A World Where Heat Haunts Us — 2015 May See Worst El Nino Ever as Global Temperatures Rocket Past 1 C Mark

It’s a world that’s adding more than 50 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent gasses to the atmosphere every single year. It’s a year where, according to Ralph Keeling, we are likely to never see atmospheric CO2 levels in the 300-399 parts per million range ever again in our lifetimes. And it’s a time when global temperatures are at their hottest ever recorded by human instruments — likely to hit a very dangerous range between  1 and 1.2 C hotter than 1880s averages during 2015 and 2016.

Tracking the 2 C limit

(As of August 2015, 12 month averages were in the range of 0.926 C below the so called ‘safe limit’ of 2 C warming since 1880. What may become the worst El Nino on record may combine with a growing overburden of human hothouse gasses to push global temperatures to within between 0.9 to 0.8 C of the +2 C limit during 2015 and 2016. For reference, the current pace of warming at approx 0.17 C per decade is more than 25 times faster than at the end of the last ice age. Image source: Skeptical Science.)

This is the context we all live in today. A world that’s sweltering in a toxic atmospheric stew of human hothouse gas emissions. But underneath that heat-amplifying context, the traditional ebb and flow of natural variability still has its own set of influences. And this year, the warm side of natural variability — in what may become the strongest El Nino ever recorded — is coming back to haunt us with a vengeance.

Previous Worst El Nino On Record

Forget the so called ‘2 C safe limit’ set by international government bodies for a moment and think about all the extreme weather, the droughts, the wildfires, the loss of access to water, the increasing rates of sea level rise, the increasing rates of glacial destabilization, and the rapid declines in ocean health that have all happened since 1997 — the previous worst El Nino year on record.

Back then, atmospheric CO2 levels had just breached the 360 parts per million mark. And, in that year a powerful El Nino — the peak of the natural variability hot side — shoved global temperatures into the range of 0.85 C above 1880s averages. It was the strongest El Nino ever recorded in the modern age. And it was occurring in a climate in which greenhouse gas concentrations were the highest seen in about 1 million years. It was a confluence of forces that propelled the Earth toward a new, more violent climate state. One not seen for millennia and one that was increasingly outside the ice-age and inter-glacial norm in which human beings evolved and learned to flourish.

Over the 2000s and early 2010s, despite a swing in atmospheric natural variability back toward ‘cool,’ negative PDO, conditions, global temperatures continued to climb. Greenhouse gasses were building up in the atmosphere at record rates. Rates about 6 times faster than during the Permian hothouse extinction event that wiped out 75 percent of life on land and more than 90 percent of life in the oceans. As a result, new global high temperature records were hit in 2005 and 2010 even as the oceans drew in a massive amount of atmospheric heat. Heat that, according to Dr, Kevin Trenberth, would again back up into the atmosphere as the natural limits for ocean heat uptake were eventually reached.

By 2014, as CO2 levels climbed into the 400 parts per million range and atmospheric heat uptake built, it appeared those limits had, indeed, been overwhelmed. Heat in the upper Equatorial Pacific Ocean began to spike as massive and powerful Kelvin Waves rippled across the world’s largest ocean, setting the stage for a new, monster El Nino. An El Nino that appeared to be building toward an event that would rival even the record 1997 El Nino.

2015 El Nino May Become Worst Ever Over Next Few Weeks

At first, the climb toward a record El Nino was slow. Even as ocean heat hit El Nino thresholds during the summer of 2014, the atmospheric response lagged — resulting in a steady climb into weak El Nino conditions through early 2015. Despite this slow advance, underlying conditions hinted at an extreme amount of available heat. The Oceanic hot pool was widespread and very intense — generating a heat bleed that pushed global atmospheric temperatures to new records for the year of 2014 and intensifying into 2015. By late Fall of 2015, atmospheric temperatures had rocketed into a range near 1.1 C above 1880s averages. But the top of the temperature spike was likely still to come.

For throughout October El Nino continued to strengthen, reaching a new height of 2.5 C above average in the benchmark Nino 3.4 zone last week. This temperature spike is comparable to a record in the same region at 2.7 C above average for peak weekly values during the 1997 El Nino.

image

(Setting up for a strongest El Nino on record? Global climate measures now show the Equatorial Pacific is becoming hot enough to challenge ocean surface temperature records previously set by the 1997 El Nino. If new record values are set, they could occur by early to mid November. Ocean temperature anomaly image source: Earth Nullschool.)

Unfortunately, heat continues to build in this benchmark region of the Pacific. A rudimentary grid analysis of ocean models and readings for this week indicate daily measures in the range of 2.5 to 2.8 C above average. Daily measures that show a consistent warming trend. A trend that, if it continues, is likely to push Nino 3.4 temperatures into a range comparable with or exceeding the 1997 El Nino high temperature mark by early-to-mid November.

In other words, the 2015 Monster El Nino event appears to be setting up to tie or beat the record-shattering 1997 El Nino over the next few weeks.

Max Temperature Spike is Coming

Regardless of whether we see the 1997 record shattered, it is likely that heat bleeding off the current Monster El Nino will continue to amplify atmospheric temperatures on through early Spring of 2016. What this means is that we haven’t seen the hottest global temperatures out of this event yet. Preliminary estimates for October are coming in the range of 1.1 to 1.3 C+ above 1880s values. Meanwhile, a peak in atmospheric temperature is likely to occur within 1-4 months after El Nino itself peaks. So though 2015 has been a record breaker so far, we may see global heat intensifying through to 2016 with new monthly temperatures testing never before seen ranges. This added heat provided from a Monster El Nino makes it a distinct possibility that we will see three back-to-back record hot years — 2014, 2015, and 2016.

Links:

Is This the Last Year Below 400 ppm CO2?

Global Development of Policy Regimes to Combat Climate Change

Deep Ocean Warming Coming Back to Haunt Us

Monster El Nino Emerging From the Depths

NASA GISS

Skeptical Science

NOAA’s Weekly El Nino Report

Earth Nullschool

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169 Comments

  1. Colorado Bob

     /  October 28, 2015

    Thousands homeless as El Nino floods sweep Somalia

    NAIROBI, Oct 28 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – Flash floods in Somalia have destroyed thousands of makeshift homes, as well as latrines and shallow wells, the United Nations said, predicting that up to 900,000 people could be hit by the strongest El Nino weather phenomenon in decades.

    The floods, which have made roads impassable and cut thousands off from aid, could reverse many of the humanitarian gains made in southern Somalia since 2011 when the Horn of Africa nation was devastated by famine, experts say.

    Some 3.2 million Somalis — one-third of the population –already needed life-saving aid and over one million were internally displaced before the rains began on Oct. 7.

    http://www.trust.org/item/20151028125008-dtjzo/?source=fiOtherNews2

    Reply
    • More extreme climate change related weather displacements on the way. Meanwhile, House republicans ramp up their attacks on scientists.

      Reply
  2. Abel Adamski

     /  October 28, 2015

    RS
    I wonder if that smoke from the fires in South America and Indonesia etc will have a dimming effect, moderating the temperature a little,especially the equatorial region
    The other side of Australia in Melbourne the sky has been increasingly “hazy” though no real smell of smoke

    Reply
    • Not a chance. We are already heavily loaded with particulate. In addition, black and brown carbon increase heat, rather than reduce it. And that heat bleed off the Pacific is going to hit us like a ton of bricks. These fires are amplifying feedbacks all the way — darkening cloud tops increases heat, adding ghg increases heat, adding black and brown carbon to the system increases heat.

      The primary heat reducer in particulate is due to whitening cloud tops. In this case, there’s no whitening. Just darkening that is directly in place to soak up that intense Equatorial sun.

      Reply
    • PlazaRed

       /  October 28, 2015

      Little by little a lot of the smoke particles from those fires will dissipate north and soot to land on the ice packs and glaciers, The darkened ice absorbs a lot more heat, hence increased melting speeds.
      With fires so close to the equator the soot and smoke will easily move into both hemispheres.

      At the moment in Europe a lot of agricultural fires are burning as ground is burned off and pruned braches burned. Its all a few more straws onto the camels back until one day something has to break.

      Reply
      • James Burton

         /  October 29, 2015

        Indeed! The build up of soot in Greenland is going to take a bad situation up there, and turn it catastrophic.

        Reply
  3. I hadn’t noticed before how rapidly the temps have increased since 1980, when globalized neo-liberal economic policies began to supplant regulation and a general regard for science and education.

    Reply
    • Yes. That’s basically when the march of lunacy really got out of hand.

      Reply
      • James Burton

         /  October 29, 2015

        Correct! In the 1980’s the world took a turn towards a system that in the end is suicidal. Both in the global warming sense and in the general economic sense. The great boom of the 90’s was both fake and built of a system that cheated the future of everything, just to earn short term gains for 90’s politicians. History books, which I read a lot of, will record the 1980’s as the decade a suicide pact was put in place, all for a short term economic boost.

        Reply
      • The late Washington Post editorial cartoonist Herbert Block (a.k.a. Herblock) was on the ground floor when all this madness started. And he called the marchers “Conservakooks.”

        Reply
    • Ouse M.D.

       /  October 28, 2015

      Maximum warming occurs about 10- 40 years after emissions. So, we already nailed it in the ’50s and ’60s. It’s a done deal- so, we just stepped on the gas, since then, hoping for some technological miracle comes along the ride.
      But You cannot fool thermodynamics.
      Time travel fastforward back to the Permian… That’s what we get.
      On an over- populated, over- used, over- polluted planet along with nuclear weapons and 400+ nuclear reactors.
      Only radiation remains.

      Reply
      • We’ve locked in about 1.9 C warming this Century even if we can somehow plateau emissions now. Call it a crash course to get to 2 C this Century. We need to be net negative carbon emissions by mid Century to hit below that mark, in my view.

        That’s a tough world, but one worth fighting for. The other one where we keep burning fossil fuels is far, far worse.

        Reply
      • Keep the present economic paradigm and throw peak oil into the mix, and people wil be burning coal, then biomass out of desperation. Finally the human project will devolve first into tribal warfare, then everyone will be fighting each other like starving rats. Then, Earth will shake humanity off like fleas.

        Or we could throw out the current economic paradigm. Kind of hard to do when consent of the governed has been manufactured for over a hundred years…😮

        Reply
      • Tsar Nicholas

         /  October 29, 2015

        “Only radiation remains.”

        Brilliant! i presume that you are satirising an evolutionary biologist from Arizona?

        Reply
    • Spike

       /  October 29, 2015

      It’s stunning – I recall an article asking the question when in the 20th century would the coolest year be warmer than the warmest year of the 20th – 1998. They came up with a projection of around 2047. Well just looking at the last 14 years the coolest seems to be 2008, which was less than 0.1C cooler than 1998. So barring a huge volcanic eruption I suspect that change may well be much sooner. Early days I know but it shows how warm the last decade or so has been when anomalies are so close to the 98 super El Niño.

      Reply
      • Spike

         /  October 29, 2015

        Typo – should be when in 21st C

        Reply
      • Looks like it could be this decade. We are already aerosol heavy in this atmosphere. It would take a rather severe eruption to have much impact.

        Reply
      • ” aerosol heavy in this atmosphere”, likely putting a lid on the fire smoke too. Keeping it low to the ground at terrestrial level.

        Reply
  4. climatehawk1

     /  October 28, 2015

    Tweeting.

    Reply
  5. Kevin Jones

     /  October 28, 2015

    Not at all to belittle GISS methodology or 1951-1980 baseline, but I do appreciate this skepticalscience chart. Thanks for it!

    Reply
    • I’m glad they’re using the 1880 baseline quite honestly. No moving goal posts.

      Reply
      • Kevin Jones

         /  October 28, 2015

        Unless William Ruddiman’s early anthropogenic hypothesis, which I find fascinating, holds up. Then the goal posts would back up even further….

        Reply
        • True. Back to when Global CO2 was at around 240 to 250 ppm rather than 275. Which would account for about 0.1 to 0.2 C.

          But I think the 1880s baseline is a good one for our context.

  6. Bill H

     /  October 28, 2015

    Robert, You mention preliminary values for the Oct 2015 global temperature anomaly wrt to 1880s of 1.1 to 1.2. According to the SKS graph we already reached that in September. Looking at Nick Stokes’ website it now looks as if October values will be about 0.2 degrees C higher than this – pushing 1.4 deg!

    http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html

    Reply
  7. Kevin Jones

     /  October 28, 2015

    Well if ’97-’98 was prologue, ’97 came in at .48C, a new record in NASA’s global surface temperature chart. To be smashed in ’98 by .15C (.63C)….so, say 2015 ends at .80C…. 2016 could then be .95C! (plus .2 or so from the1880’s….1.15….)

    Reply
  8. Kevin Jones

     /  October 28, 2015

    And The Economic Times says the European Commission says under current pledges we’re going to 3C……

    Reply
    • PlazaRed

       /  October 29, 2015

      If a degree C is added every 30 years then things might not slow down until the humans have totally expired.
      I think that maybe in about 20 years the complacency about the temp rises will change to panic.

      Reply
      • Steven Blaisdell

         /  October 29, 2015

        Overt, mass panic in 20 yrs in the Anglo industrialized world thanks to the criminal and ruthless delaying tactics of sociopaths like Lamar Alexander. We’ll see a number of localized, regional freak outs before then – Sao Paulo is a good preliminary example, third world countries/regions less resilient (read: rich) than first world.

        Reply
      • Steven Blaisdell

         /  October 29, 2015

        Sorry – Lamar Smith, not Lamar Alexander. I deeply apologize to the esteemed Mr. Alexander.

        Reply
    • And the current pledges plus any others included in the upcoming Paris deal will set off a $90trln energy revolution, according to Ambrose E. Pierce.

      http://www.theautomaticearth.com/2015/10/debt-rattle-october-29-2015/

      Of course, The Automatic Earth is skeptical on whether we are going to find the money…. :p

      Reply
  9. Ryan in New England

     /  October 28, 2015

    Bill McKibben, imagine if Exxon had told the truth about climate change?

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/28/imagine-if-exxon-had-told-the-truth-on-climate-change

    Reply
    • All you have to do is look at the political action of republicans in congress to see that the big oil companies haven’t changed one bit. The fraud and bullying against the public is ongoing, major and seems to be worsening.

      Reply
      • Steven Blaisdell

         /  October 29, 2015

        Jackals around the shrinking waterhole. Rabid parasitical vermin sentencing millions to horrible death. They will not be judged kindly.

        Reply
      • Ryan in New England

         /  October 29, 2015

        The destruction of this island oasis we call Earth, only to satisfy the greed and provide comfort to a handful of elites, is the most immoral crime I can think of. To sacrifice the future of every human being (not to mention the rest of the biosphere), even their own progeny, has to be one of the stupidest crimes I can think of.

        Reply
      • Dave Person

         /  October 29, 2015

        Hey Steven,
        Stop demeaning jackals. They are wonderful canids. The republicans in congress are more akin to the pus in a pimple. Even then, pus serves a useful purpose.

        dave

        Reply
  10. Perhaps we could to add “to date” after each superlative to keep in view the perspective of abrupt climate change taking us to “where no man has gone before”.

    Sent from my iPad 🙏🏻

    >

    Reply
    • That’s a lot of qualifiers. We break new records daily, it seems.

      Reply
      • Well the weather is broken.
        We did break it.
        And at a record pace.
        Breaking news is now telling us we are breaking records at record speeds.
        When will we put the ‘brakes’ on this record breaking?🙂
        OUT

        Reply
      • labmonkey2

         /  October 29, 2015

        Well, dt – probably not until the entire ‘Merry-go-Round Breaks Down’…. (props to Roger Rabbit).

        Reply
      • – A linear Merry-go-round?

        Reply
  11. James Burton

     /  October 29, 2015

    It is almost a joke when I confront the lunatic skeptics. The very idea that the oceans are the great heat sink, that take up most of the surplus energy that now fails to escape to space due to greenhouse gases, seems to astound the learned skeptics! Skeptics in politics and the media are paid well to spew their skeptical line. The most sad part is the large number of normally decent people who have been brainwashed by media to view science as unreliable and untrustworthy, When I was a kid, Americans were taught to look up to scientists and the sciences. Media praised their work. Today, with the corruption of media by a select group of self interested corporations, Americans look askance at science, even though they live in a world made possible by science.
    Global warming may sometimes be hard for a layman to fully grasp. Just like semi conductor physics are hard for a layman to grasp. But our computers still work, and the world still warms in tune with C02 emission! I use this comparison on the skeptics that haunt economics blogs, and that usually forces them to withdraw in silence.

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  October 29, 2015

      That kind of ignorance/hypocrisy makes my head want to explode! A bunch of idiots using the fruits that science has given us (electricity, computers, cell phones, internet, etc) to declare science a fraud. You can see the results of the right wing propaganda that’s been brainwashing the electorate for decades in the race for President. Jeb Bush is so frustrated he can’t hide it, unable to believe that the Republican base is in love with Trump…a self-centered, self promoting lunatic who wouldn’t know the first thing about governing. And Jeb, the self described adult in the room, can’t understand why his right wing base can’t be reasoned with. It’s a monster of their own making, and they have lost control of the asylum. The patients are now running the place. Sadly, it spells doom for us all.

      Reply
      • I’m thinking maybe it is an unintended consequence of Citizens United and the Kochs’ effort to organize the super-wealthy and funnel their money into politics. I have the impression that not only are many billionaires right-wing crackpots, they are right-wing crackpots who are used to having their own way, and so they’re supporting a variety of wingnuts instead of coalescing behind Jeb as one would expect. It would be popcorn time, except for the Kochs’ successes in corrupting the Congressional redistricting process and state legislatures–something that probably cannot be undone until 2020.

        Reply
  12. Andy in SD

     /  October 29, 2015

    All this is going on, and then we get this…

    Congressman doubles down, accuses NOAA scientists of doctoring results
    Rep. Lamar Smith claims temperature data were fudged for Obama Administration.

    http://arstechnica.com/science/2015/10/congressman-doubles-down-accuses-noaa-scientists-of-doctoring-results/

    Reply
    • He needs some excuse to demand their communication history. I wonder how we the people can help on a grassroots level. We are stuck with an R dominated House for a long time. They own 31-32 governorships…how can climate activists push back on these increasingly brazen attacks on our scientists? I’m at a loss, Andy.

      Reply
      • I personally believe the divestment campaign is the ultimate lever. The really smart money is already pulling back from coal, and no investor wants to be left holding the bag when demand for fossil fuels collapses. So I tweet a lot about divestment actions, and about articles that talk about the massive amount of stranded assets that will be left. See, for instance, this item from a day or two ago: http://www.sacbee.com/opinion/op-ed/soapbox/article41721483.html. The Kochs and Exxon can keep buying politicians, but I don’t think they can buy hedge funds, or fool pension funds about what is happening, for very long.

        I’m starting to archive tweets by topical thread in a Facebook “group” that is just for that purpose. There are about 40 articles on divestment so far, in just a couple of months. Those interested can join the group here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1475938476062342/

        So … supporting these campaigns, via the usual methods (letters to editor, pester the college you attended, publicity via social media), is something pretty much anyone can do.

        Reply
    • Steven Blaisdell

       /  October 29, 2015

      Lamar Smith is a pig, and I don’t say that lightly. I tried to visit his office here in Austin once several years ago to discuss a local issue; my friends and I were treated like dirt by his staff, ignored as if we weren’t there, then told the congressman would not spare any time for us, then or later, as we weren’t residents of his district – even though it was a local issue that directly influenced his constituency. Prime example of the all-too-common vicious, stupid Texas politician. The devil takes many shapes and colors – look to Lamar Smith, ye of doubt.

      Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 29, 2015

        Steven, he forgot that you help pay his salary too. I’m so sorry–such a demoralizing experience. This issue of attacking, violating their privacy and dignity–smacks of fascism in its pure and unadulterated form…Walker in Wisconsin gutted the state’s environmental science department(dozens fired…dozens). We have 30 other states with GOP gov’s. If left unchecked I’m afraid they won’t stop with climate scientists…..it seems that there is no scientist that is safe to publish data not favorable for R talking points, including ground-breaking medical researchers at the NIH.

        Reply
      • Wharf Rat

         /  October 29, 2015

        Lamar Smith has bad karma

        Damage from Patricia, the strongest hurricane ever measured in the Western Hemisphere, may cost the U.S. billions from floods, even after the storm spared the largest cities in Mexico.

        Flooding in Texas may lead to more than $3 billion in losses, though it’s too early to project the extent of damages, according to Chuck Watson, director of research and development at Kinetic Analysis Corp. Losses in Mexico are likely to be less than $2 billion, he said.

        http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-25/hurricane-flooding-may-cost-texas-billions-after-mexico-s-luck?utm_source=climatenexus&utm_medium=referral

        Reply
      • Dave Person

         /  October 30, 2015

        Hey Steven,
        Stop demeaning pigs. They are very intelligent animals compared with republicans.

        dave

        Reply
  13. Andy in SD

     /  October 29, 2015

    If you look at the sea ice concentration anomaly for Antarctica at the bottom of the Pacific side, it looks like the sea ice is getting burned off at light speed.

    Reply
  14. Feds: Winter salmon run nearly extinguished in California drought

    For the second straight year, huge numbers of juvenile winter-run Chinook salmon appear to have baked to death in the Sacramento River because of California’s drought-stretched water supplies, bringing the endangered species a step closer to extinction.

    The grim statistics released by federal officials Wednesday raise the specter of more water cuts for agriculture next summer and restrictions on next year’s commercial and recreational salmon fishing seasons. Even a strong El Niño winter might not be enough to prevent those outcomes.
    http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article41684160.html

    Reply
  15. Ryan in New England

     /  October 29, 2015

    Study reveals CO2 concentrations can have a negative impact on human cognition.

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/10/26/3714853/carbon-dioxide-impair-brain/

    I had read about increased acidity in the oceans having an effect on the cognitive ability of fish (changed reaction to predators, altered behavior) but this is the first I’ve learned of the effects on humans. Yet another reason to curb emissions ASAP.

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  October 29, 2015

      Explains the GOP and the Texan Congressmen

      Reply
    • – Absolutely!
      Of course.
      Fossil fuel emissions – as well as traffic dusts, are toxic gases and debris (particulate).
      Most are neurotoxic, phytotoxic, and children toxic — believe it.
      Why do you think they put the exhaust pipe on the far rear corner of cars. And at pedestrian and toddler airway level.
      Meanwhile the driver sits up front in an enclosed atmospheric environment.
      – So many cars and drivers. So little cognitive, and moral, function.
      – No ‘sane’ moral culture or society would create so much poison.

      – Ever wonder why so many respiratory conditions (like COPD) and remedies are around these days?
      Though immune systems have undoubtedly been compromised from it — the source of the causes have multiplied as fast as the atmosphere has gotten clogged with them (emissions).

      OUT

      Reply
    • ‘Associations of Cognitive Function Scores with Carbon Dioxide, Ventilation, and Volatile Organic Compound Exposures in Office Workers: A Controlled Exposure Study of Green and Conventional Office Environments’

      – Think about the minimum-or-less wage earner at the TAKE OUT window of an average corporate fast food place.
      Powerful fans above interior stoves are always pulling in air and the pollution.
      http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/15-10037/

      Reply
    • – I posted this related piece on the 27th:

      Air pollution stunting children’s lungs, study finds
      A six-year study finds children living in highly polluted parts of cities have up to 10 per cent less lung capacity than normal, with warnings the damage could be permanent

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/journalists/laura-donnelly/11953613/Air-pollution-stunting-childrens-lungs-study-finds.html

      Reply
    • – Most importantly — the heavier emission stay low, or drop to terrestrial level. The lighter and more gaseous emissions float up and destroy the atmosphere.
      All from the same source(s).

      Reply
    • – For the DSM:

      ‘Negative Cognitive Function — Community or Environment as Cause”

      Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  October 30, 2015

      Good article on CO2 and cognition
      http://climatecrocks.com/2015/10/26/could-co2-bring-on-the-zombie-apocalypse-more-evidence/

      “NASA has also observed CO2-related health impacts on International Space Station (ISS) astronauts at much lower CO2 levels than expected and has identified a mechanism by which CO2 levels could affect the brain, as I will discuss in Part 2. As a result, NASA has already lowered the maximum allowable CO2 levels on the space station. The ISS crew surgeon who is the lead for studying the impact on astronauts of CO2 (and other gases) told Climate Progress he considers the original LBNL-SUNY study “very credible.” Indeed, NASA itself is now starting terrestrial studies to look at the impact of CO2 on judgment and decision-making for the astronaut cohort — and it is partnering with the same SUNY team of behavioral psychologists.

      All of this new research is consistent with — and actually helps explain — literally dozens of studies in the past two decades that find low to moderate levels of CO2 have a negative impact on productivity, learning, and test scores.”

      Reply
  16. Colorado Bob

     /  October 29, 2015

    How Indonesia’s fires made it the biggest climate polluter

    Indonesia’s forest fires have catapulted the southeast Asian nation to the top of the rankings of the world’s worst global warming offenders, with daily emissions exceeding those of China on at least 14 days in the past two months.

    The nation’s total daily carbon dioxide emissions, including from power generation, transport and industry, exceeded those of the U.S. on 47 of the 74 days through October 28, according to Bloomberg analysis of national emissions data from the World Resources Institute in Washington and Indonesian fire- emissions data from VU University in Amsterdam.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/how-indonesias-fires-made-it-the-biggest-climate-polluter-20151028-gklbz3.html#ixzz3pxfXSeGf

    Reply
  17. Wharf Rat

     /  October 29, 2015

    I just stumbled over this article from last year. Didn’t hurt much.

    Will New Climate Regulations Destroy the Economy? (Hint: No.)

    “Henry Ford II, in 1966 on regulations addressing seat belt & safety glass mandates, said ‘We’ll have to close down’.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-h-gleick/will-new-climate-regulati_b_5432090.html

    Reply
  18. Kevin Jones

     /  October 29, 2015

    South Africa sets Earth’s Hottest Temperature for October: 119F –Jeff Masters (Oct. 27th, and this is like April for them….)

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  October 29, 2015

      ….hottest temp anywhere on Earth for month of October ever recorded….

      Reply
  19. Tipping Point Nears for ‘Emerging Flooding Crisis’

    “Flooding has already become 10 times more likely in Baltimore and Honolulu and five times more likely in Philadelphia, Norfolk, Va., and Charleston, S.C., since 1930. That’s in large part because since the start of the 20th century, sea levels have risen by about 8 inches globally due to human greenhouse gas emissions that have caused oceans to warm and land ice to melt, swelling the seas.

    “It’s an emerging flooding crisis,” William Sweet, an oceanographer with NOAA who led the new report, said.”

    http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/tipping-point-nears-for-emerging-flooding-crisis-climate-central

    Reply
  20. Colorado Bob

     /  October 29, 2015

    Climate change is doing some very strange things to the waters off New England

    It’s just the latest in a series of findings and occurrences — ranging from gigantic snows in Boston earlier last winter, which scientists partly linked with warm seas, to a sudden and “extreme” sea level rise event in 2009-2010 — suggesting that this particular stretch of water is undergoing profound changes.

    “2004 to 2013, we ended up warming faster than really any other marine ecosystem has ever experienced over a 10 year period,” says Andrew Pershing of the Gulf of Maine Research Institute, lead author of the new study just out in the journal Science. Pershing conducted the work with researchers from his institution and several others in the U.S. including NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo., and Stony Brook University in New York.

    Link

    Reply
    • wili

       /  October 30, 2015

      Are there a lot of sea bed clathrate in that area? If so, should we expect to see them start to destabilize pretty soon?

      Reply
  21. – Algae again!

    Algal Blooms Linked to Largest Die-Off of Great Whales Ever Recorded

    In Argentina baby whales have been dying off the coast in increasingly high numbers for the past decade and no one has known exactly why. … “90 percent of the deaths from 2005 to 2014 were very young calves fewer than three months old.
    The mystery killer appeared to be targeting the nearly newborn, sometimes more than 100 calves of the endangered species each year.”

    … Mammal Science, NOAA Fisheries and NOAA Ocean Service scientists and others from the U.S. and Argentina believe they have found the culprit: toxic algal blooms.
    …found to pose a significant threat to fisheries and other wildlife, so it’s no surprise that the blooms are wreaking havoc on whale populations, as well.

    Reply
  22. Ryan in New England

     /  October 29, 2015

    Some good news on the solar front. Prices have become competitive with (and even lower than) traditional fossil fuel derived power.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/29/how-tanzania-plans-to-light-up-a-million-homes-with-solar-power

    Before solar panels were installed at Masaki village’s only health centre, doctors, nurses and midwives had to use dim flashlights or the glow from their cellphones to deliver babies and treat night-time emergencies.

    In one case in 2010, a man arrived late after a motorcycle accident and needed a wound stitching. As the nurse began the procedure by the light of her torch, she felt a cold slithering sensation against her legs.

    A large black snake was moving across the dark, cement floor. The nurse fled, leaving the patient in the dark with the snake.

    The work of the centre, which is five hours drive down a dirt track from the capital Dar es Salaam and serves a population of 1.5 million people in surrounding villages, is now transformed by a two kilowatt solar array installed on the roof at a cost of $15,000 (£9,700). And the government wants many more like it.

    Reply
  23. – Anthropogenic Acid Rain

    Researchers link crayfish decline in Algonquin Park lakes to lack of calcium
    October 28, 2015

    Researchers from Queen’s University, working with colleagues from the Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change, have linked the localized near-extinction of a native crayfish species in four lakes in Algonquin Park to declining calcium levels, a long-term legacy of acid rain on forest soils and aquatic ecosystems.

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-10-link-crayfish-decline-algonquin-lakes.html#jCp

    Reply
  24. Colorado Bob

     /  October 29, 2015

    Another warm, dry month to come after record hot October for Australia

    Climate change behind record warmth
    Australia’s firefighters may be in for a tough summer with conditions that led to record heat in October likely to linger into a warmer and drier than average November and beyond, the Bureau of Meteorology said.
    With a couple of days to go, October is heading towards record warmth nationally, with cities such as Melbourne likely to set a new record by some measure, Andrew Watkins, manager of climate prediction services for the bureau, said. (See the bureau’s chart for the first 26 days of October below:)

    Link

    Reply
  25. Colorado Bob

     /  October 29, 2015

    BREAKING: Hillary Clinton Endorses Federal Investigation Of Exxon

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/10/29/3717602/clinton-investigate-exxon/

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  October 29, 2015

      Climate Change just the ballot.

      Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  October 29, 2015

      Just noticed that too, Bob. Almost posted a link, but then I noticed you were already on top of it.🙂 Unfortunately, the cynic in me suspects she is just parroting what Democrats and Independents want to hear. She will come out in support of an investigation, which will result in public hearings, corporate fines, and the illusion of a real desire to uncover criminal behavior and prosecute the guilty. Just like what happened after the financial meltdown…lots of talk and show for the public, but the corporate executives who ruined countless lives and lined their pockets with tens and hundreds of millions got to keep all their money and barely even had to apologize. O course when corporations and their lobbyists write the laws, they usually exempt their own behaviors from becoming illegal.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  October 29, 2015

        Ryan in New England

        Who cares what she’s up to , the subject is now front and center. and these people that found out Exxon, aren’t going to lay down. The email worm has turned.

        Reply
      • – I agree, “the subject is now front and center.”
        Still, who else in that realm also knew.
        How much?
        And when?
        Was any info shared with stockholders, etc.?
        There was too much plundering going for other not to stumble upon.

        OUT

        Reply
      • Ryan, I too had the same reaction when it came up on my twitter feed..but, as Bob and DT alluded to, at this point, it’s out of even these candidates’ hands at this point. Their choice is whether to stand on right side of history or not. There’s too much evidence of malfeasance to ignore. That the investigation begins with a D DOJ is crucial, imo. Sometimes the universe conspires to save us.!

        Reply
      • Ryan in New England

         /  October 30, 2015

        Bob, I agree with you. It’s great that the revelation about Exxon is getting traction in the media, and even better that lawmakers are calling for investigations. Our single biggest impediment in this fight is the denier crowd and the fossil fuel interests that fund them. The news about Exxon eliminates whatever credibility they may have thought that they had (we all know the deniers were NEVER credible, and never produced actual science). Public opinion is undergoing a radical transformation, and the Exxon scandal will only help our cause. I’m just saying, don’t expect any real accountability from these criminals.

        On a side note, it blows my mind that despite the truth finally being revealed about Exxon and their propaganda campaign, the denier crowd still clings to their flat Earth ideology! They have been informed that yes, global warming is real and the oil companies have known all along, and so they embarked on a mission to convince the ignorant that it’s all BS…and the deniers still insist that they’ve got it all figured out. I guess even the oil companies have joined the liberal conspiracy. It’s fascinating…the kids have learned that their parents made up the entire Santa story, yet they still cling to the belief that Santa has been bringing them gifts all these years!

        Reply
  26. Wharf Rat

     /  October 29, 2015

    Yes We Can…

    Protests Are Putting A Serious Dent In Tar Sands Expansion

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/10/29/3717335/pipeline-opposition-stopping-tar-sands-expansion/

    Reply
  27. Colorado Bob

     /  October 29, 2015

    Never in American History has this subject come up for debate. Hillary just put the the lizard bus on notice.

    Reply
  28. Colorado Bob

     /  October 29, 2015

    Jesus better come to Hillery , and he better come soon.

    Reply
  29. Colorado Bob

     /  October 30, 2015

    The Chambers Brothers – Time Has Come Today

    Reply
  30. – The power of photography:

    Edward Burtynsky’s Mesmerizing Images of Copper Mines

    Trying to comprehend the scale of open-pit extraction with aerial photographs.

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/10/25/magazine/25mag-copper.html?smid=tw-nytimesphoto&smtyp=cur&_r=0

    Reply
  31. Climate change will be an economic disaster for rich and poor, new study says

    The argument against addressing climate change always has been fundamentally an economic one: We can’t afford the needed disruptions to our fossil fuel-driven society.

    Now a trio of researchers at UC Berkeley and Stanford have come to the opposite conclusion. In a paper just published in Nature, they find that we can’t afford not to address climate change.

    http://www.trbimg.com/img-562e6e12/turbine/la-fi-mh-climate-change-economic-disaster-2015-002/750/750×422

    Reply
    • LJR

       /  October 30, 2015

      So we are supposed to believe that Brazil will have a 100% reduction in GDP?

      Give me a break. 100% means their GDP will totally disappear. NOT LIKELY.

      More finger painting from the kindercollege crew.

      Reply
      • He, President Dilma is trying to make that happen, but I doubt things will get that bad, unless it’s a collapse situation. But one possibility is that they’re counting areas that will become inhabitable for humans as having a 100% reduction in GDP.

        There are vast areas in Brasil where temps already get over 30oCs or even 40oC in the summer as a routine. Rio de Janeiro (Rio 40oCs is a catchy phrase around here), almost all the Amazon (forested areas are more forgiving, but one of the various reasons that make raising cattle in the Amazon a bad proposal is that cattle death for overheating is a commonplace ocorrence in the shadowless pastures), Mato Grosso (Cuiabá is famous for the infernal heat that makes being in the city without air conditioning a dangerous proposition for newcomers. “Insolation city”)… Maybe it’s just the notoriously always higher than official temps street thermometers, but I’ve seem those showing 40oC already in São Paulo (and 46oC in Cuiabá. That was awful and made me do my tourist in Cuiabá obrigatory tour of the hospital because of insolation).

        A low humidity in hotter days is what keeps those places livable, but if they get hotter still, they may become unlivable and unproductive, even with heat tolerant plants and cattle (those are some of the main areas of research of Embrapa, our agricultural research agency. Sucess in those fostered the now thriving agribusiness in Cerrado areas, but there are limits even for those heat tolerant plants). The PIB in much of the Northeast hinterlands is already near 0 (at least they depend on outside aid and resources flows for surviving, I don’t know enough economy to be sure if that can be considered 0 PIB or not), because of both heat and drought turning agriculture into an almost impossible experiment.

        Colder areas of Brasil should remain livable, but… well, São Paulo, responsable for 32% of Brasil’s PIB, for example, is very near the point where our water delivery system is collapsed, for example. Lack of water equals lack of eletric energy around here, and I can’t phantom the economy working without water and/or energy.

        I don’t known what scenario the authors of that article assumed (it’s behind a paywall), but if they assumed a greater than 4oC rise in temperatures, the possibility that Brasil’s economy could collapse doesn’t seem so far fetched for me.

        Reply
      • Those “30oC” are 30 degrees Celsius, not 300C. I don’t know how to make the “o” superscript, and it seems confuse in the text.

        Reply
  32. Climate Change is Decimating Cod in the Gulf of Maine


    The research, published on Thursday in Science, shows that waters in the region have recently warmed at an unprecedented rate. Fisheries management has not been able to keep up with the warming, resulting in cod stocks that are at just 3 to 4 percent of sustainable levels. Continued rapid warming could mean that cod, a staple of fishermen in the region for centuries, could disappear.

    http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-decimating-cod-maine-19617

    Reply
  33. Colorado Bob

     /  October 30, 2015

    Time Has Come Today

    Reply
  34. Colorado Bob

     /  October 30, 2015

    Ted Kopple has a new book , about an attack on our electric grid. Only the Morons are ready..

    They have 3 months of food.

    WE HAVE ZIP.

    Reply
  35. Syd Bridges

     /  October 30, 2015

    With the 3.4 anomaly now at 2.5 deg C, we could well see the passing of tje 1997 record of 2.7. And, as you mention, an extra 40 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere, we will see record temperatures for the second year running and quite likely a third year too. But after that, Lamar Smith will be able to claim that global temperatures are falling and some loonies will extrapolate that drop of 0.09 deg C so that we have an ice age by century’s end!

    It was earlier this year that Judith Curry drew a line through 1998, 2010 and 2014 and said the trend looked flat to her. I guess the Earth does too. I recall Eli Rabbett pointing out that one could also draw a straight line through the years where temperatures were local minima on the graph and it had a much steeper slope. Indeed, extrapolated forward, it would soon cross Judith’s flat line for the peaks of the graph. But, as Upton Sinclair said ‘It “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.’

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  October 30, 2015

      These years will be the next cherry the deniers pick. It’s going to replace their super cherry from 98.

      Reply
  36. redskylite

     /  October 30, 2015

    From one or two lectures I have absorbed, I understand that the atmosphere tends to mix latitudinal (rather than longitudinally). I also understood that climate change was strongest at the higher Northern latitudes, and slowly spread to the lowers half. All the talk on global temperatures worries me, because it seems to give a slightly optimistic impression, things are better than they actually are. Interesting report on NASA’s TIMED mission and unexpected CO2 mixing monitoring results.

    http://phys.org/news/2015-10-flies-unexpected-trends-carbon.html

    Reply
  37. redskylite

     /  October 30, 2015

    Those other Northern Hemisphere occupants also seem to be in Judith Curry’s indifference camp, and won’t admit anything is changing, until they are submerged and cooked.

    http://www.trust.org/item/20151029114920-iyqxh/?source=fiOtherNews2

    Reply
  38. Ryan in New England

     /  October 30, 2015

    Bill Gates says government is needed to deal with climate change, because the private sector is “inept”.

    http://www.truthdig.com/eartotheground/item/bill_gates_only_goverment_can_save_the_climate_the_20151029

    Reply
  39. Abel Adamski

     /  October 30, 2015

    Starting to get some coverage
    ” human body may be able to adapt to extremes of dry-bulb temperature (commonly referred to as simply temperature) through perspiration and associated evaporative cooling provided that the wet-bulb temperature (a combined measure of temperature and humidity or degree of ‘mugginess’) remains below a threshold of 35 °C. (ref. 1). This threshold defines a limit of survivability for a fit human under well-ventilated outdoor conditions and is lower for most people. We project using an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations that extremes of wet-bulb temperature in the region around the Arabian Gulf are likely to approach and exceed this critical threshold under the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results expose a specific regional hotspot where climate change, in the absence of significant mitigation, is likely to severely impact human habitability in the future.”

    Unfortunately pay per view
    http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2833.html

    Reply
    • wili

       /  October 30, 2015

      This is big! (perhaps worthy of an rs post??? ‘-))

      According to other coverage of this study, within about 50 years parts of the ME will have wbt events long enough to kill everyone outside…every decade. It seems to me that you would only need one such event to make that area pretty well permanently uninhabitable for ever.

      So, basically, it’s going to start pretty soon, well before 50 years, that parts of the globe are going to become permanently uninhabitable directly because of heat (plus humidity).

      Reply
  40. Abel Adamski

     /  October 30, 2015

    It is the oceans that determine liveability
    http://universityofcalifornia.edu/news/formation-coastal-sea-ice-drives-ocean-circulation

    An unprecedented analysis of North Pacific ocean circulation over the past 1.2 million years has found that sea ice formation in coastal regions is a key driver of deep ocean circulation, influencing climate on regional and global scales. Coastal sea ice formation takes place on relatively small scales, however, and is not captured well in global climate models, according to scientists at the University of California, Santa Cruz, who conducted the study.

    A paper on the new findings will be published in a future issue of the journal Paleoceanography and is currently available online.

    “We have identified an important process that current global climate models don’t adequately capture. Coastal sea ice formation may be important to future climate change because the arctic and subarctic regions are warming at twice the rate of other parts of the world,” said first author Karla Knudson, a graduate student in Earth and planetary sciences at UC Santa Cruz.

    Reply
    • wili

       /  October 30, 2015

      Good catch. Here’s one of the takeaways: “It is hard to convey the scale of this inferno, but here’s a comparison that might help: it is currently producing more carbon dioxide than the US economy.”

      Reply
    • – Good quote we can relate to.:

      “What I did not expect was that they would ignore it.”

      In the greatest environmental disaster of the 21st Century (so far), Indonesia has been blotted out by smoke. And the media.

      I’ve often wondered how the media would respond when eco-apocalypse struck. I pictured the news programmes producing brief, sensational reports, while failing to explain why it was happening or how it might be stopped. Then they would ask their financial correspondents how the disaster affected share prices…

      What I did not expect was that they would ignore it.

      Reply
      • – The cruel folly of allowing aerosol pollution in a community and the pretense of civilization..
        This so represents our shortcomings. It’s way beyond belief.
        Our lungs and airways are our atmosphere.
        ….

        “Nor do the greenhouse gas emissions capture the impact on the people of these lands.

        After the last great conflagration, in 1997, there was a missing cohort in Indonesia of 15,000 children under the age of three, attributed to air pollution.
        This, it seems, is worse. The surgical masks being distributed across the nation will do almost nothing to protect those living in a sunless smog. Members of parliament in Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) have had to wear face masks during debates. The chamber is so foggy that they must have difficulty recognising each other.”

        Reply
    • The George Monbiot, piece is very well written — articulate with history and empathy.

      Reply
  41. doug

     /  October 30, 2015

    I just called Lamar Smith’s Washington office and left a message with his staff. It was to stop harassing climate scientists. They seemed a little taken aback and I don’t think they are getting a lot of calls on this.

    Why not?

    His number is 202-225-4236

    Reply
    • – Good job!

      Reply
    • Thanks Doug. I called that number and the person who answered transferred me to Smith’s team who handles the Science and Technology committee issues. “We deal with constituent-only problems.” Austin is flooding today and I imagine they have their hands full. I tried being non-confrontational by saying : “I’m calling based on what I’ve read in the media and wanting to check in with his office to learn if it comports with what he is indeed doing.” Response? He posted something on Facebook which should answer your questions.

      Here is the direct # to his “Science and Technology” team:

      202-225-6371.

      Reply
    • Christina in Honolulu

       /  October 30, 2015

      Message left expressing extreme disapproval about subpoena circus. Thanks for getting the number!

      Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 31, 2015

        Thanks for letting us know Christina! I’ve done this for other issues over the years and it feels good to make a direct citizen complaint to the source. Truly does.

        Reply
  42. dnem

     /  October 30, 2015

    Here we go again. Another unprecedented (or nearly) meteorological phenomenon as Cyclone Chapala explodes from TS to Cat 4 intensity in 24 hours. In a place that doesn’t really GET tropical cyclones. Parts of Yemen and Oman may receive several YEARS worth of rainfall in the next few days. http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/cyclone-chapala-yemen-oman-arabian-peninsula

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  October 30, 2015

      This is one to watch especially for Eastern Yemen where it is expected to hit and which is suffering terribly now from war and near famine. “Imagine that you live directly on the Gulf, but in a place where it hardly ever rains, and where a hurricane has never hit, for at least a generation–for more than sixty years. Your community and many like yours are situated not only directly on the water, but near or in large dry riverbeds on the coastal plain, which is a narrow strip of sandy shoreline that is the dropoff for the three-thousand-foot mountain range behind it. Even many of the roads up into the mountains are in these dry riverbeds, which course through deep canyons as they rise into the heights. You don’t have any idea what it might mean to experience winds of over 100 miles per hour, whipping up sand, and torrential rain against these mountains that can turn the riverbeds into conduits for dangerous flash floods. And you don’t have any idea what storm surge is, and can’t conceive of wind-driven high waves that could break against the shoreline and leave nothing behind.”

      Reply
  43. Jeremy

     /  October 30, 2015

    My son is eleven and loves me.
    When he’s 21 he will hate me and this generation.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/30/vast-amazon-wildfire-destroys-forest-in-brazil-and-threatens-uncontacted-tribe

    Reply
    • Doug

       /  October 30, 2015

      Jeremy, if you are on Robert Scribbler’s site you very likely are not one to blame much. So don’t be hard on yourself. And I doubt your son will blame you either.

      Republicans? That’s another story.

      Reply
    • Jeremy,
      Remember, though — there are quite few “this generation[s]”.
      I think quite a few are around here too.
      Practically speaking, every American decade producing generation is culpable to some extent.
      Begin with 1920-30-40-50s and the ‘franken-birth’ of the car/consumer culture still at work today.
      That was total disconnect with the reality of fossil fuel burning.
      Everyone knew that everything quickly died from exposure to the emissions — everyone.

      Deviously though — we just built taller smokestacks and put engine exhaust pipes at the rear of the even bigger cars driven more often for more lazy-stupid reasons. Very devious and callous since all did know of the dangers, and the casualties.
      That’s history though.
      Now we must do what we can to ease the suffering of the innocent.

      Hate/ mistrust/fear/anger is often later salved with forgiveness.
      Or something like that.
      OUT

      Reply
  44. Jeremy

     /  October 30, 2015

    Sorry Spike.
    Didn’t see your post.

    Reply
  45. Climate change is doing some very strange things to the waters off New England

    “That warmth is implicated, in this latest study, for the dramatic decrease in Gulf of Maine cod populations, and it is likely also responsible for the northward retreat of cold water-loving sea life including the iconic Maine Lobsters. These unusually warm seas also contributed to the nor’Easters last winter that generated record snowfalls in New England. Those storms feed off warm seas both for their intensification, and for the amount of moisture that is available to produce snowfalls.” Prof. Michael Mann

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/10/29/climate-change-is-doing-some-strange-things-to-the-waters-off-new-england/

    Reply
  46. Colorado Bob

     /  October 31, 2015

    There were more than 40 high-water rescues in the area with about 13 inches (33 cm) of rain falling within a few hours in parts of the region south of the state capital of Austin, officials said.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/30/us-texas-tornado-idUSKCN0SO1O220151030

    Reply
    • Austin, TX received 14.53″ in 24 hrs. For comparison, Fresno[CA] received 14.74″ from Jan 06, 2013 to present. @NWSHanford.

      Reply
  47. Barbara Burnett

     /  October 31, 2015

    Reading Monbiot’s piece on the fires in Indonesia (as well as the Guardian’s article on the fires in the Amazon) made me want to “do something” to stop enabling the insanity. While I know that my response won’t register on the global change-o-meter at all, I emailed the company that makes the only kind of organic crackers that I can eat (due to allergies)–and told them that I would no longer buy them on ethical grounds since they recently switched to using palm oil. I added the link to Monbiot’s article on the fires in Indonesia, and said that I would only buy them again if they switched back to their original recipe. In the meantime I’m gonna bake my own. I’ll also check the ingredients on everything else I have and eliminate any more that contain palm oil.

    I’m disabled and retired, and I often get discouraged because I don’t have the money to live off grid, etc.. But I can still refuse to buy things that I know cause harm.

    Reply
    • It really make’s me want to take action too. Perhaps instead of pouring your energy into just focusing on what you buy and consume yourself (which actually has very limited effect) you could combine your efforts with a few friends and neighbors and lobby local schools, hospitals, restaurants etc to cut all palm oil form their supply chain, or lobby local and national politicians to create new legislation. This could raise awareness in others and the result of a few caring individuals could have a much larger effect🙂

      Reply
      • Maria

         /  October 31, 2015

        Before choosing palm oil as a focus, I would read up thread in the comments. There are a couple of posts that talk about how alternative vegetable oil sources(soybeans, etc) would require much more land to meet the worlds needs. As general consumers of varying physical and financial abilities, it’s a tough one–how to lower our footprint–live by our values– while living within our means. Where do we put our time and energy? I have not yet figured a cohesive general plan for myself…yet. Modifications here and there…yes.

        Reply
        • Well we have plenty of palm trees in California and the US Southeast. I don’t know why we can’t extract their fruit and extract palm oil from the seeds.

          But that won’t get Indonesia the bio-prepetroleum it needs to have the American standard of living it wants. :p

        • I think it’s an issue of not supporting the industries that are slashing and burning the peat lands. I also think that blanket attacks on palm oil without this distinction is likely to be counter productive.

        • Especially when you can grow palm trees in the neutral grounds of highways and city avenues and get the oil from them.

      • Barbara Burnett

         /  November 1, 2015

        Yep, that’s a great idea, but in my original post I didn’t list what other climate-related issues I’m already actively involved in. I’m working with 350.orgVT and Rising Tide VT to stop the pipeline that is being built to carry fracked gas from Canada to VT and to points beyond, as well to persuade the state employees pension board to divest from fossil fuels. I admit that I’ve been a bit under the weather after having colon cancer surgery in April (on top of having chronic fatigue for the past 30 years), but as there are groups already working on the larger issues regarding palm oil plantations, I feel that personally boycotting a product that now contains palm oil is a reasonable response to the current conflagration in Indonesia. I also find that, for me, taking time for meditation and earth-centered spirituality helps keep me grounded so I’m less likely to spiral down into deep depression caused by knowing too much.

        I firmly believe that it all adds up: each choice, each action (or non-action) whether in the public or private sphere. The changes in the way that each of us live must be so radical and so rapid that it will take all of our efforts as groups and as individuals to preserve the slimmest chance that the remaining inhabitants of our planet will not go extinct.

        Reply
      • Barbara, you’re doing a lot–under difficult health circumstances. I’m so sorry to hear of your colon cancer–wishing a complete and sustained remission for you. Indeed, each step adds up and we need each other’s support…hugs.

        Reply
  48. Colorado Bob

     /  October 31, 2015

    October to be the hottest on record – and global warming is likely to blame

    Barring a freak weather event, this month will set a new record for the average daily maximum temperature in October across Australia

    For the record not to be broken it would take something insanely unlikely – a large volcano erupting somewhere on Australia’s east coast, for example – pushing temperatures on Saturday below zero.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/october-to-be-the-hottest-on-record–and-global-warming-is-likely-to-blame-20151029-gklklt.html#ixzz3q72aOEcV

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  October 31, 2015

      “Likely to blame”. Gee, I guess it could be invisible aliens holding a giant hairdryer that is pointed at the earth. With headlines like that, it is no wonder that we have such a problem communicating the severity of our situation!

      Reply
  49. This El Nino will hit New Zealand in our summer months and cause drought and the possibility of a typhoon. http://www.climateoutcome.kiwi.nz/latest-posts–news/el-nino-drought

    Reply
    • It’s already here sadly – and actually the South Island east coast has been dry since about June 2014! This map – http://www.niwa.co.nz/static/climate/last30daysspi.png?1234 – would appear to have been massaged by govt. as it’s not that pretty on the ground. Most of East coast is terribly dry, and even in eastern Southland a client’s farm is dry enough to depress grass growth – bad news coupled with typical cold ElNino westerlies.

      Reply
  50. redskylite

     /  October 31, 2015

    After the NASA’s “TIMID” mission news yesterday, further information released on NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission.

    Patterns are emerging and observations building. Critical job NASA, hope you can stay politician free.
    “We can already clearly see patterns of seasonal change and variations in carbon dioxide around the globe,” said Annmarie Eldering, OCO-2 deputy project scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. “Far more subtle features are expected to emerge over time.”

    http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2358/

    Reply
  51. PlazaRed

     /  October 31, 2015

    Hottest November on record says report from UK.
    A report from the UK says they are expecting very warm weather during November.
    Temps up to 21.7/C forecast for Sunday
    Here’s the link.

    http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/uk-weather-hottest-ever-november-on-way-as-halloween-heatwave-to-be-followed-by-217c-sunday/ar-BBmDKjb?li=AAaeUIW

    Meanwhile the spring tides are getting over the harbour walls in some parts of the southern UK.
    “Coastal towns and villages across Cornwall found themselves under water as spring tides overtopped harbour walls.”

    All just a few more drops in the oceans, or rather a few more cubic kilometres.

    Reply
  52. Abel Adamski

     /  October 31, 2015

    A little aside, The Antarctic Ozone hole, whilst others such as the ABC also have covered it “Ozone hole over Antarctica expands to near-record levels, now four times size of Australia”

    They have a good article EXCEPT in relation to the atmospherics “Scientists from the UN said the increase was due to colder-than-usual temperatures, rather than any extra damage being done to the Earth’s protective layer.”

    Still a good article worth reading.
    However the good old hype rag does include a further snippet.
    “instead, the hole expanded due to unusually cold climate in the upper stratosphere.”
    Read more at http://www.inquisitr.com/2531112/antarctic-ozone-hole-expands-though-it-appears-to-be-bad-the-situation-is-actually-improving/#IW3jGxwLqkX2AkXV.99

    Precisely as modelled and what is to be expected with AGW , colder upper stratosphere

    Reply
  53. Abel Adamski

     /  October 31, 2015

    And one that has always been guaranteed to be a human feedback
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/27/magazine/what-do-chinese-dumplings-have-to-do-with-global-warming.html?_r=0

    Frozen foods, transport, storage , production and logistics.

    See next comment for current perspective

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  October 31, 2015

      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-30/biggest-climate-threat-you-never-heard-of-is-stronger-than-co2

      “The biggest global warming battle you’ve never heard of kicks off in Dubai this weekend.

      Climate negotiators from across the globe will gather in the Persian Gulf city to debate how to get rid of hydrofluorocarbons — a class of hundreds of artificial chemicals used in refrigerators, air-conditioners, fire suppressants and other widely used products. While less common than greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide or methane, HFCs can be thousands of times more potent, pound for pound, at heating up the planet.”

      “They’re also gaining in popularity as demand for air conditioning, refrigeration and other services is expected to soar in developing countries in coming decades. The result: HFCs are now the world’s fastest growing greenhouse gases and projected to rise even more in the future.”

      “A global deal is proving elusive, however. Poorer countries and those in warmer climates have concerns about the reliability and expense of substitutes, which can cost ten times as much as the climate-threatening chemicals they replace. Advocates fear a new ban may boost the black market for HFCs. Chemical makers including Chemours Co. have found a significant amount of the refrigerants in use in some regions are labeled as the newer, safer products, but are actually older, cheaper products harmful to the environment.

      “The chemical industry is producing literally hundreds of different kinds of HFC blends,” said Clare Perry, a senior campaigner for the Environmental Investigations Agency, a nonprofit that tracks environmental crime. “The scope for illegal trade is just enormous.”

      Reply
  54. Colorado Bob

     /  October 31, 2015

    Reply
  55. Colorado Bob

     /  October 31, 2015

    Ethiopia Experiencing ‘Worst Drought in 30 Years’ Due to El Niño Conditions – UN Report

    Link

    Reply
  56. Colorado Bob

     /  October 31, 2015

    Malawi’s Hydropower Dries Up As River Runs Low, Menacing Forests

    Lilongwe — Dwindling water levels are hobbling Malawi’s hydroelectric power supply and putting more pressure on the country’s already stressed forests, officials say.

    The Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM), a public utility, says the amount of power it generates through three plants on the Shire River has fallen by 66 percent due to Lake Malawi’s declining water level, which experts blame on erratic rains made worse by climate change.

    Link

    Reply
  57. Colorado Bob

     /  October 31, 2015

    Austin, Texas yesterday –

    ALL-TIME 24 HR RAIN RECORD SMASHED AT ABIA: 14.54” today. Previous record: 8.70” on 11/23/1974.

    WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD AT ABIA: 22.08″ this month. Previous record: 15.59 in June, 1981.

    http://kxan.com/blog/2015/10/30/airport-rainfall-smashes-record-causing-historic-flooding/

    Reply
  58. Andy in SD

     /  October 31, 2015

    Climate Deception Dossiers

    If you are interested in who knew what and when (ie: Exxon), this is a good read.

    http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/07/The-Climate-Deception-Dossiers.pdf

    Reply

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