A Season of Record Melt — Sea Ice Extent In Uncharted Territory For 94 Days

From March 25th through June 26th, sea ice extent measures, as provided by Japan’s Arctic data system were in record low ranges. In other words, for about a quarter of a year, and according to this monitor, the Arctic Ocean and its surrounding estuaries have witnessed the lowest ice coverage ever measured for any similar period since record keeping began in the 1979.

Sea Ice Extent JAXA

(An amazingly long period of record low sea ice extents in JAXA’s sea ice monitor.)

This new period of extreme sea ice record lows comes during a time of continuous decadal sea ice losses. Average sea ice coverage for each successive ten year period since the 1980s during the March through June period has fallen by about 400,000 to 500,000 square kilometers. For 2016, the new record lows widened this gap to more than 2 million square kilometers — or a surface area of sea ice coverage lost roughly equivalent the size of Greenland.

Over recent days, the JAXA measure has edged slightly over the record low 2010 line for the period, ending a season-long escapade into record low ranges.

Winter/Spring Heat The Driver of New Record Lows This Year

Overall, these losses were driven by an extraordinary warming of the Arctic that has extended and intensified over these time periods. A warming that has itself been forced upon the Arctic by human greenhouse gas emissions which are, for the largest part, the result of fossil fuel burning. This year, the Arctic experienced new record warmth during a Winter that included odd periods when North Pole temperatures rose briefly above freezing.

Alaska, a microcosm of this building Arctic heat, experienced its second warmest winter on record — which was then immediately followed by its warmest spring ever recorded. Across the state, it was warmer than normal pretty much everywhere and mostly all the time.

Alaska 25 City Composite Temperatures

According to this 25 Alaska city composite index (provided by Climatologist Brian Brettschnieder above) every day but two through June 30 of this year saw above normal temperatures in the related regions. Yet another pretty clear indication that there’s nothing normal about Arctic or near Arctic temperatures these days.

Closer to the 2012 Line But Still in Record Low Range

All this extreme Arctic heat during Winter and Spring was probably the major contributor to new record low sea ice extents continuing for more than three months running. However, storms over the Arctic Ocean have since moderated temperatures into closer to normal ranges for June even as these weather systems’ circulatory patterns have tended to spread the ice out. As a result, rapid rates of melt slowed somewhat into June and the extent monitor has crossed the 2010 line, coming closer to the 2012 line in the JAXA measure, while flipping back and forth over the 2012 line in other major measures (NSIDC).

Arctic Storm East Siberian Sea Laptev

(Arctic storm churns through the East Siberian and Laptev seas of the Arctic Ocean on July 1 of 2016. Sea ice measures are currently near new record lows, but a steep rate of decline will be required to challenge or break with 2012. Image source: LANCE MODIS.)

The upshot is that the sea ice state during early July doesn’t look quite as bad as it did during late May and early June. Chances for a blue ocean event in which Arctic sea ice volume exceeds an 80 percent loss since the late 1970s, in which sea ice extent falls below 1.5 million square kilometers, or sea ice area falls below 1 million square kilometers seems less likely by end Summer at this time. Such an event would now likely require some rather severe Summer weather episodes including strong highs over the Central Arctic and/or very strong late summer lows pushing heavy swells into the Central Arctic Basin. That’s not to say we shouldn’t be on the lookout for strong negative sea ice departures over the next few months — which are certainly still possible. And given the current trend, 2016 remains in a position to hit near or below 2012 records by end Summer.

Links/Attribution/Statements:

Sea Ice Hit Record Lows Every Single Day in May

Hat tip to The Arctic Sea Ice Blog

Climatologist Brian Brettschnieder

LANCE MODIS

JAXA

NSIDC (please support public, non special interest based science by re-funding critical NSIDC satellite monitoring of the Arctic)

Alaska Experiences Warmest Spring on Record

Warm Arctic Storm to Push Temperatures Above Freezing at North Pole in Winter

NASA GISS

Hat tip to DT Lange

Hat tip to Cate

Hat tip to Colorado Bob

Hat tip to DaveW

(Disclaimer — The views and analysis expressed in this blog are my own. The related analysis is an exploration of current trends and possible future climate states informed by my own best assessment of the science. In no way is this analysis meant to be misconstrued as an absolute authoritative final word on sea ice states. For example, we cannot say with absolute certainty that any one of the following — new record lows, blue ocean events, or a failure to hit new record lows — will happen. As such, the analysis should instead be viewed as a middle-certainty forecast informed by current trends. Further scientific opinion and informed discussion on the issue is welcome.)

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251 Comments

  1. lracine

     /  July 1, 2016

    Grim, very grim….

    Every morning when I flip my computer on, the first screen that comes up is the Polar Portal, Danish Arctic research institution. Data is very similar to the JAXA.

    The other parameter to consider is thickness and volume… which ironically is not so bad. The last two weeks this measurement has been falling right on the middle of the “normal” curve. Go to Polar Portal DK.

    Reply
  2. Thanks for the Hat Tip, Robert – I am honoured!

    I have been following climate disruption on various blogs and sites since the since autumn of 2007, after news about the amazing Arctic sea ice drop in that year. Have to say, I am consistantly amazed at the breadth and the depth of material that you handle on this blog. Outstanding source of ACD info.

    Only hassle – one has to read all the comments, and follow almost all the links in comments, since your whole community is so informed and involved – lol.

    Many thanks for all your effort.

    Reply
  3. Kevin Jones

     /  July 2, 2016

    JAXA currently 2.29 million sq. km.below 1980’s average. That much lost white reflective sea ice Plus that much dark heat absorbing water. I try to tell friends it is like not just removing a white shirt on a hot day but replacing it with a black one.

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  July 2, 2016

      Somewhat surprised myself by finding 2.29 million sq. km. is larger than Alaska and California combined…. in just some 3 decades. A six year old could conclude this might have huge consequences.

      Reply
  4. – Stuff like these high minimums scare me as much as anything — let alone the high temps.
    No cool-down. Everything stays warm. The highs get a head start….

    Ps Re: the above graph of Alaska’ temps — I repeat my comment from previous post. I have no idea if something like this is can be a chronologic harbinger of sorts — but I know that “Timing is everything.” And everything has a beginning. I’ll have to watch as latitudinal warming continues.

    “Chrono wise, April was when the PNW (OR, WA, et al.) heated up and lost a tremendous amount of snow pack. A month later we see the above spike in AK.”

    Reply
  5. Jay M

     /  July 2, 2016

    have there been a flury of denunciations of this post?

    Reply
    • Not that I’m aware of. What made you think that?

      Reply
      • Robert, just for the exercise, if you go to Twitter’s search box and type in robertscribbler you will get results.🙂

        Reply
      • Jay M

         /  July 4, 2016

        just sayin’ you were jumped, just might have put a lot more maybe’s in the equator piece–no I don’t think so
        this post–not interesting to the MSM
        I would be totally happy if the crisis caused by the greenhouse effect is being dealt with in a timely fashion and there is no reason for an emergency. Beckworth has spoken out with his videos that are accessible, paleontologist I hear in Canada.
        Best wishes

        Reply
    • – I’ve seen a few retweets of the JS WaPo piece – some are a bit haughty. Many are AMS people. This, even as AMS forecasters have been relatively error prone as climate change impacts weather systems in erratic ways.🙂

      Reply
      • Not to be picky but…
        Recently, I attended a AMS conference where CC or AGW was a forbidden topic yet much time and effort was devoted to discussing local sports scores, tourist destinations, weather mascots type non meteorologic trivia.

        I attended it to be informed — but came away somewhat insulted and a waste of time.

        Reply
  6. – Interesting.

    Reply
    • Andy in SD

       /  July 2, 2016

      Yup, been listening to the drills for about 2 weeks now.

      Reply
  7. Jay M

     /  July 2, 2016

    interesting weather in the sahara region typical?

    Reply
  8. Andy in SD

     /  July 2, 2016

    Here is an interesting site focused on high tide surges. They have 30 yrs of data on hand as well. It is quite a polished site.

    http://www.u-surge.net/

    Reply
    • – Very good.

      About U-Surge

      U-Surge provides the first comprehensive storm surge datasets for cities along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic Coasts

      Reply
    • Griffin

       /  July 2, 2016

      Thanks for this Andy. There are some real sharp folks that run the data for that website.

      Reply
  9. Andy in SD

     /  July 2, 2016

    It seems Lake Okeechobee, long used as an industrial toilet is barfing up a good load of nitrogen effluent and other such treasures. End result is nasty.

    ‘Guacamole-Thick’ Algae Takes Over Florida’s Atlantic Coast, 4 Counties Declare State of Emergency
    =================================================================

    Waterways and beaches along Florida’s Atlantic coast have been taken over by thick, blue-green algae blooms, prompting Florida Gov. Rick Scott to declare local states of emergency in St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach and Lee counties.

    Residents have described the foul-smelling algae as “guacamole-thick,” “god-awful” and “a festering infected creepy mess.” One resident has complained of health problems, telling Reuters, “It is affecting all of us as far as red eyes, runny nose and the ‘in the throat’ feeling.”

    https://ecowatch.com/2016/07/01/algae-bloom-florida/

    Reply
  10. USA Wildfires CC – more evidence

    – capradio.org/76670

    More Wildfires, Starting Sooner, Burning More Acres

    A report by the nonpartisan Climate Central says that 11 million people in California are at risk of wildfire and that climate change is lengthening the wildfire season.

    Previous reports by researchers have said wildfires in the western U.S. would become more intense, larger, and start earlier than usual as a result of climate change.

    “This intense activity is indicative of a growing trend in Western wildfires linked to changes in climate,” the report notes. “Spring and summer temperatures have been rising across the West, and mountain snowpack has been melting earlier. Taken together, these changes are creating more days where forests and grasslands are dried out and ready to burn.”

    Reply
    • Reply
      • PineFire is near Condor country (Sanctuary).

        Los Padres NF ‏@LosPadresNF 11h11 hours ago

        #PineFire 300 acres in Sespe Wilderness, airlifting ground crews to fireline. Type2IMT coming in today. @VCFD

        Reply
      • – Also near the Central Coast:

        Reply
      • Reina Cardenas ‏@rcardenasnu21 1h1 hour ago

        #CurryFire – 1,200 acres calcinados. Preparan centro en caso de evacuaciones. 12 casas están en riesgo.

        Reply
      • Rambling Chief ‏@RamblingChief 2h2 hours ago

        RT @SLOStringer: 4 charlie, 6 golf, 4 lima strike teams, 6 water tenders, 4 divisions, 2 branches for dayshift tomorrow #CurryFire
        ###
        SLOStringer ‏@SLOStringer 2h2 hours ago

        Per Air Attack on #CurryFire, 1900 acres. IC saying 0 structures lost, CHP saying 2 earlier. Not sure of discrepancy.
        ###
        CAL FIRE NEWS ‏@CalFireNews 3h3 hours ago

        #CurryFire – Fresno County Vegetation Fire- SRA http://calfire.blogspot.com/2016/07/curry-fire-ca-fku-curry-location.html … 1000+ acres, imediate structure threats.

        Reply
      • ‘A strike team is a specified combination of the same kind and type of resource (usually 5), with common communications, and a leader. Lima designates a Dozer Strike Team, Charlie designates an Engine Strike Team and Golf designates a Crew Strike Team. Rich and Donna, Dozer Support.’

        http://www.wildlandfire.com/docs/wlfterms.htm

        Reply
      • – Fast and heavy reactions to these wildfires. All at the mercy of weather and/or funding.

        Reply
      • – Example of a ‘Hot Shot’ fire crew at work:

        C H I E F K E I T H ‏@_CallMeChief_ Jun 27

        Prepping a Indirect line for a burn. A One mile stretch tied into a dozer line.🔥🔨 #CrowPeakFire #HotshotLife

        Reply
  11. Reply
  12. geoffrey brown

     /  July 2, 2016

    The ice is looking a lot worse this year than the pure numbers let on. It is breaking up rather fast in places that it has not in past years. You can really see it on worldview if you dodge the clouds. The concentration maps really show how bad it is. The extent numbers are deceiving because there has been so much breaking up and redistribution.

    Reply
  13. Kevin Jones

     /  July 2, 2016

    Very interesting piece in July 1 Washington Post. The biggest body of warm water on Earth is getting bigger. Chris Mooney. Sorry for lack of link but very interesting indeed.

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  July 2, 2016

      I find it disturbing that every single article about climate in mainstream media has a denier comment within the first three to five comments on the article.
      It is as if every website and writer has a “commenter” assigned to them. These people have got to be paid to do what they do. I used to think I was crazy for even considering such a thing but now, I have seen too much to think otherwise.
      Seriously, if I was an individual that was truly convinced that the science is all wrong, a hoax or just a bunch of crap, why would I even bother reading anything posted by Chris Mooney? Never mind taking the time to log in and make a comment. The deniers that do this, every time, I just can’t seem to believe that it is honest folks that just want others to see things as they do. So my own conclusion is that it is an organized (loosely) coalition that is actively working, every day, to spread confusion amongst an easily deceived public.
      It would almost be amusing if not for the fact that delaying climate action now directly reduces the amount of time left that our climate will remain suitable for growing sufficient amounts of food to maintain a civil society.

      Reply
      • “I find it disturbing that every single article about climate in mainstream media has a denier comment within the first three to five comments on the article.”

        – You better believe it. It is prevalent — auto-trolls — likely paid — doing hack jobs like dogs pissing on fire hydrants, you know.🙂

        Reply
  14. Colorado Bob

     /  July 2, 2016

    Today’s pass over Russia –
    Aqua/MODIS
    2016/184
    07/02/2016
    05:25 UTC

    Reply
  15. Kevin Jones

     /  July 2, 2016

    NSIDC has Arctic Sea Ice Extent jumping 2012 for July 1. Now 160,000 sq km ahead.

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  July 2, 2016

      I of course mean the decline is ahead…

      Reply
      • Kevin Jones

         /  July 2, 2016

        Longtime commentator over at Arctic Sea Ice Blog, Bill Fothergill, points out that NSIDC’s Charctic graph for any given day is a five day average up to that day. Thus their reported arctic sea ice extent for July 1 is really the average from June 27 to July l. 9.398 million sq. km. Their actual day value for July 1 he provides is 9.179.

        Reply
    • MODIS imagery appears to indicate a pretty weak and dispersed ice state. The large floating chunks in the Beaufort have been somewhat resilient, but this is probably due to the fact that a good portion of it is thick, multi year ice. Sea Surface Salinity measures in that region indicate a rather strong edge and bottom melt. All the ice on the Russia side looks pretty extraordinarily thin and vulnerable.

      This time of year is a sort of race to the bottom for sea ice melt. If 2016 tracks or exceeds 2012 through the end of July, then the set up for August and September will be ‘interesting.’ Large areas of dark, open water, big waves and the potential for those hotter SSTs to interact more with the ice.

      Reply
  16. Kevin Jones

     /  July 2, 2016

    JAXA has yesterday at 50,000 sq km below July 1, 2012.

    Reply
  17. climatehawk1

     /  July 2, 2016

    Tweet scheduled.

    Reply
  18. – I don’t recall seeing a link to this:

    -sciencemag.org/news/2016/06/crippled-atlantic-conveyor-trigger

    Crippled Atlantic currents triggered ice age climate change

    “The last ice age wasn’t one long big chill. Dozens of times temperatures abruptly rose or fell, causing all manner of ecological change. Mysteriously, ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show that these sudden shifts—which occurred every 1500 years or so—were out of sync in the two hemispheres: When it got cold in the north, it grew warm in the south, and vice versa. Now, scientists have implicated the culprit behind those seesaws—changes to a conveyor belt of ocean currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

    These currents, which today drive the Gulf Stream, bring warm surface waters north and send cold, deeper waters south. But they weakened suddenly and drastically, nearly to the point of stopping, just before several periods of abrupt climate change, researchers report today in Science. In a matter of decades, temperatures plummeted in the north, as the currents brought less warmth in that direction. Meanwhile, the backlog of warm, southern waters allowed the Southern Hemisphere to heat up.

    Reply
  19. Reply
  20. – Map is of the river’s historic meander belt:

    PrairieRivers ‏@PrairieRivers Jun 9

    #TBT to when the Mississippi was wild, free, & rich w/floodplain wetlands. @EPA #StopTheLevee @ElliotBrinkman

    Reply
    • Cate

       /  July 2, 2016

      Very striking image, would make a great poster.

      Reply
      • It may explain the wideness of the delta before it was channeled and constrained for real estate and fossil fuel uses.

        Reply
  21. – Interesting:

    Reply
    • – A link to the graph’s author and area of concern. May not be worth much time investigating though.
      http://initforthegold.blogspot.com/2010/01/ok-getting-serious-again.html

      Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  July 2, 2016

      Well dt. After reading dozens of the best books I could find and hundreds of the best peer reviewed papers in the major journals I could find and so much else, I guess I would put myself above the e in Catastrophe. I wish I couldn’t. Wonder where Gavin puts himself?

      Reply
      • Griffin

         /  July 2, 2016

        I would venture a guess that placement on the graph is closely tied to the personal vulnerability of the commenting individual to climate disruption. Financial security tends to push the threat vector off for many. Catastrophe is most certainly a relative term. A devastating food shock would be crippling to many but a minor inconvenience to a few. I happen to feel that many scientists are not always referring to Bangladeshi fishermen when they are commenting on the severity of expected impacts.

        Reply
    • I replied to the tweet:
      “Just curious — where is GS position on graph. Any others? Thx.”

      Reply
      • Kevin Jones

         /  July 2, 2016

        Ha! Wouldn’t it be fun to mail the graph out to a whole bunch of scientists and other voices sane and otherwise and get them to mark where they believe they are. Then get them all back and put all on one chart.

        Reply
      • Retweeted the graph Gavin posted. Provides a great context of the current ‘state of play.’ The thing to remember is that the mainstream science and IPCC acts as a necessary guard rail. The stuff to the right of IPCC is less certain, but represents higher potential impacts. If you explore that area you need to be willing to accept when you’re wrong, and to accept that it’s OK to screw up sometimes. And you also need to realize that it’s best to let the heavyweights make the final word on what is or is not a global climate emergency. Looking at risk is a more uncertain process. If Rahmstorf or Gavin chimes in and says — emergency — then we know that some concerns have shifted over to real-time trouble.

        Paul Beckwith, in my opinion, does not have the scientific gravitas to make these claims. And, for my own part, I tend to look at indicators, ask the question, and then let the specialists/experts have the final say. If I feel a need to push back, I try to be as respectful as possible. It’s guys like Gavin and Rahmstorf and Francis and Hansen and Archer and Rignot and others who educated me on these issues in the first place.

        The other thing to remember is that scientists do not hold back when tearing each other or what they consider to be a bad idea down. It is a very competitive field. So if you accidentally press the big red button, then the stuff is really going to fly.

        Reply
      • “Provides a great context of the current ‘state of play.’
        – RS
        Good, Robert🙂

        – It’s good to see/hear concerned people talking about the various aspects of CC context — and being able to use some proximate references rather absolutes.
        Positions may talked about a little more freely. There are so many nuances to CC and everyone’s response. Much like a swinging pendulum.

        JS too easily passed judgement on RS on a subject riddled with rapidly unfolding interlocking event(s).
        Who among us are error free? How often? And for how long?

        WaPo is the main news source in a ‘company’ town where the ‘company’ is controlled a vengeful and reckless Republican Party, et al . (A ‘Weather Gang’ all of its own.)

        RS injects much needed context into a very dangerous situation. Remedies are offered, and explored.
        RS even has the audacity to sound an alarm. Imagine that! Pro bono too.
        Most others stay at their weather/climate consoles reporting remotely sensed data, pass it on, then go home paycheck in hand.
        Robert, in his sense of urgency, just let himself get deked in his own zone. It happens in the pros all the time. I wouldn’t say that the ‘other team’ scored either.
        (Ps I talked about Robert in the third person for effect, Robert.)

        Me, firmly rooted on terra firma, I’ve watched firsthand as the sky/climate/weather/atmosphere, has fractured into dozens of unpredictable unwieidly pieces.
        Which I find very alarming.
        And the data tickers that I depend on keep humming along…

        DT

        Reply
      • – I did get a reply from GS. If appropriate, I will post it after I reply to his reply — for information purposes only.
        (It may show up on my Tweets anyway..🙂
        All is to stay respectful.
        I think JS/WaPo failed a bit in this regard.

        Reply
        • Nice work, DT. I’ll hazard a guess that Gavin sees himself as pretty near the top of the large hump. But, good to inquire.

          I like Robert’s overview pretty well. I also like Robert’s blog, because it hits what I think is the right tone as far as level of concern is … hmm, concerned (🙂, wrote myself into a corner there). Joe Romm is usually pretty good, Eric Holthaus also. I’m no scientist, but I’m over on the catastrophe end of the large hump myself, and pretty far out, too, given that the international system seems to be having a hard time getting its collective head out of its butt and concocting a serious response.

          Robert, you’re definitely right about scientists whacking away, and that’s good for all of us to keep in mind. It’s not an arena for those with tender feelings, so good to take less-than-positive comments with a grain or two of salt. Comes with the territory.

      • – I would just avoid PB at this juncture and stay on course a very important mission. Many others have valuable input.

        Reply
      • Griffin

         /  July 3, 2016

        What is “catastrophe” anyway? Would that be like losing say 20% of the Great Barrier Reef in one year? Or is that just the “substantial cost” of doing business in a fossil fueled world?
        We are a long way from stopping the addition of more blankets to our planetary bed and many years from realizing the true effects of the quilt we have on us now.
        I would love for someone (GS?) to soothe me back into thinking that the long term effects of our actions today will not be “catastrophic”.

        Reply
  22. Reply
    • – Fire is in area that already burned in 2009.

      Reply
    • Mulga Mumblebrain

       /  July 3, 2016

      What is that pink ‘retardant’ made of?

      Reply
      • – It’s actually a deep orange mostly for visibility for laying it down, also as evidence of its location after application.
        Most aircraft used in air attack have similar orange in their paint scheme.

        Phos-chek WD881

        Class A Foam is specially formulated to make water more effective for firefighting. The surfactants in Class A foam significantly reduce water’s surface tension and, when mixed with air, create a superior foam blanket that surrounds fuels with a thick layer of water. This creates a barrier between the fuel and the fire, knocking down the fire faster than water alone, and allowing fire fighters to see the areas of application. Making the water more effective reduces the amount of water needed to extinguish the fire, reduces water damage and increases fire fighter safety through quicker knockdown and reduced mop-up/overhaul requirements.

        WD881 is highly effective for fighting Class A fires when mixed with water at use rates of 0.1% to 1.0%. It has proven effectiveness in many applications including Compressed Air Foam Systems (CAFS), structural firefighting, forest fire suppression and prescribed burning, mine fires, industrial Class A fires, and for extinguishing hydrocarbon spill fires.
        http://phoschek.com/product-class/class-a-foam-for-wildland/

        Reply
      • Ps There have been various formulations of retardants. Some have been changed due to ecological concerns.It has an interesting history too.
        Also the retardant has a red or deep orange coloring added to it.
        From my observations, and differently, ‘hydro seeding’ ( usually a mix of H2o, seed, and fertilizer is colored a very bright green. Usually as a spray on foam. This is often applied right after a fire to promote rapid growth of ground cover.

        – Chemical & Engineering News

        August 29, 2011

        Seeing Red
        Controversy smolders over federal use of aerially applied fire retardants

        ‘The red fire retardant dropped from planes may have aided in ending this and other wildfires, but it has sparked controversy. For years, opponents have decried the Forest Service’s use of these aerially applied chemicals, citing the negative impacts to the environment of the product’s main firefighting chemicals: ammonium phosphates. ‘

        Ammonium phosphates have been deployed from the air to fight forest fires for nearly 50 years. But the idea of using these compounds to control fire is far older. Joseph Louis Gay-Lussac, the French chemist and physicist who formulated a gas law that bears his name, first proposed the use of ammonium phosphates as flame retardants in 1821.
        https://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/89/8935cover.html

        Reply
  23. 44 south

     /  July 2, 2016

    When I see my paddocks are green and growing in July and not frosted fawn and dormant AND I see a thrush collecting worms for it’s young, mid winter; THAT tells me all I need to know about just how far down this deadly path we are.

    Reply
    • Cate

       /  July 3, 2016

      You illustrate a couple of points that are obvious, but I think sometimes forgotten or taken for granted, as we in the developed, urbanised world in particular respond to climate change:

      1. it’s not just this or that big thing changing, or even a handful of big things. It’s all the millions of little changes going on around us in the natural world that together are raising a planet-sized red flag, or to use another figure of speech, sounding a global natural alarm.

      2. our response to the flag, or to the alarm, depends on our being able to perceive it. We are lucky if we live in places where we can still observe nature and compare what’s happening now to what used to happen in the same place. For the bigger picture, and crucially, for the hundreds of millions of busy, urbanised folks, the science plays a crucial role: it must be their eyes and ears on nature.

      A corollary: widespread urbanisation also behooves those of us who work with young people to take up the slack in promoting environmental education in our classrooms and community groups. It is essential that we support and expand all initiatives that aim to bring children back into an observant and empathetic relationship with nature with a view to increasing their awareness of climate change and their ability to respond to it.

      Reply
  24. Colorado Bob

     /  July 3, 2016

    dtlange / July 2, 2016

    – Russia — Bob, have you seen this wide of an area burning before?

    Huge forest fires raged across Russia’s Amur region and China’s Heliongjiang region on May 30, 2006.

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  July 3, 2016

      Scores of fires were burning along the Russian border with China on May 8, 2006.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  July 3, 2016

        Record Temperatures and Wildfires in Eastern Russia

        Forests and bog land in far eastern Russia have been burning since the beginning of June 2012. Contributing to the record fires have been the record temperatures of this past summer. This summer in Siberia has been one of hottest on record. The average temperature ranged around 93 degrees Fahrenheit and there doesn’t seem to be any break in the weather coming anytime soon.

        Reply
      • – Thanks Bob, it’s amazing how much has/is burned.

        – Wildfires/carbon burning biomass in general — I wonder if any study has been done to compare the amount of carbon, and or ash, has been released from fires that burn more hotter and fiercely due to our controlling/dousing natural fires versus nature just letting them burn out.
        Factor in the many anthropogenic accidental and purposeful fires. And AGW.
        And the natural forest rejuvenation from natural fires.

        Just something that came to mind when considering any fire relatrd carbon budget we try to wrap our minds around these days.🙂

        Reply
  25. Greg

     /  July 3, 2016

    Drove through West Virginia this week on I-64 headed to the new national boy scout high adventure center at Bechtel Summit Reserve. This place is over 14,000 acres, and what struck me about this place, designed to accomodate up to 80,000 scouts and support, is that it is being built on a previous coal strip mine with a beautiful lake at the center of what was a large quarry. That was inspiring to see a new futute for a damaged land.
    On the way there we took an exit to get some snacks and came upon a more and more common a new weird, a town near Sulfer Springs, the epicenter of the flood last week. Everything appeared normal at first but we quickly saw that it was abandoned, the Mcdonald’s, the gas station, the auto repair shop, etc. And then we saw grass stuck 8 feet up in the tree branches and then saw a semi in the creek. The flood had hit here. We found someone who had begun to clean up her store and we bought a bunch of stuff with cash to help her out since it would have spoiled as they had no water or electricity yet and she didn’t want handouts. She shared stories that were terrifying about how fast the waters rose from that little creek and filled the little valley. I sat my son down on the creek’s edge and had the talk with him firmly and confidently. This is climate change son. Don’t let anyone anywhere tell you otherwise. He’s 11. This town was built over generations that never witnessed that creek rise and fill the valley. He got it right there and then. At least 24 souls lost in that region last week, and the woman in that store? Her sister was waiting til the national guard arrived this weekend to get up the mountain and reach her kids, safe but trapped in their house with the only road washed out.

    Reply
    • A revealing report, Greg.
      You might consider passing it around too — letters to the editor — elected officials — interested community groups, etc.
      It’s very relatable and to the point.
      Wonderful.
      DT

      Reply
    • Griffin

       /  July 3, 2016

      Wow Greg. Thank you for sharing this incredibly powerful story.

      Reply
      • Greg

         /  July 4, 2016

        Thank you Griffin and DT. I loved the people I met in West Virginia. They were so welcoming, friendly and proud. They are survivors. It was so clear that those who had hitched themselves to work centered on tourism/adventuring sports were fortunate. The coal areas are just abysmally poor and hard not to feel pity for. The spectacular New River gorge is not to be missed.

        Reply
  26. Jay M

     /  July 3, 2016


    heat dome over central europe?

    Reply
  27. Andy in SD

     /  July 3, 2016

    Overnight Flash Floods Kill 30 People in Northern Pakistan

    Those folks just can’t seem to get a break.

    http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/officials-flash-floods-overnight-killed-30-people-northern-40309701

    Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  July 3, 2016

      50 dead in China –

      Torrential rain to last till Monday: meteorological authority
      Thunderstorms are forecast to hit the provinces of Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guizhou and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from Sunday morning to Monday morning, with precipitation reaching up to 220 millimeters in some areas……………… The province of Hubei, which is intersected by the lower-reaches of the Yangtze River, has been battered by rains for the past 3-days.

      http://english.cri.cn/12394/2016/07/03/3742s932905.htm

      Reply
  28. Colorado Bob

     /  July 3, 2016

    Mendenhall Lake floods following glacial outburst

    http://www.ktva.com/mendenhall-lake-floods-following-glacial-outburst-476/

    Reply
  29. Jeremy

     /  July 3, 2016
    Reply
    • – More likely that WaPo’s Capital Weather Gang threw an anti blogger tantrum.
      A corrective or factual criticism in the interest of science or CC understanding from them might have been helpful.

      Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  July 3, 2016

        Not one word about Watts et al spewing willful ignorant propaganda low these many years.

        Reply
        • Exactly. I’d call the coverage entirely uneven. The level of scrutiny this blog receives demands top-notch scientific research with every post. That’s why I’m such a stickler. Because the media environment is ridiculously adversarial. Watts and these other guys get carte blanche to basically do what they want. Spencer featuring prominently in the WP article after the vast level of public disservice he’s committed? That’s what I’d call utter nonsense. Why even give that guy any more air time? It’s like a slightly off statement by me and a way out statement by PB is being used as a strawman to attack the notion of erosion of seasonality due to human forced climate change. Maybe Jason didn’t intend it that way. But that’s the way it’s being played.

      • ” It’s like a slightly off statement by me and a way out statement by PB … Maybe Jason didn’t intend it that way. But that’s the way it’s being played.”

        Yeah and also, when the piece is published as ‘opinion/commentary’ via a ‘… Gang’ — then add in editors…

        Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  July 3, 2016

        They can say anything they want , But you have to be right every every key stoke . That’s not a bad place to be. As long as I’ve read you this only time you screwed the pooch. Watts and Goodard live in a oily dog whorehouse.

        Reply
        • Well, the other thing is, if you’ve posted something incorrect and you find out that it’s incorrect — then correct it. If you have an opinion that you believe is correct — own it as your view, don’t represent it as the absolute god’s honest truth. Don’t double down on something that’s factually just wrong and just keep repeating it over and over again.

          In any case, we’ve posted approx 950 blogs here. That’s in the range of 200 per year. Total word count is over 1.5 million. In other words equal to enough content to fill 3-4 book length volumes per year. Sysiphus had it easy.

        • … And that doesn’t include approx 10,000 comments in response to all the great stuff you guys post here.

          Gotta say though, that I think you and Mulga quietly warned me on this one. Sometimes it’s tge quiet voices you have to listen to the most carefully.

  30. Colorado Bob

     /  July 3, 2016

    Flash floods, landslides kill at least 50 people in Pakistan, India, officials say

    Flash floods and landslides have killed at least 50 people in northern Pakistan and northern India, officials say.
    Key points:

    At least 43 killed in remote Pakistani village
    More than 40 feared dead in India’s Uttarakhand state
    Thousands believed to be stranded in India

    At least 43 people were killed in Pakistan, most in a remote village that did not receive an evacuation warning before flash floods hit, washing away most of the settlement, officials said.

    The heavy monsoon rains began late on Saturday and were concentrated mainly in the north-western province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which has been badly affected by flooding in recent years that some scientists have linked to climate change.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-04/floods-landslides-kill-dozens-in-pakistan-india/7565920

    Reply
  31. Colorado Bob

     /  July 3, 2016

    Death toll in heavy rains, landslides in China climbs to 61

    Some counties saw record-breaking daily rainfall during the past two days, local weather authorities said on Sunday.

    Combined losses have been estimated at around $1.37 billion. Two rounds of rainstorms are forecast to hit southern regions over the next ten days. Nepartak, the first typhoon of the year, is expected to bring gales and downpours to eastern coastal areas next week.

    http://timesofoman.com/article/87318/World/Asia/Death-toll-in-heavy-rain-landslides-in-China-climbs-to-61

    Reply
  32. Reply
  33. Colorado Bob

     /  July 3, 2016

    This is the 200th Anniv. of the year without summer :

    Setup For Northeast Summer Cold and Hardship

    In the spring of 1815, the Tambora volcano became much more active. On April 10, 1815, there was a massive eruption. The incredible roar of this explosion was heard over 1,000 miles away, and it created a tsunami that killed over 10,000 people around the Indian Ocean. Tambora spewed an overwhelming amount of volcanic ash, debris and gas into the atmosphere.

    For reference, 38 cubic miles of volcanic ash were spewed into the atmosphere from Tambora, as opposed to .3 cubic miles from the Mt. St. Helens eruption, in Washington state, back in 1980.

    The volcanic ash and, to a greater extent, sulfuric acid, blocked incoming solar radiation, resulting in a much cooler earth. The cold spells of 1816, lasting through the winter of 1817, were not confined to the U.S. It also turned very cold in western Europe and parts of Asia, leading to crop failures worldwide.

    Link

    Reply
  34. – A dry 2016 Southern California — San Bernardino:

    Reply
  35. Reply
    • PacificFireExchange ‏@PacificFireSci 14h14 hours ago

      Two #wildfires reported: #Maalaea #maui #kapolei #H1 #oahu be safe!

      Reply
  36. Colorado Bob

     /  July 3, 2016

    Anybody know if this joker is in the climate models ? I’m betting no.

    Vast Peat Fires Threaten Health and Boost Global Warming

    Largest blazes on earth smolder for months in Canada and Indonesia

    June 28, 2016 — As forest fires devastated Fort McMurray, Alberta, last month, a different sort of fire may have started beneath the ground. Peat, a carbon-rich soil created from partially decomposed, waterlogged vegetation accumulated over several millennia and the stuff that fueled Indonesia’s megafires last fall, also appears in the boreal forests that span Canada, Alaska and Siberia. With the intense heat from the Fort McMurray fires, “there’s a good chance the soil in the area could have been ignited,” says Adam Watts, a fire ecologist at Desert Research Institute in Nevada.

    Unlike the dramatic wildfires near Fort McMurray, peat fires smolder slowly at a low temperature and spread underground, making them difficult to detect, locate and extinguish. They produce little flame and much smoke, which can become a threat to public health as the smoke creeps along the land and chokes nearby villages and cities.

    Link

    This was a key reason so many Russians died in 2010. Moscow was once surrounded by these peat bogs. During the 20th century the Soviet government drained them , and there they sat until that summer when 58,000 Russians died , because the air was packed in this toxic soup of poorly com-busted gases, everyone with a lung problem got wiped out.

    Reply
  37. -From above link:
    – ‘Air attack ! FIRE. Hills behind San Roque Santa Barbara. Mission Canyon area’
    – Jul 2016
    – ‘Fire is in area that already burned in 2009.’

    – BOTH fires started by humans using ‘weed whacker’ power tools. Both.

    Reply
  38. Colorado Bob

     /  July 3, 2016

    Here’s how the Caribou die , they can’t paw through the ice crust to the lichens anymore, because winter storms in the Arctic will be more like Oklahoma, first the rain , then the ice.

    Then the cold comes. And it’s all rock hard. This already underway, I’m not “guessing”.

    Pawing into snow is not like chipping ice to get ro food in winter.

    Reply
    • Bob, I remember when you first pointed that out — the cruel and hard truth of the suffering of an innocent.
      Thx.

      Reply
  39. Colorado Bob

     /  July 3, 2016

    God this job sucks.

    Reply
  40. Colorado Bob

     /  July 3, 2016

    God this job sucks.

    Oh to be a happy fool with no bill to pay. And go on my merry way.

    Reply
  41. Colorado Bob

     /  July 3, 2016

    I went and looked up my past here over fire , but it was floods than sealed my readership.

    The Anur floods . Not one person in the West saw them , but RS did. He drove
    the reporting. a month later people saw

    Google it, and ;look at the discharge into the Tartar straight. A huge climate event that only RS saw.

    Reply
    • My dear friend, it’s the only real job in the world for me. Best or worst, it is just something that absolutely must be done.

      30 C temps predicted for both Yamal and Canadian Archipelago within 3-4 days. West Antarctic coastline near Thwaites Glacier to hit 0.4 C in Winter today. All are in the +17-20 C or more above the already hotter than normal ‘average’ range.

      Yet another set of WTF climate moments.

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  July 4, 2016

        30C in the North?? Say it ain’t so, RS! and out here on the Eastern Edge we’re still hovering around 12C to 15C when we’re supposed to be more like 20C +. Daytime temp is forecast to dip to 9C this week. In JULY. I hate to say it, but this is setting up for a repeat of last year’s record cold, damp July—we had warmer weather in February 2016 than July 2015. We went on to have decent summer weather in August through September. My experienced gardener friends are shaking their heads. The seasons are well out of kilter.

        Reply
        • That’s what GFS indicated last night in the nullschool monitor for the July 6 to July 8 time horizon. Same showing up in reanalyzer which uses the same model forecast baseline. Yamal was the location for the contraversial blowholes. The place is basically set to broil in the forecast.

      • Spike

         /  July 5, 2016

        Certainly very abnormal weather in Siberia – even getting into Russian press. Parts a full 15C warmer than here in the UK !

        http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/news/n0690-record-heat-and-abnormal-flooding-as-siberia-gets-freak-weather/

        Reply
    • Syd Bridges

       /  July 4, 2016

      Yes, CB, it was the Amur flood story that first bought me to Robert’s blog too. As I was reading the story, I realized that moisture from four oceans was contributing to one huge flood disaster. Something I wouldn’t have thought possible until I read that article.. Since then, I’ve been an avid reader, both of the articles and the many, many informative comments and linked articles.

      Robert correctly called the huge El Nino, the rise of wildfires, the weather extremes, and the decline of the polar jet stream. What he has described is the reality we are seeing. I certainly cannot say the same for Dr. Roy Spencer.

      Reply
  42. Colorado Bob

     /  July 3, 2016

    If one is a oil paid lair, you lie every day. If one is seeker of truth. Never fail. ever.

    Than is the game.

    Reply
    • Spike

       /  July 5, 2016

      Indeed. After the Brighton bombing the IRA made a statement. They said:

      “Remember we only have to be lucky once. You will have to be lucky always”

      With deniers they never have to be truthful or accurate, for nobody expects it of them and they get the publicity regardless, but we have to strive for it every day and are ignored often even then.

      Even an honest mistake results in overwhelming fire, both hostile and “friendly”.

      But we have resilience, and truth will out.

      Reply
  43. Colorado Bob

     /  July 3, 2016

    This attack on RS smacks of liberal outrage , he has to perfect. in every word and every deed.

    While the paid Koch Heads attack.

    Reply
    • – I figure that RS will come out all the stronger.

      Reply
      • Abel Adamski

         /  July 4, 2016

        Stand Strong R.S
        Well done with honour, self respect and integrity

        Reply
    • Then they fight you…

      Reply
      • 12volt dan

         /  July 4, 2016

        The fact that “they” fight you means your dead on target. while I may not post much I read all your articles and gain from them

        don’t stop. “the truth is out there”

        Reply
        • So I just want to thank everyone for the outpouring of support. I also want to reassure you guys that the efforts here will only be redoubled. For my own part, criticism and even ad hominem attacks are not something that I fear. In fact, it’s to be expected given the currently fractious media environment. One in which fossil fuel special interests still have an oversized influence.

          The important thing to remember is that there is a very strong need to raise public awareness on this issue. Some seem to think that open discussion regarding the murky viscititudes of CC risk is irresponsible. But my view is that it is an absolutely necessary aspect of generating a broad response. We do not limit discussion of risk based on extreme weather to science back rooms, so why should we do so with climate change? In the end, if you hide the risk from public view, then people, cities and states will be caught unawares, unprepared, and disenabled to mitigate and respond to what is an ultimately catastrophic future rapid warming scenario.

          So yes, there is every responsible reason to carry on. We have only begun to write.

      • wili

         /  July 4, 2016

        “We have only begun to write.” Good to hear it. Thanks for your service to the world.

        Reply
  44. – USN – HI – Interesting looking equipment here:

    Reply
  45. – July 1 Guardian book article via climatehawk1:

    The War on Science will change how you see the world

    Every so often a book comes along that changes the way you view the world. The War on Science: Who’s Waging It, Why It Matters, What We Can Do About It by Shawn Otto is one of those rare books. If you care about attacks on climate science and the rise of authoritarianism, if you care about biased media coverage or shake-your-head political tomfoolery, this book is for you.

    Otto, an organizer of the US Presidential Science Debates and a global speaker on science and democracy, started on the journey that led to this book in late 2007, when he noticed that the candidates weren’t talking about any of the big science, technology, health and environmental issues.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/jul/01/the-war-on-science-with-change-how-you-see-the-world?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Reply
  46. Reply
  47. Jay M

     /  July 4, 2016

    TS Agatha and Blas in Pacific off Mexico:

    Reply
    • Jay M

       /  July 4, 2016

      it would be great if calling an emergency was slight exaggeration
      if the legislative bodies were on a responsible track
      if!

      Reply
  48. Cate

     /  July 4, 2016

    Peat bog fires: right on cue, Burns Bog near Vancouver, flares up. (Ah, the irony.)

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/burns-bog-fire-1.3662928

    >>>>>> Located southeast of Vancouver, the 30-square-kilometre nature reserve is one of North America’s largest peat bogs, and the fire can get under the dry peat where it will burn out of sight.
    “If a fire gets underground in that peat, it can run a long way and pop up somewhere else. So it’s a very major concern in that regard,” said Delta Mayor Lois Jackson.
    It’s not the first time Jackson has witnessed a major fire in the area. She was mayor in 2005, when a blaze in Burns Bog grew to more than two square kilometres and took more than a week to put out.<<<<<<<<>>>One firefighter was hospitalized “due to a medical condition aggravated by the environment at the scene of the fire,” the town of Delta said in an online statement. <<<<<

    Reply
    • Cate

       /  July 4, 2016

      Hmmm, that got a bit mashed. It left out my point that peat fires are very smoky, and hence very dangerous, not only for anyone downwind but for the firefighters as well, one of whom was sent to hospital because of “the environment at the scene of the fire.”

      Reply
      • – What they have is a peat bog/urban interface — or some such. Entire communities built upon or adjacent to the peat.
        I remember seeing those type smoke/fires burning in Delta — wet soggy flat areas with billowing smoke plume.
        With weak winds, or an inversion layer, smoke just condenses…

        – Interesting that the place is basically a terraced alluvial plain (Fraser River) with wise pockets of peat bog.
        And, barely above sea leavel, Vancouver airport and its long flat runways is right nearby.

        Reply
      • “… WIDE pockets of peat”

        Reply
      • Reply
  49. Abel Adamski

     /  July 4, 2016

    It has been an interesting time whilst I have been otherwise occupied, unfortunately more climate deniers in our senate.
    However an interesting article
    http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2016/06/the-window-for-avoiding-a-dangerous-climate-change-has-closed/
    Science & Health
    The Window For Avoiding A Dangerous Climate Change Has Closed
    Maddie Stone
    30 June 2016 7:30 PM

    Barring some incredible new carbon capture technology, the window for limiting global warming to less than 1.5C appears to have closed. That’s the stark conclusion of a report out in Nature today, which finds that the carbon reductions pledges penned into the Paris Agreement are ridiculously inadequate for keeping our climate within a safe and stable boundary.

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  July 4, 2016

      Great quote in comments: “Meanwhile countries will continue mass debating.”

      Reply
  50. June

     /  July 4, 2016

    Looking at Climate Reanalyzer, it is rather mind-boggling to see the SST anomalies around the arctic…the Barents Sea, Labrador Sea, and especially the Bering Sea which has been getting warmer and warmer and is now a cherry red. (I tried to copy the image but it didn’t seem to work).

    Reply
    • June

       /  July 4, 2016

      It did work. Anyway, it is very worrisome.

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  July 4, 2016

        Agreed, June, scary heat up north. And looking at all that cool water down through the mid-Altantic—is that within normal ranges, I wonder.

        Reply
      • Shawn Redmond

         /  July 4, 2016

        Cate the blues are below normal.

        Reply
      • Cate

         /  July 5, 2016

        Shawn, yeah, thanks, I’m reading the blues as below average anomalies, but those temps might still be within an expected or “normal” range of lowness, if you get my drift? That’s what I was getting at…🙂

        Reply
      • Shawn Redmond

         /  July 5, 2016

        Sorry Cate lost it in translation.

        Reply
      • Cate

         /  July 5, 2016

        Average vs normal: I’m not using these words scientifically so we may bet getting wires crossed. Different example: say the weather records have established that the “average” summer daytime temp here is 19C. Records also show that most summer days, temps range between about 16C and 23C—so most people would consider these to be “normal” temps for the season (the range might be a bit arbitrary). A temp of 17C would thus be interpreted as “below average” in a strict sense, but still within the “normal” range. A temp of 10C would be way below normal as well as below average. So I’m just wondering what’s the case for those SSTs in the Atlantic. They are below average, yes. But are they below normal, in terms of what past SST data could lead us to expect? Possibly not. I dunno.😀

        Reply
        • There’s a periodic cooling and warming of waters called the North Atlantic Oscillation. Departure from baseline will be determined by where you draw the line. In the context of human forced climate change, it would be most responsible to draw the line as far back as possible since GHG started adding heat forcing circa the late 19th Century.

          It’s also worth noting that the big 2012 surface melt pulse should probably be added in to the current calculation. Measurements taken at any given time should be understood in light of that temporal context.

  51. Climate change makes flood more likely, more damaging, experts say

    “Extreme weather events have become more frequent over the past 40 to 50 years, and this trend is projected to continue,” the report said. “Climate change is expected to have a significant effect on communities, including those in West Virginia. For instance, more frequent intense precipitation events may translate into more frequent flash flooding episodes.”

    – See more at: http://www.wvgazettemail.com/news/20160704/climate-change-makes-flood-more-likely-more-damaging-experts-say#sthash.Q6wdRrJV.dpuf

    Reply
    • Shawn Redmond

       /  July 5, 2016

      I can’t remember which Gwynne Dyer book I read it in, but the west went to Ethiopia during the first famine in the seventies and taught the population better farming practices to feed them selves. For the 40 million at the time it worked well.They didn’t teach them anything about family planning and the new drought comes as predicted it would. Just worsened buy ACD and now there are 80 million to try and feed! ( P.S. it may have been climate wars but not sure, I’ve read most of his writing and as always I’ve passed the books along.)

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  July 5, 2016

        Shawn, oh yes, Gwynne Dyer is pretty awesome. RS. are you familiar with him? Gwynne is a military historian, PhD from Kings College London, taught at Sandhurst, now a journalist—-and he’s a Newfoundlander.😀

        In a recent interview about ISIS, he was asked if militant Islamist terrorism scares him. He said no, only one thing scares him, and it scares the shit out of him, and that’s climate change.

        Reply
        • Kudos to Gwynne. And, yeah, there’s a million reasons more reasons to be worried about climate change — ISIS being a symptom of related instability and threat multiplication is just one of them.

        • And, yah, I’ve read his stuff. Very responsible journalism, IMO.

  52. Colorado Bob

     /  July 4, 2016

    California Drought Causing Trees to Die by the ‘Millions,’ Scientist Says

    Schimel said the death of the trees was caused by a number of factors, related to climate change.

    “These are trees that have been stressed by heat and a lack of water for a number years,” he said. “Some of them died of a lack of water and others died from insects and plants. Trees would normally be resistant to such threats but the drought weakens them.”

    He also said that the map points to what could represent a permanent change in the landscape of the region.

    “The drought has some momentum, there could be a wave of mortality that continues for the next several years,” he said. “The biggest concern here is that the trees that are dying are decades old or even centuries old, and this mortality rate means that the Sierras will be changed during our lifetimes and our kids’ lifetimes.”

    http://abcnews.go.com/US/california-drought-causing-trees-die-millions-scientist/story?id=40317017

    Reply
  53. Colorado Bob

     /  July 4, 2016

    Southern Hemisphere suffers: Tourist attractions altered by climate change

    Wellington — If you’ve booked a ski holiday in the lower parts of the Southern Hemisphere this winter, you better start praying for snow. While SA’s snow-hubs are adding to the natural snowfall with their machine-made flakes, natural ski fields are struggling to open in New Zealand after the first six months of 2016 proved to be the hottest start to a year that scientists have ever recorded.

    Temperatures in the South Pacific nation were 1.4°C above the long-term average for the first half of the year, according to the government-funded National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research.

    http://traveller24.news24.com/Explore/Green/southern-hemisphere-suffers-tourist-attractions-altered-by-climate-change-20160704

    Reply
    • Hilary

       /  July 5, 2016

      “Niwa: June enters record books for warmth and sunshine
      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/article.cfm?c_id=39&objectid=11668586&ref=rss
      Napier had the highest June temperature with 25.1C on June 10.
      Warm oceans, abnormal air pressures and frequent winds from the north helped New Zealand have its third warmest June on record.

      It was also one of the sunniest, with sunshine hours up more than 100 per cent across the country thanks to the dry weather.

      The statistics come from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa), which today released its climate summary for June.

      It said much like May, the warmer than usual ocean surrounding the country not only contributed to unseasonable warmth on land but also created an environment that was more conducive for strong storms.”

      My bosses are heading to the South Is for a pre-booked skiing holiday tomorrow. He made need to change his plans & just go wine tasting instead!

      Reply
  54. Colorado Bob

     /  July 4, 2016

    Watch Live as Juno Enters Jupiter’s Orbit

    http://www.wired.com/2016/07/watch-live-juno-enters-jupiters-orbit/

    Reply
  55. Colorado Bob

     /  July 4, 2016

    Record heat and abnormal flooding as Siberia gets freak weather

    On 1 July Ulan-Ude experienced its highest ever temperature on this day – a tropical 33.8C – causing a performance of the Republic of Buryatia’s first national opera to be cut almost in half because of the stifling heat.

    Unprecedented high temperatures, up to 6C higher than average, have also hit Krasnoyarsk and Irkutsk regions. Siberia’s coldest region – the Sakha Republic, also known as Yakutia – also experienced a highly unusual heatwave.

    At Bestyakh fur farm, the temperature was 32.2C, while Mirny hit 33.6C, Chumpuruk 33.8C, Habardino 34.7C and Kresty 35C.

    http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/news/n0690-record-heat-and-abnormal-flooding-as-siberia-gets-freak-weather/

    Reply
  56. June

     /  July 4, 2016

    I hope I am not out of line for posting this link, but since it is the 4th of July I thought Scribblers would appreciate this essay from 2006 by one of my heroes, the late Howard Zinn.

    Patriotism and the Fourth of July
    By Howard Zinn

    The Declaration of Independence gives us the true meaning of a patriot, someone who supports a country’s ideals, not necessarily its government…

    Should we not begin to redefine patriotism? We need to expand it beyond that narrow nationalism that has caused so much death and suffering. If national boundaries should not be obstacles to trade- some call it “globalization”-should they also not be obstacles to compassion and generosity?

    Reply
  57. Reply
  58. June

     /  July 4, 2016

    From Jeff Masters:

    Chinese Floods Kill 186: Earth’s Costliest and 2nd Deadliest Weather Disaster of 2016

    Torrential monsoon rains along a stalled frontal boundary near the Yangtze River in China have killed 186 people, left 45 people missing, and caused at least $7.6 billion in damage. In the Hubei Province, 1.5 million people have been evacuated or are in need of aid, almost 9,000 houses have collapsed or are seriously damaged and more than 710,000 hectares of crops have been affected…

    https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3346

    Reply
    • Shawn Redmond

       /  July 4, 2016

      I thought the three gorges dam was going to stop this.

      Reply
  59. Via MichaelEMann: Weather related…
    (Moderate snickering only, please.🙂

    Plane flown by Sen. Jim Inhofe runs off runway during landing …

    Harsh weather conditions forced Sen. Jim Inhofe to land his plane, which subsequently ran off the runway, Sunday evening during a recreational flight near Grand Lake.

    Inhofe, 81, was flying the plane near Ketchum with another pilot in a separate plane when inclement weather approached and forced the two to land in difficult conditions…
    The area was under a severe thunderstorm watch…

    http://www.tulsaworld.com/homepagelatest/plane-flown-by-sen-jim-inhofe-runs-off-runway-during/article_40d875aa-1443-5ff0-a8ce-eeadc2184547.html

    Reply
  60. June 30:

    Reply
  61. – More interesting equipment w/ a nod to ‘threat analysis/avoidance’.

    Reply
  62. – So. Cal. Bight methane seeps:

    Reply
    • -So. Cal. Bight FF not far away history:

      Reply
      • – ” … Huntington Beach, Playa Del Rey, Venice and Long Beach were all transformed by the oil boom of the 1920s and ’30s. The oil companies made the money, not the residents. Schools closed, the Venice “Grand Canal” was so full of oil it reportedly caught on fire on more than one occasion. By the 1990s, it was all over. the State Lands Commission denied City of Los Angeles permit applications for slant drilling under the bay, and the shore fields were mostly played out. ”

        http://themalibupost.blogspot.com/2015/05/oil-and-water.

        Reply
  63. Reply
  64. – Oh yeah, here’s the reply from Gavin Schmidt re ‘It’s often worth thinking about spread of opinion on climate change.”.
    Don’t know why I didn’t post it right off – it became part of the Twitter universe as soon as it Tweeted.

    Gavin Schmidt ‏@ClimateOfGavin Jul 2

    @DavidLange2 I’m pretty close to the IPCC in aggregate but there are some impacts that they can’t quantify & so have higher risk #@mtobis

    Reply
  65. – July 4:

    Reply
  66. Andy in SD

     /  July 5, 2016

    East Africa is already the hungriest place on Earth: One in every three people live without sufficient access to nutritious food, according to the United Nations. Crop yields in the region are the lowest on the planet. African farms have one-tenth the productivity of Western farms on average, and sub-Saharan Africa is the only placeon the planet where per capita food production is actually falling.

    Now, climate change threatens to compound those problems by raising temperatures and disrupting the seasonal rains on which many farmers depend.

    http://www.newsweek.com/africa-drought-food-crisis-climate-change-476753

    Reply
    • Jay M

       /  July 5, 2016

      LA is a petrochemical state, balancing the bay region resource consumption empire in CA

      Reply
  67. – Weather W. Pacific:

    Reply
    • Robert Speta ‏@robertspeta 4h4 hours ago

      Eye wall now visible on Microwave imagery for #Nepartak, would expect Typhoon announced today.

      Reply
      • Jay M

         /  July 5, 2016

        well it will be interesting to see the strength of these things this year

        Reply
  68. – Oil Bomb Train Activism Baseball — Seattle, WA USA

    Reply
  69. Colorado Bob

     /  July 5, 2016

    Last month was the hottest June on record in Death Valley National Park, with a sweltering average temperature of 101.9 degrees. June 2016’s temperatures exceeded average June temperatures by about 6 degrees.

    The average of 95.5 degrees had been recorded over the past 105 years. Official weather observations have been recorded at Furnace Creek since 1911.

    Death Valley’s average daily high temperature this June was 115.5 degrees and the average overnight low was 88.2 degrees. In spite of a record-setting average temperature, Death Valley only set a new daily record one day last month, with 126 degrees recorded on June 21.

    http://www.ktnv.com/news/record-breaking-heat-in-death-valley-this-june

    Reply
    • – 6 F — pretty impressive.

      – Sidenote though most likely for other locations: Brings to mind something that happens as the heat rises with some force it en-trains ground level air pollution and carries it aloft to mix with other parts of the atmosphere.
      I came to this sort of conclusion after studying AP behaviors in Santa Barbara and So Cal Bight especially the bowl at southern end of the chronically hot and polluted Central Valley.

      Reply
  70. Colorado Bob

     /  July 5, 2016

    NASA Earth Observatory, July 5, 2016
    El Niño conditions in 2015 and early 2016 altered rainfall patterns around the world. In the Amazon basin, El Niño reduced rainfall during the wet season, leaving the region drier at the start of the 2016 dry season than any year since 2002.
    “Severe drought conditions at the start of the dry season have set the stage for extreme fire risk in 2016 across the southern Amazon,” said Doug Morton, an Earth scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and a co-creator of the fire forecast. The wildfire risk for July to October now exceeds the fire risk in 2005 and 2010—drought years when wildfires burned large swaths of the rainforest.

    Reply
  71. Colorado Bob

     /  July 5, 2016

    Continuous rainfall leaves at least 61 dead in China

    BEIJING, July 3 (Xinhua) — Continuous rainfall over the past two weeks in parts of China has left at least 61 people dead and 14 others missing, local authorities said Sunday. ………………………………… Over 17 million people have been affected by the rain in the two provinces, with 974,000 people relocated. The rain also destroyed over 400,000 rooms and affected 1.4 million hectares of crops.

    Link

    Reply
  72. Cate

     /  July 5, 2016

    More on bog burns, as Burns Bog burns.

    This seems to me to be a looming threat in northern wildfires (eg Canada and Russia), as so much of our northern vegetation consists of bog, which is common in my neck of the woods—it’s hard to imagine they can dry out enough to burn like this.

    http://motherboard.vice.com/en_uk/read/burns-bog-fire-vancouver-climate-change

    Reply
  73. Spike

     /  July 5, 2016

    A sobering paleoclimate article which gets us back to the urgency of action. Something new to me in this:

    “I published a paper with Gifford Miller in Quaternary Science Reviews that tried to look at Arctic amplification versus global mean temperature. Here we suggest that using paleoclimate data for different times in the past, it seems that Arctic summer temperature tends to be 3-4 times as large as the global change (see figure 4).”

    http://www.bitsofscience.org/real-global-temperature-trend-paleoclimate-experts-degrees-pipeline-climate-inertia-7160/

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  July 5, 2016

      Thanks very much for this, Spike. And the whole series it’s from. I’ve been looking for something like this for a long time.

      Reply
      • Kevin Jones

         /  July 5, 2016

        For its’ comprehensiveness and concision, I mean. (Not that anyone here hasn’t made excellent stabs at it over the years!)

        Reply
      • Colorado Bob

         /  July 5, 2016

        I second that as well.

        Reply
  74. utoutback

     /  July 5, 2016

    Climate Change: the missing issue in the 2016 election.
    “our house is on fire and we are arguing over who is more angry.”
    “a slow-motion apocalypse”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/05/climate-change-voters-2016-election-issues

    Reply
  75. Colorado Bob

     /  July 5, 2016

    The crash of Nature –

    Turtle herpes outbreak hints at Great Barrier Reef contamination

    It’s a turtle tragedy. Tumours are crippling an increasing number of green sea turtles on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, with pollution being investigated as the prime culprit.

    The animals have a turtle-specific herpesvirus that causes fibropapillomatosis – a condition in which disfiguring tumours grow on the eyes, flippers, tail, shell or internal organs.

    “The tumours are benign but can grow up to 30 centimetres in size and block the turtles’ vision, says Karina Jones of James Cook University in Townsville, Australia. “This means they can’t find food or see predators or boats.”

    Turtles with tumours are also more vulnerable to other infections, she says. “Severely affected turtles are quite skinny and have other pathogens affecting them – that’s why they die.”

    Link

    Reply
    • Climate change and toxic effluent is a witches brew. The GBR is endangered. They may not announce it this year. But all too presently the announcement will come.

      Reply
  76. Colorado Bob

     /  July 5, 2016

    About 18 inches of rain fell in Macheng, China, in the four days ending 8 a.m. local time on Monday, said weather.com meteorologist Chris Dolce.

    Link

    Reply
  77. – Wildfires USA

    Reply
    • “… between 1973 and 1982, the number of large fires in the west has increased more than 500 percent across the region and the area burned has increased more than 1,200 percent. But certain areas have seen a much larger uptick – the area burned in the northern Rockies is up 3,000 percent and in the Northwest, 5,000 percent.’

      Reply
    • “… they are also starting to see another trend that wasn’t visible in their research a decade ago. The areas burned by large fires are now increasing not just in mountain forests but also in grass and shrublands at lower elevations.

      “Our review of historical data demonstrates how closely linked drier years and earlier springs are to the frequency of wildfires,” Westerling wrote. “Given projections for further drying in the West due to human-induced warming, this study points to a future with more wildfire activity.”

      Reply
  78. Colorado Bob

     /  July 5, 2016

    Scientist Slams Science Orgs Pressuring Congress On Global Warming: ‘A Blatant Misuse Of Scientific Authority’

    Professional science organizations’ calling on Republican lawmakers to stop questioning climate science is a “a blatant misuse of scientific authority,” according to a prominent climate scientist.

    “This statement is a blatant misuse of scientific authority to advocate for specific socioeconomic policies,” Judith Curry, a Georgia Tech climate scientist, wrote of a letter sent by dozens of scientific groups to Congress last week.

    Read more: The Daily Crawler

    Reply
    • – A bit odd, this one. It’s been on Twitter and is proving quite sticky. I think it’s more a distraction than anything — and sound a bit ‘trolly’. Some say it’s good that it’s being talked about though.

      Reply
    • Colorado Bob

       /  July 5, 2016

      Reply
      • Jacob

         /  July 5, 2016

        That is perfect, CB. Maybe I am just living under a rock but that image should be everywhere (where there is denial of man-made climate change), if it isn’t already.

        Reply
    • Judith Curry — yet one more climate misinformer blatantly abusing language in an attempt to enable republican immorality.

      Reply
      • “Judith Curry — yet one more climate misinformer blatantly abusing language in an attempt to enable republican immorality.”

        Yes, I’d endorse that characterization. She’s been moving steadily farther and farther from mainstream science for several years now. My guess is, she’s been angling for a position in a Republican Administration.

        Reply
    • 12volt dan

       /  July 5, 2016

      send her the letter too

      Reply
  79. – Coal Pollution Without Borders:

    Reply
    • – Via climatehawk1

      Reply
    • “Lung-penetrating dust from coal-fired power plants in the European Union claims some 23,000 lives a year and racks up tens of billions of euros in health costs, an NGO report said Tuesday.”

      Reply
  80. 12volt dan

     /  July 5, 2016

    Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Tuesday reiterated his opposition to the route of Enbridge Inc’s (ENB.TO) Northern Gateway oil pipeline, casting further doubt on the prospects of a project fiercely opposed by environmentalists.

    Canada’s former Conservative government had approved Northern Gateway, which would carry oil from the Alberta oil sands to a port in British Columbia for export.

    But Trudeau, elected last year, has said he opposed the pipeline. His Liberal government has promised a moratorium on oil tanker traffic along the coast of northern British Columbia, a policy seen making the pipeline unfeasible

    http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/7/5/Trudeau-reiterates-opposition-to-Enbridges-Northern-Gateway-pipeline-route.aspx

    Reply
  81. – Update – Canada – Bog fires/smoke — Urban Vancouver, BC is having some serious problems.

    Reply
  82. – Taiwan and Eastern China

    Reply
  83. – Center for Biological Diversity,

    Agreement: Monarch Butterfly to Get Endangered Species Act Protection Decision by 2019

    Butterfly Declined by 80 Percent Over Past Decades

    Reply
  84. Colorado Bob

     /  July 5, 2016

    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    061800Z — 21.4N 125.9E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT

    https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/JTWC/#_48_INSTANCE_0SiamlX2KcM6_=https%3A%2F%2Fmetoc.ndbc.noaa.gov%2FProductFeeds-portlet%2Fimg%2Fjtwc%2Fhtml%2Fcoop.jsp%3F

    Reply

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