Polar Heatwave Digs in as Arctic Sea Ice Crashes — Blue Ocean Event Looking More and More Likely

We’ve never seen May heat like what’s being predicted in the Arctic over the next seven days. A shot of warm airs blowing northward over Siberia that are expected to generate a warm front that takes in nearly the entire Arctic Ocean. A weather pattern that, if it emerges, will completely compromise the central region of polar cold that has traditionally driven Northern Hemisphere weather patterns.

*****

This week, a huge pulse of warm air rose up over Northwest Canada and Alaska. Invading the Beaufort, it drove a broad warm front which forced near or above freezing temperatures over between 1/4 to 1/3 of the Arctic Ocean zone. Regions from the East Siberian Sea, through the Chukchi, into the Beaufort, and including a chunk of the polar zone above the 80th parallel all experienced these anomalously warm readings. By Friday, air temperature anomalies in the entire Arctic zone above 66 North were about 3 C above average and in a large section of the hot zone centered on the Beaufort temperatures ranged between 10-15 C above average. For the Arctic, it appeared that June had arrived a month early.

Arctic sea ice May 12 2016

(Abundant Arctic snow and sea ice melt on May 12 provides a visible record of a region compromised by the heat of human-forced climate change. Large land regions — such as Northwest Canada and Alaska — snow free when they should not be. And larger regions of open water appear in the zones that were traditionally covered by sea ice. A bluing over the Chukchi and Beaufort is also indicative of melt pond proliferation. Summer, it appears, has come to the Arctic far too early. Image source: LANCE-MODIS.)

The effect of all this heat — just the latest hot flare during a record warm 2016 — on the sea ice has been tremendous. Huge areas of dark, ice-free water have opened up. The Bering is practically ice free. The Chukchi is plagued with thin ice, large polynyas, and melt ponds. Baffin Bay and the Barents are greatly reduced. And in the Beaufort a massive 120 to 200 mile wide region of open water continues to expand.

For Arctic Sea Ice Melt, Mid Summer is Happening in May

Pretty much all the major monitors now show Arctic sea ice plummeting deep into record low ranges. The JAXA extent measure yesterday rocketed past the 11.5 million square kilometer mark with barely a blink following multiple days of 100,000 square kilometer losses. DMI looks like the bottom dropped out of its own extent and volume measures. And NSIDC shows Arctic sea ice extent levels widening the gap from previous record lows for this time of year.

Arctic sea ice extent jaxa

(2016 Actic sea ice — indicated by the red line in the JAXA monitor above — continues its record plunge. Record Arctic heat during 2016 has driven a never-before-seen rate of melt for the first four and a half months of this year. If such melt rates continue, there will be very little sea ice left by melt season end in September. Image source: JAXA.)

Overall, not only is the sea ice less extensive and thinner than it has ever been for this time of year, but the rates of loss it is now experiencing are more similar to those that would typically be seen during June and July — not May. In such a context of record heat and melt, current new sea ice extent lows are about 9-10 days ahead of the previous record low, 22-24 days ahead of the 2000s average line, more than a month ahead of the 1990s average line, and fully a month and a half ahead of the 1980s average line. In other words, there is something seriously, seriously wrong with the polar region of our world.

Freakish Warm Front To Cross From Siberia to the Barents

As bad as the current situation is, the coming week looks like it’s setting up to be far worse. A second massive polar warm front is in the process of bulging northward from the region of Eastern Siberia near the East Siberian Sea. This warm front — driven on by an anomalous ridge in the Jet Stream and backed by warm winds flooding up from the East Asian heatwave and wildfire zone — is predicted to bow outward over the coming five days. It is expected to encompass all of the East Siberian Sea and the Laptev, traverse the 80th parallel, continue on past the North Pole, and then flood out into the Barents. Essentially, it’s a warm front that will cross the polar zone in total — completely ignoring the laws of Jet Stream dynamics and basically rupturing what is traditionally an area of cold centering on the Pole.

image

(Warm winds are predicted to be pulled up from Siberia as a high pressure system churns over the Beaufort and a warm front crosses the North Pole — flushing below freezing temperature out of a majority of the Arctic Ocean Basin on May 16th in the GFS model forecast. Note the very large extent of predicted above freezing temperatures in the graphic above. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

In four years of unbroken Arctic observation and threat analysis related to human-caused climate change, I’ve never seen anything like this. And given the odd effects of fossil fuel emissions-forced climate change, I’ve definitely observed some pretty weird stuff. To say this really kinda takes the cake for Arctic weirdness would be an understatement.

Never-Before Seen Conditions Consistent With Human-Forced Climate Change

By May 20, most of the Arctic Ocean is predicted to see near-freezing or above-freezing temperatures. Readings warm enough to promote surface melt of the ice pretty much everywhere and across all basins. Readings that for the entire Arctic region above 66 North are predicted to be 5 C above average. That is one hell of an anomaly. Something that would be odd if we saw it during January (when climate change related seasonal warming has typically taken greater hold). But for May this is absolutely outlandishly hot.

May 20 Crazy Polar anomaly

(Temperatures in the Arctic are expected to hit a +5.04 C anomaly by May 20. Such an amazing amount of heat will generate rapid thaw conditions that were typically only experienced in the middle of summer during previous record warm years. Image source: Climate Reanalyzer.)

These are conditions that even during the previously record warm period of the 2000s normally didn’t take come into play until late June or early July. Conditions that were practically unheard of for any single day at the peak of summer warmth during the 1980s. Conditions now predicted to happen in late May.

This is climate change, folks. Pure and simple. And if such a pattern of extreme heat continues, it may wipe out practically all the ice by the end of this melt season. This week, it looks like that dreaded event will grow still more likely if this predicted insane heat break-out into the Arctic emerges. An event many scientists thought wouldn’t be possible until the 2070s or 2080s as little as ten years ago. A Blue Ocean Event that is now a very real risk for 2016.

Links:

LANCE-MODIS

JAXA

Earth Nullschool

Climate Reanalyzer

Arctic Sea Ice Graphs

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288 Comments

  1. JPL

     /  May 13, 2016

    That is a crazy Arctic heat wave predicated for next week!

    Meanwhile, back in the asylum:
    Trump taps climate change skeptic, fracking advocate as key energy advisor

    Come on, America! Get it together!

    Reply
    • JPL

       /  May 13, 2016

      *predicted

      Reply
    • Insane asylum is right. But what could we expect? This wind-killing, delusional bully to actually do something that supports the efforts of science or the prospects of the human race?

      I was listening to the radio last night to Paul Ryan droning on about making peace with Trump and how four more years of a democrat in the white house would be a ‘disaster for America.’

      If Trump comes in, things will be worse than during Bush. Anti-science, zenophobia, mass government attempts to revive coal, to kill renewables, to suppress science, to take down the EPA, to prop up oil and gas. Not to mention a total lack of regulation in the financial markets setting us up for another economic crash. And don’t get me started about the war mongering.

      From a historical perspective, Trump looks to me like a fossil fueled Musollini whose overall lasting impact has the potential to be far worse. And Ryan’s republican legislature has already been a walking, talking disaster. Of course these guys have no shame or credibility for that matter. They will just say anything. Anyone who supports the witch hunting of scientists has pretty much already lost all integrity or credibility anyway.

      Reply
      • “Paul Ryan droning on” —–Robert, I was listening to the same thing and had the same reaction. “Fossil fueled Musollini” to describe Trump—scarily, that seems to be an apt description.

        The combination of Trump and Ryan (et al) would be devastating. Unlike Cruz, many repubs find Ryan appealing. Thinking about this makes me nauseous. Don’t think Ryan has changed much since this was written:
        http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/11/677051/meet-paul-ryan-climate-denier-conspiracy-theorist-koch-acolyte/

        Reply
      • Change “will be” below to “would be” —-yikes! (like others, wish there was an edit button!!)

        Reply
        • I wish I could add an edit button for you guys. Not in the current functionality.

          Couldn’t agree with you more on Ryan. He’s verbatim a Koch parrot. What kills me about this guy is the way he will just calmly put out misinformation and falsehoods as if its the gods-honest-truth. I think you need to go to some kind of education camp to be able to keep such a straight face and tell a blatant falsehood like that. But Ryan and republicans have perfected this over the years.

        • I agree. He is as much of a liar as Trump, which is quite an achievement, in its own way.

      • Steven Blaisdell

         /  May 14, 2016

        “…fossil fueled Musollini …’
        Bingo. I’m going to borrow this, and spread it far and wide. I didn’t think so at first, but it’s become clear that with Trump we’re looking at Blackshirt territory, without a doubt.

        Reply
      • Bill H

         /  May 14, 2016

        Robert, I don’t think there’s any special skill in telling falsehoods on Ryan’s part: he simply isn’t aware what he’s saying is false. As Freud put it: unconscious repression.

        Reply
    • Bill H

       /  May 14, 2016

      Hmm, this is one of the, er, experts with whom the Donald said he would “surround” himself.

      Reply
    • JPL

       /  May 13, 2016

      Hmmm… that didn’t post right. Lets try that again:

      Reply
      • That 2045 projection from 2012 could be what this year looks like if the current rate of melt continues as it is now.

        Reply
      • marcel_g

         /  May 13, 2016

        Yeah, a lot of commenters on the ASIF are expecting that 2045 prediction to happen if not this year then within the next few years. We could still have a cold month to slow things down, but the amount of preconditioning on top of already weakened ice sure isn’t looking good.

        Reply
    • Loni

       /  May 14, 2016

      If Trump is elected President, Netanyahu becomes the de facto President of the United States of America. (connect the dots)

      Reply
  2. dnem

     /  May 13, 2016

    Every morning as I look at the latest numbers from JAXA and NSIDC and troll thru Neven’s blog and the other blogs on the Sea Ice Forum (and of course RS!) the feeling that this summer will be a watershed event for the arctic only grows.

    Will the world take notice?

    Reply
    • I think the broader media response to the Fort McMurray Fire provides us with the answer to that question.

      In short, some responsible sources like the Guardian will say the right thing. Other sources, like the New York Times and the Washington Post will get it mostly right, but not cover it enough. BBC might or might not get it right depending on which BBC is covering the news for that particular day. There might be a one hour special on PBS or NPR. The climate blogsphere will go nuts, and this will draw more attention from people who are starting to wake up. The mainstream TV news sources might make a five second mention of it on the nightly news. Any paper from a fossil fuel dominated region like Canada or owned by a monied special interest like Murdoch will say that we shouldn’t talk about climate change — promoting their denial stance ad infinity.

      The net effect is that there will be a small splash that will raise some awareness but that will not generate the kind of huge shift in public opinion that is necessary. The word of the event will not get to most ears because the larger media will not do its job in keeping the public informed on key events that are related to its safety. As such, we will remain in the underground as those who provide information on a globally emerging crisis. That said, due to the accuracy of the reports the climate media does provide, there will be a continuation of the slow shift in public opinion.

      Media sources aligned with fossil fuels will try to paint those of us providing this information and calling for action as irresponsible — attempting to sew doubt through a kind of subtle ad hominem attack. Just as we saw with the Fort McMurray coverage where those of us who are actually trying to help people and the living creatures of this world by raising awareness were labeled unhelpful troublemakers.

      But what is really unhelpful is media sources and politicians who act as accessories to climate crimes perpetrated by fossil fuel special interests by providing a cover-up of the damages that these interests are causing.

      So that’s the state of play — cover-up and climate media suppression by fossil-fuel related politicians and media who are aiding and abetting a global ecocide and civilization collapse combined.

      I sincerely hope that this is not how it works out. But it’s what I’ve seen happen time and again. The responsible sources report, the irresponsible sources do not, and there’s a range of muted and semi-muted reports across a spectrum in between. This state of play in the media generates no clear imperative to act when events do happen and its a big part of the current problem of lack of awareness and a failure to respond in a manner adequate to the problem.

      Reply
      • Josh

         /  May 13, 2016

        It feels to me like that lack of awareness is what is currently threatening to doom us all (well, aside from the actual burning of fossil fuels).

        If everyone knew how much they stand to lose from all of this there would be much less of a problem. People would be in the streets, people would be cancelling unnecessary long-haul flights, etc. Demanding change.

        I wonder what the best way to counter it is. Sometimes I feel like I should be screaming from the rooftops, but being labelled as a madman might be counterproductive.

        Reply
        • Political action, protest action. Join 350.org, the Sierra Club, etc. Help with divestment campaigns. Stump for your local politician who is strongly pro climate action, pro government policy based climate action, anti-denial. Join a community organization that is pushing your community to go fossil fuel free. Get a solar roof and an EV. Use a bike for transport. Go vegan. Get more people involved in group action. Campaign for renewable energy access. Campaign against coal, gas, oil and fracking. There are so many ways to get involved. Individual effort is great, but group/political effort is the most effective of all.

      • Josh

         /  May 13, 2016

        You’re right of course, it just feels hard to make an impact – but that’s obviously no excuse. For the first time in my life, I attended a climate march in London recently which I found through 350.org. I now need to treat that very much as the start of something, not the end.

        This blog has been a great wake-up call for me so thank you!

        Reply
      • Greg

         /  May 14, 2016

        And take Robert’s words above and write a letter to your local paper editor. It just might get published!

        Reply
    • Kalypso

       /  May 13, 2016

      Should a blue Arctic Ocean event occur this year the world will have to take notice. This could cause a massive transformation of the Earth’s climate and if I’m not mistaken a sea ice free Arctic is one of the tipping points of climate change. My guess would be that the blocking high pressure pattern that has been linked to an increasingly ice free Arctic Ocean would become far more pronounced. In 2012, during the lowest Arctic sea ice extent on record, a wobbly jet stream is theorized to be part of the reason Sandy made a hook into the coast of New Jersey. I wonder, given a La Niña and a potential record breaking low Arctic sea ice extent-possibly a blue ocean event-could the northeast be at heightened risk for another ‘frankenstorm’?

      Reply
      • Good question, Kalypso. We’d have to look at the North Atlantic trends through summer to get a better picture of risks for such an event. But the general issues regarding a weak Jet Stream and strong ridge/trough formation together with unprecedented meridional flows remain.

        Reply
  3. dnem

     /  May 13, 2016

    That graphic is perfect! 2045?? Hah! This year or the next three or four, max.

    Reply
    • JPL

       /  May 13, 2016

      Must be rough on the psyche being a polar ice climate modeler right now.

      The stakes are high, you know your models are likely going to come up short and reality keeps breaking in the worst case scenario direction. And to top it all off, they’re looking over their shoulder to see which group of deniers is gunning for them today.

      I bet some days they wish they had taken the blue pill. Props to them for fighting the good fight.

      Reply
      • Have to agree here. Modeling ice behavior in a dynamically changing climate system is amazingly tough to get right. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try, but there are a lot of physical dynamics in play that haven’t been nailed down yet.

        Reply
  4. Colorado Bob

     /  May 13, 2016

    The Greenland melt season has finally begun and then some.

    Today we can announce that the Greenland melt season started on the 10th May 2016, tied joint 5th with 1999 in the rankings of early starts to the melt season.

    The top 5 earliest official starts are thus:

    1996 (29th April)
    2010 (2nd May)
    1990 (6th May)
    2006 (7th May)
    2016/1999 (10th May)
    The latest start was last year, 12th June, 2015.

    http://polarportal.dk/en/nyheder/arkiv/nyheder/the-true-start-of-the-greenland-melt-season/

    Reply
    • Greenland melt season started back in April with the huge melt spike that happened then coincident with a large inrush of warm air. DMI needs to consider the earlier marker.

      Reply
    • See the spike in early April —

      That’s when Greenland melt season started this year.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  May 13, 2016

        Agreed, I couldn’t recall the exact date for that.

        Reply
      • Griffin

         /  May 13, 2016

        Just for the sake of clarity, the melt season was not declared “official” in April due to conditions not meeting the parameters for the specified time frame. It is splitting hairs, but the threshold is there and was not met until this week.
        This from the Polar Portal website.
        “we came close to three consecutive days over 5% but just missed out. Since early April, a large dump of snow over the ice sheet in early May temporarily halted melting, which resumed in earnest last week.”
        http://polarportal.dk/en/nyheder/arkiv/nyheder/the-true-start-of-the-greenland-melt-season/

        Reply
        • Thanks for the clarification Griff. The earlier announcement from DMI failed to mention a second requirement of exceeding the 5 percent threshold over three consecutive days. In any case, it appears very likely that this is exactly what happened with April 10 data showing 10 percent melt and April 11 showing 12 percent melt (April 12 data isn’t clear at this point, but spike seems to cover 5 days in total).

          You can see the April 11 announcement by DMI that clearly states that melt season began on April 10 when melt exceeded 10 percent and that melt then hit 12 percent on April 11. I find it likely that melt also exceeded 5 percent on April 12 given temperatures in the region at that time. But DMI gives no mention other than to state that melt season began on April 10 — http://polarportal.dk/en/nyheder/arkiv/nyheder/usaedvanlig-tidlig-afsmeltning-i-groenland/

          So there’s clearly a discrepancy between the earlier announcement and this one.

  5. climatehawk1

     /  May 13, 2016

    Tweet scheduled.

    Reply
  6. Somebody – don’t remember who – (Mark Serreze of NSIDC?) – predicted a few years ago that the blue ocean event would come in 2016 ± 3 years.
    His estimate / calculation was based on extrapolation from the PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume data then available.
    He was widely scoffed at the time. He was mocked again during the “recovery” after 2012.
    Just maybe – he was right?

    PS Can anyone remind me just who it was?

    Reply
    • The death spiral graph.
      (2nd link!)

      Reply
    • If this year’s trend continues — including the accumulated heat and very strong melt rates we are seeing now — there are a few sources who will be vindicated (US Navy being one of them).

      Worth noting that FDDs just hit a -1019 anomaly. With the current warm air influx it looks like we a possible start of thawing degree days soon.

      … and apparently you have to click through to see the updated graphic.

      Reply
    • anthropocene

       /  May 15, 2016

      Professor Wieslaw Maslowski

      A BBC news article on the original prediction is here.
      http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm

      There is some debate about what ‘ice-free’ meant in this context and also what the original prediction was. Was 2013 the median of the prediction or just the earliest year in the 2016+-3 years range? In recent times Maslowski prediction’s have been 2016+-3 years. Hope this helps.

      Reply
    • Fantastic news.

      Reply
      • Mblanc

         /  May 14, 2016

        Over 300 years of industrial coal use is slowly coming to an end in the UK

        When I was a kid we went on a school trip to the Ironbridge Gorge Museums (a fantasic day for anyone who gets the chance to visit), and I clearly remember being stunned by the Iron Bridge itself. Can you imagine how futuristic it must of seemed to all who witnessed its opening, in 1779?

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Iron_Bridge

        It was the coal derived coke that enabled iron smelting to start, in nearby Coalbrookdale, in 1709. So that is over 300 years of King Coal, and those days are clearly ending. One day the effects of the emissions from our industrial coal use will have disappeared. How long will that be?

        Almost certainly longer than 300 years…

        Reply
      • Bill H

         /  May 14, 2016

        MBlanc,

        I wouldn’t be so sure as that. Coal is still necessary for steel making from ore (though recycling scrap steel can now be done using electrolysis – a big improvement).

        Reply
        • You can use wood pellets for the carbon for steel making. So coal is not a necessary part of the process. Just the one that is in common use today.

      • Bill H

         /  May 14, 2016

        Robert, an excellent summary – my donation on its way.

        As well as the big swathe of open water off the Canadian/Alaskan coast I also note a remarkable area of open water south of the Nares strait. Any idea what’s going on there? I recall from one of Neven’s posts that the opening of the Nares early in the melt season could be important for ice transport.

        Reply
      • Abel Adamski

         /  May 15, 2016

        Re Steel manufacture and Carbon/CO2 emission
        http://www.manmonthly.com.au/news/initiative-for-a-carbon-dioxide-free-steel-industr

        Initiative for a carbon-dioxide-free steel industry

        5 April, 2016 SSAB, LKAB and Vattenfall

        SSAB, LKAB and Vattenfall have announced today that they are launching an initiative to solve the carbon dioxide problem in the Swedish steel industry. Together, the companies involved will initiate work to develop a steel production process that emits water rather than carbon dioxide.

        The world is facing major challenges in the quest for a more sustainable society. SSAB’s existing production system is already one of the world’s most efficient in terms of carbon dioxide emissions. Nevertheless, existing steelmaking technology using coke plants and blast furnaces means SSAB is Sweden’s largest single source of carbon dioxide emissions.

        SSAB, LKAB and Vattenfall together are prepared to assume major responsibility to find a long-term solution to the carbon dioxide problem in the steel industry. Consequently, the companies concerned have announced today that they are launching a joint industrial development project to create steel production that emits water instead of carbon dioxide.

        With its specialized, innovative steel industry, access to fossil-free electricity and the highest-quality iron ore in Europe, Sweden is uniquely placed for such a project.

        “The environment and sustainability have been a part of SSAB’s long-term strategy for many years. But we want to do even more. Under this initiative, we will take responsibility to solve long-term the problem of carbon dioxide in the steel industry,” states Martin Lindqvist, President and CEO at SSAB

        “LKAB makes iron ore products using processes that require less energy and result in fewer emissions than the majority of our competitors. Our focus lies on also optimizing our customers’ processes. This drive for carbon-dioxide-free ironmaking will be a significant contribution to sustainability,” says Jan Moström, President and Group CEO at LKAB.

        I knew I had saved the link, took a while to find it, so many links I have to sort and file
        US and Australia wonder why their steel industries are not competitive, outdated and inferior gives aclue

        Reply
      • Mblanc

         /  May 16, 2016

        Point taken about coal still being used in some sectors, and I assume that will continue for some while after the energy sector finally throws in the towel, which is currently predicted to be about 10 years away.

        Reply
      • Bill h

         /  May 16, 2016

        M blanc, Robert, I’m not sure about wood chips replacing coal for most steel making, though it is the way that iron has been smelted for thousands of years. However, it seems to me that we should be preserving coal for such specialist uses rather than wasting it on power production. As somebody once put it: “Burning oil for fuel is like throwing a Picasso on a fire.”

        Reply
  7. JPL

     /  May 13, 2016

    RS, coming from an emerging threat assessment background, you won’t be shocked by this one – the insurance ponzi crowd is paying attention (this is from a conference held last month):

    Academy of Risk Management and Insurance – Sea Level Rise Will Be Worse and Come Sooner

    “Sea levels could rise by much more than originally anticipated, and much faster, according to new data being collected by scientists studying the melting West Antarctic ice sheet – a massive sheet the size of Mexico.

    That revelation was made by an official with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Tuesday at the annual RIMS conference for risk management and insurance professionals in San Diego, Calif.

    The conference is being attended by more than 10,000 people, according to organizers. It was day No. 3 of the conference, which ends Wednesday.

    Margaret Davidson, NOAA’s senior advisor for coastal inundation and resilience science and services, and Michael Angelina, executive director of the Academy of Risk Management and Insurance, offered their take on climate change data in a conference session titled “Environmental Intelligence: Quantifying the Risks of Climate Change.”

    Davidson said recent data that has been collected but has yet to be made official indicates sea levels could rise by roughly 3 meters or 9 feet by 2050-2060, far higher and quicker than current projections. Until now most projections have warned of seal level rise of up to 4 feet by 2100.”

    Reply
    • These numbers have been circulated in an earlier report by Insurance industry professionals. They’re somewhat in line with the worst case that Hansen identifies and it’s definitely something to keep an eye on. However, we should be very clear that this is a close to worst case scenario track and that lots of things would have to line up for us to hit 3 meters by 2050. It’s possible. But we’d have to see a very rapid ice sheet disintegration for that to occur.

      It’s also worth mentioning that the insurance industry has been very concerned about the impacts of climate change for some time. The industry basically lose viability if large scale loss of property occurs over extended periods of time. Sea level rise is just one risk they’re very concerned about.

      Reply
      • ” this is a close to worst case scenario track and that lots of things would have to line up for us to hit 3 meters by 2050. It’s possible. But we’d have to see a very rapid ice sheet disintegration for that to occur.”

        Yeah – but for years now, seems as if every new serious study comes up with the news that things are worse than expected.

        Reply
    • Wow. And quick too.

      Just want to say that Dahr has done some excellent reporting on this issue. He seems a good fellow. Would like to have a chat about all this craziness with him one day.

      Reply
  8. robspear

     /  May 13, 2016

    Cracking that is parallel to the entire perimeter of the arctic basin and animations of the ice during the past week indicate synchronized clockwise motion of the entire ice mass. Yikes…

    Reply
    • The gyres are spinning up. The ice is too weak to hold in place.

      Reply
      • Carol

         /  May 13, 2016

        Well, that language certainly reminds one of the first verse of The Second Coming, by W.B. Yeats:

        William Butler Yeats (1865-1939)

        THE SECOND COMING

        Turning and turning in the widening gyre
        The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
        Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
        Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
        The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
        The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
        The best lack all conviction, while the worst
        Are full of passionate intensity.

        Reply
      • mlparrish

         /  May 14, 2016

        The poets continue to warn: http://poems.com/poem.php?date=16935

        Road Trip

        Over the singed and brittle roadside stalks,

        over cotton, corn and stubble,

        our car’s dark bug-shape slithers.

        Over the metal drainpipe, over the oil rig,

        and the burned field where a windmill

        cranks its pinch of rust, we are

        a hurried sweep of shadow, a sleek chromatic

        gleam the cold sun follows

        with its blue-orange dot of concentration.

        We scurry like a flea across the hide of something

        both immense and underfed,

        a creature from the mind’s culvert,

        an animal concocted out of barbed-wire ribs

        and cockleburs, the grass its rippling fur

        through which our small wake passes like a shiver.

        Davis McCombs

        Reply
      • Cate

         /  May 14, 2016

        Poetry is also prophecy.

        Reply
  9. JPL

     /  May 13, 2016

    Just came across this:

    https://breakfree2016.org/

    “May 4-15, 2016: A global wave of mass actions will target the world’s most dangerous fossil fuel projects, in order to keep coal, oil and gas in the ground and accelerate the just transition to 100% renewable energy. Across the world, people are showing the courage to confront polluters where they are most powerful — from the halls of power to the wells and mines themselves.”

    They have a global map of actions around the world you can participate in. I see the kayaktivists have planned a protest in my neck of the woods (WA state). Suppose it will make the evening news…?

    Reply
  10. A foolish question perhaps but if these temps continue at this rate won’the blue ocean event happen before September? In this nutty year, the US election and artic heat, anything could happen it seems unimaginable is happening everywhere.
    Sheri

    Reply
  11. Reply
  12. Fossil Fuels – Burning tank cars – Casualties – Destruction –

    – Don’t believe the hype: The scene of a crude oil derailment and fire is an uncontrollable fire. All firefighters can do is evacuate the area and wait for the fire to burn itself out.
    ….
    In 2013 in Lac Megantic, Quebec, 47 people died when an oil train derailed and caught fire in the center of a small Canadian town. More than 1.5 million gallons of crude oil spilled in flowing “rivers of fire”, creating pool fires and filling sewers. Blocks away uncontrollable fires erupted from drains and manholes and more than 30 building were destroyed. Despite 1,000 firefighters responding from across Quebec and Maine the fire burned for two days
    ….

    Reply
  13. – Tires burning – Tires for Fossil fuel burning vehicles

    Reply
    • David ‏@follownewsnow1 1m1 minute ago

      #Spain #Madrid Huge fire in tire dump makes 1000s evacuate homes in Spain

      Reply
      • – Opinion: From ‘Fort Denial’ to ‘Tire World’ in only one week.
        Thousands of citizens are forced to flee from the same relative root cause.

        Reply
    • Reply
      • Eric Thurston

         /  May 14, 2016

        Ouch! These tire dump fires can burn for months and are almost impossible to extinguish. I remember reading about a massive tire dump that had a fire watch tower to try and catch any fire early on. What a dystopian vision.

        Reply
      • PlazaRed

         /  May 14, 2016

        The Spanish news stated last night that there are about 70 thousand tonnes of tires in the stockpile.
        The site has been illegal since 2003.
        The site was not monitored or guarded at nights.
        The suspected cause of the fire is said to be human arson.
        The fire is said to be so out of control it could burn for days or weeks.

        Basically nobody knows what to do with it but it is a huge embarrassment as well as a disaster.
        The fire was probably started to avoid the company having to remove the tires at vast expense.

        There will no doubt be investigations and cover ups in the years or decades to come as usual, Spain has had quite a lot ecological disasters involving fires and mining which are not always investigated fully, as the cash going to certain people filters through to slow down the processes to the point that they stop or become obscure.

        Added to this but on a side line. In my village which is in fact a city of 9000+ people, climate change or any related problems are almost unknown to the general public. Vast amounts of agricultural fires are lit on a daily basis in a huge area of Spain with no apparent controls or monitoring to burn of scrub and olive pruning’s.
        We have just had 9 days of heavy rain and showers in May. Something I have never seen in the 25 years I have lived here in this area.

        Reply
  14. Reply
    • Tweet scheduled on this, thanks.

      Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  May 14, 2016

      Such a brave and inspirational figure. Piers Sellers is the type of person I think of when I hear pathetic deniers make ridiculous claims about climate scientists, like the one that they’re in it for the money. These are some of the least selfish and most thoughtful people you can think of. Like Sellers, who with just one year left on this Earth, decides against keeping himself comfortable and indulging in fantasies and luxury, and spends his time researching the most critical issue to humanity, trying to solve this problem and raising awareness. A hero in my book if there ever was one.

      Reply
  15. India – Climate change drought forces judicial to weigh on the side of food distribution.

    SC directs 12 drought-hit states to immediately rush free food

    NEW DELHI: Law or no law, the right to food is a constitutional one, the Supreme Court said on Friday, directing 12 drought-hit states to immediately rush free food grains and other subsidised items such as dal and edible oil to all those in the affected areas.

    The states were also directed not to discontinue their mid-day meals in schools during the summer vacations. “No one can doubt that children are the future of our country and if there is some stinginess in providing them with adequate nutrition, the country as a whole is deprived in future of taking the benefit of their potential,” Justices Madan B Lokur and NV Ramanna observed.
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/sc-directs-12-drought-hit-states-to-immediately-rush-free-food/articleshow/52262686.cms

    Reply
    • – India – Water Trains
      – crore: a unit of value equal to ten million rupees or 100 lakh
      – merriam-webster.com/dictionary
      10,000,000.00 INR = 149,200.00 USD

      Railways withdraws its Rs 2-cr water bill sent to drought-hit Latur
      Till now more than 6 crore litres of water has been transported by the Railways from Miraj to Latur.

      A day after The Indian Express reported that the Railways had sent the administration in drought-hit Latur a bill of Rs 2.16 crore for water trains sent to the region, Union Rail Minister Suresh Prabhu has ordered that the “estimate” be withdrawn immediately.

      The Rail Ministry said in a statement on Friday that it had sent the “estimated expenditure” in response to a request from the Latur district administration to indicate the cost of water transportation.

      However, the district administration denied sending any such request. “From day one of our communication, we have said that in view of the prevailing drought situation in Latur, the bill for water transportation should be waived. Point 4 of our first communication itself makes it very clear,” Latur district collector Pandurang Pole told The Indian Express.
      http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/marathwada-water-crisis-railways-withdraw-rs-4-crore-water-bill-sent-to-drought-hit-latur-2799083/

      Reply
  16. The interesting part would come after the blue ocean event.

    “May you live in interesting times”… Chinese curse?

    Sent from my iPad 🙏🏻

    >

    Reply
    • Cate

       /  May 14, 2016

      Robert, have you done, or if not would you do, a piece spelling out the ramifications of a blue ocean event in the Arctic? Once the sea ice goes for the first time, what could happen next, and next, and after that…..and what might be the consequences, big and small?

      A small consequence, for example: wouldn’t loss of sea ice pretty much mean the end of multi-year ice in most areas of the Arctic? Here is Newfoundland we are familiar with “old” ice, as it mixes with the great ice pack that drifts down the Labrador coast every spring. Multi-year ice is diamond-hard and last to melt…..So if it disappears from the sea, what would this mean in turn for flora and fauna at all levels of the biosphere, for weather patterns, etc etc.

      Reply
      • There are two trains of thought as regards a blue ocean event. By far, the largest number of scientists speculating beyond the first year of blue ocean say that it will be a week or so the first year, maybe two or three weeks the second year, gradually adding days each year, so that in a couple of decades there will be an Arctic Ocean that is ice-free half the year. I would liken this to a tipping point of a half-filled glass of water on a table: increase the angle enough and all the water spills on the table — but, and this is important to note, the glass is still in one piece. You can refill it an tip it over again and again.

        Smaller numbers of scientists entertain the possibility that the glass is at the edge of the table — when it passes the tipping point, it falls to the floor, shatters into pieces, with water all over the floor. It could be that a blue ocean event will, through increased wave action, may make refreeze very difficult over long fetches of open ocean. If there are large swells from Tuktoyaktuk to Tiksi, how cold does it have to get to freeze over? We know that the Bering Sea freezes over despite large waves, but that is because it has a good anchor at the Bering Strait to grow from. Not so over on the Barentsz Sea side; in addition to temperature, wave action there may be playing a big part in the much reduced winter ice area.

        If you ask a scientist “which tipping point is it?”, you don’t get a clear answer. Just as models are unprepared for a blue ocean event before about 2070, scientists are unprepared for a “fast” tipping point. I’d like to understand this better, but nucleation of phase transitions is a physics problem, and a little beyond my expertise. However, after the fact, when large expanses of the Arctic refuse to refreeze in winter, some theoretician will come up with an explanation, and a modeler will find some factors to explain it that were heretofore considered unimportant.

        Reply
      • danabanana

         /  May 14, 2016

        @PChemJohn
        Either way, in the end the amount of heat going into the blue ocean will be astronomical and the shallow seas of the Siberian shelf are filled with Clathrate hydrates…

        Reply
      • Ryan in New England

         /  May 14, 2016

        I’ve often contemplated the ramifications of a blue ocean event…more so recently. As John eloquently explained, there a couple schools of thought on what happens next. Regardless of who’s right, there will be profound changes and dramatic consequences once we see a total (or near total) melt of the Arctic ice.

        Reply
      • wili

         /  May 14, 2016

        I don’t have time to track it down right now, but it seems to me I saw an article recently that purported to show that loss of sea ice need not be a one way street; that even if we have a ‘blue ocean event,’ if we could somehow there after slow, stop, and then reverse increases in atmospheric CO2 levels, that the sea ice would likely be able to recover over not too long of a time.

        (This is of course in contrast to land ice, which, as I understand it, would take thousands to millions of years to re-accumulate once we they have melted, even with reduced CO2 levels.)

        Reply
  17. Jay M

     /  May 14, 2016

    Dry looking over the eastern Pacific, but the PDX area us supposed to cool down with some light rain over the next week

    Reply
  18. The Fort McMurray fire
    The green and the black
    A catastrophe increases tensions over oil, pipelines and climate change

    CANADIANS have rallied round Fort McMurray, the western city ravaged by a forest fire this month. They have sent food, clothing and messages of support to the 90,000 people who fled their homes. The Red Cross collected C$54m ($42m) in a matter of days. Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister, promised federal help.

    But the disaster has also exposed divisions between oil-producing Alberta, where more than 220,000 hectares (550,000 acres) were engulfed by fire, and the rest of Canada. The rancour appeared first on social media, with tweets such as “Welcome to climate change, Alberta. Feel free to keep denying it.” “Scumbag” was one Albertan response. The spat spread to newspapers and television. Asked at a news conference whether he blamed climate change for the fire, Mr Trudeau dodged the question.

    http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21698717-catastrophe-increases-tensions-over-oil-pipelines-and-climate-change-green-and-black?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/thegreenandtheblack

    Reply
    • Cate

       /  May 14, 2016

      Trudeau dodged the question? Oh, who saw that coming. Let’s not forget that this man believes that renewables can be funded by pipelines. We also have an even kookier premier out there in BC, Christy Clark, who absolutely believes in climate change but insists that LNG is the way to go. This is the kind of schizo stuff we are dealing with at the very top in Canada, and which utterly confuses the “green vs black” discourse.

      With regard to that, Canada is currently engaged in a huge self-talking-to exercise on social media and comment areas on MSM about how to paper over the huge cracks that have appeared as a result of this fire. The cracks themselves are not new, just their size: Western alienation has been a constant theme in Canadian political and public life at least since the 1960s. Alberta striking oil was like the youngest kid in the family winning the lottery.Alberta felt that the hated National Energy Policy cramped its earning potential. At one point, the premier of Alberta famously snapped that they would “let the eastern bastards freeze in the dark.” So that’s the context for all this anxious running around and trying to convince ourselves that Canadians are one big happy family—and for the great blow-up between the “green and the black.”

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  May 14, 2016

        Just to clarify, the “eastern bastards” quote is historic—-not Rachel Notley, but Ralph Klein, who ruled Alberta an age ago.

        Reply
      • Cate

         /  May 14, 2016

        And incidentally, when Alberta finally did get its political act together enough to claim the big seat on the national stage, it was in the person of Stephen Harper, who cut his political teeth in Alberta, and went on to become the most hated prime minister in Canadian history.

        Reply
      • Ryan in New England

         /  May 14, 2016

        Thanks so much for all of the information, and perspective you provide, Cate. Not only with this comment, but with all that you share🙂

        Reply
  19. Reblogged this on Nick Robson's Blog.

    Reply
  20. Andy in SD

     /  May 14, 2016

    Here is another instance of a population explosion for crabs.

    Here, Chesapeake Bay, starfish etc… At first glance one thinks “good news! It’s a rebound!”. But there is another possibility. All of these sudden population explosions are by sea creatures which spawn larvae. Normally, they have a ton of babies, and as the larvae grow the population is thinned by fish.

    If the fish population is crippled, you get the population explosion.

    http://www.cbs8.com/story/31949244/thousands-of-tuna-crab-wash-ashore-in-imperial-beach

    This is a headline from June 2/2015

    Scientists warning of mass die-off along California coast — Official: Seafloor littered with dead fish, washing up “as far as I could see” — Toxin has spread all up and down West Coast — Experts: “Very, very unusual… Really extraordinary” (VIDEO)

    I’ll link the article in a reply (due to the filter blocking).

    Reply
    • Andy in SD

       /  May 14, 2016

      Now we add the algae blooms which cause crab populations to explode (they eat algae under the age of 4) and we see the ecosystem destabilizing.

      The starfish will decimate the shellfish population. We may see an explosion of fish populations at some point as their predators population (seals) were hit last year. We may be entering a series of boom /bust cycles for ocean life on the US coasts which end in bust.

      ====================================================

      Scientists warning of mass die-off along California coast — Official: Seafloor littered with dead fish, washing up “as far as I could see” — Toxin has spread all up and down West Coast — Experts: “Very, very unusual… Really extraordinary” (VIDEO)

      http://enenews.com/tv-scientists-warning-mass-die-ocean-california-official-seafloor-littered-dead-fish-washing-could-reports-dead-seabirds-already-coming-toxin-spread-all-down-west-coast-experts-worried-abo

      Reply
      • From my 1958 perspective, the lack of dry sand in the Imperial Beach scene is surreal.
        There should be about 20 m of fore-dune sand, then another 30 m of dry sand — then the flat wet/damp sand.
        I used to surf fish there — and ride my bike over a very flat beach. It was my back yard.
        I thought ‘imperial’ meant a flat/wide beach.
        At the 01:17 mark in the news video, frame left to frame right, the sand horizon should be about level with the shoulders of the gray shirted woman in the background. This was a ‘flat’ beach — there was no such grade, or incline.
        El Nino is not responsible for that.

        Ps Up the coast in Orange County the red crabs litter beaches there too.

        Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  May 14, 2016

      That’s a very interesting thought, Andy. And it seems (to me anyway) to make perfect sense. The oceans used to be exquisitely balanced, and we have destroyed that balance in many ways. The world’s seas are not an endless sewer/supply of fish. Combine man’s direct damage with warming/acidification and it becomes too much for the ecosystems to absorb.

      Reply
    • Mulga Mumblebrain

       /  May 15, 2016

      Andy, I heard of a episode in Chesapeake Bay some years ago, where a crash in shell-fish was attributed to the carnage of sharks, a global phenomenon. With no sharks to prey on them, the population of rays and skates boomed, and they eat shell-fish. We’ve destroyed all the inter-connections between the living systems of the Earth, and the Web of Life is unraveling before our eyes. It will take hundreds of millennia to restore the system.

      Reply
  21. Bill H

     /  May 14, 2016

    Robert, an excellent summary – my donation on its way.

    As well as the big swathe of open water off the Canadian/Alaskan coast I also note a remarkable area of open water south of the Nares strait. Any idea what’s going on there? I recall from one of Neven’s posts that the opening of the Nares early in the melt season could be important for ice transport.

    (re-sending this comment, since the first attempt ended up in a sub-thread for some reason).

    Reply
    • Warmest regards, Bill. I promise to keep doing my best for you guys.

      That’s a usual place for polynya formation due to prevailing winds and warm water upwelling. But Baffin is quite reduced for this time of year as well. Beaufort and Bering-Chukchi seem to be getting hit the hardest, though.

      Reply
  22. 04:43 UTC
    May 14

    Reply
    • Andy in SD

       /  May 14, 2016

      That is friggin horrifying.

      Reply
    • entropicman

       /  May 14, 2016

      Remember when losing 100,000sq km/day was unusual?

      Reply
    • Cate

       /  May 14, 2016

      Starting to look like a nose-dive. Stomach-churning.

      Reply
      • It is indeed. I keep expecting this to level off mainly because every year lots of posters on the ASIF keep expecting this to be the year, but then the melt season defies the early expectations. Neven refuses to make any early calls just because the Arctic always does the unexpected.

        This year though is clearly different. I expect this nose dive to level off at some point, but just because the ice will break up and spread around, becoming slush. And then if conditions are right, later in the summer that slush will go poof. The metrics will probably be similar to 2012, but the state of the remaining ice will be much worse, meaning 2017 is very unlikely to be a recovery year.

        I’m going to write a blog post so I can share it on FB, I think. Not sure anyone will read it, but it might do myself some good to write it out.

        Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  May 14, 2016

      That is unbelievable. That rate of melt…in early May!! Crazy. This has been a remarkable year in the Arctic, from the beginning of Winter when we saw above freezing temps around Christmastime, to current melting. It’s like watching your worst nightmare happen in slow motion.

      Reply
  23. – Air pollution in California’s ‘Salad Bowl’.
    – Factors in denial and economic extortion. The monied corporate landholders and lobbyists can’t plead poverty.

    Life in San Joaquin valley, the place with the worst air pollution in America

    The air quality in this sun-baked California area known as ‘America’s salad bowl’ has been identified as the worst in the US. Residents are concerned, but low wages mean long hours out in the thick of it

    Life in San Joaquin valley, the place with the worst air pollution in America

    The air quality in this sun-baked California area known as ‘America’s salad bowl’ has been identified as the worst in the US. Residents are concerned, but low wages mean long hours out in the thick of it
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/13/california-san-joaquin-valley-porterville-pollution-poverty

    Reply
  24. pamcrisp

     /  May 14, 2016

    Unfortunately this article from a fairly august source seems to indicate that a meaningful reduction of fossil fuel use by the industrial nations may not on the cards any time soon.

    Sigh

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fossil-fuels-may-not-dwindle-anytime-soon/

    Reply
    • Pretty much every piece of information EIA puts out has either under-counted or under-predicted renewable energy adoption. The agency has a history of being overly fossil fuel focused and has consistently failed in both its tracking of global and national renewable energy trends and in forecast price projections and rates of adoption. It’s pretty clear that this study is worthless as a projection as it clearly fails to even taking into account current renewable energy adoption rates, current rates of coal plant closures, and current industry trends in which coal corporations have become increasingly nonviable. The study also fails to take into account renewable energy price trends and leveraged economies of scale over even the coming decade. If there’s an example of renewable energy denial in action, then this EIA study is it.

      As a bit of public information it’s basically worthless. I’d list this under fossil fuel centric worldview and rank misinformation.

      Reply
    • I’m with Robert on this. Occasionally I put in a bit of time researching answers to dopey comments elsewhere. Without fail, EIA stuff turns out to be not just wrong – it’s well into “not even wrong” territory. And it’s been like that for years and years. I learned to ignore it pretty quickly.

      Whatever assumptions or presumptions, they’ve used to come up with grossly failed projections in the past, they’re either still using _or_ they’ve hunted down an even worse set of assumptions and presumptions to replace them. Neither form of incompetence would surprise me.

      Reply
  25. Abel Adamski

     /  May 14, 2016

    Back to OZ and the CSIRO
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/global-sealevel-expert-john-church-made-to-walk-the-plank-by-csiro-20160513-gov0k9.html

    Global sea-level expert John Church made to walk the plank by CSIRO

    For John Church, a leading authority on sea-level rise caused by global warming, there was much that was fitting – and yet callous – about being sacked at sea.

    The veteran scientist was well into one of dozens of research voyages he had taken since joining CSIRO as a post doctoral student in 1979.

    His vessel, the RV Investigator, was midway between Antarctica and New Zealand and steaming north on the 170 degree longitude when he received Thursday’s call to tell him he was “potentially redundant”. (See map below.)

    Dr Church’s achievements include developing sophisticated models linking sparse tidal gauge information around the world with satellite data to reveal how much sea levels are rising.

    The current mission is retracing previous journeys along the 170 W longitude line to measure precisely how key parameters such as temperature, salinity and acidity are changing.
    No thought bubble: Deploying weather balloons from RV Investigator.

    No thought bubble: Deploying weather balloons from RV Investigator. Photo: Stewart Wilde

    As Dr Church notes, including in a Nature paper published last month, sea-level increases are accelerating as a warming planet melts glaciers and swells oceans.

    From increases of a few tenths of a millimetre annually in the 1000 years before about 1850, the rate jumped 1.7 mm on average in the 20th century. Since 1993, the rise has quickened to about 3 mm a year, he says.

    Despite this trend, CSIRO will slash about half the climate staff – about 70 scientists – in its Oceans & Atmosphere division. New hires will be made in climate adaptation and mitigation, the agency promises but numbers cited so far are much smaller.

    Climate adaption and mitigation.
    Adaption to what and mitigating what?

    Reply
  26. Colorado Bob

     /  May 14, 2016

    How Arctic spring kills birds in Africa

    Biologists learned that an early Arctic spring provokes deaths of birds in Africa

    Red knot birds are becoming smaller as temperatures warm in their Arctic breeding grounds. But the migrating birds don’t pay the price for this climate-caused shrinkage until they arrive at the more stable climate of their tropical winter homes. Having analyzed the data collected for more than three decades, scientists managed to show that the effects of climate changes in the Arctic may come out on a completely different continent, a few thousand kilometers away from the Arctic ice.

    The arrival of the red knots to these severe lands was “calculated” by evolution so that the birth of the chicks happens just at the peak of abundance of insects, their main food.

    But that was before the global warming has seriously changed the lives of the birds within a few decades. ……………………………..During these 30 years the arrival of spring on the Taimyr Peninsula, and the peak of the insect population moved for almost two weeks earlier in time. If the snow on the peninsula disappeared by the middle of July in the past, it is gone now at the end of June. Arrival dates of birds stayed stable, but phenologically birds begin to nest later than 30 years ago, and miss the peak of insect abundance essential for juvenile growth. The lack of food has caused a decrease in the size of the young birds, which is impossible be compensated later in life.

    Link

    Reply
  27. Abel Adamski

     /  May 14, 2016

    Dying Coral makes reef fish vulnerable due to the Stench

    https://weather.com/science/environment/news/damselfish-dead-coral-reef-smell-predator-instinct-bleaching-loss

    “When we were doing the experiments we were bringing in some of this dead coral, and we started to get complaints from our friends in the laboratory because the stuff was so smelly,” McCormick told ABC. If the smell was too much for people, you can imagine how much if could affect a fish, especially when they only grow up to 14 inches long like the damselfish.

    Damselfish’s bodies are covered with taste bud cells on the front, which they use to learn about predators.

    “Taste and smell are incredibly important if you’re a fish,” McCormick told Phys.org. “The smell that comes off [of a] degrading coral reef is actually masking some of the important chemicals that the animal is using to inform its decisions.”

    The scientists trained the damselfish to recognize the scent of a new predator by pairing that scent with another chemical damselfish release when under attack, BBC also reports. Only the fish in the healthy reefs were able to learn the new predator’s smell and hid among the coral upon coming into contact with it. In the dead reefs, the fish continued exploring, leaving themselves vulnerable.

    “If the process of cataloguing and avoiding predators is hindered in some species by coral degradation and loss, then much of the diversity of reef fish could be lost too. Many reef fish need specific habitats that only healthy coral reefs can provide,” said Uppsala University researcher Dr. Oona Lönnstedt.

    “If dead coral masks key chemical signals used to learn new predators, the replenishment of reefs could be seriously threatened,” she added.

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  May 14, 2016

      A very important finding. Yet one more study that reveals serious ramifications for wildlife that was little thought of or discussed before. Every time an expected/predicted consequence of climate change presents itself we seem to find countless other ways it is detrimental to the health of the environment.

      Reply
  28. Colorado Bob

     /  May 14, 2016

    The Forest Service’s climate change failure
    The agency faces historic costs due to climate change. So why is it opening up land for coal mining?

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2016/05/the-forest-services-climate-change-failure-000119#ixzz48dDi9OQn

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  May 15, 2016

      CB.
      I did read where Congress shifted the cost of Fighting forest fires from the Forest Service across to National Disaster funding

      Reply
  29. Kevin Jones

     /  May 14, 2016

    A little birdie tells me NASA GISS will report April at about 1.1C above 1951-1980 base period. March-April at 1.20C. Jan-April at 1.21C Although not as hot as recent months, an all time new record.

    Reply
  30. Kevin Jones

     /  May 14, 2016

    for month of April, I mean.

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  May 14, 2016

      Which makes 12 month running mean 1.0C above base. Which is one year average at 1.27C above 1901-1930 average.

      Reply
      • Kevin Jones

         /  May 14, 2016

        And past 7 months all record warm anomalies for those months. For GISS LOTI (land-ocean temperature).

        Reply
      • Zack Labe ‏@ZLabe 3h3 hours ago

        Latest reanalysis from @NASAGISS showing mean global temperatures as warmest April on record through 1880 (+1.1°C)

        Reply
  31. Colorado Bob

     /  May 14, 2016

    Fairbanks

    Currently 59.5 °F
    Yesterday
    High 85.3 °F

    Link

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  May 14, 2016

      Actual Time 4:29 AM AKDT This is the average high for this date.

      Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  May 14, 2016

      One problem, Colorado Bob, with Hell coming for breakfast is she’ll bring all her resident a–holes over for waffles as well.

      Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  May 14, 2016

      Weather Underground reports Fairbanks broke one year old record by 3F yesterday. Barrow a 86 year old record by same (reached 42F).

      Reply
    • NWS Fairbanks ‏@NWSFairbanks 2h2 hours ago

      Barrow set a high temperature record on Friday! The high yesterday was 42°F. The old record was 38°F set in 1928

      Reply
      • NWS WPC ‏@NWSWPC 4h4 hours ago

        Snow expected in upstate NY and New England beginning Sun pm and into Mon.

        Reply
      • Greg

         /  May 15, 2016

        That’s higher than our expected low tomorrow night in Virginia – 39F which puts us back into March. When the edge of this continental sized front came through within a few minutes the warm blue sky turned dark and grey and then the rain came and the wind and the temperature dropped and we went back in seasonal time. The arctic has spilled its guts again.

        Reply
  32. Colorado Bob

     /  May 14, 2016

    Global warming won’t just change the weather—it could trigger massive earthquakes and volcanoes

    Bill McGuire is not optimistic about humanity’s future. In his book, Waking the Giant: How a changing climate triggers earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes, he explains why.

    By his estimation, carbon dioxide emissions from human activity since industrialization began have changed the trajectory of earth’s climate for the next 100,000 years. We are already experiencing the mayhem and destruction that these changes can wreak, and, in the long term, things are only going to get worse.

    On the face of it, the hypothesis that a few degrees’ rise in the average temperature of the atmosphere can cause the earth’s tectonic plates to move sounds ludicrous. Yet, McGuire, professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London, shows through careful analysis of historical records that the relationship between the weather and the “solid” earth is incontrovertible.

    Link

    Reply
    • Interesting article, thanks for that.

      McGuire is worried about isostatic adjustment, and he should be, I think.

      I wonder myself though, about actual changes in the motion of major tectonic plates caused by changes in the rotation rate of the earth, possibly creating rifting. The massive core of the earth will want to rotate at its old rate, but as mass shifts from the poles toward the equator as icecaps melt, the crust of the earth and the continents will want to rotate slower. I’m worried that this slowing of the rotation rate of the earth could create rifting, as stresses are applied unevenly to continental plates.

      Past hyperthermal events are associated with rifting and flood basalt erruptions, in the geological record. It’s generally assumed that the flood basalt erruption helped create the hyperthermal by release of CO2. I’m worried that the hyperthermal could in turn make the flood basalt erruptions worse, by mass shifting from the poles toward the equator – perhaps a case of positive feedback.

      Experimenting on our collective home, perhaps the only home of intelligent life in the universe, seems like a really bad idea. There could be other intelligent alien civilizations. But we already know of a really close intelligent species, and a couple on the brink of intelligence, that appear to need saving.

      Reply
    • Cate

       /  May 15, 2016

      This is sorta related but not the same thing: a big collaborative study underway out of the UK looking at the possible impact of climate change on the likelihood of undersea landslides which go on to cause tsunamis. It amazes me that there’s hardly any buzz about this anywhere, but maybe that’s because I have a vested interest, living in the line of fire for Arctic undersea landslides: the east coast of Canada is one of the target zones they are including.

      http://projects.noc.ac.uk/landslide-tsunami/

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  May 15, 2016

        And this is a related story, very well done by the BBC, on the pre-historical Storegga undersea landslide, which scientists now think may have caused the inundation of what remained of “Doggerland”, the land area in what is now the North Sea. Doggerland had been sinking ever since the end of the last ice age and it seems that this tsunami may have been its death blow. It was a populated area, so we can only imagine the devastation.

        The cause of these undersea landslides on the continental shelves is of great interest now, of course, as climate change suggests all sorts of scenarios for impacts in the Arctic in particular.

        http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20160323-the-terrifying-tsunami-that-devastated-britain?ocid=global_earth_rss

        Reply
    • Mblanc

       /  May 16, 2016

      Some nice snippets from big Bill. As someone who has published books on the comparative risks of a wide range of natural disasters, I think his overview of the methane issue is telling.

      I have read him talk about hydrates off the coast of Greenland before, and the suggestion that those hydrates could trigger submarine landslides.

      I think the North Atlantic is the equivalent of a ringside seat, to the many and varied effects of CC.

      Reply
      • Hi Mblanc, Hi Cate. –
        Thanks for the links, very interesting.

        I do hope that 2015-2016 are statistical outlier years, and that things slow down just a little after this El Nino is over. Of course, a very few years from now, there will be another El Nino, and it will be launching from a higher point on the upward trend. Melt water from Greenland will slow things down a bit – but the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is a long way from Greenland.

        Even very moderate methane releases can add significantly to ocean acidification, I think. We’re not even prepared for the much longer term milder effects of CO2 based global warming. We think we have firestorms now – we could have firestorms tens, maybe hundreds of miles across, if a sufficiently large methane release occurs.. A sufficiently large and sudden methane release could create hurricanes with winds of hundreds of miles per hour, likely. Even slow methane releases could set us inexorably on a path to low level runaway global heating, with slow but inexorable exhaustion of the ability of whole ocean basins to oxidize methane, leading to increasingly direct release of methane into the atmosphere. Direct release of methane into the atmosphere could set us inexorably on the path to massive atmospheric chemistry changes that work to increase the lifetime of methane in the atmosphere, and increases in tropospheric ozone and stratospheric water vapor, further increasing global heating. And heating from any source can drive increased heating from water vapor, the strongest greenhouse gas, as the atmospheric concentration of water vapor increases by about 7 percent per degree C of warming.

        Methane and CO2 from the melting permafrost could also act as a bridge from mild CO2 based warming to destabilization of the methane hydrates.

        About undersea landslides and tsunamis, those do seem worrisome, to me. Yes, they could be potentially catastrophic. A tsunami in the Atlantic could easily decimate many cities located close to the water.

        The experts know best, I think. But so far, scientific conservatism has led to a vast underestimation of the rate of change, I think

        Reply
  33. when was the last ‘blue ocean’ event? during the PETM 55 million years ago?

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  May 14, 2016

      My understanding was the last time the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in summer was 3 million years ago. A very recent report with sediment data suggests not ice-free in summer for maybe the past 6 million years. The planet was in a long cooling trend from the PETM until the jitterbug glacial/interglacial dance of the past 2-3 million years followed by the pronounced fits and starts of the past million….yet the average through this timeframe has still been a cooling one until we started this grave robbing business.

      Reply
  34. Kevin Jones

     /  May 14, 2016

    GISTEMP just made April Land-Ocean Temperature Index data available. 1.11C Making Jan-April 1.21C Record hot 2015 Jan-Dec came in at 0.87C…. previous record hot year, 2014 came in at 0.74…..(record before that was 2010 at 0.72C)

    Reply
  35. – USA – Albany, NY — Citizens adopt defensive postures in actions to stop oil bomb trains.
    Lindsay Ellis ‏@lindsayaellis 2h2 hours ago

    “Hey folks, get comfortable,” shouts one person. #breakfree2016

    Reply
  36. Reply
  37. DrFog

     /  May 14, 2016

    Cycled to Cannes this afternoon, just trying to understand what all this thing about the film festival was about. The venue where it is held is located right at a corner edge of Cannes’ marina.

    Until getting to the main venue I saw huge amounts of wandering people, big queues of very slow car traffic and lots of police and military holding machine guns. A hubristic self-entitlement to a non-negotiable lifestyle could be sensed in the air.

    Looking at a summary of the films being shown, not a single one that might make people just a bit more aware of AGW. If anything, all this seems to inculcate (by omission) in the minds that AGW is not really an urgent issue, even if all the Arctic sea ice melts in summer.

    No surprise there, the super rich people that control media, film industry, and probably many governments have their multi-million yachts anchored just adjacent to the festival venue.

    Reply
    • “A hubristic self-entitlement to a non-negotiable lifestyle could be sensed in the air.”
      That’s a good phrase.

      The film industry is big business.
      There are many concerned artists within it.
      It’s amazing how many movies are made each year — and the billions of dollars, etc. that people spend on movies but still plead poverty if asked to pay ‘carbon tax’ or any equivalent means of slowing global warming.

      Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  May 14, 2016

      An abysmal situation, isn’t it Dr. Fog? Thanks for the boots on the ground local report!

      Reply
    • DrFog

       /  May 15, 2016

      Ryan, in my case it was more like bicycle tyres on the ground, though sometimes I had to dismount due to the high density of wandering people🙂

      Yes, things do appear abysmal, anthropocentrism at its peak, healthy and balanced natural ecosystems are irrelevant, cars and air conditioned houses shield these people from any possible discomfort.

      Reply
  38. DrFog

     /  May 14, 2016

    In the previous post I inserted a link to a photo I took there but it didn’t show up, maybe the link was automatically removed. Another try using a different approach:

    Cannes, Boulevard de la Croisette

    Reply
  39. DrFog

     /  May 14, 2016

    Multi-million yachts anchored close to Boulevard de la Croisette, Cannes, 14 May 2016, around 14h

    Reply
  40. I was late to this party. After many years of drinking and coming out of fog, I’ve jumped in and discover things are far worse than even I would have believed. I’ve given up this fight to sound alarms and am facing inevitable collapse. The ecological collapse started in 1970 when the first Earth Day was ignored of their predictions to come. This was believed at that time, to really get a start to rein in greenhouse gasses and the oil based economy. All I saw was a stop to sulfur by adding scrubbers to coal fired plants. 3 mile island ended nuclear energy in the USA, brought about by “environmentalist’s” action.
    The cold war ended and the environment came up again in the 90’s, all that was done was to help save the ozone. Alarms again sounded, but by then the denialist’s moved from tobaco to climate.
    The collapse of the USA started on 9/11 with a 1st coup of sorts to greatly expand the biggest polluter, the military. This has to go 1st for any chance to avoid total climactic destruction. Again we see escalations all around the globe.
    The 2nd coup was the financial collapse of 07-08, and a vast amount of capital stolen from the middle class. Again nothing is done.
    We find us now with a situation of Arctic ice collapse unknown to humans. We don’t know what to expect that will ensue in the near future, let alone longer term predictions. Who knows?
    The best term I found was in the book “Hyperobjects; Philosophy and Ecology after the End of the World”. We’re in “it” and politicians enjoy a circus on the media, with no regard to the global warming event we’re in. I have no children and am grateful I don’t fret for a hypothetical future but I do care about this glorious planet that greedy, psychopathic, criminals have destroyed playing a losing game for all life as we know it.
    I now read Carolyn Baker, Guy McPherson,and Roy Scranton,et al. I’m sorry, but the capitalists have destroyed things, I just don’t know if humans will survive this event, but after the fall I hope the good humans do.

    Reply
  41. Gavin Schmidt ‏@ClimateOfGavin 13m13 minutes ago

    With Apr update, 2016 still > 99% likely to be a new record (assuming historical ytd/ann patterns valid).

    Reply
  42. Sydney Peace Prize

    Reply
  43. – It’s rewarding when a certain symmetry, or a ‘balanced’ equation, becomes evident in any circumstance. Whether read backwards, or forwards, the meaning should be the same.
    – Bob’s earlier post re John Tyndall got me to doing some reading.

    Something Tyndall said could be applied to the recent bout of Greenland ice melt caused by a surge warm, moist air.
    His description of the ameliorating effects of ‘water vapor’ on the climate kind of restates the Greenland melt, to wit:

    ‘He concluded that among the constituents of the atmosphere, water vapor is the strongest absorber of radiant heat and is therefore the most important gas controlling Earth’s surface temperature. He said, without water vapor, the Earth’s surface would be “held fast in the iron grip of frost.” He later speculated on how fluctuations in water vapor and carbon dioxide could be related to climate change. ‘

    Right now, Greenland and the Arctic could use a little “iron grip of frost”.

    Me, here in the PNW, I look up each day at the sky and see veils, curtains, rivers, and contrails of warm moist air in the atmosphere above me. And I shudder.
    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Tyndall/

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  May 14, 2016

      “It is cowardly, as it is fatal, to blink facts not to our taste.” John Tyndall

      Reply
  44. Colorado Bob

     /  May 14, 2016

    New Photos Show The Rapid Pace Of Great Barrier Reef Bleaching

    Photo (1), taken in Dec. 2015 shows healthy coral near Lizard Island. The coral in photo (2) from March is bleached. In April, as shown in photo (3), algae begin to grow on the coral. Finally, in photo (4) from May, you can see heavy algal overgrowth.

    This is the ominous final photo in the series:

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  May 15, 2016

      A death camp for sea life. An oceanic Auschwitz.

      Reply
    • Mulga Mumblebrain

       /  May 15, 2016

      The Australian MSM has dropped the story, stone dead, after a brief flurry of denial, and assertions by the tourist industry that the Reef would ‘soon recover’.

      Reply
  45. Jay M

     /  May 15, 2016

    Atmospheric rotation leaving rain over PDX, WA
    light rain, extraordinarily dry in April, May so far

    Reply
    • 05:03 UTC Yeah, weather went from hot and dry to cool and humid quite rapidly. Other places to the north stay warm and clear though.

      NWS Seattle ‏@NWSSeattle 6m6 minutes ago

      While clouds & showers have returned to WA state, it was remarkably clear over Alaska & western Canada today.

      Reply
  46. Colorado Bob

     /  May 15, 2016

    Miami, Fl – 73.8 °F

    It’s 7.6 °F warmer in Fairbanks, than Miami. Right now.

    Just nuts.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  May 15, 2016

      2:43 AM GMT on May 15, 2016
      0 +
      82.4 °F in Fairbanks –

      Reply
  47. Colorado Bob

     /  May 15, 2016

    The average high for Fairbanks on this date is 60 F degrees. So their 21 degrees above .

    The average high at Oshkosh, WI on this date is 66 F degrees. So their 22 degrees below.

    Someone posted the reanalyzer shot for today from the North Pole, and it looked like a bomb went off, and chucks of cold were blasted from the Pole southward and hot air rushed into fill the crater.

    It’s really nuts. Take Fort McMurray, Alberta for example, it’s 68 °F there, but it’s 39.7 °F at Oshkosh, WI .

    It’s really nuts. Fairbanks has gone up it’s now hotter than Karachi, 82.9 °F.

    It’s really nuts.

    I’m thinking that Dr. Jennifer Francis is gonna win a Nobel Prize. Because her theory is being run in the real world, in real time.

    Reply
  48. Abel Adamski

     /  May 15, 2016

    http://www.inquisitr.com/3096340/bangladesh-lightning-storms-leave-64-dead-in-just-48-hours-90-killed-by-lightning-strikes-since-march/
    Increased lightning a factor in the Tasmania fires recently, also last years forest fires in the US, Alaska and Canada

    Reply
  49. Jay M

     /  May 15, 2016

    heat blasting the arctic, yet the deniers will cling to the chunks of cold blasted southward somehow proving their belief

    Reply
  50. Reply
    • Peter Gleick ‏@PeterGleick 5h5 hours ago Berkeley, CA

      There is no good news in the temperature trend, except that #climate deniers have shut up about a “pause.”

      Reply
      • Kevin Jones

         /  May 15, 2016

        Interesting to see ‘potential WWII SST data issue’ in graph. Dr. Hansen has mentioned a concern with that bump. I’ve long wondered what, if real, it could possibly be attributed to.

        Reply
  51. Colorado Bob

     /  May 15, 2016

    1:32 AM GMT on May 15, 2016

    It is currently as hot in Fairbanks, AK ………. 81.3 °F , as it is in Karachi, Pakistan, ……….. 82 °F

    2:43 AM GMT on May 15, 2016
    0 +
    82.4 °F in Fairbanks

    2:53 AM GMT on May 15, 2016
    1 +
    Miami, Fl – 73.8 °F

    It’s 7.6 °F warmer in Fairbanks, than Miami. Right now.

    Just nuts.

    3:29 AM GMT on May 15, 2016

    83.8 °F at Fairbanks. 74.3 °F at Miami

    Reply
  52. Reply
  53. Andy in SD

     /  May 15, 2016

    For those that check the NSIDC charts for sea ice, they’ve calibrated the data on the F-18 satellite and are back in business.

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    Reply
  54. Colorado Bob

     /  May 15, 2016

    It was hotter in Fairbanks that Karachi, Pakistan earlier tonight.

    I am seriously worried about the boreal forest this year. It seems that it is a forest of matches. waiting for a spark.

    Reply
  55. Abel Adamski

     /  May 15, 2016

    Back down under in OZ again.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queenslands-mangrove-ecosystem-dying-in-secret-20160515-govikm.html

    The proverbial canary in the coal mine of the Queensland ecosystems went off months ago and we missed the calls.

    There have been large scale diebacks of mangrove trees in the Gulf of Carpentaria for months and scientist have only just noticed as they are in the most remote areas of Queensland.

    Scientists are not exactly sure what happened up there but they know the damage is extensive and unprecedented.

    James Cook University Professor and spokesman for the Australian Mangrove and Saltmarsh Network, Norm Duke, said they were only guessing at what happened, but he had some prevailing theories.

    “It is coincident with a very hot dry period in northern Australia, in some ways it is coincident, in the same season at least, with the dieback of corals on the east coast.

    “We don’t have any other indications of major events up there, the only other kinds of things that could cause such a wide area of mangrove death would be a large oil spill, very large, or a cyclone, or a tsunami.

    “But there’s been nothing like that the, only the dead mangroves.”

    Mangroves protect shorelines from erosion, stopping sediment going offshore. Professor Duke liked to think of them as coastal kidneys because they clean the water that comes from the land and goes into the sea.

    “That’s absolutely essential for ecosystems such as coral and seagrass, the rely on clean water and mangroves do the filtering on the coast.

    “Mangroves are also fish habitat and nursery and the fishermen are telling us their catches have dropped in the Karumba area for example.”

    The toll keeps rising in unexpected manners

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  May 15, 2016

      From human to mangrove, heat equals kidney failure. We could have a problem here.

      Reply
    • Vic

       /  May 15, 2016

      From Abel’s link,

      “They can store up to five times or more carbon than a normal forest and if they are dying like this they will release the carbon into the atmosphere and contribute further to global warming.”

      Mass dieback of mangroves is not in the models. Neither are the greenhouse gases of every other dead, decomposing organism on our planet right now.

      What does the greenhouse gas emission profile of a mass extinction look like ?

      Reply
      • Vic

         /  May 15, 2016

        (The image shows the world’s mangrove forests in 2000).

        Reply
  56. Wharf Rat

     /  May 15, 2016

    Gone for good: Arctic Ocean ice free all year by the 2040s?

    How soon could that happen? The ice volume data provides a simple way to arrive at an estimate: divide the normal winter heat loss by the annual heat surplus. At 350 km3 of ice lost per year (the 30 year volume trend), it will take 57 years. If the Arctic is seasonally ice-free by 2020, then it will be ice-free year round by 2080. However the recent volume loss has been running at 740 km3 per year, and if that rate continues it might only take 27 years for the winter ice to disappear. If the summer ice is gone by 2016, as might be possible at that rate of decline, then the Arctic could be ice-free in winter as early as 2043.

    http://hot-topic.co.nz/gone-for-good-arctic-ocean-ice-free-all-year-by-the-2040s/

    Reply
  57. Reply
  58. Reply
  59. Genomik

     /  May 15, 2016

    This veers into religion but David Brin attempts to recognize that a subset of Christians really, REALLY want an Apocalypse. This may explain why some in the GOP do not listen to reason or logic. They want fire and brimstone to fall from the sky (they are increasingly successful).

    David Brin is PhD scientist and Hugo award winning scifi writer who visualizes the future and how to get there in a positive way. He is very vocal about fighting climate change.

    http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2016/05/the-politics-of-religion.html?m=1

    Reply
  60. Colorado Bob

     /  May 15, 2016

    Just like the Great Barrier Reef, Australia’s mangroves are dying too; Mangrove death may contribute to global warming

    Scientists are extremely worried over the loss of mangroves in the Gulf of Carpentaria, possibly due to warmer ocean temperatures. For months, the mangrove trees are dying in that region. However, scientists came to know of the loss only recently as the mangrove trees are located in very remote areas of Queensland. Even though the scientists are unsure of what caused this loss, they are certain that the loss is unprecedented and extensive.

    http://www.ibtimes.com.au/just-great-barrier-reef-australias-mangroves-are-dying-too-mangrove-death-may-contribute-global

    Reply
  61. Colorado Bob

     /  May 15, 2016

    Earth just recorded its warmest April on record, and it wasn’t even close

    According to NASA, April had a temperature anomaly of 1.11 degrees Celsius, or 1.99 degrees Fahrenheit, above the 20th century average, which means the month tied with January for the third-most unusually mild month ever recorded.

    http://mashable.com/2016/05/14/earth-warmest-april/#vV_cV3zdCuqp

    Reply
  62. Colorado Bob

     /  May 15, 2016

    JERUSALEM (JTA) — A record-breaking heat wave has sparked fires throughout Israel and sent hundreds for treatment.

    More than 370 people were treated on Saturday and Sunday for heat-related conditions, including fainting, heat exhaustion and heatstroke, the Times of Israel reported, citing Magen David Adom. …………….. Eilat in the South hit 115 degrees Fahrenheit, breaking a May 1980 record of 113.4. In Jerusalem, temperatures reached 98.6 during the day and were expected to drop to only 82.4 at night. Tel Aviv was at 102 during the day and was to fall to 77 at night.

    http://www.jta.org/2016/05/15/news-opinion/israel-middle-east/record-breaking-heat-wave-hits-israel-sparks-fires

    Reply
  63. Today’s fortune cookie copy:

    “El Ninos may come and go but climate change is forever.”
    – DT Lange 2016

    Reply
  64. Reply
  65. – NA – USA – In this time of extreme weather here’s a reminder of past hurricane incursions.
    Natl Hurricane Ctr ‏@NWSNHC 3h3 hours ago

    Remember #hurricanes are not just a coastal problem! Serious effects can occur well inland. Be #hurricanestrong!

    Reply
  66. Naomi Klein criticises lack of global action on climate change after Sydney Peace prize win

    Author and social activist says political action on climate change was lacking ‘and nowhere more so than Australia’


    On Saturday the Sydney Peace Foundation, a foundation of the University of Sydney, announced Klein was the winner of the award.

    The jury explained Klein won “for exposing the structural causes and responsibility for the climate crisis, for inspiring us to stand up locally, nationally and internationally to demand a new agenda for sharing the planet that respects human rights and equality, and for reminding us of the power of authentic democracy to achieve transformative change and justice”.

    The jury noted climate change was at the root of violence and suffering across the world, from wars over water to fires and floods that destroy livelihoods and therefore “if we want to achieve peace, we cannot ignore climate change”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/may/15/naomi-klein-gives-australian-climate-policy-a-serve-after-sydney-peace-prize-win

    Reply
  67. phys.org/news/2016-05-methane-carbon-dioxide

    Methane and carbon dioxide on the rise
    May 13, 2016

    Satellite readings show that atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide are continuing to increase despite global efforts to reduce emissions.

    Methane concentrations were somewhat constant until 2007, but since then have increased at about 0.3% per year, whereas global carbon dioxide levels continue to rise at about 0.5% per year.

    The results, presented this week at the Living Planet Symposium in Prague, combine data from ESA’s veteran Envisat satellite and Japan’s GoSat mission.

    The reason for this recent methane increase is not fully understood, but scientists attribute it to several sources such as agriculture and fossil fuels.

    The data also show seasonal fluctuations, such as higher concentrations of methane in India and China during August and September. This is because wetlands and rice paddies are a major source of methane and emissions are largest if it is warm and humid.

    -The maps show atmospheric levels of methane from 2003 to 2005 and 2008 to 2010, showing increased concentrations in the latter dataset (in red). The newly released ‘Climate Research Data Package No. 3’ covers more than one decade (2003–14) of atmospheric data products used to get information on the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide and methane.

    Reply
  68. – Much of what confronts today is is due to personal choices — a sort of a ‘command and control’ mechanism with very far reaching consequences. All of this defies reason — yet we must try to reason with them at this late date.

    America’s Never-Ending Oil Consumption

    Why presidents have found it so difficult to ask people to just use less

    The United States accounts for less than 5 percent of the world’s population, but it consumes about 20 percent of the global energy supply. The average American citizen uses nearly two times as much fossil fuel as a person living in Great Britain. Americans love cars and big homes and hate public transportation. Constant warnings about climate change and the catastrophic consequences of American energy habits apparently aren’t enough to stop the temptation to consume. Although cars are becoming more efficient, Americans are driving more frequently and across longer distances.

    On the campaign trail, even as Democratic presidential candidates talk about clean energy, they don’t often discuss the need to use less. Bernie Sanders says climate change is a moral issue and Hillary Clinton promises to deploy half a billion solar panels by the end of her first term in office. But politicians seem wary of telling Americans they need to cut back.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/05/american-oil-consumption/482532/

    Reply
  69. Esther ‏@bubblefuture 10m10 minutes ago

    These folks were waiting for us at entrance to BP refinery. Hope they stay there. #BreakFreeMidwest #breakfree2016

    Reply
  70. USA

    The House science committee hates science and should be disbanded

    The House science committee has become a national embarrassment, and does more harm than good. Let’s get rid of it

    As if named by a Congressional Office of Dark Irony, The House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology really seems to hate science.

    Its current chair, Lamar Smith, R – Tex., is a climate change denier, seeing a conspiracy in the overwhelming scientific consensus on human-caused global warming, where the vast majority of experts in the world see only good science. In the last four or five Congressional sessions, the attacks on science made by the majority membership of HCSST have become increasingly unhinged and prolonged. Rather than acting on House Resolutions that advanced the aims of science, Lamar Smith assumed the role of small-government gadfly, irritating and exhausting scientific administrators like NSF Director France Córdova, over whose agencies HCSST had some purview.

    In 2013, Smith embroiled the Committee in a meddlesome and amateurish investigation of NSF’s peer review process, picking out individual grants that struck him as not worth the money. He demanded copies of dozens of funded grants to review, to cite out of context, and, of course, to mock: “[H]ow does the federal government justify spending over $220,000 to study animal photos in National Geographic? Or $50,000 to study lawsuits in Peru from 1600–1700?”
    http://www.salon.com/2016/05/14/the_house_science_committee_hates_science_and_should_be_disbanded/

    Reply
  71. 04:30 UTC

    Zack Labe ‏@ZLabe 58m58 minutes ago

    Anomalously low #Arctic sea ice extent continues with the 48th consecutive day of a new daily record minimum value

    Reply
  72. Reply
  73. Russia – Severe weather – Tornadoes

    From the FB vid link:
    Tornadic events in Russia are rare, reports from Russia are rare! but what about this incredible catch of Twin Waterspouts in Surgut, Russia last week! Thanks to Михаил Сабанцев for a great piece of Video footage!

    Reply
    • – Severe Weather Europe
      Cold weather is back across Europe, almost the whole continent was colder than average yesterday and so it should stay for the coming few days. Still a quite high risk for frost danger until Thursday, stay alert!

      Reply
  74. redskylite

     /  May 16, 2016

    India – counting on a heavier monsoon this tear to make up for previous poor years.

    “Two successive years of scanty showers and severe drought has caused acute distress in more than 250 of 600-odd districts across 11 states. About 330 million people have been affected. The change in rainfall pattern, partially due to climate change, has added to the crisis.”

    https://www.thethirdpole.net/2016/05/16/india-pins-hope-on-ample-rainfall-to-revive-growth/

    Reply
  75. redskylite

     /  May 16, 2016

    A new study warns of chaotic flooding by 2060, urges action on Climate Change and mitigation. . . . .

    Billion people face global flooding risk by 2060, charity warns.

    “A British aid charity is warning that by 2060 more than a billion people worldwide will live in cities at risk of catastrophic flooding as a result of climate change.

    A study by Christian Aid says the US, China and India are among the countries most threatened.

    It says the Indian cities of Kolkata and Mumbai will be most at risk.

    The eight most vulnerable cities on the list are all in Asia, followed by Miami in the US. ”

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-36299541

    Reply
  76. Spike

     /  May 16, 2016

    A small team of six field biologists from the Nature Conservation Foundation in India, have observed soaring sea surface temperatures and widespread coral bleaching this year. In every reef that the team has surveyed in 2016 so far, corals are turning white or pale. Moreover, the heat stress has already killed many corals in the region, the team said in a statement.

    Lakshadweep’s corals are not new to bleaching. In 1998 and 2010, similar El Niño events have had calamitous impacts on the reefs. While the Lakshadweep reefs recovered from the 1998 event, recovery following the 2010 event has been slower. And with the ongoing El Niño event, scientists are seriously concerned.

    https://news.mongabay.com/2016/05/indias-coral-reefs-experiencing-catastrophic-bleaching-heart-wrenching-scientist-says/

    Reply
    • redskylite

       /  May 16, 2016

      Spike – Thanks for sharing that detailed and sad report on the reefs off SW India, after the recent reports on the Australian and Florida reefs, we can clearly see trouble ahead, even if they do manage to recover somewhat in cooler times of La Niña, each temperature step upwards translates to more death and less recovery. We are leaving it until it nearly far too late. Many people are completely unaware of the situation and importance of coral reefs and won’t miss them until they’ve gone.

      Reply
  77. Spike

     /  May 16, 2016

    More on Russia’s wildfires

    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/mobile/news/article/massive-forest-fires-blaze-in-russias-siberia-and-far-east/569109.html

    Reply
  78. Kevin Jones

     /  May 16, 2016

    NASA GISS data shows Feb-April at 1.24C above 1951-1980 base period, which is 0.277C above decadal average from 1901-1930. 1.517C global surface temperature increase. Perilously close to the 1.5 target….

    Reply
  79. Colorado Bob

     /  May 16, 2016

    Before she denied climate change, Sarah Palin acknowledged and confronted it

    As governor in 2007, Palin issued Administrative Order No. 238 establishing the Alaska Climate Change Sub-Cabinet, which she tasked with developing and implementing an Alaska climate change strategy. This is some of what she stated in that order:

    “Scientific evidence shows many areas of Alaska are experiencing a warming trend. Many experts predict that Alaska, along with our northern latitude neighbors, will continue to warm at a faster pace than any other state, and the warming will continue for decades. Climate change is not just an environmental issue. It is also a social, cultural, and economic issue important to all Alaskans. As a result of this warming, coastal erosion, thawing permafrost, retreating sea ice, record forest fires, and other changes are affecting, and will continue to affect, the lifestyles and livelihoods of Alaskans. Alaska needs a strategy to identify and mitigate potential impacts of climate change and to guide its efforts in evaluating and addressing known or suspected causes of climate change.”

    https://www.adn.com/article/20160515/she-denied-climate-change-sarah-palin-acknowledged-and-confronted-it

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  May 16, 2016

      Sarah was on our side when I got arrested at the State Department in a Wrong Way on Climate protest? But that was so 2007! Leadership!

      Reply
  80. Colorado Bob

     /  May 16, 2016

    Black Carbon Contributes To Global Warming

    Particles produced from incomplete fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning go through a stage where they absorb more light, contributing to global warming.
    Read more from Asian Scientist Magazine at:

    Link

    Reply
    • – Thanks for that, Bob.

      – A reminder on other aspects of Incomplete combustion:
      “Incomplete”, or partially burned/combusted fossil fuels also means inordinate amounts of black carbon, and Volatile organic compounds are put into the atmosphere. Whether in gas, liquid, or solid, form they are an understated product, or byproduct. Not to mention the huge amount oxygen burned in the attempted combustion.

      Reply
  81. Colorado Bob

     /  May 16, 2016

    Massive Forest Fires Blaze in Russia’s Siberia and Far East

    Large-scale wildfires that erupted this week in Siberia are worsening, Russia’s local forest services have warned. ………………….. Some experts believe that the huge numbers given by the regional authorities are under-reported and that the forest fires could be even bigger, the Novaya Gazeta newspaper reported, citing the head of the Greenpeace forest program Alexei Yaroshenko.

    The Amur region is one of the areas previously thought to be underestimating the size of forest fires, Novaya Gazeta reported. Provincial regions are rarely able to cope with large-scale fires due to a lack of money, people and machinery, while the Emergency Ministry cannot provide relevant assistance without knowing the real extent of disaster, Yaroshenko said.

    Link

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  May 16, 2016

      Terra/MODIS
      2016/137
      05/16/2016
      02:40 UTC

      Link

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  May 16, 2016

        Terra/MODIS
        2016/137
        05/16/2016
        04:20 UTC

        Link

        Reply
        • That warm air slot is both associated with the wildfires and the big push for Arctic warming that will intensify through this week. Worth noting that there’s another warm air slot starting to develop over Siberia near the Yamal Peninsula which should start running north by around Wednesday. So look for wildfires to start flaring in that region as well.

          The big trough zone in Central Asia is a concern as is the one that keeps running down over Eastern North America. Any time a big moisture dump falls into these slots, there’s going to be trouble. We’re heading toward La Nina, so that record atmospheric moisture is looking for a way out. I’d keep a close eye on these two trough zones.

      • Colorado Bob

         /  May 16, 2016

        Aqua/MODIS
        2016/137
        05/16/2016
        04:30 UTC

        Link

        Reply
    • Scheduling tweet on this, thanks.

      Reply
  82. With almost 3,000 comments an article on April breaking global temperature record…
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/16/april-third-month-in-row-to-break-global-temperature-records

    I am encouraged that the article is getting so many hits and comments….And that we are seeing more Climate Change articles showing up in mainstream media outlets.
    I continue to hope and pray that human Climate Change news is gaining acceptance and is spreading in world consciousness…

    Reply
    • And the lead at Huffington Post this morning….
      CLIMATE IN CRISIS…..
      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hottest-april-2016-nasa_us_57394f3ae4b060aa781aa334

      Reply
    • Josh

       /  May 16, 2016

      The article was showing as the leading headline on the site (front page) for a while which might explain the comments. Unfortunately later in the day something else took its place as the headline article. Very nice to see something like that outside of the Environment section.

      IMO still not enough but let’s hope that sort of thing gets more common.

      Reply
      • Josh…you may be right. I guess I am just looking for “shreds of hope” in the ever increasing bad CC news. I just want to believe that some kind of global increased awareness will bring about “real” change..that may propel us into “real” change and action.

        Reply
        • Josh

           /  May 16, 2016

          Perhaps take that hope from the fact the article made it to the home page in the first place!

          I know what you mean, awareness is so key and so lacking – and yet there is always the potential for change.

  83. Abel Adamski

     /  May 16, 2016

    https://www.adn.com/article/20160515/she-denied-climate-change-sarah-palin-acknowledged-and-confronted-it

    As governor in 2007, Palin issued Administrative Order No. 238 establishing the Alaska Climate Change Sub-Cabinet, which she tasked with developing and implementing an Alaska climate change strategy. This is some of what she stated in that order:

    “Scientific evidence shows many areas of Alaska are experiencing a warming trend. Many experts predict that Alaska, along with our northern latitude neighbors, will continue to warm at a faster pace than any other state, and the warming will continue for decades. Climate change is not just an environmental issue. It is also a social, cultural, and economic issue important to all Alaskans. As a result of this warming, coastal erosion, thawing permafrost, retreating sea ice, record forest fires, and other changes are affecting, and will continue to affect, the lifestyles and livelihoods of Alaskans. Alaska needs a strategy to identify and mitigate potential impacts of climate change and to guide its efforts in evaluating and addressing known or suspected causes of climate change.”

    Palin’s 2007 climate change order directed her new subcabinet to, among other things, focus efforts on the following:

    “The prioritization of climate change research in Alaska; development of an action plan addressing climate change impacts on coastal and other vulnerable communities in Alaska; policies and measures to reduce the likelihood or magnitude of damage to infrastructure in Alaska from the effects of climate change; the potential benefits of Alaska participating in regional, national, and international climate policy agreements and greenhouse gas registries; the opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; and the opportunities for Alaska to participate in carbon-trading markets, including the offering of carbon sequestration.”

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  May 16, 2016

      Sorry CB had already posted, feel free to delete Robert

      Reply
  84. Abel Adamski

     /  May 16, 2016

    Only in OZ where their backers are as stupid as the LNP Governments.
    http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/electricity-boss-mistakenly-sends-climate-skeptic-handbook/7418740

    Endeavour’s environment policy describes climate change as “the single greatest environmental challenge to fulfilling our commitment to future generations.”

    However, in the email that accompanied The Skeptics Handbook, Mr Massy-Greene said “This short piece on global warming by science writer (and scientist) Jo Nova is the best piece I have seen on global warming, and helps to explain what has so far been a very confusing debate.”

    Look up Jo Nova on Desmogblog

    Reply
  85. Greg

     /  May 16, 2016

    A success story in Ethiopia in fighting drought and soil erosion in the midst of an historic drought.
    http://www.businessinsider.com/ethiopia-is-experiencing-one-of-the-worst-droughts-in-50-years-2016-5?r=UK&IR=T

    Reply
  86. India to ‘divert rivers’ to tackle drought

    Water Resources Minister Uma Bharti said transferring water, including from major rivers like the Brahmaputra and the Ganges, to drought-prone areas is now her government’s top priority.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-36299778

    Reply
  87. In red sea has been a heat wave but for 2 days last week were 90 f but its been hellishly humid and 108-112F since end of April. not normal. I’ve noticed changes since the past 2 years where it is much hotter, much longer and humid where before it was very dry and hot. I’m worried about the reefs too.

    Reply
  88. Anthony Sagliani ‏@anthonywx 4h4 hours ago

    Very strong subtropical high across Atlantic. Pressure anomalies on the order of +3 to +4 standard deviations.

    Reply
  89. – China – USA – Lobster commerce.

    China killed thousands of Maine jobs. Now it’s eating up the state’s lobsters.
    A tiny American town is staking its future on Chinese foodies.

    Scooping up a bounty of lobster on Little Cranberry Island

    The rise of China’s middle class has coincided with a boom in Maine’s lobster population, resulting in a voracious new market for the crustacean.

    LITTLE CRANBERRY ISLAND, MAINE — The long journey from this remote island of free-spirited fishermen to the most populous country in the world began, as it does most mornings, at just about sunrise. Bruce Fernald, a sixth-generation fisherman, loaded his 38-foot fiberglass boat with half a ton of bait and set out in search of Maine’s famed crustacean: the lobster.

    One by one, Fernald checked the 800 traps he had placed along 30 square miles at the bottom of the Gulf of Maine. He quickly hauled each wire cage onto his boat, reached a gloved hand inside and plucked out the lobster lurking within. The young ones, the breeders and the crusty old ones were thrown back into the water. The rest were dropped into a saltwater tank to keep them alive and energetic on their 7,000-mile trip to China.

    “Just do everything you can to not stress them out,” Fernald, 64, said of his cargo. “The less stressed they are, the more healthy they’ll be, just like people.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/05/15/this-tiny-american-town-is-staking-its-future-on-chinese-foodies/?tid=sm_fb

    Reply
  90. – Our precious bees.
    Ps Almonds crops are bee dependent. California agri-business sells tons of water intensive almonds to China for $$$.

    Reply
  91. – Dahr Jamail’s latest article:

    Navy Allowed to Kill or Injure Nearly 12 Million Whales, Dolphins, Other Marine Mammals in Pacific
    Monday, 16 May 2016

    What if you were told the US Navy is legally permitted to harass, injure or kill nearly 12 million whales, dolphins, porpoises, sea lions and seals across the North Pacific Ocean over a five-year period?

    It is true, and over one-quarter of every tax dollar you pay is helping to fund it.

    A multistate, international citizen watchdog group called the West Coast Action Alliance (WCAA), tabulated numbers that came straight from the Navy’s Northwest Training and Testing EIS (environmental impact statement) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Letters of Authorization for incidental “takes” of marine mammals issued by NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service.

    http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/36037-the-us-navy-s-mass-destruction-of-marine-life

    Reply
  92. Global Warming to Spur More Fires in Alaska, in Turn Causing More Warming

    Dangerous cycle includes more tundra blazes and threats to the boreal forests, as well as the people of Alaska, new research shows.

    “We know some of these areas haven’t burned in thousands of years,” said University of Montana fire ecology researcher Philip Higuera, who led the study along with Adam Young, an affiliate scientist at the University of Montana.

    Across the state’s North Slope, above the Arctic Circle, the shift is “far outside the range of natural variability we’ve seen in the last 6,000 to 32,000 years,” Higuera said.
    http://insideclimatenews.org/news/16052016/global-warming-spur-wildfires-alaska-climate-change-permafrost-tundra

    Reply
  93. Air pollution doesn’t just make breathing harder for humans. In the Pacific, fish are choking, too.

    In the Pacific Ocean, billions of tiny creatures are literally eating our air pollution.

    The pollution starts out as an enormous cloud generated by industries in east Asia near Japan, China, the Koreas and Russia. For decades it has formed and floated into the coastal Pacific, where currents carry it thousands of miles away in a pattern that flows around Hawaii into the warm water tropics. That’s where phytoplankton go to town on the excess iron and nitrogen in the pollution.

    Normally, dining tropical phytoplankton — the foundation of a food web on which all life there depends — are good because the activity actually creates oxygen near the water’s surface, as a new study released Monday explains. But as they gorge themselves on excess nutrients, they create organic matter that sinks into the deeper ocean and is feasted on by microscopic bacteria. That’s bad because the latter sucks away oxygen…

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/05/16/air-pollution-doesnt-just-make-breathing-harder-for-humans-in-the-pacific-fish-are-choking-too/

    Reply
  94. redskylite

     /  May 16, 2016

    PDO Index staying strongly positive and record high for April at +2.62

    http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

    Reply
    • Yeah, we’re heading toward La Nina, but the broader context points toward less global heat being absorbed by the world ocean system.

      Reply
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