The Human-Warmed Southern Ocean Threatens Major Melt For East Antarctica

Totten Glacier. A mountainous expanse of ice in the very heart of the greatest accumulation of frozen water on Earth. A bastion of cold containing 11.5 feet worth of sea level rise if it were to melt in total. An accumulation roughly equal to half of all the frozen water in the whole of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

According to a new scientific report out this week, Totten Glacier is under threat of melt. Warm water is swelling up through troughs in the Continental Shelf zone, approaching the ice shelf locking Totten and a vast swath of interior East Antarctic glaciers. As with West Antarctica, this warm water upwelling has the potential to rapidly destabilize an already fast-moving glacier.

Totten Glacier basin

(Totten glacier outflow zone covers a massive region of East Antarctica. An area about equivalent in size to the entire US Southeast region. Warm water is starting to encroach upon an ice shelf locking this great ice mass into its Continental Catchment Basin. Image source: Australian Antarctic Division.)

Totten already hosts one of the most rapid thinning rates in East Antarctica. And, in fact, it was a satellite detection of this very thinning that set off a recent scientific investigation of the glacier’s stability. What the new scientific report identified was a threat that enhanced warm water upwelling from a human-heated circumpolar current would collide with an ice structure that is already vulnerable to melt.

The net result would mean a destabilization and acceleration of one of the greatest ice masses on the planet. Such an event would have far-reaching implications, especially relating to the pace and end state of warming-related global sea level rise.

From the abstract of Ocean Access to A Cavity Beneath Totten Glacier:

Totten Glacier… has the largest thinning rate in East Antarctica. Thinning may be driven by enhanced basal meltingWarm modified Circumpolar Deep Water, which has been linked to glacier retreat in West Antarctica, has been observed in summer and winter on the nearby continental shelf beneath 400 to 500 m of cool Antarctic Surface Water…We identify entrances to the ice-shelf cavity below depths of 400 to 500 m that could allow intrusions of warm water if the vertical structure of inflow is similar to nearby observations. Radar sounding reveals a previously unknown inland trough that connects the main ice-shelf cavity to the ocean. If thinning trends continue, a larger water body over the trough could potentially allow more warm water into the cavity, which may, eventually, lead to destabilization of the low-lying region between Totten Glacier and the similarly deep glacier flowing into the Reynolds Trough. (emphasis added)

At issue are two pathways for this upwelling, warm, deep water to follow:

totten_glacier_labeledpaths

(Topographic map of the Totten Glacier outlet region and nearby seabed. Note the vulnerable water inlets [orange lines], the inland troughs and basins [red highlights and blue topographic signature] and the rather advanced inland extent of the grounding line [white line]. Image source: Ocean Access to a Cavity Beneath Totten Glacier.)

The pathways are identified by the orange lines in the topographic image above. The lines identify underwater valleys that run out to the deeper, warmer waters accumulating on the edge of the Antarctic Continental Shelf region. As the waters rise, scientists are concerned that these troughs will act like channels, funneling a flood of much warmer than normal water beneath the belly of the great glacier.

The result is an instance of ‘global consequence.’ The authors note:

We estimate that at least 3.5 m of eustatic sea level potential drains through Totten Glacier, so coastal processes in this area could have global consequences.

Indeed. If we add in all the other destabilized glaciers around the world to Totten, should it destabilize, you end up with about 26 feet of sea level rise locked in. And that has some pretty staggering consequences when you look at impacts to the world’s coastlines.

This is what 20 feet of sea level rise impact looks like for the US Southeast and Gulf Coasts:

NASA six meter sea level rise SE

(Six meters of sea level rise would permanently inundate many of the major cities along the US Gulf and Southeastern coasts. Areas inundated shown in red. Image source: NASA.)

But, perhaps worst of all, is the fact that some of the world’s longest lasting and most stable accumulations of frozen water are now under threat of melt.

In essence, what we are witnessing is possible initiation of the end of the greatest and oldest ice province on Earth. East Antarctica glaciated 35 million years ago, when atmospheric CO2 levels fell below a range of 500-600 parts per million, and has been mostly stable or growing ever since. Now that region of ice, the most ancient remaining in the memory of Earth, is under threat. With human greenhouse gasses in the range of 484 ppm CO2e (CO2 equivalent) and 400 ppm CO2 and rising, it appears that even the oldest glaciers are under existential threat.

To this point, Eric Rignot noted in a recent interview:

“..the stage is set. You have a submarine glacier and a deep trough. The warm water is not too far from that frontal region and we’ve seen some changes in the glaciers that suggest that something is happening at their base.”

Links:

Ocean Access to A Cavity Beneath Totten Glacier

Hidden Channels Beneath East Antarctica Could Cause Massive Melt

Australian Antarctic Division

NASA

A Glacier Area the Size of the Entire South is Melting Away

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263 Comments

  1. And this poor gov. enviro employee is being suspended and being sent for psych-eval for mentioning climate change.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/19/florida-employee-forced-on-leave-climate-change

    The deafening silence from his ignorant fellow Floridians suggests that they deserve to be submerged.

    Reply
  2. Loni

     /  March 20, 2015

    Robert, I’ve read in recent years that the East Antarctic was considered pretty safe and stable, although I never did find out why that was considered so. When the “fjords” were ‘discovered’ in Greenland last year or so, which explained some inexplicable evidence, I’m assuming this same geographic topography is to account for the false sense of security regarding the East Antarctic?

    This is such a repetitive theme, that things are worse than we thought. I just read another ‘worse than we thought’ article, announcing that California has one more year of water…….move over Sao Paulo.

    I caught your interview yesterday, and it was a pleasure to hear your thoughts and explanations of the dynamics involved in these times. Would you consider an interview with our local University radio station KHSU, Humboldt State University? If so, let me know, and how best to contact you, but if you can’t make it, no need to respond, that will be notification enough that your time does not permit.

    Another good posting Robert……..damn shame about losing all of those beautiful beaches.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  March 20, 2015

      “Robert, I’ve read in recent years that the East Antarctic was considered pretty safe and stable, although I never did find out why that was considered so.”

      It’s a much higher base than the land west of the Trans Antarctic Mountains.

      ” This is such a repetitive theme, that things are worse than we thought.”

      Over the years I’ve noticed this phrase :
      “We’ve never seen this before.”

      Reply
      • Loni

         /  March 21, 2015

        Thank you for the explanation Col. Bob, and your last line is reminiscent of Dr. Natalia Shakhova’s quote when she returned from their recent trip to the Arctic when she said, “Everything we see is anomalous, that’s what has him so worried.”, or words to that affect, and I think she must have been referring to Dr. Semiletov.

        Everything bears watching, which is what makes folks like you and Robert so important. Thanks for all that you folks do.

        Reply
    • The false sense of security was due to some researchers only looking at the ice sheets surface conditions, some researchers considering models that were not capable of accurately predicting rates of glacial destabilization, and generally failing to understand the importance of contact with warming oceans as a glacial melt accelerator. That said, as Bob notes above, more of the ice mass is at higher elevation than the more vulnerable sheets in West Antarctica.

      And, yes, California is in a bad state and looking at the rather ugly prospect of potential water availability reductions as well.

      I’d be happy to do an interview at KHSU radio.

      Reply
      • Loni

         /  March 21, 2015

        Robert, your contact has been noted, thank you very much. I will call KHSU and get back to you after that contact. Thank you so much.

        Reply
    • I agree, a great peaceful way to send a message. Depressed lately, heard 2 people mention climate change and Al Gore together at work in the usual fashion.

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 20, 2015

        Please don’t let them get you down, bassman.
        Here’re some tips on how to remain positive despite the dire circumstances, from “seven prominent and tireless environmentalists”:
        Keep Calm and Conserve On
        It’s hard to stay positive in the face of perpetual bad news. Seven leading environmentalists offer their strategies.

        http://climate.audubon.org/article/keep-calm-and-conserve

        Reply
      • I don’t focus on numbskulls. They’re usually the ones who just ignore anything they don’t want to hear.

        Reply
      • Yes, but Al Gore’s gross hypocrisy on the matter only serves to discredit the movement, climate change, and conservation in general because he comes off as Marie Antoinette’s famous line, “Let them eat cake.”

        Reply
      • I’m not aware of such a moment for Gore. Looks to me like mostly character assassination in an attempt to discredit and politicize climate change altogether.

        Reply
      • climatehawk1

         /  March 22, 2015

        I agree on character assassination. Have been thinking about brief blog post on why Celebrity A, who urges action on climate change and behaves like a normal celebrity (big house, trips, whatever) is still much better than Celebrity B, who says nothing. Right-wingers don’t seem to get this, and I suspect the reason is simple–they disagree with Celebrity A.

        Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 20, 2015

      That was from the August 2013 race and wasn’t the the only action they pulled off at the Belgian Grand Prix that year:
      Greenpeace holds pre-race protest against Shell August 25th 2013
      http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/109471
      …After two paragliders flew over the circuit trailing a banner protesting against race sponsor Shell’s Arctic drilling plans, four activists from Greenpeace Belgium scaled the roof of the main grandstand in the hour before the start….

      Reply
    • Genius work, that.

      Reply
  3. eleggua

     /  March 20, 2015

    Don’t know if this adds anything new, Robert, however here you go:
    Reducing Salt Is Bad for Glacial Health Dec 6, 2013

    A new NASA-led study has discovered an intriguing link between sea ice conditions and the melting rate of Totten Glacier, the glacier in East Antarctica that discharges the most ice into the ocean. The discovery, involving cold, extra salty water – brine – that forms within openings in sea ice, adds to our understanding of how ice sheets interact with the ocean, and may improve our ability to forecast and prepare for future sea level rise.

    “I was curious why Totten was changing so fast when the glacier just next to it wasn’t changing much,” said Ala Khazender of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., lead author of the new study, published online Dec. 5 in the journal Nature Communications. Combining satellite observations with ocean numerical modeling, Khazender and his colleagues developed a hypothesis that reductions in the volume of brine would increase Totten’s thinning and melting. Additional research supported that hypothesis…..

    Reply
  4. eleggua

     /  March 20, 2015

    Happy Spring, everyone!!!

    Reply
  5. Colorado Bob

     /  March 20, 2015

    Clarity on Antarctic sea ice.

    December 19th, 2014 by eric
    I’ve always been a skeptic when it comes to Antarctic sea ice. I’m not referring here to the tiresome (and incorrect) claim that the expansion of sea ice around Antarctica somehow cancels out the dramatic losses of sea ice in the Arctic (NB: polar bears don’t really care if there is sea ice in Antarctica or not). Rather, I’m referring to the idea that the observation of Antarctic sea ice expansion represents a major conundrum in our understanding of the climate system, something one hears even from knowledgeable commentators. In this post, I’ll try to provide some clarity on this subject, with some basic background and discussion of a couple of important recent papers.

    In general, Antarctic sea ice forms near the coastline, where upwelling waters cool to the atmosphere. It melts when the winds and currents push it into areas of warmer water to the north. In the summer, it melts pretty much all the way back to the coast. An efficient way to form lots of Antarctic sea ice during the autumn growth season is to have strong winds that push the ice away from the coastline. Pushing sea ice away leaves open water that can lose heat to the atmosphere, creating more sea ice. The persistent circumpolar westerlies are critical in pushing ice toward the north, into warmer waters. (Owing to the Coriolis effect, westerly winds cause northward-flowing surface ocean currents in the Southern Hemisphere).

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/12/clarity-on-antarctic-sea-ice/

    Reply
  6. Colorado Bob

     /  March 20, 2015

    First samples collected from under Antarctica’s blood falls

    If you’ve ever visited the McMurdo Dry Valleys in Antarctica, then you’ve likely had a surprise. The cold, frigid white background cut by snowless valleys is marked by the Onyx river, the continent’s longest and largest river, which ends with a five-storey-tall waterfall that spills bright blood-red water over an enormous glacier.

    http://www.zmescience.com/science/geology/blood-falls-13032015/

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  March 20, 2015

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 20, 2015

      Wow! That’s really neat, Bob; thanks for sharing.

      Reply
    • My thoughts are — great, just what we need, another source of anoxic water filled with ancient sulfur-reducing microbes spilling into the oceans.

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 21, 2015

        Ancient Ecosystem Discovered Beneath Antarctic Glacier 16 April 2009
        http://news.sciencemag.org/biology/2009/04/ancient-ecosystem-discovered-beneath-antarctic-glacier
        Scientists have found life in an ecosystem trapped underneath a glacier in Antarctica for nearly 2 million years. The microbes, they suggest, are surviving the dark, oxygen-free waters by drawing energy from sulfur and iron. The findings provide insight into how life may have survived “Snowball Earth”–periods when some scientists speculate that the planet was entombed in ice–and hint at the possibility of life in other inhospitable environments, such as Mars and Jupiter’s icy moon Europa….

        A battery of tests revealed that its waters contained almost no oxygen and hosted a community of at least 17 different types of microorganisms. But how could they have survived for so long, with no light or oxygen? Mikucki and her team uncovered three main clues. First, a genetic analysis of the microbes showed that they were closely related to other microorganisms that use sulfate instead of oxygen for respiration. Second, isotopic analysis of sulfate’s oxygen molecules revealed that the microbes were modifying sulfate in some form but not using it directly for respiration. Third, the water was enriched with soluble ferrous iron, which would happen only if the organisms had converted ferric iron, which is insoluble, to the soluble ferrous form. The best explanation, the team reports in tomorrow’s issue of Science, is that the organisms use sulfate as a catalyst to “breathe” with ferric iron and metabolize the limited amounts of organic matter trapped with them years ago. Lab experiments have suggested this might be possible, but it has never been observed in a natural environment….

        Reply
  7. eleggua

     /  March 20, 2015

    Taylor Glacier and Blood Falls:

    Reply
  8. Jay M

     /  March 21, 2015

    Looking at the sandstone, dolorite sill bands in the background of the Taylor Glacier photo makes me feel how out of our depth we have become with our technology. Odd sedimentary layers of plastic, perhaps a black band of mass death, signature isotopic rearrangement in the holocene bands of sediment, such a requiem as spring still bursts so adamantly upon our earth.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  March 21, 2015

      And each layer is completely flat , not like the road cuts on I-80 west of Echo Junction, Utah that expose the “Over Thrust Belt” . Or Reds Rocks west west of Denver.

      It is an amazing picture , one wonders if the last Monarch butterfly will be sealed in between your plastic bag .

      Reply
  9. Colorado Bob

     /  March 21, 2015

    A word about disaster relief , If one is moved to help people in trouble I recommend “ShelterBox” in England. When earthquake hit Haiti , I helped raise over $10,000 for them, after much research . Real bang for your buck. . They ship a large tote with a 10 man tent , and all the basic things needed to get people back on their feet , pots and pans sleeping mats, a tool kit, etc. etc.

    Here’s the link :

    http://www.shelterboxusa.org/

    We bought 100 of these , that was over 1,000 people who got shelter . And our money when way beyond Haiti .

    Reply
  10. Colorado Bob

     /  March 21, 2015

    Every year, hundreds of thousands of families across the world lose everything when disasters strike. Often with no warning, families lose their homes, their possessions and their livelihoods. Every day they are faced with a battle for survival.

    Since we began in 2000, we have responded to earthquakes, floods, volcanoes, tsunamis, hurricanes, landslides, typhoons and conflict, delivering emergency humanitarian aid to communities in need.

    The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2010 Haiti earthquake, the Syria crisis, and the biggest storm to ever make landfall – Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines; we have responded to some of the largest humanitarian crises the modern world has ever known. Alongside this, we have also helped many thousands of people displaced by disasters that are not featured in the media. Simply put, if there are families in need of emergency shelter, we will do everything we can to help them.

    http://shelterboxusa.org/about.php?page=1

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  March 21, 2015

      The top priority of many aid organizations is to provide food, water and medical care to help people survive the immediate aftermath of a disaster. Without protection from the elements, survivors are at a higher risk as they await nourishment or medical attention. We recognized that little or no assistance was given in terms of proper shelter to help them through the first few days, weeks and months as they tried to rebuild their lives. Today, ShelterBox assists disaster survivors during the critical period following a disaster but preceding reconstruction.

      Reply
    • Hey guys — Bob has been helping out with this effort for years. Certainly a worthy cause well worth supporting. Think about helping to spread the word, give if you can, or both.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  March 21, 2015

        Thanks , if one wants to help with just $ 10 bucks spent it with ShelterBox , nobody has a lower cost than them . But give it to the home base at Cornwall , UK. ,

        These people are at the peak of what we dream goodness means.

        Reply
  11. Jay M

     /  March 21, 2015

    you let us know how non-smooth the sedimentary layers as lived through
    it is as though we can see our fate in the melting of the ice layers
    not to mention how weird the pteropoda may have beem.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  March 21, 2015

      Jay M
      As obtuse goes , your pretty good. , but I had a powder monkey drag me to a fossil bed northwest of Lusk, Wyoming once. It was embedded in the rock , and it was over 3 feet in diameter . It was a perfect Nautilus form. I explained how old this animal was , and that we were standing on very old sea floor.

      His up bringing would not allow the numbers I quoted. That thing is still sitting there weathering out . And it is huge.

      For those in the dark , Lusk, Wyoming is one of great fossil beds on Earth , The first Triceratops was found near Lusk, Wyoming.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  March 21, 2015

        Lusk, Wyoming ,………………….. we were at Douglas , every morning we drove 2 hours to the field, Every night we drove 2 hours back.

        Reply
      • Goodness, Bob, that is amazing. Really something to see, I bet.

        Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  March 21, 2015

        The entire rock face was frozen in the mud of the post Cambrian , Zillions of things frozen in stone around this giant creature .

        It’s all still sitting there. Unless greed found it.

        Reply
  12. Andy in San Diego

     /  March 21, 2015

    Video: Watch Scott’s Disaster Chief Refuse to Say “Climate Change” in Hearing
    ==============================================================

    “That’s when the committee’s chairman, Clearwater Republican Sen. Jack Latvala, jumped in. “What were those words?” he asked.

    As Koons smiles awkwardly, Clemens offers, “I used ‘climate change,’ but I’m suggesting as a state we might use ‘atmospheric reemployment.'”

    The crowd laughed — and Latvala nearly bursts an artery howling at that one — but Koons still isn’t off the hook. When he again refers to “the issue” instead of climate change, Clemens grins and asks, “What issue is that?”

    “Uhh, the issue you mentioned earlier, regarding, uh, climate …” Koons offers as Latvala nearly falls out of his chair laughing.”

    http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/video-watch-scotts-disaster-chief-refuse-to-say-climate-change-in-hearing-7548413

    Reply
  13. Andy in San Diego

     /  March 21, 2015

    Sea Level Rise Threatens to Drown Miami Even Faster Than Feared, UM Researcher Finds

    “Living in Miami in 2015 and harboring any doubts about sea level rise is roughly equivalent to being a volcano truther in Pompeii circa 79 AD.”

    http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/sea-level-rise-threatens-to-drown-miami-even-faster-than-feared-um-researcher-finds-6537603

    Reply
    • climatehawk1

       /  March 22, 2015

      Thanks, tweet scheduled. I really like the Pompeii reference–incorporated into my tweet. Lots of people will understand what that means.

      Reply
    • Huge sea ice crack up going on in the Beaufort right now. Surface temps are still quite low. But this is not what I would call a good start to melt season. Looks like winter 2013 all over again. But here we are in late March.

      Reply
  14. Colorado Bob

     /  March 21, 2015

    “atmospheric reemployment.’”

    They paid someone $50 Thousand Dollars for that .

    Reply
    • Yeah. Like that’s gonna stick. Probably the purpose of the whole endeavor — word smithing the issue into obscurity.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  March 21, 2015

        Money, Money, Money,

        Reply
      • Ps The bomb dropped on the city of Hiroshima as an untested uranium bomb. The city of Nagasaki experienced the next ‘tested’ plutonium bomb.

        Reply
    • Greg

       /  March 22, 2015

      Sonderbehandlung (“special treatment”) meant execution, and the term Endlösung (“final solution”) we all know what that meant. “Atmospheric reemployment”, what’s the German for that?

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 22, 2015

        Götterdämmerung.

        Reply
      • Or “Just following orders.” Or Gas Vans. Really. Emissions Central. This is part of the narrative, you know. Never lose sight of this fossil fuel endeavor we humans are capable of. And the denials and excuses.

        ‘The Technical Department of the Reich Security Main Office, headed by SS Obersturmbannfuhrer Walter Rauff, developed a special vehicle for killing purposes. This vehicle resembled an ambulance or refrigerator truck and contained a hermetically sealed rear cabin. The victims were placed in the cabin and carbon monoxide was introduced by means of a pipe. The gassing process took between fifteen and thirty minutes. During this time the van was driven from the loading site to prepared graves.’

        – jewishvirtuallibrary org jsource Holocaust shootingstovans

        – pbs org auschwitz 40-45 killing

        Reply
      • – Another historical ‘ambulance’ tidbit The plutonium for the Trinity (A-bomb) test. A big armored convoy would attract attention.

        How did plutonium get to Los Alamos?

        Tiny amounts of plutonium were loaned to Los Alamos from the Met Lab in Chicago in the summer of 1943. Glenn Seaborg remembered in the New York Times in 1985, how he brought the plutonium back to Chicago: “A Los Alamos physicist, Robert Wilson, met Mrs. Seaborg and me at breakfast at about 5 a.m. in a Santa Fe restaurant, having escorted the sample from Los Alamos with the implied protection of a high-powered rifle. I then transported the sample by train in my suitcase, without benefit of firearms, back to Chicago.” The first plutonium created in the nuclear reactors at Hanford, Washington, was delivered on February 5, 1945, making part of its journey on a Portland-to-Los Angeles train. Later, plutonium arrived in specially-designed canisters transported by Army ambulance by drivers who did not know what their cargo was.

        http://www.losalamoshistory.org/manhattan_post_view_08-03-14.htm

        Reply
      • Ps The bomb dropped on the city of Hiroshima as an untested uranium bomb. The city of Nagasaki experienced the next ‘tested’ plutonium bomb.

        Reply
  15. Colorado Bob

     /  March 21, 2015

    I watched the old NOVA last night about the Monarchs at the end it was made over 9 years ago.

    The crash of nature is picking up speed.

    Reply
  16. Colorado Bob

     /  March 21, 2015

    RS –
    The paid gangsters are coming , make no mistake.

    Reply
    • Expected. They’re getting a bit desperate at this point. That’s what happens when you run from stuff like this. It just gets bigger and bigger until it swallows you whole. That’s what climate change deniers are dealing with now.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  March 21, 2015

        Charlie Rose had a party for his Coca Cola man tonight, I wrote him, telling how I only slept 2 hours, because my diabetic neuropathy is getting worse.

        Then I pointed out ,
        Selling opium to China don’t make you genius , and everyone who did it had a sweet family at home.

        Selling sugar to America is a no brainier. But look what that has gave us.

        Shame on you Charlie Rose , Shame on you.

        Your number one supporter , has made millions of Americans fat, sick , and on the health care grind .

        It was a series of emails. All said , ” Shame on you Charlie Rose , Shame on you.”

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 21, 2015

        Wonky.

        Reply
    • Oh yes, the ‘fix’ is in many, many times over. Flim flam con men and women propaganda gangsters at every level of a deculturized society full of ringers and moral pick-pockets. And it is worse than anyone thinks. Much worse and prevalent.

      I remember from many years ago a feminine voice over for a TV sugarized (I think) junk item: “Total Instant! Gratification! Now!”
      It’s as honest as it is insidious.

      Reply
      • Remember: McDonald’s does “it all for you.” Including your thinking — especially your thinking.

        Reply
    • Let us know if you get a response from Mr. Rose, CB.

      Reply
  17. Ralph

     /  March 21, 2015

    Back at the equator, the burst of anomalous westerly winds near New Guinea is now in it’s third week, and has apparently set some sort of record: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2938.
    ENSO expert Paul Roundy is picking current conditions to give us a “strong El Niño late this year”, although cautioning that that is far from certain.

    Reply
    • wili

       /  March 21, 2015

      Good catch, Ralph. From the first paragraph:

      “The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 – 60 days, and has many important impacts on weather patterns world-wide. For example, when the area of increased thunderstorms associated with the MJO is located in a particular ocean basin, the odds of tropical cyclone formation increase there. Scientists use the Wheeler-Hendon MJO index to monitor how strong the MJO is, and this week, the amplitude of the MJO set a new all-time record for the strongest MJO event observed since record keeping began in 1974 (with no data available from 3/17/1978-12/31/1978 due to satellite problems).

      The MJO index hit 4.09 on March 15, 2015, beating the old record of 4.01 set on February 14, 1985.

      On March 16, 2015, the MJO index set an even higher mark–4.67.”

      Reply
      • More of an atmospheric caterwaul than a dance. The anomalous conditions, from the hot pool covering most of the Pacific, the recent record PDO, and now this record MJO are extreme and extraordinary. Perhaps we are witnessing the beginnings of a monster El Niño. But one of an ilk we are not familiar with. And one that is rather long in coming.

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 21, 2015

        Turning and turning in the widening gyre…

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 21, 2015

        what rough beast?

        Reply
    • The subsurface Kelvin Wave is picking up this energy and is starting to look quite strong as well. WWB, though not as strong, are still running, but this time over a rather long distance. The trades, as of now are rather quiet.

      Reply
  18. Reblogged this on jpratt27.

    Reply
  19. eleggua

     /  March 21, 2015

    U.S. sets out first directives for ‘fracking’
    Only federal lands affected
    March 21, 2015
    http://www.nwaonline.com/news/2015/mar/21/u-s-sets-out-first-directives-for-frack/?news-national
    …..After years of debate and delay, the Bureau of Land Management said drillers on federal lands must reveal the chemicals they use, meet well-construction standards and safely dispose of contaminated water used in hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking.

    “This rule will move our nation forward as we ensure responsible development while protecting public land resources,” Interior Secretary Sally Jewell said….

    Jewell, who oversaw the creation of the rules, is a onetime engineer for Mobil Oil Corp., where she personally supervised fracking operations. She also was an advocate for environmental protection as chief executive of the outdoor equipment and apparel company REI….

    The rules add “unnecessary, duplicative red tape that will in turn make it more costly and arduous for our nation to pursue energy security,” Sen. James Inhofe, an Oklahoma Republican and chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee, said.
    Inhofe on Thursday introduced legislation to keep regulation of fracking under state oversight.

    Some environmental groups praised the final rules Friday because they include pressure testing each well before production begins and would require millions of gallons of wastewater be stored in tanks, rather than open pits….

    “These rules put the interests of big oil and gas above people’s health and America’s natural heritage,” said Amy Mall, who directs the fracking advocacy at the Natural Resources Defense Council. “The bottom line is: These rules fail to protect the nation’s public lands — home to our last wild places and sources of drinking water for millions of people.”…

    Environmental groups also are prodding the Environmental Protection Agency and the Bureau of Land Management to issue tight restrictions on methane leaks from fracked wells, a source of greenhouse gases….

    Reply
  20. Mark D

     /  March 21, 2015

    Can anyone tell me what was the estimated pre-industrial CO2 equivalent level? I believe CO2 alone stood at 280 ppm.

    Reply
    • About 310 ppm CO2e considering an atmospheric methane concentration of 715 ppb preindustrial. Delta CO2 = + 120 ppm. Delta methane = + 1135 ppb. Add in NOx plus other exotic, human emitted ghg.

      Reply
      • Mark D

         /  March 22, 2015

        Many thanks. We really are in trouble once the cumulative effect of this works through!

        Reply
  21. Jay M

     /  March 21, 2015

    Seemorerocks has posted a rather alarming blog today on 2015 methane readings:
    http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2015/03/more-on-methane.html

    Reply
    • Robin here conflates peaks with yearly averages a bit. However, we did see an uptick in the pace of global atmospheric CH 4 accumulation during 2014. There’s not quite enough information yet to determine if this is just a bit of a spike or the start of a ramp up. There’s reason for concern, but we do not see a major break from the 4-7 ppb yearly increase as of yet.

      Reply
  22. With Totten and all the other destabilized glaciers, New Orleans is in a very bad way. 26 feet of sea level rise, destined in my opinion during this century, will leave only *one* levee sitting above the new sea-level: the southwesterly storm surge barrier and its earthen embankment wings fronting Lake Borgne, which is 32 feet in height.

    Reply
    • That’s “southeasterly storm surge barrier.”

      Gods, I hate auto-correct!

      Reply
    • Robert In New Orleans

       /  March 21, 2015

      So when do I have to move out?

      Come on now don’t be shy.

      Just a date and time.😉

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 21, 2015

        Lost Louisiana: the race to reclaim vanished land back from the sea
        World’s fastest submerging state is looking to nature in an ambitious plan to turn back the tide, and to BP to fund it – but will it work?
        14 October 2014
        http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/14/lost-louisiana-the-race-to-reclaim-vanished-land-back-from-the-sea
        …Officials say the ambitious plan is the best hope yet for saving the coast. Louisiana lost nearly 1,900 square miles of land between 1932 to 2010, and between 1985 and 2010 wetlands were lost at a rate of 16.57 square miles per year – a disappearing act claiming on average a football field an hour….

        Left unchecked, the state is projected to lose an additional 1,750 sq m in the next 50 years….

        “If sea level rise doubles as we expect over the next century, can you imagine what is going to happen to this landscape?” she asked. “Without the barrier islands and marshes to attenuate the storm surge, the people of New Orleans are basically surrounded by an earthen levee.”

        Reply
      • I wouldn’t be living, or certainly not owning property, in a low lying coastal zone at this time. SLR rates of increase are in the range just prior to triggering migration in most low lying areas now. If you own property, you’re at risk of being caught in a mass sell-off and degrading of property values in a range from now to 10 years. It only takes a net loss of populace in coastal regions to depress home values. In addition, the current rate of warming may, at low probability, but with very high impact, result in some rather extreme melt outburst events.

        I’ve advised my parents to leave, or to, at the very least, not own property… They live in Hampton Roads. New Orleans is in a far worse situation — facing rapid subsidence together with what will almost certainly be a ramping rate of SLR soon.

        Reply
  23. The Independent (!!): Amazon rainforest losing capacity to fight climate change as trees die

    A study led by the University of Leeds revealed that tree growth in the Amazon rainforest has declined by one-third since the 1980s and that the net uptake of carbon dioxide in the rainforest has dropped by half.

    For the first time in history, carbon dioxide absorption by the Amazon rainforest has been surpassed by fossil fuel emissions in Latin America, the study found. Historically, the rainforest absorbed about 2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide each year.

    nature: Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink

    Reply
    • This is an important study. It finds that individual trees are growing faster, but that they are also dying at a much faster rate. The causes identified include increasing weather variability due to climate change, and the more rapid initial rate of growth itself. The result is a net loss in overall forest growth — 1/3 — primarily due to increasing tree death.

      The key finding here, in my view, is that models predicted that forests would absorb more CO2, as growth in atmospheric concentrations stimulated forest growth. This is not happening. A combination of climate change and tree death occurring at earlier tree ages is reducing carbon uptake in the rain forest.

      Reply
  24. Kevin Jones

     /  March 21, 2015

    Hey, Ed-M. Was going over David Archer’s The Long Thaw for the umpteenth time. This thought came: An ice free planet would give us about a 70 meter sea level rise. 230 feet. Suppose it took a full 1000 years. Linearly, not non-linearly. 70mm/yr, (.23 feet)
    7cm/decade (2.3feet_
    7meters/century (23 feet)
    70 meters/one thousand years (230feet)
    Paleoclimate informs James Hansen that our current rate of 3.2mm/yr (1993-2014 as monitored out at Boulder, CO) could ramp up to 5 meters/century by 2100. Similar rates of sea level rise have been sustained for centuries in the past. With a far smaller forcing….No matter how conservative one plays this game, the name of it is Big Trouble.

    Reply
  25. Kevin Jones

     /  March 21, 2015

    Ha! Even when I err on the side of ‘conservative’, I err too far: Hansen actually shows the possibility of achieving a 5 meter rise BY 2100 with a then rate pointing towards the stars… my word.

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  March 21, 2015

      As Eric Rignot says….”People are not ready for this.”

      Reply
      • Kevin Jones

         /  March 21, 2015

        Meltwater pulse 1-A (from NASA 2007) 13,500-14,600 years before present.16 to 24 meters sea level rise. 50 to 80 feet. 37mm to 65mm per year. (again, with a then small forcing from todays)

        Reply
      • Mark from New England

         /  March 21, 2015

        Kevin, Is that 50 to 80 feet in one year? I knew there were some quick melt episodes, but that is off the scale! Perhaps the worldwide legends of a ‘great flood’ is an oral history of sorts passed down from survivors of this time.

        Reply
      • Griffin

         /  March 21, 2015

        I think he means 50 to 80 feet in total Mark. The 37mm to 65mm per year would still be off the charts compared to our present 3.2mm/yr though!
        A lurking meltwater pulse potential that concerns me is the massive body of water that remains within the ice in Greenland. In my eyes, that is something that needs further study and measuring. I would like to know how much potential really exists there and if there is any chance of a “plug” letting go and all that water finding an outlet.

        Reply
      • Meltwater pulse 1A is an event that featured a max SLR rate around 16 feet per century. Overall, you have 50-80 feet of SLR within about 1,000 years. Of course the forcing that achieved this rate of SLR was a bit less than what we currently see, especially as an initial forcing, now.

        Reply
    • Looking at paleoclimate, and taking temperature as the final arbiter when it comes to melt, it looks like rapid melt starts around 1.5 to 2 C warming. Because of the ice sheet interplay with global temperature, it appears that most of the ice would have melted before 5 C worth of temp increase is achieved. The last 30 feet or so worth of SLR occurs with the 5-6 C increase.

      Something to consider at least.

      Reading Hansen’s paper on exponential Greenland and West Antarctic melt is informative, especially when we consider that East Antarctica may become involved sooner than expected.

      The last thing to consider is that rapid melt provides a proportionately strong negative temperature feedback in or near the melt zone. So very rapid rates of melt would likely correspond with some rather wild and intense climate and weather variation.

      Reply
  26. eleggua

     /  March 21, 2015

    Blue Vision Summit 5 = May 11 – 14, 2015 = Washington, DC
    http://www.bluefront.org/blue_vision_blog/2015-summit/
    Help turn the tide of history this May 11-14th at the fifth Blue Vision Summit in Washington, DC

    Blue Vision Summits bring ocean conservation leaders together in every two years to network, build the blue movement and meet with the Administration and Congress to restore the blue in our red, white and blue. This spring some 500 people from local, regional and national groups, scientists, explorers and others will attend the Summit that will include a Healthy Ocean citizen lobby on Capitol Hill and be immediately followed by the 8th annual Peter Benchley Ocean Awards (PBOA). Called ‘The Academy Awards of the Sea, the Benchleys recognize leaders from many walks of life finding solutions to the threats facing our blue world.

    2015 Blue Vision themes include responding to the impacts from climate change, overfishing, offshore oil and plastic pollution and also, with students and youth, working to make sure that healthy public seas and the healthy economies and communities they support (both human and wild) become a national public policy priority by the 2016 Presidential Elections.

    Those attending BVS5 and the PBOA8 include: Prince Albert II of Monaco, Dr. Sylvia Earle, Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Paul Zukunft, Coast Guard Vice-Commandant Admiral Peter Neffenger, NOAA Administrator Dr. Kathy Sullivan, NOAA Marine Sanctuaries Director Dan Basta, Rep. Sam Farr, Ralph Nader, Senator Brian Schatz (invited), Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (invited), Legal Sea Foods CEO Roger Berkowitz, National Aquarium CEO John Racanelli, Fabien Cousteau, Celine Cousteau, Wyland, Wendy Benchley, Enric Sala, J. Wallace J. Nichols, David Doubillet, Louie Psihoyos, Don Walsh, Dr. Jane Lubchenco, Dr. Ayana Elizabeth Johnson, Nigella Hillgarth, Chad Nelson, a 90-foot inflatable Blue Whale named Mz Blue, and hopefully ocean lovers and defenders like you!

    Reply
  27. Kevin Jones

     /  March 21, 2015

    Mark. Not so fast!🙂 50 feet to 80 feet in 1100 years. Close to 5′-8′ per century average over whole period but with 3.7 to 6.5 meters 12feet+ to 22 feet per century at times during it, is my understanding. 3.2mm rise avg. for 1993-2014 equals a 12 9/32 inch per century. Just over one foot. Something I monitor with dread/fascination.

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  March 21, 2015

      To summarize (clarify) my thoughts: We’ve a pretty good idea how fast sea level has risen in the past. I cannot imagine what the height or rate will rise to by 2100 or so. (don’t dare…) Is 3 meters to 9 meters, 10 feet-30 feet conceivable? In my ‘dreams’.

      Reply
    • My opinion is that a conservative estimate of 3-9 feet is a good probable range. That said, if temps warm beyond 2 C this Century, I think the melt will be more rapid than current expectation.

      Reply
      • Kevin Jones

         /  March 22, 2015

        We could take my average of 20 feet and yours, Robert of 6 feet and combine them for !3 feet of sea level rise by 2100. That outta work!🙂

        Reply
        • I’m waiting for acceleration in the global numbers to get a better sense of it. Given the current pace of human warming, I think we should be wary of unexpected and unfortunate outcomes. With NOAA at 5-6 feet now…

      • Kevin Jones

         /  March 22, 2015

        …13 feet..

        Reply
      • If I bump my range up, the next adjustment will be to 4-14 feet… Not there yet. But things are looking like they could head that way.

        Reply
  28. — Sorry to break in here but I have reached an elusive conclusion.

    So Cal Bight atmospheric fallout vs jet stream retreat.

    I think that there may be some linkage between:
    The loss of my sailing winds in Santa Barbara & Southern California Bight.
    A visible and dramatic increase in air pollution, soot, traffic dust, etc. in SB.
    Chronic ultrafine particulate matter 2.5 pm in coastal LA (Santa Monica & Venice Beach area which nominally is swash with ‘fresh’ ocean air).
    An increase in airline contrails staying aloft as seen from SB.
    Recent confirmations of the retreat of the NW winds northwards in the Eastern Pacific.
    The warming of the Arctic and the malfunctioning of the polar jet stream.
    #
    The timing of each corresponds to the totality of them all.
    My main point being: as the Arctic warmed, and the NW winds pulled out of So Cal much of the particulate stopped staying aloft, or circulating and dispersing over wide areas but instead stayed in the weakened air flow at low levels, and/or fell to earth where it coated every bit of landscape.
    I knew the problem, and solutions, were local and regional — and I tried to bring attention to this. The San Francisco Bay Area, the Central Valley, the Los Angeles Basin, the Santa Barbara Channel, and SC Bight make one big atmospheric circulation system. Its dynamics have been considerably altered.
    Now I see the part ‘climate change’ played in the whole process — decreased Arctic ice means less wind which equals more localized deposition.
    Thank you Dr. Jennifer Francis — a sailor.

    Reply
  29. eleggua

     /  March 21, 2015

    UK issues health warnings as smog cloud spreads across Europe 19 March 2015
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/19/uk-issues-health-warnings-as-smog-cloud-spreads-across-europe
    The UK government issued health warnings on Thursday as a dangerous cloud of smog continued to drift across much of Europe.

    The smog alert level was moderate for most parts of the UK, with some pockets of denser smog around Doncaster and the north east of England attracting a high alert warning that suggests older people should avoid strenuous exercise.

    An environment department (Defra) spokeswoman said: “Winds bringing in pollution from the continent, combined with locally generated pollution and still weather conditions has led to some high pollution measurements across the UK. Levels are expected to go down later today with moderate or low levels predicted for tomorrow.”

    Andrew Grieve, an air quality expert at King’s College London, said analysis of the cloud showed that up to 90% of the pollution was generated in European cities, much of it “stale diesel” from traffic.

    “A large majority of what we are seeing at the moment is the imported pollution from traffic and industrial sources on the continent,” he said…..

    Reply
  30. eleggua

     /  March 21, 2015

    Total Solar eclipse over Svalbard, March 20, 2015

    Reply
  31. eleggua

     /  March 21, 2015

    Repulican 2016 Presidential hopefuls set to attend fundraiser at David Koch’s Palm Beach mansion March 20, 2015
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/03/20/gop-hopefuls-set-to-attend-fundraiser-at-david-kochs-palm-beach-mansion/
    …A group of White House hopefuls, including Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, are scheduled to make a pilgrimage to the oceanfront estate of the billionaire industrialist on Sunday afternoon….

    Former governors Jeb Bush of Florida and Rick Perry of Texas were also invited to the event; Perry aides said he would not be able to attend.

    The RGA Executive Roundtable Program is one of the most successful donor efforts on the right, ballooning from less than dozen members in 2009 to more than 600 this year. The initiative is open only to chief executives, entrepreneurs and wealthy philanthropists, who must donate a minimum of $25,000 a year to participate.

    Some of those donors are scheduled be in attendance — including real estate magnate Donald Trump, who recently announced his own presidential exploratory bid, and his wife.

    Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana, another longshot 2016 possibility, will also be there, along with Govs. Bill Haslam of Tennessee, Susana Martinez of New Mexico, Rick Scott of Florida, Nikki Haley of South Carolina and Mary Fallin of Oklahoma….

    Reply
  32. Andy in San Diego

     /  March 21, 2015

    Next time you see a traffic jam, full of vehicles idling….or are on a highway that is full of traffic remember that about 19.64 pounds of carbon dioxide (CO2) are produced from burning a gallon of gasoline.

    ============================================================

    About 19.64 pounds of carbon dioxide (CO2) are produced from burning a gallon of gasoline that does not contain ethanol. About 22.38 pounds of CO2 are produced by burning a gallon of diesel fuel.

    EIA estimates1 that U.S. gasoline and diesel fuel consumption for transportation in 2013 resulted in the emission of about 1,095 and 427 million metric tons of CO2 respectively, for a total of 1,522 million metric tons of CO2. This total was equivalent to 83% of total CO2 emissions by the U.S. transportation sector and 28% of total U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions.

    http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=307&t=11

    Reply
  33. Adapting to climate change will bring new environmental problems

    Adapting to climate change could have profound environmental repercussions, according to a new study from the University of East Anglia. Research in Nature Climate Change reveals that adaptation measures have the potential to generate further pressures and threats for both local and global ecosystems.

    Lead researcher Dr Carlo Fezzi, from UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences, said: “Climate change is a just a little bit more complicated than we previously thought. We need to take into account not only the direct impact of climate change, but also how people will respond to such change — the impact of adaptation.

    “This is a whole new dimension to the climate change adaptation debate.”

    The research team looked at the interaction between agricultural land use and river water quality — both of which will be heavily impacted by climate change.

    http://esciencenews.com/articles/2015/03/21/adapting.climate.change.will.bring.new.environmental.problems

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 22, 2015

      “But we should make sure we adapt in an environmentally sustainable way. Climate change is a long-term process…”

      Except when it’s abrupt:
      The Science of Abrupt Climate Change: Should we be worried?
      By Jeffrey Masters, Ph.D.

      http://www.wunderground.com/resources/climate/abruptclimate.asp
      “We now know that that major regional and global climate shifts have occurred in just a few decades or even a single year. The most recent of these shifts occurred just 8200 years ago. If an abrupt climate change of similar magnitude happened today, it would have severe consequences for humans and natural ecosystems. Although scientists consider an abrupt climate change unlikely in the next 100 years, their understanding of the phenomena is still a work-in-progress, and such a change could be triggered instantly by natural processes or by human-caused global warming with little warning.”

      As Colorado Bob said in a comment up above:
      Over the years I’ve noticed this phrase: “We’ve never seen this before.”

      Reply
    • Mitigation by rapidly reducing carbon emissions always proves to be the best option. If you have to adapt it basically means that the damage has already happened.

      Reply
  34. Andy in San Diego

     /  March 22, 2015

    California first to feel hydro-power crunch of drought
    =========================================

    I feel like we are merely a year or 2 behind Sao Paolo.

    http://www.kcra.com/news/local-news/news-sierra/california-first-to-feel-hydropower-crunch-of-drought/31941640

    Reply
  35. Sea level rise is the best means I have found of persuading even the most bone-headed or ardently non-scientific of my acquaintances of the reality and impact of climate change. It is a phenomenon that is easy to observe, is consistently measurable wherever you are in the world, and does not require a grasp of statistics to understand. Very few people will have the audacity to deny the reality of sea level rise – even those who deny that the planet is heating up. But to acknowledge rising sea levels is to implicitly accept the reality of a warming world. Higher sea levels as a result of land-based ice melt (and thermal expansion of water), which in turn is a result of higher temperatures, is a chain of logic that is both easily understood and almost impossible to deny. There is also the human element – the impending disappearance of low-lying island nations, for example – which will bring it home for people who respond more to that perspective on the issue.

    This recent discussion thread on global warming which I participated in, on Goodreads, was instructive in this sense – at the point where the argument turns to rising sea levels, it seems to persuade some of the unconvinced, and to stop some of the trolls/deniers in their tracks:

    http://www.goodreads.com/topic/show/2244487-global-warming—is-it-real

    Reply
    • rustj2015

       /  March 22, 2015

      I’m stepping into a soft spot: the article cited in huffpost and this discussion thread (as little I followed it) on goodreads are both deficit in declarations that unless the people most threatened (and this means those whose political clout is least) can comprehend the conditions that are threatening, and those who are concealing them, they will be mollified when their leadership tells them to talk amongst themselves. The obligation to protect “the people” by the governments they elect is not being honored–to be kind–when the catastrophe is obviously imminent and the solutions are only for those who can afford to take up another living space or the materials (water, air, land) needed to avoid the catastrophe. Planting trees in the amazon is not going to help, as the earth will not be as receptive to healing. The economic and political forces are not able to reverse the conditions that impend loss of sufficient and “freely” available drinking water for many Californians.
      The scythe is swishing in the field, some fallen, more in the motion, to come.

      Reply
  36. Kevin Jones

     /  March 22, 2015

    Lovelock once said it’s the best thermometer we’ve got. It’s accurate, reliable, accessible and free!. Anyone who can get down to the sea can see it. Touch it. Make a landmark and come back later.

    Reply
  37. Kevin Jones

     /  March 22, 2015

    Anybody like Maple syrup? As documented in The Sugar Season by Douglas Whynot, 2012 was a disaster. Too warm, too early. March 22nd should be the late heart of it here in New Hampshire and it’s hardly begun. (Almost over–too warm–in Minnesota. A researcher who collects 700 gal/season gathered 10 so far and the trees out there are budding which kills the ‘run’.)

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  March 22, 2015

      ….that would be 700 gallons of sap which when reduced produces 20 or so gallons of syrup, depending on sap sugar content which can range over 3%. Under 1.1% or so and it becomes uneconomical.

      Reply
  38. Check out these clowns at:
    The International Conference on Climate Change (Denial).

    You have to be over 100 to attend and wear a tee- shirt that says “I’m Koch’s Bitch”.

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 22, 2015

      Patrick Moore, ex-Greenpeace climate change denier rears his ugly head at 1min.40sec. in ^that^ video. Here’s the lowdown on the morass of Moore:

      Who Is Patrick Moore? A Look At The Former Greenpeace Member’s Industry Ties And Climate Denial
      Patrick Moore’s Climate Misinformation Is Nothing New
      February 27, 2015
      http://mediamatters.org/research/2014/02/27/who-is-patrick-moore-a-look-at-the-former-green/198266
      Conservative media are latching on to the climate change denial of Patrick Moore, who has masqueraded as a co-founder of Greenpeace. But Moore has been a spokesman for nuclear power and fossil fuel-intensive industries for more than 20 years, and his denial of climate change — without any expertise in the matter — is nothing new….

      Patrick Moore frequently portrays himself as a founder or co-founder of Greenpeace, and many news outlets have repeated this characterization. Although Mr. Moore played a significant role in Greenpeace Canada for several years, he did not found Greenpeace. Phil Cotes, Irving Stowe, and Jim Bohlen founded Greenpeace in 1970. Patrick Moore applied for a berth on the Phyllis Cormack in March, 1971 after the organization had already been in existence for a year….

      Moore Has Been An Industry Spokesman For Over 20 Years. Patrick Moore founded Greenspirit Strategies Ltd. in 1991, a communications strategy firm that promotes energy-intensive industries including “mining, energy, forestry, aquaculture, biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and manufacturing,” and supports “environmentally sound oil extraction, like is being done in the Canadian oil sands.” Moore has worked as a spokesman for many different nuclear energy companies…

      Reply
  39. It’s actually difficult to watch the whole video through :-((

    Reply
  40. Kevin Jones

     /  March 22, 2015

    It is uplifting, beckjeremy! These testimonies of willful speciousness will one day be admitted as evidence before a jury and judge. Whether in a Federal Court or that of the streets.

    Reply
  41. Kevin Jones

     /  March 22, 2015

    Mt. Washington Observatory. 8:15 a.m. March 22, 2015: -18F and falling. Wind 89mph NW. Gust 99mph Wind Chill -65F

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  March 22, 2015

      If not for the angle of the sun, it would be easy to think it was January in New England today!

      Reply
  42. Kevin Jones

     /  March 22, 2015

    BBC reporting top Chinese meteorologist warns of “huge impact” of climate change……

    Reply
    • Climate change could have a “huge impact” on China, reducing crop yields and harming the environment, the country’s top weather scientist has warned, in a rare official admission.

      Zheng Guogang told Xinhua news agency that climate change could be a “serious threat” to big infrastructure projects.

      He said temperature rises in China were already higher than global averages.

      http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-32006972

      Reply
  43. Colorado Bob

     /  March 22, 2015

    As lakes become deserts, drought is Iran’s new problem

    Iran’s reservoirs are only 40 percent full according to official figures, and nine cities including the capital Tehran are threatened with water restrictions after dry winters.

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-03-lakes-drought-iran-problem.html#jCp

    Reply
  44. Deforestation Slowing, But Forests Are Breaking Down

    The amount of climate pollution being produced every year by the felling of forests is falling worldwide, but benefits of the heartening decline are being eroded by the worsening conditions of the forests still left standing.

    The losses of entire stretches of forests, combined with losses of individual trees from forests that remain, pumped an average of 3.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year from 2011 to 2015, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization announced Friday. That was down by about a quarter from the yearly average of the 10 years prior.

    http://www.climatecentral.org/news/deforestation-slowing-but-surviving-forests-are-breaking-down-18801?utm_content=buffer40b7f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Reply
  45. Jerry Brown: Opposition on climate change ‘borders on the immoral’

    Gov. Jerry Brown said opposition to steps President Barack Obama is taking on climate change “borders on the immoral,” as he tore into Republicans in an interview aired Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

    Brown’s remarks came after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., urged states last week to ignore federal directives to reduce carbon emissions from power plants. Brown, a longtime champion of environmental causes, said McConnell was “representing his coal constituents” and putting at risk “the health and well being of America.” The Democratic governor called McConnell’s efforts “a disgrace.”

    “President Obama is taking some important steps,” Brown said. “And to fight that, it borders on the immoral.”

    Brown called U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, a climate change skeptic and potential presidential candidate from Texas, “unfit to be running for office.”

    Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article16011623.html#storylink=cpy

    Reply
  46. 031715 Levee inspections begin as Mississippi River rises above 11 feet in New Orleans

    With the Mississippi River rising above 11 feet at the Carrollton Gage in New Orleans on Tuesday morning (March 17), the Army Corps of Engineers instituted the first stage of its high river “flood fight” plan by scheduling inspections of river levees in the New Orleans area on Wednesday.

    The Mississippi was at 11.2 feet in New Orleans on Tuesday morning and is forecast to crest at 14 feet on Mar. 30, according to the National Weather Service’s Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center in Slidell.

    Reply
  47. – The Politicos talk — but will they walk what they talk?

    Mississippi River Mayors to Start Global Conversation
    Posted By Toby Sells on Thu, Mar 19, 2015 at 12:24 PM

    …A delegation from the group will attend the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21) in Paris. The Mississippi River Mayors group will ask the help of international organizations to orchestrate a meeting with them and those who govern the areas around, the Danube, Amazon, Volga, Ganges, Euphrates/Tigris, and Yellow Rivers.

    “With years of experience with droughts, floods and hurricanes, the Mississippi Mayors have some expertise with climate disruption and resilience,” Wharton said. “That’s why we are joining the global discussion by partnering with a nation that’s leading the way and attending a key UN meeting.”
    “Major river basins – like the Mississippi – are responsible for a significant portion of the world’s food production,” said MRCTI co-chair Roy Buol, Mayor of Dubuque, Iowa. “As demand for food grows exponentially, we will all need to work together to ensure these basins are resilient to the impacts of climate disruption.”
    http://www.memphisflyer.com/NewsBlog/archives/2015/03/19/mississippi-river-mayors-to-start-global-conversation

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  March 22, 2015

      A real conversation begins. This is encouraging. Thanks, dtlange.

      Reply
  48. – I follow them on Twitter:

    Los Alamos reduces water use by 26 percent in 2014

    Use of reclaimed water fuels decrease

    LOS ALAMOS, N.M., March 16, 2015—Los Alamos National Laboratory decreased its water usage by 26 percent in 2014, with about one-third of the reduction attributable to using reclaimed water to cool a supercomputing center.
    …The reclamation facility contributed more than 27 million gallons of re-purposed water to the SCC, a secured supercomputing facility that supports the Laboratory’s national security mission and is one of the institution’s larger water users.

    http://www.lanl.gov/discover/news-release-archive/2015/March/03.16-los-alamos-reduces-water-use.php

    Reply
  49. james cole

     /  March 22, 2015

    Can someone comments on this? I wanted to look into the Greenland melt going forward this summer. This appeared. If it is true, and I am not saying it is, did Greenland sit under cold air this winter?

    ” Greenland’s ice sheet appears to be growing faster this winter than in recent years, according to new data from the Danish Meteorological Institute.

    This increased rate of ice accumulation follows a virtual standstill in the loss of mass from the huge ice sheet last year that was reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US.

    Ice is currently accumulating at a faster rate than the average over the period from 1990 to 2011 and since the end of November it has been growing at its fastest rate in at least four years, according to the DMI data”

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  March 22, 2015

      james cole: Charlottetown, PEI Canada set new winter snow record of 4.63 meters a few days ago. Broke old record of 4.51 meters which was just last year. I’ve visited PEI in the past and can almost ‘feel’ Greenland from there. Charlottetown to Narsarsuaq: 1,250 miles. Suspect something about the jetstream, sea temperatures….etc; this mad winter.

      Reply
    • Andy in San Diego

       /  March 22, 2015

      It may be the opposite.

      When I live in the North West Territories in the dead of winter (max cold) we would get diddly for snow. Snow would fall at the beginning and end of winter. Reason being that it is too cold plus a lack of moisture in the air. During the cold part, there would be tiny ice crystals floating in the air. When it would warm up to above approximately -20C then we would get snow. That is provided there was moisture in the air.

      The increased snow fall may be due to the high temp anomalies and the Atlantic pushing up moisture. Not certain of this, but that is my guess (probably a lame guess) from past experience.

      Reply
      • Kevin Jones

         /  March 22, 2015

        We’re on the same page, Andy. My guess as well. Cold (enough) air over above normal water barreling into and up over Greenland is going to cause a lot of snow. Think Buffalo.

        Reply
      • Kevin Jones

         /  March 22, 2015

        Hard for New Englanders to remember (or believe) but NCDC has all of New England Much Above Avg. for December 2014. All six states ranked between 110 and 116 warmest Decembers of past 120. And above normal precip. with Maine 114 wettest of 120.

        Reply
    • North Atlantic meridional patterns are providing both more heat and moisture to the atmosphere near Greenland than is typical. In addition, the raging storm track that has been running near the eastern Greenland coast provides quite a lot of energy for intense precipitation events. As Kevin and Andy note above, this is a symptom of warming in the near Greenland environment — which results in both higher atmospheric moisture loading and increased storminess near Greenland. In addition, shifting of the cold pole south toward Greenland due to polar heat amplification coincident with global warming provides added instability.

      Increasingly, Greenland surface temps are an island of cold surrounded by rapid warming — north, east, south, and in the ocean waters contacting its ice. It’s warmth that we see pulsing over Greenland as well in periodic heat spikes in the range of +10-25 C above average, but often followed by swings to much colder temps in the atmosphere over the Greenland ice mass. The result is a very high temperature variability, especially during winter.

      The result is an increase in snowfall which climate change forecasters expected to be an upshot of global heating from FF. The overall surface and basal melt rate, however, is more than enough to overwhelm, what in the whole, is a rather smaller added contribution from increases in snowfall. We also see a similar situation in Antarctica.

      Reply
  50. – On one side if the ledger the bio losses keep mounting up:

    “We have plenty of F-16 fighter jets, but we don’t have enough smokejumpers…”

    Massive wildfires raging in drought-stricken southern Chile have wiped out hundreds of plant species, and are now threatening animal life as well, officials warned.

    “We are witnessing a massive environmental catastrophe” in southern Chile, Accion Ecologica chief Luis Mariano Rendon told AFP from Mexico.

    “There have been whole species lost, such as the Araucaria araucana (monkey puzzle tree). They are trees that take hundreds of years to reach maturity. So this is a practically irreparable loss for current generations.”

    The trees, a distant relative of better known pine, are considered sacred by indigenous Mapuche people.

    …But for Rendon, “it is just embarrassing that Chile (Latin America’s wealthiest country) should be so totally defenseless.”

    “We have plenty of F-16 fighter jets, but we don’t have enough smokejumpers and repellers,” he said, referring to aerial firefighting equipment.

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-03-chile-wildfires-unique-flora-fauna.html#jCp

    Reply
  51. Jason Box at Economist Arctic Summit 2015

    Reply
    • wili

       /  March 22, 2015

      Thanks, tgi. That brief talk is well worth a watch. It includes a list of feedbacks not included in the major models.

      Reply
    • Agree, always interesting to hear Box speak. There is a big climate change conf this week but can’t remember where.

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 23, 2015

        A climate thank you to Vermont March 22, 2015
        http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/local/2015/03/20/climate-thank-vermont/25112561/?from=global&sessionKey=&autologin=
        U.S. Interior Secretary Sally Jewell thanked a group of Vermonters on Friday for preparing for climate change by looking for ways to reduce damage from future flooding…..

        Jewell was invited to the state by Democratic U.S. Sen. Patrick Leahy to speak at the Leahy Center Environmental Summit. The meeting at the ECHO Lake Aquarium and Science Center on the Burlington waterfront drew people from across the state to prepare for floods expected with the changing weather patterns.

        In introducing Jewell, Leahy said that even though the meeting was taking place a few feet from the still-frozen Lake Champlain, a fully frozen lake is much less common than it used to be.

        Reply
        • climatehawk1

           /  March 23, 2015

          Nice to see. Others of us in Vermont are working on a carbon pollution tax, which I think will be more to the point.

        • Good work, CH.

        • climatehawk1

           /  March 23, 2015

          Thanks! Little to no chance of passing this year, due to speed of legislative session and need to educate. Big push will come next year.

        • Fantastic! Maybe a model for the nation, going forward. Don’t forget the cities, either. We may have a plethora of rather bull-headed governors in many states when it comes to climate change. But many cities are starting to realize that this is an existential crisis for them in the medium to long term.

    • One point to make about what Box said. NH snow extent is much more important from April to Aug when the sun is actually shining in the Arctic. Snow cover in the NH during winter might not drop much because of inc precipitation balancing out warmer temps but the summer extent is dropping very quickly. This is a more serious positive feedback in the arctic than people realize.

      Reply
      • Absolutely. White reflective surface replaced by brown, black/gray, green or blue absorptive surface. It’s a rapid switch albedo nightmare.

        Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  March 23, 2015

        Amen.
        His Greenland Dark Snow map is sobering .

        Reply
    • james cole

       /  March 22, 2015

      “Snow cover on land is retreating a 4X the model projections!” This means permafrost tundra will be under much more forced melting, and that mean bad news for methane and CO2 release from the land to the atmosphere. YES, that video is interesting, much thanks for posting it.

      Reply
    • Wow. Good talk by Box. But what an uninformed question at the end. Apparently people are still thinking about exploiting the methane hydrates, burning them, and somehow labeling that as carbon mitigation. I’d call that simple bad thinking with a heavy dose of moral hazard.

      Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  March 23, 2015

      Published on Mar 22, 2015

      Professor Jason Box – the only scientist on the program at The Economist magazine’s 2015 Arctic Summit in Oslo, Norway.
      Still waiting for other presentations to become available.

      Reply
  52. Kevin Jones

     /  March 22, 2015

    Box is great. Thanks, todaysguestis.

    Reply
  53. eleggua

     /  March 22, 2015

    Solar Eclipse and Supermoon Have Europe Energy Providers Watchful MARCH 19, 2015
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/20/world/europe/solar-eclipse-and-supermoon-have-europe-energy-providers-watchful.html
    …Grid operators, of course, have to take into account the rising and setting of the sun every day. What made the eclipse a challenge was the speed at which the energy generated by solar panels was expected to drop and then rise again, at a time of day when demand was high, said Bruno Burger, a solar energy researcher for the Fraunhofer Institute.

    “It is above all the sharp return that is causing headaches for the grid operators,” Mr. Burger said. “It will be the equivalent of a sunrise, but three times as fast.”…

    The sharp drop in sunlight caused by the eclipse was expected to trigger a fluctuation of energy levels equivalent to that of shutting off 12 power plants at once, only to have a surge that amounted to the power generated by 19 plants switched back on.

    Grid operators in Germany and across Europe have been preparing for months, running simulations and exploring backup plans.

    In Germany, some saw the eclipse as an opportunity to test the capabilities of the power system, as the country pushes ahead with its goal to generate 80 percent of its energy needs from renewable sources. Last year, almost 26 percent of all electricity in Germany came from renewable power.

    Patrick Graichen, who heads Agora Energiewende, a policy institute in Berlin, said the eclipse provided a natural simulation of challenges that could be faced by an energy sector far more reliant on sunshine and wind.

    “If today’s relatively inflexible power system can cope with the eclipse, the power system of 2030 will deal with similar situations easily,” Mr. Graichen said in a statement. “For a successful energy transition in Germany, the power system will have to become more flexible anyway.”

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  March 22, 2015

      An abrupt .2-.3C increase. This would put us right back on GISS 5 year running mean steep curve from 1976-2000 which was about .6C in 25 years. Goodbye 1C. Here comes 2C.

      Reply
  54. Andy in San Diego

     /  March 23, 2015

    Lake Mead down 3 feet in past 3 weeks. Mostly transfers, however it is down 18 feet from the same date in 2014. I sense some gambling here as there appears to be relying on runoff for the summer via Lake Powell snow pack.

    Snow pack above Powell is 11″ water equivalent, In 2014, same date it was 18″.

    http://lakemead.water-data.com/graphingengine.php?graphing=1+back_days=

    Reply
    • Not looking too good there, Andy. We just keep edging deeper and deeper into water crisis for the SW.

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 23, 2015

      UN warns world could have 40 percent water shortfall by 2030 March 22, 2015
      http://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/science/article/UN-warns-world-could-have-40-percent-water-6147147.php
      The world could suffer a 40 percent shortfall in water in just 15 years unless countries dramatically change their use of the resource, a U.N. report warned Friday.

      Many underground water reserves are already running low, while rainfall patterns are predicted to become more erratic with climate change. As the world’s population grows to an expected 9 billion by 2050, more groundwater will be needed for farming, industry and personal consumption.

      The report predicts global water demand will increase 55 percent by 2050, while reserves dwindle. If current usage trends don’t change, the world will have only 60 percent of the water it needs in 2030, it said.

      Having less available water risks catastrophe on many fronts: crops could fail, ecosystems could break down, industries could collapse, disease and poverty could worsen, and violent conflicts over access to water could become more frequent.

      “Unless the balance between demand and finite supplies is restored, the world will face an increasingly severe global water deficit,” the annual World Water Development Report said, noting that more efficient use could guarantee enough supply in the future.

      The report, released in New Delhi two days before World Water Day, calls on policymakers and communities to rethink water policies, urging more conservation as well as recycling of wastewater as is done in Singapore. ….

      Reply
  55. Colorado Bob

     /  March 23, 2015

    New NASA Mission to Study Ocean Color, Airborne Particles and Clouds

    NASA is beginning work on a new satellite mission that will extend critical climate measurements of Earth’s oceans and atmosphere and advance studies of the impact of environmental changes on ocean health, fisheries and the carbon cycle.

    http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/New_NASA_Mission_to_Study_Ocean_Color_Airborne_Particles_and_Clouds_999.html

    Reply
    • I’m most keen on the aerosol dust particle part of the mission. A tentative 2022 launch is still a bit far off.

      ‘In addition to gathering data on ocean color, PACE will measure clouds and tiny airborne particles like dust, smoke and aerosols in the atmosphere to supplement measurements from existing NASA satellite missions. These measurements are critical for understanding the flow of natural and human made aerosols in the environment. Aerosols affect how energy moves in and out of Earth’s atmosphere directly by scattering sunlight, and indirectly by changing the composition of clouds. Aerosols also can affect the formation of precipitation in clouds and change rainfall patterns.’

      Reply
  56. Colorado Bob

     /  March 23, 2015

    This map shows the massive scale of Russia’s planned fortification of the Arctic

    The Arctic ice is slowly melting, and Russia is positioning itself to take advantage of new shipping routes along with natural resources available beneath the Arctic seabed.

    In order to capitalize on a changing Arctic, Russia is undertaking a major military upgrade of its northern coast and outlying Arctic archipelagos. These bases — which include search-and-rescue stations, military ports and airstrips, and military headquarters — are positioning Russia to become the dominant power in the region.

    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-russias-fortification-of-the-arctic-2015-3#ixzz3VAwDFZc8

    Reply
    • God they are just insane. Military buildup and attempted gaming of climate change. They’re putting arms and oil and gas infrastructure in a region of the world that is among the most likely to experience catastrophic geophysical changes.

      Reply
    • Not to mention that they are years and years behind on renewables development.

      Reply
      • climatehawk1

         /  March 23, 2015

        Worth noting that being “years behind on renewable development” probably reflects the basic mentality of a petrostate. Renewable energy is domestic everywhere, so the more widely it is developed, the less countries will need to indulge in economic or military imperialism to secure energy supplies.

        Reply
    • Ah, this is from the Heritage Foundation. Looks like yet another war they are trying to sell… Not to mention the increasingly backward oil-centric worldview promoting hydrocarbons as the primary commodity of strategic importance.

      We can take some of this with a grain of salt as it’s probably more than a bit of an inflated attempt to have a Cold War refrain and combined race for Arctic hydrocarbons. That policy stance is just Dr Strangelove beyond belief.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  March 23, 2015

        MY right wing bozo can beat up your ring wing bozo.

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  March 23, 2015

        …the Heritage Foundation. Looks like yet another war they are trying to sell

        Yes. A big war. Destablizing Russian economy via cascading oil prices: another facet of the fracking and tar sands scheme.
        Putin’s defence fixation deepens Russian budget problems Jan 15, 2015
        http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/15/russia-crisis-budget-idUSL6N0US25520150115
        President Vladimir Putin’s insistence on huge defence spending makes it hard to see how a government plan to make deep budget cuts will see Russia through a deepening economic crisis.

        Finance Minister Anton Siluanov called on Wednesday for a 10 percent cut in planned expenditures, warning that if oil were to average $50 a barrel this year, the budget would face a shortfall of 3 trillion roubles ($46 billion)….

        Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  March 23, 2015

        Paris – France’s right-wing parties, led by former president Nicolas Sarkozy, appeared to have edged out the far-right National Front to take first place in local elections on Sunday.

        This feels like 1914.

        Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  March 23, 2015

        Russia threatens to aim nuclear missiles at Denmark ships if it joins NATO shield

        http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/22/us-denmark-russia-idUSKBN0MI0ML20150322

        Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  March 23, 2015

        At a meeting in Greenland, the Nordic Council of Ministers (NCM) decided to shut down its Russia-based information offices “indefinitely”.

        In addition to the St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad offices, the decision will also affect contact centres in Murmansk, Petrozavodsk and Arkhangelsk.

        The closing of the offices comes after the Russian Ministry of Justice in January included the Nordic Council of Ministers on a list of NGOs it considers to be “foreign agents”.

        http://www.thelocal.se/20150312/nordics-pull-out-of-russia-over-agents-claims

        Reply
  57. Colorado Bob

     /  March 23, 2015

    Thousands of Dead Sea Sinkholes Open Up, Worrying Officials

    The Dead Sea has been losing water for years, but it’s a side effect of that evaporation that has experts especially worried.

    Over the last three decades, more than 3,000 sinkholes have opened up in dry parts of the ever-shrinking Dead Sea, according to ABC News. They’re developing at all times of the day and night, experts say, and they’re starting to affect roadways that run alongside the water.

    An article by Smithsonian Magazine in 2005 said there had been about 1,000 sinkholes reported to that point, so the pace at which these holes are forming seems to be accelerating.

    “It’s nature’s revenge,” Gidon Bromberg, the Israeli Director at EcoPeace Middle East, told ABC News. “These sinkholes are a direct result of the inappropriate mismanagement of water resources in the region.”

    Bromberg said there have been so many sinkholes, some are forming close enough to other sinkholes to merge, leading to an even bigger crater in the Earth.

    These holes are forming because the Dead Sea, which has one of the highest salinity levels of any waterway on the planet, is leaving behind huge salt pockets as it evaporates at a rate of some four feet per year, ABC News explained. Then, the presence of groundwater washes the salt back into the Dead Sea, and what’s left behind is a huge hole in the ground.

    http://www.weather.com/science/nature/news/dead-sea-sinkholes

    Reply
    • More geophysical changes — this time due to both increased evaporation and water mis-management.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  March 23, 2015

        Human folly and a climate changing faster than anyone grew up with.

        What do we do ?

        Elect more right wing thinkers.

        Reply
  58. Colorado Bob

     /  March 23, 2015

    From the Taos News –
    Rare Pacific warming pattern may mean wet spring for New Mexico

    By early March, the waters off the eastern equator and along the West Coast were continuing a warming trend that had begun in December. It was 1941, and the pattern forming in the Pacific Ocean would make for the wettest year on record way inland in New Mexico.

    Now meteorologists are seeing that same rare set of temperature conditions in the Pacific again and predicting that the recent rains could be just the start of more wet weather ahead for Central and Northern New Mexico this spring.

    “Odds are in our favor,” said Andrew Church, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Albuquerque, which put together a spring precipitation outlook. “When we look at previous years with similar sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, places in New Mexico have done well compared to their average for March, April and May.”

    http://www.taosnews.com/news/article_8e67bf36-d0bc-11e4-bfce-3b0009fbd5e9.html

    This will be something to watch.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  March 23, 2015

      If the warming trend continues, the conditions could mean a good wet monsoon season for New Mexico as well, he said. The precipitation would help relieve New Mexico from the grip of a five-year drought. At the same time, the state will need to be prepared for major flash flooding if the monsoons prove as strong as they have in past years, when conditions were similar, Church said.

      Reply
    • rustj2015

       /  March 23, 2015

      Thanks for this news! Local weather forecast just began to include “fire danger” on the maps.

      Reply
    • Given the swings we’ve seen lately, might be more than we bargain for.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  March 23, 2015

        Amen, this may be the same pattern from 1941, but it will have much bigger muscles.

        I like Andrew Church, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Albuquerque, for going out on a limb. So far he’s been right , wind speeds on the Llano Estacado are very mild for March. Not one sand storm .

        Reply
        • That’s basically an amplification of the summer monsoonal pattern. A huge heat and moisture stack stretches well across Pacific equatorial regions ( thanks to human warming) for such a brute to draw from, should it emerge.

  59. rustj2015

     /  March 23, 2015

    This just in: March 22, is UN World Water Day, with this message from EDF:
    As a society, we use a tremendous amount of water to generate electricity…

    (hmm, won’t show) graphic tells us that wind uses 0 gallons, solar uses 26 gallons, natural gas uses 198 gallons, and coal uses 687 gallons — to power a home for one month.

    Reply
  60. eleggua

     /  March 23, 2015

    Authorities In Paris Ban Half Of City’s Cars To Reduce Pollution Mar 23, 2015
    http://dailysciencejournal.com/authorities-in-paris-ban-half-of-citys-cars-to-reduce-pollution/21814/
    France’s capital, Paris, is all set to ban half of the city’s cars from the road on Monday, in a bid to curb high levels of smog, which briefly made the French capital’s air the most polluted in the world.

    The city’s authorities have stated that, from Monday, only cars with odd-numbered license plates will be seen in the city and surrounding towns of the City of Light. However, public vehicles such as taxis, ambulance and electric cars are exempted from the ban. This is the third time in the city’s history that such measures have been implemented, with the last occasion being in March 2014….

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 23, 2015

      Before and after the desolation of smog:

      Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  March 23, 2015

      In the Jason Box link up thread , he speaks about the lazy jet stream with deep loops not being in the models. This pattern has been beating them over the head since last September with the floods in the southeast. Slow systems with deep loops.

      Reply
  61. eleggua

     /  March 23, 2015

    Florida’s State Employees are Preparing for Climate Change, Even as Their Governor Bans the Phrase March 22, 2015
    http://www.newrepublic.com/article/121341/florida-gov-rick-scotts-ban-climate-change-hasnt-halted-action
    …The employees I’ve found during my reporting are nonetheless the ones doing the long thinking, working to address the effects of climate change, even as they have to hunker to avoid political interference. They know they’ll be here when Rick Scott is gone. So will the problems they’re working on….

    The extent of what all of this means, we don’t yet know. While some inside the DEP have expressed relief that the word is out (pun intended) and sure as hell ain’t going back in, they also expressed fear that their projects are now in peril. They worry that they’ve been outed, and that funding for climate change work will be cut….

    Democrats know this well, and already some have taken advantage of the climate change outrage. Almost immediately, the state’s Democratic senators announced a series of proposals on energy issues—promoting solar power and electric cars, and opposing hydraulic fracturing. “While Governor Scott may be afraid to acknowledge ‘climate change’ or ‘global warming,’ we’re not,” senate minority leader Arthenia Joyner said in a statement….

    state Senator Jeff Clemens asked Bryan Koon, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, whether he was aware of the new FEMA rules “dealing with climate change.”

    Koon said he was aware. “Future versions of our mitigation plan will be required to have language discussing that issue,” he said.

    “What issue is that?” Clemens asked.

    “The issue you mentioned earlier,” Koon replied.

    The committee members laughed, but Koon never uttered the redacted phrase. Clemens later told me: “It would be fun to try and get a different department head to say ‘climate change’ every week.”….

    Reply
  62. eleggua

     /  March 23, 2015

    The Everglades’ Mammals Are Disappearing, and We Can Definitely Blame the Pythons Mar 22, 2015
    http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/13625/20150322/everglades-mammals-disappearing-definitely-blame-pythons.htm
    … new study has found the first concrete example of this decline, with invasive pythons named as the primary killers of the region’s disappearing marsh rabbits….

    ….in the python haunts a stunning two thirds of the rabbits killed were killed by pythons. That rate alone, the researchers note, is unsustainable, and would lead to slow population declines for the rabbits. However, once they factored in the fact that native predators are also still on the hunt for these animals too, the researchers were able to conclude that the once-prevalent rabbits could face a local extinction in the Everglades.

    And of-course, that would spell disaster for other mammals in the park as well, as the rabbits hold a serious position in the region’s food chain.

    Unfortunately, there’s not much that can be done to stop this. Wildlife ecologist Frank Mazzotti told local media in the past that currently biologists only have a one percent detection rate for the elusive Burmese in the marshlands. That rate, he suggests, needs to be at least 50 times greater for eradication efforts to make an impact.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  March 23, 2015

      eleggua

      The “Puny Humans Theory” says that man is too small to effect the Earth , and it’s systems .
      Therefore these snakes got there by the will of God.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  March 23, 2015

        eleggua –
        I saw study of the sea life in San Francisco Bay a few years back , it’s all Asian now. The really small creatures . Everyone of of them came in blast tanks of ships.

        Reply
  63. Colorado Bob

     /  March 23, 2015

    Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah and Washington had their warmest winters on record, Gottschalck said.

    Above-average temperatures are expected to continue this spring in the Far West and northern Rocky Mountains.

    Above-average precipitation is predicted for parts of the Southwest and the southern and central Rockies.

    http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/arizona/investigations/2015/03/22/drought-continue-west-forecasters-predict/25205007/

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  March 23, 2015

      The San Joaquin Valley has received two years’ worth of precipitation in the past four years, Gottschalck said. The drought is entering its fourth year.

      Reply
  64. Colorado Bob

     /  March 23, 2015

    Drought forces Brazilians to curb their addiction to multiple daily showers

    Brazilians love their showers. Many shower three times a day, and the AP reports that Brazilians are “the world’s most frequent bathers, taking on average 12 showers a week, putting rub-a-dub-dub up there with soccer and Carnival as essentials of the culture.”

    In response to the drought, many are taking what we here in the US might call “combat showers.” That’s when you get wet, turn off the water while you scrub, and then turn the water back on to rinse. Brazilians would rather do that than take fewer showers.

    http://www.pri.org/stories/2015-03-13/drought-forces-brazilians-curb-their-addiction-multiple-daily-showers

    Reply
  65. Colorado Bob

     /  March 23, 2015

    It would be helpful if we all just started a data set of how much fresh water is left.

    I mean up the thread several water facts were posted , but without science , they are just “factoids”.

    Reply
  66. Colorado Bob

     /  March 23, 2015

    fresh water –
    The most water poor country on Earth is Yemen .

    This drought in the Mideast is about spread into Iran, Jordan, and Turkey. Millions of people are about to leave their farms just like Syria.

    They are at the end of their ropes just like the Syrian framers. When you run out of water, you have to move.

    Reply
  67. Colorado Bob

     /  March 23, 2015

    The basic violence we see today is rooted in water.

    Reply
  68. Colorado Bob

     /  March 23, 2015

    In these people had rain like Iowa , there would be no Isis. The people they attack would be out in their corn fields. Notice the next Isis clip you see, there not one green plant .

    It’s just dirt.

    Reply
  69. Colorado Bob

     /  March 23, 2015

    It’s just dirt. They are fighting over dirt, not farms , not vines, not fields of wheat., not goats, but just dirt.

    I say , let them have it . Build the that 7th century idea in a giant pile of sand. But no Toyota’s, no lap tops, no internet, no explosives , no bullets, no radio, no 105 mm. shells, no ak-47’s all of this was built in the west.

    And it is not “pure”.

    Reply
  70. Kevin Jones

     /  March 23, 2015

    BINGO! The Guardian reports Beyond Petroleum paid Inhofe $10,000 for his snowball. Fed-Ex is on the way over. I’m making 10 a minute!

    Reply
  71. Kevin Jones

     /  March 23, 2015

    The Telegraph reports the annual wildebeest migration…one of the most spectacular events of the natural world…begins three months early. Drought suspected. Witness “astonished”.

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  March 23, 2015

      Wildebeest migration begins three months early 20 Mar 2015
      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/safariandwildlifeholidays/11485720/Wildebeest-migration-begins-three-months-early.html
      … “It’s one of the earliest sightings on record,” said Bradley Murray, general manager of Singita Faru Faru Lodge on the Grumeti River, in the heart of Tanzania’s Serengeti National Park. “They started passing through the reserve unexpectedly on May 1 last year and we thought that was a big deal – but this is incredible. …

      …The early arrival of the wildebeest provides travellers with the opportunity to witness the spectacle of the migration without paying peak season prices. …

      …The increased likelihood of seeing a lion make a kill is part of the migration’s appeal to travellers. …

      Torture porn at a bargain price.

      Reply
  72. Kevin Jones

     /  March 23, 2015

    ….Eco-tourists delighted since off season rates are low… Is there a word for 100% sorrow AND 100% rage?

    Reply
  73. Kevin Jones

     /  March 23, 2015

    http://www.weather.gov says Happy Meteorological Day!. WMO theme this year: Climate knowledge for climate action.

    Reply
  74. Kevin Jones

     /  March 23, 2015

    …happy World Meteorological Day!……

    Reply
  75. Aldous

     /  March 23, 2015

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/03/climate-change-fossil-fuels-oil/

    “Climate change is the epitome of a market failure. It is the breakdown of a system we treat as an atmospheric commons — a public and shared system the market does not see or value. Many of course criticize the market for not accounting for the cost of dumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere (despite the corrupt efforts to establish markets for carbon). Yet we haven’t thought enough about how markets also tend to produce booms and busts that create long periods of low energy prices and lessened political will to change our energy system.

    An energy transition won’t happen magically through entrepreneurial innovation and price signals. We need a mobilization of the public sector to both destroy the fossil fuel industry and produce the conditions for a new energy system. It will require massive public works projects to create an electricity grid more conducive to decentralized renewable energy systems (as well as highly centralized ones like the solar thermal plants in the southwest).”

    Reply
  76. 032315 Polar Jet Stream MIA? over E. Pac & W. NA

    Reply
  77. Andy in San Diego

     /  March 23, 2015

    Will Alaska’s weird winter be followed by equally strange summer?

    “… the Copper River Basin and Southeast Alaska on Friday had less than half their normal snowpack for this time of year; snowpack was 30 percent of normal in the southern Kenai Peninsula and 25 percent of the norm in the southern part of the peninsula…”

    “… There isn’t usually grass showing in January …”

    “The official start of the fire season — the date when burn permits are required — is now April 1 rather than May 1, a change made a few years ago.”

    http://www.adn.com/article/20150322/will-alaskas-weird-winter-be-followed-equally-strange-summer

    Reply
  1. We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Graph — Global Sea Level Rise Just Went off the Chart | robertscribbler

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