Gale After Gale After Gale Dumped Two and a Half Feet of Rain Upon Scotland and Wales This Winter

Reports from the UK Met Office are in. And we can say now with confidence that the UK have never seen weather like what they experienced this Winter. It looks like a storm track super-charged by climate change really socked it to the region this year. That we’ve just passed a winter worse than the then record years of 2013 and 2014 — only two years on.

A Stormy New Climate State for the North Atlantic

For the UK and for North Atlantic weather stability in general, the sea surface temperature anomaly signature in the graphic below is bad news. The cool pool just south of Greenland (indicated by the swatch of pale blue) is a new climate feature. One that appears to be related to glacial ice melt outflow from Greenland.

North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

(10 degree Celsius above average sea surface temperatures off North America in today’s ensemble sea surface temperature model graphic are just insanely warm. Ocean surface anomalies used to rarely exceed 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average. These spikes off North America are an indication that the Gulf Stream is backing up and that overturning circulation off Greenland is slowing down. Image source: RTG-SST/NCEP /US National Weather Service/Earth Nullschool.)

Such melt outflow tends to slightly freshen sea surface waters. Freshening waters keep more heat locked into the ocean’s depths. They tend to cool the surface waters. And they slow down an ocean overturning circulation that, in the North Atlantic, drives the flow of the Gulf Stream.

A slowing Gulf Stream delivers less heat to this zone even as it piles more heat up off the North American Coast. As a result, a warm west, cool east dipole tends to develop. In the cool region south of Greenland, unusually strong storms have developed more and more frequently — with a dramatic impact on UK weather. The storms feed on this temperature differential even as they have gorged on heat and moisture streaming northward in a meridional flow over Western Europe. The results this year were nothing short of record-shattering.

Hottest and Wettest

For England and Wales, with temperatures ranging about 2 degrees Celsius above average for December, January and February, 2015-2016 probably beat out 2007 and 1989 as the hottest Winter on record. Meanwhile, Wales and Scotland saw the most rainfall ever recorded — with totals for both regions hitting around 756 millimeters or about two and one half feet. That’s even more rainfall than the previous record stormy Winter of 2013 and 2014.

Yet one more Gale

(Yet one more gale sets up to hammer Ireland, the UK and Scotland by Thursday. Four months of ongoing stormy conditions appears set to continue through to at least mid-March. Image source: NOAA’s Ocean Prediction Center.)

These heavy rains set off severe floods and damaged homes, roads, and bridges throughout the UK with the worst damage focusing in on regions to the North. One heavy precipitation hot spot — Argyll — saw an extraordinary 1035 mm or 3.5 feet of rainfall over the three month period. The Met Office is quick to point out that though December, January and February were the wettest on record since 1910, heavy rainfall events began in November — resulting in what amounts to a relentless four month pounding as storm followed storm and flood followed flood.

And, it appears, this persistent and ongoing storm pattern has not yet changed. For the North Atlantic remains riled — setting up to hurl a new gale-force low at Ireland and the UK this week. With the weather pattern essentially stuck in stormy since November, folks from these regions have got to be asking — when’s it going to end? As storms continue to fire off in the dipole zone above, it appears it will likely last until at least mid-March.

Links:

The UK Met Office

NOAA’s Ocean Prediction Center

World Ocean Heartbeat Fading

RTG-SST/NCEP /US National Weather Service/Earth Nullschool

Winter of 2015/2016 Wettest on Record for Scotland

Mystery Deepens Around Greenland Cold Spot

Hat tip to Colorado Bob

Hat tip to TodaysGuestIs

Hat tip to Dan Combs

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a comment

67 Comments

  1. redskylite

     /  March 2, 2016

    Thanks for the great in depth article highlighting the strange winter we are experiencing, the monster El Nino may have had something to do with it, but only because it was spurred on by the results of climate change. This blockbuster from Eric Holthaus of Slate today on February.

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2016/03/01/february_2016_s_shocking_global_warming_temperature_record.html

    Reply
    • Well done, Dr Holthaus! But man, I kinda really don’t like seeing a continuation of this trend we’ve covered for so long here. It’s the Never Ending Warming.

      Reply
      • Kevin Jones

         /  March 2, 2016

        The New Hampshire Maple Producers Association announces Maple Sugaring Month festivities run from March 12-April 3. The National Weather Service 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook tells me the season is over before it begun. On the 9th I’ll attend a panel discussion at the local college. The topic: Sugaring and Climate Change. An old friend and fellow woods worker will be on the panel. 25 years ago our boss returned my copy of McKibben’s The End of Nature, saying “A good writer, like you said, but it’s not going to happen in my lifetime!”

        Reply
      • Kevin Jones

         /  March 2, 2016

        I should have added, a good sap run requires overnight temps in the 20’s F. Highs in the low-mid 40’s F. And winds between N and W. S or E wind curiously shuts down trees regardless of temp. We used to get springs with 4-6 weeks of this weather. 41F, wind S and steady rain as I write at 6:39 A.M……

        Reply
      • Cate

         /  March 2, 2016

        Kevin, that’s fascinating. I googled “maple syrup season 2016” and everywhere it’s “early”, it seems. The lack of snow around the bases of trees is another problem, apparently, according to this report from New Brunswick, where they expect a shorter season than usual, and where some producers began tapping in January.

        http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/maple-syrup-season-starting-1.3459622

        Reply
      • Kevin Jones

         /  March 2, 2016

        Yes, Cate. Sap has a similar ‘shelf life’ to milk. Snow cover helps keep it cool…keep the wee beasties from eating the sugar….keep the trees from budding too soon which is game over for the season. I was at a large ‘bush’ yesterday. One I’d worked in for 20 years. No snow at all on ground which is a first in my memory for March 1st.

        Reply
      • Robert – this slate article about the preliminary numbers is exactly what I want to ask you about! It states “it appears that February 2016 was likely somewhere between 1.15 and 1.4 degrees warmer than the long-term average, and about 0.2 degrees above last month”….now, according to your awesome summary of the January numbers we were 1.38C above 1880 baseline (the one nobody uses anymore!!) – so, correct me if I’m wrong here, but…if February is indeed about 0.2 degrees higher than January we are looking at OVER 1.5C for the month – thereby making it the first month on record to 1) shatter Paris’s oh-so-brave 1.5C mark about 84 early and 2) to pass the dreaded “1.5C and here comes massive permafrost thaw carbon feedback.” Am I getting this right (assuming the official data comes in at these numbers?)

        Reply
  2. Mblanc

     /  March 2, 2016

    ‘The old normal has gone’…I worry that we wont see a ‘new’ normal, because the climate is now a moving target.

    So, the old normal is gone, and none of us will see normal again.

    Thanks for keeping on top of this, I can’t find anyone in the UK really joining up the dots on the Greenland cold spot. At some point, this will become a massive story here, I’m sure.

    Reply
    • It will probably become very widely accepted science soon. Then you’ll hear more in the way of reports. At that point we’ll be debating melt rates and what will happen to the thermal balance of the oceans and, of course, the difficult topic of feedbacks. Hopefully, we’ll be well on our way to a full renewable based economy too. Here’s to hoping and working for it. Less and less time every day.

      Reply
  3. climatehawk1

     /  March 2, 2016

    Tweeted. Hate to say it, but I’m prepared to like almost anything that can break us out of the trance we seem to be in.

    Reply
    • In the UK, or everywhere? In my view the best cure for fear is action. That’s why this republican sand bagging is so darn destructive. It’s not just that climate change is coming on hard and fast. It’s the fact that climate change denial and renewable energy denial are keeping people from working together to reduce the damage. That is sort of despair and panic inducing. We need to figure out a way to harness the fear and turn it into action. More and more, I do see people I consider to be leaders picking people up by their bootstraps — the Pope, Bill Nye, a host of new climate bloggers and meteorologists that get it. There is systemic change happening. It’s just that the social and institutional inertia holding it back is extraordinary.

      Reply
      • I believe it’s largely a question of climate literacy. Next Tuesday I’m leading a discussion on ‘Climate Change après Paris’ (not my title) in Brecon, mid-Wales. I’ve been preparing for it as best I can for nearly 3 months, with this blog being a major source of information (for which, many thanks).

        On reflection, I’d give myself a climate literacy score of about 3/10 before I started this phase of study…and that’s after closely following the science and debates for 5 years, and taking a couple of MOOCs. Now I’m probably up to a score of about 6/10. Still big gaps in my knowledge, but after intensive and relentless study, it’s coming together.

        My day job is in policy and research. Not climate science, obviously, but I am professionally trained to read technical documents, translate them into common language, and assess likely impacts etc. Even so, getting my head around even the basics of climate science has been doing my head in. And very few of my professional colleagues really get it at all. Or if they do the knowledge is heavily suppressed.

        At school, several decades ago, my interests were in the humanities and I struggled with science. I eventually gained a first degree in psychology as a mature student. All in all then, I’m an averagely intelligent citizen…and gaining an understanding of climate change has been hard. Against the numerous other demands on our time, climate change has very limited appeal.

        So, increasing climate literacy is a big issue. Without it, mobilisation is going to be slow and almost certainly inadequate.

        Reply
  4. dan combs

     /  March 2, 2016

    Robert, my respect for you and your site is such that a link to it is in my e-mail signature, so I hope you’ll take this as constructive critique and not nit-picking. Scotland is part of the UK, so to say ‘Scotland and the UK’ is redundant, and slightly undermines your credibility, especially with the Scots, I should think. UK = England, Scotland, Wales & No. Ireland.

    Reply
    • Fixes in, Dan. Thanks for the feedback.

      Reply
    • Cate

       /  March 2, 2016

      dan, you’re absolutely correct on the nomenclature, but—–and this is not to go mischievously off-topic into politics here—I know quite several independence-minded Scots, and they don’t mind “Scotland and the UK” at all. Granted, they usually say, “rest of the UK” meaning the remainder or rump, often abbreviated to rUK😉

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  March 2, 2016

        “…quite a few….” Sigh. Repeat after me: do not post before coffee.

        Reply
      • dan combs

         /  March 2, 2016

        Cate – Being of partial Scottish heritage, I’ve no doubt you’re correct – that small r making all the difference in accuracy and inplication…

        (And Robert, thanks for the response, the fix and the gargantuan effort on the methane mess! – about which I didn’t know prior to my comment.)

        Reply
  5. Andy in SD

     /  March 2, 2016

    OT,

    I saw some discussion on the sea ice in the previous thread and the slight climb, reduction in depletion.

    On that, if one compares the daily satellite image to something like the generated result at nsidc they can see the reality of the fractured mess. If you start at the linked spot, then traverse by Alaska, the NE passage then back to the Canadian arctic you can see that the numbers are reported, but what is on the ground is not evident.

    To put this year into context, click on previous years at the linked location. The box in the middle near the top allows you to view previous dates. Compare to 2015, 2014

    http://www.arctic.io/explorer/8/2016-02-29/8-N74.09024-W131.57245

    Reply
  6. redskylite

     /  March 2, 2016

    More on the NASA and Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory study on the severity of the drought in the Levant from
    the Earth Institute, Columbia University . . .

    In the years before the Syrian conflict erupted, the region’s worst drought on record set in across the Levant, destroying crops and restricting water supplies in the already water-stressed region. A new study shows that that drought, from 1998-2012, wasn’t just the most severe in a century of record-keeping—it was the Levant’s most severe drought in at least 500 years and likely more than 900 years.

    http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2016/03/01/syrias-drought-likely-its-most-severe-in-more-than-900-years/

    Reply
  7. Greg

     /  March 2, 2016

    Dr Hansen’ s post today documents the statistical changes in temperature observed by region and season. At least one standard deviation or more in each.

    http://csas.ei.columbia.edu/2016/02/29/regional-climate-change-and-national-responsibilities/

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  March 2, 2016

      “The overall message…..we have a global emergency.” Dr. James Hansen

      Reply
    • Baker

       /  March 2, 2016

      This is crazy.
      The bell curve is calculated for daily mean temperatures of 30 seasons, right?
      It wouldn’t work with taking daily means of 30 whole years because of the seasonal cycle?

      “Bell curve shifts shown for 2005-2015 result from global warming of ~0.6°C relative to 1951-80. Thus 2°C warming […] will result in bell curve shifts and climate impacts about three times greater than those that have occurred already.”
      +3-sigma events (e.g. once a year) of 1951-80 compared to a +2°C-climatology in future decades would maybe become +6-sigma events compared to 1951-80 (once in several million events/thousands of years). The odds for winning the lottery jackpot are higher than experiencing such events compared to 1951-80. Extreme heat of 1951-80 (e.g. once in decades) would become the average highest maximum of a year.

      Reply
  8. Jeremy

     /  March 2, 2016

    Here in Dartmoor National Park in Devon, in the South West tip of England, we had rains and winds as never before seen.

    I had no idea that South Brent (the village I have moved my family back to after 20+ years in CA) was considered by many to already be the wettest place in England.

    Not so much out of the frying pan and into the fire – more like into the bathtub!

    And yes, today we are expecting storm winds of 45 mph. yet again.
    My poor American wife🙂

    Reply
    • Mblanc

       /  March 3, 2016

      Ouch, my sympathies.

      Beautiful part of the world though, when the sun does come out.

      Reply
  9. – UK Air pollution – NOX & private autos

    UK government told to take action on air pollution or face legal challenge

    ClientEarth has sent a final warning letter to environment secretary, Liz Truss, giving her 10 days to act on dirty air or face action in the high court

    The move comes after a report from the Royal College of Physicians and the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health warned an estimated 40,000 people die early each year in the UK because of air pollution.

    European rules set limits for key pollutant nitrogen dioxide (NO2) which should have been met by 2010, but ClientEarth said the plans which the government was ordered to produce by the supreme court do not see the UK meeting legal targets until 2025.

    The “air quality plan” published late last year focused on bringing in clean air zones in five English cities by 2020, in which the most polluting buses, taxis, coaches and lorries will be charged to enter the centre. But the move does not cover private cars, which ClientEarth said are one of the biggest sources of poor air quality in cities.
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/01/government-told-to-take-action-on-air-pollution-or-face-legal-challenge

    Reply
    • Mblanc

       /  March 3, 2016

      The Tories are foot-dragging massively on this, but the momentum for faster action is only going in one direction, as that recent report demonstrates.

      Reply
  10. redskylite

     /  March 2, 2016

    More disease threats in Latin America enhanced by El Nina events and a suggestion that it has a climate change fingerprint . .

    Report by the University of Bath (U.K)

    The study, published in the prestigious journal Nature Microbiology from a team of international researchers in the UK and US, explores how the arrival of new and devastating Vibrio diseases in Latin America has concurred in both time and space with significant El Niño events.

    “These events tend to occur every 3 – 7 years; something many suggest have become more regular and extreme in recent years, as a result of climate change.”

    http://www.bath.ac.uk/news/2016/03/01/el-nino-waterborne-diseases/

    Reply
  11. Cate

     /  March 2, 2016

    Concern among scientists about a huge pool of fresh water in the Arctic that might “escape” into the Atlantic via the Labrador Current and affect the Gulf Stream…. This was April 2011.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/why-build-up-of-fresh-water-in-arctic-could-spell-trouble-for-britain-2263654.html

    Reply
  12. Baker

     /  March 2, 2016

    I even discovered a reading of +11.0°C @ 41.73° N, 63.2 °W!
    The extremely warm water can’t reach the north or mix because the meltwater doesn’t sink?
    The -8.4°C-reading @ 41.24° N, 48.93 °W comes from the Labrador runoff?
    I would expect the extreme warm and cold anomalies to rise even further following summer heat… It would still spur strong lows because the atmosphere wants to balance the differences and the ocean can’t do it (density).. With south-westerlies it would be very hot in Europe, but with north-westerlies it would be cool with winds from the colder Atlantic. What could prevail in a post-El-Niño summer?

    Reply
  13. Wharf Rat

     /  March 2, 2016

    New Dataset from RSS: End of the Satellite “Pause”?

    Carl Mears and team at RSS have published a new paper describing a revision of their data for atmospheric temperature. The focus is on improving the “diurnal correction,” which is necessary because different regions of Earth are observed at different times of day. The upshot is that the lower atmosphere has warmed faster than was previously believed.

    https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/03/02/new-dataset-from-rss-end-of-the-satellite-pause/

    Reply
    • Wharf Rat

       /  March 2, 2016

      Record lower troposphere temperatures are feeling El Niño

      Sou

      According to the latest UAH temperature data, the lower troposphere is feeling the effect of El Niño, as expected. This latest month (February) the anomaly was 0.83 °C (1.5 °F) above the 1981-2010 average. Think about that. The average of 1981 to 2010 is taken as zero, and the temperature for February was 0.83 °C above that. That’s huge, even for an El Niño. This is the largest monthly anomaly in the UAH record.
      http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2016/03/record-lower-troposphere-temperatures.html#more

      Reply
  14. dnem

     /  March 2, 2016

    Robert, I think you’ll like Al Gore’s new TED Talk: Al Gore: The Case for Optimism on Climate Change. Tamino has a post devoted to it, btw.

    Reply
  15. Super Tuesday has come and gone (sigh of relief).
    Was in Minnesota and it was amazing.
    The Sanders win in Oklahoma speaks volumes. People are connecting the dots.  OK now has the most earthquakes in the world. The earth is literally giving way beneath the feet of those in OK due to greed fueled hydraulic fracturing. Sanders is the ONLY candidate who has consistently opposed (and wants to ban) fracking (http://grist.org/article/bernie-sanders-is-the-only-presidential-candidate-to-oppose-fracking/)
    Unlike Secretary Clinton:

    On another note; CO2 is still hovering around 403. When is the peak? Not looking good . . . .

    Reply
  16. Syd Bridges

     /  March 2, 2016

    Having been in England for two months, I can attest to the very wet weather. But it was obvious that the fairly minor flooding we had in Gloucestershire was peanutts compared to northern England, Scotland, and Wales. Now I’m back in Colorado, the contrast between the incredible lush greens of England and the anaemic, almost grey, greens of the grass here, is quite stunning.

    Politically, Cameron has been lucky that the rain wasn’t a couple of hundred miles further south. As there are few Tories in Scotland, he doesn’t have to worry. Had it been flooding in the Stockbroker Belt, it would have been a different matter. Then irate Tory MPs would have been asking questions as to why flood prevention programmes had been axed by the vile George Osborne. Had we seen as much rain over the south west as two years ago, I suspect the 10 million pound dredging of the Somerset Levels would have been shown up as useless.

    In the early 1980s, Mrs Thatcher and her favourite minister, Lord Young, (a property developer) changed the planning laws so that the water authorities could not object to new housing developments on flood plains. Who wouldn’t want to live in a nice new house on Longbottom Lane, Brookside Close, or Springfield Avenue? My brother told me recently of a housing estate near Portsmoth where they built, despite an old-timer warning them that there was a spring that appeared from time to time. What did he know? A year after it was occupied, the whole estate had to be abandoned.

    Reply
  17. Jeremy

     /  March 2, 2016

    “Today, the US Energy Information Administration released data on planned additions to the US power grid this year. The year is notable because it will see the first new nuclear plant brought online in 20 years, contributing 1.1 GigaWatts to the grid. But that contribution will be dwarfed by renewable power sources, which together will account for nearly two-thirds of 2016’s new capacity. And these numbers only count utility-scale solar, ignoring commercial and residential installations.”

    http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/03/no-coal-solar-wind-gas-dominate-new-us-generating-capacity-in-2016/

    Reply
  18. Greg

     /  March 2, 2016

    Fascinating insight into a capitalist mind and ability to profit no matter what* (*caveat extinction events)! Warren Buffett’s response to concerns about climate change in a proxy by The Nebraska Peace Foundation contained in new annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter (30 pages) excerpts here:

    “Last year, [Berkshire Hathaway Energy] BHE made major commitments to the future development of renewables in support of the Paris Climate Change Conference. Our fulfilling those promises will make great sense, both for the environment and for Berkshire’s economics… BHE has invested $16 billion in renewables and now owns 7 percent of the country’s wind generation and 6 percent of its solar generation. Indeed, the 4,423 megawatts of wind generation owned and operated by our regulated utilities is six times the generation of the runner-up utility. We’re not done.

    I am writing this section because we have a proxy proposal regarding climate change to consider at this year’s annual meeting. The sponsor would like us to provide a report on the dangers that this change might present to our insurance operation and explain how we are responding to these threats.

    It seems highly likely to me that climate change poses a major problem for the planet. I say ‘highly likely’ rather than ‘certain’ because I have no scientific aptitude and remember well the dire predictions of most ‘experts’ about Y2K. It would be foolish, however, for me or anyone to demand 100% proof of huge forthcoming damage to the world if that outcome seemed at all possible and if prompt action had even a small chance of thwarting the danger.

    This issue bears a similarity to Pascal’s Wager on the Existence of God. Pascal, it may be recalled, argued that if there were only a tiny probability that God truly existed, it made sense to behave as if He did because the rewards could be infinite whereas the lack of belief risked eternal misery. Likewise, if there is only a 1% chance the planet is heading toward a truly major disaster and delay means passing a point of no return, inaction now is foolhardy. Call this Noah’s Law: If an ark may be essential for survival, begin building it today, no matter how cloudless the skies appear.

    It’s understandable that the sponsor of the proxy proposal believes Berkshire is especially threatened by climate change because we are a huge insurer, covering all sorts of risks. The sponsor may worry that property losses will skyrocket because of weather changes. And such worries might, in fact, be warranted if we wrote ten- or twenty-year policies at fixed prices. But insurance policies are customarily written for one year and repriced annually to reflect changing exposures. Increased possibilities of loss translate promptly into increased premiums.

    Think back to 1951 when I first became enthused about GEICO. The company’s average loss-per-policy was then about $30 annually. Imagine your reaction if I had predicted then that in 2015 the loss costs would increase to about $1,000 per policy. Wouldn’t such skyrocketing losses prove disastrous, you might ask? Well, no.

    Over the years, inflation has caused a huge increase in the cost of repairing both the cars and the humans involved in accidents. But these increased costs have been promptly matched by increased premiums. So, paradoxically, the upward march in loss costs has made insurance companies far more valuable. If costs had remained unchanged, Berkshire would now own an auto insurer doing $600 million of business annually rather than one doing $23 billion.

    As a citizen, you may understandably find climate change keeping you up nights. As a homeowner in a low-lying area, you may wish to consider moving. But when you are thinking only as a shareholder of a major insurer, climate change should not be on your list of worries.

    Reply
  19. Colorado Bob

     /  March 2, 2016

    A scorching end to the summer has lead to New Zealand’s second warmest February on record, preliminary data from Niwa shows.

    The country’s mean temperature for the month was 19.6 degrees Celsius, second only to 1998, said Niwa forecaster Chris Brandolino.

    For Wellington it was the warmest February on record, also with a mean temperature of 19.6C, which is 2.4C above average for the capital.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/77471632/second-hottest-february-on-record-sparks-fresh-concerns-over-climate-change

    Reply
    • It sure has been a weird summer – I live at 46.6 South (often called wild temperate). “In New Zealand, the El Nno is typically associated with more southerly winds in winter, more southwesterly winds in spring and autumn, and more westerlies in summer. This results in cooler conditions nationally, and higher than average rainfall in the westem regions and drought in eastern regions.

      This pattern has been generally present in the current event. However, there are also large climatic variations arising from other natural unexplained and random causes which can swamp the “typical” pattern of El Nino in?uences. For example, the 1997-98 summer was very warm, culminating in the exceptionally warm month of February. This is not typical of El Nino summers.”

      [Report – The 1997/98 El Nino Event, Dr Reid Basher, NIWA] – report used to be online, and referenced by some govt. acts. Apparently pulled (VERY wRong wing govt here), and when I interloaned a copy I was not allowed to remove from library which was quite weird.

      The 97/98 event was, afaik, the first NZ El Nino with hot spots in it, and/droughts – I was living in Nelson at the time and we had no rain for 9 months.

      This 2015/16 EN has also had some very hot periods and a number of widespread droughts (all with very little internal media coverage), which when they end and the local climate returns to EN normal feels very cold. Also this time Western regions have had dramatically lower rainfall (or at least a serious change in distribution, with a dramatic increase in event rainfall to the point of killing people).

      Reply
  20. dnem

     /  March 2, 2016

    In response to Caroline above. Mauna Loa CO2 peaks in May. Looks to peak this year at just below 407 ppm.

    Reply
  21. Jeremy

     /  March 2, 2016

    Woof! Woof!!

    “As record-shattering temperatures in February essentially nullified winter for much of the world, Alaska is being forced to haul in tons of snow this week to accommodate the state’s famous Iditarod dogsled race.”

    http://www.commondreams.org/news/2016/03/02/goodbye-winter-february-heat-shatters-records-alaska-forced-ship-snow-iditarod

    Reply
  22. Reply
    • Anthony Sagliani ‏@anthonywx 28m28 minutes ago

      Image via @WFP_Media depicts horrific state of drought in S Africa. Stressed corn/sugarcane cut to feed animals.

      Reply
  23. – More on vulnerable Iraqi Mosul dam and an example of possible collateral catastrophe(s) in the ‘fog’ of war or political struggle.

    – Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1m people

    Iraqis who built dam say structure is increasingly precarious and describe government response as ‘ridiculous’

    They pointed out that pressure on the dam’s compromised structure was building up rapidly as winter snows melted and more water flowed into the reservoir, bringing it up to its maximum capacity, while the sluice gates normally used to relieve that pressure were jammed shut.

    The Iraqi engineers also said the failure to replace machinery or assemble a full workforce more than a year after Islamic State temporarily held the dam means that the chasms in the porous rock under the dam were getting bigger and more dangerous every day.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/02/mosul-dam-engineers-warn-it-could-fail-at-any-time-killing-1m-people?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+USA+-+Version+CB+header&utm_term=159741&subid=8553955&CMP=ema_565

    Reply
    • – Yikes, a little more:

      Nasrat Adamo, the dam’s former chief engineer who spent most of his professional career shoring it up in the face of fundamental flaws in its construction, said that the structure would only survive with round-the-clock work with teams filling in holes in the porous bedrock under the structure, a process known as grouting. But that level of maintenance, dating back to just after the dam’s construction in 1984, evaporated after the Isis occupation.

      “We used to have 300 people working 24 hours in three shifts but very few of these workers have come back. There are perhaps 30 people there now,” Adamo said in a telephone interview from Sweden, where he works as a consultant.

      “The machines for grouting have been looted. There is no cement supply. They can do nothing. It is going from bad to worse, and it is urgent. All we can do is hold our hearts.”

      At the same time as the bedrock is getting weaker and more porous, the water pressure on the dam is building as spring meltwater flows into the reservoir behind it. Giant gates that would normally be used to ease the pressure by allowing water to run through are stuck.

      Reply
  24. – Zika, not sure where this will lead but I post it as’ possible’.

    Reply
  25. redskylite

     /  March 2, 2016

    Tornadoes on the increase news from The Earth Institute, Columbia University. . . .

    A new paper shows that the average number of tornadoes per outbreak has grown by more than 40% over the last half century. The likelihood of extreme outbreaks – those with many tornadoes – is also greater.

    http://iri.columbia.edu/news/tornado-outbreaks/

    Reply
  26. Jeremy

     /  March 2, 2016

    The Donald!

    Reply
  27. Jeremy

     /  March 2, 2016

    And now, time for some light entertainment!

    Who would you vote for?!

    Reply
  28. Colorado Bob

     /  March 2, 2016

    Climate Change Will Increase the World’s Cases of Deadly Diarrhea
    E. coli, a prolific killer, is going to thrive in warmer waters.

    Just about the only creatures on Earth thriving as a result of climate change are the pests that pose major health risks to people around the world. Bacteria, in particular, are enjoying the upheaval. They’re taking advantage of the cozier climate to expand their reach and infect hundreds of thousands of additional people every year.

    In Bangladesh, where temperatures are expected to rise 0.8 degrees Celsius by 2035, a new study suggests that 800,000 additional people will suffer from E. coli-induced diarrhea. By the end of the century, with temperatures 2.1 degrees warmer than today, we can expect 2.2 million additional cases in Bangladesh

    https://www.inverse.com/article/12268-climate-change-will-incre-the-world-s-cases-of-deadly-diarrhea

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  March 2, 2016

      For every 1 degree Celsius the weather warmed, researchers found an 8 percent increase in E. coli-related diarrhea cases.

      Reply
    • Mblanc

       /  March 3, 2016

      One good thing that is happening in Bangladesh, that I do know about, is the falling birthrate. As of 2012 it is reported to be 2.2 (down from about 7 over the last 50 years!), about enough to hold the population numbers stable, in a normal country. Better healthcare and improvements in the education of girls are held to be a big part of this positive development.

      So my question is, do we think Bangladesh will be the first country to see population falls due to AGW, whether it be due to flooding, diarrhea or other CC-driven effects?

      Reply
  29. Colorado Bob

     /  March 2, 2016

    El NIño’s Long-Awaited Grand Performance Is On Its Way to California


    After a crushingly dry February, it looks as if early to mid-March is likely to bring California some of the serious moisture it needs from the 2015-16 El Niño event–and perhaps some unwanted flooding and mudslides. Long-range models are increasingly confident that the low-latitude jet stream that’s been dodging the California coast for weeks will finally plow into the state over the next 10 to 15 days, hauling copious amounts of Pacific moisture inland with it. The last few runs of the GFS and ECMWF models have become especially bullish on the development of one or two atmospheric rivers (ARs) heading into California over the next week or two. Roughly 30% to 50% of annual precipitation in the West Coast states occurs from just a few AR events per year.

    Link

    Reply
  30. Dan Borroff

     /  March 3, 2016

    Seattle had the rainiest December to end of February on record, almost 2 feet of rain. Seattle averages 3 feet of rain for the year so we’re on course to exceed that by a lot. Looks like the RRR steered all that El Nino fueled moisture our way.

    This same timeframe was also the warmest. I believe it was 5 degrees F above normal (don’t quote me on that). Flowering cherries were in bloom two weeks ago! Ordinarily they’d bloom in late March. Seattle is the northernmost big city in the lower 48. We’re north of Minneapolis, Ottowa, and Quebec City. We’ve also had a winter without snow.

    It seems as though we’re experiencing greater warming than more southerly parts of the US. Closer to the Arctic? It will be “interesting” to see if this is the beginning of a trend.

    Reply
  1. Winters Mild, Wild | astroplethorama

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: