Climate Change Superstorm Redux? Joaquin Shows Some Eerie Similarities to Sandy in Forecast.

It’s an El Nino year. So that’s supposed to mean a quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season, right? But as the tenth storm of 2015 threatens intensification, very heavy rains, and broadening wind fields as it’s expected to cloak itself in a frontal storm along a track a little south of Sandy — it appears a climate change — riled ocean and atmospheric system have failed to get the message.

Anyone looking at today’s ocean-atmospheric conditions and the Global Forecast System model run predictions probably couldn’t shake off the shivers as a number of chilling similarities to Superstorm Sandy began to show up in the five day outlook. The forecast is very, very uncertain. But it appears we might have a developing Superstorm-like Joaquin on our hands.

According to Mike Smith of Accuweather:

“There is going to be catastrophic flooding from North Carolina to Massachusetts, and this is going to disrupt the economy regardless of whether or not Hurricane Joaquin makes landfall.”

All Eyes on Joaquin As Climate Change Pattern Dominates North Atlantic

image

(GFS water vapor and wind forecast for October 2 shows a category 2-3 Jaoquine interacting with a powerful trough stretching down across the US East Coast. A trough extending all the way from Norway. Though not a polar trough like the one that interacted with Sandy, and though Joaquin’s characteristics aren’t as likely to go extra-tropical like Sandy, the broadening wind field, the potential left turn and the superstorm combining of trough and hurricane are potentially similar features. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

A freakish ‘Storms of My Grandchildren‘ type cool pool dominates the northern Atlantic. The backed-up Gulf Stream off the US East Coast is super hot (1-6 degrees Celsius above average). A massive trough is digging in — telegraphing from Norway through Iceland on to Southern Greenland, extending yet southwest over Newfoundland and the Northeastern and Mid Atlantic US. Further south, a developing Hurricane Joaquin over the Bahamas is about to shake hands with this massive trough. Just south of Newfoundland, a blocking high pressure system appears ready to bar Joaquin’s passage to the north and east. Setting up the potential for Joaquin to embed in the trough, to develop a rapidly expanding wind field even as it strengthens, and to possibly make a sickening left turn into the US East Coast.

Sound familiar? If so, it’s because you heard a similar story back during late October of 2012.

Jaoquin Forecast — Very Stormy Five Days for US East Coast

Currently, Jaoquine is a strengthening category category 2 hurricane packing 105 mile per hour (updated) winds as it drifts toward the southwest near the eastern Bahamas. Over the next two days Jaoquin is expected to strengthen, possibly into a powerful major hurricane, even as it begins to track toward the north and west. This track will result in its interacting with the large trough mentioned above. Even if Jaoquine does not make landfall, its interaction with the trough is expected to dump substantial and torrential amounts of rainfall from North Carolina on through New England even as it drives a broad tropical storm force wind field and related storm surge onto shore.

Jaoquine Rainfall

(NOAA five day rainfall forecast shows potential for significant related flooding for the Eastern Seaboard. Image source NOAA CPC.)

According to NOAA forecasts, 5 day rainfall totals are now expected to exceed 7 inches throughout large sections of North Carolina, Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey and Maryland with measures in excess of 5 inches expected from South Carolina all the way to Nantucket.

Joaquin’s wind field is also expected to expand as it interacts with both the trough and large circulation of the blocking high to the north and east. This broad wind field will bring at least strong nor-easter like conditions to the US East Coast. But the broad clockwise circulation off the blocking high also heightens risks that Joaquine will be shoved onshore even as it strengthens.

Current model runs bring a powerful category 1-3 Joaquine, packing a broad wind field with maximum strength from 90-115 mph, on shore near the North Carolina/Virginia border at around 2 PM Eastern Time on Sunday, October 4:

Joaquin track

(The National Hurricane Center shows Joaquin following a course the brings it over the Outer Banks and up the Chesapeake Bay. A worst case track for many sections of the US East Coast. Image source: NHC.)

If such a forecast does play out, it’s bad news. Very very bad news. It would represent a potentially very severe category 1-3 storm embedded in a large wind field and an even larger rain shield. A storm bringing heavy rains for days and lashing the coast with gale force winds up to 24 hours in advance of landfall. Features that would greatly enhance storm surge and flooding impacts — which could be very far reaching. It’s a dangerous potential interaction between Joaquine, a persistently extensive trough stretching across the North Atlantic, and one of the new, heavyweight, blocking patterns that have become so prevalent in this age of human-forced warming. One that could again wrap a hurricane in a, this time very wet, nor’easter.

Like Sandy, it would also serve as a herald for the oncoming new, more intense climate-change driven storms of our present age. Storms that have greater north-south energy exchanges. Storms that may be more more likely to form embedded or hybridized systems and storms that tap both the higher potential pressure and temperature differentials as well as an atmosphere that is more heavily laden with moisture.

Links:

The National Hurricane Center (Please publicly support!)

Current NOAA Joaquin in motion Infrared Graphic

Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale

NOAA Five Day Rainfall Estimates (Frequently Updated)

Earth Nullschool

Is Joaquin Another Superstorm Sandy?

How Will Joaquin Compare to Isabel/Sandy?

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212 Comments

  1. Syd Bridges

     /  September 30, 2015

    Thanks for the heads up on Joaquine, Robert. I hope that it will not come to pass, but even if the wolf goes somewhere else this time, I don’t suppose it will be long before he’s back at the door.

    However, I have seen several reports highlighting the anomalous SLR of the Eastern Seaboard, enhanced by Gulfstream backup and natural subsidence. Couple that with more energetic storms, and it’s a recipe for greatly enhanced flooding. Here is a recent report on the combined risks of the two processes.

    http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/articles/view/3259

    I would compare Chris Christie to King Cnut ordering the tide not to come in, except that Cnut knew that it wouldn’t obey him, and was demonstrating to his courtiers that he was not all-powerful.

    Reply
    • Would that republicans stop worshipping their golden calf and let government do its job and actually help people. I’m tired of this crappy world where money basically ruins all good things.

      Reply
    • Apparently this thing started out as a cold core frontal remnant low.. This event could well make weather history.

      Reply
      • – “…weather history.” The new norm.

        – Hi, Robert.
        Take care (Tip: monitor your health as closely as you do the rest).🙂

        Reply
        • Thanks, DT. It’s good advice. I’m healthy. Just stupid enough to drive myself into the ground. I’ll probably do it again even if I try not to.

          To my knowledge, though previously cold core systems do at times develop into tropical cyclones, I’m pretty sure there’s never been an observed instance where a cold core system has transitioned to tropical, then bombified into a major hurricane in the North Atlantic. Per that observation, and with Jaoquin at 105 mph as of the 8PM EST advisory, we are 10 mph worth of intensity away from making weather history.

          It also hints at the heightened overall storm potential in the North Atlantic likely due to rising temp and pressure differentials in the atmosphere and at the ocean surface.

  2. Updated NHC track now conforms with GFS. ECMWF coming into line. This thing is aimed directly at the Chesapeake Bay… Worst possible storm track…

    Reply
  3. Joaquin outages: NJ utilities get ready

    …The company [Jersey Central Power & Light.] has taken “aggressive steps” that include setting up specially designed flood barriers and pumps in key substations as an added precaution against rising water levels.
    We are preparing to activate our emergency command center (in Middletown) and our incident command system…”
    http://www.app.com/story/weather/stormwatch/2015/09/30/joaquin-outages-nj-utilities-get-ready/73099492/

    Reply
  4. Phil

     /  September 30, 2015

    Great to hear from you Robert. Sounds like interesting times ahead for people along the eastern coast of the USA.

    Also interesting about the potential for a large WWB reinforcing El Nino over the next few days.

    Reply
    • Hey, Phil. Yeah. The Nino dance is still underway. That WWB pushes closer and closer to a new record event. If we warm through November, as seems somewhat more likely now, that’s a distinct possibility. September was probably +2.1 to +2.2 C. Two more months of Nino 3.4 warming does it.

      Reply
  5. Startling viral video shows lake drying up in drought-ridden California

    A breathtaking timelapse of Folsom Lake in California shows the dramatic effects a four-year drought is having on water levels in the state.

    “I’ve been collecting and assembling these since March of 2015 through August 2015 showing the effects of the drought in California is having on our reservoirs,” Sacramento resident Ryan Griffith said in his Facebook post.

    The most powerful images begin around 26 seconds into the 40-second video, as the water levels drop precipitously. The timelapse was created from a series of still photographs taken at Brown’s Ravine at the Folsom Lake Marina, KXTV reported.
    https://www.rt.com/usa/317091-folsom-lake-drought-timelapse/

    Reply
  6. – Algae and Anthropogenic Nutrients via Nitrogen and Phosphorus with N (wet or dry — aerosol or as runoff) is a very common thread. The Ohio River is in Senator Mitch Mcconnell’s [Kentuckuy] area of responsibility.

    Toxic Algae Outbreak Overwhelms a Polluted Ohio River
    By MICHAEL WINESSEPT. 30, 2015

    The Ohio River, transformed by mining and industrial waste and sewage overflows into the nation’s most polluted major waterway, has a new and unexpected tormentor this fall: carpets of poisonous algae.

    Pads of toxic blue-green algae have speckled nearly two thirds of the 981-mile river in the last five weeks, experts say, in an outbreak that has curbed boating, put water utilities on alert and driven the river’s few hardy swimmers back to shore.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/01/us/toxic-algae-outbreak-overwhelms-a-polluted-ohio-river.html?_r=0

    Reply
    • – ‘Koch Industries’ and ALEC (formerly Koch Nitrogen and ) should echo in everyone’s minds as you read this and other related articles.
      Schumer urges federal officials to focus on algae blooms

      WASHINGTON — Spending more federal grant money to reduce runoff could help reduce toxic algal blooms in upstate New York lakes, Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer said Wednesday.

      Schumer said he’s urging the U.S. Department of Agriculture to prioritize funding for two grant programs to reduce runoff by planting ground cover and other methods.
      http://www.lohud.com/story/tech/science/environment/2015/09/30/schumer-algae-blooms/73113848/

      Reply
      • RS: “Updated NHC track now conforms with GFS. ECMWF coming into line. This thing is aimed directly at the Chesapeake Bay… Worst possible storm track…”
        – The Bay is usually choked with N etc. Will there be a big mixing of and ocean water — a backwash from the storm surge? It’s a shallow bay too, I believe.
        Who knows…

        Reply
  7. Robert: here is my comment I posted on FB along with your article in my own ongoing climate communication quest: Hey you folks in the North East U.S. (which happens to include me at the moment). You remember Sandy? Yes? Flooded subways and such. So I’ve got an absolutely mouth-watering morsel for you: A climate change article from my very favorite climate writer. I know, I know: “Ho the freakin’ hum!” BUT…this is about something that may possibly be slamming you right in the tuchus (yes, the spelling is correct) in a few days. Blah-de-blah (there is a climate change induced ‘blocking high pressure ridge’ in the North Atlantic, just like with Sandy, likely to steer developing hurricane Joaquin-which is riding over abnormally warm waters, into the Eastern Seaboard. This is still uncertain, but…) So….you know….possibly serious/catastrophic climate change events in real time and your very door step! Give it a read and follow along (and hopefully no one actually gets hurt in this):

    Reply
    • David, did I mention that you rock. I am fortunate to be in the company of wonderful people. Hopefully, we’ll get a few more folks listening in. Over the next few decades, the N Atlantic is going to undergo a profound and dangerous transformation. People really need to be aware.

      Reply
    • – Hey, “… climate communication quest” I like that.

      Reply
  8. Well, if the pattern holds up, as some expect, it won’t be too many years before this will be “the new normal”.

    Sent from my iPad 🙏🏻

    >

    Reply
  9. Thanks so much, Robert–I’m emailing your post specifically to my friends and relatives that live from DC to northern Massachussetts. Was just out there(DC) this past w/e.

    Reply
  10. Colorado Bob

     /  October 1, 2015

    RS –
    Glad to see your post, and thanks for the update on the last thread. I won’t give advice, to bright fellow such as yourself. I think this subject is grinding on a great many of us . It’s a good topic for a post. My advice for everyone is to get out in Nature . You don’t have to drive to the Grand Canyon, just make time to walk to the park, or sit in your own backyard.
    Small steps.

    I cleans the mind.

    Now, as to the post, the EURO model runs for Sandy one week out showed it hitting Atlantic City. All the other spaghetti plots showed the old pattern to the Northeast, and out into the Atlantic. With each new run they all began bending back to the West, the Euro model didn’t move at all.

    The runs for Joaquin show the same Westward bending.

    If folks want to keep up , I recommend watching Dr. Master’s thread . That place is the best on the web when these events unfold. They are a bunch of rabid info hunters, and when it’s clam in the Atlantic, they can be bores, but when an event like this comes all, no one beats them

    Here’s his latest :

    Joaquin Approaching Bahamas; Possible U.S. Landfall This Weekend

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3132#commenttop

    The only bright spot I see in the latest spaghetti plots is that they show Joaquin going into the US House of Representatives. And since it’s “Joaquin” , an ill legal alien may invade them.
    Oh the Irony.

    Reply
    • Syd Bridges

       /  October 1, 2015

      CB. I think the House of self-Representatives should hold a Day of Prayer tomorrow to ward off that possibility. If it works, then God will be shown to be more powerful than physics-which they all knew anyway. If it doesn’t work, then it’s His punishment for all those illegal gay immigrants who are living there, cleaning Congressmen’s swimming pools for two bucks an hour.

      If his goes out to sea, it could end up warming the sea south of the Greenland blocking high, and that might lead to more cyclones for the UK. If it hits the Eastern Seaboard, it may add more warmth there and still send storms east. I will still be in Colorado, but I’m confident my UK relatives will be as well protected by Mr. Cameron as US residents will be protected by Congress.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  October 1, 2015

        Syd Bridges
        That’s the beauty of “magical thinking” , every TV show proves your theory right.

        Reply
    • Tom

       /  October 1, 2015

      Great comment CO Bob, to a timely post by our host! Keep up the good work Robert (and everyone of your knowledgeable commenters).

      Reply
    • Loni

       /  October 1, 2015

      “Oh the Irony”, well played Col. Bob.

      Reply
  11. Colorado Bob

     /  October 1, 2015

    Syd Bridges –
    Where in Colorado ?

    I was at Grand Lake. Mineral l Hot Springs Boulder, Slaughterer House Creek. Salida, Estes Park, Rifle, Steamboat Springs.

    Reply
    • – DT here, In the ’50s and early ’60s I made quite a few visits, and stays, to Grand Lake.
      I went to 4th and 5th grade in Boulder at University Hill elementary. Had relatives working at the Daily Camera. Pitched a no-hitter in Little League with the Flat Irons as a backdrop.
      The air was crisp and clear.

      Reply
    • Syd Bridges

       /  October 1, 2015

      Colorado Bob. I work at a Buddhist retreat in Larimer County, about 55 miles NW of Fort Collins. It’s about 9 miles from Red Feather Lakes and 20 south of the Wyoming border. We are not that far from Estes Park. As we are about 7700 ft to 8500, we won’t have to worry about SLR, though storm intensity or fires are a real worry. In England, I stay near the River Severn, between Bristol and Gloucester. Sharpness is about 2 miles away. It can get 40 ft tides and, I think, is second only to the Bay of Fundy.

      Best wishes to everyone and I hope we dodge this bullet.

      Reply
  12. Colorado Bob

     /  October 1, 2015

    RS ………
    Thanks for not taking down the off topic videos, they are that walk outside I was speaking about. This is really grim work we are doing here, and sometimes “It’s A Beautiful Day” is just the right tonic for us all.

    Reply
    • I’ll tell Neska LaFlamme you find the song helpful! She teaches piano in Luray VA where my granddaughter lives. Her daughter Kira lives in Harrisonburg now but still runs a little theatre in Luray.Small world. So if Joaquin hits, we’ll be in the thick of it–after 4″ rain in two hours Tuesday and a flooded basement. Apprehension the song doesn’t quite fix.

      Reply
  13. Colorado Bob

     /  October 1, 2015

    RS –
    You have no idea how many people love you.

    Reply
  14. Colorado Bob

     /  October 1, 2015

    Buckle your chin straps kids, “Hell is coming to Breakfast.”.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  October 1, 2015

      I plan the spam world with this. Please feel free to join me .

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  October 1, 2015

        One can write an 8 page reasoned essay on on any topic in the world, But a 9 word slogan runs over it like a cross town bus.

        Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  October 1, 2015

        Buckle your chin straps kids, “Hell is coming to Breakfast.”.

        Reply
    • Loni

       /  October 1, 2015

      Col. Bob, thanks for posting these musical classics, (I’m 62, so this is my stuff), listening while reading kinda takes the sting out of the subject matter.

      Reply
  15. redskylite

     /  October 1, 2015

    Glad you are back Robert and well enough to resume your excellent and thought provoking posts. We can read that you are passionately concerned about the climate change that we (humans) are accelerating, and getting the carbon cycle back in balance (as it was in the pre-industrial ages). It must take a lot of your time and energy, we all hope that all efforts will be well rewarded by increasing action (by people, businesses and governments) and the spread of climate science related knowledge. It is ironic that the root of the problem itself (i.e. creating energy by burning fossils and released stored CO2 and other GHG’s), is now threatened by the very monster it has fabricated.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/01/worlds-energy-systems-at-risk-from-global-warming-say-leading-firms

    Reply
  16. redskylite

     /  October 1, 2015

    Maybe the mitigation lies in embracing newer renewable technology and micro-grids, and not relying on the old centralized model. As the effects are being to be much more noticeable and pronounced world-wide, countries must work feverishly if they want to maintain modern living standards.

    Sorry for the overused term but time for a paradigm shift . . .

    http://www.energylivenews.com/2015/10/01/energy-sector-must-be-prepared-for-climate-change/

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  October 1, 2015

      Buckle your chin straps kids, “Hell is coming to Breakfast.”.

      Reply
  17. Colorado Bob

     /  October 1, 2015

    redskylite ;

    We dug up the dragon to think we can control it is folly. It’s force we can never master.

    Reply
  18. Colorado Bob

     /  October 1, 2015

    Here we go

    Buckle your chin straps kids, “Hell is coming to Breakfast.”.

    Reply
  19. – Meanwhile in the Pacific where forests are incinerated to plant palm oil plantations for export ending as non-essential consumer products. Resulting smoke and ash particulate now part atmospheric inventory.
    -? How will ash-fall impact ph, etc. of ocean water?

    ‘Indonesia begins evacuation of infants from haze-affected regions’

    CNN)Indonesian officials have begun evacuating infants and their mothers from Riau province in Indonesia as levels of air pollution from peat and forest fires on Sumatra remain hazardous across the region.

    The Mayor of Penkanbaru, the capital of Riau and one of the worst-affected areas of Sumatra, issued the order to evacuate all babies under six months of age on Tuesday afternoon as thick smog continued to cause illness and limit visibility in the area.

    The air pollution index in the region has hovered above 1,000 for over a week, while visibility in Penkanbaru has fallen below 100 meters on some days. Any air pollution reading higher than 300 is deemed hazardous.
    http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/01/asia/indonesia-evacuates-babies-haze/

    Reply
    • ‘More than 35,000 people have fallen ill from the air pollution in the three months up to the end of September, according to the Riau province health agency. Most of those were suffering from respiratory ailments, although eye infections and skin irritation have also been reported. ‘

      Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  October 3, 2015

      http://news.nationalpost.com/news/world/worlds-oldest-rainforests-burn-blanketing-singapore-malaysia-and-indonesia-in-thick-smog
      Southeast Asia has some of the oldest continuous rainforest in the world, part of a swathe that once ran from Malaysia to Northern Australia. Much of Sumatra has a thick canopy of trees covering waterlogged peat soil, an early form of coal, which is drained when logged, leaving a vast area of tinder that can explode and smolder for extended periods.

      The fires may be extinguished by November, the country’s disaster agency said on Thursday. The blazes are on track to become the worst on record, Agence France-Presse reported Friday, citing Robert Field, a Columbia University scientist based at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

      Reply
  20. Mark from OZ

     /  October 1, 2015

    AUS gets new satellite feed ( the Himawari-8) world’s most advanced.
    http://media.bom.gov.au/
    Welcome back RS!

    Reply
  21. Matt

     /  October 1, 2015

    Welcome back Robert!
    On its current projected path is anyone going to send your Senator Inhofe a bucket so he can take the floodwaters from Jaoquin into congress? Perhaps they could tip one on his head??

    Reply
  22. Abel Adamski

     /  October 1, 2015

    Welcome back Robert, you are valuable and valued, when you need support and help just silently ask. Take heed of your dreams and intuition.
    Take care

    Reply
  23. Abel Adamski

     /  October 1, 2015

    And a take by the Bloomberg editorial board on the UK Bankers comments
    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-10-01/what-does-boe-s-mark-carney-know-about-climate-change-

    Reply
  24. Caroline

     /  October 1, 2015

    Jason Box tweeted recently: “when Arctic sea ice declines, wave action increases, further destabilizing sea ice by mechanical forcing, a positive feedback amplifier”

    Any thoughts on Joaquin and Arctic sea ice destabilization?

    Reply
  25. LAM78

     /  October 1, 2015

    Robert, as of 5 pm a close view at IR pic with 2 km resolution on CIMSS University of Wisconsin reveals that Joaquins eye is passing over the San Salvador Island (Bahamas). By the same time, it seems that Joaquin now is rapidly intensifying.

    Latest Dvorak/CI number is 5.8 and the eye seems to be warming now. See http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2015/adt/text/11L-list.txt and make your own judgement. These numbers are modified by NOAA due to the TCs characteristics, e.g size, eye size, basin etc but give a reasonable picture of what’s going on.

    Hope you had a good vacation!

    Reply
    • LAM78

       /  October 1, 2015

      CI number now 6.0 after another 30 minutes and if nothing spectacular happens the next couple of hours, Joaquin should be classified as a very dangerous Cat 4 hurricane. If the eye clears more, I don’t think you we can rule out the possibility that Joaquin temporarily reach Cat 5… Last time that happened was 2007 when Felix roared through the Caribbean.

      Reply
  26. LAM78

     /  October 1, 2015

    And after another 30 minutes the CI number went up to 6,2…… Let’s see where we are in about 3-4 hours.. Maybe a CI-number at 7,0 at that time?

    Reply
    • LAM78

       /  October 1, 2015

      6.3 now…

      Reply
      • LAM78

         /  October 1, 2015

        Up to 6,5 but the intensification seems to start leveling off. NHC rated Joaquin now as a Cat 4 hurricane. The eye has finally become more visible.

        Reply
  27. – On the west coast California USA:
    (Hey Andy in SD, What’s up?)
    LA Times 1001

    California’s drought…

    The lack of rain and snow hit California water supplies hard. The Sierra snowpack’s water content measured just 5% of normal, obliterating the previous record low of 25%.

    Water supplies were cut, wells ran dry and reservoir levels plummeted. Here’s how far below normal some are:

    Lake Shasta (59%)
    Lake Oroville (48%)
    Trinity Lake (33%)
    Folsom Lake (32%)

    The 2015 water year also saw the highest average temperature in 120 years of record-keeping. According to the California Climate Tracker, the state’s average temperature was 58.4 degrees — more than three degrees warmer than average and almost a full degree warmer than the previous high in 1995-96.

    The lack of runoff has also reduced stream flow, creating dangerous conditions for native fish.
    According to federal statistics, a total of 813,163 acres have burned across the state this calendar year.
    http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-grim-consequences-of-california-drought-accelerating-in-2015-20151001-story.html

    Reply
  28. Greg

     /  October 1, 2015

    Jeff Masters latest post on Joaquin has this side:
    “Storm-surge expert Hal Needham emphasized the rarity of the situation in a blog post on Thursday morning. “The duration of this wind event is absolutely mind-boggling,” says Needham. Strong, sustained onshore winds (more than 20 mph) could be affecting the mid-Atlantic coast for more than 96 solid hours, regardless of Joaquin’s track. High water will be present for as many as 10 high tides over several days, increasing the risk of erosion and flooding along the coast as well as up to a few miles inland. “This developing situation is truly historic and has not been observed in the modern history of the Mid-Atlantic Coast,” says Needham.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3135

    Hell might stick around long after the breakfast plates are cleared.

    Reply
  29. labmonkey2

     /  October 1, 2015

    Musical Interlude by Bob Dylan

    Reply
  30. Scientists suggest a new, earth-shaking twist on the demise of the dinosaurs

    New research suggests that the asteroid or comet that slammed into the Earth 66 million years ago rocked the planet so violently that it accelerated a massive volcanic eruption in India, a double catastrophe that wiped out the dinosaurs and 70 percent of the Earth’s species.

    The study, published Thursday in the journal Science, puts a twist on the consensus explanation of the mass extinction at the end of the Cretaceous period. Scientists have long been confident that a mountain-sized object crashed into the planet, leaving traces even today of a vast crater at the tip of Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2015/10/01/scientists-suggest-a-new-earth-shaking-twist-on-the-demise-of-the-dinosaurs/

    Reply
  31. Maria

     /  October 2, 2015

    Embed didn’t work.

    Avezzano, Italy

    Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 2, 2015

      This corresponds with above red image. Sorry about that Robert and all.

      A neat image published by the European Space Agency. I’ll try embedding it and if that does not work I’ll post the link to it.

      This Sentinel-2A false colour image shows agricultural structures in the Abruzzo region of central Italy.

      The varying shades of red and other colours across the entire image indicate how sensitive the satellite’s multispectral camera is to differences in vegetation cover and chlorophyll content. This is used to provide key information on plant health.

      For this image, the brighter reds indicate more photosynthetically active vegetation, as seen in many of the fields and along the Roveto Valley Abruzzi mountain range in the lower left.

      Reply
  32. Nice to see you back, Robert. Hope you pace yourself and only pick the important fights, though in a way I guess they are all important.

    Reply
  33. rustj2015

     /  October 2, 2015

    Salud, Robert! An honored steward of our awareness!

    ‘We have become, by the power of a glorious evolutionary accident called intelligence, the stewards of life’s continuity on earth. We did not ask for this role, but we cannot abjure it. We may not be suited to it, but here we are.’
    Stephen Jay Gould

    Is this site reliably “predicting” the expansion of Joaquin?
    https://www.windyty.com/?34.539,-70.594,4
    If so, the image I “see” is an abbreviated “flip” of AMOC, a simile. And what is the formation that moves ccw called at the Northumberland Strait?
    Is the ?cold? from that wedge off Greenland also illustrative of freshwater flowing from Greenland?

    Reply
  34. Rust, thanks for that Stephen Jay Gould quote. I love him.

    Reply
  35. OT of this post. DT, some good news re: pollution in CA.

    California Sees a 76 Percent Decline in Cancer Risks, Thanks to Cleaner Air

    According to a new study published in the journal “Environmental Science and Technology,” California saw a significant drop in seven major toxic air pollutants between 1990 and 2012. All told, this cleaner air has led to a 76% decrease in Californian’s associated risk of developing cancer due to exposure to seven major air pollutants.

    According to the study’s authors, the most important improvements in Californian’s cancer risk came from decreasing pollution from diesel vehicles. From 1990 to 2012, concentrations of diesel soot (also called “diesel particulate matter” or DPM) declined by 68%. These reductions occurred in spite of the fact that total vehicle miles travelled by diesel vehicles in California increase by more than 30% over this period. Furthermore, between 1990 and 2012 the state’s population grew by 31% and the gross state product grew increased 74%.

    http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/california-sees-a-76-percent-decline-in-cancer-risks-thanks-to-cleaner-air/

    Reply
  36. Matt

     /  October 2, 2015

    Looks like you guys have dodged a bullet! – this time……Not sure if we down under in Aus will dodge the El Nino bullet this year!!! Continent starting to heat ominously early😦

    Reply
  37. Ralph

     /  October 2, 2015

    Over in the pacific, there is a fun line of lows 10 degrees north of the equator. Fruit machine line up for how many typhoons peel off. I wouldn’t bet against a jackpot…
    And the CCI equatorial SST anomaly just spiked well over the degree mark (of course much more in the Eastern El Nino region).
    Looks like the model projections of El Nino being at about its peak might have been premature.

    Reply
  38. Good to see you back, Robert! Was getting a little worried about you!

    Reply
  39. Greg

     /  October 2, 2015

    Bermuda certainly hasn’t dodged a bullet. Joaquin has sat over the islands for more than a day now! No reporting coming out of there now but I did found this audio from a brave soul reporting with water up to her ankles in her home and no shelters available:

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  October 2, 2015

      Sorry, read “Bahamas” but Bermuda could still be in the crosshairs.

      Reply
  40. Greg

     /  October 2, 2015

    Also there is a 1-1000 year flood event unfolding in the Carolinas regardless of what Joaquin does and could get worse depending on Joaquin’s pattern.
    ” EXTREME PATTERN to produce EPIC RAINFALL IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC, WITH A VERY SERIOUS FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT, AND FOR A LONG-DURATION ONSHORE WIND FLOW ON PARTS OF THE EAST COAST WITH SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING”

    Reply
  41. Caroline

     /  October 2, 2015

    Slightly OT but ultimately tied into AGW/climate catastrophes and the degradation of life on earth caused by human behaviors:
    News today of Obama unveiling new regulations that limit smog causing emissions to 70 ppb.
    Setting allowable ground-level ozone limits to 70 ppb is safe? Really?
    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/blighting-plants-choking-lungs-warming-world-among-smog-effects/
    Can someone explain to me why a more protective standard for ozone emissions wasn’t set by Obama?
    This latest news does not surprise me but I am really curious to understand the dynamics at play here.

    What does he have to lose at this point?

    Setting aside the pathology of the desire to get re-elected in 2012 superseding the importance of saving human/nonhuman lives (i.e.—-Obama was worried that pushing for stricter limits in 2011 would influence his chance of re-election so he caved)—— why would he not push for the most strict limit now?

    Republicans and the coal industry are going to fight this whether or not it’s 65 or 70—-

    How can anyone justify this limit when studies find that no safe level of ozone exists:

    February 16, 2006
    Source:
    Yale University
    Summary:
    Even at very low levels, ozone–the principal ingredient in smog–increases the risk of premature death, according to a nationwide study to be published in the April edition of the journal Environmental Health Perspectives. The study, sponsored by the Environmental Protection Agency and the Centers for Disease Control, found that if a safe level for ozone exists, it is only at very low or natural levels and far below current U.S. and international regulations.

    And few (with the exception of steadfast Gail Zawacki and our very own DT) even mention the destructive effects of ozone on nonhuman life.
    It should be noted that none of this surprises me.
    What continues to astound me is why there isn’t more outrage and action. Who is paying attention?

    Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 2, 2015

      Caroline, my sense is that Obama went with what he felt was most realistic with this Congress. Truth is that people are going about their lives and only those with a keen interest in the environment are paying attention. Ditto mass shootings. Why aren’t we, as a country, taking to the streets and to the voting booths to protest congressmen who let the NRA write their legislation. That vote to cut mental health spending while giving tax cuts to the 1%…I don’t know what it will take……

      Reply
    • This ‘habitation zone’ (ground level) anthropogenic ozone is extremely damaging to biotic tissue — it always has been. Levels in the double digits is harmful — I have no doubt. I’ve seen and felt it work, both upon myself and upon plants and trees.

      It is insidious beyond description.

      On a personal level, the closest example is how it felt when I was treated to a couple dozen Cobalt 60 radiation doses for cancer. (40 years ago.) I was exposed to many millions of micro-volts of radiation. In some ways it’s like being air cooked as it works its power and penetrates to the cellular and tissue level.

      Ozone works in the much the same manner (… penetrates to the cellular and tissue level).
      My body feels ozone damage any time local levels are into the 20-30 ppb.
      A 30 ppb absolute level would be beneficial. 70 ppb is reckless and inhuman. Premature deaths are preventable deaths no matter who makes allowances or who is at the root.
      Premature deaths are homicides in my moral, ethical, and medical vocabulary.

      Anthropogenic ozone, as are most GHGs, parts of our air pollution inventory.
      Text from a scientific study that fits here describing some components of the O3 problems: “ozone (O3), nitric acid vapor (HNO3) and ammonia (NH3)”. Caustic as all hell.
      This O3 never, to my knowledge, appears alone. It is always partnered with other potent toxic aerosols.
      # (Ozone, nitric acid, and ammonia air pollution is unhealthy for people and ecosystems in southern Sierra Nevada, California — http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/bytnerowicz/psw_2010_bytnerowicz%28cisneros%29003.pdf

      Our graveyards are full of these ‘premature’ deaths. Who mourns for them? Our hospital and medical facilities are burdened with those not yet in ‘mortis-land’.
      Enough.
      DT

      Reply
      • – Some destructive and powerful physics of O3 in our contemporary society – tires:

        (“… corrosive, convert them into heat,ozone will attack the molecules and chemical bonds which weaken the overall integrity”) Yes, tires — and biotic tissue.

        ‘Why Are Car Tires Black Anyways?’

        …The color originates from the combination of stabilizing chemicals which are added and blended with the tire polymer during the production of a tire.

        …The chemical responsible is called ‘carbon black‘ and it’s added to protect your tires against ozone and UV damage. Manufactures found that by adding the chemical, it drastically prolongs the life of the tire. So much so, that all tire manufacturers use this same additive in tire production.

        Carbon black also has the capability to resist the corrosive effects of ozone and absorb the UV rays to convert them into heat.

        Heat is preferable because as the tires cool down or heat up, it can expand or contract to accommodate the added stress. Where ozone will attack the molecules and chemical bonds which weaken the overall integrity of a tire, expansion and contraction are less damaging and less dangerous.
        http://zidbits.com/2010/11/why-are-car-tires-black-anyways/

        Reply
      • … ozone will attack the molecules and chemical bonds – ozone will attack the molecules and chemical bonds !

        Reply
  42. Stephen

     /  October 2, 2015

    I know this sounds way off topic also but it is imperative that Obama, et.al. end the wars. If I sound like a peacenik, I am. The wars and the MIC are not affordable any longer. They were always about profit in any case, not terrorism or “keeping us safe” but profit as in “War is A Racket” (Smedley Butler). The government and corporate sectors no longer have that luxury. The money must be utilized towards climate change mitigation.
    Peace
    Stephen

    Reply
    • Tom

       /  October 3, 2015

      Stephen: didn’t you get the memo? We’re being sleep-walked into WW III.

      Reply
  43. Maria

     /  October 2, 2015

    France’s former energy minister hopes to raise $3 billion from Western donors by next year to help cash-strapped African nations fund renewable energy projects, in a bid to tackle pollution and spur development.

    Jean Louis Borloo said his Energies for Africa project already had commitments from Western governments which would be used to ensure African nations had the capital to contribute their share of major renewables projects.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/30/us-energy-africa-idUSKCN0RU2GC20150930

    Reply
  44. Maria

     /  October 2, 2015

    SolarCity to Make High-Efficiency Panel

    <b?You’re talking about a 40 percent increase in efficiency at a lower cost,” he said. “We have to get solar energy to be cheaper than natural gas or coal, and these breakthroughs get us there.”

    When SolarCity, the fast-growing provider of rooftop solar electricity systems, announced last year that it would begin making its own equipment, executives said they would focus on creating high-efficiency panels in an effort to reduce the cost of the electricity they sell. They announced on Friday that they have done just that, with a panel that converts more of the sun’s energy into electricity than competing products.

    ……The move into manufacturing, a business that has proved deadly for many other upstart American solar companies, came with the acquisition of a start-up, Silevo, and is intended to help the company compete with conventional energy sources once generous federal subsidies begin to phase out at the end of next year.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/business/energy-environment/solarcity-to-make-high-efficiency-panel.html?ref=energy-environment&_r=0

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  October 2, 2015

      That’s great news Maria. These are by far the most efficient solar cells sold commercially in the world and at lower cost. They are building a 1GW factory in NY to crank these out in huge volumes. Will be a game changer. Note they are also innovating with selling bonds online directly to invest so people can install these with no up front costs and lower utility bills. Some of these bonds are as high as 5.75% if you hold them long enough. I noted from their press releases that Google invested $750 million into these bonds and they are hiring a lot of workers. A great company taking on climate change head-on. I wish them all the luck in the world.

      Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 2, 2015

        Thanks Greg. I didn’t know they are selling bonds in this way. Re: the factory, I learned in this piece that their huge factory is in Buffalo, NY. Could not be happier for that area. For sure other areas of the country need the boost. I just happen to know lots about it because my folks lived in Albany for many years. Ya, the best of luck to them…after reading your post I’m inspired to dig deeper about this company. Thanks.

        Reply
  45. Maria

     /  October 2, 2015

    ExxonMobil Faces Heightened Risk of Climate Litigation, Its Critics Say

    If Obama follows up on this I’ll forgive all his prior decisions on climate decisions that I disagreed with. This is an interesting read–it lays out the different mechanisms and laws that can be used with analysis of each one. I did not know, for example, that then NY Attorney General used the Martin Act to go after coal companies. He had a mysterious change of passion once he became governor.

    ExxonMobil may face renewed legal challenges from plaintiffs claiming that it should have acted to address the risks of climate change, based on new evidence that its own researchers warned management about the emerging threat decades ago.

    http://insideclimatenews.org/news/23092015/ExxonMobil-May-Face-Heightened-Climate-Litigation-Its-Critics-Say

    Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 2, 2015

      The last sentence in my paragraph is meant to be sarcastic! It seems wordpress didn’t like the code I used.😉

      Reply
    • -‘”…10 million [+] barrels a day.”

      Russia and Saudi Arabia to Continue Pumping Oil
      World’s two biggest oil producers indicate that they won’t crimp production despite price falls

      Russia and Saudi Arabia—the world’s two biggest oil producers—indicated Friday they weren’t pulling back from huge crude output levels that have helped send prices tumbling.

      Russia said it produced oil in September at levels not seen since the fall of the Soviet Union, pumping an average of 10.74 million barrels a day, government data showed on Friday. Oil production increased 0.4% from August.

      On the same day, one of the world’s most influential oil ministers—Saudi Arabia’s Ali al-Naimi—said his country would continue investing in oil and gas, saying his country remained committed to energy resource development, according to a Saudi Press Agency report. The world’s largest exporter has ramped up production above 10 million barrels a day for the past few months.
      http://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-oil-output-rises-to-post-soviet-high-in-september-1443777432

      Reply
  46. Maria

     /  October 2, 2015

    The VW saga continues. May it be Exxon that is next.

    U.S. States Jumping Into Investigation of VW Emissions Deception.

    A bipartisan coalition of attorneys general from at least 30 states and the District of Columbia are organizing a fast-moving investigation into the possibilities of consumer fraud and environmental violations by the German automaker Volkswagen.

    At least two of the attorneys general, from New York and Illinois, have served subpoenas on the company, according to people briefed on the inquiry who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not allowed to discuss a continuing investigation.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/business/us-states-jumping-into-investigation-of-vw-emissions-deception.html

    Reply
    • – The Denver Post

      Colorado pollution data helped expose VW emissions cheat

      VW diesel sedan emissions were way above diesel light trucks and comparable gasoline engines, Colorado records proved.

      RapidScreen vans monitoring tailpipe emissions as cars zoom onto metro Denver highways proved key witnesses to the manipulation of emissions control software on Volkswagen diesel sedans.

      “They had emissions many times higher than the other passenger vehicles,” said Peter McClintock, a Los Angeles consultant who advises Opus Inspection, the private contractor that runs the Colorado vehicle emissions testing program.
      http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_28909601/colorado-pollution-data-helped-expose-vw-emissions-cheat

      Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 2, 2015

        Haha, I can hear the CO folk screaming, “me too, me too helped catch the villain. Where’s my prize? 😉

        Also surprised that CO was involved since emissions testing is not even required in parts of the state. Good on them.

        Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 2, 2015

        The “good news” re: pollution is that VW cars are fairly scarce there. At times I felt out of step with the culture of the Western Slope when I recently spent some time there with my VW. It also limited where I could go in the winter.

        Numbers are also at play. Dann said diesel cars, like the VW sedans and station wagons, represent about 11,000 out of 5 million vehicles on Colorado roads.

        Reply
      • Ouse M.D.

         /  October 3, 2015

        Yes ans the NSA had nothing to do with leaking the info, since:

        http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150614/1023344263.html

        Reply
  47. Maria

     /  October 2, 2015

    This is terrific..

    Entrepreneurs Transform a WWII Bomb Shelter into World’s First Underground Farm

    It’s probably the last place you would think of for growing food, but about 100 feet below London, the one-year old startup Growing Underground is producing what it calls “sustainable and mouth-wateringly fresh micro greens and salad.” It’s the world’s first subterranean farm. The site, a bomb shelter during World War II, was abandoned for 70 years until entrepreneurs Richard Ballard and Steven Dring came along.

    http://themindunleashed.org/2015/10/entrepreneurs-transform-a-wwii-bomb-shelter-into-worlds-first-underground-farm.html

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  October 2, 2015

      Maria, as a follow-up the world’s largest vertical farm is going up in New Jersey. This single location is designed to feed 80,000 people with fresh locally produced delicious chemical free produce. I really like this video as an introduction. The CEO intends to make this scalable and cost effective anywhere in the world. It uses 95% less water, no chemicals and is closed loop and localized. All in all fascinating. This will certainly be a big part of our future.
      http://ecowatch.com/2015/07/10/worlds-largest-vertical-farm/

      Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 2, 2015

        Thanks for this, Greg! I love that these companies are going into areas that have been left behind by traditional manufacturing that moved overseas. It makes financial sense for them, for sure, but the co-benefits for the community, the urban children, are no small matter.

        In my next life, sustainable farming will be my life’s dedication. Growing up in a city I didn’t become aware of these issues until it was too late to make career shifts.

        Reply
  48. Robert – here is my newest Huffington Post climate article as promised. Please feel free to share as you wish: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/davidgoldstein/the-fire-next-time-the-pr_b_8222716.html

    Reply
  49. Greg

     /  October 2, 2015

    Also, some big news regarding normally secret battery prices and the release of the Bolt car. GM’s CEO, a company if which I’m no particular fan, had announced the advent of the everyman’s electric car called the Bolt. She revealed that it will be sold late next year, earlier than expected! and that battery cells prices have reached $145 KWh which is a big deal. It means like solar beating natural gas in price that electric cars can take ICE cars head on and profitably for a big company and therefore are mass producible. Necessary, if we want to kill the market for petroleum at large scales (and clean up or air).
    http://insideevs.com/gm-chevrolet-bolt-for-2016-145kwh-cell-cost-volt-margin-improves-3500/

    Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 2, 2015

      This is wonderful, Greg. Thanks for the pointer. I wonder what its range will be.

      Reply
      • Greg

         /  October 2, 2015

        Their original announcement is that this is 200 mile+ car for 35K or less.

        Reply
  50. Colorado Bob

     /  October 3, 2015

    World’s oldest rainforests burn as Jokowi scales back promises

    JAKARTA, Indonesia – Having promised to extinguish forest fires in Riau in western Indonesia by early October, President Joko Widodo jetted into Sumatra island last week for a progress check. The smoke was so thick his plane couldn’t land, forcing him back to the capital.

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-wp-blm-indonesia-9410320a-68f7-11e5-bdb6-6861f4521205-20151002-story.html

    Reply
  51. redskylite

     /  October 3, 2015

    It is sad and worrying that the world’s oldest rain-forests are suffering in the name of the palm oil business. The fires may be extinguished by November if the rains come it seems.

    Deutsche Welle :-

    “Alarm as haze from Indonesian fires spreads in Southeast Asia”

    On Thursday, Indonesia’s disaster chief, Willem Rampangilei, turned down a Singaporean offer to help by saying “everything was under control” and that he believed rains would arrive by early November.

    http://www.dw.com/en/alarm-as-haze-from-indonesian-fires-spreads-in-southeast-asia/a-18756909

    Reply
    • – Ah, a Quantitative Precipitation Forecast clairvoyant. Just let it burn then burn some more.
      I don’t think, or believe, so.

      Reply
  52. LAM78

     /  October 3, 2015

    While the US East Coast was spared from Joaquin, there is a distinct possibility that Hawaii may be hit by a TC in the next week or so. Two invests in the Central Pacific have 90% and 100% chance to form during the next 48 hours. If the TC would hit the state, it would most likely be the Big Island which will take the battle. So, let’s see if Hawaii can dodge another bullet!

    Reply
  53. Colorado Bob

     /  October 3, 2015

    Columbia, SC (WLTX) – The Midlands of South Carolina is expecting rainfall totals and flooding not seen since forecasters began keeping records over 125 years ago.

    http://www.wfmynews2.com/story/weather/2015/10/03/rain-begins-across-sc-could-lead-record-flooding/73266588/

    Reply
  54. redskylite

     /  October 3, 2015

    Hurricane Joaquin – ship in trouble, missing – hope they weather the storm

    For more than 36 hours, there’s been no word from, and no sign of, the U.S.-flagged container ship El Faro.

    That means no news on what’s happened to the 28 Americans and five Poles aboard, faced with the full fury of Hurricane Joaquin and its up to 150 mph gusts, 30-foot waves and potentially 25 inches of rain.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/02/us/hurricane-joaquin/index.html

    Reply
  55. Colorado Bob

     /  October 3, 2015

    Around 22 million Americans were under flood watches early Saturday as a “once every 200 years” rainfall event was drenching South Carolina — and the worst looked yet to come.

    As much as 12 inches of rain fell overnight in Wilmington, North Carolina, and numerous water rescues were reported. Heavy rain was expected over cities including Charleston, Columbia and Charlotte.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/flash-floods-once-every-200-years-rainfall-event-loom-south-n438041

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  October 3, 2015

      NBC News meteorologist Bill Karins said the National Weather Service was referring to the drenching facing South Carolina this weekend as a “once in 200 years rainfall event” — and it had potential to be as bad as a once every 500 years storm.

      The NWS added that “record rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding” were possible through Sunday. Up to 15 inches of rain were possible in some parts of the Carolinas, according to forecasters.

      Reply
  56. Colorado Bob

     /  October 3, 2015

    NOAA Scientists Think Guadalupe Fur Seal’s Mortality Event Is Tied To Warmer Climate

    Ever since January 2015, shores in central California have served as haven for about 80 stranded Guadalupe fur seals. The NOAA (US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has stated that the occurrences have been an ‘unusual mortality event’ and hence is in need of speedy action; otherwise, it could pave the way for the species’ population demise.

    The stranding rate was 8 times greater than normal as in the last two decades — the average annual rate is between 10 and 12 strandings. The 2015 stranding statistics will reveal that 42 fur seals are found dead. During the time of finding, 38 fur seals were alive, but just 11 had managed to survive. The survivors were moved to rehabilitation and were eventually released.

    http://www.dailytimesgazette.com/noaa-scientists-think-guadalupe-fur-seals-mortality-event-is-tied-to-warmer-climate/29051/

    Reply
    • – UME : ‘unusual mortality event’

      Language is evolving — one good sign. It must be reserved for wildlife etc.
      Human losses are now defined by ‘mass casualty events’.

      Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 3, 2015

        “unusual mortality event.” Poor scientists. They have to remain poised at all times.

        Reply
      • rustj2015

         /  October 4, 2015

        ” UME : ‘unusual mortality event’ ”
        “unusual” may apply to observation of such an event as well as to prediction of one.
        what a long strange trip…

        Reply
  57. Maria

     /  October 3, 2015

    OT: El Niño, +2.44. Wow.

    Reply
  58. Maria

     /  October 3, 2015

    From PBS.org/Nova:

    Fact: The total energy released through cloud and rain formation in an average hurricane is equivalent to 200 times the worldwide electrical generating capacity.

    Reply
  59. – Anthropogenic nutrients, w/ nitrogen being the common thread, still entering the ecosystems, add in GW — and the algae keeps growing.
    How much mixing, diluting, spreading etc will result from the massive rainfall inland — or the storm surges, etc. on the coast?

    Toxic algae bloom now stretches 650 miles along Ohio river

    Ohioans are used to hearing about toxic algae forming on Erie, Buckeye and other lakes across the state each summer. But not the Ohio River, which currently has a bloom nearly 650 miles long.

    “It’s unprecedented,” said Greg Youngstrom, an environmental specialist…

    After a rainy June and July, August was mostly dry. The river, laden with runoff from the land that surrounds its watershed in New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio, slowed almost to standstill.

    http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2015/10/03/algae-along-the-ohio.html

    Reply
  60. – ‘Disaster Resilience Competition’.

    Alaska Seeks Federal Money to Move a Village Threatened by Climate Change

    THE ASSOCIATED PRESS OCT. 3, 2015

    ANCHORAGE — One of the most eroded Native Alaskan villages on the state’s coast is being considered as a possible national model for moving entire communities whose futures are threatened by natural disasters escalated by climate change.

    The state is hoping to kick-start an exodus from the village of Newtok, about 500 miles west of Anchorage, through a national competition for states and local governments vying for a slice of nearly $1 billion in grants to be awarded by the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development. The agency’s National Disaster Resilience Competition is being promoted as an effort to address climate change and extreme weather.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/04/us/alaska-seeks-federal-money-to-move-a-village-threatened-by-climate-change.html?_r=0

    Reply
    • – The AP: “natural disasters escalated by climate change.”
      This phrase has some reality based ‘punch’ to it.
      I wonder if it’s the product of the journalist or editors.

      Reply
      • rustj2015

         /  October 4, 2015

        I’d say, give editors credit for backing their reporters. Any and all qualifiers may be inserted, based on rational information.

        Reply
  61. The world’s largest digital camera is about to be built on top of a mountain in Chile — here’s what it will look like

    There is currently a gigantic camera being built in the mountains of Chile, in the foothills of the Andes, that will be like nothing we’ve ever seen before. While the new iPhone 6S camera may have just upgraded from eight megapixels to 12, this will have a whopping 3,200 megapixels — making it a 3.2 billion pixel camera.

    Named the LSST, or the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, it is set to be the largest camera in the world. Scheduled to be finished in 2019, it will combine a telescope, mirror, camera, data system, and survey technology.

    – businessinsider.com/worlds-largest
    Oct. 1, 2015,

    Reply
    • Apneaman

       /  October 3, 2015

      Exactly the kind of massively resource intense toy we need as we approach global collapse. This shit and olympic games and tax payer funded sports stadiums and grand skyscrapers is what we will do right up to the end. More science? Won’t change anything.

      Reply
      • rustj2015

         /  October 4, 2015

        I’d suggest this:
        “There’s no reason to believe we’ve reached the limit of moral perception.” Noam Chomsky and therefore other sciences proceed.

        Reply
      • Tom

         /  October 4, 2015

        Apneaman: i think the global economic collapse and the environmental decline will prevent this project and many others around the world from occurring. One that is of prime concern – the decommissioning of the world’s >400 nuke plants before the shtf – is not only not even in the plans, they’re still beginning construction on MORE! [Guaranteeing the demise of all life on the planet via man-made radiation in addition to everything else.]

        Reply
      • PlazaRed

         /  October 4, 2015

        Something has to be seen to be done to keep peoples minds off what is really going on!
        As long a spending is not curtailed then everything can just keep chugging along, a bit like the Titanic that was unsinkable?

        Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 4, 2015

      Great find, DT. I did a bit of googling and also learned that it will be open access.

      One of the cooler aspects of the LSST project is that it will be made available to anyone with a computer, including students and the public.

      “The broad range of science enabled by the LSST survey will change our understanding of the dynamic universe on timescales ranging from its earliest moments after the Big Bang, to the motions of asteroids in the solar system today,” LSST Director Steven Kahnin said a statement. “The open nature of our data products means that the public will have the opportunity to share in this exciting adventure along with the scientific community.”

      http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/dvorsky20150917

      Reply
  62. Colorado Bob

     /  October 4, 2015

    dtlange –

    Your posts about nitrogen maybe be a voice in the wilderness, but I for one , think they are one of the most important things we all see here.

    We all know the old cliche’ about the circle of life, but they are very real . The sun comes up, the carbon cycle begins. It interfaces with nitrogen cycle, made possible by the hydro-logical cycle, all made possible by the short lives of trillions and trillions of fungi, algae, and bacteria.
    Our dumping of all this carbon, and nitrogen into the cycle is going to create a whole new chemistry experiment, something never seen before in the record. And it is driving all those short lives of trillions and trillions of fungi, algae, and bacteria.

    Once again the old Jefferson Airplane line –

    It’s a wild time, I’m doing things that don’t have a name yet.

    Tonight, a 500 year event is occurring in the one of the most dense populations of hogs in the world. That means there are huge lagoons of pig manure that are in danger of over topping their banks. That means huge amounts of nitrogen enter the streams and rivers Along with an old bomb plant in South Carolina , which was never engineered for this amount of rain.

    Once again the old Jefferson Airplane line –

    It’s a wild time, I’m doing things that don’t have a name yet.

    Jefferson Airplane – Wild Tyme

    Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 4, 2015

      CB and DT Your posts about nitrogen maybe be a voice in the wilderness, but I for one , think they are one of the most important things we all see here.

      I agree…I learn so much from them since my lurking days. I’m confused re: how much to engage, respond to posts. As you can see, sometimes I do—but when I do, I’m never quite sure how Robert feels about a thread extending or does he want it to be more posting of events with occasional inevitable discussion that ensues.

      Can you or Robert help me out on this? AT times I wish there were a “like” button for posts for which you don’t have anything to add but want to acknowledge the poster….ahh, the human trials of communication in the virtual world. This thought latter free associated itself to this song.

      Reply
    • – Thanks, Bob.

      I just wish it (the N) wasn’t so.
      As I watch the society around me (us), it is the most obvious and simple that most astounds and confuses.
      N is everywhere — wet, dry, flowing, blowing whether applied or by indirect combustion, etc.
      And yes, there are berms holding tons of pig-shit etc, ready to breach as we speak.
      I will keep hammering away at it like a gong. There is much more to report, and more will surely make its presence felt.
      Am weighing other options for ‘getting the word out’ since it (N) is so visible and known.
      With so much nutrient N, moisture, and particulate in the atmosphere — I wonder if we will get an atmospheric algal bloom. Or some aerosol green slime event the aviators can’t deny.
      Your valuable views and insights are appreciated.

      But — back to those other aviators of music and social conscience: ‘The Airplane’.

      “Snow cuts loose from the frozen
      Until it joins with the African sea
      In moving it changes its cold and its name
      The reason I come and go is the same
      animal game for me
      you call it rain
      but the human name
      Doesn’t mean shit to a tree
      If you don’t mind heat in your river and…

      Jefferson Airplane – Eskimo Blue Day

      Reply
    • Ps: I’m grateful to Robert that RS is here to share information of great concern.
      Thanks, Robert.🙂

      Reply
  63. Colorado Bob

     /  October 4, 2015

    It’s a wild time, I’m doing things that don’t have a name yet.

    Reply
  64. Colorado Bob

     /  October 4, 2015

    We’ll alll see about how they feel about :”big government aid” , after this event cleans their clock.

    Reply
  65. Colorado Bob

     /  October 4, 2015

    I have never forgiven South Carolina , it is too small to be a nation , and too large to be be an insane asylum.

    Now they all get a dose of record SST’s ,

    Trust me, climate deniers are coming ” Jesus” to tonight in South Carolina.

    Reply
  66. Apneaman

     /  October 4, 2015

    Baltimore Preparing For Hurricane Joaquin By Adding Second Layer Of Plywood To Shuttered Small Businesses

    “BALTIMORE—Warning that the storm could batter the East Coast with 80-mile-per-hour winds and heavy rain, Baltimore officials confirmed Friday that residents were preparing for Hurricane Joaquin by adding a second layer of plywood to the city’s shuttered small businesses. “A tropical storm as severe as this can cause considerable damage, so we’re urging residents to take precautionary measures by covering boarded-up windows and doors of vacant storefronts with an additional protective layer of plywood or plastic sheeting,” said city spokesman Jim D’Amico, adding that extra tarps should also be placed over the ones already covering any furniture or other large items that went unclaimed by creditors. “Emergency crews are working around the clock to provide further flood protection by adding sandbags to the mounds of debris and garbage that were already piled up outside these failed businesses. And, thankfully, most of these buildings had their utility services cut off months or years ago, so we’re way ahead of the game there.” D’Amico told reporters that the city’s evacuation efforts had been greatly aided by the fact that most of the population had long since fled from high-storm-risk areas due to urban blight.”

    http://www.theonion.com/article/baltimore-preparing-hurricane-joaquin-adding-secon-51454

    Reply
    • redskylite

       /  October 4, 2015

      Thanks Spike for sharing, this is the new normal, we are seeing more and more from all over the world. I never saw so many of these events in my entire life (and I am approaching 70). Enough lets stop punishing ourselves in the name of business and investments . . .. it’s not working
      http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34437228

      Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 4, 2015

        I agree skylite–one event after another, sometimes several at the same time..I asked Robert earlier this summer if I’m perceiving this increase because I’m paying more attention and he said, no–that this year has been exceptional.

        Reply
    • PlazaRed

       /  October 4, 2015

      As of 9 pm Sunday evening the confirmed death toll is up to 17.
      Damage looks very bad and the death toll will probably rise.

      Reply
      • PlazaRed

         /  October 4, 2015

        The south of France has received about 200 litres of rain per square meter, or about 8 inches, 20 centimetres.
        The rains were from thunder storms and the worst since 1990, the videos of the flooding show that water was several feet or about 2 meters up the sides of buildings, lots of underground garages flooded. The news said that a lot of people were drowned trying to remove vehicles from garages.

        Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 5, 2015

        Thanks so much for this update, PR. What a nightmare.

        Reply
    • Spike

       /  October 6, 2015

      Local media report today – rainfall amounts clearly smashed the previous record to bits:

      On 3 October Cannes saw the heaviest amount of rainfall on the Riviera with 196mm precipitation in total – 175mm in just two hours and 106mm in one hour alone. The second largest amount of rain fell in Mandelieu-la-Napoule (159mm), followed by Antibes (128mm), Nice (109mm), Valbonne Sophia-Antipolis (107mm) and Chateauneuf-Grasse (90mm).

      Previously the heaviest flash flood on record in the region was in Nice in 1998 when 63mm of precipitation was recorded in one hour.

      “We have lived through an apocalyptic situation that we have never experienced before,” Eric Ciotti, president of the Alpes-Maritimes department, commented on Twitter on Sunday

      Reply
  67. Maria

     /  October 4, 2015

    Guatemala got hit with disastrous weather too..it looks like it was less about total rainfall amounts than the unlucky location at the bottom of a canyon of this Guatemala City suburb..

    Landslide in Guatemala Kills 86, Leaves 500+ Missing

    One of the deadliest weather disasters of 2015 occurred in a suburb of Guatemala City, Guatemala on Thursday night, October 1, when a massive landslide of waterlogged earth and debris tore through the village of El Cambray II, in the municipality of Santa Catarina Pinula, destroying or damaging 125 homes. At least 86 were killed, and over 500 people were feared missing as of Sunday morning. According to Norman Avila of climaya.com, who maintains a personal weather station a few miles from the disaster site, the rains over the past three weeks in the region were not exceptional–6.72″ during the period September 12 – October 1, and only 0.02″ the day of the disaster.

    More at link.
    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3140

    Reply
  68. – The Weather Channel quoted an unnamed scientist as saying, “New Jersey is experiencing its longest sustained wind event in history”.

    Reply
  69. James Burton

     /  October 4, 2015

    The UK is bracing for these storms to cross the Atlantic and do their evil business over Britain. Meaning of course heavy rains and wind events over a protracted period. As climate has changed, the UK has been sort of a ground zero for rain and wind events. They come in off the Atlantic with greater frequency. Similar patterns occurred in the deep past, flooding out the Saxons in their homelands, forcing their move and take over of Britain. Later in the 1300’s similar patterns ruined crops all over Western Europe and flooded the reclaimed lands of Holland. Setting up years of famine and social changes.
    The UK and Western Europe are uniquely placed to be affected by climate change. If the conveyor belt of currents begins slowing, as it has already been proven, then Western Europe will be in for serious climate disruptions.

    Reply
    • Syd Bridges

       /  October 4, 2015

      Don’t worry, James. David Cameron (Eton and Oxford: Philosophy, Politics, and Economics) and his Port-swilling chums of the Bullingdon Club, know so much more about what’s going on than these scientific chappies, who are mostly lower-class northerners anyway. He is advised by top climatologists like Nigel “Lord” Lawson, Christopher “Lord” Moncton, David Rose, James Delingpole, and Benny Peiser. As a Brit, I’m not worried personally about the next two weeks weather in the UK, as I’m living in Colorado at the moment. But I do worry for my family and friends.

      Reply
      • Mblanc

         /  October 4, 2015

        Cameron is making a right pigs ear of it…

        No, wait… it’s not an ear!

        Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  October 5, 2015

      Ah well solidarity with the US is important
      http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/04/french-riviera-floods-leave-16-dead-and-trail-of-destruction

      The French Riviera is starting to cop it every couple of years

      On the Nice Matin website, a school assistant called Marie, 32, described how she saved a father and his two children who were stuck in their car.

      “I heard cries and waded towards the car, which was stuck. It’s headlights were under water. I had water up to my bottom and there was a lot of current. Inside the car was a father and two children who couldn’t have been more than seven and nine. They were trapped. The water was up to the windows and it was impossible to open the door. The motor had stalled and there was no electricity to open the electric windows. We had to force them open. The children were crying in a panic.”

      Shelley Ward, a British actor living in the Côte d’Azur, said: “There were hailstones like ice cubes and torrential horizontal rain in Antibes last [Saturday] night. On the roads I saw five accidents, trees were down and rocks and gravel spattered on the roads. There was a bus across the carriageway and scores of cars abandoned by the side of the road.

      Reply
  70. – VW and atmospheric N; “.. evading nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions regulations.
    – rsc.org/chemistryworld/2015/09/

    The Guardian 10/04

    Car emissions test body receives 70% of cash from motor industry
    Vehicle Certification Agency accused of a conflict of interest after VW scandal

    …According to its latest annual report, the Vehicle Certification Agency receives 69.91% of its income from car manufacturers, who pay it to certify that their vehicles are meeting emissions and safety standards.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/04/vw-scandal-emissions-test-body-conflict-of-interest-accusation?CMP=ema_565a

    Reply
    • Chemistry at heart of VW emissions cheating
      28 September 2015

      Volkswagen has been caught out evading nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions regulations, but precisely how it did so and why is still unclear. With the company set to recall millions of cars in the US and Europe, it is uncertain if the engines affected by the ‘defeat device’ can be fixed. Certain components may fail when proper emission controls are switched on, say some experts.

      Nitrogen dioxide and nitric oxide pollution is linked to serious health problems and contributes to the formation of harmful particles and ground level ozone. Cities around the world have struggled to deal with high NOx levels…

      NOx are an inevitable consequence of high temperature combustion; once temperatures exceed 2000°C, nitrogen and oxygen will react to form these oxides. Diesel ignites when compressed in an engine, so it runs ‘lean’, meaning there’s a high air to fuel ratio. This allows the diesel to burn more completely, but makes it more difficult to deal with NOx.

      http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/2015/09/vw-volkswagen-emission-cheating

      Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 5, 2015

      From your link, DT: According to research compiled by Adac, Europe’s largest motoring organisation, diesel cars from Renault, Nissan, Hyundai, Citroën, Fiat, Volvo and other manufacturers have also been found to emit substantially higher levels of pollution under more realistic driving conditions. There is no suggestion of cheating, but only a quarter of the 79 cars Adac tested matched official results on the existing EU test.

      That”s incredible….We run into this concern with the FDA–pharma and device companies pay a fee for applications. It totals out to roughly $500million…which covers the entire cost of their drug approval division. FDA’s net budget is about $4billion.

      The good news is that in ’08,’09/’10 the FDA has approved a lower percentage of applications from year to year. They have become more strict over years. The bad news is that they need more money and staff to properly assure out food safety. Ouch. Very hard fro them to squeeze money out of Congress.
      http://blogs.plos.org/workinprogress/2012/01/25/how-much-money-do-drug-companies-pay-the-fda/

      Reply
  71. – Looking back at black soot aerosol pollution in Santa Barbara, CA 2011. Here’s a revealing video agitprop gathering dust on Youtube. It’s about finding soot or traffic dust, and how to create a mostly VOC type solvent by merely rubbing some moisture (human saliva) on aerosol fallout (deposition) inn a pubic location. Some locations are under cover and not exposed to direct vertical fallout — but are exposed to ambient AP.

    THE USA TODAY CALIFORNIA SANTA BARBARA 2011

    Reply
  72. File under: Koch, Koch Industries (formerly Koch Nitrogen), the American Legislative Exchange Council, Carly Fiorina (designated “climate-fossil fuel-environmental idiot from California”) and American politics.

    ‘Koch Brothers, Mega Donors Warm To Carly Fiorina
    Reuters 10/04

    NEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters) – Carly Fiorina has emerged as the Republican candidate of the moment in conservative fundraising circles, drawing the notice of the billionaire Koch brothers and other wealthy donors who could instantly remake her shoestring presidential campaign.

    She has now moved to the short list of candidates the Kochs may support with their reported $1 billion war chest, the sources said. Florida Senator Marco Rubio is among those on the coveted list, the sources said.

    A spokesman for the Kochs declined to comment

    Other politically powerful mega donors are also lining up.

    Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens hosted a packed luncheon at a posh Dallas venue for Fiorina in late September, while venture capitalist Tom Perkins is planning a fundraising gala in California in the next few months.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/koch-brothers-mega-donors-warm-to-carly-fiorina_561187d0e4b0dd85030c6833

    Reply
  73. Doug

     /  October 4, 2015

    DumbAss Nikki Haley, Republican (of course) Governor of South Carolina understands this is a 1 in a 1000 year event, (actually she doesn’t, she thinks that means it hasn’t happened in a 1000 years. Not that statistically it would be expected to happen once every thousand years)
    But of course she is a climate change denier. And as Colorado Bob said, they LOVE big government AFTER they get struck.

    Check out this article from USA TODAY:

    Flooding sweeps East amid ‘mind-boggling’ rains

    http://usat.ly/1LbxpAc

    Reply
    • Doug

       /  October 4, 2015

      Hey Nikki, “Climate Always Changes” so stop your whining, and pull up your boot straps!

      Reply
  74. Greg

     /  October 5, 2015

    This is a new one –“astronomical” to describe the, in some places, 1-1000 year, still evolving tonight, flooding in South Carolina. We are running out of words.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/05/us/south-carolina-residents-told-to-stay-home-as-rain-continues-to-pound-region.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

    Reply
  75. Andy in SD

     /  October 5, 2015

    I wonder how much of the overburden of precipitation in SC is due to expanded atmospheric loading due to temperature anomalies. The SSTA seems to have created the ability for cyclonic action in the Atlantic during El Nino.

    My best to anyone in the rains path. Be safe.

    Reply
  76. Maria

     /  October 5, 2015

    Godzilla Niño and the Blob: How Weather Cycles and Ocean Temperatures Mask Global Warming

    Worth the read, imo. Comprehensive. The author delves into why the actual warming is higher than the numbers tell us. Interestingly, the he uses the term “climate change counter movement” in reference the Kochs, et al. who fund the denial of it. He advocates carbon capture–crunches some interesting numbers to support the 2+Trillion dollar cost by comparing, for example, how much we spend on health care in one year, sick leave days, etc.

    The warming must be going somewhere, and it is. It is being masked by massive ocean currents sucking heat out of the atmosphere in quantities significantly larger than before. (9) It is also hidden in polar regions where warming is double to triple the average global rate. (10)

    The reason warming is hidden at the poles is that there are very few weather stations in the polar regions. The dearth of weather information from polar regions is so large that the United Kingdom’s national meteorological organization (UK Met Office) completely ignores the polar regions when evaluating global temperature, or at least they did until recently.

    http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/33078-godzilla-nino-and-the-blob-how-weather-cycles-and-ocean-temperatures-mask-global-warming

    Reply
  77. Abel Adamski

     /  October 5, 2015

    Check out the catastrophic carnage in Europe also
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/04/french-riviera-floods-leave-16-dead-and-trail-of-destruction

    François Gourant of the French weather station Météo France, said: “It’s difficult to say why it happened at this particular time in this particular place. We can predict storms and flooding, but not of this size or suddeness.”

    Gourant said an unprecedented 195mm of rain fell in Cannes, 107mm in one hour. The previous record was 70mm in an hour.

    “We have no explanations why it happened … the region is used to flooding. It’s an unusual phenomenom,” Gourant added.

    Victims, who described how they had lost everything in just 10 minutes, used stronger words to describe their experience and the devastation: catastrophe, the “end of the world” and apocalypse.

    Reply
    • REAL TIME TERMINOLOGY HEADLINE WORTHY: “…the size or suddeness… no explanations… lost everything in just 10 minutes…devastation: catastrophe.”

      Reply
  78. Colorado Bob

     /  October 5, 2015

    In the ‘new North,’ forest fires are permanently altering the landscape

    Scientists are warning that intense wildfires in the northernmost areas of North America are changing the composition of the tundra ecosystem, degrading permafrost and contributing to a northward migration of trees, all of which have serious implications for the future of the climate.

    http://www.pri.org/stories/2015-10-03/new-north-forest-fires-are-permanently-altering-landscape

    Reply
  79. Ouse M.D.

     /  October 5, 2015

    On cci- reanalyzer, today:
    World: +1,02 C
    Northern Hemisphere: +1,16 C
    corrected to 20th century baseline

    http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/

    Reply
  80. islandraider

     /  October 5, 2015

    Earth:Null School worth a look today, as well. Been watching the ongoing battle between the dying cyclones as they spin northward & attack the RRR. Most times they seen to get shuttled west of the high, the up over the top. Right now, a big low (not listed as a cyclone at this point on Wunderground) seems to be splitting the high in half, with most of the high being squished west over the coming days & the low becomes a massive, MASSIVE thing about 4 days out. On Null School, you can use the >> symbol to look at the coming days’ forecast. I also like to have the overlay looking at MSLP. Then, you can click on any part of the globe & get pressure values for that area.

    Is this the end of the RRR? Or will the ridge reform back in the Gulf of Alaska?

    Link: http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/10/08/1500Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-176.48,23.83,405

    Reply
  81. – Storms – high water – containment breaches – nitrogen & toxic sludges:
    – Toxic “Super Fund” sites — terrible descriptor centered around the monetary to denote a sleeping anthropogenic environmental catastrophe. “SUPERFUND” is a benign and therefore meaningless term.
    But as CC storms and deluges impact our lands and rivers, here’s a map of some consequence to consider. It, or others like it, should provide a nice overlay for CC weather events, etc.

    ECOWATCH:

    Do You Live Near One of the 1,300 Most Toxic Sites in America?

    More than 1,300 Superfund sites are littered across the U.S. These are the places that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has deemed so contaminated with hazardous waste that they need long-term response plans to deal with the clean up. You might imagine these sites to be bubbling with bright green and orange goo, but most are much more inconspicuous and their whereabouts aren’t always obvious to the public.

    So media artist Brooke Singer decided to do something about it. Her new website, ToxicSites, features an interactive map, detailing all existing Superfund sites and updated in real-time as the EPA adds more data.

    A screenshot of the interactive map Brooke Singer developed for ToxicSites. Photo credit: ToxicSites.us

    Reply
  82. – Weather and Russian foreign policy:

    State TV broadcasts weather report that analyses flying conditions for Russia’s fighter jets and shows aerial footage of recent bombing raids

    Perfect conditions for airstrikes on Syria, says weather forecaster on Russian TV
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/05/perfect-weather-for-airstrikes-russian-tv-forecast-sets-sights-on-syria?CMP=ema_565a

    Reply
  83. rustj2015

     /  October 5, 2015

    Regional weather watchers might be interested in signing up for this web exchange:
    The North American Monsoon: It’s What Makes Summer Weather Interesting in the Southwestern United States!
    http://www.cocorahs.org/Content.aspx?page=wxtalk

    Reply
  84. – Barrow, AK

    Barrow’s eroding coastline reveals human bones
    Kamala Kelkar October 4, 2015

    As Arctic Ocean waves from summer and fall storms eat away at Barrow’s bluffs, they take land from the living — and sometimes they expose the dead.

    Last month, local archaeologist Anne Jensen anchored herself to two firefighters and rappelled down a mound being eroded by those waves. She found bones and the remains of a collapsed underground house about to break free from the dirt.

    The coastline of Alaska’s North Slope is eroding at some of the fastest rates in the nation, and windy summer and fall storms are a bigger threat than in the past because sea ice is retreating for longer periods, said John Lingaas, a Fairbanks-based National Weather Service meteorologist.

    “The thing that allows the storms to be as impactful as they are is that the edge of the ice is quite a ways away, and we’ve got more open water during the open-water time,” Lingaas said. “Two months from now when it’s all iced in, you can have storm after storm after storm. The ice has moved in and it’s protecting the coastline. It’s another windy storm and all, but it’s not producing waves that affect the erosion.”
    http://www.adn.com/article/20151004/barrows-eroding-coastline-reveals-human-bones

    Reply
  85. Maria

     /  October 5, 2015

    Australia’s El Niño update. NOAA’s update due this Thursday.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

    Reply
  86. doug

     /  October 5, 2015

    Obama had on his reading list this Summer “The Sixth Extinction” by Elizabeth Kolbert. He really does get the science behind global warming and understands what peril we are in.

    But then he goes and endorses the TPP, which would grease the wheels for more international trade at a time when people like Kevin Anderson make the case that the only way we can stay below 2 degrees, is to pursue a anti-growth strategy. And Think Progress has some reactions to the TPP from climate activists here: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/10/05/3709061/tpp-agreement-reached-environmental-concerns-remain/

    How Obama can understand climate science, yet endorse things he must know would put us over 2 degrees, is frankly War Crimes trials kind of stuff. Yeah I know he has done more on climate than his predecessors. So what?

    His “ability” to compartmentalize is frankly psychopathic. The Compartmentalizer in Chief. This is why I never vote for Republicans or Democrats.

    I don’t want blood on my hands.

    And in voting always for the Green Party, I’ve never regretted a single vote.

    Reply
  87. islandraider

     /  October 5, 2015

    NOAA updates on El Nino every Monday here:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
    Scroll down a bit & click on the link that reads: “Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation (PDF)”

    Also, it appears that in today’s ENSO update, NOAA released the ONI value for the July – September period. From the pdf: “The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region… It is one index that helps to place current events into a historical perspective.”

    The ONI for July to September 2015 is 1.5C. This is up from the June to August period when the ONI was 1.2C. It is below the 1997 value of 1.7C. 1997 peaked at 2.3C. The current anomaly/SST departures for the Nino 3.4 region is 2.4, so the ONI will likely keep growing and has a reasonable chance to match or exceed the 1997 value. Weather weirding will likely follow suit. This would probably be an apt time to make a statement about holding onto one’s hat & breakfast guests.

    I think the next Australian ENSO wrap up is due October 13. I will provide a link in the following post.

    Stay safe out there!

    Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 5, 2015

      Ya, Islandraider, they put the weekly data but NOAA’s ENSO blog gives a complete analysis and predictions(this, key difference, I believe) along with the data on the 2nd Thursday of the month. It’s my understanding(could be wrong?) that they prefer not to put out a formal analysis/prediction on the week-to-week variabilities.

      https://www.climate.gov/news-features/department/enso-blog

      Reply
      • islandraider

         /  October 5, 2015

        Thanks Maria. I was not aware of the blog. I think I am approaching information overload…

        Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 5, 2015

      I think I am approaching information overload… Me too. Because it directly impacts me, I can’t help myself at this point.

      Reply
  88. islandraider

     /  October 5, 2015

    Australian Bureau of Meteorology, ENSO Wrap-Up can be found here:

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

    Next update: October 13.

    Reply
  89. Syd Bridges

     /  October 5, 2015

    In reference to Maria’s post above, I see that NOAA is putting the Nino 3.4 region at 2.4 deg C this week.

    Reply
  90. Thomas S Bianchi, Professor of Geology, University of Florida:

    “What you have not likely heard about concerns an interesting twist regarding a certain type of organic matter stored in permafrost, which scientists have been talking about for the past decade. It is called yedoma, and is generally defined as organic-rich (about 2% by mass) Pleistocene-age permafrost comprised of 50% to 90% ice, by volume. Yedoma is stored in tens to hundreds of meters of permafrost in the Arctic.

    We and others have recently shown that as this permafrost thaws, yedoma is released to the surrounding soils and some gets transported by rivers from land to the Arctic Ocean.

    While most scientists would have predicted that this very old organic matter would not be very digestible to modern-day organisms, such as bacteria, it turns out that it is extremely “fresh” in its composition and consequently highly bio-available to microbes.

    This, it turns out, has big implications for permafrost and global warming because this process produces another greenhouse gas: carbon dioxide.”

    http://theconversation.com/permafrost-eating-bacteria-a-new-twist-on-thawing-arctic-and-global-warming-47252

    Reply
  91. Abel Adamski

     /  October 5, 2015

    It is a wide spread wildness we face
    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/seven-dead-as-southern/2169908.html.

    Multiple events in China in The most polluted industrial areas

    Reply
  92. – Algae appears to have some ‘unique’ capabilities:

    ‘Algae was genetically designed to take over the world (sort of)’

    One of Nature’s greatest secrets, how ocean slime turned the world green with vegetation, has been uncovered by scientists.

    Experts have discovered that ancient algae were already genetically programmed to survive out of water before colonising the land and evolving into the plants that transformed life on Earth. The big change 450 million years ago dramatically altered the global climate and set the stage for the story of terrestrial evolution that ultimately led to the human race.

    ,,,Our discovery shows for the first time that the algae already knew how to survive on land while it was still in the water. Without the development of this pre-adapted capability in algae, the earth could be a very different place today.

    http://www.irishexaminer.com/examviral/science-world/algae-was-genetically-designed-to-take-over-the-world-sort-of-357652.html

    Reply
  93. – Richard Alley may have lectures may have been posted here before but I don’t remember this one.It’s an in formative reminder of CC & CO2 in scale — and only 24 min long.

    Published on Jun 1, 2015
    National Academy of Sciences
    NAS member Richard Alley presents on 4.6 Billion Years of Earth’s Climate History: The Role of CO2, during the Symposium—Earths, Moons, Mars & Stars at the National Academy of Sciences 152nd Annual Meeting.

    Reply
  94. – Joaquin: this one shows the rainfall totals across the region as they happened.

    Published on Oct 5, 2015

    NASA/JAXA’s GPM satellite measured record rainfall that fell over the Carolinas from September 26 to October 5 from a plume of moisture from Hurricane Joaquin when it was located over the Bahamas and moved to Bermuda. The IMERG showed highest rainfall totals near 1,000 mm (39.3 inches) in a small area of South Carolina and rainfall between 700 and 900 mm (27.5 and 37.4 inches) over a large area of South Carolina. Credit: SSAI/NASA/JAXA, Hal Pierce

    Reply
    • – This can also be downloaded and viewed at a slower speed.

      Reply
    • – Joaquin: “… a 0.1% chance of such an intense storm occurring in any year.”

      . South Carolina floods: climate change intensified conditions, scientists say

      ‘Once-in-a-thousand year’ storm along coastline a consequence of the extreme supply of moisture streaming in from hurricane Joaquin

      …, another case where climate change worsened the effects of an already extreme meteorological event,” said Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University.

      Mann said hurricane Joaquin intensified in the tropical Atlantic, which is experiencing record sea-surface temperatures. These temperatures helped the hurricane strengthen quickly and unusually warm, wet air fed it even more. That moisture turned into the record rainfall which fell on the Carolinas.

      “In this case, we’re seeing once-in-a-thousand year flooding along the South Carolina coastline as a consequence of the extreme supply of moisture streaming in from hurricane Joaquin,” Mann said.

      The “once-in-a-thousand” phrase does not mean the storm occurs once every 1,000 years, but rather that there is a 0.1% chance of such an intense storm occurring in any year.
      http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/oct/05/south-carolina-floods-climate-change

      Reply
  95. – Watch out for Congressional “witch” hunts for truth tellers.

    ‘Climate scientist requesting federal investigation feels heat from House Republicans’

    A scientist who helped organize a call for a federal investigation of the fossil fuel industry—for allegedly orchestrating a cover-up of climate change dangers—has himself become the target of a congressional probe.

    Last week, Representative Lamar Smith (R–TX), the chairman of the science panel of the House of Representatives, announced plans to investigate a nonprofit research group led by climate scientist Jagadish Shukla of George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. He is the lead signer of a letter to White House officials that urges the use of an antiracketeering law to crack down on energy firms that have funded efforts to raise doubts about climate science.

    In a 1 October letter, Smith asked Shukla, who is director of the independent Institute of Global Environment and Society (IGES) in Rockville, Maryland, to preserve all of the “email, electronic documents, and data” that the institute has created since 2009.

    http://news.sciencemag.org/policy/2015/10/turnabout-house-republicans-say-they-ll-investigate-climate-scientist-requesting

    Reply
  96. Apneaman

     /  October 6, 2015

    A Simpler Way to Estimate the Feedback Between Permafrost Carbon and Climate

    http://newscenter.lbl.gov/2015/10/05/permafrost-carbon-climate/

    Reply
  97. rustj2015

     /  October 6, 2015

    If this is a good equation, looks like the US and Canada have the most permafrost soil carbon. I’d like another look at that warning about what’s going on in permafrost melt.

    Reply
  98. Abel Adamski

     /  October 6, 2015

    I hope I am not out of line, but Robert is going through a challenging time, the bills don’t go away. I understand that US medical assistance is expensive and he will need financial as well as peer and emotional support. I still have a funeral to finish paying but I have made a donation to help him.
    Maybe others could see that support is needed also

    Reply
    • Mark from OZ

       /  October 6, 2015

      Bonzer idea Abel!
      Gie us that ‘hat’. There! On down the line folks. It’s not how much you give; it’s what you ‘get’ in return!

      Reply
    • Every little helps…

      Reply
  99. Maria

     /  October 6, 2015

    Thanks for your suggestion, Abel.

    Reply
  100. Chinese ship cuts through Artic for record round trip

    Chinese ship “Yongsheng” completed a record-breaking 55-day round trip to Europe through the Arctic Ocean, an accomplishment that marks Beijing’s efforts to turn the region into a new trade route, the media reported Monday.

    “Yongsheng” left the Chinese port of Dalian on July 8, reached the Swedish port of Varberg in mid-August and returned to Tianjin on October 4, covering more than 37,000 km of round trip in 55 days, EFE news reported.

    http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/chinese-ship-cuts-through-artic-for-record-round-trip-115100500849_1.html

    Reply
  101. Puerto Rico battles record heat wave amid drought

    SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — Puerto Rico is facing a record-breaking heat wave this month amid an ongoing drought.

    The National Weather Service said the first five days of October are the warmest in the history of the U.S. territory for the month since record-keeping began.

    Temperatures have averaged 94 degrees across the island this week as a result of rare southeastern winds.
    http://news.yahoo.com/puerto-rico-battles-record-heat-wave-amid-drought-165501504.html

    Reply
  102. Koch network donors have already shelled out $20m to GOP Super Pacs

    Several prominent Koch network donors have written checks of between $100,000 and $11m to the Super Pacs of Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush and others this election cycle

    The Koch donor network is a group of over 200 wealthy conservatives overseen by Charles G Koch and David H Koch that meets twice a year at exclusive resorts to discuss small government and free-market policy priorities and raise funds for nonprofits that push their agenda.
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/oct/06/koch-brothers-network-donors-republican-super-pacs

    Reply
  103. “Some 60 million people across sub-Saharan Africa are already going hungry and the situation could deteriorate dramatically as climate phenomena hike the risk of drought, the Red Cross said Monday.”

    “Yet the worst is yet to come, IFRC warned, pointing to the strengthening of the El Nino climate phenomenon, which comes with warming sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, causing heavy rains in some parts of the world and drought elsewhere.”

    http://www.afp.com/en/news/60-mn-people-sub-saharan-africa-risk-famine-red-cross

    Reply
  104. Tweets from São Paulo translated –

    2×1 water rationing in 18 neighborhoods in Guarulhos
    http:// globotv.globo.com/rede-globo/bom -dia-sao-paulo/v/baixo-nivel-de-reservatorio-provoca-rodizio-de-agua-em-guarulhos/4517674/ …

    Guarulhos residents have rotation a day with water and two without
    http: // glo.bo/1Rs2fpn

    Reply
  105. – Toxic-toxic-toxic… to all biota.
    And it’s the same toxic debris that power blowers pulverize and disperse on a daily basis in America — even around schools and hospitals. Of course the the toxic dust also infests our homes.

    Toxic road runoff kills adult coho salmon in hours, study finds

    A new study shows that stormwater runoff from urban roadways is so toxic to coho salmon that it can kill adult fish in as little as 2½ hours.

    Scientists have long suspected that the mixture of oil, heavy metals and grime that washes off highways and roads can be poisonous to coho, but the study is the first to prove it.

    The research got its start more than a decade ago, when habitat-restoration projects began coaxing a trickle of coho back to several urban streams in the Puget Sound area. But many of those fish died before they could spawn. And the deaths seemed to coincide with rainstorms that sent runoff surging through drainage pipes and into the waterways
    http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/whats-killing-coho-study-points-to-urban-road-runoff/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=article_left

    Reply
  106. California agency votes to ban SeaWorld orca breeding

    LONG BEACH, Calif. (AP) — The California Coastal Commission on Thursday approved a $100 million expansion of the tanks SeaWorld uses to hold killer whales in San Diego — but it banned breeding of the captive orcas that would live in them.

    Animal rights activists praised the decision as a death blow to the use of killer whales at the California ocean park.

    The vote “ensures that no more orcas will be condemned to a nonlife of loneliness, deprivation and misery,” said a statement from People from the Ethical Treatment of Animals.

    http://www.seattletimes.com/business/california-agency-votes-to-ban-seaworld-orca-breeding/

    Reply

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