November-Type Gales Hit England in August — Looks Like a Weird Atmospheric Response to El Nino + Climate Change May Be Unfolding

Atmospheric ENSO INDEX

(Atmospheric El Nino Index by WSI shows a very strong atmospheric response is unfolding. But long range weather maps, long range NOAA forecast shows an atypical pattern for El Nino. Image source: WSI.)

They say that a picture can paint a thousand words. How about a graph that exceeds 100 El Ninos? It may not jump out at you at first, but that’s what we’re looking at above.

This graph, provided by Weather Channel Affiliate WSI (and based on atmospheric data collected by NOAA) represents intensity of atmospheric response patterns to El Nino. Typically, this means cloudiness at the Central Pacific Equator, the propagation of near equatorial westerlies, atmospheric wave propagation in the Jet Stream, and storm track amplification. In other words, teleconnections.

On the left side of the above graph, we see positive and negative numbers indicating standard deviation correlation to an ENSO neutral state. Push into 2 standard deviation range either high or low and you’re getting about a typical El Nino or La Nina response from the atmosphere. And ever since June we’ve been in the 3 standard deviation or about top 10 percent of El Nino response range.

That’s a pretty strong ocean to atmosphere signal. But it pales in comparison to what’s being predicted. Looking ahead, the Euro weather model then pushes us all the way up to a 4 standard deviation event (or top 1 percent of atmospheric response rates) by early-to-middle August. This is an extreme response to El Nino. One that could have some amazing impacts come Fall, or possibly sooner (see North Atlantic storm discussion below), especially when we take into account some of the added impacts of human caused climate change. Should such a response emerge, both the US Southeast and Gulf Coast could be in for some extremely severe storms.

Trough

(A rather deep trough for Summer-time swings down through the Eastern US. Image source: Climate Reanalyzer.)

For the US, such a strong atmospheric response to El Nino forcings would tend to indicate a powerful trough digging in through the Eastern half of the country, even during summertime. And while we do see a rather strong trough for this time of year setting up over and extending down from the Hudson Bay region of Canada, we do not see an overall suppression of summer-time heat and potential for greatly increased precipitation that would typically occur under such a pattern, as yet.

Instead and somewhat oddly, the pattern has kicked energy out over the ocean — fueling the North Atlantic storm track and powerful oceanic cold core cyclones at a time when such events should be rare. Yesterday, a gale hammered Scotland and Ireland, kicking up seas west of England into a frenzy of 30 foot swells. To say this event is odd for summertime is a bit of an understatement. Sans tropical storms swinging north, the higher Latitude regions of the Atlantic are typically calm this time of year.

Winter-Type North Atlantic Gales During Summer

But living in typical times we are not. Greenland melt is ramping up. And so we see the start of a Heinrich Event-like cool pool in the North Atlantic. Call it a baby Heinrich or a precursor or whatever you like. But it’s there. And it’s anomalously cool. And it’s going to influence the weather regardless of whether we like it or not. It’s an event related to both fresh water flow into the North Atlantic and an associated decline in the strength of the Gulf Stream. This odd summer North Atlantic storm generation is then, perhaps, due to a teleconnection between the strong atmospheric signal of El Nino and the underlying signal of human-forced climate change. Such a teleconnection would tend to shift the El Nino related trough a bit eastward and result in an amplified North Atlantic storm track. Which is exactly what we are seeing.

image

(It looked like a North Atlantic winter storm. But this screen capture of 30 foot swells due to a powerful gale off England was taken late last night [August 3rd]. For those familiar with typical summer patterns for the North Atlantic this should be a moment that inspires head-scratching. One with an uncanny similarity to patterns predicted in a recent paper by Dr. James Hansen. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

NOAA long range forecasts are also picking up the signal of powerful storm track intensification over the Gulf Coast and the Southeastern US. Such a prediction hints at a strong storm track running diagonally across the Atlantic from Florida to England and aligned with a trough edge running through that broader region. It’s a pattern that could put England in the firing line for severe winter storms yet again. For the US, the upshot is powerful storms slamming a region from Texas through the Carolinas from September through February. Florida, Coastal Georgia and the U.S. Gulf Coast are particularly hard-hit in the forecast. But we also shouldn’t rule out some strong bombs impacting the Mid-Atlantic region before they tear off across the ocean.

No Significant Drought Relief for California?

Sadly, the atmospheric response to El Nino is not pushing forecasts for a wet winter for the US West Coast. Monsoonal moisture hits the US Southwest during September and October, but barely touches California in the forecast. The moisture pattern then retreats eastward. Heat and dryness are particularly focused in the region of Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana. Abnormal warmth is also predicted to remain in place over Alaska.

NOAA November December January PrecipitationNOAA November December January Temperature

(NOAA long range forecast finds little drought relief for the US West Coast this winter even under the influence of a predicted powerful El Nino. Image source: NOAA CPC.)

This pattern appears to indicate that the NOAA models are calling for the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge and the hot Blob of water off the US West Coast to mostly remain in place. An overall very bad forecast considering El Nino’s predicted intensity and the currently indicated strength of atmospheric response. It may be that cooling in the North Atlantic associated with Greenland melt and Gulf Stream weakening is having such a powerful impact on the Jet Stream that El Nino cannot over-ride — instead solidifying the Pacific Ridge to Atlantic Trough fixed atmospheric wave and dumping its teleconnection influence into the firing range that the North Atlantic is steadily morphing into.

To this point, it’s worth noting that long range model forecasts of this kind can carry with them a rather high error bar. The ocean-atmosphere forcing of the predicted super El Nino will likely result in some rather dramatic wrenchings of the climate system. And for such an El Nino to fail to over-ride the West Coast block would have some very serious added impacts on down the line.

Links:

Weather Channel Affiliate WSI

Climate Reanalyzer

Warning From Scientists Stop Burning Fossil Fuels or Rapid Sea Level Rise, Age of Storms is Coming Soon

Earth Nullschool

NOAA CPC

(Please support publicly funded, non-special-interest based science, like the fantastic work provided by NOAA and NASA, without which this report and the reports provided by Climate Reanalyzer, Earth Nullschool, and WSI would not be possible.)

Leave a comment

99 Comments

  1. Awesome article. I’m taking my time with this one – spurring further research. Might I recommend that you link this article’s text “Heinrich Event” to your other article regarding Hansen et al.

    Reply
  2. Spike

     /  August 4, 2015

    Certainly been some big waves off SW England today, well seen on video here.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-33775958

    Reply
    • That is one hell of a swell for summer-time. Thanks for the vid, Spike.

      Reply
      • – Thanks for the detailed post showing E PAC & N Atlantic conditions and forecasts.
        We have whole new climate zones.

        As a West-Coast former surfer/sailor who spent many years (days & nights) in, on, or out on the water and at water’s edge — I’m still betting on the monolithic NE PAC Blob-Ridge to turn El Nino into El Wimpo.🙂 The whole PNW is fast becoming desert like.

        – ‘big waves off SW England ‘
        Google maps shows this location. Graphic and Interesting. Some parking lots with high thick seawalls are evident.
        https://www.google.com/maps/@51.2110887,-4.1135758,264m/data=!3m1!1e3

        Reply
        • Good thoughts, DT. I think us surfers tend to have a good feel for trends. We kinda have to develop them naturally.

  3. climatehawk1

     /  August 4, 2015

    Good read!: Why so many climate change deniers here (Woodward County, Oklahoma)? http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/03/opinions/sutter-climate-skeptics-woodward-oklahoma/index.html #globalwarming

    Reply
  4. wili

     /  August 4, 2015

    Ireland just had it’s coldest July in 22 years, and one of its wettest on record: http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/tourism-boom-was-a-rare-bright-spot-as-we-endured-coldest-july-in-22-years-31424961.html

    Reply
  5. Thanks one more time Robert, very enlightening!
    kind regards,
    Rob

    Reply
  6. Dan B

     /  August 4, 2015

    The amount of methane being leaked from natural gas production sites has been hugely underestimated, according to a “bombshell” new study released on Tuesday.
    http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/08/04/bombshell-study-reveals-methane-emissions-hugely-underestimated This is not new to most readers of this blog but it appears we’re likely to get some clear hard data soon.

    Reply
  7. “For the second consecutive day, residents in an area of northwestern Ohio that included the state’s fourth-largest city, Toledo, are being told that their tap water is not safe for cooking or drinking.”
    “The current situation marks the second time in two years that algae blooms have led to a drinking-water ban along Lake Erie. USA Today reports that a northwest Ohio township told its 2,000 residents not to drink the water last year. “That was believed to be the first time a city has banned residents from using the water because of toxins from algae in the lake,” ”

    http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/USA-Update/2014/0803/Behind-Ohio-drinking-water-ban-a-Lake-Erie-mystery-video

    Reply
    • The hot Blob, the North Atlantic bloom, and Lake Eerie algae. Fossil fuel burning + run-off + warming is a terrible combination for the world’s waters — fresh and salty.

      Reply
  8. “powerful storms slamming a region from Texas to the Carolinas from September through February.”

    You mean to tell me that we here in New Orleans might have to evacuate for a Nor’easter!??

    (For better effect pronounce the last word the way a Bostonian would.😉 )

    Reply
    • Not likely. More just Gulf Coast T boomers. The East Coast, however, including FL. Now that could be quite severe.

      Reply
      • Abel Adamski

         /  August 6, 2015

        Now where are Trumps Real Estate Holdings?

        Reply
        • I said just T boomers. Might not want to look at it that way. Those thing could really be beasts given the implied energy in that trough. Think hail, tornadoes, train echoing floods, dangerous straight line winds and all rushing toward the bombs in the east.

        • As for Trump. I’d be more concerned about climate if I were him. He holds a lot of apples that could well start falling off the cart.

  9. Thanks Robert for another excellent post. Re: this year’s El Niño, does it mean(if these long range forecasts are indeed true) that CA/PNW will have another dry year? Or will average, non-Niño year rainfalls prevail?

    Reply
    • California looks average in the NOAA prediction. PNW looks drier than normal. This outlook is preliminary to say the least. But a normal rainfall year for California is nowhere near enough to knock out the drought. PNW looks like it gets a bit worse.

      Reply
      • Thanks Robert. At this point, the state will take what it can get. ;-( I’m a native of the Northeast and have lived/visited in the SF area on and off for a long time…..This is my first full calendar year in about decade. All I can say is, yikes–in polite company, that is.

        Reply
        • Pretty amazingly dry, right? If what should probably be a wet year is just average …

          Part of what may be the problem is, ironically, that Greenland supports trough development in the east through the mechanism of glacial melt and related North Atlantic cooling. Sea ice melt on the Pacific side supports ridge development in that region. These kinds of shifts are the very definition of climate change. The whole pattern is tending toward a new climate state.

  10. Here’s a paper by Jason Box that, it seems to me, supports Dr. Hansen’s paper and your take on it.

    COPENHAGEN — For me it was only after eight years of studying Greenland — installing and maintaining a network of on-ice climate stations and examining how much snow evaporates from the island — that I suddenly realized glaciology textbooks needed a major revision. This was 2002. Prior to the epiphany, conventional knowledge held that the ice sheet was frozen at its bed and so the reaction time of the ice sheet to climate warming was measured in tens of thousands of years. A heck of a long time.

    Climate warming had just infiltrated Greenland glaciology in earnest. Summer melt water, it turned out, drains down quickly to the bed, lubricating the glacier’s flow. Suddenly we realized an expanding melt season meant the ice sheet would be sliding faster, longer. It was not to be the only time our philosophy got hit with a major surprise that connected the ice sheet with climate change and the threat of abrupt sea level rise.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jason-e-box/ice-melt-fast_b_7927186.html

    Reply
    • Some of the science is starting to catch up. Institutionalized knowledge can take a while to adjust, though.

      Reply
      • Robert, I’m coming to realize that we get next century’s news right here. Not too dissimilar from medicine. It takes quite a while(from lab to clinic) for official guidelines of most treatments to become integrated into practice. Thanks again for all the work you do to keep us pro-dated.🙂

        Reply
        • 😉 You’re a sweetheart, Maria. Thanks for the kind words. In my opinion, much of the mainstream news is either backward or woefully behind. There’s a lot of good folks out there on the net, though. It’s a thin, ghostly, line.

  11. Colorado Bob

     /  August 4, 2015

    Hell freezes over ………….

    Eagles- Get Over It

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  August 4, 2015

      I’m speaking to Mike Huckabee not you folks.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  August 4, 2015

        Mike Huckabee pulled the volcano out of his ass. “Every volcano releases more Co2 than man has ever done.”

        Reply
  12. Colorado Bob

     /  August 4, 2015

    I’m so mad I can’t see past my nose.

    Reply
  13. Colorado Bob

     /  August 4, 2015

    This clown bus is our special project . Each and everyone of us.

    When they lie , we fry . Right into the grease,

    Reply
  14. Colorado Bob

     /  August 4, 2015

    When they lie , we fry .

    When they lie, we come after them , hammer and tongs. all of us. In mass. with facts. ……..

    Mark A Rubio , said, ” A single mother can’t afford a $30 dollar increase in her electric bill”.

    The same day poor people had to flee their homes because of epic flooding in Tampa.

    Get my point ?

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  August 4, 2015

      Mark A Rubio , said, ” A single mother can’t afford a $30 dollar increase in her electric bill”.

      Miami is spending 400 to 500 Million dollars just to pump the current sea level rise, out of the streets/ How much is that a “single mother’s” share ?

      See ?

      We all know this stuff, they think we are stupid. We go after them one by one , Then we all spread each fact sheet one at a time, To every link.

      Just like the deniers.

      Reply
    • These guys are such pricks, the way they frame the discussion. It’s basically a position built on a statement that is false and then filled in with a hundred false assumptions. First, the electricity bills won’t go up. Why? Renewable energy is less expensive than fossil fuels. This isn’t about electric bills staying low for grandma. This is about these wind bags keeping prices high enough to keep their polluting, creaky infrastructure going for their smokestack constituents and squeezing out captive consumer profits for as many decades as possible. Once the renewable energy genie gets out of the bottle it’s endlessly falling power prices for everyone. And that’s not something you can build an exploitative monopolistic energy system upon. These guys, they’ve got an allergic reaction to any kind of human progress that benefits anybody other than members of the board…

      Reply
  15. Loni

     /  August 4, 2015

    Robert…….this is coming from a long time fan and not so casual observer, but your work load has increased and will probably look like a ‘hockey stick’ if put on a graph for what’s coming. I suggest you show somewhere the names/faces of those who are supporters of this site, in hopes of inspiring others to join in the cause.
    This has to take an inordinate amount of your time, and that is only going to be more so in the future…….maybe not to distant future.

    Another great post, Robert, but I wish you could do something for California and the three ‘R’s, (and I don’t mean readin’, ritin’ an’ rithmetic.)

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  August 4, 2015

      ‘ I suggest you show somewhere the names/faces of those who are supporters of this site, in hopes of inspiring others to join in the cause.’

      Bad move girl . We love being floating helpers. each post we make, fills in a little more. That’s the charm of the site. People all over the Earth post here now. Why ? Because they don’t have to be my friend for life.
      And you grow to know them one link at a time.

      Reply
    • bill shockley

       /  August 6, 2015

      Robert…….this is coming from a long time fan and not so casual observer, but your work load has increased and will probably look like a ‘hockey stick’ if put on a graph for what’s coming

      Funny you should mention… I was just working on these metrics. It may seem like Robert is posting more but he’s been quite steady the last couple of years. He was more active in the first year-and-a-half of the blog.



      If it’s not clear from the title, “unique commenters per month” counts the number of unique commenters for each individual month.

      The community is strong, broad and growing. Hats off and thanks to Robert for, ostensibly, one of the most popular climate change blogs, and IMO, deservedly so, for the unique, accurate and balanced coverage he brings, and the way in which his avid and articulate commenting community augments and expands what is covered in the articles.

      Reply
      • Wow, Bill. Thanks for the research metrics. Didn’t anticipate that this blog would become the subject of such a scientific analysis😉

        What we have here is an excellent collaborative effort. The forum is wide open for event tracking, expert and layman comments, voicing individual concerns, and discussion.

        The pace of posts does ebb and flow based on how much research and effort in comments I’m putting in. The posts that include forecasting, which have been more typical recently, take up a bit more time.

        I think there’s this notion that I might take on more of an editorial role. But I have no plans for that. My talent is for direct writing, research, event tracking and meme generation. I can’t really do that if my focus is editorial.

        Reply
      • That said, some day I’d like to work on expanding and taking on another writer or two. But that would require more in the way of resources as well as a change in format. I’d say we’re some time out from hitting those marks. When that happens the trick will be managing it so that my focus remains on writing and community building.

        Reply
      • bill shockley

         /  August 6, 2015

        Wow, Bill. Thanks for the research metrics. Didn’t anticipate that this blog would become the subject of such a scientific analysis

        It’s very anal and obsessive. Lack of control. LOL Basically, I have the entire blog in a database, and the analysis is just a few queries, their output loaded into excel, and charted. Primary use of the database is for searching comments and posts for info — functionality that you, as the author, have at your end through the wordpress interface.

        I think there’s this notion that I might take on more of an editorial role.

        Editorial in what sense?

        Reply
        • Meaning that I manage other writers in addition to my usual duties. I’ll be honest. I don’t have a love affair with that I kind of work. My talent and joy are more to the direct work of writing itself.

      • bill shockley

         /  August 6, 2015

        I’m sure you’ll find the right path. I think you manage a fine and growing contingent of writers as it is! Always been a fan of your comment section. More than on other blogs.

        Reply
        • Those who comment here produce fabulous contributions. And I’m more than happy to encourage them. There’s so much arguing over climate change denial issues. I’m more than glad to provide a forum for those who actually want to think, analyze, and present their own informed opinions on climate change and related issues. In my view, this is how we grow in our understanding. By allowing each other to contribute and by allowing ourselves to hear what others have to say on the matter.

      • bill shockley

         /  August 6, 2015

        Managing the deniers is basic maintenance, but beyond that, there’s something on your blog that’s different. I think it has to do with the emphasis on reporting weather events from around the world. I think that is your unique interest and expertise, and that’s the type of commenter you’ve attracted. And because of that there’s an emphasis on empathy and feeling for nature. Kind of like what you see among ecologists. People speaking from their hearts. Of course, you’re going to find that everywhere but it’s closer to the main theme here. Or, maybe it’s just a more intimate group?

        Reply
        • It’s tough to nail down the intangibles, Bill. For my own part, I see beauty in the ebb and flow of the weather and awesome power in the the shape of our changing climate. I find that respect for the power of nature and a love for nature and the natural world itself tend to go hand in hand. The closer we stand to those mighty forces, the more the individual evaporates. The more we realize that we’re all a part of something so much larger. There’s a beauty in that if we choose to see it. And it’s a beauty that hearkens to our deep responsibilities as a people with the capacity to make these kinds of connections.

  16. Colorado Bob

     /  August 4, 2015

    Bob Marley – Get Up Stand Up [HQ Sound]

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  August 4, 2015

      Get up, stand up, don’t give up the fight.

      Reply
      • Robert in New Orleans

         /  August 5, 2015

        Colorado Bob, I always knew that you were a Rastafarian!😉

        Reply
  17. Vic

     /  August 4, 2015

    Carbon pricing works and Tony Abbott’s policies have proved it.
    Here we have the latest data on Australia’s electricity generation. See what happens in June 2014 when the carbon price was removed.

    Another interesting aspect of this chart is that the recent downward trend in electricity demand appears to have come to an end. This is mainly attributed to the ongoing expansion of Queensland’s LNG export industry, where Asia’s preference for burning gas instead of coal is driving increased coal fired emissions in Australia. Its a mad, mad world.

    Reply
  18. Mblanc

     /  August 4, 2015

    The cool pool looks to have appeared in 2014, and is still going strong. The really worrying map is the temperature percentile one, shown alongside the temperature anomaly map here.

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201506

    Surely this is all a bit early though? I would have thought that Greenland melt wasn’t yet big enough to cause this (optimistic face).

    It’s all a bit alarming when your neighbourhood (the UK) turns into climate change central…

    Reply
    • It’s a cumulative effect of the ongoing trend. We’ll see more of this as time moves forward. We’re about 1/5 of the way to a full impact event equal to previous Heinrichs. That’s two melt doublings. So 2015-2035 is a transition period toward worsening storms. This is still the early, easy stuff. But we are on that slope. And considering we’ve never actually seen one of these things in the flesh, as it were, it’s probably going to be one hell of a ride. If things really get going due to the fact that we’ve pushed the system much harder than natural changes ever would, it could get real nasty.

      If this were a hurricane, we’d be just starting to taste the outer bands… And, yeah, sorry you’re in the neighborhood. My folks are too. Not fun staring down the barrel of this one.

      Reply
      • Mblanc

         /  August 6, 2015

        Thanks for the context.

        Two melt doublings could happen quite quickly, as you say, depending on how things go and I don’t suppose it would stop at that either.

        I feel better about it today, it’s just another grim possible/probable future.

        Fortunately, most of the family can ski!

        Reply
    • danabanana

       /  August 5, 2015

      We’re all on the frontline when it comes to AGW but granted that, for now, some more than others. There is no way out of this Earth and oxygen runs thin at just 6,000 meters above sea level.

      Reply
      • The primary problem is with water — too little or too much. Too fast or too slow or sometimes all at once. Water that eats your cities, water that abandons them, water that comes in deluges or that bursts out of glaciers unexpectedly. Water pumping up storms through the heat engine mechanism. Water going bad due to warming and eutrophication. An ocean full of eutrophication. There aren’t any places that I know of untouched by what happens to water under warming. The fires, the floods, the droughts, the hyper-hurricanes, the sea level rise, the nasty microbes that wake up and live in the water, the downfall of glaciers, and all the impacts that come from changing ice to water and water to vapor. Some have pointed to places like New Zealand or British Columbia or the Tibetan Plateau. All three will see fundamental alterations. And even if it comes up OK for one or two of these places, the result is that they essentially become islands isolated from the rest of the world. Historically, such places tend to lack resiliency due to their isolation under an ongoing state of change. In other words, what are the billions of people of the world going to do about the, perhaps, one or two more livable places left under BAU emissions. At some point the crush of people attempting to flee to havens itself becomes overwhelming.

        The best way to manage climate change is not to look at the potential safe havens (which are seriously in doubt) but to look to reducing and eliminating the conditions that cause climate change. That way, more places and more people will remain safe.

        Reply
      • Mblanc

         /  August 6, 2015

        Cue Bob and ‘Nowhere to Run’ – Martha and the Vandellas

        Reply
  19. People the world over have no problem accepting the fact that changing a relatively small patch of the South Pacific less than hand full of degrees F and the resultant El Nino river of warm waters across the Pacific can produce profound changes in yearly climates. Not only here in the USA and the Western Hemisphere but Europe and Africa as well. The reality of changing a much larger patch of the Arctic from supper cold ice to +32 F open waters on our boarders an assuming it will be inconsequential defies reason.

    While weather folks talk up El Nino, they are blind to other huge areas of warmth popping up here and there with the equivalent or even larger heat bubbles materializing hither and yon.That puppy in the Gulf of Alaska, (now called “The Bolb”), has been parked there for two+ winters that I know of and has received scant media mention. Similarly there are others, though smaller, they are not insignificant on the East Coast as well as scattered globally. Each has a tremendous amount of energy represented.

    While discussing this oversight, (a year ago April now), with my net cell group, I mentioned that the current possible El Nino, which is sharpening up to be a “gum swallower,” as well as some of the other major heat bubbles hither and yon, would warrant a name of their own and suggested “Rouge El Ninos.” Another member with some language back ground found the Spanish term “Pillo” for rouge and suggested “El Pillo.” We all quickly liked the term and have been hawking it and would like to see it have legs. It also inspired me to pen a ditty:

    El Pillos here
    El Pillos there
    El Pillos popping everywhere.

    Grab your hat
    Mend your boots
    El Pillo is growing roots.

    Reply
    • That’s a catchy tune.

      Reply
    • Matt

       /  August 5, 2015

      Love it! It does bring up the issue naming conventions for climatic events… For example, if we are seeing an El Nino event that is 4 standard deviation event or “exceeding 100 El Ninos”, wouldn’t this warrant a new term to describe the event? It also brings up the issue of perhaps adding a prefix to all climate changed climatic events. That would really make it hard for the deniers to hide from reality!!

      What could be some good terms?? If we keep on the Spanish theme (i have no language skills and rely on Google translator – sorry) we could have “dióxido de carbono El Nino” sounds great! not as good as El Pillo mind, but catchy all the same, sounds like some fancy recipe🙂
      Or perhaps, they could be named after the biggest deniers, I’m sure this was submitted to NOAA in relation to naming Hurricanes?? Food for thought! El Nino Inhofe – i like that.

      Reply
  20. Haha re: El Pillo…I’m not a native speaker but speak some. I’ve heard Spaniards use it for “rascal.” 😉

    Reply
  21. Colorado Bob

     /  August 5, 2015

    “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald” – Gordon Lightfoot (HD w/ Lyrics)

    How winter used to be.

    Reply
  22. Reblogged this on GarryRogers Nature Conservation and Science Fiction (#EcoSciFi) and commented:
    Conservatives are beginning the shift. If these long-range forecasts come true, we might see a stampede. Perhaps we could see more than 32% by 2030.

    Reply
  23. Colorado Bob

     /  August 5, 2015

    Does anyone know where the love of God goes, when the waves turn the minutes to hours . ?

    Reply
    • I’m singing along with this one, Bob. My great-grandpa was a fisherman and all of us VB natives, the ones from the old families, have salt water pumping in the veins. It’s a lake song. But it rings true. Nature doesn’t fool around.

      Reply
    • Scott

       /  August 6, 2015

      Not sure where the love of God goes, but I do know that no good can come of it when the gales of November come early.

      Reply
  24. Colorado Bob

     /  August 5, 2015

    My people shipwrecked at Glenn Haven Bay.
    My mother wrote an entire book.

    Ii”s 30 inches from me.

    Reply
  25. This article is spot on given Florida’s recently spawned Invest 95L, which seems to be, as Robert suggests, “running diagonally across the Atlantic from Florida to England” 95L is already exhibiting characteristics of a cold-core system – see http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3062#commenttop

    Reply
  26. Colorado Bob

     /  August 5, 2015

    The Ttorlan Fanily History. My mother rewrote this entire book after 70 years.

    If the Ttorlan had died on the beach I would be not typing his tale.

    When they lived m they were Torans.

    My mother watched the history of America.

    It’s really an old story you change your name from : Ttorlan to Torino.

    Reply
  27. Reblogged this on jpratt27.

    Reply
  28. redskylite

     /  August 5, 2015

    Looking for a safe haven and shelter from the oncoming climate shifts:

    http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2015/08/is-anywhere-on-earth-safe-from-climate-change/400304/

    Reply
  29. ACDN

     /  August 5, 2015

    Hansen’s Age-of-Storms predictions sound really unsettling, though regarding extratropical cyclones we are probably better off here in west-central Europe than the Isles. Instead, I fear that our region could become a new tornado area. This year Germany’s been hit by a number of such in early summer, which I cannot remember being usual in any way. Not to mention that very unseasonable winter-type storm in the midst of July.

    If this is just a forerunner of things to come—the only plausible cause I can see is our anthropogene meltwater pool out in the Atlantic, together with some El Niño teleconnection as stated above—and looking at the dire climatic future that Europe awaits (along with the rest of the world, of course): drought-and-deluge, storms and probably a temporary return of the (Little?) Ice Age in the north, as well as sweltering heat in summer becoming the new normal (add “extreme” and “unprecedented” to each), etc.—some might actually consider to retreat from the coast and inland plains and move to the sheltered valleys and plateaux within the Alpide belt and other mountainous regions, as James Hansen is cited in redskylite’s article; after they had tried all their best to prevent their homes from becoming unlivable.

    Robert, thank you for opening our eyes to the real threats of our time, and keep spreading the message.

    Reply
    • I think that’s an astute observation. You have the heat pushing north across the Med and the cold pool developing in the North Atlantic. Lots of implied instability.

      Reply
  30. Robert in New Orleans

     /  August 5, 2015

    I think that this song by Gordon Lightfoot might be also appropriate for our collective future.

    Reply
    • Yeah. If you plan to face tomorrow do it soon all right. Do it yesterday.

      Sadly, we have human monsters to face down before we get the future the innocents of our world deserve.

      Reply
  31. Syd Bridges

     /  August 5, 2015

    The UK does not need to worry, because it is now led by the brilliant David Cameron, a man who “knows all that there is to be knowed.” Born with diamond and ruby encrusted rhodium spoons sticking out of every orifice, our Dave attended Eton and then Oxford-only the best for the so-deserving best. While port-swilling with his chums like Osborne in the exclusive Bullingdon Club, he realized just how superior he was to the proles. And studying politics, philosophy and economics, you could do very well without having to work like those “swotty” engineers and scientists, most of whom were too low-class to associate with anyway. Then our David worked for leading ToriesNorman Lamont-probably our most disastrous Chancellor of the Exchecquer-and then Michael Howard-one of our sleaziest politicians, who was heavily defeated by Tony Blair despite the Iraq war. His next job, clearly obtained on merit from his long industrial experience, was as head of communications for a large media company. In other words, a corporate shill. From then on, it was an MPs job, then leader of the Opposition and, finally, Prime Minister. Let no one say the class system isn’t alive and really florishing in today’s Britain.

    This ignorant buffoon then dismisses all the scientists’ warnings and wants to frack Britain up the wazoo. The weather disasters that occur elsewhere in the world can, of course, be ignored. But we’ve seen some incredible weather in the past few years in the UK and it’s only going to get worse. They managed to blame the flooding of the Somerset Levels on environmentalists not dredging the local rivers, despite the low gradient and the tidal nature of those rivers. A surge tide in the Bristol Channel, all too plausible with its topography and location, could overwhelm the sluices and send saltwater into much of that low-lying agricultural land.

    I once lived in that particular area of Somerset. The county name means the “land of the summer people.” It was flooded in winter in Anglo-Saxon times, and names like Muchelney, Western Zoyland, and Middlezoy refer to the fact that these places became islands in the winter. Something you don’t need to know for a PPE degree at Oxford.

    The winter of 2013-4 should have been a wake-up call, since flooding came both from the sea and on land. Areas along the Thames were flooded by the river as far up as Oxford, while there was flooding on the Severn and other rivers too. And that was as well as the flooding of the Somerset Levels.This followed an extraordinary year in 2012, when the Spring saw the worst drought since 1976 and yet the last eight months turned it into the wettest year on record.

    Pass the Port, old boy.

    Reply
    • Well said, Syd. I’m thinking we should set David up in a nice low-lying villa in Somerset and see how he likes the incoming weather.

      Reply
    • Mblanc

       /  August 6, 2015

      Nah, a villa on Rockall would be best.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockall

      It’s a trifle desolate, but he can have a ringside seat at the developing ‘cool pool’.

      Reply
      • Syd Bridges

         /  August 6, 2015

        Or he and the rest of them could compete in this. I’m sure they would be very good at kicking the beggar.

        Reply
    • “They managed to blame the flooding of the Somerset Levels on environmentalists not dredging the local rivers.”

      As if austerity has nothing to do with this. And what do the Tories think the dredge material will be replaced with? Air???

      The stupidity of some people never ceases to amaze me. And now some of the British have caught this sort of thing, like a virus and like here in the US.

      Edina Monsoon was right. There ought to be a stupidity tax; they should tax stupid people!😡 (Graduated income tax, of course.😉 )

      Reply
  32. Edina Monsoon: [explaining to the judge her problems with the law] Yes, Yes!… Why, oh why, do we pay taxes, hmmm? I mean, just to have bloody parking restrictions- and BUGGERY-UGLY traffic wardens, and BOLLOCKY-pedestrian-BLOODY-crossings?… and those BASTARD railings outside shops windows, making it so difficult, so you can’t even get in them! I mean, I know they’re there to stop stupid people running into the street and killing themselves! But we’re not all stupid! We don’t all need nurse-maiding. I mean, why not just have a Stupidity Tax? Just tax the stupid people!

    Link to scene in vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=1fvnCmrzX9I#t=1564

    Reply
  1. El Nino To Leave California Deep In Drought? | Planet in Distress
  2. 2015’s Cruel Climate Count Continues as NASA Shows July Was Hottest On Record | robertscribbler

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