Dangerous Hurricane Matthew Strengthens in Record Hot Environment — May hit Florida Twice

Hurricane Matthew has already been a storm for the record books. Matthew was the lowest latitude Category 5 storm to form on record in the Atlantic basin. An achievement that bears testament to the amount of heat energy the storm was feeding on — as higher latitude storms can better leverage the Earth’s spin to increase wind speed. It was the longest lasting Category 4-5 storm on record in the Caribbean. And it produced the highest accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of any hurricane on record for that sea.

matthew-track

(Matthew is predicted to track along the Eastern Seaboard from Central Florida through Georgia as a major hurricane on Friday and Saturday. After this first predicted strike as a major hurricane, long range model guidance is indicating that Matthew could re-curve. Such a path would bring Matthew repeatedly over the near record warm waters of the Gulf Stream and possibly produce a second landfall in Florida by Wednesday of next week. Image source: The National Hurricane Center.)

Matthew — A Record-Breaking Storm in a Record Hot World

This powerful hurricane has consistently fed on sea surface temperatures in the range of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius (84 to 86 Fahrenheit). These waters are 1-3 degrees Celsius above 20th Century averages and are at or near record hot levels. Furthermore, added heat at the ocean surface has led to greater evaporation which has contributed to 75 percent relative humidity readings at the middle levels of the atmosphere.

Such high levels of heat and atmospheric moisture are not normal. They provide an excessive amount of fuel for powering intense hurricanes like Matthew. And all this heat and moisture is now made more readily available by a record hot global environment resulting from the ever-rising levels of greenhouse gasses in the Earth’s atmosphere due to fossil fuel burning.

Maintaining Major Hurricane Intensity Despite Making Landfall Twice

Yesterday this heat-fueled storm vented its fury first on Haiti and then on Cuba. But as the rains fell at rates of up to 5 inches per hour and as the winds howled in at 145 mph, the mountainous terrain of these two islands took its toll on Matthew’s circulation. According to Dr. Jeff Masters, Matthew’s eye wall was disrupted and partially collapsed as the storm tracked over rugged eastern Cuba. As a result, its peak intensity dropped off from 145 mph early Tuesday to around 115 mph or a minimal category 3 storm during the morning on Wednesday.

near-record-warm-waters-off-the-us-east-coast-help-to-fuel-matthew

(Near record warm surface waters in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean off the US East Coast in the range of 1-3 degrees Celsius above average combined with very high atmospheric moisture levels to fuel Matthew’s unprecedented intensity. Such conditions are consistent with those produced by human-caused climate change. Factors that provide more energy for storms to feed on when they do form. Note that the readings depicted in the map are departures from average — with red through orange, yellow and white representing above-normal temperatures. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

Matthew Restrengthening

But Matthew has since re-emerged as a major hurricane over very warm waters near the Bahamas and it is again drawing on a nearly unprecedented supply of ocean heat and atmospheric moisture. As a result, the storm is rapidly re-strengthening. Thunderstorms around the center are rising again to towering heights. Pressures are dropping and peak wind speeds are starting to pick up. By tomorrow morning, it’s entirely possible that Matthew will have returned to Category 4 status — boasting a very large circulation and sustained winds in excess of 130 mph as it starts to threaten the Florida coast.

As of 5 PM EST on Wednesday the storm had already regained some intensity — hitting 120 mph maximum sustained winds. Model guidance puts the storm near or over the Coast of Central and Northern Florida by Friday morning with some models (ECMWF) showing a minimum central pressure near 940 to 945 mb by that time — representing a very powerful storm with winds possibly again exceeding 145 mph.

matthew-rapid-bombification

(Rapid bombification? Matthew re-intensifies as it tracks toward the Bahamas and Florida. Very dangerous situation emerging with swift, significant increases in strength possible. Image source: the National Hurricane Center.)

Matthew’s Predicted Track Could Bring Major Hurricane Conditions to Numerous East Coast Communities

Matthew is predicted to run parallel to the coast, with part of its circulation remaining over water. As a result, the storm could maintain intensity even as it drives hurricane force winds and strong storm surges into multiple cities and towns along the coast.

From the National Hurricane Center:

The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic is still strong, and the flow pattern around this ridge should continue to steer the hurricane toward the northwest during the next day or two with no significant change in forward speed. After that time, the ridge will shift eastward, allowing Matthew to move northward very near or over the north Florida east coast, and then near or to the east of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.

Such a path would tend to keep Matthew strong for a longer period of time. In addition, movement along the coastline could result in severe impacts ranging over a very large region — not just focusing on a particular section of the shore, but running along the oceanfront for hundreds of miles. In the worst case scenario for Matthew, diverse regions from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville to Savannah all experience significant hurricane impacts including major hurricane winds and severe storm surge flooding.

st-augustine-under-water

(Hurricane Matthew has the potential to put multiple communities from Florida through Georgia under severe storm surge flooding. The above map shows a worst case scenario (1 in 10 probability) where most of St. Augustine, FL — a city of about 120,000 people — is under 1-9 feet of water. This potential is repeated in the NHS model on up and down the Florida and Georgia coastlines. Image source: The National Hurricane Center.)

Matthew Could Hit Florida Twice

But if the current forecast isn’t rough enough, the long range looks even worse. Model guidance is now starting to form a consensus that Matthew may not immediately head out to sea following its first encounter with the US East Coast. In fact, models like GFS, ECMWF and CMC are indicating that Matthew may loop back, possibly even striking Florida a second time by Wednesday (GFS). Though highly uncertain, the possibility of Matthew returning to the warm water environment that so greatly added to its strength initially, before hitting Florida a second time, was enough to draw some pretty strong words from experts like Dr. Jeff Masters over at Weather Underground earlier today.

Dr. Masters noted:

Thanks to my advancing years and a low-stress lifestyle that features daily meditation, there’s not much that can move me to profanity—except the occasional low-skill driver who endangers my life on the road. But this morning while looking at the latest weather model runs, multiple very bad words escaped my lips. I’ve been a meteorologist for 35 years, and am not easily startled by a fresh set of model results: situations in 2005 and 1992 are the only ones that come to mind. However, this morning’s depiction by our top models—the GFS, European, and UKMET—of Matthew missing getting picked up by the trough to its north this weekend and looping back to potentially punish The Bahamas and Florida next week was worthy of profuse profanity.

Such a loop back and second hit to Florida and the Bahamas is highly uncertain at this time. However, given all the heat and moisture available, there’s a possibility that Matthew could re-strengthen along such a path after the significant wind shear predicted Sunday and Monday subsides — bringing forward the possibility, however unlikely, of the same storm striking Florida and the Bahamas twice as a major hurricane over the course of 5-7 days.

It would be a very odd and unfortunate event if it did happen. One that would have been fueled by all the climate change related hot water and near record moisture readings sitting at the ocean surface and rising on up into the middle levels of the atmosphere. But given the storm now blowing up over the Bahamas this evening, a possible first strike is already looking rough enough.

UPDATES TO FOLLOW

Links/Statements:

Note: This is a potentially highly dangerous developing weather situation. Coastal interests from the Bahamas through Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas should stay abreast of forecasts provided by the National Hurricane Center and stay tuned to local weather statements and/or possible evacuation/emergency storm shelter information.

Hurricane Matthew Reorganizing over the Bahamas

Hurricane Matthew has Already Shattered Records in the Caribbean Sea

It’s not hype: Hurricane Matthew has Been Blasting Through Records

The National Hurricane Center

Scientific Hat tip to Dr. Jeff Masters

Hat tip to Colorado Bob

Hat tip to DT Lange

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103 Comments

  1. JPL

     /  October 5, 2016

    Hurricane Matthew threatens to test Lake Okeechobee’s dike

    Lake Okeechobee’s dike, built in the 1930s, is in the midst of a decades-long rehab, which limits how much water can be held in the lake. The slow-moving dike repair is expected to take until 2025.

    Reply
    • JPL

       /  October 5, 2016

      The Army Corps tries to keep the lake between 12.5 and 15.5 feet above sea level to ease the strain on the 143-mile long dike – considered one of the country’s most at risk of failing.

      The lake level on Tuesday was 15.78 feet. Erosion problems and other stability threats are more of a risk when the lake level rises above 17.5 feet, according to the Army Corps.

      The problem is, the lake fills up much faster than South Florida’s vast system of canals and pumps can drain water out to sea. Just one tropical storm can boost the lake 3 feet.

      Reply
    • Track might stay away from the lake. Lets hope so.

      Reply
    • EDIT:

      2-4 inches of rain over the lake on current projected path. A little jog to the west, though, would be rough.

      Reply
  2. climatehawk1

     /  October 5, 2016

    Tweet scheduled.

    Reply
  3. coloradobob

     /  October 5, 2016

    Michelle Obama sets her garden in stone
    The first lady makes it harder for a future president to scrap her South Lawn legacy.

    First lady Michelle Obama is making sure that whoever inhabits the White House next doesn’t rip out her iconic vegetable garden — at least not without a big fuss.
    Obama Wednesday afternoon unveiled a much bigger version of the garden that uses cement, stone and steel to make it a more permanent fixture on the South Lawn. The updates are seen not just as preserving Obama’s garden — recognized globally as a symbol of local food — but also as a way to dissuade, say, a President Donald Trump from scrapping it the way Ronald Reagan tore out Jimmy Carter’s solar panels after he moved into the White House.

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/michelle-obama-garden-changes-white-house-229204#ixzz4MFzdOuVL

    Reply
  4. coloradobob

     /  October 5, 2016

    SNPP/VIIRS
    2016/279
    10/05/2016
    06:50 UTC
    Smoke over western Siberia

    Reply
  5. These strong storms are just getting warmed up due to, of course, global warming. What astonishes me is the almost complete denial by our supposed leaders. When will the wake up to the fact that band-aid fixes won’t solve this major problem facing humanity? Maybe when Miami or Orlando get washed away and other low lying areas of the east coast. It really is time for some real changes by our leadership, individuals can only do so much. I live in a small studio apt. and don’t own a car and use city buses but that’s not enough and I grow more frustrated with each bad weather event or fire ignored by the leadership. It really is time for some real change.

    Reply
    • JA
      A friend of mine worked in Rhodesia when it was still Rhodesia. He said the government kept assuring folks everything was OK up until the time it fell. I have wondered if this approach is a characteristic of all governments.

      Reply
  6. Griffin

     /  October 6, 2016

    Great post Robert. I like the way that you have encouraged all to please consult the forecast given by the National Hurricane Center. Especially now with so many careless folks plastering social media with single model solutions. Those among us who might really need to know what might happen to them or their loved ones need to know who to trust for good information. A hurricane will always have the final say on where exactly it ends up going but if anyone can give the best guess possible, it is the pros at the NHC.

    Reply
  7. coloradobob

     /  October 6, 2016

    One other creepy thing about Matthew, that right hand turn it made last week, and it’s sluggish forward speed ever since.

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  October 6, 2016

      No one has explained the huge convection blob it had either.

      Reply
      • Griffin

         /  October 6, 2016

        Hi Greg. The interaction that produced the blob is certainly complicated but this may help. Anthony Sagliani is an outstanding source of quality information.

        Reply
    • Griffin

       /  October 6, 2016

      Not too creepy if you look at the steering factors involved CB. The turn was tied to a deep trough. There is also precedent for it.

      Reply
  8. coloradobob

     /  October 6, 2016

    Atlantic Ocean’s slowdown tied to changes in the Southern Hemisphere
    October 5, 2016
    Instead, the authors saw a surprising connection with a current around the southern tip of South Africa. In what’s known as the Agulhas Current, warm Indian Ocean water flows south along the African coast and around the continent’s tip toward the Atlantic, but then makes a sharp turn back to join the stormy southern circumpolar current. Warm water that escapes into the Atlantic around the cape of South Africa is known as the Agulhas Leakage. The new research shows the amount of leakage changes with the quantity of heat transported northward by the overturning circulation.

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-10-atlantic-ocean-slowdown-tied-southern.html#jCp

    Reply
    • Mark from OZ

       /  October 6, 2016

      Great link CB!
      Here’s a related one on ‘boundary currents’: wind-driven and up to 1000 m deep, they are known as the ‘fast movers’ amongst the ocean currents. Weather in Asia, South Africa, South America and Australasia tipped to become warmer and stormier as a result of their heat induced changes.

      ““Our analysis shows that the surface temperature of the boundary currents has increased two to three times faster than in other oceanic regions,” said Hu Yang, a climate scientist at AWI and co-author of the study. “In addition, the currents release at least 20 percent more heat than they did half a century ago, which leads to the conclusion that the temperature of the water has risen, its flow speed has increased and the currents thus transfer more water and also more heat from the tropics towards the pole.”

      http://blogs.agu.org/geospace/2016/06/28/climate-change-causing-oceanic-boundary-currents-intensify-shift-poleward/?subscribe=success#blog_subscription-2ReplyDelete

      Reply
  9. 00:44 UTC

    Reply
  10. Reply
  11. Twitter chatter re Matthew:

    Mark Yorsaner ‏@MarkYorsaner 3m3 minutes ago

    @FoxNews Why is #MATTHEW not the main story? Millions are in severe danger here and the election, which isn’t for a month, is the main story

    Rows~ ‏@Rowsdowerrrrr 3m3 minutes ago

    Well time to get hit by a god damn hurricane. Fuck. If I don’t tweet anything on Saturday it means I’m dead. #Matthew

    Reply
  12. Reply
    • FluTrackers.com ‏@FluTrackers 1m1 minute ago

      #Haiti – U.N. Sec-General said at least 350,000 people needed immediate assistance

      Reply
  13. Andy_in_SD

     /  October 6, 2016

    Sea ice cover having some challenges getting coverage for the fall. Dipping at the edge of -2 std dev.

    Reply
  14. Keep an eye on New Providence – they’ve really gone overboard turning flood zones into high-priced real estate there.

    Reply
  15. labmonkey2

     /  October 6, 2016

    Looks like Donalds Mar-a-Lago will have a tough time, too. Palm Beach is expecting 7-10″ and 100mph winds.
    https://weather.com/weather/today/l/26.65,-80.28

    Reply
  16. Notice the text and descriptors:

    Reply
    • Ignore the above.

      All relating info at NWS:

      SITUATION OVERVIEW
      ——————

      MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER
      THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR AND OVER THE
      EAST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

      THIS IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING
      SITUATION!

      ‘POTENTIAL IMPACTS
      —————–

      * WIND:
      PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE DEVASTATING
      IMPACTS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL
      IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
      – STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS, SOME WITH COMPLETE ROOF
      AND WALL FAILURES. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES. DAMAGE
      GREATLY ACCENTUATED BY LARGE AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. LOCATIONS
      MAY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS OR MONTHS.
      – NUMEROUS LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG WITH FENCES AND
      ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
      – MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
      OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. MANY BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS
      ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
      – WIDESPREAD POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.

      http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mlb&wwa=hurricane%20local%20statement

      Reply
  17. 06:16 UTC
    Bahamas:
    Brad ‏@MurieBrad 11m11 minutes ago

    Hours ahead of #Matthew arriving and the winds are very strong in #Nassau.Its coming right at us…it’s already here!#twisterquote

    Reply
  18. Greenland glaciers — anyone care to dig into this?

    Reply
  19. 930 mb…

    Reply
  20. Greg

     /  October 6, 2016

    Haiti news trickling out:

    Reply
  21. 08:30 UTC
    Bill Karins Verified account ‏@BillKarins 5m5 minutes ago

    New #HurricaneHunter aircraft approaching the eye of #Matthew. Last pressure reading was 954mb. Lower numbers = stronger @MSNBC

    Reply
  22. USA Meanwhile out West hot, dry, windy of another sort:

    Reply
  23. Via Svein T. vietdal

    October 5, 2016, by Radio Ecoshock

    The Russian government is hiding the massive fires in Siberia, says Alexey Yaroshenko of Greenpeace in Moscow. It’s another sign climate chaos has arrived. From Germany, Isabel Rosa explains science of new emissions baked in, no matter what we do. David Turnbull of Oil Change International on report “Sky’s the Limit” – why there can be no new oil and gas wells or coal mines.
    http://www.ecoshock.org/2016/10/siberia-ablaze-in-september-another-sign-of-climate-chaos.html

    Reply
  24. Reply
  25. Greg

     /  October 6, 2016

    Never seen Stu Ostro hype anything. Excellent meteorologist. Former denier and now Hawk.

    Reply
  26. Greg

     /  October 6, 2016

    Last tweet from Hurricane hunter in Nassau, Bahamas hours ago

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  October 6, 2016

      This was the kind of storm surge damage from Matthew in eastern Cuba, now headed for very urban Florida.

      Reply
    • Greg

       /  October 6, 2016

      sorry about the Stu Ostro relink.

      Reply
  27. Robert in New Orleans

     /  October 6, 2016

    One the things that I have not seen any discussion is about is the aftermath of Matthew. My understanding is that when it comes to hurricane insurance, the state of Florida is self insured because the insurance companies stopped offering hurricane policies after 2004 when the state was hit by four storms (Charley, Francis, Ivan & Jeannie). The question now is can or will Matthew bankrupt the state of Florida?

    Reply
  28. Greg

     /  October 6, 2016

    Note on the graphic the steadily rising sea level over the last 100 years or so:

    Reply
  29. Greg

     /  October 6, 2016

    This image from last night shows how dense the population is in Florida compared to where the storm has been.

    Reply
  30. Greg

     /  October 6, 2016

    Reply
  31. Greg

     /  October 6, 2016

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  October 6, 2016

      Storm surge is the major threat but don’t forget that a 100mph hurricane is far more damaging than 75mph. There is a cubic relationship between wind speed and power.

      Reply
  32. Greg

     /  October 6, 2016

    That return loop still looking very possible due to that block up north. One two punch:

    Reply
    • wili

       /  October 7, 2016

      It’s like Matthew is saying, “Oops, missed a spot down there at the end of the peninsula…Better go back and get it!”

      Reply
  33. Josh

     /  October 6, 2016

    Not so big news compared to Matthew but nevertheless…

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/06/uk-fracking-given-go-ahead-as-lancashire-council-rejection-is-overturned

    Fracking given UK go-ahead as Lancashire council rejection overturned

    Communities secretary, Sajid Javid, has accepted an appeal from Cuadrilla against an earlier decision to turn down their plans to frack on the Fylde

    The government said it had considered a report from its statutory climate advisers in July, which concluded that fracking would break the UK’s carbon targets without stricter rules, but it was not relevant to the appeal process.

    “The secretary of state [Javid] has taken these documents … into account,” said the appeal decision. “How shale gas relates to the obligations such as those set out in the Paris agreement and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change carbon budgets are a matter for future national policy and not for these appeals.”

    National policy should be updated with haste, rather than waiting for the “future”. There is so much wrong with fracking but still there isn’t enough focus on the biggest & most scary issue of all – GHG emissions.

    Best wishes and solidarity to the Lancashire Nanas and the rest of Frack Free Lancashire in fighting this. They’re already organised a peaceful protest for the weekend.

    Reply
    • Marcusblanc

       /  October 6, 2016

      This will be fought all the way, as will any other sites. I just don’t think English people are used to earthquakes, even small ones!

      Reply
      • Marcusblanc

         /  October 6, 2016

        Mind you, I didn’t think we would vote for Brexit either, so what do I know?🙂

        Reply
    • Mulga Mumblebrain

       /  October 7, 2016

      Josh, here’s hoping the locals lay their bodies on the line to stop the evil fracking madness. It’s just like Australia, also living under an evil, hard Right regime. The South Australian power system crashed last week, for a few hours in most places, because a climate destabilisation worsened ‘super-storm’ spawned a super-cell that spewed tornadoes that ripped many high voltage power-line pylons out of the ground, and twisted them like raffia.
      Immediately the entire Evil bedlam of the Right descended en masse, led by our cretinous Deputy PM, the bone-head denialist ultra Barnaby Joyce, and in the MSM by the Murdoch cancer, to lunaticly blame renewable energy for the failure. Since then our odious puppet PM, Turnbull, who fronts for the real PM, Tony Abbott of ‘coal is good for humanity’, infamy, joined on the band-waggon. It’s been non-stop ever since, with the TOTAL destruction of renewable energy, a long-held Murdoch project, the objective. Yet they still mouth sordid garbage about ‘meeting our Paris agreements’ (a ludicrous 23% reduction by 2030) when all rational observers say that we will get NOWHERE near even that tragi-comic insufficiency. Everywhere you look, Rightwing fanatics are working to exterminate humanity, driven by greed, stupidity and sheer malevolence.

      Reply
  34. Greg

     /  October 6, 2016

    Reply
  35. Greg

     /  October 6, 2016

    Reply
  36. The GOES-R satellite, the US’ newest weather satellite, would be monitoring Matthew right now, but the launch was delayed 6 mos. It’s now in Matthew’s path:

    http://mashable.com/2016/10/05/weather-satellite-path-hurricane-matthew/#HT8EKc5nZOql

    Can something be ironic without being funny?

    Reply
    • Mulga Mumblebrain

       /  October 7, 2016

      God, yes. Life is tragically ironic, everywhere you look.

      Reply
  37. Andy_in_SD

     /  October 6, 2016

    This is an interesting NOAA product.

    Navigable inundation map.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154742.shtml?inundation#contents

    Reply
  38. Greg

     /  October 6, 2016

    US National Weather Service Jacksonville Weather.gov/JAX @NWSJacksonville
    …THIS IS NOW A WORST CASE STORM SURGE SCENARIO…
    Catastrophic Damage is Anticipated for Coastal Areas.
    Major Hurricane Matthew is still expected to move DANGEROUSLY
    CLOSE the Florida First Coast and Southeast Georgia Coast Friday through Friday night into Saturday with catastrophic impacts expected along and near the coast. A major hurricane has not impacted this area in 118 years, since October 2nd1898. There is NO local
    living memory of the potential of this event. If a direct landfall occurs this will be unlike any hurricane in the modern era.
    The western eyewall is expected to move along a portions of the coast with sustained winds 115 to 125 mph and gusts in the most affected areas! Winds will be higher in high rise structures in Downtown Florida possibly strong Category 4 to Category 5 intensity!
    Some of the lowest barrier islands will be completely overtopped with large battering wave and life threatening flooding. Barrier islands are likely to breached and it is extremely possible that new inlets will be cut in the worst affected areas. Please, Please heed the advice of public and emergency management officials. 40 people in New York
    and New Jersey did not heed these warning during Sandy and died in the storm surge!
    This will be a MUCH Greater surge than Sandy had along the New Jersey Shore!

    Reply
  39. Greg

     /  October 6, 2016

    Matt Drudge (I will not link) tweeted this:
    “The deplorables are starting to wonder if govt has been lying to them about Hurricane Matthew intensity to make exaggerated point on climate” and headlines with
    “Matthew looks ragged”
    This is beyond irresponsible. People’s lives are right now imminent danger. Shameful. Death toll reports are already over 200 from the islands and will climb….

    Reply
  40. – Inundation & devastation.

    A Coast Guard Air Station Miami HC-144 Ocean Sentry Airplane Crew Conducts the First Post-Storm Damage Assessment Flights Over Haiti following Hurricane Matthew on October 5, 2016.
    https://www.dvidshub.net/video/486466/coast-guard-air-station-miami-hc-144-ocean-sentry-airplane-crew-conducts-first-post-storm-damage-assessment-flights

    Reply
  41. – Lightning

    Reply
  42. Greg

     /  October 6, 2016

    Freeport, Bahamas now:

    Reply
  43. Robert, today 10/06 KBOO’s ‘Presswatch – The News You’re Not Supposed to Know’ quoted extensively from this Matthew post.

    Reply
  44. coloradobob

     /  October 6, 2016

    From Dr. Master’s
    A unique storm in Florida hurricane annals
    There are no ideal analogs for Matthew’s expected track and strength along the Florida coast. Only a handful of hurricanes have struck Florida with winds as strong as Matthew’s current 140 mph, and the only hurricanes known to have been “coast scrapers” along the central and northern Florida coast were considerably weaker than Matthew. For most residents along the north half of Florida’s Atlantic coast, and perhaps the Georgia coast as well, Matthew will be the strongest hurricane in living memory. (The last major hurricane to affect the Jacksonville area was in 1898.) Breaking waves as high as 15 to 25 feet on top of potential major storm surge are likely to inflict severe damage to beaches and barrier islands along the central and northern Florida coast.

    Reply
  45. Greg

     /  October 6, 2016

    Very unusual, if not unprecedented, message the Weather Channel:

    Reply
  46. Greg

     /  October 6, 2016

    Another image coming out of Haiti. Death toll officially 264 (and likely much higher).

    Reply
  47. Does anyone have an explanation for why the winds in Matthew per Earth Nullschool have not shown the strength reported elsewhere? Here a screen shot with winds clocked at 167 km/h or a high category 2 @ 850hPa. These are about max winds I have seen the last day or so. Winds are considerably lower at the surface. Pressure is also higher.

    Reply

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