Buffalo’s Climate Change Driven Mega Snow-Flood

Earlier this week something rather interesting and disturbing happened to the Jet Stream.

In the extreme northwest, a large heat pool over Alaska and the Beaufort Sea in the Arctic Ocean kept temperatures in the range of 10 to 36 degrees Fahrenheit above average. To the south, a powerful super typhoon, gorged on Pacific Ocean waters ranging from 1-2 C hotter than normal, raced into the extratropical region of the Central and Northern Pacific. And to the north and east, the cold core that normally resides over the North Pole began slipping south.

Arctic Anomaly Map

(Massive warm air invasion of the Arctic earlier this week led to a major polar vortex disruption driving cold air out of the Arctic and setting off record snowfall in the region of Buffalo, New York. Image source: Climate Reanalyzer.)

As the supertyphoon’s remnants hit the warm weakness in the Jet Stream near Alaska, it bombed out into a monster extra-tropical low. This kicked warm air even further north, causing a whiplash in the Jet and driving the cold air core south over Canada.

Cold air rocketed down over the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes. These waters, having soaked up the heat of yet another hotter than average American October and early November, squeezed an epic amount of moisture and storm feeding energy out into the air. Over the past two days, the result was as kind of thundersnow storm that parked itself in one location, dumping foot after foot of snow. By the time the final tally was counted this morning, as much as 8 feet had fallen over Buffalo New York. A record amount never before seen in so short a time span and yet so far ahead of winter.

More than seven deaths, multiple building collapses, a paralyzation of transportation, and extraordinary damages prompted the New York State governor to declare a state of emergency.

Yes, Climate Change Has Put the Weather on Steroids

All these events occurred in the context of a climate increasingly distorted by human-caused warming. The Northern Hemisphere during this week has averaged over 1 degree C hotter than normal. And the Arctic has averaged at around 2.5 degrees C hotter than normal.

In this mix of climate change driven extreme weather soup, that warming Arctic is critical. It provided the weakness in the Jet Stream for a supertyphoon’s remnants to exploit. It provided a wobbly polar vortex all too ready to make another charge south over North America. And the super-hot equatorial waters of the Pacific added yet more energy to this stoked and building climate fire.

Cold Snow to Turn to Warm Flood

But the tale of climate change driven extreme weather isn’t over by a long shot. The cold dipole which drove over the Great Lakes earlier this week was anything but stable. Now, warmth is surging north over the US heartland springing up from the hot pools of the Gulf of Mexico and the Eastern Pacific. It is producing a warm frontal boundary that is now driving across the US heartland. By Saturday and Sunday, it will dump a warming rain over Buffalo’s 7-8 feet of snowpack.

Temperatures are expected to climb into a much warmer than normal range of 50 degrees F by Saturday. By Sunday, the heat will build to 15-20 degrees above average reaching as high as 60 degrees F in the forecast.

Buffalo Warm Up

(Sunday GFS model forecast shows temperatures at +15 to +20 degrees Fahrenheit above average for the Buffalo region. The added high temperatures are expected to coincide with rainfall and potential major flooding from the melt of a massive 8 feet of snow in some areas. Image source: Climate Reanalyzer. Note that global temperatures in both maps are in the range of 0.39 to 0.51 C above the already hotter than normal 1979 to 2000 average.)

The snow pack is first expected to ripen, then flood away under the rising heat and a half inch to two inches of rainfall. The impact to Buffalo’s infrastructure could again be quite extraordinary. Between 9 and 15 inches worth of liquid water are locked in all that snow. Its sudden release into a landscape of clogged storm drains and choked roads is expected to provide an extraordinary flood risk. And massive piles of snow over buildings collecting more water will increase further risk of building collapse.

As of now, the National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch — which means extreme conditions may begin in as little as six hours.

Conditions in Context

Radical swings between weather extremes like those experienced by Buffalo this week are exactly the type of climate alterations we would expect as a result of human caused warming. These impacts occur in the context of a world that is now experiencing its hottest year on record globally. A place of increasingly intense droughts, rainfall, and snowfall events. A world in which the Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream is increasingly distended as air over the Arctic warms much faster than the rest of the globe.

Such extremes in weather have been predicted by climate scientists to result from human-caused warming. And we are beginning to see the start, the milder outliers, of these predicted extremes set off by the human heat forcing now. Further heightening Arctic warming, or worse, increasing cold water outflows from melting ice sheets over Greenland, will almost certainly set off far more extreme weather than what we are seeing now.

Message to climate change deniers — this serves as a warning to you. Turn back.

Links:

Climate Reanalyzer

National Weather Service Flood Watch

Dr. Jennifer Francis on How Polar Amplification Mangles the Jet Stream

There’s Growing Evidence That Global Warming is Driving Crazy Winters

Flood, Roof Collapse Fears as Snows End for Buffalo

Leave a comment

120 Comments

  1. wili

     /  November 21, 2014

    Thanks for this. I just linked to it on another forum and will do the same on others (unless, of course, you have objections).

    Reply
  2. mark o dochartaigh

     /  November 21, 2014

    People often tend to think of extremes of temperature or of rainfall as the greatest risks to the environment and mankind posed by climate change. But in the near term the greatest risks may be posed by wild swings which cannot be easily predicted using models based on past observations either recent or ancient.

    Reply
    • The rough state of the change is pretty visible in the cutting edge science. Francis, in my opinion, has provided a rather predictive analysis for what I’ve termed the start of Phase II climate change in the Northern Hemisphere.

      Hansen has also provided model analysis that is rather predictive of weather extremes in the event of more rapid Greenland and West Antarctic melt.

      Exact instances of extreme weather swings can’t be predicted, but you can provide an analysis of the overall state change and what can tend to happen through the transition.

      Reply
  3. Kevin Jones

     /  November 21, 2014

    I wish I had a river I could skate away on. joni mitchell

    Reply
  4. Kevin Jones

     /  November 21, 2014

    Just finished A Rough Ride to the Future. Found that 95 year old mind and take quite helpful. Dr. Lovelock certainly has tried.

    Reply
  5. james cole

     /  November 21, 2014

    I live in Lake Superior’s shores, but on the North Shore which rarely gets these Lake Effect snows. But, with the years and years of rising lake temperatures in all the Great Lakes, you now have potential for huge Lake Effect snows. The now, very warm waters get blasted by a large arctic air system like what we now are under, and the massive temperature differences and huge moisture load coming up off of the lake surface amounts to a Snow Bomb! Many years ago, we did have one Lake Effect early December event. After an unusually long and warm summer, we moved into the first major arctic blast of the year, only with SE winds at lower levels, setting us up for Lake Effect snows. We took on 5 feet of snow in an afternoon. It simply came down almost by the shovel full. Zero visibility for 12 hours and an epic snowfall. 5 feet near the lake, at higher elevations up in the woods, it was simply over 5 feet and up. Deer and Moose died in large numbers, trapped where they bedded down during the storm.

    Reply
  6. eric smith

     /  November 22, 2014

    Robert,
    You have been quiet for I while and it caused me a certain amount of mild panic.
    Your work is stellar and this is an existential challenge.
    Thinking of losing your work I would like to extend my offer of help.
    I am an older male with a permaculture background and free to do as my conscience dictates.
    We must gather ourselves and I have much to offer if called upon.
    Best Regards.

    Reply
  7. Andy in San Diego

     /  November 22, 2014

    This smells like a continuation of the massive downpours we have seen all year long, except it is occurring while the temperature is low.

    Reply
  8. Reblogged this on dtlange2.

    Reply
    • Hey, Robert.
      I reblogged this post, and got this response (still in moderation, though):

      “Amazing, you people can turn even extra cold, into the phony global warming!…

      TRUTH: hot air that doesn’t exist; didn’t push that cold air towards south – because hot and cold cancel each other.

      2] BUT, because is too cold on the arctic / cold air is heavy = the colder = the heavier ; therefore the earth’s centrifugal force pulls that extra cold air south and creates blizzards and extra cold winter in US, or Europe, or southern Siberia.

      3] this post only proves that: Robert Scribbler is one of the most shameless conman in the Warmist Organized Crime (WOC)”

      stefanthedenier
      globalwarmingdenier.wordpress.com
      🙂 It’s all settled now. We can all go take a nap… and, all’s well.
      DT

      Reply
      • OK, I did reply:
        “Thanks stefanthedenier, for your insights but I cannot agree on the points you made — nor do I foresee ever doing so.
        Have a nice day.”

        Reply
      • Mark from New England

         /  November 22, 2014

        DT, I think you could have been snarkier!😉

        Reply
      • doug

         /  November 22, 2014

        I keep making the point to these deniers, that they overwhelmingly have one thing in common…that they haven’t read the science. I taunt them for that. They haven’t even read any press that they don’t agree with regarding global warming. It is rare to find a global warming denier that has read a book on global warming. These fools have their minds closed off. It’s necessary and fun, to mock them to their faces about that. I have opened up a couple of minds doing that.

        Reply
  9. Jay M

     /  November 22, 2014

    It is a water inundation, frozen mostly
    sounds like rebounding warmth may melt the accumulation

    Reply
  10. docgee

     /  November 22, 2014

    The link to climate change is absurd. I well remember the great Buffalo blizzard of 1977, that shut down the city for 3 weeks. What’s too often forgotten is the fact that snowfall in the Buffalo area was literally continuous for months prior to that. When I visited the city in the fall of 1976, there was already so much snow it was almost impossible to find a parking space and I was convinced we were headed for another ice age. That was PRIOR to the 1977 blizzard.

    Since 1977 there has been nothing comparable until now. So what does it mean to attribute this event to global warming if the last comparable event took place that long ago? Did global warming cause that one too? If Buffalo were to never have another major lake effect storm from 1977 through, say, 2030, that would be seen as evidence of global warming for sure. Only it doesn’t seem to matter what sort of weather Buffalo or any other region has, no matter what happens the “scientists” can find reasons to attribute it to global warming.

    Hot weather, cold weather, rainy weather, snowy weather, dry weather, it’s all due to global warming! So how is this a falsifiable theory?

    And no, I’m not a right wing nutcase. I’ve voted Democrat all my life. The notion that only conservatives are capable of seeing through this delusion is also a delusion. Anyone with critical thinking skills can see through it.

    Reply
    • More common planetary wave patterns are certainly attributable to climate change and polar amplification.

      As for the blizzard of 77. Yes, it happened during a 2 standard deviation wave pattern. And yes it dropped 100 inches of snow. It happened in January and February. And during a time when the world was just starting a rapid warm-up due to human impacts. I think teasing the human climate change influence out of that event may well be a bit more difficult but might prove an interesting study.

      As for the current event, we have 84+ inches of snow in November. That’s well outside anything recorded for this month so early in the season, or even over a similar period of time. A week later we are looking at 60-70 F temps and a flood risk due to thaw. Not at all typical climate variation for Buffalo. This in the context of the hottest year on record, and a polar amplification that can be visibly seen to alter planetary wave patterns.

      To fail to acknowledge climate change as a contributor, regardless of your political affiliation (and it looks like you are in the democratic minority in your downplaying of the issue) seems to me to be the very height of mental calcification and short sighted thinking. But you probably can take comfort in the fact that many republicans and conservatives share your lack of insight into what is clearly a visibly altered and changing climate state.

      Reply
    • Spike

       /  November 24, 2014

      Docgee – it’s worth reading this study summary from MIT. Explains why heavy snowfall can still occur, or even increase in a warming world.

      http://newsoffice.mit.edu/2014/global-warming-snowstorms-0827

      Reply
    • Bill H.

       /  November 24, 2014

      DocGee:
      Only it doesn’t seem to matter what sort of weather Buffalo or any other region has, no matter what happens the “scientists” can find reasons to attribute it to global warming.

      Would you be so kind as to furnish us with some evidence for this sweeping generalisation? If not please don’t waste our time with your evidence-free libel of climate scientists.

      Reply
  11. 2100 HRS 11/21/14 PDX OR USA:
    Air temp. now 54 F 12 C after being in the low 40s F all day. That wet subtropical (hothouse) air I mentioned earlier brought some heat too. Be sure AK is getting the same.
    I been trying to dress warm all day, now at night, I feel like I’m having hot flashes — opening windows and putting short sleeves on.

    Reply
  12. Faith groups divided over God’s role in climate change, natural disasters

    Americans largely concur that God created the Earth. But when it comes to how he wants its environment treated, and how much he’s willing to intercede — the agreement ends.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/local/wp/2014/11/21/faith-groups-divided-over-gods-role-in-climate-change-natural-disasters/

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  November 22, 2014

      Katherine Hayhoe is a wonderful person to listen to in regards to this topic.

      Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  November 22, 2014

      When will the “Christian Right” idiots realize that as intelligent life, WE are God’s (or the Universe’s) agents on Earth. We are the Universe becoming aware of itself. That confers on us a primary responsibility to be good stewards to this, a likely very rare and incredibly diverse planet in this incredibly vast Universe.

      Reply
      • Well they have Secure Salvation which basically means you get to do what you want, God’s forgiven you in advance, Prosperity teaching, meaning God wants to make you rich and will if you only have faith, and Dominionism, which means God has given his faithful carte blanche to rule over the planet. These are what make the “Christian Right” a bunch of “Christ-Psychotics.” So it’s natural they would deny AGW.

        Reply
    • I’m no theologian, and am highly dubious of any claims of ‘Creation’ but I sure don’t want to be around, or be party to any ‘Destruction’.

      I am not a theologian but I am sure any ‘Creator’ would be extremely displeased with us if we killed off this beautiful world we have.

      if anyone thinks and god, or God, will welcome you to ‘heaven’ if you destroy this beautiful world bestowed on you — forget it. The ‘Welcome’ mat will be withdrawn upon your approach.

      ###

      A good take by the Atlantic:

      Half of Americans Think Climate Change Is a Sign of the Apocalypse
      What a new report on theology and global warming means for public policy

      Snowmageddon, snowpocalypse, snowzilla, just snow. Superstorm Sandy, receding shorelines, and more. Hurricanes Isaac, Ivan, and Irene, with cousins Rammasun, Bopha, and Haiyan.

      The parade of geological changes and extreme weather events around the world since 2011 has been stunning. Perhaps that’s part of why, as the Public Religion Research Institute reported on Friday, “The number of Americans who believe
      that natural disasters are evidence of the apocalypse has increased somewhat over the past couple years.”

      As of 2014, it’s estimated that nearly half of Americans—49 percent—say natural disasters are a sign of “the end times,” as described in the Bible. That’s up from an estimated 44 percent in 2011.

      http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/11/half-of-americans-think-climate-change-is-a-sign-of-the-apocalypse/383029/

      Reply
      • Well it’s bad news for industrial civilization for sure, but it’s no apocalypse. But it explains why so many think Obama’s the Antichrist.

        Then again, tack on “bush” at the end of Obama’s name, and you have “Mabus”, Nostradamus’ third Antichrist. And he’s basically continued Bush’s policies with the greatest impact….

        Reply
  13. Colorado Bob

     /  November 22, 2014

    Current conditions –
    A rather amazing NWS page , I have never seen this before.

    http://preview.weather.gov/edd/?lat=40.329452873812926&lon=-75.73059082031124&zoom=6&ql=FFFFFFTFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF&ml=&bm=Google_Terrain&lsr=F&lfc=F&rt=obs&rf=major|moderate|minor|action&ht=F&pid=N0Q&sf=GOES_Infrared&ri=15&obs=TFTTFFFFFFTFFFFT&is=1&ou=mph&od=-50&ships=F&cluster=T&radO=0.75&satO=0.75&hazO=0.55&tropO=0.7&ndfdO=0.7&ndfdR=Continental_US&ndfdF=Maximum_Temperature_%28%C2%BAF%29&ndfdT=12&ndfdTS=&f100=F&lviz=F&fullscreen=F&fxt=Point_%28Text_Only%29&ppd=24&pdy=3&satf=60&obsync=F&owv=F&flavor=Advanced&tfo=&tfd=&tfw=null&ht=F&hd=F&ho=null&hf=null&hb=F&ot=Meteorological_Observation&hvt=F&sht=T&uwl=F

    Reply
    • wili

       /  November 22, 2014

      For those of us who don’t frequent that site, could you please explain what exactly it is that you have not seen before and perhaps it’s significance? Thanks ahead of time for any enlightenment, and for all your great work.

      Reply
  14. Thanks for the continutng documentation of news and events combined with insightful analysis!

    Reply
  15. Colorado Bob

     /  November 22, 2014

    Let us all rejoice …………

    Lindsay Lohan 2014: ‘Speed-The-Plow’ Actress Obsessed With Becoming ‘A Movie Star Again’

    Read more: http://www.designntrend.com/articles/26707/20141121/lindsay-lohan-2014-speed-plow-actress-obsessed-becoming-movie-star-again.htm#ixzz3JoPr93nz

    Reply
  16. Colorado Bob

     /  November 22, 2014

    Lohan’s days of snorting cocaine in her dressing room are over, the source insisted.

    “Lindsay is doing better than she has in years!” said the insider. “She is still sober and we are all very supportive.”

    Now I can sleep at night .

    Reply
    • climatehawk1

       /  November 22, 2014

      Love it, thanks for keeping us up to speed on what Americans really care about, and not all this silly climate change stuff. BTW, what’s up with the Kardashians?🙂

      Reply
      • Ouse M.D.

         /  November 22, 2014

        Don’t worry, in Europe You also get news only about soccer players breaking their little toes.
        Nothing about the north- atlantic storms that have hurricane charateristics. Nor about the collapsing jetstream.

        Reply
      • doug

         /  November 22, 2014

        Butt pictures. Or haven’t you seen?

        Reply
  17. Griffin

     /  November 22, 2014

    Here’s hoping that the residents of the Buffalo area make it through the warm weather without big trouble. Scary stuff for the homeowners. http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/weather/day-5-preparing-for-massive-floods-on-day-6-20141122

    Reply
  18. Andy in San Diego

     /  November 23, 2014

    In response to “because it is snowing outside,there must be no global warming”, I must reply “because the street outside my house is flat, the earth must not be round”.

    Reply
  19. How melting Arctic ice is driving harsh winters
    by Nick Breeze

    The very least ‘global warming’ could do for us is to give us warmer winters, right? Wrong, writes Nick Breeze, who met climate scientist and meteorologist Jennifer Francis in his attempt to understand the complex interactions of jet stream, polar vortex, the melting Arctic, and the extreme snowfall that’s hitting the northeast US right now.

    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/11/how-melting-arctic-ice-is-driving-harsh.html

    Reply
  20. Climate Change Threatens to Strip the Identity of Glacier National Park

    GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, Mont. — What will they call this place once the glaciers are gone?

    A century ago, this sweep of mountains on the Canadian border boasted some 150 ice sheets, many of them scores of feet thick, plastered across summits and tucked into rocky fissures high above parabolic valleys. Today, perhaps 25 survive.

    In 30 years, there may be none.

    A warming climate is melting Glacier’s glaciers, an icy retreat that promises to change not just tourists’ vistas, but also the mountains and everything around them.

    Streams fed by snowmelt are reaching peak spring flows weeks earlier than in the past, and low summer flows weeks before they used to…

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/23/us/climate-change-threatens-to-strip-the-identity-of-glacier-national-park.html?_r=0

    Reply
  21. “Purple mountains,
    magesty. Amber waves… and pass the salt.”

    Winter Road Salt – the Next Acid Rain? – May Threaten Adirondack “Queen of American Lakes”

    Tendrils of fog curl above the waters of the Queen of American Lakes, as Lake George in New York’s Adirondack Mountains is known. Biting winds gusted out of the northwest yesterday, and an early snow is forecast for tomorrow. But for this one afternoon in late fall, cold winds fetching across slate-gray waves have gone elsewhere. The queen is holding her breath, granting one last look at autumn on a day that seems suspended in time.

    Lake George is waiting, her future in question. For the first time in the history of the 32-mile-long lake – a gift from long-ago glaciers that once covered the land, then melted – our actions may have imperiled her health.

    Two centuries and more ago, it was a different picture. “Lake George is without comparison, the most beautiful water I ever saw,” wrote Thomas Jefferson in 1791. “Formed by a contour of mountains into a basin…finely interspersed with islands, its water limpid as crystal, and the mountain sides covered with rich groves…down to the water-edge.”

    Lake Developing Aquatic High Blood Pressure?

    http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2014/11/01/winter-road-salt-the-next-acid-rain-may-threaten-adirondack-queen-of-american-lakes/

    Reply
  22. Gagarin Miljkovich

     /  November 23, 2014

    If “climate change deniers” changed their mind, “turned back”, what do you think would be happening?

    Reply
    • Far less political resistance to an energy transition and active reduction of carbon emissions. Much better preparedness for climate change driven disasters in the pipe. Removal of loss of wasted resources chasing FF that, for one reason or another, simply must be stranded. Cessation of a broad based war on climate science. Overall much greater progress and advancement in energy, efficiency, resiliency and the climate and related sciences.

      Reply
  23. This is a fascinating read from HotWhopper on the recent study about volcanic aerosols having a much bigger influence post 2000 than previously thought. I posted about the paper a couple weeks ago on here. This blog post includes many other news stories about the paper. A really good read!

    Summary – volcanic neg forcing held back warming (.05 to .12 degrees). I’m not sure if that was for the decade or a longer stretch of time. This study looked at aerosols at lower altitudes that were underestimated.

    http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/11/smaller-volcanic-eruptions-helped-slow.html?spref=tw&m=1

    Reply
    • Liam

       /  November 23, 2014

      I wonder how much the ‘human volcano’ (e.g. the asia brown cloud) is also contributing. It certainly looks impressive on satellite, and is having local and regional climate effects. At the local level, some cities in China where heating coal was subsidised to keep warm in winter actually ended up much colder due to the soot.

      Reply
      • Gerald Spezio

         /  November 23, 2014

        Liam, Truly profound.
        “At the local level, some cities in China where heating coal was subsidised to keep warm in winter actually ended up much colder due to the soot.”

        Reply
    • Liam

       /  November 23, 2014

      I might have found the answer to my question –
      「5. The combined GHG and ABC forcing is 1.8 W m-2 with a 90 per cent confidence confidence interval of 0.6 – 2.4 W m-2. By comparing this with only the GHG forcing of 3 W m-2 (90 per cent interval of 2.6-3.6 W m-2), it is seen that aerosols in ABCs have masked 20 – 80 per cent of GHG forcing in the past century.」
      source: http://www.unep.org/pdf/ABCSummaryFinal.pdf

      Reply
  24. Nov 23, 3:11 PM EST
    Evacuation plans readied as Buffalo flooding looms

    BUFFALO, N.Y. (AP) — First came the big storm, then the big dig. Now comes the big melt.

    Residents of flood-prone areas around Buffalo should move valuables up from the basement, pack a bag and prepare to for the possibility of evacuation as up to 7 feet of melting snow posed the threat of flooding, Gov. Andrew Cuomo warned Sunday.

    “Err on the side of caution,” Cuomo said at a news conference in Cheektowaga. “You prepare for the worst and hope for the best, and that’s what we’re doing.”

    Across the Buffalo region – where rising temperatures were expected to approach 60 degrees on Monday – people took that advice to heart.

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_WINTRY_WEATHER?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-11-23-15-11-23

    Reply
  25. Record Drought Reveals Stunning Changes Along Colorado River
    Lake Powell is at historic lows, offering kayakers new channels to explore but raising the alarm about water.

    (Photo first — the story to follow.)
    A boat wends its way around the curves of Reflection Canyon, part of Lake Powell in Glen Canyon. The “bathtub rings” on the walls show past water levels.

    Photograph by Michael Melford, National Geographic Creative:

    Reply
    • Andy in San Diego

       /  November 24, 2014

      If you look at the lake mead & powell levels, you can see the giant water transfer. Then flip over to the snow pack above powell and you’ll see it was a bad / thin winter 2013/14 for retention.

      I would like to know the rationale in the transfer, whether it was a normal annual event or something that was decided as a must-do.

      Reply
      • They’re sitting at second lowest levels in the record for this time of year.

        As for weather… We have another huge planetary wave forming through the Barents and up past Svalbard… Very impressive in the GFS now.

        Reply
      • Randy

         /  November 24, 2014

        Andy,

        It is the High Flow Experiment that has been run for the last three years. By bringing the damn to peak power flow and then opening the lower tubes, silt is returned to the Colorado in an effort to preserve the natural beaches of the Grand Canyon. It has taken years for the Bureau of Reclamation, GC National Park, and other stake holders to make this happen. A very good thing for canyon ecology.

        Hope that helps.

        Reply
  26. 22:50 HRS 11/23/14

    Yes, and on nullschooI, I keep noticing that large blocking high still sitting off the coast of California at about 35 N, 135 W. It’s like a fortress.

    NWS has Santa Barbara, CA at 8% humidity with strong off-shore winds out of the NE.
    Portland, OR USA is now back above normal air temp. by a few degrees F. This follows a week of much below normal — which follows a whole month of 6 F above normal.

    Me thinks we will see a lot of this sort of anomaly fluctuation in this area for the foreseeable future. Other locations may be locked in?

    Reply
  27. wili

     /  November 24, 2014

    I hadn’t realized that there has also been a ‘sudden stratospheric warming’ event (SSW), something that often precedes cold snaps in lower latitudes. http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/17/polar_vortex_definition_here_s_what_s_really_happening_with_stratospheric.html

    http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,997.msg40460.html#msg40460

    And another one seems to be forming, so hang on to your (wool) hats!

    RS, is it your impression that GW is causing an increase in the frequency or intensity of SSWs?

    Reply
  28. Colorado Bob

     /  November 24, 2014

    Reindeer threatened after heavy rains in Norway freeze their food solid

    Reindeer are facing a new threat in the form of heavy winter rain which freezes to form an impenetrable layer of ice and prevents them from eating on the lichen-covered tundra, scientists said.

    Wild reindeer living on the Norwegian island archipelago of Svalbard in the Arctic suffered badly in January 2012 when up to 270mm of rain – some 70 per cent of the typical annual total – fell over a period of just two weeks, said researchers who carried out a study of the freak weather phenomenon.

    Winter rain falling instead of snow is an increasing problem for reindeer because it freezes over and prevents them from eating, said Brage Bremset Hansen of the Norwegian University of Science and Technology in Trondheim.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/reindeer-threatened-after-heavy-rains-in-norway-freeze-their-food-solid-9873862.html

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  November 24, 2014

      Warmer winter weather brings hazards but can benefit caribou

      “This warm weather is making us caribou people extremely nervous,” said Geoff Carroll, a biologist with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game in Barrow.

      “An icing situation can be the most deadly thing for caribou, but we’re not seeing the effects yet.”

      Everything the caribou eats, mostly lichen, is on the ground, and if there’s a thick layer of ice, the animals risk starvation or are easier targets for predators.

      “We’ve had years in the past when we’ve had them come through the winter and most of the caribou just look like bags of bones because of some of these icing events,” Carroll said. “If they’re really weak by the end of the winter, predation rates go up.”

      But this warm spell in the Northwest Arctic and on the Seward Peninsula might just have the opposite effect for caribou, said Kotzebue state Fish and Game biologist Jim Dau.

      Dau flew over the herd on Sunday where most are wintering on the Seward Peninsula, and he said that the weather has been warm long enough that it has melted everything almost down to the lichen. The snow that is still there isn’t a hindrance to the herd. Currently, the caribou are munching away without much trouble at all, Dau said.

      “It’s a huge relief,” he said.

      http://www.adn.com/article/20141120/warmer-winter-weather-brings-hazards-can-benefit-caribou

      Reply
  29. Mark from New England

     /  November 24, 2014

    Fossil-Fueled Republicanism – by Michael Klare:

    http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-11-23/fossil-fueled-republicanism

    Reply
  30. danabanana

     /  November 24, 2014

    “Weather Systems are Moving Backwards”

    Robert posted in July 2013. Well, that seems to be the norm now. Currently (today) there are 2 retrograde low pressure systems, one in the Atlantic and the other on the western Pacific.

    Reply
  31. Colorado Bob

     /  November 24, 2014
    Reply
  32. Colorado Bob

     /  November 24, 2014

    October 2014 Global Weather Extremes Summary

    SOUTH AMERICA and CENTRAL AMERICA

    Flooding in Honduras and Nicaragua following torrential rains on October 12th resulted in the deaths of at least 24. At Rivas, Nicaragua 378 mm (14.89”) of rain fell in 24 hours

    Remarkable heat affected Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia, and Peru during the month. An all-time record high temperature (for any month) was recorded in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 17th when the temperature reached 36.7°C (98.1°F at the official city observatory and 37.8°C (100.0°F) at Mirante e Santana, an official INMET site in the northern part of the city. Villamontes, Bolivia hit 46.2°C (115.2°F) on October 15th, just shy of the Bolivian national record of 46.7°C (116.1°F) also set at Villamontes on four previous occasions. This was also the hottest temperature anywhere measured in the world during the month. In Argentina, the temperature peaked at 46.1°C (115.0°F) on October 16th at Presidencia Roque Saenz and in Paraguay it reached 44.6°C (112.3°F) at Mariscal Estigarribia, also on October 16th. It was the worst heat wave on record in Paraguay, Mariscal Estigarribia exceeded 35°C (95°F) every day of the month (with four days of missing data).

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=316

    Reply
  33. Colorado Bob

     /  November 24, 2014

    Weather Whiplash: Floods Hit Buffalo as 62°F Temperatures Melt Huge Snowpack

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2866

    Reply
  34. Colorado Bob

     /  November 24, 2014

    Invasion of the Killer Whales
    Full Episode
    Premiere date: November 19, 2014 | 0:52:58

    A shift of power is taking place at the top of the world. The Arctic is undergoing a dramatic change, and with this change one iconic Arctic hunter may soon have to give way to another as solid ice turns to open sea. The polar bear, once king of the North, needs ice to stalk its prey. Killer whales, or orca, on the other hand, are unable to hunt in an ocean locked in ice. As the ice increasingly disappears, the tables have turned. Polar bears are struggling to survive while the now open ocean provides bountiful new hunting grounds for the whales.

    Nature on PBS

    Reply
  35. Colorado Bob

     /  November 24, 2014

    From Dr. Rood’s thread –
    181. indianrivguy
    5:41 PM GMT on November 24, 2014

    “I’m sure someone along the way found this and posted it up at some point, but it is “new” to me. As I deal with pollution, and I am always looking for ways to better control ag pollution at the source, I found this a very interesting TED Talk. I transcribed some of this to post on my FB pages, so our River Warriors can check it out. I would VERY much like to meet Miguel.”

    Chef Dan Barber

    Dan is a famous Chef. He begins talking about fish.. sustainable fish, and taste. He goes on to relate a relationship with a fish on his menu and the “fact” of the sustainable farming that made it attractive to him. When asked to speak on behalf of the Company, he asks some questions that generate answers that were/are unacceptable to him. It turns out that some 30% of the feed is chicken pellets. How is THAT sustainable? This meanders into an ecosystem discussion with farmer Miguel, in Spain that directly applies at ALL levels to “our” concerns with farming and pollution exemption policies. Anyway, I highly recommend that you listen to this.. I also noticed that the Matanzas Riverkeeper Neil Armigeon found this. There is an ecological restoration story explaining natures relationships worthy of perusal that leads to this question;
    How do we feed the world?
    Dan says, “I don’t love this question because it has determined the logic of our food system for the last 50 years. Feed grain to herbivores, pesticides to mono-culture, chemicals to soil, chicken to fish. (He opened on this subject) and all along, agribusiness has simple asked;
    “If we are feeding more people, more cheaply how terrible could that be?
    That has been the motivation and the justification… it’s been the business plan of American agriculture. We should call it what it is;
    A business in “liquidation,” a business that’s quickly eroding ecological capitol that makes that very production possible. That’s not a business, it is agriculture. Our breadbasket is threatened today not because of diminishing supply but because of diminishing resources. Not by the latest combine and tractor invention but by fertile land not by pumps but by fresh water, not by chain saws, but by forests, not by fishing boats and nets but by fish in the sea. Wanna feed the world? Let’s start by asking “how are we gunna feed ourselves? Or better, how can we create conditions that enable every community, to feed “itself” To do that, don’t look at the agribusiness model for the future. It’s really old, and its tired its high on capitol chemistry, and machines and it has never produced anything that is really good to eat. Instead, let’s look to the ecological mode that’s the one that relies on two billion years of “on the job experience” look to Miguel, and farmers like Miguel… farms that aren’t worlds unto themselves farms that restore, instead of deplete farms that farm extensively, instead of just “intensely” Farmers, that are not just producers but experts in relationships because they are the experts in flavor too.

    Renowned Chef Gets Schooled On Flavor By Farmer

    Reply
  36. Colorado Bob

     /  November 24, 2014

    They are not only stupid, they are proud of being stupid.

    Global warming cynics unmoved by extreme weather

    What will it take to convince skeptics of global warming that the phenomenon is real? Surely, many scientists believe, enough droughts, floods and heat waves will begin to change minds.

    But a new study led by a Michigan State University scholar throws cold water on that theory.

    Only 35 percent of U.S. citizens believe global warming was the main cause of the abnormally high temperatures during the winter of 2012, Aaron M. McCright and colleagues report in a paper published online today in the journal Nature Climate Change.

    Read more at: Link

    Reply
    • As long as we keep having people say ‘no single event can be directly attributed to climate change’ you’ll keep having this level of confusion. As long as we have more than 50 percent of the media actively misinforming people on climate change while another 40 percent just stands on the sidelines and under-reports or reports events without context or out of context, then we’ll keep having this kind of confusion.

      We can blame some of the problem on scientific reticence, we can blame some of the problem on the denier media, and we can blame the rest on the media that doesn’t step in and tell the whole story.

      And yes, though the statement ‘you can’t attribute any single weather event to climate change’ may be technically correct in an intellectual splitting of hairs kind of way, it basically misleads people into thinking extreme events aren’t driven by climate change. What we should be saying is that extreme events are driven by climate change, because they are.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  November 24, 2014

        Do me a big favor, log in at Dr. Roods site, and post this comment . I am so sick of this idea we don’t understand what we have done. We know we dumped more acid into our oceans than the last 300,000,000 years That’s simple chemistry. But we have know idea that this will change our world?

        This stupid idea we don’t understand our world drives me crazy . We just landed on a fucking comet, but we are still clueless about the Earth.

        The train is racing down the tracks , but wait , it’s going to stop Omaha, before crashes Chicago.

        Reply
    • It’s worth noting, Bob, that 60 percent of voters polled after this mid-term considered climate change to be a serious problem.

      Reply
      • In my view, it was the non-voters in that election that had the biggest impact.
        64 percent of the registered voters stayed home brain-dead, and did not cast a ballot.
        A mere 36.4 percent voted. What a sham, and a shame.

        For some numerical electoral shenanigans, remember that — in 2000, GW Bush beat Al Gore by a 5 to 4 Supreme Court vote. And one of the first things Bush did as Commander in Chief was to invade Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein — who had won his election by 100 percent. No lie.

        Now here we are in 2014 fighting for our basic survival in the midst of this so-called democracy.

        Keep up the fight people.

        Reply
      • Also, it looks like hundreds of millions of campaign dollars were raised, and spent, on media advertizing that basically succeeded in persuading 64 percent not to vote.
        Really.
        This does show the symbiotic relationship between politics and the media.
        Right?🙂

        Reply
        • A huge amount is related to convincing people that their vote doesn’t matter. Apathy peddling is very effective during the midterm cycle. And, in general, media coverage was terrible.

        • climatehawk1

           /  November 25, 2014

          I’ve seen some info in the past to the effect that negative ads reduce turnout (seems logical they would turn people off), and I assume Republicans have figured that out. Not sure how we move out of that sort of death spiral.

        • It’s a matter of degree. The mid term is already low turnout. And the established republican drive to reduce the size of the electorate is most effective during that period.

          When it comes to elections, trends are important, but outcomes are driven as much by action. Voters must realize that individually they have a huge impact and if they don’t turn out, they practically guarantee a republican/conservative victory.

  37. Colorado Bob

     /  November 25, 2014

    I now go to quote you. .

    Reply
  38. Apneaman

     /  November 25, 2014

    What will it take to convince skeptics of global warming that the phenomenon is real?
    A big disaster in America with plenty of destruction and many dead white middle class folks. Young blond white girls/women are the MSMs #1 stars in The hierarchy of death. It is a ratings bonanza that lasts for months. Although bringing that much attention to climate change would run counter to their wealthy ownership and advertisers long term interests (BAU), the desire for short term profit will be irresistible. Each organizations capitalist greed and careerism will cause them to fear losing out to the competition and thus give it the full spin and 24/7 coverage. It is just a matter of time. Maybe a heatwave with death tolls like the European one in 2003 or Russian one in 2010. What an absurd world.

    Reply
    • A few cracks are starting to develop. I’m cautiously encouraged by the potential transformative impact of falling solar energy prices. We have an emerging price war situation developing between renewables and FF. This hits the CG of FF political power, especially as investors are temped away from the old companies. It’s still capitalism related to a degree. But the falling base energy costs have broader benefits.

      Little moves like this can have big effect, especially when they are powerful enough to challenge some of the most deeply established and influential monopolies.

      Not a full break. But a crack or two in the storm clouds.

      Reply
  39. JimB

     /  November 25, 2014

    Fictional media may be better – last night on the HBO show ‘The Newsroom’,near the end of the show, they had an on-air interview of the acting head of the EPA (who in the show pointed out that no new head has yet been confirmed). When asked about the state of the climate, he essentially said that 20 years ago we could have done something useful, but now, taking into account all the Fossil Fuels scheduled for burning by the major energy companies, we are pretty well doomed. The anchor tried to get him to soften his position, but he refused. Don’t expect this to happen in real life.

    Reply
    • It’s imperative that those fuels aren’t burned. That’s a position of no compromise.

      Reply
      • Right, RS.
        Every person, young and old, must base their every action on if, or how much, fuel is burned by what they do — or what they cause to be burned. This must be done every minute of every day.
        Call it a cardinal imperative of survival on this orb we call Earth.
        (Cardinal imperative? … I like it. Must keep the lexicon alive in these ever changing times.)

        Reply
      • Liam

         /  November 25, 2014

        We could be lucky there on one front, The price of oil is now looking to hang around at at point where further exploration will be discouraged, but the development of alternatives will still be favourable. Signs of a transition away from it that I didn’t see even a few years ago.
        Some of the oil at least will stay in the ground.

        Reply
        • If we can drive the efficiency and EV revolution to rapidly expand, a lot of that oil will be more and more difficult to economically justify. The electricity equivalent gallon of gasoline from a solar panel is 75 cents.

          There’s still quite a lot of ground to cover, but the distance isn’t so far as it was some years ago. Nowhere near a guarantee of success, but definite progress.

          As an aside, my wife and I share a car. I’ve often wondered if many families really need two vehicles…

    • Colorado Bob

       /  November 25, 2014

      Welcome to the party.

      Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  November 25, 2014

      JimB
      I am over 65, alone , with no kids And in poor health . This gives me a certain freedom to say pretty much anything. And I am a stone cold historian.

      JimB

      When have human beings done the right thing?

      After we killed 60 million people.

      Reply
  40. Colorado Bob

     /  November 25, 2014

    Part 1 – Frank Zappa at PMRC Senate Hearing on Rock Lyrics

    Reply
  41. Kendra

     /  November 25, 2014

    Hi, my names Kendra and I live in Australia, it’s getting hotter and hotter down hear every year and we have a government in total denial, keep up your good work spread the word

    Reply
    • We suffer from similar trouble here in the US, with more than half the legislature either willfully ignorant of the problem or actively downplaying the problem.

      Reply
    • wili

       /  November 25, 2014

      Some of the hottest places in the US (OK, TX) are also some of those deepest in denial. This does not make me optimistic that extreme effects of GW (alone) will ever sway those determined to deny reality.

      Reply
  1. Buffalo’s 2014 November Snowstorm | GarryRogers Nature Conservation
  2. Buffalo’s Climate Change Driven Mega Snow-Flood | Artic Vortex
  3. Big Arctic Warm-Up To Drive Freak Thanksgiving Snowstorm For US East Coast | robertscribbler

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: