 190 miles per hour, making it the strongest land-falling tropical cyclone ever recorded. It is still considered one of the strongest storms in the past thirty years.

    Unfortunately, another super typhoon formed in the Western Pacific this past weekend that has tied with Super Typhoon Vongfong as the strongest storm of 2014. Super Typhoon Nuri peaked on Sunday (November 2, 2014) with sustained winds near 180 miles per hour (mph) or 290 kilometers per hour (kmh). Nuri has weakened since the weekend, and it is expected to stay east of Japan as it pushes off to the northeast into the northern Pacific Ocean. A trough will pick up Nuri, and the models are expecting the storm to bomb out near the Bering Strait. The storm has the potential to become the strongest storm in that region in recorded history. Nuri’s size and magnitude will likely influence the jet stream’s orientation over the Northern Hemisphere, thus resulting in an extreme weather pattern across North America.

    Yes, weather in the Western Pacific can indirectly affect the overall weather pattern across the Northern Hemisphere.

    http://earthsky.org/earth/extreme-u-s-weather-likely-thanks-to-typhoon-nuri

    Reply
  104. Farmers in three Australian states experience lowest rainfall on record

    http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2014/s4121741.htm

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  November 7, 2014

      Farmers in three Australian states experience lowest rainfall on record

      3 days ago –

      Hottest October on record in Australia as fire danger rises

      Also clocking up record months for maximums were Western Australia and South Australia, helping to drive the country to its hottest October in records going back to 1911.

      Nationally, maximums were 2.76 degrees above normal, eclipsing the 2.63-degree anomaly set in 1988, the bureau said. Victoria had its second hottest October, as did the Northern Territory.
      http://www.smh.com.au/environment/hottest-october-on-record-in-australia-as-fire-danger-rises-20141103-11fzsw.html#ixzz3I0QkfMzq

      Reply
      • Apneaman

         /  November 7, 2014

        No worries! The Fuhrer of OZ, Tony Abbott, used to be a fire fighter, so he has got everything under control. Fear not good white folk down under, Tony won’t let the liberal hoaxers tax your hard earned carbon.

        Reply
  105. Colorado Bob

     /  November 7, 2014

    Something fresh to deny –
    Study: Global warming will increase pollen and allergen exposure

    A runny nose might be the least of one’s worries while standing in three feet of East Coast floodwater, but scientists added allergies to the long list of things that will get worse as a result of global warming.

    Researchers at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst grew a variety of grasses and other flowering plants in a lab setting while manipulating CO2 concentrations. Higher levels of CO2 enabled higher pollen yields.

    “The implications of increasing CO2 for human health are clear,” researcher Jennifer Albertine said in a press release. “Stimulation of grass pollen production by elevated CO2 will increase airborne concentrations and increase exposure and suffering in grass pollen-allergic individuals.”

    Read more: Link

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  November 7, 2014

      Ahh Chooo. Yeah, more fun to look forward to.

      I’m eager for Robert to post again. I want to hear his (US) election prognosis, or is it autopsy? Comedian Stephen Colbert did a good bit last night about James Inofe becoming chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. I guess laughing is better than crying?

      Reply
  106. Colorado Bob

     /  November 7, 2014

    Population boom, droughts contributed to collapse of ancient Assyrian Empire

    Schneider and Adalı argue that factors such as population growth and droughts also contributed to the Assyrian downfall. Recently published paleoclimate data show that conditions in the Near East became more arid during the latter half of the 7th century BC. During this time, the region also experienced significant population growth when people from conquered lands were forcibly resettled there. The authors contend that this substantially reduced the state’s ability to withstand a severe drought such as the one that hit the Near East in 657 BC. They also note that within five years of this drought, the political and economic stability of the Assyrian state had eroded, resulting in a series of civil wars that fatally weakened it.

    “What we are proposing is that these demographic and climatic factors played an indirect but significant role in the demise of the Assyrian Empire,” says Schneider.

    Schneider and Adalı further draw parallels between the collapse of the Assyrian Empire and some of the potential economic and political consequences of climate change in the same area today. They point out, for instance, that the onset of severe drought which, followed by violent unrest in Syria and Iraq during the late 7th century BC, bears a striking resemblance to the severe drought and subsequent contemporary political conflict in Syria and northern Iraq today. On a more global scale, they conclude, modern societies can take note of what happened when short-term economic and political policies were prioritized rather than ones that support long-term economic security and risk mitigation.

    Read more at: Link

    Reply
    • Gerald Spezio

       /  November 7, 2014

      CB, Contemporary Iraq, at least what is left of it, is the heir of the ancient Assyrian people.
      Assyrian people are Semitic people by definition.
      Therefore, the vicious US & British complete destruction of Iraq was very anti-Semitic, no es verdad?

      from Wiki; Assyria (𒀸𒋗𒁺 𐎹 Aššūrāyu) was a major Mesopotamian East Semitic kingdom, and often empire, of the Ancient Near East, existing as an independent state for a period of approximately nineteen centuries from c. 2500 BC to 605 BC, spanning the Early Bronze Age through to the late Iron Age.

      Reply
  107. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 7, 2014

    Roberto, where is you at?
    In order to help the economy as well as deliver great info, you must consider charging tuition for your labors.
    In a culture where everything is for sale you simply must collect for your toils.
    Learning costs money – no money; no learning.
    Remember Henry Paulson’s dictum; “We want people to be able to get the credit that they NEED!”
    We could borrow to pay you in order to learn about the droughts, floods, & pestilences leading to our upcoming ugly deaths.

    A poignant blurb from today’s news;
    CREDIT GAINS: In August, U.S. consumers boosted borrowing by $13.5 billion, led by rising auto loans and student loans.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ahead-bell-us-consumer-borrowing-114626591.html

    Reply
  108. Colorado Bob

     /  November 7, 2014

    Italy and Poland pounded by storms ( BBC Carrara got 180 mm in three hours ).

    Link

    Reply
  109. Mark from New England

     /  November 7, 2014

    Link to some ‘funny’ election and environmental cartoons. The Rick Scott / Florida one is especially poignant:

    http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025780665

    Reply
  110. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 7, 2014

    Two proven crooked lawyers & two parties to choose from.
    Both lawyers looking very much like Dracula, especially Scott.
    More than two & one half million Florida human beings voted for proven thief/scumbag Rick Scott.
    Almost the same number voted for Charlie-the-crook-Crist.
    Democracy – love you.

    Reply
  111. Ground water depletion driving global conflicts – NASA scientist

    http://www.trust.org/item/20141107135646-dgu3e/?source=fiHeadlineStory

    Reply
  112. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2014

    Stephen Colbert Calls Out “I’m Not a Scientist” Climate-Change Deniers

    Link

    Reply
  113. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2014

    I try not to post op-eds on these threads , ( Opinions are like grains of sand on the beach, everyone has one, they are all shaped differently , but in the end they are just sand. )

    I try to stick mostly to observed events and studies, and the comments from people doing those studies. But this op-ed is one from David Horsey , a Pulitzer Prize winning cartoonist . Who is just as good at writing as he is at drawing editorial cartoons.


    Voters put climate change policy in the hands of climate change denier

    By David Horsey

    People who voted for the GOP in the congressional elections this week may be surprised to learn they chose a militant climate change denier to oversee federal efforts to deal with climate change. The widespread expectation is that, when Republicans take charge of the Senate in January, Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe, a vehement foe of those who believe human exploitation of fossil fuels is contributing to a sharp rise in global temperatures, will be chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee.

    Link

    Reply
    • Gerald Spezio

       /  November 8, 2014

      CB, so you clearly & obviously take a position ( have an opinion) about the glaring differences between Inhofe’s denial & Horsey’s acceptance of human caused climate change.
      The consequences of theses conflicting claims (opinions) are life & death differences.
      Innocent people are dying from the consequences of Guy McPherson’s flying & my driving & throwing light switches.
      The differences are NOT just sand.

      Reply
  114. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2014

    Last night John Fogerty preformed ” Fortunate Son ” at the White House , at an event for vets .

    God bless John Fogerty …………..

    Reply
  115. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2014

    John’s masterpiece :

    God bless John Fogerty …………..

    Reply
  116. Nov 7, 2014 – Environmental Research Web

    Analysing heat waves – new index allows predicting their magnitude

    JRC scientists have developed a new index to measure the magnitude of heat waves, in cooperation with colleagues from five research organisations. According to the index projections, under the worst climate scenario of temperature rise nearing 4.8°C, extreme heat waves will become the norm by the end of the century. Heat waves like the one that hit Russia in summer 2010, the strongest on record in recent decades, will occur as often as every two years in southern Europe, North and South America, Africa and Indonesia.

    The Heat Wave Magnitude Index is the first to allow comparing heat waves over space and time. It takes into account both the duration and intensity of heat waves and can serve as a benchmark for evaluating the impacts of future climate change.

    http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/yournews/59238

    Reply
  117. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 8, 2014

    Wet bulb temp, simple & basic fact, opinion, & death from RS in Aug. 2013;

    High heat and humidity of this kind is deadly to humans because as temperatures approach 35 degree C wet bulb readings, it is nearly impossible for the human body to carry away the excess heat it generates through evaporation. Never has a wet bulb temperature of 35 degrees C been recorded by humans. However, climate scientists such as James Hansen have asserted that it’s just a matter of time under the current regime of human-caused warming before we hit that ominous mark.

    Reply
  118. wili

     /  November 8, 2014

    It looks like the Northern “Mangled Jet Stream” is about to bring very cold temps into much of central North America, even as it guides (and is shaped by?) a probably-record-breaking cyclone toward the Bering Strait.

    Reply
    • Yes, indeed.
      There are also some large very warm air masses over East Siberian Sea in the Arctic, and the area to the NE of Hudson’s Bay.
      Nov. 9, 2014 ClimateReanalyzer:

      Reply
    • Andy in San Diego

       /  November 8, 2014

      “…“Mangled Jet Stream” is about to bring very cold temps into much of central North America…”

      Queue the usual suspects using their local weather as a proxy for the entire planet and pontificating their denial sarcasm in 3 …. 2 …. 1 …..

      Reply
  119. Andy in San Diego

     /  November 8, 2014

    Itu Brazil, the water system has been bare, nothing in peoples taps for over a month.

    “In Itu, desperation is taking hold. Police escort water trucks to keep them from being hijacked by armed men. Residents demanding restoration of tap water have staged violent protests. ”

    http://beforeitsnews.com/environment/2014/11/biggest-brazil-metro-area-desperate-for-water-if-deforestation-in-the-amazon-continues-sao-paulo-will-probably-dry-up-2513394.html

    Reply
  120. Robert,

    As a writer, author, and blogger, I know how difficult it is to balance projects. I also know what it is like to want to stay on a project when everything is “clicking” and I am sailing along and cranking out the chapters. That said, it has been a while since you posted and I, for one, am keen to see what you will delve into next. I value your work.

    Scott

    Reply
  121. – San Diego, CA

    Climate conflict is near, admiral warns

    America’s security is at risk, unless we act now to address climate change and resource conflicts with the developing world, said Retired Navy Rear Adm. Len Hering, the executive director of the California Center for Sustainable Energy.

    Hering will discuss those topics Wednesday morning in a presentation entitled “National Security & Climate Change,” sponsored by the City of Coronado.

    Hering, a 33-year Navy veteran, was one of the Navy’s top experts in base operations and facility support, and pioneered Navy upgrades to renewable energy, waste reduction and water conservation. He holds a Master’s Degree in international relations and strategic studies and degrees in meteorology and oceanography.

    “If sea level rises the projected minimum of three and a half to four feet, a type two storm in the Philippines will potentially create 12 million refugees overnight,” he said. “Where do they go?”

    http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/nov/08/environment-len-hering-climate-change/

    Reply
  122. Andy in San Diego

     /  November 9, 2014

    You can really see that big storm blob rolling through the Canadian arctic as an air temp anomaly on climate reanalyzer.

    Reply
    • Andy in San Diego

       /  November 9, 2014

      Actually… not Canadian arctic, but rather just the whole bloody arctic.

      Reply
  123. Colorado Bob

     /  November 10, 2014

    Tackling a Drought in Iran

    ISFAHAN, Iran — At its peak under the Safavid Dynasty (1502-1722), the Iranian city of Isfahan was seen as so glorious that it was nicknamed “half the world” for its boulevards, palaces, covered bridges and mosques, many of which remain to this day. The city, now home to nearly two million people and the country’s third-largest, was a cultural crossroads that attracted people from all over the world.

    The major artery that ran through the city was the Zayanderud River, a thoroughfare that nourished some of the earliest civilizations in recorded history and sustained the people of Isfahan down through modern times. But for two years the river has been bone dry. It’s not that its banks have receded; they simply aren’t there anymore. In their place is a desertified riverbed.

    The drying up of the Zayanderud is the most visible sign of a water crisis that poses a severe threat to the existence of this city. Groundwater levels have fallen, wells have dried up and ecosystems have been destroyed.

    Link

    Reply
  124. Colorado Bob

     /  November 10, 2014

    Scientists, speak up on climate change

    Science has spoken, Ban said. But have scientists? It seems so: 97 percent of climate scientists say climate change is real, caused by humans, and threatening global catastrophe. Hundreds of scientific societies, academies, agencies, and NGOs have weighed in without ambiguity. Yet reliable polls show that fewer than half of Americans know of this overwhelming scientific consensus. The fossil fuel industry, and the politicians who do its bidding, have waged a remarkably successful disinformation campaign, making it seem that scientists are divided on the question, when they are anything but.

    What would it take for the public to get clear both on the unanimity of climate scientists, and on the urgency of what they see coming? An answer from the recent past suggests itself: scientists, instead of merely providing activists and journalists with irrefutable climate data, must leave their cloistered laboratories to become activists themselves. Scientists must take to the streets and lead, even if that means taking hits in the contentious public square.

    Link

    Reply
  125. Colorado Bob

     /  November 10, 2014

    Climate change expected to expand majority of ocean dead zones

    A full 94 percent of the dead zones in the world’s oceans lie in regions expected to warm at least 2 degrees Celsius by the century’s end according to a new report from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center published Nov. 10 in Global Change Biology. The paper states that warmer waters—mixed with other climate change factors—make for a dangerous cocktail that can expand dead zones.

    Dead zones form in waters where oxygen plummets to levels too low for fish, crabs or other animals to survive. In deeper waters, dead zones may last for months, as with the annual summer dead zone in the Chesapeake Bay. Temporary dead zones may occur in shallow waters at night. The largest dead zones in the Gulf of Mexico and Baltic Sea can cover more than 20,000 square miles of the sea floor. The number of dead zones across the world is growing exponentially, doubling each decade since the 1960s.

    “They’re having a big impact on life in the coastal zone worldwide,” said Keryn Gedan, a co-author and marine ecologist at the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center and the University of Maryland. “A lot of people live on the coast, and they’re experiencing more fish kills and more harmful algal blooms. These are effects of dead zones that have an impact on our lives.”

    Link

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  November 10, 2014
      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  November 10, 2014

        Piles of mussels (“Mytilus edulis”) washed onto a beach after a dead zone event in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island. Besides providing food and habitat for other creatures, mussels can also filter water. When mussels die, the bay loses its ability to clear water of phytoplankton, increasing the risk of future dead zones. (Credit: Andrew Altieri/Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute)

        Reply
  126. Colorado Bob

     /  November 10, 2014

    I have a gut feeling that Mother Nature is about to cast her vote, on the direction of where we go from here.

    Canfield ocean

    The Canfield Ocean model refers to the Ocean composition theorized by geologist Donald Canfield. In a seminal paper in Nature in 1998, Canfield argued that the Ocean had become partially anoxic and sulfidic, causing mass extinction.[1][2]

    Peter Ward studies the effects of ocean hypoxia(anoxic) and sulfidic oceans and climate change. He found warming of the ocean caused by a rise of carbon dioxide levels to about 1000 parts per million as a trigger for mass extinction.[3]

    Link

    Reply
    • Thanks for the good news, CB.
      I think so too, “Mother Nature is about to cast her vote…”
      We pushed her at our peril.
      She seeks only balance.
      With our gluttony, we have done the opposite.
      Now, all will pay…

      Reply
    • RWood

       /  November 10, 2014

      CB:
      With no offense meant to any, I’d say that you are quite likely RS’s right-hand man, with dt his third eye or v.v., but and however, would you care to offer (as you have done constantly) what else weighs into your current gut feeling?
      Or, I should just start reading at the beginning of RS blog?
      I believe RS said he’d address the Canfield Ocean in the future some time ago, so I don’t think there are his summaries and relationships in the previous blog history. Please enlighten me (and I’ve read some of Peter Ward) as to the current intuition.
      Keep on keepin’ on!

      Reply
  127. Colorado Bob

     /  November 10, 2014

    When the Party’s Over: Permian Mass Extinction

    Posted on February 6, 2013

    “The implication of our study is that elevated CO2 is sufficient to lead to inhospitable conditions for marine life and excessively high temperatures over land would contribute to the demise of terrestrial life.”

    The largest mass extinction on earth occurred approximately 251million years ago at the end of the Permian geologic era. Almost 95% of all ocean species and 70% of land species died, and research has shown that what probably happened to cause this extinction was carbon dioxide levels.

    As the saying goes; those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it, so let’s see what happened to the planet 251 million years ago and work out how we humans can avoid doing it to ourselves at high speed.

    Link

    Reply
    • wili

       /  November 10, 2014

      ““The implication of our study is that elevated CO2 is sufficient to lead to inhospitable conditions for marine life and excessively high temperatures over land would contribute to the demise of terrestrial life.”

      A prognosis for end Permian; a prediction for our not-too-distant future.

      Reply
  128. Colorado Bob

     /  November 10, 2014


    Feds to Decide on Maine Shrimp Season Cancellation

    A report by the committee says the “depleted condition of the resource and poor prospects for the near future” warrant another closure. The report blames rising ocean temperature for the decline. Regulators say the fishery’s estimated population fell by a factor of 14 from 2011 to 2013.

    Link

    A classic definition of the word “crash”. And a echo of the crash of the lobster fishery in Long Island Sound.

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  November 10, 2014

      As the shrimp go, so will the lobster. Not all at once, but it will be an inexorable decline that some biologists say has already begun.
      I opened the silverware drawer last night and noticed the tools for eating lobster. It struck me that I stand a chance of outliving the usefulness of those utensils. For a New Englander, that is a stunning revelation. Acidification, partnered with unprecedented warming, is rapidly changing our precious ocean. It makes me sick to think of it.

      Reply
  129. Now here’s an interesting ‘olivine’ tack that’s new to me — but a major and immediate cut in fossil fuel emissions still gas to be.

    NYT 11/09/14
    Climate Tools Seek to Bend Nature’s Path

    UTRECHT, the Netherlands — The solution to global warming, Olaf Schuiling says, lies beneath our feet.

    For Dr. Schuiling, a retired geochemist, climate salvation would come in the form of olivine, a green-tinted mineral found in abundance around the world. When exposed to the elements, it slowly takes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

    Olivine has been doing this naturally for billions of years, but Dr. Schuiling wants to speed up the process by spreading it on fields and beaches and using it for dikes, pathways, even sandboxes. Sprinkle enough of the crushed rock around, he says, and it will eventually remove enough CO2 to slow the rise in global temperatures.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/10/science/earth/climate-tools-seek-to-bend-natures-path.html?_r=0

    Reply
    • It seems, also that harvesting, processing, and applying olivine has to very carbon intensive.

      Reply
      • wili

         /  November 11, 2014

        Yes, I expect that if someone carefully did the math on this, after factoring in energy used, this scheme would put barely a dent, if that, in the nearly 40 billion tons of CO2 being emitted every year now.

        Reply
      • RWood

         /  November 11, 2014

        I’ve got it in my head that there was a comment somewhere that putting compost/mixing compost onto sered ground would (certainly with watering) help that patch to improve, and to absorb CO2. Comment?
        The idea is that infertile soil can be improved, meaning it can use/absorb CO2.

        Reply
      • wili

         /  November 11, 2014

        RWood. I’m sure many of these techniques can do _something_ to sequester carbon, and we certainly now need to be exploring such strategies, _unless_ they lull us into an idea that we don’t have to reduce our emissions radically and immediately, too.

        Keep in mind that sequestering carbon in soils depends on those soils staying soils. As GW really gets going, soils will be challenged/destroyed more and more by ever more biblical deluges alternating with ever more Saharan droughts. It won’t help much if we’ve managed to temporarily take a bit of carbon out of the atmosphere if Climate Chaos turns around and dries up or washes away all or most of that soil, returning all or most of the carbon back to the atmosphere in the process.

        Another point is that, as feedbacks kick in, such efforts (and again, I’m not saying we shouldn’t attempt them) will feel more and more like trying to sweep the incoming tide back into the sea. Terrestrial permafrost alone has twice the total carbon currently in the atmosphere, and more than all the carbon in all of life that exists on earth.

        Reply
  130. RWood

     /  November 11, 2014

    Thank you, Mikkel, and I’ll look over these entrails of our further adventures in interesting times. I was trying to get an indication (that may not be expressible) of what stirred his gut feeling into verbal expression of the omen just now.

    Reply
  131. Colorado Bob

     /  November 11, 2014

    Mexico City faces growing water crisis

    PBS News Hour

    They lose 50% of their entire system every 24 hours , because of leaks.

    http://www.pbs.org/newshour/videos/#120165

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  November 11, 2014

      One 1,000 liters a second. 60% pumped from the ground. How long before this bubble pops ?

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  November 11, 2014

        Over 1,000 liters a second leaks . 60% of that pumped from the ground. How long before this bubble pops ? And where are those over 20 million people going to go when it does pop ?

        Reply
      • wili

         /  November 11, 2014

        More and more cities and regions seem to be about to or in the process of hitting this water-shortage wall. Here something on how they are trying to cope in Sao Paulo: http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2359673&CategoryId=14090

        Reply
      • Apneaman

         /  November 11, 2014

        Kind of like fracking. We will see the Red Queen Syndrome for every resource before it’s over or for as long as there is oil to unlock all the other resources.

        Reply
  132. Colorado Bob

     /  November 11, 2014

    Jimi Hendrix- Hear My Train A Comin- Band of Gypsys

    Pay no attention to the white fool on screen , the sound is all jimi.

    Reply
  133. Colorado Bob

     /  November 11, 2014

    Harry Nilsson – Coconut (1971)

    Reply
    • Apneaman

       /  November 11, 2014

      So what’s different? Just the rhetoric. In the end, the owners of the country get their way and the sheep, on the left & right, keep shopping for new toys to plug in the wall and plan trips to Disney land.

      Reply
      • Gerald Spezio

         /  November 12, 2014

        Apneaman, your contempt & disgust of “the sacred system” warms my heart.
        Double talk & deception from the top rule our lives, & any pilgrim who sees it can’t be all bad.
        Here is establishment historian Alison Weir courageously exposing the greatest deception & deceit of the 20th century, including the leading role of supreme propagandist Supreme Court Justice, Louis Brandeis, Esquire.

        Reply
    • Gerald Spezio

       /  November 12, 2014

      “Senator Mitch McConnell has said he will fight regulations that would limit carbon emissions.”
      Mitch Baby is a paid lawyerfish on retainer to his paying clients.
      His “professional ethics” require him to represent his paying Kentucky coal clients ZEALOUSLY.”
      They paid Mitch handsomely, & they call the tunes.
      It is perfectly & completely legal.
      Way it posta be in Supernation where everything is for sale.
      Get your own lawyer, & pay her plenty.
      Get a lawyer who went to law school with the judge.
      You doan wanna go to jail do you?

      Reply
  134. Tom

     /  November 11, 2014

    http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-underwater-rovers-robots-antarctica-eddies-ice-sheet-melting-climate-change-20141110-story.html

    Underwater ‘storms’ may hold key to melting Antarctic ice

    Scientists using robotic ocean gliders to wander frigid Antarctic waters say they may have discovered a mechanism behind the melting of polar ice shelves – miniature submarine “storms” that are lobbing packets of warmer water toward the continent..

    The findings, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, shed light on the complicated currents that could potentially be contributing to the loss of West Antarctic ice.

    my other comment way up the thread is still in moderation

    Reply
  135. Photo below is from a piece about photographer polar bears Camille Seaman from wired. But this stunning cloud and landscape shot tells a lot about closeness of the atmosphere.

    ‘When Camille Seaman started photographing icebergs and other arctic wonders, she wasn’t thinking about climate change. She simply found the frozen landscape and white vistas visually stunning.

    Still, you can’t help but associate her images with the ongoing conversation about climate change. Seaman, 45, says she too sees her work as directly connected and aptly titled her new book of pictures from the two poles Melting Away.’

    – When There Is Sunshine. Antarctic Peninsula, February 2010. Antarctica is big, but the sky is bigger. The clouds that cover Antarctica can seem enormous, and when the clouds are lit by the sun, magic can happen. I tend to spend as much time as I can out on deck, always looking, always ready. On this evening my diligence was rewarded. Camille Seaman

    Reply
  136. Absolutely fascinating what the Bering Sea storm and resulting air mass displacement (and current high pressure system) is doing to the formation of sea ice in the western arctic. The sea ice extent graph line has gone from nearly vertical to nearly horizontal over the past few days, taking it from nearly average for the last decade toward nearly average for the current decade. This is a massive, massive change in this system over such a short time and speaks to other influences (including, perhaps, the relatively warm surface water that lingers in the western arctic) that are acting in association with the storm.

    http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

    Reply
    • wili

       /  November 12, 2014

      Thanks for that, PID. More on Nuri’s amazing and wide ranging effects here:
      @EricHolthaus: Amazing paragraph for weather nerds, via @NWSWPC:
      “Effects of the deep Bering Sea cyclone have totally displaced the low-level thermal profiles in this region of the Western Hemisphere”

      http://t.co/mz8OIXd3aQ

      Reply
  137. Jay M

     /  November 12, 2014

    unfortunately the energetic consequences of higher CO2 loads in the troposphere combined with nitrification via motorization and cascade of reactions leading to among other things loading the troposphere with ozone to plant toxic levels cause us to migrate to this site for information

    Reply
  138. THE ASSOCIATED PRESS 11/11/14
    Alaska warms up as Lower 48 shivers

    ANCHORAGE — While parts of the country were shivering Monday, Alaska’s mainland was blanketed with unseasonably warm temperatures.
    Meteorologist Shaun Baines, with the National Weather Service office in Anchorage, said the switch is a result of the strength of Typhoon Nuri, which influenced the hemispheric flow. The storm built up a high-pressure ridge, with Alaska on the west side of it getting a southerly flow from the tropics. On the east side of the ridge, a northerly flow is pushing cold air to the Lower 48 from Canada.
    As a result, Anchorage on Monday morning had a high of 46 degrees, compared with the norm of 29.
    It was 30 degrees in Fairbanks, where the normal is 13 degrees.
    And Barrow was balmy at 19 degrees, well above the norm of 8 degrees.

    Reply
  139. Mark from New England

     /  November 12, 2014

    What do all of you make of this?

    “BREAKING: The US and China Just Announced a Huge Deal on Climate—and It’s a Game Changer” –

    http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/11/obama-just-announced-historic-climate-deal-china

    Too little too late, or is really cause for celebration?

    Reply
    • Nancy

       /  November 12, 2014

      I am celebrating in my own little house this morning because it’s a small first step. It’s like AA. You have to start with an admission of your addiction. The US and China are the top two emitters, and now they’ve admitted they have a problem that needs to be addressed.

      I’m afraid it means more nuclear power around the world and that’s another huge issue. The President needs all the support he can get, especially because we know Inhofe and his pals will do everything in their power to keep America on the fossil-fuel gravy train. But I am very proud of our President. He is ready to do battle with the Republicans over climate change.

      Reply
    • Apneaman

       /  November 13, 2014
      Reply
  140. Colorado Bob

     /  November 12, 2014

    Record-breaking ocean temperatures wreak havoc
    THE world’s oceans are the hottest they’ve ever been in the modern record. An analysis shared exclusively with New Scientist suggests that the global slowdown in the rise of air temperatures is probably over, and we are entering another period of rapid warming.

    Since the last big El Niño event in 1998, when ocean temperatures last peaked, they have remained relatively stable. Such periods are not unexpected, but research is increasingly indicating that the recent slowdown in global surface air temperature rise is down to heat being absorbed by the world’s deep oceans, leaving the surface, and therefore also the air, cool.

    But when Axel Timmermann of the University of Hawaii in Honolulu analysed the most recent publicly available monthly data from the UK Met Office, he found that the ocean surfaces are now the hottest they have been since records began. In July this year, ocean surfaces were 0.55 °C above the average since 1890, just beating the previous record of 0.51 °C in 1998. In the North Pacific, the temperatures were about 0.8 °C above average, which is 0.25 °C warmer than the 1998 peak.

    http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22429954.000-recordbreaking-ocean-temperatures-wreak-havoc.html#.VGNppMmCe2c

    Reply
  141. Colorado Bob

     /  November 12, 2014

    Robotic underwater gliders observe melting Antarctic ice sheets

    PASADENA, Calif., Nov. 11 (UPI) — Three robotic underwater gliders deployed in the Southern Ocean are helping scientists in the United States and United Kingdom better understand Antarctica’s shrinking ice sheets.

    It’s clear that warmer ocean waters near the coast play a role in melting Antartica’s ice, but researchers wanted to get a better read on how that water gets there, and why. The gliders offered scientists a chance to find out, by tracking warm Southern Ocean waters on their elusive journey to the Antarctic coast.

    Read more: http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2014/11/11/Robotic-underwater-gliders-observe-melting-Antarctic-ice-sheets/4321415720821/#ixzz3Irli5tDU

    Reply
  142. Colorado Bob

     /  November 12, 2014

    Why glaciers that flow into the ocean are extremely sensitive to climate

    The observations also agree with their computer simulations, where calving events are modelled as the fracture of millions of individual ice blocks. Cracks will suddenly propagate through the ice blocks, triggering calving events whose size and inter-event time distributions share a striking resemblance to those predicted by a classic theory of self-organised criticality, originally developed as a model of a growing sandpile [the Abelian sandpile model].

    “This means that calving is extremely and unavoidably sensitive to its environment: a slight climate change can mean the difference between very little calving and the complete disintegration of entire ice shelves,” says Dorothée Vallot at Uppsala University, Department of Geoscience.

    This new view of iceberg calving explains the observed, sudden collapse of ice shelves and sudden retreat of tidewater glaciers as the polar regions slowly warm.

    Reply
  143. C’mon man, throw us a bone. I think the odd round up of a few climate stories for us to discuss would be appreciated. God I miss Leanan’s drumbeats from TOD. Hope all is well Robert, don’t let Inhofe get you down.

    Reply
  144. Jay M

     /  November 13, 2014

    another weak moisture impulse falling upon California, rain expected above Golden Gate but may spread further
    even absent El Nino it seems like a rapid ocean to troposphere temperature rise would animate the water in the atmospheric column
    Is pelagic overfishing laundered trophic adventurism as decomplexification of vertibrate species goes foreward unabaited

    Reply
  145. Phil

     /  November 13, 2014

    Looks like a heat wave is going to hit just in time for the G20 meeting in Brisbane this weekend. Temperatures in the range of 35 to 37 degrees are possible in Brisbane with western areas of Brisbane closer to or slightly above 40 degrees C. Only around 10 to 12 degrees above the average for this time of year.

    Perhaps nature way of busting in on the meeting and giving Abbott a poke in the eye.

    Reply
    • Apneaman

       /  November 13, 2014

      If were lucky the high temperature combined with the friction of 20 massive egos clashing will result in a once in a millennium spontaneous combustion event.

      Reply
    • Phil

       /  November 15, 2014

      Obama sort of stole the show today at G20 via a speech he gave at University of Queensland which included strong mention of dangers posed by Climate Change – a message that the Federal Government here had tried to silence by dropping climate change from the agenda. He also exorted young people to put pressure on political parties to address this as it affects their future greatly. He seemed to capture the audience completely if their reaction was any indication.

      Most media commentary has focused on this today. Will be interesting if he or any others manage to keep it in the spotlight so to speak tomorrow or Abbott and Co get it shoved into the background.

      Heat wave condtions expected to continue tomorrow with temperatures possibly near 39 to 40 degrees C in Brisbane.

      Reply
      • Phil

         /  November 16, 2014

        A final wrap up of G20. Climate change was included in the final communique as was a recommendation to remove inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. Apparently this was resisted by Australia, Canada and Saudia Arabia but this resistance was overcome by USA and Europeans. Probably similar for climate change inclusion as well.

        I have seen reports that Abbott got up and said how important and good fossil fuels are for the economy but Obama got up and strongly opposed this view and carried the support of especially the Europeans about threat of climate change and fossil fuel subsidies.

        Of course, whether any practical measures emerge remains to be seen. However, in terms of PR and presenting a message to the broader public, it was a good outcome – much better than was wanted I suspect by particularly Australia and Canada.

        Reply
  146. Colorado Bob

     /  November 13, 2014

    Italy: deadly floods leave four dead

    Some towns are reported to have had more than 20 centimetres ( 7 7/8″ ) of rain in just 12 hours.
    http://www.euronews.com/2014/11/12/italy-deadly-floods-leave-four-dead/

    Reply
  147. As the jet stream goes off on its wild ride — the cold air mass descending down through Canada and into and through the mid western USA, etc. is about equal in size to the now huge hot air mass in the Arctic. Three strong atmospheric forces on a roll.
    Again, See ClimateReanalyzer for the air temp. anomalies:

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  November 13, 2014

      Striking image. I’ve saved this one for a future presentation.

      Reply
  148. MIT NEWS 11-10-14
    The missing piece of the climate puzzle

    Researchers show that a canonical view of global warming tells only half the story.

    In classrooms and everyday conversation, explanations of global warming hinge on the greenhouse gas effect. In short, climate depends on the balance between two different kinds of radiation: The Earth absorbs incoming visible light from the sun, called “shortwave radiation,” and emits infrared light, or “longwave radiation,” into space.

    Upsetting that energy balance are rising levels of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), that increasingly absorb some of the outgoing longwave radiation and trap it in the atmosphere. Energy accumulates in the climate system, and warming occurs. But in a paper out this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, MIT researchers show that this canonical view of global warming is only half the story.

    In computer modeling of Earth’s climate under elevating CO2 concentrations, the greenhouse gas effect does indeed lead to global warming. Yet something puzzling happens: While one would expect the longwave radiation that escapes into space to decline with increasing CO2, the amount actually begins to rise. At the same time, the atmosphere absorbs more and more incoming solar radiation; it’s this enhanced shortwave absorption that ultimately sustains global warming.

    http://newsoffice.mit.edu/2014/global-warming-increased-solar-radiation-1110

    Reply
  149. Global warming blamed for more rain in Japan

    Researchers learned that the maximum hourly rainfall intensified by about 13 percent in the past 35 years.

    – See more at: http://newsonjapan.com/html/newsdesk/article/110226.php#sthash.J72DvDqI.dpuf

    Reply
  150. joni

     /  November 13, 2014

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/11/us-china-climate-deal-stone-age-112837.html?ml=m_pm

    “The announcement that the United States and China will aim to cooperate on greenhouse-gas reductions is historic for the reasons everyone is saying it’s historic: The two largest carbon emitters are admitting they have a problem and committing to do something about it. President Obama and Xi Jinping have sent an important signal to the rest of the world that inaction is unacceptable, that global warming is a global enemy. They’ve improved the previously dim prospects for a global climate deal next year in Paris, ending the Alphonse-and-Gaston charade where developing countries and developed countries both insist they’re waiting for the other half of the world to do its part. It’s fair to say that without agreements like this one, the climate progress necessary to avoid a climate catastrophe would be impossible.

    But the agreement itself is not really climate progress. It’s purely voluntary; the U.S. Senate would never ratify a binding treaty. It’s not overly ambitious; it sets goals for the U.S. (a 26-28% reduction of 2005 emissions levels by 2025) and China (a transition to 20% non-fossil energy by 2030) they might well have achieved anyway. The U.S. goal is paltry compared to that of the European Union, which includes a 40% reduction from 1990 emissions levels by 2030. China isn’t even committing to start reducing emissions for the next sixteen years. And there’s no apparent mechanism to translate any of these modest goals into a transition away from the coal-fired electricity and oil-based transportation that’s broiling the planet.”

    This so called “agreement” is a textbook example of doing too little, too late.

    Reply
  151. Colorado Bob

     /  November 13, 2014

    European space probe safely anchored on comet’s surface

    Pictures from the surface of the comet

    Reply
  152. Colorado Bob

     /  November 13, 2014

    Tidal Flooding and Sea Level Rise: The Growing Impacts of Global Warming

    Union of Concerned Scientists

    Reply
  153. I suspect he got an “It’s either me or the blog” ultimatum.

    Reply
  154. Colorado Bob

     /  November 13, 2014

    Ocean primed for more El Nino

    The ocean is warming steadily and setting up the conditions for stronger El Niño weather events, a new study has shown.

    A team of US, Australian, and Canadian researchers sampled corals from a remote island in Kiribati to build a 60-year record of ocean surface temperature and salinity.

    “The trend is unmistakeable, the ocean’s primed for more El Niño events,” says lead-author Dr Jessica Carilli, now based at the University of Massachusetts, Boston.

    Team member Dr Helen McGregor from the Research School of Earth Sciences at The Australian National University said the change in El Niño patterns could have a major impact on Australia’s weather.

    Read more at: Link

    Reply
  155. Colorado Bob

     /  November 13, 2014

    Global Warming to Cause ‘Explosive Thunderstorms’ With 50% Increase in Lightning

    Researchers looked to see if precipitation and cloud buoyancy is a predictor of lightning by observing strikes over 2011 to see if there was a correlation. Precipitation serves as a measure of how convective the atmosphere is and convection generates lightning.

    The speeds of convective clouds – Cape – are worked out by balloon-borne instruments that are released around the US twice every day. By combining these measurements with data on precipitation and lightning strikes, researchers were able to conclude that 77% of the variations in strikes can be predicted from these two factors.

    “We were blown away by how incredibly well that worked to predict lightning strikes,” Romps said.

    On average, climate models suggest a 11% increase in Cape with ever degree Celsius rise in global average temperature. It also assumes CO2 emissions rise in line with current levels. This means that by 2100, there will be a 50% increase in lightning strikes if the planet warms by 4C as is expected.

    An increase in lightning strikes will result in more human injuries – hundreds of people are killed by strikes every year. It will also increase wildfires and generate more nitrogen oxides, which have a huge impact on the atmosphere.

    Link

    Reply
  156. For some audio/bedtime listening, this may be interest:
    (I think Robert is about due to be on Ecoshock again.)
    STOLEN FUTURE, BROKEN PRESENT

    SUMMARY: David Collings, book our “Stolen Future and Broken Present”. From Sweden, forest expert Martin Persson says tropical deforestation is still stripping the planet – for us, for consumers in rich countries. Finnish intellectual Olli Tammilehto asks can we can survive a system which rewards the rich with a license to commit ecocide?

    The Jet Stream gets blown off course again – this time by Nuri, the most powerful storm on the planet. Arctic air spills down into central and eastern North America, in mid-November, while another awful storm track shapes up for Britain and northern Europe. We live through the time of climate disruption, but what does it mean?

    http://www.ecoshock.info/2014/11/stolen-future-broken-present.html

    Reply
  157. Floating above the rising tides debate: Keren Bolter

    Reply
  158. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 14, 2014

    What one of my former pals is doing.
    A retired city planner from Gainesville, FL, who seriously claims to be an authority about auto pollution & has published about the seriousness of auto pollution, flies to Switzerland with his lady for skiing holidays, Hawaii for scuba holidays, & Cozumel for delicious fish tacos.
    It is too cold in Boulder when you aren’t skiing.
    He always recycles his wine bottles & avoids driving, except to the airports.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  November 14, 2014

      Nothing in the history of the world has ever done this , and burnt more carbon to do it . I was at 940 Pearl Street in 1970.

      God knows the amount of carbon I have burnt in 44 years, Turning this train is going to need :

      We’re going to need a war chest.

      Reply
  159. Colorado Bob

     /  November 14, 2014

    We’re going to need a war chest.

    Reply
  160. Jay M

     /  November 14, 2014

    The kerosene cut must be burned, and jet travel has turned out to be a steady user of jet fuel.
    Rained during the night here, I think about 1/3″ here in San Francisco. At about 1/2 of average precipitation at this point to date–we should get a inch or two less than 2′ of precipitation annually. The area goes into a dry season starting about April usually. Slow start to the rain season so far. No real drenching rain. Guess I shouldn’t ask though.

    Reply
  161. NASA: Alaska Shows No Signs of Rising Arctic Methane

    Despite large temperature increases in Alaska in recent decades, a new analysis of NASA airborne data finds that methane is not being released from Alaskan soils into the atmosphere at unusually high rates, as recent modeling and experimental studies have suggested. The new result shows that the changes in this part of the Arctic have not yet had enough impact to affect the global methane budget.

    http://mobile.nasa.gov/jpl/carve/nasa-alaska-shows-no-signs-of-rising-arctic-methane/

    Reply
  162. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 14, 2014

    Rachel Y.-W. Chang
    Assistant Professor
    Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science
    Dalhousie University
    6310 Coburg Road
    PO Box 15000
    Halifax, Nova Scotia, B3H 4R2
    Canada
    Telephone: 1-902-494-2832
    Email: rachel.chang [at] dal.ca
    Our research is motivated by atmospheric processes that take place in marine and polar environments. One aspect is in studying the sources, transport and loss processes of aerosol in the atmosphere in these regions. Another aspect is in understanding how carbon cycles in permafrost regions. We focus on making ambient measurements but our work is complemented by modelling and laboratory experiments.

    Reply
  163. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 14, 2014

    Framing & peeyar; yuppie doubletalk so twisted that even trying to untwist it – just twists it more.

    Reply
  164. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 14, 2014

    Is James Hansen being tortured by Gavin Schmidt in Guantanamo?
    Should we hire some beltway lawyers in fancy suits & argue nature’s trust law?

    Reply
  165. Kevin Jones

     /  November 14, 2014

    NASA.s GISS reporting October at +.74C (near record) This makes 2014 tied with 2010 as warmest yet. (+.66C) with two months to go. (actually +.659 for Jan.-Oct. ’14)

    Reply
  166. Kevin Jones

     /  November 14, 2014

    Appears record high temp for October belongs to 2005 at .76C

    Reply
  167. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 14, 2014

    Yeah, it ain’t caused from Alaskan soils at unusually high rates either, Man.
    You could look it up at NASA, Man.
    Alaska is special & the good citizens elected Sara Palin governor especially.
    Dr. Rachel Chang “implies” that all that Semiletov & Shakhova observational data is freakin empirical alarmism, at least for Alaska.
    Where is Charley Chan when the planet is burning up?

    “Despite large temperature increases in Alaska in recent decades, a new analysis of NASA airborne data finds that methane is not being released from Alaskan soils into the atmosphere at unusually high rates, as recent modeling and experimental studies have suggested. The new result shows that the changes in this part of the Arctic have not yet had enough impact to affect the global methane budget.”

    Reply
  168. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 14, 2014

    Doan worry, be happy; “That’s good news, because it means there isn’t a large amount of methane coming out of the ground yet,” said lead author Rachel Chang, formerly at Harvard University …
    What a relief!

    Reply
  169. Andy in San Diego

     /  November 14, 2014

    Sistema Cantareira – The reservoirs for Sao Paolo region reaches dead pool at ~10.7%. For the past 2 days it has been at 10.8%. They’ve received 24mm precipitation in the past 24 hrs, thus keeping the level away from 10.7%.

    90mm for the month so far (1/2 way through the month), normal is ~161mm so at least they are getting rain, and fortunately a bit above average. They require ~280mm though for the month to keep the decline abated.

    December is the start of their rainy season, so hopefully they can hold out till then and get a decent rainy season.

    Itu, a commuter suburb town outside of Sao Paolo has had zero water for over a month now.

    Hope all is well Robert, hopefully we haven’t seen you due to you being busy and things are going very well.

    Reply
  170. Kevin Jones

     /  November 14, 2014

    National Weather Service. Current temperature: Keene, N.H. 36F. Barrow, AK. 30F(11:17a.m. EST)

    Reply
  171. Jay M

     /  November 15, 2014

    asshole question: what does a commuter suburb town outside of Sao Paulo do sans H2O?
    lot of sociological research could be going on

    Reply
    • wili

       /  November 15, 2014

      “What does a commuter suburb town outside of Sao Paulo do sans H2O?”

      Well, this may give you a bit of an idea:

      “It’s been nearly a month since Diomar Pereira has had running water at his home in Itu, a commuter city outside Sao Paulo that is at the epicenter of the worst drought to hit southeastern Brazil in more than eight decades.

      Like others in this city whose indigenous name means “big waterfall,” Pereira must scramble to find water for drinking, bathing and cooking. On a recent day when temperatures hit 90 degrees (32 Celsius), he drove to a community kiosk where people with empty soda bottles and jugs lined up to use a water spigot. Pereira filled several 13-gallon containers, which he loaded into his Volkswagen bug.

      “I have a job and five children to raise and am always in a rush to find water so we can bathe,” said Pereira, a truck driver who makes the trip to get water every couple of days. “It’s very little water for a lot of people.”

      Brazil is approaching the December start of its summer rainy season with its water supply nearly bare. More than 10 million people across Sao Paulo state, Brazil’s most populous and the nation’s economic engine, have been forced to cut water use over the past six months. A reservoir used by Itu has fallen to 2 percent of capacity and, because its system relies on rain and groundwater rather than rivers, the city is suffering more than others.

      In Itu, desperation is taking hold. Police escort water trucks to keep them from being hijacked by armed men. Residents demanding restoration of tap water have staged violent protests.

      Restaurants and bars are using disposable cups to avoid washing dishes, and agribusinesses are transporting soybeans and other crops by road rather than by boat in areas where rivers have dried up.

      “We are entering unknown territory,” said Renato Tagnin, an expert in water resources at the environmental group Coletivo Curupira. “If this continues, we will run out of water. We have no more mechanisms and no water stored in the closet.””

      http://globegazette.com/news/world/biggest-brazil-metro-area-desperate-for-water/article_82ada37d-aca7-5e73-917a-f95a7bdaf79a.html

      Reply
      • wili

         /  November 15, 2014

        Further in the same article:

        “In Itu, where the taps have been dry for weeks, residents dream of rationing — At least that would mean some water for their homes.

        “I forgot what water looks like coming out of the faucet,” said Rosa Lara Leite, a woman carrying a few gallons of water in each hand at one of the city’s crowded drinking fountains.

        Authorities forced the city of 160,000 to cut its daily water consumption from 16 million gallons (62 million liters) to 2 million gallons (8 million liters). Dozens of water trucks are deployed to bring in water from far off towns. Huge 5,000-gallon tanks have been set up around the city.

        “We understand that people’s basic need is water. They need it,” said Marco Antonio Augusto, spokesman for a government task force created to manage Itu’s water supply. “We are bringing water from every possible place.”

        Baker Franciele Bonfim is storing whatever water she can get her hands on in every possible place. She and a neighbor recently paid $200 to buy water from a private water truck, storing it in two big tanks and about 20 plastic buckets that once held margarine for her cakes.

        “It’s an added expense but at least I am good for 15 days,” Bonfim said, as she used a thick hose to pour water into each bucket. “It has taken me a long time to use all this margarine. But water runs out fast.””

        Reply
  172. Andy in San Diego

     /  November 15, 2014

    You can see the mangled jet stream byproduct quite well on climate reanalyzer. Hudsons Bay still ice free (s/b ~25-30% coverage per 1979-2000 ave).

    Reply
    • Hi, Andy.

      Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  November 15, 2014

      This map should be on the front page of every major newspaper in the world.

      Reply
      • Mark from New England

         /  November 15, 2014

        …the temperature departure from average map. I’m sure Senator Inofe is feeling vindicated when it’s 20F below normal in Oklahoma, but he and every denier in a position of influence needs to know it’s 30 F above average in the Arctic and over Greenland.

        Reply
  173. It’s a terrible and tragic situation in Sao Paulo & Itu.
    Meanwhile take a look the ClimateReanalyer Air Temp Anomaly above (Nov. 13 comment). It’s updated as we speak.
    That Arctic weather engine is now + 4.05 C and covers much of the polar region — Greenland too.

    Reply
  174. wili

     /  November 15, 2014

    Thanks for those maps. Talk about a loopy jet stream!
    For a broader perspective on our general overshoot predicament, see this short video with footprint guru William Reese: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kQgb1w792M#t=169

    Reply
    • … sometimes I feel like a macabre, but thoughtful, voyeur… TALLY HO.

      Reply
      • Apneaman

         /  November 15, 2014

        Well dt, it’s either that or denial or techno-utopiaisim or join a cargo cult. I do not think anyone really gets to choose.

        Reply
  175. Colorado Bob

     /  November 15, 2014

    Deadly floods sweep southeastern France

    Heavy rain in the region was expected to continue through mid-Saturday, according to Météo France, which has predicted between 40 to 80mm of rainfall for the Vaucluse and Bouches-du-Rhône regions.

    Météo France has also predicted up to 140mm of rainfall for the Var and Alpes-Maritimes regions, which are already waterlogged after days of bad weather.

    http://www.france24.com/en/20141115-france-flood-le-gard-rain-southeastern/

    Reply
  176. Mark from New England

     /  November 15, 2014

    Late November sees strong polar amplification, mangled jet stream and extreme weather across the Northern Hemisphere… (beat Robert to his next headline😉

    Reply
  177. You got that right, Mark, New Orleans is only five degrees warmer than Boston! :O

    Reply
  178. LJR

     /  November 16, 2014

    Robert,

    You have an interesting group of people making comments and I’d like to suggest that even if you don’t have the time to post you might do something like was done with “Drumbeat” on TheOilDrum. Just create an empty entry every few days. Even if you don’t have the time to post it would allow people to continue making comments during your fallow periods.

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  November 16, 2014

      Good idea. And if Robert could let us know that he might not be able to post a new article for several weeks; that’d let us know he’s OK and hasn’t been taken to ‘Earth II’ by friendly aliens or some such😉

      Reply
  179. Everyday about 21 trains filled with coal leave Peabody’s North Antelope Rochelle Mine in Wyoming, which is one of the biggest surface mines in the world. Photograph: Mae Ryan/The Guardian

    Reply
    • – Coal’s war on the world? Or a “modelled crisis”?

      The real story of US coal: inside the world’s biggest coalmine
      Report by Suzanne Goldenberg and video by Mae Ryan in North Antelope Rochelle Mine, Wyoming

      In the world’s biggest coalmine, even a 400 tonne truck looks like a toy. Everything about the scale of Peabody Energy’s operations in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming is big and the mines are only going to get bigger – despite new warnings from the United Nations on the dangerous burning of fossil fuels, despite Barack Obama’s promises to fight climate change, and despite reports that coal is in its death throes.

      At the east pit of Peabody’s North Antelope Rochelle mine, the layer of coal takes up 60ft of a 250ft trough in the earth, and runs in an uninterrupted black stripe for 50 miles.

      … As it turns out, the company’s official position is that there is no such thing as human-caused climate change. “We do not question the climate changing. It has been changing for as long as man has recorded history,” Svec said. Climate change was a “modelled crisis”, he went on.

      “What we would say is that there is still far more understanding that is required for any type of impacts of C02 on carbon concerns.” Asked whether he saw climate change as a threat, Svec said: “Climate concerns are a threat to the extent that they lead to policies that hurt people.”

      http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/10/-sp-the-real-story-of-us-coal-inside-the-worlds-biggest-coal-mine

      Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  November 16, 2014

      That doesn’t look like a ‘war on coal’, but rather coal’s war on the biosphere.

      Reply
  180. Kevin Jones

     /  November 16, 2014

    NWS 5:55 a.m. EST Keene, NH 19F Barrow AK 25F

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  November 16, 2014

      It’s warmer in Barrow than in NH! Yikes. But it probably won’t keep up for too long, we hope.

      Reply
    • Jacque

       /  November 16, 2014

      7:18 MT
      time: Barrow, AK 24.7 F, Wichita KS (home of Kochs) 14.9 F degrees

      Reply
  181. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 16, 2014

    Vic Svec is a trained forked-tongue lawyerfish zealously representing his paying client, The Peabody Coal Colossus, just as he was trained to do in law school.

    Vic just loves practicing law, dressing up with three pieces, power ties, & “reputation management.”

    “If the gloves doan fit, you must acquit.”

    Vic Svec is Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications for Peabody Energy, the world’s largest private-sector coal company.

    Svec has 28 years of experience in investor and public relations and joined Peabody in 1998. His previous employers include industry leaders Anheuser-Busch Companies and Brunswick Corporation.

    Specialties: Svec has executive responsibility for investor relations, corporate communications, reputation management, media relations, employee communications and community relations.

    Reply
  182. Colorado Bob

     /  November 16, 2014

    Genoa Flash Floods [Insane Flash Food in Italy]

    Reply
  183. wili

     /  November 16, 2014

    Another recent interesting piece on consumerism:

    http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-11-14/a-brief-history-of-contemporary-consumerism-and-anti-consumerism

    rs, whenever you get back, please delete my earlier draft of these posts that somehow got stuck in eternal moderation. Thanks.)

    Reply
  184. Colorado Bob

     /  November 16, 2014

    More floods due as wettest winter on record forecast

    Wide areas of the country suffered heavy rain and widespread flooding — and the ensuing chaos and mop-up yesterday.

    Roads were closed, trains delayed, and homes became flooded in the deluge, with some schools forced to close.

    The east of the country suffered the most and there may be worse to come, according to forecasters who warn that this winter is shaping up to be the wettest on record.

    Last month saw an annual rainfall increase of 50% while, so far in November, we are experiencing double the average level of rain for this time of year.

    Met Éireann issued an orange alert weather warning for Dublin and surrounding counties, as water rose up to a metre in parts of Dublin and Kildare, with drivers becoming trapped in their cars and homes flooded.

    http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/more-floods-due-as-wettest-winter-on-record-forecast-297962.html

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  November 17, 2014

      Europe is definitely getting hit hard in these early years of AGW. Hard to believe the UK and Ireland could become even wetter than they’ve been these last few winters and springs. If only we could direct some of that rain to California and the Sao Paolo region of Brazil.

      Reply
  185. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 16, 2014

    Rednecks rolling & blowing coal – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbAhfThNoco
    Reputation manager Vic Svec likes to watch.

    Reply
  186. Colorado Bob

     /  November 16, 2014

    Warmest oceans ever recorded

    Source:
    University of Hawaii ‑ SOEST
    Summary:
    This summer has seen the highest global mean sea surface temperatures ever recorded. Temperatures even exceed those of the record-breaking 1998 El Nino year.
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/11/141114090009.htm

    Reply
  187. Andy in San Diego

     /  November 16, 2014

    Antarctic Ice Extent dropping like a rock. A lot of first year ice plus warm water hitting it like a hairdryer.

    Reply
  188. Nov 16. Check again the above ClimateReanalyzer Temp & Jet Stream: Arctic + 4.30 C. and JS looks like broken pieces of uncooked spaghetti noodles thrown on a counter top.

    Reply
  189. Colorado Bob

     /  November 16, 2014

    Climate change in G20 communique after ‘trench warfare’

    The final G20 communique includes a significant passage on climate change after “difficult discussions” among leaders on Sunday, and despite an impassioned defence of coal and fossil fuel industry by Prime Minister Tony Abbott.

    After much wrangling, the final leaders’ communique includes a recommendation for nations to commit funds to the UN’s Green Climate Fund that Prime Minister Tony Abbott opposes.

    According to sources, a clear majority of leaders – including US president Barack Obama – argued for stronger language in the communique on climate change, to the apparent chagrin of Mr Abbott.
    Mr Abbott gave an impassioned defence of coal and, reportedly, argued against inserting a line in the communique recommending the abolition of fossil fuel subsidies, an objective of the G20 for many years.

    Mr Obama is understood to have spoken forcefully against Mr Abbott’s position on fossil fuel subsidies. The final communique calls on G20 members to “rationalise and phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”.
    Mr Abbott had support from Saudi Arabia and Canada, but countries led by the US and Europe remained steadfast

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/g20/climate-change- in-g20-communique-after-trench-warfare-20141116-11 no3q.html#ixzz3JH583Wcu

    Reply
    • Phil

       /  November 17, 2014

      Merkel also gave a speech today in Australia which identified the threats of climate change, following on from Obama over the weekend.

      Some reports also that Canada might be contributing to the UN green fund that USA and Japan recently provided pledges for over the weekend. Abbott has ruled out any Australian contribution. He has said in the past that the fund was a left-wing socalist conspiracy.

      Reply
  190. Colorado Bob

     /  November 16, 2014

    Mr Abbott had support from Saudi Arabia and Canada, …………………………. What strange set of bed fellows. who forecast these three, making common cause 5 years ago ?

    Now let us all bash the greedy climate researchers , living off the fat of government grants. While countries like Saudi Arabia wander the Earth with their crude based beggar’s cups.

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  November 17, 2014

      Yes, very strange bedfellows. But at least for once, it’s not the USA sabotaging a climate treaty or effort!

      Reply
      • On the contrary, Mr. Abbott’s Australia, Canada, and the Saudis are all insufferable fossil fuel addicts or suppliers.

        Reply
    • Phil

       /  November 17, 2014

      Not only the Federal Government but many state Government. The Queensland Conservative State Government today has decided to use tax payer money to build railway and port facilities (Abbott Point near Bowen) for the large Carmichael coal mine in the Gallilee Basin in Queensland to export coal for Indian power stations. They could not get funding from international investment banks who had pulled out of the project. A key Indian bank is also provided a billion dollar finance line for the project.

      Reply
  191. Andy in San Diego

     /  November 16, 2014

    Tuktoyaktuk, NWT.

    current temp -7.8C
    normal temp -18c to -26c

    Reply
    • Andy (at work)

       /  November 17, 2014

      -6c @ 8 am. today.
      -18c to -26c normal.

      Reply
      • Mark from New England

         /  November 17, 2014

        Andy, You’re not talking San Diego are you?

        Reply
      • Andy (at work)

         /  November 17, 2014

        Mark,

        Nope (that would be the end of the world if it got that cold here!).

        I’m talking about Tuk, NWT. Supposed to be ~12c colder than it is today.

        Reply
      • Mark from New England

         /  November 17, 2014

        Andy, I thought so! Good luck to anyone living in Tuk right now – I couldn’t take all the darkness of winter that far north, never mind the changing and often damned cold climate.

        Reply
      • Andy (at work)

         /  November 17, 2014

        I lived / worked in the Arctic when around 20 yrs old (when you are young, stupid, able to take it up there).

        Winter = no sun. Where I was it got a bit bright on the horizon from 11am to 1pm (2 hrs). You saw no sun. Cold, bloody wretched cold.

        Summer = no darkness. It doesn’t matter if you tin foil the windows, your body somehow knows it is light outside.

        People go crazy up there, very tough not to.

        Reply
  192. Will GOP put climate science back on trial?

    Senate Republicans appear likely to use their majority status in the next Congress to attack the argument behind climate change in an attempt to undercut environmental policies.

    But some GOP strategists wonder whether such an offensive might backfire.

    Questioning — and attempting to delegitimize — climate scientists has been an oft-used tactic of Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), who is poised to reprise his role as chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee.

    …Tony Leiserowitz, director of Yale University’s Project on Climate Change Communication, said that skepticism of science is likely to continue as an argument in the GOP-led Senate, especially with Inhofe controlling the environmental agenda.

    “He has clearly, very publicly positioned himself as saying that it’s the greatest hoax in American history,” Leiserowitz said. “I doubt anything has happened to convince him otherwise.”

    Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Ind.), a member of the House Science Committee, is looking forward to Inhofe’s chairmanship and Republican control of the Senate.

    The House Science Committee, under leadership of Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas), has held multiple hearing to promote climate change skepticism and undermine scientists who disagree with them.

    For example, Smith called a hearing in May to question the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which has called in recent reports for dramatic measures to reduce carbon emissions quickly. Three of the four witnesses argued that the report had major flaws.

    “Right now in the country, in the media particularly and on Capitol Hill, it’s been a one-sided discussion,” Bucshon said. “I’m hopeful that we’ll have a balanced discussion about the facts, and let’s determine what the facts are.”
    By Timothy Cama – 11/16/14
    thehill.com/policy/energy-environment-will-gop-put-climate-science-back-on-trial

    http://thehill.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_full/public/blogs/inhofejames_021413getty.jpg?itok=FhM-Y_uE

    Reply
    • Apneaman

       /  November 17, 2014

      They already have a fix for that. It’s called Adderall (speed). Sure it’s addictive and know one knows the long term implication of giving it to children, but who gives a fuck? It’s highly profitable (good for the economy) and keeps the little one off your back after a hard days work. In addition, it will get junior through college. If ADD was not enough for you, they have a new one ODD; Oppositional defiant disorder. Currently it is just used to diagnose children (so was ADD) but that can easily be changed to include adults such as, loud environmentalists, war protesters, whistle blowers and pretty much anybody who speaks truth to power. The Soviets shoved a lot of people into gulags with similar justifications. Y’alls crazy! ODD for adults coming to a former democracy near you.

      Reply
    • Griffin

       /  November 17, 2014

      It really does make sense. We have evolved in a range of CO2 that has been exceeded. There has to be consequences.
      “”What befalls the earth, befalls all the sons of the earth” Chief Seattle.
      “This sucks.” Griffin.

      Reply
    • Right, CO2 — and dozens more aerosol chemical substances and compounds that are byproducts of fossil fuel and industrial combustion or generation. Many of these certainly have neurological consequences on the population. There is probably some hypoxia too.

      This should be a given.

      Our breathable air is saturated with elements that are other than oxygen or anything naturally occurring.
      Our modern civilizations are breathing stuff never before experienced by those of the past.
      Just look at how stultified many of us have become in the face of increasing danger.

      Not long ago, I heard a head doctor of a major metropolitan hospital say that the majority of ailments treated are “environmentally caused.” We have had a tremendous upsurge in asthma and COPD episodes.

      “High cost of healthcare.” It’s no wonder.

      Reply
  193. Andy in San Diego

     /  November 18, 2014

    If you get a chance, check out the graphs on the right side. Data on freeze up, thaw & frozen duration anomalies for Canadian Lakes in the arctic. The data goes back to 1860.

    https://www.ccin.ca/home/ccw/lakeice/current/state

    Reply
  194. Phil

     /  November 18, 2014

    The JISAO monthly PDO value for october came in at 1.49, up from 1.08 in September. That makes it a run of positive values so far this year.

    Reply
  195. Colorado Bob

     /  November 18, 2014

    Why Are Millions of Starfish ‘Melting’?
    A virus is the culprit behind a gruesome wasting disease that has struck sea stars along the West Coast of Canada and the U.S.

    Urchins and cucumbers seemed to have escaped the ill effects of the virus until now. But in recent weeks, reports have started to come in that they too are dying along beaches in the Pacific Northwest, Hewson said.

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/11/141117-starfish-dying-epidemic-virus-animal-ocean-science/?google_editors_picks=true

    Reply
    • Andy in San Diego

       /  November 18, 2014

      The next step up on the food chain (those that consume starfish).
      Manta ray, shark, otter, crab, large bony fish

      The step below on the food chain (consumed by starfish).
      Mollusk, clams, mussels, snails, organic debris (plant / animal).

      Reply
  196. Colorado Bob

     /  November 18, 2014

    NASA CO2 atmospheric dispersion map.
    NASA Computer Model Provides a New Portrait of Carbon Dioxide

    http://www.nasa.gov/press/goddard/2014/november/nasa-computer-model-provides-a-new-portrait-of-carbon-dioxide/#.VGstusmCe2d

    Reply
  197. Colorado Bob

     /  November 18, 2014

    40% decline in polar bears in Alaska, western Canada heightens concern

    The number of polar bears in eastern Alaska and western Canada has declined by 40%, according to a scientific study that raises more questions about the impact of global warming on the creature that has become the symbol of some of its worst effects.
    The study, published in the current issue of Ecological Applications, was carried out by scientists from several groups, including the U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada, that tagged and released polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010. The bear population in the area shrank to about 900 in 2010, down from about 1,600 in 2004, according to their findings.

    Perhaps even more worrisome, just two of 80 polar bear cubs that the international team tracked between 2003 and 2007 survived, according to the study. Normally about half of the cubs live.

    Link

    Reply
  198. Kevin Jones

     /  November 18, 2014

    Colorado Bob: 1 Ineffable
    2 Unbearable (no goofey-assed pun intended)

    Reply
  199. Kevin Jones

     /  November 18, 2014

    >Starfish <Enterprise

    Reply
  200. As temperatures rise, soil will relinquish less carbon to the atmosphere than predicted

    Current climate models probably overestimate the amount of carbon that will be released from soil into the atmosphere as global temperatures rise, according to research from the US Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-11-temperatures-soil-relinquish-carbon-atmosphere.html#jCp

    Reply
    • wili

       /  November 18, 2014

      Well, that sounds like good news. Basically, even if we were able to stop all further emissions, we would have to depend on lots of these kinds of ‘good surprises’ plus doing active carbon sequestration on massive scales to keep from having every higher temperatures for quite a while. And of course things like WAIS collapse are completely unstoppable at this point whatever we do.

      Reply
  201. EXTREME heat has killed thousands bats in northern NSW, with wildlife carers now working around the clock to save hundreds of orphaned babies while council workers clear huge piles of flying fox carcasses.

    Temperatures rocketed to 44 degrees in Casino on Saturday, sparking the mass deaths of up to 5000 flying foxes, many of which simply dropped out of trees and were dead before they hit the ground.

    In similar scenes, more than 2000 flying foxes perished in the Richmond Valley at the weekend.

    There were extraordinary scenes as the bat carcasses began piling up on the ground, sparking warnings to the public not to touch the animals for fear of catching viruses or other illnesses.
    dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw

    Extreme heat in Casino northern NSW has caused the deaths of scores of bats. Picture: Dee Hartin

    Reply
    • Apneaman

       /  November 18, 2014

      It’s not even summer there yet is it? They happily voted in bold faced climate denier Tony Abbott and they love their home boy Rupert Murdock, so fuck em. People that stupid and gullible should not be in the gene pool. Abbott reminds me of the early 20th century preforming clown from Italy, Benito Mussolini. I hope Tony’s fate is the same and I hope it’s televised.

      Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  November 18, 2014

      This also happened just before “Black Saturday” in the suburbs North of Melbourne , flying foxes cannot stand temps above 44C.

      Reply
  202. Kevin Jones

     /  November 18, 2014

    Songs in the Key(stone) of Life? Little Stevie Wonder to do fundraiser for Senator Mary Landrieu. “Whenever I wonder what The United States of America is up to I just look into my own black heart.” Gore Vidal

    Reply
    • rayduray

       /  November 19, 2014

      Hi Kevin, have you got a source for that Gore Vidal quote? I’m a huge Gore fan and I’ve never seen that one before. Is it from a character in one of his novels? It certainly does not sound like Gore expressing his inner soul.🙂

      Reply
      • Michael Farrell

         /  November 19, 2014

        In a review of Gore Vidal: The United States of Amnesia, J R Jones of the Chicago Reader closes with ‘”Whenever I want to know what the United States is up to,” Vidal remarks at one point, “I look into my own black heart.”‘

        Reply
  203. wili

     /  November 18, 2014

    We’ve just passed 400 comments, with now sign of rs for nearly three weeks. Is that some kind of record?

    Reply
  204. Colorado Bob

     /  November 18, 2014

    As elephants go, so go the trees

    mmary:
    Overhunting has been disastrous for elephants, but their forest habitats have also been caught in the crossfire. A first-of-its-kind study shows that the dramatic loss of elephants, which disperse seeds after eating vegetation, is leading to the local extinction of a dominant tree species, with likely cascading effects for other forest life.

    Link

    Reply
  205. Colorado Bob

     /  November 18, 2014

    History’s lesson reveals depth of fish catch decline

    Summary:
    Scientists in Australia have used historic media to measure the decline in Queensland’s pink snapper fishery, highlighting a drop of almost 90 percent in catch rates since the 19th century.

    Link

    Reply
  206. Colorado Bob

     /  November 18, 2014

    Atlantic Ocean temperatures continue above normal: report
    Fisheries and Oceans Canada reporting record highs on Grand Banks

    Warmer ocean temperatures are continuing in Canada’s Atlantic Ocean zones, according to the latest report on 2013 oceanographic conditions released by Fisheries and Oceans Canada.

    The federal department began a program to monitor the marine ecosystem in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Scotian Shelf and Newfoundland and Labrador Shelf in 1998.

    “Sea-surface temperatures reached record values across the zone in summer 2012, remaining generally above normal in 2013 with record September values on the Grand Banks,” according the to the report.

    Scientists used 39 measures including ice, surface and bottom temperatures. Of these, seven were within normal values and 32 were above normal.

    Link

    Reply
    • Andy in San Diego

       /  November 19, 2014

      That is one of the last fisheries with anything worth catching in it. What was maintained with some management will be lost to the temperature shift.

      Reply
  207. Andy in San Diego

     /  November 19, 2014

    An interesting exercise (that I suspect is underway in a few places) would be to compile the species that are in sudden decline such as starfish, corals, cacao etc… and then look at what above it in the food chain will get hit due to lack of food and so on. Just to do a rough calculation, scenario on food chain collapse as it hits areas and species.

    Reply
  208. Jay M

     /  November 19, 2014

    trophic collapse simpification evolution from a few cores of evolution

    Reply
  209. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 19, 2014

    Our honest scientific colleague Guy McPherson is bummed out big time.
    It appears that he is suffering from overwork, exhaustion, & the brainless criticism of the deniers.
    Many of his thankful fans are coming to his defense at Nature Bats Last.

    Reply
    • wili

       /  November 19, 2014

      I liked his quote from Farley Mowat: “We’re under some gross misconception that we’re a good species, going somewhere important, and that at the last minute we’ll correct our errors and God will smile on us. It’s delusion.”

      Pretty much sums it up.

      Reply
  210. Colorado Bob

     /  November 19, 2014

    40 Years of Scratching Reveals Ocean Acidification Data

    The current rate of acidification for the ocean is one unseen in the past 300 million years, but the data reveal important regional and seasonal differences between ocean basins. Ocean acidification hot spots dot the globe at different times of year, particularly the northwest Indian Ocean and areas around the tip of South America in the summer, and the Bering Sea in the winter.

    Having an accurate look at current seasonality and future expected rates of change provides a stark warning about what the future could look like. According to the study, areas around Bermuda will likely see oceans acidify to levels currently beyond the current seasonal swings in the next 40-50 years, meaning plants and animals will have to adapt to an entirely new environment.

    http://www.climatecentral.org/news/ocean-acidification-new-baseline-18351

    Reply
  211. Gerald Spezio

     /  November 19, 2014

    The ultimate techno fix – drinking from the potty.
    What me worry? I piss in the back yard.
    http://news.yahoo.com/dry-san-diego-look-sewers-water-source-075210043.html

    Reply
  212. Kevin Jones

     /  November 19, 2014

    “We missed the baseline some 200 years ago.” Reminds me of oceanographer Jeremy Jackson’s lecture to the US Navy War College called Ocean Apocalypse. [compared to other earth sciences]: “What took us so long?” (to sound an alarm)

    Reply
  213. Kevin Jones

     /  November 19, 2014

    rayduray: It’s from the recent documentary The United States of Amnesia. I’ve yet to see it but am told it is a must!

    Reply
  214. Kevin Jones

     /  November 19, 2014

    p.s. nice hat!

    Reply
  215. Kevin Jones

     /  November 19, 2014

    paraphrasing: The television commercial is the only art form our nation has created, and we sell soap and presidents in the same fashion Gore Vidal

    Reply
  216. Colorado Bob

     /  November 19, 2014

    Are the Alps Crumbling?
    Rising temperatures are causing more rock slides on the world’s biggest mountains.

    Read more: http://www.mensjournal.com/magazine/are-the-alps-crumbling-20141115#ixzz3JWYw7Gw8

    Reply
  217. Colorado Bob

     /  November 19, 2014

    Brisbane storms: swift water rescues as flooding hits city

    The storm warnings started shortly after 2pm, with an expected 30 millimetres predicted by the Bureau of Meteorology.

    In the end, that was understated, with 55.8 millimetres falling in Brisbane and a massive 87.6 millimetres at Archerfield.

    Ninety millimetres was recorded in just 60 minutes at Geebung, while Inala hit triple figures – 100 millimetre in an hour.

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/brisbane-storms-swift-water-rescues-as-flooding-hits-city-20141119-11q1fc.html#ixzz3JWoi67Ak

    Reply
  218. Colorado Bob

     /  November 19, 2014

    Albania: Army on standby amid heavy flooding

    Agriculture Minister Edmond Planarity on Wednesday said the storm dumped 130 millimeters (5.1 inches) of rain in two hours overnight on the Lezhe and Lac districts, northwest of capital Tirana, causing power outages and flooding homes in those areas.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/albania-army-on-standby-amid-heavy-flooding/2014/11/19/ce3a9190-6fd4-11e4-a2c2-478179fd0489_story.html

    Reply
  219. Kevin Jones

     /  November 19, 2014

    Lord, I believe it’s rainin’ all over the world….rainin’, rain’in, rainin’ Dr. Ray Charles

    Reply
  220. Kevin Jones

     /  November 19, 2014

    Thank you, wili gotta get my hands on some Sterno……

    Reply
  221. Kevin Jones

     /  November 19, 2014

    For Youngsters: wicki has a fine brief history of Sterno. And no, I ain’t gonna link to it.

    Reply
    • wili

       /  November 19, 2014

      Thanks, Mark. COBob posted the original NASA link above. (NB: Always look at whatever Bob posts!!)
      There is an angry persistent ‘smoking’ red blob over some part of Eastern China, but I can’t figure the exact location. Any ideas?

      Reply
  222. Kevin Jones

     /  November 19, 2014

    Gerald Spezio: Thanks for directing me to Guy’s latest reportage. I’ve appreciation for his efforts and good heart, (as for all who attempt both; you & I included). Pretty much everyone here is on pretty much the same page. The interesting question from here on in is: What (if anything) are I, You, We, All going to do?

    Reply
    • wili

       /  November 19, 2014

      1) Reduce your own footprint (except in service to #2)
      2) Do persistently at least one thing that ‘gets the word out,’ either in person or through (at least) one form of media or another, especially if you can influence permanent, institutional changes as well as prompt changes in mindset.
      3) Anything else that has a distant chance of working–others, please add best ideas!

      Reply
  223. Colorado Bob

     /  December 18, 2014

    I can write the most complex bullshit in the history of the world. In the end it’s just just bullshit And greed ,

    Reply

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