“Dramatic Thinning” — Arctic Sea Ice Enters Record Low Territory as Northern Polar Region Heats Up

The Arctic sea ice is melting. It is melting far more rapidly than ever expected.

This loss is measured in the form of square kilometers melted, in the form of ice thinned, in the form of new, blue water visible. Yet it is a loss beyond mere numbers and measures. A loss that has a profound impact to the Earth and its climate systems.

Weather patterns, the rate of warming in the Arctic, the rate of tundra melt, seabed warming, and carbon store release. The rate of glacial loss in Greenland. All are impacted by sea ice loss and related ocean warming.

And today, we mark another new record low. The most recent in a long series, with likely many more thinning ice days to come.

*   *   *   *

Earlier this week there were indications that Arctic sea ice extent may begin exploring new record low values in the Wednesday through Friday timeframe. And the March 4 measure finds NSIDC values sliding below previous records for the date set just 8 years ago.

Ever since Monday, extent values have been falling by an average rate of 10,000 square kilometers each day. A steady progression of warm air fronts through the Barents coupled with well above average temperatures in the Bering and near Alaska region have generated heat pressure along the ice edge and well into the Central Arctic.

As of today, we have extreme temperature departures in the range of +20 degrees Celsius above average in the Barents northward through to the polar zone. From the Bering through Alaska and into the Southern Beaufort near the Mackenzie Delta departures are in the range of +5 to +20 C above average.

global surface temperature anomaly March 5

(Polar amplification seen ramping up today in the GFS model analysis provided by Climate Reanalyzer. Exceptional warming of +20 above average occurred in vulnerable sea ice edge regions as extent values dropped to new record lows. Image source: The University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer)

These two hot spots, together with another warm pool over Greenland have shoved the Arctic, as a whole, into the +2 C range. A rather high departure that is only forecast to worsen in the GFS model summary over the coming days.

The added warmth, wind, and waves in these ice edge regions drove these extent losses and now, as of Wednesday, values had fallen to 14,383,000 square kilometers. By comparison the previous record low for the day in 2006 was 14,411,000 square kilometers, so the new record is 28,000 square kilometers lower. An area approximately the size of the State of Maryland. 2011 now comes in as third lowest for the day at 14,451,000 square kilometers or 68,000 square kilometers above the 2015 value.

Go back 30 years and the contrast is even more stunning with 1979 extent values for March 4 at 16,514,000 square kilometers. This places the new record fully 2,131,000 square kilometers lower than sea ice extent measures for the same date 36 years ago. A total loss of ice coverage roughly equal to Greenland (2,166,000 square kilometers).

chart(2)

(Sea ice extent for March 5 of 2015 [bottom blue line] drops to record low levels in the NSIDC measure. The other record low years for the date — 2006 [pink] and 2011 [orange] — are provided for reference along with 1979 [top blue line]. Image source: National Snow and Ice Data Center.)

But given the current time of year, a period where ice at low levels has tended to rebound, and given the fact that we are facing growing warmth in key ice edge regions, there is risk that record losses will continue to mount over the coming days.

GFS forecast models show warm fronts continuing to advance along a very strong south to north wind pattern stretching across most of the Atlantic. A wind pattern that today pulls tropical air off the underbelly of a high pressure system just north of Jamaica, funnels this warm air north and eastward over the currents of the Gulf Stream, dumps the flow into a raging low pressure (at 950 mb) just south of Greenland which then shoves the flow into a gale raging north of Scandinavia and south of Svalbard. A strong warm frontal boundary following in the wake of the most recent warm air invasion that, yesterday, swept past the pole.

It’s a meridional pattern stretching from 20 North Latitude in the Tropical Atlantic all the way to 90 North Latitude at the pole. One that features a contiguous frontal boundary stretching from Yucatan Mexico to halfway between Svalbard and Iceland along a daisy chain of lows south and east of Greenland. A flow that is complicit in both melt along the borders of the Barents and ice thinning in the Kara and on past the 80 North Latitude line in the Arctic Ocean.

image

(Amazingly vast frontal system and meridional pattern stretching from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, across the North Atlantic and on into the Arctic. Reference point at 55.6 N and 34.6 W shows storm force winds proceeding almost due south to north. Screen capture in real time at 2:51 PM EST March 5, 2015. Image source: Earth Nullschool. Data  Source: Global Forecast System Model.)

This fire hose of warm air pouring up from the Atlantic will intensify over coming days as it fills the bowl of the Barents with heat, which GFS is predicting will balloon northward over the pole. By Sunday the temperature departures are predicted to peak in an extreme +4 C for the entire Arctic.

Most of the heat fueling this departure will come from the warm air invasion over the Atlantic Ocean zone. A secondary, but also very intense temperature departure is predicted to emerge along the Jet Stream ridge pattern stretching to the Mackenzie Delta region. There temperatures will also show isolated spikes in the +20 C above the 1979-2000 average range.

For the sea ice, such departures are very bad timing — hitting vulnerable regions hard just prior to traditional melt season start and possibly developing a rather low launching pad for the 2015 melt season. As such, there is high risk for continuing and expanding record lows for sea ice extent over at least the next five days.

Arctic heat spike

(Global Forecast System Model surface temperature anomaly forecast for Sunday, March 8 shows polar amplification ramping up to an extraordinary +3.99 C for the entire Arctic. Note the extreme positive temperature departures in a very large zone north of the Barents and in the Central Arctic Basin as well as the somewhat smaller but still extreme area of much warmer than normal temperatures over the Mackenzie Delta region. Image source: The University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer.)

New Record Lows Amidst Dramatic Thinning

The most recent record lows and threat of these low measures deepening come amidst new scientific reports finding an ominous and extreme thinning of sea ice in the Central Arctic Ocean near the pole. The study found that between 1975 and 2012 Central Arctic Sea Ice thinned from 11.7 feet to 4.1 feet.

Such thinning represents a loss of fully 65 percent of the sea ice volume for the Central Arctic Ocean over this period. But yearly average sea ice thinning paled in comparison to losses seen during September. For that month, sea ice thickness plunged from 9.8 feet to merely 1.4 feet — a stunning drop of 85% over the 37 years of measurements.

Study Author Ron Lindsay of the Applied Physics Lab at UW notes:

“The ice is thinning dramatically. We knew the ice was thinning, but we now have additional confirmation on how fast, and we can see that it’s not slowing down.”

Axel Schweiger, a polar scientist and contributor to the UW study added:

At least for the central Arctic basin, even our most drastic thinning estimate was slower than measured by these observations.”

A 1.4 foot average sea ice thickness for September is very thin. Tissue paper thin when it comes to sea ice. And the 4.1 foot yearly average isn’t much better. A fragile skein vulnerable to the continued assault of elemental heat we keep driving into the Arctic. Given this major loss, noted fragility, and ongoing exploration of record low values, risks for blue ocean events in this region are on the rise.

*   *   *   *

UPDATE: On March 5, 2015 new record extent lows deepened in the NSIDC measure. By that date extent measures had fallen another 25,000 square kilometers to 14,358,000. The drop deepens losses and widens the gap between 2006 (second lowest on record) and 2015 to 74,000 square kilometers — or an area roughly the size of South Carolina.

Conditions — major heat build up along the ice edge zones, especially in the Barents region — continue to favor suppressed and reduced sea ice levels over the coming days. Updates on this evolving sensitive situation near the start of melt season will continue.

Links:

National Snow and Ice Data Center

The University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer

Global Forecast System Model

Earth Nullschool

Arctic Sea Ice Thinning Dramatically

Arctic Sea Ice Flirts with New Record Lows

Hat Tips:

Scientific Hat tip to Ron Lindsay and Axel Schweiger

Scientific Hat tip to the UW applied Physics research team

The Arctic Sea Ice Blog

Kevin Jones

Colorado Bob

Leave a comment

305 Comments

  1. Thanks Robert …
    for more depressing news :-((

    Reply
    • March 5 update is in. Departure now 74,000 square kilometers.

      ******

      Big post on Arctic methane in the works today. It’s rather involved and probably won’t finish by the end. Will try to see if we can push it out this weekend.

      Reply
  2. Mark from New England

     /  March 5, 2015

    Great article. Perhaps instead of depressing, we can greet it as a wake-up call and be urging on a new dramatically low sea ice extent and volume come September. Sort of like Bostonians cheering for another 2 inches of snow this winter to break the record snowiest.

    Reply
  3. Griffin

     /  March 5, 2015

    Of all the articles I have read today regarding the possible record low extent, yours is the first to combine this with the dramatic thinning to produce the total devastating picture of what we are seeing in the arctic now. Well done.

    Reply
    • Context is essential to understanding. If the elephant’s tail grew two inches, then how much did the elephant grow?

      Reply
      • Yes, context is essential. Thanks, Robert.
        I have to keep reinforcing that at the forums I attend and make comments. I get resistance at first — but then people come up to me and say, “Thank you for bringing that up.”
        My photography is meant to give both evidence, and context, to some very real ecological and existential predicaments.

        Good stuff, Robert.

        Reply
    • Here, hear, here.

      Reply
  4. Christina

     /  March 5, 2015

    I looked at the sea ice volume and it doesn’t seem to correlate with the possible record low extent. Can anyone shed some light on this? Am I reading the graph wrong? Here is the PIOMAS link – which says daily volume but maybe it’s not updated daily?http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1_CY.png

    Reply
    • PIOMAS is a monthly model essay attempting to measure volume. PIOMAS is famous for noting its relatively high error bars. Volume tends to trend in similar fashion to extent and area, but the measures do diverge from time to time. Any new record low in any measure is an important indicator. It’s also worth noting that other measures (CRYOSAT) have shown continued volume declines into 2013-2014. To this point, I wouldn’t say the volume issue is entirely settled. Nor does it diminish the importance of a new record low in the extent measure.

      Reply
  5. Griffin

     /  March 5, 2015

    We are losing an enormous heat sink for the planet.

    Reply
    • Lose a heat reflector — White Sea ice. Gain a heat absorber — dark ocean.

      Reply
      • Griffin

         /  March 5, 2015

        Which makes me think of the recent news we saw regarding the 50w/sqm imbalance that NASA reported for the open areas of the Beaufort sea.

        Reply
      • That NASA report was an eye-opener.

        Reply
      • climatehawk1

         /  March 6, 2015

        I saw a comment elsewhere, however, to the effect that there is a positive (negative?) feedback. Open water gives up more heat to space during the long winter nights than ice-covered water. Not downplaying anything, just noting. If I remember the comment correctly, a study found that a completely ice-free Arctic in summer would develop new ice–I can dredge up the ref if desired. Screwing up even that effect would, of course, mean we were even more on a disaster course than we already are.

        Reply
      • Open water gives up more heat to atmosphere… Some of which re-radiates to space through the thin, cold northern air. But add ghg, and less radiates to space. The thicker, moister, the Arctic air becomes, the less and less this is a factor.

        But yeah, wait to see some major polar amplification in the Oct through Jan timeframe the next time a record low summer occurs.

        Reply
      • Also Robert, doesn’t open water absorb far more heat from solar radiation than is potentially lost, even during sunless winters? Especially when one considers the ever thickening GHG blanket that prevents it from radiating into space. I realize this is a simple question. Forgive my ignorance.

        Reply
  6. Ouse M.D.

     /  March 5, 2015

    That windfront from Florida to Iceland is just brutal.
    Abrupt climate change may be even more abrupt as the worst case scenario, as with every other aspect of climate change😦

    Reply
  7. eleggua

     /  March 5, 2015

    Keeling Curve at 401.16 yesterday.
    https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 5, 2015

      ^^^March madness.

      Reply
      • It is indeed madness. Especially when we know that 350 is the upper limit of what is widely considered “safe”. Our culture is completely suicidal.

        Reply
    • Heading for 404 this year in all likelihood.

      Reply
    • Ouse M.D.

       /  March 5, 2015

      Methane breaking down?

      Reply
      • Very small contribution. All you need for this is the 10 gtC + human emission. Carbon cycle feedbacks are rather small by comparison at this point. They’re worth watching, though.

        Reply
    • Spike

       /  March 6, 2015

      As Scientific American put it:

      February is the first month since before months had names to boast carbon dioxide concentrations at 400 parts per million. Such CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have likely not been seen since at least the end of the Oligocene 23 million years ago, an 11-million-year-long epoch of gradual climate cooling that most likely saw CO2 concentrations drop from more than 1,000 ppm. Those of us alive today breathe air never tasted by any of our ancestors in the entire Homo genus.

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 6, 2015

        CO2 Levels for February Eclipsed Prehistoric Highs
        Global warming is headed back to the future as the CO2 level reaches a new high
        March 5, 2015
        http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/co2-levels-for-february-eclipsed-prehistoric-highs/
        …Climate change is inevitable and, if history is any guide to what can be expected, so, too, may be regime change. A few years of diminished rainfall and attendant bad harvests have been enough in the past to fell empires, such as in Mesopotamia or China.

        …the sawtooth record of rising atmospheric CO2 levels moves ever upward and March 2015 will likely be the name of the second month ever to boast levels above 400 ppm.

        Reply
      • We were probably closer to 450-520 ppm in the 23 MA timeframe. 415 ppm gets us into the Miocene, though. Now that CO2e of 481 ppm is another matter entirely…

        Reply
      • anthropocene

         /  March 9, 2015

        Hi Robert, For comparison purposes could you please post the CO2e value you calculate for 1880 (or anytime pre-industrial since I guess they are the same). Is this even possible? – I don’t recall seeing CH4 and NOx values for 1880.

        Reply
  8. Reblogged this on jpratt27.

    Reply
  9. Colorado Bob

     /  March 6, 2015

    “Get ready little lady. hell is commin ‘ to breakfast ”

    Lone Wati

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 6, 2015

      ^^^Played by Chief Dan George.

      ‘My Heart Soars’ – by Chief Dan George

      The beauty of the trees,
      the softness of the air,
      the fragrance of the grass,
      speaks to me.

      The summit of the mountain,
      the thunder of the sky,
      the rhythm of the sea,
      speaks to me.

      The faintness of the stars,
      the freshness of the morning,
      the dew drop on the flower,
      speaks to me.

      The strength of fire,
      the taste of salmon,
      the trail of the sun,
      And the life that never goes away,
      They speak to me.
      And my heart soars

      Reply
  10. Phil

     /  March 6, 2015

    Very interesting article. From Neven’s site, I understand that a decent cyclone is also expected in the arctic (if not already there) – the abnormal warmth gets converted into abnormally strong warm winds and possibly waves.

    Will be interesting to see what eventuates, and if the storm does, what further impacts it has in terms of cracking and compaction versus spreading out the thin ice which might increase the extent measure. However, most pundit’s there seem to expect further extent reductions. Time will tell.

    Reply
    • 944 mb Storm to approach the Barents by Sunday. This is a warm air fueled storm along the meridional flow depicted above.

      Reply
  11. – The Gentle-Woman from Alaska waring the latest suicide vest will state her case.

    Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) on Thursday warned that the United States is “woefully behind” other countries, when it comes to development in the Arctic.

    Murkowski and other members of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee raised concerns over the nation’s lack of preparation for the changing situation in the Arctic.

    Murkowski criticized the “lack of capacity” the U.S. has in the region to increase exploration and development.

    -But another voice from some one not so suicidal raised a point.

    One major issue, Murkowski and ranking member Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) raised, is the absence of icebreakers in the region.

    – Adjourned with instructions to search for the missing icebreakers and the missing ice.

    GOP senator: US is ‘woefully behind’ in Arctic oil exploration

    http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/234754-gop-senator-us-is-woefully-behind-in-arctic

    Reply
    • Yes, I know I should wear my eye glasses when typing “waring” instead of “wearing”.
      I have monocular vision, and keyboard distance and monitor distance sometimes have trouble lining up. Woe is me.🙂

      Reply
    • If there is little, or no ice, who needs icebreakers? That is the real point here.

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 6, 2015

        For the moment, Gazprom.

        ‘Gazprom Neft tanker begins first winter passage from Yamal on Northern Sea Route’
        http://www.crmz.com/NewsStory.aspx?NewsId=14389326
        Feb 23, 2015
        A Gazprom Neft oil tanker has set off from the Yamal Peninsula to Europe along the Northern Sea Route, the first time a tanker has attempted the passage in winter, the company said in a statement.

        The tanker, loaded with 16,000 tonnes of oil from the Novoportovskoye field, left the terminal escorted by a nuclear icebreaker.

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 6, 2015

        The nuclear icebreaker ‘Yamal’:

        Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 6, 2015

      Let’s give Al Franken the last word from ^that^ Senate hearing:

      There is only one bit of official business in the United States Senate Thursday, as a late-season snowstorm blankets Washington: A hearing on “opportunities for the United States to build on its status as an Arctic nation.”

      …later Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) questioned the wisdom of hailing new oil exploration opportunities while questioning the professor, Cecilia Bitz, a University of Washington atmospheric science researcher who testified about what she described as an alarming decline in the extent of Arctic sea ice.

      “We’re basically seeing this decline of Arctic sea ice, and that’s what making available these shipping lanes and possible additional areas to explore for oil and gas,” Franken said. “This is the effect of climate change, right?”

      “I think at least a large portion of the decline is due to climate change, to human activities,” Bitz said.

      “And a lot of climate change is due to the burning of fossil fuels, right?” Franken asked, and Bitz agreed.

      “Okay, so we have a bit of an ironic situation here, do we not?” Franken said. “That the burning of fossil fuels is creating opportunities to find more fossil fuels to burn?”

      “It is obviously ironic, yes,” Bitz said.

      “Yes, it’s funny how ironic it is,” Franken deadpanned. “It’s hilarious.”

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/03/05/on-snowy-d-c-day-senate-hearing-on-the-arctic-turns-to-climate-change/

      Reply
  12. So what’s the intersection between a strong El Niño kicking in late next summer and a whole bunch more Arctic ice melt likely to look like? It seems this will inevitably be a scenario soon, all that heat can’t stay in the ocean indefinitely, one would think. And once we get ice-free Arctic summers, there won’t be any new melt from old ice to add to the equation, so how will that change the winter storm patterns? Oh, Greenland will keep melting for longer, so that will become the main driver. Right.

    Reply
    • rustj2015

       /  March 6, 2015

      Thank you for framing this question, as well, what effects to the jet stream and onward…

      Reply
    • Greenland pumps out meltwater and becomes the new, very unstable, center for cold air in the Arctic. We might see sea ice expansion south of Greenland/Baffin Bay, ironically, depending on melt outflow rates. A very strong melt outflow would be a temporary negative feedback to warming.

      Reply
      • Yes Robert, when ice melts it cools things, and we all must rememeber as well what a huge amount of energy is required for this change of state (ice to water). I was wondering, though, how a strong El Niño would interact with what’s going on up there, since it’s only just recently that we are getting these unusual storms in New England and the UK, and we haven’t had a strong El Niño since, what, 1998?

        Reply
  13. -The dead end “middle way”:

    LONDON— Royal Dutch Shell PLC Chairman Jorma Ollila is joining Chief Executive Ben van Beurden in backing efforts to limit carbon emissions ahead of international climate talks in Paris later this year.

    Mr. Ollila was set to tell employees Wednesday that society must find a “middle way” that “doesn’t threaten economic growth,” according to a transcript of a speech the company disseminated.

    “Shell has been open and firm in its advocacy of cleaner-burning natural gas, carbon capture and storage,” which takes carbon from combustion and stores it in places like underground reservoirs “and carbon pricing. And we’re hopeful that policy makers will recognize the value of all three at the gathering in Paris later this year,” the transcript says.

    Shell, which is heavily invested in big, long-lived natural gas projects, has been increasingly vocal in calling for energy companies to participate with policy makers in addressing climate change.

    Mr. van Beurden told an oil-industry conference last month that oil companies should support a carbon-pricing system as well as “a shift from coal to natural gas.”

    Mr. Ollila offered examples of Shell innovations, including a U.K. carbon storage plan, new natural gas production and transportation plans in Australia, and “gas-to-liquids production in Qatar,” a process with heavy carbon emissions that converts natural gas to diesel-like liquid fuel.

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/shells-ollila-says-society-must-find-middle-way-on-climate-change-1425497418

    Reply
    • Qatar must be some sort of sordid petroleum Las Vegas with 24 hour petro-alchemy.

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 6, 2015

      Jorma Olila anagram =

      Major All Oil

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 6, 2015

        Correction.

        Jorma Ollila = Major All Oil

        Major All Oil, Non-Executive Chairman of Royal Dutch Shell, is currently an Advisory Partner at Perella Weinberg Partners, the New York-based boutique investment bank.
        Perella Weinberg Partners L.P. is an independent, privately owned, global financial services firm providing corporate advisory and asset management services to clients around the world.
        The Advisory Council is chaired by William H. Donaldson[9][10] former Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Its other members include Ibrahim Dabdoub, CEO of the National Bank of Kuwait; Walter Isaacson, President and CEO of the Aspen Institute; and Daniel Yergin, Chairman of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

        Major All Oil is also a member of the Steering Committee at the Bilderberg Group.
        The Bilderberg Group has been criticised for its lack of transparency and accountability. Concerns about lobbying have also arisen. Due to its privacy, Bilderberg is also accused of conspiracies.
        This outlook has been popular on both extremes of the political spectrum, even if they disagree about the exact nature of the group’s intentions. Some on the left accuse the Bilderberg group of conspiring to impose capitalist domination, while some on the right have accused the group of conspiring to impose a world government and planned economy.

        Reply
    • Natural Gas is climate change game over too. CCS is just another word for enhanced extraction in oil and gas industry parlance. We need to stop using fossil fuels. Fin.

      Reply
    • Peter Malsin

       /  March 7, 2015

      With a shout-out and/or apologies to Chief Dan George, Shell speak with forked tongue.
      http://www.thenation.com/article/199865/royal-dutch-shell-wants-look-oil-most-dangerous-drilling-environment-world#
      I found this an impressively good article by Banerjee.

      Reply
  14. Andy in San Diego

     /  March 6, 2015

    West Coast Snowpack – Not a good outlook for 2015.

    ======================================
    Areas receiving little precipitation,…………
    ======================================

    A California snowpack survey on Tuesday found less than one inch of water stored in snowpack, or 5 percent of historical average, at a site in the Sierra Nevada 90 miles east of Sacramento. Statewide snowpack on March 3 was about 19 percent of the multidecade average.
    ======================================
    ………..or not getting snow but rather run off.
    =======================================
    “Farther north, rainfall has been near normal in Oregon and Washington, but warm temperatures ranging from 15 to 25 degrees above normal have prevented snowpack from building in the Pacific Northwest mountains.

    Hurricane Ridge in Washington’s Olympic Range, which normally reports 87 inches of snow by mid-February, reported four inches on the ground. Snoqualmie Pass east of Seattle, which normally has 85 inches of snow by now, reported 21 inches. In the Oregon Cascades on February 18, water content in snowpack ranged from 9 to 17 percent of average.”

    =======================================

    Farmers are at zero allocation again for 2015. But the well drillers will be running 24/7 again.

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/03/150304-snow-snowpack-california-drought-groundwater-crisis/

    Reply
    • The area from Baja to the Aleutions is fast becoming an ‘California’.

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 6, 2015

      Hurricane Ridge in Washington’s Olympic Range, which normally reports 87 inches of snow by mid-February, reported four inches on the ground.

      Encore presentation:
      https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2015/03/04/2015-el-nino-to-bring-back-to-back-hottest-years-on-record/#comment-34788
      “Stunning and mindboggling. If you’ve ever been up to Hurricane Ridge in February, or even April, 7″ of snow on the ground is near-incomprehensible.”

      Four inches is incomprehensible for this time of year.

      It’s comin’ down fast and I don’t mean snow.

      Reply
    • JPL

       /  March 6, 2015

      Andy, I can see the Olympics from my kitchen window and yeah, there is almost no snow up there. This is the lowest snow pack winter I can recall. We were pretty wet up here for a while, but now the precip is few and far between. Seattle is looking at daytime highs in the low 60’s this weekend, which is certainly above average for the first week in March. Many of plum trees around my place are in full bloom right now. Don’t tell the calendar, but apparently it’s spring now.

      John

      Reply
    • Amazingly brutal assessment here, Andy.

      Reply
      • I’m in PDX seeing the same — but fearful that sudden jolt of winter may slip in for a few days at some point while nature is still in a springtime mode.
        We had something like that last year at some point. Plants in full foliage zapped by freeze burns through and through.

        Reply
  15. joni

     /  March 6, 2015

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/04/travel/lake-nicaragua-tour/

    “With the pending completion of the canal in 2019, Lake Nicaragua may be impacted in ways only time will reveal.

    Environmental experts worry that the shallow waters of the lake won’t be able to withstand the dredging that will come with construction.

    Additionally, communities will likely be displaced and wetlands may become more vulnerable to destruction.

    “In terms of the canal impact on Lake Nicaragua, one big concern is the damage to the quality of the water; the ship traffic will pollute the water with toxic sediments and industrial chemicals and introduce destructive invasive species, plants and animals,” Dr. Jorge A. Huete-Perez, vice president of the Nicaraguan Academy of Sciences and director of the Molecular Biology Center at the University of Central America told CNN.

    “Dredging of the lake for the construction of the canal will render the lake a ‘dead zone’ because of hypoxia, eutrophication and turbidity.””

    A huge body of water is about to be altered forever so we can get plastic crap from coal powered factories a bit faster..

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 6, 2015

      Encore.
      https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2015/03/04/2015-el-nino-to-bring-back-to-back-hottest-years-on-record/#comment-34810
      The craziest thing about it is the possibility – the likelihood, even – that it won’t ever be completed.
      Some skeptics doubt the hyper-ambitious canal is realistic.
      Pedro Alvarez, chairman of civil engineering at Rice University, has expressed doubts that it will ever be completed.
      He worries that it will be abandoned. His greatest concern is severe damage to Lake Nicaragua.

      ^^^That’s from the CNN piece. Just found this:

      ‘Scientists question rush to build Nicaragua canal’
      March 4, 2015 http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/03/150304124135.htm
      …this plan will force the relocation of indigenous populations and impact a fragile ecosystem, including species at risk of extinction, according to Rice University environmental engineer Pedro Alvarez and other members of the consortium.

      Alvarez is co-corresponding author of an article that includes 21 co-authors from 18 institutions in the United States and Central and South America who gathered at a multidisciplinary international workshop in Managua, Nicaragua, last November to discuss the project. The paper, titled “Scientists Raise Alarms About Fast Tracking of Transoceanic Canal Through Nicaragua,” was published this week by the American Chemical Society journal Environmental Science and Technology……

      Reply
  16. eleggua

     /  March 6, 2015

    Note that two of the areas with the coldest anomolous water temps in January 2015 were south of Greenland and north of the Larsen Ice Shelf.
    Glacial melt into the sea affecting temps?

    Reply
    • Andy in San Diego

       /  March 6, 2015

      That is my guess, watched it all last summer. That is also a big culprit for the ice extent during antarctic winter as salt water freezes about 4C to 6C (or so) lower that fresh ( 0C ). The runoff from the continent and melt of the shelves dilutes the salt content.

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 6, 2015

        Thanks, Andy. I wasn’t watching closely throughout the year; noted it in January when the map for the entire 2014 was published.

        Great point on the sea ice extent factor. Hadn’t noted that; makes sense.

        Reply
  17. eleggua

     /  March 6, 2015

    Same for the entire 2014:

    Reply
    • That is exactly the signature expected due to large meltwater and ice outflows. It just keeps getting worse.

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 6, 2015

        Thanks. That’s the way it seemed to this far-less informed perspective.
        The blue extends eastward along most of the limit of the continent.
        When that huge chunk of Larsen C breaks off, will be interesting to note the temp anomaly in that area.

        Checked the 2002 sea temp anomaly map:
        http://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=AMSRE_SSTAn_M&year=2002
        Can’t tell from that map if there’s a noticeable effect from the collapse of Larsen B;
        sure someone here can better interpret it.

        Reply
  18. Robert, which site do you use for the sea ice extent? I have generally been checking out cryosphere, but have different values than yours. Perhaps they use a slightly different dataset?

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

    Reply
  19. Svalbard in Norway experiencing temperatures +15C above normal these days!

    http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Svalbard_lufthavn/statistics.html

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 6, 2015

      Wow. Significantly warmer than normal for every one of the past twelve months.
      At least 1.3°C warmer than normal, with an alarming +8°C warmer than normal in Jan, 2015 and +7.1°C last March, 2014.

      Hmm. Check the average per-month precipitation numbers.
      Much higher than normal in eight months; a bit lower than normal the other four.
      October (+28.9mm above normal), November (+37mm) and December 2014 (+41.5mm) were way higher than normal.
      While that’s less than 2″ more per month, it’s over 300% of normal precipitation for each of those months; 359% more in December.
      Are those precipitations rain or snow? And is it a reason for additional concern?

      Reply
      • Well, the city of Bergen where I live has seen some dramatic increases in precipitation (with some serious flooding events too) this winter for the western part of Norway.

        http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Hordaland/Bergen/Bergen/statistics.html

        A new record as well with 516.1 mm in january. This has naturally led to some exceptional amount of snow in the mountains and with the onset of melting season now, there is already flood warnings out now along with high precipitation.

        If this really is just the beginning of things to come, I dread what’s around the corner. As I often tell my friends, our city is looking more and more like a scene from Blade Runner (with the endless downpour in all the street scenes).

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 6, 2015

        Philip K. Dick, author of ‘Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?’, the novel upon which ‘Blade Runner’ is based, foresaw a lot of what’s going on now with regard to the effects of climate change. His was obsessed with concern for the environment; a beautiful obsession, imo.

        The Voight-Kampff test should be given to Imhofe, Major All Oil, Jeb Bush, Bill O’Reilly, etc, et al. Every person running for public office should be required to pass the Voight-Kampff test.

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 6, 2015

        “A new record as well with 516.1 mm in january.”
        Yikes. That’s over 270% of normal. December was 180% above normal; February, 162%.
        Last 30 days average temperature was 3.9 °C, 2.2 °C above the normal.
        No where to go there to escape run-off; sandwich between the mountains and sea.
        Hoping for the best for you and all of your neighbours.

        Reply
        • I guess our comfort is that it means more hydro electric energy that we can export to our neighbours in the hope that they displace some coal plants. But its getting increasingly clear (even for our right government) that our infrastructure was not built for these kinds of water amounts, and that we need to think careful about adapting to increased precipitation. There isnt a single week these days where some road has been blocked by either an avalanche or mud slides or the whole road just falling into the fjords. We recently had to demolish a bridge due to the land mass giving way under it so it almost collapsed. Possibly as a result from increased precipitation.

      • eleggua

         /  March 6, 2015

        Wow. Here’s footage of the bridge shot from a ‘copter just after the land beneath gave way.

        Reply
      • John — you guys are getting much of the storm track that hit the UK last year…

        Reply
    • Euro model shows that strong storm swinging to just north of Svalbard this year. Svalbard is just at the advancing edge of the warm air steadily invading the Arctic.

      Reply
  20. eleggua

     /  March 6, 2015

    ‘Opposition Grows To Nicaragua Canal Connecting Atlantic And Pacific’
    February 26, 2015
    http://wfae.org/post/opposition-grows-nicaragua-canal-connecting-atlantic-and-pacific
    Then there’s the issue of the water surrounding Ometepe Island. Lake Nicaragua is Central America’s largest and provides drinking water to dozens of towns. But to make way for supersized oil tankers and container ships, blueprints call for part of the lake bottom to be dredged to create a shipping lane. The soil, rocks and muck dug up from the bottom will be used to create three more islands…

    Manuel Coronel, who heads the Nicaraguan Canal Authority, argues that the canal will be good for the environment. He says the government will use profits from the waterway to strictly enforce green laws….

    …the protesters are persistent. At the Ometepe march, I meet Octavio Ortega, who was attacked by anti-riot police in December. His face is full of scars and his arm is still in a sling, but his voice is firm.
    “My doctors have ordered me to rest,” he says, “but I am recovering by organizing more and more protests across Nicaragua.”

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 6, 2015

      Crazy. It’s ex-Sandinistas that are backing this folly.

      ‘A man, a plan—and little else
      Yet again, Nicaraguans are letting their longing for a trans-oceanic canal get the better of them’

      Oct 5th 2013
      http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21587218-yet-again-nicaraguans-are-letting-their-longing-trans-oceanic-canal-get-better
      …Wang Jing, a Chinese businessman whose $40 billion quest is to build a canal from Nicaragua’s Atlantic coast to its Pacific one.
      The dream of such a canal, three times as long as the one that cuts through Panama, is centuries old, and has made fools of all who ever believed in it. But Mr Wang has already pulled off one remarkable feat: he has persuaded the former revolutionaries in the Sandinista government to put Nicaragua’s sovereignty in hock to make the dream come true.

      “He’s a person who radiates confidence,” says Manuel Coronel Kautz, president of Nicaragua’s canal authority. “His company headquarters alone would cover half of Managua.”

      …the Sandinista-stuffed National Assembly rubber-stamped a law granting a 50-year concession, renewable up to 100 years, to Mr Wang’s HKND Group…

      HKND argues that large volumes of globally traded goods are being carried on ships already too big for the Panama Canal, even after its current expansion. Nicaragua’s canal, with twice the draught of Panama’s, would aim to accommodate such giants. But world trade is sluggish; and meanwhile, new routes may develop through the Arctic….

      Mr Ortega’s Sandinistas control all organs of government, including the Supreme Court, which means that legal and environmental challenges are unlikely to get a fair hearing. There was almost no public debate before the law was approved.

      As a result, Mr Wang’s contract may not be safe if the government changes. That does not worry Mr Coronel. The white-haired son of one of Nicaragua’s most famous poets, he has long dreamed of the canal as a way of raising Nicaraguan living standards—an unfulfilled pledge of the Sandinista revolution. His only concern, he says, is that, at 80, he may not live long enough to see the dream fulfilled. But by then, in Mr Ortega’s words, Nicaragua will have reached the “promised land”.

      Reply
      • If the Lake Nicaragua canal gets blocked the backup plan is to build a new container port near Nuquí on Colombia’s wild, forested and unspoilt Pacific coast, then build major roads through the mountains to ports on the Caribbean coast to truck the containers back and forth. I was in the Chocó region of Colombia last year when the plans for the Nicaragua canal were first agreed. The people there were horrified at the news, but knew it was a reprieve for their environment, which is a paradise. In either place, these developments will be environmental disasters. Lake Nicaragua is home to the world’s only species of freshwater shark, remnants of when it was once connected to the ocean.

        Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 6, 2015

      “The horror…the horror.” – Colonel Kurtz, Apocalypse Now

      Reply
      • dnem

         /  March 6, 2015

        The Nicaragua canal is literally the worst major public works project on planet Earth. So far outside any possible rational behavior that the mind reels. For a country like Nicaragua to destroy its natural heritage to double down on an economic model that is in its dying gasps is too sad for words. Do planners there REALLY think the future lies in shuttling meaningless crap around the globe? Anyone here think in 2040 Supermax container ships will be busily passing through this canal on the way to offload consumer goods in thriving US ports? Or even in 2030? Sad, sad, sad.

        Reply
      • Mark from New England

         /  March 6, 2015

        I hope the Rainforest Action Network and other environmental organizations are gearing up to fight this.

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 6, 2015

        One can only hope the ex-Sandinistas are just taking that guy for a multi-million dollar ride through the jungle and that they’ll never actually allow it.

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 6, 2015

        “hope the Rainforest Action Network and other environmental organizations are gearing up to fight this.”

        Could not find anything regarding action by any organization. Checked RAN’s site: nada.
        Only action seems to be local and not centrally organized.

        Reply
  21. Mark from New England

     /  March 6, 2015

    Santa better move his headquarters from the North Pole. Meanwhile in NH it feels like the North Pole😉

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  March 6, 2015

      OK, that was supposed to be TODAY’s anomaly map! What’s up with Climate Reanalyzer?

      Reply
      • dnem

         /  March 6, 2015

        Reanalyzer always does that – just click on the image you posted and it will show today’s image.

        Reply
    • wili

       /  March 6, 2015

      In about two weeks, the sun will rise on the North Pole, and it will stay up 24/7 for the next six months. As it stands now, it looks as if there could be more open water for it to hit than ever, so albedo shift will tend to melt things ever faster. Of course, if there is a lot of cloudy weather, that will reduce this effect considerably. In the Arctic, each yearly melt season is powerfully affected by that season’s weather. And it’s very hard to call what exactly the weather will be like up there over the next six months.

      Reply
      • The strengthening dipole and polar amplification this year is happening at exactly the wrong time, setting us up for an early and record start to melt season if conditions continue as is.

        Reply
  22. Kevin Jones

     /  March 6, 2015

    Absolutely correct, wili. But it is a crap shoot and every day the dice, like the ice, get shaved…..

    Reply
  23. Kevin Jones

     /  March 6, 2015

    Looking at arctic sea ice concentration maps this morning (AMSR2 and NSIDC) it strikes me as unusual to see such low values around the mouths of the great rivers for this time of year. Especially the Siberian ones. Just discovered a new site, Arctic Great Rivers Observatory. “…the Arctic Ocean is the most landlocked and fresh water dominated of the Earths oceans.” I was amazed one spring hike in NH by how warm a mountain stream was so early in the season…its water meandering south in sun drenched shallows…but could this be heat left over from last summer?

    Reply
    • GHG forcing is strongest during winter and at night. The reason is that this forcing prevents a portion of radiative cooling during low direct insolation.

      Reply
  24. Kevin Jones

     /  March 6, 2015

    And Rutgers Snow and Ice Lab is showing Feb. as first Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Feb. with negative anomaly since ’09…slightly positive for N.America, down for Eurasia….. an early jump for spring negative anomaly trend.

    Reply
  25. Kevin Jones

     /  March 6, 2015

    The ghouls of interactive feedbacks are drunkenly dancing ’round the flame. What WILL the Arctic look like come September?

    Reply
  26. Spike

     /  March 6, 2015

    A bit of responsible journalism in the UK at last.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/06/climate-change-guardian-threat-to-earth-alan-rusbridger

    Better late than never.

    Reply
    • The Guardian has good CC coverage…

      Reply
      • Yes, Alan Rusbtidger is doing the right thing — for sure.

        Reply
      • “Rusbridger”

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 6, 2015

        Yes!!!

        We will leave the skeptics and deniers to waste their time challenging the science. The mainstream argument has moved on to the politics and economics.

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 6, 2015

        Yeah!!! Go get ’em!!!

        We will look at who is getting the subsidies and who is doing the lobbying. We will name the worst polluters and find out who still funds them.

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 6, 2015

        Where does this leave you? I hope not feeling impotent and fearful.

        Exactly!!! PYSKE!!!

        Reply
      • mikkel

         /  March 6, 2015

        565 gigatons: “Scientists estimate that humans can pour roughly 565 more gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by mid-century and still have some reasonable hope of staying below 2C,” is how McKibben crisply puts it. Few dispute that this idea of a global “carbon budget” is broadly right.

        Yet Mann says 2C by 2035…which is what, less than 1/3 of that?

        Reply
      • 565 GT more CO2 equals 505 ppm CO2 and 620 ppm CO2e or enough human ghg forcing to melt all or nearly all the ice on Earth without response from Earth Systems and carbon cycle feedbacks. We need zero CO2 emissions as soon as possible. 565 GT is a subsidy to fossil fuel companies civilization can’t afford to pay.

        Reply
      • mikkel

         /  March 6, 2015

        I feel really bad reading stuff like that Guardian piece because on one hand it is a good call to power but on the other hand the framing is in the extremely “conservative” (therefore radical) IPCC/international climate politics mode and far from the reality of what is actually required.

        Reply
      • mikkel

         /  March 6, 2015

        And also that it will take such a fundamental shift to even hit those IPCC targets, that getting to where we actually need wouldn’t be too much worse…as long as we start immediately. This isn’t like diffusion of technology or political ideologies, where we can start on a good path for 20 years and then accelerate as it takes hold.

        If action was started in the 70s then sure, but not now.

        So really the Guardian is still not telling the true whole picture.

        Reply
      • mikkel

         /  March 6, 2015

        climatehawk: I know and I feel conflicted about it…

        But the reality is that it takes just as much psychological and emotional effort to change your existential reality as it does to change it completely. Gearing everyone up for a moderate target and then revealing that actually it wasn’t enough is the ultimate bait and switch betrayal.

        I see this happening all the time in various social change/professional (e.g. medical) movements and it is torturous for those involved, and quite frankly condescending to the people you’re communicating to. They’re already caused deep pain by being confronted with change and then not given the full picture.

        Reply
      • mikkel

         /  March 6, 2015

        Oops..
        “But the reality is that it takes just as much psychological and emotional effort to change your existential reality *modestly* as it does to change it completely.”

        Reply
      • mikkel

         /  March 6, 2015

        ” I was the editor of a renewable energy newsletter, and I saw to it that global warming received steady coverage after Hansen’s testimony–right up until the head of the organization that published the newsletter called me on the phone and ordered me to stop.”

        I’d like to hear more about this…

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 7, 2015

        It is what it is. Applaud each sign of progress and urge more, ASAP. It’s important not to fall into the trap of bitching when people do positive things… but to provide positive reinforcement.

        Hear, hear!!!

        Reply
      • I think the reason we’ve encountered so much resistance is the fact that fossil fuel money and influence are so pervasive. I can’t find any other reason why an owner for a renewable energy newsletter would order cessation of relavent climate coverage. Coverage that would encourage and provide urgency to renewable energy stakeholders and investors. The reason why the owner leaned on you is probably because someone in the funding stream leaned on him. Good reason why it’s so important to switch away from fossil fuel expansion and start to undercut and divest from that business as much as possible. It removes harmful influence.

        Reply
        • climatehawk1

           /  March 7, 2015

          I don’t THINK it was a matter of influence–I’m inclined to ascribe it to lack of vision. Climate change was really out of the mainstream within a few years after Hansen’s Congressional testimony. Hard to imagine, but companies in the industry–still very small at the time–may well have seen it as a distraction. And me as a crank.🙂

        • This kind of failure of foresight is mind boggling to me.

      • eleggua

         /  March 7, 2015

        “So really the Guardian is still not telling the true whole picture.”

        Let’s not assume that they even see part of the picture much less the whole of it.
        I don’t see the whole picture; no one person can; our shared perspective is more important in creating a better future than any one perspective could be. Singular, myopic perspectives are part of what fostered this mess we’ve to fix.

        Let’s give them a chance to widen their perspective and in doing so widen that of their readership.
        That piece is clearly heart-felt. Very encouraging. Very, very, very encouraging.

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 7, 2015

        “I see this happening all the time…”

        mikkel, you’re in the perfect position to help change that from continuing to happen all the time. You see it; you’ve the ability to translate it and make it understandable for those that don’t see it, I figure.
        Important to keep a positive perspective and not be dragged down by ignorance. This mess didn’t happen overnight; fixing it is going to be a long process, too. Time is of the essence; it’s important not to waste it on negative perspectives. True of any ‘time’ and so obvious at this ‘time’. You already know that, I’m sure.

        Reply
      • I hope it is at least a ‘clarion call’ to the rest of MSM to at least get engaged and supply their audience with a sense of urgency — which is lacking or nonexistent.

        Reply
      • mikkel

         /  March 7, 2015

        Thanks eleggua…I’m not sure that I have that ability by myself, but have started with working people who are good at supporting people to change and they say they value my contribution to help figure out what to change towards. So hopefully together we do.

        “I don’t see the whole picture; no one person can; our shared perspective is more important in creating a better future than any one perspective could be.”

        I’ve been spending a lot of time with social change groups and they all say they know that everyone in the movement has something in common, but they can’t say what it is. They also are getting people energized but are unsure how to direct them, or evaluate what can be. I inserted the word ideology into the conversation and it was rapidly grabbed as the missing element.

        I have thoughts about that I won’t go into, but I was reminded of the Blind Men and Elephant parable. Without the outside observer to give insight, they were unable to determine what they were truly touching, even in the versions where they accept each other’s subjective truth.

        Robert is a pretty fine objective observer as far as this is concerned! Perhaps we should figure out how to get him to have that level of exposure.

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 7, 2015

        I’ve some nascent ideas aiming in ^that direction.

        Regarding the ‘blind men and the elephant’, the parable has several iterations.
        The Jain version poses it as a model of cooperation:
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blind_men_and_an_elephant#Jain

        “I’ve been spending a lot of time with social change groups and they all say they know that everyone in the movement has something in common, but they can’t say what it is.”

        I’d say there’re at least two things: concern for and love for the planet.
        Wed that concern and love with awareness of self as part of the planet and possibilities expand while divisions diminish.

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 7, 2015

        Oh, and you’re welcome. Thank you for your consideration.

        Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 6, 2015

      Tide is turning.

      This summer I am stepping down after 20 years of editing the Guardian. Over Christmas I tried to anticipate whether I would have any regrets once I no longer had the leadership of this extraordinary agent of reporting, argument, investigation, questioning and advocacy.

      Very few regrets, I thought, except this one: that we had not done justice to this huge, overshadowing, overwhelming issue of how climate change will probably, within the lifetime of our children, cause untold havoc and stress to our species.
      Advertisement

      So, in the time left to me as editor, I thought I would try to harness the Guardian’s best resources to describe what is happening and what – if we do nothing – is almost certain to occur, a future that one distinguished scientist has termed as “incompatible with any reasonable characterisation of an organised, equitable and civilised global community”.

      Reply
  27. Kevin Jones

     /  March 6, 2015

    ESRL has Mauna Loa CO2 Feb avg. at 400.26ppm. This would be the first February in (pre) history above 400 in 800,000 years or 3 million years or (I saw this morning) 26 million years? Bare in mind the first time in the past 800,000 years we hit 300ppm CO2 was in 1914. (pre-homo sapiens came close but not quite 430,000 years ago….Antarctic ice core data from Scripps)

    Reply
    • Probably 3 million years. But once you get up to 415 ppm or so, it’s definitely pushing the 20 million year timeframe.

      Reply
      • Ouse M.D.

         /  March 6, 2015

        Can living organisms survive that abrupt change in just decades?
        I mean there’s two problematics:
        1) abrupt climate change has happened before, we know
        2) but the events leading to abrupt climate change have been also triggered in an unprecented high rate

        It’s an experiment the living planet has never been subject before.
        We are worse than a suspected gamma- ray burst, from a supernova explosion suspected to be behind the Ordovician

        Reply
      • Some will. Others will not. Climate change + human development is an ongoing mass extinction that’s happening now. It gets far, far worse the more carbon we pump out, though. Basically going down the hellhole by degrees…

        Reply
  28. Kevin Jones

     /  March 6, 2015

    Sorry. About 330,000 (three inter-glacials) years ago.

    Reply
  29. Kevin Jones

     /  March 6, 2015

    …bear in mind…. my spelling is out to lunch today (and mercifully for you readers,so am I!)

    Reply
  30. Kevin Jones

     /  March 6, 2015

    P.S. Robert & Team: Thanks a million again.

    Reply
  31. The GOP’s climate change skepticism, in one groan-worthy video


    Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) decided to use the occasion to attack the rules by quizzing EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy on her climate and weather knowledge. The resulting exchange highlighted a new variant on the GOP’s longtime strategy to oppose climate change action: sowing doubt.

    One by one, Sessions presented McCarthy with statements on very recent trends in drought, hurricanes and climate models, and asked whether she agreed with the statements. What all these trends had in common: They downplayed, at least superficially, the threat of climate change. Sessions cited figures showing that in roughly the past decade, soil moisture has slightly increased, that major hurricane landfalls in the United States have decreased, and that temperatures have risen less than many models predicted.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/03/05/the-gops-climate-change-skepticism-in-one-groan-worthy-video/

    Reply
  32. Lulu – Morning Dew HD stereo
    This version has energy and immediacy much in line with our current climate change/carbon fallout.

    “A very powerful song, by a very talented songwriter. But how many who covered it over the years knew who Bonnie Dobson was? Did you know she wrote it? Quite likely not. She had a very difficult time over that one song.

    The nutshell version is that Bonnie Dobson was so moved by the chilling movie, On The Beach, (about survivors of nuclear fallout) that she wrote Morning Dew as a response…”

    forums-stevehoffman.-tv

    – In the same spirit of Pablo Picasso and his Guernica mural which is his visceral response to the Nazi/Franco terror bombing of the village of Guernica

    Reply
    • -Very nice:
      bonnie dobson – morning dew

      “But I know I hear my baby crying, “Mama!”
      Yes, I know I hear my baby crying, Mama!”
      You’ll never hear your baby cry again.
      You’ll never hear your baby cry again.

      Oh, where have all the people gone?
      Won’t you tell me where have all the people gone?
      Don’t you worry about the people anymore.
      Don’t you worry about the people anymore.

      Take me for a walk in the morning dew, my honey.
      Take me for a walk me in the morning dew, my love.

      Reply
    • This is my attempt at a “Guernica”.

      Reply
      • ?Can you name all the faces?

        Reply
      • Jacob

         /  March 6, 2015

        Of the faces I can see in that image:

        Grim Reaper
        Adolph Hitler
        Heinrich Himmler
        Henry Ford

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 6, 2015

        Smiley face in the camper window; must rescue before crash.

        Reply
      • Right, Jacob.
        AH and HF had deep admiration for one another — sordid soul mates.
        HH oversaw the mass executions of innocents. His gunmen began complaining of PTSD type symptoms, and their wives grew weary of washing bloody human flesh out of their uniforms — so they improvised gas chambers using lethal engine emissions to kill. But the emissions began to harm the engine operators — so Zyklon B (hydrocyanic acid) from IG Farben was then used. The point is that the “gas” used in the first “gas chambers” was engine emissions.
        Henry Ford and his cronies made it possible (in the USA) for millions of petroleum fueled engines to be accepted and used.
        (The Keeling Curve mirrors the decades of the car culture — whether it’s Ford, GMC, or VW.)

        Reply
      • Sorry, eleggua, but smiley face likes the ride. “Are we there yet?”

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 7, 2015

        Aw, smiley’s a good guy, too. Smiles are always better than frowns, and they’re easy on the body.
        http://longevity.about.com/od/lifelongbeauty/tp/smiling.htm

        Smiling at you and with you, dt. =)

        Reply
  33. Kevin Jones

     /  March 6, 2015

    Thomas Newcomen inside the gas mask?

    Reply
    • Sorry, KJ — but no. Good guess.
      It’s actually everyman “just following orders — it’s my job” person who blindly perpetuates any such horrible actions including ACC. It could be Mitch McConnell though.🙂

      Reply
  34. climatehawk1

     /  March 6, 2015

    Nice job, tweeted.

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 7, 2015

      …the location of the main warming – about 10 degrees west of the International Dateline rather than to the east – and its timing early in the year are puzzling climate experts looking for similar events.
      “Climate scientists are monitoring this with amazement,” said Cai Wenju, a principal CSIRO research scientist who has published widely on the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern. “We only understand what we have seen.”…

      Currently, the area of most anomalous warmth is located about 7000 kilometres west of the area where El Ninos are typically centred. They also tend to appear in the late autumn to winter period for the southern hemisphere.

      “All these are very different from a classic El Nino,” Dr Cai said.

      Would love to hear your thoughts on it, Robert Scribbler. Maybe you already have new article in the works regarding this puzzling evidence.

      Reply
      • “All these are very different from a classic El Nino,” Dr Cai said.

        ‘Currently, the area of most anomalous warmth is located about 7000 kilometres west of the area where El Ninos are typically centred.’

        -These, coupled with the hugeness of the robust (another R) RRR intuits me to think they may be connected — or maybe it’s just the timing.

        Reply
      • I like to think The last El Niño article may have nudged a few scientists with the various hints dropped. Trying to be a little more subtle while keeping the same urgency.

        But, yes, I have a bit to say RE the early season onset of this particular ‘El Niño’. What we may be looking at is a much longer term event than is typical. I don’t want to speculate too much more until I get more facts nailed down. But consider the synoptic meridional patterns as a potential teleconnection all the way from equator to pole in not one, but two planetary wave patterns. In conjunction, this week, we see a widening of the trades into the 30 lat region and a WWB at gale force intensity this evening as MJO starts its predicted run.

        The Pacific appears to be firing up for sometime quite unusual. Generating a kind of ocean-atmosphere heat chimney.

        On my plate:

        Arctic Methane — Appropriate Concern (quite a few hours in on this one yesterday and today)
        Mega droughts
        El Niño
        Solar + Storage Grid Parity
        Wind High Capacity Factor

        Reply
        • climatehawk1

           /  March 7, 2015

          >> “The Pacific appears to be firing up for sometime quite unusual. Generating a kind of ocean-atmosphere heat chimney.”

          Worth noting that the science fiction novel “Mother of Storms,” by John Barnes, focuses on the impact of a preemptive nuclear missile strike aimed at weapons hidden in the Arctic. It liberates massive amounts of methane, and one of the results is a permanent super-typhoon in the Pacific.

      • eleggua

         /  March 7, 2015

        Cool beans. Thank you for the detailed response. I’m hungry for a serving of what’s on your plate.

        “The Pacific appears to be firing up for sometime quite unusual. Generating a kind of ocean-atmosphere heat chimney.”

        Very concerned as to what that something will be. My sense, it’s some mega-weather event or even events, likely sometime late summer. Those two cyclones that hit Australia the same day a few weeks ago and the two hurricanes that hit Hawaii around the same time mid-summer last year seem harbingers of that mega-event. My sense is far, far less informed than yours – constantly ramping up to try and keep up – , so am looking forward to your El Nino article. As well as the others you noted above, of course. Particularly the Methane piece.

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 8, 2015

        “a permanent super-typhoon in the Pacific.”

        Is that theoretically possible?

        Reply
  35. Wow!

    http://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/inline_all/public/perc_20142015_2014_610.jpg?itok=QHNfW27H

    “he figures above show how the last two rainy seasons compare to rainy seasons dating back to 1979. In 2013-2014, September through April rainfall was the driest rainy season since at least 1979 over a large area covering São Paulo and the state of Minas Gerais, where much of the country’s reservoirs are located. The extent of the dryness during the 2013-2014 rainy season would normally be hard to top. However, only one year later, the atmosphere had other ideas.

    The rainy season to date in Brazil is already well on its way to supplanting last year’s record dryness. From September 1, 2014–February 28, 2015, rainfall totals over a larger area of southeast Brazil were one of the top three driest on record, with some areas even topping the record dryness of the previous year. ”

    http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/its-supposed-be-rainy-season-brazil-so-where-has-all-water-gone

    Reply
    • Oh man is that brutal.

      Reply
      • Greg

         /  March 7, 2015

        A nice little graphic to illustrate the drought:

        Reply
        • High wringing moisture out of the São Paulo region, then dumping it in buckets at the edges. Typical atmospheric bully.

    • eleggua

       /  March 7, 2015

      Brutal, indeed. A related article from exactly one year ago, linked at the bottom of ^that^ page, deserves attention:
      ‘How drought affects carbon balance in the Amazon ‘
      March 6, 2014
      http://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/how-drought-affects-carbon-balance-amazon
      An international team of scientists found that the amount of yearly rainfall was the driving factor behind the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) taken up and released from Amazonia in 2010 and 2011. During a wet year, the Amazon forests were roughly carbon-neutral: Forests “inhaled” more carbon dioxide than they “exhaled,” but biomass burning, which releases carbon dioxide, compensated for the difference. In contrast, during a very dry year forest growth stalled and biomass burning increased, resulting in the region “exhaling” substantial amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.

      Reply
      • We really don’t want to see the Amazon switch from carbon sink to source. I’m glad they’re cracking down on deforesters, at least. Hope it’s not too late

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 7, 2015

        Brazil’s Arrested Forest Kingpin Isn’t the Only Problem Facing the Amazon
        February 27, 2015
        http://www.vice.com/read/brazils-forest-kingpins-643
        Ibama seems to have been tracking Castanha for some time—he and his family apparently owe the agency about $16 million in fines for illicit deforestation. So it’s no surprise that agency head Luciano Evaristo declared his arrest a major win in the effort to control the nation’s deforestation epidemic. Yet not everyone is as enthusiastic about the implications of the arrest as Evaristo and Ibama. Many believe that the lawless and permissive climate in Brazil’s rural forests will make it fairly easy for someone to step in and continue or even escalate Castanha’s operations unabated…

        …Castanha and his ilk aren’t the sole cause of the recent uptick in deforestation. They’re conjured into existence by an increasingly lax legal environment and market demands, unchecked by the supposedly hawkeyed and environmentally-minded state….

        “I don’t regret deforesting land,” the New York Times quoted Castanha as saying in 2014. “If it weren’t for deforestation, Brazil would not exist.”

        …if the Brazilian government really wants to stop Amazonian deforestation, they’d have to think seriously about how to disincentivize clear-cutting by smallholders, choking off mafias’ collaborators. Barring that, this is just a Hydra problem, with each Castanha eliminated birthing a handful of other abusers to fill his place.

        Reply
      • And… We have 15-20 foot waves pounding the ice on both sides of the Arctic now — Bering and Barents.

        Reply
  36. eleggua

     /  March 7, 2015

    Folks, please allow me to point out that Robert Scribbler’s work here is a labor of love, an unpaid labor of love.
    From what I gather, he has to do other work to pay the bills. Robert never solicits donations for this work here, bless his heart.

    There is a donation link on the front page of this blog.
    Fourth box down from the top, on the right hand side. Beautiful black raven below this text:
    “Please Help Support Our Ongoing Efforts”.
    Click that box and you’re taken to a Paypal page where it easy enough to enter a donation with or without a Paypal account.
    I think of it as “kissing the corvid.”

    If Robert were able to do this work full-time, we’d all be better off. The planet will be better off for it; we all know that. Please, let’s do our best to help make that a reality. Of course, not every one of us can afford to donate; our comments are valuable, too. Some of us, though, can certainly afford at least a little something. There’s no minimum requirement for donation.
    It’s likely that some of us can afford a bit more than a little.

    Robert, I hope that you don’t find this entreaty offensive. I love what you do and hope that you’re able to reach a much, much larger audience ASAP. PYSKE!!!

    Now, pardon me while I put my money where my mouth is.

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  March 7, 2015

      Thank you eleggua for pointing this out. It is so easy to overlook. I know that I am forever indebted to Robert and all of his followers for teaching me so much about what is going on at the time when I most needed to know.

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 7, 2015

        You’re welcome. We’re all in this (blog and planet) together.

        Reply
  37. Andy in San Diego

     /  March 7, 2015

    Utah – “Water year looks grim; snowpack already melting ”

    http://www.sltrib.com/news/2250214-155/water-year-looks-grim-snowpack-already

    Reply
  38. Andy in San Diego

     /  March 7, 2015

    Washington State – “Low snowpack prompts power concerns for utilities”

    http://www.king5.com/story/news/local/2015/03/04/snow-pack-and-power/24407269/

    Reply
    • JPL

       /  March 7, 2015

      Andy, as long as the Canadian headwaters of the Columbia River are in good shape, we in Washington State are fat, dumb and happy.

      I would also like to say that IMHO, the climate reanalyzer 7 day northern hemisphere temp anomaly animation, where you can visualize the heat squeezing out the cold in the Arctic has been *hands down* the most effective way for me of communicating to people what we’re up against. It is the truth – irrefutable and undeniable. And unsettling as hell.

      John

      Reply
      • But, I wonder, JPL — how long the Columbia Icefields will hold out.

        Reply
      • Athabasca Glacier 1907-1998

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 7, 2015

        Yikes. What’s it look like now, 17 years after ^that shot?

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 7, 2015

        The Athabasca Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains is probably the easiest glacier in the world to access by car. It’s just a few hundred metres’ stroll from the nearest parking lot on the magnificent Icefields Parkway in Alberta. The problem is, the stroll keeps getting longer by about 10 metres every year. Since 1992, the snout of the glacier has retreated about 200 metres, requiring tourists anxious to set foot on the glacier to walk a little further. The glacier has lost about 2 km of its length since 1844.

        Reply
  39. Apneaman

     /  March 7, 2015

    Reply
  40. eleggua

     /  March 7, 2015

    Tonight on HBO:
    http://www.broadwayworld.com/bwwtv/article/VIDEO-Sneak-Peek-HBO-News-Magazine-VICE-Returns-for-Season-3-Tonight-20150306

    Show #23
    FRIDAY, MARCH 6 (11:00-11:45 p.m. ET/PT)
    Other HBO playdates: March 6 (1:40 a.m.), 7 (2:20 a.m.), 9 (3:15 a.m.) and 12 (12:30 a.m.)
    HBO2 playdates: March 7 (8:45 p.m.), 8 (5:45 p.m.), 9 (10:30 p.m.), 11 (12:45 a.m.) and 19 (11:00 p.m.)

    The oceans are rising. With human use of hydrocarbons skyrocketing, waters around the globe are getting hotter, and now this warm sub-surface water is washing into Antarctica’s massive western glaciers, causing them to retreat and break off. Antarctica holds 90% of the world’s ice and 70% of its freshwater, so if even a small fraction of the ice sheet in Antarctica melts, the resulting sea level rise will completely remap the world as we know it – and it is already happening. In the last decade, some of the most significant glaciers here have tripled their melt rate.

    VICE founder Shane Smith travels to the bottom of the world to investigate the instability of the West Antarctic ice sheet and see firsthand how the continent is melting. VICE also follows the rising oceans to Bangladesh for a glimpse into the world’s underwater future. From the UN Climate conference to the People’s Climate March to the forces that deny the Science of global climate change, this special extended report covers all sides of the issue and all corners of the globe, ending in a special interview with Vice President Joe Biden.

    Reply
  41. – This is great: “Postreproductive individuals act as repositories of ecological knowledge,”

    As per a new study menopausal female killer whales are good leaders who help younger ones of the community to find food especially in the years in which their prey is very much scarce. According to the findings the older females end up living long up to forty years longer than the male killer whales. And due to the knowledge they have about the food, the whole group succeeds to survive.

    “Postreproductive individuals act as repositories of ecological knowledge,” the study’s authors write.

    http://www.smnweekly.com/killer-whales-leads-the-group-and-find-them-food-after-menopausal/19791/

    Reply
  42. eleggua

     /  March 7, 2015

    Yay! Hooray for Chai Jing!

    ‘Environmental Issues Top Major Legislative Meeting in China’
    MARCH 7, 2015
    http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/03/07/world/asia/ap-as-china-congress-environment.html?_r=0
    China’s severe environmental problems and government pledges to fix them have dominated the start of the country’s closely watched annual legislative meeting this week, as leaders try to ease public worries about air, water and soil contamination that threatens to derail China’s economic rise.

    Two days into the session of the National People’s Congress in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to “punish, with an iron hand, any violators who destroy the ecology or environment, with no exceptions,” according to the official Xinhua News Agency. At the meeting’s opening event a day earlier, Premier Li Keqiang swore the government would cut back on major pollutants and improve energy efficiency

    “They’ve made a big deal about air pollution in the last couple of (legislative meetings),” said Alvin Lin, the Beijing-based China climate and energy policy director of the U.S.-based environmental group the Natural Resources Defense Council. “‘Under the Dome’ made it so they really really have to talk about it.”..

    The depth of public passion about China’s ailing environment became crystal clear this week with the release of the 104-minute documentary by Chai Jing, a former state television network reporter. More than 175 million people viewed the film online in just a few days, unleashing rare public debate about the state of the country’s environment….

    “I don’t think it’s lip service,” Lin said. “I think they’ll continue to push on this.”

    Reply
  43. Kevin Jones

     /  March 7, 2015

    With knowledge, wisdom and authority, I assured my neighbor yesterday that that morning (-8F) was the last below zero (F) day we would see till next December. (-2F this a.m. ….)

    Reply
  44. Kevin Jones

     /  March 7, 2015

    Reporting 3/6/15 NSIDC extent and CT area both still heading south (I mean north) Antarctica slightly south (I mean south🙂 )

    Reply
  45. – It was up for awhile in China, but still on Youtube so far. Definitely a propaganda skirmish going on. CC is a bigger battle ground with more forces allied against us.
    Fight on with the hard and simple truths we know and love..

    China Blocks Web Access to ‘Under the Dome’ Documentary on Pollution

    BEIJING — “Under the Dome,” a searing documentary about China’s catastrophic air pollution, had hundreds of millions of views on Chinese websites within days of its release one week ago.

    The country’s new environment minister compared it to “Silent Spring,” the landmark 1962 book that energized the environmental movement in the United States. Domestic and foreign journalists clamored to interview the filmmaker, a famous former television reporter, though she remained silent.

    Then on Friday afternoon, the momentum over the video came to an abrupt halt, as major Chinese video websites deleted it under orders from the Communist Party’s central propaganda department.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/07/world/asia/china-blocks-web-access-to-documentary-on-nations-air-pollution.html?_r=0

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 7, 2015

      dt, did you see the piece I posted above regarding China’s new public stance vs. polluters and pollutants?

      The blocking of Chai Jing’s video is not so much about a lack of concern for environmental issues.
      China’s leaders are more concerned about the potential for Chai Jing’s video sparking a new People’s Revolution.

      Reply
  46. -Me the photographer, and sky/atmosphere watcher, noticed this: “gravitational lensing.” Which involves ‘lensing’ (Duh.) — but I am thinking of present day and real time atmospheric lensing going on overhead as it effects ice and climate, etc.

    Astronomers using NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope have spotted for the first time a distant supernova split into four images by cosmic lens.

    The multiple images of the exploding star are caused by the powerful gravity of a foreground elliptical galaxy embedded in a massive cluster of galaxies.

    This unique observation will help astronomers refine their estimates of the amount and distribution of dark matter in the lensing galaxy and cluster, researchers said.

    Dark matter cannot be seen directly but is believed to make up most of the universe’s mass.

    The gravity from both the elliptical galaxy and the galaxy cluster distorts and magnifies the light from the supernova behind them, an effect called gravitational lensing.

    http://www.financialexpress.com/article/lifestyle/science/hubble-sees-supernova-split-into-four-images/51128/

    Reply
  47. eleggua

     /  March 7, 2015

    ‘How a Chinese Billionaire Got Invested in Nicaragua’s Canal Plan’
    3/06/2015
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/03/06/how-a-chinese-billionaire-got-invested-in-nicaraguas-canal-plan/
    Is a canal in Nicaragua economically sound, environmentally responsible or even necessary, particularly given the near completion of the widening of the Panama Canal? The answers are mixed and often depend who is doing the assessment and from what perspective. The man behind the attempt, Wang Jing, may no longer be sure of the answers himself….

    …he cost estimates for the canal construction continue to rise; they are currently at upward of $50 billion and by some estimates are likely to reach $100 billion…

    …the canal itself is not the only prize. Wang’s vision includes the expansion of Nicaraguan ports, the establishment of new tourism venues to rival nearby Costa Rica, and the creation of new free trade zones in Nicaragua to take advantage of its location for manufacturing and distribution. With China slowly losing its place as the primary source of international low-end manufacturing, a Chinese-backed free trade zone in Nicaragua could take advantage of regional low labor costs and the nearness to larger Mexican, South American and U.S. markets. Stratfor counts Nicaragua among our so-called Post-China 16 countries, those positioned to take advantage of the changes in global manufacturing supply chains…

    ///(Wang) has spent by some estimates more than $5 billion of his own money as well as that of his family and friends, whom he solicited early to capitalize the project…

    Interestingly, despite the obvious questions about Wang and Chinese involvement, the Chinese government does not seem to be involved directly. Wang has worked somewhat outside the normal channels of Chinese political networks, and Beijing has been cautious about the project from the start. Beijing has no formal diplomatic relations with Nicaragua; rather, Nicaragua is one of the few nations left that maintains formal recognition of Taiwan. In 2012, as news of the canal construction heated up, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce cautioned Chinese companies, noting the lack of diplomatic ties in addition to border issues between Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Beijing is not interested at this time in drawing Nicaragua to alter diplomatic relations to the mainland, since that would undermine Beijing’s management of the Taiwan issue….

    …Chinese leaders are cautious about engaging in a project that clearly appears to challenge U.S. interests in the region — particularly given the high cost and minimal rewards of the Nicaraguan canal.

    This article was originally published by Stratfor, a leading global intelligence and advisory firm based in Austin, Texas.

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 7, 2015

      http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2012/mar/01/stratfor-wikileaks-obama-administration
      The Stratfor emails will be released over time, along with context provided by WikiLeaks’ media partners. Already revealed by the documents are the close, and potentially illegal, connections between Stratfor employees and government-intelligence and law-enforcement officials. Rolling Stone magazine reports that the US Department of Homeland Security was monitoring Occupy Wall Street protests nationally, and the Texas Department of Public Safety has an undercover agent at Occupy Austin who was disclosing information to contacts at Stratfor.

      Stratfor also is hired by multinational corporations to glean “intelligence” about critics. Among companies using Stratfor were Dow Chemical, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and Coca-Cola.

      Fred Burton, Stratfor’s vice-president of intelligence, and a former head of counterintelligence at the US State Department’s diplomatic corps, wrote in an email, “Not for Pub – We have a sealed indictment on Assange. Pls protect.” Burton and others at Stratfor showed intense interest in WikiLeaks starting in 2010, showing intense dislike for Assange personally. Burton allegedly wrote: “Assange is going to make a nice bride in prison. Screw the terrorist. He’ll be eating cat food forever.” According to another leaked email, a Stratfor employee wanted Assange waterboarded. In a statement, Stratfor would neither confirm nor deny the provenance of the leaked material….

      Reply
      • Apneaman

         /  March 8, 2015

        Stratfor Is a Joke and So Is Wikileaks for Taking It Seriously
        Max Fisher Feb 27 2012, 4:18 PM ET

        The corporate research firm has branded itself as a CIA-like “global intelligence” firm, but only Julian Assange and some over-paying clients are fooled.

        http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/02/stratfor-is-a-joke-and-so-is-wikileaks-for-taking-it-seriously/253681/

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 8, 2015

        Interesting. However…from the comments:

        John C. ‘Buck’ Field • 3 years ago
        [Disclaimer: I’ve done work for StratFor.]
        If Mr. Fisher has evidence that Stratfor predictions and analysis contains a higher percentage of errors than that from the CIA, it would be legitimate evidence supporting the crux of this article, but my guess is that would involve to much actual time, effort, and tabulating, and such things tend to be boring for most of us.

        thechicagodude • 3 years ago
        Stratfor might be a joke but I’m certainly not going to take some guys word for it whose only evidence is someone else’s anti-Wikileaks post at FP.

        mic • 3 years ago
        Isn’t it IINNTTEERREESSTTIINNGG that the Christain Science Monitor and the Atlantic come out with identically titled stories regarding JA and this mega leak? This is CIA boilerplate. Expect more rubbish like this article. “Despicable”, as Hillary would say !….

        Flight_of_za_Drones • 3 years ago
        This article is bogus. Only a moron will tell you that 5 million emails between an information oriented business, and it’s clientele is worthless. STRATFOR may be a joke, as is evident by their seemingly lax information security practices, their pompous attitude towards REAL intelligence organizations etc. HOWEVER they did communicate with people who are not JOKERS, and that is what makes this information relevant, and interesting.

        pabarge • 3 years ago
        Hah hah hah!! TheAtlantic is calling someone else a joke.

        Reply
  48. eleggua

     /  March 7, 2015

    ‘Brazil Petrobras scandal: Top politicians accused’
    6 March 2015
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-31775677
    Brazil’s Supreme Court has approved the investigation of dozens of politicians for their alleged involvement in a kickback scheme at the state-run oil firm Petrobras.
    Investigators allege private firms paid corrupt officials in order to get lucrative Petrobras contracts….

    But President Dilma Rousseff has been completely cleared of any involvement in the scheme.
    She chaired the board of Petrobras for seven years when much of the corruption is believed to have taken place….

    The scandal has meant Petrobras, one of the largest oil businesses in the world, has lost much of its market value since September.
    Analysts say because Petrobras has not yet been able to say exactly how much money it has lost to corruption, no-one knows for sure how much its assets are really worth.

    Reply
  49. eleggua

     /  March 7, 2015

    ‘Week of Actions against GMO Trees in Brazil Ends in Success ‘
    March 6, 2015
    http://geneticliteracyproject.org/2015/03/06/anti-gmo-peasant-activists-destroy-gm-trees-in-brazil/

    Reply
  50. eleggua

     /  March 7, 2015

    ‘Habitat degradation and climate shifts impact survival of the White-collared Manakin’
    March 6, 2015
    http://phys.org/news/2015-03-habitat-degradation-climate-shifts-impact.html To better understand the interacting effects of habitat degradation and climate on bird populations, researchers from the U.S. Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station (PSW), Klamath Bird Observatory, and Costa Rica Bird Observatories spent 12 years studying the White-collared Manakin, a fruit-eating tropical bird, in mature and young forests along the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica. During the study, several El Niño and La Niña events—cycles of warm and cold ocean temperatures that influence air temperature and precipitation—resulted in very marked dry and wet annual conditions that allowed researchers to measure differences in manakin survival relative to climatic shifts.

    In young tropical forests, researchers found dramatic decreases in manakins’ survival during dry weather associated with El Niño. Researchers believe that, due to a sparser canopy and their fragmented nature, the young forests were more susceptible to understory drying that reduced fruit production. Conversely, manakins’ survival rates were higher during wet years associated with La Niña events in these young forests where increased moisture and sun exposure likely led to an abundance of fruit resources. In mature forests, researchers observed very stable manakin survival rates regardless of climatic shifts, suggesting a relatively constant abundance of fruit resources.
    “The complex structure of mature forest is thought to serve as a climatic refuge, buffering fruiting plants from climatic changes resulting in stable manakin survival,” says Jared Wolfe, a postdoctoral researcher with PSW and Klamath Bird Observatory and the study’s lead author. “Climatic refuges, such as mature tropical forests, may be important for many resident tropical bird species faced with the decreasing availability of mature forests coupled with increases in the severity of El Niño-associated dryness.”

    These study results represent the first published documentation of El Niño’s influence on the survival of a resident tropical landbird….
    “From a management perspective, understanding how climatic events affect biodiversity is critical for the development of science-based conservation strategies,” says Pablo Elizondo, the Costa Rica Bird Observatories’ executive director and co-author of the study.

    Reply
  51. Colorado Bob

     /  March 7, 2015

    Twin tropical cyclones possible next week
    The incipient El Niño could get a shot in the arm from a major westerly wind burst that models are consistently developing next week around 5°S in the western Pacific. As they push against the prevailing east-to-west trades, westerly wind bursts can help nudge the ocean-atmosphere linkage toward the direction of El Niño. The atmospheric set-up that favors a westerly wind burst can also encourage the development of twin tropical cyclones to its north and south, and models are indicating this may also occur next week. In fact, multiple runs of the GFS and ECMWF models are suggesting that a tropical cyclone east of Australia could become one of the strongest on record for that region. It’s far too soon to take any model forecast literally, with the event still nearly a week out, but the consistency across multiple models lends credence to the idea of a powerful cyclone that could threaten islands in the southwest Pacific north of New Zealand sometime late next week.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2928

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  March 7, 2015

      Today’s GFS is forecasting 859mb late next week for the storm off NZ. Hopefully it is wrong.

      Reply
  52. Colorado Bob

     /  March 7, 2015

    Test –

    https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?p=geographic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines(hidden)&t=2015-03-05&v=-113.4129,-74.0759,-101.5805,-70.9283

    Reply
  53. eleggua

     /  March 8, 2015

    All-time record lows for March:
    Frankfort, KY: –10°F (old record –3°F, Mar. 7, 1960)
    Urbana, IL: –7°F (old record –5°F, set Mar. 1906)
    Paducah, KY: –6°F (old record –2°F, last set Mar. 6, 1960)
    Pittsburgh, PA: –4°F (old record –1°F, last set Mar. 2, 1980)
    Lexington, KY: –2°F (tied old record, last set Mar. 6 ,1960)
    Harrisburg, PA: 0°F (old record 5°F, last set Mar. 10, 1984)

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  March 8, 2015

      I’m sure these record lows will be touted for years by the deniers.

      Reply
  54. eleggua

     /  March 8, 2015

    Once Again, A Record-Hot Winter for California’
    March 6th, 2015
    California, Utah, Arizona, Nevada, and Washington each saw their hottest winter on record, according to data released Friday by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
    For California, this winter eclipsed the previous record set just last year…

    “The state is already off to a large head start compared to last year,” NCDC climatologist Jake Crouch said in an email. “While it is too early to speculate on whether California will see another record warm year, 2015 is off to an impressive start.”

    Eight states in the West had at least a top 10 warmest winter, including the five that saw their record hottest. Several western cities, including Reno, Nev., Fresno, Calif., Portland, Ore., Sacramento, Calif., Tucson, Ariz., and San Francisco, also had chart-topping winters…

    Kathie Dello, deputy director of the Oregon Climate Service at Oregon State University, said…“I think this winter has been such a wake-up call — people are realizing that we need to have some really tough conversations about our future and water supply.”

    Reply
  55. eleggua

     /  March 8, 2015

    Snowpack change, 1955 – 2014

    Reply
  56. Andy in San Diego

     /  March 8, 2015

    An interesting (tad dry) read on how the fight to remove Lead from gasoline follows the same routine as we’ve seen with tobacco and climate change. In the 1930, the game play was cause doubt and confusion, hire “experts” to create fake/doctored/cherry picked “science” in order to do your bidding.

    “Thus, the threat of gasoline lead to public health remained essentially neglected and unappreciated for well over 30 years. ”

    It is the same tactic from the same playbook.

    http://www.columbia.edu/itc/sipa/envp/louchouarn/courses/env-chem/Pb-Rise&Fall%28Nriagu1990%29.pdf

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 8, 2015

      Thanks for posting that, Andy. Wasn’t aware of the details. ^That^ pdf is at least a tad dry and a lot tech-heavy; this Wired piece distills some of the info, covering a lot of the same ground.

      Looney Gas and Lead Poisoning: A Short, Sad History 01.05.13 http://www.wired.com/2013/01/looney-gas-and-lead-poisoning-a-short-sad-history/
      …..men working at the plant quickly gave it the “loony gas” tag because anyone who spent much time handling the additive showed stunning signs of mental deterioration, from memory loss to a stumbling loss of coordination to sudden twitchy bursts of rage. And then in October of 1924, workers in the TEL building began collapsing, going into convulsions, babbling deliriously. By the end of September, 32 of the 49 TEL workers were in the hospital; five of them were dead…..

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 8, 2015

      This timeline maybe useful:
      Timeline of leaded gasoline
      http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Leaded_gasoline#Timeline_of_leaded_gasoline

      Reply
    • Then there are the ‘civil’ aviators still using leaded avgas:

      Leaded Fuel Is a Thing of the Past—Unless You Fly a Private Plane

      … Some 167,000 piston engine aircraft—about three-quarters of private planes in the United States—are still spewing lead into our air. That’s because their fuel, known as avgas, uses the same tetraethyl lead addictive since banned in automobile gas, making it the No. 1 source of lead emissions in America. (The jet fuel used in big passenger planes does not contain lead.) Lead-free alternatives are available for most piston engine aircraft, but the phaseout of leaded fuel has been slow. Last June, the FAA finally created the Fuels Program Office to replace leaded avgas by 2018—24 years after it was banned in automobiles.

      Leaded avgas emits only a small fraction of the lead once coughed out by cars, but it disproportionately affects people living near the 20,000 airports where it’s used.

      http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2012/12/private-planes-still-use-leaded-gasoline

      Reply
  57. Here’s a nice short video I did of falling snow (not the usual view) in Flagstaff, AZ a couple years ago. It’s peaceful with impact. Take a look if you have time.

    Reply
    • Mark from New England

       /  March 8, 2015

      Very nice DT. I went to college at NAU for one year back in 1979-80. That was one of the snowiest winters I remember. The San Francisco peaks make a beautiful backdrop for the city. Those Ponderosa Pines forests are very flammable though.

      Reply
  58. Andy in San Diego

     /  March 8, 2015

    Water, Water, Everywhere: Sea Level Rise in Miami – University Of Miami

    “Over the past 15 years, the average high tide has increased by 0.30″/year, but over just the past 5 years, the high tide has increased at an average rate of 1.27″/year.”

    http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/blog/2014/10/03/sea-level-rise-in-miami/

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  March 8, 2015

      Terms such as ‘climate change,’ ‘global warming’ were outlawed, former Florida DEP employees say (w/video)

      DEP officials have been ordered not to use the terms “climate change” or “global warming” in any official communications, emails, or reports, according to former DEP employees, consultants, volunteers and records obtained by the Florida Center for Investigative Reporting.

      “We were told not to use the terms ‘climate change,’ ‘global warming’ or ‘sustainability,’ ” said Christopher Byrd, an attorney with the Florida Department of Environmental Protection’s Office of General Counsel in Tallahassee from 2008 to 2013. “That message was communicated to me and my colleagues by our superiors.”

      Kristina Trotta, a former DEP employee in Miami, said her supervisor told her not to use the terms “climate change” and “global warming” in a 2014 staff meeting.

      http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/terms-such-as-climate-change-global-warming-were-outlawed-former-florida/2220488

      Reply
      • climatehawk1

         /  March 8, 2015

        >>”Terms such as ‘climate change,’ ‘global warming’ were outlawed, former Florida DEP employees say (w/video)”

        Thanks, tweet scheduled on this.

        Reply
      • Mark from New England

         /  March 8, 2015

        Wow. If I worked for the Florida DEP I hope I’d be brave enough to test this stupid rule in a document I was writing. And how ironic that Florida from Lake Oke… south could be under the sea by the end of this century.

        Reply
      • Thanks, CB. We definitely need more of these insights and ‘leaks’. I’ll bet almost every official agency has similar workings.

        Reply
      • rustj2015

         /  March 8, 2015

        Not so blatant as news censorship, but much more effective collusion [including that great silence of mass delete, one example:

        To replace the energy the units produced, PNM had to come up with a plan that is cost-effective for ratepayers who will be footing the bill for the replacement power. The PNM plan calls for increasing its use of coal in the remaining units and utilizing more nuclear energy, along with smaller amounts of natural gas and a small amount of solar power.
        Instead of trusting PNM, New Energy Economy spent $17,000 to lease Strategist®, the same proprietary program that PNM used, and hired an energy expert to analyze PNM’s methodology. The expert concluded that PNM manipulated the outcome of its analysis by omitting things like capital expenditures, and using constraints that would not let the program choose energy sources other than those the company wanted to utilize.

        According to Nanasi, when Strategist® ran without constraints, PNM’s own analysis indicated that shutting the plant down completely would be the best economic solution. ”Our expert found that if the plant is closed by 2018 — and other energy sources like renewables were made available — the ratepayers would save $300 million over 20 years,” Nanasi said. “Our analysis concluded that ratepayers should not be investing anything further in coal because renewables and gas could be used — not because it is best for climate, jobs creation, and water reduction, but because it is cheaper than coal.”

        New Energy Economy also uncovered more than a $1.1 billion discrepancy in PNM’s project costs, projections the company acknowledged as an “error.” It also revealed that a “core group” of the state commissioners’ staff members who support PNM’s plan are former PNM employees, and may have conflicts of interest.

        http://www.desmogblog.com/2015/03/07/will-new-mexico-double-down-dirty-energy

        Reply
      • Dave Person

         /  March 9, 2015

        Hi DT,
        Yes, most state governments have some sort of office that compiles comments by various agencies concerning development or other environmental issues, usually within the context of issuing permits or statewide reports. The groups often are called something like “office of governmental coordination”. In reality, they censor politically unpopular comments from government employees involved with those issues and provide the state with a “one voice” response to the public or permittees. The “one voice” gets captured by whatever political ideology is in power and thus government oversight becomes partisan and usually ineffective at protecting and conserving natural resources and the environment.

        dave

        Reply
  59. Kevin Jones

     /  March 8, 2015

    l.27″/yr = 12.7″/ decade = +3 meters/century……

    Reply
  60. Colorado Bob

     /  March 8, 2015

    A Sea of People Fighting for Water in Sao Paulo
    Saturday, 07 March 2015

    These sacred luxury consumer temples (where the water tanks are always full), lowered their doors before the the march that brought together 15 thousand men, women and children – a significant part dressing in MTST (Workers Homeless Movement)’s t-shirts – in addition to other left wing organizations protesting on Thursday (26/02) against the water crisis in São Paulo.

    http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/29446-a-sea-of-people-fighting-for-water-in-sao-paulo#

    Reply
    • climatehawk1

       /  March 8, 2015

      >> “These sacred luxury consumer temples (where the water tanks are always full), lowered their doors before the the march that brought together 15 thousand men, women and children … ”

      Thanks, tweeted. Weird, though–the story seems to be missing its first paragraph(s).

      Reply
  61. Colorado Bob

     /  March 8, 2015

    Greenland Reels: Climate Disrupting Feedbacks Have Begun
    Thursday, 05 March 2015

    Greenland is warmer than it has been in more than 100,000 years and climate disrupting feedback loops have begun. Since 2000, ice loss has increased over 600 percent, and liquid water now exists inside the ice sheet year-round, no longer refreezing during winter.

    Melt and ice loss dynamics from Greenland are far more complicated than we understood just a few years ago. New discoveries have been made that add large uncertainties as to exactly how fast ice melt and iceberg discharge will increase in the future. Over the last decade, continued research into the rate of ice loss in Greenland has downplayed any rapid acceleration of current melt rates. New discoveries could be changing our understanding of this last decade’s work.

    http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/29462-greenland-reels-climate-disrupting-feedbacks-have-begun

    Reply
    • climatehawk1

       /  March 8, 2015

      >> “Greenland Reels: Climate Disrupting Feedbacks Have Begun”

      Thanks, tweet scheduled.

      Reply
  62. Colorado Bob

     /  March 8, 2015

    It is our great collective misfortune that the scientific community made its decisive diagnosis of the climate threat at the precise moment when an elite minority was enjoying more unfettered political, cultural, and intellectual power than at any point since the 1920s
    Naomi Klein

    The second in a major series of articles on the climate crisis and how humanity can solve it. In this extract taken from the Introduction to This Changes Everything by Naomi Klein, the author calls the climate crisis a civilisational wake-up call to alter our economy, our lifestyles, now – before they get changed for us.

    Link

    Reply
  63. Colorado Bob

     /  March 8, 2015

    302. Neapolitan
    4:10 PM GMT on March 08, 2015

    Both Cryosphere Today Arctic sea ice area and JAXA Arctic sea ice extent are the lowest ever for the date, meaning that the much-hoped-for “recovery” will have to wait a while longer.

    Reply
    • Andy in San Diego

       /  March 8, 2015

      Yep,

      Checked this morning and no sign of a late season bounce yet.

      I’ve been reading the conflicting statements from the republican reps.

      1) There is no global warming, no climate change it’s a 150 year old plot
      2) In fact, the Arctic Ice coverage is growing so we should worry about an ice age if anything
      3) We need to build Ice Breakers because the ocean is opening up in the Arctic and the oil companies need them.
      4) Resources are becoming available due to less ice in the Arctic and we need to protect them.

      Statements (1), (2) (3) & (4) just don’t seem to dovetail into a well woven train of thought no matter how one rearranges them.

      Reply
      • climatehawk1

         /  March 8, 2015

        Ha, that is like another meme being circulated on Twitter that is a cartoon with various wildly conflicting statements from individual scientists made over a 30-40 year period. The last time I saw it, I responded “Haha, yeah, who could believe such a silly bunch is masterminding a global conspiracy to take over the world?” No response.🙂

        Reply
  64. Ten Found Not Guilty for ‘Flood Wall Street’ Civil Disobedience, NYPD Violated First Amendment; Judge Takes Judicial Notice of Climate Change

    NEW YORK, NY – Ten climate activists have been found “not guilty” of criminal charges stemming from the Flood Wall Street protest. New York City Criminal Court Judge Robert Mandelbaum ruled that the NYPD’s order to disperse violated the First Amendment.

    Following the historic September 21 People’s Climate March, several thousand people took to the street in the Financial District to identify and protest against Wall Street’s central role in fueling climate destruction. At the end of the day, 102 people were arrested for sitting in the street at the intersection of Broadway and Wall. Ten of the arrestees subsequently decided to fight their charges in court.

    In his ruling, Judge Robert Mandelbaum found that the NYPD’s order to disperse was unlawful, and that by ordering protesters to leave the entire Wall Street area, police violated protesters’ First Amendment right to carry their message directly to its intended recipients: the Wall Street bankers who bankroll climate change.

    Defense Attorney Jonathan Wallace successfully argued that the Constitution protects citizen’s rights to express political speech within proximity to the target of the protest.

    http://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2015/03/06/ten-found-not-guilty-flood-wall-street-civil-disobedience-nypd-violated-first

    Reply
  65. -“Send in the clowns…”

    How to Die of Dumb

    Sen. James Inhofe, Republican of Oklahoma since 1994, took to the floor of the Senate the other day with a snowball in a bag. Because it was cold in Washington DC, he said, because there was snow on the ground, that proves climate change is a hoax. “In case we had forgotten,” he said, pulling the snowball from the sack, “because we keep hearing that 2014 has been the warmest year on record, I ask the chair, do you know what this is? It’s a snowball, just from outside here. It’s very, very cold out.” He went on to denounce what he called the “hysteria on global warming,” and then threw the snowball at the presiding officer.

    James Inhofe – who believes snow in DC disproves climate change – is the chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works committee, because of course he is. He won with 57 percent of the vote in his last re-election campaign, because of course he did.

    I don’t have an easy answer for how to deal with this. How to explain people like Inhofe and McConnell, how to explain people who have voluntarily returned them to Congress for a combined total of 52 years, would require a political, economic and sociological treatise that I have neither the space nor the time to compile at this juncture. The short version, however, is that our cannibalistic economic model, indifferent news media, sagging voter turnout, general cynicism, religious derangement and fundamental addiction to a cognitive dissonance that motivates so very many to slap aside stone-carved facts staring them in the face, is going to put this whole human experiment into a shallow, unmarked grave.

    Reply
  66. dr. strangelove – survival plan

    Reply
  67. Kevin Jones

     /  March 8, 2015

    NOAA ESRL WMD reports
    globally averaged CO2 passed 400 this January—400.14ppm (the southern hemisphere lags behind Mauna Loa which lags behind Barrow AK etc;) Rough read on Greenland, CB. Gaia’s Revenge, dtlange? Scripps Keeling curve site says the last time the world saw 400ppm co2 was 3 to 5 million years ago when sea level ranged between 16 and 131 feet higher than today. And we get a beachfront seat.

    Reply
  68. Kevin Jones

     /  March 8, 2015

    Dr. Kissinger deserved no Nobel Peace Prize but he sure deserved an Oscar for playing Peter Sellers playing Dr. Strangelove….

    Reply
    • Good one KJ.

      Ronald Reagan: “…Reagan confused the world of movies with the world outside became apparent the moment the president took office. On that day in January 1981, in the middle of a tour of the White House, Reagan asked to see the “war room” – and expressed terrible disappointment when he learned that it only existed as a set in Stanley Kubrick’s film Dr Strangelove. Yet, ironically, Reagan’s failure to distinguish between what was on-screen and what was off has had huge positive repercussions on our present-day reality.
      theguardian-com-film-2001-nov-14-artsfeatures

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 9, 2015

      Seperated at birth:

      Reply
  69. Kevin Jones

     /  March 8, 2015

    should read: globally averaged CO2 passed 400 ppm for the first month in 3 million years, this January…

    Reply
  70. Kevin Jones

     /  March 8, 2015

    …..NOAA ESRL GMD…Global Monitoring Division….. not WMD….. got distracted by the Dr. …..

    Reply
    • Dr. Merkwurdigliebe…🙂

      Reply
      • Ouse M.D.

         /  March 8, 2015

        Dam, I’m in Germany and couldn’t figure it out…

        As I’ve learned the Russians DO have a semi- automated retaliation system:

        http://rt.com/news/236573-russia-repel-nuclear-strike/

        Dead Hand or Perimeter (analyzing collected seismic, radioactive data and communication channnels)- instead of Doomsday Machine.
        Not to mention all that Methane they unfortunately happen to be sitting on

        Reply
  71. The problem of nitrogen pollution keeps ‘surfacing’.
    I am constantly finding examples of algal blooms on Portland’s urban landscape. Any surface that can hold a film of moisture exhibits some form of it.

    “Nutrient pollution’s effects on algal carbon are well known and highly visible in the form of algal blooms.”

    An important food resource has been disappearing from streams without anyone noticing until now.

    In a new study published March 6 in the journal Science, a team of researchers led by University of Georgia ecologists reports that nutrient pollution causes a significant loss of forest-derived carbon from stream ecosystems, reducing the ability of streams to support aquatic life.

    The findings show that the in-stream residence time of carbon from leaves, twigs and other forest matter, which provide much of the energy that fuels stream food webs, is cut in half when moderate amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus are added to a stream.

    David Manning, a University of Georgia doctoral student, and John Kominoski, assistant professor at Florida International University. Credit: Jon Benstead/University of Alabama

    “This study shows how excess nutrients reduce stream health in a way that was previously unknown,” said the study’s lead author Amy D. Rosemond, an associate professor in the UGA Odum School of Ecology.

    Stream food webs are based on carbon from two main sources. One is algae, which produce carbon through photosynthesis. Nutrient pollution has long been known to increase carbon production by algae, often causing nuisance and harmful algal blooms. The second source is leaves and bits of wood from streamside forests. This forest-derived carbon typically persists year-round, making it a staple food resource for stream organisms.

    “Most people think of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution in streams as contributing to algae blooms,” said Diane Pataki, program director in the National Science Foundation’s Division of Environmental Biology, which funded the research. “But streams contain a lot of leaf litter, and this study shows that nutrient pollution can also stimulate carbon losses from streams by accelerating the breakdown of that litter. That helps us better understand how fertilizer runoff affects carbon transport and emissions from streams and rivers.”

    Nitrogen and phosphorus play essential roles in the breakdown of carbon by microbes and stream-dwelling insects and other invertebrates, but cause problems when they are present in excessive amounts–as they increasingly are. Nutrient pollution is widespread in the U.S. and globally, due primarily to land use changes like deforestation, agriculture and urbanization.

    Nutrient pollution’s effects on algal carbon are well known and highly visible in the form of algal blooms.

    http://www.sciencecodex.com/nutrient_pollution_damages_streams_in_ways_previously_unknown_ecologists_find-152253

    Reply
  72. rustj2015

     /  March 8, 2015

    Sommat funny here:
    Brand: ISIS Vs Climate Change – Which Kills More?
    https://zcomm.org/zvideo/isis-vs-climate-change-which-kills-more/
    redolent with F*x Newts so, easy targets…

    Reply
    • climatehawk1

       /  March 8, 2015

      Recurring meme on Twitter FYI: Why worry about stupid things like climate change when ISIS is beheading people? Definitely resonates with the military and gun types. Plus, recall recent polling shows climate well down list of concerns, terrorism #1. Violence and fear seem to trump rationality.

      Reply
      • rustj2015

         /  March 8, 2015

        Slight clarification: Russell Brand believes strongly that Climate Change is magnitudes worse, and believes Obama did the right thing in at least saying that, for which the dunderheads of F*x bray on about the cold and snow and how dare he…
        also,
        I wasn’t made to tweet…

        Reply
  73. America – a backward country, a backward people.
    Now hated more than ever the world over.

    This simply beggars belief:

    “Florida Department of Environmental Protection officials have been ordered not to use the term “climate change” or “global warming” in any official communications, emails, or reports, according to former DEP employees, consultants, volunteers and records obtained by the Florida Center for Investigative Reporting.”

    Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article12983720.html#storylink=cpy

    Reply
    • Crazy, isn’t it? We don’t like physics and uncomfortable facts, so we’ll ban words that reference reality so that our heads remain firmly in the sand. This happened in North Carolina too (I think, it might be South Carolina). The cities on the shoreline were concerned about future sea level rise and consulted scientists. The scientists conclusion was not what they wanted to hear, so the term “sea level rise” was banned and is not allowed to appear in any city plans.

      Reply
  74. Andy in San Diego

     /  March 8, 2015

    Not sure if everyone remembers the degraded / late monsoon in India last year? That was a non El Nino year. This led me to pondering the possibility that the climatic shifting has altered the Monsoons in a neutral year, thus leading to the possibility of a higher opportunity for further drought / degraded monsoon of a higher magnitude during what we will see now from El Ninos.

    And if so, what happens to the FAO index (and it’s subsequent social knock-on effects)?

    Of course, with all of the changes that are now baked into the cake it is tough to guesstimate what a super El Nino would do (the current revision of 98 on steroids).

    For those that are not familiar, El Nino increases precipitation on the East Coast of the pacific (west coast of the Americas), and more of a drought (reduced rainfall) in Asia / Australia. India’s monsoons can get significantly reduced by El Nino leading to crop losses.

    Reply
  75. – This guy seems to believe the swill he speaks (swill-speak?), and he has an audience.

    At a climate change denial panel at CPAC, Myron Ebell of the Competitive Enterprise Institute dismissed the threat of climate change and accused environmentalists of having a ‘sinister’ agenda.

    Reply
    • Andy in San Diego

       /  March 8, 2015

      I am always puzzled by these folks who spew this stuff.

      a) They claim there is a conspiracy.
      b) This conspiracy is to destroy capitalism / the USA / the modern world / DVD players / Cars etc…
      c) There is never a statement of what this conspiracy is ideologically driven by and why
      d) What does this 150 year old conspiracy have against the USA?
      e) How did it know 150 years ago what the USA would be 150 years later in order to create the said conspiracy
      f) Never do they say what this conspiracy wants to replace everything with and why

      The whole chain of logic stops at the word “conspiracy”

      Reply
      • rustj2015

         /  March 8, 2015

        As Eleggua indicated recently here, from Stratfor e-mails, at least, this nasty stink has more than methane emissions behind it. Terra-ists will not be welcomed until catastrophes occur, but before that, they may pay a price for their convictions.

        Reply
  76. Outgoing winter proves warmest in Russia in history of weather monitoring

    http://tass.ru/en/non-political/780560

    Reply
  77. Colorado Bob

     /  March 8, 2015

    CBS News just ran a story about the ELF , a solar powered tricycle , that has human powered input. At Duke Univ.

    Once upon a time I joined the HPVA , human powered vehicles .

    I printed the the T-Shirts for the fastest human powered vehicle on earth . It was called the “Gold Rush” . Garderner Martin when over 60 mph on a bicycle . That was over 30 years ago.

    Reply
  78. New Theory Behind Dozens of Craters Found in Siberia
    Scientists narrow down the cause and think it is related to warming.

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/02/150227-siberia-mystery-holes-craters-pingos-methane-hydrates-science/

    Reply
    • climatehawk1

       /  March 8, 2015

      Thanks, interesting. Tweet scheduled.

      Reply
    • Andy in San Diego

       /  March 9, 2015

      I’m waiting for the denialist claim that these are due to scientists with shovels and Jack Daniels. They took 1.3 seconds to state with 100% certainty that these are Pingos (which if anyone has seen one do not “eject” material) and now need a new “schtick”.

      Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  March 9, 2015

      I read this weeks ago …………… A Pingo was part of the past . They are part of the freeze / thaw cycle that dove wedges of ice to the surface.

      These are not pingos, images show clearly that a pingo did not appear before these blow outs.

      Remember, we have 46 years of images.

      Reply
      • Andy in San Diego

         /  March 9, 2015

        I lived / worked in the land of Pingos. There is a zero (or less) chance that the siberian holes are Pingos (frost heaves).

        The speed and certainty of the denial jump onto that claim shows the hilarity and desperation.

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 9, 2015

        Exactly. I recall your post, Bob. Clearly not pingos.

        Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 9, 2015

      The unusually high concentrations of methane (up to 9.6 percent) at the bottom of the crater measured in tests conducted on site in July were far higher than the norm, which is usually just 0.000179% methane. It was ultimately determined that the elevated concentrations of methane was due to the continuing increasing high temperatures in the region which contributed to the release of trapped gases and increasing underground pressurized pockets.

      Reply
    • The article contradicts itself:

      Now, scientists are arguing that the methane theory is unlikely, based on new satellite surveys released by Russian researchers that found dozens of new craters in Siberia.

      vs.

      Instead, Ruppel theorizes that the craters were formed by a sudden release of natural gas that had been stored in the permafrost but was kept under pressure by the weight of the pingo.

      Does the author not understand that natural gas and methane are the same thing?

      Reply
      • Ouse M.D.

         /  March 9, 2015

        Pffff…The problem is with the science standards estabilished:
        until a peer- reviewed paper comes out, nothing´s conclusive.
        In the times of abrupt climate change these time- consuming standards won´t do us any good.

        Reply
  79. james cole

     /  March 9, 2015

    If we do get the big Greenland melt that was spoken of in above comments, is this not the scenario of fresh water that is needed to affect the great Atlantic current that sinks with heavy salty water up in the Icelandic regions to the east? I recall some reports of a small % decrease in the current sinking rate. Is this scenario really on the table again, or still a long far off effect?

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  March 9, 2015

      There’s 80 million people that are out of drinking water , and the dry season as come.

      Brazil and California.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  March 9, 2015

        Well come to climate change.

        Reply
      • Greg

         /  March 9, 2015

        As they reduce the water pressure throughout parts of the day in Brazil and turn the pressure back on in their aging system this is what happens-leaks with sinkholes. Leaks are sprouting up all over in a system that can no longer deliver enough water to millions:

        Reply
      • Andy in San Diego

         /  March 9, 2015

        Good catch Greg.

        Reply
  80. Colorado Bob

     /  March 9, 2015

    In the end I don’t a rats fuzzy butt what you think,

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  March 9, 2015

      Greg
      March 9, 2015

      Makes perfect sense, The entire ground dries out. when water does flow . It makes holes.

      Reply
  81. Colorado Bob

     /  March 9, 2015

    There is 40 million about to run out of water, from there it get’s really bad.

    Reply
  82. Colorado Bob

     /  March 9, 2015

    I have on idea, i just know I am worn out . And faster I go the better.

    Reply
  83. Colorado Bob

     /  March 9, 2015

    One more time, as a system nears a tipping , it moves to it’s extremes. There it tends to get stuck, before swinging wildly to the other extreme.

    A hint-

    They moved the dog sled race in Alaska. Boston goes broke moving snow.

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 9, 2015

      This year, faux start in Anchorage, then an automobile ride up to Fairbanks for the real start:
      Iditarod 2015: Photos of sled dogs, mushers racing in Alaska despite lack of snow March 08, 2015
      http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2015/03/iditarod_2015_photos_of_sled_d.html
      Anchorage was still able to stage the traditional ceremonial start to the Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race. City crews overnight delivered up to 350 dump truck loads of snow and spread it out over city blocks so the show could go on. The festivities started Saturday morning in very un-Iditarod like conditions, almost 40 degrees with a light rain falling before the start….

      Once the event ends, fans and mushers, with their dogs in tow, will drive about eight hours north to Fairbanks…

      The new route will remove the hazards of the Alaska Range, including the infamous Dalzell Gorge, where many mushers crashed last year trying to control dog teams moving at breakneck speeds over barren, gravelly trails. The change will put mushers on river ice for about 600 miles, which could create new problems along the unfamiliar route.

      Reply
  84. Here’s something a bit dated from my investigative video portfolio. It’s sort of a modern day Pompeii under aerosol siege. Nature buried Pompeii but my vid shows man made dangers. (I do my own sound track.) (Certain paint finishes on Knox security lock boxes acted like magnets for black soot.) (My DT LANGE gravatar is featured.)

    43 seconds short.
    BLACK SOOT SANTA BARBARA 2011
    A very quick peek at the dark, yet very public, underbelly of a coastal community in California, and to question why it is so black. Outdoor eateries, public sidewalks nears schools, and other public areas are shown.

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 9, 2015

      dt, you could make an excellent, effective presention in grade schools. Kids get it faster than adults and pass the concern up the chain.

      Near-highway pollutants in motor vehicle exhaust:
      A review of epidemiologic evidence of cardiac and pulmonary health risks

      http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1971259/
      There is growing evidence of a distinct set of freshly-emitted air pollutants downwind from major highways, motorways, and freeways that include elevated levels of ultrafine particulates (UFP), black carbon (BC), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and carbon monoxide (CO). People living or otherwise spending substantial time within about 200 m of highways are exposed to these pollutants more so than persons living at a greater distance, even compared to living on busy urban streets. Evidence of the health hazards of these pollutants arises from studies that assess proximity to highways, actual exposure to the pollutants, or both. Taken as a whole, the health studies show elevated risk for development of asthma and reduced lung function in children who live near major highways.

      Reply
      • Thanks for the link, eleggua.
        It has some helpful descriptions of what I have seen and documented:

        “… elevated levels near highways include ultrafine particles (UFP), black carbon (BC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and carbon monoxide (CO).
        …UFP are defined as particles having an aerodynamic diameter in the range of 0.005 to 0.1 microns (um). UFP form by condensation of hot vapors in tailpipe emissions, and can grow in size by coagulation.
        PM2.5 and PM10 refer to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters of 2.5 and 10 um, respectively. BC (or “soot carbon”) is an impure form of elemental carbon that has a graphite-like structure.
        … major light-absorbing component of combustion aerosols.”

        Here’s what the above looks like as it happens at a Santa Barbara, CA location. The ‘Rule 701’ in the title credits refer to California’s designation for an ‘Air Pollution Emergency’.

        Reply
      • Ps The too short graphic at the beginning of the local air quality readings all showed green, or GOOD, levels of air pollution at the time of the video recording.

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 9, 2015

        You’re welcome, dt.

        “local air quality readings all showed green, or GOOD”
        What’s the standard of measurement?

        Reply
      • eleggua: “local air quality readings all showed green, or GOOD”
        What’s the standard of measurement?

        PPM and per cubic meter (m3) and micron size for particulate matter (PM)

        Caveat: totals and measurements apply only to the area and location of monitoring stations. These stations are very few, and farther between — by design, and funding. Ninety percent (by my guess) of any (USA) population is under monitored, and unprotected. Only the US Congress can remedy this.

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 9, 2015

        Another good question would be, do those readings even take into account soot from auto exhaust? I’ve no idea; maybe you know.

        Reply
  85. Spike

     /  March 9, 2015

    Heavy rain in Scotland has caused a 100 tonne landslide and flooding on roads across parts of the Highlands.

    The A87 landslide came after 158mm of rain fell in the area in the space of 36 hours. This saturated the slope above the road and caused about 100 tonnes of debris to slip down the hillside.

    Richard Brown, from the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, said river and loch levels in the north west had risen to some of the highest levels on record.

    He said: “The River Ness will continue to rise today as yesterday’s rain and snowmelt water works down the catchments. This may cause flooding to riverside properties in the Inverness area.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-31787527

    And gale force winds to follow on today.

    O Caledonia! stern and wild,
    Meet nurse for a poetic child!
    Land of the heath and shaggy wood,
    Land of the mountain and the flood,
    Land of my sires! what mortal hand
    Can e’er untie the filial band
    That knits me to thy rugged strand!

    Reply
  86. Earth entering new era of rapid temperature change, study warns

    Average rates of regional surface temperature change per decade for the 21st century. Based on emission scenario RCP4.5

    http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/03/earth-entering-new-era-of-rapid-temperature-change-study-warns/?utm_content=buffere711c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Reply
  87. A slight rise in Arctic ice cover today over yesterday, and I mean slight. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

    Reply
    • Yes. The major atmospheric anomalies have finally faded somewhat. But we are now in pretty substantial record low ranges for this time of year.

      Reply
      • Not much of an up-tick since, though. What are the chances of a recovery above these record low levels before the end of March?

        Reply
  1. The Worse It Gets The More They Lie | Survival Acres Blog

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