1.06 C Above 1880: Climate Year 2015 Shatters All Previous Records For Hottest Ever

We knew it was going to be a record breaker. We knew that atmospheric greenhouse gasses in the range of 400 parts per million CO2 and 485 parts per million CO2e, when combined with one of the top three strongest El Ninos in the Pacific, would result in new all-time global record high temperatures. But what we didn’t know was how substantial the jump would ultimately be.

Today, the numbers were made public by NASA. And I hate to say it, but it’s a real doozy. Overall, according to NASA, Climate Year 2015 — the 12 month period from December of 2014 through November of 2015 — was 0.84 C hotter than NASA’s 20th Century Baseline. That’s 0.11 C hotter than previous hottest year 2014 and a full 0.21 C hotter than climate change deniers’ favorite cherry — 1998. In other words past record hot years are being left in the dust as the world is heating up to ever more dangerously warm global temperatures.

 

Global temperature increase

(NASA’s global temperature graph through end 2014. Climate year 2015, at 0.84 C above the NASA 20th Century baseline, is quite literally off the chart. Image source: NASA GISS.)

In any case, the current NASA Graph above is going to need some serious adjusting as the new global average for climate year 2015 is simply off the top of the chart. A new jump that gives lie to the increasingly obvious fake claim made by climate change deniers over the past two years that global warming somehow ‘paused.’

But aside from reality once again making the fossil fuel cheerleaders of the world (aka climate change deniers) look increasingly imbecilic, 2015’s new temperature increase is a visible sign of increasing climate danger. This year’s 0.84 C temperature departure above NASA’s 20th Century baseline is 1.06 C hotter than 1880s values. It’s a number just 0.44 C (or two more strong El Ninos) away from crossing the very dangerous 1.5 C threshold that nations of the world recently pledged to attempt to avoid at the Paris Climate Summit. It’s also a number more than halfway toward hitting the catastrophic 2 C warming threshold. Perhaps more ominously, Monthly temperature departures in October of 2015 hit a range of 1.06 C above the 20th Century baseline and 1.28 C above 1880s averages — shorter term ranges that are already coming close to testing the 1.5 C threshold.

Hard Work Ahead to Prevent the Most Dangerous Outcomes

Regardless of arguments about how possible or likely we are to avoid such dangerous and catastrophic warming in the future, we should recognize now that we’ve already locked in enough atmospheric and ocean heat to begin setting off dangerous geophysical changes. A world 1 C hotter than 1880 is a world of increasingly rapid sea level rise, a world of increasingly swiftly declining ocean health, a world where water security in many places is already at risk, a world of worsening droughts and deluges, a world in which the strongest storms are growing ever stronger. A world 1 C hotter than 1880 is a world that is starting to see the dangerous and damaging impacts of human-forced climate change. A place where the worst is still yet to come.

So let’s not mince words. It’s going to be bad and it’s going to get worse. How bad and how much worse depends on how rapidly the world weans itself off fossil fuels and hits net zero or net negative carbon emissions. At more than 50 billion tons of CO2e hitting the atmosphere each year now, we have a long way to go and fast. Let’s hope for everyone’s sake that we’re up to the challenge. It’s getting rough out there. Let’s not tempt nature to unleash upon us the worst of the world’s climate demons. Unfortunately, a few have already slipped the bonds. But there are many more waiting if we continue along this wretched path of burning.

Links:

NASA GISS: Global Temperature Analysis

NASA GISS

Paris Climate Conference ‘At the Limits of Suicide’

UPDATES TO FOLLOW

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324 Comments

  1. Matt

     /  December 14, 2015

    Another excellent article Robert!

    Leading on from Eric’s earlier excellent comment in the last post…
    “I hate to drag out the old Titanic metaphor again, but it seems so appropriate. I can envision a headline reading something like this: “195 nations in landmark climate talks agree that the deck chairs DO need to be rearranged!”

    Then there are the poor folks in steerage, those residents of the disappearing Pacific islands, who are already drowning. The great majority of the rest of the world’s peoples don’t seem to realize that the rest of the ship is connected to steerage and will be going down too.”

    I don’t know how the outcome of COP21 is being reported in your neck of the woods, but here in Australia it has me living in a fantasy land! Headlines of congratulations because they have kept a 1.5C reference in the agreement, because there is wording such as limiting temperature rise to well below 2C!

    WTF, have I gone mad? it would seem as if the politicians have just solved global warming and we can all go back to life the way it was. There are all these grandstanding comments with absolutely nothing within the agreement that comes remotely close to limiting warming beyond 3C let alone 2C or 1.5C. As you have quoted in your article, we have already gone to 1.06C above pre-industrial. The “review” every 5 years is a farce and of course conveniently beyond virtually all to the developed worlds political cycles so that the politicians responsible for the agreement won’t be in power come judgement day.

    Can anyone lead me to a climate scientist who actually believes that the commitments made within this agreement will actually do anything to slow the rapid pace of warming and limit the rise to 2C? The perilous state of the remaining carbon budget as so well described by Robert’s posts, Dr Kevin Anderson and so many contributors here, is just totally ignored with this “agreement”. It really is already to late for 2C and in 5 years time??? well that will be anyone’s guess.

    Sorry for the rant…..

    Here in Aus, we are expecting a pre Xmas heat wave, which of course the media is down playing again.
    My prediction for Marble Bar to beat the record consecutive days over 100F is still on track now sitting on 76 days since the last recorded day below 100F (although there a still 8 days unreported on the BOM site – not sure if they will be published – so even if it breaks the records it probably won’t officially stand). Forecast for the next 4 days? 45C, 45C, 45C, 45C.

    Reply
    • redskylite

       /  December 15, 2015

      Across the ditch (in Kiwi land), I’ve been wondering if I’m on the same planet. After the congratulations from Paris Our government just awarded themselves a very fat & healthy pay rise (way above any salary I could ever image), and announced oil exploration permissions would continue as normal. What is all this end of the fossil fuel era I keep reading about ? Yet most of the public seem happy – is it me ?

      Reply
    • Harquebus

       /  December 18, 2015

      Here in Adelaide, we are expecting 4 days, presently in our third, of >40C. Never before experienced in December since records began. A few years ago, we experienced our hottest summer heat wave and a year or two before that, our longest.
      It only takes a day of extreme heat (40C plus) to destroy most of my garden.

      “Nevertheless the atmosphere does not respond to political craft and strategic compromise, it only responds to the laws of physics which are uncompromising and potentially lethal for most species on Earth, including our own.”
      http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/14/climate-change-and-the-continual-demand-for-economic-growth

      Reply
  2. PlazaRed

     /  December 14, 2015

    This climate talks thing in Paris.
    There does not appear to be any form of back up verification or policing of its suggestions as far as I can see.
    Its all too little a lot too late, almost like a committee for arranging to close the stable door a long time after the horses have wandered off.
    At least from the general publics point of view they “tried,” probably provided a lot of jobs and income for certain people but at the end of the day we must consider that its coming up to the time when the “Big Planet,” is going to strike back.

    Thanks for the post and all its info, I’m glued to the future and trying to cope with the past.

    Reply
  3. 1.28 C above 1880s levels…. That’s 64% of the allotted 2 C target. Worse when you compare it to the newly-agreed 1.5 C target from the COP21 conference.

    And it looks like Nature had already opened her Pandora’s Box.

    PS Reblogging this tomorrow.🙂

    Reply
  4. redskylite

     /  December 15, 2015

    Many thanks Robert for that excellent and strong worded commentary on NASA’s latest GISS records, the temperature anomaly truly is beginning to surge El Nino or not, no time for complacency after the Paris accord.

    I noticed that the Hong Kong Observatory reports a 2.2 degree Celsius anomaly rise for November 2015, that must be affecting the HK/South China sea ecology badly. It is also worth to note from NASA that the Northern Hemisphere land ocean anomaly was +1.35°C and the Northern Hemisphere land surface only was a whopping +1.55°C. That must be worrying (for the COP21 odds of achieving a well under 2°C target -) as the main land mass is up North, and that the bipolar effect seems to suggest the South follows the North, over time.

    Variability may bring it down a little for a few post El Nino years but I think your audience knows that in the medium to long term extremes and affects will get even rougher and more dangerous.

    I remember reading some time ago Dr. Kevin Trenberth predicting much of this, he is well worth listening to.

    I often look to the Hong Kong stats as a small (but meticulous) independent player and verifier of the larger authorities.

    http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/mws2015/mws201511.htm

    Reply
    • Andy in SD

       /  December 15, 2015

      Great site with lots of good roll up summaries as you stated.

      Thanks for sharing.

      Andy

      Reply
  5. Griffin

     /  December 15, 2015

    Post by post, comment by comment, we are watching history unfold. Some posts hit harder than others. Thank you for taking the time to once again catalog a milestone in our journey Robert.

    Reply
  6. Andy in SD

     /  December 15, 2015

    We are terraforming the planet to one where complex organisms find it more complex to compete and survive.

    We see the headlines of algae blooms, jelly fish swarm blooms and the such. We see massive occurrences of land and sea based die offs. Simple life forms have a higher adaptability.

    What we don’t see is the summary, die offs are among the complex life forms, the blooms are occurring within the simple life forms.

    The mass extinction and reset of the phylogenetic tree has not simply started, it is underway.

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  December 15, 2015

      That is a great point Andy. Scary as hell, but your darn right.

      Reply
    • labmonkey2

       /  December 15, 2015

      It’s just ‘Natures Way’ of resetting the biosphere to regain the equilibrium we humans have chemically unbalanced with the fossil fuel burning. Reminds me of this:

      And yes, something IS wrong.

      Reply
  7. Reblogged this on The Secular Jurist and commented:
    “This year’s 0.84 C temperature departure above NASA’s 20th Century baseline is 1.06 C hotter than 1880s values. It’s a number just 0.44 C (or two more strong El Ninos) away from crossing the very dangerous 1.5 C threshold that nations of the world recently pledged to attempt to avoid at the Paris Climate Summit. It’s also a number more than halfway toward hitting the catastrophic 2 C warming threshold. “

    Reply
  8. Jeremy

     /  December 15, 2015

    Read and weep!

    “The UK is going into reverse on renewable energy while pressing the accelerator on fracking, according to former Environment Agency chairman Lord Chris Smith.”

    “The £900,000 year-long assessment by the shale gas taskforce was funded by the fracking industry, including Centrica, Cuadrilla and Total, but was produced independently.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/15/uk-is-going-into-reverse-on-clean-energy-says-former-environment-agency-head

    The British deserve everything they’ve got coming to them.

    Reply
    • James Burton

       /  December 15, 2015

      I’ve been following the UK fracking debate right from the start. The political power now rests inside corporate board rooms, not in the election cycle. Candidates are carefully chosen to provide an illusion of choice, but really, the viable parties and candidates are mostly all absorbed into the Corporate and Corporate Media structure. The BBC and News Papers are lined up with the corporate agenda.
      Fracking was always going to be the political leader’s choice for British energy future. The fix was in, Government and Corporations are allied in an insider’s game that manipulates people through corporate media.
      Read the “comments Section” to any newspaper article on “Weather” “Climate” “storms” “flooding” etc. And it explodes with hundreds of “Climate change is a hoax” comments. The public has been duped by clever PR and Advertising professionals.
      Fracking was a policy decided behind closed doors with top politicians and top corporate executives making a policy for corporate profits, and all else be damned.
      Even as global climate change related storms flood and tear Britain apart, the British power structure prepares to drill and frack every inch of possible land in Britain. Logic is out the window, greed that runs so deep it is willing to destroy out habitable planet just to up shareholder returns, and allow those at the top to buy new more expensive London flats and country houses. “Greed is Good”, we still live by that creed, if you challenge that creed, you are a communist, socialist, enemy of the people, or simply a freak.
      In a very real sense, the corporate greed mongers have won. The fact that Britain will Frack itself proves it.

      Reply
      • Ryan in New England

         /  December 15, 2015

        What you describe sounds exactly like our situation across the pond here in the U.S. Since around the turn of the century fracking has decimated huge swaths of this country, and rendered many aquifers and local groundwater permanently toxic. I fear for what your country will experience from fracking. You have far less space than the U.S., so the effects will be hard to “hide”.

        Our political situation here is as you describe, the illusion of choice is presented and candidates make bold promises and suggest they will enact policy that will benefit someone other than corporations and the already wealthy, but it never happens. The average citizen has no voice or power, and it seems to get worse with every year. What’s worse is that the average citizen is too ignorant and apathetic to know or care about their socioeconomic situation. They don’t know history, geography or anything about science…God forbid. They cheer for deranged lunatics like Trump, with the hope that he’ll finally make things better, and get rid of those brow-skinned people, not knowing enough to realize it’s people like Trump that have destroyed the American middle class, and any future our kids might have. They have been too effectively brainwashed by the corporate propaganda system to care about anything other than shopping and acquiring massive piles of shit that they don’t need. It’s a sad situation.

        Reply
      • Mblanc

         /  December 16, 2015

        I recognise your characterisation of the Tory party, I think they are the political wing of the City of London and other corporate interests, for the most part. I also agree that fracking is basically a bad idea, when we need to reduce carbon intensity asap.

        But the UK is not the US (although the direction of travel in UK society over the last 35 years is clear), and I think the idea that we are definitely going to disappear under a forest of wells is jumping the gun a bit.

        I fully respect efforts to fight fracking, it is crucial in holding back the corporate push to drill, but this industry backed ‘independent’ report seems pretty weak to me. I didn’t see anything reported that makes fracking significantly more likely. Indeed the admission that UK domestic gas prices would not fall is very damaging to Osbourne’s ‘drill baby drill’ philosophy, and Chris Smith said plenty of other things that protesters can use to bash the developers with.

        The first licence was granted 8 years ago, so we have not really seen the kind of free for all ‘dash for gas’ the US experienced. I just don’t see the government being able to push this through, all over the country, in the face of the kind of commited local opposition which has already had some significant successes in holding back the tide.

        As we saw with Tax credits, Osbourne (as dangerous as he is) is not omnipotent, and I see the rise of Jeremy Corbyn as a clear demonstration that there are still choices to be had in Britsh/English politics. You may say Corbyn is being roasted in the media, and he is, but the Oldham by-election result suggests that a fair sized chunk of the population is not buying the MSM message.

        It is the same with fracking, I genuinely believe it will not happen on the grand scale that it did in the US, partly because although we are becoming more like the US, we have a long way to go before we get to the level of corporate capture of politics we see there.

        Reply
    • Mblanc

       /  December 16, 2015

      I’ve read it, and I really cannot see what I deserve. I don’t come on here saying the Canadians deserve everything they get because of the tar sands, or that the US, the indisputable home of climate denial, deserve their droughts and floods. Sometimes we make progress, and at other times we miss opportunities, just like other countries. If you are from Uruguay, you can get on your high horse, fair enough, but wishing disaster on others is divisive and unhelpful.

      I would never ever vote for the Tories, but they say they are trying to do a ‘reset’ on the UK’s approach to green energy, because they were held back from changing much by the Liberals, in the last parliament. They want to get a nice fat share of the govnt money spent into the backpockets of their corporate paymasters, is my interpretation. Now I don’t agree with this move, but it is worth recognising that Amber Rudd is not a denier, as the Guardian recognises in this editorial.

      http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/14/the-guardian-view-on-uk-energy-policy-after-paris-amber-rudd-must-flick-the-trip-switch

      I’m not saying everything is rosy, far from it, and climate denial is probably stonger here than in most of the EU, but it is definitely less strong than in the US, Canada and Australia. I really don’t see why we should be especially despised.

      I read that article and your 2 quotes, whilst eye-catching, are a bit misleading. Everyone should check the source material for the full story, if they are interested.

      Reply
  9. Abel Adamski

     /  December 15, 2015

    One of the reasons why the world is increasingly finding itself paralysed in the face of threats.
    The polarisation of populations by shock jocks and media
    http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2015/1213/Why-swing-voters-are-vanishing-from-US-politics

    another couple of good articles there including one on Why America is not winning it’s wars.
    They offer a good and valid case, but a major fact they avoid is the problem is the reasons which are what ultimately determines the course of events and the aftermath.
    IMO a metaphor for the survival of humanity

    Reply
  10. I have noticed now since the warming is doing another jump up the escalator (ref Skeptical Science graph) the denier meme most used today is that the big organizations have “fudged with the data”, so its back on with the tinfoil hats all over the place.

    On a positive note the Government Pension Fund of Norway has asked the current government to approve a bigger investment in wind and solar all over the world as well as up to a 5% fraction of the fund placed in energy infrastructure.

    However the current right wing government of Norway’s energy minster again repeated that Norways primary contribution would be the same as before, buying credits so that we can pollute at will…😦 – The government has a fair share of deniers in minister posts as well as many lukewarmers.

    Reply
  11. Ryan in New England

     /  December 15, 2015

    So, we are knocking on the 1.5C door already, and 2C isn’t that far off. Especially when you consider that we are seeing the effect of emissions from the 70s and 80s, and the warming potential of current CO2 levels has yet to be realized. I really can’t imagine the world (especially the scientifically backward US) substantially reducing emissions by time we cross these thresholds. New fossil fuel reserves are still being sought after, and FF infrastructure is still being developed. Fossil fuel dependent vehicles and power plants, which use FF for decades, are still being built. And our leaders haven’t even mentioned the vast amounts of CO2 and methane that come from things like livestock CAFOs and cement production. It seems we are still in a form of denial about how serious the situation really is. And like other commenters have pointed out, there seems to be a sense of celebratory relief that we’ve somehow solved the global warming problem, when we haven’t done a damn thing.

    Meanwhile, it’s 5:30 in the morning, it’s 60 degrees here in Connecticut and I slept with my windows open for the fourth night in a row…when it’s almost Christmas! There should be snow on the ground, freezing temps (especially at night) and I should be wearing long johns at work, not shorts and t-shirts.

    Reply
  12. Jeremy

     /  December 15, 2015

    FLOP21 was a complete and utter fraud or, to quote Hansen, bullshit.

    CO2 emissions are going to be going WAY up .

    “Why? Because all the countries have agreed to accept the promises of all the other countries. Among the top 20 countries for emissions, here are the countries that have promised to increase their emissions a lot by 2030: China, India, Russia, Korea, Mexico, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, Thailand, Kazakhstan, United Arab Emirates, Vietnam.

    And here are the countries in the top 20 that have promised to cut their emissions by about 1% a year between now and 2030: USA, European Union, Japan, Canada, Brazil, Australia, and Argentina.

    The countries that won’t cut will increase a lot will increase a lot. The countries that will cut will not cut by much. You would never know this from the way the agreement has been reported by the UN or the media.”

    https://globalclimatejobs.wordpress.com/2015/11/09/world-pledges-to-increase-emissions/

    Reply
  13. Jeremy

     /  December 15, 2015

    Hansen – FLOP21 = “BULLSHIT”

    “Our research shows that 1,199 new coal-fired plants with a total installed capacity of 1,401,268 megawatts (MW) are being proposed globally.”

    http://www.wri.org/resources/data-visualizations/proposed-coal-fired-plants-installed-capacity-mw

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  December 15, 2015

      Exactly, Jeremy. I hate to be labeled cynical or pessimistic, but when you look at the overall picture, nothing is really different. Vast amounts of fossil fuel infrastructure is still being built, with a long lifetime expectancy. New oil and gas fields are still being hunted for and developed. If we wanted to avoid 1.5C we needed to stop emissions 10 years ago.

      Reply
  14. Abel Adamski

     /  December 15, 2015

    With concerns for the so called low hanging fruit
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150415090022.htm

    Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide limits soil storage

    Date:
    April 15, 2015
    Source:
    Department of Energy, Office of Science
    Summary:
    Soil carbon may not be as stable as previously thought, scientists report, adding that soil microbes exert more direct control on carbon buildup than global climate models represent. This study, researchers say, provides insight into the mechanisms determining long-term soil carbon storage, knowledge that can be used to improve climate model representations of the global carbon cycle.

    Plus some valuable information in the related articles

    Reply
  15. Wharf Rat

     /  December 15, 2015

    A Mythbusting Guide to the Paris Climate Agreement

    FACT: Paris does have legally binding aspects, and other nations are already taking action.

    The Paris Agreement is legally binding in that each country’s pledge represents a domestically binding policy. The US commitment is based off existing law. The Clean Power Plan derives its authority from the Clean Air Act and Supreme Court rulings….

    http://www.desmogblog.com/2015/12/15/busting-myths-already-out-there-paris-climate-agreement

    Reply
  16. We’re past the crook in the hockey stick: we can expect a corresponding outcome… Time history of atmospheric carbon dioxide, by CIRES & NOAA … http://youtu.be/UatUDnFmNTY

    Sent from my iPad 🙏🏻

    >

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  December 15, 2015

      Wow. The last 15-20 seconds shows just how steep that curve is. Thank you.

      Reply
      • Yes, isn’t the current CO2 levels said to be around 50-100 times faster than when deglaciation happens? I guess the planet actually havent had this steep rise in CO2 since it was formed? Well perhaps when the Siberian traps erupted over 250 million years ago we had a simliar rise in CO2.

        Reply
    • Steven Blaisdell

       /  December 16, 2015

      Great graphic.

      Reply
  17. Greg

     /  December 15, 2015

    That Bering Sea extratropical cyclone reached as low as 924 millibars and was measured at at buoy at 929. December 13:
    http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2015/bering-himawari-12.13.15

    Reply
  18. Greg

     /  December 15, 2015

    California offers one roadmap for reversing emissions. Now if they can just solve that little water problem…

    Reply
  19. Greg

     /  December 15, 2015

    A number of small nations offer pathways and lessons for success as well. Note Uruguay has added no new hydropower to accomplish its goals
    :
    Small nations, renewable giants

    “Uruguay gets 94.5% of its electricity from renewables. In addition to old hydropower plants, a hefty investment in wind, biomass and solar in recent years has raised the share of these sources in the total energy mix to 55%, compared with a global average of 12%, and about 20% in Europe.

    Costa Rica went a record 94 consecutive days earlier this year without using fossil fuel for electricity, thanks to a mix of about 78% hydropower, 12% geothermal and 10% wind. The government has set a target of 100% renewable energy by 2021. But transport remains dirty.

    Iceland has the advantage of being a nation of volcanoes, which has allowed it to tap geothermal sources of 85% of its heating and – with the assistance of hydropower – 100% of its electricity. This has made it the world’s largest green energy producer per capita.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/03/uruguay-makes-dramatic-shift-to-nearly-95-clean-energy

    Reply
  20. Greg

     /  December 15, 2015

    The Paris agreement has shown the reach of the climate movement as well as its power and ferocity … it seems, is no longer a fringe issue — people are starting to understand that from food security to public health, all aspects of life are wrapped up in climate.
    “The climate movement is an everyone movement now,” Ruby-Sachs said. “There are no spectators.”

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/14/3731402/paris-climate-agreement-movement-is-power/

    Reply
    • Mblanc

       /  December 16, 2015

      Seems to be a few differing interpretations of Paris floating about, I suppose it depends what we, as individuals, expected from COP21.

      Reply
      • Greg

         /  December 16, 2015

        Totally agree. If you think it was the be and end all well forget it but it was a significant part of a political and moral shift this year that is important. We are talking about moving trillions of invested and investible money in a different direction along with a collective conscience. No small feat. The Pope’s encyclical, the COP21, the divestiture movement all aided this conversation. I’m of the opinion that FF was given a warning that its days are numbered in a serious way. The dollars are beginning to move away and momentum could shift dramatically now in the next several years.

        Reply
  21. – Alaska – Permafrost Melt

    The chilling science on Alaska’s melting permafrost
    By Andrea Thompson on 10 Dec 2015

    Up to a quarter of the permafrost that lies just under the ground surface in Alaska could thaw by the end of the century, releasing long-trapped carbon that could make its way into the atmosphere and exacerbate global warming, a new study finds.

    Polygonal lakes created by melting permafrost on Alaska’s North Slope.NASA

    Reply
  22. – So many college graduates enter the world with blinders on their fragile intellects. We get dysfunction. They get a false sense of accomplishment and usefulness. Not always — but this does predominate in our society hell bent on ignoring a toxic and dangerous reality.

    – Koch brothers supersize higher-ed spending
    In 2014, billionaire industrialists’ foundations donated to more colleges than ever

    The Koch brothers are supersizing their already hefty investments into college students’ hearts and minds.

    A pair of private foundations led by the billionaire industrialists poured more than $23.4 million into U.S. colleges and universities during 2014, according to a Center for Public Integrity analysis of tax documents recently filed with the Internal Revenue Service.

    That’s several million dollars more than the $19.3 million the Charles Koch Foundation and Fred C. and Mary R. Koch Foundation together spread among schools during 2013 — and nearly double the $12.7 million they spent in 2012.
    http://www.publicintegrity.org/2015/12/15/19007/koch-brothers-supersize-higher-ed-spending

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  December 16, 2015

      The Kochs really are trying to buy their own reality…and the country as well. They’re going to spend a billion dollars on the 2016 election alone.

      Reply
      • Ryan in New England

         /  December 16, 2015

        They’ve effectively financed their own party. Their spending is on par with either of the two major political parties.

        Reply
  23. – I know nothing about gravity ‘waves’. (But I waved back anyways🙂. Tis interesting tho.

    WS WPC ‏@NWSWPC 2h2 hours ago

    Take a look at this gravity wave propagating eastward across Texas this morning–ahead of a cold front #txwx

    Reply
  24. – Robert, Sam Carana at Arctic News shared this post.

    Reply
    • Cheers to Sam! Much appreciated. I honestly wish the folks over at Paris had taken a look at his particular emissions reduction plan. A pace I find entirely appropriate given the current situation (regardless of that prickly Arctic methane issue😉.

      Reply
  25. – There is some nice gif imagery on this WaPo piece.

    Bering Sea ‘bomb’ cyclone ties record for strongest winter storm in North Pacific

    The Bering Sea west of Alaska hosted a whopping storm system over the weekend, with sustained winds equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane and gusts up to 115 mph.

    Having dropped 49 millibars between Saturday and Sunday, the incredible Aleutian cyclone constitutes a meteorological “bomb” — a storm that drops at least 24 millibars in 24 hours — more than twice over.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/12/14/bering-sea-bomb-cyclone-ties-record-for-strongest-storm-in-north-pacific/

    Reply
  26. Colorado Bob

     /  December 15, 2015

    Fish Stocks Are Declining Worldwide, And Climate Change Is On The Hook

    For anyone paying attention, it’s no secret there’s a lot of weird stuff going on in the oceans right now. We’ve got a monster El Nino looming in the Pacific. Ocean acidification is prompting hand wringing among oyster lovers. Migrating fish populations have caused tensions between countries over fishing rights. And fishermen say they’re seeing unusual patterns in fish stocks they haven’t seen before.

    Researchers now have more grim news to add to the mix. An analysis published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences finds that the ability of fish populations to reproduce and replenish themselves is declining across the globe.

    Link

    Reply
  27. Bill H

     /  December 15, 2015

    Even if el Nino peaks now we can still expect further spikes well into 2016, by comparison with the 1997 el Nino, when it was actually 1998 that was the “spike year”, See:https://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/l_bbSefqMGyaU-37eLiYStwYd5Q=/800×0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/4281397/CT8Z4CcUEAA99Up.0.jpg

    Already there is a denier meme that global temperatures are going to drop sharply in 2016. This is likely to be a fairly swiftly abandoned meme.

    Reply
    • With El Nino likely to extend well into 2016, temps may hit new record highs for three years running. We could end this supertrend at +1.1 or even something close to +1.2 C. Deniers need to take stock. They are more than 1 C behind the 8 ball.

      Reply
  28. Colorado Bob

     /  December 15, 2015

    Pacific Ocean may be having disastrous consequences for whales that use the waters off California as a migratory super-highway

    “This time of year, the whales would be offshore but with the blob of warm water, they’re right off the beach. They’re right where the crabs are,” said Jim Anderson, a crabber who’s helping to mobilize the state’s 562 licensed Dungeness crab fishermen. “You go talk to a guy who’s been fishing for 40 or 50 years and he’s never seen anything like it.”

    Whales that have rope stuck in their mouths or wrapped tightly around their fins or tail will eventually die if they can’t free themselves. Highly trained volunteer rescue teams are only able to disentangle a small percentage despite tracking devices that allow them to follow the hobbled animals for miles. Many swim away and their fate is never known.

    Link

    Reply
    • The oceans in that region are becoming far, far less productive. It’s really a sign of declining ocean health. What’s happening in the Arctic is impacting that region heavily and it’s happening extraordinarily fast.

      Reply
  29. Jeremy

     /  December 15, 2015

    So, all these years after Kyoto AND 21 consecutive COPS there has been no slowdown in greenhouse gas release.

    Hansen is right. – it’s BULLSHIT!

    http://peakwatch.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83452403c69e201bb089ee30d970d-pi

    Reply
  30. wili

     /  December 15, 2015

    From jedrider at POForums:

    So currently the east coast is warmer than the west coast and Arizona is the coldest place in America.

    8:11 AM – 13 Dec 2015

    11 F in Arizona. Absurd weather.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/whats-up-with-the-east-coasts-absurdly-warm-weather_566e4ebae4b0e292150e5587

    Reply
  31. wili

     /  December 15, 2015

    Did anyone else notice that CO2 jumped nearly 4 ppm in just the last month or so? The Oct average was 398 and change, while the average for the latest week was nearly 402 (401.88, last I looked).

    Does that seem a bit…extreme to anyone else, even for the upswing time of year during a super El Nino year? It certainly does not seem to reflect the supposed downturn in emissions that has been claimed to be happening this year.

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  December 15, 2015

      Feedbacks and forest fires and burning/smouldering peat, dying forests (the Amazon for example becoming a CO2 Source instead of a sink), the methane leaks from gas wells and infrastructure and coal mines, as temperature rises and CO2 increases so too does bacterial/fungal activity in soil releasing sequestered CO2 etc etc.

      http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/15822/20150727/mosses-unexpectedly-release-greenhouse-gasses-more-powerful-c02.htm

      We truly are in very dangerous territory where feedbacks are increasing

      Reply
    • Griffin

       /  December 16, 2015

      I have noticed wili. I have been wondering how much of an impact that a warmer ocean is having on oceanic carbon absorption. If so much area is warmer, will atmospheric concentrations rise faster as a result?

      Reply
    • Mblanc

       /  December 16, 2015

      Was the ‘supposed downturn in emissions’ referring to total emissions, or emissions caused by humans, or emissions reported by humans and caused by humans?

      Feedbacks come to mind.

      Reply
      • wili

         /  December 16, 2015

        Thanks all. Nice to know I’m not the only one looking at these, arguably the most important numbers since the evolution of complex life some 500,000 million years ago.

        I can’t help but wonder if we are watching the earth being catapulted into a major step change in CO2 concentrations and abrupt climate shift.

        Yes, Mblanc, feedbacks do definitely come to mind.
        Also the likelihood that the reports of the supposed reductions in total global emissions may in fact be, in Hansen’s words, ‘Bullshit.’

        Reply
  32. Colorado Bob

     /  December 15, 2015

    California’s stranded sea lions suffering from brain damage caused by algae blooms

    SAN JOSE, Calif.

    Scientists have gleaned fresh insight into the havoc wreaked by a microscopic culprit that has disrupted marine life this year along the Pacific Coast, not only tainting Northern California’s delicious supply of Dungeness crab but also sickening or killing hundreds of sea lions.

    It’s long been known that a tiny toxin called domoic acid, produced by marine algae known as pseudo-nitzschia, kills brain cells. But new research by a University of California, Santa Cruz, team illuminates the relationship between damage to the brain and sea lions’ profound loss of memory and navigational skills. In recent years, biologists have increasingly observed a high number of California sea lions struggle onto beaches, weak, confused and trembling.

    Link

    Reply
  33. Arctic report card is out:

    Reply
  34. Greenland ice sheet seems too slow down in melting, at least for now:

    Reply
    • wili

       /  December 16, 2015

      Is that feedback from the fact that the melting so far has cooled down the North Atlantic so that it is about the only place on the planet that regularly shows anomalously cool temps?

      Reply
      • wili

         /  December 16, 2015

        If so, then there will soon be a swing the other way, as the gulf current roars back into action and super heats the areas around Greenland, until that causes enough water to run off GIS into the North Atlantic to cool it down again…rather rinse repeat…

        The focus on global average temperatures can give the impression that this is going to be a gradual thing. But that’s not how most localities will likely experience it as we jerk from one semi-stable system to another and back, and back again.

        Reply
      • Mblanc

         /  December 16, 2015

        Good point Wili. Localised climate see-saw, coming now or soon.

        Reply
      • You got it Wili. What we’ll tend to see from Greenland are these big pulse events followed by pauses as the local environmental cooling sets in. Of course, this is for surface melt. Basal melt won’t be negatively impacted. In fact the ocean mechanism is to pull more heat toward the ice sheet base.

        Reply
  35. Abel Adamski

     /  December 15, 2015
    Reply
  36. Abel Adamski

     /  December 15, 2015

    And from down South in La La Land
    http://www.9news.com.au/wild-weather/2015/12/16/08/07/extreme-heat-warning-issued-with-adelaide-and-melbourne-temperatures-set-to-hit-42c-39c

    The six-day-long heatwave would be Adelaide’s first since 2009 and the second since the 1930s.

    In Melbourne, temperatures are expected to rise from a maximum of 33ºC tomorrow and Friday to 39ºC on Saturday.

    And Summer has only just started, the Sydney Hobart Yacht race should be interesting as should the Australian Open Tennis. They are factors that the Sport mad Aussies will take note of (as I said La La Land)

    Reply
  37. Ryan in New England

     /  December 15, 2015

    The CBS Evening News had a segment on Buffalo, and how they haven’t had any snow yet…a record for latest in the season without snow. Not once was climate change mentioned! They blamed everything on El Nino, and phrased the Buffalo record as,”Buffalo hasn’t gone this far into the season without snow since 1899″ which suggests to viewers that it happened in 1899, but in reality this is unprecedented. And as expected, voters’ number one concern is terrorism, since you know, you’re more likely to be struck by lightning than be killed by terrorism. And the one thing causing billions in damage every single year and affecting millions of lives (just here n the U.S.) is never mentioned or ever worried about. I’m telling you we have no f***ing hope.

    Reply
    • Near 120W 40N

       /  December 16, 2015

      @Ryan in NE: “they blamed everything on El Nino”

      The media shares some blame for this. I believe it’s also meteorology or climate experts who too often omit AGW as a cause as well. They are probably afraid of saying something controversial. What they should be saying is: “Buffalo’s record weather is due to El Nino, altered and intensified by climate change.”

      Reply
    • Griffin

       /  December 16, 2015

      Lots of folks harping about needing to mow the lawn again in Massachusetts. They say it as if THAT is the inconvenience!! In times like these we get to see how those around us think, and that can really suck.

      Reply
  38. Colorado Bob

     /  December 16, 2015

    CBS News –

    NO snow in Buffalo, this is the latest with No Snow event since 1899.

    The ‘autumn-blooming’ cherry blossoms are still going strong on the National Mall

    Here we are in mid-December — the sun is shining, the birds are singing and… the cherry blossoms are still blooming.

    Link

    Reply
  39. Apneaman

     /  December 16, 2015

    ‘Fossil Fuels’ Nowhere to be Found in the Paris Agreement

    Published on Dec 14, 2015
    Professor Chris Williams says 21 years of treaties and negotiations have all been stepping around the main problem: the production of fossil fuels

    Reply
  40. Andy in SD

     /  December 16, 2015

    Study: Alaska to lose much of its shallow permafrost by century’s end

    Shallow permafrost lies beneath the surface of more than a third of mainland Alaska, but 16 percent to 24 percent will disappear by the end of the century, the study concludes.

    Reply
  41. Andy in SD

     /  December 16, 2015

    Mysterious craters in Siberian permafrost may have an underwater analogue, scientists say

    https://www.adn.com/article/20151124/mysterious-craters-siberian-permafrost-may-have-underwater-analogue-scientists-say

    Reply
  42. Andy in SD

     /  December 16, 2015

    Arctic posts record warmth over land, less ice in its ocean

    The warming Arctic has set another record. The average air temperature over Arctic land reached 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit above average for the year ending in September. That’s the highest since observations began in 1900.

    http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2015/12/15/arctic-posts-record-warmth-over-land-less-ice-its-ocean/cHSb1lu15g7btM20qiWEFK/story.html

    Reply
  43. Jeremy

     /  December 16, 2015

    Very interesting radio interviews linked below.
    Keep an open mind, but not so open that your brain fallls out!

    This week’s Global Research News Hour invites three analysts with three different perspectives related to fossil fuel dependence and climate change.

    First we speak to Richard Heinberg. He is a Senior Fellow with the Post-Carbon Institute. He is a journalist, and author of a dozen books including The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies (2003) and his most recent Afterburn: Society Beyond Fossil Fuels (2015). Heinberg is considered one of the world’s leading educators on the subject of Peak Oil, the opposite side of the fossil fuel energy coin. In this interview he outlines the extent to which our society is dependent on cheap oil, why peak oil is still an issue in spite of $40 a barrel oil, how hydraulic fracturing and other new oil recovery technologies is generating an oil economy ‘bubble’ that is set to burst, and why transitioning to a “renewable energy” economy is much more complicated than many people anticipate.

    Dane Wigington is a licensed contractor based in northern California and a former employee of Bechtel. The founder of the information site geoengineeringwatch.org, Wigington is convinced that geo-engineering is among the greatest threats facing humanity at present, He remarks that geo-engineering efforts such as Solar Radiation management and the (High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) are not only harmful, but have been clandestinely pursued for decades.

    Finally, we hear from Guy McPherson. He is a Professor Emeritus of Natural Resources and Ecology & Evolutionary Biology at the University of Arizona. He has spent years assembling and collating available peer-reviewed research on climate. On his blog Nature Bats Last is a ‘Monster Climate Essay‘ which leaves readers with the conclusion that there is virtually nothing that can be done to halt runaway climate change and the Near-Term Extinction of the human species. Dr. McPherson updates listeners on the most recent discoveries and the prospects of these Climate Meetings to accomplish much of anything of significance.

    Listen here:

    [audio src="http://www.radio4all.net/files/scottprice666@hotmail.com/4319-1-GRNH_dEC_112015_episode_125_session_mixdown.mp3" /]

    Reply
    • Vic

       /  December 16, 2015

      I have a couple of questions for an open minded person like yourself Jeremy.

      Would an Exxon Mobil or a Putin or a Koch have anything to gain by spreading fear, uncertainty, doubt and disunity at a place like RS ?

      If so, what form might it take ?

      Reply
      • Jeremy

         /  December 16, 2015

        Vic – they aren’t interested in the couple of thousand folks here.
        They do that through the MSM. . .

        Reply
      • Jeremy

         /  December 16, 2015

        Vic – they aren’t interested in the couple of thousand folks here.
        They do that through the MSM. . .
        Are you scared of Near Term Human Extincttion?

        Reply
      • Caroline

         /  December 16, 2015

        Vic, the form it takes is like this (as but one of many sickening examples)
        http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/245839-oil-lobby-launches-2016-election-effort

        Reply
      • Vic

         /  December 17, 2015

        Thanks Caroline. We all need to keep our wits about us. The false prophets are many and varied.

        I believe this unnerving piece by John Pilger throws some light around some of the issues at play.
        http://johnpilger.com/articles/war-by-media-and-the-triumph-of-propaganda

        “The times we live in are so dangerous and so distorted in public perception that propaganda is no longer, as Edward Bernays called it, an “invisible government”. It is the government. It rules directly without fear of contradiction and its principal aim is the conquest of us: our sense of the world, our ability to separate truth from lies.”

        “The most effective propaganda is found not in the Sun or on Fox News – but beneath a liberal halo. When the New York Times published claims that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, its fake evidence was believed, because it wasn’t Fox News; it was the New York Times.”

        “What we need is a Fifth Estate: a journalism that monitors, deconstructs and counters propaganda and teaches the young to be agents of people, not power.”

        Reply
      • Vic

         /  December 17, 2015

        Thanks Jeremy.

        These are bleeding edge issues that Robert keeps presenting us with, and as such, the conversations we share here are in some ways pioneering the broader public conversations that will eventually reverberate around the rest of the world in the years to come. IMO, that makes places like this a fertile ground in which to sow the seeds of doubt and disunity.

        And to answer your question Jeremy, I’m about as scared of NTHE as I am of terrorism.

        Reply
  44. Ryan in New England

     /  December 16, 2015

    2015 turned out to be a bad year for the Arctic. Most sea ice is now first year seasonal ice that melts every year.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/15/arctic-noaa-report-record-high-temperatures-diminishing-sea-ice

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  December 16, 2015

      I like (by like I mean hate) the quote from NOAA that says if we stabilize emissions we can stop the Arctic melting and it’s likely our kids will see growth of ice later in the century. Even the scientists are delusional about how bad things are. Does anybody here actually think we will be seeing growth in Arctic ice anytime this century!? I would say that is extremely unlikely, and to suggest so in an interview is irresponsible as it leads the public to think things can be turned around over the course of a long weekend.

      Reply
  45. Jeremy

     /  December 16, 2015

    More Than 1,000 Daily Records Broken as December Warmth Continues in the East

    http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/warm-united-states-december-2015

    Reply
  46. Jeremy

     /  December 16, 2015

    The 2015 report card compiled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and released Tuesday comes to a disturbing conclusion: record highs in air temperatures, and lows in peak ice, reveal that—for the marine ecosystem—climate change is already “profound.”

    “Changes in sea ice alone are having profound effects on the marine ecosystem (fishes, walruses, primary production) and sea surface temperatures,” reads a statement from the federal agency, whose findings were produced by 72 scientists from 11 countries.

    http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/12/15/climate-change-driving-profound-shift-arctic-ecosystem

    Reply
  47. Caroline

     /  December 16, 2015

    The repulsive/pathological “vote4energy” scam is back infiltrating main stream media. I am grateful for groups like Greenpeace who put together this spoof showing how Big Oil has to fake citizen support for dirty energy:

    Reply
  48. Jeremy

     /  December 16, 2015

    FLOP21 – the day after !

    MPs have voted to allow fracking under Britain’s national parks, amid accusations that the government has sneaked the measure through parliament without a proper debate.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/16/fracking-under-national-parks-approved-by-mps-amid-acrimony

    Reply
  49. Jeremy

     /  December 16, 2015

    You just can’t make this shit up .

    “Less than a week since signing the global climate deal in Paris, Japan and South Korea are pressing ahead with plans to open scores of new coal-fired power plants, casting doubt on the strength of their commitment to cutting CO2 emissions.

    Even as many of the world’s rich nations seek to phase out the use of coal, Asia’s two most developed economies are burning more than ever and plan to add at least 60 new coal-fired power plants over the next 10 years.”

    http://www.dailysabah.com/asia/2015/12/15/japan-s-korea-plan-61-new-coal-plants-in-next-10-years-despite-global-climate-deal

    Reply
    • Apneaman

       /  December 16, 2015

      The entire fiasco reminds me of a line from a great Dr Hook song (written by Shel Silverstein) called “Makin It Natural”, about a guy promising to get off drugs. Actually, the whole song exemplifies humanity’s ability to continually bullshit ourselves and eachother.

      “It’s been the cause of all my sorrow
      But I think I’ll start tomorrow
      ‘Cause I sure could use a hit right now”

      Reply
  50. labmonkey2

     /  December 16, 2015

    And again, the tiny phytoplankton in all the world oceans will be front and center to our future:

    Their analyses reveal complex patterns of phytoplankton response. In a paper in Biogeosciences, they show that, in the Southern Ocean, future climate change will bring increases or decreases in phytoplankton abundance and production in distinct latitudinal bands—a pattern the researchers had not anticipated.
    “Because with climate change you have less mixing of the water column, we thought that the phytoplankton would have more access to light and they would simply expand, but instead we saw these bands of high and low abundance,” Cabré says.
    Phytoplankton are very sensitive to mineral availability, including nitrate and iron, and also to light. The team found that the latitudinal bands correspond to increased iron, which increased phytoplankton productivity from 40 to 50 degrees South, decreased light driven by changes in winds and clouds, which decreased productivity from 50 to 65 degrees South; and increased light due to more sea-ice melting in the summer, which increased productivity along the Antarctic shores.
    “Intriguingly, the trends in phytoplankton productivity predicted by the models are in line with what has already been observed over the past 20 or 30 years,” says Marinov, “suggesting that the climate change signal might have already become apparent in parts of the Southern Ocean.”

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-12-tiny-phytoplankton-big-climate.html#jCp

    Reply
  51. Greg

     /  December 16, 2015

    Jeff Masters latest post includes some positive thoughts and a great TED talk by Susan Joy Hassol, all about communicating regarding climate change.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/the-top-ten-reasons-to-be-hopeful-on-climate-change

    Reply
  52. Greg

     /  December 16, 2015

    Next week’s temp anomalies in North America:

    Reply
  53. Greg

     /  December 16, 2015

    Those are 3-6 standard deviations from the norm! and are in Celsius on the chart above:

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  December 16, 2015

      That’s 3-6 standard deviations for precipitable water. Fraction included in 6σ is 1 / 506797346!

      Reply
      • Greg

         /  December 16, 2015

        Basically the above show, at this point, a severe weather event coming Christmas week that you just don’t see for December. Very warm air, high dewpoints, PWAT’s well over 2″, and a jet showing up on the GFS across the Eastern Gulf. (Thanks to stormtrackerscott).

        Reply
    • Boston’s going to get clobbered!😮

      Reply
  54. James Burton

     /  December 16, 2015


    British Tories want to get Fracking! Britain needs to frack!

    Reply
  55. Apneaman

     /  December 16, 2015

    “It’s been the cause of all my sorrow
    But I think I’ll start tomorrow
    ‘Cause I sure could use a hit right now”

    India says Paris climate deal won’t affect plans to double coal output

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-summit-india-coal-idUSKBN0TX15F20151214

    Reply
  56. NWS OPC ‏@NWSOPC 11m11 minutes ago

    Active #weather in the Pacific continues w/another hurricane force low expected in the #BeringSea in 48hrs.

    Reply
  57. ‘In the 2015 Arctic Report Card, scientists wrote:

    In 1985, 20% of the ice pack was very old ice, but in March 2015 old ice only constituted 3% of the ice pack. Furthermore, we note that first-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising ~70% of the March 2015 ice pack, compared to about half that in the 1980s.’

    Reply
  58. NWS Kansas City ‏@NWSKansasCity 20h20 hours ago

    “Dreaming” may be the only way many people see a white Christmas this year

    Reply
  59. WIRED Photo ‏@WIREDPhoto 49m49 minutes ago

    The spectacular, rip-roaring waves of Lake Erie’s ‘November Witch’

    Reply
  60. – Banality, Evil, and Terrorism by another name writ large: or Radicalized by Idiots.

    Hatred, Insults and Even Death Threats Over Climate Science?

    Here are some actual quotes from mail, emails, and phone messages to climate scientists:

    “You and your colleagues … ought to be shot, quartered and fed to the pigs”

    Wedding Giant Turns to Size 14 Bride in Ads

    “Just a quick note to encourage you to do the right thing and shoot yourself in the head”

    “Wanker, you wanker you nead (sic) to be killed”

    Taxi & Limo Drivers Block Center City Streets in Protest

    “Beware of retribution upon yours. Someone somewhere will hunt you down”

    “I hope someone puts a bullet between your eyes”

    VideoNew Mom’s Fiance, Mother Die in Crash on Way to Hospital

    “I hope your child sees your head in a basket after you’ve been guillotined”

    We’re talking about scientists here — people who have studied calculus and physics most of their lives, working behind-the-scenes. If they were interested in being celebrities they could have gone into the TV weather field…

    Many of those targeted by the above quotes are well-known in the Climate Change world: Michael Mann, Benjamin Santer, Phil Jones, and Katharine Hayhoe. Other climate scientists talk in more general terms about some of their “correspondence”…..

    “a climate modeler was delivered a dead rat on his doorstep”

    “an MIT hurricane researcher’s inbox was flooded with hate mail and threats directed at him and his wife”

    “in Australia in 2011, several climatologists were moved to a secure facility after climate-change skeptics began a barrage of vandalism, noose brandishing, and threats of sexual attacks on the scientists’ children”

    “…involve hastening my demise by inserting some oversized hardware into a secluded part of my anatomy”

    http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/Glenn-Schwartz-Blog-Climate-Change-Anger-362666561.html#ixzz3uVwVEmJ4

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  December 16, 2015

      That infuriates me. Ignorant fools terrorizing the most intelligent among us. It’s the embodiment of the Dunning-Kruger effect. These deniers are stupid enough to think scientists are in it for the money, yet Exxon-Mobil and the most profitable corporations in the history of the world aren’t. You have to be detached from reality and incapable of logical reasoning to take such a viewpoint.

      Reply
      • Jacob

         /  December 18, 2015

        “You have to be detached from reality and incapable of logical reasoning to take such a viewpoint.”

        Unfortunately, a substantial (all too large) portion of people truly are that detached from reality.

        Reply
  61. – My reply to:” Vic / December 16, 2015

    I have a couple of questions for an open minded person like yourself Jeremy.

    Would an Exxon Mobil or a Putin or a Koch have anything to gain by spreading fear, uncertainty, doubt and disunity at a place like RS ?

    If so, what form might it take ?”

    – These people are ruthless and devious. They operate on the wrong side of reality — and history. They will spread their odious lies and diversions wherever they think it will stick.

    Reply
  62. Colorado Bob

     /  December 16, 2015

    Will Global Warming Heat Us Beyond Our Physical Limits?

    If we don’t cut greenhouse gases, it’s not just storms and rising seas we’d have to worry about. The heat alone could kill a lot of us.

    SAN FRANCISCO, Calif.—If greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, rising temperatures and humidity wrought by global warming could expose hundreds of millions of people worldwide to potentially lethal heat stress by 2060, a new report suggests.

    Link

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  December 16, 2015

      So not only will there be more days that push the limits of what humans can handle, but more people will be exposed to those conditions.

      While the numbers would vary from year-to-year, the researchers estimate that by the 2060s, some 700 million people could experience a wet-bulb threshold of about 90°F (32°C) per year, with one or two such events per year. “So they’re not rare events,” Coffel said. About 250 million could experience about a 91°F (33°C) event, and 50 million a 93°F (34°C) one.

      Link

      Reply
    • – Absolutely bad news of a torturous and foreseeable kind. The classic definition of Hell if their ever was one.

      Reply
  63. Abel Adamski

     /  December 16, 2015

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-15/shift-in-australias-plankton-population-threatens-food-chain/7027588

    Change in Australia’s plankton population, as climate changes, threatens human food chain
    By Jane Ryan

    Posted Tue at 6:49am
    Plankton collected in the Pacific Ocean
    Photo: Plankton are tiny marine organisms which are a crucial food source for many large marine mammals and fish. (CNRS/Tara Expeditions: Christian Sardet)
    Related Story: Global marine food chain collapse looms: researchers
    Related Story: ‘Prepare for the worst’: Global bleaching creates coral graveyards
    Map: TAS

    Australia’s plankton population, a vital key in the human food chain, has moved 300 kilometres south in 30 years, new research has found.

    Scientists attributed the shift to the warming oceans caused by climate change.

    In some regions there was also a shift from cold-water to warm-water plankton species.
    Key points:

    Plankton produces about half the oxygen humans breathe
    Determines numbers of fish, marine mammals and turtles in a region
    Populations have moved 300km south in 30 years
    Scientists attribute move to climate change

    The Plankton 2015 report from the CSIRO is based on data from the Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS), which looks at why plankton is important to ocean health.

    The report’s lead author, Dr Anthony Richardson, said how much plankton there is, and where it is, determines how many fish, marine mammals and turtles are in the sea.

    “The key findings are that plankton, which are really important to people, are changing and changing really in response to climate change,” he said.

    “Plankton are responsible for about half the oxygen we breathe, and are critical to the marine food web.

    “They can impact human life.

    Reply
  64. Abel Adamski

     /  December 16, 2015

    NOAA Discounting AGW in the current weather patterns and el Nino ?

    http://twitchy.com/2015/12/16/alarmists-hardest-hit-noaa-says-global-warming-plays-an-insignificant-role-in-current-warm-temps/

    HALPERT: Yeah. It’s an atmospheric pattern, and it relates basically the pressures at the polar regions to the pressures in the mid-latitudes where we live. It becomes much more newsworthy, typically, when we’re very cold here because that’s associated with the negative phase of the Arctic oscillation oftentimes. And what that means, is that the polar vortex, which may be surprising to some but not to a meteorologist – the polar vortex, which is located around the pole, weakens and allows cold air to spill out. This year, we’re seeing the opposite. So we’ve had a strong polar vortex, and it’s cold up at the polls but not really anywhere else.

    SHAPIRO: OK. So El Nino plays a roll. The Arctic oscillation plays a role. What about climate change? Is that playing a role?

    HALPERT: If it is, it’s probably fairly insignificant at this point. If it were to play a role, it would be more likely if, somehow, climate change is impacting either the Arctic oscillation or El Nino, and we’re not really aware that it is at this point. If you think about, maybe – the high temperature over the weekend was 70, so maybe without climate change, it would’ve been 69. I think it’s a fairly insignificant role, if any role at all.

    Interesting:

    Reply
  65. Colorado Bob

     /  December 16, 2015

    More extreme weather is causing more blackouts; some US utilities unprepared and underfunded
    UPGRADES ARE COSTLY, BUT SO ARE OUTAGES

    When Hurricane Irene hit the Northeast in 2011, it marked the first time in the history of Con Ed that more than 200,000 customers lost power from a storm. Superstorm Sandy struck just 14 months later, quickly followed by a devastating Nor’easter, leaving 1.1 million customers in the dark.

    “It was clear to us that weather patterns were changing fundamentally. Severe weather events were becoming more frequent and devastating,” Allan Drury, a Con Ed spokesman, said in an email.

    Link

    Reply
    • – All American infrastructure is under repaired and underfunded — all of it. All efforts have gone to FF extraction and burning… more cars on clogged degraded road — more inane reasons to use electricity. The citizenry is asleep and ij some sort of moral coma.

      Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  December 16, 2015

      Living in Ct I remember all of those storms very well. I lost power twice for extended periods of time in the span of two months.The way it happened was this; Hurricane Irene hit in late August of 2011 and there was major outages. Then on October 29th we received 20 inches of heavy, wet snow which took thousands of trees and limbs down throughout the area (it had been warm and they were green late in the season) and there were entire towns with 90+ % without power. The storm was completely off the charts. Previous largest Oct snow was something like two inches. My friends were out for 12 days.Halloween was cancelled. Then the following year Hurricane Sandy hit and Halloween was cancelled again! Massive power outages ensued. Then the following winter we were hit with another off the charts storm which dumped 40 inches of snow in parts of the state, doubling the previous record. It’s beyond clear to those who pay attention that we have entered a new era in which the atmosphere can hold far more moisture than it used to. All of the biggest storms and most records have occurred since I was born, in 1981.

      Reply
      • I grew up in Scituate. I remember the noreasters of ’67 and ’72 and the Blizzard of ’78. We thaought the last one was a whopper, the big one! Each time, and after the no-name hurricane [fmrly Gloria] of 1991 the town decided to rebuild the flood defenses and let the private property owners rebuild on the seaside, with additional elevation. After this past winter with all its storms the town was seriously considering retreating from the seashore.

        Reply
  66. Colorado Bob

     /  December 16, 2015

    As I have said before, it’s the very small things that own our world , we serve at their pleasure .

    And all those small things are already living in a new world.

    Honduras has ‘ecological catastrophe’ with Southern pine beetle

    The southern pine bark beetle is a tenacious critter, native to the forests of the southern United States, Mexico and Central America. While it’s always been present in Honduran forests, climate change has vastly increased the beetle’s numbers.

    The sudden explosion of southern pine beetles this year in Honduras is being blamed on a warming climate by some scientists, but to the 350 soldiers of the First Artillery Battalion in Zambrano province, just north of the Honduran capital, the war they are fighting against the tree-munching bug is an effort in futility.

    Read more: Link

    Reply
  67. Griffin

     /  December 16, 2015

    OK folks, please help me out. I swear that I try to stay connected in this world but somehow the impending allowance of US oil exports was completely lost on me. This is beyond insanity at this point. Does this actually have a chance to be signed by the President?
    http://www.bigstory.ap.org/ba5445dbae1a449984bf691556bd64e9

    Reply
    • Apneaman

       /  December 17, 2015

      At the current price of oil combined with their massive debt, the shale ponzi scheme is almost done, so it probably won’t make much difference to them. This is about crude only, but US refineries have always exported refined products anyway and I do not believe there has ever been any restrictions on that. We have been beyond insanity for decades.

      Reply
    • Greg

       /  December 17, 2015

      There was horse trading. The oil companies got some more money and renewables were given multiple extensions of tax credits.

      Reply
    • Griffin

       /  December 17, 2015

      So I guess that means that all the intentions agreed upon in Paris were, really and truly, bullshit.

      Reply
    • Andy in SD

       /  December 17, 2015

      The cost to extract a barrel of oil is below the market price (and has been for some time). ie: Saudi’s break even is $106/barrel. The middle east producers are now buying up refineries in Asia to secure their markets and get more margin. Shale oil, and domestic oil can’t be profitable as the rig counts are falling precipitously.

      This could be a play for more tax credits, shore up share prices, entice investors to keep the small players afloat, be prepared for higher prices. It could be some or all of those.

      However, with the price war going on, I just can’t see them compete unless they get govt subsidies (and of course they’ll buy a few politician to try to get that rolling).

      Reply
      • Griffin

         /  December 17, 2015

        Thank you all for the comments above. My heartbreak was with the message that will be communicated to the world regarding the intentions of the USA. Regardless of the current market conditions and the real world impact of lifting the ban, it is a symbolic embrace of oil majors as our masters that is conveyed in headlines nationwide. As a nation, we have not returned from Paris determined to roll back the speed of our demise, we have hastened to sign into law the very definition of “business as usual”.
        While a rise solar stocks is a welcome development, unfortunately we are out of the time required to rely on a slow rise to market competitiveness based on tax credits to consumers. The urgency that is lost today will be expressed as energy that gives rise to the emblematic catalog of our folly, The Keeling Curve.

        Reply
      • Greg

         /  December 17, 2015

        Griffin, I agree that it isn’t the messaging we want. However, the big picture is that money is moving to the future – renewables – and a real multi-year fight has begun with a back and forth ugly knock down of these dragons. It won’t be pretty as trillions of dollars will be lost by the incumbent players and they are going to fight dirty and hard but its a real fight now, not just talk like it was only a few years ago.

        Reply
    • Signed: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-18/congress-just-passed-second-patriot-act-and-nobody-noticed-how-cisa-became-law

      Of course, that’s not the only thing wrong with the omnibus bill, as noted in the article.

      Reply
  68. Colorado Bob

     /  December 17, 2015

    When things get mad, and looks like your not gonna make it then you gotta get mean I mean plum mad dog mean,

    Reply
  69. Colorado Bob

     /  December 17, 2015

    Why Malala Yousafzai is taking on Donald Trump (+video)

    A travel ban for Muslims proposed by Donald Trump drew stark criticism from the young Nobel laureate, who called the plan ‘tragic.’

    http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2015/1216/Why-Malala-Yousafzai-is-taking-on-Donald-Trump-video

    Reply
  70. Colorado Bob

     /  December 17, 2015

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  December 17, 2015

      So That is why they call it a shot glass. Always learnin’ from ya, Colorado….

      Reply
  71. Abel Adamski

     /  December 17, 2015

    And from the Torygraph
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12052582/Even-if-the-global-warming-scare-were-a-hoax-we-would-still-need-it.html

    They are like all good Ho’s following the trend.
    Even if the global warming scare were a hoax, we would still need it
    China is the low-carbon superpower and will be the ultimate enforcer of the COP21 climate deal in Paris

    Chinese scientists have published two alarming reports in a matter of weeks. Both conclude that the Himalayan glaciers and the Tibetan permafrost are succumbing to catastrophic climate change, threatening the water systems of the Yellow River, the Yangtze and the Mekong.

    The Tibetan plateau is the world’s “third pole”, the biggest reservoir of fresh water outside the Arctic and Antarctica. The area is warming at twice the global pace, making it the epicentre of global climate risk.

    One report was by the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The other was a 900-page door-stopper from the science ministry, called the “Third National Assessment Report on Climate Change”.

    The latter is the official line of the Communist Party. It states that China has already warmed by 0.9-1.5 degrees over the past century – higher than the global average – and may warm by a further five degrees by 2100, with effects that would overwhelm the coastal cities of Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangzhou. The message is that China faces a civilizational threat.

    Whether or not you accept the hypothesis of man-made global warming is irrelevant. The Chinese Academy and the Politburo do accept it. So does President Xi Jinping, who spent his Cultural Revolution carting coal in the mining region of Shaanxi. This political fact is tectonic for the global fossil industry and the economics of energy.

    Until last Saturday, it was an article of faith among Western climate sceptics and some in the fossil industry that China would never sign up to the COP21 accord in Paris or accept the “ratchet” of five-year reviews.

    They have since fallen back to a second argument, claiming that the deal is meaningless because China will not sacrifice coal-driven growth to please the West, and without China the accord unravels since it now emits as much CO2 as the US and Europe combined.

    This political judgment was perhaps plausible three or four years ago in the dying days of the Hu Jintao era. Today it is clutching at straws.

    And the denier experts are on it like flies on a dog egg

    Reply
  72. Spike

     /  December 17, 2015

    Climate change is rapidly warming lakes around the world, threatening freshwater supplies and ecosystems, according to a study spanning six continents. If these rates continue, emissions of methane, a greenhouse gas 25 times more powerful than carbon dioxide on 100-year time scales, will increase 4 percent over the next decade.

    https://news.wsu.edu/2015/12/16/study-climate-change-rapidly-warming-worlds-lakes/

    Reply
  73. Jeremy

     /  December 17, 2015

    FLOP21 – BULLSHIT!

    The government has decided to cut subsidies to householders installing rooftop solar panels by 65% just days after agreeing to move swiftly to a low-carbon energy future at the climate change conference in Paris.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/dec/17/uk-solar-panel-subsidies-slashed-paris-climate-change

    Reply
  74. Jeremy

     /  December 17, 2015

    The lunatics running the uk are subsidizing diesel generation instead.
    Bring on the storms!

    “The government is facing calls for an urgent investigation into how companies were awarded more than £175m in subsidies to build heavily polluting “diesel farms” to provide the UK with backup energy generating capacity.

    Critics said an energy generation auction overseen by the National Grid had descended into a farce by rewarding intensive carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters, just as ministers committed Britain to lower carbon emissions at UN climate change talks in Paris.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/dec/11/diesel-farms-built-subsidies-national-grid-auction

    Reply
  75. Jeremy

     /  December 17, 2015

    At last some good news!

    Global Warming is bankrupting the Energy industry

    http://ponziworld.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/global-warming-is-obliterating-energy.html

    Reply
  76. Kevin Jones

     /  December 17, 2015

    UK MET office predicting 2016 global temps. 0.12C above this years. Different base than GISS but would put it at about .96C above 1951-1980. From BBC Sorry my machine won’t produce link.

    Reply
  77. Kevin Jones

     /  December 17, 2015

    Robert. If UK MET prediction for 2016 holds true wouldn’t this put us about 1.2C above pre-industrial?

    Reply
  78. Jeremy

     /  December 17, 2015

    India doesn’t give a shit.

    “India still plans to double coal output by 2020 and rely on the resource for decades afterwards, a senior official said on Monday, days after rich and poor countries agreed in Paris to curb carbon emissions blamed for global warming.”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-summit-india-coal-idUSKBN0TX15F20151214

    Reply
  79. Jeremy

     /  December 17, 2015

    Nor do Americans.

    FLOP21 = BULLSHITT

    “Surging demand for trucks and SUVs fueled by cheap gasoline is holding back improvements in U.S. fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions, a government report due out on Wednesday is expected to show.”

    “In November, fuel efficiency of vehicles purchased fell sharply to 25 mpg – down 0.8 mpg from a peak in August 2014, said University of Michigan researcher Michael Sivak, who tracks fuel efficiency.”

    “Nearly 59 percent of U.S. vehicle sales this year have been of sport-utility vehicles, pickup trucks or other larger vehicles, up from 54 percent last year, according to industry consultant Autodata Corp.”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-emissions-idUSKBN0TZ0HY20151216

    Reply
  80. Apneaman

     /  December 17, 2015

    Fracking under national parks backed by MPs

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-35107203

    That’s fracking and slash solar subsidies for the UK

    SUV sales up in the US

    A big Fuck You to the world regarding coal by, China, India and Japan.

    All this in less than a week since the “agreement”. Of course these are all page 3 stories that most won’t see. The coverage of these stories is minuscule compared to the full court press given to the “agreement” by the corporate/1% owned MSM. Just one more propaganda coup for the rich. It’s not like anyone is putting a gun to peoples heads to go out and buy SUVs on subprime auto loans (7 year financing) or all the rest of the needless dopamine dripping consumer goodies. Call it stupid or call it human nature or call it both, but it’s obvious most people are inflicted with short termism. That’s what will be written on the naked apes death certificate under cause of death/extinction – a lethal dose of short termism.

    Reply
  81. Jeremy

     /  December 17, 2015

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  December 17, 2015

      I asked for a bottle of Jack They served goddam Cognac…. Thanks Jeremy. Made my morning….

      Reply
  82. Wharf Rat

     /  December 17, 2015

    Groups Ask Columbia University To Reveal Funding Behind Exxon-Tied Center on Global Energy Policy

    http://www.desmogblog.com/2015/12/17/advocacy-groups-letter-columbia-university-exxon-center-global-energy-policy-funders

    Reply
  83. Andy in SD

     /  December 18, 2015

    The world’s lakes are warming faster than both the oceans and the air around them, a global survey of hundreds of lakes shows.

    http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/12/earth-s-lakes-are-warming-faster-its-air

    Reply
    • mlparrish

       /  December 18, 2015

      The issue is more complicated than that. Here is an excerpt from Snopes. com, which called the quote mostly true. I can see the residents’ point about being completely surrounded by solar panels.

      “The original reported that three solar farms “had previously been accepted by the town council,” adding that a proposal to rezone part of the land north of town was subsequently rejected in the meeting:

      The Woodland Town Council rejected a proposal to rezone a section of land north of town to M2 (manufacturing) from RA (residential/agricultural), essentially denying approval of a solar farm … Later in the meeting, the Town Council voted for a complete moratorium on solar farms.

      During the public comment period preceding the rezoning vote, citizens expressed distrust and fear of the solar panels.

      Mary Hobbs has been living in Woodland for 50 years and said she has watched it slowly becoming a ghost town with no job opportunities for young people.

      She said her home is surrounded by solar farms and is no longer worth its value because of those facilities.

      She added that the only people profiting are the landowners who sell their land, the solar companies, and the electrical companies.

      Notably, among concerns registered were those like Hobbs’; some residents simply worried that the burgeoning solar industry would further depress the local economy and tank the values of their homes (asserting that such damage had already been done.) Others expressed concerns unrelated to property value: . . . “

      Reply
  84. Andy in SD

     /  December 18, 2015

    A solar farm has been rejected in North Carolina, after residents expressed fears that it would suck up all the energy from the sun.

    http://www.timeslive.co.za/scitech/2015/12/15/US-town-blocks-solar-farm—because-it-fears-there-wont-be-any-sun-left-for-plants

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  December 18, 2015

      Ugh, Americans are the worst, aren’t we? Isn’t North Carolina also the sate that made sea level rise illegal?

      Reply
      • mlparrish

         /  December 18, 2015

        Miss hit the proper place for the note about the NC solar farms. Sorry. Please see just above Andy’s post.

        Reply
  85. redskylite

     /  December 18, 2015

    I’m both sickened and saddened at this news from Adelaide (Australia) today, a young man (working on a domestic building site) was taken to hospital after succumbing to heatstroke the temperature was around 41 degrees Celsius, he is seriously affected, maybe damaged for life. I always thought Australia was a developed, caring country who cared and respected it’s workers.

    I’m pretty pissed about my own government (across the ditch), who think they have done a good job in Paris (Cop21), awarded themselves a juicy pay-rise and stuck by oil exploration permits (I’m gutted).

    At least Robert Scribbler keeps working on awareness, and people on this site echo my frustrations.

    Please keep on – the message must sink in eventually.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-18/sa-heatwave-extreme-fire-danger-warnings/7039444

    Reply
  86. wili

     /  December 18, 2015

    “Oil, gas, and coal still make up about 86 percent of the world’s energy supply — a fraction that has barely budged since 1997”

    We have not come very far in the last two decades, yet we have a very, very long way to go in a very, very short time.

    We have to take a hard look at what will be necessary to get there.

    http://www.vox.com/2015/12/14/10121638/fossil-fuel-dominance

    Reply
    • wili

       /  December 18, 2015

      I can’t remember the ultimate source, but someone in the old Peak Oil circles used to say, “We don’t have an energy shortage as much as an expectations longage.”

      The 14% of world energy supplied by renewables can only quickly become the vast majority by rapidly slashing energy demand. Basically, we are three halvings away from an essentially ff-free economy. If we cut global energy demand in half (and all that cutting comes from ffs), suddenly renewables are 28% of the pie. Do that again, and we are at 56%…

      Where would the cuts come from?
      First, non-essential activities like most airplane flights.
      Other luxury activities like meat eating would mostly have to go.
      Manufacturing would be cut back to essentials, as would most new building.
      New use of energy would be mostly restricted to building of renewables and to rapidly increasing efficiency–insulate homes and businesses,etc–and to building out public transportation.
      But a lot of the shifts would have to come in behavior–more people living together increases efficiency of those spaces lived in.
      Besides a greater reliance on public transport, a shift from about one person per car on average to more like four or five would effectively get two halvings from the non-public sector of the public transport economy.
      Generally, we would all need to reuse what we have, buy and manufacture very little, and travel hardly at all. This would require sacrifice, but what is more worthy of some sacrifice than the chance for a livable future on this planet for future generations?

      Reply
      • dnem

         /  December 18, 2015

        All true, but this is what we’re up against: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TM8L7bdwVaA

        I don’t know how this got disseminated, but the powers that be (National Retail Federation?) managed to get this don’t worry, be happy, go shop message placed at dozens of local news outlets across all the networks. Frightening.

        Reply
      • wili

         /  December 18, 2015

        Yeah, that kind of crap is the default at least implicit message everywhere, and occasionally as here more explicit. It always causes me grief when I see ads for cars or plane travel or some such next to articles about GW devastations, sometimes even in ‘Big Green’ publications. We all have to at least start talking the talk consistently rather than sending mixed messages.

        It’s nice to have one place, at least, on the net where we can talk about these things among sane people (well, mostly sane, anyway ‘-)).

        None of us has all the answers, but hashing through the enormity of the situation with other folks who are not drenched in some level of denial is some consolation for living inside the shear horror that is our time.

        Reply
      • wili

         /  December 18, 2015

        (sheer–I’ve always been a bit spelling challenged!)

        Reply
  87. Griffin

     /  December 18, 2015

    It won’t be easy to make the transition without massive government help. You mentioned most airplane flights. While you are very correct that we could do without most of the aircraft trips that people make, there is a problem inherent with stopping. Massive numbers of citizens are supported through aircraft travel. Not just pilots and crew and technicians, but all of those who are indirectly supported by the industry. From the caterers that work far behind the scenes to some folks that you never knew existed who are busy overhauling fuel pumps in a place that is nowhere near an airport. The number of people who make a living from aviation is tremendous. If the aircraft stop flying, they are out on their ass quick. The domino effect would get going quickly if those folks don’t have an alternative way of making good money. Are we willing to increase welfare to support those whose lifestyle was formerly tied to how much fuel was burned?
    I don’t have the answers, that’s for sure.

    Reply
    • dnem

       /  December 18, 2015

      Griff, that’s the crux. I believe the economic system is actually less resilient than the natural one and will implode when and if the growth on which it is dependent is ever curtailed.

      Reply
    • wili

       /  December 18, 2015

      Good point, Griff. Ideally, there would be careful retraining and re-employment coordinated by the government to minimize the inevitable disruptions. There will be plenty to do in the new economy, from urban (and regular) farming, to super-insulating houses and other buildings, to building, installing and maintaining alternative energy systems…But much of that will need Depression-era-like jobs programs, imho.

      Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  December 19, 2015

      You make a good point, Wili. The amount of people employed either directly or indirectly from fossil fuels, their infrastructure and building, repairing and maintaining all the billions of engines, gadgets and whats-its that use fossil fuels is staggering. They have been growing more integrated in all aspects of our economy for over 200 years (since about 1860s for oil), and are now responsible for a significant portion of our economy. Many industries are dependent upon fossil fuels to exist…the airline industry and all that it entails is a perfect example.

      Reply
  88. Colorado Bob

     /  December 18, 2015

    Clemson releases PSA documentary on this year’s drought and flood
    ‘We don’t know where we’re going to go from here’

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  December 18, 2015

      One billion dollars. That’s the estimated cost of crop, infrastructure, and equipment loss from this year’s one-two environmental punch, a severe summer drought followed by 11 trillion gallons of water dumped on the state during October’s 1,000-year rain storm. Peanut and cotton crops were lost, kale and broccoli where wiped out, and farmers are still wrapping their heads around recovery.

      To give citizens a better understanding of the impact to farmers, Clemson University has released “Treading Water” a documentary PSA. In the 12-minute video, farmers discuss what they’re facing.

      http://www.charlestoncitypaper.com/Eat/archives/2015/12/17/clemson-releases-psa-documentary-on-this-years-drought-and-flood

      Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  December 19, 2015

      Sad to see such devastation. What struck me was when this was described as a “once in a generation storm”. When will we stop using this to describe events that are very clearly happening much more frequently? It’s obvious to anybody who can remember longer than one year, or can access national news, that the magnitude and frequency of meteorological events has dramatically increased. My comment above about the 2011-12 storms that hit New England is a perfect example. We were slammed with four “once in a generation” storms in the span of about 18 months. We had hurricane Irene in late August of 2011, which ended up destroying huge swaths of infrastructure from here (Ct) up into Vermont, something that was unprecedented for that state. Then right before Halloween we were hit with a record smashing, unprecedented snowstorm that was termed “Arborgeddon” due to the amount of trees downed. I had never seen such widespread devastation in my state, ever. We got 20+ inches of wet, heavy snow on trees that still had leaves due to a warm, long lasting summer/fall. The previous record snow for Oct was something like 2 inches. This was off the charts. Over a million customers lost power, some for two weeks. Then the following October we were hit with hurricane Sandy, which everyone remembers. Then in the subsequent winter we were hit with storm Nemo (I think it was Nemo, the local station can name winter storms differently from that of national weather services) which dumped 30-40 inches of snow across the state, which doubled the previous largest snowfall of 22 inches. Again, this was off the charts and unprecedented. The top five largest snowfalls have all occurred since I was born, four since 2000. The atmosphere is warmer, holds more moisture, and can produce stronger and more intense storms. We need to start realizing this fact. I mean that in general, of course, since everyone here reading this already knows the atmosphere holds 7-8% more moisture.

      Reply
      • Griffin

         /  December 19, 2015

        Great point Ryan. The snow of “Arbogeddon” seemed to damage, in varying degrees, every single hardwood tree in my area. Incredible amount of damage.
        You could also toss in the June 1, 2011 tornado that tore up 39 miles of Massachusetts and left a scar that is still visible from space!
        On a side note to that, if anyone has ever seen firsthand the destruction that a half-mile wide tornado will leave while moving through a densely wooded area, it is not easily forgotten!

        Reply
      • Ryan in New England

         /  December 19, 2015

        That was incredible, wasn’t it Griffin? That early snowstorm changed the woods for a generation in this area. Like you point out, there were huge areas where nearly every tree was damaged or destroyed. Many towns, including my own, saw 90%+ outages. Want to know what life is like without electricity? It’s the end of modern society. Nobody could get gas, because the pumps wouldn’t work. People were fighting (reports of someone pulling a gun) at gas stations that were open. Food spoiled (fortunately it was cold so that didn’t happen too quickly) and stores were closed. There was no heat for many and there was a thick haze in the Farmington Valley from all of the fires in fireplaces and wood stoves. People were becoming unruly and agitated and couldn’t cope. We are more vulnerable than people realize.

        I live in Bristol, and incredibly there have been three tornadoes hit the town since 1984! Two were minor, but the one in 1984 was a F2 I believe. That one hit my Grandparents neighborhood the day my family had come over to swim. It missed their home but tore the roofs and/or second floor off the other homes on the street. There are pics in the local papers of a little me with my big rake and tiny wheel-barrow helping clear debris. It made me terrified of the wind and storms until I was a teen. Then I became fascinated by extreme weather. That tornadoes was nothing like the one in Mass. That one had some power. Much more energy in the atmosphere to draw upon.

        Reply
      • Griffin

         /  December 20, 2015

        Yes Ryan, that snowstorm really showed how vulnerable we are to trees pulling down the black wires of life that we rely on every day! It was old school living for a while there.
        I share your fascination with the extreme weather. Sometimes I wonder if all of this climate change is predetermined in the path of my life. It is truly the embodiment of my deepest fears of what nature is capable of.

        Reply
  89. NWS OPC ‏@NWSOPC Dec 17

    CIRA layered PW helps visualize #AtmosphericRiver aimed at Pacific NW; @NWSWPC 7D QPF shows impressive precip totals

    Reply
  90. Nacreous clouds appear around the Arctic Circle

    Polar stratospheric clouds, also known as nacreous clouds (from nacre, or mother of pearl), are icy structures that form in the lower stratosphere (15 – 25 km) when temperatures drop to around -85 ºC (-121 ºF). They are best observed when the Sun is between 1 and 6 degrees below the horizon.

    “High-altitude sunlight shining through tiny ice particles ~10µm across produce the characteristic bright iridescent colors by diffraction and interference. Once thought to be mere curiosities, some PSCs are now known to be associated with the destruction of ozone,” Dr. Tony Phillips of the SpaceWeather.com explains.

    Truls Tiller photographed these over Tromsø city, Norway, on December 16, 2015:

    Reply
  91. Abel Adamski

     /  December 18, 2015

    And just for fun
    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/charts-and-statistics-on-global-warming-climate-change-2015-12?r=UK&IR=T

    Global temperatures have become so hot that even the charts used by climate change deniers show that it’s getting warmer

    I was curious to see what climate changed deniers made of all this.

    So I went over to WattsUpWithThat, a climate-change denier site that gets 820,000 visitors a month, according to Similar Web, and claims to be “the world’s most viewed site on global warming and climate change.” To his credit, WUWT’s November update republishes the same data from NASA. But despite all those upward-pointing lines, it won’t admit that global warming is happening.

    Reply
  92. Colorado Bob

     /  December 18, 2015

    2015 Was The Costliest Wildfire Season Ever

    Burning through over 9.8 million acres — an area roughly the size of Massachusetts and Connecticut combined — the 2015 wildfire season was one of the worst on record.

    It also ended up being the most expensive wildfire season on record, costing the U.S. Forest Service $1.71 billion for the year, according to USA Today. That total surpasses the previous record of $1.67 billion set in 2002.

    This year’s fire season got off to an unusually early start, with fires raging in California as early as February. Even now, there are still a few fires burning throughout the West, and they are expected to push the 2015 total of acres burned over the 2006 record.

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/18/3733730/2015-wildfire-season-most-expensive/

    Reply
  93. Colorado Bob

     /  December 18, 2015

    Indonesia forest fires cost twice as much as tsunami clean-up, says World Bank

    Fires cloaking south-east Asia in haze have cost Indonesia $16bn in 2015, more than double the sum spent on rebuilding Aceh after the 2004 tsunami

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/15/indonesia-forest-fires-cost-twice-as-much-as-tsunami-clean-up-says-world-bank

    Reply
  94. Colorado Bob

     /  December 18, 2015

    The Think Progress article got me poking around the fire beat . So I when and looked at the Lance Modis Gallery, big mistake.
    12/5/2015

    Dust, fires, and smoke across Western Africa

    Reply
  95. Colorado Bob

     /  December 18, 2015

    Free association strikes again . And he’s wearing my current wardrobe.

    Harry Nilsson ~ Jump Into The Fire ~ Nilsson Schmilsson

    Reply
  96. Colorado Bob

     /  December 18, 2015

    The thread at TP on the fire bill this year –

    Fred Smith
    So what are you libTARDS going to say next year when the season is lower than normal because of the El Nino? Yeah, crickets. It’s about WEATHER not climate change. The West has been in a La Nina cycle which has ALWAYS resulted in dryer and warmer conditions.

    That is FACT. Deal with it.

    Colorado Bob
    Fred –

    The only facts you are in of command are the ones you pull out of your ass.

    The BBFF
    Butt Based Fact File You just reach around and pull that crap out of your ass.

    Reply
  97. Colorado Bob

     /  December 18, 2015

    Real Coal for Christmas: No Longer Just a Child’s Nightmare

    This holiday season, a new business is booming. For fun or revenge, people are gifting lumps of coal, including “Clumps for Trump.”

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/energy/2015/12/151218-real-coal-for-christmas-not-just-a-child-nightmare/

    Reply
  98. Colorado Bob

     /  December 18, 2015

    Bob Henson has a new post up from the AGU meeting –

    Common Thread at 2015 AGU Conference: The Big Melt

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3208#commenttop

    Reply
    • – 38 min.
      FM15 Press Conference Arctic Report Card 2015

      Reply
    • Permafrost is thawing across the Arctic, causing northern lands to sink or change shape. In Gates of the Arctic National Park, a bank of this lake thawed in the summer of 2014, allowing the Okokmilaga River to cut through and drain it to sea.
      Image credit: Howcheng/US National Park Service/Wikimedia Commons.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  December 19, 2015

        dtl –
        Several years ago , in extreme Northeast Canada a whole valley thawed in just 2 days in a National Park. What was interesting was how it happened.

        It was like British type valley , and all the top 2 feet just melted and slumped into the bottom.
        They closed the Park You couldn’t move from A to B. Several dozen people were trapped for days. This idea we will farm the north really sticks in my craw.

        Reply
  99. – “defaunation”

    Missing Tropical Animals Could Hasten Climate Change
    The decline of large animals in the forest impacts the storage of carbon in trees

    As go toucans, spider monkeys and tapirs, so goes the climate.

    Put another way, the hunting and poaching of tropical animals could change the face of rainforests such as the Amazon, diminishing their ability to store global carbon dioxide emissions by up to 20 percent.

    Hunting and poaching threatens 19 percent of all tropical forest vertebrates, with large vertebrates, including frugivores, disproportionately favored by hunters, the study says. As the frugivore population declines—a process called “defaunation”—fewer seeds of carbon-dense trees are spread throughout the forest, study co-author Mauro Galetti, a Sao Paulo State University ecologist, said.

    “The result is a new forest dominated by smaller trees with milder woods which stock less carbon,” study lead author Carolina Bello, a Sao Paulo State University PhD student, said in a statement.
    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/missing-tropical-animals-could-hasten-climate-change/

    Reply
  100. wili

     /  December 19, 2015

    http://www.commondreams.org/views/2015/12/16/paris-climate-talks-and-15c-target-wartime-scale-mobilization-our-only-option-left?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=socialnetwork
    “The Paris Climate Talks and the 1.5C Target: Wartime-Scale Mobilization is Our Only Option Left”

    “We believe humanity can still prevent civilization-destroying global warming – but only if we undertake a WWII-scale Mobilization to restore a safe climate immediately. We need to transition off of fossil fuels and carbon-intensive agriculture as soon as humanly possible. That means an emergency restructuring of the entire economy at wartime speed to achieve net zero emissions in the U.S. by 2025, net zero emissions globally by 2030, as well as an urgent effort to draw down the excess carbon dioxide that has accumulated in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution.”

    Good to hear that at least some group out there is speaking about the urgency needed to have any glimmering chance to avoid the even more horrific consequences than we face from our current and even only slightly higher global temperatures.

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  December 19, 2015

      I wish I had a way of communicating this in a way that would work with the average person that has no idea of the urgency of our situation. Whenever I start to explain just how urgently action is needed, I can see the eyes just glaze over and they start to tune the conversation out. They think I am nuts, I think that they are nuts. Unfortunately, they are not the ones who are correct!

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  December 19, 2015

        Griffin

        Take a deep breath. I have not changed anyone , Events change people . See the flood clip up the thread from South Carolina, those farmers are now teachable.

        And to just lift your mind –

        Reply
      • Tom

         /  December 19, 2015

        People will come to the correct conclusion when it gets so bad that they CAN’T deny it – like when it hits them personally! Of course by then, it’s too late. Don’t worry about it Griffin, just live your life.

        Reply
      • Griffin

         /  December 19, 2015

        Yes, you guys are right unfortunately. That’s a good one Bob, I like the gorilla suits!

        Reply
      • Ryan in New England

         /  December 19, 2015

        I understand completely, Griffin. I am endlessly frustrated and disappointment has permeated my soul. The more the science tells us we need to change yesterday, the less people seem to care. Everybody is always talking about the crazy weather, but if you dare bring up the reason we’re seeing these changes, they become disinterested at best, and hostile at worst, regurgitating worn out debunked denier memes that make me cringe and want to knock their damn teeth out for being so willfully ignorant and embracing anti-science. For the record, I’ve been in one fight in my life and that was when I was 11. I would never hit someone just because they don’t know anything.

        Reply
      • Apropos of CB’s post, Ian Welsh tweeted this out yesterday, and it fits: Still the best guided meditation in the history of forever: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92i5m3tV5XY

        Reply
  101. Colorado Bob

     /  December 19, 2015

    Griffin
    The entire South Carolina congressional delegation voted against Sandy relief. Now they are howling for help.

    Events change people/

    Reply
  102. Colorado Bob

     /  December 19, 2015

    We sink or swim together.

    That needs to be pointed out.

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  December 19, 2015

      Sadly, nobody thinks we need swimming lessons. And they won’t until they’ve sunk us all.

      Reply
  103. Andy in SD

     /  December 19, 2015

    How in the hell can people become educated about (A) how science works, (b) what science is doing to study the climate and (c) how the results are independently verified, dissected and analyzed for inaccuracies.

    How in the hell can this be done, when people are SO stupid that 30% of Republican voters (41% of Trump voters), 19% of Democrat voters support bombing Agrabah the city depicted in the animated Disney film Aladdin.

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/12/18/aladdin_poll_30_percent_of_republican_primary_voters_would_bomb_agrabah.html

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  December 19, 2015

      Well, it really does tie the whole conversation of the lower part of this thread together very nicely! We underestimate just how ignorant the masses can be.

      Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  December 19, 2015

      Andy in SD

      Insert laughter here . Only 39 % of the American public can name the branches of our government. And there only 3.

      Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  December 20, 2015

      It’s astounding and terrifying to realize just how ignorant a huge portion of the population is. Recently heard on the radio at work the results of an interview with Star Wars fans (I admit I do love Star Wars) and they all knew a member of the Galactic Senate but couldn’t name a single sitting U.S. senator. Then the radio personality reading the “news” was asked to name a senator…she couldn’t either. It’s pathetic that grown adults are completely unaware of basic components of the world that we all reside in. They’re totally incurious and at worst, downright hostile to intellectuals and those who have an insatiable appetite for ever more knowledge. And these are the people who get to vote? It almost makes me take the viewpoint of John Adams who said the “rabble” can’t be trusted to govern themselves.

      Reply
  104. Colorado Bob

     /  December 19, 2015

    Griffin
    My entire game plan for my life was to die at age 30. I am 36 years past that .
    I ran off to “to the woods” in 1970. Because the greed , hubris, and mindless consumption , drove me . I never thought I could change it.
    Griffin
    Because the greed , hubris, and mindless consumption you will never change.

    Reply
    • wili

       /  December 19, 2015

      It was a couple years later, and not quite the woods, but that’s pretty close to my story, too.

      Reply
    • Nicholas Swenson

       /  December 19, 2015

      Well. You or I might not change it, but humanity’s extinction will.

      Reply
  105. Andy in SD

     /  December 19, 2015

    Angat water reserves may be enough to last through June – We haven’t seen much yet on drought in Asia. This looks like the remnants of a cyclone gave Manila;s supplies enough to last through to the rainy season.

    the main reservoir for much of Luzon’s water supply, including Manila’s—a PAGASA hydrologist says that recent heavy rains may have replenished water reserves enough to last through the dry season.

    http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/548261/scitech/weather/angat-water-reserves-may-be-enough-to-last-through-june-expert#sthash.lyXBhgLn.dpuf

    Reply
  106. Colorado Bob

     /  December 19, 2015

    Just so none of us despair –

    We are larger than we ever dreamed.

    Herb Alpert – Rise (HQ Audio)

    Reply
  107. Colorado Bob

     /  December 19, 2015

    Life is a funny ole’ dog.

    Reply
  108. Colorado Bob

     /  December 19, 2015

    To lay down like dogs, Or to fight ? That is question .

    Fight the battles you can win. And we are up to our eyeballs in them . Or lay down like dogs.

    Reply
  109. Colorado Bob

     /  December 19, 2015

    RS-
    I started this years ago. Long before you. I was expelled from sites. Because I harp on this.

    Time has come today.

    Reply
  110. Colorado Bob

     /  December 19, 2015

    RS-
    ” Get up stand up”.

    Reply
  111. Colorado Bob

     /  December 19, 2015

    RS-
    No none loves you more than your wife. And I understand the battle.

    Reply
  112. Colorado Bob

     /  December 19, 2015

    I have been a jackass my entire life I have poked every friend. I ever had directly it the eye.

    Reply
  113. redskylite

     /  December 19, 2015

    Travis Mellor is a 17 year old apprentice fighting for his life in Adelaide, Australia, a victim of extremely bad management and excessive heat. Many migrant laborers died in Qatar preparing the country as a soccer world cup hosts. Heat hurts, kills and should be respected. Pray for Travis, pray he recovers and is not impaired for the rest of his life. A bright healthy and hopeful young apprentice struck down by ineptitude and human failings. Failed by the older generation, driven by ignorance and greed.

    Reply
  114. Abel Adamski

     /  December 19, 2015

    Tony Abbots electorate is a Blue Rinse safe Conservative seat, wealthy educated successful voters.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-should-go-say-most-voters-in-his-electorate-poll-20151218-glqto3.html

    Another finding has challenged the accepted wisdom that conservative voters are unfazed by climate change, revealing that even in blue-ribbon Warringah three quarters of electors believe the country should be moving gradually towards the goal of 100 per cent renewable energy by 2030.

    In July this year, Labor leader Bill Shorten released a policy of 50 per cent renewable energy by 2030 prompting derision from the government, which said the 50 per cent target was impractical and potentially ruinous to the economy.

    Interestingly, the poll also found that 77.2 per cent of voters want Australia to move to 100 per cent renewable energy.

    Mr Oquist said the public was ahead of the rhetoric from all political parties “when it comes to renewable energy”.

    And that boys and girls is from the well heeled educated Warringah. voters

    Reply
  115. marianne

     /  December 19, 2015

    Hurricane force winds at Svalbard. Ten houses taken by avalanche, people sent to hospital. It’s the worst storm in 30 years. “Some of the houses seems to have been moved physically, and there is a lot of people at the place, says the journalist of the Svallbard post Christopher Engås” (My lousy translation from the NRK article below. Unfortunately only in norwegian –
    http://www.nrk.no/troms/ti-hus-tatt-av-skred-i-longyearbyen-_-flere-sendt-til-sykehus-1.12712486

    Reply
  116. – Active weather in NE Pac:
    NWS OPC ‏@NWSOPC 18h18 hours ago

    00Z OPC Pacific analysis & GOES-W vis image w/strong 946mb storm in the Bering & another developing low on its heels

    Reply
  117. Homeland Security and Public Safety
    Mitigating for Sea Level Rise, Terrorism on Local to-Do List

    For the first time, county’s plan includes the threat of sea level rise, a reality that’s becoming more apparent as high-tide flooding more frequently swamps area roads.

    Mary Landers, Savannah Morning News, Ga. | December 18, 2015


    For the first time, the 2015 plan includes the threat of sea level rise, a reality that’s becoming more apparent as high-tide flooding more frequently swamps area roads.

    “In all coastal counties we’re seeing a lot of that,” said Margaret Walton, project manager for Atkins, the consulting company that helped produce the plan.

    Hazards that are examined and planned for range from drought to flooding and include natural disasters such as hurricanes, tornados and earthquakes as well as man-made terror threats.

    On Savannah’s to-do list, for example, is providing better protection for its chlorine tanks at the I & D Water Plant “to prevent ease of access to chemical by potential terrorists.”

    http://www.emergencymgmt.com/safety/Mitigating-for-sea-level-rise-terrorism-on-local-to-do-list.html

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  December 19, 2015

      There are very few places as vulnerable to SLR as Savannah. Flat as a draft beer poured the night before and most of it’s infrastructure is right on the water.

      Reply
    • wili

       /  December 19, 2015

      “I’m telling you so you can tell the rest what you’ve been through…”

      Just a song of Gomorrah
      I wonder what they did there
      Must have been a bad thing
      to get shot down for

      I wonder how they blew it up
      or if they tore it down
      Get out, get out, Mr Lot
      and don’t you look around

      Who gave you your orders?
      Someone from the sky
      I heard a voice inside my head
      in the desert wind so dry

      I heard a voice telling me to flee
      The very same voice I always believe
      Said: a lot of trouble coming
      but it don’t have to come to you
      I’m sparing you so you can tell
      the rest what you been through

      But don’t you turn around, no
      Don’t look after you
      It’s not your business how it’s done
      You’re lucky to get through

      You’re a good upstanding man
      A credit to the flock
      But if you don’t face straight ahead
      You could not stand the shock

      Blew the city off the map
      Left nothing there but fire
      The wife of Lot got turned to salt
      because she looked behind her

      Because she looked behind
      Because she looked behind

      Reply
  118. US Fund to Fight Global Climate Change Is Less Than Annual Payout to a Single For-Profit College

    Last week, at a critical point in the Paris negotiations on global climate change, Secretary of State John Kerry announced that the United States would commit $800 million annually to help developing nations adapt to a warming climate and move to cleaner energy. $800 million doubled the prior US pledge, and the announcement may have helped seal the deal.

    $800 million is a great deal of money. But it is actually less than US taxpayers provided in the past year to each of five major for-profit college companies — all of which have been under investigation in recent years by federal and state law enforcement agencies for deceiving their students, lying to government regulators, and other abuses.

    According to data from the US Department of Education, the following companies received these amounts in federal student grants and loans in the 2014-15 year:

    Apollo / University of Phoenix: $1.99 billion
    Education Management Corp.: $1.47 billion
    DeVry: $1.47 billion
    Kaplan: $877 million
    Career Education Corp.: $803 million
    http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/34068-us-fund-to-fight-global-climate-change-is-less-than-annual-payout-to-a-single-for-profit-college

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  December 20, 2015

      It’s so upsetting to see how many tax-dollars are just pissed away and given to corporations and the military industrial complex. Trillions. It’s a free for all for those with the right connections.

      Reply
  119. Ryan in New England

     /  December 20, 2015

    It’s not just here in America where the weather has been unusual, and unusually warm.

    http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/dec/20/global-warming-weather-environment-el-nino

    Reply
  120. For the first time in the roughly forty years that I’ve grown them, my Christmas roses, Helleborus niger, are blooming at Christmas. That’s four months early for my growing zone.

    Low temps have been running 20ºF above average here in central NY and I keep hearing people how lucky we are not to have snow.

    I’m just grateful to have found Robert’s site and the community for whom he has provided a forum. My wishes for a peaceful and reaffirming Winter Solstice to everyone.

    Reply
    • wili

       /  December 20, 2015

      Strange days, marcy. Strange days.

      Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  December 20, 2015

      Same to you, marcyincy. Here in Ct it’s been outrageously warm. Christmas Eve is expected to be 65 degrees! Right now our December average is way above our previous warmest December.

      Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  December 20, 2015

      marcyincny

      One thing I value is on the ground reports from all over the world. I expect my flowering quince to pop soon. When was I young it came in early March. There’s a good change it will bud before Christmas. And I am at Lubbock, Texas.

      The bugs, the plants, the animals are all in a state of overdrive.

      Sadly one half of America believes this is a plot to rob them from greed, and waste. because somewhere in the founding documents is a right to be greedy and wasteful.

      Reply
  121. – And the earth moved… (shuddered).

    A massive landslide landed on the toe of Tyndall Glacier and into Taan Fiord on Oct. 17 in Icy Bay, Alaska. It was detected by seismologists on the other side of the country. Courtesy NSF Polar Geospatial Center

    October landslide in Southeast was among world’s biggest in recent years
    Yereth RosenAlaska Dispatch News
    December 18, 2015

    When 200 million metric tons of rock tumbled down a remote Southeast Alaska mountain in October, nobody was around to see it. But thanks to a beefed-up seismic network and a new system that can distinguish landslides from earthquakes, scientists knew it had happened.

    The slide happened near Icy Bay and sent debris onto Tyndall Glacier, reported scientists from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. Some of the debris was dumped into Taan Fiord, setting off a tsunami that was big enough to be measured at the nearest tidal gauge nearly 100 miles away.

    It was one of the world’s biggest landslides in recent years and the largest in North America since the collapse of Mount St. Helens in 1980, according to the observatory.

    Reply
  122. The Oct. 17 Icy Bay slide, which was documented by satellites, happened over the course of a minute and caused a local tsunami that could have been extremely dangerous to people if any had been nearby, Stark said. It could have been 100 feet high; the closest tidal gauge, at Yakutat, measured a 1-foot wave, he said.

    Some colleagues have expressed concerns about a similar event happening at the massive Columbia Glacier, which has retreated dramatically and is closer to towns, Stark said.

    Reply
    • Andy in SD

       /  December 20, 2015

      We’ll see more slides further north.

      As you get the melt / freeze / melt / freeze cycle taking over from a static frozen state the cracks in cliff faces become wedges which exert force when in a freeze state.

      As water contracts as the temperature drops, but then expands from 4C to 0C it acts as a wedge when it fills a crevice, then freezes.

      We saw a lot of this in BC over the winters. Those northern areas that used to be static frozen and are now in the freeze / melt cycle are getting this treatment. It just takes time, and the release is always sudden.

      Reply
      • Ryan in New England

         /  December 21, 2015

        I expect this will occur in fjords all over the world that were once filed with glaciers but are now just open valleys. The ice most likely exerted a great deal of force on the valley walls, buttressing them and holding them in place.

        Reply
  123. Andy in SD

     /  December 20, 2015

    December temperatures in London have been warmer than July’s. Scotland is balmier than Barcelona. Artificial snow covers European ski slopes. Africa faces its worst food crisis in a generation as floods and droughts strike vulnerable countries.

    Roger Brugge, a senior scientist at Reading University’s atmospheric laboratory, said: “The first 17 days of December have been the mildest on record by a remarkable 1.1C. The average temperature during this period, of 10.6C, is similar to what can be expected around the beginning of May.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/dec/20/global-warming-weather-environment-el-nino

    Reply
    • Looks like Australia and South America get some large new inland seas, as North America gets California’s central valley filled with ocean, and the Mediterranean and the Black Sea merge.

      Reply
  124. Andy in SD

     /  December 20, 2015

    A massive new study by 16 authors has calculated just how much ice the Greenland ice sheet has lost since the year 1900. And the number, says the paper just out in the journal Nature, is astounding: 9,103 gigatons (a gigaton is a billion metric tons).

    That’s more than 9 trillion tons in total.

    https://www.adn.com/article/20151216/greenlands-ice-loss-already-massive-and-now-its-speeding

    Reply
  125. Wharf Rat

     /  December 20, 2015

    Forest fires sweep northern Spain despite winter rain

    MADRID, Dec 20 (Reuters) – Dozens of forest fires raged across northern Spain on Sunday after strong winds hindered efforts to keep them from spreading, forcing some homes to be evacuated in the worst-affected Asturias region.

    More than 100 fires were still burning on Sunday morning in Asturias alone despite rain overnight in some areas, emergency services said.

    Spain is prone to wildfires in summer, especially in the more arid southern regions and along its Mediterranean coastline. But such incidents are unusual in winter, especially in rainier northern regions including Asturias.

    http://www.trust.org/item/20151220145243-d5ffr/

    Reply
  126. Caroline

     /  December 20, 2015

    Ok . . . things are beyond freaky if not downright tragic/heartbreaking on the land where I live and all over the world (solastalgia pretty much a constant emotional state for me). Wish I could rationalize and say to myself “it will be be back to normal post El Nino” but I and others here know that is not going to be the case.

    What may happen post El Nino?
    Here is some exploration of that (would love to get Robert’s take on this!):

    “When you really have a monster El Niño, it could be enough to flip the PDO into a new phase for a decade or so,” said William Patzert, a climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California. “Keep your eyeballs peeled because maybe we’re in for a decadal shift.”

    “If [PDO] transitions back into positive, we’d see a resumption in these more rapid rates of global warming,” said Gerald Meehl, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. “Having that shift in the background base state means that the peaks of the El Niño are going to be higher.”

    http://www.climatecentral.org/news/el-nino-could-usher-in-stronger-events-19824

    Reply
  127. Jeremy

     /  December 20, 2015

    From the – You Just Can’t Make This Shit Up Dept.

    “While world leaders signed the ‘historic’ agreement signed in Paris to fix the world’s “greatest threat,” a natural gas storage site in southern California is belching 145,000 pounds per hour of Methane – a greenhouse gas 70 times more potent than carbon dioxide. What is worse, while official proclaim this a “top priority” a fix won’t arrive until spring as emergency crews recognize “the leak was far from routine, and the problem was deeper underground.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-20/californias-worst-gas-leak-40-years-and-crews-cant-stop-it

    Reply
  128. Jeremy

     /  December 20, 2015

    As Wired reports, in just the first month, that’s added up to 80,000 tons, or about a quarter of the state’s ordinary methane emissions over the same period !!!

    Reply
  129. NWS OPC ‏@NWSOPC 2m2 minutes ago

    Low pres northeast of #Newfoundland has strengthened to #hurricane force as of 18Z per the OPC surface analysis.

    Reply
  130. Colorado Bob

     /  December 21, 2015

    Dear Robert –
    You have the most powerful climate site on the web. You’ll want to get back to using it. Or tell us why you are a failed jackass like me.

    Reply
    • Anna

       /  December 21, 2015

      Robert can do as his pleases. He has a life away from this blog, plus, it’s the holidays. Please be respectful, CB.

      Reply
    • Jeremy

       /  December 21, 2015

      CB – Take your meds.

      Reply
      • Be nice to Bob. He’s one of the most honest souls out there. If he’s giving me flak, I probably deserve it. Am doing my best, but I tend to hyperfocus on each thing I’m doing at a given time. This makes it tough to pull myself away and spend just a few minutes to throw just anything up. It goes against the grain for me.

        Reply
    • Bob — you’re the best, my friend. Always there to stick a boot up my butt and get me going. Truth be told, though, I’ve always been a little uneven in my productivity. Two steps forward, one back. Probably due to the creative and open ended way in which I approach most subjects. But there’s an advantage in working the way I do in that I tend to find that some of my best revelations occur post hiatus.

      The tool is there. It will be used to full effect. But choices and timing are important too. In any case, with large thanks to you and everyone here, we have quite a lot of ammo currently built up😉.

      Best to you. I can think of far worse things than being a Jackass like you🙂

      Reply
  131. Apneaman

     /  December 21, 2015

    Reply
  132. Andy in SD

     /  December 21, 2015

    Gas Leak Fuels Frustration
    Southern California residents go to hotels and students relocate in ninth week of ordeal

    “It’s like we’ve been hit by a Mack truck,” said Paula Cracium, president of the Porter Ranch Neighborhood Council. “Most people didn’t even realize the gas storage field was up there.” The nearest houses are more than a mile from the underground gas-storage field and at approximately 1,200 feet lower elevation.

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/gas-leak-fuels-frustration-1450653059

    Reply
  133. redskylite

     /  December 21, 2015

    A clear short video (2mins 53 secs) from Vox, very inspiring . . .

    Reply
    • Very well said! It’s not about saving the Earth. It’s about preventing the extraordinarily dangerous transition to another hothouse mass extinction and the untold human suffering the would result.

      Reply
  134. Andy in SD

     /  December 21, 2015

    Current Hurricane estimate for 2016. Still very early and speculative.

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  December 21, 2015

      It will be interesting to watch Andy. I have seen some discussion around ENSO models showing a transition to neutral or La Nina conditions by mid-summer, coupled with a rapid warming of the tropical Atlantic. While those two ingredients are not solely responsible for hurricanes, it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

      Reply
      • I don’t know. We have one long range ensemble that shows El Nino lasting all the way through to next August or September. A couple of models are now even showing El Nino bottoming at around 0.5 to 1 C late next summer and then strengthening again in the Fall.

        So, yeah it looks like the consensus still points toward neutral at that time. But we have some possibility for this thing lasting for quite a while.

        In addition, there’s this mid ocean WWB that appears to be setting up for the 5-7 day timeframe even as NINO 3.4 is in the 2.9 C range this week. Looks like a second by end December.

        Reply
    • Those are some rough projected storm tracks. Storm frequency is projected to be rather high too. Not so sure about a complete El Niño fade at this time, though. This thing might tend to stick around for a bit longer than expected.

      Reply
      • Andy in SD

         /  December 22, 2015

        We’re looking at delayed El Nino rain here in So Cal. Nothing yet, and we should have seen something this month. It may well hang around overall.

        Reply
  135. Ryan in New England

     /  December 21, 2015

    Robert, was just wondering…would you be open to putting up a blank post to allow a fresh start on comments during times when you are busy outside of your blog? You do an incredible job, and I could never ask for more material since you are a one-man climate site and already provide us with so much. But a fresh comment section every couple days or so would certainly help to keep the dialogue open among our tight knit community here. Thanks!

    Reply
    • Working on changing my schedule up a bit. Hopefully, it will help some. Last week was crazy busy and this week is a travel week for me. So, nuts. But will do my best for you guys.

      Reply
  136. Wharf Rat

     /  December 21, 2015

    Holiday Heat is On in Europe, Australia, Eastern U.S.

    Looks like Rat, the light blue in western Cal/Ore, is bringing down the average.
    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/holiday-heat-is-on-in-europe-australia-eastern-us

    Happy Solstice.

    Reply
  137. Andy in SD

     /  December 22, 2015

    Methane emissions in Arctic cold season higher than expected.

    http://phys.org/news/2015-12-methane-emissions-arctic-cold-season.html

    Reply
  1. Freak Wildfire Outbreak Strikes Northern Spain During Winter | robertscribbler

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