Bad Climate Outcomes — Atmospheric Warming to Ramp up as PDO Swings Strongly Positive?

Last year, quietly and without much fanfare from the mainstream press, the Pacific Ocean underwent a powerful shift. A shift from a state in which cooler surface waters absorbed atmospheric heat, to a phase in which surface water warming caused ocean heat to be transferred to the world’s already warming airs.

The shift was heralded by a powerful oceanic Kelvin Wave. One that brought warm water up from the depths and spread them across the Pacific Ocean surface. Ever since that time, warm Kelvin Waves have continued to refresh this surface water heat pool.

monster-el-nino

(Major Kelvin Wave that heralded a switch to strongly positive PDO values for the Pacific. Image source: NOAA/ESRL)

And so the Pacific Ocean surface warming continued throughout 2014.

By December, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) values, a measure directly tied to this warming, hit a new all-time record level of +2.51. That’s the highest and hottest PDO value since record-keeping began in 1900. One that only backed off slightly into January at +2.45 in the preliminary measure.

It’s a major swing in Pacific Ocean surface temperatures to a phase where more heat is dumped into the atmosphere. One that is causing some scientists to warn that a new period of rapid atmospheric warming may just be getting started.

image

(Sea surface temperature anomaly map shows very warm surface waters dominate much of the equatorial, eastern and northern Pacific in a signature that is strongly characteristic of a powerfully positive PDO on Thursday, February 26 2015. Image source: Earth Nullschool. Data Source: Global Forecast Systems Model.)

PDO and The Multi-Decadal Heat Pump

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a periodic change in sea surface temperature states in the Pacific. One that is thought by many oceanic and atmospheric researchers to have a strong influence on global weather and temperature variability.

In the negative state, PDO tends to encourage La Nina events which also coincide with a downswing in global temperatures as the vast Pacific waters take in more heat. In the positive state, PDO tends to encourage El Nino events which result in the great ocean belching heat into the air on a grand scale — pushing atmospheric temperatures higher.

All things being equal, this natural variability would pan out — marking upswings and downswings in a global average. However, human fossil fuel burning and related greenhouse gas emissions have bent this curve upward by trapping more and more heat in the lower atmosphere. So the case is now that during positive PDO phases, in which more El Ninos occur, atmospheric warming has tended to ramp drastically higher. And, consequently, during negative PDO phases, atmospheric warming has tended to merely slow down even as oceanic warming sped up.

You can see this speeding up and slowing down in the below graphic provided  by Weather Underground:

PDO vs global temperature change Weather Underground

(Global temperature change since 1900 vs phases of positive PDO [1925 to 1945 and 1975 to 1998] and negative PDO [1945 to 1975 and 1998 to 2014]. Image source: Weather Underground. Data Source: NOAA.)

In the era during which global temperatures have been increasingly driven by human greenhouse gas emissions, four phases of PDO have been recorded. Two were positive, two were negative.

In the first positive PDO phase during 1925 through 1945, global average temperatures jumped upward by about 0.5 degrees F (+0.25 F per decade). This initial surge in atmospheric warming abated as global temperatures remained roughly steady during the negative PDO period of 1945 to 1975 (+/- 0 F per decade). But by 1975, PDO values were positive again and the period through 1998 showed a rapid warming of about 0.8 F over 23 years (+0.4 F per decade). After the super El Nino of 1998, PDO values again trended negative as atmospheric warming continued at a somewhat slower pace of about +0.15 F per decade.

Global Warming and Related Ills to Ramp Up?

This underlying trend should be cause for serious concern.

The first issue is that we see warming now during negative PDO decades where we only saw cooling or zero warming before. Given the present rate of warming in the range of +0.15 F per decade during periods in which the Pacific Ocean is taking on atmospheric heat, one could expect the next positive PDO phase to see decadal warming in the range of +0.55 F or higher (or by about 1 C in 20-30 years).

Such a rapid pace of warming could challenge the fabled 2 C ‘point of no return’ before 2050 (for reference, we are at about +0.85 C above 1880s values now). And it is for this reason that some scientists are now starting to sound alarm bells.

In the recent Weather Underground commentary penned by Jeff Masters, Kevin Trenberth, an NCAR scientist and one of the world’s foremost experts on ocean temperature dynamics, noted:

“I am inclined to think the hiatus [in global temperature increases] is over, mainly based on the PDO index change. If one takes the global mean temperature from 1970 on, everything fits a linear trend quite well except 1998.”

NOAA global surface temperature anomalies

(Global surface temperature anomalies. Image source: NOAA.)

Though Trenberth does not explicitly spell out the potential for an overall warming acceleration, he does point toward a return to the +0.29 F per decade trend line seen since 1970. Meanwhile, Matthew England of the University of South Wales warned in the same Weather Underground commentary that any post ‘hiatus’ warming would be likely to be very rapid.

Dr. Michael Mann, a climate scientist of considerable fame both due to his Hockey Stick tree ring study and due to his ongoing success fighting off smear campaigns launched by climate change deniers, recently put together climate model assessments that showed world temperatures exceeding the 2 C threshold by 2036 under business as usual greenhouse gas emissions. To reach such a high reading so soon would require in excess of 1 degree Fahrenheit warming over each of the next two decades. And such a rate of warming would be very rapid indeed, unprecedentedly rapid and well outside the linear trend line from 1970.

Michael Mann today made related comments at Realclimate on the more recent oscillations in Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature:

There is the possibility that internal, natural oscillations in temperature may have masked some surface warming in recent decades, much as an outbreak of Arctic air can mask the seasonal warming of spring during a late season cold snap. One could call it a global warming “speed bump”. In fact, I have… Given the pattern of past historical variation, this trend will likely reverse with internal variability, instead adding to anthropogenic warming in the coming decades. That is perhaps the most worrying implication of our study, for it implies that the “false pause” may simply have been a cause for false complacency, when it comes to averting dangerous climate change.

To these points, it is worth noting that any rate of warming above 0.3 F (0.2 C) per decade is extraordinary and terrifying. Such a rate is enough to achieve post ice age warming of 4 C in merely 2 centuries where it took 10,000 years to achieve such warming before. Warming at 0.4, 0.6 or 1 F per decade would be both drastic and devastating to current climates, geophysical stability, weather stability, glacial stability, water security, food security, and ocean health. In the current world, already warmed by about 0.85 C above 1880s levels any acceleration to current warming is a rather bad outcome on top of an already dangerous situation.

Links:

Are We Entering a New Period of Rapid Global Warming?

Climate Oscillations and the Global Warming Faux Pause

NOAA’s National Climate Data Center

NOAA’s Earth Systems Research Lab

Monster El Nino Emerging From the Depths?

Far Worse Than Being Beaten With a Hockey Stick: Michael Mann Climate Model Shows 2 C Warming by 2036

Global Warming Speed Bump? The Answer May be Blowing in the Wind.

Earth Nullschool

Global Forecast Systems Model

Hat Tip to Colorado Bob

Hat Tip to Bassman

Leave a comment

106 Comments

  1. james cole

     /  February 26, 2015

    This is a timely article, as I just left off reading a headline like this ” OSLO (Reuters) – A natural cooling of the Pacific Ocean has contributed to slow global warming in the past decade but the pause is unlikely to last much longer, U.S. scientists said on Thursday”

    The Pacific has been a giant heat sink, taking up warming and storing it below the surface water for a long time. It stands to reason when this heat is forced back to the surface, it will set off some global warming, the kind people seem to care most about, air temperatures.
    So is it safe to assume all these newly added energy to the atmosphere is going to trigger some epic weather events. And what do you foretell for the Jet Stream in near future?

    Reply
    • I’d say the RRR is related to the current positive PDO as is the warm air invasion of the Arctic over Alaska and the Bering. That, of course, has also contributed to trough development over Eastern Canada and the U.S. during winter. Related El Niño should flatten things out a bit as the West Coast is hammered with rain.

      In general, all patterns shift somewhat northward in the west. So Mexico dryness invades the Southwest even as increased rates of evaporation magnify the whole problem. For the North Atlantic, weather swings will be radical.

      But the new climate is a rough one for prediction😉 ask Griffon about the nor’easter call for this winter in the northeastern US…

      Reply
      • Griffin

         /  February 26, 2015

        If you only knew how many times I have mentioned your prediction of the storm tracks this winter! You nailed way back before anything even got going!

        Reply
  2. dnem

     /  February 26, 2015

    All-in-all sooner is better than later. The longer heat gets “hidden” in the oceans, the longer the forces of denial can forestall the necessary human response. A large transfer of heat to the atmosphere, where people will notice it, is good news IMO. It’s not like the extra heat that’s been getting packed away in the system will go away.

    Reply
  3. I wouldn’t call it good news, even if it is inevitable.

    As for another arrow in the quiver for fighting the deniers… They have no rational leg to stand on now. A crumbling edifice built by fossil fuel advertising, media, political, and research grant money aimed at keeping the waters muddy indefinitely. What’s a few more stark facts to these fools?

    Reply
    • mikkel

       /  February 26, 2015

      I think that’s the wrong way to look at it. When you argue with someone, it should rarely be to convince them and more often to convince those with open minds around them. You are correct that right now those bystanders are just about to reject the hold that the deniers have, but a quick jolt will finish the job. Then there will be such a mass movement that any confabulation will bring vengeance.

      That said, I think the new denierism will very rapidly switch to how effective and cheap geoengineering will be if only we don’t disrupt the economy. I fear it will be very effective.

      Reply
      • I hope so. There does appear to be a growing wave of unrest over a general failure to respond to climate change. And you’re absolutely right about the geo-engineering sell that is coming. Ugly. And all to keep neo-liberalism alive.

        Reply
      • mikkel

         /  February 26, 2015

        I should say I’m very glad that you are so vociferous against it. I am seeing more and more people who genuinely understand the impacts and want to see carbon emissions rapidly decrease inadvertently contributing to an environment that will make the geoengineering snake oil go down very easily.

        http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/02/24/free_air_carbon_capture_a_climate_engineering_idea_worth_considering.html

        I know Holthaus is a good guy, but just look at how that article is constructed. It’s all shiny and savior at the top (and WTF does AI have to do with carbon capture?) and it’s only a tiny footnote at the very end where he says, “But that doesn’t mean this technology is a get-out-of-jail-free card for current emissions. The oceans are an excellent storage facility for heat and carbon—warming seas are already irreversibly melting Antarctic glaciers from beneath, and it’s important to stop emitting new carbon into the atmosphere as soon as possible to limit further impacts.”

        Reply
      • Read the article and it seems to be unduly optimistic. Some tech is useful. Some tech is harmful. And it is for this reason that we should not have blind faith in positive outcomes. Rather, we should push for the best outcomes using the least harmful tools at our disposal.

        I don’t put atmospheric carbon capture in the same boat as the horrific solar radiation management. But the best and most economic methods for atmospheric capture remain as positive changes to land management. Overall, rapid reduction of carbon emissions through efficiency, reductions in fossil fuel use, and a switch to renewables remains the absolute best option and should be front and center.

        There is no wiz-bang techno fix for atmospheric carbon capture at this point and we’d expect such efforts to be high cost for at least the next two decades. At 600 dollars per ton, the cost to capture just 10 percent of the human emission is 600 billion dollars each year. A similar investment in renewables would be far more effective as it would ultimately replace fossil fuels altogether. To be practical and useful, the price would have to fall to less than 60 dollars per ton. And if we use the same rate that applied to solar energy (with no practical reason to believe costs would fall so rapidly), that’s 30 years away.

        Comparing this materials tech to solar is a bit of a losing option. For one, solar can scale off existing electronics infrastructure and has numerous synergies that allow it to do so. This tech does not benefit in a similar fashion. In addition, solar energy was always useful to certain customers. So it could feed in, finding new markets, and scale over time.

        What market do we have now for a 600 dollar per ton carbon capture system? Not even one in space..,

        Finally, the article claims that a price on carbon would be needed to spur the use of this version of carbon capture. But any higher price on carbon would already push fossil fuels off the market in favor of increasingly competitive renewables. In this light, we should see fossil fuels as not economical in any practical sense. Especially if it relies on costly atmospheric carbon capture as life support.

        We will probably have to spend lots of money to pull carbon out of the atmosphere eventually. But the best thing we could do now is not put more there in the first place.

        Reply
      • mikkel

         /  February 26, 2015

        Right. CC definitely shouldn’t be off the table but like you said, that means we should focus on land management, which not only is more effective but addresses so many other ills like biodiversity, topsoil loss, etc.

        And even from a complete economics/high tech perspective, you’re spot on about alternatives.

        Being boxed in by cognitive framing of neoliberalism and tech saviorness, that article gives the impression that it is our primary hope and therefore helps profligate the interests of people who seek to exploit others…even though I am totally convinced that Holthaus isn’t one of them.

        I feel like there needs to be a movement of conferences that help scientists and engineers understand psychological framing, value systems and propaganda, so that they can actively seek to avoid giving subconscious impressions that they are unaware of.

        Reply
      • wili

         /  February 27, 2015

        But to put $600 billion per year in perspective:

        >>the world currently wastes $300 billion of food per year and by 2030 (when the middle class doubles) we will waste $600 billion per year (all of which contributes to GHG emissions when it rots)

        http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/26/3627531/wasting-food-expensive-bad-for-climate/

        Reply
      • True. But the money would be far better spent on renewables. 600 GW per year goes a long way to shutting down the coal plants that create the problem in the first place.

        Reply
    • dnem

       /  February 26, 2015

      Of course. “Good news” with a sense of resigned irony. But Heat is heat, and it might as well show up where it will (might help?) get humanity off its arse.

      Reply
  4. mikkel

     /  February 26, 2015

    For about 7 years, I’ve been expecting 2015 would be the PDO flip due to Mojib Latif’s work — which has turned out to model this whole current phase almost perfectly (slightly on the cool side due to the very warm 98 setting a higher baseline than his moel http://d35brb9zkkbdsd.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/Nature5-1.jpg).

    The graph is weird…it’s the averaged 10 year period, +/- 5 years centered around the year listed. So 2010 = 2005-2015. Overall, it suggests this next PDO phase will lead to 0.6C temperature increase.

    However, it’s also based on A1B, and surely does not take into account the typical missing feedbacks (methane, extreme albedo decrease, etc) so I would tend to agree that Mann is correct…which is wow.

    I will be very glad if it starts now. Of course it’ll be immensely painful, but there was a chance the PDO would be negative for another 10 years and that’d be nearly unimaginable. If we jump in warming over 0.5F in a few years that should finally kill off any pure denial’s impact on the vast majority…then it’ll just be about argument of what to do.

    Reply
    • I hope that’s the case. These guys have proven to be able to sew confusion and misinformation memes across broad segments. Would we expect, for example, Fox News to grow a conscience and start reporting climate change? And how many more allegations of fraud by respected climate agencies must we endure? Will each new record year bring cries of ‘lies’ from the fossil media empire? And would people be wise enough to turn away in disgust?

      I hope so.

      Reply
      • climatehawk1

         /  February 26, 2015

        No on Fox News, they have already proven there is no limit to their willingness to lie. But yes, I’m optimistic about the weather changing the public discussion. We have been singularly unlucky so far, both with the overall slowdown in surface temperature increase and with the cool winters in the U.S. Northeast. Without those to flog, it becomes much harder to make the denial case. (Oh, and the concurrent slowdown in Atlantic hurricane activity.)

        Reply
      • Andy in San Diego

         /  February 27, 2015

        “Would we expect, for example, Fox News to grow a conscience and start reporting climate change? ”

        Only if climate change was a Republican guy running for office, hated Obama, gave intellectual wasteland soundbites, ignored reality, hated science and paid good advertising.

        Reply
      • Doesn’t help much when there is a “Senator with a snowball” in office too. Love this talk by Whitehouse:

        Reply
  5. Leif Knutsen

     /  February 26, 2015

    I can envision that the surface waters of the ocean getting so warm that the normal upwelling caused by winds and bottom topography will not be able to break through to bring normal nutrient cold waters from the depths. Those waters feed the bait fish such as sardines, herring, krill and the phytoplankton that feed all. There has been a mass die off of birds and sea lion pups, (apparently starvation), as well as sardines & starfish this last year. Connections?

    Reply
    • Sounds like a stratified ocean state to me. Looks like this is my next article. Thanks, Lief.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  February 27, 2015

        And all the strange animal stories coming from the West Coast for over the last year.
        Humbolt squid off Vancouver Island , the sea star collapse , large schools of bait fish dying in inshore waters, starving sea lion pups.

        Just off the top of my head. None of which watch Fox News, or vote Republican.

        Reply
      • Bob– I am going through all you’ve posted as a refresher now. Please feel free to link more. I made about 20 phone calls to marine science agencies RE stratification and haven’t gotten much but standard PR officer replies. There’s something big going on with EPAC and we’re going to get to the bottom of it.

        Reply
    • Griffin

       /  February 26, 2015

      Your connection may be underway off the coast of California. Sad reports of malnourished Sea Lions popping up all over.

      Reply
      • You’ve got it, Griff. If we have anoxic bottom conditions, that kills a lot of the animals along the food chain. The stress just ripples along until you have problems with otters and sea lions.

        Reply
  6. Michael Mann just added to the discussion with a new post highly relevant to this post.

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/02/climate-oscillations-and-the-global-warming-faux-pause/

    The new study he references combines AMO and PDO to show just how severe natural forcings have held back warming recently.

    Reply
  7. Griffin

     /  February 26, 2015

    Robert, I know that this is akin to asking about a zit on the face of a man with a massive head injury but since we are talking about SST’s, I have a question. I have been noticing on Climate Reanlyzer, SST positive anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico just south of LA. Could this be from the warmer than average discharge from the Mississippi River that drains the rivers of the much warmer than average western US?

    Reply
    • Absolutely. Might also be preferential due to the fact that rivers in the east feeding the Mississippi are somewhat clogged and frozen at the moment. River shows dipole?

      Reply
  8. Greg

     /  February 27, 2015

    For me the number that keeps haunting me is 4 Hiroshima bombs per second of additional energy to the system (with some estimates of up to 12 per second). That energy, like Godzilla, is a monster we created that is emerging from the deep oceans. As I turn on the stove to heat a quart of water for my son’s macaroni and cheese, and he waits impatiently for the water to heat up over the red hot coils, I think to myself, wow water holds a LOT of unseen energy. Oh, there it goes now finally, its boiling, and the vapors are showing themselves. My son is smiling but I am not.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  February 27, 2015

      Greg
      Kiss your kid on the forehead, and say, “Son I’m about to teach you about thermodynamics”.

      Your story is at the heart of the unseen problem we have, It’s phase changes that water goes through. Water is like copper wire in the grid. It carries heat around like the electricity in the wire , The phase changes are like transformers .

      When it comes to measuring heat that things can hold, water is the baseline it has a value of #1. There are handful on things above #1 , and they all use a phase change like water to store more heat than water .
      But everything in nature is way below #1. You want to build thermal solar battery for your house ? Don’t use granite rocks. bury a large tank of water in the ground. The thermal mass of rocks really sucks .

      Reply
      • Greg

         /  February 27, 2015

        Thank you Bob. Glad to see you and Robert kicking the ball back again on this cyberspace field where it feels green and cozy in a Fox filled world.

        Reply
  9. Great stuff. Also interested in the ‘other variable’, that off aerosol cooling. As I understand it both the “hiatus periods” mid 40s to late 60s and 2000-2012 (more or less) coincided with two major ramp-ups of aerosol pollution – the first from post WW2 industrial explosion the West and the second from the “Chinese Explosion”. I know research has been done and some rather significant dampening has been attributed to the aeorosols.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  February 27, 2015

      I would add a time frame from 1850 to 1920 , when everything the was poorly combusted soot .
      Did that kill the Little Ice Age ? Not CO2 , but just large black aerosol pollution for 70 years.

      Reply
  10. Colorado Bob

     /  February 27, 2015

    The deniers are claiming that the Blow Outs in Siberia are “pingos”. Here’s handy diagram of Pingo –

    Reply
    • wili

       /  February 27, 2015

      Pingos are a well studied feature of that landscape, and they don’t leave perfect craters like that, according to the folks that have known and studies them for decades. It also doesn’t explain the high levels of methane in the bottom.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  February 27, 2015

        Yep . But deniers are always always looking for some hook to hang their hat.

        “It also doesn’t explain the high levels of methane in the bottom.”

        Perfect point .

        Reply
    • It’s like a pingo, except you replace the ice with destabilized hydrate gas… And then you get an explosive ejection of Earth. All together with a nice hole in the ground for a climate change denier to stick his head into…

      Reply
  11. wili

     /  February 27, 2015

    A bit off topic, but possibly a fairly major development if confirmed: China’s coal use _dropped_ by 2.9 % last year, and its total CO2 emissions also fell by 7%:
    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/26/3627490/china-coal-peak/

    http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/02/official-data-confirms-chinese-coal-use-fell-in-2014/

    Reply
  12. wili

     /  February 27, 2015

    A bit off topic, but possibly a fairly major development if confirmed: China’s coal use _dropped_ by 2.9 % last year, and its total CO2 emissions also fell by 7%:

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/26/3627490/china-coal-peak/

    Reply
  13. Colorado Bob

     /  February 27, 2015

    The deniers are claiming that the Blow Outs in Siberia are “pingos”. Here’s handy diagram of Pingo –

    Pingos are “free” water made from the freeze thaw cycle over decades they are wedges of ice being forced up by this cycle .

    They are not explosions , that happens in seconds. It takes years to make pingo.

    Like all denier BS , they will claim this is not new. But satellite work has revealed , in the last 3 hot summers in Siberia. These carters are very new .

    These are truly new features on the landscape of Siberia. The rain deer herders have never seen them.

    This part of Russia is about to come to the debate on Climate Change in a big way . It’s really hard to run the modern world , if the ground explodes under your natural gas plants.

    Reply
  14. doug

     /  February 27, 2015

    “Dr. Michael Mann, a climate scientist of considerable fame both due to his Hockey Stick tree ring study and due to his ongoing success fighting off smear campaigns launched by climate change deniers, recently put together climate model assessments that showed world temperatures exceeding the 2 C threshold by 2036 under business as usual greenhouse gas emissions”.

    Do people realize that 2036 is on 21 years away??

    Twenty One years ago to be seems like only a blink in the eye. With Mann’s track record I bet he’ll be proven right.

    21 years…

    Reply
  15. But I should proof read more carefully before posting. That was suppose to read, Twenty One years ago seems to me like only a blink of the eye.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  February 27, 2015

      “Twenty One years ago seems to me like only a blink of the eye.”

      As far the Earth goes , it’s an electron orbiting an atom for one trip in the orbit .

      And that is a poor way to explain deep time.

      Our entire effort will be less than 1/2 in. of the rock record.

      Reply
  16. I still think these near term extinction people are off base as far as the human race, but near term social chaos seems almost inevitable. Or maybe humanity will surprise us and have an awakening of consciousness.

    Reply
    • That’s what I would hope for, Doug. A 180 degree turn away from the present course. Rapid jettisoning of fossil fuels and related harmful practices. Resources provided for the vast species support efforts we will need in the coming decades. And a new appreciation of the simple fact that what we decide to do as a civilization matters in the most important way possible.

      Reply
    • Doug – I tend to agree with you with one caveat and it is a huge one: if the chaos that ensues results in some of the over 400 nuclear power plants around the world lapsing in the extremely high, hands-on oversight that they need…..well, that would obviously put everything “on the table”.

      Reply
  17. My fourth in a row and last post on this. I am in my early 50’s and realize in twenty one years most of my life will be over. I wonder what it’s like for people in their 20’s who understand this stuff? I hesitate to bring this subject up with people that age or younger. I just can’t do that to them. What must they be thinking?

    Reply
  18. Colorado Bob

     /  February 27, 2015

    The deniers are claiming that the Blow Outs in Siberia are “pingos”. Here’s handy diagram of Pingo –

    http://content.answers.com/main/content/img/oxfor d/Oxford_Geography/0198606737.pingo.2.jpg

    Pingos are “free” water made from the freeze thaw cycle over decades they are wedges of ice being forced up by this cycle .

    They are not explosions , that happens in seconds. It takes years to make pingo.

    Like all denier BS , they will claim this is not new. But satellite work has revealed , in the last 3 hot summers in Siberia. These carters are very new .

    These are truly new features on the landscape of Siberia. The rain deer herders have never seen them.

    This part of Russia is about to come to the debate on Climate Change in a big way . It’s really hard to run the modern world , if the ground explodes under your natural gas plants.

    Reply
  19. Colorado Bob

     /  February 27, 2015

    This part of Russia is about to come to the debate on Climate Change in a big way . It’s really hard to run the modern world , if the ground explodes under your natural gas plants.

    Reply
  20. Colorado Bob

     /  February 27, 2015

    As certain irony no one has fresh water in Brazil , and gas explosions In Siberia threaten Russia.

    The gas leader, and water leader, are under attack.

    “It’s Wild Time”

    Jefferson Airplane –
    “I ‘am doing things that don’t have a name yet”.

    44 years ago. .

    Reply
  21. Colorado Bob

     /  February 27, 2015

    I spent time with Tom Maston , he wrote “How Do You Feel” on the first Jefferson Airplane that made big money.

    He drank 2 bottles of Ripple in 20 min, he was done.

    No one ever wrote sweeter song .

    Reply
  22. Colorado Bob

     /  February 27, 2015

    We met at the Wheel Bar in downtown Estes Park. They have been open everyday except Christmas since 1946. That’s buried in the pavement as you enter the Wheel Bar.

    Tom was a wonderful soul.

    Sorry I’m an old man , and tend to drift off topic.

    Reply
  23. Greg

     /  February 27, 2015

    Not sure if there is any real way to make a connection, though I know there are papers out there linking Amazon hydrology to the Midwest’s climate, but here’s an update on Sao Paulo, from Hell to High Water today:

    http://rt.com/in-motion/235647-brazil-heavy-rains-flood/

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  February 27, 2015

      As system moves to a tipping point it , it moves to the extremes.

      Reply
  24. pccp82

     /  February 27, 2015

    im 33, and I look on with a morbid curiosity. I wouldn’t call myself an expert in this stuff, but I think of myself as enough of a yeoman that I can grasp the concepts as presented….

    is there any reason what so ever to think that these methane release events wont accelerate?

    also, is there any evidence of this happening in North America, or is there something unique about the locations in which they are being discovered now?

    Reply
    • No evidence of this happening in North America yet that I’m aware of.

      The vulnerable regions appear to be submerged and recently submerged Permafrost zones with relic hydrate deposits. ESAS and the bulk of extreme north western Siberia is the prime area of concern. Temperatures there are rising very rapidly and so these kinds of events are at risk of multiplying.

      Smaller areas in NWT Canada share similar features, especially on the Mackenzie Delta region. Rate of warming there has been a little bit slower than in sections of Siberia. But it will bear watching.

      Reply
  25. Colorado Bob

     /  February 27, 2015

    Jefferson Airplane – Volunteers

    Reply
  26. Colorado Bob

     /  February 27, 2015

    Jefferson Airplane – Wild Tyme

    “I’m doing things that haven’t got a name yet.”

    Reply
  27. Colorado Bob

     /  February 27, 2015

    Before they hired Grace Slick –

    Jefferson Airplane “Tobacco Road”

    I bought this album at Sears.

    Reply
  28. Colorado Bob

     /  February 27, 2015

    The real deal –
    Tobacco Road-The Nashville Teens-1964

    I bought this album at Sears as well.

    Reply
  29. eleggua

     /  February 27, 2015

    ‘Most Americans see combating climate change as a moral duty’

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/27/us-usa-climate-poll-idUSKBN0LV0CV20150227

    Reply
  30. eleggua

     /  February 27, 2015

    ‘Felling of tropical trees has not slowed, like the UN claims, it has soared’

    http://www.sciencecodex.com/felling_of_tropical_trees_has_soared_satellite_shows_not_slowed_as_un_study_found-151620

    Reply
  31. eleggua

     /  February 27, 2015

    ‘Killer frog disease: Chytrid fungus hits Madagascar ‘
    26 February 2015
    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-31645122

    Reply
  32. eleggua

     /  February 27, 2015

    ‘Climate change may boost frog disease chytridiomycosis’
    12 August 2012

    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19199197

    Reply
  33. Kevin Jones

     /  February 27, 2015

    Hate to sound like a broken record–a stuck jet stream, but Keene NH: 1F….Barrow, Alaska (out at the observatory) wind North at 19mph. Temp. 30F

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  February 27, 2015

      The recent temperature anomaly maps over at Climate Reanalyzer have been stunning. Eastern North America is one of the *relatively* coldest places on Earth. Mother Nature isn’t helping her cause if she wants to convince idiot deniers, but then the switch to a positive PDO, as Robert’s article describes, may give some of them pause once it ramps up.

      I see next week will warm up for New England with highs in the 30s (F). Bathing suit weather.

      Reply
    • I’m in CT and with just one day left in Feb and we have a new record for coldest Feb and coldest month overall with 16.1 being the average temp, beating the previous record by .4 degrees F. We’ve dipped below zero 11 times this month. The worst part of it all-the ignorant deniers around here seem to think cold temps in .01% of the Earth’s surface somehow disproves the reality of AGW, and they’re as obnoxious as ever. My head’s going to explode!!

      Reply
  34. Kevin Jones

     /  February 27, 2015

    …..both temps at 6:30 a.m. EST

    Reply
  35. Kevin Jones

     /  February 27, 2015

    …doubt the wind direction was North at Barrow….Kotzebue hit 32F with +30mph SSW gusts…2AM AKST

    Reply
    • Very strong south to north meridional surface flow through to that region over the past few days. Jet stream wave at this time is classic very high amplitude pattern — ridge west, trough east.

      Reply
  36. Greg

     /  February 27, 2015

    I found this article fascinating. Almeria, in Southern Spain has, inadvertently, cooled their local climate while building food resilience through a tremendous greenhouse program encompassing now over 26,000 hectares:

    http://geographyfieldwork.com/AlmeriaClimateChange.htm

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  February 27, 2015

      Apparently not so good for the local bell pepper crops.

      http://www.freshplaza.com/article/135954/Quality-bell-peppers-Almeria-stable
      Publication date: 2/27/2015
      “Mainly healthy crops now as well then, and yet cultivation-wise things aren’t going so well as last year. The temperatures have been lower than last year all winter. During the last planting in November and December, that temperature clearly played a part. Fewer young fruits are hanging from the plants than last year, and fruits that are there, often have abnormalities in shape or so-called sheep’s heads. The fruit load is lower anyway, because the planting stopped earlier. Mid-January, the most prevalent fruit load was around 17 fruits/m2. The fruit weight was well over 200 grammes for most varieties.”

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  February 27, 2015

      ‘Amazing Aerial Photos of Greenhouses Blanketing the Spanish Landscape’
      2/03/15
      http://gizmodo.com/amazing-aerial-photos-of-greenhouses-blanketing-the-spa-1683506499
      His trips through the Almería region of Spain are some of the most striking. The coverings over the crops of fruits and vegetables create a surface that resembles some sort of incredible futuristic cityscape.

      Reply
    • Incredible…

      Reply
  37. eleggua

     /  February 27, 2015

    A few other interesting items from Spain.

    ‘The Spanish Climate Is Becoming African, Warns Un Expert’
    Tourism and the economy as a whole are in severe danger unless the process is halted
    http://spanishnewstoday.com/the-spanish-climate-is-becoming-african-warns-un-expert-_19718-a.html#.VPC2S7YzjTY
    03/04/2014

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  February 27, 2015

      ‘Biggest Wave Ever Recorded Off Spanish Coastline’
      23/10/2014
      http://spanishnewstoday.com/biggest-wave-ever-recorded-off-spanish-coastline_20547-a.html#.VPC357YzjTY
      Here in Spain there are statistics for absolutely everything and in mindboggling detail, and the size of one wave was highlighted as an example of how weather extremes are becoming even more extreme. This one wave measured a whopping 27.81 metres high and was recorded on 6th January this year. This is comfortably higher than the previous record of 26.13 metres which was set at the Augusto Gonzalez Linares buoy near Santander on 24th January 2009, during the Klaus explosive cyclogenesis.

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  February 27, 2015

        ‘New Wave Powered Generator Under Trial Off Spanish Coastline’
        21/03/2014
        http://spanishnewstoday.com/new-wave-powered-generator-under-trial-off-spanish-coastline_19650-a.html#.VPC2sLYzjTY

        The Undigen converter, which measures 30 metres in length and weighs 140 tons, consists of a float, a central core over which the waves move the float and a converter which transforms this movement into electricity, and the Ciemat and Plocan organizations carrying out the tests are hopeful that they will lead to a 100% Spanish pilot wave-powered electricity plant in the future. In the longer term, this could be the precursor of future installations supplying power to islands and isolated coastal areas.

        Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  February 27, 2015

      Eleggua,

      Yes, from the projected Palmer Drought Severity Index maps for the second half of this century, Spain looks like it will become an extension of the Sahara. Surely there must be people in high levels there who understand the drying trend is long term. Any public discussion about it?

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  February 28, 2015

        ‘Spain faces growing desertification’
        Federal system and agencies struggle to meet water shortages
        February 2, 2009
        http://www.forumfed.org/en/products/magazine/vol8_num1/spain.php

        “The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain,” or so the song goes. Well, not anymore. Spain is one of the countries most deeply affected by climate change. Vast areas in the Communities of Murcia, Andalucía and Valencia are slowly but surely becoming desert. There are several reasons for this.

        The first, which is quite obvious, is climate change. The average temperature in Spain has increased 2.7 degrees Celsius since 1880, compared with the 1.4 degrees globally recorded for that period. Other estimates include a projection published by the United Nations suggesting that rainfall will fall about 40 per cent by 2070.

        Another reason for the growing scarcity of water is the irresponsible use of resources in Spain, including the use of more than 80 per cent of water resources for farming. Irrigation-based farming produces higher yields and is very profitable for farmers (who pay discounted rates for water), so it is very widely practised…

        (^^^shades of Sao Paulo^^^)

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  February 28, 2015

        ‘The World Bank promotes The Green Deserts project’
        15.05.2013
        “The World Bank showed their interest in the Green Deserts project and especially in the video of “Reforestation with schools in Sant Boi de Llobregat-Viladecans”. As a result, they asked us to write a blog entry for their portal Connect4Climate. Here you can read the result of this blog: ”

        http://thegreendeserts.com/news-life/the-world-bank-promotes-green-desert-project-396.html

        Reply
  38. Son House
    “Levee Camp Blues”
    The blues as a response to the existential threat of slavery and violent racism in the United States of America. Listen, and feel it. And make your own song of the blues.

    Reply
  39. Reblogged this on jpratt27.

    Reply
  40. wili

     /  February 28, 2015

    RS: It’s already nearly a year old, but you might want to add this rlevant SA piece by Mann to your excellent list at the bottom of your excellent article: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-will-cross-the-climate-danger-threshold-by-2036/

    (To my beloved fellow posters: I love music and musicians as much as the next guy, but could we please have a moratorium on posting videos here; they can really slow down the loading time, and that gets bad when robert goes away and the posts add up to the many hundreds. Thanks.)

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  February 28, 2015

      Agree.

      Since the youtube vids are being pulled from another site they hog up os memory, making for loooong load times, and sometimes freezing the browser here and requiring ‘force quit’.

      Please consider. Thanks.

      Reply
  41. Please consider Radio Ecoshock as a resource for many of the issues raised here. Last week my guest was Michael Mann. This week’s it’s Jennifer Francis (on Jet Stream changes due to Arctic warming). Next week I have a Russian scientists on melting permafrost, plus Robert Nicholls on what the IPCC doesn’t tell you about global warming. Access the whole program, or just the interviews your want, from my weekly show blog published at ecoshock.info every Wednesday.
    I’m working on a special on planetary albedo and solar radiation management, due in a couple of weeks.
    Alex Smith
    Radio Ecoshock
    P.S. Robert Scribbler – I still want to interview you again for the show. Please get in touch via email, and let’s see what we can set up. This article on the PDO would be great and helpful for our listeners, for example.

    Reply
    • Fantastic, Alex. Sounds like a great program! You pose such wonderful questions. Can’t wait to see what you do with Francis and Mann!

      Please feel free to post links here.

      I will fire off an email to you tomorrow RE a talk tomorrow.

      Reply
    • climatehawk1

       /  March 7, 2015

      >>”Please consider Radio Ecoshock as a resource for many of the issues raised here.”

      Thanks. Have added your blog to my blogroll at http://itsburning.blogspot.com . Items from the blogroll frequently find their way into my tweets as well.🙂

      Reply
  1. Bad Climate Outcomes — Atmospheric Warming to Ramp up as PDO Swings Strongly Positive? | GarryRogers Nature Conservation
  2. 2015 El Nino to Bring Back-to-Back Hottest Years on Record? | robertscribbler
  3. Weird 2015 El Nino Fed By Strong West Winds, Growing Kelvin Wave | robertscribbler
  4. Onrush of Second Monster Kelvin Wave Raises Specter of 2015 Super El Nino | robertscribbler

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: