Haima, A Storm Nearly as Powerful as Haiyan, Barrels Toward Philippines

As of the most recent update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, minimum central pressures in Super Typhoon Haima had plunged to 900 hPa. That’s nearly as low as those for Typhoon Haiyan at peak strength (895 hPa). Haima is running in toward the northern Philippines packing maximum sustained winds of 160 mph with gusts to 190 mph (somewhat lower than Haiyan’s peak sustained winds of 185 mph). As a result, we have a storm following a similar track to the comparable strength 2013 super-typhoon which caused so much severe loss and damage during 2013.

haima

(Haima strengthens over hotter than normal ocean waters as it tracks towards the Philippines. Image source: NOAA.)

Record Hot Global Ocean Conditions A Contributing Factor

Like Haiyan, Haima has emerged over much warmer than normal waters in the range of 1-2 C above average temperature. Warmer waters at depth have also helped to allow Haima to reach an intensity that rivals Haiyan as well as aid its potential extreme strength at landfall. Haima also follows just days after a major hurricane strike by Sarika to the south Philippines as a Category 4 storm. An event which displaced 15,000 people and has resulted in the tragic loss of at least 2 lives.

Only unusually high ocean heat content and high atmospheric moisture levels — as those that have now become more prevalent due to human-forced climate change — could support such a back-to-back strike by powerful storms of this kind running along similar ocean tracks. Typically, a single strong storm would be enough to deplete the oceanic heat and atmospheric moisture stores that serve as fuel for such intense tropical systems. Through the process of Ekman pumping, storms tend to pull up cooler waters from below the surface and leave them behind in their wake. And this is one of the chief reasons why major hurricanes or typhoons do not typically follow one right after another. But in the new world created by human fossil fuel burning this is less and less the case. Ocean heat and atmospheric moisture fuel for these storms abound. And the waters are warmer at depth, so upwelling of cooler waters can become less of an inhibiting factor. So risks for abnormally intense events are higher.

extreme-sea-surface-temperatures-haima

(Sea surface temperatures in the range of 29 to 31 C or 1-2 C above average have helped to fuel Haima and Sarika’s extreme intensity. Unfortunately for the Philippines, waters warm just off shore as these storms have approached — providing a lift to storm strength just prior to landfall. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

Haima is expected to make landfall in the northern Philippines late on the 19th as a super-typhoon packing 155+ maximum sustained winds, severe rains and an extreme storm surge. Very warm waters in the range of 30 degrees Celsius and low wind shear in Haima’s path also add the possibility for continued strengthening in the 24 hours prior to landfall. As such, this is a very dangerous situation and all interests along the path of this terrible storm should monitor its progress closely and heed any evacuation warnings issued by emergency officials.

Links:

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

NOAA

Earth Nullschool

Typhoon Haiyan

Super Typhoon Haiyan

2016 Pacific Cyclones

Sarika Strikes Philippines

Hat tip to Colorado Bob

 

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76 Comments

  1. Seventh Cat 5 storm this year, that’s almost double the usual.

    Reply
    • 5th in the Pacific which is above normal as well. Though we had 9 cat 5s last year in the Pacific. This year’s storms appear to be developing closer to land and tracking inland. It also doesn’t help that we’ve had 41 tropical depressions so far this year. Lots of opportunities for large storms to form.

      Reply
  2. Reply
  3. Ridley Jack

     /  October 18, 2016

    Hey Mr Scribble some point this week you should write a post of the king high tides http://www.local10.com/weather/king-tide-rolls-through-fort-lauderdale-miami-beach

    Have a great night!

    Reply
  4. Reply
    • Interesting political side note here:

      Reply
      • Genomik

         /  October 19, 2016

        That’s possibly very important. Philippines is almost like America’s 51st state. They love us there and we have a loooong history there, much of it good. Its strategic as heck.

        If the Chinese win in this battle of friendship because of this Typhoon (and other extreme weather) it may mark a major climate induced political change. That in itself is very profound. Climate change obviously affecting Geopolitics!

        It might be a good thing to an extent, Philippines is a close neighbor of China. With all the crazy weather Philippines, Taiwan and China have been getting it might make sense for them to work together anyways.

        Reply
        • Who knows what and how things will unfold.
          China has been flexing its muscle in that, and nearby, regions.
          The current PH/Prez (and attendant political regime) may be an unwieldy ‘stink bomb the CH want to avoid.
          Then again, CH may be just as happy to leave things as they are with the US saddled.
          Thanks for your input, Genomik– as we are in a time of changes.

        • Cate

           /  October 19, 2016

          Meanwhile in Canada…

          JT curries favour with the Chinese billionaire’s club, currently touring the country and suggesting that some of our “rules” be “relaxed” to allow them to do business more easily here. They’ve also expressed disapproval of the new foreign buyers’ tax on home purchases in BC, which is designed to cool down a market now overpriced for locals in the face of big Chinese money pouring into Vancouver real estate.

          They’re particularly interested in green energy? Oh, what a coincidence. How can anyone object to that! Let’s forget about human rights and who needs democracy, let’s push all that into a corner for now and call it a “sensitive issue”, nothing more. No need to lose our heads, when there is so much money to be made and such big friends to cultivate.

          http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/chinese-investors-interested-in-canadian-clean-technology-1.3811115

        • mulga mumblebrain

           /  October 20, 2016

          ‘…much of it good?”. Like the thousands slaughtered during the repression of the Philippines uprising at the dawn of the 20th century. In some areas that included killing every male over ten, and free use of the ‘water cure’, nowadays known as ‘water-boarding’. It is far preferable that the Philippines maintains good relations with all its neighbours (as you note) and a non-servile friendship with the USA.

        • mulga mumblebrain

           /  October 20, 2016

          Cate, I won’t go on about the inappropriateness of the West, with its record, past and present, lecturing anyone about ‘human rights’ and ‘democracy’, (itself impossible in any meaningful sense under capitalism), but just observe that the Chinese are doing more than anyone to reduce the cost of renewable energy, and are moving away from fossil fuels (albeit not fast enough). Moreover if we are to survive we need China’s money, technology, and co-operation, and that requires good-will, not endless lecturing and the spending of billions by the USA to foment internal discord inside China.

  5. We are doing a fine job of cooking the planet with CO2 emissions directly, we don’t really need help from methane, but The Siberian Times has a story that suggests methane release in Arctic has increased. I didn’t see direct link to the Semiletov study. maybe it was there, I was just skimming.

    http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0760-arctic-methane-gas-emission-significantly-increased-since-2014-major-new-research/

    Daily CO2

    October 14, 2016: 401.81 ppm
    October 14, 2015: 398.70 ppm

    co2.earth shows we continue to crank along at rate of increase of 3 ppm plus. If we were smart and cautious, we would do what it takes to make the rate of increase zero. I don’t think we are smart and cautious. I think there is good argument that our species is clever.

    Warm regards

    Mike

    Reply
    • Big CO2 jump on the way this year. The 400 ppm line will soon be far behind us. 350 is further and further removed. At the current pace (averaged) we hit 450 in about 2 decades. If emissions growth is not halted (or Earth system responses kick in a bit more), 450 in 15 years is a very real possibility.

      Reply
  6. – Sea Level Rise Upping Ante On ‘Sunny Day’ Floods
    Research Report by Climate Central

    Parts of the Atlantic Coast are still recovering from the onslaught of Hurricane Matthew, but even more flooding is on the way as local tides will reach some of their highest points of the year. With little chance to recover between events, coastal cities are facing a constant reminder that climate change has already tipped the scales toward more frequent and bigger floods.

    When the earth, moon, and sun are in perfect alignment, gravity pulls the oceans to their highest tides, often afflicting coastal communities with minor or nuisance flooding that can close roads, inundate local businesses, erode beaches and cause sewage overflows. And as global warming accelerates sea level rise, these floods — often called sunny day floods — are increasing; in many locations they’re occurring 10 or 20 times a year.
    http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-increases-sunny-day-floods-20784?utm_content=buffera7dbd&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Reply
  7. climatehawk1

     /  October 19, 2016

    Tweet scheduled.

    Reply
  8. coloradobob

     /  October 19, 2016

    Reply
  9. The kind of fanaticism involved in Mosul is the same extremism being shown at the Dakota pipeline.

    Reply
  10. Meanwhile and fossil fuels and wildfires SoCal USA :

    Reply
    • Reply
      • Cate

         /  October 19, 2016

        “50 years on it is hard not to be horrified by the multiple failures of management that led to this catastrophe.”

        Hard to believe it’s 50 years come Friday. I remember my mother standing by the kitchen radio and weeping at the news. She had no Welsh connections.

        Excellent find—thanks, dt.

        Reply
        • lesliegraham1

           /  October 19, 2016

          Strange you should say that. I was just this minute saying to my wife that I was 10 years old and it is the only recollection I had of my Mother actually crying at something being reported in a newspaper. She was a tough old bird – survived the blitz and a direct hit – but all those children being buried alive was too much even for her.

        • Cate

           /  October 20, 2016

          lesliegraham, both our mothers had a natural, visceral response to this horrible news, but beyond that, I wonder did they also suspect, even then, and maybe just intuitively as mothers, the terrible senselessness and waste of this very unnatural and completely human-caused disaster.

      • Jacque

         /  October 19, 2016

        “On October 21, 1966, the nation was brought to its knees when a massive coal waste tip crashed down the mountainside of Welsh mining village, killing 116 children and 28 adults.

        With an almighty roar the black avalanche engulfed everything in its path, including Pantglas Junior School, where lessons had just begun.

        Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3846576/Haunting-pictures-horror-Aberfan-50-years-ago-ex-pupil-emotional-reunion-rescuers-pulled-buried-primary-school-116-children-28-adults-died.html#ixzz4NYDwuNYq
        Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

        Reply
        • Cate

           /  October 20, 2016

          We all know this song is not about Aberfan, but about an earlier Welsh mining disaster. Its message is, sadly, alive and well—-questioning the callous disregard of the powerful for the people who live, work, and die in terrible conditions to create wealth for the masters of the universe. Aberfan is here and now.

  11. Ryan in New England

     /  October 19, 2016

    Just an off topic personal observation, since my local conditions are unbelievable, and record breaking. I woke up to a low of 67 this morning…25 degrees above normal. And today will be our third day of 80+ degree temps. It’s also humid, birds are singing like it’s Spring, and everything (except the fall foliage) feels like mid-summer. Completely nuts. And the local news keep doing their best to remind people how “amazing” this is ad how “lucky” we are to get to enjoy this beautiful weather. Not a word about the fact that this is an indication of climate disruption, or the mess we’re in. Oh, and by the way, we are in a severe drought, with no relief in sight.

    Reply
    • Cate

       /  October 19, 2016

      Ryan, that is crazy weather indeed for a New England fall. We’ve had a very warm Sept and October, although the daytime temps have now started yo-yoing, high to low, one day to the next. The really odd thing here is night-time temps. They are well above where they should be for this time of year, consistently above average. We have had only one hard frost so far, and it’s since been cancelled by plenty of warmer weather.

      Reply
      • wili

         /  October 19, 2016

        It’s been about 15 degrees F above long term averages here in MN, but we seem to be returning to something like normal now.

        Reply
      • As usual, not quite so crazy here in east central Vermont, though also warmer and more humid than usual. We’ve been in a lesser drought condition and are getting pretty good rainfall right now (today and yesterday).

        Reply
    • Spike

       /  October 19, 2016

      We get the same in the UK – the frogs in the media enthuse that they’re comfortably warm, ignoring the prospect tht they’re en route to being boiled.

      Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  October 20, 2016

      Ryan, the role of the MSM in suppressing the reality of rapid climate destabilisation has been vile, but ever so predictable. Here in southern Australia, the weather is most peculiar, a fact that farmers everywhere are actually beginning to complain about (while still voting for the total denialists of the National Party, who are owned these days by the coal industry),but nary a word is ever mentioned concerning climate destabilisation, save for two categories. One, of course, is the still fanatic total denialists, centred on the Murdoch apparatus and the Rightwing Liberal and National Parties. The so-called ‘Left’ Labor Party, that acknowledged the catastrophe as ‘the greatest moral imperative of the age’, ten years ago, has been cowed into silence by the ferocious Rightwing backlash, but they have been ‘useful idiots’ and moral cowards for decades, so no surprise there.
      And secondly, a few MSM types mention ‘climate change’ but only in passing, and with no sense of its disastrous immediacy and hideously rapid progress. It is treated as a matter of no great significance, whatsoever, something we can deal with at our leisure, always ensuring, naturally, that the Great God ‘Growth’ is never interfered with. It’s a Through the Looking-Glass world wherever you look.

      Reply
  12. wili

     /  October 19, 2016

    I hadn’t noticed this before. We seem to have crossed an albedo tipping point in the Arctic in 2010, and we are nearly off the charts this year. See especially the second graph at this link: https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/warming-potential/graphs

    Reply
  13. A few articles before, Colorado Bob wrote in a comment that if those protesters were in Brasil, they´d be dead… and I replyed that I would like to object to that but I couldn´t.

    Today I´ve had another example of why not (article in Portuguese: http://sustentabilidade.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,secretario-assassinado-em-altamira-estava-ameacado-de-morte,10000082132 ). Luiz Alberto Araújo, environmental counsellor of Altamira, a city in the Arch of Fire (the deforestation frontier) of Brasil, a man who was trying his best to stop illegal deforestation in his city was killed on thursday 13/10 (I´ve had notice of his dead today). He had been receiving death threats by deforesters for some years now.

    News in Brasil today are also talking of the murder of all familiars (mother, brother and two nephews) of a police officer in Rio de Janeiro, vengeance of drug trafficers he arrested.

    I have some notion that this shouldn´t be happening in a “normal” country, but life goes on like always. And I´ve been thinking about this for a while, and would like to known the oppinion of you about it. We talk about how most change is gradual, and the ‘frog in boiling water” effect of it.

    The temperatures rise, but, as Ryan said, ” local news keep doing their best to remind people how “amazing” this is ad how “lucky” we are to get to enjoy this beautiful weather” (we already reached 35C here in São Paulo today, temps that should be only in the middle of summer, not the spring. But at least the radio host mentioned climate change). The artic ice declines, but it won´t dissapear completly in an year, it will dwindle slowly, with a fake recovery some years, until it goes after a decade or so. People complain about frigid weather and say it “proves” that climate change doesn´t exist, because they can´t remember winter anymore. Hey, I can´t remember winter, there hasn´t been a normal one since I was born.

    Violence, though, is brutal, and we often think of it as sudden. But what if it´s gradual too? There won´t be a revolution, but just a slow worsening, not a “zombie apocalipse” (actual zombies not involved) but just a slow degradation?

    Being in contact with people and ideas of abroad makes me see how brutal my country is.
    For example: I´m a very calm and pacific person for brasilian standards. Even though I´m a cop, I´ve only had to draw my weapon from the holster twice, and never had to shoot. I´ve counseled calm for my colleagues a lot of times during missions (there´s the joke that I always will be right on that, until the day I ain´t). But a few weeks ago, when a delivery men “casually” (but meaning it) mentioned that the forest near my house was ripe for being invaded, good place to erect a favela house, I “casually” (but meaning it) mentioned how I was a police officer, a fed, and my scores in the shooting range. A “casual” conversation, with not-so-veiled threats, that I known shouldn´t take place in civilized society, but was completly normal here. Threats said and countered, we joked a little, and the delivery men had a coca-cola and cheese-breads before leaving, the “cordial facade” was mantained. Life goes on.

    Another example: I play RPG, specially World of Darkness ones. I´ve bought one book of ready made characters from Onys Path (US based, US and european authors). The World of Darkness line is about playing characters that are also monsters (vampires, werewolves, wraiths, fae, etc), so, it´s already a bit violent. But one of the characters in the book was just surreal. Not the character per si, but the fact that he had survived. The character was a psycophatic idiot that killed people just because he liked (bus full of children, train full of cops, all the family of an anarchist friend he made, etc), and was easily captured… he was captured “alive” (it was a vampire) four times in the prelude. The surreal part: he was just freed everytime. No one in a society of monsters killed him, “fearing for their humanity”. I passed the book along to friends of mine, asking the same question: do you see any possibility of this character surviving an encounter with ANY character of yours? My friends are brasilian, they unanimously said no. If I met someone like this in the real life I´d think about killing him, in a game were people play monsters… but for the british author of that character, the idea that no one would kill a person that was already imobilized was so natural that the story don´t seen surreal.

    Brasil is more violent than most of the rest of the world, but it doesn´t feel like it. We have far more murders here than there are deaths in the Palestine/Israel conflict, but jew friends that travelled to kibutz in Israel felt like they were in a war zone, while here things are ok. Even in very violent cities in the Arch of Fire, most of the time I´ve felt safe. We get used to violence. It doesn´t shock anymore.

    I wonder how long feelings like that can last. Violence had been dwindling, in the statistics, but it has reached a level, and I known it will probably go up, with all the problems happening in the world. I don´t expect humanity´s extinction, but I do think we´re in the path of civilization collapse if bussiness as usual continues.

    “Collapse” seems like a sudden word, but what if all there is is withering? Maybe it´s even best, as pretense of civilization can be basis for civilization reforming. But will everything “feel normal”, including future riots?

    Reply
    • Profound, Umbrios.

      Acceptance of violence: I think this has to do with a lot of things. The first being — where does power come from? For example, if use of violence in your society results in less power, more punishment, less social acceptance, more shaming, etc, then societies will tend to be less violent. In Europe, where history is replete with the failure and shame of violence — both on the individual and mass societal scale — we’ve seen decades where violence in societies has been greatly reduced. This is enabled by social structures, by social memes, and by the structures of law that push toward a less violent path. Access to firearms (legal or illegal) also has an effect as does whether or not entertainment media glorifies violence.

      Frontier civilizations tend to be more violent. Civilizations that exploit natural resources to a destructive degree tend to be more violent. Male-dominant, patriarchal civilizations tend to be more violent. Civilizations with large criminal factions or that host corporations that are more powerful than state and local governments tend to be more violent. Civilizations with high levels of inequality (real inequality/dictatorship — for example, despite communism, the old Soviet Union was highly stratified) tend to be more violent. Ideologically extreme civilizations tend to be more violent. Civilizations undergoing collapse tend to be more violent. Highly individualistic civilizations tend to be more violent. Subcultures and sub groups that express these traits will affect the parent civilization. (of course, there’s much more and this just scrapes the surface).

      I think Brazil suffers from an issue of corruption. The resource of the rainforest has been officially protected. However, for whatever reason, the government does not provide the necessary monies, personnel and leadership to enforce that protection. As a result, there is a state of semi-anarchy in the Arch of Fire region. Within this vacuum, economic powers that are independent of the state have emerged. These powers depend on the harmful exploitation and destruction of the rainforest for their cash flows. Such cash flows are strong enough to create a bribery relationship with politicians who essentially ‘look the other way’ and allow the unlawful development to continue. But where there is destructive power in a lawless or partially lawless state of anarchy, that power will often confront vigilante forces. In the case of the rainforest, these vigilante forces are often environmental interests and individuals working to protect the environment or prevent climate change. Since the state is effective anarchy, violent action is enabled and violent repression of environmental activists and others that have stood against those exploiting the rainforest has occurred. Activists are faced with a situation, in this anarchic state, in which they either arm and organize themselves with the ability to project effective group force (doesn’t have to be with traditional weapons or violent methods, any strong deterrent, even asymmetrical, may work if applied effectively [various anti-whaling efforts are a good example of what can be achieved with asymmetrical resistance and legal enforcement vs belligerant, even violent, actors]), or face a high risk of loss of life. Such organisation against powerful economic forces that are armed and coordinated is difficult but not impossible and often only requires large-scale coordination on the part of the previously preyed upon group to seek both internal resources to confront violence and to effectively leverage outside aid and support.

      One solution, of course, is removal of government corruption and a more active enforcement in the Arch of Fire region. But due to that very corruption, such a process is difficult. Brazil is, therefore, at a bit of a crossroads. If it continues to succumb to this corruption and the unlawful and harmful activity of those in the Arch of Fire, then the state will begin to lose internal support, the criminal agencies will gain the upper hand, the state will fall into a higher risk of undergoing a form of collapse. The state will, through this process, become more and more dependent upon the harmful resource exploitation practices of those wrecking the rainforest and the system promoting collapse will become self-sustaining.

      Overall, due to climate change, Brazil has somewhat less options in one sense. If there were more rainforests around the world that possessed the same essential carbon storing traits, then the situation would be less dire. Brasil could legalize some of the activities to reduce the power of the unlawful and violent interests. However, such action would result in a swifter destruction of the forest. Brasil’s choices at this point hinge on reducing corruption and actively enforcing laws to reduce the power of those profiting from harmful exploitation.

      However, the victimized environmentalists themselves represent a possible support for the state. Law enforcement could engage in covert activity to keep track of threats and attacks, set ambushes for raids against environmentalists, and actively incarcerate those who have communicated a threat to commit violence. Further, environmentalists can serve as or leverage an already active anti-poaching force across the globe. But in this case, it would be an issue of anti-tree poaching from the rainforest in the form of illegal slash and burn agriculture. This may not seem as hopeless as it at first appears — poaching, for example, is rife in Africa, but similar large-scale enforcement both by governments and by outside agencies has made gains in protecting species. However, I think that Brazil may need a cultural shift in which laws are held to a higher standard and people in general learn to respect and adhere to laws and help participate in enforcing the laws and to stand up against injustice more readily. This is tough, requiring a change of thinking and a more cooperative and less individualistic mindset. And when stepping out and speaking out results in risk of loss of life, the threat of violence has always been a powerful de-motivator. The thing to remember here is that silence begets more violence. That silence enables it. Speaking out, may result in a violent response, but it also shines a light on the injustice. And if enough people speak out and act together, then the system that supports the violence can be overcome.

      The thing to remember here is that individual reprisals are not the effective actions. It’s the application of and organisation of societal forces and laws that most effectively reduce the ability of bad actors to use violence to harm or victimize the populace. If enough people decide that such activity is unacceptable and act and organize to confront it, then the structures supporting the destructive activity will fail.

      As an aside, World of Darkness may be an apt metaphor for what some of us confront in this world. The game is dark and exists in an effective state of anarchy and inequality where rulership is by the strong and the weak are victimized. In other words, there are very real-world vampires out there preying on the weak. And we have a situation like that in Brazil right now with respect to the forests and the environmentalists seeking to protect them.

      Reply
      • coloradobob

         /  October 19, 2016

        WOW , what great and thoughtful exchange.

        Reply
      • mulga mumblebrain

         /  October 20, 2016

        Environmentalists, unionists and social activists (real ones, not the product of Soros or the NED)are killed in their thousands every year, around the world. Not just Brazil, but Honduras, Guatemala (still, after 60 years), Mexico, Colombia, South Africa, the Philippines etc. All for one basic reason-they got in the way of some ‘businessman’s ‘ greed, either to protect the biosphere, or their communities. There is the root of all evil-insatiable greed. There is no problem finding the required psychopaths to do the killing, and they can even be organised into armies, like Daash, where every abomination known to wickedness is effected without conscience. As the environment collapses, as the debt-ridden global economy implodes under the weight of inequality, poverty and elite wealth and as desperate refugees flee war and ecological collapse, the prospects are grim indeed. The first step to avert this final catastrophe is to create an economic and social order based on equality, compassion and justice, and that is not and cannot be capitalism in any shape or form.

        Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  October 19, 2016

      Umbrios.

      Courage.

      Reply
    • So the thing to remember is that, in lieu of some very large and powerful internal disruption or external forcing, collapse often tends to occur when societies engage in self-destructive/harmful behavior, when that behavior tends to be internally or externally enabled and rewarded, and when the destructive behavior produces enough harms to eventually severely disrupt or destroy civilization support structures. That’s basically what it boils down to.

      Collapse generally progresses slowly at first, unless the harms are initially egregious, sudden and significant (which is rarer, but can happen — generally by physical destruction of material resources or by some sudden major disruption to social/organizational supports or a combination of the two). After various social, resource, and resiliency tipping points are reached, collapse tends to move very swiftly.

      Reply
      • Yes, corruption is the root problem here in Brasil. “Helping friends” is considered more noble than “following the law”, and the idea that the law is just a suggestion is a widespread one.

        In the hopeful side, this has been changing, and in an astonishing velocity, actually… When I was born, Brasil was a dictatorship where billionaires could hire the police to torture and kill bothersome university students while the billionaires watched eating popcorn (I´m not kidding). Today, we´re not only in a democracy, but some of those billionaires are dressed in orange, locked in prisons.

        Incredible change in 37 years, but it doesn´t feel fast enough. And my doubt is whether this will keep changing towards the good side. As far as “society” and “peoples will” go, it seems to. People are striving to be better, and to have a better country. It´s easier to known about “what could be” nowdays, easier to watch what´s going on, easier to make plans together with like-minded people. Technology aids a lot.

        Outside technology, there´s a change in the institutions too. People who have been educated during the fall of the dictatorship, are reaching positions of power, and many of those have, like me, been taught values that are far different of the norm during the militar era. And people in position to do so are acting, applying laws that existed before, but were thought about as there “for the englishmen to see” (I´m literally translating a common brasilian expression, but I guess the gist of it is clear). And it seems that society wants that, with public opinion rejoycing. If we had 37 more “clear sky” years ahead, I´d be sure that Brasil would be a civilised society in the end.

        But I don´t think we´ll have the luxury of 37 easy years ahead, not in Brasil, nor in the world (I compare my country with the EUA and Europe because we strive to be better, but there are lots of worse and more violent places in the world too, with a longer path due to civilization).

        Some countries are already collapsing, like Somalia, Siria, Iraq and Venezuela. Refugees will come… in Brasil we received refugees from Haiti, and now we are receiving refuges from Venezuela (they´re called refugees here, because our law about it is a bit different from ONU´s recommendations. Here one can be an refugee because of natural disaster), so there´s no silly excuses of “these people are here because war destroyed their homes”, it was not war that destroyed those homes, it was environmental disasters (and, in Venezuela´s case, political lunacy).

        Stories from venezuelans tell of a country that seemed normal until very few years ago, some would insist it is still ok, even when people are dying of hunger not because they can´t pay for food (most refuges are not poor, but educated middle class, with university diplomas and technical skills), but because there´s no food. Not a collapse, but a withering. Government still exists, even, but…

        We are in a race between civilization and destruction. It´s not only renewables vs fossil fuels, but two very different societies and outcomes. As long as the race is going, I fear, changes will be subtle, no clear advantage for any side. In a way, that´s good, leaving the structure for civilization to grown in place. In another way, it´s bad. As long as things can seem normal, there will be people insisting that they´re normal and doing nothing or worse.

        …….
        He, the World of Darkness is a pretty good metaphor, true. Though my gaming group sometimes jest that some of the “dark” scenarios painted are a bit more colorful and joyful than reality… It would be nice if all we had to battle was the Wyrm, and best of all, we´d have mysthical powers to do it.

        Reply
      • mulga mumblebrain

         /  October 20, 2016

        Ugo Bardi talks of ‘Seneca’s Cliff’, after the Roman thinker Seneca, who observed that while ‘progress’ is slow and hard-won, collapse is often rapid and accelerating. We can see the beginnings of that collapse at present, and the signs of the fatal, synergistic, acceleration also commencing. When you have spent 200 years carving through the planet’s biospheres with ever greater technological means, the collapse is simply a matter of when, and that appears to be NOW.

        Reply
  14. Greg

     /  October 19, 2016

    Reply
  15. USA — Some headlines for today’s October heat wave that may mean life will be uncomfortable for some. Be careful.

    The heat quotient may also reinforce the A and the W in AGW.
    TALLY HO

    ###
    – October Heat Wave: 99 Records Topple in One Day

    – Unseasonably warm weather is sweeping across the South and the Northeast, breaking records in dozens of cities, as experts blame climate change.

    – Temps increase by double-digits, heat wave hits San Diego

    Reply
    • – But, will the subject enter into tonight’s presidential debate?

      Reply
      • Let’s hope it’s not in the form of ‘look at the great weather we’re having…’

        99 records in one day fall. It’s not fall anymore when it’s 85 degrees in October in the Northeastern US.

        Reply
      • June

         /  October 19, 2016

        Probably not, dt, with Fox News’ Chris Wallace as moderator. It is just going to be a down and dirty spectacle, far from a debate. It is such a missed opportunity, not only to highlight the policy differences, but just to give visibility to the issue as an (the) important priority to tackle. All other issues will be negatively impacted as climate change impacts continue to increase. Activists of all stripes – environmental, economic justice, social justice, anti-war – need to incorporate that message into their own, and join forces. It is the only way to combat the power of the ff industry, their right-wing megaphones, and the complicity of the media conglomerates.

        Reply
  16. Greg

     /  October 19, 2016

    Messaging is rapidly becoming controlled by automated machinery and software. Beware!

    Reply
      • Why does this not surprise me…

        You know, I’ve had my own active response to bots ongoing for some time now. If you know what to look for, they’re pretty easy to weed out. It just takes work and an active hand. The bots focus on meme generation, agitation, and generating apathetic responses. This activity produces patterns that are pretty easy to single out.

        Reply
        • Greg

           /  October 19, 2016

          Thank you Robert for being a Sentinel and making this forum so much richer! It will get harder in the future as AI makes these bots more sophisticated and the game will be upped back and forth.

        • It’s already happened. But the bots can’t really act outside the parameter of a traditional operative. And it’s operative behavior that I target. It can get subtle, though. Stuff sometimes gets through.

        • Many thanks for battling the bots, Robert.
          ‘Operative behavior’ indeed.🙂

  17. Greg

     /  October 19, 2016

    OT but the Europeans appear, just now, to have successfully landed for the fist time a lander on Mars. If it takes wisdom learned from other planets to care for our own, so be it.

    Reply
  18. Greg

     /  October 19, 2016

    Robert, looks like parts of southeastern Virginia as well.

    Reply
  19. coloradobob

     /  October 19, 2016

    Research: Who’s Lobbying Congress on Climate Change

    Between 2006 and 2009, the firms in our sample spent over $1 billion dollars lobbying on climate-related bills and issues. In our data, the usual suspects were most active in climate lobbying: companies in the automobiles and parts sector spent an average of approximately $1.8 million lobbying against climate change-related regulations per year, followed by the utilities sector ($1.1 million), oil and gas sector ($0.8 million), and basic resources sector ($0.8 million).
    https://hbr.org/2016/10/research-whos-lobbying-congress-on-climate-change?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20harvardbusiness%20%28HBR.org%29

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  October 19, 2016

      We focused on the years 2006 to 2009, as it was a period of intense climate lobbying — the American Clean Energy and Security Act passed in the House of Representatives in June 2009, but was not taken up in the Senate. There have been no major climate bills since then, despite some initiatives to combat climate change in the Obama administration.

      Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  October 20, 2016

      Bob, this is evidence of the findings of the recent Gilens and Page study, that showed that the US Congress follows the desires of the ruling oligarchy in 97% or so of instances, and that of the populace, as measured by polls of public opinion, in the other 3% of occasions. Hardly surprising as the oligarchs make the vast bulk of the ‘contributions’, and provide the most lucrative retirement opportunities.

      Reply
  20. Greg

     /  October 19, 2016

    Not sure what to make of this.

    Reply
  21. Greg

     /  October 19, 2016

    What it is like right now in a very strong structure (concrete) building in the middle of Haima right now. The sound of the storm is eerie. Can’t imagine being outside.

    Reply
  22. Amy Goodman is famous and riot charges were dropped. This woman reporter isn’t which is why her charges have not been dropped.

    ‘I Was Doing My Job’: Climate Reporter Facing 45 Years Speaks Out
    Deia Schlosberg, filmmaker arrested for documenting climate protest, says she believes felony charges are ‘unjust’

    http://commondreams.org/news/2016/10/18/i-was-doing-my-job-climate-reporter-facing-45-years-speaks-out

    The filmmaker facing a lengthy prison sentence for documenting a nonviolent civil disobedience action last week has spoken out on behalf of journalism, the First Amendment, and the global climate movement.

    Deia Schlosberg, an independent filmmaker and climate reporter, was arrested last week in Walhalla, North Dakota for filming the unprecedented #ShutItDown protest held in solidarity with the Dakota Access Pipeline protests.

    “Journalism needs to be passionately and ethically pursued and defended if we are to remain a free democratic country.”
    —Deia Schlosberg, filmmaker

    “When I was arrested, I was doing my job,” Schlosberg said in a statement released Tuesday. “I was reporting. I was documenting. Journalism needs to be passionately and ethically pursued and defended if we are to remain a free democratic country. Freedom of the press, guaranteed by the First Amendment, is absolutely critical to maintaining an informed citizenry, without which, democracy is impossible.”

    According to documentarian Josh Fox, whose new film Schlosberg produced,

    She was held for 48 hours before being allowed to speak to a lawyer. The authorities confiscated her footage. She is now charged with three counts of felony conspiracy and faces a possible sentence of up to 45 years.

    Saying she believes the charges “are unjust,” Schlosberg offered a passionate defense of independent journalism that’s covering the most important issues of our time:

    I am a climate reporter; my specialty is following the story of how humankind is creating a grave problem for civilization by continuing to flood the atmosphere with greenhouse gases through the burning of fossil fuels and other industrial processes. I don’t think there is nearly enough reporting on climate change nor the movement of people around the world working to lessen the impacts of climate change.

    It is the responsibility of journalists and reporters to document newsworthy events, and it is particularly important for independent media to tell the stories that mainstream media is not covering. The mainstream did not break the story on fracking nor did it break the story about what is happening at the Standing Rock reservation in North Dakota, nor the stories told in my most recent film with Josh Fox, How to Let Go of the World and Love All the Things Climate Can’t Change. Accordingly, I felt I had a duty to document the unprecedented #ShutItDown climate action, which stopped all Canadian oil sands from entering the United States. Canadian oil sands importation is a controversial issue that is not getting the coverage it warrants, especially considering that the extraction and use of oil sands has a profound impact on every person on this planet.

    Schlosberg concluded by drawing attention to fellow videographers Lindsey Grayzel and Carl Davis, who were arrested in Washington state last week for filming the same action and also face preliminary felony charges. Grayzel told Reuters that her footage was also confiscated. “For reporters who are simply doing their job, which is their constitutionally protected right, to be facing such charges is an outrage,” she said.

    On Monday, North Dakota dismissed riot charges against Democracy Now! journalist Amy Goodman. The development drew praise, though Reporters Without Borders noted that the charges “never should have been filed in the first place.”

    Schlosberg also posted a short video on Facebook over the weekend, thanking people for their support and vowing to “say more in the coming days and weeks.” Watch below: AT LINK

    Reply
  23. I add this GOA centered bit — a couple more linkages can be had at AM’s Twitter.

    Anthony Masiello ‏@antmasiello 12m12 minutes ago

    Since 1979, there has been a warming trend in the GOA. Correlations are weakest at times when it’s colder, interestingly.

    Reply
  24. An election rigged by plankton:

    Reply

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