We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Graph — Global Sea Level Rise Just Went off the Chart

From end 2014 through Fall of 2015 global sea levels surged. Building heat hitting +1 C above 1880s averages in the atmosphere-ocean system continued to set off a range of what appear to be ramping impacts. Thermal expansion grew more dramatic as oceans continued to heat up during what may be a record El Nino year. Rates of land ice melt continued to increase — providing a greater and greater fraction of overall global sea level rise. And global ocean currents showed signs of a melt-spurred change — which resulted in an uneven distribution of this overall rise.

We’re Going to Need A Bigger Graph

During that less than one year time, seas rose by fully 1 centimeter. That’s three times the ‘normal’ rate that’s been roughly ongoing since the early 1990s. A big bump that’s now part of a three-and-a-half-year, 3-centimeter surge. One more sign that global sea level rise is starting to really ramp up.

AVISO Sea level rise

(Global sea level rise since 1992 hits past the 8 centimeter mark in the AVISO altimetric graph. Image source: AVISO.)

This big, one-centimeter, jump topped the previous AVISO graph, which went up to 8 centimeters, forcing the measure to generate a new graph with a 9 centimeter top like. In other words, ‘we’re gonna need a bigger graph’ (See the old, smaller, graph here). Unfortunately, with some of the world’s top scientists predicting the potential for an exponentially increasing rate of sea level rise through this Century, it appears that ‘we’re gonna need a bigger graph’ may well become the scientific rallying cry of the age.

Possibility of Exponential Increase in Rate of Sea Level Rise

This year’s seemingly-staggering, 1 centimeter and counting, jump in sea level in less than one year, if maintained over the course of a century would result in a more than 1 meter global rise. Sadly, many new studies on the rate of glacier destabilization in Antarctica and Greenland hint that such a significant jump in sea level is not only likely, but may even be significantly exceeded under business as usual or even a moderately curtailed rate of fossil fuel burning.

A new study led by former NASA GISS head Dr. James Hansen points to the possibility of as much as 3 meters of sea level rise by mid Century and 7 meters or more of sea level rise by end Century even if the global economy somewhat steps off its current high trajectory of fossil fuel burning.

hansen-sea-level-rise

(Steadily ramping sea level rise that may be the start of an exponential curve. Image source: Research Conducted by Dr. James Hansen.)

Such massive rates of sea level rise would clearly be catastrophic.

In such cases, we’d start to see these kinds of exponential increases really begin to ramp up over the next 10, 20, and 30 years. And, given the rather large bumps we’re seeing in the AVISO measure for the past 3 and a half years, it’s possible we’re at the start of one of these potential step changes.

Links:

AVISO Sea Level Rise

Halfway to 2 C — World Approaching Dangerous Climate Milestone

Global Sea Level Rise Going Exponential?

Human-Warmed Southern Ocean Takes Aim at East Antarctica

Warning From Scientists: Age of Superstorms, Rapid Sea Level Rise Likely on the Way

Dr. James Hansen Columbia University

 

 

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263 Comments

  1. If all the sea level rise problem needed was a bigger graph, it would ameliorate one of the converging crises…

    Sent from my iPad 🙏🏻

    >

    Reply
  2. Jeremy

     /  October 6, 2015

    The first signs of increasing sea level should be the regression of beaches, sand beaches generally have a gradient of 5 degrees or less, so a 9cm change on average would suggest that high water mark would move or want to move 1.8 metres inland. Certainly in the UK many beaches have lost sand or those with soft cliffs are now eroding far faster than in previous decades. These problems are rarely linked to sea level changes although planning here is taking some account of the changes with some areas being defended and others left to there eventual fate.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-26125479
    Trouble is this will be too little too late.

    Reply
  3. Off topic, but I must say it… I hope you’re feeling alright, Robert. I (and every other regular reader here I’m sure) have been worried about you. I have no idea if you were sick, super busy or just in vacation. Judging by your hard work and dedication to this site and subject, I wouldn’t be surprised if you had gotten run down. I really hope that all is well!!

    Reply
    • Dan in Oz

       /  October 7, 2015

      Hi Robert,

      I’m a rare commenter on here, but very regular reader. I too hope all is well. You do such an immense job on this blog and join so many dots that each post is a virtual treatise! But don’t do yourself in over it!

      On an other note, I’ve been trying to educate the readers of the UK’s Telegraph (under a different name) in the comments section. It’s truely amazing the congnative disonance that exists over climate change in these people.

      Those with a politically right of centre (or far right) ideology seem to have an inability to think beyond their own experince and believe everyone is like them. I worked for the state government here in their now defunct Office of Climate Change. I created and staffed a climate change display at a big event. We used sea level maps of a local coastal town, less than 50 miles from the capital city (also coastal). The map showed potential land lost to innundation at 2m global sea level rise and 7m global sea level rise. About 70% of people said ‘Thank god I don’t live there!’ as if global sea level rise would be isolated to just that town. By the end of the event I was exhuasted and exasperated!

      Reply
  4. climatehawk1

     /  October 7, 2015

    Tweeting.

    Reply
  5. Maria

     /  October 7, 2015

    Seen in a tweet conversation today: Climate change counter culture member: coronal holes (happening now on Sun) also correlated with lower Earth temps. Just sayin.

    Response from climate change activist: That’s right, just sayin’, not checkin’ the qualified scientific literature.

    Reply
  6. Maria

     /  October 7, 2015

    Daniel Swain ‏@Weather_West 6h6 hours ago
    Multivariate ENSO index on track to eclipse all previous events during N. Hem. winter

    Reply
  7. Unwilling to settle for a wonderfully deeper ocean, they demand bigger graphs! There’s just no end to it.

    What surprises me is there seems to be very little discussion about this spike, which getting to quite large and there is little hope it is going to abate for months. So how tall is the spike going to get? I brought it up at Climate Etc. a couple of months ago and Professor Curry seemed to be disputing it was real.

    It’s real. I suspect some of it is hot water that was piled up in the Western Pacific that was not being sampled by ARGO and was not being counted in the steric number.

    Reply
  8. Recent talk by Kevin Anderson, who’s keeping it 100:

    Kevin Anderson – The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … dissonance or creativity in a changing climate

    Reply
  9. rustj2015

     /  October 7, 2015

    David! Great talk with positive elements — but (out-/over-?) balanced with what our human nature does without care for Nature.

    Reply
  10. redskylite

     /  October 7, 2015

    There is a strong chance that sea level rise will accelerate and become a serious problem in the next few decades and yet, according to this Guardian headline the U.N is dropping a plan to assist in mass population migrations.

    Is it me ? or does this seem very callous, we really do not have much time to save immense suffering.

    Headline Title “UN drops plan to help move climate-change affected people”

    “The impact of climate change is anticipated to displace up to 250 million people worldwide by 2050, including many in low-lying Pacific islands such as Tuvalu, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/07/un-drops-plan-to-create-group-to-relocate-climate-change-affected-people

    Reply
    • That phrase in the headline, “…climate-change affected people…” :There is a deliberate intent by The Guardian to avoid using the common-enough noun phrase, “climate refugee”. The Guardian is down-playing the import of the situation, and it’s accurate to call them “climate refugees”.

      Reply
    • Thank you Robert for another amazing post.
      Redsky – The planet is already way past it’s carrying capacity (the natural Nitrogen pool would limit pop. to about 1.5Billion max.). There are going to be some very hard ‘choices’ over the next year[s]. And there aren’t enough ‘lifeboats’…

      Reply
  11. Reblogged this on The Secular Jurist and commented:
    “A new study led by former NASA GISS head Dr. James Hansen points to the possibility of as much as 3 meters of sea level rise by mid Century and 7 meters or more of sea level rise by end Century even if the global economy somewhat steps off its current high trajectory of fossil fuel burning.”

    Reply
  12. Thank you Robert for another amazing post.
    Redsky – The planet is already way past it’s carrying capacity (the natural Nitrogen pool would limit pop to probably 1.5Billion max.). There are going to be some very hard ‘choices’ over the next year[s]. And there aren’t enough ‘lifeboats’…

    A record hot day here in the south and it’s only early spring (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/regional/286360/southern-firefighters-battle-blazes). Shaping up to be a very atypic El Nino here, normally NZ EN’s are cold springs but where getting a week long Nor’wester (normally they last a day) with 20% humidity and 30C over much of the east side of the South Island. So far today there have been 28 fires in the south which is pretty unusual so early

    The other night I had the ‘opportunity’ to meet a real live climate change denier who asked a ? of Sir Geoffrey and then ranted that the sea hadn’t risen a mm for a century! (at Sir Geoffrey Palmer’s climate speech – http://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/358312/nz-climate-change-laggard-palmer). I raised the issue of high CO2 levels depressing crop (and human) nutrition as researhed by Irakli Loladze – he had never heard of such a thing and said he always thought of CO2 as ‘fertiliser’, I hope he finds some facts for a change.

    This is one area the deniers can’t deny (Loladze’s latest – “Hidden shift of the ionome of plants exposed to elevated CO2 depletes minerals at the base of human nutrition” search on title as url too long). Warming is bad enough: what 450 to 500ppm CO2 will do is really scary.
    Nigel at 46.6 South, NZ

    Reply
  13. Egor the wonder dog

     /  October 7, 2015

    SLR like the sun going super nova, are both happening, But I think humans will be dropping dead from heat, and general human habitat loss before sea level rise is an issue. It might kill a few million people, but what of a ‘Sandy’ hitting a nuke power plant or some such?

    Reply
    • redskylite

       /  October 7, 2015

      That’s a point echoing a statement made by Dr Tord Kjellstrom in the media yesterday. . .

      I can only guess the media assume everyone has access to 24 hour air-conditioning or will migrate to live within a biosphere . . .

      Kjellstrom said it is not storms or rising sea levels that will be climate change’s greatest threat to human life in the next 100 years – but heat exposure. He says it is here already and people are dying.

      “I think somehow that some of the experts want to keep the calculations around heat exposure and its effects low-key,” Kjellstrom said. “I don’t know why.”

      http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/72591034/climate-change-heat-a-greater-threat-than-sea-level-rise-says-mapua-professor

      Reply
    • Sunkensheep

       /  October 10, 2015

      Sea level rise (at least 1M/3ft by mid century) seems inevitable. Sun going supernova, or even nova, a downright impossibility. Sun should go through -> old and fat -> red giant -> white dwarf, unless our understanding of smaller star lifecycles is broken.

      Reply
  14. Tom

     /  October 7, 2015

    Dredd has been working on this extensively this year. He’s researched it, developed a model that indicates real time sea level change in various zones, and found that it isn’t as simple as sea level rise everywhere at the same time or at the same rate. You can view his progress here (if interested):

    http://blogdredd.blogspot.com/

    He was influenced by Dr. J. Mitrovica of Harvard (and his team) looking into sea level change, who has a youtube video describing some results.
    Look up Jerry Mitrovica, Harvard University: Arthur M. Sackler Colloquia to view the 1/2 hr video – very interesting and informative.

    Reply
  15. Colorado Bob

     /  October 7, 2015

    Puerto Rico battles record heat wave amid drought

    SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — Puerto Rico is facing a record-breaking heat wave this month amid an ongoing drought.

    The National Weather Service said the first five days of October are the warmest in the history of the U.S. territory for the month since record-keeping began.

    http://news.yahoo.com/puerto-rico-battles-record-heat-wave-amid-drought-165501504.html

    Reply
  16. “Aleksey Portnov Defends Thesis On Permafrost.”

    “It was previously proposed that the permafrost in the Kara Sea, and other Arctic areas, extends to water depths up to 100 meters, creating a seal that methane stored underneath cannot bypass. Portnov and collegues have found that the West Yamal shelf is leaking, profoundly, at depths much shallower than that.”

    https://cage.uit.no/news/aleksey-portnov-defends-thesis-on-permafrost/

    https://cage.uit.no

    Reply
  17. Colorado Bob

     /  October 7, 2015

    Slightest Change in regional warming can cause large wildfires

    A research team led by John Calder from the University of Wyoming’s Department of Geology and Geophysics has studied charcoal deposits from 12 different lakes in the state. The lakes surround northern Colorado’s Mount Zirkel Wilderness.

    Many parts of the area were destroyed by wildfires during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), dating back 1,000 years ago and lasted 300 years. The recent temperature rise is akin to that of MWP when many notable wildfires had taken place.

    “Using Yellowstone fire history as a baseline for comparison, our minimum estimate of 50 percent of (Mount Zirkel) sites burned within a century at the beginning of the MWP exceeds any century-scale estimate of Yellowstone burning for the past 750 years”, said the research head.

    http://nycity.today/content/285974-slightest-change-regional-warming-can-cause-large-wildfires

    Reply
  18. Colorado Bob

     /  October 7, 2015

    After S.C. floods, Lindsey Graham reverses course on disaster aid

    When Congress considered federal disaster assistance in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) voted against it. The right-wing lawmaker said at the time he didn’t “think Arkansas needs to bail out the Northeast.” Two years later, when it was his state that was hammered by flooding, Cotton reversed course, requesting and receiving emergency aid.

    Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) also voted against the Sandy-relief bill, though three years later, the Republican senator fought for federal funding for Texas in the wake of flooding.

    Today, they have some company.
    http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/after-sc-floods-lindsey-graham-reverses-course-disaster-aid

    Reply
    • Doug

       /  October 7, 2015

      Well Surprise Suprise Sargent. Even Gomer Pyle is smarter than these folks.

      Reply
  19. First attempt awaiting moderation, so I’m re-posting with one link only.

    “Aleksey Portnov Defends Thesis On Permafrost.”

    “It was previously proposed that the permafrost in the Kara Sea, and other Arctic areas, extends to water depths up to 100 meters, creating a seal that methane stored underneath cannot bypass. Portnov and collegues have found that the West Yamal shelf is leaking, profoundly, at depths much shallower than that.”

    https://cage.uit.no/news/aleksey-portnov-defends-thesis-on-permafrost/

    Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 7, 2015

      Thanks for that link, humorta. There were some other excellent/informative links in there too.

      Reply
  20. Ned W

     /  October 7, 2015

    Very nice post. Recent temperatures and sea level rise are both quite dramatic.

    Just want to carp about one sentence:
    “A big bump that’s now part of a three-and-a-half-year, 3-centimeter surge.”

    On the AVISO chart, we are currently at 8cm. So a 3cm surge would presumably have started at 5cm, which seems to have been back in early 2011 … so that would be a four-and-a-half-year surge, not three-and-a-half. Aside from that, though, you’re doing exactly what we criticize the contrarians for doing with the “pause” — cherry-picking an anomalously extreme start point to calculate a trend. Early 2011 was the bottom of an extreme, temporary dip below the long-term trend.

    It seems (IMHO) likely that the recent 1cm rise in sea level is an artifact of the El Nino, and when that phase of the ENSO cycle ends, sea level will resume its long-term upward trend (approx 3.3mm/yr as shown in the graph) rather than the current dizzying 1cm/yr.

    Reply
    • The statement is an anecdote, not a cherry. In essence, I’m not setting up talking points to endlessly repeat RE the steepest portion of the graph, just commenting on it. In any case the post 2010 rate of rise, as indicated in a number of studies at this time, has steepened into the range of 4 to 5 mm per year when correcting for other influences (El Niño etc). Also 2011.5 minus 2015 = 3.5 years. So check your maths.

      Finally, the long term rate of rise is clearly steepening. So 3.3 mm per year is rather recent and part of an ongoing and warming related upward trend. To this point, and to others, what climate change deniers say and have said is consistently proven incorrect and irrelevant. And what I have said and they way in which I have communicated is nothing at all or in any way comparable to that level of deception.

      In short, we are above trend since 2010 and the steepest portion is + 1 cm per year which is relevant in the context of a spike. The spike, which in the context of the article, that I point out.

      Reply
  21. Actually, a four-and-a-half year, three centimeter surge.

    Still more than double the pace of the previous twenty.

    Reply
  22. Greg

     /  October 7, 2015

    Hurrican Oho heading for Pacific northwest. “On its current path, Oho is taking a peculiar track to the northeast. Although tropical systems do, on occasion, move to the northeast in the central Pacific, since 1949, no late season (October or later) system has formed south of Hawaii and moved to the northeast….Furthermore, no hurricanes have ventured into the region off Northwest Coast of the U.S., extending west several hundred miles. Although prior to the period of record, a weakening hurricane did strike southern California as a strong tropical storm in 1939.”
    http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-oho-hurricane-northwest-british-columbia

    Reply
    • – PNW PDX
      Yes, I’ve been watching this with keen interest.
      The weakened polar jet stream over a pool of warm water, and a warm landmass is proving irresistible to hurricanes in the time anthropogenic global warming. It all seems a bit ‘monsoonal’ in character.
      We may see zero snow pack in the PNW if this is the ‘norm’.
      I think we may see plenty of this unless the Arctic can get cold again and create some energetic weather in the Arctic and Gulf of Alaska.
      Being a long time West Coast weather watcher I have always to the Gulf of Alaska for ‘real’ weather — which I see very little of these days.

      Reply
  23. Greg

     /  October 7, 2015

    Flooding in the Carolinas was, according to Meteorologist Steve Bowen the sixth “1-in-1,000 year” rain event since 2010 in the U.S. It dropped 11 trillion gallons of water in this event, per meteorologist Ryan Maue, roughly the same amount calculated by NASA to eliminate California’s drought.

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/10/06/11-trillion-gallons-water-fell-carolinas-past-week/73447754/

    Reply
    • It’s blackly-funny that media, ‘society’ and politics fail to grasp 1-in-xxxx year events – this idea was dreamed up by the insurance industry in order to monetize risk, but as future time is essentially infinite, having hundreds of adjacent consecutive 1000 year events does not contravene statistics. Government continually fails to get this

      Reply
      • What I want to see is the new frequency of 1-in-xxxx year events at the same place.

        Years ago in the 90s I lived in Arlington Mass which suffered a 1-in-35 years storm. About three years later an even worse (i.e., less frequent) storm showed up. A lot of garden apartments with habitable basements had to have their drainage replaced because it was the second time in those three years the apartments flooded. I believe both the town and the owners’ insurance companies demanded it.

        Reply
  24. Greg

     /  October 7, 2015

    Keep an eye on Joaquin which is still alive and dangerous and expected to hit Spain and Portugal this weekend.
    http://ecn.t3.tiles.virtualearth.net/tiles/h0321.jpeg?g=4212&mkt=en-us

    Reply
  25. Robert, (and other area folk) are you attending the Arctic Matters NAS conference Jan. 14? Not only is it free, but Jennifer Francis and Robert Alley are two of the speakers. check it out here https://www.eventbrite.com/e/arctic-matters-day-event-registration-18677853964?utm_source=eb_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=order_confirmation_email&utm_term=eventname&ref=eemailordconf
    Would be good to meet you in person.

    Reply
  26. 3 meters by mid century means that New Orleans’ new hurricane barrier across Lake Borgne will see its reveal (height above sea level) reduced from 32 feet to 22 feet. Since a lot of our levees are only 18 feet above SL, those embankments will be only 8 feet in net height. At this time, a major hurricane will take New Orleans out, and even a Cat 1 will have a good chance of flooding it. Not good… not good at all!😦 :eek

    Reply
    • Jeremy

       /  October 7, 2015

      I have often wondered if we can slightly delay, and I emphasise slightly, by flooding some major desert depressions around the world : Death Valley, Salton Sea, Dead Sea, Qattara Depression Egypt, Danakil adepression etc in a co-ordinated fashion and at the same time generate substantial amounts of hydro-electric energy.

      Have not done the maths but probably would only account for a millimetre or so.!

      Reply
      • entropicman

         /  October 8, 2015

        You would need to pump 360 cubic kilometres for each millimetre decrease in sea level.

        Reply
        • That’s 36km x 10 km x 1 km deep.

        • 62 m of projected SLR will require 22,320,000,000 (22.3 bn) cu km of excavations in the world’s deserts. This simply boggles the mind! :crazy:

      • Well to prevent serious SLR humanity would have dig a depression in the Sahara Desert as big as the volume of all the ice in Greenland and Antarctica.🙂😉

        Yeah, I know. Ain’t gonna happen.

        Reply
      • jeremy

         /  October 9, 2015

        Thanks. My gut feeling was right then. But if we started digging a great big hole it would be whoops, we are release a whole lot more CO2 from the machinery, whoops we,ve dumped the spoil in the oceans raising sea level further, whoops we’ve unbalanced the Earths rotation and the ice caps are forming over the tropics as was!!! Nightmare – there must be a easier way.

        Reply
      • Sunkensheep

         /  October 12, 2015

        In the words of Obama, “yes, we can”.
        Just divert some flood during high rainfall events into chosen location. The new water will hopefully lead to higher rainfall, leading in turn to more water for diversion. Deserts can be converted to hold significant water too, it’s rather a longer term process.

        The problem is humans are doing the opposite – pumping long held aquifers dry that will take millennia to recover, reducing the storage capacity of watersheds, reclaiming wetlands for housing or cropping. So many cases where humans take the path that makes life most difficult for humans themselves. I think the problem is in thinking of the natural world as in balance. In reality many ecosystems, and even geophysical systems are inverted pendulums. Give it a push and it will move to a new state.

        Reply
  27. Hi Robert.🙂

    Reply
  28. – There’s quite a bit of info and a narrative of efforts by Scripps/ArcticMix to study winds and ice mixing etc.

    ….
    One of the measurements captured on the undersea mooring is the velocity of currents through a wide range of ocean depths. When these currents are displayed as a long series over time the clear signature of internal waves can be seen. These beams of energy, generated by the storm that passed over the Beaufort Sea weeks earlier, descend into the deeper layers of the ocean where they can “break”, and as we observed elsewhere in the Arctic, heat can be mixed into surface waters a bit like hot coffee in cold cream.

    What we have seen so far in the Arctic has certainly not refuted the hypothesis there there could be a positive feedback in regional changes in sea-ice cover that could lead to an increased rate of melting. The marked energetic mixing we have seen here at the heart of the Arctic ice-melt zone could be a key in understanding a potential new climate feedback. But for now the hard work lies ahead…

    Reply
  29. – Antarctica – Good visuals of snow and snow deposition/erosion.

    2ODIAC
    2-season Ozone Depletion and Interaction with Aerosols Campaign

    By Andrew SlaterSep 25, 2015

    Antarctica is the coldest, highest and driest continent in the world. It is largely a desert, with most places receiving less than 250mm of water equivalent each year. Despite low precipitation, snow is often mobile at this time of year (September) due to unsettled weather, very cold temperatures and some very high wind speed events. The interplay of wind speed and snow surface conditions create many patterns in the snow as the battle between snow deposition and erosion takes place.

    Surface forms in snow can be similar to those in sand, but an important difference is that snow crystals will sinter and bond with each other, meaning that some erosion derived forms, such as sastrugi, are only found in snow. The rate of bonding is a function of temperature, so in the cold of Antarctica snow can remains mobile longer than more temperate snow climates.

    Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 8, 2015

      The project and the pix on the site are striking. Thanks. Since the 90s, there’s no other place in the world I’d rather go explore. But jobs are impossibly competitive and I won’t go as a tourist to impose my footprint.

      Reply
  30. Colorado Bob

     /  October 7, 2015

    Permafrost-eating bacteria: a new twist on thawing Arctic and global warming

    We and others have recently shown that as this permafrost thaws, yedoma is released to the surrounding soils and some gets transported by rivers from land to the Arctic Ocean.

    While most scientists would have predicted that this very old organic matter would not be very digestible to modern-day organisms, such as bacteria, it turns out that it is extremely “fresh” in its composition and consequently highly bio-available to microbes.

    http://theconversation.com/permafrost-eating-bacteria-a-new-twist-on-thawing-arctic-and-global-warming-47252

    Reply
  31. Robt:

    Your link for the source of Hansen’s SLR graph goes to a vague list. You may want to point directly to the paper-white paper to have a credible source.

    .02

    Best,

    D

    Reply
  32. Neil Gundel

     /  October 7, 2015

    Thanks for this Robert – good stuff as usual.

    I don’t know that it makes sense to tie this phenomenon to El Nino though. My understanding is that the high ocean surface temperatures indicate that if anything, more energy is going into the atmosphere instead of into the oceans vs. what is happening during a neutral or La Nina year.

    Reply
  33. Syd Bridges

     /  October 8, 2015

    This reminds me of how, a couple of years back, the Australian weather forecasters had to introduce two new temperature colours on their temperature maps, IIRC for over 50 deg C. I think we may see a few more graphs needing to expand their y axes in the next few years.

    No wait! I have a solution. Congress could make it illegal to alter the axes on climate-related graphs! Then they could all flat line.A bill, to help people like Huckabee, could declare that wealthy homeowners who lose their beach front homes to “Sudden Beach Subsidence,” are entitled to 120 percent compensation, as no one could have ever predicted it would happen. The extra 20 percent is to help them get over the trauma.

    Reply
  34. Maria

     /  October 8, 2015

    DT: Pollution at schools. The local news did a nice package about the pollution maleffects on children when parents keep their cars idling while waiting for kids to come out. They got the students involved to teach the parents that they should turn off their engines. I was impressed with the amount of time the station spent on the story.

    Air quality event today to highlight importance of avoiding car idling at schools.

    Mary Frazier, a representative from UCSF Benioff Children’s Hospital Oakland, Lisa Adamos, Pleasanton economic development specialist, Tom Flannigan, Bay Area Air District spokesman, and members of the Pleasanton Middle School leadership class will participate in the event at Pleasanton Middle, 5001 Case Ave.

    http://www.pleasantonweekly.com/news/2015/10/07/air-quality-event-today-to-highlight-importance-of-avoiding-car-idling-at-schools

    Reply
    • Thanks Maria.
      But I’m still astounded by the backward and quite twisted method of :” … the students involved to teach the parents that they should turn off their engines.”
      Saddling children with the remedy is shameful.

      – Route the exhaust pipe through the driver — and you solve the problem.
      – Paint school buses black, the roads bright yellow — you solve it too.
      How many decades has this been a problem? Too many.

      I may have shown this before. I made sure many decision makers in Santa Barbara got a copy a few years ago.

      Reply
    • Vic

       /  October 8, 2015

      Jakarta has just done an about face and is now requesting international assistance to extinguish the fires.

      http://news.yahoo.com/indonesia-accepts-international-help-combat-fires-043618406.html

      Reply
    • Vic

       /  October 8, 2015

      Indonesia is doing far better than Brazil.

      Reply
      • Vic

         /  October 8, 2015

        Interesting how Brazil’s curve flattened out post Copenhagen.

        Reply
      • Vic

         /  October 8, 2015

        What happens in Paris doesn’t stay in Paris.

        Reply
      • Thanks Vic.
        Palm oil ‘extraction’ is the main driver of much of this incineration and deforestation. Junk food and other nonessential consumer products are behind the demand. All parties have elements of corruption of some sort.
        A quick search found these tidbits of info:

        ‘In Indonesia…
        Palm oil plantations are one reason why Indonesia is one of the most critically threatened rainforest regions in the world today.’

        ‘Methane leaks from palm oil wastewater significantly increases the climate impact of palm oil production beyond emissions from land clearance, fire, and peatlands drainage, reports a new study published in Nature Climate Change.’
        – whatispalmoil.weebly.com/the-palm-industrys-role-in-deforestation-
        #

        ‘Beef and soybean production are the main drivers of deforestation in Brazil, and oil palm expansion threatens Indonesia’s forests and peatlands. These two countries have the largest forest areas in the world – and the largest forest losses over the past five years.

        Powerful industry and multi-stakeholder groups that have an extensive supply base in Brazil and Indonesia signed the New York Declaration on Forests in 2014, pledging to make their supply chains deforestation-free by 2030. The Indonesian government signed the declaration; Brazil did not, although some of its subnational governments did.’
        – Forest News: blog.cifor.org/33868/zero-deforestation-special-one-wicked-problem-three-
        #

        ‘ TPP broadens market scope in US, say palm oil experts

        KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 7 — Palm oil industry experts have lauded the recently concluded Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations, saying they will broaden the market scope for the commodity, particularly in the United States.
        The US market, where soy oil dominates, will benefit from the additional palm oil option, making it competitively priced, a practitioner who requested anonymity said.

        Another industry participant said palm oil could be well accepted in the US given its consumption patterns and presence of a lot of fast food industries.
        “The demand is going to be huge, on a market to market basis. Because of the trans fat issue that is gaining prominence in the country, we see a lot of palm oil growth prospects in the US market,” he added.
        – themalaymailonline.com/money/article/tpp-broadens-market-scope-in-us
        ###

        Reply
      • – My photo of palm oil, or sap, as a magnet toxic traffic soot in Santa Barbara, CA circa 2012.

        Reply
  35. Vic

     /  October 8, 2015

    “Scientists have confirmed the third-ever global bleaching of coral reefs is under way and warned it could see the biggest coral die-off in history.

    Since 2014, a massive underwater heatwave, driven by climate change, has caused corals to lose their brilliance and die in every ocean. By the end of this year 38% of the world’s reefs will have been affected. About 5% will have died forever.

    But with a very strong El Niño driving record global temperatures and a huge patch of hot water, known as “the Blob”, hanging obstinately in the north-western Pacific, things look far worse again for 2016.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/08/worlds-oceans-facing-biggest-coral-die-off-in-history-scientists-warn

    Reply
  36. Maria

     /  October 8, 2015

    Inside Climate News Releases more re: Exxon investigation: the Natuna gas field project. Long and at times riveting piece about the integrity and agony of their scientists as they tried to make this project work without imposing negative environmental impacts. And ultimately the tragedy of one leader coming on board to negate/cover up their cutting edge research on ghg’s.

    Throughout the 1980s, the company struggled to solve the carbon problem of one of the biggest gas fields in the world out of concern for climate impacts.

    The company consulted with leading scientists, including NASA’s pioneering expert James E. Hansen, to understand the effect on atmospheric CO2 concentrations if the gas from Natuna were released.

    And…..Eventually, Raymond [who joined the BOD in 1984]would rise to become chairman and chief executive, and to lead a public campaign discrediting the scientific consensus on climate change and fighting measures to control greenhouse gas emissions.

    In the meantime Exxon, now known as ExxonMobil, appears to have kept its years of climate-related deliberations about Natuna mostly to itself. Exxon only began to disclose climate risks to its shareholders years after it first weighed Natuna’s risks, federal filings show.

    http://insideclimatenews.org/news/08102015/Exxons-Business-Ambition-Collided-with-Climate-Change-Under-a-Distant-Sea

    Reply
    • redskylite

       /  October 8, 2015

      Many thanks for sharing that interesting history note on Exxon, it seems even Exxon had some sort of conscience and never went ahead. I wonder what the other oil companies were up to at a similar point in history.

      Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 8, 2015

        You’re welcome, skylite. Tragic is what most comes to mind for me. Not dissimilar to the idea of scientists withholding from the world the cause of cancer or heart disease–living lavishly with this full knowledge from the profits derived from the deaths of millions………Excellent question re: what other oil companies were doing/knowing at the same time…Let’s do some digging(unintentional pun).

        Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 8, 2015

        Should read: “top executives and decision makers living lavishly………..” Was not implying those scientists did same.

        Reply
  37. Large trees are dying sooner under climate change:

    Large trees deliver many benefits to forest ecosystems, including the provision of habitats for other species and the storage of carbon. A synthesis of tree growth and mortality data from around the globe now suggests that under drought large trees are dying in higher numbers than smaller trees.

    Tree mortality: Large trees losing out to drought

    Reply
  38. Colorado Bob

     /  October 8, 2015

    September weather sets heat records in Fort Collins

    Fort Collins just wrapped up the hottest September in 127 years……………………. This September, the average daily temperature was a record 67.1 degrees, 5.4 degrees above the 1981-2010 normal.

    The average high temperature was a record 83.3 degrees, a whopping 7.4 degrees higher than normal. That tops the average high for September in 1892, when the average high was 82.8 degrees.

    http://www.coloradoan.com/story/news/2015/10/07/september-weather-sets-heat-records-fort-collins/73484118/

    Reply
  39. Hi all,

    I have just updated the SLR Hansen graph on my fcb page, not sure if all can see it, but I can link to it, so its here:

    Sea level rise 1780-2015

    Also extrapolation to 2100 is there – it gives 1,2 of sea level rise by the end of century.

    Alex

    Reply
  40. Slightly OT but…

    Ice rebound in the Arctic is slow, latest (Oct. 3rd) ice area is third lowest on record.

    Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area – The Cryosphere Today

    Reply
  41. Maria

     /  October 8, 2015

    From the ongoing series from Inside Climate News.

    Highlighting the Allure of Synfuels, Exxon Played Down the Climate Risks

    Early in the 1980s, the lingering fear of oil scarcity and the emerging threat of climate change were beginning to intersect. And at that junction stood Exxon Corp., working out its strategy for survival in the uncertain 21st century.

    At the time, Exxon believed oil supplies could not keep up with demand, so it put its weight behind a crusade to develop synthetic fossil fuels as a costly and carbon intensive, but potentially profitable alternative. It could liquefy the vast deposits of coal, oil shale and tar sands that were readily available in North America. This would be the new black gold, supplying as much as a third of the energy the United States would use in the early 21st century, company executives estimated.

    http://insideclimatenews.org/news/08102015/highlighting-allure-synfuels-exxon-played-down-climate-risks

    Reply
  42. 12volt dan

     /  October 8, 2015

    The high court of justice in Pakistan’s capital city, Lahore, recently ruled that the country must do more to protect its citizens from climate change, ordering the creation of a “climate council” to ensure that Pakistan’s climate commitments are followed. That makes Pakistan the second country in a matter of months to be compelled by a court to protect its citizens from the dangers of a warming climate.

    Maybe this is a kick start to more responsibility by leaders,are you listening HARPER?

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/10/07/3710023/pakistan-court-climate-change/

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  October 8, 2015

      Absolutely. We need to use our legal system as a major part of our strategy moving forward.

      Reply
      • 12volt dan

         /  October 8, 2015

        I agree force the leaders to act and then maybe something can be done with ff companies. It seems that we need to break the hold they have on governments before implementing real change

        Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 8, 2015

      Pakistan? Really? Hope……always.

      Reply
      • 12volt dan

         /  October 8, 2015

        it’s another precedent to shore up legal action anywhere else. some hope, maybe not a lot but some

        Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 8, 2015

        Indeed another precedent. Without hope—the creativity of our imaginations tends to get stifled, snuffed out. It’s my belief that we humans can hold both emotions—hope and despair at the same time—neither one denying the other– while letting hope guide our actions for the future. It’s this mindset that has gotten me through alot——and humanity overall?

        Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  October 9, 2015

      http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-10-08/all-climate-change-is-local

      Mayors are doing far more than Governments, for cold hard practical and economic reasons

      Reply
  43. Greg

     /  October 8, 2015

    This is what happens when humans are no longer present on a landscape. Chernobyl:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/10/06/in-the-eerie-emptiness-of-chernobyls-abandoned-towns-wildlife-is-flourishing/

    I had no idea that some of the same unique species found in N. America were flourishing there as well. Are their genetic ancestors from the last ice age?

    Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 8, 2015

      Thanks Greg—this is incredible…

      Within ten years, every animal population in the exclusion zone had at least doubled. At the same time, the kinds of species that were flourishing in the exclusion zone were vanishing from other parts of the former Soviet Union, likely due to increased hunting, poorer wildlife management and other economic changes.

      By 2010, the last year of the on-foot census, the populations for most species were as large as in any of Belarus’ four national parks. For one species, the wolves, the population was seven times bigger.

      It’s the wolves thriving that’s most intriguing to me….looking forward to the followups in the coming years.

      Reply
      • Dave Person

         /  October 9, 2015

        HI,
        This kind of condition may have also existed on lands located along the borders between native American tribes in the Northeast US. Human activity was less because of the risk of encountering an opposing tribe and game animals including furbearers flourished.

        dave

        Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 9, 2015

        Thanks, Dave, for your input. I’ve not kept up with Chernobyl and so it was stunning to learn that there is wildlife there—that they’re not deformed is equally amazing to me. This underlines the fact that we humans are truly greatest threat to this planet. I watched the movie posted below by Tom Bond and was in awe–to see full sized wolves, bison(!), eagles, roaming around, using the human structures to their advantage seems somewhat miraculous—I know, I know, you scientists don’t do miracles. ;-😉 I do look forward to learning what the scientists do learn about the different species there.

        Reply
      • Abel Adamski

         /  October 9, 2015

        There was a point raised in that report to the extent that there was NO knowledge of the health of the animals, I have read of plant and insect mutations, extreme mutations would not survive.
        The increase in numbers would be readily explained by the absence of humanity, if there was a larger percentage of Weaker or sicklier animals that would be easy prey for the predators that would contribute to their larger than explained numbers.
        Apparently some on ground evaluation of the health status is planned. Without that info we can only guess

        Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 9, 2015

        Hi Abel, thanks you–when I did some googling last nite I found this piece in Slate that refers to the plant mutations only and the author says that the mutant animals probably died quickly or were eaten by predators–what’s shocking is that the animals are so normal appearing even though they are radioactive, they are reproducing offspring that thrive…I wasn’t implying that using them as a food source for humans, even though they looked so normal, is an option.

        And as Tom pointed below, other researchers, Mousseau, disagree with the health and numbers of wildlife–one problem, according to this piece, is that he only looked at wildlife in the most contaminated zone in the exclusion zone(Red Zone) and generalized what he found to the entire exclusion zone. He’s since admitted as much. He got pushback from, among other scientists, one of his Ukrainian assistants that gathered the data…but then again, in the Wired piece I’ll publish in the following post, this scientist got called in by the Ukraine gvt to be questioned/intimidated? re: his involvement with Mousseau and the data.

        The geopolitics will make it difficult to get a true assessment, I believe. In the Wired link it’s mentioned that several years ago the Ukraine gvt wanted to turn the exclusion zone into a grand tourist attraction. The kind of nuzzling/intimidation of scientists by our FF industry is akin to minor hand-tapping by comparison to what Russian and Ukrainian gvts do to theirs. I say this as the daughter of parents who escaped Russian affiliated totalitarian regime post WW2.

        Here’s a snip from a Slate article by an American woman who went there to research her book on Ukranian Nuclear Disarmament. She mentions being shown around by one of the few women who lives there—I’d forgotten about his group that chose to stay and is somehow surviving. I’ll post the Wired link next. Thanks for this discussion everyone….fascinating stuff.

        “””But those effects[deformities, mutations] were seen only in plants. While Attack of the Giant Leaves doesn’t seem as horrible as the Creature With the Atom Brain, no one has ever found seriously deformed wild animals (or zombies) after the Chernobyl accident. Mutant animals born in the wild die or get eaten before they can be discovered. Whatever the biological costs of radiation to individuals, the fittest survived.”””

        http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/nuclear_power/2013/01/wildlife_in_chernobyl_debate_over_mutations_and_populations_of_plants_and.html

        Reply
      • There’s a good episode of PBS’s Nature regarding Chernobyl. I believe the title is “radioactive wolves”. Despite the elevated levels of radiation, wildlife of all kinds is thriving.

        Reply
    • Eric Thurston

       /  October 8, 2015

      The same thing is happening in the Korean DMZ. It has become a thriving wildlife sanctuary. It is kind of ironic that the most destructive and polluting activities of humans can lead indirectly to at least a small scale proliferation of wildlife unhindered by humans.

      Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 9, 2015

        Thanks for the pointer to the Korean DMZ, Eric. I did some googling and again, in awe. As you said, the irony….information here and in Chernobyl for we humans to spend time in contemplation. What immediately comes to mind is that acting to avert dangerous temperature levels is about first and foremost about human survival—I know, stating the obvious here—the Earth and its other inabitants will reset, realign and certainly don’t need us to survive. Quite the contrary. Oh, that the merchants of doubt would deeply internalize this notion…………..

        Reply
  44. Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, director of the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland, Australia, said the ocean was now primed for “the worst coral bleaching event in history”

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/08/worlds-oceans-facing-biggest-coral-die-off-in-history-scientists-warn

    Reply
  45. Tom Bond

     /  October 8, 2015

    This interesting documentary on the wolves of Chernobyl may also be of interest

    Many of the wild animals were introduced and are doing very well in the absence of human influence.

    Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 9, 2015

      Tom, I watched the entire movie this evening—not only did I learn much, but I was also quite moved by it. Thanks.

      Reply
    • wili

       /  October 10, 2015

      Many of the cubs are stillborn or deformed and die young. We don’t think worry much about this when it happens with wildlife. We do tend to find it…unpleasant…when it happens to our own children.

      Reply
  46. Tom Bond

     /  October 8, 2015

    With respect to sea level rise the data can be downloaded from this NASA website

    http://climate.nasa.gov/

    Using this data I have graphed sea level rise (SLR) for the second decade of this century so far, 2010 to July 2015. The trend line shows an annual SLR of 5mm per year.

    For the period 2011 to 2015 it is 6mm per year.

    For the period 2014 to 2015 is is 7mm per year.

    Notice the rising trend! As you say Robert we will need a new graph

    Reply
    • Tom

       /  October 9, 2015

      Hey Tom, are you seeing sea level FALL anywhere? You should, due to gravitational loss of the ice sheets.

      Reply
      • jeremy

         /  October 9, 2015

        Absolutely right if the Greenland ice cap dissappeared then the reduced gravitational attraction and the increased volume of water would leave sea level roughly were it is around Britain and greatly reduce it around Greenland.
        But of course melting does not happen in isolation as Antartica would also melt flooding Britain and most of the world.
        Even so isostatic rebound and reduced gravitational attraction should also be measurable around the ice caps – anyone aware of such observations?

        Reply
  47. Tsar Nicholas

     /  October 9, 2015

    The post nuclear accident situation around Chernobyl is not so bright as some depict. If you follow the work of Dr Tim Mousseau you will see that many basic biological processes have been disrupted by the fallout. many of the large animals represented as thriving do not live exclusively in contaminated zones, but in contaminated zones there are many examples of dead trees not decaying because the micro-organisms essential to the process do not thrive. This suggests that Chernobyl and now the vastly under reported Fukushima (three meltdowns!) are potential sterilisation events.

    Reply
    • Eric Thurston

       /  October 9, 2015

      I suspect that there is a big difference between background radiation and radioactive particles, once known as radioactive fallout. Proponents of nuclear power make a big issue of the relative safety of the background radiation that might be caused by a nuclear power plant releasing radioactive steam (or whatever), while ignoring the ‘hot particle’ problem. While the background radiation may only be a problem when it is extremely high, it only takes one radioactive particle lodged in the lungs to induce a cancer. In the movie about the wolves posted above, the scientists were careful to use masks when digging in the earth because of the danger of breathing the hot dust.

      The animals living at Chernobyl have a lot of opportunity to ingest radioactive dust and I would be surprised if they didn’t show signs of radiation damage such as mutations, etc.

      Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 9, 2015

        My last comment on this topic for today, Eric. While watching the movie, I also marveled that there were scientists willing to go in there, even today–and just wearing masks and only sometimes gloves….they wore none of the latter when picking up the wolf pups… This is not work I’d do no matter the salary.

        In the movie about the wolves posted above, the scientists were careful to use masks when digging in the earth because of the danger of breathing the hot dust.

        Reply
    • Tom

       /  October 9, 2015

      Exactly TN: check this out for a bit more “accuracy” in reporting [i can’t believe someone is trying to paint Chernobyl – a certified HOT ZONE – as a thriving paradise by taking a snapshot of the creatures that naturally go into human-vacated areas due to loss of habitat elsewhere; i mean THE ANIMALS don’t realize the radioactivity there will DEFINITELY cause cell mutation and death].

      Researcher: Children’s cancer linked to Fukushima radiation
      http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151008/as–japan-nuclear-childrens_cancer-1ded32614b.html

      [begins]

      TOKYO (AP) — A new study says children living near the Fukushima nuclear meltdowns have been diagnosed with thyroid cancer at a rate 20 to 50 times that of children elsewhere, a difference the authors contend undermines the government’s position that more cases have been discovered in the area only because of stringent monitoring.

      Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 9, 2015

        Tom: i can’t believe someone is trying to paint Chernobyl – a certified HOT ZONE – as a thriving paradise by taking a snapshot of the creatures that naturally go into human-vacated areas due to loss of habitat elsewhere; i mean THE ANIMALS don’t realize the radioactivity there will DEFINITELY cause cell mutation and death].

        Tom, based on the basic reading I did last night, I don’t see anyone describing it as a thriving paradise for all to live and enjoy. I apologize if my comments evoked that impression. I don’t think that at all—I got a news alert, btw, on the childhood cancer rate in the Fukushima disaster area. This is a known consequence in humans. I decreased consuming any seafood, to only rare occasions, since the 80s, and completely postFukushima because of radiation and other insults that we know all of our waters are expriencing.

        What I’m reading(admittedly limited at this point) is awe and puzzlement that these animals are even there and whose populations are thriving. In the Wired link above, they describe how several cows stayed/lived post the crisis and birthed a calf. ??

        There, he[Gaschak, a Ukraine researcher] helped monitor cattle found roaming over the contaminated land soon after the accident—three cows and a bull, which the scientists named Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Uranium. He has worked in the zone ever since. It was at the farm that he first saw surprising evidence that radiation was not having the damaging long-term effect on animals that he had expected. Alpha, Beta, and Gamma had initially been rendered infertile by the acute doses of radiation but later recovered. The first post-Chernobyl calf was born at the farm around 1989. And when the experimental herd was expanded to 30 or more, it included some animals raised on uncontaminated land outside the zone. Gaschak and the team examined the blood of the two groups of animals, expecting to find some evidence of differing levels of radiation exposure; they found none. “We could not explain it,” he says.

        What I personally get is 1) awe that they exist without overt mutations, and 2) Many, many more questions need to be answered…

        Reply
      • Eric Thurston

         /  October 10, 2015

        A related article at ThinkProgress: Why am I not surprised?

        Study Links Fracking To Premature Births, High-Risk Pregnancies

        http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/10/09/3710635/fracking-linked-to-preterm-births/

        Reply
  48. redskylite

     /  October 9, 2015

    Sea level rise is going to cause much havoc in low lying Bangladesh and millions of people will suffer in the coming decades . .

    We’ve known this for many years, but thanks “The Diplomat” it does no harm to remind us all.

    “While it is impossible to predict with complete accuracy how many people will be displaced by climate change, the best current estimates state that rising sea levels alone will displace 18 million Bangladeshis within the next 40 years. ”

    http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/climate-crisis-in-bangladesh/

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  October 9, 2015

      Not a bad source, I keep an eye on it also. Sometimes the only source of information from the developing Nations in the wider Asian area

      Reply
  49. redskylite

     /  October 9, 2015

    Not sure what is worse – sea level rise – or temperatures rise (especially in the tropics). Certainly the future does not hold a rosy warm paradise that some envisage.

    “This could be the first epidemic directly caused by global warming,” Johnson said. “Some districts of Nicaragua have been called the `land of widows’ due to the high mortality rates occurring among the male workers from chronic kidney disease.”

    http://www.9news.com/story/news/health/2015/10/08/mysterious-disease-may-be-tied-to-climate-change/73584344/

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  October 9, 2015

      Chemicals and pollutants.? Note male WORKERS

      Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  October 9, 2015
      Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 9, 2015

        This is a case(I have followed human medical literature and studies for 30+ years) where one has to go read the study and see methodology and data…from what I read, there are confounding factors that make the conclusion by this scientist of the headline: “climate change induced chronic kidney failure” irresponsible, imo…..for starters, there was no data in the paper showing the increased temps(in these specific areas) over time for him to support his statement. The study did not show a clear, significant difference in rates of CKD among coastal and higher elevation populations of men working in the sugar fields.

        From the paper:

        Although the results showed some indications towards stronger effects in the coastal region, the differences were smaller than we had antici- pated. The reason for this may be that within a group of workers from a specific region there are large differences in work load, water intake, and individual factors. In addition, as shown in Ta- ble 4, although the WBGT tended to be lower in the highest alti- tude region, the mean number of work hours was longer in this region.

        And previous use of carba- mate insecticides was more common among the 23 workers with reduced eGFR, but we had no a priori hypothesis regarding this specific chemical group of pesticides. It should, however, be ex- amined further. Interestingly, elevated serum uric acid levels were very common, even more common than in patients starting kidney replacement therapy

        I point this out because one of the problems I’ve noted among some climate change activists is the tendency to exaggerate and mislead—–the “2.1 Trillion divestment” headline by esteemed activists(Oreske) is a most recent example—the consequences of which are pretty obvious to all here…

        The most significant finding, imo, was that these workers work at much higher wet bulb temps than their US counterparts—with less rest breaks, amt of water intake ingested is highly variable. We also don’t know, from the study, how well hydrated these workers kept themselves outside of their work hours. Which is not surprising—this is the way it’s always been for these workers. Add increased use of pesticides over the decades and other confounders(high home-distilled alcohol consumption–admission of accurate amounts of this in a study is also an issue–it’s a problem in studies everywhere) I just don’t see how he can make such a statement with the conviction he displayed.

        I’m curious what others take on this study is.

        What I most from it is that these workers(just like ours in the Central Valley of CA) need better protections that are enforced—more water supplied, more breaks, and protection from the sun and pesticides they handle/inhale…And given the anticipation of hotter average temps due to climate change, these protections become even more important…

        http://www.researchgate.net/publication/280312434_Heat_stress_dehydration_and_kidney_function_in_sugarcane_cutters_in_El_Salvador__A_cross-shift_study_of_workers_at_risk_of_Mesoamerican_nephropathy

        Reply
  50. Reply
    • – A graphic comparison photo above:
      Mass global bleaching likely to come up when @NOAA chief Sullivan talks to #SEJ2015 Friday plenary on climate

      Reply
  51. rustj2015

     /  October 9, 2015

    Another violent change approaching Alaska:
    Ex-Hurricane Oho Going Where Few Hurricanes Have Gone Before: Alaska
    “Hurricane Oho maintained Category 2 strength on Thursday over a region of ocean well to the northeast of Hawaii where no hurricane that strong had ever been observed (Figure 2.) Since 1949, just ten Central Pacific tropical cyclones have pushed north of 34°N, and four of those storms occurred in 2014 and 2015–and latest model runs point to the possibility of a fifth storm joining the club, tropical disturbance Invest 95E, which is organizing in the waters to the east of Hawaii today.”
    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3150

    Reply
    • – I had a feeling that this sort of storm track was possible — and in the making. Not a good sign though.
      The massive Tar Sand holding ponds, etc. are not too far inland.
      CB noted the vulnerabilities a while back. Now we have a new delivery system.
      Permafrost likely to become ‘perma-slush’ just as much Arctic ice is now slushy.
      2015.
      JM: “Alaska and British Columbia are on alert to receive a very unusual dose of tropical weather…”

      Reply
    • A pertinent paragraph from JM:

      Climate change may increase the number of Hawaiian hurricanes

      The amazingly active Hawaiian hurricane seasons of 2014 and 2015 could well be a harbinger of the future, as I discussed in a 2014 blog post, Climate Change May Increase the Number of Hawaiian Hurricanes. A 2013 modeling study published in Nature Climate Change, “Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii”, found that global warming is expected to increase the incidence of tropical storms and hurricanes in Hawaii. Lead author Hiroyuki Murakami, from the International Pacific Research Center at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, commented in a press release accompanying the paper: “Historically, only every four years on average did a tropical cyclone come near Hawaii. Our projections for the end of this century show a two-to-three-fold increase for this region.”

      Reply
  52. – Seattle, WA:
    (Also, there should be a HAZARDOUS MATERIAL sticker on the vehicle itself.)

    Pump gas, get warning you’re harming the earth?

    The Seattle City Council may consider legislation requiring stickers on gas pumps to warn drivers that burning fuel contributes to climate change.
    http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/seattle-gas-pumps-may-sport-climate-warning/

    Reply
    • Something like: “THE SURGEON GENERAL HAS DETERMINED THAT OPERATING THIS VEHICLE IS HAZARDOUS TO YOUR HEALTH AND ALL CREATION’S.”

      I would have put in Biosphere, but you have to give at least a bone to the Christians.

      Reply
  53. – Algae, N nutrient dependent algae again — you know it’s serious if it impedes commerce:

    Algae costly to tourism industry
    Lakeside leaders question blooms’ effect on business

    Widespread algae blooms in Lake Erie during the summer have Port Clinton and other lakeside community and business leaders worried about how the algae will affect tourism, which generates $12.9 billion annually in Ohio’s eight lakefront counties.
    https://www.toledoblade.com/local/2015/10/09/Algae-costly-to-tourism-industry.html

    Reply
  54. Abel Adamski

     /  October 9, 2015

    Concerning update from OZ
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/09/bp-oil-spill-in-great-australian-bight-would-be-catastrophic-modelling-shows?google_editors_picks=true#comment-61089859

    Perspective from a knowledgeable commentor

    “Some final eco-facts on the Great Australian Bight:
    What is called the “Great Southern Australian Upwelling of Cold Water and Nutrients” occurs in the Bight. This is Australia’s only deep reaching coastal upwelling system where nutrient rich cold water from deeper than 300m comes to surface layers of the Bight over a massive area of the Bight. Hence Southern Right Whales calve there, Blue and Sperm Whales forage there, as do Great White Sharks. Australian Sea Lions breed there and Bluefin Tuna feed on the proliferation of smaller prey fish which in turn feed upon the huge upwellings of zooplankton. Of the 600 species of fish in Southern Australian waters, at least 370 occur in the BIght.
    In the Benthic and Littoral areas of the Bight one of the greatest assemblages of macroalgae in the world occur, with over 90% of the species found in Australia occurring there- over 1200 species. The great nutrient upwelling and the oceanic and coastal currents which drive it are unique in Australia, other than a smaller upwelling more recently found off Western Tasmania.
    Finally I have sailed in both Bass Strait with it’s short steep seas (it is very trying sailing) and in the Great Australian Bight with it’s oceanic swells and perpetual westerly and south-westerly winds. They are totally different in many ways, but particularly in the Bight’s variety of sea birds, marine mammals and just the feeling of open wilderness ocean which the Bight has- not to downplay Bass Strait, though: it has it’s own magic.

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  October 9, 2015

      Sorry should have mentioned BP is planning to drill in the Bight and has made applications

      Reply
    • Sunkensheep

       /  October 10, 2015

      Hey BP apparently wants to do deepwater drilling in the Bight. My understanding of ocean currets in the area they are exploring is that depending on the time of year, a spill could be spread along the continental shelf, effecting one, two or possibly three of our most productive fisheries as well as a couple of significant marine parks, and a Ramsar treaty protected river delta.

      It’s almost like messing up the Gulf of mexico wasn’t goid enough for them. I’m sure the TPP prevents us from regulating them or even forcing payment of damages in the event of a leak.

      Reply
  55. Abel Adamski

     /  October 9, 2015

    Of course CO2 is plant food and will increase food stocks and feed the starving poor
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/pumpkin-lovers-face-slim-pickings-thanks-to-climate-change/

    State climatologist links conditions to rising temperatures
    Weather data appear to support Bakus. Over the past century, Illinois has seen a 10 percent increase in precipitation, along with increases in heavier rain events. Within the past decade, from 2005 to 2012, the state has experienced either very wet conditions or drought, according to Jim Angel, a state climatologist for the Illinois State Water Survey, part of the Prairie Research Institute at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.

    “We’re fairly certain that’s tied to climate change. The hard part is figuring out the impact of these weather events. We’re also in this era of more variability, with a record wet spring and record dry August, and that makes it much harder to plan for when you have some years that are very dry and some that are very wet,” he said.

    Shh, keep it secret.
    Wet conditions do more than limit growth, they can also create an environment ideal for the spread of potentially devastating plant diseases like phytophthora blight and downy mildew, said Mohammad Babadoost, a plant pathologist and extension specialist at UI Urbana-Champaign.

    Reply
  56. Colorado Bob

     /  October 9, 2015

    Monster forest fires in last great wilderness have begun global ecological disaster

    CATACLYSMIC forest fires are sparking a global ecological and social disaster as they rage through one of the last great wildernesses.

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/610404/Forest-fires-Indonesia-Borneo-wildlife-Malaysia-orangutan-species

    Reply
    • Sunkensheep

       /  October 10, 2015

      In many cases, logging / cash cropping outfits (some illegal) light fires to clear land with alsmost no fire control experience. In the dried out, heat-stressed tropical forests, the fire spreads rapidly out of control. Even worse is the loggers rarely report the fire because a) it was illegal to begin with and b) they don’t care much. By the time news reaches central authorities, the fire has grown significantly, and is a real challenge to contain.

      They should possibly use a tool like MODIS to find the initial fires and employ offensive water bombing (hah!) agaist the perpetrators.

      Reply
  57. Colorado Bob

     /  October 9, 2015

    SC flooding expected to hit some farm crops hard

    Heavy rain and flooding in the Carolinas and other parts of the Southeast are expected to result in significant losses to peanut, soybean and cotton crops — and the damage could extend to the region’s tobacco and poultry operations, according to officials.

    “We anticipate huge losses in peanuts and cotton, probably a lot of losses also going to be in soybeans,” said Harry Ott, state executive director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s South Carolina Farm Service Agency. “We have sweet potatoes under water that need to be harvested right now (and) we are going to experience losses in them.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/08/-expected-to-hit-some-farm-crops-hard.html

    Reply
  58. In late September, the Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) of Indonesia hit a record high of 2,300, recorded in the province of Central Kalimantan. More than 28 million people in Indonesia alone are affected by the crisis, and more than 140,000 reported respiratory illness.

    At least eight of the ten countries in the ASEAN region have been affected by the haze, including southern Thailand and Vietnam, and most parts of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. The haze in Cambodia and at Cebu in the Philippines is also suspected to have arisen from Indonesian rather than local sources.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Southeast_Asian_haze

    Reply
  59. Colorado Bob

     /  October 9, 2015

    Strong El Niño Expected to Last Through Winter and Into Spring, NOAA Says

    Tropical meteorologist Dr. Phil Klotzbach said that sea surface temperature anomalies in the region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean meteorologists examine for El Niño were the warmest on record for September, 0.07 degrees Celsius warmer than 1997.

    http://www.wunderground.com/news/strong-el-nino-noaa-update-october2015

    Reply
  60. Hi all, inspired by Robert, I wrote a short summary for Desdemona Despair. You can check the graphs here:

    This short article aims to show that we may be experiencing an increased rate of sea level rise, somewhere between 4-5 mm/year. This rate of increase will probably be only faster going forward.

    Are we experiencing exponentially increasing sea level rise?

    best,

    Alex

    Reply
  61. Also,

    did anybody noticed that Jim Hansen changed his SLR graph (SLR according Church et al.) used by Robert in this article?

    best,

    Alex

    Reply
    • I’ve been hoping to see it based upon the Hay paper, which showed an average if 1.2mm – most of the 20th century.

      Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  October 10, 2015

      Good catch, Alexander. 3.3mm/yr up from 3.1 for ’93 forward….

      Reply
  62. Colorado Bob

     /  October 9, 2015

    Deadly Worldwide Coral Bleaching Episode Underway–Earth’s 3rd on Record

    Earth is entering its third worldwide coral bleaching event of the last 20 years–a disturbing example of how a warming planet can harm vital ecosystems–NOAA announced on Thursday. NOAA also released an eight-month outlook that projects even more bleaching to come in 2016. The only other global-scale bleachings in the modern era of observations happened in 1998 and 2010. Global bleaching is defined as an event that causes bleaching in each of the planet’s major coral-reef areas. “We may be looking at losing somewhere in the range of 10 to 20 percent of the coral reefs this year,” NOAA coral reef watch coordinator Mark Eakin said, in an interview with Associated Press. Florida started getting hit in August. The middle Florida Keys aren’t too bad, but in southeast Florida, bleaching has combined with disease to kill corals, Eakin said. It has also hit Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic and is about to hit Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, he said, adding, “you kill coral, you destroy reefs, you don’t have a place for the fish to live.”

    Link

    Reply
  63. Colorado Bob

     /  October 9, 2015

    U.S. logs second warmest September on record; West Coast heat in 2015 is busting through charts

    Much warmer than normal conditions covered the country from coast to coast last month, and the Lower 48 registered its second warmest September on record.

    Only September 1998 was warmer.

    “Record and near-record warmth spanned most of the country, with nine states in the Northeast, Midwest, and Southwest record warm,” reported NOAA, which released its September State of the Climate report today for the U.S..

    Link

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  October 9, 2015

      California, in particular, has seen temperatures at unprecedented levels this year in the modern record.

      “It’s a totally new environment out there,” tweeted Eric Holthaus, meteorologist for Slate.com.

      Reply
      • – It’s that latitudinal warming migrating northward. CA now has Mexico’s climate just as the PNW now has CA’s.
        I don’t see much that can stop it. The weather is broken. We broke it.

        Reply
        • “The weather is broken. We broke it.”

          As the Russian President Vladimir Putin said to the USA before the UN, applies here as well: «Вы хоть понимаете теперь, чего вы натворили?» which better translates as: “How can you even now fail to understand what a mess you have made?” Applies to the weather as well, and the capitalists, the leaders and the masses who broke it, thanks to the USA’s addiction to and then and now dependency on, the Happy Motoring! lifestyle. And who were the pushers back in the 30s…?😉😐😦😡

      • Wharf Rat

         /  October 10, 2015

        “California, in particular, has seen temperatures at unprecedented levels this year”

        Hey, leaders lead, for worse or better. That’s what we do.

        California Governor to Sign Aggressive Climate-Change Bill

        State aims to increase renewable electricity use to 50%, make buildings more energy efficient
        photo caption…
        California Gov. Jerry Brown, left, spoke with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sept. 27 about climate change. The governor has met with leaders around the world on the issue

        http://www.wsj.com/articles/california-governor-to-sign-aggressive-climate-change-bill-1444191256

        Reply
  64. – More out of the ordinary incidents of nutrient (N) dependent algae in USA – Portland,ME & Sacramento, CA.

    SOUTH PORTLAND, Maine —Beachgoers in South Portland say a “carpet of green” recently took over Willard Beach.

    A research associate said what people were seeing was green algae, which is a normal, good thing. Experts said excess nutrients, mainly nitrogen, caused the algae bloom.
    [ “excess nutrients [N] ” are NORMAL?]
    -wmtw.com/news/algae-bloom-blamed — WMTW Portland Oct 09, 2015
    #

    [Global warming AND continued N deposition contamination.]

    Health officials warn people, pets away from water with blue-green algae

    Dog dies Monday after swimming off Sacramento city beach
    Sacramento officials placing warning signs on city beaches
    Blue-green algae in water may cause rapid death if swallowed

    “We’re advising the public to stay away from water with foam, scum or mats,”

    The presence of nitrogen and phosphorous, which are chemicals common in areas with agricultural activity, also create favorable conditions for the algal blooms.

    “If global warming has the impact that we expect, then yes, we can expect more of this,” said Rogers.
    [“Global warming” AND continued N deposition contamination.]

    Between 1978 and 2008, only three harmful freshwater algal outbreaks were reported nationwide to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Between 2009 and 2010, 11 outbreaks were reported.

    [Dogs and dog feces are also generally loaded with N.]

    sacbee.com/news/local/environment/article38250372 October 8, 2015

    Reply
    • – N and Koch Nitrogen/Industries influence via ALEC to legislators re fossil fuel etc.
      Social damage and our climate being sacrificed for these ‘jobs’ — it’s a ‘job’ alright.

      ‘Work on the Koch Industries nitrogen plant northwest of Beatrice brought approximately 1,000 workers to the area, but also brought several complaints for area law enforcement.

      Sheriff Millard “Gus” Gustafson said during Monday morning’s Gage County Board committee meetings that since the work began in June, the area of West Hickory Road has been the subject of numerous complaints.

      “I don’t think I’ve ever had that many before on traffic issues,” Gustafson said. “We’re working through that process.”

      Gustafson said according to the most recent statistics, since the work began there have been 11 citations, six warnings, three reported crashes and three arrests – all for driving under the influence.

      “We had a lot of complaints since they started doing the upgrade at Koch nitrogen,

      http://beatricedailysun.com/news/local/plant-work-results-in-citations/article_a72de55a-06b5-5678-92c7-f99518a496b6.html

      Reply
  65. Maria

     /  October 9, 2015

    Is anyone else hearing a short but noticeable Halloween type recording of sounds on this page? I am—is this Robert’s way of getting us into the spirit of the season?

    Reply
  66. The oceans are becoming too hot for coral, and sooner than we expected

    “Understanding the sensitivity of reef-building corals to elevated temperatures allows us to ask the question: if sea temperatures are increasing, when does it get too hot for corals every year in the future? I did this some years ago and came up with the answer that most oceans get too hot for their corals on a yearly basis by 2040-2050.

    At the time, this was quite shocking – the idea that corals would be eliminated by mid-century. All those species, all those resources for people.

    The problem is, I was only accounting for a doubling of greenhouse gases, as opposed to the tripling or more under the current business-as-usual approach, and the models used for estimating future sea temperatures didn’t account for more frequent extreme El Niño. And if so, then my original projections of when the oceans become too hot for coral reefs are too optimistic!”

    https://theconversation.com/the-oceans-are-becoming-too-hot-for-coral-and-sooner-than-we-expected-48832

    Reply
  67. Colorado Bob

     /  October 10, 2015

    Now we beat the okld dead dog –

    Reply
  68. Colorado Bob

     /  October 10, 2015

    Now the time has come.

    Reply
  69. Colorado Bob

     /  October 10, 2015

    Molly Hatchet – Flirtin’ With Disaster

    Reply
  70. Colorado Bob

     /  October 10, 2015

    Just so you don’t think I’m a total bummer –
    Pure Prairie League Kansas City Southern

    Reply
  71. Colorado Bob

     /  October 10, 2015

    Funny how the whole world bir us all on the ass.

    Buckle your chin strap kids.

    Reply
  72. -Mis-posted to previous page;
    Toxic road runoff kills adult coho salmon in hours, study finds

    A new study shows that stormwater runoff from urban roadways is so toxic to coho salmon that it can kill adult fish in as little as 2½ hours.

    Scientists have long suspected that the mixture of oil, heavy metals and grime that washes off highways and roads can be poisonous to coho, but the study is the first to prove it.

    http _www.seattletimes.com_seattle-news_environment_whats-killing-coho-study-points-to-urban-road-runoff_ utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=article_left

    Reply
  73. – Mis-posted to previous page:

    California agency votes to ban SeaWorld orca breeding

    LONG BEACH, Calif. (AP) — The California Coastal Commission on Thursday approved a $100 million expansion of the tanks SeaWorld uses to hold killer whales in San Diego — but it banned breeding of the captive orcas that would live in them.

    Animal rights activists praised the decision as a death blow to the use of killer whales at the California ocean park.

    The vote “ensures that no more orcas will be condemned to a nonlife of loneliness, deprivation and misery,” said a statement from People from the Ethical Treatment of Animals.

    http://www.seattletimes.com/business/california-agency-votes-to-ban-seaworld-orca-breeding/

    Reply
  74. Air Pollution in the World: Real time Air Quality map

    http://waqi.info/

    Reply
    • rustj2015

       /  October 10, 2015

      The good air collects where there’s something like astro-turf, or dollar bills. Er, it’s an image problem, I guess.
      See The Visitor.

      Reply
  75. “A team of researchers that includes University of Alaska Fairbanks professors has developed a model to predict the amount of carbon that will be released to the atmosphere from the thawing permafrost soils.

    The new model confirms earlier studies, which predicted persistent and significant carbon emissions, but the scientists reached their conclusions in a new and more direct way, according to a paper describing the research published this week in the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society.”

    https://www.adn.com/article/20151009/researchers-design-simplified-model-permafrosts-climate-impact

    Reply
  76. Some great photos –

    Altai basks in 27c heat – ‘Second Spring’ arrives with rhododendron blossoming for the second time in 2015.

    http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/news/n0444-autumn-cancelled-in-southern-siberia-as-altai-basks-in-27c-heat/

    Reply
  77. Some more evidence that we have broken the weather:

    Reply
    • – What a mess, Ed-M. I had no idea France was that impacted. This ‘2015 is Strange’ video production effort is excellent work on terrible events. Thanks for passing it along.
      It is good to see mountains of cars piled in wild arrays in the flood waters as a fitting signal of what propelled the huge influx of carbon into the atmosphere for the last many decades.
      Of course all the wheeled toxic boxes are oozing fluids and petroleum onto the landscape, etc.
      Much of the areas impacted in the USA, because of sewage and industrial, or slaughterhouse activities, must boil their drinking water, etc.

      – PDX USA today is balmy warn. The air is thick, and thick with emissions as the clouds keep the crap low. The average driver polluter acts in total disregard.

      Reply
      • You’re very welcome, dtlange.

        The curator of these 2015 Is Strange videos, Last Messages, has been doing this since 2011 but a lot of his videos from 2012 & 2013, and all or nearly all from 2011 got wiped out when his first YouTube channel got deleted by the website administrators when someone complained he was using their content without permission. Fortunately, some didn’t get wiped out because others copied and pasted his vids to their YouTube channels!

        While you’re balmy warm, here in New Orleans it’s overcast with a swampy smell (winds from the NW = Bayou Manchac) and downright chilly! This is after a week of warm temps the last two days unseasonably hot.

        Reply
      • rustj2015

         /  October 11, 2015

        “It is good to see mountains of cars piled in wild arrays in the flood waters as a fitting signal of what propelled the huge influx of carbon into the atmosphere for the last many decades.”
        Words that will appear as judgment or prophecy, though they are an echo since the time that they appeared.

        Reply
    • – The steady slow moving video footage shot from drones is very good.

      Reply
      • Yes, filming by private citizens is one of the best (less evil) uses for drones. The quality of footage made with a steady hand is excellent!

        Reply
  78. – Anthropogenic eutrophication: As global warming continues unabated and, usually nitrogen nutrients are added to our biosphere algae grows more plentiful in more locations. All alerts caution against contact whereas prevention is key. This is the case with toxic aerosol pollution as well.

    Toxic algae blooms intensified in NY bodies of water in 2015
    Friday, October 9, 2015

    In the summer, a toxic mix of chemicals overtakes the water, creating a thick algae bloom that annually lands the pond on a New York State Department of Environmental Conservation warning list.

    DEC recommends avoiding contact with the blooms, which produce toxins harmful to humans and animals.

    This year was a record year for algae blooms, with at least 126 outbreaks in 87 bodies of water.
    http://www.thedailynewsonline.com/news/article_46281cb0-6f00-11e5-8a74-934a3f91f9b6.html

    Reply
  79. Africa
    Tanzania closing hydropower plants

    Hydro-electricity generation has fallen to 20% of capacity, making it difficult for the dams to operate.
    It is the first time the East African nation has closed all hydro plants, which generate 35% of its electricity.

    The power crisis has been made worse by problems at new natural gas plants, an energy ministry official told the BBC.

    The closing of the hydropower dams was beyond the government’s control, said Badra Masoud, head of communication at the ministry.
    “We cannot do anything because of the changes in environment – we are not getting enough rain.”
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-34491984

    Reply
  80. Naomi Oreske penned an Op-ed in the NYT re: Inside Climate News’ findings about Exxon. Nice.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/10/opinion/exxons-climate-concealment.html?ref=opinion&_r=1

    Reply
  81. redskylite

     /  October 10, 2015

    Also excellent article in the New York Times today about climate education in the states. I’m really not very happy with the way many of the current generation of politicians (in most worldwide democratic countries) are dealing and cooperating with the ever closer “dangerous climate change” approaching. As a nearly 70 y.o my big hope is that more educated children will grow up assume power and we will really start getting back in balance. There are too many obstacles today with the present generation of leaders.

    Thank god for the teachers too . . . they do an amazing job . .

    Teaching the Truth About Climate Change. .

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/teaching-the-truth-about-climate-change.html?ref=topics&_r=0

    Reply
  82. Chuck Hughes

     /  October 11, 2015

    Hello Robert, I just wanted to say thank you for all of your dedication and hard work. I share your posts with friends on a regular basis and get many complements on your writing and ability to explain complex concepts so us regular folks can understand. I’ve noticed that you’re not posting as frequently as you usually do which is fine. You do more than enough as it is but I hope everything is okay. You’re an important voice in the climate dialogue and public discourse. Your insights are much needed. Keep up the great work. Thanks.

    Reply
  83. Abel Adamski

     /  October 11, 2015

    The effects are rolling on
    http://phys.org/news/2015-10-horn-africa-faster-climate.html

    Also an article re Tanzania cutting off Hydro generation due to low water to come

    Reply
  84. Abel Adamski

     /  October 11, 2015

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/tanzania/11923748/Tanzania-turns-off-hydropower-as-drought-bites.html

    anzania is shutting down all its hydropower plants because drought is causing low water levels in its dams, plunging the country deep into an electricity crisis.

    The East African nation relies on water to produce more than a third of its power.

    However, the plants struggle to operate during the monsoon season or periods of poor rainfall.

    With water levels low, shutting off production protects the machinery from damage caused by air getting into the system.

    George Simbachawene, the Minister for Energy and Minerals, said black-outs would end in a fortnight and asked for the population to be patient.

    “Since we gained independence we have never run out of water to the levels we are seeing today. We must make this most difficult decision of completely switching off the hydro-power plants,” he said, according to The Citizen newspaper.

    He added that some dams had almost completely dried out.

    Reply
  85. Abel Adamski

     /  October 11, 2015

    An interesting article on hydroelectricity being a major Methane Generator
    http://ecowatch.com/2015/10/06/hydropower-methane-bomb/
    The principal environmental menace of hydroelectric dams is caused by organic material—vegetation, sediment and soil—that flows from rivers into reservoirs and decomposes, emitting methane and carbon dioxide into the water and the air throughout the generation cycle. Studies indicate that in tropical environments and high-sediment areas, where organic material is highest, dams can release more greenhouse gas than coal-fired power plants. Philip Fearnside, a research professor at the National Institute for Research in the Amazon, in Manaus, Brazil, and one of the most cited scientists on the subject of climate change, has called these dams “methane factories.” And, according to Brazil’s National Institute of Space Research, dams are “the largest single anthropogenic source of methane, being responsible for 23 percent of all methane emissions due to human activities.”

    Reply
    • dnem

       /  October 11, 2015

      Interesting and troubling article. And the article does not even mention the damage that dams cause to free running rivers, habitat values and, often, human settlements.

      Reply
    • Eric Thurston

       /  October 11, 2015

      It seems like the organic matter that collects in reservoirs and decomposes would, if the dam wasn’t there, decompose anyway emitting its methane from the ocean. Or am I missing something?

      Reply
      • Abel Adamski

         /  October 12, 2015

        I too considered that Eric, I suspect the answer is in the difference between our landscape and rivers to the way they were before we blundered along.
        Regular flooding of flood plains depositing the organic material as rich soil, wetlands ( A major Carbon Sink), River Deltas and their wetlands.
        Complex interactive equation, however our usage has created slow moving lakes/dams and regulated rapid flow and deposit into the oceans whilst we control the river mouth location and overbuild and drain the delta’s as we drain the wetlands

        Reply
  86. Abel Adamski

     /  October 11, 2015

    A solution to the Algae problem in the offing.?, some smart lateral thinking. Create a demand for the stuff and money to be made and it will become endangered
    http://techxplore.com/news/2015-10-scientists-algal-blooms-high-performance-battery.html

    Reply
  87. Wharf Rat

     /  October 11, 2015

    The origins of the QBO

    by
    Webster Hubble Telescope

    The global warming denier Richard Lindzen from MIT came up with a theory for the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric winds (think jet-stream altitude) in the 1960’s. As far as I can tell, his theory has not really been debunked. But since Lindzen is a crackpot known for other outlandish theories (such as his insane Iris cloud theory), it is likely that his QBO theory is of crank quality as well.

    So it is apropos to report that Lindzen’s 50 year old theory is debunked completely in this blog post.

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/11/1430653/-The-origins-of-the-QBO#

    Reply
    • Thanks for that. The idea is that forcing is a significant factor in climate varability, which aligns with CO2 forcing as a primary long-term climate change factor.

      Even though he is an MIT professor, Lindzen doesn’t act like a scientist as much as a contrarian. He seems to develop all these crackpot theories to show how gullible his fellow scientists are. He has been quoted as saying they don’t have the “brightest minds”.

      Science is really about building on the work of others, not what Lindzen is doing. There is something really odd about Lindzen’s behavior all these years.

      Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  October 11, 2015

      WR
      Very informative and interesting blog and extremely relevant

      Reply
      • WebHubTelescope

         /  October 11, 2015

        Thanks. Avoid reading the comments though. There is a contingent of people that act as “gatekeepers of science” and will knee-jerk all they read with the response “correlation does not equal causation”.

        Most of the people participating in this blog aren’t climate scientists, but nothing prevents us from looking at the data from a fresh perspective.

        Reply
      • Abel Adamski

         /  October 12, 2015

        WHT
        Actually on the YOUTUBE link I was diverted into the stonehenge/elongated skulls video by my interest in mythology as a oral history of antiquity, most interesting, fits the ancient Celtic legends mainly from Scotland, Ireland, Wales etc when they conquered/over ran the Picts and there were those mysterious people of the mist in their long robes(The Tuatha etc) who were peaceful and “magical” who vanished. Interesting the tie in with the megalithic civilisations and living in harmony with the world and the people of the elongated skulls and that Stonehenge and other similar close centres appeared to be Healing/medical centres in the early versions pre the genocide, especially the genocide of them as uncovered in the Barrows of Stonehenge etc.

        Sorry for OT, but we can live in harmony and have advanced sciences and technology, whether we do is another matter as that genocide and secrecy over those skulls suggests

        Reply
  88. Wharf Rat

     /  October 11, 2015

    Salt-water intrusion 20 miles west of me…

    The drought is so bad in one California town that restaurants can’t wash dishes

    The city declared a stage three water emergency after measuring high salinity levels at the municipal water treatment plant, according to the Press Democrat in Santa Rosa, Calif. That happens when the local Noyo River gets so low it can’t push back the ocean water that seeps in at high tide, tainting the local water supply.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/10/08/the-drought-is-so-bad-in-one-california-town-that-restaurants-cant-wash-dishes/

    Reply
  89. Wharf Rat

     /  October 11, 2015

    Judges plan to outlaw climate change ‘denial’

    A semi-secret, international conference of top judges proposed to make illegal any opinion that contradicted climate change

    We might think that a semi-secret, international conference of top judges, held in the highest courtroom in Britain, to propose that it should be made illegal for anyone to question the scientific evidence for man-made global warming, was odd enough to be worthy of front-page coverage.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11924776/Judges-plan-to-outlaw-climate-change-denial.html

    Reply
    • I believe this article to be misleading. Below is a posted response to it with a link to a more sober and nuanced report –

      Please can people stop being alarmed by Booker! There is no talk of outlawing scepticism or even denial of mainstream science. The symposium Booker refers to is this one. http://www.kcl.ac.uk/law/newse

      The ‘Adjudicating the Future: Climate Change and the Rule of Law’ symposium hosted by King’s College London (17-19 September) was an event jointly organised by a number of organisations and designed for open and critical academic debate. The debate centred on how courts are adjudicating, and can adjudicate, on climate change-related problems that are increasingly appearing before courts. Parts of the symposium were open to the public, talks were publicised and some streamed live, and related documents have been published online.

      The event remit was not to endorse particular solutions, legislative or otherwise, but in recognition of the increasing amount of climate change-related cases being brought before courts worldwide in different areas of law and legal practice.
      Do not be alarmed! Booker is not right. Again.

      Reply
  90. Abel Adamski

     /  October 11, 2015

    Slightly OT but I feel worthy of mention because of the results/research mechanism’s involved
    http://health.thewest.com.au/news/2321/could-a-150-pill-stop-bowel-cancer

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  October 11, 2015

      Ties in with Wharf Rats earlier post/link
      https://robertscribbler.com/2015/10/06/were-gonna-need-a-bigger-graph-global-sea-level-rise-just-went-off-the-chart/#comment-53503
      “Lidzens Gentleman Scientist”, coming back to have a nibble at the rump at the economic research modelling and the Wannabe hero’s of science, just little people looking at results and going back to basics.
      Interestingly many of the formula’s for ancient Chinese medicines were discovered in the Ming tombs etc and have been patented by Big Pharma since the 80’s, a factor in the TPP agreements to maintain the Pharma profits.?

      Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 12, 2015

      Hi Abel, my sister had colon cancer(9 years out) and I read this piece with interest.

      It is an impressively rigorously designed study and they may be on to something real.

      A few cautionary notes apart from the small n.

      I looked at the Duke Stage distribution of their patients. It looks like, overall, the artesunate group had less sick patients than the placebo. More stage B’s for example. And less stage C1. Because the n is so small—these could significantly impact the results.

      KI67 is a confusing protein regarding cancer biomarking—in some studies it’s shown to be a marker of the aggressiveness of colorectal cancer. High–>low aggression. Low—high. But other studies completely contradict these findings.

      Another issue is that, esp patients in the C1 or C2 stage, can have micrometastases that simply cannot be picked up until they form a critical mass. Since there were 6 recurrences( ultimately more deaths) at 42 months in the placebo group– which had 4 more C1 staged patients than the artesunate cohort, it makes me wonder if indeed the imbalance of C1 in both groups made the difference.

      I think it’s wonderful that old drugs are looked at for cancers and other diseases. If you google metformin and prostate cancer, you’ll see some impressive early stage studies that are also backed up by preclinical studies re: mechanisms of action confirming that there’s a valid biologic reason for these results. I wish all cancer scientists and their families the best of luck for this pernicious disease.

      http://www.ebiomedicine.com/article/S2352-3964%2814%2900034-6/fulltext#t0010

      Reply
  91. Colorado Bob

     /  October 12, 2015

    FEATURE-Climate change threatens future of Canada’s northern hunters

    In parts of the Northwest Territories, average annual temperatures have already risen more than 3 degrees Celsius (5.4°F) in the past two decades, a local politician said, impacting everything from housing, transport to caribou numbers. ………………………… Wildlife are particularly affected by the changes. The number of breeding females in one major caribou herd, a key population indicator, dropped by half between 2015 and 2012, the territorial government said in late September.

    In 1986, the herd was about 470,000 strong. Now it’s 16,000.

    Link

    Reply
  92. Kevin Jones

     /  October 12, 2015

    NASA GISS in with Sept.: .78C. Jan-Sept still at .81 making 2015 almost certainly the hottest year yet.

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  October 12, 2015

      Correction. Sept. comes in at .81 with updated ‘homogenization’. (my term) According to analysis on Hansen’s site.

      Reply
  93. Colorado Bob

     /  October 12, 2015

    Historic October Heat Shatters Records in Dakotas, Nebraska, Colorado

    Sunday took late-season heat to unheard-of extremes in parts of Colorado, Nebraska and the Dakotas. For much of the region, temperatures were higher than any on record for so late in the year.

    A few places were so hot that October 11 will go down as the hottest day of all of 2015 – an extraordinary feat in the central and northern Plains, where October is typically part of a rapid transition from summer’s heat to winter’s chill.

    North Dakota

    Fargo was one of the places where Sunday was hotter than any other day in 2015, surpassing the city’s high of 96 from Aug. 14. The mercury hit an astonishing 97 in Fargo, establishing several records:

    It was a new all-time record high for the month of October there, crushing the old record of 93 set Oct. 3, 1922, and Oct. 5, 1965.
    It was by far the latest 97-degree or hotter day in any calendar year in Fargo, beating the Dust Bowl-era record from 1936 by a margin of 19 days.
    Even more impressively, it appears to be hottest temperature ever recorded in the entire state of North Dakota on or after Oct. 11, beating a 95-degree reading taken in Buford on Oct. 11, 1911.

    Link

    Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 12, 2015

      “too big to fail.” Godzilla always is😉 ..since Patzert and Halpert have been among the most cautious in the media, this is saying alot, I think.

      Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  October 13, 2015

      Another interesting article re a toxic lake drying out
      http://www.latimes.com/science/la-me-salton-sea-20151001-story.html
      The message was stark: after 2017, the lake “falls off a cliff environmentally.” Toxic dust storms will increase markedly, and so will the chances of a rotten egg smell routinely wafting over much of coastal Southern California.

      The lake, which is 35 miles long and 15 miles wide, straddling Imperial and Riverside counties, serves as a sump for pesticide-laden irrigation runoff. It has been shrinking in recent years, even with the fresh water infusion. As the lake shrinks, thousands of acres that been underwater become exposed to the air.

      Dust storms carry fine particles over a wide area. Child asthma and emergency room rates in the region are among the highest in the state. For complex reasons, the sea’s shrinkage is outpacing predictions.

      “The fact is that the shoreline is receding dramatically,” Kelley told the water board.

      Reply
  94. Colorado Bob

     /  October 12, 2015

    Expanding the search for oil is necessary to pay for the damage caused by climate change, the Governor of Alaska has told the BBC.

    The state is suffering significant climate impacts from rising seas forcing the relocation of remote villages.

    Governor Bill Walker says that coping with these changes is hugely expensive.

    He wants to “urgently” drill in the protected lands of the Arctic National Wilderness Refuge to fund them.

    Link

    Reply
    • Wharf Rat

       /  October 12, 2015

      https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1024&bih=588&q=anal+retentive&oq=anal+retentive&gs_l=img.3..0.3431.7317.0.7740.14.6.0.8.8.0.124.670.0j6.6.0….0…1ac.1.64.img..0.14.696.cpQkC1E78xc#hl=en&tbm=isch&q=polar+bear+face+palm&imgrc=Cd4h1YTii24mhM%3A

      Reply
      • Wharf Rat

         /  October 12, 2015

        bad link… google images, polar bear facepalm

        Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  October 12, 2015

        It’s like selling crack to pay for your trip to rehab.

        Reply
        • Someone else said that on Twitter. I’d differ slightly–it’s more like selling crack to pay for your medical expenses from an overdose, so you can go on using. There is no rehab whatsoever involved here.

    • Ken Barrows

       /  October 12, 2015

      Is that the joke of the day? From The Onion?

      Reply
    • – AK: I’ve had this bit sitting around under the heading ‘Coal Emissions’ from the WaPo dated 2/14/09. It tells quite a bit.

      ‘Emissions from generating electricity account for the largest chunk of U.S. greenhouse gases, nearly 40 percent. Transportation emissions are close behind, contributing about one-third of U.S. production of carbon dioxide. States with mass transit and cities, such as New York, come out cleaner than those with wide expanses that rely solely on cars, trucks and airplanes, like Alaska.

      Alaska, which stands out for its carbon dioxide production, also stands out as one of the early victims of climate change. Its glaciers are melting, its permafrost thawing, and coastal and island villages will soon be swallowed by the sea. Alaska ranked No. 1 in per-person emissions for transportation, which includes driving, flying, shipping and rail traffic.’
      Washington Post 2/14/09

      Reply
      • – Exxon, FF, CO2 etcThis may have been linked to in the past, in one form or another — from July 2015:
        (As the ‘Industrial Revolution’ is usually a marker in CO2 CC, I tend to hone in on the car culture and all the FF burned in attendant activities — begat in the USA.)

        – Union of Concerned Scientists

        ‘The Climate Deception Dossiers
        Internal fossil fuel industry memos reveal decades of disinformation—a deliberate campaign to deceive the public that continues even today.’

        (This timeline link has more recent but relevant benchmarks.)

        Reply
    • First reaction, love it, taking stupid to a whole new level. Second reaction, not dissimilar to what we are likely to see in future from many countries threatened by climate impacts–e.g., Philippines, very hard hit by typhoons but betting heavily on coal for economic development.

      Reply
  95. Colorado Bob

     /  October 12, 2015

    Climate Change around the World

    Alexander Mulhern 12 Oct 2015

    Climate change is a planetary phenomenon, and it’s effects are many and varied. So we’ve put together this interactive map, showing the tangible effects currently attributed to climate change and the possible future scenarios we may see. Drag your way around the map and click on the points, you’ll find videos, images, facts and links to the original research!

    Link

    Reply
  96. Caroline

     /  October 12, 2015

    From: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/12/antarctic-ice-melting-so-fast-whole-continent-may-be-at-risk-by-2100

    “The new research predicts a doubling of surface melting of the ice shelves by 2050. By the end of the century, the melting rate could surpass the point associated with ice shelf collapse, it is claimed.”

    Can someone here please translate: “doubling of surface melting by 2015”—–i.e. what will THAT look like?

    Reply
  97. – The Guardian 10/11: “Papua New Guinea … prolonged drought has been exacerbated by sudden and severe frosts which have killed off almost all crops.”

    ‘El Niño southern oscillation’
    El Niño could leave 4 million people in Pacific without food or drinking water

    Papua New Guinea drought has already claimed two dozen lives and looming El Niño weather pattern could be as severe as in 1997-98, when 23,000 people died

    Two dozen people have already died from hunger and drinking contaminated water in drought-stricken Papua New Guinea, but the looming El Niño crisis could leave more than four million people across the Pacific without enough food or clean water.

    In Papua New Guinea’s Chimbu province in the highlands region, a prolonged drought has been exacerbated by sudden and severe frosts which have killed off almost all crops. The provincial disaster centre has confirmed 24 people have died from starvation and drinking contaminated water.
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/12/el-nino-could-leave-4-million-people-in-pacific-without-food-or-drinking-water?CMP=ema_565a

    Reply
  98. theguardian.com 10/12

    High in the Peruvian Andes a team of researchers from the University of Massachusetts have been maintaining a satellite-linked weather station on top of the Quelccaya ice cap since 2003. The goal of the station is to document the impact of a major El Niño weather system now affecting the world, specifically in the Pacific. It is expect to reach its peak by the end of 2015.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2015/oct/12/el-nino-ice-caps-peru-research-extreme-weather-video

    Reply
  99. Maria

     /  October 12, 2015

    Inside Climate News has an excellent visual/story using a sleeping tiger and its tail for its timeline of events.

    The Long Tale of Exxon and Climate Change.

    http://insideclimatenews.org/content/long-tale-exxon-and-climate-change

    They just might get another Pulitzer for this series.

    Reply
  100. – SLR, extreme rains and floods, TEPCO Fukushima etc.

    The photo of a flooded Missouri nuclear power plant from this Union of Concerned Scientists post of 10/06 re nuclear vulnerabilities as an illustration of likely possibilities from AGW:

    June 2011

    Reply
  101. Apneaman

     /  October 12, 2015

    Many fear the worst for humanity, so how do we avoid surrendering to an apocalyptic fate?

    http://theconversation.com/many-fear-the-worst-for-humanity-so-how-do-we-avoid-surrendering-to-an-apocalyptic-fate-47034

    Reply
    • wili

       /  October 13, 2015

      A quarter of the population in all the major anglophone countries think that humans will more than likely go extinct within this century! Pretty stunning figures. I wonder how the questions were worded.

      The end of the article, though, seems to be full of unsupported claims about human psychology and, frankly, psychobabble.

      Reply
      • wili

         /  October 13, 2015

        On reflection, I’m betting that nearly all that 24% that think humans are going away in the next very few years/decades are the Rapture folks, not the stalwart followers of McPherson and his ilk.

        Reply
  102. – N – harmful nitrogen dioxide aerosol pollution from fossil fuel combustion again is proving to be a chronic threat/thread. Most hospital zones suffer from this because of traffic density. Sad but true.

    ‘Air pollution levels around South Glasgow University Hospital to be monitored’

    The council will install equipment near the Queen Elizabeth University Hospital to assess the levels of harmful nitrogen dioxide.

    Figures released by Friends of the Earth last year showed air pollution was responsible for more than 300 deaths a year in Glasgow – more than obesity and traffic accidents.

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/13840567.Air_pollution_levels_around_South_Glasgow_University_Hospital_to_be_monitored/

    Reply
  103. – Schools and a City playground for children shares traffic dense US Highway 101 — including noise and toxic pollution.

    Reply
  104. Maria

     /  October 13, 2015

    Apologies if this is replicating one of CB’s posts re: Indonesia fires…El Niño’s impacts making it the worst season since the last big one in ’97.

    Much of western Indonesia is currently burning, producing enormous amounts of smoke-haze, and disrupting large parts of society in the region. Scientists are suggesting that this is not ‘normal’ seasonal burning and could end up ranking among the worst on record. This is one of the first severe impacts of the strong El Niño that has been developing over the last year.

    View story at Medium.com

    Reply
  105. Abel Adamski

     /  October 13, 2015

    More on the Impact on the oceans of CO2 and AGW
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-13/marine-analysis-climate-change-suggests-food-chain-collapse/6848892

    Published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, their analysis finds ocean warming and acidification are likely to reduce the diversity of marine species.

    “Our large-scale analysis suggests that many species will show a decrease in abundance, as well as diversity,” Associate Professor Ivan Nagelkerken said.

    Very few species will be able to cope with such conditions,” he warned.

    “We also found it’s much more likely that animals higher up the food [chain] — bigger predators and species — will be more affected by climate change than other species at the bottom.

    “Some species might benefit a bit — primary producers like plankton and algae — but the bigger fishery species probably will not.”

    The researchers forecast acidification would lead to a decline in dimethylsufide gas production by ocean plankton and said that gas helped cloud formation and control of the Earth’s heat exchange.

    “There will be a species collapse from the top of the food chain down,” the study’s authors warned.

    They said there seemed little scope for many marine species to adapt to the changes ahead.

    Reply
  106. Colorado Bob

     /  October 13, 2015

    Map Shows Where Sea Level Rise Will Drown American Cities

    After millions of computer experiments, they had some usable ratios of between carbon emissions to sea level rise. “One of the most astonishing things to me was finding that burning one gallon of gasoline translates to adding 400 gallons of water volume to the ocean in the long run,” he says.

    Link

    Reply
  107. Colorado Bob

     /  October 13, 2015

    No pesky EPA rules here –

    Toxic Foam Annual Occurence In India’s 3rd Largest City

    Residents of India’s third largest city, Bangalore, have become so tired of the white, toxic foam that occurs annually on several of the city’s lakes, they’ve threatened to breach the spillway of Bellandur Lake and cause the it to flood its banks, the Times of India reports.

    For the past few months, dirty foam from the highly polluted Bellandur lake has been bubbling over and flying into their homes, the paper reports. The civic authorities have not paid heed to their complaints, said residents, and so they are left with no option but to consider drastic action to get the government to sit up and take notice.

    The fluffy, white foam may look like a giant bubble bath, but it’s actually a toxic sludge distilled from raw sewage and other contaminants that have been spilling into the lakes for years.

    According to the Los Angeles Times, Lake Bellandur receives more than 130 million gallons per day of untreated or partially treated sewage from homes and industries across the city, while Inverse.com reports that Varthur Lake gets more than 100 million gallons of untreated sewage each day.

    Link

    Reply
    • – “Distilled”: but applies to many other situations I have devoted much thought and worry towards.

      “… toxic sludge distilled from raw sewage and other contaminants…”, this sort of uncontrolled chemical reaction applies to many environmental and atmospheric conditions in all regions of a very ‘toxified’ world. It can only get worse as the contaminants increase.

      Global warming will help by adding warmth to the medium.

      Heat from solar radiation acts like a Bunsen burner heating a beaker of whatever contaminant is on/in the landscape or atmosphere. Extreme weather events will cause many of these to change places, or forms, between gases, solids, and liquids.

      Mutations and some form of mimicry, or Batesian mimicry — or the inverse, can occur.

      Our ‘Pandora’s Box’ of pollutants is a hydra headed beast beyond our control.

      Many possibilities… or the inverse…

      Batesian mimicry —
      ‘Batesian mimicry is a phenomenon whereby unprotected prey species (called “mimics”) gain protection from predators by mimicking toxic or otherwise protected species (called “models”).’
      http://biodiversitylab.org/batesian-mimicry

      Reply
  108. Colorado Bob

     /  October 13, 2015

    Climate change could triple Amazon drought, study finds
    From the article –

    There have been three severe droughts in the Amazon in the past decade — one in 2005, one in 2010 and another one currently ongoing — that helped to inspire the study, …………………… Research estimated that the amount of carbon released as a result of the 2005 drought was more than the annual emissions of Europe and Japan combined, and the 2010 drought’s effects were even more severe, Duffy said.

    Link

    Reply
  109. Kevin Jones

     /  October 13, 2015

    NASA has combined land/ocean Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures for Sept. ’15 at +1.13C. Beating previous record of +.90C. (according to Accuweather report)

    Reply
  110. Colorado Bob

     /  October 13, 2015

    Seafood hit by climate change, Australian study finds

    “There will be a species collapse from the top of the food chain down.”

    The oceans have taken up about one third of all the world’s increased carbon dioxide emissions since 1750, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

    In the upper 75 metres of the ocean, the global average temperature has warmed by 0.11 degree celsius per decade over the past 40 years, the IPCC says.

    Meanwhile the World Meteorological Organisation says carbon dioxide input is increasing ocean acidity at a rate unprecedented in 300 million years – amounting to four kilograms of carbon dioxide per day, per person.

    Link

    Reply
    • ‘A global marine food chain collapse due to greenhouse gas emissions could hit many popular eating fish, an Australian study has found.

      Warmer waters, coupled with ocean acidification, mean that the higher a fish is up the food chain, the more imperilled it would be.’

      – Great — for many decades this has been an absolute certainty.

      And all the while obesity in the Western world has skyrocketed, and much foodstuffs are turned into dog and cat food.

      Reply
  111. Abel Adamski

     /  October 13, 2015

    Interestingly a good video by the CSIRO on a Murdoch News Ltd site
    http://www.news.com.au/video/id-l3bHQ0dDrTnSSTaim5KIPURqGO5rU7n5/The-Inertia-Trap

    Also I have been allowed to actually post informative comments on an Australian article and have them appear. ?
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/andrew-revkin-governments-need-to-take-panic-out-of-climate-change/story-e6frg6xf-1227565279112?sv=58b2e85a9af6aa0449dffd6b6859cbed

    The article itself was not a bad one (especially for a Murdoch publication)

    Reply
  112. Colorado Bob

     /  October 13, 2015

    Déjà Vu Again: Hot September Drives 2015 To Hottest Year On Record

    This was the hottest September by far in the dataset of the Japan Meteorological Agency, and second only to 2014 for hottest September in the NASA dataset.

    Link

    Reply
  113. Maria

     /  October 13, 2015

    I’ve been following Dr. Hansen’s open-access paper re: SLR. Since last week he’s been personally answering some comments. It’s above my level of understanding. And it’s too much material, I believe, to copy/paste. Here it is for anyone interested.

    http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd-15-20059-2015-discussion.html

    Reply
  114. Colorado Bob

     /  October 13, 2015

    RS –
    Do us all a favor and tell us how you are, I for one am worried sick.

    Reply
  115. California drought: New poll shows growing majority calls it ‘extremely serious’

    After four years of relentless drought, more Californians are worried about water shortages than ever, despite El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean that are boosting hopes for a wet winter.

    A new Field Poll released Tuesday showed that 76 percent of registered California voters now call the state’s water situation “extremely serious,” up from 66 percent in May and 60 percent in April 2014.
    http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_28961005/california-drought-new-poll-shows-growing-majority-calls

    Reply
  116. – Watch out — even the miaminewtimes.com is being out front:

    Even Under Best-Case Scenario, Sea-Level Rise Will Leave Miami Looking Like Florida Keys

    Reply
  117. – Honesty from China — Ozone pollution and [N] nitrogen oxides (NOx) — their manifest horrors are being documented:

    ‘Thousands dying in region from ozone pollution caused by warming, Chinese University study finds’

    Deadly ozone levels rising as emissions of fossil fuels increase, Chinese University study warns

    Regional warming in East Asia over the past 30 years has led to a rapid rise in surface ozone pollution that may have led to thousands of premature deaths a year, a Chinese University study found.

    The researchers warn the situation is likely to get worse as fossil fuel emissions increase.

    Ozone is formed by volatile organic compounds (VOCs) reacting with nitrogen oxides (NOx) from sources such as vehicles. The pollutant can cause breathing problems and serious lung disease.

    The study found that summertime temperatures in mainland China and surrounding regions had risen by up to 3 degrees Celsius over the past three decades, intensifying ozone in the lower atmosphere by 2 to 10 parts per billion by volume (ppbv).
    http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/1866777/thousands-dying-region-ozone-pollution-caused

    Reply

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