Hot Blob #2 Takes Aim at Sea Ice — Abnormally Warm Waters Invading the Arctic Through Bering and Chukchi

A lot of attention has been paid to a ‘Blob’ of unusual warmth at the ocean surface in the Northeastern Pacific. And for good reason, for that Blob of human-warmed water has had wide-ranging negative impacts on both weather and sea life. Now there’s a second hot Blob forming in the Bering and Chukchi seas. One that may also have some rather significant effects as the summer of 2015 continues.

Abnormally Warm Waters Running Toward the Sea Ice

Hot Blob #2 is a vast stretch of warm water covering the Bering and Chukchi seas between Alaska and Kamchatka (Neven, in his most recent sea ice summary, touched on this building warm water zone here). It encompasses surface waters in an usually frigid region that now feature temperatures ranging from 3 to 5.5 degrees Celsius above normal. Covering an area roughly 800 miles in diameter, this pool of outlandishly warm ocean waters is being fed by currents running up from the south and by heat bleeding off Alaskan and Siberian land masses. In this case, land masses that are also experiencing record heat.

image

(Hot Blob #2 forms in the Bering as its warm waters are swept north toward the Arctic sea ice pack. The above sea surface temperature anomaly map shows a broad stretch of much hotter than typical surface waters being pulled poleward by prevailing ocean currents. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

Though the abnormal warmth is also likely fed by a powerful albedo switch from white, reflective sea ice, to dark, sunlight absorbing ocean, other factors associated with El Nino and related to the hot blob off the North American West Coast are also likely in play. And of particular interest in this present extreme hot water situation are currents flowing northward out of these warm pools and directly into the Arctic. Currents that have been eating away at the ice since winter.

One warm water bearing current — the Alaskan Coastal Current — runs directly out of the abnormally hot surface zone in the Northeastern Pacific (Blob #1). This current flows along the North American Continental Shelf, out past the Aleutian Island Chain and finally up into the Bering Sea. A second current — the Siberian Coastal Current — feeds into the Bering from the Asian Continental Shelf. These currents then combine and push Bering Sea waters on through the Bering Strait and up into the Chukchi Sea.

Algae bloom hot pool

(Algae blooms, like this one in the Chukchi Sea just south of the ice pack, have been a common feature of the Pacific Ocean hot pools. The warmer waters are a preferred environment for microbes which can see some amazingly rapid population explosions. If the blooms become too numerous they can rob the ocean surface waters of nutrients and die off en masse. The decay of dead masses of algae can then leech away the oceans’ life-giving oxygen, setting off and contributing to a chain of harmful ocean anoxia. In a warming world, this process, combined with disruption of ocean currents and the basic fact that warmer waters bear less oxygen in solution, is a major contributor to mass extinction events. Image source: LANCE MODIS.)

Northward propagation of these currents during spring and summer plays a critical role in the rate of sea ice recession in the Bering, Chukchi, Beaufort and East Siberian Seas. Waters warmed by the summer sun and by the more rapidly heating continents amplify in the Bering Strait before making contact with the sea ice and pushing it to melt and recede.

Impacts Already Visible Up the Coast

This year, waters in the Strait are extraordinarily warm — measuring 5.4 degrees above normal surface water temperatures. A plug of 5 C + above average water entering the Chukchi, Bering, Beaufort and East Siberian seas at a time when solar insolation is hitting peak intensity and during a period when nearby Arctic regions like Alaska are experiencing some of their hottest temperatures ever recorded. These waters, at temperatures in the range of 7-8 degrees Celsius, are warm enough to rapidly melt any ice they contact. And they’re flooding directly toward the ice pack.

Barrow Alaska

(Ice rapidly melting off of Barrow, Alaska on June 23, 2015. Ice is seen receding from the near shore zone even as the ice pack further out breaks into dark blue patches of open ocean. Image source: Barrow Ice Cam.)

Unusually warm surface water and air temperature impacts can already be seen further down the coast in places like Barrow, Alaska. Today, near shore sea ice dramatically melted and off-shore sea ice has retreated poleward — revealing the tell-tale blue of open ocean in the distance. An extreme one day change for Barrow sea ice, which only featured melt ponds and some near-shore melt 24 hours before.

Conditions, Model Runs Point Toward Substantial Thinning

Looking northward, we find ice pack conditions showing substantial thinning, significant melt pond formation over the surface ice and increasingly disassociated ice flows in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian Seas. Near shore ice in the East Siberian Sea (ESS) has taken on a vivid blue or glassy appearance indicative of melt pond formation. Melt and compaction wedges have formed in the ESS along an axis pointing toward the pole. In the Chukchi, sea ice recession and thinning appear to be proceeding quite rapidly, while dispersing ice in the Beaufort is hitting warmer surface waters, fed by Mackenzie River outflow, and melting.

Navy ARCc Model Run

(The ARCc model run shows rapid thinning in the Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS through June 30. Image source: US Navy.)

The Navy’s ARCc historic and forecast model run for May 30 through June 30 shows rapid thinning of sea ice in the affected regions. The forecast run for the next seven days shows extreme thinning continuing through the ESS and Chukchi, with thicker ice in the Beaufort also experiencing substantial reductions (Note that the Navy’s GLBb model runs look even worse).

Overall, given the fact that storms are now ranging through substantial sections of the Arctic, pushing for more sea ice dispersal, losses will tend to show up more in the sea ice area and volume measures first. Dispersal will also tend to mute extent losses for a time. Given the delay in area and volume tracking, it’s likely that overall impacts to sea ice will tend to be muted in the measures over coming days with a clearer signal showing up by late June and early July. But despite these underlying and complicating weather conditions, the fact remains that a lot of unusually warm water is heading northward toward the ice, with likely greater impacts to follow.

Links:

Earth Nullschool

US Navy

Barrow Ice Cam

The Arctic Ice Blog

A Deadly Climb From Glaciation to Hothouse

Awakening the Horrors of the Ancient Hothouse — Hydrogen Sulfide in the World’s Warming Oceans

Hat Tip to Colorado Bob

Hat Tip to Ouse MD

Leave a comment

69 Comments

  1. climatehawk1

     /  June 23, 2015

    Tweet scheduled.

    Reply
  2. Colorado Bob

     /  June 23, 2015

    Phytoplankton bloom in the Chukchi Sea , 6 days ago –

    Reply
  3. Those blooms are still visible in today’s shot. More widespread if anything.

    Reply
  4. Colorado Bob

     /  June 23, 2015

    The Southern tip of Greenland is amazingly clear today , at the 250 meter resolution one can see the first melt water of the season entering the sea along the West coast.

    Reply
  5. Colorado Bob

     /  June 23, 2015

    (East Siberian Sea (ESS) has taken on a vivid blue or glassy appearance indicative of melt pond formation)

    Here’s great example of what RS was speaking of , this Northwest Greenland , notice all the pale baby blue . I’ve been watching these images for years , and have never seen so much sea ice taking on this color.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  June 23, 2015

      Note ice sitting on land is still bright white, but everything floating on water around it , has that baby blue color.

      Reply
  6. Wow. It’s shocking how quickly and dramatically the ice is thinning. It looks like the multi-year ice above Alaska has been reduced to half it’s previous thickness. That’s particularly troubling because, if I’m not mistaken, that mass of multi-year ice that stretches from Alaska across the Canadian archipelago to Greenland is all that remains of the Arctic ice cap in big melt years. In 2007 and 2012 that chunk of ice was all that made it through summer. I’m sure you’ve all seen the animation from 1979-present that shows pulses of discharge of ice past Greenland from year to year, with the multi-year ice suffering more and more. While an ice free summer arctic is inevitable in the near future, it’s still very troubling to me. Especially the speed with which it’s happening. And to think, the 2007 IPCC report told us Arctic ice would make it to 2100.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  June 23, 2015

      Ryan in New England

      7-11 sells stronger ice in their fountain drinks now.

      Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  June 23, 2015

      Ryan in New England
      Nature never read the 2007 IPCC report . By the way , I’m not picking you . Just being a one liner internet jackass.

      I’m as shocked as you with what we are seeing. I read thing about the high meadows today , in the Rockies. The Humming birds, bumble bees, and flowers are in big trouble. It seems in the middle of our “new” summers flower production drops off.

      The whole thing made me sick. I will post it but it is not good for some of the smallest things in the Rockies. Even if there is there is a forest burned to the ground in a fire it kills seeds 3 feet deep.

      I read about the old fires in Arizona . A 3 foot diameter ponderosa pine just stood there, while the understory burned. That hasn’t happened for 30 years. These fires we are seeing are killing every seed in the ground , that have been waiting 30 years for fire to the release them.
      And if one reads RS , like me, he fears fires burning deep into ground. This happy talk about fire being part of the cycle of life is dead as a boot. Every wild land fire now burns deep into the ground. Period. It Kills seeds as deep as 3 feet.

      Because they burn so hot. That doesn’t renew the land it sterilizes it.
      So when one watches these fire images this season, remember . These are hottest fires man has ever seen , and they burning trees we have never seen burn before.
      As Alaska the state biologist said :
      “The black spruce is gasoline on a stick.”
      Because fire , isn’t part of it’s life cycle. Black spruce makes up a most of the biomass of the Tiaga standing as trees. They are not ponderosa pine. Fire will not spread their seeds, it just burns then to the ground,

      Reply
      • That’s very troubling, Bob. I’ve read about the heightening intensity of fires, and what you described is something almost nobody knows about (except for people like those here in Robert’s comments section) and when they hear of fires they dismiss it as trivial, something that always happens.

        I was in Colorado in March, and what really stuck out for me while traveling down I-70 was all the dead and dying trees. Everywhere I went, from A-Basin to Breckenridge to Vail to Steamboat. Everywhere was partially affected, with some areas totally devestated. It made me sick to my stomach. Ridge after ridge of dead, grey trees that are now fuel for the next fire. And when you kill seeds in the ground, as you pointed out, the hillsides remain free of tree roots to hold the soil in place, and leads to dramatically increased erosion during rainfalls. The entire Rocky Mountain ecosystem is falling apart. Remember the epic floods around Boulder in 2013? I expect we will see more of that in the future

        Reply
        • Bob’s right about these fires. And once the permafrost thaws it becomes a peat-like understory that just burns and burns.

          Speaking of fires. The Alaska ones have put a massive, thick cloud of smoke into the Arctic skies. Visible on MODIS now.

      • Dave Person

         /  June 24, 2015

        Hey but Bob,
        We will eventually look like Greece, Malta, Crete, or southern Italy. Think of the tourist potential, particularly after we get rid of those damn trees that spoil the view. Look on the bright side.
        dave

        Reply
  7. LJR

     /  June 23, 2015

    How deep are these “heat blobs?” A few feet? Hundreds of feet? Highly variable? All I see here is a two dimensional view. The essential measure, I think, is energy content. I notice that ENSO buoys show the depth of ocean heat pulses. Are there similar buoys in these northern regions?

    Reply
  8. A little positive news. Let’s hope the Pope’s message is starting to wake up some conservatives. If it weren’t for Republicans, we would probably have reduced our carbon footprint by 80% by now, and maybe see more ice in the Arctic.

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/23/3673212/faith-leaders-back-pope-on-climate/

    Reply
  9. rustj2015

     /  June 23, 2015

    This is a REAL hot blob warning from Environmental Defense Fund:

    America’s Clean Power Plan—our first-ever national limits on the climate pollution spewing from our power plants—is expected to be finalized this summer. So it’s no surprise that the attacks on climate action are heating up—and one is coming up for a vote in the House this week.
    Rep. Ed Whitfield (R-KY), has chosen to ignore the nearly 9 million comments Americans sent to the EPA supporting these rules. He’s chosen to ignore the fact that a recent study by Yale found that nearly two-thirds of Americans support strict CO2 limits on existing power plants, and that public support for clean energy is at an all-time high. He’s chosen instead to attack the Clean Power Plan, introducing a bill that gives states the option of simply “opting out” of obeying the law, so their power plants can keep emitting unlimited amounts of dangerous pollution.
    A vote on his bill is likely to happen TOMORROW—and we need you to act NOW. Tell your members of Congress to reject Whitfield’s disgraceful bill.
    This bill—dubbed the “Ratepayer Protection Act”—doesn’t even live up to its own name. This fearmongering about rate increases is blatantly false, and the EPA estimates that the Clean Power Plan will actually lower Americans’ electric bills by 8% when fully implemented. Allowing states to evade the law does nothing but “protect” the American people from saving money.
    The fact is, this bill encourages states to ignore the law of the land,and does so without addressing the threat of climate change. Many of America’s officials are burying their heads in the sand, ignoring the climate problem even as evidence mounts and dire predictions become a reality—and it has got to stop. This is not the leadership we need.
    Tell your elected officials: it’s time to protect Americans from the dangers of climate change. It’s time to reject Whitfield’s attack on climate action.

    https://secure2.edf.org/site/Advocacy;jsessionid=A9700E148CEA97EA3E54E65BD7A65E80.app314b?cmd=display&page=UserAction&id=2612&autologin=true&utm_source=EDF%20action%20network&utm_medium=email-43941&utm_campaign=advocacy&link=body_text2

    Please give a notification of heads up to these *&^%$$#@!

    Reply
  10. Here’s some more good news. Despite 3% GDP growth, CO2 emissions did not increase. Wind and solar are the primary reason for the growth in renewable energy production (I think we all knew that). We still need to end fossil fuel subsidies in favor of renewables.

    http://www.desmogblog.com/2015/06/23/first-time-40-years-economic-growth-did-not-lead-more-carbon-emissions-2014

    Reply
    • So this would be a cue for me, as a wind power enthusiast, to note that in 2014, wind provided about 5% of U.S. electricity (i.e., enough to power the entire country for more than two weeks) and displaced emissions of: 125 million tons of CO2 (equivalent of 28 million autos), 170,000 tons of acid rain pollution (sulfur dioxide), and 104,000 tons of nitrogen oxides. This despite two decades of on-again, off-again government support. I’d say we could have tripled that with steady policy backing.

      Reply
      • If wind received just half of the subsidies that fossil fuel received we would already be getting most of our power from wind and solar. The inconsistent support for wind makes it difficult for companies to form a long range business plan. We would see a lot more production and installation if our lawmakers would simply support renewables. Many countries currently get over 20% of their power from wind.

        Reply
  11. I noticed the shown historic and forecast model doesn’t predict the recession of ice from Pt Barrow, as plainly evident in the videocam capture. So reality is even worse.

    Reply
  12. Greg

     /  June 24, 2015

    Is there such a thing as air conditioning in Revelstoke, British Columbia? 100 (f) this weekend. 110 in Boise, Idaho.

    http://www.weather.com/forecast/regional/news/record-west-heat-wave-northwest-great-basin-latejun2015

    Reply
    • It’s going to get brutal up there. Nice to see we’re ahead of the weather channel on this one. Like to make that climate change denying owner of theirs eat our dust😉

      Reply
  13. Colorado Bob

     /  June 24, 2015

    The Doors –

    Break on Through-

    Reply
    • synaxis

       /  June 24, 2015

      Yup, best there ever was … this album and Strange Days. But, I would also add the Wheels of Fire double album by the Cream (1968). Strongly recommend Jenny Diski’s short but pungent book, The Sixties (2009). Great stuff.

      Reply
  14. james cole

     /  June 24, 2015

    Informed comment needed on more stories of global cooling coming due to decreased sun output. This today in our Daily Mail. They quote the Met Office.
    ” Met Office’s Hadley Centre, which looks at long term forecasts, said there was a 15-20 per cent chance that we could match the temperatures last seen in 1645-1715 – sometimes called the Little Ice Age – when the River Thames froze over.

    This could take place at some point within the next 40 years.

    The prediction is based on counting sun spots – dark patches on the sun – that are hot spots and signs of increased solar activity.

    The decrease in the sun’s heat is known as a ‘Maunder minimum’ after Walter Maunder – the astronomer who first noted sunspots were at their lowest during the cold period between 1645 and 1715.

    Studies by the Met Office and others have found a decrease in sun spots – suggesting the sun may be going through a cooler phase.

    The cooling effect is expected to be strongest in northern Europe, the UK and eastern parts of North America – particularly during winter. For example, for northern Europe the cooling is in the range -0.4 to -0.8 °C.

    This is because computer simulations predict a big fall in solar activity would disrupt winds and suck cold air southwards from the Arctic.

    Worst case scenarios for global warming are a 6 degree increase by 2100″

    Am I to believe this Met Office report? Or what?

    Reply
    • The report states that there’s a 15-20 percent chance of a new minimum in solar activity which would result in a relative 0.1 C of global cooling. 6 C minus 0.1 C is 5.9 C warming. It’s not even a minor bump in the road to the human heat forcing from greenhouse gasses globally. It may have some regional impact on Europe. But I’m thinking Europe should be more concerned about the impact of Greenland melt, of Arctic sea ice melt, and of the likely expansion of the Sahara climate into sections of Southern Europe.

      Anyone claiming that this has a major influence and in any way substantially slows down global warming due to fossil fuel emissions is simply spreading misinformation and being very irresponsible. To put this particular solar variation feature into context, the human addition of wind and solar energy has already had more overall cooling impact, by replacing future fossil fuel burning, than the transitory and decadal impact of a potential new grand minimum.

      I could see where some are using this, reiteration of the same report released in 2013, as some way to grasp at straws in the face of rapidly ramping global temperatures. Temperatures, you may well note, that are increasing despite a long-term fall in solar activity. But it’s nothing new. Nothing we didn’t know already. Nothing the global science community hasn’t considered. And nothing that could in any significant way change the massive impacts of ongoing human greenhouse gas emissions or alter our responsibility to, as rapidly as possible, reduce and eliminate those emissions.

      This is the second time I’ve clarified information regarding the Hadley Report here. So fair warning on any posts that take the Hadley Report out of context.

      Again, the Hadley scientists themselves note that a new minimum can’t save us from human forced climate change. So what part of that statement is so difficult to understand?

      Reply
    • Yvan Dutil

       /  June 24, 2015

      I concur with the analysis of Robert. I have debated this with Canadian deniers last fall (http://voir.ca/yvan-dutil/2014/11/25/non-ce-nest-pas-le-soleil/).

      Sun does have an effect, but it is small. Even a Maunder minimum would have such dramatic effect today. Actually, the sun is already pretty low and this does not make much a difference. However, I happen that the effect of sun is more important in Europe than almost anywhere. This is why we get this impression based on historical account that the sun has a strong climatic effect.

      This recent review by Lookwood resume pretty much the situation.
      http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10712-012-9181-3

      Reply
      • Yvan Dutil

         /  June 24, 2015

        Correction : Maunder minimum would NOT have such

        and

        However, IT happens that

        Reply
    • Jeremy

       /  June 24, 2015

      The Daily Mail is a joke publication. Although a popular read here in the UK, it’s commonly refered to as the Daily Wail. It’s a renown climate change denier and has often been critized as such.

      http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2011/07/daily-mail-and-the-global-warming-policy-foundation

      http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/03/18/global_warming_denial_debunking_misleading_climate_change_claims_by_david.html

      And in case you’re not sure what the Daily Mail is all about, enjoy this parody:

      Reply
  15. Colorado Bob

     /  June 24, 2015

    Here’s the thing,, tens of millions are coming to the Vatican to stand with the Pope. I read the Heartland follow – up. They had 40 speakers.e The AGU meeting draws 25,000 people every year.
    They should be called out for the. tiny pack of lairs they are . Everyday , in every way. .
    They should be called out for the. tiny pack of lairs they are . Everyday , in every way. .

    They should be beaten like a third world drum.
    i

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  June 24, 2015

      Hear, hear!

      Reply
    • Tiny is right. The only reason they have any prominence is due to fossil fuel industry funding and what amounts to an ongoing well funded political and media advertising campaign to perpetuate their nonsense. In other words, without monied special interests backing them, their arguments would have been roundly and soundly defeated long ago. Their unreasonable perpetuation is merely an upshot of the ‘lie oft repeated.’ And, in my view, about 80 percent of the fools toeing their ridiculous line suffer from a modern version of Stockholm Syndrome — they’ve been force-fed the same message for so long, they’ve made the unconscious decision that caving to it is simply easier.

      The Pope standing up to them is like the rangy kid standing up to the bully in the schoolyard. It dispels the myth and the implied fear of the institutional power of the fossil fuel industry. Anyone who stands up to them has this effect, but the Pope has a voice that carries far and is multiplied by others who may well stand against the Pope on other matters (population restraint for example). The Pope’s sharp defection from the conservative camp on climate change (and it must be noted that the Catholic Church has always come from a point of view of attempting to preserve life and has never been comfortable with climate change — even the more conservative leaders of the church) drastically upsets the apple cart. It makes it impossible for conservatives to claim that ‘God is on their side’ with any legitimacy and without any challenge. They look more and more like what they are — political hacks seeking a religious justification for wrecking and abusing the Earth (creation). In essence, they are using God’s name to cover their own action as ‘destroyers of the Earth.’

      In all the literature of the Bible, this is the one vastly unforgivable sin. God does not seek repentance from the destroyers of the Earth. God will destroy them.

      Those who work for environmental justice should therefore be heartened to have the church as an ally when it comes to the specific issue of climate change. We may have other differences with church policy on other issues. But on the critical issue of preventing abuse and destruction of the Earth, we can certainly work together to make a good change that will be beneficial to all humankind, to all creatures. And at the very basic level, the most basic, we are also working together to address the root exploitation that has been so harmful to so many. The bad actor behavior that has caused the trouble in the first place.

      Reply
  16. Greg

     /  June 24, 2015

    Watching late night international news. Only time to get a real in depth analysis. Coverage of Pakistan shows how miserable this heat wave is with night time temperatures at normal highs (90 f) and everyone fasting and not drinking during the day for Ramadan. Hundreds dead so far and it will continue for at least a week. Meanwhile south of there flooding and deaths in India with monsoon significantly above average and flooding in China. Bet a blocking high is smack over Pakistan.

    Reply
    • I didn’t know you could get decent climate coverage in the late night news. Should be prime time, though. Huge underlying feature of all the social stresses we see today.

      Reply
      • Greg

         /  June 24, 2015

        Helps to have a job with a shift that ends at 2:00 a.m. courtesy of “national security”. CNN brings in a team out of Atlanta that all have African and British accents, to reach out internationally and their meteorologist appears to have no gloves on and say what they really think!

        Reply
  17. nick

     /  June 24, 2015

    The blob is approaching the ESAS and its methane hydrates. If it becomes a common occurrence with global warming, the huge sub-sea methane reserves could be at risk faster than we would have thought.

    Reply
  18. Reblogged this on jpratt27.

    Reply
  19. Ouse M.D.

     /  June 24, 2015

    How d we know if this second blob wasn’t caused by albedo- feedback amd not by ocean currents churning up heat?
    If similar magnitude albedo feedbacks kick in elsewhere in the melt- out process we could be in for a real runaway- train…

    Reply
    • There’s probably a good deal of albedo feedback going on. The article touched on it somewhat in mentioning the atmospheric warmth coming off the nearby continents (sans snow cover). Although should probably edit to include a dark ocean reference.

      The factors likely in play include atmospheric and ocean feedback from El Niño. Ocean transport of hot pool energy northward from Blob #1. Loss of snow cover and related albedo change heating the atmosphere of local land masses which has an impact on nearby SST in the Bering (and further warms the currents there). And albedo switch in the Bering and Chukchi due to ice loss and final melt/warming of the surface waters.

      This article focused on warm water transport by currents because this region in particular has seen this kind of transport heavily impacting the ice even during the winter of 2014-2015.

      Reply
  20. synaxis

     /  June 24, 2015

    BBC presentation on the Devonian extinction … excellent illustrations: the mass extinction closest to what’s going on in the modern world.

    “The Devonian extinction saw the oceans choke to death”
    http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20150624-the-day-the-oceans-died

    Reply
  21. The Fate of Trees: How Climate Change May Alter Forests Worldwide

    By the end of the century, the woodlands of the Southwest will likely be reduced to weeds and shrubs. And scientists worry that the rest of the planet may see similar effects

    Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-fate-of-trees-how-climate-change-may-alter-forests-worldwide-20150312#ixzz3dzmInQRk

    Reply
  22. “Sue Natali, of the Woods Hole Research Center in Massachusetts and co-author of a paper recently published in Nature, told negotiators about the new data and says the numbers indicate we are at risk of slipping into runaway global warming.

    “What’s important about these numbers is that, in theory, we can control deforestation and land use change [and] we can control our fossil fuel emissions — but once permafrost starts to thaw, we cannot control how much carbon dioxide and methane is released by microbes into the atmosphere from thawing permafrost,” Natali says.”

    http://www.pri.org/stories/2015-06-24/thawing-permafrost-could-have-catastrophic-consequences-scientists-warn

    Reply
  23. “Sue Natali, of the Woods Hole Research Center in Massachusetts and co-author of a paper recently published in Nature, told negotiators about the new data and says the numbers indicate we are at risk of slipping into runaway global warming.

    “What’s important about these numbers is that, in theory, we can control deforestation and land use change [and] we can control our fossil fuel emissions — but once permafrost starts to thaw, we cannot control how much carbon dioxide and methane is released by microbes into the atmosphere from thawing permafrost,” Natali says.”
    http://www.pri.org/stories/2015-06-24/thawing-permafrost-could-have-catastrophic-consequences-scientists-warn

    Reply
  24. Everyone please express your opinions about airborne fraction of Co2 in the atmosphere. Will it increase by 2050 or 2100 from 45%. Why current Co2 levels are relatively low (rise from last year? due to el nino?) Why Cryosphere Today is outdated? What about Greenland melting this season? Finally which year will be the 1st year with ice free arctic (2020,2025,2030)?

    Reply
    • Peak to peak is still in the range of near a 2 ppm annual increase. Average CO2 looks higher than 2 ppm overall. Wouldn’t call this ‘low.’ Airborne fraction would increase if the sinks start overloading, and that’s something we observe in deforestation, Arctic carbon response, and ocean CO2 increase/acidification, among other things.

      CT is having trouble updating. I hope they’re not having funding issues. They’re one of the only near real time source for sea ice area information.

      Greenland melt is up in the air this season. We have negative AMO which would tend to cool Greenland a bit on top of a ramping human heat forcing. Natural variability is pushing against the human forcing which would tend to moderate melt somewhat, but the strength of the human forcing has tended to over-ride in certain cases. Overall, it seems we are in a melt trough before the next peaks (2013, 2014, 2015 ?). One last thing to note is the tendency for high pressure formation over Greenland during recent days despite these larger trends, which would tend to wring more surface melt out of Greenland at this time of year.

      Barring massive negative feedbacks from major Greenland melt I think we tend to hit new record lows in sea ice every five years or so. We are about two new record lows away from a near ice free Arctic. So my opinion is that 2022 is a more likely date given current trends. Although any new major record melt year could do it as the sea ice state is still quite fragile in the Arctic and we are living in a context of rapidly warming winters for the Arctic Ocean (and year -round warming for the permafrost zone).

      Reply
  25. rustj2015

     /  June 24, 2015

    If people are interested:
    At this pivotal moment, we’re inviting you to join EDF’s Vice President for Health, Sarah Vogel, at 8 p.m. ET this Thursday (tomorrow) for an interactive webinar and Q&A session. Sarah will give an overview of our three-pronged approach to reducing our exposure to toxic chemicals by working with government, leading businesses, and research scientists.
    When: Thursday, June 25th, 8:00 pm – 9:00 pm ET
    Where: Your computer! Register online to receive login information.
    https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/EventLobbyServlet?target=reg20.jsp&partnerref=EDAN-Activist&eventid=1015422&sessionid=1&key=2CB59727993811F6F76C833EB064E1F9&sourcepage=register

    Reply
  26. – PNW PDX BUMBLE BEES DYING.
    Neonicotinoids are the traditional chemical agent used in the USA.
    I alerted out Xecres Society. #BOYCOTT PORTLAND and all pollinator killing cities.

    Reply
    • #Bumble #Bees foraging on freshly fallen nectar laden flower litter. #Portland OR #USA – 1 foraging & 1 dead bee.

      Reply
      • Very sad images, dt. The man-made challenges we are burdening nature with are heart breaking and tragic. We destroy these beautiful creatures at our own peril.

        Reply
  27. – ClimateReanalyzer ocean temp anomalies – 0624. Hot NE Pac up into Bering etc.

    Reply
  28. Brian

     /  June 25, 2015

    Major warnings on all news channels about the heat wave about to hit British Columbia this weekend with temperatures nearing the low 40’s C in the Okanagan Valley and West Kootenay regions. As someone who has been following the extreme warmth in the East Pacific all year, you had the feeling that 2015 was going to be a game-changer in terms of public perception of what climate change really means. Even back in January and February I felt this year was going to be more extreme for our region than anything before, but now that it is here, I must admit feeling a certain sense of dread about the summer to come in terms of what it means for our forests and wildlife.

    I have been watching the climate change here in the north for my whole life – that people can continue to deny what is happening just blows my mind but I suppose the vested interests who promote this ideology and their misled followers will push this agenda to the very end…..sad.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: