There’s a La Nina Developing — So Why is the World Still Heating Up?

Long term, there’s no doubt what’s in control of the world’s temperature trend. The vast belching of greenhouse gasses by fossil fuel industry and related non-renewable based machinery has caused atmospheric carbon levels to hit 405 ppm CO2 and 490 ppm CO2e this year. All this added carbon has caused the world to warm by a record 1.22 C since 1880s levels during 2016 (approx). But superimposed over this long term warming trend is the natural variability based ebb and flow of atmospheric and surface ocean heat that is the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.

ENSO — A Wave Pattern Overlying the Long Term Warming Trend

Think of it as a smaller wave pattern that overlaps the current global upswing in temperatures. As El Nino builds and comes into the fore, natural forcings caused by periodic ocean surface warming in the Equatorial Pacific push global temperatures higher. This tends to add to the human forced global warming trend. So, often, El Nino years are also record warm years.

global-temperatures-enso

(El Nino to La Nina temperature variations create a wavy pattern in the overall global warming trend. Note — the record warm year of 2016 is not included in this graph. Image source: NOAA.)

Conversely, La Nina, which generates a periodic cooling in the Equatorial Pacific tends to pull a bit against the long term warming trend. So periods of La Nina tend to show average global atmospheric temperatures in the annual measure drop off by about 0.2 to 0.4 C from the peak periods of atmospheric heating during El Nino. Of course, since the ENSO variability typically follows a range of +0.2 C to -0.2 C but does not affect long term temperature trends, it only takes about a decade for La Nina years to be about as warm as recent El Nino years.

Slight Warming During Fall of 2016 Despite La Nina

During fall of 2015 and the winter and spring of 2016 a powerful El Nino helped to push global surface temperatures into new record high ranges. This happened because greenhouse gasses the world over had been loading heat into the Earth System for some time and the strong El Nino served as a kind of trip wire that opened the flood gates for a surge of atmospheric heat. Which is why 2016 will be about 1.22 C hotter than 1880s temperatures (1 C hotter than NASA 20th Century baseline temps) and why the years from 2011 to 2016 will average above 1 C hotter than 1880s values overall (0.8 C hotter than 20th Century baselines).

But now, with the 2016 El Nino in the rear view mirror and with a La Nina forming in the Pacific, we would expect global temperatures to cool down somewhat. For the most part, this has happened. Back in January and February, monthly average temperatures were as much as 1.5 C above 1880s averages. Since summer, the averages have dipped to around 1 to 1.1 C above 1880s values.

gfs_anomaly_timeseries_global

(Global temperatures bottomed out at around 1 C above 1880s or 0.4 C above the 1981 to 2010 average in this GFS based graph by Karsten Haustein during June then began to slowly climb through fall even as a weak La Nina began to develope.)

With La Nina continuing to form, we would expect these monthly values to continue to fall for a bit as La Nina strengthened. But that doesn’t appear to be happening. Instead, global atmospheric temperatures bottomed out at around 1 to 1.1 C above 1880s levels in June, July, August and September and now they appear to be rebounding.

Polar Amplification Signal Shows Up as a Blip in the Global Measure

In other words, we see a rise in the global temperature trend when we should see a steady counter-trend decline forced by natural variability.

Why is this happening?

The climate evidence points to a rather obvious set of suspects. First, the long term Pacific Decadal Oscillation value has continued to push into the positive range. And this state would tend to favor more heat radiating back into the atmosphere from the ocean surface.

However, if you look at the global climate maps, the major anomaly drivers are not coming from the Pacific, but from the poles. For this fall saw extreme warming both in the northern and southern polar regions of the world. Today, temperature anomalies in both the Arctic and the Antarctic were 5.84 and 4.19 C above average respectively. A rough average between the two poles of +5 C for these high latitude regions. As we’ve mentioned many times before, such severe warming is an obvious signal of climate change based polar amplification where temperatures at the poles warm faster relative to the rest of the Earth during the first phase of greenhouse gas forced warming.

extreme-polar-amplification-november-4

(Extreme warming of the polar regions continued on November 4 of 2016. This warming is pushing against the La Nina trend which would tend to cool the world temporarily. Image source: Climate Reanalyzer.)

By themselves, these abnormally high temperatures at the poles would be odd enough. But when taking into account that La Nina should still be cooling the globe off, it starts to look like this severe polar warming has jostled the La Nina cooling signal a bit — turning it back toward warming by late fall. And if that is what’s really happening, then it would imply that the natural variability signal that is produced by ENSO is starting to be over-ridden by polar amplification based influences. In other words, there appears to be another signal that’s starting to intrude as a polar amplification based temperature spike.

It’s something that has popped up from time to time as a blip in the observational data over the past few years. But fall of 2016 provides one of the stronger signals so far. And it’s a signal related to a set of feedbacks that have the potential to affect the overall pace of planetary warming. Something to definitely keep an eye on.

Links:

NOAA

Karsten Haustein

Climate Reanalyzer

NOAA El Nino

Hat tip to June

Hat tip to ClimateHawk1

Hat tip to JCH

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190 Comments

  1. Dave Dunniway

     /  November 4, 2016

    Living in Seattle and we just came off our wettest October on record.

    What’s what’s more alarming, and what no one is really talking about, is that if you use weather.com or Accuweather, we aren’t forecasted to have a an evening freeze until the beginning of January. The fact we haven’t had one yet is something I’ve never remembered. Sure the days are chilly, and we bounce around between 40s and 50s so it seems cold… but nothing has froze yet and won’t for two more months… at least that’s the forecast. I find this quite remarkable.

    Reply
    • 200 miles north of Seattle, our October rainfall was about 5 times what we got last October!
      and the rains continue…..

      Reply
      • The storm track appears to have shifted north. But even as it has, it has broadened and intensified. The region from Seattle through NW Canada and on into SE Alaska are all getting hammered.

        Reply
  2. Genomik

     /  November 4, 2016

    This seems legit and a great way to raise awareness and money. Hope this is ok to post here as I think this movie has been great and a lot of my friends have watched it and are therefore becoming more aware of our extreme challenges.

    For every use of #BeforeTheFlood across Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram between October 24 – November 18, 21st Century Fox and National Geographic will together donate $1 to Pristine Seas and $1 to the Wildlife Conservation Society, up to $50,000 to each organization.

    http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/before-the-flood/interactives/share-beforetheflood-to-raise-money-how-it-works/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Social&utm_term=video_fbch20161030FullFilm&utm_content=BTF

    Reply
    • wili

       /  November 5, 2016

      My only hesitation is that NatGeo was just taken over by Murdoch, iirc.

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  November 5, 2016

        wili, if that’s the case, NatGeo goes on my watchlist.

        Reply
      • Genomik

         /  November 7, 2016

        I was wondering about that myself. Is NatGeo maintaining editorial independence?
        When I first heard about the purchase last year I was angry but when I looked into it I found NatGeo was losing money and readership and it was all bad.
        So a deep pocketed company purchasing them was probably necessary.
        I do recall seeing back then that lots of independence was asked by NatGeo. This movie seems like a great climate message and this type of marketing can be effective.
        I really dislike, as we all do here, Murdoch. I’ve still got an open mind on NatGeo unless I hear otherwise but they are on my watch list as well. I guess my optimistic side thinks he likes to make money and so sells what the audience buys into.

        Reply
      • John S

         /  November 7, 2016

        The buyout was last year, supposedly it was about News Ltd getting their hands on the TV channel licenses owned by NG….yeah right!

        When I had a look there seemed to be more blogs with subtle and not so subtle ‘green’ BAU agendas, often mixed in with really good environmental articles (comments usually hammered by trolls)

        And then some blatant BAU. e.g.
        http://environment.nationalgeographic.com.au/environment/energy/great-energy-challenge/arctic-map/
        btw click and play the time-line tab, says it all about our arctic ice catastrophe

        The journal of the not-for-profit National Geographic Society since 1888 no more…RIP a great advocate for the planet?…tba

        Reply
      • So it’s being run by a section of the Murdoch empire that’s headed by Rupert’s son. They apparently have an official difference of opinion on climate change with the younger Murdoch agreeing that there’s a problem. He seems to have put his coverage where his mouth is with Nat Geo at least. However, given past activity by Murdoch agencies, a certain level of caution is more than worthwhile.

        De Caprio’s movie, however, is certainly helpful and I don’t see any harm that can come from promoting it.

        Also, as an aside, this was my B-day weekend and I treated myself to some episodes of the new Supergirl (Kara Zor-El) which both, in my opinion, got the female hero absolutely right (At least from my vantage. She reminds me a lot of Luthiel both in her compassionate and inclusive demeanor and in her positive relationship with her foster sister and powerful female figures in this particular setting.) all while bringing up climate change as a relevant underlying issue throughout the series. Some of the villains are what amounts to megalomaniacal eco-terrorists. But before you get all worked up, it ends up becoming a great statement on ‘ends justify the means thinking.’

        The group is led by Astra, who is Kara (supergirl’s aunt). Astra is a very sympathetic villain who tried to save Kryton from self-inflicted ecocide (overuse of planet’s core as an energy source which caused the planet to explode). Astra had warned her fellow Krytonians of the problem, but resorted to violence and attempted mass population mind control when she saw that the politicians weren’t listening. It’s implied in the story that Astra was influenced by her husband — who seems to have dark, narcissistic, desires for power.

        Astra was imprisoned by Kara’s mother on Kryton in this massive space station. The space station/prison survived the cataclysmic fall of Krypton and ends up being transported to Earth. This results in a large number of Kryptonians and other galactic supervillians emerging on Earth. Many of these end up falling under Astra’s sway.

        Astra’s fear for Kryton is replaced by fear for Earth due to human-caused climate change. But her actions on Earth resemble those on Kryton and this brings her into conflict with Kara. Astra appears to have second thoughts, but can’t stop fighting which results in her death at the hands of Kara’s foster sister. Kara (supergirl) is anguished by Astra’s death — she’s convinced that Astra would have turned away from violence. And, in the end, Kara says:

        “Astra was right. My world died. We didn’t act soon enough.”

        Hello.

        So this is kind of a big deal to me because it’s the first time I’ve seen the original archetypal themes I’d introduced in Luthiel’s Song repeated in a mass media fiction. I identified Luthiel as a classic feminist. Not in ideology, but in fact. What made her heroic was her ability to connect with others and with the vital life of the world itself. Her essential magic was communication. And her real super power was the innate ability to see the good in all things and to redeem even the seemingly irredeemable.

        When I first wrote the story, I thought these were the essential ideals we would need for human civilization survival — love of others, love of life, innate compassion, inspiring compassion in others.

        Though supergirl (Kara) is clearly an archetype along these new resurrected lines (this archetype has been with us since the beginning, male dominant, war-like culture suppressed her), there are many opportunities for this implied subtext to be further revealed.

        One final note and aside … The Hunger Games helped to start some of this kind of revelation. The relationship between sisters being the main and most compelling driver of the story (and one that was in many ways a re-rendering of Luthiel’s initial relationship with Leowin). This was important because it began to tear down the deeply ingrained competition that has so harmed relationships among women in our culture. However, the social darwinian aspect of Hunger Games dramatically overshadowed many of the more important (in my view) archetypal features of the feminine heroic ideal.

        Am I being plagiarized? Who cares. These concepts are too important to be owned by anyone. I’m glad they’re starting to break out. Should have happened yesterday.

        Reply
        • Happy Birthday!

        • Thx Umbrios! 44 This year. For some reason, a part of my brain still thinks I’m 19 and gets shocked each time I reach another milestone…

        • Happy Birthday Robert – hope tomorrow brings a proper B’day gift for you!!

          As for the shock – wait until you’ve added another 25 years or so – it still happens!🙂

        • Hah! I bet.

          My B-Day is Nov 4. So I guess the present for this year was COP 21 ratification. Let’s hope they work seriously to implement and then build on it.

          As has become so very obvious, we need to get the FF influence out of these international negotiations.

          Getting Clinton v Trump might give me a good shot of actually seeing 64… I guess I’m kinda joking a little. Maybe not.

        • Abel Adamski

           /  November 8, 2016

          Happy Birthweek Robert.
          As I worked rotating 24/7 shifts for the first 14 Years my wife and I were together, celebrating birthdays was rarely on the day so we had birthweeks for both of us and spread it out over the week.
          A long way of saying have a great Birthweek.
          P.S I was the 2nd

        • Thx, Abel. Makes me smile when you talk about your wife. I treasure all the time I spend with mine.

  3. Jimbot

     /  November 4, 2016

    Are we allowed to say “tipping point”, as in irreversible, non-linear changes?

    Reply
    • Some tipping points are crossed now. More at 1.5, 2, 3, 4, and 6 C initial. The velocity of change adds tipping points. For example corals that may have adjusted to gradual temperature change can’t handle rapid change and the rate of ocean acidification due to carbon loading is currently unprecedented.

      Reply
  4. I remember 1998 well… I work outside, and I was doing soil testing that month. Knowing the forecast, we met at the site at the crack of dawn to allow for an early quit. But, by 10AM, out in a treeless field, the heat was already tremendous, sweat mixing with soil. I was dripping. By the we finished up, I thought to myself, maybe now someone will understand what’s happening and understand the urgency of addressing climate change. Well…. how many years have past now? And, they (the government) are still refusing to talk about it in the public sphere, except of course to minimize the issue. Talk about deplorable. They all are, and given the inevitable outcome at this point, I despise them for what they have done.

    Thank you for your efforts.

    Reply
    • Some agencies have really failed us, Wolf. But I think it’s worth pointing out that we have the opportunity to change how we currently communicate, how we’ve communicated in the past, at any time. I think that would be something that would help us all at the moment.

      I wonder, was this a DOE study group?

      Reply
  5. entropicman

     /  November 4, 2016

    IIRC three of the last seven El Ninos were followed by a full La Nina.

    Too soon to know what will follow the 2016 El Nino. NOAA are predicting a 70% chance that La Nina conditions, but only 40% that they will persist.

    The Australian BOMensemble are expecting a marginal and temporary La Nina at best. You may be right that the heat is going into the Arctic, rather than into the Pacific.

    Reply
  6. Thomas Grizzle

     /  November 5, 2016

    The, “Denialists,” by doing everything they can to obfuscate the reality of climate physics in action, have brought this badness upon us. I am just waiting for the crowds bearing pitchforks and torches to seek these denialists out and teach them a lesson.

    Reply
    • I’d like to see them change their minds. At least more of them. I think it’s starting to happen. Some of the politicians seem rather uncomfortable promoting a denial position at the moment while in the public eye. I think they’re starting to realize how they basically look like heartless jerks every time they say something like this. Too many people running around with vestigial Grinch hearts they never appear to use.

      Reply
  7. Dave McGinnis

     /  November 5, 2016

    But isn’t El Nino/La Nina a redistribution of heat that’s already out there regardless?

    Reply
    • If you’re warming during La Niña, then it’s an indication that heat build up may be accelerating.

      Reply
      • Yeah, absolutely, if the oscillation is being overridden, that’s, as one entirely deplorable Presidential candidate would say, yuuuuge. MHAO (My Humble Amateur Opinion).

        Reply
      • There are lots of theories about what caused the Eastern Pacific to cool during the so-called hiatus/pause in warming. Right now it is not cooling, so the GMST cannot drop until it, or some other area of the earth’s surface, cools. The JIASO PDO remains positive. Wind-driven upwelling in the Eastern Pacific is largely absent… but it will return. In the early 2000s there were three El Nino events in a row. Back-to-back El Nino events is what I am expecting.

        Reply
        • 2014, 2015, 2016 was certainly a protracted El Nino like state with lots of strong PDO values. And, like you say, current PDO is positive, which is absolutely worthwhile to consider when looking at the overall state.

          Thanks for this.

  8. climatehawk1

     /  November 5, 2016

    Tweet queued up. I suggest writing out El Nino-Southern Oscillation the first time you use ENSO, as there may be some readers who won’t know what it is.

    Reply
  9. Genomik

     /  November 5, 2016

    Just when you think it can’t get any worse, trump ups the ante on absurd stuipidity.

    In the last week, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has repeatedly vowed to zero out all federal spending on clean energy research and development. And the plan he released would also zero out all other spending on anything to do with climate change, including the government’s entire climate science effort.

    https://thinkprogress.org/trump-zero-out-federal-clean-energy-56cca794790#.q2pkku4ao

    Reply
    • Wow. Just insane how ridiculous this guy has become. He really does act like a super-villain. Does he care about anything other than his own, small, self-centered quest for instant gratification? If it weren’t so terrifying to see in action, it would be sad.

      Reply
  10. Metro Denver is running at 15 F above normal since October 1st, with not even a single night below freezing yet, when 20 years ago it would regularly snow a few inches in September and a couple feet in October. Both yesterday and today, November 3rd and 4th, it was more than 70 F for the day’s high here against the average per-date of only 54 F. A week ago it was in the mid-80s here too.

    My own guess is that the massive ground-level methane spike recorded back in June on the Yamal Peninsula of 375,000 parts per-billion, which has already caused a summer-long heatwave across Siberia that averaged 7 C above normal, along with massive wildfires there too large for the Russian government to even attempt to put out, is what we are seeing the tail end of here in Denver this fall.

    If I am correct it might be December or January before we see a night below freezing here.

    Reply
    • 15 F for an entire month is, quite frankly, ludicrous. Thanks for the report, Mark.

      RE methane. The overall global figure (according to NOAA data) hasn’t moved too much outside of the 8-11 ppb per annum increase we’ve been seeing on average since 2008. However, the Yamal region does see a continued very high reading similar to those over regions with high levels of fossil fuel based or wildfire based emissions.

      Please see:

      http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/

      Reply
  11. Cate

     /  November 5, 2016

    Britain’s butterflies are disappearing. The extremes of weather, and the unpredictable shifts of it, which are typical of climate change, are wreaking havoc with their life cycles. For example, a warm spell in winter has them hatching early, only to be killed in an unseasonable early frost…..

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/butterflies-population-extreme-weather-uk-butterfly-monitoring-scheme-a7389161.html

    “Lead author Osgur McDermott-Long, of the School of Environmental Sciences at UEA, said: “This is the first study to examine the effects of extreme climate events across all life stages of the UK butterflies from egg to adult butterfly.
    The study has demonstrated previously unknown sensitivities of our UK butterflies to extreme climatic events, which are becoming more frequent with climate change.
    The team found that rainfall level during the cocoon life stage of butterflies adversely affected more than a quarter of butterfly species in the UK. But the greatest harm was caused by extreme heat during the “over-wintering” life stage, which had an impact on more than half the species.”

    Reply
  12. Cate

     /  November 5, 2016

    Oddities seen and noted: robins hanging around. Crocuses up in a friend’s garden. Green buds ready to pop out on a maple tree—just a few days after the leaves have left it. Another clear night with no frost.

    In November.

    Do they not know winter is coming? Or do they know something we don’t?

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  November 5, 2016

      They are confused as are an increasing number of humans as much as they try to deny it , even to themselves

      Reply
    • Kevin Jones

       /  November 5, 2016

      Noticed a red maple yesterday with March sized buds on it. A week after leaf fall….

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  November 5, 2016

        Kevin, yes, exactly. A friend with a biology background suggested it might have something to do with all the recent rain?

        Reply
    • Witchee

       /  November 6, 2016

      Walking this afternoon I saw lilacs blooming- not the full spikes, but stunted little clusters of a few blossoms on the tips of the branches. It was a lovely day for September in Chicago, but it is November. November in Chicago. Lilacs.

      Reply
      • Hatrack

         /  November 6, 2016

        Honeysuckle is blooming, our fall lettuce has all bolted from the heat, and we haven’t even had frost yet, let alone a hard freeze. This is Kansas City, and we’re already through 15% of November.

        Reply
        • Cate

           /  November 6, 2016

          As my granny used to say, “Signs and wonders….”

  13. And even with things getting more dire, the oil propaganda machine goes on. This probably is old news to you in the United States, as those films normally reach Brasil after being showed in the USA. But a bunch of Hollywood well-paid losers made a film waxing heroic woes over the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, portraing the oil workers as romantic heroes who risked their lifes unselfishly to help save… uh, themselves? When I saw the trailer in the cinema yesterday it made me angry, really angry. Before the Flood isn’t going to be show in movie theaters here, but that crap, gloryfing petrol extraction, is. It’s really a sign of what’s wrong with the world.

    The film is called Deepwater Horizon, and made by a bunch of B to Z team (only recognizable name in the cast is Kate Hudson, who apparently is in the decline of her career).

    Worst of it? BP crying crocodile tears that the movie “isn’t accurate”, and doesn’t show how the oil company is good and nice and farts unicorns who fart rainbows, in a site that starts as oilpro.com, and which was the first reference on Bing when I tried to search about the film to remember its name (my search was BP disaster film). I’m not adding the link here because it’s only oil propaganda, as that film is.

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  November 7, 2016

      I thought the same thing when I saw the film’s trailer, Umbrios! Horrible premise for a film, nothing but spin and propaganda that makes one of the greatest environmental disasters ever unleashed by mankind seem irrelevant compared to the handful of precious human lives that were lost. While it is always sad to see a human die at a young age, let’s keep this tragedy in perspective. It’s not the handful of human deaths (made to appear as heroes for their hand in destroying the Earth and our future) that is the greatest loss, it is the countless deaths of innocent marine creatures that is still ongoing. It is the abrupt climate change that oil extraction has contributed to that is the tragedy. It is the countless species being driven to extinction. And of course, the countless humans yet to be born (and those alive currently) that will face an uncertain future, thanks to BP Horizon and activities like it. You want heroes for a film? Go to Standing Rock and film the protesters sacrificing themselves for OUR future. Go to South America where environmentalists are killed for nothing more than wanting to preserve the biosphere that all life depends upon. Go to any corner of the globe, and you will find courageous people sacrificing everything so that their fellow humans an have a shot at a livable future. Those are the real heroes that should be celebrated.

      Reply
      • The oil industry is trying to glorify itself and villify the renewables industry in pop culture, the same way the cigar industry did in the 1950´s. It´s not only this awful movie, though that one is the most blatant example. I´ve been watching the Supergirl series lately… and one of the villains is a barely disguised reference to Elon Musk (he even looks like Elon Musk). There are other examples, too. I known it should be expected, but that kind of thing only makes me angry.

        But at least for the second example you gave, there are movies made too. I´d recommend the movie Xingu ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Tmhy1IUDSg – hope it´s the right trailer, I can´t acess youtube in this computer) about South America environmental heroes… the Villas-Boas brothers were some of the greatest environmental and social heroes of Brasil.

        Reply
    • So the appropriate context for this movie is that these industries are involved in extracting the carbon that is setting off the current mass extinction and related climate crisis. The activity is obviously also dangerous to the workers on the rigs which provides the obvious question: why are we still involved in this insanity?

      Reply
  14. second day in a row with increase number over 4 ppm. Very noisy number, so can’t make too much of it, but if this keeps up, we will see the weekly averages creep up as well. All this in a time period in which I am watching and waiting to see a reduction in the increase due to the waning of the El Nino.

    Daily CO2

    November 4, 2016: 403.76 ppm
    November 4, 2015: 399.21 ppm

    increase of 4.55 ppm

    read’m and weep, friends

    Mike

    Reply
    • These are bad numbers, Mike.

      Reply
      • after two days of 4ppm increase, here is the most recent week’s numbers:

        Last Week
        Oct. 30 – Nov. 5, 2016 402.81 ppm
        Oct. 30 – Nov. 5, 2015 398.94 ppm

        3.87 ppm if I am not mistaken.

        Terrible numbers. I am still waiting the see the flat monthly average comparison year on year that should happen as the recent EN event ends, but no sign of it yet.

        Warm regards all

        Mike

        Reply
  15. wili

     /  November 5, 2016

    Well into November now, people are going shirtless in Minnesota. Usually it would be freezing almost every night with daily highs in mostly in the 40s’. We haven’t had one freeze yet in Minneapolis, and it was in the 70s yesterday, again today, and predicted for tomorrow.

    Reply
    • FrasersGrove

       /  November 5, 2016

      Was raking up the last of the leaves today here in Winnipeg, wearing shorts and no shirt. 19C today and not a cloud in the sky with an overnight low of 8C. We have yet to have a hard frost and it’s already Nov. Am going walleye fishing tomorrow and instead of a snow suit, I’ll be wearing shorts and a tee. Amazing and very scary at the same time…

      Reply
  16. Cate

     /  November 5, 2016

    From NOAA—check out the Climate Data Primer.

    This handy wee website will “walk you through some of the basics to help you understand and explore climate data.” Great for newbies or anyone wanting a basic overview or refresher on how climate data is assembled, tracked, presented, and used.

    https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/primer/climate-data-primer

    Reply
  17. Being 300 miles east of Seattle and 2000 ft higher, it is 60’F during the day but starting to get freezing nights. Foggy mornings, too, along with very soggy ground from all the rain.

    My recent yearly calendars are full of rain days in Jan, Feb, March. For an old surfer/snowboarder building seasonal winter gear for a living, this really sucks.

    Zero snowfall expected into December. The 2nd half of November nights according to long range predictions on weatherunderground, is single digit down to a brisk -17’F/-29’C temp with record high days into the 60s.

    With the Polar Vortex setting up, looking at another winter of near nothing snowfall if the Jet Stream takes our storms up and over into the upper Midwest again. I don’t think a weak La Nina is going to help much with that.

    There is green grass growing in the front yard and yellow jackets, flies, and stink beetles still flying around. The dogs are still shedding instead of building winter coats. I’d best go out and keep bucking up firewood because it is going to be COLD in a week…

    Reply
  18. Abel Adamski

     /  November 5, 2016

    The sky is falling I tells ya

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/stratosphere-shrinks-as-record-breaking-temperatures-continue-because-of-climate-change-20161027-gscd0w.html

    Stratosphere shrinks as record breaking temperatures continue because of climate change
    Peter Hannam

    Those warning of climate change impacts have been likened to Chicken Littles, scuttling around, warning the sky is falling.

    That worry, it turns out, is based on fact too. Cooling in the stratosphere is causing it to shrink, lowering that layer by “a number of kilometres”, NASA noted recently.

    Reply
  19. wili

     /  November 5, 2016

    I think the election is already basically over. Trump had to get every single swing state plus pull some states that were leaning Clinton over to his side. He has just lost one of those swing states, since early voting in NV was overwhelmingly Democratic.

    Reply
    • Let’s not call it over yet. But early voting indicators are mostly pretty good for Clinton.

      NC: Dems up by 305K
      NV: Dems up by 46K
      FL: Dems up by 82K (Obama and souls to the polls delivered)
      CO: Dems trail by 6.5 K but tend to turn out more on election day.

      The high number of independents voting provides some concern. But Dems are about equal to or running ahead in R v D numbers for all of these swing states vs 2012.

      Reply
      • wili

         /  November 8, 2016

        Yeah, lots could happen. Somebody at Vox pointed out that independent voters this year tend to be young, so that bodes well for Hillary, both if they voter for her directly without declaring a party, or if they break from one of the independent candidates. It is notable that Weld, Libertarian Johnson’s running mate, all but endorsed Clinton.

        Reply
        • Interesting. I also see that college educated republicans appear to be breaking toward Clinton in some of the reports.

  20. Checking in from Ecuador, and as always, thanks for keeping us all informed and up-to-date.

    The coastal weather is what I know best, but have been in the cloud forest for 18 months and have spent a lot of time here over the years. (Mindo,Pacific slope- wnw of Quito) It is not unusual to have three or four days without rain at this time, but we have had a marathon dry period— at least three weeks with basically zero rain. Many people love it, but the heat (perfect climate for vacation) worries me re: reptiles, amphibians, ecosystems… Today we had more cloud cover in the afternoon than of recent weeks, so perhaps the spell will soon break.

    Wondering if we’re in a pocket of weird weather or if there’s a holding pattern… Thnks in advance if there’s any site that shows accurate and current data.

    Lisa

    Reply
    • Three weeks without rain in a cloud-forest area?!! You´re right, that´s terrifying… the kind of thing that´s subtle, can even look “nice” for the people around, but is very, very wrong…

      Reply
      • At least week four now.. one person said he’s been here for ten years and has never seen this long without a rain. We’re getting more clouds now, and a few sprinkles – just enough to dapple the dark-colored vehicles… yes it seems very very wrong. thanks for your feedback! lisa

        Reply
  21. This has been the wierdest October/November weather I can ever remember in Ireland. Tempratures would normally be several degrees lower and we usually have lots of rain and wind. This October was a month to remember with little or no rain and several degrees warmer than usual.
    Now we are into November and the pattern remains with sunny skies, warm pleasant days and forecasts for more dry weather to come. It would be enjoyable if we were not so aware of why it is happening. Keep up the good work Robert.

    Reply
    • Thanks for the kind words, Vera. Best regards to you. Unfortunately ‘pleasant weather’ is a calm before the climate change storm.

      Reply
  22. Vic

     /  November 6, 2016

    An early burst of heat and strong winds have combined into a major weekend for fire authorities in New South Wales as more than 50 bushfires burn across the state. 1100 firefighters have been mobilised including ex-PM Tony Abbott who’s pride sustained significant damage after clumsily falling from his fire truck in front of waiting media crews. As he tried to regain his composure a colleague then accidentally hit him in the head as he opened the back door of the fire truck.

    Reply
  23. Greg

     /  November 6, 2016

    Early science warnings:

    Reply
    • Wow. 1856. That’s just 80 years after the American Revolution and fully 160 years prior to today. We’ve had more American years in which this scientific knowledge was available than when it was not.

      Reply
  24. Greg

     /  November 6, 2016

    Feeling kind of low?

    Reply
  25. Greg

     /  November 6, 2016

    A key psychological barrier for the left in its challenge from the right:

    Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  November 6, 2016

      Psychopaths lack, either relatively or absolutely, human compassion and empathy. Their rule, which is guaranteed under capitalism, (which is nothing but psychopathy in action), is the reason we have reached this present unhappy state. I have watched, over the last forty years, the psychopaths here in Australia, led by the Murdoch MSM, various Rightwing propaganda tanks, and the Liberal and National Parties (acolytes of the US Republicans)and the Rightwing of the Labor Party, drive nearly all intelligent and decent people from public life, and today I would be hard-pressed to name a dozen figures in politics, the MSM and business who were not, in my opinion, morally and intellectually depraved, to varying degrees. It has been quite an experience to see the spiritual euthanasia of your own society performed before your very eyes.

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  November 6, 2016

        “spiritual euthanasia….” Excellent phrase, mm. As for the intellectual and moral depravity of those in public office, ditto here in Canada as well. Even if they start out as good people, they simply do no prevail against the corporate psychopaths.

        Reply
      • Mark from OZ

         /  November 7, 2016

        So true Mulga!
        Way beyond sad is the current ability of those you mentioned above to create / shape popular opinion on everything. I’ve been here (Straya) for 12 years ( via USA) and the astonishment at how many easily submit to ‘the message’ has given rise to real fear at how effective these propaganda campaigns by big biz can be.

        Healthy and independent debate about direction, focus and objectives is no longer acceptable and to challenge the status quo is met with an extraordinary force from all media angles and their field ‘operatives’ (trolls).

        In the land of iron ore the big ‘magnet’ can get the ‘filing’s to line up in any direction and at will.

        Here’s the venerable CSIRO( C’Wealth Scientific Industrial Research Org) taking shots from the big magnet and how the ‘game’ is prosecuted.

        http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/one-nation-call-for-audit-over-csiro-climate-claims/news-story/eee35aff8b4d9fb6a199f267700b8b37
        Note The Australian is a News Corp pub and part of the Murdoch ’empire’.

        And, what the CSIRO recently published. Reporting on the reality of what’s happening (here) will certainly draw the wrath of those who want BAU.

        https://www.csiro.au/en/state-of-the-climate?featured=F29EDEB1728C4A92B579C7A5DC28BAD5

        Reply
    • Compassion reaches out. Hate does the opposite.

      Reply
  26. Another glimpse at the JAXA Arctic Sea Ice extent – Nov 5th – today approx 600,000 km2 less than previous record low 2012 – and over 1,000,000 km2 less than all other years at this date!

    https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

    Reply
    • It’s basically shadowing the trend line now. Just running along in that record low region. Lets hope there’s no more sideways movement.

      Reply
  27. Abel Adamski

     /  November 6, 2016

    Greenland ice melt.
    Last time largely ice free 450,000 years ago. Still over 70 % of ice in the Eemian, but then that era is in our wake

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/11/161104102022.htm

    Algal fat opens window to past Arctic temperatures

    Date: November 4, 2016
    Source: University of Bergen
    Summary:
    A new paper uses alkenones from the Svalbard islands and is among the first studies that present Arctic summer temperature change over the period from the end of the last Ice Age some 12,000 years ago. Its results show a large range of natural summer temperature variability and identify distinct phases of rapid change.

    Reply
  28. Shawn Redmond

     /  November 6, 2016

    I bit of the view from outside the glass house.

    As Patterson concludes, part of the purpose of campaign coverage is to help inform voters about key issues of public concern. This year, the networks decided to walk away from that responsibility.

    The reasons why are also clear. Covering nonsense and circus brings in big advertising for the networks – a fact CNN readily admitted. There is the pressure of the parties to not engage in anything serious. For the last nice months, journalists, would-be journalists, ‘influencers,’ lobbyists, intellectuals, ideologues and bloggers have been way too busy calling Trump a fascist, although if you would ask them who Franco was, or Salazar, most of them wouldn’t know. No, I do not exaggerate. A study just found that a majority of first year American university students fails to locate Vermont and Ohio on a map of the USA. They all know about Angelina Jolie’s marriage problems. This is a kindergarten level of ‘discourse,’ with even well-known people demonstrating their basis ignorance and bias. Michael Moore mentioned today that ‘no women (sic) has built the atomic bomb and no women (resic) is responsible for the melting of the polar ice caps.’ Another good reason to vote Clinton so it seems.
    http://www.flassbeck-economics.com/on-the-result-of-the-american-election-next-tuesday/

    Reply
  29. Abel Adamski

     /  November 6, 2016

    Greenland again

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/05/160523141244.htm?trendmd-shared=0

    A history of snowfall on Greenland, hidden in ancient leaf waxes
    A surprising trove of data yields indications of increased Arctic snowfall in times of warming

    Date: May 23, 2016
    Source: University at Buffalo
    Summary:
    The history of Greenland’s snowfall is chronicled in an unlikely place: the remains of aquatic plants that died long ago, collecting at the bottom of lakes in horizontal layers that document the passing years. Using this ancient record, scientists have determined that snowfall at one key location in western Greenland may have intensified from 6,000 to 4,000 years ago, a period when the planet’s Northern Hemisphere was warmer than it is today.

    Reply
  30. mulga, at least your psychopaths don’t have thousands of very large nuclear weapons in their hip pocket that make the Hiroshima explosion look like a little firecracker…or massive stocks of chemical and biological weapons. Our psychopaths do. I remember ‘practicing’ duck & cover at school with Bert the Turtle in the early 60s, and then I read Nevil Shute’s ‘On The Beach’ at around 12 years old and realized what a lie it all was.

    Weather:

    After 1am with a drizzle rain falling and I’m walking around outside in a long-sleeve t and flip flops on my feet. There should be a foot of snow on the ground and be no warmer than 20’F/-7’C. It’s in the low 50sF. This is nutz!!

    I had a local 13 yr old of a friend of mine that I taught to snowboard last winter, over today helping stack wood while I chainsawed rounds. He’s ‘earning’ the use of one of my kid-sized 130cm learner boards and rides to the ski hill this winter. While eating lunch he was wandering the house looking at the deep powder snowboarding photos on the walls and asking why it doesn’t snow like that anymore. He’d really like to try riding waist-deep while blowing fluffy white clouds of 5% over his head.

    Big sigh. His mom is one of the people I talk climate with so he’s hearing it when we talk, and I tend to talk honestly with the younger age group when they ask me directly (they don’t need more lies). He’s getting aware enough of the world around him to ask the questions himself.

    It is really hard to talk to the faces that will become the adults who have the horrors of climate collapse in their future if this species doesn’t get its shit together really damn fast. Like yesterday fast. Have to be so careful how I frame the science to that age group, ya know?

    I’m sure a number of the posters here are having that same problem. How do we talk to the younger generation without making them piss in their pants? There are days when what I’m reading makes me want to!! These young people are NOT stupid, they pick up and retain a whole lot more than adults give them credit for. And by the looks of things, it’s going to get dumped into their laps in one big soggy mess. I hope I did okay with it today.

    Reply
  31. Abel Adamski

     /  November 6, 2016
    Reply
    • utoutback

       /  November 6, 2016

      Thanks AA. I read the guardian, but missed this. Excellent history. I put American Amnesia on my reading list. We should be using the same government support of research into alternative energy & climate change abatement now as was used for science & tech after WWII! Unfortunately the many of the big rich are only interested feathering their own nests.

      Reply
    • Improbable Otherness

       /  November 7, 2016

      Agreed, THANK YOU VERY MUCH for that link, Mr. Adamski!! THAT is an outstanding article that I would heartily recommend to every “human” on the planet, not just those suffering from “American Amnesia.” Indeed, I consider it mandatory reading for every biped capable of doing so… alas, the preponderance of evidence (and more than a few of the comments there (not to mention elsewhere)) suggest that the majority of those who persevere in reading it will, no doubt, fail to understand its message. When “we” are damned if we do AND damned if we don’t there is only ONE logical conclusion.

      Reply
  32. Cate

     /  November 6, 2016

    ASIF today, the 2016/2017 freezing thread: people seem to be grasping for words as they try to read the portents this season. The conversation has now taken a turn into religion today, with allusions to biblical end-times.

    Astonishing, to see that kind of language on a board so focused on the science, so attuned to the graphs and imaging. It’s as if the language of science is–for some, at least—now no longer sufficient for what we are looking at. For the context of that.

    I take no offence at this, of course, but simply record it, as an interesting phenomenon.

    Reply
    • Just FYI, I read Neven’s blog pretty regularly some years ago (before the forum was set up), and there was already a fair amount of concern being expressed–not as much as by Robert, but quite a bit for people who mostly qualified as Arctic sea ice geeks.🙂 It’s been a good group, just mostly a bit too narrowly focused for me (plus of course, there was that hiatus of several months every winter). Thanks for the tip, I will check it out again.

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  November 6, 2016

        ch1, I like to hang out at the ASIF in the hopes that something will sink in. The conversation gets way too technical for my understanding, but then someone will come along and put it all into a plain English nutshell, and it’s like, Bingo! It’s a bit addictive, in fact.😀

        Reply
        • I understand perfectly, used to do it for the same reason. I’d still do it if I had the time, but my days are mostly booked up now with Twitter. Need some 28- or 30-hour days to get everything done.

        • June

           /  November 6, 2016

          I feel the same way about the ASIF, Cate. I have remained a lurker, but it is one of the sites I go to regularly. It’s a sign of how quickly the Arctic is changing that winter is now becoming as interesting as summer for sea ice watchers.

        • Like June I have lurked at ASIF for years now – and this amazing refreeze season has everyone lummoxed – interesting isn’t it – ??

    • The Bible was right about one thing — the oceans will turn purple and blood red, they will turn into a great killing machine, if we don’t stop burning fossil fuels.

      Reply
  33. In Phoenix, Arizona, we will be still in the mid 80s F to almost 90 degrees . Still need some AC som afternoons, we should have heat on by now, those of us who need some heat, I have gas heat in my house. Maybe will be so warm a winter that even I wont need it?. Probably would have some days in Dec, Jan maybe Feb where I would want some heat.

    We are tired of summer clothes. it is too warmfor certain fabrics and still warm enough for my hot weather clothes, I just dint sweat into them as much these days. I thank all of you who report on other places in North Americ. I just cant compare Europe or South American weather since i have no idea what their usual weather is or was.

    Sheri

    Reply
    • Sheri, hate to say it, but east central Vermont appears to be a sweet spot so far. In general, we are seeing weather warmer than normal, but not weirdly so. Right now highs in 40s, lows in 30s, which is about right for November. I’m guessing maybe the combination of the Great Lakes to our west and ocean not too far east is helping to ward off the heat much of the U.S. is experiencing. We did have an unusually warm winter last year, and I think that will probably be the case going forward, notwithstanding the so-called “polar vortex.” (Haven’t tweeted the recent articles warning about that, as I think they just spread confusion–the “vortex” here has NOT resulted in extra-cold winters, just some relatively normal cold snaps.)

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  November 6, 2016

        Interior of Newfoundland: also warmer than usual, sometimes weirdly so, putting smiles on everyone’s faces, of course, because we have such a long winter, we welcome any weather that shortens it. Night-time temps continue to float along above normal, with very little frost so far, and in the next couple of week night temps are forecast to exceed even the long-term average DAYtime temps.

        I enjoy reading everyone’s local weather reports, btw. The science is fine, but how you experience your changing climate adds a human dimension that makes it real.

        Reply
      • June

         /  November 7, 2016

        In my neck of the woods (literally) in central Maine, we didn’t have a hard frost until October 31st. I was picking Dahlia blossoms from my garden on Halloween…a first. That’s about three weeks later than it used to be.

        We have missed out on the heat the last few days. The jet stream decided to dive down just to our west, so we are in the trough instead of under that huge ridge. But the temps are just seasonably cool, nothing major. Speaking of the jet stream, the wind speeds in the Pacific look pretty fierce on Climate Reanalyzer.

        Reply
      • JBowron

         /  November 7, 2016

        Here in lovely Alberta, Canada, home of the heavy oil it is forecast to be 17C warmer than ‘normal’ with the last week being on average 10C warmer than normal. Grass is green but crops in local area are too wet to harvest and even if harvested the quality will be degraded. But people do love the warm weather- even some golf courses are still open.

        Reply
  34. Vic

     /  November 6, 2016

    New Delhi has closed its schools, halted construction and ordered that all roads be doused with water to settle dust, as crippling air pollution continues to engulf the Indian capital. PM2.5 currently at 90 times the level considered safe by the World Health Organisation.

    Reply
  35. Hilary

     /  November 7, 2016

    “GLOBAL SOLIDARITY: About 60 people performed two Ngati Porou haka on Waikanae Beach on Saturday to show support for Native American Sioux tribe Standing Rock’s protest against an oil pipeline they have said threatens its tribal land. A video of the haka has been viewed nearly one million times and shared thousands of times around the world.”
    See article for video link:
    http://gisborneherald.co.nz/localnews/2542046-135/haka-supports-standing-rock

    The Standing Rock protest has been getting good coverage in the media here in NZ.

    Reply
  36. Nathan Tetlaw

     /  November 7, 2016

    This is an awesome level of stupidity

    http://www.senatormalcolmroberts.com.au/csiro-report

    Sou unwraps it too…
    http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2016/11/its-climate-conspiracy-on-unbelievable.html

    Can’t deal with people like this, no evidence will ever be enough.
    I am hopeful that the political party he belongs to, will explode like it did last time. When every member of the party is unable or unwilling to engage with rational thought it’s hard to see how they will stay together.

    Kind of embarrassing too, being Australian.

    Reply
  37. Abel Adamski

     /  November 7, 2016

    A Sobering read
    An update from Nicholas Stern

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/06/nicholas-stern-climate-change-review-10-years-on-interview-decisive-years-humanity

    Yet the world is still burning more and more fossil fuel and pumping more and more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This has both long- and short-term consequences. “Apart from raising carbon levels and temperatures, burning fossil fuels causes air pollution, as we have learned over the past five years,” says Stern. “The consequences are terrible. Air pollution kills more than 30,000 people a year in Britain. That is about one in 2,000 of the population. It has become one of the very big killers around the world. In China, it causes about 4,000 deaths a day.

    “We are killing millions every year from air pollution produced by burning fossil fuels. Yes, there are other sources of air pollution but burning fossil fuels is a large part of the story. That understanding is new and very important.”

    Those who deny and promote Fossil Fuel consumption are in reality mass murders.
    So many of them claim to be christian and born again – mass murderers

    Reply
    • Syd Bridges

       /  November 7, 2016

      Thanks for the link, Abel. But Christians as mass murderers-what’s new? The Crusaders massacred Muslims and non-Catholic Christians alike on their rampages, the genocide of the Cathars in the Albigensian Crusades, the Teutonic Knights in the Baltic, the Spanish in the New World,,and Oliver Cromwell in Ireland to name but a few But our good Christians can now top all of those by bringing on a mass extinction-oops, I mean that they are bringing about the Second Coming. “Lord, Lord, we’ve done this in Your Name,” they say. To which the reply might be: “You have created this Hell on Earth, and your reward is to live in it.”

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  November 7, 2016

        It’s always interesting to me that the horrible events of history get blamed on religion rather than on human nature using religion for its own selfish purposes. It’s a distinction that is often overlooked in these times, when people seem much more ready to point fingers than to examine the real root causes of human inhumanity

        Reply
    • So your chance of dying due to air pollution is an order of magnitude greater than your chance of being killed by a lightning strike. And lightning strikes are on the increase due to climate change.

      Reply
  38. Cate

     /  November 7, 2016

    Lord Stern—who knows a thing or two—-gives us 20 years to get it right. In his words, “we are approaching the crunch point.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/06/nicholas-stern-climate-change-review-10-years-on-interview-decisive-years-humanity

    In the next two decades, infrastructure on the planet is set to double:

    “The crucial issue is the nature of that infrastructure. “If it is dirty and high carbon, it will lock us into that technology for a long time. We will be sentenced to live in cities where we cannot breath or move or be productive. If we do it using sustainable technology, however, we could have an extremely attractive future where you have strong growth, poverty is reduced, cities are cleaner and forests are saved. People have not sufficiently understood the importance of the next 20 years. They are going to be the most decisive two decades in human history.”

    Reply
    • So do you want infrastructure that produces toxins? Do you want infrastructure that pumps hothouse extinction gasses into the atmosphere at about 20-40 times faster than such an emission has ever before occurred in all of Earth’s deep past? That’s what you get if you keep building fossil fuel infrastructure. A fearsome engine of devastation.

      Reply
      • All of the above energy policy misses the mark by a bit. We should not be supporting new oil deposit exploration or any new infrastructure development for energy sources that create CO2 in the fossil fuel range. I don’t know if we can get carbon neutral on building energy systems, that seems unlikely, but the sources should be at the wind and solar range of CO2 emissions or better when built or we should not be allowing the energy sources to be built.

        Reply
        • Absolutely. We shouldn’t be building any new fossil fuel infrastructure and we should be working to jettison the current FF infrastructure as rapidly as possible.

      • Shawn Redmond

         /  November 7, 2016

        I believe the two decades that may deserve that moniker would go to the 80’s and 90’s. After reading the article I’m left wondering what colour the shy is in Lord Sterns world. Maybe green, cash green.

        Reply
        • Matt

           /  November 8, 2016

          I would definitely agree Shawn, in relation to the 80’s and 90’s. Imagine what would have been achieved with a rapid adoption of solar and wind back then! how much further advanced would we have been by now?
          I must admit to being in the pessimistic camp.. I think we have already passed the no return point and need to be at net negative emissions within the next few years… with the current world political climate, no chance!
          Our political systems are being over run with far right nut job extremism, which is only getting worse with the influx of climate refugees…easy fodder for right wing hate groups.

        • U.S. wind industry and DOE are currently aiming at a target of 20% of U.S. electricity by 2030. I believe we could have definitely reached that by 2020, perhaps 2015, if not for the Reagan Administration and subsequent Republican hostility to the wind energy production tax credit.

  39. Kevin Jones

     /  November 7, 2016

    PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice volume in for mid-October showing dead heat tie with record low 2012 for time of year.

    Reply
  40. coloradobob

     /  November 7, 2016

    When a City Stops Arguing About Climate Change and Starts Planning
    Charleston, South Carolina, is adapting to a hotter, wetter and riskier future.

    RISING TIDES AND A NEW STRATEGY
    About three dozen times a year, the city of Charleston floods during king tides. The floods block streets and shut down businesses for days at a time. A half century ago, Charleston averaged about four days of nuisance flooding a year. In 1995, Charleston had 18 flood days. Last year, it jumped to 38 days, according to recent studies by William Sweet, a NOAA oceanographer. In 30 years, Charleston will likely see 180 days of nuisance flooding.

    https://nextcity.org/features/view/climate-change-cities-planning-charleston-flood

    Reply
    • They’re adapting because they’re being forced to. Miami is spending 400 million to buy maybe 10-20 years. How much will Charleston spend? And how much will they work to try to mitigate the problem? To inform their public that they are basically voting in the people that will ensure that Charleston gets wiped off the map?

      Reply
  41. coloradobob

     /  November 7, 2016

    Salience: On the Eve of the 2016 Election
    By: Dr. Ricky Rood

    Link

    Reply
  42. coloradobob

     /  November 7, 2016

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  November 7, 2016

      The smog from the festival of Diwali in India still hasn’t cleared a week after. The readings from the air pollution was off the charts. Severe economic restraints are being put in place to make the air less deadly this week. The use of fireworks has been studied a little and the results are not good at all for humanity or our climate yet we seen to put that right to pollute in the name of celebration over all the other ones they will be limiting this week like AG burning, coal power-plant, garbage burning, car emissions, construction, destruction and such..seems one way of reducing harsh global emissions that not only effect climate negatively but health directly would be to test, change and/or limit fireworks.

      http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/database/?pageid=event_desc&edis_id=ED-20161106-55794-IND

      Reply
    • Brilliant, Bob. Thanks for this.

      Reply
  43. coloradobob

     /  November 7, 2016

    ‘Quite sobering’: Record hot 2015 could become ‘new normal’ by 2030, study finds

    Record hot years such as last year’s global scorcher will become the norm before 2030 unless greenhouse gas emissions are curbed, a new study by Australian researchers has found.

    The scientists, led by Sophie Lewis from the Australian National University, used different emissions projections to determine when 2015’s record global surface temperatures could be considered a “new normal”.

    Link

    Reply
  44. coloradobob

     /  November 7, 2016

    Rio’s Beaches Take Battering From Storm Surge

    Climate Central/The Guardian, Published: November 6th, 2016
    Scientists in Rio de Janeiro have warned that the city’s sea defenses may not be able to cope with the effects of climate change after a record storm surge swamped beaches, dumping hundreds of tons of sand across nearby roads and buildings.
    Waves of almost 13 feet last weekend left beach flags fluttering in tatters, forced the closure of deckchair-rental gazebos, and inundated coconut-and-beer kiosks with grit and sea water. …
    In the 1990s, storm surge disruptions occurred roughly once a year, but since 2010 they have hit Rio four or five times as frequently. There have already been four this year, including two of the biggest ever seen. In April, two people were killed when a 165-foot stretch of the Tim Maia bike path was washed away just months after it was built. …

    Link

    Reply
    • There have been “Miami-like” floods here in Brasil, not only in Rio de Janeiro, but in Santos (our biggest port), São João do Meriti (industrial city), and in Angra dos Reis (the most chilling for me, as Angra dos Reis is the only place in Brasil where we have nuclear plants… 2,5 as there´s a third one that is in construction since the 1980s. But the nuclear plants appear to be safe by now).

      The worst tide-floodings were actually in Santos (those actually destroyed homes), but they affected a poor neighborhood, so it hit the news only when the port operations were affected.

      These floods WERE predicted by climate models. Observatório do Clima (http://www.observatoriodoclima.eco.br/en/ ), a union of Brasilian ecologists, had released in 2013 a warning for tide-flooding in the areas that were flooded, which expected that these areas would be the first ones hit by tide-floods frequently in Brasil, and that the number of tide-floods would start to grew bigger by 2016. That same model warns that Barra da Tijuca, a very rich neighboorhood in Rio de Janeiro, will be inhabitable because of tide-flooding in 2030, getting floods daily. .

      But the two ciclists killed in April weren´t killed by the “ressaca”, though Rio´s mayor Eduardo Paes quickly blamed Climate Change. And Yemanjá and Neptune, and anyone and anything else but himself. A XVII century pedestrian pass that was beside the newly inaugurated bike path withstood the waves with ease. The bike way was poorly constructed, and lacked moorings that should be there by it´s plans (when that was proved, Eduardo Paes tried to blame IBAMA, which quickly released to public the environmental permit of the bikeway, that DID allow for instalation of the moorings).

      The bike way should have six moorings, and it only had two. The public was charged for the instalation of all the moorings, of course. The building enterprise (contractor? In Portuguese the word is “empreiteira” and I´m not finding a good translation to English) engineer and workers were implicated in the criminal investigation (they´re answering criminal charges now), as well as a few employees from the mayor office, but there was no evidences to imply the mayor himself. Not to say that he wasn´t involved, but there wasn´t enough to denounce him.

      Reply
  45. More and more large earthquakes near Chushing Oklahoma,Pipeline Capitol of the World..Too bad Okla keeps electing Tea Bag Religious Right Republicans..http://www.tulsaworld.com/earthquakes/update-cushing-city-manager-estimates—structures-received-substantial/article_7e955875-8006-5ca8-bef0-edb6a530b8a0.html.

    Reply
  46. June

     /  November 7, 2016

    It seems observations continue to accumulate supporting Jennifer Francis’ view relating northern jet stream changes in amplitude to low arctic sea ice. In North America it has been stuck in this huge ridge/ trough pattern. It has been really strong in the Pacific.

    Reply
    • The trend appears to be pretty strong for anyone who’s watching. I wouldn’t be surprised if more confirmational studies come out soon. The dynamic gets even weirder once Greenland starts to more rapidly melt. Francis should be celebrated for her foresight. We need to have a very clear communication that what we are seeing in the atmosphere due to climate change is completely unprecedented.

      Reply
  47. coloradobob

     /  November 7, 2016

    It feels like the latest manifestation of climate change in Siberia: huge falls of early snow not seen in more than a generation. In many areas the level of snow is two or three metres higher than usual.
    Districts like Abyisky and Srednekolymsky have faced five months of snow in just four weeks.
    Yakut horses, the most resilient on the planet, have found it impossible to forage for food under the excessive falls. Reindeer, too, are suffering in the coldest region of Russia.

    http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/n0799-exceptional-snow-falls-in-yakutia-lead-to-fears-for-children-and-horses/

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  November 7, 2016

      Warmth by the numbers
      As detailed by weather.com, a number of Midwestern locations could experience their latest first freeze of any year on record this year, including Minneapolis (Nov. 7), Des Moines (Nov. 13), and Detroit (Nov. 15). Here’s another telling illustration of how consistently mild the nation has been over the past several weeks: The preliminary total of U.S. daily record highs either tied or broken for the one-week period ending on November 4 was 887, while the corresponding number of daily record lows was a mere 1. Referring to the 887-to-1 ratio, independent meteorologist Guy Walton said: “Since cataloging record counts starting on 1/1/2000, this is the highest weekly ratio of daily highs to daily lows I have ever seen!” The numbers were almost as lopsided for the week ending November 7 (see Figure 2). Preliminary numbers typically grow a bit larger as late-reporting stations come in.

      https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/a-mild-tranquil-election-day-on-tap

      Reply
    • So you blow huge plumes of moisture out over the ocean and the Arctic Ocean and Barents and Bering in particular and that moisture falls into the cool trough that develops over Siberian — increasing precipitation totals. This was predicted in the models. It’s also due to the storm track shifting northward.

      The heat inertia of the Arctic Ocean creates a really worrisome warm north, cool south dynamic as well. This dipole relationship between Siberia and the Arctic Ocean is not a normal feature.

      Reply
  48. Cate

     /  November 7, 2016

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/07/marrakech-climate-talks-giving-the-fossil-fuel-lobby-a-seat-at-the-table

    “As the world gathers in Morocco for the historic first meeting under the Paris agreement – called “COP22” but now also “CMA1” – it does so with the unprecedented involvement of corporate interests who have fought climate action around the world, funded climate change denial and whose fundamental interest is in extracting and burning as much fossil fuel as possible…..
    representatives of companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, Peabody, BP, Shell and RioTinto will have unquestioned access to most discussions in Marrakech, will be called upon for advice and will be walking the corridors and holding private discussions with countries that are trying to move the world to stop consuming the products those companies have based their businesses on….
    Jesse Bragg from Corporate Accountability International says it is clear those groups are driven by a profit motive and not by the desire to curb carbon emissions, and so have a conflict of interest.”

    Foxes in henhouses come to mind.

    Reply
    • This is ridiculous. The only reason these entities should be there is as part of a display of the kinds of behavior we need to discourage. Exxon and these others are among the worst of the worst global climate actors. If they are placed at the helm of policy-making, then we will see BAU fossil fuel emissions. If history is any guide, they’ll work to water down climate actions supported by the international policy agencies even as they fight to kill the weakened policies at home. This is ridiculous. It’s not a way to generate climate solutions.

      Reply
  49. Cate

     /  November 7, 2016

    The trampoline effect continues above 80N, as daily mean temps keep bouncing back up. You have to wonder when the heck the bottom’s gonna give way and that red line hits the ground.

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

    Reply
    • In this case, the bottom represents 0 C. (UPDATED)

      Reply
      • Witchee

         /  November 7, 2016

        The heat death of the universe?

        Reply
        • Should have written 0 Celsius.

          Death by heat for Earth, perhaps. Definitely if we keep burning fossil fuels.

        • Thanks for keeping us updated, Cate. That is the second scariest climate graph I have ever seen. The first was the Vostok ice core.

      • Cate

         /  November 7, 2016

        Actually, the blue line on the graph is 0C, so the current temps are below freezing, even though anomalously high. I want to see the red line heading for and hitting the green line on the graph, which represents the historic mean.🙂

        Reply
        • Yes. I’d like to see that too🙂. And in past years we’ve tended to have these spiky variations down to the baseline and then back up from it. Not the strange levitation we’re seeing this year.

          The point I was clumsily trying to make was that the bottom for the Arctic as we know it is the 0 C line. The closer we get to that during Winter, the closer we are to a complete global state change.

        • Cheers, Cate. In any case, I hope I didn’t come across as sharp on this bit. And I really appreciate the point you were making here. It’s been two months and we haven’t gotten back to base line once.

        • Cate

           /  November 8, 2016

          Robert, lol, no worries there.

  50. Bill H

     /  November 7, 2016

    Robert, excellent article. I’ve only one reservation: I don’t think we are in a La nina. NOAA only talks about conditions favouring a la NIna for fall, with a lower likelihood that it will continue into winter. Likewise the BOM in Aussie are only on “La Nina Watch” at the moment.

    Reply
  51. coloradobob

     /  November 7, 2016

    Siberia: huge falls of early snow not seen in more than a generation.

    I haven’t looked at just where these reports are coming from, but at least there’s a chance they fell on a lot of the burn areas. So that’s a good thing. But, on the other hand, this snow load is going to keep the cold from refreezing the ground. And the spring thaw is going to be a real turd floater.

    Reply
  52. coloradobob

     /  November 7, 2016

    Aqua/MODIS
    2016/306
    11/01/2016
    04:20 UTC
    Fires in eastern China and Russia

    Link

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  November 7, 2016

      The Smoky Mountains are on fire –

      Terra/MODIS
      2016/312
      11/07/2016
      16:50 UTC

      Reply
      • coloradobob

         /  November 7, 2016

        Here’s one of the Great Salt Lake today, hard to believe we can do this ( The railroad causeway crossing the lake ) :

        Link

        Reply
        • coloradobob

           /  November 8, 2016

          Just East of the lake are the Unita Mountains they are the only East / West mountain range in lower 48. I know this, because in May 1979, I was drilling seismic shot holes on their West flank at over 10,400 feet. That winter it had snowed over 2 feet on the lower slopes, on October 2nd.
          This image today shows only snow at the very highest peaks, and the Wasatch behind Salt Lake City have zero snow. This means, Park City, etc. have no base for the up coming season. And the farmers that need the this runoff have have near zero in next springs water bank. This is a really remarkable image.

      • Good catch here, Bob. And you have got to be kidding me! We are having wildfires like this in the smokies in Nov???

        Reply
      • Nothing in the news about this. NADA. There’s something about a fire ban for these parks. But that’s it. The satellite shows massive fires…

        Reply
        • coloradobob

           /  November 8, 2016

          I saw that Smoky image on Cat 6. He had a great shot of the fires I asked for his link , so far no reply. Check
          60. hydrus comment.

          https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3496#commenttop

        • There’s a serious flash drought ongoing for this region. Kentucky, for example went from 24 percent of the state having a D1 drought rating according to Drought Monitor to 81 percent of the state having a D1 rating in just one week.

          Thanks for the head’s up. As they say, I’m on this.

        • coloradobob

           /  November 8, 2016

          It looks like Siberia last summer. A much better link than mine.

        • Abel Adamski

           /  November 8, 2016

          Election in a few days, could be perceived as favouring Clinton and action on Climate Change.
          Can’t have that

        • Election tomorrow!🙂 Actually, the local media is on it. Twitter starting to pick it up. Stu Ostro made a recent mention. So it’s starting to get out there. First searches came up with very little. But it’s starting to get reported.

  53. coloradobob

     /  November 8, 2016

    Back to the Unita images –

    This is a really remarkable image.
    The snow flakes back then were the size of cotton balls from Walmart. They were nothing like the ones I had ever seen before.

    Those day’s are gone forever, over a long time ago.
    Steely Dan

    Reply
  54. coloradobob

     /  November 8, 2016

    RS
    I really miss DTL.

    Reply
  55. wili

     /  November 8, 2016

    Basically, what Trump would be saying if he were completely honest can be summed up in this immortal song of Groucho Marx:

    “The last guy nearly ruined this place,

    He didn’t know what to do with it.

    If you think this country’s bad off now,

    Just wait till I get through with it!”

    Reply
  56. coloradobob

     /  November 8, 2016

    Hell comes to breakfast.

    Reply

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