Monster El Nino Hurls 43+ Foot Waves at US West Coast

For NOAA, it looks like we’re well on the way toward seeing one of the most powerful El Ninos ever recorded. And already, there’s some brutal Fall and Winter weather events starting to emerge as a result. One event, in particular, is today roaring into the US West Coast like a Godzilla-hurled freight train.

It’s just one upshot of a Monster El Nino in a record warm world. A weather and climate event — one likely pumped up by an overall atmospheric warming of 1 C above 1880s levels — that will likely continue to have severe and worsening global impacts over the coming months.

image

(Ocean waves hit insane heights of 43 feet [13.2 meters] today as another powerful storm roars into the US West Coast. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

One of the 3 Strongest El Ninos On Record

NOAA’s September, October, November ONI Index, the key zone for measuring El Nino strength, hit a +2.0 degree Celsius positive anomaly this week. That’s just 0.3 C shy of the most powerful El Nino ever recorded — 1997-1998 which peaked out at +2.3 C in the same monitor. With October, November and December likely to show even hotter overall readings for the Central Equatorial Pacific, it appears that the 2015-2016 El Nino will strike very close to this ONI high mark. Peak weekly sea surface temperature values already exceeded top 1997-1998 temperature levels for NOAA (+2.8 C for 1997-1998 vs + 3.1 C for 2015-2016). So we wait on the ONI three month measure for October, November and December to give broader confirmation.

The other major El Nino monitor — the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) in Australia — has weekly sea surface temperatures peaking at +2.5 C in the same zone. This is 0.2 C short of peak 1997-1998 values. BOM notes that the current El Nino is near peak and that, according to its own measures, is unlikely to exceed 1997-1998 but will likely hit within the top 3 strongest events. According to BOM:

The 2015–16 El Niño is strong, and likely to rank in the top three events of the past 50 years. Presently, several key indicators fall short of their 1997–98 and 1982–83 values, both in the ocean (e.g. sub-surface temperatures, which have peaked around +8 °C this year, compared to +12 °C in 1997–98), and atmosphere (e.g. SOI, for which monthly values peaked around −20, while 1982–83 had several months at −30).

NOAA sea surface temperature anomalies

(NOAA Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature [SST] anomaly tracking appears to indicate that the 2015-2016 El Nino may have hit peak during mid November. Though a second peak is possible in December, atmospheric and ocean trends will tend to push for gradual SST cooling over the coming months. Overall, the 2015 to 2016 El Nino is likely to be among the top 3 strongest on record. A climate event that in a world warmed by 1 C above 1880s values has the potential to set off some very extreme weather over the coming months. Image source: NOAA SST Anoms 5N to 5S.)

Based on a reading of these two analysis by expert agencies, we revise our previous statements to come into line with NOAA and BOM forecasting. Though it’s still possible that 2015-2016 may exceed peak 1997-1998 intensity, it is more likely that the current El Nino will fall into the range of the top three most intense such events. This is likely due to the fact that El Nino has probably already peaked and that though some indicators show 2015 as exceeding 1997-1998 in intensity (NOAA weekly SST values), the broader, long-term indicators still rank 1997-1998 as the most intense in the modern record.

Potentially Very Severe Weather on The Way

That’s not to say that related weather events won’t be quite extreme. In some respects, hottest ever atmospheric and ocean temperatures on a global basis provide even more available energy for storms, heavy rainfall, droughts, and wildfires. Globally, the Earth has warmed by between 0.2 and 0.3 C from peak 1997-1998 atmospheric temperature values to those we are likely to experience during 2015 and 2016. That means rates of evaporation and precipitation have increased by about 2 percent overall. In addition, new climate instabilities have tended to arise due to increased rates of glacial melt, polar amplification (especially in the Northern Hemisphere), and related ocean surface warming along with the weakening of some of the major oceanic heat conveying currents.

A top 3 strongest El Nino firing off in this global climate environment is, therefore, not entirely the same creature as a Monster El Nino firing off during the 1980s or even the 1997-1998 El Nino. In particular, the added atmospheric moisture loading, the slowing down of the Gulf Stream off the US East Coast and related back-up of warm water in that region, and the added rates of evaporation due to overall warming of the Earth-Ocean system present potentially more severe drought hazards for regions like Brazil and Australia, potentially more severe extreme storm hazards for the US West Coast as the storm track ramps up, and potentially more severe Winter oceanic and coastal storm hazards for the US East Coast, the North Atlantic and the United Kingdom.

Disaster Officials Worry, Make Calls For Readiness

Federal disaster officials are keenly aware of these risks and have been issuing warnings for regions of the US West Coast since October. NOAA and FEMA bulletins have urged people to keep extra food and water on hand and to prepare for extended periods of sheltering in place during heavy rainfall, landslide, snowfall or coastal flooding events. Statements today continue to urge preparedness for what is likely to be a very extreme Winter weather season. In San Jose Mercury News, FEMA emergency manager Bob Fenton expressed his extreme concern today after a disaster preparedness drill in Sacramento:

“It is critical that citizens take the risk seriously. If you hear a warning to evacuate, act accordingly. People often want to ‘wait and see’ — but, please, don’t wait. Everything can be replaced, but your life can’t.”

The US Southwest and South-Central California are especially vulnerable to severe flooding events during strong El Ninos in the December, January, February timeframe. Such events can deliver powerful rivers of tropical moisture to this region. Called Pineapple Express, these atmospheric rivers can develop along an arc running from the Equator, through Hawaii and then terminating over the US Southwest. The most extreme of these events have the potential to deliver 200, 500, or 1000 year deluges resulting in many feet of rainfall for the Central Valley region. A situation that some researchers have called an Ark-Storm and have linked to the (likely El Nino-related) Great Flood of 1862.

In today’s context, we have one of the top 3 strongest El Ninos firing off in an atmosphere that, due to human forced warming in the range of 1 C, sees an overall 7-8 percent increase in the rate of evaporation (vs 1880s contexts) and precipitation. So any river of moisture that does develop may likewise become further engorged than was previously typical, thus resulting in more severe rain storms and a related heightened flood risk. It’s a risk, that in any case, FEMA disaster managers are taking very seriously.

43 Foot Waves off US West Coast

As officials issued warnings and FEMA managers drilled in Southern California, another powerful storm packing 60-80 mile per hour winds, heavy rains, and 43+ foot waves roared into the US West Coast this week. The 960 mb storm kicked off coastal flood, gale and storm warnings from Northern California through Washington State.

West Coast Storm

(Another powerful storm roars into the US West Coast bringing with it flooding rains, heavy surf, coastal storm surges, and mountain snows. The currently very strong El Nino is likely deliver more severe storms of this kind over the coming months. Image source: NOAA GOES.)

Interior flood warnings were also issued as between 4 and 18 inches of rain fell over the past 3 days with 2-4 inches more expected today. The event had already spurred over 9 landslides even as, according to the Weather Channel, more than two dozen river gauges had topped flood stage across Washington and Oregon. It’s a heavy soaking that began in November and just keeps getting worse with each new storm.

These storms are fueled by a powerful flood of heat and moisture boiling off the Godzilla El Nino in the Pacific. A dynamic that’s generating an extraordinarily powerful Pacific storm tack. This week, models predict another extreme storm — one that is expected to bomb out as a 930 mb monster packing 75 kt winds and 52+ foot waves in the Bering Sea between Russia and Alaska. And given the way El Nino is charging up the atmosphere, these Pacific beasts are bound to keep roaring on in.

 

Links:

Climate Prediction Center — Cold and Warm Episodes by Season

Monster 2015 El Nino May Be Most Intense Ever Seen

Earth Nullschool

Pacific Northwest Storm Parade to Bring Rain, Wind and Snow

NOAA SST Anoms 5N to 5S

Federal Officials Warn Californians to Prepare for Onslaught

NOAA GOES

NOAA Ocean Prediction Center — Pacific

Hat tip to DT Lange

 

 

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97 Comments

    • NWS OPC ‏@NWSOPC 5h5 hours ago

      12Z OPC E Pacific sea state analysis indicates seas up to 44 ft south of hurricane force low center.

      Reply
    • NWS OPC ‏@NWSOPC 21h21 hours ago

      OPC 96-hour Pacific forecasts valid 1200 UTC 12/13/15 w/intense 934hPa hurricane force low, 75 kt winds & 16 m seas!

      Reply
      • We have another strong storm battering the UK at this time. Thousands reported displaced by that event as well. The oceans are certainly firing off at the moment. It’s getting rough out there.

        Reply
  1. I’m on the front lines, and It’s getting a little scary!

    Reply
    • Hope you’re safe and have all the hatches battened. Were you there for the last big one (1997/1998)? How does this compare to your other rough weather experiences? In any case would love to hear from you as events emerge. Stay safe!

      Reply
      • I was living in Reno, Nevada during the 97-98 event which I described in detail in a comment posted to another article on this blog (a few months ago, maybe). That one was far worse, but this El Nino is just getting started. There could be big trouble ahead.

        Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  December 10, 2015

      I was living in Kiezer, Oregon in winter of 97′-98′. The Willamette came within a foot of over topping the dikes. With all the record fires up and down the West Coast , you have my thoughts this winter.
      What I’d like to know, are snow levels this winter. As the storms hit.

      If these storms come in, and it’s raining at 8,000 feet that’s one thing, if they come in and it’s raining at 5,000 feet, that’s whole other ball of wax.

      The models say the snow levels will rise. This winter will test that big time.

      Reply
      • Yes C.B., that’s the scenario that played out during the 97-98 event in the Sierra Nevadas. Early snows followed by a succession of warm storms (a.k.a. “pineapple express”) at high elevation deluged the river channels and turned much of Reno-Sparks into a lake several miles long. On the western slopes, the flooding wasn’t quite as bad, but the wind damage and erosion were very extensive – closing roads in some cases for weeks.

        Reply
  2. Meanwhile, Ted Cruz sits there on the other side of the country with his sickening smug grin running a charade of a hearing and calling sensible people “climate alarmists.”

    Reply
    • I wonder how Ted would feel if his only possible home of residence was coastal Bagladesh, or even Norfolk’s tidal basin, for that matter? I suppose Ted has somehow managed to rationalize his denial by thinking that he’ll somehow be able to profit from the trouble. It would be rather odd if he’s actually idiotic enough to believe the words coming from his own mouth.

      Reply
      • Kevin Jones

         /  December 10, 2015

        Excellent report, Robert Thanks. re: “It would be rather odd…..” “Be careful of what you pretend to be because you are what you pretend to be’ Kurt Vonnegut

        Reply
  3. Robert, a ‘robertscribbler’ ‘methane release off of E. Coast’ post was mentioned/quoted in today’s KBOO ‘Presswatch’ at about the 29 minute mark.
    http://kboo.fm/presswatchon121015

    Reply
  4. NWS Juneau ‏@NWSJuneau Dec 8

    With SE wind to 15 mph & gusts to 25 mph, temperature @ #Juneau Airport rose 10 degrees in an hour. #akwx #chinook

    Reply
  5. Colorado Bob

     /  December 10, 2015

    Remember this one the next time the “War on Coal” comes up, or the “Greedy Grant Writing Climate Scientists” gets trotted out.

    Lawmakers Call Out Coal Industry For Falsifying Job Numbers And Hiding Tax Data

    The criticism peaked at two congressional hearings Tuesday, the first of which featured former Montana Director of Revenue Dan Bucks, who has long criticized the coal industry for gaming the system to avoid royalties owed to taxpayers and shielding its finances from the public.

    “Coal companies have the true facts within their own records and it’s all secret, and secret to the American people,” Bucks said in response to a question from Representative Matt Cartwright (D-PA) on transparency and available data from the industry.

    Cartwright also said that coal operators are selling to subsidiary companies in what he described as a “sweetheart deal.”

    Link

    Reply
    • – Top to bottom — It’s a corrupt enterprise — as ruthless as any ‘Mafia’ gang. It always has been.

      Reply
  6. Colorado Bob

     /  December 10, 2015

    After Warmest Autumn on Record, December Mildness Sweeps Across U.S.

    Meteorological autumn (September – November) was the warmest in 121 years of recordkeeping for the 48 contiguous U.S. states, according to NOAA’s national wrapup of November and fall conditions released Wednesday morning. The national average of 56.8°F was a full 3.3°F above the 20th-century average and 0.2°F above the previous record of 56.6°F (Sep-Nov 1963). Only one state (Florida) had its warmest autumn on record, but the nation as a whole still came out on top because of the rare coast-to-coast nature of the warmth. Often, one part of the country will have a mild three-month period while another part is colder than average, as we saw dramatically this past winter with record warmth in the West and unusual chill in the East.

    This past autumn was also fairly damp on a national scale, with the 48 states recording their 15th wettest autumn. November came in on the mild and wet side for the contiguous U.S., ranking as the 13th warmest and 15th wettest November since records began in 1895.

    Link

    Reply
  7. PlazaRed

     /  December 10, 2015

    From the other side of the Atlantic to most of the poster’s on here I think.
    Its dry here in southern Spain, very very dry and the rest of the country is not getting much rain apart from up near the French boarder.
    The Sierra Nevada, (Spanish) mountains are devoid of snow, except where the snow machines have been making it for the ski people who go there in the winter to experience gravity and its effects.
    The north of Spain above the Bay of Biscay is a different story with a 45 degree atmospheric river coming from the Caribbean to about Norway, heaven or in fact Thor or anybody else help them in its path as its very wet to say the least with up to 13 inches of rain in a day along its path.
    Future north Iceland, although sparsely populated is normally prepared for bad conditions in winter but last weeks 160MPH wind more or less caught even then a bit of guard!

    I am fascinated about what is going on in the west coast of the North Americas and I am sure that its probably only an overture to what is to come.

    Thank you for the blog post and all its contents.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  December 10, 2015

      PlazaRed –

      Re : Iceland
      Yes, it’s these “Cold Hurricanes” that are going to be a real problem . Because they will pop up like mushrooms. Every fall and winter. And as you point out, if one is just a few kilometers South of this wandering line , drought

      “As the system nears a tipping point, it moves to the extremes. There it tends to get stuck , before wildly swing back to the other extreme.”

      Reply
      • PlazaRed

         /  December 10, 2015

        Colorado Bob
        I’m so glad I am not alone on or in this one.
        The way that the Atlantic moisture river is moving northwards is more than a cause for concern!
        if we get even a bit more of a shift of say another 5 degrees north then we might get the moisture river into the middle of Norway, or even more catastrophic, into Greenland, then its all the stops out for a big melt in a big way rapidly. As warm or even cool rain on snow and ice melts it very fast.
        The problem is, that as long as we think about it and imagine how it might go wrong, at the end of the day it looks like an awful lot of melting is going to occur in the next few years. So no point in beating about the bush! The big thaw is on the way even though the humans say they can stop it!
        Over to the humans for their say on how they re going to stop the THAW?

        Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  December 11, 2015

        PlazaRed
        Next month the the river of pain loop south into Spain.

        Reply
  8. Great piece again, Robert. The distinction of having even a strong El Nino in this new climate regime is really important. I live on the East Coast and have been taking a gander at the SSTs in the Gulf Stream. Is it just me, or are there now really cold anomalies to go along with the really warm off the coast near George’s Bank and New Foundland? Looks even more backed up than this summer. Climate Re-analyzer and Earth Nullschool show a ~18F swing in SST anamolies in pockets right next to each other. Thanks for the great work!

    Reply
    • Great observation there. That high T delta is a big deal. It hints at an abrupt termination of the northward propagating current even as it sets the stage for a pretty dramatic atmospheric instability and storm generation potential in the region of the gradient. It’s one of the reasons we keep seeing these big atmospheric bombs blow up in the North Atlantic. UK, France, Spain, Iceland in the firing line this year. U.S. East Coast too.

      Reply
  9. Wharf Rat

     /  December 10, 2015

    World leaders pledge to limit global warming to 1.5 C
    Published Thursday, Dec. 10, 2015 4:14PM EST

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/worlds-governments-pledge-to-limit-global-warming-to-15-c/article27693329/
    =
    Rat in Mendocino Co has been getting intermittent cloudbursts all day; 3 inches of rain last night. Last year, he had like 20 inches of rain from Black Fri to about 12/15, and then it all went away.

    Reply
    • Mark in New England

       /  December 11, 2015

      Our political saviors are going to limit warming to 1.5 C – hah – more like 15C long term😦

      Reply
      • To have any hope of hitting less than 1.5 C we need to be net carbon negative in a big way very soon. We’re nowhere near that now. And if governments still plan to build coal or gas plants. If governments still plan to have oil burning cars. If governments still plan to allow slash and burn agriculture. If governments still coddle industrial meat. If governments can’t figure out how to shrink to zero carbon emitting materials consumption. Then they don’t have a prayer of making 1.5 C. Sure 1.5 C should be the goal. But we need to be clear that the policy gap for hitting anywhere near that goal is enormous. Current policy and all the best commitments added in as it stands gets us to 2.7 to 5.7 C by end Century. And if conservative politicians around the world succeed in sabotaging those commitments we may be looking at as much as 7 C this Century.

        We’re at 485 ppm CO2e and 1 C now. Just maintaining that level probably hits around 1.7 C this Century. But we are still dumping 50 billion tons of CO2e gasses into the atmosphere each year. Raising that CO2e level by about 3 ppm each year. There’s just no way to reconcile that rate of GHG increase and the 1.5 or even 2 C goal. To hit that goal emissions must have stopped yesterday or we need net negative carbon emissions in a big way and soon.

        Reply
    • We will have to be both extraordinarily ambitious and extraordinarily lucky to we keep warming below 1.5 C. We’ve already hit +1 C and perhaps even a bit higher. It doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t do our best to shoot for below 1.5 C. It’s really the goal we should have had all along back in the 1980s and 1990s. But we should be clear that we’re fighting a very tough battle here and with CO2 at 400 ppm and CO2e at 485 ppm our collective backs are against the wall. We’re in the corner and it’s balls to the wall to get the hell out.

      Reply
  10. Rains Cut Into An Already Low Snowpack

    Scientists say the snowpack in northwest Oregon and the central Cascades decreased as much as eight inches after warm rain earlier this week fell at high elevations.

    “This decline in snowpack is not something we want to see,” said Julie Koeberle, a hydrologist with the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

    The snowpack in northwest Oregon is 27 percent of normal near Mount Hood and 42 percent of normal around Bend, Ore., she said.

    “Some of that is settling (snow), but a lot of it actually is melting because there’s not a lot of snow to begin with,” Koeberle said.
    http://www.opb.org/news/article/rains-cut-into-an-already-low-snowpack/

    Reply
    • Portland/Vanc/Salem Emergency Info for Thu. Dec. 10 – 1:30 pm

      … in the south east Quadrant of the City of Battle Ground experienced an extreme weather this morning, possibly a tornado. The City’s Emergency Operations Center has been activated and emergency crews, including police, fire, and public works are on scene to assess damage.

      Reply
    • This is a pretty amazingly big deal. It’s got flood and drought and water stress and a hundred other troubles written all over it. But worst of all it’s a prelude to Greenland and West Antarctica now and even East Antarctica if we push into the 500 to 600 ppm CO2e range.

      Reply
    • PlazaRed

       /  December 11, 2015

      According to the Spanish news I saw a couple of days ago, the only snow on the Spanish Sierra Nevada mountains which go up to about 11,000 feet high, is being made by snow making machines for skiing!
      They are normally covered in snow, sometimes right down to 2,000 feet in winter but with all the warm dry weather we are having there’s nothing much to see except bare rock.

      Reply
  11. Colorado Bob

     /  December 10, 2015

    Ted Cruz is the most pathological politician since Burr shot Hamilton at Weehawken New Jersey.

    Reply
  12. Colorado Bob

     /  December 10, 2015

    Well the there’s the finger prints . The snow line has jumped up the mountains.

    I got a dollar that says this pattern holds all winter. All over the West.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  December 10, 2015

      That’s a really big prediction of the hypothesis , snow lines all over the world will move up the mountains. The floods in Pakistan were in part so terrible because warm rain was falling on snow fields At 10,000 feet .
      I wrote a whole post on this.

      Warm rain.

      The winter used to come, snow fell. All winter long.

      Now rain, can fall at altitudes we never dreamed of in winter. And warm rain falling on snow, melts it in a heart beat.

      This is very big deal , for salmon, and the electric power grid .

      Reply
  13. Colorado Bob

     /  December 10, 2015

    I am so sorry I am such a jackass wild man. But these are the times when Jackass wild men. POP- UP.

    Reply
  14. utoutback

     /  December 10, 2015

    A message from the world’s Astronauts to the delegates of COP 21

    Reply
  15. wili

     /  December 10, 2015

    We had what felt exactly like an April shower most of the day today here in Minnesota. Near 50 F when average highs are right around freezing.

    Reply
  16. – The Intercept

    In Paris, Banks Pledge Cuts in Coal as Oil Financing Flows

    … Amsterdam-based ING Bank made one of the most straightforward commitments: It won’t invest in any more coal power plants, coal mines, or companies for which coal makes up more than half their business. But that doesn’t mean it’s going fossil free. I approached ING’s head of sustainability, Léon Wijnands, after a climate conference panel on sustainable finance to ask him what conditions would lead ING to divest from oil. He replied that ING “would not walk away from oil, because there is no alternative to oil.”

    https://theintercept.com/2015/12/09/in-paris-banks-pledge-cuts-in-coal-as-oil-finance-flows/

    Reply
    • You know, the same kind of thinking 20 years ago greatly delayed the deployment of wind and solar power. Apparently no-one at ING has heard of the Volt or Tesla or vehicle to grid or vehicle to home solar or second gen biofuels or the train or the bicycle or even fuel cells which are all now far, far more practical than oil which will inevitably wreck the world in which you live? On a cost basis alone, oil is crazy expensive compared to a gallon equivalent of electricity. What’s insane is that businessmen don’t seem to understand how that means opportunity writ large. Leon is an example of the dinosaur thinking that’s still driving us off the cliff. ING will have to dump oil eventually. But for pretty much all of us, sooner rather than later is the better choice.

      Reply
  17. – California — Kern County, part of the toxic salad bowl many eat from.

    December 10, 2015
    Bakersfield, CA —

    A broad coalition of community and conservation groups sued Kern County today for passing a new local law intended to bypass environmental review for oil and gas projects. The new county ordinance, sponsored by the oil industry and passed by the Kern County Board of Supervisors last month, purports to allow county officials to fast track permits for oil and gas activities without environmental review or public notice for a minimum of 20 years.

    http://earthjustice.org/news/press/2015/coalition-files-lawsuit-to-safeguard-kern-communities-from-flawed-oil-gas-drilling-amendment#

    Reply
  18. Colorado Bob

     /  December 11, 2015

    Ted Cruz has set me to thinking. He is running for president. I am old white man in a Mexican barrio .
    He was born in Canada. I want to see the reason why this is possible.

    Reply
    • Weir Bohnd

       /  December 11, 2015

      The notion of this old white man living in the Greater Hickistan region of Exceptionalistan is that since feriners seem to be qualified for every other job here, why should there be an exception for POTUS? McInsane was, one must assume, found under a rock in Panama. We got precedent. Lest we forget, all of the first litter of Prezzes were not born in the United States of America. A technicality I admit, but it’s still the truth.

      Reply
    • Wharf Rat

       /  December 11, 2015

      If you are born a broad ( or a guy; McCain was born in Panama) of 1 American parent, you are OK. The question is, “Were either of Cruz’s parents American?”

      Ted Cruz must show naturalization papers to keep his US Senate seat

      Details have been emerging which highly suggest that both Ted Cruz’s parents had become Canadian citizens prior to his birth. According to past public statements made by his father, legal opinions and documentation currently available, Rafael (Ted) Cruz was likely born of 2 Canadian citizens in Calgary back in December of 1970.

      http://www.examiner.com/article/ted-cruz-must-show-naturalization-papers-to-keep-his-us-senate-seat

      Reply
    • As long as your father’s not from Kenya and you’re not born in Hawaii, the right wing media will probably give you a pass. Apparently, Donald Trump is Time’s man of the year. Reading their current print copy is these days is like listening to Fox News. High risk of brain damage and Guaranteed to generate cognitive dissonance.

      Reply
  19. – Oklahoma USA
    EnergyFrackingFracking Wastewater

    Oklahoma Earthquakes: Bombshell Doc Reveals Big Oil’s Tight Grip on Politicians and Scientists

    “You almost feel like the ground is going to open up underneath of you or something. And then you think, ‘Am I losing my mind? This is the third one today and they’ve only reported one!’”

    This statement—captured in Al Jazeera America’s riveting new documentary Earthquake State—comes from an Oklahoma resident commenting on her state’s alarming earthquake boom.

    Al Jazeera America correspondent Josh Rushing and the Fault Lines team recently traveled to the state and spoke to several Oklahoma residents, seismologists, oil and gas industry officials, and lawmakers, including Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin, who has been slow to acknowledge the connection between the earthquakes and the oil and gas industry.

    https://ecowatch.com/2015/12/09/earthquake-state/

    Reply
  20. Colorado Bob

     /  December 11, 2015

    RS –

    Sorry for the bitching on the last thread. but after 7 days throw something up. We need proof of life.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  December 11, 2015

      RS –
      You built this, me, not DT. You built this. If you have a deep problem , Tell us. These long dark periods drive me crazy.

      Reply
    • Hey Bob. Just wanted to let you know that all is OK, just very busy at the moment. My wife and I recently moved and I think I’ve been moving and reorganizing our assorted pile of stuff for about a million years. We try to live light, but with gifts and holidays and just plain mail it can tend to pile up more than you realize until you actually move. To me, at this point, the term dematerialization sounds like bliss. In any case, I always think I can keep up my strong summer writing schedule during fall and winter. But I inevitably end up getting speaking engagements at schools or requests for talks that I have trouble saying no to. It doesn’t help, either, that I’m trying to complete a book by middle of next year while all at the same time not driving myself into the ground again.

      I’ll do my best to keep up a good pace, though, and I really appreciate your concerns.

      Reply
  21. Andy in SD

     /  December 11, 2015

    Islanders in Chesapeake Bay Face Exile From Rising Seas

    Islanders in the middle of the Chesapeake Bay could be among the first “climate change refugees” in the continental United States as rising seas claim their historic fishing village, a report released Thursday concludes.

    http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/islanders-chesapeake-bay-face-exile-rising-seas-35690798?nfo=/desktop_newsfeed_ab_refer_homepage

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  December 11, 2015

      They are sinking, and the sea is rising. You have diabetes , and the doctor telll’s you have lung cancer.

      Reply
  22. Colorado Bob

     /  December 11, 2015

    RS –

    They are trying to “monetize” you.

    Reply
  23. Colorado Bob

     /  December 11, 2015

    Bob Marley – Get Up, Stand Up Lyrics
    Get up, stand up, stand up for your right
    Get up, stand up, stand up for your right
    Get up, stand up, stand up for your right
    Get up, stand up, don’t give up the fight

    Preacher man don’t tell me heaven is under the earth
    I know you don’t know what life is really worth
    Is not all that glitters in gold and
    Half the story has never been told
    So now you see the light, aay
    Stand up for your right. Come on

    Get up, stand up, stand up for your right
    Get up, stand up, don’t give up the fight
    (Repeat)

    Most people think great God will come from the sky
    Take away ev’rything, and make ev’rybody feel high
    But if you know what life is worth
    You would look for yours on earth
    And now you see the light
    You stand up for your right, yeah!

    Get up, stand up, stand up for your right
    Get up, stand up, don’t give up the fight
    Get up, stand up. Life is your right
    So we can’t give up the fight
    Stand up for your right, Lord, Lord
    Get up, stand up. Keep on struggling on
    Don’t give up the fight

    We’re sick and tired of your ism and skism game
    Die and go to heaven in Jesus’ name, Lord
    We know when we understand
    Almighty God is a living man
    You can fool some people sometimes
    But you can’t fool all the people all the time
    So now we see the light
    We gonna stand up for our right

    So you’d better get up, stand up, stand up for your right
    Get up, stand up, don’t give up the fight
    Get up, stand up, stand up for your right
    Get up, stand up, don’t give up the fight

    Reply
    • NWS OPC ‏@NWSOPC 9h9 hours ago

      GOES-W visible image & 18Z OPC analysis w/E Pacific hurricane force low, & intensifying low near 170W en route to BC

      Reply
  24. -WaPo VW
    Business
    VW staff began working on cheat in 2005 to break into U.S. market

    By David Rising and Kerstin Sopke December 10 at 7:35 PM

    A small group of Volkswagen engineers began working as early as 2005 on emissions cheating software after they were unable to find a technical solution to U.S. emissions controls as the automaker pushed into the North American market, the carmaker’s executives said Thursday.

    The company in September admitted to cheating on U.S. diesel emissions tests with the help of software installed in engines. The software was built into 11 million cars globally, about 500,000 of which were in the United States, from 2009 to 2015.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/vw-staff-began-working-on-cheat-in-2005-to-break-into-us-market/2015/12/10/f710536e-9f91-11e5-a3c5-c77f2cc5a43c_story.html

    Reply
  25. – Algae blooms California 120815

    Toxic algae close Livermore’s Lake Del Valle to swimming

    “In the 80-year history of the park district, they’ve had zero toxic blooms, and then in the past two or three years, they’ve had a bunch,” she said. “The thinking is that it’s somehow related to drought conditions.”
    http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Toxic-algae-close-Livermore-s-Lake-Del-Valle-to-6685342.php

    Reply
  26. Colorado Bob

     /  December 11, 2015

    Well I just got banned for 71 hours. At WU. My sin was asking if BS and bull shit are 2 different things. Plus there are like 14 moderators there. I when after that pretty hard. I hope IBM fires most of them. I told then that as well.

    They used to ban me for 72 hours. I’m making progress.

    Reply
  27. wili

     /  December 11, 2015

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/12/10/the-paris-climate-accords-will-cause-the-planet-to-burn/

    The Paris Climate Accords Will Cause the Planet to Burn

    “The Paris agreement, according to Pablo Solón, a veteran of climate negotiations, “will be an agreement that will burn up the planet.”

    The result of the COP21 (Twenty-first United Nations Climate Change Conference), which began on Monday, Nov. 30 and will end on Dec. 11, “can already be announced, because we already know what it will be,” he said in an interview with the Americas Program.

    “Here in Paris, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is not being negiotiated under criteria of climate justice or climate science. All that’s being done is taking note of the promises of each country and adding them up,” said the former Bolivian ambassador.

    Nearly all of the world’s countries– about 186 to date– have promised to reduce emissions. The official report of these promises, when seen as a global plan, constitutes an announcement of disaster…”

    Reply
    • wili

       /  December 11, 2015

      http://www.democracynow.org/2015/12/10/its_going_to_burn_our_planet

      “It’s Going to Burn Our Planet”: Hundreds Protest “Unacceptable” Draft Climate Accord Inside COP21

      “It’s the final stretch of negotiations at the United Nations climate change summit, COP21, as representatives from nearly 200 countries attempt to reach a final deal before the weekend. A draft text released Wednesday has nearly 100 outstanding points of disagreement that still need to be resolved, including the role that wealthy and more advanced developing countries should play in helping vulnerable nations cope with the impacts of climate change. Civil society groups attending the summit erupted in protest over Wednesday’s draft, saying it will not go far enough to prevent catastrophic global warming. Hundreds staged a sit-in and march, marking the largest protest inside COP21 to date. “It’s completely unacceptable,” Dipti Bhatnagar of Friends of the Earth International said of the draft. “It’s going to burn our planet. It’s going to drown our Pacific islands.””

      Reply
  28. Tom Bond

     /  December 11, 2015

    The COP21 good news is that Paris electricity CO2 emissions are just 40g/kWh!

    See http://www.rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/chiffres-cles-en

    (scroll to the bottom of the page)

    If France can achieve such low CO2 emissions every country can.

    Reply
  29. Abel Adamski

     /  December 11, 2015

    Cats and Canaries
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/a-new-space-race-satellites-could-verify-nations-emissions-20151210-gll3gm.html

    Paris: Scientists from the United States, Japan, and China are racing to perfect satellite technology that could one day measure greenhouse gas emissions from space, potentially transforming the winner into the world’s first climate cop.

    Monitoring a single country’s net emissions from above could not only become an important tool to establish whether it had met its promises to slow global warming, a point of contention at climate talks in Paris, but also help emitters to pinpoint the sources of greenhouse gases more quickly and cheaply.

    The margin of error for China, presumed to be the world’s top carbon polluter, is greater than the entire carbon footprint of Europe.

    “The real success of a deal here fundamentally revolves around whether we can see emissions and their removals,” said John Niles, director of the US-based Carbon Institute, which studies methods of carbon dioxide (CO₂) measurement.

    Reply
  30. – The ugly side of the American character is seen here. The seamier side of a corrupt and corrupting fossil fuel enterprise.

    ‘Climate Denial’s Ugly Side: Scientists’ Hate Mail’

    With their work in the crosshairs of a political ideology, climate scientists find themselves under attack via the Internet.

    … Journalist Seth Borenstein, who covers climate science for the Associated Press, frequently gets harassed on social media. “Why can’t we put these dangerous eco-terrorists in prison, or better yet, just execute them!” one Twitter user wrote in September, tagging Borenstein in the post.

    The harassment gets scarier when it isn’t contained to the Internet.

    A few weeks after a local California magazine published a story about Benjamin Santer, an atmospheric scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the researcher got a knock on his front door at 10 p.m. By the time he answered it, there was a dead rat on his doormat and a yellow Hummer was speeding away from the house, its driver yelling profanity out the window.

    It can also take a toll on personal lives and relationships. And for some, the fear of being attacked, ridiculed or investigated remains years after the hate mail stops.

    Hayhoe has found herself snapping at her son during particularly intense periods of attack. “That shouldn’t be happening, it shouldn’t be affecting my personal life,” Hayhoe said. “As scientists we need to take a step back and ask, what toll is this having on me, on my professional work and on my personal life?”

    Many of the researchers InsideClimate News spoke with said they have taken steps to protect themselves and their families from hate mail and harassment. Some have unlisted home addresses and phone numbers. Others have arranged that any mail or visitors get filtered through a central office at work, such as the headquarters of their university department.

    http://insideclimatenews.org/news/11122015/climate-change-global-warming-denial-ugly-side-scientists-hate-mail-hayhoe-mann

    Reply
    • Syd Bridges

       /  December 11, 2015

      There has usually been a price to pay for telling the truth, whether it was to a medieval monarch or Pontiff or some crazy Roman Emperor like Caligula or Caracalla. We smile condescendingly at the Inquisition and denying Galileo’s heliocentric universe, but behave equally badly when it comes to our perceived economic interests. So brainwashed are many in the West, that they believe their interests are absolutely aligned with those of big corporations, (think Coolidge, “The business of America is business”) that anyone daring to point out that we are on a road to disaster, is immediately labeled as a public enemy. In a modern version of “The Emperor’s Clothes,” the little boy would have been summarily shot by one of the adoring members of the crowd, and everyone else would have continued to believe that he was wearing the most subtle clothing ever made.

      Of course we don’t here a squeak about this thuggery from Caudillo Cruz or Fuhrer Imhofe. Instead, these sociopaths are the ringleaders of the cheering, jeering jackenapes. I have seen posters on Facebook who think that the Republican gains last November somehow meant that AGW wasn’t happening. I pointed out that no-one has a vote on the laws of physics, to which there was no reply.

      The fundamental cowardice of these harassers is matched only by the mendacity and cowardice of the leaders of Congress, who are far more addicted to their carbon dollars than any junkie has ever been to heroin.

      As a non-American, I would suggest that it’s as unAmerican as lynch law. Oh, wait a minute….

      Reply
      • These people are the real terrorists. The ones who encourage violence against scientists and people concerned about climate are the same who encourage violence against doctors helping women at clinics. There is nothing in this statement other than blatant bullying, violence incitation and rank intimidation. ISIS would be proud.

        Reply
  31. El Niño Observations

    A significant El Niño has developed in the Pacific Ocean. Interest in this event is high because impacts across the U.S. and the world will likely be substantial. The images below show key spaceborne observations of the ocean and atmosphere as they are currently changing with El Niño. The images are produced by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and partner agencies and compare the current conditions with the largest El Nino on record in 1997-1998, or with a ‘normal’ year for measurements that do not extend back to 1997.

    Many of the images are designed to show a data “anomaly”, revealing when data is outside of normal measurement ranges. For example, sea surface temperature (SST) data that stray from the normal range of variation are shown as SST anomalies. The color bar indicates how far from normal the measurements are.

    – Sea Surface Height Anomaly – California Coast NASA/JPL/PO.DAAC

    Reply
  32. Near 120W 40N

     /  December 11, 2015

    Assuming this El Nino causes record-breaking weather events around the country, the narrative in the media will be “El Nino did it” and “El Nino this” and “El Nino that.” The role of AGW will not be mentioned and forgotten about. Meteorologists seem to reinforce this narrative, which isn’t correct, this El Nino and AGW are inseparable and intertwined.

    Reply
  33. – ‘All Weather’ Drones No Match for UK Weather

    Drone Warfare
    Army moves Watchkeeper drone training to tropics for winter after flying problems in UK weather

    The supposedly “all weather” drones are currently being tested in Aberporth, west Wales, and at Boscombe Down on the Salisbury Plain.

    But with the Army worried about rain, snow, wind and ice affecting flying time in the UK, a decision has been taken to send an undisclosed number to the Ascension Island for eight months, a British Overseas Territory just south of the equator.

    A team big enough to ensure 16 pilots are trained will be dispatched. The drones will be shipped out on December 22 and arrive early January. Testing will begin shortly afterwards, with a full training programme running from April until August.

    The decision was announced at a drone conference at Twickenham Stadium on December 1, the day before the Commons voted to extend RAF bombing missions against Isis in Syria.

    Reply
  34. NWS OPC ‏@NWSOPC 2m2 minutes ago

    OPC 48-hour Pac forecast w/intense 925mb hurricane force low & 85kt winds, comparable to Post-Tropical Nuri in 2014

    Reply
  35. oh my goodness; this gives me an intense sense of foreboding as those here on ecuador’s coast wait for that bad child’s visit… mother ocean has kept her best manners on, though the first few weeks of january are often when she plays her wild cards. one friend has moved from her home — and i sometimes wonder if mother ocean is trying her best to warn them to get out before they’re hit with waves like the ones you’ve just written about.

    here’s the post about pat with photos of what looks like a war zone.

    https://playamart.wordpress.com/2015/10/29/is-it-too-risky-to-invest-in-ecuador/

    thanks, as always, for your posts, which help me stay in tune with what’s happening to our planet.
    from the cloud forest,
    lisa/z

    Reply
  36. Thank you for good stuff unhindered by sponsored flilters. I look forward to reading more.

    Reply
  1. Monster El Nino Hurls 43+ Foot Waves at US West Coast | robertscribbler | GarryRogers Nature Conservation and Science Fiction (#EcoSciFi)

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