Humankind’s Last Days Below 400 PPM CO2?

Another ominous milestone fades away in the smog behind us…

By mid November of 2015, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels as measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory had again risen above 400 parts per million. Over the past two weeks, these levels maintained. And even though we may see a few days during which CO2 levels drop below that key threshold during late November and, perhaps, early December, those days could well be the last.

The last days of below 400 parts per million CO2 may then be behind us. It’s likely that none of us now living will ever see such ‘low’ levels of this critical atmospheric greenhouse gas. And it’s possible that humankind itself will never again see a day in which CO2 levels fall into this range (please see Is This the Last Year Below 400 PPM CO2?).

mlo_one_month

(By November 13 of 2015, atmospheric CO2 levels at the Mauna Loa Observatory had risen above the 400 ppm CO2 threshold. During 2015, just four months of the year have been below that level. For 2016, it’s possible that no month will average below 400 ppm CO2. And after that time, we’ll likely never see below 400 ppm CO2 levels again. Image source: The Keeling Curve.)

Dr. Ralph Keeling, in a blog over at the Keeling Curve site back in October clearly explained why 2015 may be the last year with monthly readings below 400 ppm CO2. In short, the added global heat from El Nino tends to squeeze more carbon out of the Earth’s lands and oceans. As a result, strong El Nino years have tended to show higher rates of atmospheric CO2 increase when these Earth System feedbacks are added in to the carbon coming from an insane global rate of fossil fuel burning. The last time a strong El Nino emerged during 1998, global CO2 levels rose by 3.7 parts per million during a single year. Since the rate of human fossil fuel burning has substantially increased over the 1998 to 2015 period and as the current El Nino is peaking at or above 1997-1998 intensities, it’s possible that the annual increase in CO2 could match or exceed that seen during 1998. We could see annual CO2 levels rise by 3.5, 3.75, or even 4 parts per million or more during the 2015 to 2016 interval.

If CO2 levels rise so rapidly, 2015 will be the last year seeing any significant period below 400 ppm.

mlo_two_years

(During 2016, CO2 levels as measured at Mauna Loa will peak at between 405 and 408 parts per million CO2. These levels are the highest seen at any time during the last 3-15 million years and are more typical to the early Pliocene or Middle Miocene climate epochs. Such amazingly high levels of CO2 beg equally amazing and harmful geophysical changes to follow. Image source: The Keeling Curve.)

Unfortunately, due to CO2’s long residence time in the atmosphere and also due to the fact that the added heat provided by that CO2 tends to generate long-lasting carbon feedbacks from the global environment, it is likely that this period of above 400 parts per million CO2 will last for a very, very long time. With a single molecule of CO2 having a warming impact period of at least 500 years so long as the oceans can eventually draw the net carbon increase down (a dubious proposition in the context of warming world), even if human fossil fuel emissions halted after just one or two additional decades, it would mean that above 400 parts per million CO2 levels last for centuries to come. On the other hand, if human fossil fuel burning and related carbon emissions continue even into the middle of this Century, then it’s possible that such heightened CO2 levels could last for millennia — possibly outlasting the human race itself. In such an event, the only hope for bringing CO2 back to levels below 400 parts per million is a very significant change in land use, farming, and technological practices to directly draw carbon out of the atmosphere.

Atmospheric CO2 levels remaining at 400 parts per million for any significant period will push the Earth climate to warm by between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius. It will push for sea levels to rise by at least 75 feet. In other words, a world at 400 parts per million is a world radically changed. A world that human beings have never seen before. And as a cautionary note, the total forcing from all greenhouse gasses currently emitted by humans is now in the range of 485 parts per million of CO2 equivalent. A level well beyond the current 400 parts per million threshold and one that likely equates to around 4 degrees Celsius worth of long term warming.

These are the stark consequences of fossil fuel burning. A burning, that if it continues, will almost certainly ensure that human beings living after 2015 or 2016 never again see CO2 levels below 400 parts per million.

Links:

The Keeling Curve

Is This the Last Year Below 400?

Pliocene Climate

Miocene Climate

Skeptical Science on CO2 Residence Times

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a comment

122 Comments

  1. Kevin Jones

     /  November 25, 2015

    David Archer informs us, as the paleoclimate record informs him, that given time a 1C change equals 10-20 meters of sea level change. Since our story is heating, this indicates, in time a 33 to 65 foot sea level rise. I’m somehow reminded of George W. Bush being overheard whispering to Tony Blair during a French presidents remarks at a climate conference: “These people don”t even have a word for ‘entreprenure’ . But watch them go invest in mountaintop real estate & scuba gear….

    Reply
    • W, if he did say it, gets marks again for foot in mouth syndrome. In my view, though, his policies were far, far worse than any perceived verbal bungling on the international stage. One wonders where we’d be without his wholesale support of the fossil fuel industry, his big move toward laissez faire economics, his administration’s direct attacks on science, and what amounts to 8 years of the EPA going AWOL.

      Archer, as ever, provides fantastic references.

      Reply
    • LJR

       /  November 27, 2015

      http://www.snopes.com/quotes/bush.asp

      Bush never said that according to snopes.

      Reply
      • I think the rumor had legs due to the fact that, even if Bush didn’t say it, there was a bit of truth in the fiction. The Bush party had long benefitted from the demonization of the French as ‘socialists’ who couldn’t grasp the so called virtues of their free market (neo liberal) worldview. The party had also benefitted from a fake portrayal of corporatists as so called ‘entreprenuers.’ This fiddling with language set them up for a well-deserved ridicule, which they received in spades. So the fable, as it was, ended up being an accurate portrayal of the republican mindset. One, it’s sad to say, hasn’t really changed since that time.

        Reply
      • Kevin Jones

         /  November 29, 2015

        I stand corrected. Remember reading it as a footnote in some book…. Thanks, LJR

        Reply
  2. Kevin Jones

     /  November 25, 2015

    sp: ‘entrepreneur’

    Reply
  3. – Top scientists accuse House panel of harassing climate researchers

    Leading scientists have accused a Republican-led committee of subjecting climate researchers to politically motivated “harassment” amid an increasingly fractious investigation into the activity of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa).

    The letter added: “Scientists should not be subjected to fraud investigations or harassment simply for providing scientific results that some may see as politically controversial.

    “Science cannot thrive when policymakers – regardless of party affiliation – use policy disagreements as a pretext to attack scientific conclusions without public evidence.”
    http://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/nov/25/leading-scientists-accuse-house-panel-of-harassing-climate-researchers

    Reply
  4. – We’re up against a real ruthless and unprincipled bunch.

    – Lee Fang – The Intercept:

    Lobbyists, in Strategy Session, Conclude That Refugee Crisis “Helps Us” Defeat Regulations

    In an audio recording of a strategy session obtained by The Intercept, major trade association lobbyists discussed how the refugee crisis has changed the political dynamics in Washington to their advantage.

    In the conference call held last week, lobbyists representing a number of high-polluting industries agreed that the battle between Congress and President Obama on refugee policy will give them the cover they need to attach a legislative rider to the omnibus budget bill that rolls back newly expanded clean water regulation.

    “I think that probably helps us,” one participant said, referring to the coming confrontation over refugee policy.

    https://theintercept.com/2015/11/24/lobbyists-refugee-crisis/

    Reply
  5. Listening to Kevin Anderson we’ll have a very hard time with a 3°C limit. Saying we’ll make 2.7°C with current INDC’s is sending a false message in my opinion. Like Kevin says, it’s not good to be pessimistic, but the same goes for being optimistic.
    http://manchesterclimatemonthly.net/2015/11/25/professor-kevin-anderson-on-climate-hope-2-degrees-and-paris/

    Reply
    • If atmospheric CO2e levels are a direct match to ESS, then we’ve already blown through 2 C this Century at 485 ppm CO2e (4 C long term warming). 400 ppm CO2 alone is enough to exceed 1.5 C this Century (2.4 C long term warming). To have much chance, in my view, to miss 2 C we need to be net carbon negative by or well before 2030.

      According to UNEP, we hit about 52 to 60 gt CO2e emissions by 2030 under current policy trajectories and INDCs. That gets us to 435 ppm CO2 and 535 ppm CO2e by that time. The CO2 alone is enough to exceed 1.7 C by end century (3.4 C long term) and that CO2e is enough to hit 2.85 this Century (5.7 C long term).

      The problem is that current policy sees emissions continuing to increase through at least 2035 and probably the 2040s or 2050s. That’s just inexcusable. Also current policy is myopic to this Century. It doesn’t take into account the far more catastrophic long term warming we’ll be locking in for future Centuries. It’s as if the only Century that matters is 21rst, which is frankly ludicrous.

      If we want to be responsible about carbon emissions, we need policies that include the most aggressive reductions possible. We have too many delays and concessions to fossil fuels currently. Too many nonsense transitions from coal to gas when we are fully capable of transitioning to renewables now. Too much coddling of privatized utilities that should have never been privatized in the first place. Too much whining by current monopolies about losing their existing control over energy supply and distribution. If we want to deal with the problem, these interests need to take a back seat.

      Reply
      • You know it and I know it. But the problem is that most people don’t. The key word is motivation. We went to the moon because we we’re motivated. We’re not solving global warming right now because we’re not motivated.

        The solution needs to come from the bottom up, from the people. But you can’t expect people to understand the problem as well as you do. So instead we need to feed the information to the public as simple and as best as we can. In that respect I thought the Bloomberg graphic was absolutely brilliant. http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/

        We need more of this stuff. As good as your stuff is Robert, I don’t think it’s for everyone as people who read this blog are already motivated. That’s meant as a compliment by the way.
        So how to get more people motivated? What ever it is, it has to abide by KISS. The latest idea I’ve been working on is a simple scale. Here’s an updated version. But it might need some improvement. http://globalwarmingguide.info/global-warming-scale/

        Other than that, we need to spread the word as much as we can. And for people like me I’m going to hit the streets, next Sunday it’s going to be Amsterdam and the week after that I’ll be in Paris. What ever it takes…

        Reply
        • The second scale is a decent first shot. But it’s not likely to be technically accurate. 750 ppm CO2 is about 8-9 C warming long term and 75 meter SLR long term. 3 meters per 1 C is vastly too conservative. The scale is more in the range of 3-10 meters for 1-2 C. 10-25 meters for 2-3 C. 25 to 50 meters for 3-5 C. And all ice melted at 5-6 C 50-75 meter SLR.

        • As for communications effectiveness, I’m not bragging but here we turn laypeople into climate experts every day. And I think that’s what our goal should be. The more people we have out there with knowledge spreading the word, then the better off we all are. This blog’s not for people already in the know. It’s for the climate interested and for generating climate interest.

        • Now we can only hope one day you’ll score higher on Google than WUT. Saying you deserve that would be an understatement!

      • PlazaRed

         /  November 28, 2015

        I think +2/C this century will be a very conservative estimation.
        We must start to take into account the amount of CO2 that the planet has stored up and can freely release back into the atmosphere. The +2/c is a matter of simple arithmetic. We need a team of Newton’s and their like to work out what’s really going to happen and how high the CO2 is really going to get?
        As Newton is reported to have said. ” working out “Principala” was simple, the biggest problem is working out how to build the bridge to drag the rest of humanity over, so as they can understand it.”
        The same rings even more true for todays people, who really haven’t got a clue what is going one, and probably at root level don’t care!
        Most of us wont be here to see what happens in the next 30 to 50 years but our family’s will and they may claim we set the future as an inheritance for them?

        Reply
    • danabanana

       /  November 30, 2015

      “Now we can only hope one day you’ll score higher on Google than WUT.”

      WUWT scores higher because is more popular… just as books by James Lovelock are far more popular with the public than James Hansen’s. Sad but true =/

      Reply
    • NWS OPC ‏@NWSOPC 22m22 minutes ago

      Both Hurricane Sandra & extratropical hurricane force low in N Pacific today, picture describes differences.

      Reply
  6. – NWSOPC
    Published on Nov 25, 2015
    The N Pacific is extremely active at this time!
    11/25/15 – Himawari RGB imagery with multiple hurricane force lows and Typhoon In-fa

    Reply
    • ‘This video of the Himawari-8 RGB air mass product shows a pair of extratropical hurricane force (winds ≥ 64 knots) low pressure systems over the N Pacific over the past several days. They are the latest in a series of strong systems to impact the basin.

      The first system is shown as a mature hurricane force marine cyclone on the eastern edge of the projection. It moves off to the east while weakening.

      The entire development of the second system is also shown in the video. It starts as a shortwave trough moving off of Asia west of Japan where it can be viewed in the imagery as shades of tan under the upper level cirrus (white). In then rapidly intensifies as it moves into the central Pacific while merging with another system. The shades of maroon that can be seen wrapping around the low as it matures is an indication of subsidence behind the front with stronger winds aloft mixing down toward the surface.’

      Reply
    • These things are really starting to fire up. West to east across the Pacific there’s quite a lot of energy for these things to feed on. It’s going to be a really rough winter.

      Reply
  7. Vic

     /  November 25, 2015

    Two people confirmed dead in devastating bushfires in South Australia
    13 people are in hospital with five in a critical condition with serious burns
    There are also fears a third person may have died in the inferno
    There are also 2000 pigs which have died in a piggery
    Number of dangerous bushfires burning north and east of Adelaide
    Firefighters have received burns while working in Mallala and Roseworthy
    More than 350 volunteers are tackling a fire near Pinery, north of Adelaide
    The fire is threatening to hit the famous Barossa Valley wine region
    Another major fire burning near Lameroo, 200km about east of Adelaide

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3332976/At-two-firefighters-injured-huge-bushfire-north-Adelaide.html#ixzz3sY0z8QZZ

    Reply
  8. Had to laugh – first commercial video, playing just below the article covering the catastrophic use of fossil fuels, is for auto insurance. I know you don’t have any control over that, still…..ironic in the tragic sort of way we Homo Sapiens are ironic.

    Reply
  9. No time left to put out the fire?

    Sent from my iPad 🙏🏻

    >

    Reply
  10. Eric Thurston

     /  November 26, 2015

    Has anybody seen any feedback on the posting a week ago by Apneaman on the apollo-gaia project publication “Facing the Harsh Realities of Now”

    http://www.apollo-gaia.org/harsh-realities-of-now.html

    I’m especially interested in getting some learned feedback (Robert???) or feedback from some climatologists. If what David Wasdell says in this publication is even partially true, the future looks grim indeed.

    Reply
    • I think Wasdell is venturing a bit beyond the current understanding of climate responses to CO2 increase when he gets 2 C warming at 334 ppm. We don’t really have evidence of that level of warming from paleoclimate. The best correlary — the Pliocene — produces 2-3 C ESS warming at 390 to 405 ppm.

      Based on broad studies of paleoclimate, a good range for ESS is 5-6.5 C warming for each doubling of CO2 long term. 7.8 C is on the high end, even for ESS, and would require extraordinary circumstances outside of currently developed evidence to be achieved.

      I agree with Wasdell in that the current velocity of climate change and human forced warming may have an added impact. Unfortunately, looking at the very unstable transition periods between glacials and interglacials as a paleoclimate reference may not yield an accurate comparison to current conditions. My suspicion is that the energy balance equation here is missing some bits. The older epochs, on the other hand provide a clearer picture of baseline sensitivity. Unfortunately, we have no baseline correlary for the rampant pace of human warming and GHG buildup which is far faster than ocean cycling can keep up. I think, if someone wanted to try for a more accurate picture of ESS in the current age, then they need to take the GHG buildup and warming faster than ocean cycling factor into account. That may yield a better ESS number. But if you’re picking Pliocene correlary vs interglacial/glacial correlary, I’d take Pliocene, for example.

      In my view, Hansen’s ESS measure is probably the best yardstick we currently have.

      Reply
      • Eric Thurston

         /  November 26, 2015

        Thanks for the input, Robert. And, as always, thanks for being the best place to go for reliable climate information and analysis.

        Reply
  11. Olof R

     /  November 26, 2015

    To smooth a seasonal variable like atmospheric CO2 content, one should use a 12-month running mean, and by eyeballing the graph above, the 12 month mean is clearly above 400 ppm and will be so for a very long time…

    Reply
  12. Ryan in New England

     /  November 26, 2015

    It is absolute insanity what we are doing. We all know in the last 800,000 years or so CO2 has been between 180 and 280 ppm, and that 100 ppm was the difference between an ice age and easy living, and we’ve evolved and developed society in this narrow window of beautifully stable climate…and we have completely thrown that gift away. And yet we still keep adding CO2 to the atmosphere ate unbelievable rates. This has got to be the most immoral act in the history of life on Earth. This is guaranteeing ecocide and habitat destruction/removal on a scale that was once reserved for asteroids, the Siberian Traps and other extinction level events. And if you look at long term business plans of fossil fuel companies, they are set on taking the world to six, seven, eight hundred parts per million. The right wing believes there is nothing wrong with 600 ppm CO2. To those of us with an appreciation for facts, data and reality, this kind of craziness is simply unthinkable.

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  November 27, 2015

      http://www.freepressjournal.in/co2-impact-on-global-warming-underestimated/

      New York : The rise in carbon dioxide (CO2) levels would have more catastrophic impact on the climate than currently estimated, suggests new research, reports IANS. The researchers found that climates on Earth may be more sensitive to rise in CO2 levels than was previously thought.

      The new data suggests that past predictions significantly underestimate the impact of greenhouse warming and that Earth’s climate may be more sensitive to increased carbon dioxide than was once thought, said one of the researchers Tim Lowenstein, professor at Binghamton University in New York.

      The study examined nahcolite crystals found in Green River Formation in Colorado, US. The crystals were formed 50 million years ago during a hothouse climate. They found that CO2 levels during this time may have been as low as 680 parts per million (ppm), nearly half the 1,125 ppm predicted by previous experiments.

      “The significance of this is that CO2 50 million years ago may not have been as high as we once thought it was, but the climate back then was significantly warmer than it is today,” Lowenstein explained.

      Reply
    • PlazaRed

       /  November 28, 2015

      Ryan, the right wing will probably be cut off soon, leading to an uncontrollable spiral to doom! Shortly!

      Reply
    • danabanana

       /  November 30, 2015

      ” And yet we still keep adding CO2 to the atmosphere ate unbelievable rates. ”

      … and we love doing it. Just look at the shopping madness at this time of year on any town/city… even online.

      Reply
      • Black Friday is a good metaphor for the larger problem — big corps push more sales for short term gain, addicting people to consumerism, supporting ever kind of excess, bad behavior, and selfish sense of entitlement. Stuff is the drug, the corps are the pushers. Greed becoming the governing spirit of the holiday.

        Reply
  13. utoutback

     /  November 26, 2015

    I am thankful for our voices of outrage & will be participating in the global climate demonstration on Sunday.
    Be well all and –
    Colorado Bob,
    “stand up for your rights, don’t give up the fight.”

    Reply
  14. I’m grateful for this beautiful planet that is so worthy –and for people like you, Robert and all, whose daily work and toil, shepherds others to join in the effort.

    Reply
  15. I am thankful for each of you. For the visions you all have the courage to share despite a great adversity. For the beautiful gift of life which you are ever so willing to protect. You inspire both thanks and humility, lending also the strength to carry on.

    Reply
  16. 12volt dan

     /  November 26, 2015

    Skeptical Science has has more on Exxon’s own science disinformation campaign and their damage control over the latest PNAS submission on their funding of think tanks that spread disinformation. it’s a good read. personally their comments (imo) would seem to bury them further into some kind of litigation

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/two-face-exxon-misinformation-campaign-against-own-scientists.html

    Reply
  17. Colorado Bob

     /  November 27, 2015

    An Unprecedented Thanksgiving Visitor: a Category 4 Hurricane

    As a system nears a tipping point, it moves to the extremes.

    Remarkable Hurricane Sandra exploded into a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds overnight, making it the latest major hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere (November 26.) The previous record was held by an unnamed Atlantic hurricane in 1934 that held on to Category 3 status until 00 UTC November 24. Sandra is also now the latest Category 4 storm ever observed in either the Eastern Pacific (previous record: Hurricane Kenneth on November 22, 2011) or the Atlantic (previous record: “Wrong Way” Lenny on November 18, 1999.) Prior to Sandra, the strongest East Pacific hurricane so late in the year was 1983’s Winnie, which topped out on December 6 at 90 mph winds. Sandra is the first major hurricane in the Western Hemisphere that has ever been observed on Thanksgiving Day. According to WU contributor Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University), Sandra is on track to become the latest landfalling tropical cyclone on record for Mexico, beating out Tara (Nov. 12, 1961). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for Sandra on Friday afternoon.

    Link

    Reply
  18. Colorado Bob

     /  November 27, 2015

    Alice’s Restaurant – Original 1967 Recording

    Reply
    • utoutback

       /  November 27, 2015

      CB –
      Thanks for that. Brings back some great ol’ memories. Ah those were the days, my friend. We thought they’d never end.

      Reply
  19. Colorado Bob

     /  November 27, 2015

    Two-faced Exxon: the misinformation campaign against its own scientists

    100% global warming consensus in Exxon scientists’ research contrasted its $31m campaign to cast doubt on that consensus

    Link

    $31m campaign to cast doubt, a drop in their bucket

    Reply
  20. Colorado Bob

     /  November 27, 2015

    Quicksilver Messenger Service – Fresh Air

    Reply
  21. Colorado Bob

     /  November 27, 2015

    I came across that old denier straw man tonight about cold killing more people than heat.
    I found this 4 year old link, book mark this one –
    Recent Heat Waves Likely Warmest Since 1500 in Europe

    The intense heat wave that centered on western Russia last summer was truly a record breaker. It surpassed even 2003’s scorcher in western and central Europe — which has been blamed for 70,000 deaths. And together, both of these mega heat waves have secured a place in the 500-year weather history of Europe, according to a new analysis.

    The researchers also looked ahead, and found that a variety of different climate models predict an increase in mega heat waves similar to these in the 21st century for two regions within Europe.

    From late July until the second week in August 2010, record heat settled across 772,204 square miles (2 million square kilometers) in Russia and Eastern Europe. In Moscow, the daytime temperatures reached 101 degrees Fahrenheit (38.2 degrees Celsius), in Kiev, nights reached 77 F (25 C), crops were destroyed, fires swept across western Russia, and preliminary estimates now put the Russian death toll at 55,000.

    by Wynne Parry | March 17, 2011 02:02pm ET

    So, there’s 125,000 deaths in just 2 events from heat . People dying from cold come in 2’s and 3’s.

    Reply
  22. Colorado Bob

     /  November 27, 2015

    One more –
    Quicksilver Messenger Service – Who Do You Love

    Reply
  23. Thankyou again Robert for keeping the flame. I’m veruy concerned about the lack of awareness of the effedts of steadily rising CO2 on it’s own let alone it’s warming effect – I’ve been compiling a list of other side effects of high CO2 for 10 years or more and the effects are VERY diverse, and entirely negative, yet I’ve come across people who deny it’s even rising! wtf. A lot of folk find their funding gets cut when they start reasearching though, although the US Navy has done some work an ocean acidification leading to sound carrying faster and disrupting cetacean hearing. Articles and links would make a useful article.

    If I was young now and without all the economic baggage we acrue there would only be two rational responses: nihilism/head in the sand (of which we’re seeing a lot of) or directed rage against the destroyers of our Earth, of which we’re seeing very little and I don’t know why. I can see a time when an Earth movement akin to daesh arises in defence of Earth.

    Reply
    • There are an amazing number of negative impacts. Would make for a good article, I think.

      Reply
      • Thanks Robert, well I can send you the links/articles if you rpovide me with a link. Some themes / topics I’ve found:
        Pollen allergen amplification.
        Mycorrhizae growth depression.
        Reduced transpiration leading to > soil moisture, and possibly shallower roots from more available soil water.
        Shifted seed maturity rates in grasses.
        Altered protein development in plants.
        Elevated CO2 mat bepress or accelerate some C4 plants (many serious weeds).
        Increased loss of N from land leading to water pollution.

        Also I can’t prove it but it seems there are more shallow slope failures (at least in my small part of the world) this year.

        Reply
        • Thanks so much Nigel. Please post what you feel comfortable with in the open forum. What you think might be good to share. If this is an individual research project and you want to keep some or all under hat, then it’s more than fair.

          My email is mithorden@yahoo.com. Please let me know when you have it so I can delete.

          Best wishes,

          R

      • Hi Robert
        I have tried to restrict to references that deal with eCO2 only and avoid warming related aspects. I have full-text pdfs of all below, usually with my own markups and annotations. I can provide a link to my dropbox if you ask as I have your email. Info in square brackets is the test CO2ppm, plus a short takeaway message. Meta means the paper is a meta-analysis rather than research per se.

        Pollen allergen amplification:
        Rising CO2 and pollen production of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a known allergy-inducing species: implications for public health. Lewis H. Ziska and Frances A. Caulfield. Aust. J. Plant Physiol. , 2000, 27 , 893–89. [CO2 600ppm]

        Global (and local) N balance and mycorrhizas – Mycorrhizae growth depression (important as mycos hold ~10% soil phosphate and are primary nutrient interface for most plants).
        Fitter, A.h., Heinemeyer, A.,. and Staddon, P.l. 2000. The impact of elevated CO2 and global climate change on arbuscular mycorrhizas: a mycocentric approach. New Phytol. (2000), 147, 179-187.[Explores complexity of the topic]

        Increased loss of N and P from land leading to algal blooms and eutrophication:
        Newton, P.C.D., Allard, V., Carran, R.A. and Lieffering, M. 2006. Impacts of elevated CO2 on a grassland grazed by sheep: the New Zealand FACE experiment. [CO2 475ppm – Seven year experiment. N loss > 18%, Measureable P loss, temporal increase in soil water]

        Leakey, Ainsworth, Bernacchi, Rogers, Long, Ort. 2009. Elevated CO2 effects on plant carbon, nitrogen, and water relations: six important lessons from FACE. Journal of Experimental Botany, Vol. 60, No. 10, pp. 2859-2876.
        (“Stomatal conductance (gs) is lower at elevated CO2”) [water use at both leaf and canopy scales declines at eCO2, the [CO2] ‘fertilization’ effect in FACE studies on crop plants is less than expected ]

        Wright, R.F. 1998. Effect of Increased Carbon Dioxide and Temperature on Runoff Chemistry at a Forested Catchment in Southern Norway (CLIMEX Project). Ecosystems (1998) 1: 216–225.[CO2 560ppm].

        Adair, E.C., E.S., Reight, P.B., Trost, J.R., Hobboe, S. 2011. Elevated CO2 stimulates grassland soil respiration by increasing carbon inputs rather than by enhancing soil moisture. [CO@ ppm – Soils stay wetter for longer (this would normally result in colder soils and delayed plant growth, esp. in spring)]

        Shifted seed maturity dates in grasses:
        Elevated atmospheric CO2 alters heading date of perennial ryegrass B.R. MAW, C.S. JONES, P.C.D. NEWTON and J. H.B. HATIER AgResearch Ltd, Grasslands Research Centre, Tennent Drive, Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand [CO2
        500ppm]

        Human and animal nutrition:
        Depressed protein and trace-element levels in plants [Mn, Zn]
        Effect of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the global threat of zinc deficiency: a modelling study Samuel S Myers, K Ryan Wessells, Itai Kloog, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz. Lancet Glob Health 2015; 3: e639-45.
        [CO2 550ppm – 138M people at risk of Zn deficiency, including 3.3M in Europe]

        Irakli Loladze. 2014. Hidden shift of the ionome of plants exposed to elevated CO2 depletes minerals at the base of human nutrition.
        [Meta analysis – shows that eCO2 reduces the overall mineral concentrations by 8%, and increases the starch and sugars:minerals > carbon:minerals in C3 plants – Loladze’s work is interesting as he has had a lot of roadblocks against his research, especially in the US].

        Weeds and invasive species.
        Ziska, L.H. 2003. Evaluation of the growth response of six invasive species to past, present and future atmospheric carbon dioxide. Journal of Experimental Botany, Vol. 54, No. 381, pp. 395±404, January 2003. [CO2 719ppm – these six species are some of the worst in food-growing systems – 40 to 110% increase in biomass].

        Reply
  24. – Koch Brothers Woo Hispanic Voters With Turkeys and Questionnaires

    MIAMI — The crowd that lined up around a megachurch here last week — largely Hispanic and mostly poor — came for the Saturday services, but also for the free flu shots that were being offered in the church, and for the Thanksgiving turkeys being given away just outside.
    From Our Advertisers

    But before they received their turkeys, those in line were asked to answer a few questions: Were they more likely to vote for a Republican or a Democrat in the 2016 presidential election? And did they feel that the government should increase or decrease federal spending in order to improve the economy?

    Volunteers, holding clipboards and speaking mainly in Spanish, collected the names, telephone numbers and email addresses of everyone who showed up.

    The approach — a free Thanksgiving turkey in exchange for some personal information — captures the mission of Libre, a multimillion-dollar effort financed by the conservative billionaire Kochs and devoted to winning over Hispanics, with the message that economic freedom and smaller-government principles will yield opportunity and prosperity.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/26/us/politics/libre-backed-by-the-kochs-aims-to-raise-gop-standing-with-hispanics.html

    Reply
  25. – “Oil Money Flows Towards Political Power”

    Meet Jeffery Hildebrand, the Texas Oil Billionaire Who Wants to Drill in the Arctic

    Royal Dutch Shell may have recently scrapped its plans to drill for oil in the Chukchi Sea, but the oil industry has not given up its designs on the Arctic Ocean’s fossil fuels. In September, Houston-based company Hilcorp submitted a plan to develop and produce oil from the Liberty prospect in the Beaufort Sea off the north coast of Alaska. If the Obama administration approves Hilcorp’s plan it will mark a dubious milestone: the first oil produced entirely from federal waters in the Arctic Ocean.

    Hilcorp is not a household name like Shell or Exxon, but it has quietly grown to become one of the largest privately held oil and gas companies in the United States. Billionaire founder, chairman and CEO Jeffery D. Hildebrand regularly cracks the list of the 100 richest Americans and is a major funder of Republican politicians.

    Founded in 1989, Hilcorp has been a big player in the recent fracking boom and has pushed the envelope on aggressive tactics to extract oil.
    http://www.desmogblog.com/2015/11/27/meet-jeffery-hildebrand-texas-oil-billionaire-who-wants-drill-arctic

    Reply
  26. – Citizen journalists, activists, and bloggers are integral to any modern effort to inform and engage the citizenry on important issues that many others want left uncovered.
    The words, and ethics in this video of brave people under an existential treat are worth a look, and listen.

    Citizen journalists capture life in Raqqa under Islamic State
    http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-34933679

    Reply
  27. Colorado Bob

     /  November 27, 2015

    Coal CEO Thanks Lamar Smith, Asks Him to Expand Probe of Climate Scientists

    In recent remarks Robert E. Murray, the chief executive officer of Murray Energy, the largest privately-held coal mining company in America, enthusiastically praised Rep. Lamar Smith, R-Tex., the chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, for leading an investigation into prominent climate scientists and environmental officials.

    Murray, speaking at a gathering in Austin last week for global warming deniers organized by the Texas Public Policy Foundation, said he wanted to “congratulate” Smith on his subpoena of Kathryn Sullivan, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    Murray then declared that the American Meteorology Association and Union of Concerned Scientists, two private nonprofits that serve the scientific community, also “need to be investigated.”

    “They’re crony capitalists, they’re making a fortune off of you the taxpayer,” said Murray, who stood up to praise the Texas congressman again on the next day of the conference. After receiving the second round of compliments, Smith thanked the coal executive and took a seat next to him.

    Watch Murray’s remarks below:

    Link

    Reply
  28. Colorado Bob

     /  November 27, 2015

    Microsoft’s Bill Gates to start multi-billion-dollar clean technology initiative: Report

    NEW YORK/PARIS: Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates will launch a multi-billion-dollar clean energy research and development initiative with heads of state on Monday, the opening day of the U.N. climate change summit in Paris, the French government said Friday.

    Gates and a group of developing and developed countries will launch the Clean Tech Initiative, in which countries will commit to doubling their clean energy technology research and development budgets by 2020 and private investors ..

    Read more at:

    Link

    Reply
  29. For DT: citizen scientists documenting plant life and its changing patterns of growth….

    As part of a program called “Project BudBurst,” citizen scientists are observing a variety of plants and entering their field notes online – for example the dates that a lilac starts to bud out, leaves appear, and when the flowers emerge.

    http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2015/11/project-budburst/

    Reply
    • – Thank you, Maria.
      Good stuff here, “Every plant tells a story.” Indeed.

      -Urban flowers and petals, stain and decay among algae moss in #Portland, OR.
      View this slowly as one would gaze upon a full scale (climate) diorama.

      Reply
  30. Colorado Bob

     /  November 28, 2015

    Rapid plankton growth in ocean seen as sign of carbon dioxide loading
    What these findings mean remains to be seen, however, as does whether the rapid growth in the tiny plankton’s population is good or bad news for the planet.

    Published Thursday in the journal Science, the study details a tenfold increase in the abundance of single-cell coccolithophores between 1965 and 2010, and a particularly sharp spike since the late 1990s in the population of these pale-shelled floating phytoplankton.

    “Something strange is happening here, and it’s happening much more quickly than we thought it should,” said Anand Gnanadesikan, associate professor in the Morton K. Blaustein Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Johns Hopkins and one of the study’s five authors.

    Read more at:
    Link

    Reply
    • Interesting… We’ve been tracking these blooms here. If this is a response to high CO2, it may be one of the Earth System signals for a changing world ocean. On the other hand, it appears these microbes, long term, cycle CO2 out of the Earth atmosphere and upper ocean. Long term being tens of thousands of years.

      Reply
  31. Colorado Bob

     /  November 28, 2015

    El Niño déjà vu or something new?

    This visualization shows side by side comparisons of Pacific Ocean sea surface height (SSH) anomalies of what is presently happening in 2015 with the Pacific Ocean signal during the famous 1997 El Niño. These 1997 and 2015 El Niño animations were made from data collected by the TOPEX/Poseidon (1997) and the OSTM/Jason-2 (2015) satellites. Image credit: NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory

    Link

    Reply
    • Thanks for posting this graphic, Bob. Looks to me like the 2015 El Niño produces both more persistent and widespread heat at the surface when compared to 1997. North Pacific, in particular, is much warmer due to combined positive PDO and human forced warming.

      Reply
  32. Colorado Bob

     /  November 28, 2015

    Cold warning from Antarctica’s past

    If all of it melted, the EAIS would contribute an equivalent of around 50 metres of sea level rise – the vast majority of the total 58 metres that could come from the continent.

    A New Zealand-led study published overnight in the journal Nature Communications has now shed further light on this potential.

    By studying rocks at different elevations beside the East Antarctic sheet, the research team concluded that a period of rapid glacier thinning occurred in the recent geological past, and persisted for several centuries.

    Link

    Reply
    • Will get my hands on this study. Recent Geological past being the Pliestocene periods of interglacials. I wonder if they’re talking about the Eemian.

      Reply
  33. Article at WP about how warmer climate is bringing diseases with it…

    “The warmer the planet gets, the more pathogens and vectors from the tropics and sub-tropics are going to move into the temperate zones,” Brooks said. “Countries such as the United States tend to have a false sense of security, but vectors and pathogens don’t understand international boundaries. You can’t just put a fence to keep them out.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2015/11/27/disease/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_disease933pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

    Reply
    • Another overall stress to human civilizations coming from climate change. All part of the gradual ratcheting effect.

      Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  November 28, 2015

      “Biology is notoriously nonlinear and full of thresholds beyond which all hell breaks loose, at least for a while,” said Daniel R. Brooks, an evolutionary biologist and senior research fellow at the University of Nebraska’s Manter Laboratory of Parasitology. “Think of a heart attack as an analogy. You can feel pretty good right up the point that you die.”

      Reply
  34. LAM78

     /  November 28, 2015

    Dear Mr Scribbler, how has the situation in Sao Paulo emerged during the last couple of months? Is the situation still as bad, worse or somewhat better? Long time since I saw a post of the situation there🙂

    Another thing of interest is when we’ll see a sharp rise in the tropospheric temperature. so far, I don’t think such one have been marked. Should see some decent signs soon I believe.

    Best, LAM

    Reply
    • The situation in São Paulo remains touch and go. It appears to be not quite so bad as last year. But information from Saesop at this time is rather less transparent than it has been in the past. Of more concern this year is an expansion of low water levels into to Rio system.

      Overall, it appears that much of Brazil is now dealing with a severe water scarcity situation. One that many considered unimaginable just a decade ago. Will see if I can put together a good update.

      Reply
    • Also worth noting that we are, at this time, seeing a slow motion mass migration away from São Paulo. If the trend continues, loss of water there may well be considered a city killer —

      http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/11/22/455751848/as-brazils-largest-city-struggles-with-drought-residents-are-leaving

      Reply
      • That move-out in particular isn’t a very good example of “moving for water”. Jundiaí is a sattelite-city to São Paulo, and a LOT of people live there and work in São Paulo (I’m doing something similar, living in Mairiporã and working in São Paulo. When house-searching, before news of the drought were common, I actually looked up places in Jundiaí, but the place is far too expensive). It’s like living in Jersey and working in New York, in american terms (or maybe I should say living in the Hamptons. Jundiaí is VERY expensive, specially in the closed condominiuns of the city). People move for the quality of life, and that has been happening for at least 50 years in São Paulo. It started with the Morumbi (still in São Paulo’s official borders), went to Alphaville (that was all the rage when I was in my 10s), and now places in vogue are Jundiaí (also nearby to the regional center of Campinas, where most of our technology industry is) and Cotia. Two hours in transit each way around here are “normal” (São Paulo itself is big and congested, so I, who live in Mairiporã, usually take less time to drive to work than coleagues that live in Vila Mariana, a neighboorhood in São Paulo.).

        The reservoirs in São Paulo are recovering somewhat (still in the dead volume, but rising faster than in the last rain season), as this rain season is being extraordinarily rainy (heavy showers almost daily since the middle of October here in Mairiporã. Other recharge areas of our reservoirs are getting similar heavy rains). That big El Ninõ, for us, was a gift, as rains here in Southeast Brasil are always stronger when the El Nino is on. São Paulo will probably last a while longer, and the water emergency now is in Minas Gerais, where Rio Doce is no longer able to be used for water supplies (water trucks are actually going from São Paulo to Minas these days. Yes, our reservoirs aren’t in the green side yet, but theirs has been destroyed entirely).

        And the Rio Doce tragedy will probably have climate feedback effects also. The mud is now covering the calcareum algae of São Matheus Maritime Province, causing massive diebacks of those algae, which are one of the most massive carbon reservoirs in Brasil (it’s one of the biggest calcareum algae reservoirs in the world).

        The link bellow, in Portuguese, gives more details:
        http://www.ruschicolibri.com.br/algas_calcareas.php

        Reply
        • El Niño, in turn, is hitting your rainforest hard, setting the stage for the next drought. Cantariera is still below its old dead pool and the reports I have coming in show water rationing as well. Jundiai, whatever else you may want to call it, is a water haven, and obviously an exclusive one.

      • I´m sorry, I guess I didn´t express myself well. I known that things aren´t well, and also that they´re probably going to get worst, and I probably sounded like too high in hopium in the last comment. Cantareira is still in the dead pool and rationing is still going on (it´s quickly turning into the new normal, as people change their routines to adapt to it).

        But things are feeling a tiny bit better here in São Paulo (São Paulo specifically, not the rest of Brasil) because of El Nino rains right now. Those are illusory, and the bigger end prognostic is doom, but at this moment reservoirs are going up, and the city will probably have one year of respite, which may buy us time for recovering a few more springs with reforestation. I´ve been working with ONGs that do that for a few years now, and in this last year finding funding and areas to reforest has beemn easier, as public mood is being turned. So that´s where part of my hopium comes from.

        And I guess most of my discordane is because, well, maybe some people are moving out of São Paulo because of lack of water, but I don´t see that neither in the statistics (São Paulo´s number of migrants is in the negative side, but it has been there since the middle 90´s and the number of migrants entering the city rose last year.) neither annedotically (while I do known a fair number of migrants, both people that have come to São Paulo and people who left it and Brasil, I don´t known anyone that left São Paulo because of lack of water. That article is the only place I´ve seen that mentioned). Maybe it´s because smarter people are making the move first, but the feeling here (at least for me, this is a big city and maybe in other circles that is being discussed) is more like stunned complacency and denial.. Like people buying beachside property in Miami (and actually, I known at least three people that have done that in the last five years, unfortunatelly. Maybe I known too many dumb people).

        I have seen people mentioning in fear what would we do if the water runs out, and I have started that conversation a few times. I have seem a lot of people finding ways to adapt, to use less water, to catch rain water, to reuse laundry water, and since I already had a rain-catching to potable water system before the drought, I have been approached from a lot of people searching advice on how to make theirs (sometimes in very nonsensical situations like ” your bank manager said that you have a rain catching system, and I go to the same bak, how can I make one for my house).

        But I haven´t seen people moving out the city (more than a few moving out country, but not in the last year), specially because it isn´t just São Paulo. Northeast Brasil (the whole Northeast) is in worst shape than we are right now. A huge portion of Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo just got destroyed (it´s the only way to describe what happened). Things are bad here, but are worst all around.

        Reply
        • Well, I was just pointing out that you’re not out of the woods yet. And, unfortunately, the long term trend doesn’t look too hot. No need for apologies. I absolutely value the on the ground assessments.

    • wili

       /  November 28, 2015

      LAM, there has indeed been a sharp rise in troposphere temps in the last few months. Are you looking at some sites that are suggesting otherwise?

      The situation in Brazil is getting much less coverage in the MSM than it deserves.

      Reply
  35. Syd Bridges

     /  November 28, 2015

    I suspect that we have passed the 400 ppm of CO2 for the next millennium or two at the very least, and the longer the polluters control politics, the longer that time will be. Yet another step on the road to the Anthropocene Extinction. One can only hope that, if nature experiments with high intelligence again, it will produce a species rather more deserving of the Earth than Hom. sap. sap.

    Reply
    • We’ve probably set off enough feedbacks to keep CO2 levels that high without intervention on the part of humans to draw down atmospheric CO2. A small amount of forcing due to changes in the angle at which the sun hits the upper and middle Latitudes is enough to add 100+ ppm CO2 to the Earth atmosphere through feedbacks. I think it’s pretty conservative to say we’ve added enough forcing at this time to at least maintain the currently elevated levels for many thousands of years even if we halt emissions now. To draw down CO2 we need an active effort on the part of human beings to change land use.

      Perhaps, if we went cold turkey on fossil fuel burning in just a few years, and radically changed the way we farm then there might be enough added slack in the carbon sinks to pull us again below 400 ppm but the added heat in the 380 to 390 range would probably produce at least a moderate global feedback from carbon stores.

      Reply
    • Storm tracks in both oceans are looking very strong at the moment. We have a storm set for Isle of Mann, UK, tomorrow with 70 mph winds. There will probably be quite a bit of this on tap for the coming winter. Sections of Coastal BC to get 8+ inches of rain from severe coastal storms over the next 5-7 days. Huge swells plowing across the NE Pacific.

      Reply
  36. James Burton

     /  November 28, 2015

    I made a long distance car trip over Thanksgiving across parts of the Northern Great Plains. What did I most notice on my journey across the wind swept plains? I think you already know! I saw a dozen large smoke stacks from coal fired power plants, and cooling towers from a nuclear plant, but I only saw one certifiable wind power generator. Even though I saw plenty of empty ridges crying out for wind power farms.
    What makes me sensitive to this is my connections to Sweden and Denmark, where I have visited family since the 80’s. The expansion of wind there has been steady and dramatic, with the new farms going out into the shallow seas from Britain and along Scandinavian coasts. They just keep growing, Denmark, Sweden and Germany are leading a revolution in growth.
    I saw nothing, I mean nothing to encourage me on my Mid Western trip. In fact, I saw a series of ideal ridges in empty marginal farm lands that had 5 frack sand mines built into them, along with a spur railroad built to service them, yet not a one wind power generators in sight, when I saw easy room for 200 of them!
    We all know fossil fuel’s capture of congress, and like the last post before this, the war on alternative energy.
    My own home town is ideal for wind power, with steady north east and north west winds hitting a high ridge above Lake Superior. Had this been Sweden, there would now be 20 large wind turbines there, but this is American, and there are zero!
    Really, what is our excuse? I still see media ridicule wind and solar. I bet that media is paid to do it, via the advertising dollars of fossil fuels. Just like fossil fuels got to Scientific American in the 90’s and got them to tome down Global Warming stories by 90%. Shameless!

    Reply
    • It’s absolutely shameless, Syd. We have so much in the way of resources that we’re not currently putting to use. Resources that are by far and away so much less destructive than the ones so many now keep fighting to tap and unleash. The challenge before us is enormous. But the main problem, as ever, is human ignorance and greed.

      Reply
      • Ryan in New England

         /  November 30, 2015

        More than ever, these communities remain ignorant about their own best interests, and will continue to vote against them because they hate gays, non-whites and abortions. It’s a sad, sad situation.

        Reply
    • I drove across the same area this month, Syd. Was expecting to see more wind turbines compared to my last trip.

      Reply
    • To add: from where I sit, because of the propaganda, individuals and their communities are not inclined to learn new skills to prepare for the transition. And so they continue with what they’ve known for several generations. Without the education re: what the problem is to sleuth through their media waves and the education/support to learn to new skills, I don’t see how we can get these remote communities on board…This is where government has to step in, imo.

      Reply
  37. – Rain forests Brazil – One iconic photo (9/32 photos).

    – dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3335766/Destruction-Brazils-Amazon-forest-

    ‘Devastated landscape: Cows are seen in this aerial view on a deforested plot of the Amazon rainforest. The destruction of Brazil’s Amazon forest, the world’s largest intact rainforest, jumped by 16 per cent in 2015 from a year ago’
    – Reuters

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  November 30, 2015

      Every year things get worse. I’m really starting to feel deep down that we won’t turn this thing around. And if we do change our ways, it’ll be far too late, when we are forced to change because the world’s systems have broken down and collapsed.

      Reply
  38. – Paris Obama.

    [ “Selling… down the river.” Is a term from US slave trading. “Down the [Mississippi] river”, usually meant to the more harsh and ruthless slavers in New Orleans. You did not want to go there if you were a black slave.]

    Prominent climate scientist offers scathing critique of Obama’s Paris plans
    James Hansen says President selling “our children, and theirs, down the river.”

    Three days before the beginning of a critical international climate conference in Paris, one of the world’s most famous climate scientists, James Hansen, has written a withering criticism of President Obama’s approach.

    The Paris meeting will be attended by the heads of state of more than 130 countries, including Obama. Heading in, the United States has adopted a policy of calling for each country to set limits on carbon dioxide emissions, and will push for the adoption of technology to capture and store carbon dioxide. That approach, Hansen wrote in a new letter posted on his web site, “is so gross, it is best described as unadulterated 100 percent pure bullshit.”
    http://arstechnica.com/science/2015/11/prominent-climate-scientist-offers-scathing-critique-of-obamas-paris-plans/

    Reply
  39. – The Guardian ” collapsing levees, buckling irrigation canals”:

    The Central Valley is sinking: drought forces farmers to ponder the abyss

    As people dig ever deeper to find water, nearly 1,200 square miles of California is sinking 2 inches a month – destroying roads, bridges and farmland in the process

    On a day when the skies were ashen from the smoke of distant wildfires, Chase Hurley kept his eyes trained on the slower-moving disaster at ground level: collapsing levees, buckling irrigation canals, water rising up over bridges and sloshing over roads.

    This is the hidden disaster of California’s drought. So much water has been pumped out of the ground that vast areas of the Central Valley are sinking, destroying millions of dollars in infrastructure in the gradual collapse.
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/nov/28/california-central-valley-sinking-farmers-deepwater-wells?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+USA+-+Version+CB&utm_term=140314&subid=8553955&CMP=ema_565b

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  November 28, 2015

      In some parts of the valley, however, the land is sinking at a rate of 2in (5cm) a month. About 1,200 square miles, roughly bounded by interstate 5 and state route 99, is collapsing into what scientists describe as a “cone of depression”.

      Now there’s a phrase for our times. Because even if snow pack is 200 % this year the pumping is a man made event, and it will continue.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  November 28, 2015

        ” Looks like Manifest Destiny wasn’t all it was cracked up to be.”

        From the comments of – The Guardian ” collapsing levees, buckling irrigation canals”:

        Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  November 28, 2015

        ” Just price water appropriately, NOT on linear scale, all that does is allow the wealthy to waste and penalises the less well off inequitably. The first couple megalitres, quite cheap (drinking and showering etc) then double the price for the next megalitre, then double it again for the one after that and keep doubling it for every megalitre. The ‘Wet Prince of Bel Air’ will soon stop even his use, the bill will be astronomical, as it should be.”

        We should adopt the same philosophy on CO2 emissions.

        samiamnotaus in the comments of this article –

        Reply
  40. Colorado Bob

     /  November 29, 2015

    The Global Economy Is A Ponzi Scheme: Black Friday, The Pope And The Paris Climate Talks

    by Joe Romm

    Black Friday has become an orgiastic celebration of unbridled consumerism.

    Last year, the Pope warned world leaders that “unbridled consumerism” was assaulting the natural environment “and this will have serious consequences for the world economy.” In his powerful June climate encyclical, the Pope went further, writing of “extreme consumerism” and “compulsive consumerism” and “an unethical consumerism bereft of social or ecological awareness.”

    The “pace of consumption,” the Pope asserts, “can only precipitate catastrophes.” Francis offered this blunt warning:

    “Obsession with a consumerist lifestyle, above all when few people are capable of maintaining it, can only lead to violence and mutual destruction.”

    Link

    Reply
  41. Colorado Bob

     /  November 29, 2015

    Night all –

    The Band – The Last Waltz – Full Concert – 11/25/76 – Winterland (OFFICIAL)

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  November 29, 2015

      One more thing –
      The first George Lucas movie was THX 1138, starring Robert Duvall .

      Duvall ………. THX 1138, stops taking his meds .

      A distant dystopian world , where humans live underground. In the movie, there are confessional booths. Where the drugged members of this world can ask for help.
      An image of Jesus comes on the screen , they pour out their feelings. The image says, “Yes, yes, I understand” after every comment. At the end of the session An image of Jesus says,
      “Blessings of the state, blessings of the masses, Buy more buy more now.”
      The first George Lucas movie.

      Reply
  42. Abel Adamski

     /  November 29, 2015

    A little off topic , well sort of.
    The problem with bringing meaningful action into play is actually comprehending the problem and the consequences and this comes down to the individual and their hard wiring and mental software.

    An interesting article about the mapping of the wiring of the brain and neurological systems that provides some pointers and in a way some hope as the younger generation will have far better mental capability to comprehend.

    http://www.gizmag.com/connectome-wiring-diagram-human-brain/39659/?li_source=LI&li_medium=default-widget

    If you grew up in a world where a megabyte is a big dataset, you probably have no hope of understanding the scale of a human connectome dataset. If you came of age this millennium, you’ll likely have a somewhat easier time of it, because your brain is wired differently, but Lichtman cautions that we may be crossing an important threshold in human development – not just in neuroscience or science more broadly, but in everything from politics to economics to religion.

    “The biggest casualty of big data is big ideas, in the sense that there are no big ideas that encompass the data any more,” he says. “The data is more complicated than the thoughts of most people.” There are too many variables and complex interactions for us to hold in our heads, basically.

    With the death of big ideas could come a fundamental change in the human experience, wherein we don’t understand and believe so much as steer the analyses and follow the data. What we’re looking at with big data is a division between understanding and analysis. We can simulate, model, and analyze with computers, but we can no longer be confident about understanding the results in their entirety.

    Emphasising
    What we’re looking at with big data is a division between understanding and analysis. We can simulate, model, and analyze with computers, but we can no longer be confident about understanding the results in their entirety.

    And therein lies the root of the deniersphere, easier to focus on Obama or taxes or simple ideology rather than admit being unable to comprehend

    Reply
  43. Tom Bond

     /  November 29, 2015

    Colorado Bob

    In Western Australia scheme water is priced exactly as you described.

    For the first 150KL the charge is $0.93 per KL (kilolitre or 1000 litres)
    For 151 – 350KL the charge is $1.72 per KL
    For 351 – 500KL the charge is $2.46 per KL
    Above 501KL the charge is $3.06 per KL

    The average use per household is 350KL and pensioners receive a 50% discount up to 350KL.

    Reply
  44. Kevin Jones

     /  November 29, 2015

    Listening to the reasoning which suggests 2016 may well surpass ’14 and ’15 as the third consecutive new record for global surface temps. Appears this would be the first time in NASA’s Land Ocean Temperature Index for three record hot years in a row.

    Reply
  45. bob ackley

     /  November 29, 2015

    I have a co2/ch4/h2o crds that measures in ppb. My work is mostly in the northeast area and have not seen ch4 below 400 ppm. My work is measuring mostly ch4 and when starting about 5 years ago the global ch4 was about 1.87 ppm and now is consistently above 1.9 ppm. Even more striking was a trip to southwestern PA where ch4 levels were consistently above 2.0 ppm. So as co2 levels rise…ch4 also appears to be rising….do you have any data?

    Reply
  46. – Reuters Paris COP21

    Police, protesters clash in Paris amid terrorism worries

    Sunday, November 29, 2015

    Demonstrators clash with CRS riot policemen near the Place de la Republique after the cancellation of a planned climate march following shootings in the French capital, ahead of the World Climate Change Conference 2015 (COP21), in Paris, France, November 29, 2015. REUTERS/Eric Gaillard

    http://s2.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20151129&t=2&i=1098534291&w=&fh=&fw=&ll=644&pl=429&sq=&r=LYNXMPEBAS0F4

    French President Francois Hollande accused the violent protesters of dishonoring the memory of the dead.

    “It’s doubly regrettable, I was even going to say scandalous,” Hollande told reporters in Brussels, where he was attending a European Union-Turkey summit.

    “Place de la Republique, where all these flowers have been put, these candles … in memory of those who fell under the bullets of the terrorists. (It is) also scandalous with regard to what is at stake at the climate conference, which is meant to let the world make decisions on the future of the planet.”

    Reply
    • #France: Police make arrests after repression of “banned” climate protests in #Paris. #COP21

      Reply
    • – David Fogarty ‏@FogartyClimate 2h2 hours ago

      Sea of shoes. More than 20,000 Parisiennes donated their soles in gesture after cancellation of #ClimateMarch

      Reply
      • redskylite

         /  November 29, 2015

        Thanks for sharing – Brilliant photo, effective message, worth a thousand words, includes Pope Francis’s plain black shoes and Ban Ki-moon’s best jogging shoes.

        Reply
      • Superlatives apply. Thanks DT..

        Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  November 30, 2015

      The entire aspect of violence breaking out is extremely suspect to me. I’ve never known an environmentalist or someone passionate about climate change to become violent during peaceful protests. And all the accused wore masks. Very reminiscent of the G8 meeting in Canada (and other protests), where it was later shown that undercover police officers had infiltrated the crowd, posed as protesters, and proceeded to destroy property and light cars on fire. This provided the excuse needed to escalate force and begin dispersing the crowd and proceeding with mass arrests.

      Reply
      • Griffin

         /  November 30, 2015

        Sabotage. Plain and simple. There is no other logical answer.

        Reply
      • Have to agree with you and Griff. First, anyone thinking strategically would realize that only peaceful protests are likely to have a positive impact on the conference. Second, the only people who benefit from violence of this kind would be the neo-liberal linked fossil fuel interests. Most likely, this is active agitation by people who aren’t in any way interested in the success of the climate movement and have more to gain from its failure. I’ve seen the same actions occur in the context of G8 and Occupy. Now the climate movement. I think it’s a pretty clear signal that the mainstream economic interests, whatever they say in speeches, are fighting any kind of climate action of real substance. Yet one more proof that they are as destructive and harmful a political/social/economic body as has ever existed. At least their smear campaign now has less cloaking than it otherwise would have — the Pope being among those half million peaceful protesters pushing for the global community to enact a plan that will actually prevent 2 C warming. A plan that would necessarily be extremely aggressive.

        Reply
      • Griffin

         /  December 1, 2015

        Thank you for the insight Robert. As I have thought more about this, the tactic of sending in the thugs to change the nature of a protest is an old but effective one that has regained favor of those in power. From Putin’s obvious involvement in the Maidan massacre to the suspected appearance Chinese police pretending to be protesters (and misbehaving) during the “umbrella uprising” in Hong Kong last year. Unfortunately, the tactic works in that it may brand a movement with an entirely different message than the one that the founders intended. Throw in a “right now” reporting media and an uneducated audience…you know how it goes.

        Reply
  47. A long, thorough piece on the boulders in Eleuthora, Bahamas that Dr. Hansen has studied/written about. In particular, Hearty points out that the tiny grains that constitute the boulder rocks are more strongly cemented together and less likely to crumble than other rocks nearby, a sign that the boulders are older than what’s beneath them.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2015/11/28/oceans/

    Reply
  1. Humankind’s Last Days Below 400 PPM CO2? | GarryRogers Nature Conservation and Science Fiction (#EcoSciFi)
  2. Que se passa na ciência climática, enquanto os outros olham para a COP21 Paris? | Aquecimento Global Descontrolado

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: