Leave a comment

274 Comments

  1. Robert – seems silly but I am sooooo appreciative of this simple sentence: ” at +1.13 C above NASA’s 20th Century base-line and about +1.38 C above 1880s averages (just 0.12 C shy of the dangerous 1.5 C mark). But what we observed in the global distribution of those record hot temperatures was both odd and disturbing.” A Washington climate reporter AND atmospheric scientist wrote an article yesterday about the January warmth and cited the 1.13 C as approaching the 1.5C mark. I wrote her, pointing out that, actually, the 1.5C is based upon the 1880-ish baseline NOT the 1951-1980 baseline and that the “approach” is much closer than she indicated. She thanked me. Geeze….should be pretty basic stuff.

    Reply
    • The goal posts need to stay at 1880. People unconsciously try to move them. It’s human nature to react in that way. But we need to keep a clear picture of what’s going on. My view is that we should all use 1880 as the base line. The global monitors should do the same. It would be easier for me that way. I wouldn’t have to math😉

      Reply
      • It was slightly irksome when NSIDC moved their baseline forwards a decade, made everything look a bit better than I think it really is.

        Reply
      • I totally agree one the 1880 mark. Having studied marketing other basis of comparison looks more like a publicity stunt to pink up that sour pill.
        I have been out of the loop for about 4 months for personal reasons of course.
        I plan to translate this article of yours for my French blog as I previously did for some of your excellent work.
        Take care and keep fighting:-)
        Jack

        Reply
      • Hello Robert
        Article translated/adapted to French (with some add-ons because I had been away for so long) and posted here http://leclimatoblogue.blogspot.ca/2016/02/pas-dhiver-en-arctique-pour-2016-et.html
        Thank you very much

        Jack

        Reply
      • Hello Robert
        I just noticed this… I’m a bit late.
        Could you please double check the temperature of January 2016.
        Yours is cooler than December 2015 (at 1,4°C) but January 2016 should be warmer…
        Thank you very much
        Take care

        Jack

        Reply
  2. climatehawk1

     /  February 18, 2016

    Tweeted.

    Reply
  3. dnem

     /  February 18, 2016

    Glad to see you back Robert. The impact of all of the above on the current state of the ice is pretty stunning too (as you know!).

    Reply
  4. Has the pace of change reached terminal velocity yet?

    Sent from my iPad 🙏🏻

    >

    Reply
  5. Tom Bond

     /  February 18, 2016

    Great post Robert, in a 1000 words you have explained the significance of all this alarming data coming from various sources with respect to rising global temperatures and in particular the rapidly rising arctic temperatures.

    I also agree that all temperature rises should be bench marked against the 19th century average not the 20th century average, just to emphasis how close we are to +1.5C and that the time for complacency is over.

    Reply
  6. redskylite

     /  February 18, 2016

    Has a tipping point been reached, is this the new Arctic normal, only time will tell.

    A reminder from Rice University, big changes can happen quickly and dramatically and we shouldn’t get complacent for the kind, accommodating graduality of Climate Change so far. Beware Earth has an accelerator pedal and we are stepping on it big time.

    “We found that about 10,000 years ago, this thick, grounded ice sheet broke apart in dramatic fashion,” Anderson said. “The evidence shows that an armada of icebergs — each at least twice as tall as the Empire State Building — was pushed out en masse. We know this because this part of the Ross Sea is about 550 meters (1,804 feet) deep, and the icebergs were so large and so tightly packed that they gouged huge furrows into the seafloor as they moved north.”

    http://news.rice.edu/2016/02/18/colossal-antarctic-ice-shelf-collapse-followed-last-ice-age-2/

    Reply
    • Oale

       /  February 19, 2016

      Commencing a gear shift to 2nd gear, everyone ready? I guess by 2025 there’s no doubt anywhere this thing is moving way faster than linear. Some things already likely are, but the stats proof is difficult due internal variability.

      Reply
  7. Ryan in New England

     /  February 18, 2016

    Remember in December when it rained at the North Pole? I had made a comment on how this might be seen in retrospect as the beginning of the end of Winter in the Arctic. I never thought it would be two months later we would be saying there is no Winter in the Arctic! This is absolute insanity. And according to the mainstream news, everything is fine and we need to go shopping more. I think it’s safe to say we are going to blow through the 2C benchmark faster than the 1C threshold. If we stopped emissions tomorrow we would easily break 1.5C, yet we are nowhere near stopping even a percentage of our emissions. We are on the doorstep of 1.5C and nobody (other than us and those few others like us) even cares. Forget about discussing this topic, nobody even knows about what’s happening. No matter how much I raise alarm bells with everyone I know, people care more about consuming than having a future for their kids that’s survivable. This is the single biggest reason I haven’t, and never will, have children. It’s really hard to stay optimistic.

    On the positive side, it’s great to have you back Robert. We missed you for a few days:) Fantastic post, by the way!

    Reply
  8. NevenA

     /  February 19, 2016

    I’ve added a link to this piece at the end of the latest blog post on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog, describing what is currently happening to the ice pack on both sides of the Arctic: An exceptional exception

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  February 19, 2016

      Thanks Neven!

      Reply
    • Thanks for this, Neven. Fantastic, comprehensive article there. I wonder if Beaufort cracking will be seen as rejuvinative in the long term or more or less a sign of overall fragility. Perhaps the 2013 bounce was moreso due to the relatively cool Winter by comparison. In any case, the ice edge is really taking a beating this year. And I wonder about an overall lack of accumulated cold for the season. The difference between -20 and -30 is a good degree of added latent heat. That’s an additional fragility to cryosphere systems we should probably consider.

      Reply
  9. If we had an ice free Arctic this summer, or near enough to – it would vindicate Wadhams, and the PIOMAS extrapolations, one might say.

    Regardless, things are changing faster and faster and more and more. It won’t be possible for any single person to keep up with the pace of events – whether authoring articles or even just reading them… excepting at the largest levels, and unfortunately the key developments often have their roots in smaller origins.

    Reply
  10. Ryan in New England

     /  February 19, 2016

    It looks like the U.S. is single handedly responsible for up to 60% of the increase in methane emissions. The increase in emissions coincides with the boom in shale oil/fracking that started in the early 2000s.

    http://www.climatecentral.org/news/us-60-percent-of-global-methane-growth-20037

    Reply
  11. Ryan in New England

     /  February 19, 2016

    Here’s a good article by Bill McKibben/Tom Dispatch on Exxon, and damage they have caused us all with their deception, and campaign to inject doubt into the sound science of climate change.

    http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/exxons_never-ending_big_dig_20160218

    Reply
    • So for three and a half decades Exxon Mobile has basically been engaged in what amounts to information warfare aimed at locking in a severe climate catastrophe they knew would happen. One they took some token steps to prepare their own assets for while failing to understand the all-encompassing nature of the problem. Meanwhile as these paltry and inadequate preparations (even from the myopic position of only protecting company assets) took place, they actively misled and misinformed the public even as they polluted the political process to inflict wholesale inaction for years and decades.

      I do not think a more reprehensible and malicious business entity has ever existed on the face of this Earth. One that would put the lives of every living thing beneath the value of its continued corporate profit. Short sighted hubris does not even begin to describe what to me appears to be an awful and muderous engine. Mass extinction is the true end of this thing that should never be identified under such an innocuous title as enterprise. What else could you say about an entity that is actively trying to lock in geocide?

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  February 19, 2016

        They are corporate psychopaths.

        That is not an exaggeration. Google “psychopath and CEO” to find all the parallels between heads of corporations and your garden-variety homicidal maniac. They have no morality or vision beyond the bottom line and they will murder millions to achieve their goals. Btw, they also own all the news media and will buy what they don’t already own. This is what our poor old planet and all the little people on it are up against: this mighty 1%, this cabal of corporatists, who are growing richer and more powerful by the hour, and who are simply the most ruthless killing machine ever devised by humanity.

        Reply
  12. Andy in SD

     /  February 19, 2016

    If you look at the daily satellite images for the Arctic, and zoom in, one of the items you will notice is the non contiguous nature of the ice. It is a fractured mess. Northern Canada is the last bastion of multi year ice, it too is fractured. What should be contiguous, or large solid portions of sea ice are now much smaller. They will expose water to sunlight sooner as they drift apart and melt. The chunks of ice will have a more vulnerable thermal density, thus have a lower expectancy of remaining as ice at the end of summer.

    This does not portend well for resilience when the melt comes.

    Reply
    • Huge polynyas opening up in the Beaufort. It looks like 2013. However, it’s much warmer overall in the Arctic this year.

      Reply
    • Studying the Arctic sea ice extent chart blogged daily at NSIDC, it stands out that the ‘peak’ extent in 2014 happened on February, the earliest date in the dataset, and well before the ‘average’ date of March 13. This year, we have already had three timeframes with record low sea ice extent, and as of today, ice is 2% behind last year and well beyond 1% below the previous record low. And, the trend these last few days is a declining extent.

      All of this, combined with the facts/data in this Post, point to a scary possibility that we are now meeting ‘Game Over’ for polar ice.

      Reply
  13. Thanks for another great article!

    I remember back when you were talking about how the blob/RRR and related changes in the Arctic would serve to block the California drought busting capacity of El Nino. Well it took me a while to understand all that you were alluding to and now it seems to be coming to pass. Now with this article you are adding to that, if things weren’t ominous enough. All the energy that would have delivered moisture to California now seems to be sealing its doom by further heating the arctic to the point where even powerful future El Nino’s will just become drops in the bucket.

    Reply
    • Call me nuts, but I really like to put in those nuggets. Sometimes making people think is more than worthwhile. There’s a difference between telling and attempting to enlighten — even if it is in the exploration of a difficult subject. Thanks for being such an insightful reader.

      Reply
  14. Jay M

     /  February 19, 2016

    Looking at PNW storms over the last three months it is striking how all the energy seems to drive into the north, catching Alaska various places. We (Columbia R. area) have got very decent moisture, but California is so far not getting a cornucopia.

    Reply
    • The Jet plows across the Pacific, then it splits, firehose-like as it hits that hot pool of water off the West Coast. There’s too much heat, too much northward pull on the storm track. Something’s gotta give. It’s SoCal rains and Arctic heat so far.

      Reply
  15. Mark from OZ

     /  February 19, 2016

    Good grief!
    One would have thought the difficult and tragic lessons sadly learnt by our ancestors, the hominins, back in the middle Pleistocene around the danger to ‘life’ in creating big fires in enclosed spaces would have never been forgotten.

    Reply
    • Are there instances of mass hominin deaths around cave fires due to suffocation? If so, you’re right. You’d think it would be come a deeply ingrained fear.

      Reply
      • Mark from OZ

         /  February 20, 2016

        G’day RS!
        Hard to find evidence of ‘mass’ death amongst our forebears (anecdotal,likely) but ‘accidental’ CO poisoning still accounts for > 40k ER visits and ~ 5500 deaths in the USA alone.
        Deliberate CO poisoning may be 10 x the accidental! It’s also the leading cause of poisoning in the industrialized world and can increase after power outages (i.e. hurricanes) when insufficient care is applied wrt to IC engines (generators) and fuel burning devices for heating.
        My original comments were emotionally and desperately driven and were lamenting our collective ignorance and failure (still) to appreciate that building a fire ‘out in the open’ is not much different to building one in a cave as the atmosphere IS a finite volume and confined space too.

        Related link to recent ‘find’ in SA on those remarkable beings that preceded us:

        https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22730383-700-new-species-extinct-human-found-in-cave-may-rewrite-history/

        Note: No suggestion that their likely use of fire was inexpert.

        PS Great to have you back and ‘participating’ with so much gusto.-T’is no surprise that all the seats ‘up front’ in your virtual lecture hall are occupied; ‘here’ is an extraordinary place of learning!
        ATB!

        Reply
    • Well then one would have forgotten how easily humans are distracted by shiny things, beads, chrome, plasma displays…

      Reply
  16. Vic

     /  February 19, 2016

    This seems a rather important discovery, although I’m not sure whether to laugh or cry.

    “Small amounts of neutral red were injected 80 metres underground at three sites into the water-saturated coal seam. A fivefold to tenfold increase in methane production was observed during a 12-month period.”

    https://www.science.unsw.edu.au/news/study-tiny-red-crystals-dramatically-increase-biogas-production-could-reduce-need-new-coal-seam

    Reply
  17. Phil

     /  February 19, 2016

    Great post Robert. Brought everything together nicely. So many things happening at once.

    Saw the JISAO January PDO value came in positive at 1.53, up from December 2015 value of 1.01. Will be interesting to see where it goes this year. Have had two solid years now of positive values.

    Would be interesting to know if/how this also contributes to potential teleporting of heat from equatorial pacific to the Arctic, even if only by making El Nino’s either more common or more powerful.

    Reply
    • The hot blob seems a persistent and reinforcing feature of the current positive PDO. It’s also aiding the Arctic-Tropic teleconnection over NE PAC and Western North America. North of Europe, we have a similar feature in the form of an abnormally warm Barents. These two regions appear to be the primary launching pads for these anomalous warm air invasions now building up over the Arctic.

      Reply
  18. Thanks for the great article, Robert. Good to have you back.:)

    It would be nice if Arctic warming slows down as El Nino fades, and we get a couple of cooler years. It would be nice if the glacial melt outflow from Greenland slows down Arctic warming. Many things would be nice, but conditions have changed so much it is hard to know what to expect, other than chaos.

    Some of the most rapid warming is in Siberia, and over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) and Siberia is a long way away from Greenland. I guess there are some mountain glaciers on Siberian islands, but those look relatively small in this video showing ice mass loss derived from GRACE gravimetric satellite data:

    http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/video/details.php?id=1062

    Hansen once said that before we could have low level runaway global warming, the ice caps would have to melt. Looking at the graphic of Arctic temperatures you show, it seems possible to have a full blown methane catastrophe in the Arctic especially around the ESAS while Antarctica remains relatively intact. It also seems possible that CO2 and methane emissions from melting and rotting permafrost could act as a bridge between fossil fuel forcing and a full blown methane catastrophe including methane hydrate dissociation..

    Even in a CO2 dominated atmospheric warming scenario there is very likely to be greatly increased methane emissions from the hydrates into the oceans. So a CO2 dominated atmospheric warming scenario could still have hypoxic and badly acidified oceans, I think.

    Reply
    • OK. So this is rather speculative. But it seems we have about enough carbon in the Permafrost to bump CO2 up by around 100 ppm atmospheric. The question is rate of release. Current science is more on the moderate side.

      The scientific discussion on clathrate release has basically gone dark. We have established scientists taking a very conservative tack on rate of release and impact to oceans and we have some others who are at a pretty extreme opposite end of the argument. Some of those on the methane emergency end are calling for geo-engineering while attacking climate policy which makes me wonder a bit RE motivations.

      For my part, I’m going to do my best to get the highest possible quality information to you guys. I think though that it’s pretty clear that we can’t ID a strong methane release signal for the Arctic at this time and that is some cause for consolation in all the rest of the tough news.

      But we are pushing the Arctic pretty hard right now.

      Reply
      • The forum you provide is very much appreciated, Robert.

        I’m personally not in favor of geoengineering unless it’s part of a unified and potentially effective plan to draw down CO2. I’m in favor of emergency deployment of alternative energy technologies, an end to all fossil fuel subsidies, legal action to charge the fossil fuel corporations climate damages, and Bio-energy with Carbon Capture and Storage, especially if the storage is in situ mineral carbonation.

        I’m not a climate scientist, so I feel uncomfortable disagreeing with the established climate scientists. But I have 30 years of experience in analytical chemistry laboratories doing analytical chemistry method development – a process of scientific investigation that demands forming, testing, and discarding hypotheses on very short time scales and finding out immediately whether I was right or not.

        The methane hydrate dissociation scenario as outlined by Dickens seems to me to be the best general hypothesis to explain a series of mass extinction events. It appears to provide good predictions, and it also seems to provide quantitative predictions that actually check out. The increased explanatory power, predictive ability, and unifying ability of the methane hydrate dissociation general theory of mass extinctions makes it the best hypothesis, I think. It’s a shame that the best general theory of mass extinctions predicts disaster for humanity, absent massive and effective emergency action.

        I think the fossil fuel corporations did not like the climate science they were seeing a decade or two ago, so they went out and bought some climate science they liked better.

        But, no, Dickens was right, I think.

        Down the Rabbit Hole: toward appropriate discussion of methane
        release from gas hydrate systems during the Paleocene-Eocene
        thermal maximum and other past hyperthermal events

        http://www.clim-past.net/7/831/2011/cp-7-831-2011.pdf

        “The total mass of carbon stored as CH4 in present-day marine
        gas hydrates has been estimated numerous times using
        different approaches as reviewed in several papers (Dickens,
        2001b; Milkov, 2004; Archer, 2007). Prior to 2001, several
        estimates converged on 10 000 Gt, and this “consensus mass”
        (Kvenvolden, 1993) was often cited in the literature. However,
        the convergence of estimates was fortuitous because
        different authors arrived at nearly the same mass but with
        widely varying assumptions; an appropriate range across the
        studies was 5000–20 000 Gt (Dickens, 2001b). In the last
        ten years, estimates have ranged from 500-2500 Gt (Milkov,
        2004), ∼700–1200 Gt (Archer et al., 2009), and 4–995 Gt
        (Burwicz et al., 2011) to 74 400 Gt (Klauda and Sandler,
        2005). The latter is almost assuredly too high (Archer, 2007).
        The others are probably too low”

        The total mass of carbon stored as methane in present-day marine gas hydrates is the most important number to humanity of all time, I think. Unfortunately, that number is known best to the oil corporations that have done the exploration work, and they have multiple motives to spin it as a low number.

        Of the low estimates listed by Dickens, Archer co-authors scientific papers with ExxonMobil chief scientist Haroon Kheshgi and Milkov worked for British Petroleum at the time he made his estimates of total hydrate mass. Burwicz claims to be a global warming alarmist, but makes very confusing statements about global warming widely quoted on Fox News.

        We really need to know whether we have 0.004 trillion tons of carbon as methane in the hydrates or 74.4 trillion tons, and allowing that information to be best known by the oil corporations is very, very foolish. At the low end of the range, CO2 only warming scenarios are appropriate and we will be fine. At the high end of the range, we could be looking at the mother of all mass extinctions, even if dissociation rates are very low. Likely, we have about 10 trillion tons of carbon in the marine gas hydrates, like Dickens said. But we are coming out of a series of ice ages with cold ocean temperatures favoring hydrate stabiity, so it could be more.

        Reply
      • May I suggest this link to you
        http://arctic-news.blogspot.ca/
        The information there is not published in scientific papers, but the information seems highly correct in many respects
        Then the is http://paulbeckwith.net/
        He’s a paleo-climatologist at the University of Ottawa and is often interviewed at
        http://www.ecoshock.info/ a very good radio show on climate and the environment I listen to every week:-)

        Hope you enjoy
        Jack

        Reply
        • So there are a number of nuances here that we need to be aware of. The first is that powerful methane feedbacks do not have a clear signal yet in the global monitors. In addition, though feedbacks and responses to the human forcing do and probably will ramp up, they are unlikely to hit a pure exponential curve. Nature tends to swing wildly, especially as systems become destabilized. But, also, there are boundaries beyond tipping points that establish new equilibriums. This is not to say that what we are doing isn’t extraordinarily dangerous. That we won’t hit accelerating rates of change in a number of systems. It’s just to say that following the top trend curve often isn’t accurate or realistic. For example, if we had just followed the curve on Arctic sea ice melt from 2007, we would have gotten to a blue ocean event in 2012. There was some speculation that this might have been possible. But it didn’t happen. We had a bit of a bounce back in the overall melt trend and a pull back toward a more linear, albeit far steeper than what IPCC predicted during the mid 2000s, trend line during 2013 and 2014.

          The takeaway here is that we can tend to exaggerate both a conservative approach to climate impacts and an extreme one. We have to be very careful not to double count the amplifiers nor to lean too far toward faith in systems inertia.

          The situation is probably, therefore, somewhat worse than conservative mainstream science suggests. However, I think it’s fair to say that it’s better than a pure exponential warming scenario. We need to be aware of these outside risks. But let’s be clear and not be hypnotized by them. It’s also worth noting that some among this community pointing out the very worst case are also pushing for solar radiation management. And that is a very dangerous and unlikely to succeed response to human forced climate change. I’d also warn that the geo-engineering approach will probably be the final, dangerous fall-back of a fossil fuel industry trying to find a rationale for its continued existence against the growing concerns of a justifiably outraged public.

      • Hi Robert-

        I agree with most of that, and appreciate the great information available here. Certainly, fossil fuels just have to go, and trying to fix the atmosphere through geoengineering sounds a lot like trying to tune up an automobile engine by throwing wrenches at it. What we want is to return to the atmosphere (and the oceans) of a century or two ago, not try to create a new atmosphere that compensates for fossil fuel burning by artificially induced global dimming, and allow the oceans to morph into hydrogen sulfide producing purple bacteria covered oceans.

        I have to admit a certain amount of dismay at some of the stuff from Sam Carana and arctic.blogspot. It seems somewhat exaggerated to me, too, and the time scale is accelerated beyond what I would expect.

        I’m not sure we can take much comfort in the fact that present day methane emissions from the hydrates appear to be low, though. Due to anerobic and aerobic oxidation of methane being such an efficient process, any methane emitted now would show up mainly as CO2, and we are seeing anomalous ocean acidification of deep water due to CO2, off the coast of Washington and Oregon. We are seeing anomalous algae blooms in the Arctic and off the Pacific Northwest, possibly tied to increased methane production from the hydrates and acidification.

        Modeling by the now defunct IMPACTS (of abrupt climate change) group of universities and national labs (apparently quietly defunded by the DOE around 2013) shows that it takes 30 or more years for the pulse of heat from a sudden change in ocean temperatures to work its way down into the hydrates and produce peak methane emissions.

        Even if methane emissions are moderate at first we may not be prepared for the huge impacts of methane emissions from the hydrates on the oceans. This modeling by the IMPACTS group shows a plume of anoxic and acidic water at year 40 of their modeling stretching from the Siberian Sea of Okhotsk, across the Bering Straight, flowing down the coast of North America all the way to Baja California, then wandering out into the Pacific, returning to the coast of South America, and wandering down the coast of South America. And that is from a hydrate emissions scenario that shows only low emissions from the hydrates.

        http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010JG001300/pdf

        Marine methane cycle simulations for the period of early global warming.

        Check out figure 2 to see the map of the methane saturated water plume referred to above.

        Only after the hydrates have been emitting for decades, and entire ocean basins become anoxic, might we see large emissions from the hydrates into the atmosphere, according to the IMPACTS group modeling.

        And at that point it might really be too late to do anything about it.

        RS Comment:

        Leland — This comment is deeply buried in the forum notes now so I’m just going to reply here if that’s OK.

        I’ve got to say that I wholeheartedly agree with much of what you say here. Not that I think that hydrate release is inevitable. But that I do see it as a risk. I’m somewhat concerned by discrepancies in the global monitors (Copernicus vs Metop) that I’ve recently become aware of, though, coupled with the general knowledge that most of the methane emissions in Copernicus coincide with wildfires and human sources (which is pretty consistent with the IPCC findings).

        I like Sam. And I think he does some good observational work. However, in light of more recent science, we should probably take a broader look at the methane issue for now. And I don’t think we are on some inevitable ramp of unchecked feedbacks that is pretty far outside both model and paleoclimate understandings. Given current forcings, I think we’ve locked in a range of 2 C warming for this Century and 4 C warming long term if GHG levels were to stabilize (that includes earth system feedbacks and may include a moderate permafrost and hydrate response).

        I think that if we were to stop human ghg emissions now the net effect of feedback + drawdown of human gasses (loss of methane due to interaction with hydroxyl and some drawdown of CO2 into oceans) would about be matched by the scale of feedbacks we’ve already locked in. We could possibly bend the curve down by changes in land use and BCCS or other practices.

        But I do think the risks for stronger feedbacks increase as the human forcing increases. Hitting 550 ppm CO2e net forcing would result in very bad outcomes in my view — resulting in a moderate risk of a longer term runaway to a PETM/Permian type warming. The reason is that this level is enough to melt pretty much all of the land ice and to unlock the carbon stores that have been sequestered in frozen land and hydrate over the past 60 million years.

        Reply
      • Oh, corrections to the above post:

        The figure I was thinking of in Elliot et al. 2011 is actually figure 4, not figure 2. It is a polar projection, and is a little hard to read, but it does show that the poorly ventilated North Pacific around the Sea of Okhotsk and stretching across to the western coast of North America is a region of very low oxygen concentration after 30 years of methane release. Oxygen concentration actually goes down to zero in the Sea of Okhotsk, and is near zero for hundreds or thousands of miles in this plume.

        The authors also published a correction to figure 7 in that paper:

        http://api.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/asset/v1/doi/10.1029%2F2011JG001725/asset/image_n%2Fjgrg849-fig-0001.png?l=Cgg2pVVsCMxYtYfYYCugyGOdPwlc6N%2B%2F6DOeIuS6chbhyaJfLxaj7XBNbT%2FOFxdgKshQn6QcysE%3D&s=%22b3ca27395bb74027a5445913995b3db2%22&a=wol

        The correction shows that direct methane transfer from the oceans into the atmosphere increases as the simulation goes on, reaching an average value of about 60 percent after 30 years. After 30 years of methane hydrate dissociation by their modeling, the oxidation capability of whole ocean basins has been exhausted, leading to direct transfer of an average of close to 60 percent of the methane released by the hydrates into the atmosphere.

        Reply
      • Let’s see if we can get those scary graphs to show up. One picture is worth 1000 words:

        If this works it will show the % methane making it through the barrier of the oceans into the atmosphere as ocean basins have their oxidation capacity overwhelmed by hydrate dissociation, according to the IMPACTS group modeling

        Testing, testing…

        Reply
      • Oh, poopy.😦 Foiled again:)

        Reply
      • Hi Robert-

        Thanks a lot. The corrected figure 7 from Elliott et al. was the one I wanted to post. The huge seasonal swings and the increasingly large fraction of methane making it through the barrier of the oceans as individual ocean basins become hypoxic is the scary part, I think.

        http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JG001725/full

        Here’s what they say about this corrected figure 7:

        “In the paper “Marine methane cycle simulations for the period of early global warming” by S. Elliott et al. (Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, G01010, doi:10.1029/2010JG001300, 2011), a mistake was made in the creation of Figure 7, which erroneously showed that only a small fraction (about 1%) of the inert methane tracer released from the ocean sediments into our model escaped to the atmosphere. The correct Figure 7 and its caption appear here. As can be seen in the corrected Figure 7, a much larger fraction is actually released to the atmosphere in this simulation (about 60%).”

        They make this point about basin scale exhaustion of oceanic capacity to oxidize methane in some of their other papers like “Basin-Scale Assessment of Gas Hydrate Dissociation in Response to Climate Change”.

        Thanks for all you do, Robert.

        Reply
        • Percent of Hydrate Carbon Transition to Atmosphere

          The paper finds that up to 60 percent of hydrate release transferring across the ocean surface boundary after oxidation saturation scenario is reached during an early warming is a pretty big deal. Worth noting that the more anoxic the ocean becomes, the more gas from hydrate destabilization makes its way to the surface. Also worth noting that the uncorrected version was more frequently cited.

          For future reference the code is *open bracket* img src= insert image url here *slash closed bracket*

  19. – Our ‘blue’ planet seems to be getting a bit bluer.
    – Definitely less white at the top.

    – And, as K, Vonnegut put it: “So it goes…”

    Reply
    • – 15 Things Kurt Vonnegut Said Better Than Anyone Else Ever Has Or Will

      13. “So it goes.”

      Unlike many of these quotes, the repeated refrain from Vonnegut’s classic Slaughterhouse-Five isn’t notable for its unique wording so much as for how much emotion—and dismissal of emotion—it packs into three simple, world-weary words that simultaneously accept and dismiss everything. There’s a reason this quote graced practically every elegy written for Vonnegut over the past two weeks (yes, including ours): It neatly encompasses a whole way of life. More crudely put: “Shit happens, and it’s awful, but it’s also okay. We deal with it because we have to.”:)
      http://www.avclub.com/article/15-things-kurt-vonnegut-said-better-than-anyone-el-1858

      Reply
      • dnem

         /  February 19, 2016

        Love this, DT. And love KV. My wife’s signature on emails, etc. is David Byrne’s take on same. “Same as it ever was.”

        Reply
      • Mblanc

         /  February 20, 2016

        I like SNAFU, which is kind of similar.

        Reply
  20. – Dateline Fiji:

    Anthony Sagliani ‏@anthonywx 3h3 hours ago

    Those on main Fiji islands should be preparing for worst possible outcome.

    Reply
  21. — Surprise (To me.) ‘Info Resource’ found while researching Fiji (Oceania).

    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/fj.html

    Reply
  22. Jeremy

     /  February 19, 2016

    Watch Doublespeak.

    “Doublespeak highlights the contradictory actions of President Obama and the British Prime Minister, David Cameron when it comes to addressing the urgent threat of climate change.
    The film uses archive footage from speeches and news reports to paint a picture of how politicians continue to ignore the science on climate change in order to appease their friends in the fossil fuel industry”

    http://www.filmsforaction.org/watch/doublespeak-a-film-about-climate-change/

    Damn politicos – screw ’em all,

    Reply
  23. Jeremy

     /  February 19, 2016

    Listen to this week’s Radio Ecoshock – and say good bye to the Great Barrier Reef.
    Indian Coal consumption going through the roohf.

    “Australia fires climate scientists while expanding coal. Ellen Roberts of GetUp! reports. From Netherlands, scientist Arjen Hoekstra finds 4 billion people in water scarcity. From Hong Kong, Stuart Heaver on nuclear fear next door”

    http://www.ecoshock.info/2016/02/hard-news-troubled-planet.html

    Reply
  24. – I’ve been enjoying listening to this 1953 lecture by J. Robert Oppenheimer via BBC titled The Sciences and Man’s Community via BBC
    The Reith Lectures, Robert Oppenheimer: Science and the Common Understanding: 1953

    – I love the depth and width of his compassionate intellect and his speaking.
    – The only way to listen is to download mp3 file for later listening. I often download lectures and then listen on headphones as I lay in bed at night.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00hg2d6

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  February 21, 2016

      That’s a great link. Thanks dt:) Back in the 1950s this country was so much more supportive of science. We respected and appreciated the intellectuals and scientists, and strove to lead the world in science and education. Kids dreamed of being astronauts and engineers and chemists and physicists. The adult populace acted like adults and would never support a candidate like Trump or Palin, who embrace ignorance and proudly dismiss any facts that contradict their evidence-free view of the world.

      Reply
  25. Hilary

     /  February 19, 2016

    Tropical Cyclone Winston has now been upgraded to category 5 & its track predicted to be more due west, straight over Fiji’s main Island:
    http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65648.html

    -sorry cant manage to insert image showing this. :-((

    Poor Fiji & the Fijians just don’t need this sort of battering!

    Reply
  26. – Meanwhile in N. Atlantic. Lots of weather action.
    NWS OPC ‏@NWSOPC 23s24 seconds ago

    Numerous areas of at least gale force in the N Atlantic including a developing hurricane force system later today…

    Reply
  27. dnem

     /  February 19, 2016

    Same as it ever was. And so it goes…

    Reply
  28. Kevin Jones

     /  February 19, 2016

    Overheat the Arctic surface= overcool the Arctic stratosphere. Presto:
    http://www.phys.org/news/2016-0s-strong-ozone-depletion-arctic.html

    Reply
  29. Kevin Jones

     /  February 19, 2016

    24 years ago. Enough to make me feel as old as Colorado Bob!

    Reply
  30. Cate

     /  February 19, 2016

    I follow the Greenland threads over at Arctic Sea Ice Forum (even though much of the techtalk escapes me—still, you can pick up the gist). There are animations and discussion here of the most recent changes in the Jakobshavn Isbrae, which is the main source of icebergs in my corner of the NW Atlantic.

    http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,154.1250.html

    Reply
  31. JPL

     /  February 19, 2016

    This is an hour long talk plus Q&A by Kevin Anderson a few weeks ago from the London School of Economics. Very sobering conversation about what it will really take to meet the 2 C. target.

    Sorry if this is a re-post but didn’t recall seeing it here.

    John

    Reply
      • JPL

         /  February 19, 2016

        One of his comments that really stuck with me is his assertion that 2 C global average temp increase means 6 C increase at the poles. Ouch.

        Reply
    • – That’s pretty recent at Feb 9, 2016. KA tells it like it is.

      Reply
      • Mblanc

         /  February 20, 2016

        To my mind, KA is one of those scientists of whom we can justifiably be proud.

        Reply
      • Mblanc

         /  February 21, 2016

        I have seen this most excellent lecture before, although he has updated bits and pieces.

        The first thing that strikes me is that the LSE probably counts as a ‘tough room’ for KA (note how he clocks the head shaking skeptics fairly early on), as far as UK academic institutions are concerned. It’s funny how they filmed this without showing his Powerpoint stuff, which renders it almost useless to the uninformed viewer. It makes me wonder why it is like that, then I remember this is the LSE! Other versions of this lecture are available, and have been posted here before, and I would recommend those.

        I’m now going to watch the Q+A, and I’ll comment if it is interesting.

        Reply
      • Mblanc

         /  February 21, 2016

        So the Q+A was entertaining, especially the last q, which was roughly, ‘there you are telling us we, as relatively rich folks, need to cut our emissions radically, what are you doing to cut your emissions?’

        This is the Al Gore question, and KA laughs for a moment, then smashes it out of the park!:-) I think he has been asked it before.

        So KA is a vegetarian, who has cut his (old camper van) road mileage by two thirds, and has downsized from a house to an energy efficient flat. But his killer response is that he has not flown for 11 years and, as it turns out, when he went to China, he went by train! Just to repeat that for clarity, Manchester to Shanghai by train.

        Now I checked this and it takes 2 days to get to Moscow, around 2000 miles. Then it is a matter of popping on the Trans-Siberian line for the 7 day, 5000 mile journey to Shanghai, via Bejing! Then he came back the same way…

        Having said the lecture is hamstrung by the inability to see the powerpoint elements, the Q+A, from 60 mins onwards is very interesting, and I must just mention the question querying the lack of outrage from the scientific community.

        Well, you can see the outrage in KA, and no mistake.

        Reply
      • wili

         /  February 21, 2016

        I agree that Kevin Anderson is perhaps the most straightforward communicator among major climate scientists of where we actually stand. I try to remind myself, though, that in spite of the lure of essentially endless quantities of fossil fuel money on the one hand, and the threat of endlessly cruel threats on job, family and life and limb on the other, nearly all climate scientists have at least stuck to their science. If you step back a bit, that is an amazing human achievement in and of itself!

        But yes, we still desperately need lots more scientists to stand up and tell us where we really are in the clear terms that KA does here and elsewhere. But really, that burden is also on each of us who has come to understand the gravity of the situation at whatever level–we need to me megaphones/magnifiers of the clearest voices in the scientific community; they shouldn’t have to do all the heavy lifting by themselves.

        Much as I treasure rs’s blog (and I do treasure it dearly), I am quite amazed and distressed that there aren’t really hundreds to thousands of blogs of this caliber and clarity on these ultimate issues of our time with million, no billions of people following and posting on them.

        This and neven’s site seem to me to be the best. Skeptical Science and RealClimate have their strengths and faults, but mostly put out good info. But then there seem to just be a smattering of others, most of which either don’t really have climate as a main focus (POForums environmental thread, for example, which also suffers troll swarms) or which are not very active either in main posts or responses to them (for example the wonderful but underused ClimateState linked on the right hand column).

        Are there lots of other good ones out there that I just don’t know about?

        Reply
      • Wili you ask ‘Are there lots of other good ones out there that I just don’t know about?’

        I recommend: https://tamino.wordpress.com/

        Reply
      • Mblanc

         /  February 21, 2016

        Tamino is a good shout, another strong voice, but Wili is right there should many more robust voices.

        I guess that humanity will look back and see that the ‘Climate Wars’ contain some the worst houndings, that mainstream science has witnessed. The UEA guy at the centre of the climategate emails witch hunt was, as I understand it, a broken man long before he was exonerated.

        When KA says that if you talk to climate scientists in a relaxed, informal environment, they will tell you a somewhat different story to that which they will tell in a lecture theatre, one can attack the individual scientists. But I think it is more balanced view is that it is to see it as an indication of just how powerful corporate interests are, in the here and now.

        I think that KA was right when he said (in response to a question) that we can all be leaders in our own smaller worlds of friends, families etc.

        My close friends have just bought a BMW i3, so I went and had a look at this impressive piece of engineering today. The vehicle is not a perfect solution, and is only a small part of the massive job we have to do, but individual folks can lead by example, and we should endeavour to support/emulate them.

        Reply
  32. (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/2/26/1189952/-Global-warming-awareness-at-the-Birkebeiner-ski-race)

    I am in NW Wisconsin where this event is to take place tomorrow. The weather here is very, very grim. Winter in a death spiral —– sheets of rain pouring out of the sky combined with strong warm winds. The forests look terribly ill. The ecosystems here are diminished with biodiversity decreasing—it seems—by the minute.
    Is it fair to say the seasons as we knew them(those of us who have been around 30+ years or more) are gone for good?
    I will be interviewing skiers at the start line of the Birkie tomorrow via WOJB, public radio. It will be hard not to ask those interviewed their thoughts on this climate catastrophe. It feels more like a funeral than a festive “winter” event.
    Robert, I passed along this latest post to the morning host who referenced it after an interview with someone from Citizen’s Climate Lobby. We received quite a few positive responses.

    Reply
  33. Colorado Bob

     /  February 19, 2016

    From The Missoulian the best description of the Milankovitch cycles ever, with supporting findings-

    Global warming overriding historic cycles

    DON MICHELS

    http://missoulian.com/news/opinion/columnists/global-warming-overriding-historic-cycles/article_b6842b93-b040-5b88-8bd4-bc773f143b4d.html?error=Unable+to+verify+user+session

    Reply
  34. Robert,

    How do I contact you privately? I would like to discuss a project that I could use your help on. If you are interested, I will be in Silver Spring Mon/Tue of next week and we could meet to discuss. Perhaps you could block me and then I could send you my email?

    Reply
  35. Colorado Bob

     /  February 19, 2016

    The JTWC forecast :
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    200600Z — 17.0S 178.8E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    Here’s a conversion table –
    160 knots = 184.125mph
    195 knots = 224.402 mph

    Reply
  36. – Guardian

    Fast-growing tumbleweed called hairy panic blows into Australian city

    Dry grass piles up around homes in Wangaratta, north-east Victoria – at times reportedly reaching roof height

    Hairy panic – Panicum effusum – is a short-lived perennial native to inland Australia. Outbreaks of the weed take place across the country every year but Wangaratta has been hit particularly badly this year because of dry conditions.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/18/fast-growing-tumbleweed-called-hairy-panic-blows-into-australian-city?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+USA+-+Version+CB+header&utm_term=157675&subid=8553955&CMP=ema_565

    Reply
  37. Climate & Security ‏@CntrClimSec 26m26 minutes ago

    Here’s a list of some of the most frequently asked climate security questions. Add yours via submit a question page

    FAQs

    Below is a list of some of the most frequently asked “climate security” questions.

    Is climate change a security risk?
    Will climate change cause wars?
    Where is climate change the biggest threat to security?
    Why do militaries care about climate change?
    How does climate change compare to other security risks?

    http://climatesecurity101.org/faqs/

    Reply
    • Hey DT,

      Thanks for the welcome back earlier.

      I think this is a good basic list. However, it doesn’t capture the full breadth of climate risk. No mention of expanding wildfire risk, increasing disease vectors and potentially new emergent diseases, impacts to ocean health and transition to stratified or Canfield ocean states, changing ocean states introducing new toxins to the water and, eventually, the atmosphere, risk of loss of life due to extreme heatwaves (although this could come under extreme weather), impacts to the hydroxyl sink and, possibly, ozone, cascading ecological impacts including mass extinction stress growing more and more pervasive, geophysical changes due to reduced ice mass and changes in ocean mass balance, loss of human habitats and liveable climates. It’s not just sea level rise, food and water impacts, mass migration, and extreme weather.

      Also, it’s not just an existential risk to low lying island nations. At 2 C warming this Century it’s an existential or collapse risk to a host of nations. At 4 C that group includes a majority of nations on Earth.

      I appreciate that they mention risks to fixed energy infrastructure. Most of these facilities — by necessity — border rivers, lakes and oceans. All will be pushed hard by droughts, floods, and sea level rise. It’s one reason why I stump so vigorously for modular renewables. They’re a much less vulnerable kind of infrastructure.

      Reply
      • John McCormick

         /  February 20, 2016

        Add to the list “food riots and collapse of governments”

        Reply
      • – Yes, and your efforts at offering remedies are much appreciated. Remedies and preventative measures have to be stressed and put into action.
        I try to that, as well.:)

        – Other than that, I do like to see how, what/or not, others are attempting or gathering data on. Any that are common to other efforts, I share with.
        There are many pieces to this fluid and dynamic puzzle — understatement.
        Take care.
        TALLY HO

        DT

        Reply
  38. Reply
  39. – Another USA record high superseding 1930. Hmmm — the old dust bowl days.
    NWS St. Louis ‏@NWSStLouis 1h1 hour ago

    #StLouis has set new daily record high of 77° today. Old record of 76° was set in 1930. #stlwx

    Reply
    • Long range forecast shows major drought risk emerging for that region this spring and summer. Although, given what’s happened to the El Niño rains, I wouldn’t be surprised if the SW is involved as well.

      Reply
    • Andy in SD

       /  February 20, 2016

      If it wasn’t for groundwater that area would have been in trouble some time ago. Problem is the rate of extraction, they are slurping up a finite resource.

      It is like a lower insanity version of the wheat farms in Saudi Arabia.

      Reply
  40. – Significant weather 2015-16
    We’ve had super strong cyclone/hurricanes (Patricia and Winston) in both oceans Pacific and Atlantic — both sides of the equator.

    Check this out (Winston). Will Fiji/Tonga wash away…?

    Reply
  41. Drought ends in Brazil’s Sao Paulo but future still uncertain

    Water levels at the main reservoir in Brazil’s largest city of Sao Paulo have more than doubled since the El Niño climate phenomenon ended a two-year drought, although industrialists and activists warn fresh shortages may be just a matter of time.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-water-idUSKCN0VR1YJ

    Reply
  42. redskylite

     /  February 20, 2016

    Those Pacific Islands are very vulnerable to sea level rise and increased intensity cyclones, still a marked reluctance to accept their plight. Artificial Islands a solution for the future ? seems like a plan . . .

    Go for it Kiribati ..

    Kiribati is hoping to build artificial islands in a bid of saving the low-lying nation from rising sea levels that look set to turn it into a modern-day Atlantis. President Anote Tong said they are seeking help from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) engineers to work out how they could feasibly create artificial islands to protect the country from future climate change.

    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/climate-change-kiribati-turns-artificial-islands-save-nation-atlantis-fate-1544942

    Reply
  43. Abel Adamski

     /  February 20, 2016

    That missing Arctic cold is making it’s presence elsewhere
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/20/us/tropical-cyclone-winston-fiji/

    Also covering the freezing cold in Taiwan and Hong Kong

    Reply
  44. Kevin Jones

     /  February 20, 2016

    Scripps and NOAA are reporting what appear to be record high CO2 in their hourly averages. Either side of 407 ppm. DMI showing +11C Arctic surface temp. spike for area 80 degrees N to 90N. NASA’s Arctic Ozone Watch showing troublesome stratospheric O3 depletion. Arctic Sea Ice Extant takes another drop….. raining here in New Hampshire this morning in February. (the birds are singing…)

    Reply
  45. Colorado Bob

     /  February 20, 2016

    ‘Ice age blob’ of warm ocean water discovered south of Greenland

    New research published in Scientific Reports in February indicates that a warm ocean surface water prevailed during the last ice age, sandwiched between two major ice sheets just south of Greenland.

    Extreme climate changes in the past Ice core records show that Greenland went through 25 extreme and abrupt climate changes during the last ice age some 20,000 to 70,000 years ago. In less than 50 years the air temperatures over Greenland could increase by 10 to 15 °C. However the warm periods were short; within a few centuries the frigid temperatures of the ice age returned. That kind of climate change would have been catastrophic for us today.

    Link

    Reply
    • Mblanc

       /  February 20, 2016

      Interestingly, this piece of research comes out of the Centre for
      Arctic Gas Hydrate, Environment and Climate in Tromso, Norway.

      I guess this institution is of some interest to posters on here. Worth a look, I think

      https://cage.uit.no/

      Reply
  46. Colorado Bob

     /  February 20, 2016

    Glup –

    Colossal Antarctic ice-shelf collapse followed last ice age

    “This continent-enveloping ice sheet extended all the way to the continental shelf, and in western Antarctica it filled the entire Ross Sea basin.” ………………………. In western Antarctica, the Ross Sea is characterized by a continental shelf that extends nearly 1,000 miles from the coast and is as much as 3,500 feet deep. Anderson said the geologic record shows that as recently as 18,000 years ago the entire Ross basin was filled with ice that was so thick and heavy it was grounded on the seafloor all the way to the edge of the continental shelf.

    “We found that about 10,000 years ago, this thick, grounded ice sheet broke apart in dramatic fashion,” Anderson said. “The evidence shows that an armada of icebergs—each at least twice as tall as the Empire State Building—was pushed out en masse. We know this because this part of the Ross Sea is about 550 meters (1,804 feet) deep, and the icebergs were so large and so tightly packed that they gouged huge furrows into the seafloor as they moved north.”

    Read more at: Link

    Reply
  47. Cate

     /  February 20, 2016

    Newfoundland long-range forecast analysis by the local CBC meteorologist. The North American Ensemble Forecast System and Global Ensemble Prediction System charts show high probabilities for above-normal temps in Greenland for the next 15-30 days.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/ryan-snoddon-one-month-before-spring-1.3455834

    Reply
  48. Kevin Jones

     /  February 20, 2016

    Arctic Sea Ice Area and Extent now both below where they were 10 days ago. CT and NOAA Both in record low time-of-year territory.

    Reply
  49. Reply
  50. Reply
  51. – Relating to my earlier comment:
    – Significant weather 2015-16
    We’ve had super strong cyclone/hurricanes (Patricia and Winston) in both oceans Pacific and Atlantic — both sides of the equator.

    ‘Last year, Hurr Patricia became strongest in NHem. Today, #TCWinston breaks SHem record.’

    Reply
    • ‘Meteorologist Bob Henson said that prior to landfall, Winston attained a “nearly ideal environment for intensification.” Exceptionally warm ocean temperatures egged on by a record-strength El Niño were a big reason why Winston was so strong. At one point, satellite-based intensity estimates of Winston were a perfect 8.0 on an 8.0 scale. Winston also took a very atypical track to arrive in Fiji, making landfall from the East—the opposite of the usual direction—which may have left residents unprepared, and amounts to a worst case scenario for the island chain.’

      http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/02/20/cyclone_winston_batters_fiji.html

      Reply
      • ‘Winston comes less than four months after Hurricane Patricia broke the Western Hemisphere strength record, and likely the Northern Hemisphere record as well. Patricia’s top sustained winds were estimated at 215 mph based on an extrapolation from U.S. research aircraft flying through the storm. Winston and other recent super intense Pacific storms, like Haiyan which made landfall in the Philippines in 2013, didn’t have that sort of direct measurement.

        Ironically, earlier this week, Fiji became the first country in the world to formally ratify the Paris agreement on climate change, which commits its signatories to reducing emissions…’
        – slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/02/20/cyclone_winston

        Reply
      • – Jeff Masters and Bob Henson at WU

        On Friday afternoon, Winston was in a nearly ideal environment for intensification, with wind shear a moderate 10 – 15 knots, excellent upper-level outflow channels to both the north and the south, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 31°C (88°F). These SSTs are about 1.5°C (2.7°F) above average. Unusually warm waters extend to great depth, giving Winston a high Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) in excess of 75 kJ/cm^2, a value which is often associated with rapid intensification. Satellite imagery on Friday afternoon showed that Winston had a large area of heavy thunderstorms concentrated in a donut shape around a 18-mile diameter eye, with very few outer spiral bands. This structure may qualify Winston as an “annular” hurricane–a special subclass of hurricanes which are more resistant to weakening than regular hurricanes.

        http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/fiji-pounded-by-its-first-category-5-storm-on-record-tropical-cyclone

        Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  February 22, 2016

      Was thinking the same thing. All over the globe, in every part of the ocean we are seeing some of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, and seeing hurricanes where there haven’t typically been hurricanes. As with everything these days, if you step back and look at the larger picture you see the fingerprints of anthropogenic warming all over. It’s very clear, and very troubling.

      Reply
  52. – History 1935:
    On September 2, 1935, Labor Day, the hurricane reached a peak intensity of 892 mb. The hurricane made landfall later that night as a Category 5 storm, crossing the Florida Keys between Key West and Miami, FL. As it made landfall, the hurricane delivered maximum sustained winds of approximately 298 km/h (185 mph).

    http://www.hurricanescience.org/history/storms/1930s/LaborDay/

    Reply
  53. -In February 2014, the village of Vunidogoloa on Vanua Levu became the first community in Fiji to relocate because of coastal erosion and flooding attributed in part to climate change. The village moved to higher ground two kilometers inland. Image credit: Nansen Initiative, courtesy UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
    – WU

    Reply
  54. “In an effort to strike back at record-breaking EV sales, the fossil fuel industry is allegedly funding a new organization that will spend $10 million a year to push petroleum-based transportation fuels and attack government subsidies on EVs, refining industry sources told the Huffington Post.

    “According to HuffPo, a Koch Industries board member and a veteran Washington energy lobbyist will be involved in the purported EV-squashing initiative.

    “’I think they (are) approaching all the major independent refiners,’ one industry source explained to HuffPo.

    “The mission of the still-unnamed group will be to ‘make the public aware of all the benefits of petroleum-based transportation fuels,’ the source said, adding that “the current administration has a bias toward phasing out” these fuels.

    “‘(The Kochs are) worried about state and community subsidies.’ the source said. ‘In 20 years, electric vehicles could have a substantial foothold in the U.S. market.’

    “Oil baron brothers Charles and David Koch of are two of the four richest Americans according to Forbes, holding more than $80 billion combined in net worth. It’s an open secret that the conservative oil barons have funneled eye-popping sums of money to curry influence in their favor, including nearly $1 billion to GOP candidates for the 2016 presidential election as well as vicious campaigns against climate change and renewable energy. … ”

    http://ecowatch.com/2016/02/19/koch-brothers-war-on-evs/

    Reply
  55. Colorado Bob

     /  February 21, 2016

    Trump wins South Carolina –
    Madness… Madness

    Reply
    • redskylite

       /  February 21, 2016

      Bridge over the River Kwai was a most brilliant film, which I watched at a local flee pit/cinema as a small boy, the whistling theme still echoes in my eyes. Lieutenant Colonel Nicholson seems a model for the most ardent climate change denier. Madness its Madness part of me is still stuck in the early 1980’s and you just lit up a light bulb in my mind.

      Reply
  56. Hello again
    Everyone refers to 1880, but our industrial era really began in 1750 (ish)
    If we want to take that in account, we need to add 0,2°C on top of that +1,38°C
    So, here we are at + 1,58°C above the true beginning of the industrial era😦
    http://www.climatecodered.org/

    Reply
  57. Andy Lee Robinson

     /  February 21, 2016

    Here’s an Arctic Death Spiral for January…
    It’s going to be an interesting year.

    Reply
  58. – A bit weather action off the PNW:

    Reply
  59. Reply
    • – Actually this one:

      Reply
      • – Or, “What’s your vector, Victor?

        Reply
      • Mblanc

         /  February 22, 2016

        That is another fine example of genuine leadership, it can’t be an easy thing in a country as vast as the US.

        KA spoke movingly of his uncle in Australia, whose health was failing. To know that you will never see a family member again, because of your commitment to leadership, shows the kind of sacrifices we all need to face up to.

        Dr Peter Kalmus, I take my hat off to you!

        Reply
  60. ‘I’m a Climate Scientist Who Doesn’t Fly’

    It took three years to quit air travel. Here’s one man’s carbon-cutting journey.
    I’m a climate scientist who doesn’t fly. I try to avoid burning fossil fuels, because it’s clear that doing so causes real harm to humans and to nonhumans, today and far into the future. I don’t like harming others, so I don’t fly. Back in 2010, though, I was awash in cognitive dissonance. My awareness of global warming had risen to a fever pitch, but I hadn’t yet made real changes to my daily life. This disconnect made me feel panicked and disempowered.

    Then one evening in 2011, I gathered my utility bills and did some Internet research…
    This picture came as a surprise. I’d assumed that electricity and driving were my largest sources of emissions. Instead, it turned out that the 50,000 miles I’d flown that year (two international and half a dozen domestic flights, typical for postdocs in the sciences who are expected to attend conferences and meetings) utterly dominated my emissions.

    Hour for hour, there’s no better way to warm the planet than to fly in a plane…

    However, the total climate impact of planes is likely two to three times greater than the impact from the CO2 emissions alone. This is because planes emit mono-nitrogen oxides into the upper troposphere, form contrails and seed cirrus clouds with aerosols from fuel combustion. These three effects enhance warming in the short term.
    http://m.thetyee.ca/Opinion/2016/02/17/Climate-Scientist-No-Fly/

    http://m.thetyee.ca/Opinion/2016/02/17/Climate-Scientist-No-Fly/

    Reply
  61. ‘I’m a Climate Scientist Who Doesn’t Fly’

    It took three years to quit air travel. Here’s one man’s carbon-cutting journey.
    I’m a climate scientist who doesn’t fly. I try to avoid burning fossil fuels, because it’s clear that doing so causes real harm to humans and to nonhumans, today and far into the future. I don’t like harming others, so I don’t fly. Back in 2010, though, I was awash in cognitive dissonance. My awareness of global warming had risen to a fever pitch, but I hadn’t yet made real changes to my daily life. This disconnect made me feel panicked and disempowered.

    Then one evening in 2011, I gathered my utility bills and did some Internet research…

    This picture came as a surprise. I’d assumed that electricity and driving were my largest sources of emissions. Instead, it turned out that the 50,000 miles I’d flown that year (two international and half a dozen domestic flights, typical for postdocs in the sciences who are expected to attend conferences and meetings) utterly dominated my emissions.

    Hour for hour, there’s no better way to warm the planet than to fly in a plane…

    However, the total climate impact of planes is likely two to three times greater than the impact from the CO2 emissions alone. This is because planes emit mono-nitrogen oxides into the upper troposphere, form contrails and seed cirrus clouds with aerosols from fuel combustion. These three effects enhance warming in the short term.
    http://m.thetyee.ca/Opinion/2016/02/17/Climate-Scientist-No-Fly/

    – Robert, please delete my earlier two link post.
    Must discipline my mouse. you know.:)

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  February 21, 2016

      DTL –
      I like the Twitter links mostly, I used the Monarch Pass one today. But sometimes they read as gibberish. And one must hunt and peck for the meat of the thing. And I never signed on it , I thought 140 characters was the last step in the dumbing down of Western Civilization. Where we all had the attention span of a gerbil.

      Insert smiley face here.

      By the way, we all pay attention to your hard work here. If this doesn’t work-out , I can get you a job in grocery store a cross the street . “Fellow says you’re going to be ‘Cracker Jack’ clerk ”
      ‘Cracker Jack’,

      Insert 2 smiley faces here.

      “It’s good steady work”

      Reply
      • – Yeah, and with a ‘prize in every box’.
        So it goes…
        Thanks.

        Reply
      • – And, good tweets are hell to write but these short bursts of newsworthy links are a good way to scan for an important link or informative graphic. A page of tweets hold quite a few ‘headline’ type bits from those I wish to hear from. And pass on to others.
        For me it’s easy to scan for kernels of info.
        Plus I can go the latest tweets from any one of them to see what’s up.
        As it is, my time, and attention spans, are usually available in short bursts.

        Reply
      • Ryan in New England

         /  February 22, 2016

        Bob, the 140 character attention span was another step in dumbing down of America…Trump becoming the Republican nominee for President is the final step in that process. This nuthouse has become Lord of the Flies, overrun and ruled by stupid children with no knowledge, wisdom or intelligence, and emotionally dominated by fear, afraid of what they don’t understand, which happens to be everything.

        Reply
      • John McCormick

         /  February 22, 2016

        Ryan, You pegged it. We are in the land of the Lord of the Flies. It had a bad ending.

        Reply
  62. Colorado Bob

     /  February 21, 2016

    DTL –

    The best time of my life was in Torrance, California on Saturday mornings. In a very old Tandy Leather store at Supulvada and Hawthorne . I taught my customers leather work for free,
    I had two rules , No religion, no politics.

    Every Saturday we worked to this sound track

    Leaving Torrance was the great mistake of mt life.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  February 21, 2016

      A junkie stole my sound system when I transferred to Vegas.

      Stole it right under my nose.

      2 weeks after I got there, a customer asked me, “Well what do you think of Vegas?”

      I replied, “Mister. I’ve been in some shit holes, but this one is the biggest , and the most well lite one yet”

      I had to walk over needles to take out the trash.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  February 21, 2016

        I fell apart. I was lost. I left for Texas. I would give anything to have stayed in Torrance. and those Saturday mornings.

        Reply
      • – A Las Vegas bit for Bob. Anything can and will happen in that electrified desert outpost.

        – Pardon the following riff on US culture:

        The now deceased Hunter Thompson went on his ‘Fear and Loathing’ trip to Las Vegas because he couldn’t take the heat of the L A Sheriffs after they had killed L A Times reporter Ruben Salazar with a pointed tear gas projectile to the head.
        Thompson should have stayed in the trenches of East L A — and covered for the slain Salazar.
        Instead drove wild eyed to Las Vegas where he embedded himself in a hotel full of drunken District Attorneys on convention. Thompson was there to cover , I think, a desert car race — punk assignment .
        We got ‘Gonzo-izm In Las Vegas’.

        Of course I read, and got enjoyment from every word of his screeds. And he also lucked out to have Ralph Steadman illustrate his pieces.

        But most of all Rueben Salazar went down in LA — and Hunter just split.

        OUT

        Reply
    • – It’s good music all right.
      Elmer Bernstein (RIP) used to come into the bookstore where I used to work. A very nice man and easy to talk to.
      Sometimes I would mention some old film he scored.

      Ps In the late 50’s and early 60’s I spent a lot of time on the other side of Baldwin Hills in Culver City. Movie and TV studios a couple blocks away. Many ‘field trips’ through the back lots of Desilou and RKO. I knew the back side of what movie viewers saw on the screen — plywood, paint, and 2×4’s…

      Reply
  63. Colorado Bob

     /  February 21, 2016

    Those mornings when this was on, everyone was there just. to learn. I played the entire soundtrack . Sometimes I had 12 students. I taught them everything I knew for free. They just had to buy my glue.

    Reply
  64. Colorado Bob

     /  February 21, 2016

    None of my students have ever forgotten buying glue from me.

    Reply
  65. Colorado Bob

     /  February 21, 2016

    I am a crazy old man with a keyboard, That’s the beauty of today.
    Before me.
    Every crazy old man had to die alone.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  February 21, 2016

      Deal with it.

      CNN
      6 dead in Kalamazoo County shooting spree; suspect in custody.

      Your odds of being murdered by an Islamist Terrorist attack are 5,000 percent lower than being shot by a 3 year old child.
      3-year-old accidentally shoots mother in head

      http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2016/02/3-year-old_accidentally_discha.html

      Reply
    • redskylite

       /  February 21, 2016

      Colorado Bob – you are not a crazy old man, you are an experienced old man, who’s contributions to this blog are appreciated by it’s readers. You have had a colorful and rich life, do not doubt it.

      Reply
      • Nah. Me thinks he is a crazy old man. At a time when we desperately need crazy old men bold enough to speak up. More of us should hope to become crazy old men. Keep at it, Bob!

        Reply
  66. Colorado Bob

     /  February 21, 2016

    An ocean of guns will solve all our problems.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  February 21, 2016

      We just shoot every one who doesn’t think like us.

      The failed artist said,

      60 million people died.

      Reply
  67. Vic

     /  February 21, 2016

    Interesting to see how sea surface temps have dropped in the Fiji region over the last week.

    And somewhat disturbing to see the Great Barrier Reef heating up. GBR has escaped bleaching so far in this current global bleaching event, but for how much longer ?

    Reply
    • Vic

       /  February 21, 2016

      Here’s what happened on the Great Barrier Reef during the last two bleaching events.

      Reply
      • doug

         /  February 21, 2016

        I thought this was a graph describing American citizens.

        Reply
      • Vic

         /  February 21, 2016

        I don’t blame you Doug. That’s simply uncanny!

        But let’s hope the real numbers aren’t actually worse than presented.

        I’ve just realised I took that chart from the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, which is an Australian Government run organisation with demonstrated links to the coal and gas industries. Oops.

        If I search the Guardian for “GBRMPA corruption” I get 24 results in 0.19 seconds.

        Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  February 21, 2016

      Vic –
      America is headed a fool as it’s leader. All bets are off.

      Reply
    • Vic

       /  February 21, 2016

      The significance of coral reefs as global carbon sinks— response to Greenhouse

      http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/092181819190117F

      “…Thus, coral reefs at present act as a sink for 111 million tonnes C yr−1, the equivalent of 2% of present output of anthropogenic CO2. In the short term Greenhouse scenario (100 yr) we predict this could increase to the equivalent of ∼ 4% of the present CO2 output. In the much longer term (several centuries), if all trends continue, this could increase to the equivalent of as much as ∼ 9% of the present CO2 output.

      Unfortunately, we also predict that this considerable sink for C will be most likely of negative value in alleviating Greenhouse because of the immediate effect of CaCO3 precipitation is to raise the PCO2 of the surface oceans — ie, to encourage CO2 efflux to the atmosphere. We do not attempt to quantify this effect.”

      Reply
  68. Colorado Bob

     /  February 21, 2016

    redskylite / February 21, 2016

    Colorado Bob – you are not a crazy old man, you are an experienced old man,

    Hell is coming breakfast. Buckle chin your strap.

    Reply
  69. Colorado Bob

     /  February 21, 2016

    Guns. Guns.Guns. If we all had just one more gun. Every thing would be so much better. Except for that 23 year-old, who was shot in the head by her 3 year-old.

    Guns. Guns.Guns. If we all had just one more gun.

    Reply
  70. Colorado Bob

     /  February 21, 2016

    Vic / February 21, 2016

    After all the jacks are in their boxes
    And the clowns have all gone to bed

    Great song …………….. But the clowns are running for the President of the United States of America.

    Reply
    • Vic

       /  February 21, 2016

      I’m still tipping Al Gore for 2020. Seriously.

      Reply
      • Ryan in New England

         /  February 22, 2016

        Vic, imagine how different this world would be if the Supreme Court (of which Scalia was influential) never took the 2000 election from Gore. We probably wouldn’t be in Iraq. Which, if we never destabilized the region so much we probably wouldn’t be dealing with ISIS. We would not have taken a surplus from the Clinton era and turned it into a multi-trillion dollar deficit from multiple wars and massive tax cuts for the richest among us. And most importantly, we would have made so much more progress in reducing emissions and transitioning to renewables. We would have avoided a decade of securing oil and gas resources throughout the middle east by way of our military. Things would be far different if Bush never stole the Presidency.

        Reply
  71. Eric Thurston

     /  February 21, 2016

    A begrudging acknowledgement in the NY Times about climate change just possibly having something to do with the spread of tropical diseases.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/21/world/americas/in-zika-epidemic-a-warning-on-climate-change.html

    Reply
  72. After 2 years of being nearly 100% immersed in climate change…
    I have to say this is the best blog around.
    Thank you very much Robert:-)
    And yes, keep fighting.

    Reply
  73. The Arctic temperature distribution chart in this post led me to pondering, and I created a related Post: What Happens if Arctic Ice Seasonally Disappears?

    http://aireform.com/what-happens-if-arctic-ice-seasonally-disappears/

    Thanks for your working so hard, Robert, and having so many great participants on this blog.

    Reply
    • Andy in SD

       /  February 22, 2016

      Thanks for that.

      I read your post and it explained the moderating effect extremely clearly. A very good read!

      Thanks again.

      Reply
  74. Reply
  75. – Bob, ICYMI I replied to you — up underneath your Magnificent 7 post.

    Reply
  76. InsideClimate News ‏@insideclimate 7h7 hours ago

    5 more earthquakes rattle parts of Oklahoma Friday http://wp.me/p4ySsy-15d9 via @KSNNews #fracking

    Reply
  77. Reply
  78. Reply
  79. – Moss used to monitor air pollution.
    ( I wonder what they found re wood burning and car exhaust…) (Dry land algae blooms after precipitation events are what I see. But will/can it become moss — or same same? Lots of N NOX in wood burning and vehicle exhaust to act as nutrient.)

    ‘Portland pollution discovered almost as afterthought’

    PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — The recent discovery of toxic pollution hotspots in Portland came almost as an afterthought.
    Two U.S. Forest Service researchers who studied tree moss samples from around the city were primarily interested in testing for pollution from wood smoke and car exhaust, The Oregonian reported.
    One of the researchers, Geoffrey Donovan, wasn’t keen on the idea of testing for carcinogenic heavy metals, but his colleague, Sarah Jovan, convinced him — in part because it was relatively cheap to do so, a bargain at $50 dollars per sample to test 25 metals…
    http://tdn.com/news/state-and-regional/oregon/portland-pollution-discovered-almost-as-afterthought/article_9bece833-f72c-58b2-b5bd-39da0ead14db.html

    Reply
  80. A recent study in the efectiveness of tropical forest protected areas surprised me. I expected that the efectiveness would vary wildly between countries as show, that richer countries would have better efectiveness and that deforestation near protected areas would affect deforestation inside protected areas, as show also. I also expected efectiveness of Brasil’s protected areas to be far worst than what the study showed, but it was in the “blues” still. That and the fact that Imazon has just announced that january’s Amazon forest deforestment alert’s are down 82% (economic crisis expected effects, but still good news) just made my day.
    http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0143886

    Reply
  81. Ironic silverlining in permafrost thawing: commerce in mamoth tusks may help save elephants: https://www.aeaweb.org/aea/2016conference/program/retrieve.php?pdfid=127

    The good thing is that, unlike “historical” ivory, pieces made with mamoth ivory can be easily distinguished from elephant ivory, using only a light, a magnifing lens and knowledge. So commerce in legal and illegal ivory could be easily separed.

    Reply
  82. Keeling_Curve ‏@Keeling_curve 1h1 hour ago

    404.69 parts per million (ppm) CO2 in air 20-Feb-2016 http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

    Reply
  83. – Besides the current science etc. — it was the focus of action oriented environmental and social justice in a cooperative spirit (see RS masthead) that really drew me here to RS.
    ( And his team of ‘Cracker Jack’ contributors.)
    ( And his policing of ‘trolls’ etc. — not an easy task.)

    – His wizardry of putting up timely, accurate, and comprehensive posts are something else.

    DT
    cc: Robert

    Reply
  84. – So far…

    Reply
  85. – NE Pac. Two lows … w/seas over 40 ft w/each system.

    Reply
  86. Warmer seas linked to disease epidemics affecting Pacific starfish and Atlantic lobster

    Warmer seas have been linked to disease epidemics affecting the populations of marine species in both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

    Starfish off the west coast of the US and Canada have endured high levels of a physically degenerative wasting disease which causes them to lose their limbs and die.

    In addition, lobster off the coast of New England are experiencing increasing levels of shell disease.

    New evidence, published by the Royal Society B, has linked both events to rising sea temperatures.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/warmer-seas-linked-to-disease-epidemics-affecting-pacific-starfish-and-atlantic-lobster-a6886936.html

    Reply
  87. Abel Adamski

     /  February 22, 2016

    Courtesy of Peter Sinclair, the Danish record 1922-1939
    http://gergs.net/2013/07/more-northern-sea-ice/

    Reply
  88. Peter Malsin

     /  February 22, 2016

    Climate Reanalyzer today shows (air) temp anomaly @ .89° C above 1979-2000 baseline. I’ve not seen it above +.60° that I can recall.

    Reply
  89. Keeling_Curve ‏@Keeling_curve 28m28 minutes ago

    405.94 parts per million (ppm) CO2 in air 21-Feb-2016

    Reply
  90. Reply
  91. Cate

     /  February 22, 2016

    Oh dear. Canadians weigh in on causes and solutions, and the results show how far we are from understanding what we are facing.

    http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/study-canadians-split-in-whether-humans-hurt-the-climate/64015/

    Reply
  92. Reply
  93. Reply
  94. Reply
  95. Hey Ladies and Gents,

    There’s some other important papers in that PNAS issue…

    Antarctica could be more vulnerable to major melting than we thought

    …the climate modeling study that was published at the same time as the study of the deep ocean drill core found that by adding several new processes and features to the simulation which speed up the rate of Antarctic ice collapse, it was possible to reproduce the presumed ice loss from Antarctica during the Miocene with only 500 parts per million or so of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

    Those factors include so-called “hydrofracture” — in which Antarctic ice shelves, which stabilize inland ice, shatter and fall apart as water pools on their surfaces, much as happened in recent memory with the Larsen A and Larsen B ice shelves — and “cliff collapse,” in which the sheer walls of ice that linger behind after hydrofracturing also crumble, due to the relative weakness of ice as a material.

    We’re adding and including new physical processes in these models, and the result of that is we’ve begun to be able to simulate with these models the kinds of changes in the ice sheets that the geologists see,” says DeConto. He continued: “We were able to generate sea level going up and down again, on the order of tens of meters, like 30 meters, without having to go to extremely high levels of CO2.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/02/22/antarctica-could-be-more-vulnerable-to-major-melting-than-we-thought/

    Reply
  96. Abel Adamski

     /  February 23, 2016

    Rather OT I know, but truly fascinating in the biological and geological sense
    http://phys.org/news/2016-02-great-secrets-earth-evolution.html

    Reply
  1. Arctic Sea Ice Setting Multiple New Record Lows in 2016 | Aviation Impact Reform
  2. links | keep resisting!
  3. Arctic System in Marked Decline | Planet in Distress
  4. Notiser | Förändringens tid
  5. A Monster 2016 Arctic Melt Season May Have Already Begun | robertscribbler
  6. A Monster 2016 Arctic Melt Season May Have Already Begun | Damn the Matrix
  7. Ocieplenie ziemskiej atmosfery przyspiesza (aktualizacja: 27.02.2016) | Blog exignoranta
  8. The Roof is On Fire — Looks like February of 2016 Was 1.5 to 1.7 C Above 1880s Averages | robertscribbler
  9. Ártico Sem Inverno em 2016 - NASA Marca Janeiro Mais Quente Já Registado - Aquecimento Global

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 7,004 other followers

%d bloggers like this: