Too Close to Dangerous Climate Thresholds — Japan Meteorological Agency Shows First Three Months of 2016 Were About 1.5 C Above the IPCC Preindustrial Baseline

We should take a moment to appreciate how hot it’s actually been so far in 2016. To think about what it means to be in a world that’s already so damn hot. To think about how far behind the 8 ball we are on responses to human forced climate change. And to consider how urgent it is to swiftly stop burning coal, oil and gas. To stop adding more fuel to an already raging global fire.

******

Global policy makers, scientists, and many environmentalists have identified an annual average of 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial marks as a level of heat we should try to avoid. The Paris Climate Summit made a verbal pledge to at least attempt to steer clear of such extreme high temperature ranges. But even the strongest emissions reduction commitments from the nations of the world now do not line up with that pledge. And it’s questionable that they ever could given the massive amount of greenhouse gas overburden that has already accumulated and is already rapidly heating the world’s airs, waters, ice, and carbon stores.

Current emission reduction pledges, though significant when taking into context the size and potential for growth of all of carbon-spewing industry, don’t even come close to the stated 1.5 C goal. Under our presently accepted understanding of climate sensitivity, and barring any response from the global carbon stores unforeseen by mainstream science, pledged reductions in fossil fuel use by the nations of the world under Paris would limit warming to around 3 C by the end of this Century. Rates of carbon emission reduction would necessarily have to significantly speed up beyond the pledged Paris NDC goals in order to hit below 3 C by 2100 — much less avoid 2 C.

As for 1.5 C above preindustrial averages — it already appears that this year, 2016, will see temperatures uncomfortably close to a level that mainstream scientists have identified as dangerous.

Global temperatures March Japan Meteorological Agency

(Japan’s Meteorological Agency shows that March of 2016 remained at global temperature levels above 1.5 C higher than the preindustrial baseline.)

The most recent warning came as the Japan Meteorological Agency today posted its March temperature values. In the measure, we again see a major jump in readings with the new March measure hitting a record of 1.07 C above the 20th Century average or about 1.55 C above temperatures last seen during the early 1890s. These temperatures compare to approximate 1.52 C above 1890s temperatures recorded by the same agency during February and a 1.35 C positive departure above 1890s levels during January. Averaging all these rough anomaly figures together, we find that the first three months of 2016 were about 1.47 C above the 1890s, or near 1.52 C above the IPCC 1850 to 1900 preindustrial baseline.

So for three months now, we’ve entered a harsh new world. One brought about by an atrocious captivity to fossil fuel burning. One that many scientists said it was imperative to avoid.

Due to the way the global climate system cycles, it is unlikely that the rest of 2016 will see such high global temperature marks and that the annual average will bend back from a near to, or slightly higher than, 1.5 C peak during early 2016. A La Nina appears to be on the way. And as the major driver of the cooler side of natural variability, La Nina taking hold should draw some of the sting out of these new record atmospheric temperature readings.

That said, overall ocean heat still looks quite extreme. Pacific Decadal Oscillation values hit their second highest ever monthly values during March of 2016. And a strongly positive PDO can tend to bleed a great amount of heat into the world’s airs even absent the influence of El Nino. In addition, Arctic warming this year has hit new record levels. Arctic sea ice is now at or near seasonal record low levels in most measures. Albedo is very low with many dark ice and open water regions forming throughout the Arctic Ocean. Snow cover levels are also low to record low — depending on the measure. Very early Greenland melt is already hampering the reflectivity of that great ice mass.

As summer advances, these factors may tend to continue to generate excess heat in Arctic or near Arctic regions as new dark surfaces absorb far more solar radiation than during a typical year. New evidence of increasing Arctic permafrost carbon store response may add to this potential additional heat contribution.

There is danger then, that an La Nina driven and natural variability related cooling later in the year may tend to lag — pulled back by a positive PDO and amplifying feedbacks in the Arctic. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels peaking between 407 and 409 parts per million during the months of March and April — the primary and increasingly dangerous driver of all this excess heat we are now experiencing — risk bending the upper end of that temperature threshold still higher and in ways that we probably haven’t yet completely pinned down. But the fact that March appears to have lingered near February’s record high anomaly values is cause for a bit of heightened concern. In other words, 2016 is setting up to be hot in ways that are surprising, freakish, and troubling.

Links:

Japan’s Meteorological Agency

Met Office — Measure From Which IPCC Preindustrial Baseline is Derived

NOAA’s Weekly ENSO Report

NSIDC’s Interactive Sea Ice Extent Graph

The Greenland Summer Melt Season Just Started in April

PDO Record Data

 

 

Leave a comment

106 Comments

  1. Thom Foote

     /  April 14, 2016

    So much for 2C as a goal for a ceiling. We do not have a chance of limiting it to that.

    Reply
    • The window of opportunity is in the process of closing. Sensitivity of global carbon stores/sinks is a determining factor here.

      Reply
      • John McCormick

         /  April 14, 2016

        Add the gradual loss of solar dimming and we blow past 2 degrees. We are stage four.

        Reply
      • In the process of closing… more like in the process of slamming shut. The PDO number is key. If we are genuinely in a ramp up to the positive phase of the PDO, then the surface air temperature is going to go aggressively for several more years. The ramp up from 1976 to 1983 was in excess of .04 ℃ per year. The ramp-phase of the PDO can accompanied by back-to-back El Nino events.

        Reply
      • DJ LX

         /  April 16, 2016

        What irks me is that when our so called leaders have summits to discuss climate change, the goals they set are far in the future – “we’re going to drop CO2 emission 80% by 2050”. That’s all well and fine. But we need major action now! We need a tax on CO2 yesterday. Instead of focusing on 2050 why don’t they set more immediately goals? Say a 3% drop in emissions in 2016. Grrrrrrrrrr! We are in a crisis situation. Our leaders, other than Bernie Sanders — who made an impassioned plea to take climate change seriously at the recent NY debate — don’t seem to realize it. Go Bernie and go Robbert.

        Reply
  2. wili

     /  April 14, 2016

    Wow. First of all, you’re on fire, robert.

    Second, wow again. A quarter of a year already above the level set as what the world should aspire to stay below, just weeks before this year began!

    Events certainly are moving faster than most of us expected. Yet there are so few places (that I have found) to keep abreast of them.

    Thanks for this wonderful service to us and to the world, robert!

    Reply
    • Thanks Wili. Wow. This means quite a lot coming from you.

      I just want to say that I owe someone a hat tip form making me aware of the March PDO values. It might have been Redsky, but I can’t currently recall.

      Reply
      • wili

         /  April 14, 2016

        There’s certainly been a lot going on recently. Hard to keep up. But you seem to mostly be on top of it all, somehow. Any chance of another main post on sea level rise, in light of the recent article from that insurance journal discussed in the previous thread? It would be interesting to hear from any posters who have insights into the mortgage, insurance, and real estate industries on what they think consequences of those kinds of predictions might be for those markets.

        Reply
        • Will see what I can do. I’ve got one more I’m working on now and then I’ll take a crack at this 10 foot by mid Century SLR study.

      • redskylite

         /  April 15, 2016

        I did mention the March PDO index value earlier, and many thanks Robert for the appreciated hat tip.

        Reply
      • Invest in wooden ships?

        (Will This Float Your Boat – 12)

        Less flood insurance costs perhaps.

        Reply
    • dnem

       /  April 14, 2016

      I sent the study to a very smart friend in the real estate industry who recently invested in Charleston, SC. I warned him about SLR vulnerability and he said he was very aware and concerned in the multi-decadal time scale but thought he would be in and out of the market there before the SHTF. I’ll report back if he responds.

      Reply
      • Steven Blaisdell

         /  April 15, 2016

        “… in and out of the market …”
        I like it. Buy low and flip it to the denialist crowd. Stupid tax.

        Reply
    • John McCormick

       /  April 15, 2016

      Wili: “Yet there are so few places (that I have found) to keep abreast of them.”

      Right on point. And, Robert keeps readers informed using posts that are accurate and understandable. Nothing comes close to his efforts.

      Reply
  3. climatehawk1

     /  April 14, 2016

    Tweet scheduled.

    Reply
  4. It’s not clear to me where the IPCC said it uses the 1850 to 1900 average as preindustrial baseline.

    Reply
  5. Cate

     /  April 14, 2016

    Could it be that in ten or twenty or fifty years, people will look back at these few months and say, “There. That’s when it happened. That’s when the Arctic went kaput. That was the big tipping point…”

    Is it possible, that we’ve done it and that we don’t see it?

    Reply
    • We can see that something sure as heck is going on. There’s a lot of indicators popping up that the Arctic is in trouble this year.

      Reply
      • How much of the heat in Japan is related to the SSTA pattern offshore that is very similar to what the New England and Canadian Maritime coasts have experienced in the last year? Just looking at the nullschool SSTA/current mapping, the visual similarities are striking, even though there’s no super cool pool coming down out of Bering Straits.

        Reply
      • Steven Blaisdell

         /  April 15, 2016

        Also, my little and repetitive insight – the equalizing/extreme low years are gone in the JMA March anomaly graph. Gone. Last one was 1976. It’s kind of a cherry pick, but if you look at the graph after 1976 it sure looks like a non-linear, progressive increase. I think for prediction the appropriate, more accurate (and steeper) long term trend line should start at 1975, almost exactly medial between the high 1973 and low 1976. That’s a 40 year cycle, more than necessary for climate trend. Given the massive changes ongoing in the system, I don’t think it’s accurate to look at trends beginning longer than 40-50 years ago.

        Reply
  6. Thank you for sharing. I appreciate the time and energy you share with us in your blog. :~)

    Reply
  7. Colorado Bob

     /  April 14, 2016

    Downpour Kills More Than 40 in Saudi Arabia, Yemen

    Heavy storms have claimed the lives of at least 42 people over the past week in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, officials in the two neighbouring states said today.

    http://www.outlookindia.com/newswire/story/downpour-kills-more-than-40-in-saudi-arabia-yemen/936834

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  April 15, 2016

      From no water to too much. Before a system changes to a new state it will experience greater extremes…

      Reply
  8. Colorado Bob

     /  April 14, 2016

    Satellite images reveal dramatic tropical glacier retreat

    Scientists use high resolution satellite imagery to provide a decadal study of ablation of equatorial glaciers in West Papua. The images taken from the Pleaides satellites reveal that the formerly extensive Carstenz Glacier of West Papua New Guinea has almost completely disappeared, while the once continuous East North Wall Firn has split into a number of much smaller fragments.

    Link

    Reply
  9. Malawi declares state of emergency over drought

    About 2.8 million Malawians face food insecurity, making country one of the worst hit in southern African drought.

    Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Mozambique, and Zambia are also suffering food supply problems, while South Africa has said that the recent drought was its worst in more than 100 years. In Zimbabwe, 2.8 million people – more than a quarter of the rural population – do not have enough to eat.

    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/04/malawi-declares-state-emergency-drought-160413144707560.html

    Reply
    • – Opinion: Climate Change and Violence

      From Syria to Kidapawan: time to look at climate change as a peace issue

      On April 1, the Philippines was shocked by violence in Kidapawan City, the capital of Cotabato Province, where police opened fire on farmers protesting and asking for rice, killing three and injuring 116.

      Eighty-seven were listed as missing in the incident, which erupted over frustrated farmers experiencing an intense drought brought on by the El Nino climate phenomenon who felt the government was doing nothing for them. The Philippines is an island nation frequently battered y weather, often typhoons. Now it is drought.
      http://www.asiasentinel.com/society/opinion-climate-change-violence-philippines-kidapawan/

      Reply
      • ‘ ….Another study by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science says that climate change doubled or even tripled the likelihood of drought that became played a significant role in the series of events that led to what Syria is now.

        “This is may be the first example of connecting emerging climate change to a modern conflict. This is not an analysis of Mesoamerica or something historical. This is happening today,” said Colin Kelley, lead author of the new study and a PACE postdoctoral fellow at University of California, Santa Barbara.’

        Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  April 15, 2016

      This is why the Pentagon and other “defense” organizations recognize that climate change is a “threat multiplier” and a very serious challenge to future security. I fear our global civilization will descend into conflict (it already has in many ways) and chaos in just a couple more decades. Food and water supplies will be severely strained with another 2 billion people by 2050. 2 billion people was the global population in the 1920s, and we’re adding that to the 7.4 billion we already have. The numbers scare the shit out of me, and it’s a primary reason I don’t plan on having children. I’m open to adoption, but I feel like the last thing I should do is create another human to feed, clothe, shelter and adorn with all the trappings of modern society. You look at the population curve and it’s clear humans are in overshoot. We are not clever enough to overcome physics and basic biology. Especially when our planetary society is organized in a capitalist economy that seeks to use as many resources as possible with no plan to preserve finite resources or live sustainably.

      Reply
  10. – Exxon Fights Subpoena in Widening Climate Probe, Citing Violation of Its Constitutional Rights

    The company has turned over more than 10,000 pages of records to the New York attorney general, but is resisting a new demand filed under anti-racketeering laws.

    ExxonMobil Corp. sued to block a subpoena issued last month by the attorney general of the U.S. Virgin Islands seeking almost 40 years of documents on climate change.

    In his demand for records, Virgin Islands Attorney General Claude Walker said Exxon may have violated the territory’s anti-racketeering law, defrauding the government and consumers with the company’s statements on climate change. It is the first time a prosecutor has cited racketeering law to probe Exxon over its longtime denial of climate change and its products’ role in it, according to legal authorities.
    http://insideclimatenews.org/news/13042016/exxon-virgin-islands-subpoena-climate-change-investigation-violates-rights-claude-walker

    Reply
    • – EXXON

      – Our history

      Over the last 125 years ExxonMobil has evolved from a regional marketer of kerosene in the U.S. to the largest publicly traded petroleum and petrochemical enterprise in the world.

      Today we operate in most of the world’s countries and are best known by our familiar brand names: Exxon, Esso and Mobil. We make the products that drive modern transportation, power cities, lubricate industry and provide petrochemical building blocks that lead to thousands of consumer goods.

      http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/company/about-us/history/overview

      Reply
    • Phil

       /  April 14, 2016

      I remember seeing a youtube video of Sanders talking in US Sensate about using these laws to go after corporate backers of climate change deniers. Looks like it might be happening.

      Reply
  11. – Beef production dwarfs the rest.

    Reply
  12. – There is a lot to be gleaned from this in-depth report, ‘Smoke and Fumes’.
    Smog is for all intents and purposes, an often lethal ‘poison gas’ — and even though such things are outlawed in warfare — anything goes for the general population.
    These are ruthless and immoral people who have been at this for a long, long time. They will stop at nothing — just as they have captured the politicians, the media, and the ‘hearts and minds’ of many of our fellow citizens.
    This what we are up against.
    Thanks to all who listen, and who contribute to Robert’s outstanding effort here.

    – Center for International Environmental Law

    1946 The Smoke and Fumes Committee

    From the very beginning of the American Petroleum Institute (API) in 1919, the oil industry recognized pollution issues, and the regulatory and liability risks they created, as an area of common concern and common interest. By the 1930s, API had focused particular attention to issues of air pollution. These issues came into sharp focus in the 1940s, as a rapidly growing Los Angeles grappled with the debilitating impacts of smog.

    In late 1946, as public concern and media scrutiny mounted, executives from the Western Oil and Gas Association met in Los Angeles to consider a response. They emerged with a plan—and a Committee. Comprised of executives from leading oil companies (including Union Oil, Standard Oil of California (both now part of Chevron), Esso (now ExxonMobil), and Shell), the newly-created Smoke and Fumes Committee would fund scientific research into smog and other air pollution issues and, significantly, use that research to inform and shape public opinion about environmental issues. The express goal of their collaboration was to use science and public skepticism to prevent environmental regulations they deemed hasty, costly, and unnecessary.

    Reply
    • – Reference point here. Find the 1946 levels of CO2 – and now you know who to thank or curse.

      Reply
      • Ryan in New England

         /  April 15, 2016

        Crimes against humanity! And every other living creature.

        Reply
      • – ” Crimes against humanity! And every other living creature.” You said it, Ryan.

        The more I contemplated this history of deception by the fossil fuel industry — the more ‘agitated’ I became throughout the day. It framed much of my emotional state of mind — and my view of a society that would tolerate such vile machinations.
        I kept asking myself (and the next fence post), “Where’s the outrage?”.
        Well, society — where is your outrage at this lethal deception?
        Who knows.
        The more I learn about how much that lead, and the many other toxic, and neurologically inhibiting, material is in the air because of fossil fuel emissions, and it’s byproducts — the more I wonder if cognitive impairment is so rampant that society is unable to protect itself — from itself.

        – Though I got no response from society, the fence post and the flowers all nodded in agreement. 🙂

        TALLY HO
        OUT

        Reply
  13. – Smoke from KS, et al. fires still a problem for other states.

    Air pollution advisory issued for parts of Minnesota
    Associated Press
    April 14, 2016

    ST. PAUL, Minn. — The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has issued an air pollution advisory for parts of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area.

    The agency says the advisory was prompted by a narrow plume of smoke form fires in Kansas and Nebraska.
    http://www.startribune.com/air-pollution-advisory-issued-for-western-minnesota/375753141/

    Reply
    • – Further west, near the Rockies, snow:

      Reply
    • – Weather Japan:
      Robert Speta ‏@robertspeta 42m42 minutes ago

      Powerful storm in Northern Japan today, winds up to 72kph in Sendai now.

      Reply
    • wili

       /  April 15, 2016

      Last year here in Minnesota, we had visible and smell-able smoke across the state from fires hundreds of miles away in Canada. This year, from hundreds of miles away in Kansas and Nebraska! What next?

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  April 15, 2016

        In Newfoundland last summer, where the air is generally very clear and the sky intensely blue right to the horizon line, we smelled the smoke from the wildfires in Quebec a thousand miles away. The whole sky was obscured by that coppery veil of smoke.

        Reply
      • – wili, what I’ve noticed, is the direction of the air flow in this. Previously most smoke and air flow has been more or less from NW to E or SE. Now I see more SW to NE patterns. This would include the recent moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico and hitting TX et al, and stretching up into Appalachia regions.
        Then, there is the northward flow from the equator up to Greenland, et al.
        A switch of direction.

        Reply
  14. Reblogged this at Fin des Voies Rapides. Phew, it’s very hard to keep up wit’ youse, ‘specially when my available computer time is absorbed by other things for me to do!

    But you were away for a long time, glad you’re back!🙂

    Reply
  15. Cate

     /  April 14, 2016

    Meanwhile, back at the GIS: an interesting piece on the mechanics of hydro-fracturing, how surface meltwater that pools and flows atop the ice sheet can contribute to the destruction of the ice-sheet. The water basically forces cracks to widen and open, sometimes so abruptly that all the water is sucked down to the ground below the ice-sheet, thus lubricating it and further contributing to the sheet’s instability. Nice.

    PS There’s an adventure tourism company in Greenland that offers kayaking in the melt lakes and streams. Don’t go there. Don’t do that.😉

    https://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/scientists-find-trigger-that-cracks-lakes

    Reply
  16. Phil

     /  April 14, 2016

    Very interesting situation with the PDO. Will be very interesting to see if it remains in positive territory over the remainder of the year. If so, that would tend to confirm a switch to warmer phase

    If it remains in positive territory, then the next issue will be whether Trenberth’s step change
    in temperature begins to emerge as well although that is probably decadal is scope.

    This year is becoming a bell weather year on so many fronts.

    Reply
  17. Andy in SD

     /  April 14, 2016

    It does appear we are switching to a La Nina phase, which is beneficial to Atlantic hurricanes, or does not dampen them. Either way, La Nina years show a higher occurrence of Atlantic hurricanes.

    We may see what such a season holds in store as we see a La Nina super imposed on increased ocean heat. It is new territory for humans within our recorded time scale for the region.

    Reply
  18. Jay M

     /  April 15, 2016

    Looks like PNW gets one day high temp (88F?) then lower
    good rain today almost tax day

    Reply
  19. After the previous El Ninos, there was more Arctic ice to reflect heat out, less open water in the Arctic to absorb heat, and less moisture in the Arctic atmosphere to trap heat. In short, I doubt if the Arctic cooling processes will radiate heat from the current El Nino as effectively as they radiated/reflected heat after the previous El Nino events. Rather the heat from the current event will go to melting permafrost, sea ice, glaciers, and ice sheets.

    I think measures of sea level will be interesting and instructive over the next couple of years. And by that, I mean that it will be exactly like the mid-term exams in school where one finds out, just how much one has learned in comparison to the expectations of the professor. Except, this is a very long course with Mother Nature herself grading all efforts. Her expectations are so high that she tends to flunk 99.9% of species.

    One might say that Mother Nature grades on a curve, and we are in competition with – cockroaches. They have taken, and passed the class many times. We need to be smart and proactive. This would be true even in the absence of AGW. However, AGW is a strong clue that we are at the bottom of our class, rather than at the top.

    Reply
    • Interesting comments. I think also many are expecting a big drop in OHC, and I will not be surprised if the drop is either very small or perhaps no drop at all or, perhaps, even a net gain in OHC over the El Nino event.

      Reply
    • Is that cockroaches, or Kochroaches? Just checking.😉

      Reply
      • Abel Adamski

         /  April 15, 2016

        Kochroaches, I like that most apt term as they leave their droppings over the comments sections and infest the halls of government at all levels.
        Where’s the Mortein
        You have coined an exquisite descriptive label

        Reply
  20. – Marine life – Interesting red crab ‘swarms’ off Panama,usually seen in shallower water now in deeper water – El Nino and/or warm water seems to play a part.

    ‘“It was quite unexpected,” says Pineda, “I didn’t know that these swarms existed.”

    The crabs were later identified as Pleuroncodes planipes through DNA tests of a few specimens collected from the swarm. The species is abundant off the coast of Baja California and had washed up by the thousands on beaches further north in San Diego around the same time, due to waters warmed by El Niño.

    “We have known that populations of these crabs can explode following periods of warmer temperatures,” says Nathaniel Evans of the Florida Museum of Natural History in Gainesville. “But we hadn’t observed what is going on in deeper habitats.”

    The crabs are known to retreat to deep water low in oxygen, similar to the conditions at Hannibal, possibly to avoid predators. But they have never been documented this far south.’

    Reply
  21. – nA USA – Latest fracking report:

    Fracking’s Total Environmental Impact Is Staggering, Report Finds

    The body of evidence is growing that fracking is not only bad for the global climate, it is also dangerous for local communities.

    And affected communities are growing in number. A new report, released Thursday, details the sheer amount of water contamination, air pollution, climate impacts, and chemical use in fracking in the United States.

    “For the past decade, fracking has been a nightmare for our drinking water, our open spaces, and our climate,” Rachel Richardson, a co-author of the paper from Environment America, told ThinkProgress.
    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/04/14/3768993/environment-america-fracking-report/

    Reply
  22. – EU – FR – Both concerns are from the same source: FF.

    Air pollution and climate change top French environmental concerns

    The French General Commission on Sustainable Development (CGDD) has published its annual study on France’s environmental concerns. Air quality has become a more prominent issue than ever before. EurActiv’s partner Journal de l’Environnement reports.

    French citizens ranked air quality as their second most pressing environmental concern in 2015. Never before has the issue been so prominent in the annual CGDD report on the environmental opinions and practices of the French population.
    http://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/air-pollution-and-climate-change-top-french-environmental-concerns/

    Reply
  23. – AU – SLR

    Climate change: website reveals which homes will be swamped by rising sea levels

    Coastal Risk Australia combines Google Maps with detailed tide and elevation data, as well as future sea level rise projections

    For the first time, Australians can see on a map how rising sea levels will affect their house just by typing their address into a website. And they’ll soon be able to get an estimate of how much climate change will affect their property prices and insurance premiums, too.

    Launched on Friday, the website Coastal Risk Australia takes Google Maps and combines it with detailed tide and elevation data, as well as future sea level rise projections, allowing users to see whether their house or suburb will be inundated.
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/15/climate-change-website-reveals-which-homes-will-be-swamped-by-rising-sea-levels

    Reply
    • Cate

       /  April 15, 2016

      That site is almost breaking the internet in Oz today. It sounds like a good thing at first glance, but I must confess that my inner cynic kicks in whenever I see the word “insurance”. So my jury is still out on the usefulness of this very flashy and impressive tool until I have answers to the usual basic questions of critical thinking: Who paid for this? Why and to what end? Who will gain advantage from this information and how? Who will be disadvantaged by this information and how?

      Reply
      • Abel Adamski

         /  April 15, 2016

        It is a promo really for the company involved who is raising capital. However it is achieving massive interest and coverage in all the Oz media.
        Ringing some bells

        Reply
      • Cate

         /  April 15, 2016

        Thank you, Abel. I read something today to the effect that there is no room for politics in this crisis humanity is facing. I would also suggest that there is no room for profiteering, for the cynical manipulation of fear or greed in the name of making a profit out of this crisis. I think we will all need to be vigilant on this score going forward as more and more schemes and projects like this begin to surface.

        We must interrogate every response to make sure it is win-win for humanity and the planet as a whole, and not win for some, lose for all the rest.

        We’ve had enough of that. That’s what brought us to this pretty pass.

        Reply
  24. – NA – USA – CA – SLR – water delivery system in jeopardy.

    California homeowners will know the feeling. You shell out a huge amount of money for a place, and then suddenly you find yourself “underwater” — owing more than the property’s worth.

    But it isn’t just that metaphorical fiscal water Jerry Brown’s California Water Fix project may find itself under. The at-least-$17-billion public works project, intended to divert Sacramento River water around the Delta to the giant pumps that send that water south to farms and cities, may well find its proposed tunnel intakes under three or four feet of seawater by the end of the century.
    https://www.kcet.org/redefine/new-sea-level-rise-study-calls-delta-tunnels-into-doubt

    Reply
    • – Don’t know if this study has been linked to:

      – Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise

      Abstract
      Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, been slightly warmer than today, yet global mean sea level has been 6–9 metres higher as recently as the Last Interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) and possibly higher during the Pliocene epoch (about three million years ago). In both cases the Antarctic ice sheet has been implicated as the primary contributor, hinting at its future vulnerability. Here we use a model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics—including previously underappreciated processes linking atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs—that is calibrated against Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied to future greenhouse gas emission scenarios…
      http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v531/n7596/full/nature17145.html

      Reply
  25. Abel Adamski

     /  April 15, 2016

    This worlds economy and the deception campaigns are all about the Dollars
    From Harvard Business review
    https://hbr.org/2016/04/the-data-says-climate-change-could-cost-investors-trillions

    The Data Says Climate Change Could Cost Investors Trillions

    An important new study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, says that climate change will be expensive. Extremely expensive. It turns out that if you mess with the planet’s thermostat, it’s not great for the economy or investments. Forget the polar bears; your pension and retirement funds are in trouble.

    It’s not the first time economists have warned us about the costs of a changing climate. Some past studies on climate economics, like the famous Stern Report a decade ago, assessed the macro-level risk to GDP as a whole. Others have drilled down to explore what worldwide action to control carbon would mean for fossil fuel investments specifically. But this new report, by estimating the risk to all financial assets and portfolios, finds a powerful middle ground that should get investor attention.

    If we stay on the current emissions path, the study predicts, the value at risk in global portfolios could range from about $2 trillion to $25 trillion. In a bit of understatement, Simon Dietz of the London School of Economics, the lead author of the report, told The Guardian, “long-term investors…would be better off in a low-carbon world.”

    Estimates of climate risk in the trillions are unfortunately getting more common. Last year, Citi produced a powerful study of the costs and benefits of shifting the energy system toward low-carbon technologies. Unchecked climate change, Citi said, could cost the world $72 trillion by the middle of the century. But the big surprise in Citi’s report was the cost of building the low-carbon economy: the world can spend $2 trillion less in total on energy infrastructure and ongoing fuel costs than it would in the business-as-usual scenario. So we save $2 trillion and avoid losing up to $72 trillion in economic activity.

    DUUUHHHH

    Reply
  26. webej

     /  April 15, 2016

    Trillions of dollars? Can anybody to a quick back of the envelope calculation on how much it would cost to acquire a new habitat for 90% of humanity?

    Reply
  27. Jeremy

     /  April 15, 2016

    “Goodrich Petroleum Corp., the latest casualty of the energy slump, sought bankruptcy protection with a plan to eliminate about $400 million of debt.”

    “Since the start of 2015, about 50 oil and gas producers have gone bankrupt, owing more than $17 billion, according to law firm Haynes & Boone LLP. Goodrich joins shale-focused companies such as Magnum Hunter Resources Corp., which filed for creditor protection in December.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-15/goodrich-petroleum-files-for-chapter-11-for-restructuring

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  April 15, 2016

      It will take decades to follow the money trails these actions will expose

      Reply
  28. Greg

     /  April 15, 2016

    Greed enters the renewable space. Bring it on. This will be one of the largest wind projects in the world, a 2 gigawatt project of Warren Buffett, and make Iowa a true leader in wind energy. Note that if it goes ahead this fall, the wind farm could be completed as early as 2017 or 2018. These projects are fast.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/warren-buffet-wind-energy-farm-iowa_us_570ff429e4b0018f9cb96e8e

    Reply
  29. Colorado Bob

     /  April 15, 2016

    £500,000 tree-planting project helped Yorkshire town miss winter floods

    Tree planting and other natural approaches have prevented flooding at Pickering in North Yorkshire over Christmas, at a time when heavy rainfall caused devastating flooding across the region.

    An analysis of the Slowing the Flow scheme published on Wednesday concludes that the measures reduced peak river flow by 15-20% at a time when 50mm of rain fell on sodden ground in 36 hours. The scheme was set up in 2009 after the town had suffered four serious floods in 10 years, with the flooding in 2007 estimated to have caused about £7m of damage.

    The work included planting 40,000 trees, 300 “leaky” dams and the restoration of heather moorland, all intended to slow the flow of water into the river and reduce its peak height. A new flood storage area was also set aside in fields near Newtondale. The project cost the government £500,000, significantly less than a proposed flood wall in the town.

    Link

    Reply
  30. Abel Adamski

     /  April 15, 2016

    http://phys.org/news/2016-04-ancient-volcanoes-key-impact-climate.html

    CAMP’s appearance was a cataclysm on its own.

    “If that much material erupted today, it would cover the contiguous United States with about 400 meters of lava—it was an enormous series of eruptions,” Corsetti said.

    But the reason CAMP is suspected of being the culprit in the mass extinction has to do with carbon dioxide—the gas that climate change experts now worry is being released into the atmosphere in rapid and massive quantities.

    “By some estimates, it rose nearly as rapidly as we’re putting CO2 into the atmosphere today,” Corsetti said. “We wanted to see how the Earth system responded from a rapid rise of CO2. The spoiler alert is that there was a mass extinction. What we’ve been able to do is use this mercury as a fingerprint to tie the event to the volcanos, and therefore the emissions.”

    The Triassic-Jurassic extinction is particularly pertinent because it was selective, Corsetti said. It preferentially affected coral reefs and animals most similar to the ones common in today’s oceans. An earlier and more severe event, the Permian extinction—sometimes called “the mother of all extinctions”—was even bigger, but the dominant organisms affected were different from the ones common today.

    That makes the Triassic-Jurassic event perhaps the most relevant mass extinction to study when trying to predict what might happen with rising CO2 levels, Corsetti said.

    Reply
  31. Greg

     /  April 15, 2016

    The Plains is facing serious flooding, beginning today, from the Omega Block, another stalled system due to the meandering Jet stream. It could approach all-time monthly records for April:
    https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/plains-heavy-rain-flood-threat-severe-mid-april-2016

    Reply
  32. Ailsa

     /  April 15, 2016

    Good to see this in mainstream UK press:

    ‘Greenland’s ice sheet is melting alarmingly early this year –

    Greenland’s giant ice sheet began melting so early this year that scientists thought they had made a mistake.

    But further tests confirmed an unprecedented early start in the annual cycle of ice melting in the warmer seasons and re-freezing when the weather cools… As a result of these unusual weather patterns the temperature in Greenland’s capital of Nuuk soared to 16.6 C earlier this week, smashing the previous record for April by 6.5C.’

    https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/environment/greenlands-ice-sheet-is-melting/

    Reply
  33. Ailsa

     /  April 15, 2016

    And a piece of local anecdotal info from here in Devon UK, a neighbor of mine tells me that the birds are eating much more from her birdfeeder this year than in previous years – they are ‘ravenous’ she said. We thought maybe its because they have had early chicks, but there aren’t enough bugs for them yet? Just a guess, but something is out of whack (she is an elderly lady who has been feeding them for many years).

    Reply
    • Ailsa

       /  April 15, 2016

      A piece of good news:

      Bees, neonics and Devon County Council –

      Following a campaign by Friends of the Earth, Buglife and the Devon Wildlife Trust, Devon County Council councillors have voted to ban the use of neonicotinoid (neonics) insecticides on land they control.

      https://adriancolston.wordpress.com/

      Reply
  34. Colorado Bob

     /  April 15, 2016

    Unprecedented rainfalls cause flood in 11 provinces

    ”TEHRAN — 11 provinces in Iran have been struck by flood due to unprecedented rainfalls over the past days.

    Drastic addition of water to the rivers after years of drought and water scarcity have resulted in overflow of the rivers in different provinces, Alireza Da’emi, deputy energy minister for planning, said on Thursday………………. The deputy governor general of Khuzestan province, Ahmad Sayyahi, also said that over the past 72 hours 120 millimeters of rain has fallen and “we had to let 5,000 cubic meters of water out of Dez dam.

    Link

    Reply
  35. Colorado Bob

     /  April 15, 2016

    Epic area coverage –

    Reply
  36. I have, in the past, questioned or been a bit uncertain about the science of “abrupt” climate change…Not sure if some of those promoting it were maybe just a little too much into “doom porn”. However, the past year or so has had me reevaluating…and the past few months with all the evidence of what is going on with the ice in the arctic and antarctic and the temperature records being broken month after month…has really got the hair on the back of my neck standing straight up. I don’t mean to sound panicky…but boy oh boy…is it just me or are things just accelerating way faster than most experts ever believed possible?

    Reply
    • Cate

       /  April 15, 2016

      Suzanne, I’m much of a mind as yourself. It’s why I asked above, could it be that we have passed, or are passing, some sort of tipping point? It certainly feels….different, in the way that so much information from all over the planet seems to all be pointing in the same way now, and very insistently. Maybe it’s just that the data-collection, modelling, and analysis have improved so much, but something exponential is in the air.

      Reply
      • Agree…There are days where I have to take a breather from all the Climate Change news..because there is just so much…and most not good at all. It can be depleting.

        Reply
      • Cate

         /  April 15, 2016

        Suzanne, yes, it’s essential to take regular steps back and count blessings.

        One unexpected upside of all the dire climate news, I’ve found, is that it dwarfs all other news by comparison. It really is the only thing we should be talking about.

        The Canadian military historian, Gwynne Dyer, at the end of a discussion about the threat of Islamic fundamentalism to the West, was asked if ISIS scared him sh!tless. He replied, that no, the only thing that scares him sh!tless is climate change.😀

        Kinda puts it all perspective, I guess.

        Reply
      • Cate…Gwynne Dyer is spot on. I find most people are so distracted by inane things, that they are completely missing the most important issue happening right in front of them…global warming. It just boggles my mind.

        Reply
  37. – Follow up to earlier ‘Japan Weather and E-Quake’:
    Also, panic at real, or perceived, weather/climate/geologic threats will play a part in the functioning of societies — whether in denial or not.

    – Japan earthquake: tens of thousands flee in fear of aftershocks and volcanoes

    At least 44,000 people evacuated following 6.4-magnitude quake that killed at least nine

    Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated from earthquake-hit southern Japan as dozens of aftershocks struck and officials monitored nearby volcanoes for signs of activity.

    There are also concerns about volcanic activity in the wake of the quake. The island of Kyushu, where the earthquake happened, is a highly volcanic area. A level 2 warning – meaning people should not approach a volcano’s crater – has been in place for Asosan in Kumamoto prefecture on the island since November 2015.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/15/japan-earthquake-thousands-evacuated-volcanoes-aftershocks?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+USA+-+Version+CB+header&utm_term=167324&subid=8553955&CMP=ema_565

    Reply
  38. – Relevant to Robert’s earlier post on India heat etc.
    – It may be best to download small image and view in your own jpg viewer. Most dates here are of June.

    Reply
  39. LAM78

     /  April 15, 2016

    Mr. Scribbler, NASA GISS have now reported that March was +1,28C warmer than 1951-1980 period. And that means that we now have had two months in a row with temp anomalies above +1,5C from pre-industrial values!

    Good to see that you are back Mr S! Have a nice day!

    Reply
  40. Colorado Bob

     /  April 15, 2016

    Central U.S. Dousing on Tap; Heavy Spring Snow in CO, WY
    By: Bob Henson

    Soon to be abandoned by the jet stream, a strong upper-level low will park near the Four Corners this weekend, pulling in a rich moisture feed from Texas to Nebraska that will dump near-record April rain on the High Plains and tree-challenging wet snow along the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range. The upper low will be marooned for several days near Colorado, which will prolong the precipitation event and lead to some truly impressive totals.

    https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3283#commenttop

    Reply
  41. Colorado Bob

     /  April 15, 2016

    We Just Crushed The Global Record For Hottest Start Of Any Year

    NASA reports that this was the hottest three-month start (January to March) of any year on record. It beat the previous record — just set in 2015 — by a stunning 0.7°F (0.39°C). Normally, such multi-month records are measured in the hundredths of a degree

    Last month was the hottest February on record by far. It followed the hottest January on record by far, which followed the hottest December by far, which followed the hottest November on record by far, which followed the hottest October on record by far. Some may detect a pattern here.

    We reported two weeks ago that “Last Month Was The Hottest March In The Global Satellite Record.” It was also the hottest March on record — by far — in the dataset of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), as the World Meteorological Organization tweeted Thursday.

    Link

    Reply
  42. Colorado Bob

     /  April 15, 2016

    NASA smacks down climate change doubters in Facebook discussion

    In many online forums involving climate change science, the discussions are frequently hijacked by doubters making the same tired, debunked arguments. On Tuesday, NASA was having none of it.

    When doubters began polluting a thread started by Bill Nye “The Science Guy” about his rejected attempt to place a bet about global warming, the Facebook account “NASA Climate Change” decided to pounce.

    Link

    Reply
    • Thank goodness these guys are stepping in. It’s a public service taking on the deniers. Anyone who does it at this time is promoting the public welfare.

      Reply
  43. More weird weather here.

    I like these videos, especially the music. I don’t like the tragedies, though.😦

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: