UPDATED: Matthew’s Nightmarish Storm Surge Takes Aim at 430-Mile Stretch of U.S. Coast

All throughout yesterday and today the story has been the same — dangerous hurricane Matthew is strengthening in a record-hot atmosphere and ocean environment as it continues to take a course that will result in severe flooding impacts for a massive swath of the southeastern U.S. seaboard.

An Extraordinarily Powerful Category 4 Hurricane

As of 5 PM EST today, the center of Hurricane Matthew was located about 25 miles to the south of Freeport, Bahamas. The storm was tracking off to the north-northwest, making steady progress toward Florida and a large section of the U.S. coastline. Since yesterday, maximum sustained winds have increased from around 120 mph to a present peak wind speed of around 140 mph. More importantly, the storm’s minimum central pressure is falling. As of the 5 PM advisory, the storm’s lowest pressure reading stood at 936 millibars — about 2 mb stronger than Hurricane Sandy’s peak intensity.

very-robust-hurricane-matthew-heads-toward-us-east-coast

(A very robust Hurricane Matthew is starting to look more and more like a CAT 5 than a CAT 4 in the most recent satellite shots. That’s bad news for the southeastern U.S. coastline as this powerful storm is approaching at an oblique angle — one that, if the storm continues along its forecast track, will push a large surge of water topped with powerful breaking waves into numerous coastal communities. Image source: The National Hurricane Center.)

The National Hurricane Center notes that Matthew may have just gone through an eye-wall replacement cycle, which would result in a brief drop in maximum sustained winds. But pressures continued to drop as the storm got better organized, and now, the satellite picture shows the fearful symmetry of an extremely dangerous storm. As Matthew continues to get more organized, peak wind speeds could continue to rise, hitting 145 mph or higher before ramping wind shear and a long encounter with the U.S. mainland begins to check Matthew’s considerable strength.

Possible Flooding Rains Threaten Lake Okeechobee Dikes

As Matthew approached the coastline this afternoon, large bands of rain began to cover much of Florida even as onshore winds stiffened. Lake Okeechobee — which is now going through a series of dike upgrades to protect communities east of the lake from storm events like Matthew — is starting to see the effects of these heavy rain bands. With 4 to 8 inches or more of rainfall possible over the Lake Okeechobee region from Matthew (and up to 12 inches or more for parts of coastal Florida), pressure to a dike system needing refurbishment is likely to present serious challenges.

matthews-rains-blanket-florida

(Matthew’s considerable rain bands are already blanketing Florida and 4 to 12 inches are possible for parts of the state. Image source: The National Weather Service.)

The Major Hazard Comes From a Potentially Massive Storm Surge

Farther north and east, the main story is that Matthew is pushing a Sandy-like storm surge toward a 430-mile section of the U.S. coastline. According to the National Hurricane Center, a region stretching from Sebastian Inlet in Florida north to Edisto Beach in southeastern South Carolina could experience storm surges in the range of 7 to 11 feet. A 700-mile arc from Deerfield Beach, Florida to the Santee River in South Carolina could see surges above 4 feet.

Such a powerful storm surge over so large an area would swamp numerous coastal communities already facing the difficulties of human-forced sea level rise, like increasing cases of nuisance flooding at times of monthly and seasonal high tides. As with Sandy, Matthew’s storm surge will rush in upon this higher launching pad resulting from thermal expansion of the world’s waters, glacial melt, and ocean current shifts related to climate change.

st-augustine-flooding

(Considerable worst-case storm surge risks are now posed by Matthew to coastal communities like St. Augustine. As Matthew strengthened Thursday, these severe flooding potentials continued to worsen. Compare with earlier flood map here. Image source: The National Hurricane Center.)

As a result of Matthew’s continued strengthening over near record-hot waters and a moisture-laden atmosphere, prospects for coastal communities along the storm’s path don’t look very good. A 7- to-11 foot surge is enough to swamp many communities. As we can see in the image above, worst-case potential flooding (1 in 10 probability to exceed) for St. Augustine now puts that city under 3 to 10 feet of water — dramatically worse than last night’s initial storm-surge model estimates of a possible 1-to-9 foot inundation for the city.

As Matthew’s expected track runs parallel to the coastline, city after city, from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville to Savannah to Charleston, faces the potential for similarly extreme coastal flooding as Matthew continues to rush shoreward.

UPDATES TO FOLLOW

Note: This is an increasingly dangerous developing weather situation. Coastal interests from the Bahamas through Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas should stay abreast of forecasts provided by the National Hurricane Center, stay tuned to local weather statements, and remain to respond to possible evacuation/emergency storm shelter information.

UPDATE 1245 EST FRIDAY: Hurricane Matthew is still a dangerous Category 3 storm, packing winds of 120 mph and hammering coastal Florida with a 6-to-10 foot storm surge. Early reports indicate that the eye wall of Matthew, winds of 100-plus mph, and a strong storm surge severely damaged the barrier islands near Cape Canaveral as Matthew brushed by. Extensive flooding and damage has also been reported in the New Smyrna/Daytona Beach area.

staugjeffgoodell

(Downtown St. Augustine, Florida earlier today. Photo credit: Jeff Goodell.)

Of greater concern is the fact that Matthew’s strongest effects are approaching St. Augustine and Jacksonville at or near the time of high tide. Already, reports are coming in of severe flooding in parts of both of these cities (see image above).

 

Links:

The National Hurricane Center

The National Weather Service

Dangerous Hurricane Matthew Strengthens in Record-Hot Environment

Hat tip to JPL

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375 Comments

  1. Cate

     /  October 6, 2016

    “…fearful symmetry…” I like, RS. Well said. A hat-tip to William Blake is perfect in this context—-Matthew’s tyger-eye, burning bright……

    Reply
  2. coloradobob

     /  October 6, 2016

    The death toll in Haiti as a result of Hurricane Matthew has soared to 264, the government says.
    Some 50 people were reported to have died in the southern town of Roche-a-Bateau alone.
    The peninsula’s main city, Jeremie, saw 80% of its buildings levelled. In Sud province 30,000 homes were destroyed.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37582009

    Reply
  3. Syd Bridges

     /  October 6, 2016

    We can only hope that everyone who needs evacuation is safely away from the danger areas, so that there will be little or no loss of human life: so Matthew does not become another Katrina.

    However, the financial cost of this could be immense, and I wonder who will pay for it all. I cannot see most insurance companies offering flood insurance in these areas, even if people were willing to pay the premiums. Reinsurers, like Swiss Re and Munich Re are all too aware of the risks, having explicitly warned of the dangers of global warning. so they probably wouldn’t touch the business with a bargepole. The Republican Governors of these states have deliberately cut revenues, so they are unlikely to have the resources needed. No doubt, they will expect Federal aid-which I hope and expect will be forthcoming-and then they’ll blame President Obama for increasing the deficit. I wonder how many of the Congresspersons from these states voted against aid for the states affected by Hurricane Sandy.

    Reply
  4. Cate

     /  October 7, 2016

    http://www.live-news24.com/economy/15573/UN-agreement-reached-on-aircraft-climate-change-emissions

    “The agreement, adopted overwhelmingly by the 191-nation International Civil Aviation Organization at a meeting in Montreal, sets airlines’ carbon emissions in the year 2020 as the upper limit of what carriers are allowed to discharge. Airlines that exceed that limit in future years, as most are expected to do, will have to offset their emissions growth by buying carbon credits from other industries…
    The last minute change to the aviation emissions agreement stripped out language that would have aligned the agreement with the goal of keeping global warming below a 2 degree rise.”

    Offsets. Sigh. I suppose it’s better than nothing? Is it?

    Reply
    • wili

       /  October 7, 2016

      It looks to me as though, like most people who still fly regularly, they don’t really get the connection between what now seems like a normal activity to many people and the destruction unfolding before us. We have to start getting the meme across that, knowing what we know, discretionary flying (along with some other non-necessary high emission activities) must now be seen essentially as terrorism.

      Reply
    • Griffin

       /  October 7, 2016

      It is sad that they have chosen offsets but that remains the cheapest route to fly and the one that offers the most opportunities to cheat.
      I would argue that it is not that we need to stop flying, but rather the airlines start using a real sustainable algae based fuel.
      If we were all to suddenly stop flying, we would cripple a huge section of the world economy. Far more people rely on aircraft than many realize. It’s not like those folks can just up and get another job. If no one goes to the airport, the workers in the restaurants and hotels and rental car places, they are screwed. The connection to aviation goes on and on and deep into society.
      Of course we are more screwed if the airlines continue burning fossil fuels but they don’t have to. They just don’t want to because of the cost involved. If we stopped subsidizing FF production and put that money into algae based fuel, we could see a rapid transition to a cleaner fuel that requires no changes to the existing airport infrastructure or to the aircraft themselves. It’s not fantasy, it really can be done. We only lack the political will to change the laws that exist today and create new ones for the benefit of all of us.

      Reply
      • Tourism is double edged. Those flying emissions are a very bad thing, but eco-tourism is one of the easier to use tools to shape human behaviour in less destructive ways… I mostly think about the far reaching sucess of Tamar project in Brasil, in which changing communities main source of revenue from predatory fishing to ecotourism benefited both the human communities (going from IDH 0,3 to IDH 0,6 is a huge leap) and local ecossystem (population trends for all marine turtles protected by Tamar are increasing locally, and other indicators, like water pollution signals, are better now than in the past), but that´s one of several projects that I known of that harness the power of tourism for good.

        Jaguar-watching in Pantanal, muriqui-seeing in Espírito-Santo, maned-wolf feeding in Minas Gerais, macaw-watching in Bahia, diving in Fernando de Noronha, swimming with pink-dolphins in Anavilhanas, seeing the migration of purple-breasted parrots in Santa Catarina, watching whales in Rio Grande do Sul… almost everywhere in Brasil where strong biodiversity protection projects are being sucessfull there´s the tourism factor involved… getting people to value and boast of their local fauna to visitors, creating monetary value in preserved ecossystems.

        I share the feeling that monetary value shouldn´t be necessary, but I pragmatically remember that this feeling is not shared for everyone. Hungry people will kill that last rare bird for supper with no ache in their conscience.

        I seriously doubt, from the news that I hear from abroad, that this effect of tourism is restricted to Brasil. NGOs from Africa, specially, seem to heavily use tourism as a preservation tool. If no tourist would visit Ruanda for their gorillas, or Quenia to see that spectacular migration of ungulates… would local populations really see preserving those as a priority? Sorry, but only in highly distilled hopium I could believe that.

        Staycations and trading flights for trains and such are nice, but the places that need visitors the most are normally the most difficult to reach. Ok, my view from this in Brasil is highly biased because there are not passenger trains here (ok, there´s a few tourist lines that don´t go anywhere, just round-lines, nothing allowing real travel). Yes, I do envy you luck people in Europe and your trains. Actually, I envy Amtrak too.

        But I don´t see a total stop of commercial flight, or in tourism flights as a good thing. It would reduce emissions, yes. We´re in such a mess, that maybe it´s needed at this point, I known. But it would also cripple most biodiversity preservation projects. Trying to strive for a cleaner aviation, specially if solar and/or biofuels can be used instead of fossil fuels seems like a better move in my view.

        Reply
  5. coloradobob

     /  October 7, 2016

    Barely over a quarter of Americans know that almost all climate scientists agree that climate change is happening and that humans are to blame, a new Pew Research Center survey finds.

    The survey also reveals a strong split between political liberals and political conservatives on the issue. While 55 percent of liberal Democrats say climate scientists are trustworthy, only 15 percent of conservative Republicans say the same.

    http://www.livescience.com/56396-americans-misinformed-on-climate-change.html

    Reply
  6. Marcusblanc

     /  October 7, 2016

    It’s hard watching this develop, we all know how vulnerable Florida is.

    Haiti looks devastated… again.

    Reply
  7. coloradobob

     /  October 7, 2016

    U.S. and U.K. plan ‘Thwaites invasion’ in Antarctica

    STERLING, VIRGINIA—If there’s one universal question that scientists working on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet hear from their friends and families, it’s this: “How fast is the sea going to rise?”

    The ice sheet is one of the biggest wild cards in sea-level projections for the next century, its durable uncertainty complicating efforts to adapt to human-driven climate change. Once thought stable for centuries, it has become clear from satellite and airplane observations that parts of the sheet are thinning and could become unstable. But when that might happen is uncertain, with estimates ranging from as soon as the next few decades to the next few centuries.

    In a bid to refine these estimates, this month the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the United Kingdom’s Natural Environment Research Council will announce a project to support coordinated fieldwork on the Thwaites Glacier, the emerging epicenter of potential melt on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although NSF declined to disclose exact figures, the initiative will likely provide tens of millions of dollars for Antarctic research over 5 years, including spending on infrastructure.

    http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/10/us-and-uk-plan-thwaites-invasion-antarctica

    Reply
  8. coloradobob

     /  October 7, 2016

    Our Record Warmth: Pointing out the Obvious
    By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 5:18 AM GMT on October 04, 2016

    If you take this figure and place a line on the top of the La Niña years since 1980 (Figure 5), the direction appears, without benefit of statistical analysis, to be less variable than, for example, a similar line connecting the El Niño years. It is like the La Niña years let us see the background warming of the planet. For better or worse, that La Niña trend line suggests that the cool time of this cycle will be comparable to the 1997-98 El Niño. Again, with regard to the warming of the Earth, we have not only left the proverbial station, but we are out in the country on open track, accelerating to full speed.

    https://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/our-record-warmth-pointing-out-the-obvious

    Reply
  9. Jay M

     /  October 7, 2016

    storm

    Reply
  10. Greg

     /  October 7, 2016

    Cape Canaveral (north of Melbourne) appears to have never been hit with a major recorded hurricane. Could change today and impact the space program in a major way:

    Reply
  11. 01:05 UTC Bahamas precip.

    Reply
  12. labmonkey2

     /  October 7, 2016

    Curious what impact the new storm (Nicole) will have on the Matthew track – many are saying it will double-back and cross FL from East to West as Nicole moves West. If it survives that land crossing, will it regain strength in the Gulf and menace LA/TX?
    All that energy & moisture has to go somewhere. And more contaminated run-off, too.

    Remember, the microbes don’t care…

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  October 7, 2016

      The last Dr. Master’s said, the upper level winds will attack next week and tear both appart.

      Reply
      • Thanks for that update from Dr. Masters; am watching via internet from Ecuador, and this looks scary, especialy the bowling-ball strike zone and the predicted 360-degree loop. Factoring in Nicole’s mood amplifies those feelings…. Hopefully those winds will do their job.

        I watched via internet when Katrina hit my home state/Mississippi when I lived in Central America, and the first live tv footage the next day made me weep.

        I may live out of the country, but I care about all of you who might be affected by Matthew

        Reply
        • coloradobob

           /  October 7, 2016

          There is more than enough pain around tonight , I feel for the people of Ecuador fighting drilling in the Amazon.

        • You are right, and thank you for your empathy. My ‘home base’ is/was where the earthquake hit.. there is still much pain there, and it’s heart wrenching.

          I remain baffled how/why mankind has such tunnel vision and continues to desecrate our planet, at an expense to every living organism.

          With a hollow feeling, I’m refreshing Wunderground page to see who Matthew tormented while most of the world slept.

          Thanks to all of you who share the same concerns and are proactive in making a difference. Lisa

  13. Cate

     /  October 7, 2016

    http://www.democracynow.org/2016/10/6/amid_media_blackout_over_climate_change

    What is the connection between Matthew and climate change and why aren’t we hearing about it?

    Amy Goodman talks to Michael Mann and Oliver Milman on the publication of Mann’s new book, The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial is Threatening our Planet, Destroying our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy.

    (Note to self: ask Santa for this book.)

    The takeaway from Mann echoes what Robert has been saying all along—-

    “…..vote climate, not just at the top of the ticket, but all the way down. The only way this is going to change is if we elect politicians who are willing to represent our interests rather than the special interests that have funded these campaigns in the past.”

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  October 7, 2016

      The title of this link _

      Amid Media Blackout over Climate Change Links to Hurricane Matthew, Top Scientist Speaks Out

      And Robert Scribbler.

      Reply
    • I think one of the problems it that we think polititians can solve climate change for us. unfortunately, we are all part of it.

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  October 7, 2016

        We are indeed all part of it and we all have a part to play, but our political leaders have the biggest role to play in the transformation that is needed to slow down climate change.

        I am old enough to remember the time before Neo-liberalism. This was an ideological project mounted by the corporate elites about a generation ago to take over the global public agenda in the interests of corporations. They did this by buying the politicians into their corner, who then forced all sorts of neo-liberal economic reforms down our throats under the guise of “globalisation”, “deregulation,” “economic growth”, and other such catch-phrases. These phrases all disguised the huge cash grab that they planned through reorganising the global economy to benefit corporations—and which has now come to pass.

        It was all propaganda, of course, an ideology paraded before us as truth. The politicians led the people to believe that all of this was in our interest and that we would benefit from the “trickle-down”, which turned out to be a euphemism for “sparse crumbs from the groaning tables of the super-rich” .

        Well, after 30 years of this experiment, even the IMF itself has judged Neo-liberalism a failure for causing several catastrophes which have left the global economy crippled, weakened and moribund—but that’s beside my point.

        My point is that politicians led that transformation, which was accomplished in, oh, under 30 years. The politicians “sold” it to the people, and the hard-sell worked. That’s a huge negative example, of course, but the hard-sell can easily be the positive one that is needed now: a transformation of the global economic and energy systems for the sake of the planet and our children’s future, etc etc.

        So yes, our political leaders DO have huge power to influence public opinion and to steer the course of public action. They can’t “solve” climate change, but as a group of people, our political leaders are better placed than anyone else to direct and to organise the response of their nations to this crisis (eg, Norway, Netherlands, Scotland, etc).

        Reply
        • mulga mumblebrain

           /  October 7, 2016

          I’m afraid, Cate, that ‘neo-liberalism’ has been a smashing (as in ‘smash and grab’) success, for those who matter, and it’s not going anywhere, until it finally collapses, probably into a big war. It has increased poverty, inequality, elite wealth and power, and destroyed all collective, societal, provision, in the orgy of kleptomania euphemised as ‘privatisations’. It has forced, by black-mail, economic warfare and outright aggression and mass destruction, the world to become like the USA, just as the USA collapses under debt, inequality, stagnant wages and falling household wealth and vast Imperial over-reach. Just now the parasites and their political employees are pretending to have learned the lessons, which is what the Obama long-con was all about, but these leopards never will and never can change their spots.

      • John S

         /  October 7, 2016

        Politician’s job description – Leadership. Yes we are all involved, but we can’t all speak at once – that is what leaders are for.

        Also conveniently overlooked, politicians are elected to represent the human beings of an electorate, not the commercial beings.

        Generalizing, neo-lib has politicians allowing themselves to be conned and emasculated. Too lazy to think, too greedy to care, too cowardly to act. Too compromised to do their job.(Apologies to Sen Warren)

        Reply
        • Cate

           /  October 7, 2016

          Exactly, John S, and we little people are complicit and culpable to the degree we buy into this conning and emasculation of political power at the hands of corporations.

          In giving up on our political leaders (instead of compelling them to do what we elected them for), we play the game, when we should be overturning the table.

        • Marcusblanc

           /  October 7, 2016

          Generally agree with the identification of neo-liberalism as a key factor in our slow response to CC. The subject messes with their model something rotten. I would say its more like 40 years of dominance, and I tend to think of this time as a multi-stage counter-revolution against the post-war Keynesian consensus.

          The post-war period was a massive success economically, but somehow the old guard managed to wrestle back control (in the 70’s really), for the first time since the 30’s. Naomi Klien’s book Shock Doctrine is the most convincing work I have read on how they did it.

          Neo-liberalism is a busted flush, but turning the ship round won’t be easy. It was only WW2 that really tamed the beast last time.

    • coloradobob

       /  October 7, 2016

      Good, and as Greg has been pointing out their pro developer insurance scam is about to crash as well. And while I’m at it . this beach replenishment thread mill as well . Where we as a country pay to keep sand in front of multi million dollar homes.
      Corporate Vampires
      Matthew may will drive steak the that set of vipers as well.

      Reply
  14. coloradobob

     /  October 7, 2016

    37 inches of rain reported on the Berry Islands. #Hurricane #Matthew #wunderground https://goo.gl/RcTvRb

    It’s really hard to make money when 37 inches of rain falls on your business.

    Reply
  15. coloradobob

     /  October 7, 2016

    “Get ready little lady, hell is coming to breakfast”

    Lone Wati

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  October 7, 2016

      Watch hell from the Cape Canaveral port
      http://www.portcanaveralwebcam.com/

      Reply
    • George W. Hayduke

       /  October 7, 2016

      Now remember, things look bad and it looks like you’re not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean. I mean plumb, mad-dog mean. ‘Cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live nor win. That’s just the way it is.

      -Josey Wales

      Reply
  16. coloradobob

     /  October 7, 2016

    Trump To Dying People: Stick Around Long Enough To Vote For Me
    “I say kiddingly, but I mean it.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-terminally-ill_us_57f5c444e4b0b7aafe0bf666

    Reply
  17. Greg

     /  October 7, 2016

    Reply
  18. 03:22 UTC

    Reply
  19. Daddy, tell me again about 2016? Please? How in October there were only two hurricanes trying to hit Florida at the same time?

    You know, before that nasty methane? And CO2 was only at 400?

    And Matthew only hit Florida twice?

    Thanks Daddy, I can go to sleep now.

    If that poopy wind would just stop trying to take the roof off, I’d sleep better though.

    Reply
  20. Reply
  21. Cate

     /  October 7, 2016

    A bit OT but we have been talking quite a bit about the election, so—scroll down for the videos on this site. I haven’t looked at them all but….

    DO NOT MISS the one with Big Ben in the background!! British guy giving the view from the UK.

    Priceless. 🙂

    http://savetheday.vote/

    Reply
  22. Cate

     /  October 7, 2016

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/06/climate-change-infrastructure-coal-plants-green-investment

    “A gigantic overhaul of the world’s buildings, public transport and energy infrastructure costing trillions of dollars is required if dangerous climate change is to be avoided, according to a major new report….
    The financial system will need to be adjusted to make this change, the report finds. Subsidies to fossil fuels, currently totaling about $550bn a year, will need to be eliminated; better planning of projects will be required; and tools such as green bonds and green investment banking will need to be deployed…”

    Reply
  23. Greg

     /  October 7, 2016

    For storm chasers this guy is live and on the Florida coast. Been doing this kind of stuff for a long time:
    https://www.periscope.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1YqGoXlmnwzJv?

    Reply
  24. 12:30 UTC

    Reply
    • Curious of undersea land contours vis-a-vis water depth in the steering this storm. Add water/air temps/wave heights.

      Reply
  25. OT but significant:

    NASA: Megadrought Lasting Decades Is 99% Certain in American Southwest

    A study released in Science Advances Wednesday finds strong evidence for severe, long-term droughts afflicting the American Southwest, driven by climate change. A megadrought lasting decades is 99 percent certain to hit the region this century, said scientists from Cornell University, the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

    “Historically, megadroughts were extremely rare phenomena occurring only once or twice per millennium,” the report states. “According to our analysis of modeled responses to increased GHGs, these events could become commonplace if climate change goes unabated.”
    http://www.ecowatch.com/megadroughts-2031955357.html

    Reply
    • Cate

       /  October 7, 2016

      I just watched a CBC-TV report on this. The words “climate change” were never uttered, by either the reporter or the people interviewed. The reporter did mention in passing that some think that “greenhouse gases may be a factor….”

      The MSM Cone of Silence continues.

      Reply
  26. #matthew #nicole:

    13:01 UTC

    Reply
    • – Philip Klotzbach Verified account ‏@philklotzbach 10h10 hours ago Kailua, HI

      2 hurricanes in Atlantic have winds >= 105 mph (#Matthew and #Nicole). This is the latest in the calendar year this has occurred on record

      – Tom Niziol Verified account ‏@TomNiziol 2h2 hours ago

      Larger scale view showing #Matthew and #Nicole, two #hurricanes with >= 100mph winds.

      Reply
  27. Greg

     /  October 7, 2016

    The photographer Lorenzo Montezemolo reminds me that the atmosphere behaves like a liquid. Fog over San Francisco

    Reply
  28. Greg

     /  October 7, 2016

    Florida, Georgia, South Carolina may, or may not, have iconic images from Matthew but Haiti sure does. Will need help, a lot of it.

    Reply
  29. Greg

     /  October 7, 2016

    Storm surge showing itself in N. Florida. This is river surge

    Reply
  30. John McCormick

     /  October 7, 2016

    National Weather Service latest image of Matthew showed the outer bands 4 miles off shore at Daytona but the track took a slight 30 deg turn west. That would change the longer track closer to the shore.

    This could be a $50 billion disaster with very long economic implications for the East coast.

    The real cost of a warming world is warmer oceans.

    Responsible adults have to prepare our children for a warmer world and do what it takes to prepare them.

    Reply
  31. Jacque

     /  October 7, 2016

    Commentor to Krugman’s NY Times column (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/07/opinion/what-about-the-planet.html?action=click&contentCollection=Opinion&module=Trending&version=Full&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article) this morning: zb bc 5 hours ago:

    “Trump and the rest of the rightwing are not climate change deniers because they don’t believe in climate change but rather because it forms a part of a larger narrative of too much government regulation that is at the core of their very reason to exist that “government is the problem”.

    If they actually accepted Climate change as real (as with generally all forms of pollution) they would also have to accept that government regulation is necessary and beneficial (at least under certain significant circumstances) and that would destroy their fundamental anti-government appeal to voters. It would be like telling Christians that Christ never existed or Muslims that Mohamad never existed. To accept such notions is to say that everything about your religion and everything you ever believed in was based on a lie.

    For the rightwing to accept climate change, and thus the need for massive government regulation and intervention, is to accept that the foundation of their political philosophy – as Reagan put it, “Government is not a solution to our problem. Government is the problem.” – is a complete lie.”

    Reply
    • Yes, admitting error is hard, and hits at a person’s self image

      For people who cannot admit error, the thought that they could be wrong creates cognitive dissonance, I think. Then, they sometimes have to seek out and destroy the source of the cognitive dissonance, I think.

      Part of Trump’s appeal is that he tells his followers what they want to hear- that they are smart, and right about their fundamental beliefs in American exceptionalism, the superiority of the white race, and the belief that government is bad.

      To return a system controlled by feedback to a state of control, an appropriate response to true information about that system is required. If the system is not inherently stable, or has become destabilized, only feedback of true information via an appropriate response can restore stability most of the time, I think.

      We’re very far from that appropriate response to climate change right now.

      The Nazis also had a widespread flight from reality – and look what it got them, and got the rest of the world. But at least the damage they could do with the technology they had was limited.

      Reply
      • I think that Henry Kissinger was the likely source of the Joe Scarborough story that Trump had asked a senior foreign policy advisor three times in an hour interview about nuclear weapons, saying at one point “if we have them why can’t we use them”. Kissinger routinely meets with new Presidential candidates for this foreign policy briefing, and he met with
        Trump. Trump claimed after the briefing that Kissinger agreed with him, but Kissinger was very quick to respond that he did not.

        http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/henry-kissinger-refutes-donald-trump-claim/2016/05/27/id/731203/

        The United States truly has the capability to destroy most of the humans on the planet.. Now we are now pondering the question of whether we should give that power to a clever but ignorant man incapable of admitting error, in a state of cognitive dissonance, who may decide that to defend his self-image he has to seek out and destroy the source of the cognitive dissonance.

        Kissinger says of Trump – “one-shot solutions are probably not possible” to foreign policy problems. What one-shot solutions? Nuclear war?

        Reply
        • Greg

           /  October 7, 2016

          Trump knows all about one-shot and is an expert on women too! not

        • Greg

           /  October 8, 2016

          Wow, I posted this before today’s Trumpian implosion!

        • Greg

           /  October 8, 2016

          Bet he wished his microphone wasn’t working that day!

        • I’m probably speculating way too much about this briefing. We know that Trump met with Kissinger, and months later we know that General Michael Hayden- an ex-CIA director- appeared on the Joe Scarbough show. Haden claimed that there had been a briefing with a senior foreign policy expert of international stature, in which nuclear weapons were mentioned three times, etc, and the question “if we have them [nuclear weapons] why can’t we use them?” was supposedly asked by Trump. Interestingly enough, Joe Scarbough’s co-host is Maya Brzezinski, Zbigniew Brzezinski’s daughter. Both Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski are associated with the Rockefellers – Kissinger was Nelson Rockefeller’s favorite foreign policy guru, while Zbigniew Brzezinski is David Rockefeller’s favorite foreign policy guru. Kissinger has been both Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, and Brzezinski was Jimmy Carter’s National Security Advisor. Brzezinski also ran the Trilateral Commission for David Rockefeller, for quite a few years.

          Trump has said similar things openly in the past, and there are videos of him saying similar things:

          https://thinkprogress.org/9-terrifying-things-donald-trump-has-publicly-said-about-nuclear-weapons-99f6290bc32a#.dce93nkpb

          This briefing by Kissinger has become a ritual- one that all Presidential candidates, i think, have endured for the last few decades.

          In my speculations, I think of it as a job interview, with Kissinger as the agent of our American Oligarchy interviewing candidates for President of the United States.

          I speculate that Trump failed, big time, and that the Oligarchy now fears Trump as a loose cannon. As controllers of a few percent of the earth’s industrial wealth, they probably don’t want some dumb ass of Trumpian proportions blowing it up with nuclear weapons, is my guess.

          So, this is speculation built upon speculation, and take it for what it is worth.

        • Katrina Pierson, one of Trump’s inner circle of surrogates, has said “What good does it do to have a good nuclear triad if you’re afraid to use it?”, on the O’Reilly Factor.

          https://thinkprogress.org/trump-spokesperson-why-have-nuclear-weapons-if-youre-afraid-to-use-them-93326ed80697#.2or1dl15h

          “Pierson went on to suggest that while other Republican candidates may threaten war, Trump would actually be willing to use the the nuclear triad to fix problems around the world. “That’s where we are today,” she said. “We need to be discussing how we fix their problems, not just complaining and name-calling about who started this and who started that.”””

          Yes, there is nothing like the use of nuclear weapons wielded by a man with problems perceiving reality to solve other countries’ problems. Literally, there’s nothing like that – so far.

          I don’t think Trump inner circle Katrina Pierson made this all up by herself, of course.

          She must be getting it from Trump.

          Trump is a basket case of deplorable ideas, exaggerations, untruths, and attitudes, I think, including probably the most important deplorable idea of all – that man made climate change is a “hoax”.

          Correction – Mika Brzezinski, daughter of Zbigniew Brzezinski, is Joe Scarborough’s co-host, not “Maya” Brzezinski.

  32. Greg

     /  October 7, 2016

    Stork was smart enough to hop into a men’s room in St. Augustine Florida. People need to get a hint.

    Reply
  33. Here we go again; another monster storm that’s going to do a great amount of damage and costs will run in the billions. Individuals can only do so much for the environment, the leadership has to step up to the plate and really do something to help mitigate the disaster unfolding before us. Someone has to help change the way we all conduct business, the sooner the better or it really be too late. Author Timothy Morton with his hyperobject view is a good way to see the global warming that we are all immersed in. Recommended reading; ‘Hyperobjects’: Philosophy and Ecology after the End of the World, by Timothy Morton. Very revealing what mankind is facing with the real possibility of an extinction level event unfolding slowly before us. Because humans are short sighted these long term events seem to be in the hazy distant future but they are here now. I do wish all the people affected by this monster storm make it out alive because that’s what really matters in the short term and lives are worth saving after all.

    Reply
  34. Reply
  35. Jacksonville Beach — Rivers of surge

    Reply
  36. Reply
  37. Greg

     /  October 7, 2016

    Haiti death toll steadily rising. Over 800 now and Cholera a major concern:

    Reply
  38. Cate: …the higher up the power pyramid one is, the far-more-harsh the penalties should be. Like cops who murder unarmed citizens, politicians and the elite leisure class wealthy who own them ought to have their feet held to a fire for a much higher standard of conduct. But there doesn’t seem to be any way of holding any of them accountable. When their corporations murder and cheat and lie all that happens is the ‘corporation’ pays a fine which is then deductible from taxes. Which they don’t much pay anyway.

    ALL elected federal politicians instantly become members of the economic 1% the moment they get into office. What’s a first year congresscritter base pay now; $175,000 a year and full medical for life? When 80% of the population of this country makes less than $50k, just who does one expect they are representing?

    The prisons aren’t full of neo-liberal neocons, bankers, CEOs of corporations, because their lobbyists write the laws and their politicians pass them. Corporatism is Fascism.

    232 Republican neoliberal wealthy executives control the information diet of 277 million US citizens. They operate six corporations that own it all: GE, Newscorp, Disney, Viacom, Time Warner, and CBS. Pravda is not just a newspaper out of the old Soviet Union.

    I may have already posted this before but I think it is appropriate today:

    Kurt Vonnegut’s 1988 Letter to the Future More Relevant Today Than Ever Before

    http://www.truth-out.org/buzzflash/commentary/kurt-vonnegut-s-1988-letter-to-the-future-more-relevant-today-than-ever-before

    Article reprinted with permission from EcoWatch

    Leland:

    Disclosure: I am related to H. Kissinger the War Criminal through my father’s adoption in 1932 by Anne Kissinger-Morgan (granny K). I have a picture of him hugging my granny’s two sisters at a large family gathering in the early 70s. Made me sick to see it when I found it in her things after she died. Creep’d me out it did! We fought Nixon, and got the neocon Reagan, 2 Bush neocons, a Clinton neocon, and an Obama neocon but at least he won a Nobel Peace Prize before he started drone bombing more countries, eh?

    That said, anybody that listens to anything this monster says, or asks that butcher psychopath any kind of question, doesn’t belong anywhere near a leadership position in any form of government. Not even dog catcher. Both candidates in other words. Now we have another Clinton who considers H. Kissinger a ‘friend’ and a nutcase neoliberal rightwinger who gets ‘briefed’ by H.K.

    Fifty years of madness and he hasn’t been stopped yet. He should have been indicted like Pinochet… The only people in prison are the poor.

    Reply
    • Oh, I have to agree about Kissinger. What scares me is that Kissinger is relatively sane- compared to Trump. Trump is a whole magnitude of crazy beyond Kissinger, I think.

      Reply
  39. Greg

     /  October 7, 2016

    St. Augustine storm surge:

    Reply
  40. One more rant:

    On Brazil’s neo-liberal right wing coup: IN TEMER’s own words:

    Safe with ‘Oligarchs and Imperialists’ in US, Brazil’s New President Admits Coup Plot

    Ousted President Dilma Rousseff wouldn’t enact austerity roadmap, so “a process was established which culminated with me being installed as president of the republic,” Temer says.

    http://www.commondreams.org/news/2016/09/23/safe-oligarchs-and-imperialists-us-brazils-new-president-admits-coup-plot

    Reply
    • I responded this, earlier, with a hot-headed comment, that was automatically blocked by moderation (heavens, how can this site moderation work so well?! Seriously, it´s uncanny!). If possible, Robert, delete the earlier comment, please, it was far harsher than it should be.

      This one is the last comment I´ll make in this situation, as this is far enough off-topic and I believe that we´ve reached the point, by your use of the word “rant” and by my observation of my emotions, where discussion is only going to become fighting.

      I´ll leave a link here, explaining again the situation of Brasil. It requires reading in Portuguese, but is much better written than what I´d be able to achieve right now, and it´s author, Fernando Gabeira, has much better references of being a leftist than I or Dilma, have:
      http://veja.abril.com.br/blog/augusto-nunes/opiniao-2/fernando-gabeira-votando-e-aprendendo-a-votar/

      Reply
  41. Greg

     /  October 7, 2016

    Why oh why do we invest in this obviously obsolete infrastructure?

    Reply
  42. Greg

     /  October 7, 2016

    Note the blocking high as Matthew and Nicole high five in the latest models

    Reply
    • wili

       /  October 7, 2016

      Any chance they could fuse together into some kind of super storm?

      Reply
      • Greg

         /  October 8, 2016

        Wili, see “The Fujiwhara effect, sometimes referred to as Fujiwara interaction or binary interaction, is when two nearby cyclonic vortices orbit each other and close the distance between the circulations of their corresponding low-pressure areas….”
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

        Reply
      • Hi wili-

        This Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) model last night had Matthew and Nicole hooking up and forming a big storm that crossed the Atlantic from West to East, gathering strength, losing strength, and then impacting Southern Europe.

        Today it has Matthew, much weakened, being consumed by Nicole and creating a big storm that gets shunted up into Newfoundland by a big ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic, before going south around that high pressure ridge and creating a gaggle of storms that threaten Europe when the simulation ends 10 days out.

        The impression I get watching the models is that the sensitive dependence of future events on the exact path of Matthew creates chaos, with weather models diverging wildly.

        Reply
  43. Greg

     /  October 7, 2016

    Showing just how political the decline of the U.S. coal industry has become, Appalachia’s infamous imprisoned coal baron just claimed he’s a “political prisoner.”
    http://fortune.com/2016/10/05/don-blankenship-political-prisoner/

    Reply
  44. Greg

     /  October 7, 2016

    Add to firsts. Flash flood emergency from storm surge:

    Reply
  45. Greg

     /  October 7, 2016

    Reply
  46. Andy_in_SD

     /  October 8, 2016

    I have a question, perhaps someone can answer.

    Tropical storms and cyclones (hurricanes) feed off of warm/hot water. Do they draw the heat out of the water, into the atmosphere and contribute to atmospheric temp rises? And if so, has this been quantified?

    Thinking not as much Atlantic as that is quiet compared to the Pacific which is disgorging cyclones at an epic rate.

    Reply
  47. Andy_in_SD

     /  October 8, 2016

    Wanted to share this, another pretty nice tool!

    https://www.ventusky.com/

    Reply
  48. John Peter

     /  October 8, 2016

    NASA on how Matthew works. It was good for me.😀

    Reply
  49. George W. Hayduke

     /  October 8, 2016

    Footage of the storm surge in Jacksonville.

    Reply
  50. Share some good news from the PacNW amidst all this doom and gloom: we beat the suckers for now…

    Dirty and Deadly Oil Train Projects Meet Defeat in California and Washington

    ‘The American people have spoken: They do not want dirty and dangerous fossil fuel projects that will threaten their communities, their clean air and water, and the climate’

    http://commondreams.org/news/2016/10/07/dirty-and-deadly-oil-train-projects-meet-defeat-california-and-washington

    In what environmentalists described as a “historic victory,” two separate proposed oil train facilities in Washington and California were roundly defeated this week.

    Reply
  51. Greg

     /  October 8, 2016

    Next time you argue with someone regarding big government and taxes. Tell me this:

    Reply
  52. Greg

     /  October 8, 2016

    Next week Pacific Northwest

    Reply
  53. coloradobob

     /  October 8, 2016

    Paul Krugman is calling on moderators of the two remaining presidential debates to press the candidates on global warming.

    In his Friday column in The New York Times, the Nobel prize-winning economist said climate change “should be a central issue in this campaign” and failing to push the issue would be “criminally irresponsible.”

    “It’s time to end the blackout on climate change as an issue,” Krugman wrote. “It needs to be front and center — and questions must be accompanied by real-time fact-checking, not relegated to the limbo of he-said-she-said, because this is one of the issues where the truth often gets lost in a blizzard of lies.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/krugman-climate-change-presidential-debate_us_57f7e704e4b068ecb5de12cd

    Reply
    • Josh

       /  October 8, 2016

      Real-time fact checking for political debates – now there’s a good idea! We could’ve done with that over here for Brexit…

      Reply
  54. coloradobob

     /  October 8, 2016

    New study shows that the speed of climate change is now much too great for grassland species of vital food crops to adapt and survive.

    LONDON, 5 October, 2016 – Climate change is happening faster than many species can adapt to − and climate is changing between 3,000 and 20,000 times faster than many grassland species can respond.

    Since the grass family includes wheat, corn, rice, sorghum, oats, rye, barley and many other plants that underwrite human survival, this is serious news.

    Although the new research by scientists in the US does not directly address the future of food in a globally warming world, the researchers say their finding has “troubling” implications.

    http://climatenewsnetwork.net/climate-change-fast-crops-adapt/

    Reply
  55. Abel Adamski

     /  October 8, 2016

    Of course humans are special, or are they. ?

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-07/apes-can-recognise-when-somone-elses-beilefs-are-wrong/7912064

    Apes share cognitive ability of humans’ to recognise perspective of others

    Scientists using homemade videos featuring a person in a King Kong costume have documented a remarkable cognitive skill shared by chimpanzees, bonobos and orangutans: the human-like ability to recognise when someone else’s beliefs are wrong.

    The ability to think about others’ thoughts and emotions is at the heart of so much of human social behaviour, including our unique forms of communication, cooperation and culture, study co-leader Christopher Krupenye said.

    At the core of this ability is understanding that others’ actions are guided not necessarily by reality but by their beliefs about reality, even when false, added Dr Krupenye, a comparative psychologist at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Germany who worked on the study, published in the journal Science, at Duke University.

    Previous research has showed that apes can reason about others’ goals and intentions, know what others can see, and understand what others know based on what those others have seen.

    Maybe they are smarter than the average Conservative, well at least a Trumper

    Reply
  56. Shawn Redmond

     /  October 8, 2016

    OT but I’ve a question; why would groups like Sierra Club not back this? On the basis it’s not enough!? Small piece of pie is better than no pie.
    “In a move that came as a surprise to many, long-standing and well-respected groups like the Washington Environmental Council and the Sierra Club chose not to support the bill. The initiative, they argue, doesn’t go far enough to protect the communities most at risk from the impacts of climate change and environmental pollution, nor does it help spur the kind of massive reorganizing of energy and transportation infrastructure needed to fight climate change. The nation’s most aggressive price on carbon, they argue, simply isn’t enough.”
    https://thinkprogress.org/washington-carbon-tax-campaign-7ce90a306e7f#.2eqqego1z

    Reply
    • June

       /  October 8, 2016

      That was my reaction too. As they say, don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good. The hardest part is getting something passed. After that, keep working to strengthen it…similar to Paris Agreement.

      Reply
      • Shawn Redmond

         /  October 8, 2016

        You have to wonder what the driving force really is. They start to get close to something than the target moves. It makes one start to question who’s funding this shit show??? If a small step toward a common goal is not acceptable to the parties involved than maybe some of the parties are not sincere. Having been involved in a major PCB clean up at the head waters of my local river, that at the time was considered one of the top three or four toxic sites in Canada, along with the Sydney tar ponds and the ongoing debacle of Uranium City, we achieved a clean bill of health for the river and its head waters. Now I hear different government departments and community groups site the PCB problem as a reason for this or that. It leaves a bad taste in your mouth and a complete lack of trust/faith in anything. Are hard work with the government at the time isn’t even noted. Many hours by local volunteers and paid government science people is completely washed away. Never mentioned. It tends to make one more than a little cynical and less than hopeful that we can ever do what needs to be done. At this point I’m thinking that hospice earth may be a long shot. But ever hopeful. Hope dies second last. You go out in despair.

        Reply
        • Shawn Redmond

           /  October 8, 2016

          That should read ” our hard work” I hate this machine and myself at times.

        • mulga mumblebrain

           /  October 8, 2016

          Shawn, if you read reports of the Gilens and Page study, which found that in the USA (and it is the same everywhere else under capitalism)the political stooge class govern almost entirely (c.97% of the effort) for the oligarchy, the rich owners of society, and hardly at all for ‘little people’ ie everybody else, like you and me, you will no doubt not be surprised. It is, after all, ‘the bleedin’ obvious’. Indeed I would bet that you and your colleagues who did that great work are on list of ‘potential trouble-makers’ somewhere, because the rulers hate any peasant that disobeys the Prime Instructions for ‘the Rabble’-consume, be silent, then die.

      • mulga mumblebrain

         /  October 8, 2016

        Unfortunately, June, moving the antimacassars on the deck-chairs on ‘Titanic’ around, when the chairs are sliding across the deck as the ship lurches upwards just before its plunge into the depths, ain’t gonna hack it. At the moment, half-measures are no measures at all. And likely to be reversed by the next brain-dead and omnicidal denialist regime.

        Reply
  57. 12:14 UTC
    Charleston, SC

    Reply
  58. Cate

     /  October 8, 2016

    I’m sure one of us scribblers posted a link to a story on this paper in the last day or two, but I can’t find it. This is the link to the paper, published in Nature.

    Subject: methane emissions.

    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v538/n7623/full/nature19797.html

    EDITOR SUMMARY: “Stefan Schwietzke et al. re-evaluate the global methane budget and the contribution of the fossil fuel industry to methane emissions on the basis of long-term global methane and methane carbon isotope records. They find that total fossil fuel methane emissions (fossil fuel industry plus natural geological methane seepage) are not increasing over time, but are 60–110 per cent greater than was previously thought. They also conclude that methane emissions from natural gas, oil and coal production and their usage are 20–60 per cent greater than inventories and that methane emissions from natural gas as a fraction of production have declined from about 8 per cent to 2 per cent over the past three decades.”

    Reply
    • Shawn Redmond

       /  October 8, 2016

      “Methane has the second-largest global radiative forcing impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gases after carbon dioxide,”
      What about water vapour?

      Reply
      • Griffin

         /  October 9, 2016

        Water vapor is not an anthropogenic emission. At least not in sufficient quantity to count!

        Reply
        • Shawn Redmond

           /  October 9, 2016

          Griffin as I understand it water vapour has the strongest feed back. Warming by the anthropogenic gases cause more water vapour. If I give my friend a gun to protect him self and he murders someone I’m implicated in the murder. Guilt by association. The percentages by whom matter not, it’s the combined effect that matters.These nuances seemed to be missed by the studies. It’s the big picture that matters and the dots are not being connected. To say that emissions are higher than previously thought but the emissions from ff industry have declined is akin to saying the water in the basement from the broken pipe doesn’t matter because the rising sea level will fill the basement anyway, in about five decades!

        • Isn’t this excess ‘water vapour’ the result of fossil fuel created/released carbon?

        • Griffin

           /  October 10, 2016

          I didn’t mean to imply that water vapor is not a feedback. I should have clarified that I was thinking that they were making the distinction between actual FF emissions and natural processes. It was just a case of semantics.
          DT, I see your point. If AGW has raised the temp and led to an increase in water vapor, does it not mean that water vapor is also an emission?
          It is an interesting thought.

  59. Note: Have to wonder if upcoming ‘de-bate’ possible talk of CC will be hampered by the news of Trump’s gutter talk of his ugly true to character — ‘manliness’ towards women.

    Reply
  60. Algae

    Algae blooms are forcing the closure of shellfish beds around New England, including most of Narragansett Bay in Rhode Island and much of the coast of Maine.

    It’s the first time harmful algae has prompted a shellfishing closure in Rhode Island, the state Department of Environmental Management said Friday.

    Shellfish dealers in Rhode Island have been asked to stop selling their inventory, and consumers have been asked not to eat the shellfish until tests come back to determine whether the contamination has gotten into the meat, a state health department official said. No illnesses had been reported Friday.

    The Portland Press Herald reports high levels of the toxin domoic acid have been detected in shellfish in Maine, leading to a recall of about five tons of mussels and clams.

    “A closure for this toxin in eastern Maine is unprecedented, that is not anything anyone has ever seen,” Darcie Couture, a Brunswick marine scientist and former head of the state’s marine biotoxin program, told the newspaper. “No one on this coast is that experienced with a domoic acid event,” Couture said. “I don’t think it is sinking in how serious this is.”
    http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/algae-forces-shellfishing-ban-narragansett-bay-42643142

    Reply
  61. Ailsa

     /  October 8, 2016

    I’m wondering, what would a President Pence’s climate stance be?

    Reply
    • I wouldn’t expect anything good. He has called it a hoax in the past, and is now backing slightly away from that position. I’d expect him to do the absolute minimum that is politically feasible, meanwhile appointing, for example, a right-wing judge to the Supreme Court who could help torpedo the Clean Power Plan.

      Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  October 8, 2016

      Why, to fight the resistance to the evil ‘War on Coal’, of course. The whacker mentioned it a number of times the other day. His ‘backing away’ from denialist absolutism will be a ploy, before the election. These creatures are nothing if not fanatical, and being very stupid and ignorant, a requirement for hard Rightwing politics (even if you have to feign it, which I don’t think he does)will keep destroying the planet’s habitability for our species until the bitter bitten, end.

      Reply
  62. To Robert Scribbler
    And everyone else perhaps
    I just came across this on G+ : https://thehoboscientist.wordpress.com/2016/10/08/what-the-gbrmpa-chair-did-not-say-about-my-coral-bleaching-article/
    I think it’s worth reading, sharing and perhaps writing about this.
    Thank you everyone

    Jack

    Reply
    • Thanks for the article, Jack, it´s a good example of how the machine of disinformation is working. A random comment citing an specialist´s words that have never been uttered sheds doubt all over important fieldwork. Rinse & repeat, and the basics of internet trolling for climate denial are clear.

      Reply
  63. Greg

     /  October 8, 2016

    Appears that Matthew is finishing out with historic flooding event in the Carolinas today:

    Reply
  64. Cate

     /  October 8, 2016

    Short video published on 1 July 2016 of Stefan Rahmstorf, speaking about the North Atlantic cold blob, aka the cool pool, and possible effects on the AMOC.

    Dr Rahmstorf is presenting a talk on his findings at a conference in Reykavik.

    Reply
  65. Greg

     /  October 8, 2016

    Reply
  66. Shawn Redmond

     /  October 8, 2016

    A little bit more reason for despair ( as if it were needed).”From my perspective, we are still at risk of having another stock potentially go into collapse, similar to what happened to the [Northern] cod,” said Julie Gelfand, federal commissioner of the environment and sustainable development, who released the audit this week.
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/dfo-federal-audit-report-fish-stocks-collapse-1.3793197

    Reply
    • Shawn Redmond

       /  October 8, 2016

      It just sucks that Limits To Growth is playing out almost as World3 predicted and ACD is one hundred years early.

      Reply
      • mulga mumblebrain

         /  October 8, 2016

        ‘Limits to Growth’ has proved remarkably accurate, particularly as pertains to the pollution effects of our enforced neoplastic obsession with ‘Growth’. However, as far as the Rightwing MSM (all we have) here in Australia are concerned, it’s a laughably failed and flawed attempt by Communist/Green ‘water-melons’ to undermine ‘our way of life’. The Murdoch MSM cancer, naturally, leads the way in the abuse and vilification, but overall, it is simply buried, to be disinterred only to give Rightwing imbeciles yelping practise-as if they needed any more. Just say or write ‘Club of Rome’, and they are there, barking and slobbering enough to make Professor Pavlov glow with happiness.

        Reply
        • Shawn Redmond

           /  October 8, 2016

          Yes Mulga it is more than a little unnerving. When I first read LTG in the early eighties I had the response ” surely we’ll not let it get to that “. Then the thirty year update came out and I thought ” holy shit we’re screwed”. And now ACD is early to the party, fashionably late would have helped. One mess at a time if you please.

  67. Greg

     /  October 8, 2016

    Oh the symbolism and irony. Hit by a car. He’s going to be alright officials say

    Reply
  68. Reply
  69. ‘Pier today — gone tomorrow…

    Reply
  70. Reply
  71. Ed Piotrowski ‏@EdPiotrowski 3h3 hours ago

    Main Street in North Myrtle Beach underwater. This is from our SkyCam on OD Resort #scwx

    Reply
    • Cody Fields ‏@wxtrackercody 1h1 hour ago

      The water level here in Wilmington, NC has reached 8.16ft, eclipsing the all-time record set by Hurricane Hazel in 1954 (8.15ft). #Matthew

      Reply
      • – Nate Johnson Verified account ‏@nsj 1h1 hour ago

        #Matthew’s surge has pushed water in over 40-50 feet of beach at Carolina Beach. (H/T my brother)

        – NWS Wilmington NC Verified account ‏@NWSWilmingtonNC 54m54 minutes ago

        NWS Wilmington NC Retweeted Horry County EMD

        Very serious flooding in Horry County. Please stay home. Do not put yourself or your loved ones at risk! #Matthew

        – Marshall Shepherd Verified account ‏@DrShepherd2013 1m1 minute ago

        I can’t believe I just watched commentators question the decision to play the UF vs LSU game. It was actually nauseating..

        – SC Consumer Affairs Verified account ‏@SCDCA 3m3 minutes ago

        #Scams never sleep! Don’t fall for power outage #phishing emails going around. #bewareandshare #matthew #sctweets

        – Darryl Mitchell ‏@darrmit 6m6 minutes ago

        It really can’t be overstated how bad it is in Eastern NC. I’ve never seen it like this. Much worse than Floyd. #Matthew

        – Chris Bianchi ‏@BianchiWeather 2m2 minutes ago

        Chris Bianchi Retweeted NCDOT I-95 Traffic

        I-95 now closed in southern North Carolina in both directions due to #Matthew flooding.

        Reply
  72. Reply
  73. coloradobob

     /  October 9, 2016

    A note from Jeff Masters: For over ten years, I’ve been a big booster of and donor to the Lambi Fund of Haiti, which is very active in disaster relief and disaster prevention, including promotion of reforestation efforts, use of alternative fuels, and infrastructure improvements at a grass-roots level to help avert future flood disasters.

    Hear, hear.

    One other group is ShelterBox………………. To support the short term relief.

    There is no FEMA coming in Haiti. They just have the clothes on their backs.

    Reply
  74. Cate

     /  October 9, 2016

    Well, winter *was* coming—-but now it appears to be stuck….

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

    Reply
  75. 02:30 UTC

    – Tim Buckley Verified account ‏@TimBuckleyWX 58m58 minutes ago Oak Island, NC

    Hearing over 400 people rescued in Fayetteville. STAY HOME!

    – Scott Sharpe Verified account ‏@ssharpe 56m56 minutes ago

    A #rescue by two #firedepartment swift water teams near #Raleigh

    Reply
  76. Reply
    • Whachamacallit

       /  October 9, 2016

      Living around there, that doesn’t surprise me. September has been abnormally warm, and it seems that Fall arrived a week ago. The temperatures aren’t quite as hot as Fall of 2015 (this is not an scientifically-rigorous statement btw), but it still strangely warm compared to the years in my childhood.

      Reply
      • ‘Strangely warm ‘ is an accurate ‘scientifically-rigorous’ observation — in my books.
        And is one that oft alluded to in a plethora of sci journals.🙂

        Reply
      • Andy_in_SD

         /  October 9, 2016

        Fall 2015 was El Nino, so 2016 should be roughly closer to the new norm to go by.

        Reply
        • Greg

           /  October 9, 2016

          15 years ago September 11th was the most crisp clear blue sky ending the haze of summer, signaling Fall had arrived. This year it was today, October 08, a month later.

        • Greg, remember too that the crisp blue skies in the days after the attacks on the WTC and Pentagon were the absence of civil and commercial aviation filling the skies.

        • mulga mumblebrain

           /  October 9, 2016

          Whereupon, dt, without the albedo of the high con-trail clouds, temperatures in the USA jumped one degree Celsius, emphasing just how stuffed we are. Without the ‘global dimming’ of air traffic con-trails and the particulate smog from east and south Asia, we’d be over two degrees Celsius already.

  77. coloradobob

     /  October 9, 2016

    When the great Earthquake hit Haiti in 2010, I wanted to help. But I could only give 5 dollars. But I was part of a rich online village, so I set about getting their 5 dollars as well. This principal has only grown, so once again Haiti needs our 5 dollars.

    ShelterBox

    This one of the great ideas man has come up with to help people who have nothing, after their world has been wiped away.

    Reply
  78. coloradobob

     /  October 9, 2016

    Remember , Hell is coming to breakfast.

    Reply
  79. 07:55 UTC

    Reply
  80. Reply
    • Griffin

       /  October 9, 2016

      I would respectfully say that this is one comment that I feel did not need to be posted.
      We all hate Trump. There is simply no need to repeat anything that comes from the sewer of his mouth. Especially such abhorrent vulgarity.

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  October 10, 2016

        dt, re the Mike Dross tweet,–point taken and fair enough. I did not mean to dismiss his response as invalid.

        I wished to question the implication I took from the tweet (never saw this before, never see it again) that this storm was an isolated event, a freak of nature. I intended to highlight, by comparison, JH’s view that we can expect storms just like this, and many more of them, and much bigger ones.

        Reply
        • Cate, I know what you mean.
          Consider language that can simplify or expand to infinity, — when faced with new/unprecedented extremes:

          “Will probably never see this again in your life. Never has happened before.”

          “…can expect… just like this, and many more of them, and much bigger ones.”

          Best to appreciate each as they come — because much more is unfolding whether or not we are aware of them — as we speak now.

  81. Cate

     /  October 9, 2016

    Reply
  82. Cate

     /  October 9, 2016

    Sunday is the final day of Arctic Circle 2016, a major international conference taking place in Reykjavik. Interesting tidbits filtering out on the Twitterfeed, although some are complaining that there’s not enough online yet. Lots of scientists and research institutions are participating, so hopefully we’ll see info surfacing in the next wee while.

    #ArcticCircle2016

    Reply
  83. – Possibly, Robert, and or, his parents, are being impacted by this tenacious storm — he may be very busy.

    – For myself, I have been trying to add a bit of the traditional news-ticker style input to ‘flesh’ out some underlying stories — usually with a couple of buttressing threads to add dimension.

    – As this valuable RS comments section is now bulging at the seams — I will post these pieces to my dtlange2 WordPress (the free but less versatile version) blog.

    Oft repeated, and culturally biased, comments and analogies are unwelcome – they do little to simplify some basic physics and anthropogenic liabilities — as are oft repeated film/music bits.

    I say this as serious film student, and musician. Film and music narratives are dependent on a rhythm energy. Anything the hinders the rhythm wrecks the flow of the theme.

    I do like to ‘riff’ and improvise though — and add to the flow — culturally, scientifically, socially, and etc. too.

    – Heartfelt concerns to all impacted by this latest climate change influenced storm.

    – DT

    https://dtlange2.wordpress.com/2016/10/09/storms-2016-political-and-weather-a-starter-kit-part-1-of-trump-vs-hurricane-matthew/

    Reply
  84. anthropocene

     /  October 9, 2016

    Music break in all this bad news me thinks (although Youtube links never seem to embed for me). For all those of you who seem to be having a summer that never ends – and in particular for the arctic. A requiem to a world which is disappearing. “Bring me the snowfall, bring me the cold winds, bring me the snowfall, bring me the winter”.

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  October 9, 2016

      Yeah, anthropocene. Climate Reanalyzer surface temp. anomalies for today: World +0.54C Tropics +0.28C Averaged together, Arctic and Antarctic +4.02C!

      Reply
  85. Greg

     /  October 9, 2016

    St. Augustine, Florida

    Reply
  86. Greg

     /  October 9, 2016

    Reply
  87. Greg

     /  October 9, 2016

    Reply
  88. – Via climatehawk1:

    Reply
  89. – Enter Nicole:

    Reply
  90. Greg

     /  October 9, 2016

    Jeff Masters latest. “Several locations along Matthew’s path through the Southeast recorded incredibly high amounts of atmospheric moisture on Friday and Saturday. At least two sites had record amounts of precipitable water (the total amount of liquid water that would cover the ground over a given location if all the moisture in a column of air above was condensed). These readings are taken with radiosonde soundings (balloon-borne instrument packages) that have been conducted regularly since 1948.”
    https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/matthew-flings-alltime-surge-and-rainfall-records-across-southeast

    Reply
    • – ‘The total amount of liquid water that would cover the ground over a given location if all the moisture in a column of air above was condensed.’ Indeed.

      ‘regularly since 1948.’ Just when I entered the world in high and dry blue sky Denver, CO,

      Reply
  91. – The Arctic and it’s ice:

    Reply
    • Reply
      • – Re the above severe storm Tweet here is Zack’s reply to me after I sent it to him:
        Zack Labe
        ‏@ZLabe

        @DavidLange2 wow, that is quite a storm! Thanks for pointing it out!

        Reply
      • – Also this type of storm in this area is one that also concerned Robert. Besides this N Pac as a door to Arctic — there is also the NW Atlantic Iceland/Greenland storm areas as another doorway to Arctic and all in between.

        Reply
    • Cate

       /  October 10, 2016

      Looks like a complete stall, and interestingly mirrors the daily mean temps graph over at DMI.

      What’s stopping the advance of cold? Where’s the heat coming from?

      Oh wait.

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  October 10, 2016

        To clarify, that was in response to the Zack Labe graph.

        Reply
        • – Cate re your ‘heat’ related query in Arctic Ice Tweet by Zack — go ahead and ask him in a reply to this Tweet. He’s always friendly and helpful. RS has given him a few ‘Hat Tips’ lately. Check out his other connections he’s up there with the best.

        • Cate. I refer you to this related OCT 4 ZL ‘surface temps’ link I posted — and Robert’s response.

          robertscribbler / October 4, 2016

          Thanks for this, DT.

  92. Not really one for debates(prefer a nice discussion over coffee/glass of wine). But it appears a spade was called a spade.

    Reply
  93. Robert’s nearby areas have been heavily impacted. Many are very familiar with him.
    If I recall, his parent’s live in one of the impacted areas.
    I hope he and family are OK.

    Reply
    • Cate

       /  October 11, 2016

      Any news from Robert yet? Hoping all is well with him and his family.

      Reply
  94. Reply
  95. coloradobob

     /  October 10, 2016

    Report: Climate Change has Doubled The Area Burned By Forest Fires in the West

    SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Anyone who lives in the western United States is familiar with the massive fires that rage every summer, and a report out Monday says climate change has doubled the amount of acreage burned since 1984.

    Researchers from the University of Idaho and Columbia University found that further warming will accelerate this trend in the future. Study co-author John Abatzoglou, a professor of geography at the University of Idaho, said climate change has increased what scientists call “fuel aridity.”

    “Since climate change has basically shifted our fuels to be drier than they would have been in the absence of climate change,” Abatzoglou said, “we use that relationship to get an estimate of the additional area that has burned due to man-made climate change.”

    The study found that natural variability in weather patterns has combined with climate change to compound the problem. Statistics show that more than 8,700 wildland fires burned almost 900,000 acres in California in 2015.

    Abatzoglou said the acreage that has burned in the Western U.S. since 1984 due to climate change equals an area more than three times the size of Los Angeles County.

    “We estimate that right around 16,000 additional square miles has burned as a result of man-made climate change,” Abatzoglou said, “which is just under about half of the total amount over the last 32 years.”

    http://www.publicnewsservice.org/2016-10-10/climate-change-air-quality/report-climate-change-has-doubled-the-area-burned-by-forest-fires-in-the-west/a54405-1

    Reply
  96. coloradobob

     /  October 10, 2016

    Pacific walrus begin arriving ashore on Alaska’s northwest coast

    ANCHORAGE, ALASKA Pacific walrus are beginning to come ashore near a remote community on Alaska’s northwest coast in what’s become a marine mammal phenomenon caused by a warming climate.

    The massive animals have gathered by the thousands each fall on a barrier island near the Inupiat Eskimo village of Point Lay. Last year, 35,000 hauled out on the rocky beach. So far, about 1,000 walrus are currently at the site, CBS affiliate KTVA reports.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/pacific-walrus-begin-arriving-ashore-near-alaskan-northwest-coast-point-lay/

    Reply
  97. Abel Adamski

     /  October 10, 2016

    Food for thought, but not unexpected to the Scribblers
    A Horrifying New Study Found that the Ocean is on its Way to Suffocating by 2030
    http://www.theinertia.com/environment/a-horrifying-new-study-found-that-the-ocean-is-on-its-way-to-suffocating-by-2030/

    Also on that site another interesting article

    While Politicians are Still Debating Whether Climate Change Exists, the Military is Preparing For It

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  October 10, 2016

      Thanks, Abel. As we transport ourselves to the front, the front moves towards us….

      Reply
    • Note that “on its way to suffocating by 2030” is imprecise language. The researcher involved is saying it could “begin to suffocate” by then. Alarming anyway, but process won’t be finished as the headline seems to suggest.

      Reply
  98. Shawn Redmond

     /  October 10, 2016

    “It’s the first evidence that we are tipping over the edge potentially towards runaway or irreversible climate change,” says James Curran, former chief executive of the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and co-author of the study published in the journal Weather.

    https://cosmosmagazine.com/climate/trees-and-plants-reached-peak-carbon-10-years-ago

    Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  October 10, 2016

      Thanks for this, Shawn. And thanks to the authors of it. Precisely my worried thought regarding failure of sinks (oceanic/terrestrial?) suggested by rising rate of CO2 while industrial emission begin to seemingly plateau…..

      Reply
      • Shawn Redmond

         /  October 10, 2016

        Kevin my worry is that this sort of observation is going to become quite common, quite quickly over multiple disciplines. The sort of fixes that are discussed here should have been well under way thirty to forty years ago. That’s a lot of inertia built into a system that responds on exponential rules. The only thing left is which math equation is the right one 2x2x2x2….. or 3x3x3…..? Or is this also an increasing equation? 2x2x2x2x3x3x4x4……..

        Reply
      • June

         /  October 10, 2016

        Thanks for this link. This is really disturbing.

        From the article:
        In 2014 alone, the shortfall in carbon absorption was equivalent to a year’s worth of human-produced emissions from China.

        Reply
    • g. orwell

       /  October 10, 2016

      “…the first evidence…”
      HUH?

      Reply
    • Scheduling tweet on this, thanks.

      Reply
    • Griffin

       /  October 10, 2016

      At some point, the standard reasoning of “heat, drought and stress” just doesn’t cut it. Trees are dying worldwide on an enormous scale. That they are no longer able to sequester increasing amounts of Carbon is of no great surprise to me if I look out the window. The trees around me have not had to endure any heat or drought of any climatological significance but they are dead or dying in every corner of my region.
      See here for a whole lot more:
      Trees in a Changing Environment”, chapter 7, “Forest trees under Air Pollution”, by Rainer Matyssek et al.
      Air pollution and climate change are inherently linked to each other. After introducing into the presently prevalent air pollutants and their relevance for forest tree and ecosystem performance, the account focuses on nitrogen deposition and troposphere ozone (O3), the latter being regarded as potentially most detrimental to vegetation, and hence, as negating carbon sink strength and storage.
      http://witsendnj.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-waste-land.html#comment-form

      Reply
      • Griffin –
        Glad to see a link to Gail’s blog – followed her for years when she was posting 2-3 times a week.

        From reading her over the years, I think she makes a very strong case for pollution damage to our forest “carbon sinks” – primarily from O3 and NOx

        This recent post you link to is an excellent summary of her case.

        I live in the woods in southern Quebec – near Vermont border – have been here for 65 years – see the evidence and the dying trees all around me – but our acreage has not been changed in any way in that time – only factor that could be causing it has to be atmospheric.

        Scary to think that we are doing so much damage to the CO2 absorbing capacity of our forests all over the world. Not accounted for in climate models, to my knowledge.

        Reply
        • Griffin

           /  October 11, 2016

          Gail has opened my eyes to what is going on around me.
          To be honest, I didn’t want to believe her writings when I first came across her blog (linked here of course). But I dove in to the seemingly endless links and read the studies and articles that she has links to. When I was done, it was more than conclusive. Air pollution is bad and our trees are not healthy from breathing it.

        • Cate

           /  October 11, 2016

          Pollution damage to our forests might explain a lot of what I am seeing, increasingly, in my neck of the woods—what look to me like overstressed trees, damaged by frost in budding or pollination seasons (for flowering trees), drying out, thinning foliage, susceptible to pests and odd new diseases, and generally looking unwell. Not thriving.

          We know the damage air pollution does to human lungs. Makes perfect sense that it would also damage, on a much larger scale, the lungs of the planet—our forests.

    • Damn. I was hoping that all the crap about CO2 fertilization had some basis.

      I hope there is some sort of error here, for the sake of the planet and for humanity’s sake too.

      One thing I keep wondering about is the charcoal produced by wildfires. Won’t a lot of that charcoal end up in the soil? Something like 25 percent of the carbon involved in a wildfire ends up as charcoal, and won’t that charcoal be out of the active carbon cycle for decades or centuries?

      I know I’m grasping at straws, but straws are what we have right now, sad to say.

      Reply
      • Shawn Redmond

         /  October 11, 2016

        Words fail me, all I can seem to think of is: the whole is much much greater than the sum of its parts.

        Reply
      • I don´t think those straws are very solid. I´ve not seen studies on how long wildfire charcoal and nutrients keep in the soil for other environments, but for Amazonia, Cerrado and Atlantic Rainforest the numbers are:
        –> Initial phase – Boom – Hyperfertile soil (the soil just after a fire is richer than it was before, as the charcoal left in the soil, and nutrients from the ashes boost plant regrowth)
        . In the Amazon (Lots of rain all year, shallow soil, mostly flat lands, hot all year) – Lasts for about 6 months
        . In the Atlantic Rainforest (Lots of rain during spring and summer, dry times in winter, deep soil, flat low areas hot all year, hilly steep areas with noticiable seasonal differences in temperatures) – Lasts for about 1 month in the hills, 3 months in low areas.
        . In Cerrado (Mostly dry, but some rain in the spring and summer, deep very acidic soil, hot all year)- Lasts for about 1 year.

        –> Secondary phase – Fertile soil (soil still good enough for agriculture, even if fire is repeated yearly, without fertization):
        . In the Amazon – Lasts for about 5 years.
        . In the Atlantic Rainforest – Lasts for about 7 years
        . In Cerrado – Lasts for about 15 years (for plants adapted to acidic soil or if calcary is added)
        –> Third phase – Bust (infertile soil – soil is unable to be used for agriculture. It´s also unable to support the same kind of vegetation it could support before, so no regrowth of forests)
        . In areas surrounded by forest and not disturbed further, it will take about 30 years in the Atlantic Rainforest biome to reclaim the area (pionner trees grownth, begins to form new soil), and about 20 years more for the forest to reach 80% of the previous biodiversity.
        . In the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, that time has not been accounted yet. It´s at least more than 50 years.

        In tropical environments, rains and erosion (stepper hills, for example) are a huge factor on how long that charcoal carbon stays in the soil. In colder environments (hey, I´ve never even seen snow in my life, I known nothing about cold environments), I don´t know what factors would be more important.

        But the gist of it is that new charcoal in the soil is very easy to erode, and it takes soil nutrients with it. Charcoal can be added to the soil in ways that keep it there, but that requires burying it at least a little, and adding vegetal cover (preferentially trees, and nitrogen-fixing legumes) fast. I can´t imagine how to do it in the scale needed for some of the wildfires that are already happening now. Maybe huge re-seeding efforts just after fires?

        Reply
  99. coloradobob

     /  October 10, 2016

    MIAMI (CBSMiami) – Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton will make a campaign stop in South Florida this week and she’s bringing along a special guest.

    Clinton will visit Miami on Tuesday and joining her will be former Vice President Al Gore. Highlighting the talk will be climate change and the importance of November’s election.
    http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/10/09/hillary-clinton-al-gore-to-visit-miami/

    Reply
  100. Abel Adamski

     /  October 10, 2016

    Another interesting new discovery.
    https://www.uq.edu.au/news/article/2016/10/scientists-find-new-climate-change-culprits

    Scientists find new climate change culprits
    10 October 2016

    Scientists have discovered a major group of organisms contributing to climate change, the second major breakthrough in 12 months towards mapping the tree of life.

    Deputy Head of The University of Queensland’s Australian Centre for Ecogenomics Professor Gene Tyson said the previously unknown group of methane-metabolising micro-organisms appeared to be ancient and widespread in nature.

    He said methane-producing and consuming organisms played an important role in greenhouse gas emissions and consumption, contributing to climate change.

    “The environments in which the new methane-producing cluster is found includes wetlands, lake and river estuary sediments, mud volcanoes and deep-sea vents,” Professor Tyson said.

    “This research expands our knowledge of diversity of life on Earth and suggests we are missing other organisms involved in carbon cycling and methane production.”

    Last year Professor Tyson’s lab was part of an international project which discovered a new group of methane-metabolising organisms called Bathyarchaeota, also found in a wide-range of environments.

    “Traditionally, these type of methane-metabolising organisms occur within a single cluster of microorganisms called Euryarchaeota,” he said.

    “We have now found two new clusters of microorganisms, leading us to wonder how many other types of methane-metabolising microorganisms are out there.”

    Reply
  101. coloradobob

     /  October 10, 2016

    From Friday into Saturday, Savannah International Airport broke the city’s official 24-hour rainfall record of 11.44” on Sept. 17-18, 1928, according to WU weather historian Christopher Burt. It’s quite possible that an even higher 24-hour reading will be confirmed from one of the other Savannah-area reporting stations, as suggested by the storm total above.

    Norfolk, VA, received 7.44” of rain on Saturday, making it the city’s wettest October day on record (beating 6.23” from October 17, 1999). Little more than three months ago, Norfolk set its all-time July calendar-day rainfall record with 6.98” on the 31st.

    Raleigh-Durham International Airport picked up 6.45” on Saturday, beating the area’s previous all-time calendar-day rainfall record of 5.96” set on October 1, 1929. Raleigh-area records extend back to 1887.

    Perhaps the single most phenomenal record on Saturday was at Fayetteville, NC, where 14.00” of rain was reported on Saturday. This demolished the city’s previous all-time calendar-day record of 6.80” observed during Hurricane Floyd on September 16, 1999. In fact, there are only four entire months in Fayetteville weather history that have received more rain than Fayetteville picked up in 24 hours on Saturday! Fayetteville records extend back to 1871. The flooding situation in the Fayetteville area was made even worse by very heavy rains observed in parts of the area during late September.

    https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3474#commenttop

    Reply
  102. coloradobob

     /  October 10, 2016

    10 Dead, 1,500 Stranded by Levee Breach in North Carolina as Dangerous Matthew Flooding Continues

    https://www.wunderground.com/news/hurricane-matthew-north-carolina-update

    Reply
  103. Cate

     /  October 10, 2016

    What’s left of Matthew’s moisture is currently soaking Newfoundland, with warnings of up to 200 mm (about 8″) in some areas. I have lived here most of my life and have never seen the likes of this. But forecasts for many inches of rain have become, well, normal.

    High winds with this system have also caused cancellations on all major ferry services in Atlantic Canada. Btw, in Canada, this is Thanksgiving Day, hence the headline.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/thanksgiving-rainfall-weather-forecast-1.3798654

    Reply
    • June

       /  October 11, 2016

      Cate, it seems like more of these remnants of Atlantic hurricanes make it up to Newfoundland more often than they used to. Or it may be that I’m just paying more attention to these things than I used to. What do you think?

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  October 12, 2016

        June, we’ve always experienced what my mum would call “the tail end” of hurricanes, as long as I can remember, so it’s not unusual at all for them to make it this far north, although they’ve usually lost “hurricane” status by then.

        This rainstorm was unusual in that it was not a hurricane. It was sparked by a cold front that siphoned off Matthew’s moisture. We are blessed that the damage has been minor and mostly inconvenient throughout the island, compared to other areas, but nevertheless many small isolated communities now require roads and bridges rebuilt in order to be reconnected to “civilisation” (in the form of the highway).

        My own area received 180 mm of rain. This was absolutely unprecedented and unforeseen.

        Reply
        • Cate

           /  October 12, 2016

          Another thought—if it seems that hurricanes are hitting Newfoundland more often, maybe the severity is attracting media attention? Hurricane Juan in 2003, Igor in 2010, and now Son of Matthew in 2016 all wreaked more damage in this area than “normal” or expected.

  104. Cate

     /  October 10, 2016

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/10/record-low-number-of-uk-butterflies-a-shock-and-a-mystery

    What’s up with British butterflies?

    “….. the Big Butterfly Count has recorded its lowest number of common species since records began. Scientists said the low number of butterflies is “a shock and a mystery” because this summer was warmer than average and much drier in England than the previous worst year for butterflies, 2012, which was unusually cold and wet.
    According to Fox, the most likely principal cause of this year’s butterfly slump was the recent “extreme” weather event: the unusually mild winter. It may be that caterpillars emerged from hibernation during the warm winter and then perished in the colder-than-average spring but Fox said scientific studies of the impact of mild winters need to be undertaken.”

    The Big Butterfly Count is the biggest annual citizen science survey in the world.

    Reply
    • Jeremy in Wales

       /  October 10, 2016

      Not just butterflies but all insects. This is totally anectodal but the number and size of insects being squashed by the car windscreen has decreased year on year. In the 1980’s the windscreen would be a mess and would need to be regularly cleared and cleaned but now the windscreen remains clean and clear all summer. Mentioned this to several friends and they all agree the same.

      Reply
      • Maybe. I’d like to see some research. I’ve noticed a similar phenomenon, but have been thinking it’s due to improved automobile design–making the car more aerodynamically efficient changes the slipstream that surrounds it. Not denying that climate disruption is a catastrophe, just not convinced by this particular evidence.

        Reply
        • Cate

           /  October 11, 2016

          We’ve noticed the same thing here (eastern Canada)—a lot less buggy-gunk on the car the past few years, after a long highway drive. Someone must be studying this, surely.

        • I first noticed it with 2001 Prius, purchased in 2003. May be unintended consequence of fuel economy standards. I’m sure there have been nights when I’ve seen plenty of bugs approaching, but they don’t slam into the windshield like they used to. All I have is anecdotal, though.

        • CH-
          I think it is a lot more than car body design.
          Many scientists working in the field have learned that anecdotal evidence from natives can provide meaningful insight into changes in the local biosphere over time.
          I have been in the same area of southern Quebec (just north of Vermont border) for most of the last 70 years – and spending a lot of time in the outdoors. So here is some “anecdotal evidence” about insect populations in our area:

          Mayfly: Driving over a bridge on local river, air was thick with Mayflies for a period in May in late 50’s – 60’s. At the height of the season, literally had to stop after crossing the bridge to clean the windshield – wipers couldn’t do it. Never see a Mayfly now.

          Firefly: As a youngster, friends and I would sometimes entertain ourselves on a summer evening by catching 20 – 30 fireflies in a clean glass jar – watch them glow for a while, then release them. Any pleasant summer evening, late June to mid-August, fireflies would be present by the hundreds in any area of long grass. In those same fields now, if you are observant, you may see 2 or 3 fireflies in an evening.

          Black fly: In our area the black fly season used to be a period of 2-3 weeks in May. They made working outdoors in the woods very unpleasant on any warm sunny day. Ten years ago or so, noticed they were less of a bother – and in the last 5 years, they have only been noticeable for about 1 week in 1 of the years – 4 years of basically no black flies.

          Could go on – same story for honeybees, bumblebees, mosquitoes, June bugs, Monarch butterflies, Ambassador butterflies, Lunar moths, dragon flies, needle flies…

          All this in an area of mixed small farms and woodlots, which has had very little “development of civilization” for several hundred acres around us during this period.

          Haven’t “studied” this – don’t know precise causes – but I know that the observations are valid locally.

        • – Most of my best friends have been insects and butterflies. I have devoted great stores of love and positive energy into preserving their honest and regal existence of pure innocence.
          – Their existence, and mine — and of everyone here — are threatened by all things automobile Of this, I have no doubt.
          – Analogous inferences of cars here may be more profound and accurate than anyone should comfortably consider.

          – DT

          Danaus plexippus
          Brephidium exilis
          Vanessa annabella
          Vanessa cardui
          Limenitis lorquini
          Nymphalis antiopa

          Phasmatodea

        • Griffin

           /  October 11, 2016

          Unfortunately, there are a good deal of studies on this and the news is not good.

          “The decline is dramatic and depressing and it affects all kinds of insects, including butterflies, wild bees, and hoverflies,” says Martin Sorg, an entomologist from the Krefeld Entomological Association involved in running the monitoring project.

          http://e360.yale.edu/feature/insect_numbers_declining_why_it_matters/3012/

        • Huh, thanks for the info. I think perhaps one reason I hadn’t noticed is that here in east central Vermont, what I think of as gnats (small flying insects that are attracted to sweat) seem much more numerous than 5-10 years ago. Deerflies have not slacked off, either. I did comment a while back that June bugs seem to have disappeared in the past two years after being very regular previously.

        • Jeremy in Wales

           /  October 11, 2016

          Not entirely convinced by improved aerodynamics of vehicles being the reason behind reduced squashed bugs, as as one of the friends who agreed with my observation rides an old fachioned Vespa scooter with a vertical windscreen. Perhaps truck drivers would be a better source of anecdotal evidence.
          I am also not convinced that the only source of stress on insects is purely climate – pesticides and microwave energy (mobile phones, DEC phones, police communications etc) may well be the cause of the problems.

        • Not about flying insects (this one is about soil ones), but I´ve just seen today an article showing that areas of monoculture can have 89% less ants, termites, worms and other soil insects and invertebrates than areas with native vegetation. Not exactly a climate consequence, but surely an anthopocene one.

          http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969716308117

      • George W. Hayduke

         /  October 11, 2016

        I’ve also been very aware of this. We would take a yearly trip through agriculture areas of the pacific northwest for the last ten years. On one occasion (first time I noticed) we drove 500 miles through some pretty big arm areas and barely a splat on the windshield, gave me goosebumps when it started to sink in. I will say though on a trip from MT to OR this past summer we picked up more insects on the windshield in this one trip than we had for probably the last five combined…

        Reply
      • miles h

         /  October 11, 2016

        counting squished insects on cars is recognised as a legitimate way to count insect populations. typically theyre counted on the front facing flat bits (number plates, bumpers/fenders) to eliminate bias from aerodynamics. …i suppose its controversial in that it only counts insects that hang out on roads, and is a sample only from one particular day/journey. but it does confirm a trend where there are fewer insects overall – which is very bad news indeed.

        Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  October 11, 2016

      Yes, DaveW. I could have written a near identical comment. (Did see far more fireflies this summer in SW New Hampshire than in recent years). Griffin, you beat me to the link.

      Reply
      • June

         /  October 11, 2016

        Ditto here in Maine. Fewer butterflies, grasshoppers, crickets. A lot more ticks. This summer we had more fireflies than the last several years, but for just a couple of weeks.

        Reply
        • Cate

           /  October 11, 2016

          Mosquitoes and blackflies, the bane of summer in Newfoundland, have been noticeable by their reduced numbers this year, and in my own backyard, drastically reduced. What’s happened? I shudder to think what a collapse in insect populations will mean for songbirds, and that’s just for starters…..

      • noticeably fewer songbirds here also, and NO bats for 3 or 4 years now. Used to see bats swooping around every evening

        Reply
  105. Greg

     /  October 10, 2016

    The growth of political polarization in the United States. Likely similar graph in other countries. Makes movement on climate change difficult.

    Reply
  106. Shawn Redmond

     /  October 10, 2016

    Cate get ready you’re up.

    Heavy rains falling in Cape Breton on Monday have caused pockets of flooding, washed out roadways and filled basements with water.

    According to CBC metrologist Kalin Mitchell, the Sydney area has seen 99.8 millimetres of rain and counting, nearly half of that amount fell over the course of just six hours.

    http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/nova-scotia/cape-breton-heavy-rains-flooding-1.3799016

    Reply
    • Cate

       /  October 11, 2016

      Shawn, we have officially exceeded 100 mm here, and the south coast of the island (Burgeo-Connaigre) is looking to exceed 200 mm. Parts of the Burgeo highway are washed away.

      The Mayor of Clarenville remarked that a river in the town may hit “century” flood levels, then added without a glimmer of irony that the last “century flood” for that area was during Hurricane Igor. That was in 2010.

      For the record: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Igor

      Reply
      • Shawn Redmond

         /  October 11, 2016

        Wow just wow these are what snow fall totals used to look like. I know you need rain but! I spent a week up the west coast in August, driest I’ve ever seen it. The run across to St Anthony was very brown were you would normally see many shallow ponds. I thought about the co2 and ch4 that had to be rising from those dry bogs.

        Reply
  107. Griffin

     /  October 11, 2016

    Colorado Bob, I donated to ShelterBox today. This is 100% due to your writing about the organization in your comments here on the blog.
    Just wanted you to know that cause it’s pretty darn cool that you made us all aware of such a great way to help those in need.

    Reply
  108. OT but a little good news.
    World leaders discuss ban of climate-busting refrigerants.
    http://www.nature.com/news/world-leaders-discuss-ban-of-climate-busting-refrigerants-1.20768

    “After being directed for almost 30 years at substances that destroy ozone, the Montreal Protocol will for the first time target a group of greenhouse gases. Beginning today in Kigali, Rwanda, member states of the United Nations are finalizing the terms of what could be the largest commitment to reducing global warming since the Paris Agreement on climate last December.

    Delegates are likely to take till the meeting’s final day on 14 October to hammer out the knotty details of an amendment to the protocol. Ideally, the amendment will set the terms for a rapid phasedown of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), the most common of which is the refrigerant HFC-134a, which has 1,430 times more warming potential than carbon dioxide (CO2) over 100 years. The amendment would stop the manufacture of HFCs and then reduce their use over time.
    . . .
    In a 2007 study, Guus Velders, now with the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment in the Netherlands, estimated that had CFCs, HCFCs and halons continued to grow in use, as they had before the Montreal Protocol (at about 2 to 3% annually), by 2010 they would have contributed a cumulative equivalent of 135 billion tons of carbon dioxide. In 2015, the world emitted a total of 32.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide.

    Reply
  109. Another mechanism to explain the loss of insects.
    Global warming collapses symbiotic gut bacteria, killing host insects.
    October 4, 2016 American Society for Microbiology
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/10/161004111952.htm

    In the new study, investigators demonstrated that when the southern green stinkbug was reared inside an incubator, in which temperature was controlled at 2.5 °C higher than outside, there was a significant reduction in the symbiont bacteria that sparked severe fitness defects in the insect (ie. retarded growth, reduced size). Global warming is predicted to raise the average temperature by 2.5 °C by 2100. At higher temperatures, no nymphs were able to reach the adult stage.

    Reply
  110. Cate

     /  October 11, 2016

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/global-economy-self-destruct-nicholas-stern-fossil-fuels-sustainable-infrastructure-report-a7347211.html

    Economist Lord Nicholas Stern says the global economy may self-destruct if we stay on the fossil fuel path, and that clean energy development has huge potential for new, sustainable economic growth. We have to change course quickly because we don’t have much time, and in some cases, choices we make in the next “two to three YEARS” may lock us in for decades to come.

    Reply
  111. Greg

     /  October 11, 2016

    I ( Katharine Hayhoe – Climate Scientist) teamed up with our local PBS station KTTZ to produce a new PBS Digital Studios web series, “Global Weirding: Climate, Politics, and Religion.” Every other Wednesday, for the next six months, we’ll be rolling out a new video exploring climate change and what it means to all of us.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/katharine-hayhoe/god-politics-and-global-w_b_12388020.html

    Reply
  112. Greg

     /  October 11, 2016

    Our world is changing rapidly and I don’t mean just our natural world. Creepy but prescient interview of an android by CBS. Likely AI (artificial intelligence) will play a key role modeling climate for our future:
    http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/charlie-rose-interviews-a-robot

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  October 11, 2016

      Within 50 years AI, androids, robotics, automation will have the capacity to replace the gainful working function of almost every human in every industry and field.
      Who then will earn the income to consume and pay taxes. ?

      Look at old pictures of offices and factories, teeming with PEOPLE, most have now been replaced by technology in its infancy

      Reply
    • Robert in New Orleans

       /  October 11, 2016

      One possible problem with AI is when it determines that you are the problem.

      Off topic just a bit, but I remember an original Star Trek episode called “The Changeling” and it featured the Nomad probe which would sterilize imperfection that it encountered. I don’t think that Nomad could escape a Trump rally fast enough before depleting its batteries.

      Reply
      • June

         /  October 11, 2016

        There is an erticle on this very topic in today’s Guardian, about people losing skills because of overreliance on technology.

        Crash: how computers are setting us up for disaster

        https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/11/crash-how-computers-are-setting-us-up-disaster

        Reply
        • Abel Adamski

           /  October 11, 2016

          Excellent article.
          If Civilization did collapse, we would be straight back to the stone age. All our knowledge is basically stored as data, our manufacturing even mining and the basic production metallurgy etc are all automated or dependant on technology which will not function, not to mention vulnerable supply chains, our villages and cities widely spaced structured on vehicles and transportation systems. Even self drive cars are coming meaning driving become limited

        • Jacob

           /  October 12, 2016

          I often times wonder about the same thing. Most of the basic things we use everyday food, tools, and any number of other things are easily available for the masses. Perhaps it’s just me, but it feels like skills that used to be common knowledge, that people largely did themselves, or lived in small communities where someone knew how to craft given items have been lost. That’s dangerous. For those people who do still know how to do things without higher technology, they will already have a leg up on everyone (myself included) who know nothing and have relied on the ease of access to everything, in the event of a collapse. When I was young my grandparents on both sides had small farms and they took care of their own livestock, produced some of their foods, had valuable knowledge. Alas I was once too young to appreciate that value, all but one of my grandparents passed long ago, unfortunately they came too early into my life and I too late into theirs.

      • “Kirk now realizes Nomad is a conscience-less and apparently unstoppable device that is capable of wiping out entire solar systems in the blink of an eye.”

        If only we could adapt Kirk’s solution and convince Trump to build a wall around himself or something. (Though he may be self-destructing already.)

        Reply
  113. Greg

     /  October 11, 2016

    Reply
  114. Greg

     /  October 11, 2016

    Reply
  115. ‘Barrow with a high of 44ºF.’

    Reply
  116. Already getting heavy rainfalls the last two nights (since mid-last week on/off rainfall) but after midnight when most people are sleeping. Hard rains but I don’t have a rain gauge unfortunately. It was just pounding the roofs again last night while the first snow dusted the local mountains above 5,500 feet.

    Brilliant star-filled sky tonight. Calm before the storm? A freeze is due by morning and it certainly feels like it outside at the moment. Weatherunderground is still predicting record warmth coming for the last two weeks of this month…

    Not looking forward to a washout this Friday or whenever the main frontal system rolls through this N/Eastern corner of Washington. My on-a-dirt-road property is halfway up a ridgeline above the valleys so it’s the soaked soil with big winds that are worrying. After the radical lightning t-storms of the last few years I’ve got numerous up to 90 feet high mixed pine and fir that are tilted, those that haven’t already gone down.

    I’ve marked 21 lightning t-storms on the calendar since April but this looks too cold for bolts.

    Guess it’s my turn again for a climate-enhanced storm…

    Reply
  117. coloradobob

     /  October 11, 2016

    Climate cracks showing in Nevada pine nut harvest
    BAKER — Along a dirt road just north of Great Basin National Park, Dayer LeBaron plucks a cone from a pinyon tree and shakes its contents into his calloused hand.

    The pine nuts almost shine in their varnished, dark-brown husks, but all he can see is their size. These are Nevada soft-shelled pine nuts; they’re supposed to be bigger than this.

    “There’s definitely something going on,” says LeBaron, a commercial harvester from El Paso, Texas. “Being in these mountains for 40 years, I’ve seen it with my own eyes. I know something’s going on.”

    In pinyon groves on public land across eastern Nevada, the annual commercial pine nut harvest is well underway. For decades, several small, family-run outfits have made a business out of collecting and selling a crop they don’t cultivate on land they don’t own.

    http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/nevada/climate-cracks-showing-nevada-pine-nut-harvest

    Reply
  118. A Pocket Handbook of Soft Climate Denial

    Michael Hoexter, Ph.D.

    http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2016/10/pocket-handbook-soft-climate-denial.html

    In a recent piece, I introduced the concept of “soft climate denial”. In soft climate denial, people acknowledge that climate change is real and threatening and may even be panicked about it. However, in this cultural-political constellation with attendant states of mind, the solutions for climate change that are embraced are in no way commensurate to the acknowledged threats to human existence posed by anthropogenic global warming. Consequently, soft climate denial leads often to hand-wringing or other ineffectual actions but no decisive steps taken towards meeting the challenge of human-caused and human-accelerated global warming.

    I contrasted soft climate denial with conventional “hard” climate denial, which is, now well recognized as a phenomenon: the social, political and psychological process of denying that climate change is even a serious problem and/or that human beings have any role in what is supposedly some harmless natural variation in temperature. In this terminology, “hard” climate denial is the conventional climate denial that is associated with think tanks like the Competitive Enterprise Institute and the Heartland Institute or the work of the fossil fuel lobby and the Koch Brothers to delay climate action of any meaningful kind. I suggested that all well-intentioned people with regard to the climate are more or less tied up in soft climate denial and we, the well-intentioned, can only free ourselves via decisive collective action on every level of social and political organization.

    Article continues at link.

    Reply
  119. redskylite

     /  October 11, 2016

    BBC do a good job of talking about a growing climate change threat, without mentioning it at all. Climate news glaringly absent from the organization yet again.

    Slight hint here . . .

    “In the report, the Environment Agency blames insurers for failing to prepare for the increased threat of flooding.”

    The insurers, the agency says, should not simply re-instate flooded homes to their original state – they should ensure properties are resistant or resilient to future floods.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37565462

    Reply
  120. Cate

     /  October 11, 2016

    Post-Matthew rain has drenched southern and central Newfoundland. We knew the rain was coming, but the track and amounts weren’t clear and accurately forecasted until the storm was upon us.

    Gander International Airport reported 153 mm (about 6″) of rain in 24-hours, smashing the all-time record of 119 mm, set back in—-wait for it—2013. Records have been kept at Gander since 1937.

    The only bridge into the small town of St Alban’s on the south coast was washed away and numerous states of emergency have been declared. The signature refrain of climate change weather is echoing all over social media: I’ve never seen anything like it. Unreal.

    But no lives were lost, no homes destroyed. Everyone here is thinking of Haiti.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/thanksgiving-rainfall-weather-forecast-1.3798654

    Reply
  121. coloradobob

     /  October 11, 2016

    Brazilians Flee Drought-Ravaged Land Once Touted as Frontier

    It was advertised as Brazil’s “new frontier,” the vast savanna running alongside the Amazon jungle that would help meet China’s insatiable demand for food. The farmers of Brazil heeded that call, razing trees, plowing virgin land and planting soybeans at a frenetic pace for much of the past decade.

    Now, soybean demand from China has slowed and the world supply has increased amid a record U.S. crop, denting international prices. In parts of northeastern Brazil, so little rain has fallen in the last four years that farmers find themselves stuck in what is the worst agriculture crisis to hit the country in a decade. Productivity in the new frontier in the latest season fell 40 percent below the country’s main soybean-growing region, known as the Center-South. A year ago, the northeast trailed by 6 percent, according to Conab, Brazil’s crop-data agency.

    http://www.agweb.com/article/brazilians-flee-drought-ravaged-land-once-touted-as-frontier-blmg/

    Reply
    • Oh… Matopiba… we Cassandras were talking about how bad an idea it was from the start (about 6 years ago? May be wrong, I´m telling it from memory). It didn´t even have a proper boom before it´s bust.

      It was a grandiose idea, trying to turn the Caatinga in a new agricultural frontier, just like the Cerrado was before. If Cerrado lands where considered “waste” 50 years ago and now they´re the breadbasket of Brasil, why not do the same for Caatinga lands?

      There´s no biome just like Caatinga anywhere else in the world (it´s the only uniquely brasilian biome), but to help the imagination… imagine trying to farm in the outskirts of Las Vegas. Or in Saudi Arabia. All right, people do it, with dessalinization plants and water drilling.

      Very deep and slow recovering aquifers in Matopiba (too expensive to drill for water). Away from the sea (too expensive to dessalinate water). The idea was to use River São Francisco´s water. River São Francisco is a bit like the Nile… a huge river that starts in a forested area and is the only perennial river to cross a desert-like region (with the difference that the Caatinga is a bit less desertic than the Saara). It does NOT pass in Matopiba, but nothing that can´t be be changed with enough concrete thrown at it, right?

      And if Embrapa had found how to plant soy and corn in the Cerrado, selected plants that could adapt to the heat and the dryness… well, the Caatinga is just a bit hotter and drier, scientists can do the same work they did in a century of study in 2-3 years, right?

      And there´s no need for the river São Francisco to be healthy in order to use his waters for a whole new agriculture area, right? Nevermind that river São Francisco is being soiled and silted and… no, river São Francisco´s water´s are inesgotable. It´s a mythic river in Brasil, as much as it´s a real one, and in the myth, there´s no way that river São Francisco can fail. “O sertão vai virar mar…” (since you like music… though this is not rock and roll : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ERBwtuaYmY )

      To make social-economic decisions based in myths disregarding everything scientists can tell about a situation normally ends that way. Matopiba was a marketing device, more than real investiment. I pity the farmers, construction workers and others who migrated to farms there with hopes of a better life.

      The big investors, though? They´re the best laugh I´ve had since the X enterprises of Eike Batista sinked (those where the best tipe of oil company: they´ve never extracted a drop of oil and made all their money from Powerpoint).

      Reply
  122. C. Pac… Almost Super T @ 125 kts.

    Reply
  123. coloradobob

     /  October 11, 2016

    North Carolina’s record floods could have unexpected environmental consequences
    Local Riverkeepers worry that high water could lead to flooded coal ash ponds and hog manure lagoons.

    https://thinkprogress.org/hurricane-matthew-flooding-climate-change-fb980c7c453a#.go9vwwtyi

    Reply
  124. coloradobob

     /  October 12, 2016

    Ex-Typhoon Songda to drench Northwest U.S.
    In the Northwest Pacific, Category 3 Typhoon Sonda is heading northeast at 13 mph towards Alaska, and is expected to transition to a very wet extratropical storm with 45 mph winds on Thursday, when it will be a few hundred miles south of Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. Ex-Songda will then catch a ride with the jet stream and arrive off the coast of Washington on Saturday, when the storm is expected to intensify into a powerful low pressure system with a central pressure near 960 mb, bringing strong winds and heavy rains to the coasts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. Rainfall of 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts over 12 inches, is possible western Washington south to northwestern California this week, due to a series of heavy rainstorms which include ex-Songa this weekend. East of the Cascades, rainfall could total 1 to 3 inches in the valleys and 3 to 7 inches in the foothills of the northern Rockies.

    https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/hurricane-matthew-floodwaters-slowly-recede-hurricane-watch-for-nicol

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  October 12, 2016

      Reply
      • coloradobob

         /  October 12, 2016

        Ex-Typhoon Songda to drench Northwest U.S.

        ” East of the Cascades, rainfall could total 1 to 3 inches in the valleys and 3 to 7 inches in the foothills of the northern Rockies.”

        This should be a snow storm for this time of the year, that far North.

        Reply
  125. coloradobob

     /  October 12, 2016

    MIAMI — During a campaign rally in Miami Tuesday, Hillary Clinton said Hurricane Matthew was “likely more destructive because of climate change.”

    Clinton was campaigning alongside former Vice President Al Gore, who has become a leading climate change activist since leaving politics. She said near record high ocean temperatures “contributed to the torrential rainfall and the flash flooding” from the storm, particularly in the Carolinas.

    Clinton also said that rising sea levels mean Matthew’s “storm surge was higher and the flooding was more severe.”

    http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2016/1011/Clinton-attributes-Hurricane-Matthew-to-climate-change.-Is-she-right

    Reply
  126. coloradobob

     /  October 12, 2016

    Al Gore, With Hillary Clinton, Stresses Voting and Climate
    The former vice president and Democratic nominee tries to drum up turnout in Florida

    It was unclear how much impact Mr. Gore will have with young voters who are considering smaller-party candidates. Asked before the rally if he knew who Mr. Gore was, Gabriel Montero, age 18, said, “He’s a former vice president? I don’t know much about him, honestly.”

    But older voters here remember him well. “They stole the election against Bush,” said Henry Ruiz, age 42, of Miami Beach. “It was here in Florida.”

    Link

    Reply
  127. coloradobob

     /  October 12, 2016

    RS’s parents live in Virginia Beach, he grew up there, My guess he is hard at work, helping them to move inland.

    Reply
    • A big DITTO here.
      I hope all goes well.
      DT

      Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  October 12, 2016

      Thoughts and best wishes for them all

      Reply
    • It’s been a pretty stressful weekend and early week for everyone. I honestly hope they do move soon. Hampton Roads isn’t really safe, IMO anymore. Matthew was a warning shot and it flooded places in Hampton Roads that have never seen flooding before. Pretty much everyone was stranded in their homes on Sunday. But the next one could be much worse.

      Reply
      • utoutback

         /  October 12, 2016

        Glad to read that you & your parents are safe. I’ve been writing friends on the coast for years with the tag line “time to sell the beach house”.
        And, finally Hillary has Al Gore out speaking about climate change. Perhaps with the Repugs self-destructing we can have a discussion of important issues, like Climate change.

        Reply
        • I’m glad she’s brought Gore back on stage. About time really. The republicans wrongfully demonized him. And that was pretty much the start of all this vicious climate change denial nonsense.

  128. coloradobob

     /  October 12, 2016

    Been reading the Haiti numbers .

    Hell didn’t come to breakfast, it came to lunch, and dinner as well.

    Reply
  129. coloradobob

     /  October 12, 2016

    Something to cheer us up –

    Reply
  130. coloradobob

     /  October 12, 2016

    One more –

    It’s a Beautiful Day-Time Is

    Reply
  131. Reply
  132. coloradobob

     /  October 12, 2016

    How we got here –
    the rolling stones – the under assistant west coast promotion man –

    Reply
  133. coloradobob

     /  October 12, 2016

    The Rolling Stones – Going Home

    Reply
  134. CB: Yep, it should be snowing here. Mountains should be white by October in the higher elevations building snowpack. Hasn’t done it for years out here in the NE corner much less on the coast where it’s a lot warmer than this area is supposed to be.

    Snow season here has been freaky bad. It now rains in January/Feb when it should be -30’F. Rains in December, too, for that matter. Can we say Oops? Not good. Boggles the mind at the speed of change in these mountains.

    RS family in Va Beach? I talked my cousin into moving from there inland a few years ago by sending her science articles. To Roanoke(sp?), a bit higher elevation at least for that tidal marsh zone.

    It is interesting that once in a while talking to people actually makes a difference.

    Is RS moving them off permanently inland somewhere? It’s certainly past time for that I would think. He knows it isn’t going to get any better, just worse… Sending good thoughts to him & his family.

    Reply
  135. Coming… PNW?

    Reply
    • Reply
      • Reply
        • John S

           /  October 12, 2016

          Yet another CC enhanced effect – lots of rain, then big winds and down come the trees.
          Southern Australia had a 1-in-50 storm (caused by renewable energy according to MSM – well, one would almost think that reading their crapola) then “high winds” a week later brought down over 2000 trees. That’s 2000 that closed a road, destroyed power lines or hit a house. Others didn’t count.
          Only 1 fatality (by a tree that smashed 2 houses), and fortunately on a Sunday as one building severely damaged was a preschool.
          Stay safe, beware big trees!

        • Greg

           /  October 12, 2016

          Warning: Major Storms Threaten the Pacific Northwest
          Starting Thursday, we will enter a period of extraordinarily active weather with the potential for heavy rain, flooding, and a highly dangerous windstorm with the potential to be an historic event. So much intense weather is going to hit us, that I don’t know where to start…but let me try.
          http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/10/warming-major-storms-threaten-pacific.html

        • Greg

           /  October 12, 2016

          Now in most years, the events along would be impressive, representing one of the strongest events of a typical winter season. But folks, this is just a warm up for the real action on Saturday.

          A true monster storm, potentially as strong as the most powerful storm in NW history (the Columbus Day Storm of 1962) will be approaching our area on Saturday. The UW WRF sea level pressure forecast for 5 AM Saturday morning shows the approaching cyclone. The central pressure is an amazing 961 mb, with an unbelievably strong pressure gradient around it.
          http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/10/warming-major-storms-threaten-pacific.html

      • Greg

         /  October 12, 2016

        With such a storm expect HUGE waves over the eastern Pacific. Here are the latest forecasts from the NOAA WaveWatch III system for 5 PM Sunday. Wow. 12-14 meter (40-45 ft!) waves. (same link above)

        Reply
  136. Abel Adamski

     /  October 12, 2016

    An interesting prelude to summer in Western Australia.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-12/one-million-hectares-destroyed-by-kimberley-bushfire/7924994

    A million hectares destroyed as Kimberley bushfire continues to spread

    A million hectares has now been burnt by a bushfire ripping through the heart of Western Australia’s Kimberley region.

    Started by a lightning strike in late September, the fire has affected several cattle stations along the iconic Gibb River Road, including Ellenbrae, Karunjie, Drysdale and Mt Elizabeth Station.

    Pat Lacy from Mt Elizabeth said the fire had swept through the north-east boundary of the station and destroyed a lot of country.

    “We’ve only got a third of the property left,” she said.

    “If we can’t stop it on the fenceline today, I guess we’ll lose nearly the whole lot.

    “We’re in no immediate danger, but we’re just worried about saving pasture for the animals.”

    Ms Lacy said there were still some tourists in the region travelling along the Gibb River Road.

    “A few tourists came through in the last couple of days and they’re staggered at the blackness of the country,” she said.

    “Driving from the Kununurra end, once you hit Ellenbrae it’s just black for hundreds of kilometres.”

    Mainly shrub and grasslands, but all black ground coming into summer, a heat magnet and store par excellence

    Reply
  137. Abel Adamski

     /  October 12, 2016

    Thought I had lost the Article
    Sobering and concerning if validated
    https://cosmosmagazine.com/climate/trees-and-plants-reached-peak-carbon-10-years-ago

    Trees and plants reached ‘peak carbon’ 10 years ago
    More atmospheric carbon dioxide in the 1960s meant greenery flourished – but our photosynthesising friends have long had their fill. Kate Ravilious reports.
    Photography by Mangiwau / Getty Images

    Trees and plants have had enough. For the past few decades they’ve obliged us by guzzling ever-greater amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide every year – but now they’ve gone on a diet.

    New data shows ‘peak carbon’, when vegetation consumed its largest carbon dioxide feast, occurred in 2006, and since then appetite has been decreasing.

    “It’s the first evidence that we are tipping over the edge potentially towards runaway or irreversible climate change,” says James Curran, former chief executive of the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and co-author of the study published in the journal Weather.

    The news has come as a shock. Previous estimates indicated that peak carbon would not be reached until at least 2030.

    Instead, the new data reveals that trees and plants are already 10 years beyond peak carbon. In 2014 alone, the shortfall in carbon absorption was equivalent to a year’s worth of human-produced emissions from China.

    “By next year the shortfall might equate to the emissions of China plus Australia, for example,” Curran explains.

    “Every year it is getting a little bit worse.”

    Reply
  138. Climate activists were arrested for trying to shutdown the flow of Canadian tar-sands oil into the US, by closing manual shut-off valves in several states. DemocracyNow! has a piece on it today. Hopefully the video will embed below – the story starts at 29:27.

    http://www.democracynow.org/embed/show/2016/10/12

    Reply
    • And on the Missouri River front, the ersatz pipeline appears to be going in regardless. In the not too distant future a spill into the Missouri will poison the drinking water of nearly the entire Mississippi River environs. Why isn’t the entire population of St. Louis out chained to those shovels? What would John Colter say?

      Here is what the LA Times has to say today:
      Dakota Access pipeline work resumes near site of huge, months-long protest.

      Construction on the four-state Dakota Access pipeline resumed Tuesday on private land in North Dakota that’s near a camp where thousands of protesters supporting tribal rights have gathered for months.

      In turn, protesters said they’re discussing nonviolent opposition measures, including chaining themselves to equipment. And at least eight people were arrested Tuesday attempting to shut down pipelines in other states as a show of solidarity with the Dakota Access protesters.

      Texas-based Energy Transfer Partners resumed digging trenches and laying pipe, Morton County Sheriff’s Office spokesman Rob Keller said, two days after a federal appeals court ruling Sunday that allowed construction to resume within 20 miles of Lake Oahe. That Missouri River reservoir is the water supply for the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe’s reservation.

      http://www.latimes.com/nation/nationnow/la-na-dakota-access-pipeline-20161011-snap-story.html

      Reply
  139. Cate

     /  October 12, 2016

    Through my newsfeed today—an observation from Barrow, Alaska: no snow and no sea ice, as of 10 October. Last time this happened was in 1998.

    On a related note, here is a powerful animation from A-Team over at ASIF showing Arctic sea ice extent for 10 October from 2013 to 2016. Posting the link.

    Dunno about anyone else, but this scares the daylights out of me.

    http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1611.msg91534.html#msg91534

    Reply
    • Cate
      That is astounding. Thanks for the link. Makes it hard to see why the arctic ice death spiral will not end by 2020, as the curve now shows and as Wadhams says (just read his new book). Some think the smaller amount of ice will last longer, like slush in a slushie. We’ll know pretty soon, anyway.

      Reply
      • Peter Wadhams unfortunately has, since 2013, been talking as if each year would be the first “ice-free blue ocean” event. Has become repetitious, a bit like crying wolf ( although we all know the wolf will come soon).

        I like the analysis by Professor Wieslaw Maslowski made in early 2012 – based on volume 2007 and after – predicted “ice-free” for 2016 +/- 3 years. That uncertainty range gives us up to 3 more years – and seems to be very much in the ballpark still.

        Interesting Guardian article from December 2013, with several good links.

        Reply
  140. Cate

     /  October 12, 2016

    Hurricane Matthew and Virginia Beach—we are keeping you and your folks in our thoughts, Robert.

    https://www.virginiabeach.com/article/where-hurricane-matthew-has-left-virginia-beach

    Reply
  141. OT but more on the DNA/RNA free-for-all or why not to be surprised at all the weird diseases coming our way:
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/10/161011131301.htm
    Animal-like DNA found in a virus. Briefly, bacterial parasite Wolbachia infects black widow spider. Virus (bacteriophage) infecting Wolbachia found to have DNA that produces black widow spider venom.
    There’s a sci-fi tract here somewhere.

    Reply
  142. Greg

     /  October 12, 2016

    Won’t be until Saturday til the flooding effects of last week’s Matthew are peaking for parts of North Carolina:

    Reply
  143. Greg

     /  October 12, 2016

    Yes, OT but worth watching a very well done political short clip advancing Obama legacy, as we all know what it means for climate:

    Reply
  144. June

     /  October 12, 2016

    North Carolina’s record floods could have unexpected environmental consequences

    Local Riverkeepers worry that high water could lead to flooded coal ash ponds and hog manure lagoons.

    https://thinkprogress.org/hurricane-matthew-flooding-climate-change-fb980c7c453a#.xiw1fslhu

    Reply
  145. Greg

     /  October 12, 2016

    Underground Farms and Lab Grown Meat: Can Science Feed Us If the Climate Fails? Farmers, scientists and entrepreneurs are looking at reinventing the farm entirely, using cutting edge technology to partially or even completely separate farming and food production from a reliance on an increasingly unstable climate.
    https://www.wunderground.com/news/can-science-feed-us-if-the-climate-fails?__prclt=RG66f4Vs

    Reply
  146. Greg

     /  October 12, 2016

    Surprise, surprise, surprise. How much longer before these become 1:10,000 year events?

    Reply

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