Siberian Heatwave Wrecks Sea Ice as Greenland High Settles In

We’ve never seen Arctic sea ice extents that are as low as they are now in early June. And with Arctic heatwaves, warm winds, warm storms, and a Greenland High all settling in, something had better change soon or otherwise the ice cap over the northern Polar Ocean is basically screwed.

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On the shores of the Arctic Ocean’s East Siberian Sea (ESS), near the town of Logashinko, temperatures today are expected to rise to near 80 degrees Fahrenheit. Readings that are about 40 to 50 degrees (F) above normal for this near-polar region during this time of year.

image

(Welcome to increasingly ludicrous climates. Temperatures near 80 F at Logashinko, Russia are at least 40 degrees F above average for this time of year. A place well north of the Arctic Circle, but whose temperatures are predicted today to match those of St. Martin Island in the tropics. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

We would have never expected temperatures to have risen so high near typically frozen Logashinko during early June sans the heating effect of atmospheric CO2 levels that have this year peaked near 407.5 parts per million. The highest levels seen on Earth in about 15 million years. These scorching polar temperatures were driven north by a powerful high amplitude ridge in the Jet Stream that has dominated Eastern Russia for much of 2016 Spring. This expansive ridge enabled extreme wildfires popping up all over the region even as it today drives 80 degree weather all the way to Arctic Ocean shores — enforcing a regime of rapid sea ice melt over the East Siberian Sea.

ESS, Laptev Get Ripped Up

As the warm winds drive northward across ice-clogged Arctic Ocean waters, temperatures rapidly fall into 35 to 41 degree (F) ranges. And though that may sound cool to the casual observer, for the East Siberian Sea zone during early June, that’s scorching hot — topping out at more than 10 degrees above average for some areas. A pretty extreme variation for late Spring when temperatures over the Arctic Ocean only typically depart from average by about 3 or 4 degrees at most.

East Siberian Sea Melting

(The Laptev and East Siberian Sea Ice is getting ripped up by extreme Arctic warmth. The blue tint to ice in the above image indicates melt ponds, while dark blue indicates open water. Zooming in closer reveals the brown flush of warm waters issuing from heated Siberian rivers. Image source: LANCE MODIS.)

All across this Arctic Ocean region, melt ponds and widening polynyas now abound in the ridiculously warm airs. In the satellite shot above, the tell-tale bluish tint of the ice reveals a plethora of these ponds expanding northward through the ESS and on toward the pole. A flush of hot water running into the Arctic Ocean from East Siberia’s rivers is melting the near shore ice. And a giant 80 mile wide gap of open water has now been torn into the ice of the Laptev Sea.

Record Extent Lows Continue to Worsen

The sudden Arctic heatwave and rapid related melt involvement of the ESS and Laptev is just the most recent melt spike in a polar ocean that sees ice extent levels hitting new record lows with each passing day. As of June 2nd, the expanse of Arctic Sea ice only measured 10.37 million square kilometers. This is about 430,000 square kilometers below the previous daily record low set just last year and fully ten days ahead of the record sea ice melt year of 2012.

Arctic sea ice extent new record lows

(Arctic sea ice extent record lows continue for this time of year and threaten to plunge deeply below the 2012 line in coming days. Image source: JAXA.)

A coverage of sea ice that is now 42 days and 2.1 million square kilometers of sea ice loss ahead of an average melt year during the 1980s.

Here Comes the Greenland High

Extreme heat building into the Siberian side of the Arctic and record low sea ice extent measures are today being joined by yet another disturbing Arctic feature. For as of yesterday, a strong ridge of high pressure began to form over Greenland, the Canadian Archipelago and Iceland.

Greenland highs tend to increase temperatures over the enormous glaciers of that frozen island even as the clockwise circulation pattern of an anticyclone tends to shove sea ice out into the Barents and North Atlantic. The dominance of a Greenland High during both 2012 and 2007 is thought to have heavily influenced record end season sea ice melts during those years as well as the extreme Greenland surface melt spike during 2012.

image

(A high pressure ridge emerging over Greenland, Iceland and the Canadian Archipelago today is expected to strengthen this week — generating a high pressure gradient between warm storms developing over the Arctic Ocean and winds that threaten to increase the rate of ice transport out of the High Arctic and into regions of warmer water. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

This week’s predicted ridge formation is not expected to bring with it a severe surface melt of Greenland. However, the clockwise winds driving sea ice transport may serve as yet one more heavy blow to the already greatly weakened ocean ice. Pressures later this week are expected to rise to 1040 mb over Greenland. And strong winds running between powerful warm storms expected to form in the Kara and Central Arctic are predicted to rise to near gale force north of Greenland — generating a risk of a very vigorous ice loss from the near polar zone as floes are driven into warm Barents and North Atlantic waters.

In context, the combined severe record sea ice lows and emerging weather conditions represent a seriously bad state for Arctic sea ice. One with a high risk of continued further extreme losses and new daily record lows for at least the next seven days.

Links:

Earth Nullschool

LANCE MODIS

JAXA

Arctic Sea Ice Graphs

The Arctic Ice Blog

Hat tip to Greg

Hat tip to Cate

Hat tip to DT Lange

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152 Comments

  1. climatehawk1

     /  June 3, 2016

    Tweeted.

    Reply
  2. Ailsa

     /  June 3, 2016

    Oh for goodness sake people, get out and shout about this…! I’ve been away from the computer for the last week, and come back and RS and all of you are here plugged into this hidden but fast-moving catastrophe. Bless you all for reading and commenting and caring.

    Reply
  3. Cate

     /  June 3, 2016

    Another stunning, sobering piece. I’m watching this melt season with heart in mouth.

    In other news: aw shucks, Robert! I just read your very kind words in our discussion on what’s up with Canada in the previous thread. Here’s the thing—you make this space. You make it possible for us to speak our minds. You open it up to anyone–every one of us here, who feels they have something worth contributing—to participate in what may be one of the best internet discussion forums anywhere on any subject. I love how everyone just hangs out here and speaks their mind, and how all our voices are different, but how we’re all singing the same song, as it were. It’s as refreshing as music, and yes there’s plenty of that too, and always apropos, thanks to CB.

    This place is awesome, is all, and you are to be thanked for that.
    😀

    Reply
    • June

       /  June 4, 2016

      You are so right Cate. Robert and all the commenters here have made this into more than just a source of great information. It’s a community of thoughtful people, a place where we can recharge our batteries to continue the good climate fight!

      Reply
    • Cheers, Cate. Just noticed in my nightly Arctic reanalysis that we are going to have southerly winds in the range of 50 mph running out from the CAA over the next two days. Looks like another big polynya is going to open up there. That’s a terrifying amount of open water in the High Arctic for early June. Laptev, Beaufort, N CAA soon to all be involved.

      Reply
    • I second that Cate!

      Reply
    • Loni

       /  June 5, 2016

      Very well put, Cate, my sentiments exactly. I think that this is the best fox hole to have jumped into……..and I wish I were kidding.

      Reply
  4. Jay M

     /  June 3, 2016

    Looks like an oil train is burning near Mosier, OR in the Columbia River gorge.
    Check Oregonlive site.

    Reply
  5. Is it just me, or is Everything off the charts? Is there any way to tell if the apparent acceleration of the acceleration accelerating is real or just an effect of how I read the news?

    Does anyone really know just how bad such an abrupt Blue Water Event would be?

    (I ask these questions honestly, not the least bit facetiously.)

    Reply
    • Pretty bad. The albedo difference accounts for a tremendous extra input of energy into the earth system, focussed in both time and space. I can’t remember offhand the W/m^2 average forcing change, it’s some years since I finialised my conclusions on all this, but I would expect to see rapid destabilisation of the system thereafter.

      Reply
    • It’s not a stable system. It plays havok with NH weather, messes with growing seasons, and enhances rate of GIS melt. That said, it’s not so much a switch to severely destabilized climates but a transition. A blue ocean event one year would continue the trend we are seeing now. Sea ice would continue to decline for a time after, with ice free conditions generally taking up a greater part of the year until GIS response sets up a new, less stable and predictable sea ice regime. Part of the overall transition to rapid ice sheet response or phase 2 climate change.

      Reply
    • marcel_g

       /  June 4, 2016

      Phillip, you could get a lot of background at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum,which has a lot of smart discussion. That might be a lot of info to wade through, though, and I’d summarize their current state as still being debated. They all agree there’s going to be a summer blue sea event, but they’re debating over whether it’s going to be a fast flip to a new state transition or if it’s going to be a more linear slow transition.

      There is also a whole forum for consequences there, so that might be the place to check / ask. But i think consequences of Arctic blue sea will be more or amplification of what we’re already seeing: droughts and floods and heatwaves and fires in temperate zones, and longer term, significantly accelerated Greenland ice sheet melt.

      Reply
      • We’re in the context of that transition now. The energy balance in the Arctic is moving and it will continue to move so long as we add heat to the Earth System. The question is how fast and can we get a good grasp of what to expect in the short, medium, and long term.

        In the short term, the big factors, in my view, are Jet Stream weakening, related polar amplification, related weather change, Arctic Ocean warming due to albedo loss, and what geophysical systems that Arctic Ocean warming impacts and to what degree (GIS melt and Arctic Ocean carbon cycle feedbacks).

        Reply
  6. Cate

     /  June 3, 2016

    Re our previous discussion on the Canadian problem, a commentary by Bob McDonald, CBC’s best-known and highly-respected science reporter in our mainstream media:

    >>>>A new report by the Renewable Energy Policy Network has found that, for the first time, worldwide investments in alternative energy have exceeded investments in new fossil fuel projects… But Canada is still behind the major players.

    (We’re doing okay in hydro, not so well in solar, wind, geothermal, etc. We have plenty of untapped natural energy and we have the skills and the expertise to develop green energy, so why aren’t we?)

    Canada is in an odd position because we are an oil-producing country. Our fossil fuel resources are huge and in demand by countries like China. So, it is hard to give up the golden goose when it is such a big driver of the economy. But we could still be increasing our investments in renewables at the same time, so that when the popularity of fossil fuels diminishes, which it eventually will, we will not only be energy self-sufficient, but we could also have alternative energy products that would be exportable in that expanding market.<<<<

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/renewable-energy-investment-1.3614477

    Reply
    • Shawn Redmond

       /  June 4, 2016

      I went off grid ten tears ago with 1.5kw solar and 1kw wind. Had to sell a year ago, personal problems. Built a new off grid 5.4kw solar no wind. Will never go back to the grid so long as I can manage looking after the system (not much effort). No wind this time because in the first one the math said that the wind in my location would give enough power to supply my requirements with 1kw turbine. Apparently mother nature took a different math class. Don’t wait for the world to change, CHANG IT YOURSELF! This blog is about making a difference any way possible. Do Robert a favour and change anything you can, we are running out of time. It sucks that so much of Roberts time seems to be spent policing the idiots that plague a site that is dedicated to spreading the truth. Robert seems to be of incorruptible fibre and we have to thank our individual deities for this. Live long and prosper.

      Reply
      • So what is your biggest load?
        Do you have a well pump?
        What are you using for batteries, how big is your battery bank?
        Have you thought about solar thermal…. hot water collectors?
        Are you heating your home and water with wood?

        Reply
      • Shawn Redmond

         /  June 4, 2016

        Heating water with propane on demand water heater. Cook with gas as well and the clothes dryer. Yes there is a submersible pump in a drilled well. We also have a dish washer and the fridge has an ice maker. I have 8 six volt deep cycle solar lead acid 200 amp hour batteries. The inverter is a Outback Gs8048, 8kw 240ac out of the box.We heat with wood, last winter we used 2 cords of wood. The house is r34 walls done in high density foam and r50 blown in ceiling. Solar thermal is not cost effective here. The people who have it can’t get enough in the winter unless over sizing the system and then in the summer their building swimming pools and green house to take away the heat. We use about 700 litres of propane a year.The house is one level on a slab also foamed underneath 1350 square feet.

        Reply
      • Scott

         /  June 4, 2016

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_house

        It’s possible to build a new Passivhaus for about 10-15 percent more cost than a code-minimum home. The fact that Passivhaus standards are not the code minimum is shameful. A modest solar array can power a Passivhaus and a PHEV or an EV, resulting in a carbon negative lifestyle for all of us. The technology is available today, not at some too-late point in the future.

        Shawn has shown not only can it be done, but it is done. I’m starting construction on a Passivhaus in Minnesota in about two years, and should be carbon neutral or even carbon negative when it’s finished and we’ve moved in (the house should send more electricity into the grid than we take out, even after powering our electric vehicle).

        Reply
      • Building standards wrt energy efficiency are pretty shameful/laughable IMO. I get incredibly frustrated seeing new homes popping up with no eaves, badly oriented windows and surprise, surprise, massive AC units on the roof (instead of solar panels).

        Best decision we ever made was building a passive solar strawbale house – incredibly comfortable and no energy costs. Meanwhile the nearby farmers burn their fields of “useless” straw and the vast majority of new houses are using bricks.

        Reply
    • The Norway model. This is probably a good sell for the Canadian public.

      Reply
      • Shawn Redmond

         /  June 4, 2016

        Yes there is a well pump. We cook and heat water with propane about 700 litres per year.2 cords of wood to heat a single story on slab 1350 square foot home. 8 deep cycle solar batteries giving 48vdc. 8kw inverter 240vac to run the house, dishwasher, ice maker and all. t

        Reply
        • So Shawn here gives a good example of what can be achieved by a person going at it on their own and using limited resources. He’s both optimized his house for energy efficiency and taken a bare knuckle approach to adding renewable energy systems. He’s not going the solar city route and paying an arm and a leg. He’s leveraging the low cost of solar and using easy to access storage while reducing his energy footprint to make it work for him. Anyone who owns their own home and property can do something similar.

          Shawn has probably cut his carbon emissions from electricity generation and heating by 90 percent. With a little help from the government with affordable electric heaters are biofuel propane, he could go the rest of the way. Shawn is a good example of what getting serious means. But we all have different circumstances and we all need to help each other get to the same place together. We need to help people realize that they have these options and we need to inspire them to take the kinds of steps that Shawn and others here have. We need to turn it from individual effort to mass effort and mass effect. Shawn is a good example of what can be done, so now let’s put systems in place — information, resources, choices, opportunities — so we can get it done for everyone.

          Shawn — it might help if you told the story of how you did this. You’ve given a good summary of what you’ve done, but I think it might help if we understood a little about your circumstances. Wili, Ryan, and others here have done something similar. It would be great if everyone could jump in and tell how they’ve tried to help out on their own, what challenges they faced, and how additional choices and social, public, and systemic supports might have helped.

      • Shawn Redmond

         /  June 4, 2016

        Sorry about the repeat I thought I lost the first one.

        Reply
      • Shawn Redmond

         /  June 5, 2016

        Robert that’s thirty-five years of stumbling around in the dark without taking notes! and I’m not real fast with a computer. I only opened a Facebook account a few weeks back so I could give you and the others here the thumbs up.

        Reply
    • marcel_g

       /  June 4, 2016

      Cate, I think a lot of the problem with Canadians is the same as the problem with people everywhere, which is that change is hard, even being psychologically painful. (I think David Roberts did a great explainer of this when he was at Grist)

      And it’s an inertia problem, most people tend to keep going the way they’re going. And very few people feel like they have their shit together and they’re just trying to get by. And the people who do feel like they have their shit together are usually those blowhards who don’t question anything anyway, so they’re no help. We’re all worried about just remembering to do all the day to day things to do with paying the bills and raising kids etc, so tacking on “beating climate change” causes extra stress. My natural tendency is to be like Homer and “crawl under a big pile of coats and hope it all gets better”

      I have this too, I’m sure there’s more I could do, I should probably quit my art career and focus more on this, but it’s really hard to take that step. For now I’m trying to sell more paintings so I can afford to buy an electric car.

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  June 4, 2016

        marcel, I hear you, and I agree, it’s hard to change and there is huge inertia. I’m the same!

        Which is why we need help.

        Which is where leadership comes in, and why political leadership on the issue is vital. Our politicians have to do what we are unready, unwilling or unable to do. On this issue, they must be proactive, not reactive.

        Our govts need to make sensible, affordable green energy solutions a priority, in every community and home. Living in the UK, I was amazed to see all the (govt-rebated) solar panels on roofs—in cloudy, cool Scotland!—and the wind farms popping up everywhere, simply as the sensible policy of a forward-looking govt that was environmentally responsible. This and much more can be done in Canada, but so far, when it comes to making simple solutions to implement Paris, our govts have done nothing, and what noises they do make (pipelines can pay for renewables) are very worrisome.

        And I wish you tons of sales of your paintings—your work is cool and quirky and absolutely delightful.😀

        Reply
  7. redskylite

     /  June 4, 2016

    Thanks again for the early warning and news of what’s happening up in the Arctic. Hints and clues are reported daily, yet some in power want to sweep it all under the table, out of sight out of mind, ignoring what is slowly creeping up on us.

    Poor folks working in fields in increasingly hotter climate are suffering for one. I guess Lamar Smith and Anthony Watts won’t suffer that fate.

    Pictures Show the Mysterious Disease That’s Killing Field Workers.

    In one village we went to, there were 120-some-odd widows—the husbands had all died of CKDnT. They all work much harder, and some of them were starting to get sick.

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/06/chronic-kidney-disease-india-farmers-health-climate-change/

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  June 4, 2016

      http://www.science20.com/news_articles/mysterious_kidney_disease_blamed_on_global_warming-157532

      Mysterious Kidney Disease Blamed On Global Warming
      By News Staff | October 17th 2015 08:30 AM

      Mesoamerican Nephropathy, a mysterious kidney disease that has killed over 20,000 people in Central America, most of them sugar cane workers, may be caused by chronic, severe dehydration linked to global climate change, according to a new study by Richard J. Johnson, MD, of the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus.

      The Mesoamerican Nephropathy epidemic was first described in 2002. It’s most prevalent among manual laborers on sugar cane plantations in the hotter, lower altitudes of Central America’s Pacific coast. The disease has also been reported among farmworkers, miners, fishermen and construction and transportation workers in the region.

      Speculation abounds about what may be causing it, including exposure to heavy metals, pesticides and other toxic chemicals. But Johnson believes the actual culprit is chronic recurrent dehydration caused by climate change.

      “This could be the first epidemic directly caused by global warming,” said Johnson, professor of medicine at the University of Colorado School of Medicine. “Some districts of Nicaragua have been called the `land of widows’ due to the high mortality rates occurring among the male workers from chronic kidney disease.”

      His research team studied sugar cane workers in Nicaragua and El Salvador. They found that the laborers routinely worked in conditions exceeding the recommended heat standards of the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). And even though some of them drank up to one to two liters per hour, the researchers found they still suffered serious dehydration on a daily basis.

      One of the major side-effects of this dehydration was hyperuricemia or excess uric acid levels in the blood. In one study, sugar cane workers in El Salvador had uric acid levels of 6.6 mg per deciliter in the morning which increased to 7.2 mg in the afternoon. And 21 of 23 people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) had hyperuricemia.

      Reply
  8. BJD

     /  June 4, 2016

    This might belong on another thread, but I note that new comment threads seem to emerge with each new article. But to follow upon the rain in Australia:

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queenslands-wild-weather-live-news-from-around-the-state-20160603-gpbhxh.html

    In Burpengary, 75 millimetres of rain fell in one hour at Burpengary, 69 millimetres at Brisbane City and 63 millimetres at Everton Hills.
    Flash flooding has thrown roads across the south-east into chaos and is threatening some homes and businesses as well.
    Two cars were swept away at Toombul Shopping Centre, with no one inside and the Bruce Highway was cut northbound at Carseldine.
    A QFES spokeswoman said crews had been called to several flooded cars but hadn’t had to rescue anyone.

    75millimetres is equal to three inches. Brisbane’s average rainfall for the whole month of June is usually only 70mm. Also to put things in perspective is the scale of this winter weather system:

    http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/bureau-of-meteorology-predicts-east-coast-of-australia-to-be-hit-with-wild-weather-this-weekend/news-story/610af12708436436b97eda97e7d4e815
    To put this storm in context, it stretches more than 2000kms and the entire NSW coast has been put on flood watch. Meteorologists believe it’s the first mass warning of its kind in 30 years.

    BoM senior meteorologist Adam Morgan says it’s unusual to see an east coast low track southward.
    “We’ve got forecasters in NSW that can’t remember in 30 years having a flood watch out for the entire NSW coast,” he said.
    “Everywhere is a bit of a risk, but probably the far north and the far south coasts tomorrow in terms of rain are the bigger risks for those higher-end falls,” Mr Morgan said.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/03/queensland-and-nsw-braced-for-gales-and-up-to-300mm-of-rainfall

    More than 220mm of rain was dumped by Saturday morning at Upper Springbook, in the Gold Coast hinterland. Across the NSW border at Tomewin 146mm fell.

    But I’m sure it’s nothing to worry about, just another bit of anomalous weather…

    Reply
    • Scheduling tweet on this, thanks.

      Reply
    • redskylite

       /  June 4, 2016

      Thanks for that, Queenslanders take care . .

      * Move your car under cover or away from trees.
      * Secure loose outdoor items.
      * Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
      * Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
      * Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it’s flooded, forget it.
      * Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
      * Surf Life Saving Australia recommends that you stay out of the water and stay well away from surf-exposed areas.
      * Check your property regularly for erosion or inundation by sea water, and if necessary raise goods and electrical items.

      http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20032.html

      Reply
    • Thanks for this BJD. Working on Queensland and what is basically a global flood coverage this weekend. Lots of context to include that the media is missing.

      Reply
    • Reply
    • Keith Antonysen

       /  June 4, 2016

      The storm front is meant to move all the way to Tasmania; about 2 and a half thousand kilometres South. High winds are not forecast but almost a months quota of rain is expected on the East Coast over two days.

      Reply
    • phil s

       /  June 4, 2016

      According to our Minister assisting the Deputy Prime Minister this is no anomaly.
      A few weeks ago, I spent an hour or so with the honourable Keith Pitt and the future local member, illustrating the great work that our local (SE Queensland) growers co-op is involved in, and the issues that our farmers face.
      When I mentioned that one of the biggest challenges identified by the most experienced growers was the increasingly unpredictable seasons, I could see their eyes begin to glaze over.
      Two degrees C above average in April, 3 degrees in May, rainfall at 35% of average for the last 4 months locally. Globally, 7 months of consecutive record breaking anomalies. They were looking for a distraction.
      By the time I pointed out evapotranspiration rates and soil moisture content, they were becoming increasingly uncomfortable.
      Corn ripening in August (!), farmers planting summer and winter crops at the same time. It was all too much for the honourable minister to endure. He interjected to remind me that it will rain, and it will get cold.
      Some people just don’t want to know. They resolutely refuse to see the trends. Needless to say, when the cameras rolled, I wasn’t invited to contribute.

      First time I ever walked away from the co-op with a bad taste in my mouth…

      Reply
      • Brings to mind the Governor of Florida saying there is no sea level rise in Miami.. If he admits that it’s happening, is there anything he can do to stop it or even mitigate it? The destruction of the infrastructure of Miami by sea level is baked into the cake at this point.. it is just a question of when. By acknowledging the problem today he will tank the economy and the real estate market for his state and most importantly he will have squandered his “political capital”…. keep the status quo and the “game in play” for as long a possible…

        I am in the process of reading “Panic at the Pumps, The Energy Crisis that Transformed American Politics in the 1970” by Meg Jacobs. I remember those times (the gas lines and the riots)… and I am beginning to see very similar behavior from the public at large with respect to the need to curtail green house gas emissions, the burning of fossil fuels and resulting significant changes to life styles.

        Reply
        • If he acknowledges the problem now, then the state and the people of Florida can work to solve it. If not for the infrastructure of Miami, then for its people. If not for the city, then for the state itself. The notion that acknowledging a problem in its early stages makes it worse is nonsense. Failure to acknowledge and respond makes the problem vastly worse in the end.

          Even from Miami’s point of view, there are options — how long is it worth fighting the tide, what level of sea rise is survivable, at what level does the city need to plan for either an inland move or for a diaspora. For real estate, what time horizons become practical? And for the state and nation, what locations are practical for the movement of Miami’s people? If you acknowledge the problem early and work to contain it, then it shrinks, it becomes more manageable.

          In the end, it’s not just about one Miami, it’s about preventing what is now probably the equivalent of 15-20 Miamis for the US East and Gulf Coasts over the next 30-200 years from becoming a hundred Miamis or a thousand. For what happens if you ignore the initially painful probable future loss of Miami is that you basically end up losing most of Florida itself.

          In this way, climate change can probably be aptly compared to cancer. Catch it early enough and it’s a minor nuasance dealing with it. Catch it later and it really wrecks your life for a while, but it’s survivable. Delay further and it will almost certainly take you out. We’re in the stage where it’s no longer an unpleasant nuasance and there are tough choices, hard consequences. But because this allegory is imperfect, failure to respond will continue to increase the level of difficulty for a while before you hit the high likelihood that there’s no way out threshold.

          In the end, we can probably save Florida. But, right now, Miami either needs to figure out how to run a city that will be below sea level in 30-60 years and that sits on permeable limestone or figure out a way to manage a staged retreat. The Dutch have figured out how to fight off a rising sea for some time, and their experience may save some cities during this Century, for example. But Miami is a tough challenge even for the Dutch.

          In any case, if Florida recognizes the problem and acts now, it can reduce the economic damage that comes from losing Miami and it can possibly extend Miami’s lifespan as a city — if it chooses to. Florida can harden itself for the movements of people that will inevitably come. Florida can come up with novel ways to manage real estate risk and decide which properties to defend and which to withdraw. Florida can influence national policy and state policy to rapidly reduce carbon emissions and to increase the likelihood that Florida will have a future.

          Florida resting on its laurels is basically a sitting duck.

  9. Great post, Robert. Over at the Sea Ice forums we’re watching this play out with equal measures of horror and fascination. My expectation is, the state of the Arctic may become a major feature in the dialog which takes place later on during the US political campaign season. I expect we will hit a new sea ice extent minimum beating 2012 right about 6 weeks before the election.

    Reply
    • Cheers, Jeff. Horror and fascination is a good way to describe it. My POV is one of attempting to manage shock. Not only is the pole melting but the weather in numerous regions is destabilized. It’s like a disaster movie playing out in real life and it’s getting tough to take it all in.

      Reply
  10. Penny Laskey

     /  June 4, 2016

    G’day- another Aussie thanking you very much Robert and all the great posters.
    This is OT but has I think the same underlying cause as anthropogenic climate change- neoliberalism- the poor get screwed.

    The death rate for Americans has risen, according to a report released today by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC’s) National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS).

    Based on provisional estimates for 2015, the crude death rate for all causes was 841.9 per 100,000 population, up from a rate of 823.6 per 100,000 in 2014. The age-adjusted death rate for all causes was also higher in 2015 than in 2014 (729.5 vs 723.2).

    In an interview with Medscape Medical News, Farida Ahmad, NCHS mortality surveillance lead, said the increase in mortality is “unusual but the data are preliminary so I take it with a ‘grain of salt.’ And until 2016-1017, we really won’t know if it’s a trend that is going to continue.”

    The latest data are part of the Vital Statistics Rapid Release program, which provides access to the “timeliest vital statistics for public health surveillance,” the CDC says.

    Among the specific causes of death included in the latest report, increases between 2014 and 2015 in both crude and age-adjusted death rates were observed for Alzheimer’s disease, chronic liver disease and cirrhosis, chronic lower respiratory diseases, hypertension, Parkinson’s disease, septicemia, and stroke.

    Crude and age-adjusted death rates also increased between 2014 and 2015 for homicide, firearm-related injury, suicide, and unintentional injury (12-month period ending with the third quarter of 2015), and drug overdose (12-month period ending with the second quarter of 2015).

    Age-adjusted Death Rates (per 100,000) 2015 vs 2014

    Cause of Death 2015 vs 2014
    Alzheimer’s disease 29.4 vs 25.4
    Liver disease/cirrhosis 10.8 vs 10.4
    Chronic respiratory disease 41.3 vs 40.4
    Hypertension 8.5 vs 8.2
    Parkinson’s disease 7.7 vs 7.4
    Septicemia 10.9 vs 10.7
    Stroke 37.4 vs 36.4
    Homicide 5.5 vs 5.1
    Firearm-related injury 10.9 vs 10.3
    Suicide 13.1 vs 12.7
    Unintentional injury 42.0 vs 39.9
    Drug overdose 15.2 vs 14.1

    Again, thank you,

    Reply
  11. Reply
  12. – An ‘atmospheric’ river as it recycles itself on the terra firma of Texas GOP USA.

    Jonathan Erdman ‏@wxjerdman 5h5 hours ago

    #Flooding at Lake Cisco, Texas, and a washed-out section of highway 6. (Credit: Ronnie Beckett via @KTABTV)

    Reply
  13. PlazaRed

     /  June 4, 2016

    Good see an article like this which I can pass on to several people who still see that there is no global problem with warming etc.

    Meanwhile:-
    “Chile is producing so much solar power it has to give it away.”
    Here is the link to the article:-

    http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/chile-is-producing-so-much-solar-power-it-has-to-give-it-away/ar-BBtOT83?li=BBoPOOl

    Reply
  14. – It’s been a busy day here in PDX. I couldn’t post anything after a wide but very short internet outage. Had log out of all Word Press links — then log back in to be able to talk to RS. Bust at the rooming house keeping it less than hot.
    The Bakken bombtrain derailment and fire in the Columbia Gorge had my adrenaline up.
    Lots of retweets with a note attached:
    RIDE THE #UnionPacific #Bakken #BombTrains #GOP rides for free.

    Reply
  15. PDX due to have 100-102 F temps this weekend.
    Urban heat island effect will add to discomfort. But am most worried about snowmelt, fuel loads for fires, the permafrost, and the wild creatures that will be knocked for a loop.

    Reply
  16. danabanana

     /  June 4, 2016

    “otherwise the ice cap over the northern Polar Ocean is basically screwed.”

    It is screwed. There are no ifs, you know this. It is a mathematical certainty and you have done the numbers yourself. Most of what we can do involves observing in awe the speed at which changes are occurring although I wish at times I lived in ignorance and denial oblivious of it all, be able to go a dopamine induced shopping frenzy and post it all on Instagram =/

    The system is in transition towards a new balance and short of having a go at GE (which I don’t advocate btw) the ASI is pretty much done for. One interesting consequence of the ice demise is that people from lower latitudes, like other animal species, are travelling there more often and this ‘migration’ (for lack of a better name) will only increase as the ice keeps shrinking.

    Reply
    • Dana —

      Weather still matters. So, no, it’s not mathematically certain that we’ll have a blue ocean event this year. That said, there is now a high likelihood that we will see a new record for end of melt season and there is a possibility that we will hit some or all of the thresholds of a blue ocean event given the current trends, the amount of heat in the world ocean, and the overall situation in the Arctic.

      When dealing with the complexities of climate and weather, it is unhelpful to think in terms of absolutes. Climate follows trends but it varies wildly along that trend path. Large, identifiable factors do drive the trend, but smaller, less identifiable factors generate chaotic variance. Worsening our ability to predict is the fact that adding stress to the climate system increases the range of variance of an already chaotic system. You need to understand these fundamental limitations before you wade into the deep waters of prediction. Otherwise, a human riled nature will throw you for a ride and make you look rather foolish.

      So we don’t jump to conclusions here. We identify risk and potential. We can look to the horizon and say, for example, that a big rogue wave is gathering. But we don’t know now that it will form fully and we don’t know when and where it will break. The conditions are terrible, the factors are bad, and there is high risk of a difficult or unfortunate outcome. But we must remain nimbly aware of the potentials and retain the ability to adapt as conditions change.

      Reply
      • danabanana

         /  June 5, 2016

        I’ve not called for an ice free ocean this year… I have for 2017 though, since 2007😀. I’m afraid I’m in agreement with P Wadhams on this one, where we see ice free conditions (below 1mil sqm) somewhere between 2013-2020. Personally, I think that the ice condition speak volumes

        My post was not referring to a year in particular but more to the fact that the ASI will be gone sooner rather than later (and last time I checked physics at work were still the same). I do take into account weather and I do understand that conditions can either be good or bad for melt each season but the trend is down with no sign of reversing. Nothing much has changed in terms of GHG emissions so you can’t expect a different end result.

        In terms of foolishness, … humanity as a whole has done a great job to earn the diploma.

        Reply
      • Blue water in the Arctic is one psychologically important tipping point. However, our traditional climate was driven by a DRY Arctic. Anytime the sea ice fractures, or has melt ponds, then the Arctic has more moisture in the atmosphere, and that moisture affects global atmospheric circulation.

        Changes in atmospheric circulation as a result of changing latent heat content in the Arctic atmosphere are currently affecting the weather in non-linear ways – e.g., heat waves that kill things and burning boreal forests. Current conditions in the Arctic are generating current and near term risks. We do not need to wait for blue water to do risk analysis.

        Consider: Where do winds come from? A new theory on how water vapor condensation influences atmospheric pressure and dynamics ( http://arxiv.org/abs/1004.0355) in the context of a warming Arctic, even without blue water.

        Reply
  17. redskylite

     /  June 4, 2016

    From the Alaska Dispatch News

    As the Arctic Ocean gets ‘spicier,’ hunting may become more dangerous

    “The sea ice, it offers a protective barrier,” Ahmasuk explained. “It keeps the ripples and waves down.”

    Ahmasuk is Kawerak Inc.’s subsistence director, based in Nome. He grew up out on the water hunting with his father. He now takes his own children with him to hunt for bearded seals, or ugruk, and walruses.

    “When you have that larger open water, it’s more susceptible to large waves (and) bad weather,” Ahmasuk added.

    He says if warmer, saltier seawater makes for thinner, sparser sea ice, most hunters won’t fare too well in their standard 18-foot Lund boats.

    “Your side height on a Lund boat is only 28 inches, but if you have four- or six-foot rollers coming at you, you’re probably not going to want to be out there,” he said.

    http://www.adn.com/arctic/2016/06/02/as-the-arctic-ocean-gets-spicier-hunting-may-become-more-dangerous/

    Reply
  18. Cate

     /  June 4, 2016

    http://edmontonjournal.com/business/energy/new-pipelines-to-export-alberta-oil-not-needed-report-says

    >>>>New pipelines aren’t needed to move Alberta oil to export terminals because there’s already enough rail and pipeline capacity, a new report says.
    Author David Hughes calculated Alberta’s 100-megatonne cap on annual oilsands greenhouse gas emissions will allow bitumen production to increase by 45 per cent from 2014 levels.
    “New pipelines are not needed if the Alberta government’s announced cap on emissions is observed.”
    A National Energy Board report shows Canada won’t meet those goals unless companies outside the oil and gas industry cut greenhouse gases up to 59 per cent from 2014 levels within 16 years, a “near-impossible” feat without severe economic impact, he wrote.
    “Short of an economic collapse, it is difficult to see how Canada could realistically meet its Paris commitments without rethinking its plans for oil and gas development.”<<<<<

    The Alberta govt, predictably, begs to differ, as it "doesn't see resource extraction and environmental responsibility as mutually exclusive."

    Right there. There's the sign that we may be dealing with a species of insanity. It's a very similar stance to PM Trudeau's insistence that pipelines can pay for renewables. There's a deep-seated failure to engage climate realities at the very top of Canadian political leadership.

    Reply
    • You can’t continue to extract fossil fuels at greater rates and lessen your impact on climate change. That’s why everyone is up in arms over these pipelines. Rational people know that expanding the pipeline infrastructure means locking in a great volume of extraction, a greater rate of emissions. It implies a continued quest for new markets and an attempt to hold captive existing markets. If the use of oil and gas were not existentially harmful to people, living creatures, and nations, this would not be an issue. But a plan to expand the tar sands is a plan to increase the rate of climate destabilization and to enhance all the various harms that go along with it.

      Canada has to make the tough choice and do the right thing. And that involves moving away from and spinning down what will ultimately become the most harmful and destructive industry in the history of the human race if it is not halted soon.

      Reply
  19. dnem

     /  June 4, 2016

    Have a look at the radar from east Texas this morning. Holy heck. For now, it looks like the very worst of it is hanging just off shore of the coast, but man, that’s an impressive and scary looking picture. I’m not adept at posting pictures here, but any weather radar site will do.

    Reply
  20. Another sobering piece Robert. I can’t completely wrap my brain around the intensity and rapidity of the climate changes we are seeing. Abrupt climate change anyone?

    I have had company all week and away from the computer, so apologies if this article has been linked:
    “The Climate Change documentary…”Time to Choose”…is an urgent, hopeful plea.

    http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/movies/la-et-mn-time-to-choose-review-20160531-snap-story.html

    Reply
  21. Spike

     /  June 4, 2016

    According to analysis of recent satellite data, forest fires in eastern Russia currently cover more than 3.5 million hectares of forested land. An area larger than Belgium!

    http://bit.ly/1O8rRug

    Reply
  22. Colorado Bob

     /  June 4, 2016

    Earlier this week, Météo France noted that May 2016 had been the rainiest month since 1886.

    “These events, even though they are there, can occur at any given time,” says Laurens Bouwer, an expert in climate change impacts at Deltares. But they fit the pattern that we expect with global warming where we see more intense rainfall events. With increasing temperatures, we see higher temperatures and more rainfall.”

    http://en.rfi.fr/france/20160602-floods-france-and-germany-linked-climate-change-experts

    Reply
  23. Reply
  24. Colorado Bob

     /  June 4, 2016
    Reply
    • – Powerful images there, Bob.
      They do show that we all live in an ‘island nation.’
      The water will effect us one way or the other — sooner, or later — this carbon displaced water.

      The USGS Water Science School

      How much water is there on, in, and above the Earth?

      The Earth is a watery place. But just how much water exists on, in, and above our planet? About 71 percent of the Earth’s surface is water-covered, and the oceans hold about 96.5 percent of all Earth’s water. Water also exists in the air as water vapor, in rivers and lakes, in icecaps and glaciers, in the ground as soil moisture and in aquifers…

      http://water.usgs.gov/edu/earthhowmuch.html

      Reply
    • – Some have a POV made possible by quad-copter drones.

      Reply
  25. Colorado Bob

     /  June 4, 2016

    SNPP/VIIRS
    2016/155
    06/03/2016
    05:30 UTC

    Smoke and fires in eastern Russia

    Reply
  26. – AU – Wild Weather Down Under

    Sydney weather live blog: NSW residents told to bunker down for wild night

    Date
    June 4, 2016 – 9:49PM

    The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe weather warning for most of NSW

    Winds reached up to 117km/hr in Sydney, and 102km/h in Wollongong on Saturday

    A low pressure system is moving south from Queensland, bringing with it rain and gale force wind

    The worst of the weather is expected to hit Sydney at dawn on Sunday morning

    Waves of up to 7 metres are expected along the NSW coast overnight

    – Up to three times the average rainfall for June has been recorded in parts of the state.

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-weather-live-blog-east-coast-low-hits-nsw-queensland-20160603-gpbhpa.html

    Reply
    • – There’s something about fossil fuels that lead politicians to extremes – AU.

      Reply
      • Fossil fuel special interests are enforcing global climate disruption even as they attempt to wreck our ability to track it. They are worse than the high priests of Easter Island acting in an irresponsible and intentionally destructive fashion on a global scale. Forcing us to make living sacrifices to a black and burning god as they pile up related ill-gained profits in what will ultimately become a useless hoard. This is the way greed takes down civilizations. And it’s starting to happen on a global scale.

        Reply
  27. Cate

     /  June 4, 2016

    Draft paper of the Govt of Canada, dated 3 March 2016, obtained through Access to Information act. An interesting read to say the least.

    “Policy Horizons Canada is a strategic foresight organization within the Public Service of Canada with a mandate to help anticipate emerging policy challenges and opportunities…..” Views expressed do not necessarily represent those of govt, its depts., or agencies. So, a thought exercise developed for govt consumption.

    A few highlights: the two scenarios on pp 11-12: “resisting and reacting to change” or “embracing and leading change.” There is one paragraph—ONE—on Arctic development (Canada is “the True North” only in song and dance). The conclusion mentions a niche market for “green and ethical oil.” The last sentence suggests “potential for significant disruptions in energy over the next 10-15 years….”

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4xwsmIvvlMCaDZLTDBLWXlJYTQ/view

    Reply
  28. Environmental crime growing at ‘alarming pace’: police body

    The value of stolen natural resources – including fish, timber, gold and other minerals – has risen by 26 percent in the last year, according to a report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and Interpol, the largest international police organization.

    “Environmental crime is growing at an alarming pace,” Interpol Secretary General Jurgen Stock warned in a statement.

    The world’s fourth most valuable criminal enterprise after drug smuggling, counterfeiting and human trafficking, environmental wrongdoing undermines local land rights, threatens sustainable development and finances conflicts, U.N. officials said.

    Weak laws and poorly funded security forces are enabling international criminal networks and armed rebels to profit from a trade that also damages ecosystems and threatens species with extinction, the report said.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-environment-crime-resources-landright-idUSKCN0YQ013

    Reply
    • This is what happens when we incentivize greed, when we fail to work together, and when we intentionally degrade the systems of governance and law in favor of what basically amounts to a corporately encouraged system of global piracy. This is the end game of laissez faire economic and government policies writ large. Increase inequality, reward exploitation, this is what happens.

      Reply
  29. – Weather is still active in Europe:

    Met Office ‏@metoffice 18m18 minutes ago

    #Thunderstorms continue to affect much of #Europe, with each coloured cross on the image a #Lightning strike

    Reply
  30. Reply
  31. Jean

     /  June 4, 2016

    So sad Mohammad Ali died..We need more people fighting for Brown People:..Quote as he refused the Draft Board:
    “Why should they ask me to put on a uniform and go 10,000 miles from home and drop bombs and bullets on Brown people in Vietnam while so-called Negro people in Louisville are treated like dogs and denied simple human rights? No I’m not going 10,000 miles from home to help murder and burn another poor nation simply to continue the domination of white slave masters of the darker people the world over. This is the day when such evils must come to an end. I have been warned that to take such a stand would cost me millions of dollars. But I have said it once and I will say it again. The real enemy of my people is here. I will not disgrace my religion, my people or myself by becoming a tool to enslave those who are fighting for their own justice, freedom and equality. If I thought the war was going to bring freedom and equality to 22 million of my people they wouldn’t have to draft me, I’d join tomorrow. I have nothing to lose by standing up for my beliefs. So I’ll go to jail, so what? We’ve been in jail for 400 years.”

    ― Muhammad Ali…It is all connected..

    Reply
  32. Bill and Wife

     /  June 4, 2016

    Thank you for this wonderful web site. It gives one reason of why they feel so pained and full of sorrow in their heart if they are sensitive to their environment?. It is staggering to realize that civilization may not make it pass 2030 if present trends continue??Lets hope things slow down,but with feed back loops this may not be the case.

    Reply
  33. George W. Hayduke

     /  June 4, 2016
    Reply
  34. Reply
    • John McCormnick

       /  June 4, 2016

      Napolean: “ask me for anything but time”

      Reply
  35. – USA TX A dramatic contrast W to E.

    Becky Elliott ‏@AccuWxBeck 5m5 minutes ago

    Daily MODIS view of the low over Texas, responsible for all the heavy rain & flooding. #TXwx

    Reply
  36. Fossil fuels and bomb-trains USA:

    Reply
  37. Connecticut Gordon

     /  June 4, 2016

    Hi Robert

    I don’t think you have mentioned Andrew Slater’s website this year yet, unless I have missed it.
    His 50 day forecast, which you informed us about last year, shows a dramatic drop over the past few days. Is this linked to the forecast warm weather for the next week or so, or does he have other forecasting methods that might suggest such a big drop.

    http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

    Thanks for keeping me very well informed.

    Reply
  38. Colorado Bob

     /  June 4, 2016

    Watch Fishermen Bomb Their Catch Out of the Water

    A horrific practice uses explosives to catch fish.

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/06/blast-fishing-dynamite-fishing-tanzania/?google_editors_picks=true

    Reply
  39. Cate

     /  June 4, 2016

    Lightning hits a rock concert in Germany, injuring dozens, as Europe’s weird weather continues.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36451614

    Reply
  40. Cate

     /  June 4, 2016

    Ice break-up on Great Bear Lake, NWT, Canada: ice surges are not unheard of, but as a witness said, “I’ve lived here all my life and have never ice move up so fast or so high.”

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/deline-ice-surges-shore-breakup-1.3616155

    Reply
    • redskylite

       /  June 5, 2016

      Many thanks for sharing that article, eye witness comments are a valuable illustration of what is occurring in the higher North.

      Reply
  41. Colorado Bob

     /  June 4, 2016

    Over 100 Inches of Rain Have Soaked Parts of the South Since Spring 2015

    According to NOAA’s ACIS database, 50 weather observing stations in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle have picked up at least 100 inches of rain from March 1, 2015 through May 31, 2016.

    Of those, two locations just east of Houston have picked up over 10 feet of rain in 15 months.

    Liberty, Texas: 123.99 inches
    Baytown, Texas: 122.79 inches

    Link

    Reply
  42. Colorado Bob

     /  June 4, 2016

    It Is Just a Lack of Political Will
    By: Dr. Ricky Rood

    Political Will. I often hear the statement that climate change could be solved, easily perhaps, if we only had political will. The statement, sometimes, comes from scientists. Usually, I think the statement is in the spirit of – the science and technology, the hard work, are in place, and it is only a matter of political will, the easy work, to act on that knowledge. Other times it seems a statement on a lack of courage, strength, moral character, or leadership.

    My experience, political will, or better, when solving complex problems, political, operational, social, and emotional barriers are far more difficult to overcome than scientific and technical barriers. Take even a small problem, for example, a team building a new way to represent clouds in a climate model. This would be a piece of software. Politically, we might have different agencies and program managers funding the scientists and software engineers building the software. They have interest in their work being used and recognized. Operationally, the new cloud software has to fit in with a lot of other pieces of software and produce a better product, such as a forecast. Also, it has to run on the computer in a certain amount of time. Socially, we have to consider how organizations and individuals work together such that they are vested in the success of the product. Emotionally, some scientists identify with the old algorithm, some scientists identify with the new; there are winners and losers, good and bad feelings.

    Link

    Reply
  43. Cate

     /  June 5, 2016

    Norway: incoming reports of a ban on new sales of fossil-fuelled cars by 2025, and the first country in the world to commit to “zero deforestation.”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/norway-to-ban-the-sale-of-all-fossil-fuel-based-cars-by-2025-and-replace-with-electric-vehicles-a7065616.html

    Reply
    • That’s a good example for Canada. Norway also produces oil, but I think that country has seen the writing on the wall.

      Reply
  44. Colorado Bob

     /  June 5, 2016

    Persistent Arctic and sub-Arctic warmth

    Persistent Arctic and sub-Arctic warmth expected to continue for months

    Temperatures in eastern Siberia and parts of Alaska could reach above 80 degrees in coming days, according to the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer. Temperatures are likely to be above normal in all of Alaska this June and all the way through October, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. Most of Canada is also likely to have higher-than-normal temperatures, at least through fall, according to Environment Canada’s seasonal forecasts.

    Neven’s Artic Sea Ice Blog

    Reply
  45. USA CA nteresting image dry So. Cal. Bight and Eddy — fire is of small scale.
    – For years I had a poster size sat. map of the Bight – and one of the Santa Barbara Channel. And used it for news, weather, and nature events or sightings.

    Zack Labe ‏@ZLabe 3h3 hours ago

    Lots of features on today’s #MODIS Aqua (250 m) including a coastal eddy and smoke from the #TemeculaFire #SoCalwx

    Reply
  46. Colorado Bob

     /  June 5, 2016

    I’m try to change this water to wine

    Reply
  47. Colorado Bob

     /  June 5, 2016

    Led Zeppelin – Whole Lotta Love (HQ)

    Reply
  48. Syd Bridges

     /  June 5, 2016

    The year is going from horrible to catastrophic. This unprecedented heat in Siberia is leading to unprecedented fires there and the likely increased release of CO2 and a peppering of northern ice by heat-absorbing soot, which may soon negate the albedo gains on the GIS. A persistent high over Greenland will likely give western Europe more rain this summer. I fear we will see serious worldwide food shortages this year or next. Meanwhile, from the Mauna Loa observatory last week, we got:

    Week beginning on May 22, 2016: 408.31 ppm
    Weekly value from 1 year ago: 403.77 ppm
    Weekly value from 10 years ago: 384.68 ppm

    It is now likely that we’ll never see MLO CO2 below 400 ppm again.

    I am beginning to wonder whether the Anthropocene is nearly over, to be followed by the Thanatocene.

    Reply
  49. Colorado Bob

     /  June 5, 2016

    The of end of the Earth what a trip. Everyone grab what you can.

    Reply
  50. Keith Antonysen

     /  June 5, 2016

    The several areas of Tasmania have been impacted by flash flooding. Storms have caused damage from Queensland down to Tasmania.

    http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/trees-downed-roads-flooded-and-power-cut-as-wild-weather-hits-state/news-story/f7e7f87dd93dc3ecbfa2da1dfafdf6ee

    Reply
  51. danabanana

     /  June 5, 2016

    The Cold Blolb gets a brief mention on the BBC:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/36446955

    I hope link works for those of you outside UK.

    Reply
    • Josh

       /  June 5, 2016

      I find it difficult to watch those kind of mainstream-style reports these days.

      Always upbeat and cheerful while simultaneously not covering the much more serious effects. This makes it look as though all climate change will do is reduce hurricanes and so forth.

      I’m reminded of RS’s interview on Voice of America, in which the interviewees (including Robert) explain very serious issues while the presenter persists with a kind of superficial “isn’t that interesting!” persona that seems to be the norm in a lot of broadcasting these days.

      Not that mainstream reporting of climate issues isn’t to be very strongly encouraged of course, but people need to be treated as adults sometimes.

      Reply
  52. Maig

     /  June 5, 2016

    Bad news again… It’s a bit too early to know wether it may bring to blue ocean or not in september 2016, but it now seems clear it will happen in a few years if not a few months…

    Reply
  53. Arctic could become ice-free for first time in more than 100,000 years, claims leading scientist

    Professor Peter Wadhams, head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at Cambridge University, told The Independent that the latest figures largely bore out a controversial prediction he made four years ago.

    “My prediction remains that the Arctic ice may well disappear, that is, have an area of less than one million square kilometres for September of this year,” he said.

    “Even if the ice doesn’t completely disappear, it is very likely that this will be a record low year. I’m convinced it will be less than 3.4 million square kilometres [the current record low].

    “I think there’s a reasonable chance it could get down to a million this year and if it doesn’t do it this year, it will do it next year.”

    Dr Peter Gleick, a leading climatologist, said he had “no idea” if Professor Wadhams’ prediction was correct.

    And he added: “If it’s wrong, this kind of projection leads to climate sceptics and deniers to criticize the entire community.”

    Professor Jennifer Francis, of Rutgers University in the US, who has studied the effect of the Arctic on the weather in the rest of the northern hemisphere, was also sceptical about Professor Wadhams’ prediction, saying it was “highly unlikely” to come true this year.

    She said she thought this would not happen until sometime between 2030 and 2050.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-could-become-ice-free-for-first-time-in-more-than-100000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html

    Reply
    • Interesting. I was wondering when Wadhams would chime in. He’s a bit more aggressive than me on this, but not by too much.

      Based on current trends, I’d say less than 2012 is a high risk event (60 to 70 percent). Blue Ocean is possible (30-40 percent potential at this time) this year unless there are some rather significant weather changes that begin to rule it out. 2030 to 2050 is too conservative, in my view. Peter Gleick needs to stop worrying about climate change deniers and start worrying about very real and present risks. He’s a good guy. But, you know, we need to watch the ball, not listen to the peanut gallery.

      Reply
  54. USA PDX yesterday 0604 had a record 98 F — more worrisome was the overnight low that was 11 F above normal.

    Reply
  55. 17:02 UTC — USA Dry So. Cal.- A wildfire:

    Reply
  56. Reply
  57. Robert,

    Wanted to call your attention to Bernie’s Press Conference on Climate Change.. it’s good.

    Reply
  58. – The northern hemisphere has some warm spots : US West/Coast and Siberia.
    CLICK on image for current status.

    Reply
  59. -Greenland presently getting some relief:

    Reply
    • Greenland surface melt is shaping up to be in better shape overall for this year. So far, that is. Lots of snowfall has increased albedo and raises the resistance to melt for June through July. That said, Baffin is melting out fast and Greenland looks like it will soon be surrounded on all sides by above freezing temperatures. I’d still call it touch and go. But, yeah, certainly better than what earlier indicators pointed to.

      Reply
  60. Robert, how’s your MD weather these days?

    Reply
    • I was hiking when this started to roll in earlier today. We could hear some trees falling further up the trail. Watched the line come in on radar and just got to the car in time before the soaking commenced. Overall, a pretty decent storm. Nothing like the rain bombs in Texas earlier this week. Later, there was a double rainbow as the sun peaked out from behind the clouds.

      Reply
  61. Re the recent Bakken oil train derailment and fire in Oregon:

    Reply
  62. King City, Ca – Still in parts of California where the Godzilla El Nino ‘feared to tread’.

    Sekarangku ‏@sekarangku 3h3 hours ago

    California Wildfire Still Roaring North of Fort Hunter: The wildfire in California is still burning today Jun…
    ####

    Reply
  63. labmonkey2

     /  June 5, 2016

    N.W.T. – Great Bear Lake is having a sad… a tad early for this? Locals were shocked.


    A sudden and dramatic breakup of Great Bear Lake had people in Deline, N.W.T., running to rescue their boats and Ski-Doos as strong winds caused ice to surge onshore.
    Warehouses along the shoreline were lifted and moved and teepees were damaged by the powerful ice movements.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/deline-ice-surges-shore-breakup-1.3616155

    Reply
  64. Andy Lee Robinson

     /  June 7, 2016

    Arctic Death Spiral also shows yet another record low for May.
    10% less than this time last year :-0

    Reply
  1. Siberian Heatwave Wrecks Sea Ice as Greenland High Settles In | robertscribbler | GarryRogers Nature Conservation

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