The Frankentides are Coming — US East Coast to See Season of Flooding From El Nino + Sea Level Rise This Winter

According to preliminary reports from NOAA, this Fall, Winter and Spring will likely bring an abnormal number of flooding tides to the US East Coast. These emperor and king tides are primarily driven by sea level rise — a knock on impact of human-forced warming. But during an El Nino year, as with this year, wind patterns along the East Coast tend to drive tides even higher. At El Nino times, lows tend to form off the US East Coast. These lows tend to generate a consistent northeasterly wind that pushes against the northward flow of the Gulf Stream. This action reduces the Gulf Stream’s ability to pull water away from our shores, and some of that water rebounds against the US East Coast.

During a normal year, this would somewhat increase the height of East Coast tides. But, due to Greenland melt pumping fresh water into the North Atlantic, the heat and salt driven circulation that generates the Gulf Stream is weakening (See Signs of Gulf Stream Weakening). So this year’s series of El Nino lows are forming over seas that are already rebounding against the US East Coast. Forming in seas that have already risen due to the melting of glaciers around the world. A NOAA press release from September notes that recent findings:

“…build upon two nuisance flooding reports issued last year led by NOAA scientists William Sweet and John Marra. The previously published reports show coastal communities in the United States have experienced a rapid growth in the frequency of nuisance tidal flooding, a 300 to 925 percent increase since the 1960s, and will likely cross inundation tipping points in the coming decades as tides become higher with sea level rise”

“We know that nuisance flooding is happening more often because of rising sea levels, but it is important to recognize that weather and ocean patterns brought on by El Niño can compound this trend,” said Sweet.”

image

(The 2015 El Nino — the year sea level rise came home to roost for the US East Coast. NOAA predicts a significant increase in the number of tidal flooding events all up and down the East Coast due to a combination of El Nino and impacts related to human-forced climate change. Image source: NOAA.)

It is due to this confluence of factors that we are likely to see some pretty extreme flooding tides anywhere from Miami to Maine. Flooding tides that, according to NOAA, are 33 to 125 percent more frequent than even the recently elevated trend. Tides that, as we have already seen (see below) are much higher than during any typical year — El Nino or no. Such impacts are likely to occur even without the influence of strong Nor’easters. But for the East Coast, Nor’easters and El Nino tend to go hand in hand.

So it’s shaping up to be a flooding season. One that wouldn’t have happened before. One brought on by the impacts of a human-forced warming. And one that is but a harbinger of more flooding to come.

Fall of 2015 Already Seeing Substantial Inundation Events

Over the past few weeks, a freak series of high tides inundated large sections of the U.S. East Coast. In Charleston, South Carolina, on October 27, a high tide peaked at 8.67 feet above mean low water. That’s the highest tide for Charleston since Hurricane Hugo roared ashore in 1989. But in this case, there was no category 4 hurricane. Just a ridiculous amount of water flooding in from the ocean. In Savannah, Georgia tides ran 10.43 feet above mean low water on the same day. Again, no storm, just a rising ocean flooding out roadways and inundating homes and neighborhoods. Only a couple of days later, on October 29th, large sections of Boston Harbor flooded under perfectly blue skies.

Tybee Flood

(Flooding, primarily due to sea level rise and an extreme high tide, inundates coastal lands near Tybee, Georgia on October 27th. It was the worst flooding since a category 2 hurricane hit the region in 1935. This year, there was no hurricane. Just sea level rise caused by human forced warming combined with the typical impacts of El Nino on East Coast tides. Image source: Blame Sea Level Rise.)

For stormless days, this level of tidal flooding is unprecedented. It’s a validation, just one month later, of NOAA predictions. If anything, these tides were even higher than expected. Tides influenced by sea level rise, glacial melt in Greenland, and by an El Nino driven shift in wind patterns. Had these tides coincided with a strong Nor’easter or a Hurricane, what we’d be looking at is a level of flooding that would almost certainly have exceeded the worst such events ever to strike the US East Coast. In effect, what we see is that sea level rise due to human forced warming of the globe is starting to have a greater and greater impact on these shores. An awful and early impact that will only worsen as time and human warming progress.

A Global Problem Set Off By Human Warming

Over the longer term, there are a lot of people in the path of this global trend of rising waters. In the US alone, more than 143 million people live in coastal communities. And the seas, due to human-forced warming are on the rise.

But its not just the US East Coast that’s in trouble. Practically everywhere, seas are rising. Global temperature increases of about 1 degrees Celsius above 1880s values are causing the oceans to thermally expand. In addition, glacial melt from mountain systems, Greenland and Antarctica is contributing ever-increasing volumes of water to the global ocean, forcing on the waters’ rise at ever-increasing rates. Currently, long term trends indicate a 3.3 millimeter per year average increase in the height of the world’s oceans (from 1993 to present). And as the world starts to close in on 2 degrees Celsius above 1880s averages, the pace of that rise is expected to ramp up and up.

Already, current sea level rise presents increasing problems to coastal regions across the globe. Much of the impacts we presently see are due to salt water invasion of low lying regions, nuisance flooding events, the amplification of storm driven tides, and increasing instances of what are now called king and emperor tides. Adding complexity to this global warming related problem is the fact that seas do not rise in a uniform manner. This lack of global uniformity of sea level rise results from gravity’s affects on the displacement of waters and from the influence of water outflows from glaciers on ocean currents. As a result, global sea level rise can generate hot spots where rates of rise are significantly in excess of the global average.

US East Coast as Sea Level Rise Hot Spot

Global Sea Surface Height Anomaly NOAA

(Over the past few months, a bulge of water more than 1.3 feet higher than the 1981 to 2013 global average has expanded off the US East Coast. This bulge is driven by a combination of Gulf Stream slowdown due to Greenland melt, overall sea level rise due to global warming, and due to an El Nino pattern that drives northeasterly winds off the US East Coast. This year, this extreme bulge is expected to bring on a significant increase in the number of flooding tides. Tides that could be compounded by the effects of strong nor’easters that tend to be generated during El Nino years. Image source: NOAA CPC.)

Unfortunately, as we have seen above, the impacts of gravity rebound and current changes related to glacial melt put the East Coast of the United States directly in the path of a significant rise in ocean water. Specifically, Greenland melt results in a slowing down of the Gulf Stream. And it is the northward draw of the Gulf Stream that pulls about 3 feet worth of sea level rise away from the US East Coast. Slow down the Gulf Stream by dumping cold water into the North Atlantic and you can get about a foot of sea level increase off the US East Coast. Stop it completely and all that 3 feet of water comes sloshing back. Add any global sea level rise due to ocean warming and glacial melt on top of that and you can see why the US East Coast can quickly get into trouble.

All in all, scientists expect sea level rise for the US East Coast to be nearly double the global average predicted for this Century. And what this means is that more and more coastal flooding is on the way.

Links:

The State Did Warn Us

Can’t Get Home? Blame Sea Level Rise

NOAA: El Nino May Accelerate Nuisance Flooding

Melting Ice in West Antarctica Could Raise Seas by 3 Meters

Historic Tides From Sea Level Rise and Supermoon Flood US East Coast

NOAA CPC

Hat Tip to Greg

Hat Tip to Colorado Bob

Hat Tip to DT Lange

Leave a comment

245 Comments

  1. Thank you for this informative post. I have lived in S. Florida for 50 years and despite all it’s problems…like over development, and ignorant politicians…I love my home. But as I stare down at retirement that is coming closer everyday, I wonder if it is wise to stay. Any “old timer” Floridian, like me, is very aware of our precarious situation when it comes to fresh water availability due to our limestone base and SLR. There are days when I think I should “get out while the getting is good”.

    Reply
    • Yeah. It’s pretty sad actually. I grew up in the coastal community that is Virginia Beach. More and more I think of my childhood as about as idyllic as a childhood can get. And my college years were spent in St. Augustine. Another great place to live. My memories of those days and places are about as fond as fond can be. But my advice to friends and family who live there or who want to stay is to rent — not own — property. That way you’re not locked in to a situation where you can’t leave if the water goes bad due to salt invasion, if the infrastructure is wrecked by storm and tidal flooding, or if the section you’re living in is just simply abandoned to the rising waters. It’s an ever more precarious investment to own homes in these communities. So sad because they are all often so vital. And the storms we could see down the pipe just a little ways aren’t very pretty at all.

      Reply
  2. – “nuisance flooding”… what an odd term…
    – President Obama and his Cabinet nixed the Keystone XL pipeline.
    J Trudeau of Canada expressed ‘some’ disappointment (jobs) but goes along with it wholeheartedly.

    Reply
    • islandraider

       /  November 6, 2015

      Question from the previous thread:

      If TPP (which Obama supports) is approved, could TransCanada sue the US under the provisions of the TPP to force the US to accept the Keystone XL pipeline (which Obama just rejected 4 days after TransCanada suspended its permit request) and allow/force its construction on the lands of private citizens in the US?

      Serious question in a very confusing world.

      Reply
      • – One point is that TPP is not signed, or in force, at this time.
        Not likely retro-enforced.
        So it seems…

        Reply
  3. NASA spots another Arabian Sea tropical cyclone forming
    November 5, 2015

    On November 5, 2015 at 1500 UTC (10 a.m. EST), Tropical Cyclone 05A was located near 13.9 degrees north latitude and 63.9 degrees east longitude, about 546 nautical miles (628.7 miles/ 1,012 km) east of Socotra Island, Yemen. Tropical Cyclone 05A is moving to the west at 10 knots (11.5 mph/18.5 kph). It is a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 35 knots (40 mph/64.8 kph).

    The tropical storm is expected to track over the island of Socotra on Nov. 8 with tropical storm force winds while heading west.

    The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) predicts that 05A will head toward Cape Gardafui, Somalia, move into the Gulf of Aden and make landfall in southeastern Yemen north of Aden, Yemen on Nov. 10.
    http://phys.org/news/2015-11-nasa-arabian-sea-tropical-cyclone.html

    Reply
    • – “NASA’s Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM core satellite caught another tropical cyclone forming on Nov. 4, 2015 at 1255 UTC (7:55 a.m. EST) in the Arabian Sea.”

      – NASA/JAXA’s GPM satellite measured scattered light to moderate rainfall in Tropical Cyclone 05A on Nov. 4, falling at a maximum rate of only 23.3 mm (.92 inches) per hour. Credit: NASA/JAXA/SSAI, Hal Pierce

      Reply
    • Wharf Rat

       /  November 8, 2015

      The storms of Jim Hansen’s grandchildren http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Storms/
      be here now.

      Déjà Vu: Category 3 Megh Slams Yemen Island; Bahamas Disturbance 94L May Develop

      By: Jeff Masters , 5:57 PM GMT on November 08, 2015

      Tropical Cyclone Megh powered ashore over Yemen’s Socotra Island on Sunday morning as a major Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Megh could well have been a Category 4 storm at landfall, since satellite estimates of small storms like Megh are subject to large errors. Megh’s passage over the island has disrupted the storm some, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated the storm’s peak winds at 115 mph at 7 am EST Sunday. Interaction with land, entrainment of dry air from the nearby deserts, and encounters with cooler patches of water upwelled last week by the passage of Tropical Cylcone Chapala should continue to weaken Megh. By the time it reaches the south Yemen coast between Mukalla and Aden sometime on Tuesday, Megh will likely be at tropical storm strength.

      Twin major hurricanes in the Arabian Sea: unprecedented in the historical record
      Megh is the second major Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclone to affect Yemen this month. Just a week ago, Tropical Cyclone Chapala took advantage of the the warmest waters ever recorded in the Arabian Sea at this time of year to intensify into a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds (1-minute average). This made Chapala the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea, behind Category 5 Cylcone Gonu of 2007, the only Category 5 storm ever recorded in the Arabian Sea (Gonu peaked at 165 mph winds). Chapala went on to devastate Yemen’s Socotra Island and mainland Yemen near the port city of Mukalla on November 3, killing at least eight people and causing widespread destructive flooding. According to NOAA’s Historical Hurricanes tool, prior to this year, there had only been five major Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclones recorded in the Arabian Sea since accurate satellite records began in 1990, and an additional Category 3 storm that occurred in 1977. Thus, two major hurricanes in one month in the Arabian Sea is a remarkable occurrence.

      http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/dj-vu-category-3-megh-slams-yemen-island-bahamas-disturbance-94l

      Reply
      • wili

         /  November 9, 2015

        Thanks for posting this. “Twin major hurricanes in the Arabian Sea: unprecedented in the historical record”

        “Unprecedented” is becoming a more and more common word in the climate news, these days!

        Reply
      • Ryan in New England

         /  November 9, 2015

        Sorry Wharf Rat, I posted this same link below, before I saw that you had already posted it. My bad.

        Reply
  4. Spike

     /  November 6, 2015

    We had some tidal flooding even in the UK, well away from the hot spots last month. I knew east coast USA was a problem but didn’t realise it was 2 x average SLR.

    Another factor which I saw Richard Alley refer to was reduced gravitational pull from the GIS. Quite mind boggling to think we havte unleashed such titanic forces

    http://sealevelstudy.org/sea-change-science/whats-in-a-number/attractive-ice-sheets

    Reply
    • James Burton

       /  November 12, 2015

      I thought reduced gravitational pull from the Greenland Ice sheets would result in a drop in sea level in the north, due to relaxation of the oceans bulge that gravity pulls north towards the Greenland ice sheet. Lots of places in the north like the UK would experience varying degrees of sea level fall. But the other forces would mitigate some of this, thermal expansion and increased volume of the seas from Glacial melting. A weird effect, one that I was unaware of till reading about it on this blog, via a posters link some time ago.

      Reply
      • Net sea level change from all melt and warming — Greenland + Antarctica + other glaciers + thermal expansion of waters is still a rise. You really can’t view melt in isolation, because melt is happening pretty much around the globe.

        Reply
  5. dnem

     /  November 6, 2015

    Robert- Pretty sure the tide at Savannah, GA was 10.43 feet above some datum (MLLW?) not 10.43 feet “above normal” as you report.

    Reply
  6. – OK! I’ve alluded to this before.

    “Exxon Mobil is not alone,” said Stephen Zamora, a professor at the University of Houston Law Center. “This is not likely to be an isolated matter.”

    NYT – NOV. 6, 2015

    ‘More Oil Companies Could Join Exxon Mobil as Focus of Climate Investigations’

    HOUSTON — The opening of an investigation of Exxon Mobil by the New York attorney general’s office into the company’s record on climate change may well spur legal inquiries into other oil companies, according to legal and climate experts, although successful prosecutions are far from assured.
    Stories from Our Advertisers

    Many oil companies have funded lobbying efforts and research on climate change, so prosecutors would most likely be able to search through vast amounts of material. The industry has also resisted pressure for years from environmental groups to warn investors of the risks that stricter limits on carbon emissions could have on their businesses, although that appears to be changing.

    “Exxon Mobil is not alone,” said Stephen Zamora, a professor at the University of Houston Law Center. “This is not likely to be an isolated matter.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/07/science/more-oil-companies-could-join-exxon-mobil-as-focus-of-climate-investigations.html

    Reply
  7. – Florida SLR:

    Florida GOP Politician Warns Sea-Level Rise Is “Speculation or Personal Opinion”

    Sea-level rise shouldn’t be a controversial subject in a state subcommittee tasked with talking about Everglades restoration and water management. That’s exactly why two state representatives from South Florida began asking a Tallahassee bureaucrat earlier this week about climate change’s impact on the state’s projects.

    But this is Florida, where the GOP is still living in a fantasy land where Miami Beach isn’t sinking into the Atlantic. So the meeting’s chairman — a Republican businessman from central Florida — quickly interjected to warn that sea level rise was simply “speculation or personal opinion.”
    http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/florida-gop-politician-warns-sea-level-rise-is-speculation-or-personal-opinion-8029737

    Reply
    • John Kerry to speak on sea level rise Tuesday at ODU [VA]

      NORFOLK
      Secretary of State John Kerry will speak on climate change and national security Tuesday at Old Dominion University.

      While he’s at ODU, Kerry will tour the Center for Sea Level Rise, talk with faculty and staff and learn about the Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise Preparedness and Resilience Intergovernmental Planning Pilot Project, the first of its kind, according to an email from the university and an announcement from his office carried on CSPAN.
      http://hamptonroads.com/2015/11/john-kerry-speak-sea-level-rise-tuesday-odu

      Reply
    • New report: Outlook grimmer on South Florida sea levels

      The Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact, consisting of Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties, calculated that seas could rise 31 inches by 2060, about two inches more than was estimated five years ago. It predicted seas up to 46 inches higher by 2075, enough to submerge a large chunk of coastline.

      Even if seas rise three to five inches, which is expected within the next 15 years, South Florida would face a range of hardships, from endangered drinking water supplies to a degradation of public services.
      http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/fl-new-sea-rise-projections-20151108-story.html

      Reply
  8. – Union of Concerned Scientists:

    Why The Investigation Of ExxonMobil Matters

    That is what seems be to happening right now with a simple, but powerful idea: that, for decades, the world’s largest fossil fuel companies knew all about the harm their products posed to the planet, yet many chose to deceive the public about climate science and block meaningful reform. Now that this information has been so forcefully brought out, momentum is building fast to hold these companies accountable.
    http://blog.ucsusa.org/ken-kimmell/why-the-investigation-of-exxonmobil-matters-949#.Vj0djqUNXQQ.twitter

    Reply
  9. – NYT 1988

    Reply
  10. Spike

     /  November 6, 2015

    Hi Robert have I been blocked from the site. My apologies if I have caused offence to anyone but perhaps you can let me know

    Reply
    • Spike … No. I have no idea why you’ve been blocked. I’ll see if I can find out what’s going on. But it’s due to no action on my end.

      I’ve found your additions to be remarkably helpful and always enjoy reading your comments. So I honestly don’t understand what happened here.

      Reply
  11. Speaking of tides, I remember going up to Boston late last year to see my mum (via plane – someone else bought the ticket so I had no choice), and as we were coming in to the airport the water was really high — unusually so from what I remember.

    Reply
  12. Abrupt Climate Change 2015 information * Scientists * Guy McPherson * Paul Beckwith etc

    Published on Nov 6, 2015

    Biggest story ever for Humanity.A must see for any caring person on the Planet.The climate is spinning out of control.Information from Professor Guy McPherson,Climatologist Paul Beckwith ,Methane Scientist Natalia Shackhova, NASA Scientist Eric Rignot,Scientist David Wasdell , ,Sam Carana ,Malcolm Light , Jennifer Hynes…..

    Reply
    • I’ll put it on my To Watch list, although with Guy “Near Term Extinction” McPherson as the lead *scientist*, I should take it with a carload of salt.

      Reply
      • – I think you may be rushing a bit here Ed-M ,,,,”Climatologist Paul Beckwith ,Methane Scientist Natalia Shackhova, et al.”
        The video is quite sobering though.
        You might give it a chance.
        OUT

        Reply
  13. Mblanc

     /  November 7, 2015

    Time to channel my inner Bob!

    Dear Miami – Roisin Murphy

    PS this not an official video, despite the title.

    Reply
  14. Colorado Bob

     /  November 7, 2015

    Low Pressure ‘Beast’ Near the Aleutian Islands Produces Incredible Satellite Images

    A powerful storm swirled through the Aleutian Islands of Alaska this week, providing incredible satellite images and producing wind gusts near hurricane force.

    This beast of a storm is actually a strong non-tropical area of low pressure. It reached its peak strength on Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, bringing giant waves and high winds to the area.

    This region is no stranger to powerful low-pressure systems. In fact, it was in early November of last year that the Bering Sea Superstorm impacted the region. The Bering Sea Superstorm was one of the strongest extratropical cyclones on record in the North Pacific.

    http://www.wunderground.com/news/aleutian-storm-incredible-satellite-images

    Reply
    • ‘ … when it passed over Atka Island, where the airport recorded barometric pressure of 28.32 inches of mercury around midday Wednesday while winds quickly switched from southerly to westerly. That’s equal to 958.9 millibars.’

      Reply
  15. Colorado Bob

     /  November 7, 2015

    Norfolk, pushed by sea-level rise, re-thinking the future of the city
    NORFOLK

    Norfolk has earned a dreary distinction of late. It’s become one of the top destinations around the world for journalists seeking a poster-child city for the perils of sea level rise.

    But city leaders Wednesday verged on embracing that notoriety with the unveiling of a strategy to tackle the problem harder.

    One goal of the plan: Build an entire new industry around engineers and other experts who figure out ways to adapt to rising seas right here and then export that expertise worldwide.

    That idea is among a slew of initiatives outlined in what’s being called Norfolk’s “resilience strategy.” The 60-page document was published Wednesday on the city’s website and outlined at the Slover Library downtown at an event that drew some 100 business and community leaders and city officials.

    http://hamptonroads.com/2015/10/norfolk-pushed-sealevel-rise-rethinking-future-city

    Reply
  16. Andy in SD

     /  November 7, 2015

    More Than Half of Entire Species of Saigas Gone in Mysterious Die-Off
    ========================================================

    “Other studies of grazing animals suggest that the stress caused by sudden climate changes can weaken animals, enabling Pasteurella and other bacteria to overcome the defenses of their hosts.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/03/science/more-than-half-entire-species-of-saigas-gone-in-mysterious-die-off.html

    Reply
    • – Yes, I would expect more of this sort of thing as conditions change.
      “… may have transformed harmless bacteria carried by the antelopes… into lethal pathogens.”
      “Climate change has raised the average May temperature several degrees across the saigas’ range.”

      – We could more of this.
      Which is why I previously brought up possible mimicry by pathogens, or other micro organisms, taking up the characteristics one more benign.
      This, while conditions are in a bit of turmoil during rapid change in any dynamic growth medium.
      What used to take place over centuries now happen almost before our eyes.
      Who knows…
      OUT

      Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  November 9, 2015

      I just got around to reading the story about the saigas. Such a tragic situation. My heart breaks a little more each time I read about another innocent species that is going extinct or on the brink of extinction. Our situation is becoming more desperate, and hopeless, as each day passes. I don’t know how much more of this I can handle. The scope and scale is starting to overwhelm me, and I’m having frequent panic attacks when I try and wrap my head around it. The finality of it all, and the fact that we are throwing away tens of millions of years of evolution, I feel like I can’t breathe…

      Reply
  17. Andy in SD

     /  November 7, 2015

    Inverse correlation between salmon populations and ocean temperature.

    This has been tracked in B.C. since the 1940’s

    http://www.npafc.org/new/publications/Special%20Publications/LRMP_Synthesis.pdf

    Reply
    • – It’s layman, or reader, friendly:

      ‘This is a summary of the published studies of the effects of climate and climate change on Pacific salmon. The
      summary reports the results of the research in a way that is readable for the general public. Consequently, the standard
      approach of referencing the various statements to appropriate papers is omitted. Instead, we produced an annotated
      bibliography of approximately 350 papers that is available from the North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission (www.npafc.org).’

      Reply
  18. Abel Adamski

     /  November 7, 2015

    A god series
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/how-did-climate-change-influence-australias-weather-in-2014-20151030-gkmww3.html

    “Scientists have linked climate change to several extreme weather events that hit Australia last year, including city melting heatwaves, record hot spring temperatures and the sweltering conditions that greeted the G20 meeting in Brisbane.

    They are part of a series of new studies – published in a special edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – examining the emerging scientific area of extreme weather “attribution”

    It explores the causes of disasters and unusual events across the globe in 2014, including six in Australia.

    Of 79 attribution papers published in the journal over the past four years, more than half found human-caused climate change had substantially influenced either an event’s frequency or intensity, or both. Other studies found no link, or were uncertain.

    Dr Andrew King, from the Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, said attribution was a new area of science.

    “Now we can say the likelihood of the hot days in Brisbane or Adelaide, or the hot springs across Australia, are being increased significantly and substantially by climate change,” Dr King, the co-author of the study into the Brisbane G20 meeting temperatures, said.

    The results are largely drawn from computer modelling techniques comparing current climate conditions to pre-industrial times. They are then expressed as probabilities – a reflection that the climate system is influenced by natural and human factors, and that it is a developing area of scientific examination.

    But the journal says recent scientific developments suggest that “event attribution that detects the effects of long-term changes on extreme events is possible”.

    Here is a brief summary of the Australian findings.

    Reply
    • OK, then. It’s good to see that a growing number of scientists are starting to think outside the ‘non-attribution’ box on this one.

      Reply
  19. Colorado Bob

     /  November 7, 2015

    Exxon, Keystone, and the Turn Against Fossil Fuels

    The fossil-fuel industry—which, for two centuries, underwrote our civilization and then became its greatest threat—has started to take serious hits. At noon today, President Obama rejected the Keystone Pipeline, becoming the first world leader to turn down a major project on climate grounds. Eighteen hours earlier, New York’s Attorney General Eric Schneiderman announced that he’d issued subpoenas to Exxon, the richest and most profitable energy company in history, after substantial evidence emerged that it had deceived the world about climate change.

    These moves don’t come out of the blue. They result from three things.

    By Bill McKibben

    Reply
  20. – WaPo 1106

    Map: Where climate change is a big deal (and where it isn’t)

    “Majorities in all 40 nations polled say it is a serious problem, and a global median of 54% consider it a very serious problem,” Pew finds.
    … citizens of countries with high per-capital levels of carbon emissions — the United States ranking at the top of that list — are “less intensely concerned about climate change.” Americans and Chinese, whose nations are the world’s biggest emitters, were surprisingly less concerned than others.

    That’s in contrast to publics in Africa, Latin America and Asia, where the real effects of climate change are more keenly felt.

    Reply
  21. – Climate Central – 1105 – Heat

    ‘Extreme Heat Is Defining Climate Change’

    The lasting legacy of climate change will be heat. The land, the oceans, all of it. It’s the tie that binds and while the global average temperature is the defining metric, the increasing incidence of heat waves and longer lasting extreme heat is how the world will experience it.

    All eight papers dealing with extreme heat events in this year’s Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society’s attribution report show a clear climate change signal that made them more likely, more hot or both.
    https://www.climatecentral.org/news/extreme-heat-climate-change-19641?utm_content=bufferf3e3f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Reply
  22. ‘Former Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York City said this week that he would run millions of dollars in political television ads against four state attorneys general who are suing the Obama administration over regulations on power plant emissions.’
    – NYT 1107
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/07/us/politics/michael-bloomberg-state-attorneys-general-carbon-emissions.html?_r=0

    Reply
  23. The Age of Humans
    A New “Drought Atlas” Tracks Europe’s Extreme Weather Through History
    The data, based on tree rings, fills in details about past events…
    – November 6, 2015
    http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/new-drought-atlas-tracks-europes-extreme-weather-through-history-180957185/?no-ist

    Reply
  24. Colorado Bob

     /  November 7, 2015

    The State of Florida’s Sea Level Rise Plan involves issuing every citizen one of these :

    Reply
    • Syd Bridges

       /  November 7, 2015

      And maybe a teaspoon for bailing out if the broom fails.

      Reply
    • Mblanc

       /  November 9, 2015

      Dear Miami
      You’re the first to go
      Disappearing
      Under melting snow
      Each and everyone
      Turn your critical eye
      On the burning sun
      And try not to cry

      Reply
  25. Colorado Bob

     /  November 7, 2015

    Ocean acidification benefits invasive species

    Brian Mastroianni | CBS News | November 6, 2015

    The Carcinus maenas, or the European green crab, is one species that doesn’t mind the acidification of the world’s oceans. In fact, this invasive species is thriving here in the U.S.

    A new study published in Research and Reports in Biodiversity Studies finds that increased carbon levels due to warming water temperatures are benefitting some so-called “nuisance species” that threaten native populations. Highly resilient to acidification, they thrive in their changing adopted habitats, further outcompeting the organisms that naturally live in them.

    “We are witnessing the spread of marine life that cause problems — such as toxic jellyfish blooms and rotting algal mats,” study lead author Jason Hall-Spencer said in a press release.

    Link

    Reply
  26. ‘Anchovy numbers in decline, groups say’

    SANTA CRUZ >> For at least the past three years, humpback whales have been putting on a show in the Monterey Bay. Feasting and frisking, the 40-foot-long, 40-ton leviathans create in dizzying displays.

    Locals have never seen anything like it. But things have changed.

    “Since late September, the whale numbers have decreased, their behavior has changed and their food, anchovies, are less abundant,” said Nancy Black, marine biologist and owner of Monterey Bay Whale Watch. “We were seeing carpets just thick of anchovies for almost a mile. Now all we’re seeing is spots.”

    Whale watching tour companies and conservationists claim the anchovy population has “collapsed” due to environmental reasons…

    The Pacific Fishery Management Council will consider the anchovy’s status at its meeting next month.
    http://www.santacruzsentinel.com/20151029/anchovy-numbers-in-decline-groups-say

    Reply
    • “…Some scientists, however, are finding a drastic decline in the forage fish.”

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  November 7, 2015

        Perhaps Senator Snowball will eat some of these crab for the holiday’s to prove that ocean acidification is an “alarmist hoax”. Afterwards he can cleanse his palate with a nice sorbet made from box jelly fish.

        Reply
    • – Relevant to northern winds inhibited by a warming Arctic, etc.:

      “One factor could be a natural 50-year ocean cycle bringing unfavorable ocean conditions that affect spawning. It dictates the famously volatile anchovy and sardine stocks. Additionally, northern winds that normally sweep away ocean surface waters, pulling up cold, nutrient-rich water have slackened.”

      Reply
  27. Syd Bridges

     /  November 7, 2015

    Methinks it’s time for the Boys in Congress to ban sea level rise altogether as the Carolinas have so pioneeringly done. As for such anti-Republican things as King and Emperor tides, surely they were abolished by the Treaty of Paris in 1783. Personally, I think the Republicans should make up with Iran. After all, they are going to need bigger and bigger carpets to sweep all this global warming “hoax” under. And the carpets had better be water resistant too. As for CB’s suggestion that the sagacious Senator Snowball should eat box jellyfish sorbet, what have box jellyfish done to deserve such a cruel and unusual punishment as to be devoured by him?

    We have had a little snow here in northern Colorado, but the warmth is quickly melting it with temperatures in the 40s. Talking to my sister in England it is very warm there too. Obviously our fracking Prime Minister David “Call me Dave” Cameron can take credit for this. Of course, when the warm eastern seaboard, cold Atlantic Greenland meltwater storm generating system floods the country, that will be someone else’s fault. Probably mine.

    Reply
  28. James Burton

     /  November 7, 2015

    http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/10/e1500561.full#F2
    Old world droughts of the past, new research. Europe’s past droughts with some really great maps to download. Read parts about the UK, the whole looks worth a read if drought interests a person.

    Reply
  29. Colorado Bob

     /  November 7, 2015

    You know, I never dreamed how thinly balanced the oceans were I mean they have such mass .

    It would seem we done much more damage than we know.

    Reply
    • Andy in SD

       /  November 8, 2015

      My analogy is a super tanker (oddly enough). It take a great amount of energy and time to get it up to full speed. And once it is at full speed it take a great amount of time and energy to stop it (or make it turn). You can’t just slam on the brakes and expect it to stop, it will coast for miles and miles.

      We have spent the last few decades in the “speed up” phase where it appears that things are not really moving, however incredible inertia is being built up.

      Now we are at sea, getting up to full speed. We now have an idea of what full speed is.

      And by the time the realization hits the governments around the world as to what is occurring they will be looking to stop on a dime, and it just doesn’t happen. It will take time, and energy (effort) to slow it down.

      My end concern is it takes less effort to fight one another over what scraps are left, then to exert that effort to stop the super tanker of doom.

      Reply
  30. Ryan in New England

     /  November 8, 2015

    From Jeff Masters’ blog…

    The science of deciphering how much long-term climate change influences shorter-term weather and climate events continues to blossom. On Thursday, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) released its fourth annual special issue of the Bulletin of the AMS devoted to these attribution studies. Launched in 2012 as an experiment, the project hit a nerve: researchers and the public were both intensely interested in the connection between human-produced greenhouse gases and high-profile, high-impact weather. This year’s batch of studies, which focuses on events from 2014, is the largest yet: a total of 32, including more than 100 researchers from 20 countries looking at 28 extreme weather and climate events from all seven continents. New topics this year include tropical cyclones, forest fires, and anomalies in sea surface temperature and sea level pressure. For about half of the events studied in this year’s AMS report, scientists found that human-induced climate change played a measurable role in making the event stronger and/or more likely.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/climate-change-and-extreme-weather-32-takes-on-28-events-from-2014

    Reply
  31. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2015

    You know, I never dreamed how thinly balanced the oceans were I mean they have such mass .

    It would seem we done much more damage than we know.

    Reply
  32. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2015

    Reply
  33. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2015

    How tine has come,

    Reply
  34. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2015

    Being an old man really sinks. You have no idea. until it comes to you.

    Reply
  35. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2015

    There’;s the song from me to all of you

    Reply
  36. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2015

    I have this great idea, we are stuck in the 60’s.

    Reply
  37. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2015

    Reply
  38. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2015

    Reply
  39. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2015

    Sorry I missed.

    Reply
  40. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2015

    The only jack ass that still lives besides me. Jeff Beck. –

    Reply
  41. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2015

    Jeff Beck did this . in an age of hip-hop. They are not very bright,

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  November 8, 2015

      “Beck’s Bolero”

      This still kicks ass. No “Hip Hop Astist”: Eve came close.

      Reply
  42. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2015

    “Beck’s Bolero”

    Reply
  43. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2015

    I’m at the end of my world pay no attention to me.

    Reply
  44. Apneaman

     /  November 8, 2015

    L.A. leaders warn Angelenos to prepare for ‘Godzilla’ El Niño storms

    http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-eric-garcetti-el-nino-20151106-story.html

    Reply
    • “Mayor Eric Garcetti signed an executive directive to create an El Niño Task Force made up of 13 city departments that together will focus on short-term and long-term preparations. “

      Reply
  45. wili

     /  November 8, 2015

    Holy freakin’ crap. There’s another cyclone headed for Yemen, about to hit the offshore islands now. Soooo, not one singly cyclone for nearly 100 years (since 1922)…the TWO in ONE WEEK.

    If you don’t think has fundamentally shifted in global climatological patterns by now, you need to extract your head from the place where the sun don’t shine!

    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/rare-cyclone-bears-beleaguered-yemen-megh-socotra-weather-151107221838657.html

    Reply
  46. PlazaRed

     /  November 8, 2015

    The high tide inundating low lying farmland is going to put a lot of salt residue into the soil. This will have a bad adverse effect on plants and crops, As it will inhibit the ability of plants to take up water hence they die.
    I remember something historical about the Romans digging salt into the ground in Cartage in northern Africa to prevent farmland being used.

    Reply
  47. redskylite

     /  November 8, 2015

    “No one has to be afraid of sea level rise,” said Anders Levermann from “irreversible collapse” study. “One should be worried about sea level rise. It is not a threat to people, it’s a threat to things, and land, and cultural heritage.”

    Not so sure that those words ring true. It depends on exactly where you live. If you live on a Pacific atoll or in the Sundarbans, or in low lying Bangladesh then you should be afraid, very afraid. Who will welcome refugees on high ground ​?

    Bad choice of words Anders, from high ground in Germany ?

    http://www.techtimes.com/articles/102276/20151107/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-headed-for-irreversible-collapse-how-this-could-impact-global-populations.htm

    Reply
    • redskylite

       /  November 8, 2015

      Reply
      • PlazaRed

         /  November 8, 2015

        If things carry on the way they are going, its going to have to be renamed, “swimming over the dock of the bay!”

        Reply
    • wili

       /  November 8, 2015

      Yeah, people look at average rates over the decades, but they don’t realize that increased sea levels provides a higher platform for sea swells (and even king tides, as we see) to launch from. Add this to the essential certainty of more intense storms, and you have a recipe for very many very human disasters. Sandy is the poster child for this. But future storms will make that disaster look like a walk in the pre-GWed park!

      Reply
    • “One should be worried about sea level rise. It is not a threat to people, it’s a threat to things, and land, and cultural heritage.”

      Such an odd statement.

      Reply
  48. Spike

     /  November 8, 2015

    Interesting article here on the gravitational effects of ice sheet melt. “To put some numbers on this, if the Greenland ice sheet were to melt enough to raise average global sea levels by a meter, in Boston Harbor, which is relatively close to Greenland, sea levels would rise by only about 0.7 meters. Conversely, melting from the more distant Antarctic ice sheet would disproportionately affect Boston and other places in the northern hemisphere. This means every locale has its own problem ice sheets to keep an eye on.”

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/ideas/2015/10/08/the-very-weird-physics-sea-level-changes/K6463zgFi9WwUJWWKtHJVP/story.html

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  November 8, 2015

      Clever twist by the Globe. They skew the comments to imply that Greenland (the most threatened ice sheet due to arctic amplification) is of no concern to Bostonians. Total BS. I am not at all surprised by this approach by them. Their track record of coverage of the most important issue that Boston has ever faced, is pathetic.

      Reply
      • wili

         /  November 8, 2015

        The problem is that the other thing that GIS melt is already doing is backing up the AMOC which is pushing more water toward the East Coast already, as we see. It’s never just one thing.

        Reply
    • Spike

       /  November 8, 2015

      Agree the spin is awful and I think they have underestimated the distances involved as well. Plus it’s less than good news the lower down the US east coast you go. The equatorial regions of the world will presumably catch it from both poles being equidistant.

      Reply
      • The SE U.S. is among the worst. It gets Gulf Stream back up, the gravity bounce from Antarctic melt, the addition for Greenland melt, and the crustal rebound from Greenland melt. For Boston, the initial backing up of the Gulf Stream greatly accelerates the SLR rate regardless of Greenland’s gravity mitigating impact. Also, since W Antarctica melts concordantly with Greenland, that impact is also compounded near Boston. So those two impacts are basically a wash. Boston is in trouble. But the Southeast …

        Reply
      • Just found your post that got held up. It was a double link. Unfortunately, wordpress automatically filters posts with more than one. When I found it, I approved it. Please feel free to let me know if any other posts get held up. –R

        Reply
  49. Spike

     /  November 8, 2015

    Nice article on Californian drought drawing attention to Sloan’s work back in 2004

    http://www.decodedscience.org/role-global-warming-california-drought/56626

    Reply
  50. Syd Bridges

     /  November 8, 2015

    It appears that the same thing is happening over the other side of the Pond, despite “Call me Dave’s” bluster. Floods in September, October and now in today’s Torygraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/uknews/10548683/UK-weather-in-pictures-Britain-hit-by-high-tides-floods-and-strong-winds.html

    Don’t tell me them libruls are trying to enroll the Torygraph into the Global Warming Conspiracy. How low can they sink?

    Reply
    • Looks like we may have some of the worst of both worlds for this El Niño. A raging North Atlantic certainly seems to be one of the impacts lining up.

      Reply
  51. – 1108 – Daffodil Watch PNW PDX:
    The Feb. in Nov. daffodil buds are swelling. They should open any day now.
    Will post photos to ‘capture’ the event.
    OUT

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  November 9, 2015

      DT, our azaleas and ornamental pears blossoming in central Virginia while leaves nearly have fallen off all the trees in preparation for winter.

      Reply
  52. Colorado Bob

     /  November 8, 2015

    Study: Big North Slope tundra fire sparked long-term permafrost thaw

    The biggest wildfire to burn on treeless Arctic tundra triggered a dramatic permafrost thaw that unfolded over several years, new research finds.

    A study published in the Nature journal Scientific Reports examines the effects of the 2007 Anaktuvuk River fire, which burned about 400 square miles of land on the North Slope, more than all previous North Slope tundra fires combined.

    Long after the flames were extinguished on the surface, ice locked in the frozen earth below continued to melt, the study found, causing the land to slump and a pattern of angular ridges to emerge, said the study.

    http://www.adn.com/article/20151106/study-big-north-slope-tundra-fire-sparked-long-term-permafrost-thaw

    Reply
  53. Wharf Rat

     /  November 8, 2015

    Toxin in crab among impacts of warm sea that alarm scientists

    The poisoning of Dungeness crab off the California coast by a mysterious algae bloom may be bad news for the seafood industry, but to marine biologists and climate scientists, it is a frightening omen of future distress to a vibrant ecosystem.

    Experts say the toxin in the algae, which likely flourished in this year’s record-high ocean temperatures, is one symptom of a wholesale shift in the physical and biological makeup of the Pacific Ocean — a transformation so abrupt and merciless that it is endangering species and forcing migrations before our eyes.

    Tissue samples of Dungeness and rock crabs last week showed contamination by domoic acid, a neurotoxin known to cause seizures, coma and even death when consumed by animals or humans. The finding prompted California wildlife officials to delay the $60 million commercial crab season, which was supposed to start Nov. 15.

    The poisonous algae, multiplying since April, is now estimated to be 40 miles wide, in some places reaching down as far as two football fields, marine biologists say. It is the biggest and most toxic bloom researchers have ever seen.

    The primary culprit, the experts say, is consistently high ocean temperatures caused by climate aberrations that are being reinforced by a strengthening El Niño weather pattern in the tropics.

    http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Toxin-in-crab-among-impacts-of-warm-sea-that-6617583.php

    Reply
    • – The rapidity of the warming and its impacts are frightening. Like a runaway chain reaction.

      Reply
      • Maria

         /  November 9, 2015

        Indeed, DT–terrifying how the quickly the cascade of events is happening….

        Reply
  54. Wharf Rat

     /  November 8, 2015

    for Maria…

    Extreme Heat Is Defining Climate Change

    “The underlying processes that relate climate change to heat wave intensity and frequency are fairly straightforward to understand: if you increase the average temperature by even a modest amount, then it turns out that you dramatically increase the area under the extreme positive ‘tail’ of the distribution,” Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State who wasn’t involved in any of the new studies, said in an email.

    Put another way, it’s like having Steph Curry on your basketball team. He doesn’t always guarantee a win, but he sure as heck increases the odds of a victory.

    https://www.climatecentral.org/news/extreme-heat-climate-change-19641?utm_content=bufferf3e3f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Reply
    • Maria

       /  November 9, 2015

      Thanks Wharf. That chart is quite dramatic. Off the court(where we want him to stay hot;) perhaps we can get Curry do some public campaigning? As I write this, I’m realizing that celebrities outside of the cinema ealm are lacking?

      Reply
    • Maria

       /  November 9, 2015

      This has been said before–it’s so hard, unless you follow this closely, to wrap one’s mind around a 2C global elevation leading to extremes of weather that will kill people. That the MSM continues to nurse our ignorance is another crime against humanity…imo.

      Reply
    • Here’s the chart in your link, Wharf, that Mann is explaining. Striking.

      Reply
      • Wharf Rat

         /  November 9, 2015

        1.25 inches of rain since late Sat. night, and the Niners routed Atlanta, 17-16. It was a very good weekend.

        Reply
  55. Ryan in New England

     /  November 8, 2015

    An unbelievably rare event, happens for the second time! We’re running out of superlatives and adjectives to truly capture the level of change that we have brought about.

    Tropical Cyclone Megh powered ashore over Yemen’s Socotra Island on Sunday morning as a major Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Megh could well have been a Category 4 storm at landfall, since satellite estimates of small storms like Megh are subject to large errors. Megh’s passage over the island has disrupted the storm some, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated the storm’s peak winds at 115 mph at 7 am EST Sunday. Interaction with land, entrainment of dry air from the nearby deserts, and encounters with cooler patches of water upwelled last week by the passage of Tropical Cylcone Chapala should continue to weaken Megh. By the time it reaches the south Yemen coast between Mukalla and Aden sometime on Tuesday, Megh will likely be at tropical storm strength.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/dj-vu-category-3-megh-slams-yemen-island-bahamas-disturbance-94l

    Reply
  56. Ryan in New England

     /  November 8, 2015

    So this is the paragraph I intended to post…

    Twin major hurricanes in the Arabian Sea: unprecedented in the historical record
    Megh is the second major Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclone to affect Yemen this month. Just a week ago, Tropical Cyclone Chapala took advantage of the the warmest waters ever recorded in the Arabian Sea at this time of year to intensify into a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds (1-minute average). This made Chapala the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea, behind Category 5 Cylcone Gonu of 2007, the only Category 5 storm ever recorded in the Arabian Sea (Gonu peaked at 165 mph winds). Chapala went on to devastate Yemen’s Socotra Island and mainland Yemen near the port city of Mukalla on November 3, killing at least eight people and causing widespread destructive flooding. According to NOAA’s Historical Hurricanes tool, prior to this year, there had only been five major Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclones recorded in the Arabian Sea since accurate satellite records began in 1990, and an additional Category 3 storm that occurred in 1977. Thus, two major hurricanes in one month in the Arabian Sea is a remarkable occurrence.

    Reply
  57. NWS Utah tweet from November 07—The current temperature at SLC airport is 32°F, the first freeze of the fall. The average date of the first fall freeze is Oct. 19th.

    Reply
    • – Yes, that kind of data paints an accurate picture. It should be a backdrop of all media weather reports.

      Reply
  58. Abel Adamski

     /  November 9, 2015

    An interesting pick up from a comment in a Scientific American Article on EXXON

    PaulSuckow November 8, 2015, 12:01 PM

    For goodness sake, the entire global oil industry was notified of the global warming problem by invited speaker Dr. Edward Teller at the oil industry’s official 100th anniversary Energy and Man: a symposium held at Columbia University in 1959.

    Here’s a snippet containing Dr. Tellers information on global heating pp.56-58, and also see the followup question and answer on page 70, distributed under fair use (educational) at:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BziORi5jLFeuMGExM2FjZmEtNDJhNS00NzM4LTgwNDgtYTkyMjJkNmFkZDQz/view?usp=sharing

    Or read the symposium record for yourself, as I did, by visiting the nearest library with a copy of the book:

    Reply
    • Caroline

       /  November 9, 2015

      Thanks for this link, todaysguestis.
      From article:
      “Figures from January to September this year are already 1.02C above the average between 1850 and 1900.
      If temperatures remain as predicted, 2015 will be the first year to breach this key threshold.
      The world would then be half way towards 2C, the gateway to dangerous warming.”

      Haven’t we already crossed the gateway to “dangerous warming”?

      My concern is the continuation of media and even some scientists intimating that we still have time . . . that “dangerous warming” is in the distant future and nebulous.

      Given the weather catastrophes (fires, floods, hurricanes, dying trees,the blob, slowing of amoc, godzilla el nino, thawing permafrost, methane blow holes and on and on and on) I can’t imagine a 2 C increase! Isn’t it time to re-state the threshold of “dangerous warming?

      I’m assuming this article does not factor in global dimming and temp. increase?
      Given that global dimming has led to an underestimation of the power of global warming shouldn’t this always be part of the discussion?

      If global dimming is factored in what number would we be looking at today?

      Reply
      • Apneaman

         /  November 9, 2015

        If I held massive shares in an oil or coal company or any fossil fuel endeavor, 2100 would be my favorite number. I would give a fist pump every time I heard a scientist or reporter say it, because I know that humans DO NOT respond to long term threats. I know this from studying our history and everything I could get my hands on about human behaviour for the last 30 years. Apparently, no climate scientists have thought about walking across the campus to the psychology dept and asking for some tips.

        Reply
      • Dangerous warming should be 0.5 to 1.5 C. We’re in that now — a range that represents near peak warmth during any interglacial period over the last 2 million years. I’d call 1.5 to 2.5 C first level catastrophic warming — meaning enough to push ice sheet responses outside of anything seen during any interglacial period over the last 2 million years.

        Reply
  59. Syd Bridges

     /  November 9, 2015

    I see that NOAA’s weekly El Nino report for November 9 shows the Nino 3.4 region at 2.8 deg Centigrade. I think that this may be the first time this threshold has been reached. Senator Snowball has not been throwing sufficient snowballs into the Pacific. Slacker!

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

    Reply
    • islandraider

       /  November 9, 2015

      I respectfully suggest that ‘Senator Snowflake’ is a better moniker for the republican from Oklahoma.

      Reply
    • Correction to my previous statements — 2.8 is the highest weekly reading seen in the NOAA monitor during the 1997-1998 El Nino (not 2.7C). So, yeah, we’re in the range of strongest El Nino on record right now but we can’t say we’ve decisively beaten that event as of yet. This El Nino is definitely longer than 1997-1998 with a slower heat build and with much more overall warmth in the Pacific in general. Due to that inertia and due to so much heat remaining in place we may remain at peak anomaly values for a longer period. So far for this week, we are in a temperature range similar to those of the past 2 weeks.

      Australia’s BOM hasn’t yet matched 1997-1998 peak heat. The latest is 2.42 C for Nino 3.4 which is still a bit shy of their max reading at 2.7 C for that event.

      Reply
  60. Wharf Rat

     /  November 9, 2015

    New York AG Forces Coal Company To Settle In Global Warming Case

    10:28 AM 11/09/2015

    New York’s attorney general just forced the world’s largest publicly-traded coal company to tell investors how it believes global warming regulations will impact the viability of its business.

    http://dailycaller.com/2015/11/09/new-york-ag-forces-coal-company-to-settle-in-global-warming-case/#ixzz3r0iGpXXE

    Reply
  61. Colorado Bob

     /  November 9, 2015

    Rising sea levels from global warming set to displace 45 million people in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Tianjin if temperatures go up 4 degrees

    Rising sea levels will swallow up land if nothing is done to stop it, study by US-based group says
    http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/1877284/rising-sea-levels-global-warming-set-displace-45-million-people

    Reply
  62. Global temperatures are set to rise more than one degree above pre-industrial levels according to the UK’s Met Office.
    Figures from January to September this year are already 1.02C above the average between 1850 and 1900.
    If temperatures remain as predicted, 2015 will be the first year to breach this key threshold.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-34763036

    Reply
    • – “Incessant” – add that to our modern lexicon.

      Incessant Monsoon Shuts School, Brings Down Trees, Keeps Weather Overcast
      CHENNAI: The deep depression which was formed 180 km southeast of Chennai in the Bay of Bengal and has moved with a pace of 15 km from Sunday midnight to Monday noon causing everything from heavy inundation on roads, tree collapses and institutions to shut temporarily.

      A holiday was declared in educational institutions in many districts…

      As high as 136.5 mm rain lashed the capital on Sunday with the weather retaining an average of 24 degree celcius…
      http://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/chennai/Incessant-Monsoon-Shuts-School-Brings-Down-Trees-Keeps-Weather-Overcast/2015/11/09/article3121255.ece

      Reply
      • Wharf Rat

         /  November 9, 2015

        A depression forming over the Bay of Bengal, about 460 kilometres south east of Chennai, shows signs of developing into a strong cyclone by Monday evening (9 November 2015). Heavy rains and winds on Sunday (8 November) caused the collapse of a two storey building under construction in Chennai, killing two young men. Heavy rain and strong winds have been predicted for the next few days in the coastal areas of Tamil Nadu.

        Roads are flooded, trees have been uprooted and electricity supplies in some areas have been cut. The state Government has closed schools and colleges in Chennai, Kanchepuram and Tiruvallur districts on Monday (9 November 2015). The slum dwellers in Chennai and rural areas with thatched huts are the most severely affected by the heavy rains and wind. Many have been unable to work since Sunday and most depend on their daily wage for survival.

        2. Why is an ACT response needed?

        Due to the heavy rains and flooding the employment situation is rapidly deteriorating, prices of food are rising drastically and homes have already been damaged by the flood water. Many of the most vulnerable are living in unauthorised slums and in remote villages. The civil and municipal administration will not provide relief items to unauthorized slum dwellers, hence they need assistance through other means. ACT India members United Evangelical Church in India (UELCI) and Church’s Auxiliary for Social Action (CASA) are operational in the areas and have been involved in past relief and rehabilitation work and hence are known and trusted by the communities.

        http://www.trust.org/item/20151109125333-4fbop?view=print

        Reply
  63. – I think Pandora had more than one box of surprises. this is labeled “hydrogen sulfide”.

    Toxic Dust From a Dying California Lake

    The shrinking Salton Sea is now a major source of air pollution—and no one seems to know how to stop it from getting worse.

    On October 28, the smog-control agency for Los Angeles and the surrounding areas, the South Coast Air Quality Management District, issued an odor advisory for the intense rotten-egg stench that was permeating the air of southern California’s Coachella Valley. The source: The state’s largest lake, the 350-square-mile Salton Sea, was burping up hydrogen sulfide, a gas created by the decaying organic matter trapped beneath the water. It was the Salton Sea’s fifth odor advisory for October alone; depending on winds, the hydrogen sulfide can be smelled as far as 130 miles away in Los Angeles.

    …The Salton Sea is shrinking, a phenomenon due partially to rapid evaporation—summer temperatures around the lake routinely top 110…

    The problem is exacerbated by both California’s ongoing drought and the shallowness of the lake: “Because the Salton Sea is so flat and shallow a vertical foot of drop can expose thousands of feet of horizontal playa,”

    http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2015/11/the-airborne-toxic-lake-event/414888/

    Reply
  64. Colorado Bob

     /  November 9, 2015

    FOSSIL FUELS:
    How a 2012 book helped two teams of journalists probe Exxon’s changing view of climate risks

    Last week, ClimateWire spoke to Steve Coll, author of “Private Empire: ExxonMobil and American Power” and dean of the Columbia Journalism School, about his scrutiny of Exxon for the 2012 book and his later involvement with students at the school in the investigation of the company.

    About halfway through reporting for what became a 600-page tome on Exxon’s extraordinary economic and political clout, Coll realized that a credible account of the massive company’s history couldn’t omit its early discoveries of the climate threat and its later bid to question the science that supports it.

    http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060027682

    Reply
  65. -Still in California but re Sequoia trees and on air pollution.
    Awhile back there was a link about Sequoias stressed by climate change (which they are) but I added strongly that aerosol pollution was an ongoing cause.

    Here’s a photo/link about the Central Valley (bounded by tree lined mountains) and air pollution.

    The photo shows ‘smog’, a toxic gas cloud with toxic particulate but with the trees and mountains only as a backdrop. Keep in mind that rising hot air from the valley floor entrains pollutants which it carries aloft, and also engulfs Sequoias and all biota.
    Caption: Smog obscures the San Joaquin Valley below Sequoia National Park. Despite persistent air pollution in the valley, the head of the district’s Air Pollution Control testified against stronger regulations.

    Reply
  66. Griffin

     /  November 9, 2015

    Calibration adjustment note from Ralph Keeling. Upward, of course. Add .4 to all measurements since April.
    https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2015/11/09/measurement-note-an-adjustment-to-the-record/

    Reply
  67. Wharf Rat

     /  November 9, 2015

    “Let’s play 2”
    Ernie Banks

    Tropical Cyclone Megh headed towards a second landfall in Yemen
    Tropical Cyclone Megh is threading the needle down the narrow Gulf of Aden in the Arabian Sea, but is weakening due to interaction with land, entrainment of dry air from the nearby deserts, and encounters with cooler patches of water upwelled last week by the passage of Tropical Cyclone Chapala. On Sunday, Megh powered ashore over Yemen’s Socotra Island as a major Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Although news reports from the area remain sparse, it appears likely that Megh brought a second round of devastation to an island hard-hit the previous week by the passage of Tropical Cyclone Chapala. A BBC report cites AFP as reporting at least two deaths on Socotra due to Megh, with a spokesperson for the Socotra Environment Office reporting more homes destroyed by Megh than by Chapala. The latter cyclone passed just to the north of Socotra Island on November 2 when the storm was at Category 3 strength. Satellite images on Monday morning showed that Megh had suffered significant disruption of its cloud pattern, and by the time the storm reaches the south Yemen coast between Mukalla and Aden sometime on Tuesday, Megh will likely be a rapidly weakening tropical storm. Still, Megh will likely dump heavy rains over a desert region unused to seeing them, and widespread destructive flooding is likely near where the center comes ashore.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/kate-forms-near-bahamas-megh-heads-toward-yemen-coast-after-battering

    Reply
  68. – ‘On November 5, two dams retaining tons of iron-mining waste near the Brazilian town of Bento Rodrigues burst, releasing a massive flood of thick, red toxic mud that flattened buildings and trees, smothered the small town, killed at least four, and left another 28 still missing. The dams are operated by the mining company Samarco, which is jointly owned by two larger mining companies: Vale, from Brazil and BHP Billiton, from Australia.’

    Reply
  69. Colorado Bob

     /  November 9, 2015

    How Fossil Fuel Executives Fooled Themselves on Climate Change

    Oil companies’ climate change policies may not have been criminal, but they were self-deceiving.

    In his 2011 book, Deceit and Self-Deception: Fooling Yourself the Better to Fool Others, the Rutgers anthropologist Robert Trivers examines the evolutionary roots of self-delusion. According to the review of the book in The Guardian, Trivers “explains how the human male drive for power and control correlates with ignorance and self-delusion.” Magnified by the power of money, the focus on “building shareholder value,” the cult of the all-wise CEO, and the self-reinforcing bubble in which fossil fuel executives live and operate, these forces are strongly displayed in the self-deception and moral confusion of fossil fuel executives. (It’s worth noting that this applies mostly to U.S. fossil fuel companies; European companies have taken a much more realistic and progressive stance on climate effects.)

    Whatever their personal beliefs on climate change—a psychological puzzle that would take a university department to plumb—it’s clear that the executives at Exxon Mobil, Peabody, and other fossil fuel companies have engaged in a long, thorough, and pervasive campaign of ignorance and self-delusion. Soon they will find out what that campaign will cost them.

    Link

    Reply
    • – Good find.
      “… ignorance and self-delusion” also defines the whole ‘car culture’ and all that came along for ‘the ride’.

      Reply
    • Steve Coll: Private Empire: ExxonMobil and American Power – June 4, 2013
      53 min.

      Reply
    • I think there’s a very fine line between this level of self delusion and criminality. It’s one thing to lie to yourself or to even tell lies to others. But when those lies become outright, decades long campaigns to actively deceive the public on climate change, to fight tooth and nail to oppose the very policies that will prevent or reduce the impact of human caused warming, then it has gone far beyond self deception. We have whole branches of media towing the fossil fuel company line. Just yesterday, I listened to four oil company commercials on the radio (American Petroleum Institute). One attacked the renewable fuels standard, one talked about how fossil fuels were the future of American energy, one attacked the Clean Power Plan, and one attacked the Clean Air Act’s ozone (NOx) regulations. These guys are actively fighting anything that helps to deal with the problem in the future and are doing their best to undermine what’s still in place. And when the survival of civilization depends on our ability to have these policies and to respond to this, then how are such actions not criminal or at the very least grossly amoral?

      This goes well beyond the typical industry dominance games that occur in a free market. This is an issue of if one industry gets its way then everyone else suffers, loses their homes, is forced to be displaced, pays higher prices for food or goes without altogether, ends up being shipped off to some foreign war because whole nations collapsed due to climate change. This isn’t smoking where a person can make the choice to not smoke. In this case, any continued use of fossil fuels directly and negatively affects everyone on basically the same scale. Even worse, those who use these fuels the least will tend to be the most adversely impacted. I don’t know that there’s an industry in history that’s had this kind of negative overall effect.

      This article apologizes too much. It turns the bad actions by fossil fuel companies into meaningless psychobabble. Which is even worse considering the fact that they’re still doing it. No apologies for these guys. They need to stop the bad action now. They need to admit they were wrong. And some of them may need to go to jail.

      Reply
      • Right.
        And, if corporations have the ‘rights of citizens’ then they have the same responsibilities — and can be punished in civil and criminal actions.
        They are masters, with lots of practice, of propaganda saturation and economic extortion.

        Reply
  70. Analysts expect bankruptcy for Arch Coal, a reflection of industry woes
    Climate policies make a rebound for coal unlikely.

    Listen to congressional Republicans, and you would think that President Obama’s regulations are behind the nosedive the coal industry has taken this year. Alpha Natural Resources filed for Chapter 11 this summer, Arch Coal may follow next. Its stock, which traded as high as $3,600 in 2011 dipped to $1.50 this week.

    http://www.hcn.org/articles/coals-present-woes-are-due-to-bad-multi-billion-dollar-deals-and-cheap-natural-gas?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=563e139904d30120c76c2683&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

    Reply
  71. -Disfigured roses blooming, rotting, wilting from air pollution — likely from NOX and SO2, Nov. 8, 2015, Portland, Oregon USA

    Reply
  72. Ryan in New England

     /  November 9, 2015

    We are rocketing past the 1C threshold, and 2015 is a year of records for many reasons…

    Climate change is set to pass the milestone of 1C of warming since pre-industrial times by the end of 2015, representing “uncharted territory” according to scientists at the UK’s Met Office.

    2015 is also set to be the hottest on record, as the temperatures are so far beating past records “by a country mile”, they said. The World Meteorological Organization further announced on Monday that 2016 would be the first year in which the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is over 400ppm on average, due to the continued burning of fossil fuels.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/09/worlds-climate-about-to-enter-uncharted-territory-as-it-passes-1c-of-warming

    Reply
  73. Colorado Bob

     /  November 9, 2015

    Maria –

    NWS Utah tweet from November 07—The current temperature at SLC airport is 32°F, the first freeze of the fall. The average date of the first fall freeze is Oct. 19th.

    I spent a great deal of time in Utah hunting oil.

    In May of 1979 I drilled a seismic shot hole at 10,400 ft. on a Texaco contract, on the West end of the Unita Mountains. We drilled all winter long in places one cannot image. Back then, 2 feet of snow would fall in a night, on the Wasatch , and the Unitas in the first week of Oct. To see how dry the water shed here is becoming is really depressing. They didn’t have a lot of water to work with back then. Their mountains aren’t really that wide, like Colorado, and the Unitas, run East / West. So the snow does fall in great pop corn sized flakes it lands in a pretty small bowl.

    And the way the heat has been hammering them, there’s a lot of trouble coming to the Morons.

    Reply
    • Bob—I just drove thru the very area you’re talking about this week. Very dry. Dusting of snow here and there. Yet business and development are humming along. Even more structures up this year than last year. Oh, the irony of a JC Penny sprawling structure abutting a windmill field…As I drove thru the towns of Helper(with a brand new housing development and golf course) and Price—stopped to get water/gas, etc–I could once again feel the remoteness of these towns and their people. I don’t have SIRIUS and lost radio reception–to even the evangelical preachers. One of the thoughts that came to mind: “how can we get these kids/young adults to buy into climate change when work in coal/oil/minerals is all many have known?” When the media they’re exposed to is part of the FF merchants of doubt complex?

      Reply
      • Oh, I think it’ll be the time when the New York City subway system and the area’s vehicular tunnels flood due solely to a high tide (especially if it’s sunny out) and Fox News and its parent, News Corporation finally have to admit to global warming.

        Reply
  74. Colorado Bob

     /  November 9, 2015

    dtlange –

    That horse picture this is real price of our modern world.

    Reply
  75. – Media briefing on carbon’s role in Earth’s future climate
    By Steve Cole,
    NASA Headquarters

    NASA will host a media teleconference at 9 a.m. PST (noon EST) on Thursday, Nov. 12, to discuss the latest insights into how Earth is responding to rising levels of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, and what this means for our future climate.

    – NASA is advancing new tools like the supercomputer model that created this simulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to better understand what will happen to Earth’s climate if the land and ocean can no longer absorb nearly half of all climate-warming CO2 emissions. Credit: NASA/GSFC.

    Reply
  76. steve moore

     /  November 9, 2015

    I thought Brazil was going to be the home of the first huge climate induced catastrophe. I guess not. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-34770831 How sad!

    Reply
  77. Colorado Bob

     /  November 9, 2015

    Exxon’s problems –

    Reply
  78. Colorado Bob

     /  November 9, 2015

    Some might find this online book interesting: The Impact of Publicity on Corporate Offenders. One of the cases it discusses is the bribery scandal that affected Exxon during the 1970’s.

    The highest points to take away:

    In September 1977, the SEC negotiated a consent decree with Exxon which constrains the company from failing to disclose “material information” regarding questionable payments in SEC filings and from making false or fictitious bookkeeping entries to conceal political payments. The decree also prohibited the maintenance of any off-book funds “material in nature, effect or amount,” irrespective of the use to which such funds are put.

    and

    Insiders pointed out that many Exxon employees began to feel that their own company was not particularly honest, and that hypocrisy had pervaded the mouthing of ethical platitudes by management in the past.

    Partly as a response to this morale problem, Exxon Management became increasingly detrmined as the 1970s progressed to show that its commitment to business ethics was not hypocritical. The September 24, 1975, Policy Statement on Business Ethics, which went from the Chairman to every Exxon employee, laid this on the line:

    An overly-ambitious employee might have the mistaken idea that we do not care how results are obtained, as ong as he gets results. He might think it best not to tell higher management all that he is doing, not to record all transactions accurately in his books and records, and to deceive the Corporation’s internal and external auditors. He would be wrong on all counts.

    We do care how we get results. We expect compliance with our standard of integrity throughout the organization. We will not tolerate an employee who achieves results at the cost of violation of laws or unscrupulous dealing. By the same token, we will support, and we expect you to support, an employee who passes up an opportunity or advantage which can only be wsecured at the sacrifice of principle.

    Equally important, we expect candor from managers at all levels, and compliance with accounting rules and controls. We don’t want liars for managers, whether they are lying in mistaken effort to protect us or to make themselves look good. One of the kinds of harm which results when a manager conceals information from higher management and the auditors is that subordinates within his organization think they are being given a signal that company policies and rules, including accounting and control rules, can be ignored whenever inconvenient. This can result in corruption and demoralization of an organization. Our system of management will not work without honesty, including honest bookkeeping, honest budget proposals, and honest economic evaluation of projects.

    Back around 1980 when Exxon was studying climate change they made a decision to publish the results because of explicit concern for ethical appearances [see the InsideclimateNews.org stories]. Reports to management emphasized that climate change from CO2 was real. From insideclimatenews.org:

    “Over the past several years a clear scientific consensus has emerged,” Cohen wrote in September 1982, reporting on Exxon’s own analysis of climate models. It was that a doubling of the carbon dioxide blanket in the atmosphere would produce average global warming of 3 degrees Celsius, plus or minus 1.5 degrees C (equal to 5 degrees Fahrenheit plus or minus 1.7 degrees F).

    “There is unanimous agreement in the scientific community that a temperature increase of this magnitude would bring about significant changes in the earth’s climate,” he wrote, “including rainfall distribution and alterations in the biosphere.”

    He warned that publication of the company’s conclusions might attract media attention because of the “connection between Exxon’s major business and the role of fossil fuel combustion in contributing to the increase of atmospheric CO2.”

    Nevertheless, he recommended publication.

    Our “ethical responsibility is to permit the publication of our research in the scientific literature,” Cohen wrote. “Indeed, to do otherwise would be a breach of Exxon’s public position and ethical credo on honesty and integrity.”

    From
    22. bappit
    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/comment.html?entrynum=349#commenttop

    Reply
    • Bob(and all) just catching up after a busy couple of days. Thanks so much for posting. The Exxon story comes at a time when it has traction. It documents, at a crucial time, a well-tried tactic of big business – working both sides of an issue. By catching the attention of New York Attorney General, it will stay around a while. It contributes to the potential for this COP to be a policy opportunity.

      Reply
  79. Mblanc

     /  November 9, 2015

    1.6C warming already in the system.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn28469-carbon-emissions-hit-new-high-and-temperature-rise-soars-to-1-c/

    So many milestones, so little time.

    Reply
  80. Colorado Bob

     /  November 10, 2015

    I’m looking up Exxon’s email Send –
    Lawyers Guns and Money /

    Reply
  81. Colorado Bob

     /  November 10, 2015

    Exxon email –
    http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/company/contact-us/email-us

    Let’s all send them Warren Zevon .

    Reply
  82. Colorado Bob

     /  November 10, 2015

    How great was he ?
    Poor, Poor Pitiful Me

    Reply
  83. Colorado Bob

     /  November 10, 2015

    There is a great balance in laying a dead poet’s words at the feet of a parliament of whores.

    Reply
  84. Abel Adamski

     /  November 10, 2015

    For MSM a pretty reasonable article even if putting everything off to the future. Does include a video on EXXON
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/30042499/life-on-planet-at-stake-warnings-over-climate-change-catastrophe/

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  November 10, 2015

      Sorry the video was about the 50th anniversary of the first official warming

      Reply
  85. Colorado Bob

     /  November 10, 2015

    dtlange –
    I can’t get that man and horse out of my head. As a 21 century image that’s it. And I am a trained artist. The Twin towers burning will pale, the man in the mud will rise.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  November 10, 2015

      There is something about it . He may own that horse , he may be kind and helpless.
      We don’t know.

      It is the price of the modern world.

      Reply
    • CB, I know what you mean. That’s why I posted it first.
      I tear up each I look at it.

      Reply
  86. Colorado Bob

     /  November 10, 2015

    Come on .

    Come on .

    Come on .

    The world has changed , even if you missed the memo.

    Reply
  87. Colorado Bob

     /  November 10, 2015

    The Missouri football team relieved the head of the school of his job today.

    Reply
  88. Colorado Bob

     /  November 10, 2015

    The Missouri football team relieved the head of the school of his job yesterday.
    Bad news for Exxon.

    Reply
  89. ‘The loss of the largest glacier that feeds the Quinault River and rising seas are threatening the tribe’s way of life’
    – Earthfix – audio of Quinalt at site.
    A Washington Tribe Confronts Climate Change, Sea Level Rise

    Here in the Northwest, sea level rise is forcing a Native American tribe to consider abandoning lands it has inhabited for thousands of years.

    The Quinault Indian Nation, whose small village lies at the mouth of the Quinault River on the outer coast of Washington’s Olympic Peninsula, now relies on a 2,000 foot long sea wall to protect it from the encroaching Pacific Ocean.

    The threat of climate change for the Quinault doesn’t end with sea level rise. About five years ago the Anderson Glacier, which contributes cool water to the Quinault River at critical times of year, disappeared for good. It had been receding since locals began photographing it, but Fawn Sharp still remembers the day when she saw that it was completely gone.

    “In that moment I could feel my heart sinking, thinking that the glacier that feeds the mighty Quinault River has now disappeared.”

    Reply
  90. Colorado Bob

     /  November 10, 2015

    What a strange world dtlange . We seem to the last jackasses on Earth. I never planned to live this long, by 15 years. .

    Reply
  91. Colorado Bob

     /  November 10, 2015

    dtlange,

    You do good work, and you do it deep. God bless you wherever you go.

    Reply
    • Thank you, CB.
      I don’t know of any other way to be engaged.

      “When I was boy.
      I thought of when I would be a man.
      I’d sit inside a bottle and pretend
      I was in a can…”

      A. Lee – Love – “7&7 Is”🙂

      Reply
      • ‘Made the scene
        Week to week
        Day to day
        Hour to hour
        The gate is straight
        Deep and wide
        Break on through to the other side’

        The Doors ‘Break on Through”

        Reply
  92. – MIchael Mann on Radio Ecoshock

    CLIMATE DEADLINE
    http://www.ecoshock.info/2015/02/climate-deadline.html

    Reply
  93. Colorado Bob

     /  November 10, 2015

    dtlange –

    Never stop, never die,

    never never lay down.

    Reply
  94. Ryan in New England

     /  November 10, 2015

    The monster El Nino continues to strengthen…

    Weekly Update (November 9, 2015):
    Strong El Niño conditions remain in place. The weekly sea surface temperature reading, taken within the Niño 3.4 region near the equator, has risen to 2.8°C above average. This is the highest value observed to date during this event and ties the highest weekly departure of 2.8°C recorded in late November 1997 during the record-setting 1997-98 El Niño. NOAA provides an update on El Niño conditions each Monday.

    https://wunderground.atavist.com/el-nino-forecast

    Reply
  95. “A second extremely rare and powerful tropical cyclone has hit Yemen’s Socotra island in the space of a week.

    The OCHA said 230,000 people on the mainland would be exposed to high winds and heavy rainfall, with the provinces of Abyan and al-Bayda worst affected.

    A spokeswoman for the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), Clare Nullis, told AFP that tropical cyclones were extremely rare over the Arabian Peninsula, and that two back-to-back was “an absolutely extraordinary event”.
    It comes as Yemen experiences a humanitarian crisis as a result of a war between forces loyal to the government and the Houthi rebel movement.”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34764971

    Reply
    • – Another climate benchmark surpassed: “….an absolutely extraordinary event”.
      Yemen, Somalia, et al are getting blasted by human caused war and CC.

      Reply
  96. Andy in SD

     /  November 10, 2015
    Reply
    • James Burton

       /  November 10, 2015

      How is San Diego doing? Is there any El Nino effect showing up there yet? Like major rain systems. The news is mostly silent.

      Reply
      • Andy in SD

         /  November 10, 2015

        Nothing yet. should be starting in a few weeks if it follows the normal routine.

        Reply
        • Moisture flow is starting to tilt your way. There’s a forecast for a big trough sweeping in (may not reach so far south as your area) early next week. Considering how hot the Pacific is at this time, I think the serious trouble we’ve been so concerned about these past two years is almost certainly on the way.

    • – I noticed a wide plume of smoke or (smog) flowing out of Pakistan? and out over the Indus River Delta, I believe.
      Is this Baikal smoke?

      Reply
  97. James Burton

     /  November 10, 2015

    The giant California utilities – PG&E, Southern California Energy and San Diego Gas & Electric – are determined to kill net metering, because it cuts into the profitability of their centralized energy production business.
    ” One of the main reasons that solar energy is growing so fast in California is “net metering” … i.e. crediting rooftop solar users for surplus power their systems create, which is fed back into the grid for use by other customers.
    Currently, rooftop solar owners are credited at the same rate they would pay the utility for electricity.”

    Corporate America’s energy businesses are the main road block to ever taking fossil fuels out of the energy mix. They would rather destroy all of us, than change one little bit of their profit potential. This is criminal, but totally accepted practice!

    Reply
  98. Apneaman

     /  November 10, 2015

    Just came across this. Immediately thought of the Scribbler crew.

    Climate Monitoring Resources

    “I’ve gathered together a list of regularly updated resources for climate monitoring. This is the kind of information you can use to get a reasonably up-to-date view of what’s happening around the world in the climate. This can be surprisingly hard to do and there are some blind spots, which are slowly getting filled over time. Thanks to Ruth Mottram, Andrew Watkins, Oliver Bothe and Mark McCarthy for suggestions and (many) additional links.”

    https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/monitoring-resources/

    Reply
    • – Thanks Apneaman for the wide array of resources here.

      – One sign of change that I’ve been interested in is the rising minimum temps in North America. One influence which also plays a part is the urban heat island effect from asphalt etc.
      – And to a lesser extent the day to day temp spread at a location.
      PDX will a succession of days with 30 F spread followed by a 9 F — then back up to 30.

      – NA Rising minimums here at:

      Reply
  99. – TPP and corporate chemicals — FF petro-chemical $$$.
    From a commerce.gov link:
    OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE U.S. CHEMICAL SECTOR
    Trans-Pacific Partnership

    The Chemical Sector includes products such as cosmetics, paints, rubber products, plastics, fertilizers, and organic/inorganic chemicals.
    http://trade.gov/fta/tpp/industries/chemicals.asp

    Reply
  100. – Acidic Ocean Benefits ‘Killer Algae,’ Jellyfish

    “Killer algae” is being helped by ocean acidification from climate change.

    Ocean acidification actually is helping invasive species of algae, jellyfish, crabs and shellfish, which are more tolerant of rising CO2 levels than native species in many areas, to spread and take over new habitats.

    http://news.discovery.com/earth/oceans/acidic-ocean-benefits-killer-algae-jellyfish-151110.htm

    Reply
    • Nice to see Discovery finally writing about this… Although it’s kind of an odd way to say it. Killer algae benefits… How about just — Hothouse Ocean Breeds Killer Algae, Toxic Jellyfish, Invasive Species?

      Reply
      • – Yeah, Discover is mostly mass-media oriented — doctor’s offices etc. always have copies in their waiting rooms.

        Reply
  101. Tell Congress to Stop Bullying Scientists

    Representative Lamar Smith is using his bully pulpit as head of the House Committee on Science, Space & Technology to subpoena National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climate scientists’ emails, peer review comments, and other private information. He’s upset with a paper NOAA scientists published in Science refuting claims of a global warming slowdown, so he’s smearing the scientists who wrote it.

    This abuse of power has to stop. Sign the letter today.

    https://secure3.convio.net/ucs/site/Advocacy;jsessionid=5918F379D869E70CFBE4338336653017.app338a?pagename=homepage&page=UserAction&id=4998&autologin=true

    Reply
  1. The Frankentides are Coming — US East Coast to See Season of Flooding From El Nino + Sea Level Rise This Winter | GarryRogers Nature Conservation and Science Fiction (#EcoSciFi)
  2. Frankentides and US East Coast Flooding | Planet in Distress

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