July was the Hottest Month Ever Recorded; 2016 Set to Make 1998 Look Cold by Comparison

July 2016 was the warmest July in 136 years of modern record-keeping, according to a monthly analysis of global temperatures by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. NASA GISS.

2016 — 99 Percent Likely to be the Hottest Year on Record by a Big Margin

In 1998, the world went through a big heat wave. In just one year, global temperatures jumped by about 0.15 degrees Celsius above previous record highs. Riding on the wave of an extraordinarily powerful El Nino, atmospheric CO2 that was then in the range of about 365 parts per million (and CO2e — CO2-equivalent greenhouse gasses — in the range of 415 ppm) pushed global temperatures to around 0.9 C above 1880s averages by year-end.

This extreme heat set off a rash of weather and climate disasters around the world. A global coral bleaching event sparked off. At that time it was only one of a few ever recorded and was seen by scientists as one of the early warning signs of global warming. Droughts, floods, and fires occurred with a then-unprecedented frequency. Some began to wonder if the bad effects of climate change were starting to take hold.

But 1998 was just a mild foretaste of what was to come. In the years that followed, new global temperature records were breached time and time again. 1998 was swiftly surpassed by 2005 which was again beaten out by 2010, then 2014 and finally 2015. Now, 2016 looks like it will end around 1.2 C hotter than 1880s averages. It appears that in just three years, the world will have warmed by more than 0.2 C. In the 18-year period since 1998 the world’s long and worsening hot spell will have increased its top range by as much as 0.3 degrees C, or more than 30 percent.

Gavin Schmidt, NASA GISS head, tells this tale far more succinctly, stating:

July data are out, and what do you know, still 99% chance of a new annual record in 2016.

2016 Hottest Year on Record

(Can you pick out 1998 on this graph? Look hard. You might find it… Driven on by record levels of atmospheric greenhouse gasses in the range of 490 ppm CO2e, global temperatures are in the process of spiking to around 1.2 C above 1880s averages in 2016. Climate scientists like Gavin Schmidt indicate that there’s a 99 percent chance that this year will be the hottest ever recorded. Image source: Gavin Schmidt.)

Another way to sum up how much the world has warmed since 1998 is the observation that the coolest months and years going forward are likely to be hotter than 1998 average temperatures. In other words, if we saw 1998 global temperatures now, it would be anomalously cold. The Earth’s natural cycling between La Nina and El Nino is, at this time, highly unlikely to produce a year as cool as 1998.

Hitting a New High Mark for Global Heat

As for 2016, the unbroken tally of record hot months has grown incredibly long. July itself, in NASA’s most recent announcement, has come in at about 1.06 C hotter than 1880s averages (and 0.84 C hotter than NASA’s 20th-century baseline). This makes the month we just went through the hottest month ever recorded in the global climate record by a substantial 0.1 C margin (beating out July of 2011 as the previous record-holder).

GISTEMP Anomaly

(Due to strong land-surface warming during summer in the Northern Hemisphere, July is typically the hottest month of the year. July 2016 was both the hottest July on record and the hottest ever month in the past 136 years of recordkeeping. Image source: NASA.)

At this point, you have to go all the way back to September of 2015 to find a month that isn’t now a new record-holder. And, as you can see in the month-to-month comparison graph above by NASA, many of the recent records have been very strong indeed.

Such heat has brought with it every manner of trouble. From droughts in the Amazon rainforest, to record-low sea ice levels, to worsening droughts, to a global rash of floods and wildfires, to the longest-running coral bleaching event ever recorded, to expanding ocean dead zones and lakes and riverways choked with algae, to tropical viruses like Zika marching northward as anthrax-carrying deer are coughed up out of the thawing permafrost, to the loss and destabilization of glacial ice around the planet, the picture of the world in 2016 is one of a place suffering far greater and wider-ranging climate disruptions than during 1998.

Now, given the considerable difference in impacts over just an 18-year time period and an approximate 0.3 C temperature increase, imagine what another 18 years and another 0.3 C or greater would unleash.

Portrait of the Hottest Month Ever — More Arctic Warming

July was just one part of this big upward jump in global temperatures and related extreme climate conditions. The distribution of that heat showed that climate-change-related polar amplification was still in full swing up north.

Above-average temperatures continued to concentrate near the vulnerable Arctic. NASA shows that temperatures in the region of 75 to 90° North Latitude ranged from around 1.4 to 2.1 C above normal. Such record-warm readings were likely due to loss of sea ice and consequent albedo reductions in the region of the Beaufort Sea and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (see Arctic map here). Peak temperature departures in this zone hit as high as 7.7 C above average for the month — pretty extreme for northern polar July.

Conversely, a small pool of slightly cooler-than-normal readings hovered over the East Siberian Sea. But this small region was far milder, achieving only a peak 2 C departure below 20th-century norms.

GISS Temperature Map July 2016

(The hottest month on record globally shows highest above-average temperatures exactly where we don’t need them — in the Arctic north of Alaska, Canada, and Greenland, near the Yamal Peninsula and the Kara Sea, and in the south over West Antarctica. Image source: NASA.)

The broader region from Latitudes 35° S to 75° N saw temperatures ranging between 0.7 and 1.4 C above the NASA 20th-century baseline. This included the Equator at around 0.8 C above average despite the cooling effects of the Eastern Pacific which was starting to tilt toward La Nina conditions.

From 35° S to the pole, temperatures rapidly fall off for July with the region from 75° to 90° S seeing 1 to 1.6 C negative temperature departures. It’s worth noting that this Antarctic region was the only area to experience widespread below-average temperatures on the globe. Even so, West Antarctica stood as a noted warm outlier in this single large cool pool, with temperatures for most of the Antarctic Peninsula and adjacent inland regions hitting 4 C or more above normal.

Outlook — Predicted La Nina is Weak; Northern Polar Amplification is Strong

Cooler surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific are predicted to produce a weak, late La Nina for 2016 and early 2017. This event is not expected to be anywhere near as strong as the significant 2010 to 2012 La Nina. As a result, it will likely have a lesser overall downward effect on global surface temperatures.

GFS global temperature tracking

(GFS global temperature tracking indicates that August is likely to be as warm or slightly warmer than July, which puts this month within striking distance of another consecutive monthly global high temperature record. Image source: Karsten Haustein Climate Reanalysis.)

On the other hand, as August and September roll into October and November, Northern Hemisphere polar amplification is likely to intensify and this will tend to further buffer the downward temperature swing typically produced by La Nina. Therefore, it’s not likely that August to December temperatures will fall outside of the 0.95 to 1.15 C June-July temperature differential from 1880s ranges.

Current GFS model tracking for August (see image above) hints at a likely range between 1.05 and 1.15 C above 1880s values, which means that August is currently on track to challenge previous all-time temperature records for the month and that 2016 is continuing to solidify its extreme heat gains.

Links:

NASA GISS

Gavin Schmidt

Karsten Haustein Climate Reanalysis

BOM ENSO Forecast

NOAA ESRL

Hat tip to Colorado Bob

Hat tip to DT Lange

Hat tip to Ridley Jack

Leave a comment

83 Comments

  1. No comment…
    Good job, Robert.🙂

    PNW PDX 4-cast: thu-fri-sat-sun;
    F 98-96-101-94

    Reply
  2. Hot dry So Cal: 2016

    Reply
    • Sean Breslin Verified account ‏@Sean_Breslin 6m6 minutes ago

      #BluecutFire: All 4,500 residents of Wrightwood, CA ordered to evacuate, according to @KTLA.

      ###

      #BlueCutFire – High temps helped fire spread from 5 acres to 5,500 acres within hours. #climatechange

      Reply
    • SB County Sheriff Verified account ‏@sbcountysheriff 5m5 minutes ago

      #BlueCutFire – 6,500 acres w zero containment if you are under mandatory evac pls adhere to the evac orders as the fire is spreading quickly

      Reply
    • Klaus ‏@neoncat86 10m10 minutes ago

      #BlueCutFire is FREAKING ME OUT

      Reply
  3. Sheri

     /  August 16, 2016

    Thank you , Robert for the information. However, the information for the rest of this year, I think is the most frightening news of all the temp news this year. I was afraid it might turn out this way, no wonder I feel the world is going mad and I am determined not to go that way yet. Don’t get wrong, I am of stable mental and physical health but the stresses of this summer are extremely stressful.

    Phoenix is at day 29 of 110 and above today, not in a row though. 33 is the record from 2012? Not sure about that year.
    Hanging on here, Sheri

    Reply
    • For some reason, these were being held in queue. I think I’ve got them all approved now. Sorry for the delay.

      With Monsoon season settling in, that Phoenix record looks like it will be close. As for the global temp forecast. Yeah, this is a rough year. Next few (2017, 2018, 2019) should back off a bit. Maybe average between 1 to 1.1 C above 1880s. If not, then we’ll know it’s really bad.

      Reply
  4. Traffic fleeing the fire:

    Reply
  5. redskylite

     /  August 16, 2016

    Thanks for a great job R.S in highlighting the steady climb up the ladder . . . . . if, where and when will it end ? Keeps me awake many nights.

    New (and potentially useful for concerned travelers) study on Zika. . . .

    New Map Predicts Spread of Zika Virus

    An international group of scientists led by the University of Kansas has created a detailed map that shows areas of the world most likely to see cases of Zika virus disease.

    http://www.sci-news.com/medicine/map-spread-zika-virus-04106.html

    Reply
  6. Colorado Bob

     /  August 17, 2016

    Lake Mead likely to skirt shortage line for another year

    Despite sinking to a record low in early July, Lake Mead should be just full enough on Jan. 1 to avoid an unprecedented federal shortage declaration for at least one more year.

    Decisive projections released Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation call for the reservoir east of Las Vegas to start 2017 with a surface elevation of about 1,079 feet above sea level. That’s roughly 4 feet above the line that would force Nevada and Arizona to cut their Colorado River water use.
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    Under guidelines adopted in 2007, the bureau uses its August projections for Lake Mead to determine whether to declare a shortage. If the lake’s surface was expected to be below elevation 1,075 on Jan. 1, Nevada would be forced to cut its river use by 4 percent while Arizona would take an 11 percent cut.

    http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/nevada/lake-mead-likely-skirt-shortage-line-another-year

    Reply
  7. g. orwell

     /  August 17, 2016

    R.S.: W/O reference to the current topic : you’re productivity/reach is beyond extraordinary. Best to ya.

    Reply
    • 😉 someone said I work as hard as Elon Musk. My wife probably would agree with that statement. For my part, I never feel like I do enough…

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  August 17, 2016

        Robert, you are a human powerhouse. Would the world could harness the energy you put into your work on this climate crisis. We’d get to zero emissions in no time!🙂

        Reply
  8. Sheri

     /  August 17, 2016

    Thanks,Robert. I have a question that is relevant to the projection you have about the last 5 months of the year: Is it possible we’ll be as wrm as last 5 months of 2015 or warmer? I know that’s asking for a prediction about the future but are these reasonable possibilities?
    sheri

    Reply
  9. Andy_in_SD

     /  August 17, 2016

    Zillow has done some number crunching on pending property losses coming up in the next few decades. As this state change takes hold as the new normal (rain bombs, insta-floods, king tide invasions), how will insurance companies react? What will happen to policies and premiums going forward?

    A report released earlier this month by the real estate sales company Zillow predicted that almost 1.9 million homes, worth a combined $882 billion, would be lost to the rising sea levels — and the flooding likely to follow — that climate scientists expect to see by the year 2100.

    If sea levels rise as much as climate scientists predict by the year 2100, almost 300 U.S. cities would lose at least half their homes, and 36 U.S. cities would be completely lost.
    One in eight Florida homes would be underwater, accounting for nearly half of the lost housing value nationwide.

    http://www.zillow.com/research/climate-change-underwater-homes-12890/

    Reply
    • Andy_in_SD

       /  August 17, 2016

      Reply
      • Interesting. Look at the Florida numbers — 12.6 percent of housing underwater. Just nuts. And from this nearly a million people displaced.

        New Jersey at 7.35 percent, Hawaii at 9 percent, Louisiana at 6 percent, South Carolina at 4 percent and Delaware, Maryland and Mass at 3 percent round out the other big ones.

        This from a relatively moderate 6 feet of sea level rise. In my view, if we get anywhere close to BAU warming, that number could be a bit conservative.

        I wonder if the definition of ‘homes’ is based on single family structures? Does this add in apartment buildings and condos, for example?

        Reply
    • Spike

       /  August 17, 2016

      Tweet by Climate Hawk1 of climatecodered’s article on the coastal flooding threat to China.

      Researchers say that by 2050, regional sea-level rises in China’s three most vulnerable regions including the PRD will be half to one metre, and “large areas and a great number of cities…will be beneath the sea water despite of all the present tide-and-flood control facilities”. And that will include China’s manufacturing heartland, which is responsible for 40% of the nation’s exports.

      Reply
  10. Andy_in_SD

     /  August 17, 2016

    Here are 3 sentences from an article about the potential impact of raising atmospheric CO2. There are 6 authors of the paper, one is a guy called James Hanson from Goddard Spaceflight Center. This article came out August 22, 1981 when atmospheric CO2 was 335 to 340.

    ===================================================================

    A team of Federal scientists says it has detected an overall warming trend in the earth’s atmosphere extending back to the year 1880. They regard this as evidence of the validity of the ”greenhouse” effect, in which increasing amounts of carbon dioxide cause steady temperature increases.

    Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which is primarily a result of mankind’s burning of fuels, is thought to act like the glass of a greenhouse. It absorbs heat radiation from the earth and its atmosphere, heat that otherwise would dissipate into space. Other factors being equal, the more carbon dioxide there is in the atmosphere, the warmer the earth should become, according to the theory.

    As ”an appropriate strategy,” the report proposes emphasis on energy conservation and development of alternative energy sources while using fossil fuels ”as necessary” in the coming decades.

    http://www.nytimes.com/1981/08/22/us/study-finds-warming-trend-that-could-raise-sea-levels.html

    Reply
    • I have a bit of nostalgia re-reading this. It was one of my early introductions to human-forced warming as a kid. We spent the rest of the 80s and 90s and most of the 2000s going in the wrong direction…

      Reply
      • Andy_in_SD

         /  August 17, 2016

        335 to 340 CO2, doesn’t that seem like 1000 years ago now?

        Reply
        • danabanana

           /  August 17, 2016

          No Andy, just 35 years ago… O.o

        • Well, it does seem like another age. And from a certain way of measuring climate ages, the atmospheric greenhouse gas measure, it was.😉

      • danabanana

         /  August 17, 2016

        Wrong direction indeed. Growing up in a society pressuring us to buy, consume and drive didn’t help anyone.

        Reply
    • That was when you had REAL arctic blasts that could deliver cold indices of -70F in places like Northern Kentucky (the great freeze of 1983). Even Miami-Dade County froze!

      Reply
  11. Andy_in_SD

     /  August 17, 2016

    Look at the difference in sedimentary outflows as well the difference in dark snow.
    Scroll northwards on that west coast, and take note of this along the way. When you get to Jakobshavn, tack inland for a moment. Check the size and number of melt ponds, and the difference. Now look further north on the coast, just inland from the island. There is a feature which looks like a big old eye ball or something like it. Check the annual change on it’s outflow compared to 2015 (or other prior years).

    http://www.arctic.io/explorer/8-8/2016-08-15;2015-08-15/9-N65.11245-W51.11446

    Reply
  12. Ridley Jack

     /  August 17, 2016

    Hey Mr Scribble great article what did you think of the link I sent you? And also of course it’s still very early but 2016 will most likely finish in the range 1.00 to 1.10 C 1.2 to 1.3 above 1880s values my question is do you think 2017 will be near the level of warmth 2015 ended up of course that all depends on how strong the la nine gets give me some scenarios thank you very much

    Reply
    • 2016 will almost certainly significantly exceed 2015 global average temperatures. Thanks for the link in the previous post. Great info.

      Reply
      • Ridley Jack

         /  August 17, 2016

        Oh Ya for sure but 2017 don’t you think it will be interesting to see how far back the global temperatures go as of right now it seems were in for a weak La Nina what do you think? And how bout all the fires happening in California at the moment. Thanks again.

        Reply
        • 2017 will probably see a 0.1 to 0.2 C drop off from 2016. The predicted weak La Nina should mute the drop-off effect somewhat.

    • Andy_in_SD

       /  August 17, 2016

      I’ve been reading the La Nina is looking to be a weak one this time around. Time will tell, but it is looking like a weak event atm.

      Reply
  13. Andy_in_SD

     /  August 17, 2016

    I was wondering….

    We’re seeing quite a few rain bombs this year in various cities worldwide. Now rain bombs probably do not seek out human civilization like homing pigeons. So there are likely quite a few occurring that we are not aware of.

    That would be interesting if it were plotted over the years. Global rain bombs per year, average temperature, and CO2(e).

    Reply
    • Andy in SD:

      They have been hitting here in the form of huge cloud mass t-storms that blow in and dump 2-3″ in twenty minutes. They are not reported in any news I’ve heard due to the nearest city with a tv station being 50 miles south in Spokane which has a completely different weather pattern being in the flats. Nothing except word of mouth or being under one.

      A mass will roar in, pound here for maybe a few mile-long front in length. One of the t-storms that blew in with huge bolts and a massive deluge wasn’t even seen 6 miles north along the same ridgeline. A teacher friend at the local school said they saw some clouds roll in to the south but didn’t even hear any thunder.

      People I know have been losing steeper-graded driveways in literally minutes the last two weeks.

      I get the feeling there is quite a bit more of these rain bombs dropping that just isn’t making the news channels.

      Reply
      • Andy_in_SD

         /  August 17, 2016

        I grew up in the PNW and spent many summers between Okanogan and the Selkirks. I have no recollection of such things at that time (the 1970’s). I suspect as well that there is a lot more than meets the news.

        Reply
        • danabanana

           /  August 17, 2016

          We’re in uncharted territory… we will likely see events not seen by any hominid.

      • George W. Hayduke

         /  August 18, 2016

        I’m east of you in west central Montana and we’ve had similar events roll through our valley. Deluges for 15-30 minutes then sun 30 minutes after that. We’ve also had major wind events that start up very suddenly and over the last 2 years done major damage. Last year I was walking around the block and noticed a sound, like an airplane landing, but it didn’t fade, I told my daughter we have to get inside. 5 minutes after getting inside a hail storm so sudden and intense unleashed on our neighborhood. My wife witnessed none of it 5 miles west, I’ve lived in our town 42 years and the weather in the last 2-4 years has been so far out of the ordinary I take any little changes very seriously.

        Reply
    • It’s mostly the town and city stations that catch these big events. In regions like Siberia, the Northwest Territory, the Outback, and other remote locals it’s likely we’re missing a good number. That said, the model rainfall maps do provide a decent broad estimate even if they’ve tended to miss some of the spike values lately.

      Reply
  14. Exxon Baton Rouge refinery shuts CDU due to flooding: sources

    ExxonMobil Corp shut a crude distillation unit at its 502,500 barrel per day (bpd) Baton Rouge refinery on Tuesday as flooding disrupted operations at a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) storage facility, sources familiar with plant operations said.

    An Exxon spokeswoman declined on Tuesday to discuss operations at the Baton Rouge, Louisiana refinery.

    “We continue to meet our contractual commitments,” said Exxon’s Lana Venable.

    Continued disruption of operations at the Sorrento, Louisiana Storage Facility by the floods could force Exxon to further cut production at the Baton Rouge refinery due lack of storage for LPG produced by the refinery, the sources said.

    Exxon shut the 90,000 bpd CDU on Tuesday, according to energy industry intelligence service Genscape.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-refinery-operations-exxon-batonrough-idUSKCN10S0EK?feedType=RSS&feedName=environmentNews

    Reply
    • Until Tuesday, the deadly floods had not directly affected production at the refineries where flooding is most severe.

      Motiva Enterprises [MOTIV.UL] 235,000 bpd Convent, Louisiana refinery reduced staffing to essential personnel, sources familiar with Motiva operations said on Tuesday.

      Multiple roadways near the refinery are impassable due to the floods and the homes of employees have been inundated.

      Reply
    • Flood, fire and drought. As these grow more extreme, they’ll tend to disrupt fossil fuel infrastructure more and more. Continuing to run the infrastructure to produce oil, gas and coal at the current high rates compounds the problem of warming. It’s a vicious cycle that makes historical references to the ‘resource curse.’ Look tame. We’d be very wise to reduce consumption as swiftly as possible while managing a rapid energy switch.

      Reply
  15. – California State[s] of Emergency mounting:

    Governor Brown Declares State of Emergency in Lake County Due …
    Imperial Valley News-Aug 15, 2016

    Sand Fire: California declares state of emergency in Los Angeles …
    89.3 KPCC-Jul 26, 2016

    Aug 16, 2016

    Reply
  16. Zack Labe ‏@ZLabe 2h2 hours ago

    @ZLabe to give some context, drops this large so late in the melt season are unusual… (only three 24-hr 100k+ drops since 2002 from 8/16-)

    Reply
    • wili

       /  August 17, 2016

      It’s about to drop into the second-lowest level soon…and then…?

      Reply
    • 110K drops in a single day this late in the season are very rare. But this storm is generating what they call ‘flash melting’ — periods why the ice just simply disappears. It will probably take about a week before we get a full accounting of all the possible losses. But satellite observation indicates very severe reductions in the Chukchi-ESS-Beaufort and in the large bite running out from the Laptev. We also see some odd and disturbing thinning near the pole and on southward toward the Laptev, Kara, and Barents.

      People have talked about polynya formation at the pole. But this year it’s more just that the polar region is an area of very low ice concentration with big one-mile or more gaps forming in a highly mobile ice flow that sloshes back and forth over the region. In other words, there’s basically no contiguous ice left at the pole. It’s a sea of ice cubes and open water.

      Model essays now agree that there’s another big storm on the way in the 8-9 day timeframe. This is still far out and as a result uncertain. However, another big blow on top of this one would be telling.

      I think this storm puts 2016 in the running to approach or beat 2007 and possibly dig down into the gap between 2007 and 2012. A second, more powerful, storm would have a profound additional impact on the highly dispersed ice — especially in the thin ice sectors in the ESS, Beaufort, and Chukchi — while also likely opening up the big gap that is now forming near the pole.

      The season just became very dynamic. But in a pretty bad kind of way.

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  August 17, 2016

        Arctic storm 8-9 days out? Let’s keep an eye on Crystal Serenity in the NW Passage then.

        Reply
  17. Check this out:Gov. Brown Press Ofc Retweeted

    Reply
  18. Report Questions Texas Regulators’ Handling of Flood-Related Oil ‘Mess’

    Internal emails show Texas energy regulators describing a “mess” of leaking crude oil heading downstream near Houston following heavy storms in May, raising new questions about how the state has handled flood-related spills visible in aerial photographs, a newspaper reported on Aug. 14.

    The Texas Railroad Commission did not answer specific questions from the El Paso Times about whether the state levied any fines or if regulators know how much oil had escaped into the San Jacinto River. The agency also would not address whether steps were taken to look for pollution downstream, where upscale houses are nestled against the shoreline.
    http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southcentral/2016/08/16/423418.htm

    Reply
    • The above flood was in June, 2016
      El Paso Times
      AUSTIN — In June, as floodwaters on the San Jacinto River receded, a geoscientist with the Texas Railroad Commission warned colleagues that an oil spill had escaped into Lake Houston. The commission could expect a rash of calls from people returning home, he said in an internal email.
      -elpasotimes.com/story/news/2016/08/13/regulators-saw-lake-houston

      Reply
    • This kind of special treatment and protection of the oil industry is part of what makes it so difficult to rapidly transition away from fossil fuels. How can we execute a rapid transition when we look the other way as rivers are polluted even as we continue to subsidize the whole mess? Part of breaking away from a harmful dependency is to remove the behaviors that enable it.

      Reply
  19. I see a couple of trains of freight cars in the foreground. But any oil bomb trains could encounter the same situation.

    Reply
  20. Spike

     /  August 17, 2016

    On forests in Oregon and more broadly in the US. “Landscape triage is not an attractive future. It would be better not to have make difficult decisions. It would be better to have unlimited resources to save every forests. I fear though that this future will be a reality sooner than we expect.”

    http://blog.ucsusa.org/science-blogger/climate-change-and-the-future-of-oregon-forests

    Reply
  21. Colorado Bob

     /  August 17, 2016

    Astrophysicist destroys climate change troll with brilliant comeback

    Here’s a potential lesson for all the climate change sceptics out there.

    When theoretical cosmologist Katie Mack was targeted by a climate change troll, she hit back with the best possible answer.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/17/astrophysicist-destroys-climate-change-troll-with-brilliant-come/

    Reply
  22. Colorado Bob

     /  August 17, 2016

    Slower snowmelt affects downstream water availability in western mountains

    “As the climate warms, there is actually a slower snowmelt – both in timing and rates, which makes for a less efficient streamflow,” Adrian Harpold, ecohydrologist at the University of Nevada, Reno said. Harpold, who initiated the study two years ago at the University of Colorado Boulder, is a co-author of the paper published in AGU publications Geophysical Research Letters.

    “I know, it’s counterintuitive, but with a warming climate snowmelt starts sooner in the season, and at a slower rate because the warming occurs earlier when days are shorter and we have less sunlight,” he said. “What makes runoff less efficient is that slower snowmelt reduces the amount of moisture being pushed deep into the subsurface where it is less likely to evaporate”

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-08-slower-snowmelt-affects-downstream-availability.html#jCp

    Reply
  23. PlazaRed

     /  August 17, 2016

    Tip of another kind of “Iceburg,” here. Tourists paying vast amounts of cash to travel the north west passage in huge 13 deck cruse liners.
    They say the minimum polution but we know different and of course while the maximum cash is being taken in!
    This will be the first of a multitude and then the stop of ports of call to be built and of course all the “nasty local things” kept well out of their way. Before long this type of cruse will probably become a package holiday.
    Note they say that Scientists will be on board!

    http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/the-worlds-most-dangerous-cruise-1070-capacity-ship-takes-on-the-northwest-passage/ar-BBvGnOR?li=BBoPOOl

    Reply
    • miles h

       /  August 17, 2016

      must confess to a certain delight in hearing about the big arctic storms – cant help hoping they have a miserable time on their absurd cruise.

      Reply
  24. Colorado Bob

     /  August 17, 2016

    Image Reveals the Consequence of Louisiana’s Flooding

    The storm should serve as a warning to residents, Louisiana Insurance Commissioner Jim Donelon told The Times-Picayune:

    “These events are showing repeatedly how uninsured we are. [Flood insurance] is the best insurance investment you can make anywhere in the state. It truly is.”

    http://www.attn.com/stories/10764/louisiana-flooding-damages-at-least-forty-thousand-homes

    Reply
  25. Colorado Bob

     /  August 17, 2016

    In the past five days, Manila has recorded in excess of 250mm of rain – more than half the average for the month of August. Heavier rain has fallen further north in Luzon: in the province of Pangasinan, Dagupan city has been inundated by 91 percent of its monthly rainfall.

    In Coron, on Busuanga Island in the central Philippines, the recorded rainfall from the last seven days was 450mm, or 97 percent of its average rainfall for the whole month.

    For another comparison, consider the amount of rain that fell from the most recent typhoon. At the very beginning of August. Typhoon Nida (locally known as Carina) briefly made landfall in northeast Luzon, leaving between 250 and 300mm of rain behind.

    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/08/enhanced-habagat-floods-manila-160816104315151.html

    Reply
  26. Colorado Bob

     /  August 17, 2016

    Record-breaking heat to scorch Pacific Northwest late this week

    The clock-wise flow around a building high pressure system will send temperatures soaring past the century mark in some places.

    “The heat will peak on Friday and Saturday,” Adamson said, as a northeasterly breeze will allow the air to warm as it moves down the slopes of the Cascades.

    Highs are expected to soar into the 100s from Medford to Portland, Oregon, with low 90s expected farther north in Seattle.

    Even areas along the Washington and Oregon coasts, which are typically kept cool by the Pacific Ocean influence, will reach the low to mid-80s.

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/record-breaking-heat-to-scorch-pacific-northwest-late-week-seattle-portland/59521676

    Reply
  27. Colorado Bob

     /  August 17, 2016

    Homes burn, thousands flee as out-of-control brush fire chars 30000 acres in Cajon Pass

    30,000 acres burn in 24 hours, man what a number.

    Reply
  28. Jimbot

     /  August 17, 2016

    Hi R.S.

    Appreciate all your efforts here to keep everyone who’s at least trying to pay attention informed. However, in your essay, your guess of 0.3 degrees C rise for the next 18 years ( same as the previous 18 years ) seems a little too conservative to me.

    For instance, polar ice sheet melt is thought to be doubling every ten years now. What would cause that I wonder if we had a linear temperature increase going on?

    Reply
    • Actually the given value was 0.3 C or greater in the context of understanding what such a temperature rise would be like. Your own characterization of my writing ‘as a prediction’ is therefore a bit off. I’m asking the reader to imagine what another 0.3 would look like…

      Reply
  29. miles h

     /  August 17, 2016

    im curious about what others here think about this…. i know that taking a global average of temps is pretty much the only viable way of describing what is happening, but given that the anatarctic continues to have below-average temps (by several degrees) does anyone else think that by bringing the global average down, the antarctic cooling is disguising a much larger temperature rise globally – particularly across northern landmasses? If one was to strip out antarctic data, what would the temp rise across the rest of the globe be? and might this measure not be a reasonable (though slightly skewed) way to look at warming given that most of the worlds’ people and landmasses are in the northern 140degrees of the globe, rather than in the cooler 40degrees around the Southern pole? … thoughts anyone?

    Reply
    • So one of the primary reasons for this is how the ocean interacts with the atmosphere. The Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica has long been a location where atmospheric heat is taken in. This is largely due to the way overturning circulation works in the Southern Ocean. But as storms intensify, higher ocean mixing combines with higher atmospheric heat loading to pull more heat down into that region.

      As a result, Antarctic surface temperatures tend to be somewhat protected, at first, from the initial heat spike. That said, this dynamic will tend to erode over time. Also, it’s worth noting that despite cool temperatures during July, Antarctica, as a whole is still warming. So it’s an incorrect assumption to state that Antarctica is cooling.

      Reply
    • Please also see the global average vs mid 20th Century for the period from 2010 through 2015:

      Reply
    • miles h

       /  August 19, 2016

      thanks rob! …the longer term pic 2010-15 shows antarctic warming better. however, i was thinking of the annual pic where the antarctic appears to be in the negative temp range – i was wondering how much this affects annualised averages for this year, and how might that distort the picture for the rest of the globe given the large +ve temp anomalies at the arctic. it concerns me that the distortion may mask temp changes which may only appear in longer term pics a little too long after the event… basically, has warming taken a sudden surge in 2016 that may not yet be obvious. i suppose the main answer is that the year isnt over yet! (btw… just want to thank you for the work you put into all of this – these pages are uniformly interesting, objective and well-informed. as are many of the comments. a truly valuable resource that i do try to share and disseminate as much as i can to raise awareness of whats happening…. keep up the great work!)

      Reply
  30. Jimbot

     /  August 18, 2016

    Dear R.S.

    I stand corrected for misreading your statement regarding a prediction versus imagining the temperature rise. Actually after I posted my previous post I reread your sentence and realized that you had said “0.3 C or greater”, but too late.

    Well, in terms of imagining what 0.3 C or greater will be like, we can pretty much infer from all the localized events on most of the world’s land masses where they are already experiencing anomalies of up to 8 degrees C. More high temperature records, probably surpassing the wet bulb in a few places. More wildfires, Arctic summer ice all gone, crops totally failed, more methane release, it won’t be fun in a lot of places.

    Reply
  31. Jimbot

     /  August 18, 2016

    RS,
    Now it occurs to me I might have subsequently posted a retraction or correction. Takes me a while sometimes, will try to be more careful if posting again.

    Reply
  1. Zero Percent Contained — Blue Cut Fire Explodes to 30,000 Acres, Forces 82,000 People to Flee | robertscribbler

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