(Widespread rain and thunderstorm activity visible in the August 3 LANCE-MODIS satellite shot of a region that has seen millions impacted by epic flooding occurring from July 30th through today. Image source: LANCE MODIS.)
August 3, 2015: A massive moisture blow off the world’s record hot oceans had to go somewhere. And, over the past few days, the tally has been extraordinary.
A weak but heavily moisture-laden tropical cyclone Komen slammed into the coast of Bangladesh on Thursday, July 30th. Since that time, the system has lingered over the region — dumping between 11 (286 mm) and 47 inches of rainfall (nearly 1200 mm) over that low-lying country, over Myanmar and over India. For sections of Myanmar that’s twice the rainfall amount the country typically sees in all of July but concentrated into a period of a just a few days. To many, the inundation came suddenly and without warning. According to an AP interview:
“There was no warning … we thought it was normal [seasonal flooding],” said Aye Myat Su, 30, from a monastery being used as a temporary shelter in the regional capital of Kalay. “But within a few hours, the whole house was under water. My husband had to get onto the roof as there was no way out.”
Aye Myat Su’s experience is not unique. For millions of people throughout a broad region have seen serious and devastating flood impacts. Due to the massive inundation, a huge swath of Myanmar is under water. There, more than 200,000 people there are thought to have been displaced or inundated by the floods. In the mountainous state of Hakha alone, landslides have destroyed over 700 homes. All across the country, however, the wreckage has been extraordinary with more than 17,000 homes thought to have been destroyed as of Monday morning.
In the Bengal region of India more 10,000 villages have been impacted resulting in the displacement of 214,000 persons with more than 30,000 huddled in government disaster shelters. So far, 121 souls are reported to have lost their lives in the region. A death toll that is, sadly, likely to continue to climb. Debris and flood waters have also washed out hundreds of bridges, floated telephone poles out of the ground, destroyed public buildings and blocked many major roadways.
Due to what is a massive disruption of infrastructure — including widespread power outages — reports from some of the more heavily flooded regions remain sparse.
(Reports of damage, dislocation and loss of life mount after one of the worst floods in 200 years strikes Southeast Asia)
Government officials are scrambling to set up aid and relief flows to those displaced or who’ve seen their homes wiped out by the flooding. Myanmar’s president has declared a state of emergency and stated that his country would do its ‘utmost’ for flood victims of that stricken nation. But local officials have voiced doubts about towns’ and villages’ ability to recover without substantial outside assistance.
It’s a severe deluge that has covered a huge section of Southeast Asia and impacted the lives of millions. And for some regions, relief may come later rather than sooner. The moisture Komen delivered remains in place atop a seasonal monsoonal flow that will only provide more energy for storms. Heavy rains are thus expected to linger over many of the flooded regions in the coming days as powerful thunderstorms continue to develop in train or drift eastward over Thailand and Vietnam.
Links:
Floods, Landslide in Myanmar, Bangladesh Leave Dozens Dead
Death Toll Rises as Myanmar Faces Flood Emergency
Hat Tip to Leland Palmer
climatehawk1
/ August 3, 2015Tweet scheduled.
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labmonkey2
/ August 3, 2015I wonder if this is a prelude to the El Nino impact on CA, and if the volumes/duration will be similar due to the heat load of ‘the blob,’ among other indicators?
Images from the region are just devastating.
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robertscribbler
/ August 3, 2015Good question. ECMWF model is showing some extremely severe El Nino atmospheric feedbacks starting this month.
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Anthony Colombo
/ August 3, 2015As far as El Nino, NOAA’s Weekly ENSO Update hot of the presses.”In the last week, westerly wind anomalies have strengthened west of the Date Line.”
I wonder if the 8 earliest forecast members being above the mean is because they picked up on the recent westerly wind anomalies?
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Anthony Colombo
/ August 3, 2015Oh this did not embed in the above comment –
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Anthony Colombo
/ August 3, 2015ok i won’t embed see ENSO ensembles corrected here: http://dreamspace.is/ElNinoPredictions.png
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Loni
/ August 4, 2015A large El Nino is going to be dumping rain on some newly charred hillsides, here in NorCal. If it is anything close to what those poor souls are weathering, it’s gonna be a mess.
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dtlange
/ August 3, 2015“Hothouse rains” is right.
A huge ocean to atmosphere to Earth, super-pump propelled by FF combustion.
– Meanwhile in Florida:
‘Historic rainfall overtaxes Tampa’s wastewater system’
Tampa Tribune 0802
TAMPA — As flood waters caused by record-breaking rainfall receded Sunday, officials worried that Tampa’s overtaxed wastewater system may take days to recover.
And with more rain expected early this week, wastewater may once again bubble over onto the city’s streets as it did Saturday and early Sunday because pumping stations couldn’t keep up with demand.
“No system could have accommodated this amount of rainfall,” Tampa’s Mayor Bob Buckhorn said at the entrance to the Homes of Regency Cove community, where a busted culvert led to flooding on Gandy Boulevard and the temporary closure of the Gandy Bridge…
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robertscribbler
/ August 3, 2015If the long term models are right, then FL and the SE to Mid-Atlantic get hit pretty amazingly hard this winter as well. Lots of storms showing up through the coming months.
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dtlange
/ August 3, 2015-Yes, and here’s a telling quote from the article:
‘He told me it flooded one other time with the hurricanes (of 2004), but he’s never seen it like this,”
– No hurricane needed for this episode.
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dtlange
/ August 3, 2015And Tampa is on the Gulf coast weather track.
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Ed-M
/ August 3, 2015Meanwhile, in New Orleans we’re like sitting ducks in advance of the next AGW-enhanced event, be it a supersaturated thunderstorm, a weak cyclone that just inundated those three countries, or a powerful hurricane that will make Katrina seem like a summer shower at the beach. At least our levees were built to withstand a hundred years’ storm — unfortunately the storm is from the *wrong* hundred years. 😦
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robertscribbler
/ August 3, 2015They don’t have a building code for what’s coming down the pipe…
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Ed-M
/ August 3, 2015….like the one that just….
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dtlange
/ August 3, 2015Photo caption;
Flooding from heavy rains caused the road to collapse off Gandy Boulevard at Regency Cove. LANCE ROTHSTEIN / STAFF
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dtlange
/ August 3, 2015More atmospheric super-pump activity:
Super Typhoon Soudelor close to becoming strongest storm on Earth this year
Mashable
Super Typhoon Soudelor has rapidly intensified in the Northwest Pacific, with sustained winds of 150 miles per hour, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The storm is predicted to continue intensifying, potentially peaking at a 170-mile-per-hour monster, before slowly weakening as it approaches Taiwan and China by the end of the week. If the storm peaks at that intensity, it would become the strongest tropical cyclone on Earth so far this calendar year, beating 165-mile-per-hour Cyclone Pam.
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labmonkey2
/ August 4, 2015Well, it’s official now…strongest of the year (so far, anyway).
http://www.weather.com/storms/typhoon/news/typhoon-soudelor-forecast-west-pacific-taiwan-japan
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robertscribbler
/ August 4, 2015Bombing out in a big way…
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dtlange
/ August 3, 2015– I’m constantly astounded at how many resources we throw at problems after a crisis ramps up.
– Prevention?
– My strongest sympathies lay with the incinerated plants, insects, and wildlife.
– They are now part of the ash soot now falling on our heads.
California wildfires destroy forests and threaten homes
AP via The Guardian 0803
More than 9,000 firefighters work to quell blazes sparked by lightning and exacerbated by tinder-dry trees and grass and erratic winds
An air tanker drops fire retardant along a ridge to help contain the Rocky fire near Clearlake, California on Sunday. Photograph: Josh Edelson/AFP/Getty Images
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dtlange
/ August 3, 2015LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 3, 2015UNAUTHORIZED (jpg)
Bummer, Never has this happen before:
Story link:
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/03/california-wildfires-destroy-forests-threaten-homes#img-2
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dtlange
/ August 3, 2015From the Stars and Stripes Pacific Storm Tracker (archives in box at right):
5:45 p.m. Monday, Aug. 3, Japan time: Soudelor continues moving northwest away from the Marianas, on a course taking it slightly closer to Okinawa than previously forecast. A near-direct hit on Taipei is also possible in the long term, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
At 3 p.m., Soudelor was about 1,130 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, headed northwest at 15 mph, packing maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. Typhoon-force winds extend 30 miles from Soudelor’s center, while tropical storm-force winds extend 125 miles north of center and 100 miles south, according to the National Weather Service on Guam.
JTWC projects Soudelor to peak at 155-mph sustained winds and 190-mph gusts at midafternoon Wednesday, making it the fifth Category 5-equivalent super typhoon of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season…
http://www.stripes.com/blogs/pacific-storm-tracker/pacific-storm-tracker-1.257110/typhoon-13w-soudelor-15-1.360224
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humortra
/ August 3, 2015The toxic algae blooms in the Pacific Ocean stretching from southern California to Alaska — already the largest ever recorded — appear to have reached as far as the Aleutian Islands, scientists say.
“The anecdotal evidence suggests we’re having a major event,” said Bruce Wright, a scientist with the Aleutian Pribilof Island Association, the federally recognized tribal organization of Alaska’s native Aleuts. “All the populations [of marine mammals] are way down in the Aleutians.”
http://socan.info/2015/08/scientists-fear-toxic-algae-bloom-spreading-on-pacific-coast/
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dtlange
/ August 3, 2015– A piece dated July, 17: Has this been covered here? I may have missed it.
– As one who has been alarmed from watching sky anomalies for years, I find this fascinating.
I could see the sky changes from particulate and moisture buildup from FF and vehicle traffic, etc.
Marine plankton brighten clouds over Southern Ocean
washington.edu/news/2015
Nobody knows what our skies looked like before fossil fuel burning began; today, about half the cloud droplets in Northern Hemisphere skies formed around particles of pollution. Cloudy skies help regulate our planet’s climate and yet the answers to many fundamental questions about cloud formation remain hazy.
New research led by the University of Washington and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory suggest tiny ocean life in vast stretches of the Southern Ocean play a significant role in generating brighter clouds overhead. The results were published July 17 in the online, open-access journal Science Advances.
The study shows that plankton, the tiny drifting organisms in the sea, produce airborne gases and organic matter to seed cloud droplets, which lead to brighter clouds that reflect more sunlight.
“The clouds over the Southern Ocean reflect significantly more sunlight in the summertime than they would without these huge plankton blooms,”
http://www.washington.edu/news/2015/07/17/marine-plankton-brighten-clouds-over-southern-ocean/
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Andy in SD
/ August 3, 2015These rains may be followed by reduced rainfall as El Nino takes hold. That is just plain crappy.
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robertscribbler
/ August 3, 2015They’ve gone from drought to flood in many of these regions. It may be back to drought soon.
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Andy in SD
/ August 3, 2015Algae bloom in Barents is growing as well.
http://www.arctic.io/explorer/8/2015-07-29/6-N68.70709-E38.04034
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robertscribbler
/ August 3, 2015It’s starting to look rather wicked.
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James Burton
/ August 3, 2015The opposite effect is killing the Aral Sea in Central Asia. The Soviet plan for cotton cultivation diverted the rivers into this vast inland sea, and drought and green house heat is fast finishing the job. This sea once provided fish to a significant portion of the Soviet Fish Markets. Today fishing is a memory. The people left behind have noted one other weather phenomenon, the summers are hotter, the winters are colder. People who lived along the sea were used to the moderating effect of the sea, cooling hot summer days, and once warmed up by summer suns, provided heat released to the cold winter airs. A sort of climate control mechanism making living much easier around the sea.
People have noted the sea is now racing towards extinction at an accelerated rate, due to intractable heat and drought.
Man’s schemes for short term profit are proving our undoing. Global warming is just the largest example of this.
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dtlange
/ August 3, 2015– Thoughts on California’s explosive wildfires.
– CA wildfires With unusual dry and hot nighttime temps fires burn at an explosive rate.
In its 0803 report, The Weather Channel noted these “unusual” night time conditions.
Overnight, the Rocky Fire doubled in size.
The usual nighttime cool down, and higher humidity, was replaces by hot dry conditions.
This suggests to me that this could be caused by the lack of area, or regional, temperature gradients and differentials.
The lack of snowpack and glacier ice can no longer provide their usual cold part of the gradient.
Regional land masses are remain hot as ocean temps warm — which keeps the warm end of the differential in a warm/warm limbo weather balance.
The degraded wind, cool water vs warm land due CC polar ice jet stream malfunction, etc.
Little onshore flow?
So many dynamics are in flux.
###
CalFire
VIDEO: Calfire Report Shows Footage of “Massive” 47,000-Acre Rocky Fire
Today’s Calfire Fire Situation Report shows towers of smoke billowing from the 47,000-acre Rocky Fire near Clearlake.
Calfire Chief of Public Information Daniel Berlant said in today’s report that drought conditions caused the fire to spread at an unprecedented rate yesterday afternoon.
“The fire burned at an explosive rate,” Berlant said. “Within a five hour period, it consumed 20,000 acres. That’s a historic, unprecedented amount of acreage burned in such a short amount of time.”
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Colorado Bob
/ August 3, 2015The Sunset of Antarctica’s Ice Shelves: A Conversation With NASA’s Ala Khazendar
A team led by Ala Khazendar at NASA JPL was responsible for the study. Dr. Khazendar focuses on combining satellite observations and additional data to model Antarctic ice shelves and their possible future behavior. One goal of his work is to quantify Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise.
As Dr. Khazendar discusses in our conversation, while he does his best to maintain a scientist’s detachment through the rigor of his work, he nonetheless acknowledges that the impact of his findings are “staggering.”
Link
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robertscribbler
/ August 4, 2015We’re losing enormous ice forms that have been with us for millennia. And yet this is still the early stuff. Meanwhile, people like Jeb Bush are complaining that people like us ridicule climate change deniers. In my view, we couldn’t ridicule them enough. And that includes Jeb who apparently is doing the best he can to become a clone of his brother.
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Abel Adamski
/ August 4, 2015Robert, what ridicule the mushroom farmers and their crop. ?
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robertscribbler
/ August 4, 2015And the sea ice rebound is gone … http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1_CY.png
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robertscribbler
/ August 4, 20157.5 foot waves in the Chukchi Sea at this time as well.
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robertscribbler
/ August 4, 20158-10 foot waves forecast for Thursday and Friday. Looking pretty bad for the ice.
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Syd Bridges
/ August 4, 2015Robert, congratulations for keeping on top of these almost daily climate disasters. I consider this site to be a “must read.”
Once again it is some of the poorest who are paying the price for the indulgence of the rich. But even if one were to add 3 zeros to the displaced figure, would a single Fox News viewer care? Or even be aware of the event? As Neville Chamberlain so notoriously said, “a faraway country about which we know nothing.” Now it’s escalated to “a faraway continent about which we know nothing.” If this goes on, we may soon hear a second phrase on the Republican clown bus. When asked about a huge GHG induced disaster, say in Uzbekistan, they’ll all plead ignorance saying, :I’m not a geographer, so I can’t say anything about Ozbakitania, though I sure know it aint in Texas!”
The heat is ramping up as never before , this year. I guess that Supertyphoon Soudelor will keep the WWBs going in the Pacific driving the next Kelvin wave eastwards. I think the Pacific is vomiting up the carcass of the “Hiatus” rather quickly and that carcass looks and smells as putrid and vile as the deluded and bribed deniers who created it.
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robertscribbler
/ August 4, 2015I think it’s a pretty easy answer — when Fox is basically out there demonizing homeless people right now. The network is basically selling hatred and fear of the disadvantaged and poor. They’d probably do the same with the victims of climate change if they could learn how to speak the word. The aim, at this point, is reducing Fox News viewers. Considering how terrible they are, ridicule and shaming is an excellent solution.
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Mark from New England
/ August 4, 2015A bumper sticker I saw: “Fox News: Rich People telling middle-class people to blame poor people for all the nation’s ills.”
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Abel Adamski
/ August 4, 2015With respect I consider The Murdoch Media empire and so may other right and ultra right wing media organisations to be nothing but mushroom farms, yet people put their intellect and reasoning capabilities in those farms or factories to be treated like mushrooms
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robertscribbler
/ August 4, 2015Aptly described.
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Mark from New England
/ August 4, 2015Keep them in the dark and feed them shit 😉
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Syd Bridges
/ August 4, 2015I fail to see any substantive difference between Rupert Murdoch and Julius Striecher, whose vicious anti-Semitism helped pave the way for the Jewish Boycott, Kristallnacht, and the Holocaust. In 1946, the world still had the moral courage to denounce him and punish him for crimes against Peace and crimes against Humanity.. I am certain that Murdoch’s lies and demonizations will contribute to an even worse legacy than that of Striecher.
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robertscribbler
/ August 4, 2015And you can add Murdoch to a long list of like-minded villains. Their legacy of exploitation, denial, division and outright hatred will keep hurting us for years and decades to come.
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Ed-M
/ August 4, 2015One gets to wonder if the aim of Murdoch et al is to get rid of the poor and disadvantaged both locally and globally, and set the middle classes against each other so that when BAU finally collapses, everyone will be fighting like starving rats.
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climatehawk1 (@climatehawk1)
/ August 4, 2015I think Murdoch, the Kochs, and the rest are just reacting in a habitual way, and don’t yet understand the magnitude of what we are speeding toward. MHO.
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robertscribbler
/ August 4, 2015Considering their other deleterious impacts, I doubt it. I think it’s cynical gamesmanship on their part. Nothing innocent about it.
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climatehawk1 (@climatehawk1)
/ August 4, 2015Not suggesting innocent at all.
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Andy in SD
/ August 4, 2015What constitutes news is unrecognizable as information. It is click bait and gossip tailored to generate ad revenue in it’s best form. What you describe such as fox et al, is an opinion piece all dressed up as neutral information.
Hungarian saying from the 1960’s (under Communism). “He who owns the news, owns the people”.
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robertscribbler
/ August 4, 2015Authoritarianism has many forms, but it always seems to talk with the same tone of voice.
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Ed-M
/ August 4, 2015“but I know it ain’t Texas!”
And that’s the gist of it. That’s their attitude for California, too. And they really are asking for it: Mega-hurricane Pam to come barging out of the Atlantic, wipe out South Florida, then head to the Gulf Coast and take out Houston (where a lot of the USA oil refineries are). Maybe Port Fourchon, LA (where 20% of the oil that we in the USA consume passes through) for lagniappe. 😡
Of course I wouldn’t wish this on the residents and visitors of those three areas… 😮
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rustj2015
/ August 4, 2015Another shuddering becoming louder, massive irreversible change:
Glaciers melt faster than ever
Glacier decline in the first decade of the 21st century has reached a historical record, since the onset of direct observations. Glacier melt is a global phenomenon and will continue even without further climate change. This is shown in the latest study by the World Glacier Monitoring Service under the lead of the University of Zurich, Switzerland.
http://www.mediadesk.uzh.ch/articles/2015/gletscher-verlieren-mehr-eis-als-je-zuvor_en.html
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robertscribbler
/ August 4, 2015It’s brutal Rust, just brutal. Reading The Water Knife right now. That could very easily be part of our future.
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Ryan in New England
/ August 4, 2015How is The Water Knife, Robert? That’s one of the books on my “soon to read” list.
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robertscribbler
/ August 4, 2015It’s rather well done. I’m enjoying it. Stormdancer is also good cli-fi with a steam punk twist (a bit reminiscent of Luthiel too).
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Mark from New England
/ August 4, 2015A novel?
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Kate
/ August 4, 2015Thank you very much for your hard work Robert, it is really appreciated. Thanks also to the peoples comments it is fascinating reading everything that is going on around the world right now. Your the only site I have found who puts it all together on the whole world wide web, you and your work is so very very important! It is astonishing to me how everything on your site isn’t being reported on the news everywhere, or yelled out loud in panic if need be to wake the western world up from being drunk on fossil fuels fumes. I have been telling everyone I know to read your work. It is obvious everywhere we are on earth right now that we are all in great danger, and it is irresponsible not to be informed in my eyes. So thank you again for keeping us/me out of the dark and as much as possible you are explaining what comes next so we can do what ever we can to spread this scary reality without sounding confused or silly, if you know what mean? It is so important to understand how it all works, and what is happening thanks to your amazing efforts I can get a handle on this massive complicated mess we have unleashed. If I had some money right now I would give it to you, I do hope you are well looked after so you can do your great work without stress.
Kind Regards Kate*
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robertscribbler
/ August 4, 2015Kindest regards, Kate and thanks for recognizing the excellent work by our expert commentators too. There’s not much they miss. For my part, I promise to keep doing my best for you. Don’t sweat the other stuff. The focus is total effect and reduction of harm, not money.
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dtlange
/ August 4, 2015Kate: ‘ Your the only site I have found who puts it all together on the whole world wide web, you and your work is so very very important!’
Robert: ‘For my part, I promise to keep doing my best for you. Don’t sweat the other stuff. The focus is total effect and reduction of harm…’
– Very nicely put. A web of empathetic engagement — it (we) is. 🙂
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redskylite
/ August 4, 2015Media around the world are now accepting that a change is occurring and talking of a new normal, but how long does the new normal last for, before an even worse newer normal transpires ?
Today’s media in Kashmir and Canada – different culture, language and ethnicity same sentiments. . . . . . . . .
“There have been 11 cloudbursts in Kashmir during past few months. Now this unusual natural phenomena is becoming ‘normal.’ The frequency of freaky weather is increasing. Clearly, this is an indicator of climate change and has affected fragile eco-system here. People will be deeply impacted by it,”
http://jammu.greaterkashmir.com/news/kashmir/-climate-change-cause-of-freaky-weather-in-kashmir/193343.html
“This is the new normal,” said Thomas Pedersen, executive director of the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/climate-change-is-a-growing-concern-in-b-c-says-scientist-1.3177871
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dtlange
/ August 4, 2015“Media around the world are now accepting that a change is occurring…”
Be that as it may, until they use the terms ‘fossil fuel’, or ‘carbon’, tied to ‘climate change’ — they are missing the most crucial element of their ‘news’ effort.
From what I can gather from watching various news, or governmental public information screeds, is that the above terms off limits.
Much critical information of survival has been purposely excised from official and corporate lexicons.
THX, redskkylite.
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Syd Bridges
/ August 5, 2015You’re right, dt. In Orwell’s 1984, inconvenient facts went down the “memory hole,” and the public were educated to the new truth, which had always been the truth. “Oceania is at war with Eastasia, and it has ALWAYS been at war with Eastasia.” How much better to choke off the information BEFORE anyone knows it. Then there are no inconvenient facts for people to forget.
The majority of the mainstream media are corrupt and mendacious. The best that can be said about most of the rest is that they are totally spineless.
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Miep
/ August 6, 2015“It has always approached wet bulb limits here from time to time. Nothing to worry about.”
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Ed-M
/ August 6, 2015And they have this wonderful miracle-device that causes previously, commonly held information to disappaear down the memory hole as it’s displaced by new, contradictory information, especially here in the US. We’ve had it for seven, eight decades, now: it’s called a television set.
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Maria
/ August 4, 2015Some people cannot catch a break. One of my Monday night classmates runs a non-profit in Myanmar. He told us/reminded? that the worst of the flooding and where the most deaths are(so far) are in the state of Rhakine—-where it’s already a mess because of the interethnic fighting.
“The floods are hitting children and families who are already very vulnerable, including those living in camps in Rakhine state,” said Shalini Bahuguna, from the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF). There are 140,000 displaced children and families in Rakhine alone.
“Beyond the immediate impact, the floods will have a longer term impact on the livelihoods of these families,” she warned.
According to the Myanmar Government, 39 people have died and over 200,000 people across the country are in need of lifesaving assistance. Twelve out of Myanmar’s 14 states and regions have been affected by the rains. On 31 July, President U Thein Sein issued a statement declaring natural disaster zones in four regions, including Rakhine, where access is limited due to flooding, road blockages and landslides
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=51548#.VcA-houSOrc
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Loni
/ August 4, 2015Regional wars and weather wraith……..can upheaval be far behind?
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Maria
/ August 4, 2015Loni, Regional wars+weather wrath—>dynamite came to mind.
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Aaron Lewis
/ August 4, 2015It is frequently raining on the snow fields above the great glaciers that source the great rivers – you know the ones – the ones that were first reported to be likely to disappear in 2035, and then that was retracted as not based on “peer reviewed” sources.
Well, with the snowfields and glaciers getting rained on, year after year, the 2035 year might have been the most honest number in AR4.
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robertscribbler
/ August 4, 2015They’re looking pretty feeble in the satellite shot, Aaron. And we really, really do not like rain on glaciers.
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redskylite
/ August 4, 2015Media around the world are now accepting that a change is occurring and talking of a new, but how long does the new normal last for, before an even worse newer normal transpires ?
Today’s media in Kashmir and Canada – different culture, language and ethnicity same sentiments. . . . . . . . .
“There have been 11 cloudbursts in Kashmir during past few months. Now this unusual natural phenomena is becoming ‘normal.’ The frequency of freaky weather is increasing. Clearly, this is an indicator of climate change and has affected fragile eco-system here. People will be deeply impacted by it,”
http://jammu.greaterkashmir.com/news/kashmir/-climate-change-cause-of-freaky-weather-in-kashmir/193343.html
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redskylite
/ August 4, 2015and in Canada today . . .
This is the new normal,” said Thomas Pedersen, executive director of the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/climate-change-is-a-growing-concern-in-b-c-says-scientist-1.3177871
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Andy in SD
/ August 4, 2015Flash flood in China
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/08/04/world/asia/ap-as-china-flash-flood.html?_r=0
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Colorado Bob
/ August 4, 2015Another Category 5 Cyclone: Super Typhoon Soudelor
Super Typhoon Soudelor vaulted to Category 5 status on Monday, making it the planet’s sixth (at least–see below) Category 5 storm of the year. At 2:00 pm EDT Monday, Soudelor’s sustained winds were estimated at 180 mph, with the strength unchanged in the 8:00 pm EDT Monday update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). For the year thus far, Soudelor is Earth’s strongest tropical cyclone in terms of estimated wind speed. The Weather Channel’s Nick Wiltgen notes that Soudelor’s estimated central pressure of 900 mb is the lowest in a typhoon since last year’s Super Typhoon Vongfong, also 900 mb. Five prior Category 5 storms this year were described and illustrated in a May 19 post. They include Tropical Cyclone Eunice, Cyclone Pam, Super Typhoon Maysak, and Super Typhoon Noul. Update: Our initial survey of JTWC products showed that Cyclone Bansi fell short of Category 5 status. However, JTWC data for Cyclone Bansi archived by RAMMB-CIRA indicate that Bansi’s estimated winds peaked at 140 knots (about 160 mph) at 0000 GMT on January 13. If we include Bansi, then we’re now up to a startling seven Category 5 storms so far in 2015. This compares to a yearly average of 4.6 Category 5 storms for the period 1990-2014. It’s not out of the question we could break the record total of 12 Category 5 storms notched in 1997, when–much like this year–a strong El Niño was ramping up. Thanks to wunderground member 1900hurricane for bringing Bansi data to our attention.
Link
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Colorado Bob
/ August 4, 2015How Obama plans to beat his climate critics
Bracing for lawsuits, the EPA quietly added some bulletproofing to its final Clean Power Plan. An expert’s guide to the changes revealed today.
http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2015/08/how-obama-plans-to-beat-his-climate-critics-000186
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Matt
/ August 4, 2015From BOM today, “The 2015 El Niño is now well-established and continues to strengthen. In the coming weeks, the central tropical Pacific Ocean (the NINO3.4 region) may exceed the peak values reached during the 2002 and 2009 El Niño events, but current anomalies remain well short of the 1982 and 1997 peaks. Note that peak values are normally recorded late in the year.” also…. “All five NINO indices again exceeded +1 °C this week.”
I think that makes 12 consecutive weeks. It is quite hard to predict what is in store here in Aus as the Indian Ocean is also warm, and may help to offset our usual El Nino based droughts? The denier bandwagon is in full motion here as Hobart (Tasmania) just had snow, Monday our time (last time this happened was in 1986) with a possibility of more tomorrow, oh the prospect of the next ice age AAAARRRGGGHHHH, virtually no mention of the bushfire (wildfire) fighting efforts in the blue mountains, New South Wales in the middle of winter though. From the ABC website…. “Blue Mountains Mayor Mark Greenhill said he was concerned the fire season had started early, with the winter bushfire an ominous sign for the months ahead.
“Two weeks ago almost to the day we had snow on the ground where we are, and now we have a major bushfire event that’s been underway now for some days,” he said.
“It certainly is a concern. I guess it’s a message that we’ve got a summer ahead that requires attention.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-03/200-firefighters-tackling-suspicious-blue-mountains-blaze/6666854?section=nsw
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sunkensheep
/ August 4, 2015Wow, that’s quite intense fire considering the weather (16C, 40% RH)
Down here in SE vic, we’ve managed to pick up a few “significant rainfall events” to fill the gaps between dry months. If this El-Nino turns out anything like 1997, I expect a drought to start biting around September, with reduced spring season rainfall, and a dry summer. The forecast for a positive IOD event in the next few months lends more weight to this idea. The BOM’s seasonal forecast model disagrees, giving a high likelihood of dry conditions in Southern Victoria for August, but less so for September, October. It suggests 50/50 chance of wetter or dryer conditions for eastern NSW, and wetter than average for inland WA, agreeing with the “Indian Ocean is too warm” idea.
The cold, frosty winter at least, is already living up to that of 1997.
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Colorado Bob
/ August 4, 2015Canada’s tar sands landscape from the air – in pictures
A new book of aerial photographs, Beautiful Destruction, captures the awesome scale and devastating impact of Alberta’s oil sands with stunning colours, contrasts and patterns. The book also includes 15 essays by prominent individuals from environment and industry, sharing their insights, ideas and opinions. Photographs by Louis Helbig
Link
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Colorado Bob
/ August 4, 2015Japan’s meteorological agency said temperatures in central Tokyo hit 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday for a record-tying fourth consecutive day, as a high-pressure system remained aloft the archipelago.
If the mercury exceeds 35 degree Celsius on Tuesday as is forecast, it would be the first five straight days of what the agency calls ‘mousho,’ or intense heat, since they began recording the data.
According to the agency’s forecast, Tokyo is expected to see high temperatures until at least Thursday. There have been four years in the past in which the city saw four consecutive ‘mousho’ days, most recently in 2013.
The agency said in a report released on Monday that the average temperature in Tokyo in July was 26.2 degrees Celsius, which was 1.2 degrees higher than the average year. Temperatures began to rise in the middle of the month and remained extremely high, the report said.
Update: The temperature in Tokyo reached 35.1 degrees Celsius on Tuesday a little after 12:00 p.m., according to the meteorological agency.
http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2015/08/04/tokyo-heat-likely-to-set-record/
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Spike
/ August 4, 2015Mortality beginning to show up
http://sputniknews.com/asia/20150804/1025370514.html?utm_source=t.co%2FuuEnf85j4m&utm_medium=short_url&utm_content=7Jx&utm_campaign=URL_shortening
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Colorado Bob
/ August 4, 2015Sunday night hottest night in Israel’s history
Nocturnal heat records were broken in many areas of the country; Monday set a new record for power consumption.
Link
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Colorado Bob
/ August 4, 2015CBS news interviewed a firefighter at the Rocky fire in Calf.
It burnt over 20,000 acres in 5 hours during the night.
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Ed-M
/ August 4, 2015This morning it’s at 62,000 acres total.
http://www.kcra.com/california-wildfires/shift-in-weather-allows-crews-to-gain-ground-on-rocky-fire/34503942
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Maria
/ August 4, 2015It’s so sad. I was up in that vicinity several weeks ago. The brilliance of golden hills was almost blinding as the sun happened to be hitting them directly at that hour.
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dtlange
/ August 4, 2015– Just a pesky reminder that California was named the Golden State because of the Golden Poppies that once covered the hillsides — before invasives brought their coloration.
– esalen.org
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robertscribbler
/ August 4, 2015That’s one truly hellacious fire.
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Ed-M
/ August 4, 2015That’s almost a hundred square miles. Yipes! 😮
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dtlange
/ August 4, 2015– You bet, “It burnt over 20,000 acres in 5 hours during the night.”
Nighttime cool-downs with humidity just aren’t there because of the CC-RRR-Blob-jetstream–arctic ice symbiosis.
-The whole of the west coast, and many miles inland, have lost this very important cycle.
– Also, with glacier, ice field, and snow pack loss, quite a bit of terra firma has absorbed heat — which it will hold onto until…
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Andy in SD
/ August 4, 2015An interesting exercise would be to examine extreme weather during 87 to 97.
Then again from 99 to 2009. Plot by type & occurrence as well as total.
Afterwards, apply those deltas to our current metrics for extremes and plot an estimate from 2017 forward. Now whether it is increase by percentage or raw number would be an unknown but a rough trend (guesstimate) may be coaxed out.
This would be a pre / post large scale El Nino inspired temperature shift as it applies to climatic behavior. But then again, it may be utterly useless and a waste of time….
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Colorado Bob
/ August 4, 2015See The Media’s Disconnect On Climate Change And Extreme Weather Illustrated On The Front Page
Wildfire Reports Run Alongside Clean Power Plan Stories, But Don’t Mention Global Warming
Link
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Colorado Bob
/ August 4, 2015At least 180 dead, a million displaced in India floods
Kolkata – Floods from days of torrential rain have now claimed at least 180 lives in India with one million people sheltering in relief camps after fleeing surging waters, officials said on Tuesday.
Link
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Les Grady
/ August 5, 2015Somehow I have stopped receiving emails of your posts. Please add me back to your notification list.
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robertscribbler
/ August 5, 2015Hello Les. You may have to sign back in to notifications. Pretty sure I have no control over the email feed on my end.
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robertscribbler
/ August 5, 2015Hello Les. Just checked and you are still showing up on my email list for the blog (gradyles@youremail). There’s no other control I have other than making sure you’re on the list. Has anyone else had similar trouble?
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Miep
/ August 6, 2015I go to WordPress.com and click the gear by “following” and it gives me a list of all the blogs I follow and options for editing notification settings.
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