Abnormal. Unprecedented. Remarkable. Extreme. These words are supposed to describe unusual events, but in the weird world we’re now entering, the extreme has become commonplace. Some people call this emerging state of affairs ‘the new normal.’ A more direct descriptor is ‘spiraling into climate chaos.’
Chaos is an apt word to describe the scene in the Arctic this week as one of the most powerful summer cyclones ever to form rages in a place that has just experienced a record-shattering influx of atmospheric heat. This storm is hammering the sea ice, pushing it nearly to the second-lowest extent on record. But worse may be still to come as a very weak and diffuse ice pack is predicted to face off against a storm that’s expected to significantly reintensify on both Friday and Tuesday.
Record Arctic Heat
The Arctic. It’s a place we typically associate with frozen things. Due to the billions and billions of tons of heat-trapping gasses dumped into the atmosphere each year by burning fossil fuels, now it’s a place that’s thawing at a disturbingly fast pace. The region could best be described in these few words — record abnormal warmth in 2016.
(This graphic from University of California, Irvine Ph.D. candidate Zack Labe is a visual measure of a stunning jump in Arctic temperatures for 2016. So much heat in the Arctic has profound implications, not just for the Arctic ice and environment, but for the rest of the world as well. In other words — warming that happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic.)
So far, 2016 has seen temperatures in the Arctic that are well above the warmest previous year ever recorded. This big spike in a decades-long trend includes, for this single year, about 35 percent of all the temperature rise experienced there since the late 1940s. It’s like taking more than a third of all the warming in the Arctic seen over the past 68 years and cramming it into just one year. It’s insane.
The Warm Storm Generator
Heat in the Arctic doesn’t just emerge there. It comes, largely, in the form of energy transfer.
Heat-trapping gasses warm the atmosphere in an uneven fashion. The way these gasses absorb solar radiation results in more heat trapping during the dark of night. And the Arctic experiences a thing called polar night which lasts for months.
As a result, the Arctic already gets a slightly more powerful nudge from global warming than the rest of the world. As the cold begins to fail in the Arctic, a number of amplifying feedbacks come into play that further multiply the warmth.
(A dance of cyclones. GFS model rendering by Earth Nullschool shows a strong influx of heat from the Eurasian Continent and the Barents and Kara Seas feeding into a bombing low-pressure system on Monday at 12:00 UTC. The low is predicted to meet up with the currently raging Arctic cyclone by late Monday or early Tuesday. Combined, these lows are expected to drop into the 960s to 970s mb level, extending the scope of the strong event and possibly resulting in the most powerful cyclone ever to have formed this time of year in the Arctic Basin. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)
As the Arctic heats up, its natural barriers to heat coming up from the ocean or from the south begin to fail. The more evenly-warmed surface of the ocean transfers some of its heat north and pumps this added energy into the Arctic air. The lower sea-ice levels cause this water to warm even more, its dark surface trapping more of the summer sun’s warmth than the white ice ever could.
The polar Jet Stream begins to weaken as the relative difference between Arctic and lower-latitude temperatures drops. In the Jet Stream’s meanders, strong warm winds blow in from the ever-hotter continents and ocean surfaces of the mid and upper latitudes.
It’s a simple physical property of the atmosphere that burgeoning heat often seeks out the cold. It rises as it flows toward the Pole, and when it collides with these chilly pockets, the result can be an atmospheric maelstrom.
The Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016 Smashes Sea Ice
Such was the case earlier this week as a warm tongue of air flowed up into area of the Laptev Sea from Siberia. This warm flow tapped moisture from the Kara and Barents Seas and fed into a developing storm system (see article here). Pressures at the storm’s center rapidly fell and by late Monday, August 15th, had dropped to 966.5 millibars. The result was one of the strongest cyclones ever to form over the Arctic Ocean during August.
(We’ve probably never seen the ice so thin near the Pole during August. Zack Labe‘s rendering of SSMIS sea ice concentration measures from late July to August 17 shows a stunning degree of thinning and loss. Note the large, low-concentration holes opening up near the Pole in the final few frames.)
The storm rampaged through the Arctic. Pulling in strong winds and heavy surf, it smashed the sea ice, driving daily extent losses to 110,000 square kilometers on Tuesday and greatly thinning a vulnerable tongue of ice running out toward the Chukchi Sea. Meanwhile, near the Pole, great gaps 50 to 100 miles wide have opened up, revealing water that is 80 percent clear of ice.
The storm subsequently weakened, with pressures rising today into the 985 mb range. But over the next few days, the system is predicted to reintensify — first on Friday to around 971 to 978 mb as it approaches the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and then again on Tuesday to around 963 to 976 mb when it loops back toward the Laptev.
(AMSR2 and SSMIS sensor reanalysis shows that 2016 Arctic sea ice area [black line] in the Central Arctic Basin — a key region for indicating sea ice health — hit new record lows over recent days. A signal pointing to risk that a challenge to 2012 records may emerge in some measures over the coming days as the 2016 cyclone is expected to re-intensify. Image source: The Great White Con.)
In each case, the storm is predicted to draw on heat, moisture, and low-pressure cells riding up from the south, with the first stream of energy feeding into this low from over the Beaufort and Bering Seas and northeastern Siberia, and the second running up from the Barents and Kara Seas, western Siberia and northeastern Europe (you can see the succession of lows and moisture here in this model run by Climate Reanalyzer).
If this happens, we’ll be coming out of a situation where a warmth-fueled Arctic cyclone will have bombed to record or near-record strength on two to three separate occasions, all the while applying its buzz-saw winds, waves and Coriolis forces to the sea ice — a full-blown nightmare Arctic sea-ice melt scenario in the midst of a record-hot year.
UPDATE (8/19):
A recent report by expert ice observer Neven over at the Arctic Sea Ice Blog (which is very informative) finds that storm impacts thus far have been significant, if not yet quite as extraordinary as the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012. Overall sea ice area measures (not just those in the Central Arctic Basin indicated above) according to Wipneus have dropped into second lowest on record just below the 2007 line. Extent, meanwhile, in the JAXA measure after falling an average of 90,000 square kilometers per day, is today at third lowest on record — trailing 2007 by just 30,000 kilometers. Tracking for end of year now appears most likely to fall into a range near 2007 in many measures. But the current storm appears to have provided a potential for a stronger downward trend for the ice in which some measures (particularly various regional measures) have the potential to approach or exceed 2012.
(Peering through the clouds on August 19 in this LANCE MODIS satellite shot we find that sea ice in the Chukchi appears to have been greatly reduced and thinned by the current cyclone. Loss and thinning of the ice bridge with the main pack means that this ice may have also suffered separation. Toward the Laptev, sea ice in the pack between that Arctic sea and the Pole is extraordinarily mobile and becoming more diffuse. These observed conditions still present a potential for large daily losses and further reductions in total sea ice coverage. So current tracking comes with a ‘risk of downside’ caveat. Image source: LANCE MODIS.)
One final point is that we are entering La Nina and such events tend to increase heat transport toward the Arctic and particularly into the Arctic Ocean. For this reason El Nino year +1 or El Nino year +2 can tend to present higher risk for greater sea ice melt totals. As such, and dramatic as the heat and melt in the Arctic has been for this year, it’s worth noting that what we may be watching is a set-up for 2017 or 2018 to see worsening conditions. La Nina is currently expected to be weak, so the related North Atlantic influence (NAO) that has been so devastating to the ice during the recent record warm years may be somewhat muted. We’ll have to see.
2016, however, is not entirely out of the woods. Thin ice in the Chukchi and an increasingly thin and diffuse pack extending from the Pole toward the Laptev remain very vulnerable to late season flash melt and compaction. Model runs today indicate the current set of storms tending to restrengthen on one or two occasions back to the 970s or 960s before finally ebbing on Wednesday. After this, some models show a tendency to flip toward a strong high pressure influence which would again wrench the ice (this time toward compaction). So the troubling 2016 Arctic melt drama is still far from over.
Links:
Powerful Arctic Cyclone to Blow Hole in Thinning Sea Ice
NASA: Implications of a Warming Arctic
Hat tip to DT Lange
Hat tip to Colorado Bob
Hat tip to Bill h
Bill h
/ August 18, 2016While the ice extent has taken a hit, the ice AREA has really been hammered. Take a look at greatwhitecon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs, scrolling to the first graph. 320000 sq km lost in 3 days. Ice area now below 2007 and challenging 2012.
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robertscribbler
/ August 18, 2016Thanks for this, Bill.
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marcel_g
/ August 18, 2016Yeah it’s pretty incredible. Just when it looked like this melt season would peter out and some ice might survive for another year, then bam, this low shows up and it’s a whole new ball game!
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marcel_g
/ August 18, 2016Also, +1 post again RS
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016Thanks for the kind words, Marcel.
So the average daily losses in the JAXA monitor is 90 K over the past three. This has been enough to push that monitor to just 30K kilometers above the 2007 line. Most models now showing the storm dropping back into the 970s or upper 960s over the next few hours and possibly on Tuesday. After, there’s a possibility of a flip to high pressure which would tend to bring on compaction.
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Bill h
/ August 18, 2016Make that: http://greatwhitecon/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs
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Bill h
/ August 18, 2016Oh,not my day: make that http://greatwhitecon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs
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dtlange
/ August 18, 2016For Robert 🙂
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robertscribbler
/ August 18, 2016Ah! Good ol slurpee surfing. Ice cream head aches anyone? On second thought, this might be pretty ridiculously dangerous. Ice debris and possible very large waves from calving glaciers… That’s like surfing in a meat grinder.
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dtlange
/ August 18, 2016And muscle cramps…
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robertscribbler
/ August 18, 2016Yeah. That. Ouch.
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Jeremy in Wales
/ August 20, 2016Brain Freeze – it is what most political leaders suffer from
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Mulga Mumblebrain
/ August 20, 2016After Fanning’s run-in with a (thankfully juvenile) great white shark in South Africa, he looks to be riding his luck, as well as a wave. Perhaps he could ride the pororoca on the Amazon next.
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dtlange
/ August 18, 2016– Meanwhile USA Oregon
Emergency Traffic @EmrgncyNewsWire 11m11 minutes ago
As Temperatures Soar, Oregon Wildfires Lead To Evacuation Notices – OPB News
Update, 12:30 p.m.: A wildfire burning northwest of Paisley, Oregon, has grown to 3 square miles and officials have told people to evacuate from campgrounds along the Chewaucan River and some homes in that area.
The town of Paisley remains under a low-level warning, with people asked to make preparations in case an evacuation becomes necessary.
The situation is a little more serious for seven homes on Mill Street, where residents have been told to be ready to evacuate.
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dtlange
/ August 18, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 18, 2016– Wildfire smoke – Downwind – Regional effects
Newswise — As another wildfire season starts to burn large parts of the American West, many people only focus on the economic impact of the homes and forests that are destroyed in the blaze.
Klaus Moeltner, a Virginia Tech professor of agricultural and applied economics who has extensively studied wildfires, points out that smoke from these fires travels hundreds of miles and has a serious impact on the health of people who live downwind.
…
Moeltner said as fires become increasingly commonplace, more thought needs to be put into how people in an entire region may be impacted by an upwind blaze hundreds of miles away.
For example, he found that smoke from the 2008 wildfire season caused more than $2.2 million dollars in inpatient costs alone to the Reno/Sparks area of Northern Nevada, with many of the highest-impact burns outside of a 100 mile radius. Adding outpatient costs and economic losses due to foregone productivity and recreational opportunities would likely substantially increase this figure.
http://www.newswise.com/articles/virginia-tech-expert-available-to-talk-about-how-health-and-economic-impact-of-wildfires-can-be-felt-hundreds-of-miles-from-the-flames
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016Yet one more very strong heat pulse for the PNW. More records on the way or underway.
I can definitely attest to feeling the impacts of fires pretty far from the source. During recent years, the Dismal Swamp in Southeastern VA has tended to burn more often. Many miles away, you can smell the smoke and feel it in your lungs. Out west, with all these fires underway now, the air quality situation has got to be rather worse in places.
Back to heat… Was chatting with my mom recently and she was commenting on the multiple 100+ degree F days in VA Beach. She’s lived there for 63 years and has never seen a summer so hot and muggy. Even as a kid, I can only remember a handful of days above 100 F there. This summer it’s been quite frequent to hit above that mark. It’s also worth noting that this is a very humid region.
Hope everything is well where you are, DT.
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016So far — so good. Thx
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todaysguestis
/ August 18, 2016Crisis averted at Lake Mead: Colorado River water users avoid restrictions for another year
http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-water/2016/08/16/crisis-averted-lake-mead-colorado-river-water-users-avoid-restrictions-another-year-2017/88831940/
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robertscribbler
/ August 18, 2016Maybe another year. Maybe two. If they’re lucky, three or four. After that… Water conservation should be a serious topic for pretty much every state on the Colorado River these days. If these communities are going to keep on keeping on, then they’ll have to figure out how to reduce their water footprints even more.
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dtlange
/ August 18, 2016– H2o Related
NOAA launches America’s first national water forecast model
August 16, 2016
New tool hailed as a game changer for predicting floods, informing water-related decisions
Launched today and run on NOAA’s powerful new Cray XC40 supercomputer, the National Water Model uses data from more than 8,000 U.S. Geological Survey gauges to simulate conditions for 2.7 million locations in the contiguous United States. The model generates hourly forecasts for the entire river network. Previously, NOAA was only able to forecast streamflow for 4,000 locations every few hours.
The model also improves NOAA’s ability to meet the needs of its stakeholders — such as emergency managers, reservoir operators, first responders, recreationists, farmers, barge operators, and ecosystem and floodplain managers — with more accurate, detailed, frequent and expanded water information.
http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-launches-america-s-first-national-water-forecast-model
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016Nice to see this upgrade. Great to have higher resolution flood/low river water information coming in. Much needed given current and emerging conditions.
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Sheri
/ August 19, 2016We , Phoenix, should have much much more water saving than we do. When the rationing comes, there will be angry people.
My question will be, with all the heat everywhere else in US where will you go that will be cooler and greener,?
Thanks, Robert.
Sheri
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dtlange
/ August 18, 2016– Blue Cut wildfire regional consequences
I-15 Reopens, Some Train Routes Still Closed in Cajon Pass
At the same time, it has slowed Southern California’s major shipping operations rooted at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which together handle more than 40 percent of U.S. imports.
“It is definitely having an impact on the goods and slowing things down,” said Phillip Sanfield, spokesman at the Port of Los Angeles, adding that the delays still haven’t caused major disruptions yet.
About 5,500 trucks travel through the Cajon Pass going to and from the twin ports, while about 50 trains leave the ports each day carrying goods destined for thousands of U.S. cities.
“People across the country depend on the cargo that’s being shipped on trains through that corridor,” said Lena Kent, spokeswoman for BNSF.
http://labusinessjournal.com/news/2016/aug/18/i-15-reopens-some-train-routes-still-closed-cajon-/
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Bill h
/ August 18, 2016Robert, thanks for the hat tip! Thanks also for the climare reanalyzer animation showing this
Polar cyclone to be highly tenacious. I suggest you add to your text an instruction that people should click on the “mean surface pressure” option for this animation. Otherwise they will see an animation of surface temperature.
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robertscribbler
/ August 18, 2016Thanks for the head’s up. The effort here is collaborative. My hope is that everyone contributes to the learning, research, exploration and response effort.
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dtlange
/ August 18, 2016Busy weather NW Pac
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robertscribbler
/ August 18, 2016Cat-o-Nine Tails weather pattern in WPAC. Look out!
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dtlange
/ August 18, 2016Antarctica
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016Excellent article by the Post here. Surface melt in East Antarctica is a rather disturbing new feature. Unfortunately, we’ll likely see more of this.
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016Yeah, they got into it. Kudos WaPo.
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Leland Palmer
/ August 20, 2016I’m still very suspicious of the Washington Post, considering their history of not covering global warming, or worse, covering it in a very slanted way, with articles full of loaded language.
The article itself seems fine, but the headline says that “scientists” are concerned. I suspect that how you read this headline would depend on which side of the climate debate you are on. A climate change denier might read that headline and say to himself “well, you know those scientists…always concerned about BS”. It seems to me that the WaPo has done this before – draw a sharp line between scientists and their concerns and regular people living in the real world.
A deliberate propaganda operation would also need an occasional straight article to suck in the unwary. The Antarctic lake article links to other articles supporting regulating solar and wind development on public lands, delaying the large scale necessary transition to solar and wind, for example.
So, it’s an improvement on their really criminally bad coverage of the climate change issue. I’d still be very suspicious of that information source, and be on the lookout for loaded language and loaded conceptual and semantic frames.
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Andy_in_SD
/ August 19, 2016I had a concerning thought.
The last 2 days I’ve perusing off and on, the west coast of Greenland (especially north of Jakobshavn). I’ve been flipping between a month ago, and current as you can see a high number of glacial face collapses (and real big ones at that).
It just came to me about 5 minutes ago. As these outlet glaciers recede, their run off, and the sub glacial run off which emerges at their base winds up of course in the ocean. However, in the past that run off hit the deep ocean sooner. Now it has to traverse a shallower fjord (some real long ones if you look south of Jakobshavn). This in turn provides opportunity for said run off to warm up before dumping into the ocean.
Therefore, the cooling impact of the glacial run off should over time reduce. This being the effect we’ve seen for some years with the pool of cold water surrounding Greenland due to the run off.
Plus the sediment mixed into the water may play into this as well.
Just a thought I had.
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016Interesting.
Worth noting, though, that it’s the lighter properties of fresh water that help to generate cooling as well. It serves as a lid that pushes warmer, saltier water emerging from the south below. It’s this physical property of fresh water that produces the surface cooling and deep ocean warming that then fires up the ocean stratification process.
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Griffin
/ August 19, 2016Robert, as you have pointed out here and countless times before, what we are seeing is just the beginning of enormous consequences for weather following a major loss of sea ice.
It is truly an story of epic importance to us all.
I wish that everyone would read this. You really do a great job of covering this with the respect that it deserves.
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016Thanks Griff. We’re living in the time of significant climate events. A time of fundamental, profound changes that will deeply impact everyone’s lives. In my view, it’s important not to just rattle off the details of these fundamental shifts verbatim like counting numbers from a hill of beans.
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Kalypso
/ August 19, 2016I wonder if these polar storms constitute a positive feedback mechanism in the climate system? Warmer conditions, more storms, less sea ice, more warming, etc.
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016During late summer, tendency for increased atmospheric instability due to added heat and moisture does tend to generate more storms in a warming world. As the sea ice grows more fragile and as the sea surface and subsurface warm more, the storms will tend to mix the Arctic Ocean surface layer more, break the surface stratification and transport more heat toward the thinner ice. It’s a positive feedback in the sense that at certain times it does enhance ice melt. As the Arctic warms, the period in which these storms will have such an impact will expand. As a result regions of ice will tend to flip into no-ice states once a certain energy/heat boundary is crossed and the system inertia will prefer an ice-less state beyond that point.
It’s worth noting that stronger Arctic storms themselves are an upshot of warming. This is a part of the longer term trend of heat and moisture injection into the Arctic.
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Aghast In Japan
/ August 19, 2016“Shouldna’ took more than ya gave..Then we wouldn’t be in this mess today
I know we all got different ways..But the dues we got to pay, won’t stay the same”
~Dave Mason, track #4
Been listening to his epic 1970 release, ‘Alone Together’. Feels like he wrote it for the environment & Mother Nature, herself. Whole album is so strong. Recommend investing the 35 mins.
Track 2: “Only a few that I met really knew, why so many good things, take so much abuse.
Can’t stop the worryin’, about the things we do, Can’t stop lovin’..without it, nuthin’ would seem true.”
Track 5 is entitled, ‘World In Changes’..Like WTH..so apropos? Was this guy travelling backwards from our future today?
Most prob know him from his days in Traffic(with Stevie Winwood).
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016Profound stuff there, Aghast. Now I’ll have to track this guy down.
I think these notions of altered nature due to human activity were a sensitive undercurrent even then. Climate change first popped up as an issue in the 50s and 60s. And though it didn’t really hit mainstream, the topic wasn’t really a hidden one. I recall as a kid growing up in the 80s reading various science articles and reports from earlier decades on climate change. Some of my teachers were active members of the marine science community and they were very concerned about the health of the bay as it related to climate change and industrial runoff both. I recall that the Reagan election in 80 itself was, in large part, a repudiation of concerns by more sensitive folk over environmental damage (greenhouse gasses included).
The point is that this back and forth struggle to generate both awareness and action on climate issues is much older and longer-lasting than we tend to recognize. Part of this is due to the fact that the issue hasn’t been put into a good context in the public narrative. We, for example, continuously track the history of events and instability in the Middle East, so people do not really have this sense of temporal dislocation whenever someone talks about ISIS for example. But bring up climate change and you also have to deal with the notion of years and decades of mostly silence and failing to place climate change into its proper, historic perspective.
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Aghast In Japan
/ August 20, 2016Yeah, I’d probably contend artists sang more compellingly of the world’s troubles, back then. Thinking of Joni Mitchell types, 70’s era-vibe, & often see some of these great old tunes posted here.
Often fighting with nostalgia now. Was raised south of Vancouver, & byGawd it was a beautiful place(from late 60’s to Expo ’86). Spent almost last two decades in Japan, & it’s not easy witnessing the pace of change when I returned.
As I vaguely recall the last line of a famous read:
“Been away a long time.”
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Loni
/ August 20, 2016Adding to your list, Aghast:
Quicksilver Messenger Service; Fresh Air, What About Me, and Don’t Cry My Lady Love, which really doesn’t go with the others, but it’s a great tune.
Climatic sound tracks
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Aghast In Japan
/ August 20, 2016Thanks Loni, Will have a listen to those.
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016Wildfire behind Santa Barbara, CA. Should be able to contain — unless wind shifts.
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016A familiar location — and wildfire scene. Campus Point UCSB, a good surf and gray whale watching spot — with Marine Science buildings in foreground.
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016Not a scene you want to observe while surfing…
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Cate
/ August 19, 2016Robert and dt, you’ll like this: I happen to be reading a review from 1988 about the American writer Joan Didion (whose book “Slouching Towards Bethlehem” chronicles “the drug and hippy scene in San Francisco” in 1968—adding that to my to-read list! haha)
In “Los Angeles Notebook”, Didion reflects on living in Malibu. The reviewer writes, “Didion describes how, when the Malibu hills were on fire, the young surfers…would look up at the fires raging overhead and go on with their surfing. Hell as Southern California…..”
I thought right away of CB: Hell is coming to breakfast.
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016– Firefighters exposed to risks from a consumer society. Manufactured who knows where. with how much quality or environmental control — and full chemicals.
Firefighters Battling Cancer, PTSD
New Studies Show They’re Dying at Alarming Rates
Firefighters face even deadlier risks than burning homes and flaming hillsides — cancer and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are killing them at alarming rates, new studies show. According to the International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF), which hosted its annual summit this week in Las Vegas, attended by Captain Tony Pighetti and Engineer Kevin Corbett with Santa Barbara City Fire, cancer is the leading cause of line-of-duty deaths in the United States — about 60 percent of career firefighters will die this way, “with their boots off,” as they call it. The rising number of casualties has been linked to noxious smoke from modern homes — newer furniture is routinely made with plastics, foams, and coatings laden with chemicals like benzene, formaldehyde, and hydrogen cyanide — and prolonged exposure to wildland fires for days at a time.
http://www.independent.com/news/2016/aug/18/firefighters-battling-cancer-ptsd/
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016“There are just a plethora of toxic things that kill firefighters,”
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016The Associated Press Verified account @AP 16h16 hours ago
VIDEO: Not everyone’s complying with Calif. wildfire evacuation orders – and that’s dangerous for firefighters.
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Leland Palmer
/ August 20, 2016Yes, if a laboratory tried to get away with exposing workers to the chemical exposure that firefighters have to deal with, OSHA would be all over them, I think. Firefighters- bless their hearts for taking on those risks.
As global warming ramps up, and we start to see huge firestorms burning large areas, there is going to be a public health time bomb for members of the public exposed to these same chemicals, I think. Huge public exposure to combustion byproducts like polyaromatic hydrocarbons is likely going on right now in Africa and South America.
It would be interesting to know where the biggest risk is – whether from urban fires and combustion of plastics or from wildfires and incomplete combustion of woody materials producing chemicals like polyaromatic hydrocarbons.
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016LikeLike
Cate
/ August 19, 2016Thank goodness and good riddance to El Nino. What will the MSM do now? Start moving beyond denial and acknowledging the root cause of all the recent “extreme weather” events? MSM, we are watching you.
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016So August is looking like it may cool down at the end. In which case, we’ll be closer to June than July on the anomaly graph and August might even come in at #2 or #3 hottest on record rather than #1… This is the cooling effect of La Nina against the backdrop of greenhouse gas warming — struggling not to achieve record hot years and months.
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Keith Antonysen
/ August 19, 2016Using historic data it has been possible to recreate the amount of sea ice in the Arctic prior to the use of satellites:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18082016/arctic-sea-ice-melting-historical-data-noaa-climate-change-global-warming-greenhouse-gases
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NevenA
/ August 19, 20162016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 is up.
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Cate
/ August 19, 2016Crystal Serenity is coasting from Nome on Aug 21 through to Cambridge Bay (Coronation Gulf) on Aug 29. Will she manage to dodge the storm?
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danabanana
/ August 19, 2016I was utterly disgusted when I read this the other day in the Guardian. A bunch of wealthy individuals paying a lot of money (check the ticket prices) to go piss all over the dying Arctic. Oh and the company said that they will use ultra clean fuel (as if it wasn’t fuel anyway) as well as making use of the Ernest Shackleton to make sure they get to the end of their luxury, casino filled trip.
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DaveW
/ August 19, 2016The more money people have, the more stupid, self-indulgent things they do to help kill our biosphere. Kevin Anderson often mentions in his presentations – about 10% of the global population creates about 50% of our global emissions.
Just rots my socks when I read about such things as this:
Visitors rush to the Great Barrier Reef to catch it before it’s gone
Survey finds that 69% of visitors to the world’s largest coral reef system are motivated by the fear that it might disappear…
And of course, our modern frantic “bucket list” tourism is itself a large part of the source of the most unnecessary CO2 emissions.
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016Great post here. Thanks for this Neven. Will post in an update!
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016OK, Neven. I’ve put the update up.
To me 2016 end season looks pretty rough. Not sure if I’m quite as pessimistic as some for final stages, but I’d like to say that between the weather and so much thin and diffuse ice, it looks risky. Some of the satellite imagery coming in for today is quite dramatic.
Best to you and thanks again.
–R
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Shawn Redmond
/ August 19, 2016A little OT but it seems to apply to the over all situation. http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176177/best_of_tomdispatch%3A_andrew_bacevich%2C_pentagon%2C_inc./#more “Strategic Inertia: In a 1948 State Department document, diplomat George F. Kennan offered this observation: “We have about 50 percent of the world’s wealth, but only 6.3 percent of its population.” The challenge facing American policymakers, he continued, was “to devise a pattern of relationships that will permit us to maintain this disparity.” Here we have a description of American purposes that is far more candid than all of the rhetoric about promoting freedom and democracy, seeking world peace, or exercising global leadership.”
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016So the zero sum game approach tends to lead for the kind of institutional calcification that we’ve seen. Protecting power has tended to mean protecting power centers. Quite a lot of power has centered around fossil fuel based energy dominance and trade of that material’s supply and transport. An energy transition and energy conservation is a separate threat to that power structure. So in this case, we are looking at a political perception of dependence on a power base that results in long term destruction of the civilization it inhabits. This is resource curse writ large.
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Shawn Redmond
/ August 19, 2016I don’t remember this being linked, but wow the WaPo seems to be getting it. Somewhat.
“Here we are again, with a flood event upending the lives of large numbers of Americans and making everybody wonder about the role of climate change.”https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/08/15/what-we-can-say-about-the-louisiana-floods-and-climate-change/?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.a2ed00043f93
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Shawn Redmond
/ August 19, 2016https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/08/15/what-we-can-say-about-the-louisiana-floods-and-climate-change/?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.a2ed00043f93
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016Fantastic. It’s good to see them taking this on.
I’ll say this — WaPo probably does not need to use language like ‘rain bombs’ to raise awareness. And this would probably be counter-productive for them given their position as a mainstream source. But from the perspective here in the trenches, rain bomb is what it looks like.
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PlazaRed
/ August 19, 2016Just in passing on a warm 34/C afternoon here in Southern Spain outside my house here.
The owner of the local bar having had a lot of customers during the morning has just draged a large cylinder of compressed CO2 out of the bar normally used for the beer pumps and is saving himself time by using it as an “air copmressor substitute” to blast away all the debris and cigarette ends etc from the front of his bar. This saves him time but adds yet another bit to the polution.
The Spanish mid day news said that the Blue Cut fire is has now burned 1,400 square kliometers. This may or may not be correct but translates to about 350,000 Acres I think.
The Arctic situation is probably becoming critical with these storms and now they are inviting tourists up there as well, as if we havent got enough of them crusing through the skies to start with, especially here!
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016More like 37,000 Acres. Apparently still just 26 percent contained, though.
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-blue-cut-fire-20160819-snap-story.html
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PlazaRed
/ August 19, 2016Thanks for that advice note.
I have to be careful what I belive these days, better to know things than belive them.
So dificult being in the dark most the time while blinded by the light of not only the intense sun but the media as well?
For some reason I cant sign in with my normal picture, this one is generated when I enter my details!
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smallbluemike
/ August 19, 2016I hear gas-powered leafblowers and lawnmowers running in the neighborhood and I figure our species is ripe for a well-deserved extinction.
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016So we, in our cold and calculating judgement, and in failing to fight as hard as we can to prevent it, would by intentional neglect impose a death penalty on the whole of the human race?
This is not justice. This wretched talk invites the deepest, most terrible kind of wrong. If you know something, then it is your responsibility to act. If you know there’s a crime or harm being committed, and the potential death of any species is the very worst of these, then you are obligated by the precedents of justice and compassion to attempt with every good means available to stop it from happening.
The prevalence of gas powered engines everywhere gives us all the more reason and imperative to speak out. To inform people of the danger. To shout — ‘turn back before it’s too late!’ And to keep it up until there’s no opportunity left for people to choose to listen.
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016!
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JPL
/ August 19, 2016DT, got your refrigerated boxer shorts ready to go today? Supposed to hit 97 in Seattle today, but as usual, Portland’s got us beat by a few degrees. Toasty!
Upcoming hot stretch to clinch Seattle’s 4th consecutive warmer-than-normal summer
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016Yeah, not much of a cool down at night either. Must move slowly in the heat.
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016The ice at the top of the world 08.2016.
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016Amazing how the visual comparison of these two graphs shows very little difference in the total picture of ice coverage and concentration between 2012 and 2016.
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016🙂
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 19, 2016‘NASAHurricane @NASAHurricane 11m11 minutes ago
NW PACIFIC OCEAN (Yes, there are 3 active tropical cyclones here!) *full update* NASA Spies Tropical Storm…’
‘NASAHurricane @NASAHurricane 25m25 minutes ago
NW PACIFIC OCEAN *Full Update* NASA Sees Tropical Storm Lionrock South of Japan’
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016Looks like a Cat 2 or 3 is on its way toward Japan…
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 19, 2016‘Obviously, the problem with Katrina wasn’t freshwater flooding from rainfall. It was surge. Totally different storm.’
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016– An interesting letter by Eric Holthaus with many aspects that may resonate here.
Hi all,
In my small corner of the internet, this week has been dominated by the Louisiana floods. Specifically, people seem obsessed with the question of how much attention we should pay to the ongoing disaster there. My simple answer: Our attention to tragedies like Louisiana reflect our values and priorities as a society. Slow-onset disasters in places that are already seen by some as lost causes are easily forgotten.
In that sense, Louisiana is not much different than the roughly 100 people that die each day in America from gun violence, or the astronomical examples of heartbreak in Syria, or the millions of people still recovering from disasters of all kinds around the world. There is no way to fit updates on each of these into our daily routine, so we block them out. To not block them out is to confront your personal privilege constantly. To confront your privilege is realize the status quo must change, and change is hard. I’m not trying to be preachy—I’m guilty of the same thing every day.
…
http://tinyletter.com/sciencebyericholthaus/letters/today-in-weather-climate-obama-s-climate-legacy-edition-friday-august-19th
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016If you let your own importance disappear, then the clouds preventing action part…
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016So a system of rain bombs is now comparable to Andrew when it comes to damage potential…
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016I’m not sure of any dollar value that has changed over the years of ‘lost’ or damaged property or possessions. It seems likely that accumulated ‘big ticket’ and other consumer items have increased. Consumer debt that finances these has grown though.
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Shawn Redmond
/ August 19, 2016Give this a look DT
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.ca/2016_08_01_archive.
htmlhttp://www.oftwominds.com/photos2016/wage-inequality3-16a.jpg
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Shawn Redmond
/ August 20, 2016Sorry DT trying again: http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.ca/2016/08/what-fed-hasnt-fixed-and-actually-made.html
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todaysguestis
/ August 19, 2016‘Climate change is water change’ — why the Colorado River system is headed for major trouble
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/08/19/climate-change-is-water-change-why-the-colorado-river-system-is-headed-for-trouble/
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016Well, well. Someone woke up at the WaPo.
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Shawn Redmond
/ August 19, 2016Maybe their toggling between editors? Almost like it’s a different publication from a month ago!
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016– We already know some of this but it is good to hear it restated in hopes of finding common language to get the message across about a physically altered climate/weather regime.
‘The atmosphere over the Gulf Coast was chock full of water during the event. Precipitable water values recorded during a weather balloon launch from Slidell, LA, on August 12 were the second highest on record, ever.’
August 2016 extreme rain and floods along the Gulf Coast
…
‘Where did the rain come from?
The storm system that caused such misery for residents of the Gulf Coast wasn’t quite a tropical depression, but it wasn’t quite a normal mid-latitude low pressure system, either. One thing is for certain, though: This storm was able to wring out an atmosphere over Louisiana and Mississippi that had near-record amounts of moisture in it. The atmospheric sponge was soaking wet. When scientists look to see how wet an atmosphere is they look at a value called precipitable water. If you magically took all of the water in a column of air and measured it, you would have calculated the precipitable water. Higher values during the summer time usually mean muggy conditions and potentially heavy rains should a storm develop.
The atmosphere over the Gulf Coast was chock full of water during the event. Precipitable water values recorded during a weather balloon launch from Slidell, LA, on August 12 were the second highest on record, ever. A likely contributing factor to the extremely moist atmosphere were well-above-average water temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico with temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90°F (1.5-3.5°F above-average).
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/august-2016-extreme-rain-and-floods-along-gulf-coast
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016And WaPo:
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016Capital Weather Gang @capitalweather 37m37 minutes ago
No-name storm dumped three times as much rain in Louisiana as Hurricane Katrina http://wapo.st/2bPNToE
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todaysguestis
/ August 19, 2016What do others here make of this?
I was thoroughly disappointed by the scientists answers to the interviewer. I found them ambiguous, confusing, and generally, it seemed to me, that they were deliberately avoiding speaking plainly. To my mind this really showed a lack in communications skills on the scientists part.
A great opportunity missed again!
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016– An extremely timid and unhelpful response re CC.
La, flooding: an absence of basic a basic contextual knowledge of, “Where the hell did all that water come from?”
And, Where did it come from?” And, “How did it get there?” And, “Who put it there?”
Ps these are basic journalistic/scientific/naturalist questions.
And these are the same I asked about all of the black soot/traffic dust fallout in Santa Barbara, Ca that I asked in 2010-2012.
No one answered me on that one but I already knew the answer…
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016– A partial answer from an above post:
The atmosphere over the Gulf Coast was chock full of water during the event. Precipitable water values recorded during a weather balloon launch from Slidell, LA, on August 12 were the second highest on record, ever. A likely contributing factor to the extremely moist atmosphere were well-above-average water temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico with temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90°F (1.5-3.5°F above-average).’
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robspear
/ August 19, 2016In an odd way, I am beginning to think the deniers are, perversely, right. The Columbia guy and other actual climate scientists (not meteorologists) seem unwilling to come right out and say what most of them must already know – that we are in full-fledged catastrophe mode wrt climate impacts already and it’s already too late to do anything about it. Once that is acknowledged, why pay for climate scientists to have jobs and prestigious institutions? Sorry, for bombast, but the fact that the arctic ice is currently disappearing before my eyes has me in a state of despair. If a group of scientists were on the Titanic making projections of water intake, they would be arguing about the calculations even as they plunged to the bottom on the sea.
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016Scientific reticence is an issue. It’s no reason whatsoever to give up on trying to reduce the impacts of climate change. In fact, it’s one more reason to take personal responsibility and support strong group action.
As an example of this, my father in law is an active member of the Sierra Club. He joined out of his passion for environmental and climate issues. Recently, he was pivotal in helping to impose very strong fracking regulations for King George County in VA. The position was to try to put up a complete ban. But the regulations were so onerous that various fracking interests are now threatening to sue King George Co. In my view, this is an example of what people can do. If everyone got more involved, we could rapidly cut fossil fuel related carbon emissions and reduce the damage that’s coming. Yes, bad impacts are locked in. But you’d better believe that there’s far worse to come if we don’t act now as swiftly and as forcefully as possible.
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robspear
/ August 19, 2016Sorry (again) Robert. When I pre-apologized in my comment, I really meant it. For my part, I changed my life and career to work in energy efficiency (at a massive personal financial sacrifice) to do what I could to fight climate change. I have also completely altered my consumption patterns (basically monk-like). I greatly respect your work and that of the scientists. I just understand that we can’t look to them for any sort of action-oriented communication or leadership because they are, indeed, scientists. There are by nature and by necessity conservative and that is good for the scientific method, but not for action-inspiring communication. That is why I appreciate your work so much. I also understand, and sympathize with scientists that if they appear to push the envelop too much, they may be ravaged by deniers, ridiculed by other scientists, or accused of “advocacy” thus undermining their appearance of objectivity for the balance of their careers. I just don’t understand why they don’t start by saying “We have fundamentally altered the chemical composition and physics of our atmosphere at an unprecedented rate to conditions that haven’t been seen in millennia” (or some such) rather than equivocating on attribution of specific events.
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016Fear of criticism is a kind of a problem. My two cents on this is to be accurate when you can be, point out the big risks, if you make a mistake — make corrections, but keeping focus on the larger issue through the whole thing. There will always be numbskulls that attack vision and advocacy. That wait to jump on you when you stick your neck out. Screw those bastards. If you let them rule the roost, then you never get anything done.
So a while ago, I looked into pursuing an atmospheric sciences degree. I went to a few local colleges to interview some of the faculty. Not going to name any names. But one of the more influential scientists on staff was convinced that climate sensitivity was generally far lower than Hansen and paleoclimate measures indicated. The scientist was also enamored with the notion that climate variability in the North Atlantic was the primary natural variability driver (not El Niño). He also pointed to cooling in the Southern Ocean atmosphere as a possible support to his theory of lower sensitivity (this was before the big heat spike of 2014-2016).
The scientists on staff seemed generally impressed with my knowledge and understanding. However, when I pointed out that cooling in the southern ocean atmosphere was a signal for large overall ocean heat uptake in the region and that, ala Trenberth, a good amount of that ocean heat was likely to back up into the atmosphere sooner or later, there was a good deal of consternation.
The point of the anecdote is that scientists are taught to create ‘turf’ by generating theories and then defending those theories. This produces conservatism and proxyism in the field. It makes a less fertile ground both for people who hope to collaborate openly and to explore and discard ideas (as we do here). The institutionalization of the process creates schools of thought that will defend themselves for the pure reason that the institution’s survival depends on it. If we’re going to confront climate change effectively, we’re going to have to discard some of those institutional and proxy inhibitors.
That’s one of the reasons why this blog creates a lightning rod. Sometimes we are scientifically heretical because, well, to look at all of the risks and potentials, we have to be. The thing to remember when doing this is to keep the exploration honest and to not get invested in thesis defense.
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todaysguestis
/ August 19, 2016Hey Rob,
I respectfully disagree. Scientists should be leaders in this.
They are more than scientists….
We all have a stake in this and need to act to protect what we love.
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016Well, you’re right, scientists should be leaders and outspoken advocates for climate action. What I’m saying is that if some scientists fail in this, then it’s all the more reason for the rest of us to step up.
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todaysguestis
/ August 19, 2016There’s nothing wrong with a scientist also being an advocate. The question should be how should a scientist be a responsible advocate.
Prof. Gavin Schmidt of NASA has some good ideas in this talk that I’ve found useful in my own practise…
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016Holistic is one word that comes to mind here. We have to look at the whole. Which means we have to look and describe, without bias, at each individual inter-connective piece.
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wili
/ August 19, 2016Nicely put, robert. The phenomenon is not, of course, limited to science–it is rampant throughout academia, as far as I’ve seen, and of course in many other areas.
It is the reason I have this as the sign off at neven’s forum:
“A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu’elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir.” Choderlos de Laclos
(Roughly:) “You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they’re good, but just to not back down.”
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016Glad to hear of your father in law’s hard won success in VA and the need to keep up the struggle.
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Shawn Redmond
/ August 20, 2016Not to dis academia but example one: While working my small turn down mill some biology grads arrived on my woodlot to look for and count brown long horned beetles. An invasive species that showed up in Halifax harbour 15 miles to the east of my land early 2000’s. When asked why they were here they responded with “checking for expansion”. I queried with the fact that they are poor fliers and only take to the air primarily for mating. Answer “yes”. I than stated the fact that mating season was in August+/- “answer yes” for these critters and the prevailing winds around here at this time of year was from the south west. I than suggested they maybe they were looking in the wrong direction. The beetles were first discovered on the west side of the harbour ( my side ) and subsequently several years later about 30 miles east across the mile or so of harbour and still not across the 15 miles of dry land between my land and the original location. Example two: In the eighties when the biologists were told by the uneducated laymen that there was something wrong with the cod stocks off the east coast their concerns were dismissed,”no no there are plenty off shore” a few years later total collapse and a moratorium. They will be back in a few years no worries. Two decades plus later still no cod. Conclusion: science is very very good at saying why something happened or telling what a certain outcome will be, but seem incapable of knowing when we are already knee deep in it. Damn it! get off the grid, grow a garden not a lawn, stop travelling by air, lead by example. Don’t wait for the science to tell you what happened. It is already telling us what’s going to happen! We are knee deep. LEAD BY EXAMPLE!!! Talk is cheap it takes money to buy rum.
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Dan Borroff
/ August 20, 2016My partner and I were screaming at the TV when we saw this “interview” with these climate scientists. It was clear that they needed to make short clean statements. Every time I felt they should stop talking they’d come up with a “but, on the other hand”. I became very interested in the field of communication some years ago. I had the privilege of working with David Domke, currently head of the Dept. of Communication at the University of Washington. We were working with a number of progressive religious leaders whose areas of concern included climate change. We got to meet Stephen Schneider, a professor of biology at Stanford, and most likely the person who persuaded Gov. Schwartzenneger to go all in for renewable energy and conservation. My jaw was on the floor for Dr. Schneider’s lecture. He was absolutely spot on with his talking points and his storytelling. I complimented him afterwards on his brilliant communication skill. He told me that every one of his students at Stanford had to take a course on communication. If only this had happened to these two scientists on PBS!
The first thing they should have done is rephrase the question: Was this flooding caused by Global Warming? It’s such a terrible way to phrase the question. The real question is: Did Global Warming make this flooding more likely and does it mean we’ll have more extreme weather in the future? The answer to that is: Most climate models do show it’s likely we’ll see more extreme weather. We’re working on making these models more robust. We will need to know how to prepare our communities to manage the weather of the very near future.
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todaysguestis
/ August 23, 2016Thanks.
I totally agree, Schneider was an exemplary communicator. You might have noticed that the advocacy video by Prof. Gavin Schmidt of NASA that I posted above was the Stephen Schneider honorary lecture at the AGU! 🙂
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016Historical Data Shows Arctic Melt of Last Two Decades Is ‘Unprecedented’
Sea ice melting since 1979 is ‘enormously outside the bounds of natural variability’ and clearly linked to humans burning fossil fuels, research shows.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18082016/arctic-sea-ice-melting-historical-data-noaa-climate-change-global-warming-greenhouse-gases
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016– Disgusting behavior by Harley Davidson and the callous aggressive bikers that use them.
They vote Trump as well.
Harley-Davidson pays $15 million in air-pollution settlement
Harley-Davidson Inc. agreed Thursday to pay $15 million to settle a U.S. government complaint over racing tuners that caused its motorcycles to emit higher-than-allowed levels of air pollution.
Harley-Davidson manufactured and sold about 340,000 Screamin’ Eagle Pro Super Tuners since 2008 that allowed users to modify a motorcycle’s emissions control system to increase power and performance, according to court filings by the Justice Department and Environmental Protection Agency.
The racing tuners, which the prosecutors said were illegal “defeat devices” that circumvented emissions controls, also increased the amounts of such harmful air pollutants as nitrogen oxide spewing from the bikes’ tailpipes.
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robertscribbler
/ August 19, 2016Thanks DT. But until Fox News issues a full mea culpa for their part in engaging in deceptive activities regarding climate change, then I’m got a boycott on links to their articles here in comments.
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016OK. Sounds good.
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coloradobob
/ August 19, 2016I beg to differ , we are not flooded here with their clap trap. And every now and then they unknowingly post a bit of information. The same from the Daily Mail who seems to rip off the Siberian Times at every turn.
I recommend a caveat at the top of the link . Something like :
The blind pigs find an acorn
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016The info, and my comment, from the link that I thought important is still here. Just the link is missing — which is OK by me, and a fair way to do it.
I feel ‘tainted’ with any FN link so in future will post source w/o link.
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Christina MacPherson
/ August 19, 2016Reblogged this on nuclear-news.
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Exposing the Big Game
/ August 19, 2016Reblogged this on Exposing the Big Game.
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coloradobob
/ August 19, 2016Sheri / August 19, 2016
We , Phoenix, should have much much more water saving than we do. When the rationing comes, there will be angry people.
My question will be, with all the heat everywhere else in US where will you go that will be cooler and greener,?
Thanks, Robert.
Sheri
————————————-
I can’t sat where to go, Sheri, but I can say don’t dawdle . One does not want to show up at the Canadian Border with everyone from “Sun City”.
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coloradobob
/ August 19, 2016RS –
My Firefox has lost it’s mind, so I came in on Chrome. Which turned into a happy thing, I have an avtar , me hugging a tree on the “Avenue of the Giants” in the Red Wood Forest.
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PlazaRed
/ August 19, 2016Good to see the real you from the trees point of view Bob.
I got all sorts of strange signals from Firefox trying to give me odd avatars today so maybe I should seek out a natural nature based companion like you have for an avatar. Still happening now?
Nasty storm potential in 99L in the Atlantic, may cause problems later on for the GOM?
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coloradobob
/ August 19, 2016PlazaRed –
Your perch in Spain is so important to all of us . I have read every post you ever made.
I have long thought that the Sahara will the jump the “Gates of Hercules”. And invade Spain like the Moors. But this invasion is not doing to build Andalusia.
By the way Donovan is going on tour, After 50 years, The only one who ever sang about Andalusia.
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wili
/ August 20, 2016Ah, you’re forgetting The Doors “Spanish Caravan” with the line: “Andalusia with fields full of grain”
Great flamenco guitar opening by Robby Krieger…the only time I can recall that my father ever commented positively about musical artistry in a song from a rock band was after he heard that opening.
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PlazaRed
/ August 20, 2016Thanks for that Bob.
I look at being here a sitting on the thin part of an egg timer, the sand to one side and vast empty spaces at the other. If it was not for a small mountain to the south of me I would be able to see North Africa from my kitchen window, Morocco is about 60 miles away, its quite green and lush in the north until after the Atlas mountains, then its into the Sahara a desert bigger than the USA by a long way.
In my oppinion the Shara will invade Europe accross from Algeria, from the Barcleona area east towards northern Italy, probably soon as droughts are now a common feature of the area.
Andalicia is always mainly dry on the coasts and has a desert at Almeria where a lot of western movies are made. The saving grace for us are the rains in the winter and the snows on the Spanish Sierra Nevada mountains.
Having said that the plants on the moutains seem to be dying off over the last 5 years, lots of bare rock on the mountain tops now. Also a lot of native plants which grow on roof tiles have gone, we now no longer seem to have any of these in my town.
Donovan used to live along te coast from me in the Marbella area, I don’t know if he is still there!
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Cate
/ August 19, 2016The Climate Mobilization has released today a “draft for commentary”-of their “Victory Plan”—“an economic approach that directs the collective force of industry away from consumerism and toward a singular national purpose”.
I haven’t read the whole thing, but it appears to be significant enough to post here right away for your perusal and consideration.
This is essentially a discussion paper and they are looking for feedback. The link below is to the paper itself—110-page PDF. You can respond via links on their FB page, The Climate Mobilization, or their website, theclimatemobilzation.org
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bze7GXvI3ywrSGxYWDVXM3hVUm8/view
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wili
/ August 20, 2016Thanks for this link. I find it sad that Al Gore had already come up with much the same plan 25 years ago (although he compared it to a GW Marshall Plan). I’m guessing that he is the one who could not be named in the intro who helped influence the Democratic Platform to adopt this language.
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coloradobob
/ August 19, 2016It’s the small things –
Montana Officials Close Yellowstone River To Fight Fish-Killing Parasite
A microscopic parasite is ravaging the fish population of the Yellowstone River in Montana prompting state officials to ban water-based recreation along a 183-mile stretch of the river and all of its tributaries…………………………… The culprit causes proliferative kidney disease in the fish and it’s been found in only two isolated parts of Montana in the past 20 years. Outbreaks have also been documented in other Northwestern states such as Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. The parasite is not a danger to humans.
The disease gets a boost from other conditions in the river such as low flow, consistent high temperatures, and the impact of recreational activities.
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/08/19/490679757/montana-officials-close-yellowstone-river-to-fight-fish-killing-parasite
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George W. Hayduke
/ August 21, 2016Hope this doesn’t make its way to other rivers here in Montana. The flows right now are as low as I’ve seen them. A creek I’ve fished since I was 7 years old measured 63° in July, no bueno for trout. The last two years have seriously stressed our fisheries.
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coloradobob
/ August 19, 2016From the business arm of NBC –
Arctic sea ice is vanishing far faster than anyone thought possible
Arctic sea ice is melting at a rate far faster than anyone thought, and it is already wildly, and perhaps permanently, changing the region, and the planet.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/19/arctic-sea-ice-is-vanishing-far-faster-than-anyone-thought-possible.html
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coloradobob
/ August 19, 2016“This is not something that will affect humanity in the far off future,” Wagner said, “loss of this ice is already wildly changing the Arctic,” and rippling outward to the rest of the planet.
“The planet is not just changing, it is changed,” Wagner said. “And we have to deal with the change that has occurred. The melting of the glaciers in Alaska and Canada and Greenland is already raising sea levels to the point that Miami and New York are experiencing flooding.”
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016– Asbestos – Small processes have big ramifications:
‘dissolved organic matter contained within the soil sticks to the asbestos particles, creating a change of the electric charge on the outside of the particle that allows it to easily move through the soil.’
New Study Challenges Assumption of Asbestos’ Ability to Move in Soil
Scripps scientist findings may have implications for current remediation strategies
Aug 19, 2016
A new study led by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego scientist Jane Willenbring challenges the long-held belief that asbestos fibers cannot move through soil. The findings have important implications for current remediation strategies aimed at capping asbestos-laden soils to prevent human exposure of the cancer-causing material.
Willenbring, along with University of Pennsylvania postdoctoral researcher Sanjay Mohanty, and colleagues tested the idea that once capped by soil, asbestos waste piles are locked in place. Instead they found that dissolved organic matter contained within the soil sticks to the asbestos particles, creating a change of the electric charge on the outside of the particle that allows it to easily move through the soil.
“Asbestos gets coated with a very common substance that makes it easier to move,” said Willenbring, an associate professor in the Geosciences Research Division at Scripps. “If you have water with organic matter next to the asbestos waste piles, such as a stream, you then have a pathway from the waste pile and possibly to human inhalation.”
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/new-study-challenges-assumption-asbestos-ability-move-soil
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coloradobob
/ August 20, 2016It’s the small things.
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Shawn Redmond
/ August 20, 2016That works both ways CB
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dtlange
/ August 19, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 19, 2016LikeLike
coloradobob
/ August 19, 2016Donovan – Season of the Witch
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coloradobob
/ August 20, 2016Donovan – Mellow Yellow
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coloradobob
/ August 20, 2016Hurdy Gurdy
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coloradobob
/ August 20, 2016Here we are, at the end of the old world. Clawing to understand the new world. I am in a happy spot, I get to die before this all comes down.
Good luck folks . your need ir it.
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coloradobob
/ August 20, 2016Good luck folks . your gonna need it.
I mean that , I get to die, you get to carry on. My death , is a drop in the bucket . Your guts, will; save us.
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DaveW
/ August 20, 2016Don’t know when you “expect” to go offstage, CB, but I expect a lot more is going to be coming down in just the next 5 – 10 years. This is no longer a problem just for our grandchildren – things are moving too fast.
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Cate
/ August 20, 2016Fast indeed, Dave W. I think little signs get overlooked—dt talks about the colour of the sky, the look of the clouds, for example. Another one: out here on the Rock, summer cools off first during August nights, and gardeners traditionally expect a first frost by mid-August. But this August, night-time temperatures have hardly budged below 10C, with most nights in the mid-teens. This is forecast to continue through next week. No-one remembers this happening before for such a long period.
CB, don’t count yourself out yet.
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John McCormick
/ August 20, 2016We adults are the last generation to actually do something to slow the rate of warming. State governments are the only game we can play. There is no Congress.
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Jay M
/ August 20, 2016Fiona:
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Jay M
/ August 20, 2016Fiona debuts in the hot-lantic:
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Aghast In Japan
/ August 20, 2016Does anyone feel like they’re rebellious RP McMurphy, the planet is a certain old Oregon Psychiatric institution(derelict/abandoned), & all deniers are personified by Nurse Ratchett?
Wanna go on a bus trip? :^)
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016Affirmative. Quite often. And I’m in Oregon….
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016Also Chief Bromden. The opening of the book from his POV is a gem. The movie is good too. Prankster Ken Kesey, RIP.
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Aghast In Japan
/ August 20, 2016Cheers DT..Hard to think of a better book/movie adaptation. Can’t believe a young Michael Douglas put such a work together. Feel like messages of that era were more powerful than almost any other.
Did we take a wrong turn at precisely that time?
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Mulga Mumblebrain
/ August 20, 2016Aghast, book movie adaptation of ‘The Tin Drum’ comes to mind. I mark the wrong turn from 1975, and the coup in Australia, removing our best ever Government, and the fall of Saigon, that sent the Right mad.
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wili
/ August 20, 2016Powell Memorandum (1971)was the beginning of the corporate backlash against people’s gains in rights during the ’60’s and the subsequent overwhelming of congress with corporate lobbyists. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_F._Powell_Jr.#Powell_Memorandum
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Aghast In Japan
/ August 20, 2016Haven’t read that yet Mulga, but it sounds rather fascinating. Like reading a book, before enjoying the flick…
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Cate
/ August 20, 2016Aghast, did we take a wrong turn at precisely that time?
Absolutely, we did. By my recollection, we were on track up until about, oh, the late 1970s or so? Pollution, excess consumption, energy conservation, and self-reliance (crafts, DIY, back-to-the-land) were mainstream. I remember even my mother pointedly removing excess packaging from purchased items at the store in the name of “protecting the environment.” The vocabulary and emphases were a little different, of course, but the general, and I think, growing, motivation was to live within the means of the planet. It was the age of “Limits to Growth”, after all. People were taking it to heart.
And then along came the New World Order.
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Cate
/ August 20, 2016EDIT Well, that third sentence is a bit bizarre….Fix it to : “Awareness of pollution and excess consumption” etc… Note to self: never post before Cuppa #2. 🙂
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Aghast In Japan
/ August 20, 2016Were you on “The Rock” at that time Cate? My folks are from NB..way back when.
Mostly how I sees it. Culture seemed to go a little insane after the 70’s. It’s the decade my nostalgia always takes me back to.
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016– The magical realism of Oscar’s narrative dealing with the beginnings of WW II in Danzig onwards in ‘The Tin Drum’ is outstanding.
– BTW The ‘wrongest’ turn we made was our mass acceptance, before WW II, of the automobile and its fossil fuel internal combustion engine — a major downturn.
Of this I have no doubt.
WW II was all about mechanized (fossil fuel) warfare. After that the mechanized ‘car culture’ and its false promises exploded.
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016Ps FYI the US Interstate highway system that begat so many ‘free’-ways were put in place to facilitate DOD movements.
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Mulga Mumblebrain
/ August 22, 2016Cate, the reaction against environmentalism, which is still ferocious here in Australia, led by the Murdoch Evil, occurred simply because protecting the environment on which we depend for our existence, threatened the capitalists’ First Commandment, ‘Thou shalt maximise profits at all times’, and the Second Commandment, ‘Everything but Greed is an ‘Externality’ and is anathema’. They could have accepted less profit and less wealth, but their greed is insatiable, just like the highly malignant cancers. The Club of Rome, in the ‘Limits to Growth’ report, pointed out our projectory, predicting collapse starting forty years after their report, ie now. The Right still gibber that they were wrong.
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Mulga Mumblebrain
/ August 22, 2016dt, I feel like Oscar frequently, wanting to scream so loudly that things explode. Or just beat my drum so loud that I drown out the gibbering chorus of mass cretinism.
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mlparrish
/ August 20, 2016OT again, but on the expanding scope of the Zika disaster. Zika infection in adults may not always be benign:
Zika infection may affect adult brain cells. New findings suggest risk may not be limited to fetuses of pregnant women. August 18, 2016 Rockefeller University
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/08/160818131134.htm
The report is upcoming in Cell Stem Cell, Nov 3, 2016. In a mouse model they found that Zika affected adult mouse brain cells in a fashion similar to fetal ones. The specific cells involved are critical neuroprogenitor stem cells that replenish areas of learning and memory throughout life. When damaged the picture in adults is not pretty:
“Deficits in this process are associated with cognitive decline and neuropathological conditions, such as depression and Alzheimer’s disease.
Gleeson and colleagues recognize that healthy humans may be able to mount an effective immune response and prevent the virus from attacking. However, they suggest that some people, such as those weakened immune systems, may be vulnerable to the virus is a way that has not yet been recognized. “In more subtle cases, the virus could theoretically impact long-term memory or risk of depression,” says Gleeson, “but tools do not exist to test the long-term effects of Zika on adult stem cell populations.”
Again, this was not a human study, but the authors suggest adult monitoring would be a good idea.
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Mulga Mumblebrain
/ August 20, 2016Just what we need-humanity growing yet more stupid. It might not affect those already severely affected. The idiots will inherit the Earth, but not for long.
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Leland Palmer
/ August 20, 2016As an aging person (60 years old), suffering from increasing short term memory problems (nothing abnormal, I hope) this scares the snot out of me. There is nothing like personal risk to make a person take something seriously.
One hundred seventy Zika virus cases in California, though, none of them listed as acquired locally, thank goodness.
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/HealthInfo/discond/Documents/TravelAssociatedCasesofZikaVirusinCA.pdf
Still, investing in new screen material for the windows and installing some UV flying insect zappers can’t hurt.
To bad we can’t cure global warming itself with window screens and bug zappers.
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mlparrish
/ August 20, 2016My mental response to this virus is running shrieking in the streets. It’s Nature’s WMD and humans are obligingly spreading it over the globe. No one would listen to the scientists either when they said not to have the Olympics in Rio.
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Leland Palmer
/ August 20, 2016Yes, it’s seriously scary. The risk to you and I is low, right now, but in a few years? Who knows? And what about the poor Zika babies?
I guess the epidemiologists really, really don’t like jet airplanes, so I’ve read. Maybe this Olympics will teach us a lesson about global warming, pathogens and jet airplanes – I hope not.
I don’t see why with modern communications technology we can’t have a “virtual Olympics”, distributed around the world in air conditioned stadiums close to sea level.
Fortunately for me and my wife, we live in California, with a relatively sane Democrat Governor – Jerry Brown. It’s not like Florida, where Republican Governor Rick Scott cut mosquito control funding but now blames the Federal Government for the Zika epidemic in Florida. Florida now has over 400 Zika cases – some new cases have now been confirmed to be locally transmitted there.
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/08/scott-boasts-about-states-zika-fight-but-slashed-mosquito-control-funding-to-save-money-104539
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Leland Palmer
/ August 21, 2016Wow..Puerto Rico now has almost 7,900 cases, just about all (98%) of them locally transmitted.
http://www.cdc.gov/zika/geo/united-states.html
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Genomik
/ August 21, 2016vaccine deniers, like climate deniers, have helped make the situation worse. They have litigated the vaccine industry almost out of business. If you are a PhD and you are at a party and tell people you do vaccine research you are likely to get the cold shoulder.
There’s a lot to be upset about with for profit pharmaceutical world but in general vaccines are the best thing ever invented by man.
Hopefully they will develop a vaccine. Maybe they will only offer it to people who sign a document saying vaccines work!
If this article is true it’s a scary world for cognition. Imagine all the pesticides they will have to spray to slow the mosquito!
Maybe fire and flood insurance can only pay out if the person agrees climate change is real.
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mlparrish
/ August 23, 2016What a choice. Pesticides can’t be good for cognition, either. Certainly not for the bees. It took 15 years, 1935-1950, with a few disasters along the way, to develop a vaccine for the last major neurotrophic virus, polio. Let’s hope this one is not so intractable.
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Genomik
/ August 23, 2016I even think climate change can spread disease such as Lymes disease as during bad flooding infected ticks can be spread downstream to colonize new areas. Thus one could make a case that extreme flooding could easily act as a mechanism for increased spread of many pathogens of all sorts!
There was a vaccine for Lymes disease that was taken off the market due to anti vaccine balderdash. I’ve personally met many people who have had Lymes disease many with terrible, terrible outcomes. Recently I met a man who has it along with his wife and young child. He is so upset that we actually had a vaccine that was taken off the market for no good reason.
This is relevant as Zika may become a real problem all over the world and to let a small group of voiciferous wrongheaded people cause bad outcomes for the majority is a real problem. Like with climate change.
http://m.historyofvaccines.org/content/articles/history-lyme-disease-vaccine
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mlparrish
/ August 25, 2016Upset doesn’t begin it. Here you are putting life and limb at risk just walking in your rural yard. Got RMSF that way last year (and the grass was well clipped), was treated promptly and am fine. Growing up here in a rural area there were no deer ticks in the woods. Woods were safe and I had a ball. Just the occasional dog tick. Terrible now.
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 20, 2016– Decision Time India
State Relief Commissioner cum Secretary LRDD Mr. Tsegyal Tashi convened an urgent meeting in his chamber on 18th August, 2016 which was attended by representatives of Central Water Commission, Geological Survey of India and Department of Mines and Minerals. The meeting discussed the landslide at Mantam and the mitigation measures with emphasis on ways and means for safe discharge of water from the dam site without any further loss of time. The priority is to restore the road communication and connectivity cut off areas of three GPUs in Upper Dzongu. While doing so, one must be extremely careful and proper scientific investigations must be undertaken and expert opinion sought before making any interventions at the site in order to avoid the dam bursting and flooding downstream.
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 20, 2016E N/E of Namprik
https://www.google.com/maps/@27.53814,88.48863,2298m/data=!3m1!1e3
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 20, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 20, 2016Ryan Maue Verified account @RyanMaue 26m26 minutes ago
Tropical Storm Lionrock is stuck, forced to move WSW away from Japan as Typhoon Mindulle whips into Tokyo #Fujiwhara
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016LikeLike
Aghast In Japan
/ August 20, 2016Guess I won’t be cycling as much(next few days) here in Japan’s Kansai region. Just hope we’re not paddling…
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PlazaRed
/ August 20, 2016This storm situation looks quite interesting for 48 hours from now around the North Pole.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/08/22/0900Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-0.18,86.06,1306
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Cate
/ August 20, 2016A blender mixing up a slushie. 😦
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Abel Adamski
/ August 20, 2016http://www.smh.com.au/technology/innovation/breakthrough-results-in-batteries-half-the-size-with-the-same-amount-of-power-20160819-gqwcxb.html
A new kind of rechargeable battery with twice the energy capacity of contemporary lithium ion batteries could be arriving in your devices as early as next year.
The breakthrough lithium metal batteries come from SolidEnergy Systems, a US company set up by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) alumni specifically for the purpose of developing the new efficient batteries.
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Cate
/ August 20, 2016Viddaloo in his Wunderground blog makes a mathematical prediction for the “first ice-free August” in the Arctic in 2024. He also mentions some of the implications of this event.
This is one of a series of recent posts by him on Arctic sea ice collapse in 2016. I’d be interested in your thoughts—anyone?
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/viddaloo/arctic-sea-ice-collapse-19-july16-august-annual-average-volume
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Josh
/ August 20, 2016My thoughts – I would love to believe that this inevitable (at some point at least) event won’t be as bad as Viddaloo suggests, but I’m more scared than optimistic.
If people can get this type of consequence into their heads though, I do have hope that we can prepare at least a bit.
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Cate
/ August 22, 2016Josh, there is lots of good info on an ice-free Arctic over at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum—check out the thread “blue ocean in the Arctic” under the Consequences heading.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1542.0.html
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Cate
/ August 20, 2016Crystal Serenity will be collecting 15,000 gallons of human sewage and another 116,000 gallons of greywater daily, which will be discharged untreated–and presumably uncooled?– into Arctic waters.
This is an example of one of the several huge threats posed by increased shipping to this vulnerable and sensitive area, as sea-ice disappears.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/08/19/arctic-faces-boom-in-shipping-as-ice-melts/
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Cate
/ August 22, 2016CORRECTION: According to their website, Crystal Cruises do treat sewage to some minimal level in line with international regulations before they disgorge it.
My bad.
My objections to “extinction tourism” parading as “epic expeditions” in the Arctic stand.
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Abel Adamski
/ August 20, 2016One for DT and CB
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/08/160818145952.htm
Born prepared for global warming… thanks to their parents’ songs
“By calling to their eggs, zebra finch parents may be helping their young prepare for a hotter world brought on by climate change. Uncovering such a mechanism represents a significant advance in the effort to understand how species are adapting to a warming climate.
“Incubation calling,” paired with the ability of embryos to hear external sounds, is just one of an array of prenatal guidance tools shared by many animal groups.
However, these behaviors’ relation to evolutionary and survival capacities, especially in a rapidly changing environment, are understudied — a gap that Mylene M. Mariette and Katherine L. Buchanan sought to fill by homing in on incubation calling.
Hypothesizing that these calls help the unborn offspring of zebra finches anticipate their new environment, the authors recorded the incubation calls of 61 female and 61 male “wild-derived” zebra finches nesting in outdoor aviaries during naturally changing temperatures. They observed that finch parents called to their eggs only during the end of the incubation period and only when the maximum temperature rose above 26°Celsius (or 78°Farhenheit).
To test whether this calling behavior specifically prepared offspring for high temperatures, Mariette and Buchanan exposed finch eggs to recorded incubation calls or regular parent contact calls.
When the eggs hatched, the group of nestlings exposed to the former type of call weighed less than control birds. Though a smaller mass would seem disadvantageous, the authors showed that it actually correlated with less oxidative damage — the harmful build-up of unstable molecules in DNA, proteins, and fats — thus arguing that reduced mass may ultimately benefit finch health at stressful higher temperatures.
Corresponding with their prediction, after tracking the nestlings’ maturity, the researchers found that the lower-mass “treatment” finches produced more fledglings in their first breeding season. What’s more, incubation calling may stimulate habits across generations, the authors say, as treatment males preferred to nest in higher-temperature areas than did control males. Mariette and Buchanan’s research takes a lead in gauging the impact of global warming on species’ survival.
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016– Thanks, Abel
It makes sense for natural parents to give useful information to offspring.
I’ve raised a few chickens – and have seen/heard a brooding hen ‘talk’ to eggs under her as she turns them.
Nature, if left alone, takes care of itself quite well.
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Mulga Mumblebrain
/ August 22, 2016Abel, I often feel inclined, when hearing of such wondrous things, to agree with JBS Haldane that reality is not just stranger than we imagine, but stranger than we can imagine.
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016“Without a major reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, our study suggests that years like 2012 in the US could become normal by mid-century.’
– Posting the full abstract here:
Identifying anomalously early spring onsets in the CESM large ensemble project
Seasonal transitions from winter to spring impact a wide variety of ecological and physical systems. While the effects of early springs across North America are widely documented, changes in their frequency and likelihood under the combined influences of climate change and natural variability are poorly understood. Extremely early springs, such as March 2012, can lead to severe economical losses and agricultural damage when these are followed by hard freeze events. Here we use the new Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project and Extended Spring Indices to simulate historical and future spring onsets across the United States and in the particular the Great Lakes region. We found a marked increase in the frequency of March 2012-like springs by midcentury in addition to an overall trend towards earlier spring onsets, which nearly doubles that of observational records. However, changes in the date of last freeze do not occur at the same rate, therefore, causing a potential increase in the threat of plant tissue damage. Although large-scale climate modes, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, have previously dominated decadal to multidecadal spring onset trends, our results indicate a decreased role in natural climate variability and hence a greater forced response by the end of the century for modulating trends. Without a major reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, our study suggests that years like 2012 in the US could become normal by mid-century.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3313-2
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 20, 2016All India Radio News Verified account @airnewsalerts 6h6 hours ago
Smoke from a #wildfire in Greenhorn mountains is seen from Lake Isabella, #California.
Photo: PTI
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 20, 2016Veronica Miracle Verified account @VeronicaABC30 50m50 minutes ago Fresno, CA
Pic posted by @FresnoFire EMT of the #CedarFire burning in Kern County. It’s 14,500+ acres and only 5% contained.
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 20, 2016FYI
Green Party candidate Jill Stein calls for climate state of emergency
Presidential hopeful points to California wildfires and Louisiana flooding in push for Green New Deal to address both environment and economy
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/20/jill-stein-green-party-climate-state-of-emergency
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seal in the Selkirks
/ August 20, 2016CB, I tend to agree with DaveW and Cate, the collapse of the climate our species built civilizations in isn’t in the future, it’s now. And it’s been happening for decades that many of us older folk noticed as adults in the early 70s. Us surfers were seeing dramatic changes to the ocean back then, but we didn’t seem to be able to do anything about it or get people to listen because nobody wanted to listen. The mass majority still don’t. Obviously.
We joined the Sierra Club, the NRDC, the Nature Conservancy, donated time and money and effort, signed petitions and marched and sent letters to congress critters etc etc, and all we got was Ronnie Rayguns in the 1980s.
And that, for me, was the start of the fall off the climate cliff. 36 years of capitalist neo-liberalism since and we can’t even see the edge of the cliff above us anymore.
CB, you, and me at almost 62, are doubtless going to continue to see and experience what used to be thought of as only possible for the great-grandchildren or as in my case, the step-grandkids. It already isn’t much of a fun ride, is it? Gonna get oh-so-worse.
It was 70’F at 1:30am here in the mountains of Eastern Washington State Wednesday night. But it cooled down Thursday to 68’F at 1:30am. I’m not even bothering to go outside after noon at this point because it’s just too hot. My calendar going back months is nearly all 90s or hotter every damned day. Except when the monster lightning t-storms roar in. 18 of those so far.
The red firs here are dying all over the mountains that, according to a report from the UofOregon, is directly related to drought. Dig a hole on the property and all you get is dust.
RobSpear, I made the choice like you to shift my lifestyle, put in a passive 7kWt Outback solar system instead of replacing the ’93 Toyota 4x I still have, drive less than 6,000 miles a year, haven’t been on a plane since 1998, got rid of the tv in 1993, never owned a cellphone, and am so broke that I couldn’t do it again now. And what is happening all around the world is so much worse that despair is hard to not feel.
But don’t give in to it! Keep trying to prod critical thinking out of the people around you even if you get poo-poo’d. I have found in the last few years of wildly erratic weather around here that even the extremely right wing Republican bush-voting types are actually starting to listen and ask me questions when I bump into them in Chewelah. One recently told me that I’m the only one he listens to about climate (and yes, RS, this site is one that I send them to). That in itself tells me that what I report is actually making a difference no matter how slight it may be.
PS: the last segment of my book on being a riversurfing pioneer in the 80s in Jackson Hole has been published at: riverbreak.com/news/stories titled: The Lunch Counter Trilogy I, II, III
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Aghast In Japan
/ August 20, 2016Interesting perspective.
I’m no sociologist..but I keep wondering what will happen within modern, developed societies(definition likely varies), when say 30~50% come to a hard realization that the jig is up? Perhaps novelists have better insights than scientific “experts”? Maybe one’s fav dystopian novel will be more helpful than the daily news?
Seems a 64 million $ question. Are gov’ts AFRAID of the populace realizing the scope & scale?
How do reactions vary, based upon contrast of groups?
– educated vs non
– urban vs rural(& in between)
– male/female
– established vs immigrant(possibly transient, excluding Borat)
– affluent/privileged vs not-so-much
We’re doin’ a big social experiment here, it would appear…
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Andy_in_SD
/ August 21, 2016I find this to be the most vexing question of all.
I suspect we are seeing the first response, migration and xenophobia. And so many more to come….
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marcyincny
/ August 21, 2016This is the question that most concerns me now and I find it frustrating that there’s so little consideration of it. I suspect TPTB will continue to divert the attention of the populace as long as possible making the outcome even more tragic.
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miles h
/ August 22, 2016i don think theyre afraid of telling us…. but i do think that Gvt’s are aware that the necessary steps to do anything meaningful to halt catastrophic warming are too big to take. how can they contemplate telling their electorates that 90% of fossil fuel use must stop immediately. that the production (and purchase) of consumer goods that keep our economies afloat must come to a juddering halt. that everyone’s going to have to stop eating meat…. etc etc…. its not a viable electoral platform. i think gvt action is utterly circumscribed by dread of the electorates’ response to the necessary measures. they are paralysed… and the paralysis factor gets stronger each year as the necessary steps to curb warming get bigger. democratically, it’s an impossible situation. im sure gvt’s are as scared as we are, and as helpless as we are. its not a conspiracy; it’s simply an impossible situation to deal with (unless someone comes up with some ‘magic bullet’ solution – of which there is none.)
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Mulga Mumblebrain
/ August 29, 2016milesh, all those necessary moves are far superior to seeing your children die, horribly and prematurely. Most people would make the sacrifices, as in war-time. The REAL reason that politicians in the West will not move is that their REAL Masters, the parasitic elite who rule society under capitalism because they own it, being psychopaths, will not allow them to. For the privilege of living under a kleptocratic oligarchy we get not just ever increasing poverty, inequality and elite wealth, and generalised ecological collapse, but auto-genocide as well,
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miles h
/ September 2, 2016sadly, i dont think that most people would make those sacrifices. and most people are actually unable to do so… transport workers, miners, energy sector workers….etc… wont vote themselves out of a job; they have families to feed.
i dont buy big World Master conspiracies (though kleptocratic oligarchies are very real); realpolitik is enough to explain things. “vote for me and youll lose your car, your heating, your job and your lifestyle” just isnt a winning platform. people in general dont think or vote long-term – they worry about next week. climate disaster has no upside for the World Masters either.
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 20, 2016– More serious flooding.
Published on Aug 19, 2016
Torrential rains brought by typhoon Dianmu have affected south China’s Hainan Province since Thursday, flooding cities and counties and posing threats to local residents.
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016At the end — sand is a most precious commodity. A long line of sandbag workers are in a race with the water.
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016Haikou, capital of south China’s Hainan Province.
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 20, 2016– Note March US at TS and large hail.
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Cate
/ August 20, 2016BC’s new climate plan is attracting plenty of criticism.
http://www.straight.com/news/758591/bc-climate-plan-criticized-delaying-new-emissions-targets-and-carbon-tax-increase
“The document, released on a Friday afternoon in August, potentially to attract as little attention as possible, makes clear that B.C. has essentially abandoned its legislated goal to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by 33 percent below 2007 levels by the year 2020.In addition, the plan makes no mention of a recommendation made by the leadership team that stated that B.C. should implement a legislated target for 2030 to reduce emissions by 40 percent below 2007 levels by that date.”
The govt makes it clear that any action to “improve environmental performance [sic] cannot be…sustainable if it works against our economic competitiveness…..”
In other words, according to the govt of BC, all climate change solutions must work within the established capitalist paradigm of unlimited growth.
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dtlange
/ August 20, 2016– The good ole Georgia Straight…
Note: “competitiveness” over survival.
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DaveW
/ August 21, 2016“In other words, according to the govt of BC, all climate change solutions must work within the established capitalist paradigm of unlimited growth.”
As we used to say when I was a kid –
So what else is new?
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Cate
/ August 21, 2016Dave W, exactly. The thing is, in order to combat global warming we need new thinking from the very top.
dt, yep—are my roots showing? haha For anyone not familiar with this paper—
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Georgia_Straight
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Mulga Mumblebrain
/ August 22, 2016The death cultists put economic growth before ecological stability-still! Surely they must want the disaster to consume us. No-one can be that dumb and ignorant, so late in the day.
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Cate
/ August 22, 2016MM, this is precisely Lovelock’s (controversial) contention, that homo sapiens is simply not intelligent enough—we have not evolved enough—to meet this challenge we have created. I’m not sure I agree with him, because I see plenty of evidence—in community, on a micro level—-that we CAN collectively put aside self-interest and greed in favour of co-operation for the common good. Whether we can do this now on a global level remains to be seen. Leadership, I think, Is key, and it has to be brave and bold.
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smallbluemike
/ August 22, 2016I think the leadership has to be at grass roots level. I don’t think our power structures will allow for bold leadership from top down on systemic change that threatens the accumulation of wealth and power in the hands of the few.
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dtlange
/ August 21, 2016pNW PDX — With the heat we also get ozone air pollution.
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dtlange
/ August 21, 2016LikeLike
utoutback
/ August 21, 2016Here’s part of the problem: see paragraph 5.
http://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2016/08/20/why_doesnt_the_public_trust_science_109728.html
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dtlange
/ August 21, 2016“Anti-science sentiment is particularly acute among Republican voters, where many harbor beliefs about political bias in science…”
I link this attitude back to the anti-evolution (Darwin/science) bent of the extreme religious right that steers so much of the GOP.
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dtlange
/ August 21, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 21, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 21, 2016– This is pretty good. Any storm up there would have an easy time of mixing the ice.
NASA Measuring Sea Ice at the Peak of Melt
Published on Aug 19, 2016
The Arctic sea ice pack is nearing its annual minimum extent, which is projected to be one of the lowest since satellite observations began.
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danabanana
/ August 21, 2016I like how in the end it says that combining the data with satellite records will help model the future of Arctic sea ice,… as if it had an alternative future (ie recover to pre 50’s state)
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coloradobob
/ August 21, 2016SNPP/VIIRS
2016/233
08/20/2016
04:20 UTC
Tropical Storms Mindulle (10W), Lionrock (12W), and Kompasu (13W) off Japan
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coloradobob
/ August 21, 20169 inches of rain in 4 hours near San Antonio –
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NTP&rid=EWX&loop=yes
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dtlange
/ August 21, 2016LikeLike
todaysguestis
/ August 21, 2016Think It’s Hot Now? Just Wait
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/08/20/sunday-review/climate-change-hot-future.html
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todaysguestis
/ August 21, 2016LikeLike
Andy_in_SD
/ August 21, 2016With 300 million people, I look at the food belts immediately. Central valley and the mid west. With aquifer depletion there is not much to fall back on for delaying the inevitable. There is little in the way of mitigation.
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coloradobob
/ August 21, 2016LikeLike
coloradobob
/ August 21, 2016Northern Tasmanian businesses continue to struggle in floods aftermath
Communities hit hard by some of the worst flooding in Tasmania’s history are still feeling the effects nearly three months on.
The June floods caused an estimated $180 million in damage across the state, inundating homes and businesses and washing away road infrastructure.
About 350 roads and 87 bridges were damaged and access to a number of national parks and tourist attractions cut.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-21/tourism-operators-in-northern-tasmania-still-struggling-floods/7767364
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Cate
/ August 21, 2016For the record: Peter Wadhams is interviewed in The Guardian today on the occasion of the publication of his new book, A Farewell to ice. His message is familiar to Scribblers, of course, although not necessarily accepted!—he doesn’t believe we can cut carbon emissions sufficiently and pins his hope on carbon capture and storage.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/21/arctic-will-be-ice-free-in-summer-next-year
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Cate
/ August 21, 2016“A Farewell to Ice” by Peter Wadhams is out on Sept 1. The Guardian review is here:
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/aug/21/farewell-to-ice-peter-wadhams-review-climate-change
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mlparrish
/ August 21, 2016Wadhams, in addition to his 50 Arctic trips, was also the scientist who discovered the ‘chimneys’ around Greenland, the great maelstroms that send water from the surface all the way down to the sea floor. Which may no longer exist.
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Alexander Ač
/ August 21, 2016Everyone of us has some form of hope, and maybe thats part of the problem? Isnt hope business as usual?
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Josh
/ August 21, 2016We all need hope though to have the courage to make the necessary changes. But I do suspect that misplaced hope is important in helping people continue doing what they’re doing in the hope that it will all work out.
Maybe you’re right. Food for thought!
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Bill H
/ August 22, 2016Alexander, I agree. Hope is over-rated, maybe thanks to Saint Paul (Faith, hope, love). I’d question whether it’s a virtue at all.
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Mulga Mumblebrain
/ August 22, 2016Hopium puts you into a Hope Dream. You become a Hope Fiend. Perhaps you could finish ‘Kubla Khan’ for us all.
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utoutback
/ August 22, 2016Remember: Hope was the last out when Pandora opened the box….. Sometimes it’s all that keeps people going. And, then there’s the miracle! Well, maybe not.
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danabanana
/ August 23, 2016Well, yeah although Pandora and her box never existed. Hope does little to mitigate AGW as AGW is a real now thing… hope is always tomorrow which is no good when you need action now.
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Leland Palmer
/ August 24, 2016For total pessimism and lack of hope, check out some of the output of the conservative think tanks like the American Enterprise Institute.
I think we should both hope and fear, because hope drives action, and so does fear. Afraid of global warming? That’s good, we should be afraid. If triggering another great hothouse mass extinction event and methane catastrophe doesn’t scare the deniers, it emphatically should.
I think that biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) offers hope, as does some of the research into in situ mineral carbonation, like the Icelandic CarbFix program.
Global warming is a solvable problem, I think. The huge flux of solar energy through our biosphere, the ability of plants to absorb CO2, the huge reservoirs of basalt rock capable of transforming the CO2 into carbonate- all of those things argue that global warming is a solvable problem. The huge mathematical impact of BECCS on the problem, as it simultaneously displaces fossil fuel use, puts carbon back underground, and produces useful electricity that displaces more fossil fuel use argues that global warming is a solvable problem.
it just is very hard to solve global warming under capitalism as we know it in the U.S. today – capitalism bound up with oligarchy. A socialist solution of nationalizing all of the fossil fuel power plants and transforming them into BECCS power plants with solar thermal assist combined with emergency clean energy deployment and tree planting could immediately start to make a dent in the problem, i think.
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Griffin
/ August 22, 2016For more on the subject of ice loss increasing the rate of warming of the Arctic Ocean, you may find this interesting.
“When averaged over the entire Arctic Ocean, the increase in absorbed solar radiation is about 10 Watts per square meter. This is equivalent to an extra 10-watt light bulb shining continuously over every 10.76 square feet of Arctic Ocean for the entire summer. Regionally, the increase is even greater, Loeb noted. Areas such as the Beaufort Sea, which has experienced the some of the most pronounced decreases in sea-ice coverage, show a 50 watts per square meter increase.”
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=84930
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June
/ August 21, 2016It’s those ” known unknowns” and ” unknown unknowns” that get you every time.
Ocean Slime Spreading Quickly Across the Earth
“We expect to see conditions that are conducive for harmful algal blooms to happen more and more often,” says Mark Wells, with the University of Maine. “We’ve got some pretty good ideas about what will happen, but there will be surprises, and those surprises can be quite radical.”
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/08/toxic-algae/
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Alexander Ač
/ August 21, 2016“It’s pretty clear that if you change temperature, light availability and nutrients, that can absolutely change an ecosystem,” Lefebvre says. “But is it just starting? Is it getting worse? Is it the same as always? I have no idea.“
WTF??
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Mulga Mumblebrain
/ August 22, 2016Death by Slime-it seems somehow appropriate. That and the spread of jellyfish seems like a metaphor for Western politics. Slime brought to you by invertebrates.
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dtlange
/ August 21, 2016– India – Floods – Silt management
Flood situation grim in Bihar, CM Nitish Kumar says water won’t enter Patna
…
With the rise in level of the Ganga, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar on Sunday expressed apprehension of further rise in water level by tomorrow in view of release of water from Bansagar dam as flood-like situation prevailed in state.
Kumar, who held a high level meeting to assess the situation, later went on an aerial survey of Patna, Bhojpur, Saran, Vaishali, Begusarai and Khagaria. He told reporters there is at the moment no possibility of flood waters entering into Patna city.
Stressing that Ganga has become shallow due to siltation, Kumar said “I have consistently been raising this issue for the past 10 years. I had raised the issue when Manmohan Singh was the Prime Minister and now I am raising it before the Narendra Modi government.”
“I appeal to the Government of India to prepare a policy on silt management. The central government should consider it after taking stock of the situation…It should come out with the mechanism or wayout to prevent silt getting deposited in the river Ganga, otherwise it could prove to be a terrible situation in years to come,” Kumar said.
Meanwhile the rising water level of Ganga has more or less created flood-like situation in all the districts situated along the banks of the river in Bihar. Ganga and six other rivers were flowing above danger mark in Patna, Bhagalpur, Khagaria, Katihar, Siwan, Bhojpur, Buxar and Hajipur districts, a disaster management department statement said.
– indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/river
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dtlange
/ August 21, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 21, 2016Robert Speta @robertspeta 2h2 hours ago
292 flights out of Haneda Airport on Tokyo bay Cancelled
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dtlange
/ August 21, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 21, 2016Josh Morgerman Verified account @iCyclone 12m12 minutes ago
Cool visible shot of #Typhoon #MINDULLE closing in on #Tokyo #Japan. Center will pass very close to city.
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dtlange
/ August 21, 2016AOA WEATHER BLOG @AOAWEATHER 7m7 minutes ago
breakingweather: #Mindulle will pose a threat to the Japanese mainland from Monday into Tuesday: …
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Mulga Mumblebrain
/ August 22, 2016That typhoon path takes it right over Fukushima, does it not?
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coloradobob
/ August 21, 2016June / August 21, 2016
It’s those ” known unknowns” and ” unknown unknowns” that get you every time.
Yep, good article from the Nat Geo there, thanks for posting it . Here’s today’s pass over the Northwest Passage at the 250 meter resolution , note the on shore lakes that are aqua colored , and the ones that are dark, as they should be. This whole game of algae roulette , is a lot like the Russian version. We have know idea which one has a round in the chamber.
And as your link makes clear , as the system warms some are gonna gain the upper hand over ones that used to hold sway, and while they are doing that, they are rolling their gene pools like all the dice in Vegas.
Terra/MODIS
2016/234
08/21/2016
18:10 UTC
Now the off shore blooms in this shot. Again as your article makes clear . It’s a complex matrix of water temps, fresh water inflows, and nutrients flowing into the oceans that fuel these blooms. This shot shows fresh water blooms, and salt water blooms.
I gonna think we should begin seeing the thawing permafrost as a huge fertilizer dump every spring. Into places that never saw these sets of conditions.
This is a brand new niche , As watched the Russian fires this season, there was this huge bloom North East of Finland, it went on week after week, after week. I’m rather sure it was being fed in large part by the soot coming from the Russian tundra, and trees.
Just few years ago, we learned that algae grow along the bottom of sea ice, and that krill around Antarctica feed on it. We really don’t know anything about what the role the Arctic algae played growing on the bottom of that sea ice.
As you said June –
“It’s those ” known unknowns” and ” unknown unknowns” that get you every time.”
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coloradobob
/ August 21, 2016One more thing about this image, note all the skinny wiggly lines on shore , with color of weak chocolate milk that is flowing water from melting permafrost.
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coloradobob
/ August 21, 2016This is one of the most scary satellite images I have ever seen . For all the melt water flowing on shore. ponds are brown, drainages are brown, only lakes that have not inflows remain , and much of them are aqua colored.
It is truly a milestone image as the first boat load of the rich cross the Northwest Passage.
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mlparrish
/ August 22, 2016Pardon another post saying nothing, but I fully agree. How can a anyone see that and equivocate?
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mlparrish
/ August 22, 2016Holy cow! All of that delicate aqua along the shorelines and lakes is algae? It’s massive, must be killing fields.
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dtlange
/ August 21, 2016LikeLike
coloradobob
/ August 21, 2016Speaking of the Northwest Passage . I read up on the first crossing. The deniers love to point to it. It took 3 years, the boat was 30 feet long, it’s bottom was round so the ice would push it out of the ice. And the greatest cold explorer ever was in command.
THE GJØA EXPEDITION (1903-1906)
it seems possible that the Gjøa could have sailed through the Northwest Passage in one season, because Simpson Strait was free of ice when the eastern entrance was reached on 9 September. However, the navigation of the Northwest Passage was only part of the programme, the relocation of the north magnetic pole and continuous recordings of the magnetic elements during at least one full year were equally important. Since the recordings should preferably be made at a distance of about 100 miles from the magnetic pole, Amundsen was on the lookout for a suitable wintering place when approaching King William Island and was delighted at the discovery of the nearly closed and completely sheltered little bay that now on all charts carries the name Gjoa Haven. After a careful survey of the bay the Gjøa sailed into it, anchored, and stayed there for two years.
http://www.frammuseum.no/Polar-Expedition/The-Northwest-Passage-(1903-1906).aspx
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DaveW
/ August 21, 2016Link to Gjoa expedition fixed –
/Polar-Expedition/The-Northwest-Passage-(1903-1906)
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Jay M
/ August 22, 2016ship ended up at the end of Golden Gate Park for a while
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dtlange
/ August 21, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 21, 2016Tunisia: On the Front Lines of the Struggle Against Climate Change
Kerkennah is a group of islands lying off the east coast of Tunisia in the Gulf of Gabès, around 20km away from the mainland city of Sfax. The two main islands are Chergui and Gharbi. When approaching the islands by ferry, one is struck by a curious sight: the coastal waters are divided into countless parcels, separated from one another by thousands of palm tree leaves. This is what Kerkennis call charfia, a centuries-old fishing method ingeniously designed to lure fish into a capture chamber from where they can be easily recovered.
As the land is arid, agricultural activity is limited to subsistence farming. For the islanders fishing is one of the key economic activities, but for big multinational corporations it is the exploitation of oil and gas.
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/37301-tunisia-on-the-front-lines-of-the-struggle-against-climate-change
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dtlange
/ August 21, 2016‘…
The Paradox of Extractivism
Islands like Kerkennah are at the frontline of climate change as their survival is already threatened due to rising sea levels. The effects of climate change and the climate crisis are compounded by environmental degradation and the exhaustion of natural resources caused by a productivist model of development based on extractivism, a mechanism of neo-colonial plunder and appropriation.
This model is based on what David Harvey has called accumulation by dispossession, which is accompanied by the development of underdevelopment and socio-ecological violence. This is the paradox of extractivism under capitalism, where sacrifice zones are created in order to maintain the accumulation of capital. Kerkennah is just one example.
Kerkenni people are forced to adapt to a situation they did not create and are at the mercy of powerful and corrupt polluters who hide behind the shield of state repression.’
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Mulga Mumblebrain
/ August 22, 2016‘Accumulation by dispossession’= theft, on a monstrous scale.’ Behind every fortune lies a crime’.
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coloradobob
/ August 21, 2016“We were ready to leave on the first of March. The thermometer showed -55°C (-63°F). But through the month of February we had become so accustomed to the cold that it did not bother us much
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coloradobob
/ August 21, 2016A few days later, on 26 August, the first ship coming from the west was sighted, the Charles Hansson of San Francisco, commanded by Captain J. McKenna, who was the first to congratulate Amundsen on his success. Amundsen, of course, hoped to reach the Bering Strait and civilization that year, but ice conditions were bad. As early as September 2 progress was stopped at King Point, near Herschel Island, and within a week it was evident that another winter had to be spent in the Arctic. This time the Gjøa had much company because no fewer than 12 ships had been caught at Herschel Island
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coloradobob
/ August 21, 2016The next time you read that the North West is a breeze, read this.
The Gjøa did not, however, return to Norway for some years. She was presented to the city of San Francisco and was in 1909 placed in Golden Gate Park. She deteriorated badly, but was restored in 1947-49. In 1972 she was returned to Norway, where she is displayed on land outside the Fram Museum. In 2012 she will be housed in a new extension to the Fram Museum.
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coloradobob
/ August 21, 2016Little ships do great things.
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coloradobob
/ August 21, 2016As i said, I’ve read about the Northwest Passage. Here’s hoping those those rich bastards catch small pox from melting graves.
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DaveW
/ August 21, 2016Clever image from a comment on the Arctic sea ice forum:
Mankind breaks North Pole’s heart.
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dtlange
/ August 21, 2016– Via Gavin Schmidt and Peter Sinclair.
– This is pretty good. A short video inside that leads to a longer one.
Professor Brian Cox (He makes me think of some else too … RS.) is quite deft in his presentations that counter a ‘denier’.
Denier Destroyed on Aussie TV. Crowd Goes Wild
…
News.com.au:
ONE of the world’s most accomplished scientists clashed with a climate change denier from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party on Monday night. The result? Captivating television.
British physicist Professor Brian Cox and newly-elected Queensland Senator Malcolm Roberts went head-to-head over climate change science on the ABC’s Q&A program.
Viewers knew the showdown was coming long before it started. Mr Roberts has previously questioned the legitimacy of claims that humans are responsible for a warming planet. He’s even called for a royal commission into climate science.
https://climatecrocks.com/2016/08/19/denier-dissected-destroyed-on-aussie-tv/
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Abel Adamski
/ August 22, 2016Note one of the “experts” he quotes is none other than Steve Goddard AKA Tony Heller.
Talk about scraping the bottom of the barrel
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016We weren’t to notice…
Via Michael E, Mann — this has a number of links
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Leland Palmer
/ August 25, 2016Yes, we have to wonder where Malcolm Roberts gets his information and why he is saying such things, that NASA is involved in some great conspiracy to corrupt the data, for example.
Here’s what DeSmogBlog has to say:
http://www.desmogblog.com/malcolm-roberts
” He has also said that he believes international banking institutions are behind “climate fraud” and that a 1992 United Nation’s document to promote a global approach to sustainable development – Agenda 21 – is part of a campaign for “global governance”.
So, he has bought into a lot of the Alex Jones crap, it sounds like. Interestingly enough, Alex Jones (of infowars.com and prisonplanet.com) alleges all sorts of elite conspiracies – but promotes solutions to those conspiracies that actually benefit the financial elites. He’s for getting big government out of the lives of people, for example – allowing fossil fuel industries to go on extracting and burning fossil fuels free of regulation.
Apparently Malcolm Roberts is a former coal miner himself, and is a member of Australian coal mine owners associations.
If he admitted global warming, he would have to admit that most of his life has been spent helping to destabilize the climate, I think. There is of course a possible money motive in what he says. If he’s not cashing in on money from the coal industry to support his political career, he’s missing out, I think. Certainly such money is available and other people are riding that fossil fuel industry gravy train.
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016Dahr Jamail’s latest:
In Arctic, Ancient Diseases Reanimate and Highways Melt as Temperatures Hit “Frenzy” of Records
By the time I’d reached the end of my 10 years of reportage on the impacts of the US occupation of Iraq in 2013, it was impossible for me to find an Iraqi who did not have a family member, relative or friend who had been killed either by US troops, an act of non-state sponsored terrorism or random violence spun off one of the aforementioned.
Now, having spent the entire summer in Alaska, I’ve yet to have a conversation with national park rangers, glaciologists or simply avid outdoors-people that has not included a story of disbelief, amazement and often shock over the impacts of anthropogenic climate disruption (ACD) across their beloved state.
Whether it is rivers causing massive erosion after being turbo-charged by rapidly melting glaciers, dramatically warmer temperatures throughout the year, or the increasingly rapid melting and retreat of the glaciers themselves, everyone who is out there, seeing the impacts firsthand, has a grave experience to share.
…
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/37310-in-arctic-ancient-diseases-reanimate-and-highways-melt-as-temperatures-hit-frenzy-of-records
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Aghast In Japan
/ August 22, 2016Thanks, DT. Love Dahr Jamail’s work. Back when we were all hopelessly brainwashed & impressionable(yet believing in western civ), this is what I believed a journalist was for. Before the stakes got too high, blokes with such principles could likely climb higher in their chosen field.
Guy like this, with pen, paper & his observations, is likely perceived by TPTB as a WMD, himself.
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016ICYMI, Aghast In Japan. Dahr is a big fan of Robert’s.
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wili
/ August 22, 2016“Now, having spent the entire summer in Alaska, I’ve yet to have a conversation with national park rangers, glaciologists or simply avid outdoors-people that has not included a story of disbelief, amazement and often shock over the impacts of anthropogenic climate disruption (ACD) across their beloved state.” One wonders why, then, that state is still one of the dwindling number considered to be still solidly in denialist Drumpf’s camp. Ideologies, apparently, die hard, even directly in the face of overwhelming evidence!
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coloradobob
/ August 22, 20162 things about narrow sites.
Go read Dc, Master’s site . A nasty fight over something that may never happen.
Go read Neven’s site. A reasoned fight over something that may never happen.
This is the way of the world.
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coloradobob
/ August 22, 2016This game will not be “one” by reason , Forget that it will be won By giuts.
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coloradobob
/ August 22, 2016This is why morons love the flying dumpster fire/
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coloradobob
/ August 22, 2016Bill H / August 22, 2016
Alexander, I agree. Hope is over-rated, maybe thanks to Saint Paul (Faith, hope, love). I’d question whether it’s a virtue at all.
Let’s to go back to , Vietnam this jackass loves the largest bombing in the history of man..
What did we gain ?
Zip.
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Alexander Ač
/ August 26, 2016CB, absolutely, and 2nd happy sister to hope is optimism.
http://thesmartset.com/our-greatest-enemy-optimism/
best,
Alex
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coloradobob
/ August 22, 2016The tipping point in Vieitnam –
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coloradobob
/ August 22, 2016The tipping point in Vietnam –
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/308fa20343255272ccc86f5c9e25fa2003f6bddd/0_0_3600_2623/3600.jpg?w=720&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=ed4c1eba582007e2a3122293d90b0638
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Andy_in_SD
/ August 22, 2016Spoke with my parents in central Europe today via skype. Some anecdotal observations by them.
They talked a lot about weird storms that would materialize out of nowhere and dump huge amounts of rain suddenly. I explained rain bombs and increased moisture retention due to increases in temperature. I also let them know this is a world wide situation.
They talked about sudden hail storms, combined with the rain bombs destroying the fruit crops this year. Their trees have very little.
They also mentioned that this year weird flies appeared, in abundance. These flies are chewing through what fruit there is, invasive species?
All in all, that area is suffering the same fate as elsewhere.
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coloradobob
/ August 22, 2016We dropped more bombs than all of World War 2 on Vietnam, one can not bomb people into agreeing with you.
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coloradobob
/ August 22, 2016Mr. Trump is a flying dumpsterfire.
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coloradobob
/ August 22, 2016LikeLike
Aghast In Japan
/ August 22, 2016Often think of Gordon Gecko when Trump’s name surfaces. Which one is more real? Assuming he’ll back out(previously arranged) at the last moment. Such underhanded deals buy his little empire another decade, or so? Let those casinos & hotels keep the profits rolling.
Can’t discuss these matters, as if we have great options or alternatives. What if gov’ts are sure & certain that things are worse than any of us truly understand? War & resource-grubbing likely supersede consideration they might have otherwise held for the hoi polloi.
Is our very nature is the enemy of nature?
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Aghast In Japan
/ August 22, 2016**should read: Is our very nature itself, the enemy of nature?**
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seal in the Selkirks
/ August 22, 2016Was coming through Spokane Valley heading back up here to the mountains and saw a plume of smoke coming off the top of Beacon Hill in Spokane as I stopped at the traffic light left turn at Trent and Argonne. Huge plume blowing in the 30+mph winds. Turned left and was two blocks before the first house exploded in a huge black mushroom cloud. By the time I got to Freya to turn right and head north towards the freeway extension a couple miles up I’d seen at least three or four houses blow up in the forest-burning smoke cloud.
Very densely populated treed area with a country club/golf course and houses everywhere. And houses were blowing up like video of US bombs raining on Syria.
By the time I crossed Frances Av and stopped on the on ramp I’d seen 10(?) at least blow, and the entire top of the hill was fully involved. This in ten minutes of driving city streets to the freeway. People were pulling up to watch, we were about 2 miles n/w and 1000 feet lower, and the SUV behind me that had a radio crackling so I walked over and he happened to be a wildlands firefighter like my oldest stepdaughter and her husband. Every huge black mushroom cloud he’d say “that’s another structure” and it was one after another. The fire was so big that it was going against the wind downhill to the south and west back towards the city neighborhoods along with rolling way over east a couple of miles already towards the also-heavily populated Argonne area; and down the hill east into the Bigalow Gulch Rd. area. All heavily treed and dry as dust.
By the time I got back in the 2nd hand’s big van the entire mountain was on fire and the radio was screaming for help trying to evacuate the thousands(?) of people trapped up there. The horses etc etc…no chance and no tv so I haven’t plugged into what has happened since. This was in less than 15-20 minutes.
I’m in smoke 40 miles north from a huge Evac Level III fire over the mountains from me in Davenport started by a farmer cutting grain on his harvester. There are still 30mph winds blowing hot air outside, and my house has been smelling of smoke since I got home.
Welcome to the new climate. This is scary again. Just like last year in this forest.
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016Serious situation there, Seal.
Sounds like you should be ready to ‘jump into the black’.
Take care.
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016– waDNR_fire Verified account @waDNR_fire 4h4 hours ago
#WaWILDFIRE update: Multiple partners making good progress on #WellesleyFire north of Spokane (note #BeaconHillFire name not being used now)
– Anon_V4Life @idrobinhood 5h5 hours ago
Get your bug out bag prepared for any evacuation orders. #BEACONHILLFIRE
If ash is falling in your area wear a mask to breathe. #Spokane
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016– Lincoln County seems to have a few fires burning.
waDNR_fire Verified account @waDNR_fire 4h4 hours ago
#WaWildfire Update: #DeepNorthFire, near Deep Lake in Lincoln County, 250 acres, in heavy timber with structures threatened.
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016The NW Fire Blog @nwfireblog 4h4 hours ago
#WelleslyFire – (aka Beacon Hill/Baldy) – Fire Info
– Start 8/21/2016
– Spokane County, Wa
– Level 3 evacuations
– Type 3 ordered
1906 Hrs
#HartFire – Spokane County Washington 2/2 – Near SR 25 – Dispatched @ 1442 hours – 1000 ac (unconfirmed) 1904 Hours PDT
#HartFire – Spokane County, Washington – Start 8/21/2016 – Structures lost – Level 3 Evacs – 60 homes under threat – Lincoln Co
https://thenwfireblog.com/2016/08/21/breaking-sr260fire-washington-aug-21-2016/
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Andy_in_SD
/ August 22, 2016Be safe seal!
I remember fires growing up in BC, but they were not in populated areas. That must have been sensory overload.
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44 south
/ August 22, 2016Sat down at the end of the day to listen to “the panel”, a discussion of current affairs. Three people, a leading broadcaster, a leading political analyst and a very bright author and columnist.
The analyst remarks on the weird winter that has lasted “5 minutes” and wonders what other gardeners make of it.
The author is silent, the host says “we will have to look into it”!!!
Not one damn word on climate or any sense of urgency to deal with it, and these are intelligent people.
Face it folks, there is not a snowballs chance in hell that we are going to deal with this predicament.
Find what you love to do, and do it NOW.
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Aghast In Japan
/ August 22, 2016Heard ‘dem ostriches are good eatin’…:^)
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marcyincny
/ August 22, 2016I would suggest also taking a measure of the time left to witness the wonders of the biosphere before they’re gone…
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Mulga Mumblebrain
/ August 29, 201644south, forty years of total Rightwing dominance in the West, particularly in the Anglosphere, has seen just about every same, decent, rational voice purged from politics and the MSM. Here in Australia, anthropogenic climate destabilisation is either simply ignored, or still ferociously and totally denied. We just had an ‘election’ where the environmental crises were totally ignored, although the more Right of our Rightwing parties made much of their detestation of Greens of any sort, and our ‘Green’ Party’s vote fell. We, like New Zealand, have a multi-millionaire parasite as Prime Miniature, but, unlike Key, he’s just a front-man for the fanatic Rightists who control the ruling Party. He had to promise, when taking over as PM, NOT to do anything about climate destabilisation. Morons with a death-wish for their own children. Do humans come any viler?
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016LikeLike
PlazaRed
/ August 22, 2016Just an obscure thought about those deep floods in Louisiana here on a warm, windy, sunny morning.
Photos show houses with water up to roof level. This land must be very flat for a long way and putting 10 foot or more of water on top of it will be an enormous amount of weight.
Every square meter or a bit more than a square yard will have 3 tonnes, (tons) of water on it if the water is 3 meters deep, so that’s 3 million tonnes per square kilometre. about 8 million tons per square mile.
This amount of weight may cause some permanent damage to the lands surface and will also force a lot of water into the land itself.
When this dry’s out land surface distortion may have occurred, causing possible problems to homes and infrastructure, leading to cracking and uneven surfaces.
Although this may be minor from the planets point of view, it may create a lot of problems for humans structures and roads.
Nasty storms still raging over the North Pole area.
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Andy_in_SD
/ August 22, 2016Very interesting thought, especially as the soil is not very solid / stable. It would be interesting if that accelerates subsistence.
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Suzanne
/ August 22, 2016Climate Change will mean the end of national parks as we now them”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/22/climate-change-national-parks-threat
Quote:
After a century of shooing away hunters, tending to trails and helping visitors enjoy the wonder of the natural world, the guardians of America’s most treasured places have been handed an almost unimaginable new job – slowing the all-out assault climate change is waging against national parks across the nation.
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June
/ August 22, 2016As dt would point out, I don’t think there’s any “may” about it.
With Warming, Western Fires May Sicken More People
Researchers like Anderson have taken to using the term “smoke wave” to describe the type of multiday impacts from wildfire pollution that were experienced this month in the Victor Valley. The valley contains hundreds of thousands of residents as well as the thoroughfare linking Las Vegas with Los Angeles.
Anderson and scientists from Yale and Harvard calculated that 82 million residents of the West will experience smoke waves that are two days or longer during a six-year period beginning in the late 2040s. That’s a 44 percent increase from a six-year period last decade.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/western-fires-may-sicken-more-people-20621
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016“With Warming, Western Fires May Sicken More People”
Count on it. Another respiratory assault.
Thanks for the link, June.
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016From Leaf to Freeze…
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016Seal’s turf:
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016Spokeman.com
Wildfire smoke fills Spokane Valley, making air unhealthy for some people – Mon, 22 Aug 2016 PST
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 22, 2016WILDFIRE UPDATE: #HartFire: 6000 acres #YaleRoadFire: 4000 acres #WellesleyFire: 250 acres #DeepNorthFire: 600 acres
Cynthia Johnson @KHQcjohnson 5m5 minutes ago
Downed tree in Valley Chapel Rd after thousands of acres burn in #YaleRoadfire @KHQLocalNews
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016Japan Typhoon update;
Met Office Verified account @metoffice 9h9 hours ago
…. typhoon #Mindulle, which has brought 60-70mph winds and 291mm of rain recorded at Oshima, Japan in 18hrs.
###
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 22, 2016Typhoon related:
Rainfall-enhanced blooming in typhoon wakes
Abstract
Strong phytoplankton blooming in tropical-cyclone (TC) wakes over the oligotrophic oceans potentially contributes to long-term changes in global biogeochemical cycles. Yet blooming has traditionally been discussed using anecdotal events and its biophysical mechanics remain poorly understood. Here we identify dominant blooming patterns using 16 years of ocean-color data in the wakes of 141 typhoons in western North Pacific. We observe right-side asymmetric blooming shortly after the storms, attributed previously to sub-mesoscale re-stratification, but thereafter a left-side asymmetry which coincides with the left-side preference in rainfall due to the large-scale wind shear. Biophysical model experiments and observations demonstrate that heavier rainfall freshens the near-surface water, leading to stronger stratification, decreased turbulence and enhanced blooming. Our results suggest that rainfall plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in TC-induced blooming, with potentially important implications for global biogeochemical cycles especially in view of the recent and projected increases in TC-intensity that harbingers stronger mixing and heavier rain under the storm.
http://www.nature.com/articles/srep31310
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016LikeLike
Edward
/ August 22, 2016Here is another article on thinning arctic sea ice.
“Arctic Death Rattle”
http://dissidentvoice.org/2016/08/arctic-death-rattle/
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Cate
/ August 22, 2016Monday, Aug 22: according to the Crystal Cruises website, Serenity has now rounded the Bering Land Bridge National Park and is into the Chukchi, so I suppose we can say she’s now officially in the Arctic Ocean and could encounter ice at any time. Not that there’s much around in that area at the moment, but folks in Barrow were reporting drift ice a day or so ago as the storms in the high North continue to generate wave action. From now until she gets into the Canadian Arctic Archipelago at Victoria Island on Aug 27, Serenity will be sailing a rather exposed coastline with thousands of km of ocean to port, all the way to the Siberian coast.
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seal in the Selkirks
/ August 22, 2016Fires are west of me, I’m just under smoke and not in danger. Yet. Damn is it dry here, forest is tinder at this point again like last year.
The Beacon Hill fire I watch start and then roar in 15 minutes yesterday is 40 miles south. I just happened to be within a mile of it when it lit off…and it triggered some anxiety because of the Carpenter Rd Fire last August that had me under Evac II, within 4 miles and a predicted 50mph winds due that night directly upwind from my property (very glad the weather service was wrong about that or I would have been burned out no doubt) while friends of mine across the valley went into Level III. Brushing burning embers falling from the sky, in swim goggles and mask, dogs getting hair singed on their backs…yeah, not a good few days at all.
The fire yesterday brought all the emotions I had then to the forefront of my consciousness. Had a hard time sleeping last night with the house full of smoke from the fires to the west. Bad dreams.
This popped up today, link & three cuts below from article:
Arctic Death Rattle
by Robert Hunziker
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/08/22/arctic-death-rattle/
Leading climate scientists are not willing to honestly expose their greatest fears, as discovered by Amy Goodman of Democracy Now! whilst at COP21 in Paris this past December, interviewing one of the world’s leading climate scientists, Kevin Anderson (University of Manchester) of Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research/UK who said: “So far we simply have not been prepared to accept the revolutionary implications of our own findings, and even when we do we are reluctant to voice such thoughts openly… many are ultimately choosing to censor their own research.”
***
Professor Peter Wadhams (University of Cambridge) has a new book due for release September 1st, 2016 A Farewell to Ice, A Report from the Arctic (Publ. Allen Lane). According to Vidal’s Guardian article, Wadhams’ book offers a new slant on the climate change controversy: “Because Peter Wadhams says what other scientists will not, he has been slandered, attacked and vilified by denialists and politicians who have advised caution or no-action.”
***
Natalia Shakhova, head of the Russia-U.S. Methane Study at International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska believes it is possible that a 50-gigaton (Gt) burp of methane erupts along the shallow waters (50-100 m) of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, thereby actuating a fierce self-reinforcing feedback process leading to runaway global warming (5Gt of CH4 is currently in the atmosphere). In turn, life on Earth hits a thud!
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cushngtree
/ August 22, 2016And this:
As of August 17th U.S. Naval Research Lab measurements of Arctic sea ice over a 30-day period “shows that the multi-year sea ice has now virtually disappeared,” Storms over Arctic Ocean, Arctic News, August 19, 2016. This means the Arctic has lost its infrastructure. It’s gone.
Multi-year ice GONE! unfathomable….
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miles h
/ August 22, 2016truly disastrous news.
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016– Union of Concerned Scientists
Flooding, Extreme Weather, and Record Temperatures: How Global Warming Puts it All Together
Louisiana, August 2016: “I’m going home to see if I have a home”.
Ellicot City, Maryland, July 2016: “Oh my god. There’s people in the water”.
West Virginia, June 2016: “23 dead, thousands homeless after devastating flood”.
What do these events (and 5 more since April 2015) have in common? They were all considered very low probability, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center created maps of annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) for all of them. AEP is the probability of exceeding a given amount of rainfall for a given duration at least once in any year at a given location. It is an indicator of the rarity of rainfall. These maps are created for significant storm events that typically have AEPs of less than 0.2% (i.e, exceed 500-year average recurrence interval amounts). For Louisiana, the probability analyzed was for the worst case 48-hour rainfall. For Ellicott City, it was for the worst case 3-hour rainfall. And for West Virginia, the June 23-24 event became a map for the worst case 24-hour rainfall.
In other words, just in the past 17 months, 8 rain events that are considered very low probability (i.e., less than 0.2%) occurred. Three happened in the past 3 months. Flooding like this should happen very rarely – there are AEP maps for only 18 more events, one of which was in 1913, all others having occurred since 2010. As our hearts go out to the families affected by the flooding, we may be asking; is this a series of unfortunate events? Certainly. The sheer loss of life and property is staggering, and heartbreaking. Totally unexpected? Unfortunately, the answer is hardly.
http://blog.ucsusa.org/astrid-caldas/flooding-extreme-weather-and-record-temperatures-how-global-warming-puts-it-all-together
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 22, 2016Let’s see if my words to the Gov. show up on this retweet:
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016They did.
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 22, 2016LikeLike
Ed-M
/ August 22, 2016In case noone else posted this interview with Peter Wadhams with the Guardian, in it he predicts that the Arctic will be free of ice for the first time next year or the year after.
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 22, 2016LikeLike
miles h
/ August 22, 2016i’m interested to know peoples thoughts on this…. apropos of several items in this section, broadly ‘what are we doing as individuals to change our lives’…. how many people here still eat meat? …the meat and dairy industry contributes greatly to warming – some say around 30% of greenhouse gases – other not-unreasonable ways of counting it say over 50% of global GHGE emissions are from the meat and dairy industry.
at any rate, however you count it, and whatever sets of figures you use, it’s always MUCH more than your car, your domestic heating and energy use, your flying holidays…possibly more than all those added together!… so what you doing about it!?
its also one of the few cost-free changes you can make to your lifestyle and carbon footprint overnight. and a very dramatic change at that.
other benefits are on land use, habitat destruction, deforestation, water use
…. thoughts anyone?…..
to my mind this is a very major issue, and anyone serious about making changes to their lifestyles has to take meat and dairy consumption into account.
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016Thanks, miles h. We’ve been aware of meat’s impact — and have been educating and promoting its reduction ASAP.
It is a major issue.
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016Anyone interested in a sea ice webinar see:
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 22, 2016– Via climatehawk1:
– Photo: Trump off loading toy ‘Play-Doh’.
– I think he found something to match his moral and intellectual aptitude.
‘It turns out Donald Trump’s attempt at using the Louisiana flooding as a campaign photo op is getting worse for him by the minute. The original optics were bad enough when he showed up and spent less than a minute unloading some Play-Doh from a truck before leaving. Then local authorities disputed his claim that the Play-Doh truck was even donated by him. And after he claimed that he had made a $100,000 donation but reporters couldn’t track it down, he’s now admitting the donation went to a local anti-gay hate group.’
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Cate
/ August 22, 2016Although some of the seasoned ice-watchers over at the ASIF may take issue with this, The Guardian has weighed in and is declaring “summer Arctic sea ice at its lowest since records began.” Extent, area. volume, and rate of decline are all hitting record levels, according to this report.
Still, look how the implications are couched in cautionary language: “This dramatic change may be causing ripple effects throughout the Earth’s climate system. For example, some research has suggested a possible connection between the Arctic sea ice decline and the intensity of California’s recent record drought (although the connection is not definitive). Those record drought conditions in turn contributed to the intense wildfires currently raging across California. Other research has suggested possible connections between disappearing Arctic sea ice and extreme weather events, but again, these connections aren’t yet definitive.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/aug/22/historical-documents-reveal-arctic-sea-ice-is-disappearing-at-record-speed
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Mulga Mumblebrain
/ August 29, 2016Yes, Cate, ‘soft’ denialists like the Guardian will STILL be couching the news in ‘cautionary’, ie denialist, language when the planet is alight. ‘Some people speculate that the fifty gigaton eruption of methane from the East Siberian Sea may have something to do with climate change, but others dispute it, saying it is just natural variability and God’s Will’. The Guardian is the least morally insane of the UK rags, but only in the familiar narrow range of acceptable opinion, where it has a role like Bernie Sanders in Democratic Party politics, to shepherd the Left dissidents away from facing reality and raking real action. The rest of the UK MSM simply deny everything, still, and ever will.
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Cate
/ August 22, 2016New methane study out today from Uni of Alaska at Fairbanks.
http://news.uaf.edu/methane_permafrost_aug2016/
“The project, led by UAF researcher Katey Walter Anthony, studied lakes in Alaska, Canada, Sweden and Siberia where permafrost thaw surrounding lakes led to lake shoreline expansion during the past 60 years. Using historical aerial photo analysis, soil and methane sampling, and radiocarbon dating, the project quantified for the first time the strength of the present-day permafrost carbon feedback to climate warming. Although a large permafrost carbon emission is expected to occur imminently, the results of this study show nearly no sign that it has begun….
“The new study found the rate of old carbon released during the past 60 years to be relatively small. Model projections conducted by other studies expect much higher carbon release rates — from 100 to 900 times greater — for its release during the upcoming 90 years. This suggests that current rates are still well below what may lay ahead in the future of a warmer Arctic.”
Maybe a little good news, a little breathing room….? 🙂
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016The jet stream
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016… including Laughlin Air Force Base
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dtlange
/ August 22, 2016Riya Mukherjee @riyalovezu 7h7 hours ago
There is flood situation in Bakura, W Midnapore, Purulia district also why is MSM conveniently not reporting, media bias towards E. India
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Jay M
/ August 23, 2016incredible visual of dam spill
I recall that Cali in the past has had problems moving the gates
An atmospheric river on the Pacific coast of NA might expose a creaky infrastructure
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Jay M
/ August 23, 2016http://articles.latimes.com/1995-07-18/news/mn-25161_1_american-river-parkway
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016Thanks:
‘ AP July18, 1995
FOLSOM, Calif. — A huge gate at Folsom Dam broke open Monday, spilling enough water each second to supply a family of five for a year. The break forced evacuation of boaters, hikers and anglers along the American River, but posed no immediate danger to communities downstream.
Dam operators said they may not be able to stop the water roaring out of the broken gate for up to a week, until the water level drops 40 feet to the top of the spillway.
The buckled gate will drain nearly half the water from the reservoir, which holds about 1 million acre-feet that is used for drinking water, agriculture and maintaining wildlife.
The water pouring into the American River at 40,000 cubic feet per second made the river and paved trails along its banks hazardous. The National Weather Service issued a flash-flood warning to clear the downstream area…’
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016LikeLike
Jay M
/ August 23, 2016will reverse the late 19th century fabrication of underwater lots as the shallow areas were expected to be filled
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redskylite
/ August 23, 2016I like/share the sentiments in DW’s latest ice blog and a very fair evaluation of Peter Wadhams projections:
Of course there are those in the scientific world who say he exaggerates, and are less willing to put a date on just when we will see an ice-free Arctic. That is, of course, in itself, also a matter of definition.
http://blogs.dw.com/ice/?p=17493
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 23, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 23, 2016Main link:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=global2×pan=24hrs
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016Caught my eye — In this view the Sea of Okhotsk & Kamchatka Pen.seems to be getting quite a bit of:
‘PWAT: Precipitable Water – measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over .. – NWS glossary.
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redskylite
/ August 23, 2016Good to read that the Canadian Medical Association is being urged to step on on the issue of Climate Change . . . . . . .
Climate change a significant threat to public health, CMA members hear
Climate change is the “greatest global health threat of the 21st century,” so it is incumbent that physicians take a stand to protect their patients, one of the world’s leading human-rights advocates says.
“Responding to climate change is not just a scientific or technological issue,” James Orbinski, a founding member of both Médecins sans frontières (Doctors Without Borders) and Dignitas International, told the general council of the Canadian Medical Association in Vancouver on Monday.
“It’s time for the CMA to step up and step out, to be genuinely courageous on climate change,” he said.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/climate-change-a-significant-threat-to-public-health-cma-members-hear/article31501589/
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016Great news. It’s about time too. Let’s see how others respond.
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 23, 2016SB California: Impressive view of smoke rising and circulating:
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todaysguestis
/ August 23, 2016Study measures methane release from Arctic permafrost
The new study found the rate of old carbon released during the past 60 years to be relatively small. Model projections conducted by other studies expect much higher carbon release rates — from 100 to 900 times greater — for its release during the upcoming 90 years. This suggests that current rates are still well below what may lay ahead in the future of a warmer Arctic.
http://news.uaf.edu/methane_permafrost_aug2016/
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Alexander Ač
/ August 23, 2016We suggest that thawing permafrost, due to increasing summer insolation in the northern hemisphere, is the main source of CO2 rise between 17,500 and 15,000 years ago, a period sometimes referred to as the Mystery Interval. In simulations of future warming we find that the permafrost carbon feedback increases global mean temperature by 10–40% relative to simulations without this feedback, with the magnitude of the increase dependent on the evolution of anthropogenic carbon emissions.
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2793.html
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Suzanne
/ August 23, 2016Posted last night at the Washington Post:
“A widening 80 mile crack is threatening one of Antarctica’s biggest ice shelves”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-campaign-rent_us_57bba424e4b03d51368a82b9
Quote:
The rift had grown another 22 kilometers (13.67 miles) since it was last observed in March 2016, and has widened to about 350 meters, report researchers from Project MIDAS, a British Antarctic Survey funded collaboration of researchers from Swansea and Aberystwyth Universities in Wales and other institutions. The full length of the rift is now 130 km, or over 80 miles.
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Suzanne
/ August 23, 2016Sorry…It was posted yesterday morning, so it may have been posted here earlier and I just missed it.
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Cate
/ August 23, 2016Crystal Serenity, the ship with the stripper’s name, has rounded Point Hope, Alaska. 69 degrees N.
Enter the great Stan Rogers.
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Griffin
/ August 23, 2016Yep, when she got up to the pole, we all knew that the night was over.
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Bill h
/ August 23, 2016Major fall in Arc tic sea ice VOLUME since Aug 15th
I estimate above 10% of the total ice volume was lost.
Cate noted the Guardian’s claim of record low ice levels. This looks dubious, though there are various metrics one can use to make such a claim.
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016LikeLike
Cate
/ August 23, 2016Yep—-and I thought the Guardian piece was confused and unclear about the details of exactly what was at record lows, which is why I thought it would be interesting to folks here as well as over at ASIF I’s always instructive, I think, to see how the science gets massaged or garbled, and whether accidentally or on purpose, on its way from the scientist to the journalist..
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016I thought Bob might like this one I stumbled across:
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coloradobob
/ August 23, 2016Amen.
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016– S. & Central Calif. wildfire fuel loads.
Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory Southern California
GACC
August 22, 2016
Difference From Normal Conditions:
Live fuel moisture values among the native brush have reached levels that are more typical of late September and early October. Dead fuel moisture in the affected areas is either around the 97th percentile, or is at record levels for this time of year. While there may be periods of slight reprieve from the recent hot and dry weather, no significant improvement in fuel conditions is in sight. In addition, the absence of summertime convection across the mountain areas has left these areas especially dry due to the lack of increased humidity and localized rainfall.
http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/fuels_fire-danger/SO_Fuels_and_Fire_Behavior_Advisory_08222016.pdf
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 23, 2016– Climate change – tools
CalWater Field Studies Designed to Quantify the Roles of Atmospheric Rivers and Aerosols in Modulating U.S. West Coast Precipitation in a Changing Climate
Abstract
The variability of precipitation and water supply along the U.S. West Coast creates major challenges to the region’s economy and environment, as evidenced by the recent California drought. This variability is strongly influenced by atmospheric rivers (ARs), which deliver much of the precipitation along the U.S. West Coast and can cause flooding, and by aerosols (from local sources and transported from remote continents and oceans) that modulate clouds and precipitation. A better understanding of these processes is needed to reduce uncertainties in weather predictions and climate projections of droughts and floods, both now and under changing climate conditions.
To address these gaps, a group of meteorologists, hydrologists, climate scientists, atmospheric chemists, and oceanographers have created an interdisciplinary research effort, with support from multiple agencies…
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00043.1
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016Fire & Watersheds So Cal
– noozhawk.com/article/watershed_protection_priority_rey_fire
Watershed Protection a Priority as Rey Fire Burns Deep Into Santa Barbara Backcountry
Blaze had blackened 29,664 acres and was 30-percent contained Tuesday morning; flames moving north and east toward the Dick Smith Wilderness, Mono Creek, and the Zaca Fire burn area
…
A priority for crews in the coming days is minimizing fire impacts to the Santa Ynez watershed, including Gibraltar and Lake Cachuma downstream, which supplies 80 percent of the water to the South Coast, and is also a source for the Santa Ynez and Lompoc valleys, according to public information officer Rich Griguoli.
The Santa Cruz Creek and Santa Ynez watersheds, which are critical water sources for southern Santa Barbara County, are threatened by the blaze.
“During the (2007) Zaca Fire, there was a lot of sediment going into the lake from run-off, and that harms the water,” Griguoli said. “It does long-term damage. This is a priority we are trying to address, and we understand that it is crucial.
John Palminteri @KEYTNC3JohnP 3h3 hours ago
REY FIRE burns near Gibraltar Reservoir but away from populated areas in Santa Barbara Co.
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016Ps As of 0822 Gibraltar was at 22% capacity and Lake Cachuma at 8%.
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016LikeLike
Cate
/ August 23, 2016Climate change discourse in MSM is always interesting:
Stephen Sackur of BBC “Hardtalk” shows how to interview politicians on meeting Paris targets—in this case, the hapless Energy Minister of Alberta, whom he backs into a corner and proceeds to rip apart. When they prevaricate, you dissect them and you extract the truth with questioning of surgical aggression and skill.
CBC, watch and learn.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0452tq5
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JPL
/ August 23, 2016Washington State Gov. Inslee is up for reelection soon. While no elected official is perfect, I must say it’s been refreshing having a governor that is paying attention on the climate front, is not afraid to see reality as it is and will state the obvious…
From: http://komonews.com/news/local/eastern-wash-wildfires-keep-growing-gov-inslee-heads-to-area
“Our forests and wild lands are under attack from climate change,” Inslee said
Inslee visited a fire command center on the Spokane County Fairgrounds on Tuesday morning, and blamed tree diseases and rising temperatures caused by climate change for the state’s recent spate of record wildfire seasons.
Inslee says diseased trees and climate change for creating “explosive conditions” in forests.
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miles h
/ August 23, 2016larsen c huge calving…. http://mashable.com/2016/08/22/crack-larsen-c-ice-shelf-antarctica/#QhUI2ticg8q1
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coloradobob
/ August 23, 2016This Chart Shows Why Insurers Are Climate-Change Believers
http://fortune.com/2016/08/23/munich-re-disaster-insurance/
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coloradobob
/ August 23, 2016Thousands Of Dead Fish Wash Into New Jersey Marina
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/08/23/dead-fish-new-jersey-marina/
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 23, 2016Dead fish up and down the creek.
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Griffin
/ August 24, 2016“Chased in there by bluefish or skates.”
Uh-huh. Sure.
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Andy_in_SD
/ August 24, 2016Yup, sounds like BS. Perhaps the drop in Arctic Ice will be attributed to Narwhals taking ice to make margaritas.
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016– Lots of UK weather action — also cyclonic winds offshore near Iceland
WunderBlog 0823
6 Die as Storms Pound British Coast, Stir Up Dangerous Rip Currents
Unusual Weather for This Time of Year
According to weather.com meteorologist Tom Moore, this storm was a bit unusual for August.
“This type of storm generally occurs from late September to November,” Moore said. “There was an exaggerated jet stream pattern with a deep trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere west of the U.K. along with a fast-moving jet stream.
-Surfers wait in the sea as large waves crash onto rocks near Padstow, North Cornwall, as a storm hits the Cornish coastline. Stormy weather in Cornwall, Britain on 20 Aug 2016.
(Rex Features via AP Images)
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016https://www.windyty.com/?53.495,-31.177,3
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Cate
/ August 24, 2016Very sad to hear about the deaths in the UK. We saw the effects of this huge low here in the NW Atlantic too, on the NE coast of Newfoundland: glorious summer day, cloudless skies and no wind, but what the old-timers call a “big sea on”. Very dangerous to be on an exposed shore—-even if you kept to the dry rocks, you’d never know one of these gigantic rollers was coming in because there is no wave action, no breaking waves on the sea anywhere, just the entire surface of the sea welling up and up and up.
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coloradobob
/ August 23, 2016Puffin chicks in Gulf of Maine’s largest colony starve to death at record rate
A drop in the food supply this summer, possibly tied to warmer Gulf of Maine waters, leads to the worst survival rate ever tracked on Machias Seal Island.
http://www.pressherald.com/2016/08/23/puffin-chicks-starve-to-death-in-high-numbers-at-largest-colony-off-maine/
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coloradobob
/ August 23, 2016Usually, researchers are able to put identification bands on the chicks in late July or early August, before they leave their burrows. “But we couldn’t this year because the chicks’ legs were too small to hold a band,” Diamond said. “We have never seen fledgling weights like this before.”
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016Terrible…
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Mulga Mumblebrain
/ August 29, 2016Puffin chicks are ‘pufflings’. Well, that’s the name that the upright, uptight, upstart apes who are wiping them out, give them, in one of their lingoes.
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umbrios27
/ August 23, 2016To add to the list of mass deaths of animals caused by climate change. Worst drought in 19 years turns Chaco River in a cemitery of caymans (article in portuguese, impressive photos and video): http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/ambiente/2016/08/1806069-seca-transforma-rio-em-cemiterio-de-jacares-no-paraguai-veja-video.shtml
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016July 22
Wildlife Dying En Masse as South American River Runs Dry
The Pilcomayo River in Paraguay is littered with dead caiman and fish carcasses as the government scrambles to find a solution.
Vultures rest in the tree’s upper branches, their black bodies in stark contrast to the blanched wood beneath their feet. Below them, caimans and capybaras crawl in sucking mud through the Agropil lagoon, seeking water that is unlikely to arrive for many months. The river has dried up, and there is nowhere for them to go.
The lagoon, located in the western Paraguayan province of Boquerón, is just one of many stretches of the Pilcomayo River suffering an extensive die-off of caiman, fish, and other river creatures. There have not been any official estimates from the Ministry of the Environment, but Roque González Vera, a journalist for ABC Color in Paraguay, reports utter devastation in some places: Up to 98 percent of caimans (Caiman yacare) are suspected dead, and 80 percent of the capybara (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) population has died.
Paraguay is in the midst of an ecological crisis.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/07/pilcomayo-river-paraguay-caiman-capybara-fish-drought-death-water/
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umbrios27
/ August 24, 2016Thanks for finding an article in English, Dtlange!
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dtlange
/ August 25, 2016You are very welcome, umbrios27. De nada.
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dtlange
/ August 23, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 23, 2016LikeLike
mlparrish
/ August 24, 2016The suppression of Antarctic bottom water formation by melting ice shelves in Prydz Bay
G. D. Williams. Nature Communications 7, Article number: 12577 doi:10.1038/ncomms12577 Published 23 August 2016
Abstract
Abstract• Introduction• Results• Discussion• Methods• Additional information• References• Acknowledgements• Author information• Supplementary information
A fourth production region for the globally important Antarctic bottom water has been attributed to dense shelf water formation in the Cape Darnley Polynya, adjoining Prydz Bay in East Antarctica. Here we show new observations from CTD-instrumented elephant seals in 2011–2013 that provide the first complete assessment of dense shelf water formation in Prydz Bay. After a complex evolution involving opposing contributions from three polynyas (positive) and two ice shelves (negative), dense shelf water (salinity 34.65–34.7) is exported through Prydz Channel. This provides a distinct, relatively fresh contribution to Cape Darnley bottom water. Elsewhere, dense water formation is hindered by the freshwater input from the Amery and West Ice Shelves into the Prydz Bay Gyre. This study highlights the susceptibility of Antarctic bottom water to increased freshwater input from the enhanced melting of ice shelves, and ultimately the potential collapse of Antarctic bottom water formation in a warming climate.
Full article available at http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160823/ncomms12577/full/ncomms12577.html
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wharf rat
/ August 24, 2016Central and northern Alberta rocked by extreme weather
“Roads are starting to wash away,” Wicklund said over Facebook. “It rained non-stop from two in the morning…fences are starting to fall over.”
http://globalnews.ca/news/2897337/emergency-alert-issued-after-torrential-rain-results-in-flooding-in-westlock-alta/
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016LikeLike
coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Hilo set rain records for the date Monday and today.
The National Weather Service said the 6.98 inches recorded at the airport so far today has already broken the old record of 3.59 inches set in 1982. On Monday, the 4.04 inches recorded broke the old record of 2.99 inches set in 1982.
http://www.staradvertiser.com/breaking-news/more-muggy-rainy-weather-hawaii-island-under-flood-watch/
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Andy_in_SD
/ August 24, 2016Giant, Deadly Ice Slide Baffles Researchers – Climate change could be to blame for Tibetan tragedy
One of the world’s largest documented ice avalanches is flummoxing researchers. But they suspect that glacier fluctuations caused by a changing climate—may be to blame.
About 100 million cubic metres of ice and rocks gushed down a narrow valley in Rutog county in the west of the Tibet Autonomous Region on July 17, killing nine herders and hundreds of sheep and yaks.
The debris covered nearly 10 square kilometres at a thickness of up to 30 metres, says Zong Jibiao, a glaciologist at the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research (ITPR) in Beijing, who completed a field investigation of the site last week.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/giant-deadly-ice-slide-baffles-researchers/
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Nasty.
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016‘ Preliminary analyses show that the Rutog avalanche was unusual because it started from a flat point at 5,200–6,200 metres above sea level rather than in steep terrain. The ice crashed down nearly one kilometre along the narrow gully and ran into the Aru Co lake, 6 kilometres away.
“The site of collapse is baffling … the Rutog avalanche initiated at quite a flat spot. It doesn’t make sense,” says Tian Lide, a glaciologist also at the ITPR, who runs a research station in Rutog.
Zong adds: “It went with such a force that the gully was widened out by the process.”
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Genomik
/ August 24, 2016I met a new person today at work. I mentioned climate change as I do alot these days and he said he agrees, it sucks. He went on to add he has a place in New York and one in Florida. His tires melt twice as fast on his car in florida vs NY, because its so hot! A set of tires would last 50k in NY, only 25K in Florida.
He said after it rains it steams its so hot.
It sucks, climate change is malforming Florida terribly. Just think the streets are twice as filled w rubber that all gets washed by rains and floods into everything. Like n rubber bath. Maybe the rubber helps algae grow faster.
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016‘His tires melt twice as fast on his car in florida vs NY, because its so hot! ‘
Absolutely zero surprise there.
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Omaha got creamed overnight, 90 mph winds , streets turned into rivers etc., etc., etc.
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 24, 2016USA West – Nevada
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016NWS La Crosse Verified account @NWSLaCrosse 2h2 hours ago
Flooding continues in northeast IA and southwest WI. Do not drive through flood waters! #iawx #wiwx
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016KWWL Verified account @KWWL 10m10 minutes ago
Major flooding at #Decorah along the Upper Iowa River. #kwwlwx #iawx
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016A Tiny Jellyfish Relative Just Shut Down Yellowstone River
The parasite has devastated the whitefish population and is now threatening the trout.
On August 12, Montana officials realized that the mountain whitefish of Yellowstone River were dying en masse. They sent corpses off for testing and got grave news in return: The fish had proliferative kidney disease—the work of a highly contagious parasite that kills between 20 and 100 percent of infected hosts. Tens of thousands of whitefish were already dead, and trout were starting to fall.
Humans can spread the parasite from one water source to another. So, on the morning of August 19, Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks closed a 183-mile stretch of the Yellowstone River, banning all fishing, swimming, floating, and boating. “We recognize that this decision will have a significant impact on many people,” said FWP Director Jeff Hagener in a press release. However, we must act to protect this public resource for present and future generations.”
http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/08/the-parasite-that-just-shut-down-a-montana-river-has-an-unbelievable-origin/496817/
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Solar Delivers Cheapest Electricity ‘Ever, Anywhere, By Any Technology’
Half the price of coal!
https://thinkprogress.org/solar-delivers-cheapest-electricity-ever-anywhere-by-any-technology-c2ef759ac33f#.5kp5tx1mg
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Been waiting for this –
Aqua/MODIS
2016/236
08/23/2016
17:55 UTC
Fires in South America
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Over 300 dead as floods force villagers into relief camps
At least 300 people have died in eastern and central part of the country and more than six million others have been affected by floods that have submerged villages, washed away crops, destroyed roads and disrupted power and phone lines, officials said on Tuesday.
Heavy monsoon rains have caused rivers, including the mighty Ganges and its tributaries, to burst their banks forcing people into relief camps in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttarakhand.
http://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/over-300-dead-as-floods-force-villagers-into-relief-camps/story/236467.html
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016A sat. view:
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Unwelcome Rains Will Put Stress on Lake Okeechobee’s Dike
By: Jeff Masters
A steadily organizing Invest 99L was bringing heavy rains and strong wind gusts to the northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday morning, and is an increasing threat to develop into a tropical storm. Even if 99L never develops into a tropical cyclone, it has the potential to dump a large amount of rain on a place that doesn’t need it—the catchment basin of Lake Okeechobee in Central Florida. The huge lake represents an important source of fresh water to South Florida, but also poses a grave danger. The 25 – 30′-tall, 143-mile long Herbert Hoover Dike surrounding the lake was built in the 1930s out of gravel, rock, limestone, sand, and shell using old engineering methods. The dike is tall enough that it is very unlikely to be overtopped by a storm surge from the waters inside the lake, but the dike is vulnerable to leaking and failure when heavy rains bring high water levels to the lake. Torrential rains of 7+ inches from a tropical storm or hurricane are capable of raising the lake level by over three feet in a few weeks; this occurred in 2008, when Tropical Storm Fay took a leisurely romp across Florida, and again in 2012, when Tropical Storm Isaac lumbered past. At a lake water elevation of 15.5’, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dumps water out of the lake as fast as it can in order to keep high stresses on the dike from causing a failure. The lake reached this level early in 2016, after unusually heavy winter rains. The Corps was forced to do emergency dumping for most of February, and dumping has continued into August—though at a slower rate.
Link
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016– Pretty good, we covered the subject here a short while ago.
– Dr. Masters fills in quite a bit.
– Figure 2. Aftermath of the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane, showing damage to a cluster of Everglades scientific work stations in Belle Glade. The hurricane killed 2,500 people, mostly near Belle Glade. Image credit: University of Florida, via the historicpalmbeach.com.
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Extreme Floods May Be the New Normal
Communities should plan defenses and emergency responses based on the climate of the future, not the past
Over the past year alone, catastrophic rain events characterized as once-in-500-year or even once-in-1,000-year events have flooded West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma, South Carolina and now Louisiana, sweeping in billions of dollars of property damage and deaths along with the high waters.
These extreme weather events are forcing many communities to confront what could signal a new climate change normal. Now many are asking themselves: Are they doing enough to plan for and to adapt to large rain events that climate scientists predict will become more frequent and more intense as global temperatures continue to rise?
The answer in many communities is no, it’s not enough.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/extreme-floods-may-be-the-new-normal/
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016Indeed they should: ‘Communities should plan defenses and emergency responses based on the climate of the future, not the past.’
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Louisiana Flood of 2016 resulted from ‘1,000-year’ rain in 2 days
The Louisiana Flood of 2016 was triggered by a complicated, slow-moving low-pressure weather system that dumped as much as two feet of rain on parts of East Baton Rouge, Livingston and St. Helena parishes in 48 hours. The record two-day rainfall in those areas had a 0.1 percent chance of occurring in any year, the equivalent of a “1,000-year rain”, according to the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, based at the Slidell office of the National Weather Service.
http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/08/louisiana_flood_of_2016_result.html
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016Using Blackouts to Map Flooded Areas
Satellite photos of southeast Louisiana show damage to the electric grid during the storm. The images were released by NASA at the request of the Federal Emergency Management Agency and are used to determine power outages in order to map impact zones. The first image shows a normal night, the second was taken the night of the flood.
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davidlwindt
/ August 24, 2016Sure does seem like the Wash. Post is on a roll vis a vis climate change:
“As sea levels rise, nearly 2 million U.S. homes could be under water by 2100
A six-foot rise in sea level would displace millions of people and result in hundreds of billions of dollars in losses, especially on the East Coast, according to real estate data firm Zillow.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/08/24/as-sea-levels-rise-23-states-could-see-nearly-1-9-million-homes-underwater/
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016This is How South Florida Ends
Since 1930, sea levels in South Florida have risen nearly a foot.
Hal Wanless, a geologist at the University of Miami who’s spent 50 years documenting the past 18,000 years of sea level changes in South Florida, thinks the highest government projections are too low. “The important thing we have learned from studying the past is that sea level rises in pulses,” he told me when I met him in his office on campus. These pulses, which have caused as much as thirty feet of sea level rise per century in the recent geologic past, are tied to periods of “rapid ice sheet disintegration” on Greenland and Antarctica.
Wanless believes we’re entering another such period now. And the evidence is certainly mounting. In the late 1980s, scientists were talking about how Greenland might start to melt due to global warming; by the mid 1990s it was already happening. Now, that melt is accelerating. A recent study in Geophysical Research Letters estimates that Greenland lost a trillion tons of ice between 2011 and 2014, contributing twice as much to global sea level rise as it did during the prior two decades.
Link
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Excellent article, one of the best I’ve read.
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davidlwindt
/ August 24, 2016And another from WaPo today:
“Human-caused climate change has been happening for a lot longer than we thought”
“The new study, just out on Wednesday in the journal Nature, suggests human-caused, or anthropogenic, climate change has been going on for decades longer than existing temperature records indicate. Using paleoclimate records from the past 500 years, the researchers show that sustained warming began to occur in both the tropical oceans and the Northern Hemisphere land masses as far back as the 1830s — and they’re saying industrial-era greenhouse gas emissions were the cause, even back then.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/08/24/human-caused-climate-change-has-been-happening-for-a-lot-longer-than-we-thought-scientists-say/?utm_term=.563ece001127
… might hafta re-think that 1880’s temperature ‘baseline’ …
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davidlwindt
/ August 24, 2016Nifty new video, too:
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todaysguestis
/ August 24, 2016Giant, Deadly Ice Slide Baffles Researchers
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/giant-deadly-ice-slide-baffles-researchers/
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016LikeLike
dtlange
/ August 24, 2016This is pretty good…
I noted the uptick that began in the early 1070s — the spring 1973 being the time I felt the climate had changed. It hit me like a ‘brick ‘– knocked me off stride. And made me more aware of my world.
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016From the following link by Bob.
“the speed at which the climate responds to even a small change in greenhouse gases appears to be quite fast,”.
– Maybe not the same time scale as In the above graph but I also note the 1940s fossil fuel, or unprecedented and massive carbon, mechanized world war episode with attendant fire/smoke — followed by the extreme explosion of the carbon/heat car/consumer culture of the 50s — 70s.
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Study: Man-made warming may have started decades earlier
WASHINGTON — Man-made global warming may have started a few decades earlier than scientists previously figured, a new study suggests.
Instead of the late 1800s, a slight almost imperceptible warming can now be tracked to around the 1850 in North America, Europe and Asia, according to a new study based on coral, microscopic organisms, ice cores, cave samples, tree rings and computer simulations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/study-man-made-warming-may-have-started-decades-earlier/2016/08/24/10107316-6a1d-11e6-91cb-ecb5418830e9_story.html
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016And that happened when heat-trapping gases from burning fossil fuels were tiny compared to now, which means “the speed at which the climate responds to even a small change in greenhouse gases appears to be quite fast,” said study lead author Nerilie Abram, a paleoclimate scientist at the Australian National University. The study is in Wednesday’s journal Nature.
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davidlwindt
/ August 24, 2016Some have suggested that humans started adding CO2 to the atmosphere around the time that agriculture was invented, thousands of years ago.
Here’s one such paper (behind a paywall, however, and maskedip mind tricks won’t work):
W. F. Ruddiman, “The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era Began Thousands of Years Ago”, Climate Change, 61, 261 (2003):
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000004577.17928.fa
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davidlwindt
/ August 24, 2016If anyone else wants to go off on this tangent with me, here’s an article that puts Ruddiman’s work in context:
http://www.humansandnature.org/william-ruddiman-and-the-ruddiman-hypothesis
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016Am unable to read as my WaPo free views are used up.
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davidlwindt
/ August 24, 2016Here’s a trick: http://www.maskedip.com/
(Looks like CB and I simultaneously posted the same WaPo link.)
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Cate
/ August 24, 2016dt, if I recall correctly, someone suggested that clearing cookies can help?
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DaveW
/ August 25, 2016Yup – just delete all WaPo cookies and you get a fresh start 🙂
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Jennifer
/ August 24, 2016I have also read that if you are using Chrome you can open an incognito window that is a loophole.
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016LikeLike
coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Raging Amazon forest fires threaten uncontacted indigenous tribe
Small groups of Guajajara Indians, the Awá’s neighbors in the Amazon, reportedly battled the blaze for days without the assistance of government agents until Brazil’s Environment Ministry launched a fire-fighting operation two weeks ago.
According to Survival International, nearly 50 percent of the forest cover in the territory was destroyed by forest fires started by loggers in late 2015, and the Environment Ministry has warned that the situation is “even worse this year.”
https://news.mongabay.com/2016/08/raging-amazon-forest-fires-threaten-uncontacted-indigenous-tribe/
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umbrios27
/ August 24, 2016This fire is the one I commented about in a previous post. It has been confirmed that it began as a criminal fire recently, but the perpetrators haven´t been identified yet. It was set in three different spots, circling the area most used by the Awás. This case should be treated as a genocide attempt (at least, I hope it doesn´t get worse than attempt, the fire is not yet controlled), but there has been almost no official response… it took 30 days (and social media uproar) for the beginning of the official fire-fighting operation. The Guajajara, who share the reservation with the Awá, were fighting the fire from the beginning.
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016umbrios27
I was hoping you’d see this , much appreciated for sharing your insights.
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016But going thru Google News I was able to read this one from WaPo:
How air pollution is causing the world’s ‘Third Pole’ to melt
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/08/24/how-air-pollution-is-causing-the-worlds-third-pole-to-melt/?utm_term=.6d8a7ad2f621
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miles h
/ August 24, 2016a chunk of ice the size of Delaware/ (size of Scotland for us Brits!) is beginning to fracture from the Larsen C ice shelf in Antarctica… about 10% of the entire shelf.
a deep crack has formed along the shelf and it is growing larger quite rapidly… http://mashable.com/2016/08/22/crack-larsen-c-ice-shelf-antarctica/#QhUI2ticg8q1
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Aghast In Japan
/ August 24, 2016Justa’ simple layman’s lament. Getting so tired of hearing..”Buntachunk, Nebraska was hit by a…
1 in 1000 yr flood,
1 in 500 yr flood…etc.
Let’s just sum it up as our big rock has been f*cking NAILED by 1 in 252,000,000 YEAR catastrophe. & we KNEW it was comin’, y’know?! We sorta STEPPED on lovely Mother Nature’s fingers as she clung to this here cliff.
Let’s try a spiel like that, attached to every sad, devastating weather & climate-related occurrence. Can’t hurt.
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016In 2010 i worked ass off to do this –
The Extreme Rain Events of 2010
This is just partial list of the extreme rain that fell in 2010 . If you know one, add it to this thread. All the reports listed here are from The National Weather Service, NOAA, and news reports.
The Swat Valley –
I never saw a number on just how bad the rainfall was there , until this story from the Guardian . ” It was raining so hard, you couldn’t see a man standing in front of you ” …………..
” In more than 60 hours of non-stop torrential rainfall, the floods washed all that away. The north-west normally receives 500mm (20in) of rain in the month of July; over one five-day period 5,000mm fell. “It was incredible,” said Sameenullah Afridi, a local United Nations official. ”
That’s 196.8 inches of rain , 16 feet .
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/oct/01/pakistan-floods-us-military
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016The main link –
http://coloradobob1.newsvine.com/_news/2010/11/21/5504169-the-extreme-rain-events-of-2010
Aghast In Japan / August 24, 2016
Justa’ simple layman’s lament. Getting so tired of hearing..”Buntachunk, Nebraska was hit by a…
Aghast In Japan ……….. I don’t rats fuzzy butt what wares you out . .
Science is about recording reports of numbers , and this data leads to patterns, and patterns lead to answers. By the way Japan is getting hit with Typhoon after typhoon, and we get zero first hand accounts from you.
Try being an observer , and stop being a ” simple layman “.
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Aghast In Japan
/ August 24, 2016Appreciate your words, Coloradobob. Have been reading them here for a few years. You’re passionate in your approach. One should pursue excellence(or rather, it’s attempt), as one sees it defined.
As many here have opined, very frustrated with the prevailing ostrich-denialist culture, aided & abbetted by a complicit media. We’re born into this deal, & who reads the small print?
We often post songs, & speak of wonderful scientific breakthroughs, which may buy ‘breathing-space’. Meanwhile, supposed world leaders drop bombs, like I used to hurl pine cone-grenades with buddies in the forested ravine, as a once-innocent youngin’. If they’re gonna squabble over that liquid black goo, set up a chess board, or something civilized…
I might tell you of observations. Perhaps good/bad news; old appreciated lyrics & scenes; lost vibes & instincts; fears & hopes; or even what the lasses here are sportin’ as the season’s change. Interpretation is all your own.
Nothing wrong with a little/lot of mystery. So I’ll continue pondering Van Morrison lyrics, as he sings about what we mostly discarded.
& as we often say in that big land up north..”have a good day, eh?”
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danabanana
/ August 25, 2016Ohayou Gozaimasu
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Aghast In Japan / August 24, 2016
Scribbler runs an “Observatory” , and mental health ward. Now some music to cheer all the “clients” up :
Children Of The Sun
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csnavywx
/ August 24, 2016Lionrock is quickly becoming the next potential “big one”. The last few runs of ECMWF (and ensembles — EPS) take this storm on a Sandy-esque track as a negative-tilt trough picks it up and slams it (heading northwest) into Japan. Warmer than normal waters along its track will help the storm considerably.
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016csnavywx –
You gonna love a typhoon named “Lionrock”. Still waiting on ” Aghast In Japan ” to give us a plot . He seems to be tried of numbers, in “Bum Fuck Nebrasaka” , He can report numbers when “Lionrock” packs his laptop with nud.
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Evangeline and Mathilda: Louisiana is Our Netherlands
By: Dr. Ricky Rood ,
Another thoughtful post from Dr, Rood, and his readers
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016… and a cluttered mind/laptop/C-drive…
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016– Colorado Routt County — County seat: Steamboat Springs
Cities: Steamboat Springs, Yampa, Oak Creek, Hayden
‘Official rejects overdue Peabody tax payment that shorted Routt County more than $91,000’
Routt County Treasurer Brita Horn last week rejected checks for $1.7 million in overdue property taxes from bankrupt coal company Peabody Energy because they fell short of the amount due — and then took money out of her own pocket for a public relations effort assuring taxpayers the company would get no special treatment.
Peabody, which filed for bankruptcy in April, sent two checks totaling $1,798,507.38 — a figure that did not include more than $91,000 in interest and fees. In a letter that arrived with the checks, Peabody suggested that the county could pursue additional charges through an amended claim in bankruptcy court.
A frustrated Horn, saying she could not accept less than the amount owed, mailed the checks back to Peabody on Thursday afternoon. Then, through a private public relations firm, she issued a news release explaining her action and the reasons behind it.
“For a county treasurer to cut deals for some taxpayers — while making others pay their full amounts — would be unfair and would erode public trust,” she said in the news release. “By law, if my office can’t offer a tax break to a single mom who worries about feeding her children, I’m not going to offer one to a multi-national corporation that just asked the bankruptcy court to pay its executives $12 million in bonuses.”
She was further frustrated on Friday by news that Peabody had now proposed setting aside more than $16 million for its executive bonuses.
http://www.denverpost.com/2016/08/19/routt-county-treasurer-rejects-peabody-tax-underpayment/
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coloradobob
/ August 25, 2016I was in Colorado when all began , They all wanted to crush coal, and mix it water, and send ir down hundreds of miles of pipelines . To keep the lights on in LA.
That was the year Colorado killed the ‘Games’
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016LikeLike
coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Dr. Ralph Stanley’s Funeral
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016One of a kind…
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016LikeLike
coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Perfect, just perfect.
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Ralph Stanley – “Man of Constant Sorrow” | Live at the Grand Ole Opry
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016‘Gaston’ – Ocean Waves Swells – UK – 40 ft. 0r >12 meters:
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Right into Trump’s golf resort.
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016LikeLike
wharf rat
/ August 24, 2016Islamanado terrorist attacks in Indiana, Ohio
Jesse Ferrell (@Accu_Jesse)
51 mins ago – View on Twitter
This tornado outbreak is absolutely nuts. Second round for Kokomo, IN area; two tornado-confirmed warnings in Ohio. pic.twitter.com/o10ATCQbh…
U.S. Tornadoes (@USTornadoes)
1 hour ago – View on Twitter
Up to 20 tornado reports and climbing across Indiana and Ohio, with “surprise” tornado outbreak today. pic.twitter.com/n99nnLFDI…
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016It appears that the weather may have been radicalized by fossil fuels and Exxon…
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016– And human deforestation/ illegal logging…
All aflutter: Extreme weather threatens Mexico’s monarchs
Heavy storms earlier this year hammered the forests that North America’s monarch butterflies migrate to in central Mexico, a study showed on Tuesday, fueling fears the habitat could eventually become untenable.
Conservationists said storms and strong winds in March uprooted more than 20,000 trees in Mexico’s Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve, which lies west of the capital on the border of the states of Mexico and Michoacan.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-butterfly-idUSKCN10Y2FE
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coloradobob
/ August 24, 2016Tip toeing on the edge of extinction. The puffins are in the same battle.
Suddenly your world is wiped away. .
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dtlange
/ August 24, 2016Montana — A sad sight.
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coloradobob
/ August 25, 2016In the 79, left Douglas , for Reno Junction on my V Twin. I was passing everything. like they were standing still , Ir was my chance. And i took it
When you chance comes , ………… Take it.
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dtlange
/ August 25, 2016Cod — the fish.
Ocean acidification threatens cod recruitment in the Atlantic
August 24, 2016
Increasing ocean acidification could double the mortality of newly-hatched cod larvae. This would put populations of this economically important fish species more and more under pressure if exploitation remains unchanged. For the first time ever, members of the German research network BIOACID have quantified mortality rates of cod in the western Baltic Sea and the Barents Sea under more acidified conditions which the fish may experience towards the end of the century.
http://phys.org/news/2016-08-ocean-acidification-threatens-cod-atlantic.html
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