Patricia’s Epic Bombification — Monster El Nino + Climate Change Serves Up Strongest Western Hemisphere Hurricane Ever

Now this is scary. A tragic development you’d tend to see in a disaster movie screenplay and not in any typical meteorological record for any 36 hour period. But here we have it.

Patricia, as of 36 hours ago, was a rather mild tropical storm churning through the human hothouse and El Nino warmed Eastern Pacific. The storm was predicted to make landfall in Western Mexico as a hurricane, then turn north into Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi — dumping extreme rains over a drought stricken region. But there was little hint as to what would happen next.

(Patricia becomes the strongest Western Hemisphere storm ever recorded as it sets sights on a swath from the Pacific Mexican Coast and on through to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas. Video Source.)

Favorable atmospheric conditions and next to zero wind shear set the stage for strengthening. But the main driver was the hot ocean water which Patricia could tap as fuel for rapid intensification. For the entire region now features ocean surface temperatures in the range of 30 to 31 C (86 to 88 F) or about 2-3 degrees Celsius above average. It’s heat fed by an El Nino that could be one of the top three strongest on record. Heat further intensified by a human forced warming of the globe that has now hit about 1 C above 1880s levels. Heat that would allow Patricia to hit never before seen heights of storm force in a period of extraordinarily rapid intensification.

They call it bombification for a reason. Pressures drop rapidly, wind speeds rage to epic force, and the storm presents a tell-tale angry red signature in the infrared satellite shot. During recent years, bombification has become an all-too-common word associated with ocean storms that are now feeding on unprecedented amounts of heat, moisture, and temperature differentials. Some have even claimed that Hansen’s terrifying ‘Storms of My Grandchildren’ are starting to arrive early. But what happened with Patricia was even outside the new abnormal bombification ‘norm.’

Patricia Stadium Effect

(Enhanced image from NOAA’s twitter feed shows stadium effect and a deadly symmetry similar to that of Typhoon Haiyan. As of the 2 PM EST National Hurricane Center update, Patricia featured a 879 mb minimum central pressure — or lower than that of Haiyan at 895 mb. Image source: NOAA Satellite Pictures)

Though weather models did forecast a rapid strengthening for Patricia, the kind of strengthening we ended up with was something freakish, historic and extraordinary. In a 36 hour period pressures plunged from a mild 990s mb storm to a system featuring an 880 mb minimum central pressure. This raging period of ocean-shattering intensification propelled Patricia to a dubious status of most intense storm ever recorded for the Western Hemisphere over centuries of barometric readings. Winds also rapidly strengthened — roaring up from 40 miles per hour to a current top intensity of 200 miles per hour. That’s 160 mph of wind intensification in a little more than 36 hours.

According to meteorologist Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University in USA Today:

Patricia’s winds intensified a whopping 109 mph during Thursday, rising from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane. It was the fastest intensification ever recorded in the eastern Pacific Ocean, according to meteorologist Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (emphasis added).

It was a never-before-seen pace of intensification. One that begs the question — how can we prepare for major storms if bombification starts to occur more rapidly than we can respond?

At current intensity, the storm is now comparable to the monster western Pacific Storms — Haiyan (195 mph and 895 mb) and Tip (195 mph and 870 mb) — otherwise known as the strongest storms ever recorded. And all this fury now aimed at a well-populated swath from the Pacific Coast of Mexico through to the Gulf Coast of the United States.

An Unimaginably Dangerous Storm Following a Ridiculously Dangerous Path

The potential for tragedy in this situation cannot be understated. A similar strength Hurricane Haiyan — also fueled by abnormally hot waters made hotter by human-forced warming — rendered tens of thousands homeless even as it resulted in the horrible loss of 6,300 souls.

Patricia falls into this high-danger category for a few reasons. The first is that the storm is expected to maintain its extreme Category 5 intensity all the way through to landfall — which is predicted to occur within the next 10-12 hours. Abnormally intense ocean heat content along the path of Patricia, as seen in the graphic below, will continue to provide the powerful storm with fuel as it encroaches upon the Mexico Coast.

Ocean Heat Content and Patricia Track

(Ocean heat content and predicted storm path by Colorado State University.)

As a result, a 15-30 mile swath of the Mexican coast may experience sustained winds near or in excess of 200 mph with gusts up to as high as 250 mph. That’s tornado intensity winds — with the ability to flatten homes or hurl cars through the air — but spread out over an area the size of a small state. Storm surges and related onshore waves are expected to be ‘catastrophic’ (the National Hurricane Center’s words). How catastrophic is unclear (no specific surge height predictions are given), but taking such extreme wind speeds and low pressures into account, we could certainly expect surges near and to the right side of the storm center to be in the range of 20-30 feet+.

If Patricia slams into the coast at a direct angle, then impacts will be limited to a smaller area. But recent tracking has set Patricia on a more oblique path — which means numerous communities may see severe impacts if Patricia spends hours skirting the coast. In total, more than 7 million residents live in the coastal regions along the path of this storm with more than a million in the zone likely to be impacted by the most intense winds and storm surges (see more here).

As Patricia begins to interact with the mountainous terrain near the coast, it should begin to weaken even as it dumps heavy rainfall predicted to be in excess of 20 inches over a broad region. Already, moisture and storm outflow from Patricia are being caught up in the Jet Stream and pulled north and eastward over Texas. By Sunday, the remnants of Patricia are expected to combine with a non-tropical cyclone in a kind of hybrid system which is predicted to, in turn, dump between 5 and 12 inches of rain over a wide section of Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas even as it lashes coastal regions with 60+ mph winds.

Severe rainfall Texas

(NOAA 5 day precipitation forecasts show severe rains hitting drought stricken regions of Texas, Arkansas and Lousiana as the remnants of Patrica track northward. Image source: NOAA.)

This storm will provide yet one more weather whiplash to a region that experienced severe flooding this past Winter and Spring only to be replaced by severe flash drought conditions and extreme wildfire outbreaks during late Summer and early Fall. Patricia’s expected flooding rains will begin what is predicted to be an extremely wet Winter for the region — providing no relief from the highly varied conditions that have impacted this area for some time now. The kind of extreme weather variation that scientists warned was also a potential upshot of human-forced climate change. And, in this case, a record strength storm fueled by a near record El Nino, forming in a record hot world, and feeding on record hot Pacific Ocean waters is the delivery mechanism for the predicted switch.

UPDATE: Patricia is now in the process of making landfall about 20-30 miles to the west of Manzanilla, Mexico. According to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, maximum sustained winds have fallen slightly to a still ridiculous 190 mph even as the minimum central pressure has backed off to around 900 mb. Such an intensity still likely puts it in the range of strongest landfalling storms in North America after the Labor Day Hurricane (892 mb).

Patricia Landfall

(Patricia is making landfall just west of Manzanillo, Mexico. Image source: NOAA/NHC.)

Thoughts and prayers go out to all in the path of this monster. Please stay safe!

Links:

National Hurricane Center

Patricia is the Strongest Hurricane Ever Measured

Hurricane Patricia, The Strongest Storm Ever Recorded

Hurricane Patricia Hits Cat 5 En Route to Mexico Coast

Colorado State University

NOAA

NOAA Satellite Pictures

Hat Tip to DT Lange

Hat Tip to Greg

Hat Tip to Colorado Bob

Leave a comment

220 Comments

  1. – Big storm. Way too much warm water.
    The Weather [and Traffic] Channel had the winds going from 60 to 200 mph in only ten hours.
    The eye is relatively small, area wise, but wound real tight.
    This next sat image gave me a feeling of vertigo just looking down at it.
    – Good timely post, Robert.

    Reply
    • – Side note.
      The Monarch butterfly migration to Mexico and the high altitude Oyamel Fir forests further south will have started. See map
      -fs.fed.us/wildflowers/pollinators/Monarch_Butterfly

      Reply
  2. Live streaming video from the coast at Puerto Vallarta in the path of Patricia.

    Reply
  3. Colorado Bob

     /  October 23, 2015

    Impressive Rapid Intensification

    Patricia rapidly organized and intensified from Wednesday night through early Friday. Maximum sustained winds with the storm increased 115 mph in a 24-hour window from 85 mph at 4 a.m. CDT Thursday to 200 mph at 4 a.m. CDT Friday.

    During that same time, the minimum central pressure of Patricia also decreased 100 millibars, from 980 millibars to 880 millibars.

    This places Patricia among the most rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones ever witnessed anywhere in the world since the advent of modern meteorology.

    http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-patricia-mexico-coast

    Reply
  4. Colorado Bob

     /  October 23, 2015

    Americans Have Never Been So Sure About Climate Change—Even Republicans

    Maybe it’s the pope. Or the freakish year in extreme climate records. It might even be explained by the United Nations climate talks and the bright lights of the presidential election cycle. Whatever the cause, U.S. views on climate change are shifting—fast.

    Three-quarters of Americans now accept the scientific consensus on climate change, the highest level in four years of surveys conducted by the University of Texas at Austin. The biggest shocker is what’s happening inside the GOP. In a remarkable turnabout, 59 percent of Republicans now say climate change is happening, up from 47 percent just six months ago.

    Link

    Reply
    • So the question is — will republicans step aside, stop pushing their idiotic ‘drill, baby, drill’ policies, and let us get some new energy in place to help stop this monster? My bet is for more lame excuses, blaming of ‘god’ for the situation, and rationalizations as to why we can’t act. The republicans in this case are shifting from dysfunctional and corrupt denial, to depressed and equally dysfunctional acceptance but only continuing to offer up the same set of idiotic policies and excuses.

      Reply
      • doug

         /  October 23, 2015

        Hi Robert,

        I read the survey in detail (U of Michigan) and noticed that the question only asked if they believe the climate is changing, (whether the earth is getting warmer) and does not ask about the cause. It doesn’t surprise my at all that many more Republicans now say they believe in global warming, because of the talking point that has made the rounds in right-wing circles that “climate always changes”.

        So I don’t know how much progress we’ve made. Saying “climate always changes” let’s them believe it’s all natural warming, or at least mostly, so not much need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in their pea sized brains.

        Another encouraging sign that at least things are moving in the right direction however, is just how much corporate America has recently embraced the idea of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It’s stunning really. Everyone from Walmart to General Mills.

        Once corporate America is behind reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it’s only a matter of time before the Republican electorate follows suit.

        And I do think incredible pressure is building on the Koch brothers e.t.c. They and their front groups, are only going to be able to hold out for so long.

        I’m praying that once it is widely believed that yes the earth is warming, and we are the cause, that geo-engineering is not tried.

        But if these Republicans are this slow on the uptake, I don’t have confidence in that at all.

        Some believe we need to get past the idea of “economic growth” as part of the solution. Powering down so to speak, and forming new goals and measures for a satisfactory life. I can’t see Republicans ever embracing that.

        So, we’ve got real trouble ahead.

        Reply
        • There once was a time when conservative thinking was characterized as sluggish, doltish, and behind the times. I think that characterization is entirely apt now. And it’s pretty true that lame-brain republicans can’t think us out of this mess using what amounts to a relic cerebral cortex.

    • Bill H

       /  October 23, 2015

      Bob, it’s certainly progress that they now think it’s happening – despite all the howls about “fraudulent” adjustment of historic temperature data. Their opinion on the cause of the warming still seems to be mixed. If the ridiculous Watts is anything to go by the story seems to be: “it’s just due to a natural phenomenon called El Nino”.

      Reply
  5. – USA Today:

    “Patricia is one of the strongest tropical cyclones globally ever observed,” said WeatherBell meteorologist Ryan Maue, “based on lowest central pressure and maximum surface (and flight level) wind speed since the dawn of aviation-based reconnaissance in the 1940s.”

    Patricia’s winds intensified a whopping 109 mph during Thursday, rising from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane. It was the fastest intensification ever recorded in the eastern Pacific Ocean, according to meteorologist Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University.

    … A total of 50,000 people were expected to be evacuated ahead of the storm…

    According to the 2010 census, there are more than 650,000 inhabitants in Colima state, more than 161,000 in Manzanillo and more than 255,000 in the Puerto Vallarta municipality.
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/10/23/hurricane-patricia-strongest-ever-measured/74446334/

    Reply
  6. Anthony Sagliani
    ‏@anthonywx

    Hurricane Patricia vs. Super Typhoon Haiyan. Striking similarity. Both Dvorak T# 8.0

    Reply
  7. Colorado Bob

     /  October 23, 2015

    Stunning, historic, mind-blogging, and catastrophic: Hurricane Patrica Hits 200 mph

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3165

    Reply
  8. eugene

     /  October 23, 2015

    And the game is only starting. In northern Minnesota, the typical knowledge level is “what climate change”. Few months ago, my daughter(GS14) living in Annapolis, asked “is this what it’s going to be like?” And my son in law, a GS15, denies it all with the statement of “I just want to have fun”. He believes climatologists are making it all up.

    I attended my first climate change in 1982 and long ago realized it’s a done deal.

    Reply
    • I have similar conversations with family members. One still believes in the climate gate misinformation nonsense. Sure shows how damaging and destructive false advertising can be. Many don’t realize it, but our politics has been one long advertising campaign on the part of fossil fuels. From climate gate to drill, baby, drill, to the most recent ongoing attacks on EPA. It’s all about the fossil fuels. So I wonder if your son or my cousin would have similar beliefs without the millions and millions spent to effectively warp their minds.

      Reply
  9. Kevin Jones

     /  October 23, 2015

    Fantastic. Away from the net the past few days, I just heard on NPR 1/2 hour ago of Patricia. So I get home and go on line and to The Go-To Site. Thanks, Robert. Crew. (jesus)

    Reply
  10. climatehawk1

     /  October 23, 2015

    Tweeting.

    Reply
  11. Suzanne

     /  October 23, 2015

    At the Washington Post:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/10/23/why-hurricanes-like-patricia-are-expected-on-a-warmer-planet/

    “Why record breaking hurricanes like Patricia are expected on a warmer planet”…

    I am heartened that more and more mainstream media sites are frequently publishing more Global Warming articles….Yet, so sad…that so much time has been wasted.

    Reply
    • Good to see WP chiming in with a climate change related article. This is the first MSM post I’ve seen that links the two.

      Reply
      • Suzanne

         /  October 23, 2015

        Yep…gives me some hope..
        Here’s hoping it just isn’t “too little, too late”….Fingers crossed.

        BTW…Glad to see you back. You had me worried there for a bit. Was sending you positive thoughts when you went awol…🙂

        Reply
  12. Colorado Bob

     /  October 23, 2015

    The model plots for where she’s going, many show her wandering around off the coast near Galveston .
    http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/east-pacific/2015/hurricane-Patricia?map=ensmodel

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  October 23, 2015

      Flood Threat to Worsen Across Texas, Neighboring States Through This Weekend (FORECAST)

      More than 10 million people are under flash flood watches as a potent but slow-moving storm system begins to team up with moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico, setting up the potential for extremely heavy rainfall across a large part of Texas and neighboring states over the next few days. Moisture and energy from Hurricane Patricia in the eastern Pacific may also add more fuel to this soaking scenario.

      Link

      Reply
      • Given the potential moisture loading from these two systems, rainfall amounts could be quite extreme. Worth noting that the heavy rains tend to center near Austin which, just days ago, was fighting off an extreme wildfire outbreak.

        Reply
    • The mountains rip it apart and then it ends up swept into a developing rainstorm that pulls its energy from the Gulf. At this time, that particular storm, though fed by Patricia’s remnants isn’t expected to be tropical. More of a hybrid type event. But who knows, we could see this reform in the Western Gulf.

      Reply
  13. Live video from La Manzanilla.

    Reply
    • The next two hours for Mazailla are going to be amazingly hairy. Already getting street flooding and conditions are deteriorating very rapidly. Looking at these cams we still have people on the beaches and the roads. This is a catastrophe in progress guys. People need to get out. People need to consider this storm is worse than Camille, more intense, but smaller, than Haiyan.

      Reply
  14. A new age of superlatives is upon us as we traverse the abrupt transition from one climate regime to another.

    Sent from my iPad 🙏🏻

    >

    Reply
  15. “If the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale were a continuous scale, with no upper bound, Patricia might be classified as a **Category 7** hurricane, when we consider Category 3 storms produce winds of 115-135 mph, and Category 4 hurricanes produce winds of 135-155 mph. Perhaps Category 5 hurricanes should be categorized 155-175 mph and Category 6 hurricanes 175-195 mph. Rare storms like Patricia and Super typhoon Haiyan, which impacted the Philippines in 2013, could be classified as Category 7 tropical cyclones with winds exceeding 195 mph.”

    http://wxshift.com/news/blog/category-7-hurricane-patricia-threatens-western-mexico

    Reply
  16. Syd Bridges

     /  October 23, 2015

    I am 65 years old and the first time I can recall the term “weather bomb” or “bombification” being used was in England in October 1987. There, after the unfortunate Trevor Fish had assured everyone that nothing untoward would happen, we had the strongest storm since (IIRC) 1704. A fast jet from Hurricane David collided with a deep depression in the Bay of Biscay, and downed 15 million trees in southern England. I was living in Cambridge at the time and in a 20 minute walk saw five downed trees and many broken branches strewing the streets. Further south, in Kent where I grew up, six of the seven oaks of Sevenoaks were downed, and many roads were impassible for days.

    I did not here the term again for many years, but it now is becoming common since Hurricane Sandy. Of course, I know it’s just the Weather Channel trying to get more views, and in no way reflects a change in climate.

    2 to 3 degrees C is 15 to 22 percent more moisture available and many SST anomalies are larger than that. So, I think storms like Patricia will become commonplace in the next few years.

    I think all hurricanes and typhoons should be named after corrupt denialist politicians. Then we could ask: “Was Hurricane Jeb more of a disaster than Hurricane Boehner? Or how about Hurricane Ryan vs Hurricane Imhofe? “The jury’s still out on whether Hurricane Palin is still the most expensive natural (sic) disaster ever or will the final bill from Hurricane Romney claim the number one spot?” Then we could add a name to each year for the sponsors. The 2016 (Year of David H Koch) season was the most expensive ever weatherwise but was exceeded by 2017 (Year of Exxon-Mobil).

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  October 23, 2015

      I for one, have always been rather fond of gallows humor. It seethes will the truth. In light of the recent Exxon stories, may I propose a Super Typhoon Tax.

      Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  October 23, 2015

      Tempest (Rex W.) Tillerson? In honor of Exxon They Knew & Lied for 40 years Mobil?

      Reply
      • Syd Bridges

         /  October 23, 2015

        In the early eighties, I worked on fire systems for oil rigs. Exxon was referred to as “the Double Cross Company” at the time. By then they were already lying through their corporate teeth about global warming.

        Perhaps Big Oil could sponsor big weather disasters. “This Category 7 Hurricane is sponsored by Exxon-Mobil, compared to the puny Category 5 typhoons sponsored last week by Shell and BP. Exxon-Mobil: we bring the biggest disasters Others only sponsor the weather forecasts: we sponsor the weather..” It would at least have the virtue of being true.

        Reply
  17. Suzanne

     /  October 23, 2015

    I know there is nothing funny about the facts in your post….BUT…I gotta say your idea for naming the storms after politicians who are climate change deniers….made me laugh out loud…Thanks for that.🙂

    Reply
    • This post is in reply to the comment Syd wrote above mine. I forgot to hit reply and instead landed up posting a new comment. Oops.

      Reply
    • 🙂 That was a great one. I think we should re-name this one Hurricane Trump.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  October 23, 2015

        We have a movement !

        By the way, the Denier Parties are in the process of committing, Seppuku.

        Abbott is gone, Harper is gone. And one more thing, the Republicans are eating each other at brunch every morning. Jeb Bush just cut his pay and staffing. And they moved from a clown car the last cycle, to a huge clown touring bus for this one, with Donald Trump driving the bus.

        Like the climate , the political winds are changing very fast.

        Reply
        • The Harper defeat was a big one. The Abott defeat, I fear was mostly re-shuffling the deck. But I agree, the island on which climate change deniers live is shrinking faster than a low lying Pacific atoll facing human forced sea level rise.

          The mainstream media sometimes gets it. Although the local radio station here in Maryland appears to have become a Trump cheerleader. And that bozo is no friend to renewable energy or any other method of confronting climate change. He prefers his coal and his coastal golf courses too. So here’s a question for everyone — if someone’s short sighted enough to invest millions in a coastal golf course in England while campaigning against wind energy for the same region, how intelligently do you think he would run the country. For my part I’d rather have a CAT 7 hurricane Trump than a catastrophic Trump presidency.

          In any case, I think advertising money is highly corrosive to the integrity of mainstream news sources. It’s like campaign donations in politics. And yet another reason why republicans attack NPR — they invite and thrive on corruption.

  18. Hurricane Central ‏@twc_hurricane 6m6 minutes ago
    #Patricia is on pace to make landfall around 6pm CDT between 20 and 45 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico.

    Reply
  19. Kevin Jones

     /  October 23, 2015

    El Rubio/La Jeb Southern ‘Oscillation? (sorry, off topic….:) )

    Reply
  20. Colorado Bob

     /  October 23, 2015

    Syd Bridges –
    That was great post, I have never been part of a better comment thread than the ones we all read here daily. The comments we all read yesterday about the fires was as moving as yours. I forget who made them , so sorry. I was struck by how international these threads are, I never dreamed you were born in Kent. I never dreamed we would have a first hand account about the way the fires of Southeast Asia have changed.

    This is a really rich soup of from all over the world, it never fails to surprise me. And it never fails to enrich me.

    “Make sure your seat back trays are in their up right and locked position, and please read the card in the pocket on how to use your flotation device.”

    Reply
  21. And I’m not “jess’ sayin'” that we have the outermost feeder bands here in N.O., I checked it first with a Google image search for Hurricane Patricia.

    Reply
    • Damn. Google ate my first post! A long one, too.

      Reply
    • Ed —

      Stormy next four days for you guys. Start of a stormy winter.

      Reply
    • Storm making landfall now at 900 mb and 190 mph max sustained winds. Only saving grace is the strong wind field is relatively small compared to Haiyan. But that’s little consolation to those in its path. Here’s some best hopes for all in this beast’s shadow.

      Reply
      • Ryan in New England

         /  October 23, 2015

        As Bob might point out to us…hell is coming to breakfast little lady.

        Reply
  22. Colorado Bob

     /  October 23, 2015

    I was just banned for 1 hour at WU. For me that is a new mark they usually ban me for 3 days. I was after humor. I posted that the Mexican Monster , should be called “Super Trump”.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  October 23, 2015

      It’s a movement.

      Reply
    • Oh that’s certainly worthy of a ban. Well done!

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  October 23, 2015

        We could go Inhfoe I ,Inhfoe II. , Inhfoe III , forever. under this new system.

        Reply
    • Bob —

      Watching Moisture from this thing get pulled into a trough system that stretches all the way into Central Canada. Thinking that this is going to be one hell of a rain event as well. Not sure the models are fully picking it up.

      Reply
    • PlazaRed

       /  October 23, 2015

      I didn’t see that post Bob, they must be acting really quick to curtail you tonight.
      Meanwhile the landfall is in a sparsely populated area but there will still be lives lost and a vast amount of damage.

      Reply
    • Syd Bridges

       /  October 23, 2015

      As a former Bridge player, Bob, I take hope from the fact that any “no Trump” bid always defeats a Trump bid.

      Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 24, 2015

      Bob banned at WU for one hour? Why do I think that this so funny? “Cut it out, Bob–for one hour only, please–we expect you back at the 61minute mark.”
      😉

      Reply
  23. – Hurricane EXXON/PATRICIA🙂 from the space station.
    Via Seth Borenstein, AP

    Reply
  24. Colorado Bob

     /  October 23, 2015

    I really like this idea.

    Reply
  25. Colorado Bob

     /  October 23, 2015

    Off to watch the news.

    Reply
  26. International Space Station Footage of Hurricane Patricia

    Reply
  27. – Meanwhile up yonder in fossil fuel ‘car crazy’ CA, USA:

    El Niño: Authorities warn public to prepare for heavy flooding across California

    SAN FRANCISCO (KRON) — Weather officials are predicting massive flooding throughout California over the next several months, and issued this warning to home owners: better get prepared because you’re running out of time.

    In Friday morning’s conference call with media to address the impacts of the upcoming storm season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that dangerous flash flooding will be on the rise, according to data from weather models.

    “People should have food and water for at least 72-hours in their vehicles and home,” NOAA spokesperson said.
    http://kron4.com/2015/10/23/el-nino-authorities-warn-public-to-prepare-for-heavy-flooding-across-california/

    Reply
  28. Colorado Bob

     /  October 23, 2015

    Over 4 inches fell in Dallas today . The entire average. total in Oct .

    Reply
  29. – Keep in mind less strong Hurricane Marty went through a bit south a month ago.

    Reply
  30. Visualization of winds from #Patricia’s predicted landfall for 10/23 12z run of WeatherView go.usa.gov/3hJn5
    [video src="https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CSB2Bm2UsAANL3Y.mp4" /]

    Reply
  31. Colorado Bob

     /  October 23, 2015

    The only good thing about this storm , it’s headed for the Exxon headquarters.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  October 23, 2015

      All the deniers in Texas are about to a lesson in the 7% rule.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  October 23, 2015

        I hope Texas gets it’s brains beat beat to pieces, only then will they change their minds.

        Reply
  32. – Coral reefs:

    Your sunscreen is contributing to the decline of coral reefs
    Time to start being responsible about what brands we use.

    Rising ocean temperatures and a monster El Nino event have been identified as the biggest culprits, but a new report has found that a common sunscreen ingredient is actually toxic to coral, and is killing off juvenile coral and severely damaging adult coral in high concentrations around the world, particularly in Hawaii and the Caribbean.

    The ingredient in question? A UV-filtering chemical compound called oxybenzone – also known as BP-3 or Benzophenone-3 – which is found in 3,500 brands of sunscreen around the world, including L’Oreal Paris, Banana Boat, and Neutrogena.

    http://www.sciencealert.com/your-sunscreen-is-contributing-the-decline-of-coral-reefs-study-finds

    Reply
  33. – Off topic photo relief:

    Reply
  34. Oale

     /  October 24, 2015

    Added this one to the pretty short list of potential cat6 storms: http://erimaassa.blogspot.fi/2013/11/haiyan-scale.html

    Reply
  35. Colorado Bob

     /  October 24, 2015

    Reply
  36. Colorado Bob

     /  October 24, 2015

    Category 5 Hurricane ‪#Patricia‬ made landfall at approximately 6:15 PM CDT…2315 UTC…10/23/2015 along the coast of southwestern ‪‎Mexico‬ near ‪Cuixmala,‬ ‪‎Jalisco‬. This position is also about 55 miles…85 km…west-northwest of ‪Manzanillo‬, Mexico. The maximum winds were estimated to be 165 mph…270 km/h. VideoLink

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  October 24, 2015

      290. ColoradoBob1
      3:50 AM GMT on October 24, 2015
      Hey !

      I just got banned for 72 mins.

      This smallest ban I ever got . Most were 3 days

      Screwing with the mods here .

      Reply
  37. Maria

     /  October 24, 2015

    Local Bay Area News tonight—NOAA telling Californians to batten the hatches. Have72 hours of food and water on hand. Get flood insurance NOW because it takes 30 days to to activate.

    http://kron4.com/2015/10/23/el-nino-authorities-warn-public-to-prepare-for-heavy-flooding-across-california/

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  October 24, 2015

      “Get ready little lady , Hell is coning to breakfast.”
      Lon Wati.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  October 24, 2015

        I/m not joking. , watch next week.

        Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 24, 2015

        That’s what’s terrifying. You’re not joking…given how conservative and tentative NOAA has been re: this El Niño until this month–it was startling to hear their warnings on a local newscast.

        Reply
  38. Colorado Bob

     /  October 24, 2015

    Maria /

    I’m an old man with zero kids, I don’t give a rat’s fuzzy butt. what happens. Never the less, you buckle your chin strap.

    Reply
    • Holy mackerel! That’s the Flavian Ampitheatre* of hurricanes’ eyes!😮

      * Roman Coliseum as originally built.

      Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 24, 2015

        Holy mackerel, indeed—I posted it late last nite after the f.lux had begun removing blue light from my screen and didn’t see the depth of field. Looks like an old and sad human face in there.

        Reply
    • James Burton

       /  October 24, 2015

      Lets fast forward a century. Assuming all is still in place, what kind of photos will they see from space with a storm of 2115?

      Reply
  39. That’s a NASA image of Patricia today…

    Reply
  40. Ot-Scott Kelly has been posting some excellent pix on twitter from the International Space Station.

    Here’s a Rothko-esque sunrise.

    Reply
    • Here on Earth, we see a sunset once every 24 hours — every 23 hours, 56 minutes, and 4 seconds, to be precise — when the planet rotates so that our area of the surface is turned away from the Sun. Because ISS is orbiting Earth at about 5 miles per second, Kelly and his crewmates see a new sunrise and sunset every 92 minutes.

      Reply
      • Scott

         /  October 25, 2015

        Every once in a while a flight is timed just right to get two sunsets in a day. I enjoyed one of those a couple of weeks back. I watched the sun set over Manhattan from the window of a jetliner, saw it rise when we took off, and then got to see it set again a few minutes later. It was beautifu..

        Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  October 24, 2015

      This all the gas that saves us from from a . very dark. cold, world.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  October 24, 2015

        To screw with it is insane. ………………..

        Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  October 24, 2015

        No one understands how thin our shield of gases are. To screw with it is insane. ………………..

        Reply
      • Ryan in New England

         /  October 24, 2015

        Exactly, Bob. That thin layer of gas is the barrier that seals in the only oasis of life in the entire known universe. A profoundly rare, and perfectly “designed” home for humans and all the wonderful plants and animals that share our world. And we have become as catastrophic to this place as a large asteroid strike. It will likely be millions of years until the biosphere “recovers” completely, achieving a mature, balanced web of ecosystems containing millions of species all interacting with one another. Of course it will be an entirely new cast of characters this time around. The species we are currently extinguishing will never, ever exist again for the entire life of the universe. When you think of what’s happening in these terms, it’s pretty apparent that not acting to prevent further destruction of our climate/biosphere is the most immoral crime that can be conceived of.

        Reply
  41. Colorado Bob

     /  October 24, 2015

    I’m on a roll.

    Banned

    You have been banned from WunderBlogs. This ban is in effect for less than an hour.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  October 24, 2015

      Let us all take the bit in our teeth.
      I have lost all my top teeth, and most of the bottom.

      You go first/

      Reply
  42. Abel Adamski

     /  October 24, 2015

    During my lunch break today(R.S site not permitted, maybe too much data) I looked up a couple of the live feed msm sites re Patricia. One of the twitter comments included a photo of current cloud and the commentator was gobsmacked it was a violet colour covering the sky. ?

    Reply
  43. Greg

     /  October 24, 2015


    Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity (MPHI) for the Eastern Pacific on October 23, 2015, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. The MPHI for the waters traversed by Hurricane Patricia was less than 880 mb. Few storms ever approach their maximum theoretical intensity, but Hurricane Patricia did–reaching 879 mb at 2 pm EDT October 23, according to measurements from the Hurricane Hunters. The Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity is maximized as the sea surface temperature rises and as the atmosphere grows more unstable (cold, dry air aloft combined with warm, moist air near the surface.) No commentary or analysis in why it reached its theoretical maximum bombing but it did.

    Reply
    • Leland Palmer

       /  October 30, 2015

      During the PETM, sea surface temperatures of 50 degrees C or more are believed to have occurred. Looking at your link, I was wondering what that would mean in terms of pressure drop and wind speed.

      But this research says that there were probably fewer and milder storms during the PETM:
      according to some climate model simulations: http://www.cmmap.org/research/docs/jan12/cm-marat.pdf

      If true, wouldn’t we still have to go through a transitional state to get to the high temperature PETM state? During this transitional period, wouldn’t we have high ocean surface temperatures but still have icecaps, and a strong temperature gradient between equator and poles, leading to some really ferocious storms?

      Looking at the figure we get roughly 120 mb of minimum pressure decrease per 4 degrees of ocean surface temperature increase. Most storms don’t get anywhere near the minimum pressure decrease, I understand that – but Patricia just did, apparently.

      Does that mean we would get an additional roughly 200 mb of pressure drop if sea surface temperatures increase by 10C in the next hundred years or so? What would that translate into – wind speeds of 300 miles per hour? Or 400 miles per hour?

      Looking at the equation about halfway through the presentation, and assuming other factors are constant, it looks like the sea surface temperature has to increase faster than the local troposphere temperature to get maximum potential wind speed increase. But wouldn’t that happen with some regularity, because local troposphere temperature is variable on short time scales while sea surface temperatures vary much more slowly? Wouldn’t the potential for frequent “perfect storms” exist? I guess I need to learn how to do this math.

      Patricia hit the mountains, and died. The mountains in that region of Mexico are roughly 6000 feet high, and almost form a wall. We certainly won’t always be that lucky.

      Reply
    • Leland Palmer

       /  October 31, 2015

      About sea surface temperatures during the PETM – the presentation linked to above claims maximum average monthly sea surface temperatures of 45 degrees C, or less. Other papers claim O18 isotope readings consistent with a rise of about 6 degrees C over the baseline temperatures at the time, but the baseline at the time was hotter than it is now, too.

      I guess we’re seeing occasional sea surface temperatures up to 35 degrees C in gulfs and seas like the Red Sea, now, even though common maximum temperatures are about 30 degrees C.

      So, 50 degrees C for ocean surface water temperatures during the PETM might be a stretch, in the open ocean. Such surface water temperatures could occur in gulfs and seas, though, maybe.

      If anybody has any better info on this, or has a link, I would be interested in knowing what the best estimates are, for maximum sea surface temperatures during the PETM.

      Reply
  44. Greg

     /  October 24, 2015

    Rainfall totals around 20 inches for parts of Louisiana and Texas in days ahead:

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  October 24, 2015

      -FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX – KFWD 831 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
      -FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANT TX – KEWX 816 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
      -FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX – KCRP 549 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

      Reply
  45. Abel Adamski

     /  October 24, 2015

    Just digressing one moment if I may.
    Another byprodoct of FF combustion especially car exhausts with catalytic converters.
    http://www.ebiomedicine.com/article/S2352-3964%2815%2930175-4/abstract?cc=y=&cc=y%3D

    Compelling evidence shows that fine particulate matters (PMs) from air pollution penetrate lower airways and are associated with adverse health effects even within concentrations below those recommended by the WHO. A paper reported a dose-dependent link between carbon content in alveolar macrophages (assessed only by optical microscopy) and the decline in lung function. However, to the best of our knowledge, PM had never been accurately characterized inside human lung cells and the most responsible components of the particulate mix are still unknown. On another hand carbon nanotubes (CNTs) from natural and anthropogenic sources might be an important component of PM in both indoor and outdoor air.

    We used high-resolution transmission electron microscopy and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy to characterize PM present in broncho-alveolar lavage-fluids (n = 64) and inside lung cells (n = 5 patients) of asthmatic children. We show that inhaled PM mostly consist of CNTs. These CNTs are present in all examined samples and they are similar to those we found in dusts and vehicle exhausts collected in Paris, as well as to those previously characterized in ambient air in the USA, in spider webs in India, and in ice core. These results strongly suggest that humans are routinely exposed to CNTs.

    Carbon nanotubes and lungs.

    High concentrations of CNT’s found in car exhausts

    Reply
  46. PlazaRed

     /  October 24, 2015

    Flooding in Texas is next on the agenda and is already getting bad there but another area which seems to be totally missing any attention is the Canary Islands.
    After several days of heavy rain totalling many inches so far the Canary island “Gran Canaria has been declared a catastrophic zone by the authorities.
    The Spanish news showed all kinds of serious damage tonight with more very heavy rains tomorrow, Sunday.
    Although the islands are getting a lot of rain, several inches per day, there is almost no flat land so the rapid run off is the main problem with river bed damage and retaining walls collapsing.

    Here is the only link I can find in English:-

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-107509/Five-die-floods-hit-Tenerife.html

    Reply
    • I’m sorry to see Las Canarias suffering. Looks like the mainland is getting its share of rain too. They were smart about closing schools before the storms touched down…Separately, do you know how they(Canarias) are doing on the whole re: climate change plans and the debate? We discussed Hierro here but I haven’t followed any of their plans/commitments leading up to COP21.

      Reply
      • Spike

         /  October 25, 2015

        The thing that strikes me about these 1:100 or 1:1000 events is that as our climate warms the return periods shorten quite dramatically in many of the model projections. At some point some places will have to either spend a fortune on adaptation to drought/flood/heat, or decide it simply is no longer tenable to do so and accept regular suffering or abandonment.

        Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 25, 2015

        At some point some places will have to either spend a fortune on adaptation to drought/flood/heat, or decide it simply is no longer tenable to do so and accept regular suffering or abandonment.

        This truly is a tipping point for us as a world society, isn’t it? The Earth has “tipped” its hand. What’s our next move?

        Reply
    • Spike

       /  October 25, 2015

      It’s only a year since the last deluge I recall

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29682176

      Reply
  47. – Patricia and millibars via Mashable:

    ‘That’s an astonishing 100 millibar drop in air pressure in a 24-hour period, which is virtually unheard of. The intensification rate looked like a steep staircase when graphed using a satellite-based computer algorithm that tracks storm intensity.’

    Reply
  48. The Hurricane Hunters crew that flew into Patricia.
    @NOAA_Hurrhunter

    Reply
  49. – AU and elsewhere — sinking or rising?

    As Sea Levels Rise, the City of Perth Sinks

    Growing demand for water in Perth has caused the city to sink at up to 6mm a year and could be responsible for an apparent acceleration in the rate of sea level rise, according to new research released by Curtin University.

    The study, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research in October, found that the rate of subsidence in Perth increased between 2000 and 2005, at the same time as the Water Corporation of WA increased the amount of water it was drawing from the city’s two main aquifers to meet the demands of a growing population.

    As the city sinks, it is likely to mean that the tidal marker at Fremantle, about 24km south of Hillarys, is off kilter, though not by as much as 6mm. The tidal marker has been in place since 1897 and offers the longest continuous record of sea levels in the southern hemisphere. In recent years it has shown an acceleration in the rate of sea level rise. Featherstone said that flattened out, however, if you factored in the sinking landmass.

    The reverse of this trend had been seen elsewhere in the world, Featherstone said. Tidal markers in Scandinavia showed the sea level was dropping, when in fact the land was rising.
    https://www.climatecentral.org/news/as-sea-levels-rise-perth-sinks-19588

    Reply
    • Vic

       /  October 25, 2015

      Perth would be sinking even further if not for its two sea water desalination plants producing over 40% of the city’s potable water supply. They’re very pricey, you don’t get much change out of a billion dollars for a decent sized desal plant, but Perth had no choice – the city’s rainfall has been in steady decline for over forty years while its population has continued to grow. It’s nice to know they’re powered by renewables too.

      Reply
    • Vic

       /  October 25, 2015

      Incidentally, there’s a local company, Carnegie Wave Energy, who are now successfully running the world’s first grid connected wave energy harvesters, supplying electricity to a naval base on Garden Island, just south of Perth. They were in the news recently showcasing their new desalination system which utilises the energy of the pressurised sea water from the harvesters to force the water through a reverse osmosis filter.

      Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 25, 2015

        Thanks for this pointer, Vic….heartening to know it can be done(thinking of CA’s issues).

        Reply
  50. – This is indicative of our values and current dilemma –it makes my brain sputter with incredulity. But here it is:

    Pollution Could Buy an Extra Decade of Arctic Sea Ice
    Air pollution could help preserve ice but that still doesn’t make it good

    Arctic sea ice continues to dwindle at an exceptional pace. Summer sea ice has declined at a rate of 13 percent per decade…

    The main driver for Arctic sea ice’s disappearing act is the rising ocean and air temperatures driven by human greenhouse gas emissions. But that isn’t the only factor affecting Arctic sea ice. Air pollution also plays a role and can actually slow down warming.

    “Aerosols have quite a substantial impact on Arctic climate.”

    Gillett co-authored the new research in pre-publication with Geophysical Research Letters. The findings show that aerosols have blunted 60 percent of the warming in the Arctic through the 20th century, a notable statistic given that the Arctic has still warmed at twice the rate as the rest of the planet.

    “The base driver of sea ice melt ultimately is anthropogenic greenhouse gases,” Walt Meier, an Arctic expert at NASA, said. “That ultimately causes enough warming to lose sea ice in summer in the Arctic. Aerosols are a secondary effect so they can reinforce carbon dioxide-influenced warming or slow it down.”

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/pollution-could-buy-an-extra-decade-of-arctic-sea-ice/

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  October 25, 2015

      “….aerosols have blunted 60% of the warming….” Faustian as it gets, dtlange.

      Reply
    • danabanana

       /  October 26, 2015

      … and, like I have been saying for sometime, smoke from the massive tundra fires also slow the melt.

      Reply
  51. “Indonesia readies warships for haze evacuation –

    The government has decided to send ships to haze affected provinces to evacuate victims, especially children and women, if necessary.

    For nearly two months, thousands of fires caused by slash-and-burn farming in Indonesia have choked vast expanses of Southeast Asia, forcing schools to close and scores of flights and some international events to be cancelled.

    The government has decided to send ships to haze-affected provinces to evacuate victims, especially children and women, if necessary, with two warships deployed to Kalimantan on Friday and another carrying medical workers and health equipment expected Saturday.

    Military spokesman Tatang Sulaiman said the warships, which will be standing by in Banjarmasin, the capital of south Kalimantan, could serve as evacuation centres and hospitals for those affected by the haze.”

    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/indonesia-readies/2214964.html?cx_tag=similar#cxrecs_s

    Reply
  52. Greg

     /  October 25, 2015

    From Jeff Maters blog, the amount of precipitable moisture in Brownsville Texas today. It’s that point in the upper right of the graph and is a record since record keeping began in 1948:
    http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2015/bro-sounding-record-12Z-10.24

    Reply
  53. Greg

     /  October 25, 2015

    For his latest analysis “Patricia’s Remnants to Fuel Dangerous Rains in Texas”:
    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3167

    Reply
  54. labmonkey2

     /  October 25, 2015

    Will all this additional run-off change the current NOAA Dead Zone perdictions? Article from Aug 4
    http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/080415-gulf-of-mexico-dead-zone-above-average.html

    “An average area was expected because the Mississippi River discharge levels and associated nutrient data from May indicated an average delivery of nutrients during this critical month which stimulates the fuel for the mid-summer dead zone,” said Nancy Rabalais, Ph.D. executive director of the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium (LUMCON), who led the July 28 to Aug 3 survey cruise. A suite of NOAA-sponsored models forecasted a range of 4,633 to 5,985 square miles based on May nitrogen loading data provided by USGS. “Since the models are based largely on the May nitrogen loads from the Mississippi River, the heavy rains that came in June with additional nitrogen and even higher river discharges in July are the possible explanations for the larger size,” said Rabalais.”

    Not looking good with all the added rainfall.

    Reply
    • labmonkey2

       /  October 25, 2015

      Nice current status site:
      http://www.gulfhypoxia.net/

      Mississippi Delta Management rated a D+.
      Maybe “The Donald” should send them a note…

      Reply
    • – Good catch, lm2. There’s nothing like nourishing a ‘dead zone’.

      There must quite a bit of nitrogen loading from runoff. It will surely increase.
      Likely lots of GMO contaminated plant and pesti-herbicide flood debris too.

      Los Alamos Labs has a fitting definition of N with a certain symmetry.

      History

      From the Latin word nitrum, Greek Nitron, native soda; and genes, forming. Nitrogen was discovered by chemist and physician Daniel Rutherford in 1772. He removed oxygen and carbon dioxide from air and showed that the residual gas would not support combustion or living organisms. At the same time there were other noted scientists working on the problem of nitrogen. These included Scheele, Cavendish, Priestley, and others. They called it “burnt” or” dephlogisticated air,” which meant air without oxygen.

      Ammonia
      Ammonia (NH3) is the most important commercial compound of nitrogen. It is produced by the Haber Process. Natural gas (methane, CH4) is reacted with steam to produce carbon dioxide and hydrogen gas (H2) in a two step process. Hydrogen gas and nitrogen gas reacted via the Haber Process to produce ammonia. This colorless gas with a pungent odor is easily liquefied (in fact, the liquid is used as a nitrogen fertilizer). Ammonia is also used in the production of urea, NH2CONH2, which is used as a fertilizer, used in the plastic industry, and used in the livestock industry as a feed supplement. Ammonia is often the starting compound for many other nitrogen compounds.
      http://periodic.lanl.gov/7.shtml

      Reply
      • – A weird ‘buyback’ program hard to invent but here it is:
        (Also keep Koch Industries/Nitrogen/ALEC in mind when talking about N in today’s contexts.)

        Explosives – ANFO (Ammonium Nitrate – Fuel Oil)

        On 10 November 2009 International troops and Afghan police seized 250 tons of ammonium nitrate fertilizer in the southern city of Kandahar. Ammonium nitrate fertilizer, is used to make about 95 percent of the bombs in Afghnaistan. Roadside bombs account for 80 percent of US casualties in Afghanistan. IED incidents in Afghanistan have fallen from more than 1,000 in July 2009 to 704 in October 2009. US troops in southern Afghanistan have had the authority to compensate local farmers for fertilizer seized by US troops. Farmers can receive about $28 – twice the market rate – for each 50-kilogram bag of ammonium nitrate fertilizer. [SOURCE: Jeff Schogol, writing in the November 12, 2009 edition of Stars and Stripes]
        -globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/explosives

        #
        Why Was the Texas Fertilizer Plant Explosion So Deadly?
        The substance that killed up to 15 people, injured 180 and wrecked the buildings in a five-block radius is the same stuff that makes the beans and barley grow. But not all fertilizers are equally dangerous. And the West plant may have been harboring the worst of them all.
        … the two most likely culprits in the blast are anhydrous ammonia and ammonium nitrate. Both are inorganic fertilizers that were being stored in “substantial amounts” at the West Chemical and Fertilizer Company building…
        – scientificamerican.com/article/why-texas-fertilizer

        Reply
    • – Petrochemical facilities are everywhere in that area.

      Reply
  55. – Hey Bob. Speaking of Texas and fertilizing agents aka BS.
    Gonna bog everything down with subpoena power.
    Go after Exxon and others that had have to known about CO2 and CC.

    Congressional skeptic on global warming demands records from U.S. climate scientists

    The head of a congressional committee on science has issued subpoenas to the Obama administration over a recent scientific study refuting claims that global warming had “paused” or slowed over the last decade.

    Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Tex.), chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology and a prominent congressional skeptic on climate change, issued the subpoenas two weeks ago demanding e-mails and records from U.S. scientists who participated in the study, which undercut a popular argument used by critics who reject the scientific consensus that man-made pollution is behind the planet’s recent warming.

    – The dome of the U.S. Capitol in Washington is seen behind the emissions, and a smokestack, from the Capitol Power Plant, the only coal-burning power plant in the nation’s capitol, on March 10, 2014. (EPA/JIM LO SCALZO)

    Reply
  56. – Nutrient dependent Algae again — PNW WA 1023

    An algae bloom in Deep Lake has produced enough toxin to prompt an advisory.

    The lake is located south of Tumwater and east of Interstate 5, with Millersylvania State Park on its shore.

    Swimming in or drinking water with algae toxins can lead to serious illness, so people and pets are advised to stay out of the water. In addition, no one should fish in the lake unless they use catch and release.

    Samples collected on Oct. 13 showed toxins at almost three times normal levels.

    http://www.theolympian.com/news/local/article41206860.html

    Reply
  57. – Sometimes with all this news — I Scare Myself.
    – Heard/saw this live at Winterland Ballroom, SF Feb 1970. Wow. The concert lasted til 2 am.
    – Flew to Honolulu next am at 8.
    – A couple of days later the Bank of America burned in my hometown of Isla Vista, CA (UCSB Santa Barbara). I still remember seeing the headline in a newspaper rack.

    ” I Scare Myself ”  Dan Hicks and The Hot Licks

    Reply
  58. Chuck Hughes

     /  October 25, 2015

    Oh now! Let us not rush to judgement on this hurricane having ANYTHING at all to do with Climate Change. By doing “The Twist”, you can easily see that this was totally normal and expected and has absolutely nothing to do with human activity. NPR verifies this fact:

    http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/10/23/451208663/why-hurricane-patricia-cant-be-blamed-on-climate-change

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  October 25, 2015

      Hmm, the article is very circumspect, completely faiis to address the main reason why Patricia developed so rapidly and strongly was that there was no cooler deep water to draw up and slow the development, just warm water at depth, part of the oceans warming at depth due to AGW

      Reply
      • dnem

         /  October 25, 2015

        I’m so sick of that argument. Don’t you think an ongoing, unabated global energy imbalance leading to incredible amounts of excess heat getting buried in the Pacific means that more will ultimately come out when the next “unrelated to climate change” El Nino comes along?

        Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  October 25, 2015

      The ‘P’ used to stand for Public. Then Petroleum. Now Pathetic. “think about it”

      Reply
    • doug

       /  October 25, 2015

      They don’t call it National Petroleum Radio for nothing.

      Reply
    • Maria

       /  October 25, 2015

      I saw a comment on one of the blogs in response to NPR’s piece: “so the ghg-indusec anomolous SST’s were removed to make way for El Niño?”

      It’s truly a shame. The powers that be over there sold against the wishes of their longstanding ethical journalists and program directors…

      Reply
    • I’d put this in the category of utter and complete drivel. Added heat in this region clearly contributed to Patricia hitting a record shattering intensity. And added heat has clearly put the weather — this year and worsening through at least the past two decades — on steroids.

      What I’d like to see the next time some athlete gets caught cheating using steroids is all those ‘experts’ willing to step up and start quibbling over how this or that home run or touchdown couldn’t be attributed to steroids. The argument is beyond ludicrous so far that it has gone into stupid.

      Reply
      • – NPR is not to be taken seriously on climate issues. The subject is just too serious and hits too close to ‘home’. They are interesting for what they don’t cover.

        Reply
  59. Bill H

     /  October 25, 2015

    Watts’ acolytes have been crowing at the supposed lack of damage from Hurricane Patricia. Meanwhile its destructive effects are making themselves clear now in southern Texas, and, soon to follow, Louisiana. See:

    http://www.weather.com/news/news/texas-louisiana-mississippi-gulf-coast-flood-threat

    Reply
    • Thousands of homes destroyed and 240,000 still living in shelters. But thank goodness loss of life was much lower than it could have been. Sure that’s no consolation for people whose homes were torn to bits by this thing.

      Reply
      • Greg

         /  October 26, 2015

        It should be noted, when it comes to handling hurricanes, Mexican authorities are considered now some of the best in the world having learned from past mistakes “Mexico now has a national emergency response system that reaches from the central government to the local level. “There was a strong learning curve and they put resources into it,” Mr. Olson said, although he said the system was not able to prevent deaths when separate storms hit the country’s Gulf and Pacific coasts in the same week two years ago. With Hurricane Patricia, Mr. Olson said, Mexican authorities had done a good job of warning local residents, through announcements on radio and television and social media. He said they had also done good work in evacuating people ahead of the storm — a process that began before it quickly blew up into a Category 5 hurricane with winds measured at 200 miles per hour.
        http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/25/world/americas/planning-helps-mexico-avoid-major-problems-from-hurricane-patricia.html?_r=0

        Reply
  60. Maria

     /  October 25, 2015

    For DT: This is on the waterfront of the Tiburon Peninsula. What do you think happened?

    Reply
    • Maria,
      It looks like this SF Bay area pine that went through a bit of a mortality event. Pines are known to be vulnerable because of environmental conditions such as drought and phytotoxic air pollution — bark beetles are only one manifestation.

      Other exotic foliage nearby looks healthy and verdant but the pine is history. These extreme differences in one location are becoming quite common as air quality degrades. I’ve seen quite s bit of this.

      Some are susceptible to ozone, others NOx. Pines and conifers have a lot terpenes — think also of turpentine, which is basically a solvent (it dissolves).
      I have long wondered if aerosol pollution (VOCs, etc.) is causing some of these watered and maintained urban conifers to overdose on terpenes — or are actually denaturing themselves.
      The condition of the rest of the foliage in the photo above points away from dehydration (drought). FF air pollution is rampant though.

      – Turpentine is the volatile oil distilled from pine resin, which itself is obtained by tapping trees of the genus Pinus.
      … Traditionally, turpentine has been employed as a solvent or cleaning agent for paints and varnishes and this is still often the case today, particularly in those countries where the pine trees are tapped.
      fao.org/docrep/v5350e/v5350e10

      Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 25, 2015

        Thanks for taking the time for this detailed response. I go down there from time to time and I don’t recall it being completely dead like this this year…that contrast with its lush yard-mates is striking. Wouldn’t be surprised if a fresh tree replaces it in time for the holiday season.

        Reply
  61. doug

     /  October 25, 2015

    For those you think the “Liberal” Party election victory in Canada means a radical shift in climate policies, think again. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/true-north/2015/oct/22/trudeaus-bold-change-pledge-was-a-ruse-but-canada-now-has-a-fighting-chance

    I even saw one environmental organization’s representative say he even called Trudeau a “twerp” when he spoke with him.

    I’ve been trying to tell people my whole life, status quo voting shockingly gets you the status quo.

    And the status quo is going to take us right over the edge.

    Reply
    • Ideal? No. But show me an ideal that actually happens in real life. And even if he was ideal, the division of power in Canada would tend to make progress in the right direction a non-immediate prospect. I’d say far better than Harper so let’s not fall into Nirvana Fallacy territory here.

      Reply
  62. Maria

     /  October 25, 2015

    Dallas News writes editorial about Exxon’s deliberate missed opportunity. Posting because it’s great to see one of E’s home state mainstream papers talking about their malfeasance.

    http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20151020-editorial-exxons-missed-opportunity-to-address-climate-change.ece

    Reply
  63. Maria

     /  October 25, 2015

    Detailed piece on the warming of the Gulf of Maine by their Portland paper.

    The Gulf of Maine – which extends from Cape Cod in Massachusetts to Cape Sable at the southern tip of Nova Scotia, and includes the Bay of Fundy, the offshore fishing banks, and the entire coast of Maine – has been warming rapidly as the deep-water currents that feed it have shifted. Since 2004 the gulf has warmed faster than anyplace else on the planet, except for an area northeast of Japan, and during the “Northwest Atlantic Ocean heat wave” of 2012 average water temperatures hit the highest level in the 150 years that humans have been recording them.

    http://www.pressherald.com/2015/10/25/climate-change-imperils-gulf-maine-people-plants-species-rely/

    Reply
  64. Colorado Bob

     /  October 25, 2015

    BAGUIO CITY—The Cordillera office of the Office of Civil Defense and the local office of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said that Super Typhoon “Lando” brought to this area the highest rainfall level for a 24-hour period in the history of the region.

    Andrew Alex Uy, OCD-CAR regional director, said that the 24-hour rainfall brought by Lando from 8 a.m. of Oct. 19 to 8 a.m. of Oct. 20 recorded the highest rainfall at 763 millimeters compared to the rainfall brought by Typhoon “Pepeng” in October 2009 and Tropical Cyclone Ineng in August this year.

    http://thestandard.com.ph/news/-provinces/190315/lando-sets-record-rainfall-level-in-cordillera-history-.html

    Reply
  65. Reply
  66. Colorado Bob

     /  October 25, 2015

    The Amazon drained forest: Incredible pictures show devastating effect of drought ravishing Brazil in area’s worst dry spell for 100 years

    Brazil’s Amazonian rainforest has suffered its worst drought in 100 years, leaving many key lakes dried out
    Whole communities in the Amazonian regions of the country have been left struggling without water
    Boats have been left stranded in the Puaquequarauna lake, due the low levels of the Rio Negro
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3288144/The-Amazon-drained-forest-Incredible-pictures-devastating-effect-drought-ravishing-Brazil-area-s-worst-dry-spell-100-years.html

    Reply
  67. Colorado Bob

     /  October 25, 2015

    At the foot of Dr. Master’s last post on Patrica is this really interesting graphic and his comment –

    Figure 7. Precipitable water (water vapor) in the atmosphere above Brownsville, TX, in soundings from all radiosondes launched from Brownsville, TX, from Jan. 1, 1948, through Oct. 26, 2014. The spiky red line shows the record-high values observed on each date. Depicted with the starburst at upper right is the record value of 2.62” measured at 12Z on Saturday morning, October 24, 2015. This is the highest value ever observed in Brownsville on any date between September 16 and June 19. At Corpus Christi, TX (not shown), Saturday morning’s value of 2.52” is a record for any date between October 20 and June 20. Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

    Link

    Reply
    • Monster El Niño + Climate Change is really starting to sink its teeth in. SSTs are also starting to take another jump in EQPAC. My bet is Niño 3.4 hits 2.5 to 2.7 over next few weeks.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  October 26, 2015

        Thanks for seeing this , but that vapor is off the Gulf.

        Well two 20 inch rain events this month in the US. Never mind a cyclone making a direct hit.
        The deniers are being converted one epic flood at a time. I watched the sheriff of Navarro County Texas , he was dazed and confused when 20 inches of rain landed on him.

        Reply
        • We have moisture coming in from EPAC over Mexico, moisture over the Gulf and deep troughs digging in to fire it all off. Without the Jet/ moisture feed coming in from EPAC, Patricia’s remnants would not have been swept up. The Jet Stream over that zone is a mess of convergent flows and a validation of earlier model predictions.

  68. Colorado Bob

     /  October 25, 2015

    The Lance MODIS shot west of Indonesia today –

    Terra/MODIS
    2015/298
    10/25/2015
    04:10 UTC

    Link

    Reply
  69. Colorado Bob

     /  October 25, 2015

    Well two 20 inch rain events this month in the US. Never mind a cyclone making a direct hit.
    The deniers are being converted one epic flood at a time. I watched the sheriff of Navarro County Texas , he was dazed and confused when 20 inches of rain landed on him.

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  October 26, 2015

      “dazed and confused” That’s cognitive dissonance,the feces from the fan moment when an individual’s observations diametrically oppose the beliefs that are integral to his or her self-identity. We’re not in Texas anymore….

      Reply
  70. – I post this because I don’t think it got much coverage — and as radioactive and hazardous waste accumulates.

    Video shows blasts at nuclear waste dump site that shut down U.S. 95

    Las Vegas Review-Journal

    A video of Sunday’s explosions that preceded a fire in a state-owned radioactive waste trench at the US Ecology site 10 miles south of Beatty shows white smoke emanating from the soil before the ground erupts, shooting debris and more white smoke into the air.

    The 40-second cellphone video, released Thursday by the Nevada Department of Public Safety two days after the Las Vegas Review-Journal had requested it, was taken from a berm atop Trench No. 11 overlooking the soil cap of Trench No. 14.

    Trench No. 14 is where containers of low-level radioactive waste were buried in part of a pit the size of a football stadium in the 1970s.

    Authorities shut down a 140-mile stretch of U.S. Highway 95 for nearly 24 hours because of the fire and flash floods during Sunday’s heavy rains in Nye County. Beatty is about 117 miles northwest of Las Vegas.

    http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/fire-rescue/video-shows-blasts-nuclear-waste-dump-site-shut-down-us-95

    Reply
  71. Colorado Bob

     /  October 26, 2015

    Why record-breaking hurricanes like Patricia are expected on a warmer planet

    First there was Supertyphoon Haiyan — which peaked at 170-knot or 196 mile-per-hour winds in 2013 as it slammed the Philippines. And now there is Patricia, forecast to soon hit Mexico, with currently estimated maximum sustained wind speeds of 175 knots or, that’s right, over 200 miles per hour.

    It is officially the strongest hurricane ever measured by the U.S. National Hurricane Center, based on both its wind speed (175 knots) and its minimum central pressure (880 millibars). The wind measurement “makes Patricia the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center’s area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific basins,” the center said this morning.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/10/23/why-hurricanes-like-patricia-are-expected-on-a-warmer-planet/

    Reply
  72. Barbara Burnett

     /  October 26, 2015

    Longtime lurker, first-time commentor.

    What’s this? A major tornado in Athens, Greece??!! (Isn’t this “unusual”?)

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/mediterranean-storm-targets-it/53099406

    Weekend Storm Turns Deadly in Middle East
    By Eric Leister, Meteorologist
    October 25, 2015; 7:37 PM ET

    The storm system that brought heavy rain and severe weather across Greece and western Turkey late last week and into the weekend turned deadly on Sunday in Israel. This storm will continue to threaten the region through at least the beginning of the week. Impacts from the storm will be felt across the Middle East with showers and thunderstorms reaching from Syria, Lebanon and Israel to northern Saudi Arabia, Iraq and eastern Turkey Monday.

    SEE VIDEO: 0:00/7:43
    Severe Weather Europe
    Science Website · 45,095 Likes · October 22 at 7:07am ·

    Major tornado in Athens, Greece this morning!
    Video: Constantinos Stathopoulos
    Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser

    532 Likes · 55 Comments · 875 Shares

    On Saturday, heavy rain and severe weather was seen across southern Greece and the west coast of Turkey. Rainfall from Friday afternoon into Saturday surpassed 50 mm (2 inches) in many areas and reached 77 mm (about 3 inches) in Cesme, Turkey. This rainfall, in addition to the heavy rain that has already fallen over the region in recent days, will result in a high threat for flash flooding. Marmaris, in southwest Turkey, received around 250 mm (10 inches) of rainfall from this storm system as of Friday morning.

    As this system pushes to the east over the weekend, severe thunderstorms moved into Lebanon and Israel, bringing damaging wind gusts, large hail and flooding rain. These storms turned deadly in Israel as high winds toppled a wall at a construction site, burying a worker, reported the Israeli news agency Arutz Sheva. High wind gusts toppled a crane in Tel Aviv as storms rushed across the city. Wind reported at Dov Hoz Airport in Tel Aviv around the time of the collapse reached 36 mph. These storms brought more than just damaging wind across the region. Large hail and flooding rain fell in parts of Israel as well.

    Hail in Israel taken on Sunday, October 25, by Twitter user xSternal.

    Flooding in Israel taken on Sunday, October 25, by Twitter user xSternal.

    While AccuWeather meteorologists think that the threat for severe weather will not be as significant early this week in Israel and Lebanon, there will continue to be showers and thunderstorms across the region.

    During the middle of the week the threat for heavy rain and possible flooding will advance into the mountainous terrain along the Iraq and Iran border.

    Content Contributed by Meteorologist Adam Douty

    Reply
  73. Barbara Burnett

     /  October 26, 2015

    Hmm, appears to be part of a longer spate of severe weather in the past few days. (Note: I googled tornados in Greece and couldn’t find any reports of any until 2002…):

    http://www.weather.com/news/weather/video/massive-tornado-in-greece

    Massive Tornado in Greece
    The Weather Channel
    Posted: Sep 23 2015 07:09 PM EDT

    Meteorologist Danielle Banks takes a look at a huge tornado that went through Methana, Greece on Monday, September 21.

    
http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/09/21/apocalyptic-images-due-to-tornado-in-peloponnese-greece/#sthash.K3crpUQQ.dpuf

    Apocalyptic Images Due to Tornado in Peloponnese, Greece
    By Ioanna Zikakou – Sep 21, 2015
    http://www.weather.com/news/weather/video/massive-tornado-in-greece

    Reply
  74. Colorado Bob

     /  October 26, 2015

    I always go to the Eagles and Desperado . And this one-

    “Doolin-Dalton/Desperado [Reprise]”

    Reply
  75. Greg

     /  October 26, 2015

    Breaking wind news “In the New England region, New York and even into New Jersey, building a new gas plant… is just about the same price as building a new offshore wind farm in Europe today.”—Jeff Grybowski, CEO of Deepwater Wind (via thinkprogress)

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  October 26, 2015

      July 27, 2015, file photo, the first foundation jacket installed by Deepwater Wind in the United State’s first offshore wind farm construction project is seen next to a construction crane on the waters of the Atlantic Ocean off Block Island, R.I.

      Reply
  76. Colorado Bob

     /  October 26, 2015

    Barbara Burnett

    Thanks for your comment , never be shy. Never be silent.

    Reply
  77. Colorado Bob

     /  October 26, 2015

    Now the time has come/

    Reply
  78. Colorado Bob

     /  October 26, 2015

    The other Eagle song I love –

    Reply
  79. Colorado Bob

     /  October 26, 2015

    This is why the Eagles hired Joe Walash .

    Reply
  80. Colorado Bob

     /  October 26, 2015

    The Bomber. by the James Gang. What a new meaning that term has today.

    Reply
  81. OT but still about our planet. Light pollution… I learned we have a Dark Sky Foundation whose mission is to protect areas of the world from light pollution. There is a park in Pennsylvania(Cherry Hills) that is a designated dark sky reserve.

    http://www.vox.com/2015/10/21/9582466/night-sky-milky-way

    Reply
  82. Greg

     /  October 26, 2015

    Portraits of people living off the grid (Europe for now by Antoine Bruy as an ongoing photo series ‘Scrublands’

    Reply
  83. redskylite

     /  October 26, 2015

    Japan worrying about their future too . . .

    While super typhoons are characterized by their high wind speeds, sea levels during typhoons rise by around a power of two compared to wind speed. A doubling of wind speed could mean a quadrupling of the rise in sea height. When Typhoon Vera hit, sea levels rose by up to 3.55 meters, and over 4,500 people died or went missing in Aichi and Mie prefectures. Typhoon Bart in 1999 raised the water level in the Yatsushiro Sea of Kumamoto Prefecture, killing 12 people.

    http://www.japanbullet.com/news/experts-predict-super-typhoons-could-strike-japan-due-to-global-warming

    Reply
    • Yeah, and the sub headline reads:

      ‘Rising demand for air conditioning and refrigeration threatens to make planet hotter and undermine pledges to rein in emissions ‘

      Reply
      • – One major factor to keep in mind is the ‘urban heat island’ influence which continues unabated. Aerosol pollution likely affects any ‘comfort zone’ level.

        Urban Heat Island:
        What is an Urban Heat Island?

        In the simplest term, a heat island is a metropolitan area that is at a warmer temperature than the surrounding countryside (Wikipedia, 2005). According to the EPA (2005), “on hot summer days, urban air can be 2-10°F (2-6°C) hotter than the surrounding countryside.” This heat island phenomenon is “an example of an unintentional climate modification when urbanization changes the characteristics of the Earth’s surface and temperature” (Voogt, 2004). Not only is city air significantly hotter in the late afternoon, but the temperature of various surfaces also increases (Voogt, 2004). A sketch of a typical heat island is shown in Figure 1 below.

        Reply
  84. Extreme heatwaves could push Gulf climate beyond human endurance, study shows

    “The extreme heatwaves will affect Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and coastal cities in Iran as well as posing a deadly threat to millions of Hajj pilgrims in Saudi Arabia, when the religious festival falls in the summer. The study shows the extreme heatwaves, more intense than anything ever experienced on Earth, would kick in after 2070 and that the hottest days of today would by then be a near-daily occurrence.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/26/extreme-heatwaves-could-push-gulf-climate-beyond-human-endurance-study-shows

    Reply
  85. East Antarctica’s biggest glacier is melting from below, study confirms

    “The bedrock topography at the end of the present Totten fjord (beneath the floating thick ice at the glacier front) is such that retreat is likely to proceed rapidly but then slow down,” observes Ted Scambos, lead scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, who reviewed the new study. “There will be a glacier acceleration and thinning associated with the first retreat into a deep area but then some slowing.”

    “This is an area harder to destabilize dramatically than in Thwaites area” of West Antarctica, adds Penn State University glaciologist Richard Alley, commenting on the new study. But, he continues, “warming waters can influence this area and access a lot of ice leading to long-term large sea-level rise.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/10/26/east-antarcticas-biggest-glacier-is-melting-from-below-study-confirms/?postshare=8891445876850504

    Reply
  86. – Also a very FF dependent industry and corporate caused health threat.

    Cancer
    Processed meats rank alongside smoking as cancer causes – WHO

    UN health body says bacon, sausages and ham among most carcinogenic substances along with cigarettes, alcohol, asbestos and arsenic

    Bacon, ham and sausages rank alongside cigarettes as a major cause of cancer, the World Health Organisation has said, placing cured and processed meats in the same category as asbestos, alcohol, arsenic and tobacco.
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/oct/26/bacon-ham-sausages-processed-meats-cancer-risk-smoking-says-who?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+USA+-+Version+A&utm_term=133885&subid=8553955&CMP=ema_565a

    Reply
  87. -Twitter – Anthony Sagliani 1026

    Major anticyclonic wave break over eastern Europe beginning around day 4 will lead to significant blocking pattern.

    Reply
    • – Hey, Robert.
      Are gifs embedded in Tweets a problem slowing down RS?
      It seems likely as they now end up in moderation.
      Some are quite informative so I am trying to just link to the Tweet rather than post the gif.

      – Ps how’s things in your area?
      DT

      Reply
  88. – Exxon in the news CA USA 1024

    ExxonMobil officials mum on what leaked from pipe rupture
    State investigators and smog regulators were at the massive, troubled ExxonMobil refinery in Torrance on Saturday to investigate why an 8-inch steam line ruptured and prompted a warning for residents to shelter in place and close their windows.

    But 18 hours after the failure, ExxonMobil would not disclose what chemicals were in the giant cloud of steam seen pouring out of the plant at about 6 p.m. Friday.

    The [smoke] column was as much as 200 feet high, Torrance Fire Department Capt. Bob Millea said.
    Sirens were activated to alert residents to shelter in place and close their windows, police said.
    …An explosion at the refinery on Feb. 18 rained a substance on nearby neighborhoods and residents…
    Regulators noted that the plant’s fluid catalytic cracker had not been working properly for as long as nine years prior to the blast.
    http://www.dailybreeze.com/general-news/20151024/exxonmobil-officials-mum-on-what-leaked-from-pipe-rupture

    Reply
  1. Unprecedented Cyclone Chapala Bears Down on Yemen | robertscribbler

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