Pair of Arctic Storms Sparked Severe Polar Warming, Sea Ice Melt for November 2016

Folks — we’re in a climate emergency. Tell everyone you know.Eric Holthaus

There are weather and climate records, and then there are truly exceptional events that leave all others in the dust. Such has been the case across Earth’s high latitudes during this last quarter of 2016… — Bob Henson at WeatherUnderground

Global warming doesn’t care about the election.Dr Gavin Schmidt of NASA GISS

*****

The dramatic Arctic warmth and related damage to sea ice continued today. It’s a situation that Bob Henson at Weather Underground has aptly dubbed ‘the crazy cryosphere.’ But from this particular observer’s perspective, the situation is probably worse than simply crazy. It appears that we are now in the process of losing an element — Arctic sea ice — that is critical to the integrity of seasonality as we know it.

extreme-heat-arctic

(Extreme Arctic warmth was drawn in by two warm storms — one running north from the Barents on November 14. Another emerging from Kamchatka on November 16 and 17. Warm storms have, during recent years, run up along high amplitude waves in the Jet Stream and into the Arctic during both summer and winter — with apparent strong impacts to sea ice [see NASA video below]. Image source: Climate Reanalyzer.)

On November 17, according to Arctic sea ice expert Zack Labe, the Arctic Ocean actually lost about 50,000 square kilometers of ice coverage. This would be odd on any given November day — which typically sees a trend of rapid freeze as the Arctic cools down into winter. But it is particularly strange considering that the Arctic Ocean is presently in a severe sea ice deficit of around 700,000 square kilometers below previous record lows. One that follows on the heels of both a very warm October and an exceptionally warm November for the Polar region of our world.

These losses occurred just one day before overall temperature anomalies for the climate zone above 66 degrees North Latitude went through the roof. For today, according to Climate Reanalyzer, temperatures for the entire Arctic spiked as high as 7.26 degrees Celsius above average. This occurred even as readings near the North Pole hit to near or above freezing in some locations.

image

(Warm Storm running up through the Fram Strait on November 14 — an event which flooded the high Arctic with abnormal late fall heat. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

And though these warming events have been widely reported in climate media, what has not been reported is the fact that a pair warm storms similar to the one that hammered sea ice and brought North Pole temperatures to above freezing during late December of 2015 were also the triggers for the present Arctic Ocean warming event.

Such intense warm air invasions can have a dramatic impact on sea ice. According to NASA, last year’s late December warm storm event resulted in considerable ice thinning and melt over the critical sea ice region surrounding the North Pole. Ice in the Barents was reduced by 10 percent. Sea surface temperatures in some locations jumped to 20 degrees (F) above average. And throughout the month of January, there was little rebuilding of sea ice into the recently melted regions.

(A recent NASA study found that warm storms can have a serious impact on sea ice. And for both 2015 and 2016, this appears to be the case.)

This year’s warming event was also accompanied by a storm running north out of the Barents. On November 14, a 955 mb storm ran directly up through the Fram Strait. It ushered in warm, moist winds from the south which then spread northward over the Central Arctic — bringing with them above freezing temperatures. On November 16, a 966 mb storm crossed over Kamchatka. It subsequently weakened. But it still possessed enough oomph to pull in a strong plume of warmth and moisture as it entered the Arctic Ocean near the region of the East Siberian Sea. And the result has been a flood of warm air coming in from the Beaufort and East Siberian Sea to meet with the similar onrush coming from the Barents. The result is the huge Polar heat spike that we see today.

Following a very warm October, this is a kind of insult to injury situation for the sea ice. And though temperatures are expected to fall back a bit over the coming week in the High Arctic, atmospheric and ocean conditions running into December seem to favor the potential for more warm air influxes to this fragile climate zone.

UPDATE: On November 19, it had become apparent that significant sea ice losses were ongoing in the Arctic. According to the JAXA sea ice monitor, about 140,000 square kilometers of sea ice had been lost over the period of November 16 through 18. As Arctic Ocean ice typically freezes quite rapidly during November, such counter trend losses are highly extraordinary. Now, sea ice in the Arctic, according to JAXA is 995,000 square kilometers below the previous record low set during 2012.

NSIDC shows similar losses in the sea ice extent monitor for the period of November 16-18. In total, 170,000 square kilometers of ice has been lost over the three day period and the total departure from the previous record low in 2012 is now 702,000 square kilometers.

These losses are quite extensive and, in many ways, are worse that those that occurred following the December 27, 2015 warm storm event.

FINAL UPDATE: On Sunday, November 20th, the JAXA monitor bottomed out at 1.1 million square kilometers below the previous record low set in 2012. This is one of the most extreme departures below previous record lows ever recorded. To put it in perspective, the maximum difference between 2007 and 2012 at end melt season was around 900,000 square kilometers. So the November loss is very, very significant — especially when one considers that, for five days, November basically behaved like summer melt season.

With high pressure taking hold over the Arctic, clear skies are allowing some of the excess heat to ventilate out into space. As a result, it is likely that we’ll see the tremendous gap start to close over the next 7 days. However, GFS model runs still show the Arctic ranging between 3 and 6 C warmer than average over the period. So this trend back toward baseline will tend to be flagged by all the extra heat in place. In the 7-10 day period it appears that more warm wind and moisture delivery to the Arctic Ocean will again set up through the Barents. But the next potential heat spike does not appear to be as extreme as the event which occurred on November 14-19.

Links:

Climate Reanalyzer

Earth Nullschool

NASA Goddard

NSIDC

JAXA

Warm Arctic Storm to Unfreeze North Pole

WeatherUnderground

Eric Holthaus

Dr Gavin Schmidt

Zack Labe

Hat tip to June

Leave a comment

236 Comments

  1. Ken Weaver

     /  November 18, 2016

    Small (insignificant) correction; in the first paragraph below earth nullschool you have December 2016, but that’s next month. Regardless though, thanks for a great post! Really worrying stuff.

    Reply
  2. marcel_g

     /  November 18, 2016

    Aw f*ckballs, I really didn’t think it was going to flip this soon. I knew it might, but really was hoping we’d have a few years. Any chance this is El Niño and the system might fall back to colder weather?

    Or has the arctic weather system just gone and flipped to a new mode/system?

    Reply
    • these weird weather anomalies appear to be the new normal.

      Reply
    • Andy_in_SD

       /  November 19, 2016

      We’re in the beginning of a state change. As such there will be variability until a new equilibrium is achieved. Issue at hand that the cause of the state change is not complete yet and will continue for decades, thus variability may continue to intensify and/or expand.

      I think your observation of “Aw f*ckballs” is spot on, I totally agree.

      Reply
    • David Otness

       /  November 19, 2016

      We’re already back into La Nina.

      Reply
    • According to NOAA, we’re already back in La Nina. Global atmospheric temps should average around 0.95 to 1.1 C above 1880s averages during 2017. However, La Nina does tend to avect a lot of heat toward the poles. So geophysical changes in some of the world’s more sensitive regions should become more and more apparent.

      Reply
      • Ridley Jack

         /  November 20, 2016

        2017 will be either be 2 warmest year in the world or 3rd warmest year on world, 2016 will remain number for some time, the point is not the ranking of the 2017 year but to know that 2017 which will most likely become a la nina at least the first six months, this will be the warmest la nina on record.

        Reply
  3. Tigertown

     /  November 18, 2016

    NSIDC reported an even bigger drop than JAXA did, posting 147,000 km2 less for Nov. 17th than the prior day for Arctic SIE. Looking south, the sea ice around Antarctica is in rubble compared to other years at this time. The melt season has three months to go and there’s already a tremendous amount of open water there.

    Antarctica November 19

    https://i0.wp.com/robertscribbler.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/antarctica-nov-19.jpg?ssl=1&w=450

    Reply
    • Improbable Otherness

       /  November 20, 2016

      In case anyone is having “trouble” with Tigertown’s link, above, or any similarly “broken” link, simply copy it, starting from the end (to avoid “problems”), paste it into Notepad (or something similar, do NOT use a “word-processing” app), check for and remove any/all “spaces” then copy-paste that into your browser’s address bar, click “->” or press [Enter]. (Note, even after that, the page MAY need to be reloaded/refreshed.)

      Reply
    • Thanks for this, Tigertown. And, well, more of a WTF?? than before.

      Reply
  4. Tigertown

     /  November 19, 2016

    Sorry, I tried to post the worldview link for Antarctica, but something went wrong.

    Reply
    • Andy_in_SD

       /  November 19, 2016

      Don’t sweat it, we botch links all the time. It is the line wraps the mess up the blog software.

      Reply
    • Actually, this link was not an image url, so it didn’t show. Will try again.

      Edit: No dice. Will try to find the reference Tiger was looking for and create a match image.

      Reply
  5. June

     /  November 19, 2016

    It is alarming that arctic amplification seems to be ramping up so quickly. We’re living inside this real-time planetary experiment, and the pace of the changes is outrunnng the ability of our traditional scientific process to keep up.

    Reply
  6. June

     /  November 19, 2016

    For climate deniers who tell us that warmer temperatures will be much better for northern locations…it’s not that simple.

    Greenland’s Getting Warmer, But Farmers There Are Struggling More Than Ever

    Recent summers have been both warm and dry, causing drought in south Greenland, says John Cappelen, a climatologist at Danish Meteorological Institute, which maintains climate data for the island.

    In 2015, for example, we didn’t have spring,” said Greenlandic agricultural consultant Henrik Motzfeldt Egede. “It just went from a very cold winter to a hot, dry summer.” He says growth in pastures for livestock was “very bad as a result.” Meanwhile, the number of sheep farmers in Greenland has fallen from 74 in 1983 to about 37 farms today, says Frederiksen.

    http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2016/11/17/502349923/climate-change-is-making-greenland-warmer-but-farmers-there-are-struggling

    Reply
  7. Anthony

     /  November 19, 2016

    Nice job Robert. Appreciating the level professionalism in your recent articles. One might say our Arctic ice pack is fragile and sensitive, on the other hand, how would you feel if you were hit by a cyclone with 100s of terajoules of energy?

    In the past the polar vortex and associated jet stream deflected these cyclone cannons. Now our arctic shields are dropping much like the shields on a spaceship – leaving us open to high energy hits. “Captian, she can’t take another hit like that one.” – Scotty from Star Trek

    I’ve been trying to find out how the forecasted reversal of the polar vortex will factor in. If it does flip, could it create a pattern potentially worse than the current one? Or, will it cause a shift in the jet stream and synoptics so as to create more cooling for the Arctic and less opportunity for warm and moisture laden air mass intrusion?

    Reply
    • Thank you for the kind words, Anthony. I suppose we needed a bit of a change of tone. For this kind of communication, it’s difficult to strike the right kind of balance.

      If the pattern tends to be stormier in the Arctic during winter, then we’ll tend to see more of these strong warming events. If we see a significant disruption of the polar vortex, then the south-north transport of energy and heat that tends to result would favor more warm wind/warm storm type invasions.

      Reply
  8. Reply
    • Xerxes Zorgon

       /  November 19, 2016

      Besides the fact that 2016 has just gone off the rails, the overall pattern is interesting. The low occurs in February during the Southern summer and then there is strong re-freezing as Southern winter approaches. I would have expected the Arctic sea ice to have a larger extent than the Southern ocean, but the real driver seems to be the Southern area.

      Reply
    • Leland Palmer

       /  November 19, 2016

      It should be noted that the y-axis is truncated- the bottom of the graph is still 12 million square kilometers of global sea ice area. So, the current changes are unprecedented in the last hundred years and probably for much longer- but not yet catastrophic.

      Give it a few years, though, and delayed or absent freezing in the winter could create an abrupt climate change in the Arctic, I think.

      Reply
  9. Did you mean “December of 2015” in the 4th paragraph?

    Reply
  10. Ryan in New England

     /  November 19, 2016

    You’ve really been doing great work, Robert. Thank you for all or your excellent and timely posts! Not trying to be fussy or obsess over any minor typos, but I thought you might want to correct this one…

    “And though these warming events have been widely reported in climate media, what has not been reported is the fact that a pair warm storms similar to the one that hammered sea ice and brought North Pole temperatures to above freezing during late December of 2016 were also the triggers for the present Arctic Ocean warming event.”

    I think you meant to say “December of 2015”.😉 Forgive me if I’m mistaken, it’s still early and I’m a little tired.

    Reply
    • Thanks for this, Ryan. Typo fix in. I may have rushed this article a bit. The new vetting/editing is better, but not perfect. Will keep working to improve. — R

      Reply
  11. wili

     /  November 19, 2016

    J.Masters is on it now: “Crazy Cryosphere: Record Low Sea Ice, An Overheated Arctic, and a Snowbound Eurasia”
    https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/crazy-cryosphere-record-low-sea-ice-an-overheated-arctic-and-a-snow

    “There are weather and climate records, and then there are truly exceptional events that leave all others in the dust. Such has been the case across Earth’s high latitudes during this last quarter of 2016, on track to be the planet’s warmest year on record. Sea ice extent and area have both plummeted to record lows for this time of year in both the Arctic and Antarctic. Such dramatic losses rarely occur at the same time, which means that the global total of sea ice coverage is phenomenally low for this time of year. The weirdness extends to midlatitudes: North America as well as the Arctic have been bathed in unusual mildness over the last several weeks, while Eurasia deals with a vast zone of above-average snowfall and below-average temperatures. Let’s look at each of these to see what’s up and where they may (or may not) be related.”

    And wipneus at neven’s site notes: <>

    Reply
    • wili

       /  November 19, 2016

      Oops. Here’s what wipneus notes: “Things are getting really strange in the Arctic, fat century declines when the ice should be increasing at max speed.

      Update 20161118.

      Extent: -130.7 (-1273k vs 2015, -1616k vs 2014, -1264k vs 2013, -817k vs 2012)
      Area: -142.8 (-1200k vs 2015, -1650k vs 2014, -1222k vs 2013, -778k vs 2012)

      …all major fronts contribute.”

      Reply
      • wili

         /  November 19, 2016

        last 2 days combined losses

        Extent: -180.8 K
        Area: -167.4 K

        Reply
      • Cheers, Wili. No worries. Looks like JAXA is also down by about -140 K over past three days. Looks like the anomaly deviation below 2012 in JAXA is now just shy of – 1 million square kilometers.

        Reply
    • wili

       /  November 19, 2016

      D’oh, just saw that robert’s article starts with this wunderground link. Note to self: Read the damn article before rushing to post a comment!🙂

      Reply
  12. wili

     /  November 19, 2016

    As some on fb pointed out: “a pair warm storms similar to the one that hammered sea ice and brought North Pole temperatures to above freezing during late December of 2016 were also the triggers for the present Arctic Ocean warming event.”

    should be “…December 2015…” right?

    Reply
  13. Suzanne

     /  November 19, 2016

    Dr. Jason Box speaks at a Science & Cocktails event on October 8th…now on Youtube.
    Most here know most of this..but may want to check out anyway or share:

    Reduce
    Reuse
    Recycle
    Resist
    Revolution…*** This IMO is where I think we must go in this current 911.

    Reply
  14. June

     /  November 19, 2016

    IJIS numbers from Espen’s post at Neven’s forum. Gives me shivers…and not from the cold!

    8,320,714 km2(November 18, 2016)down 97,385 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.

    http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=230.0;attach=38464;image

    Reply
    • Suzanne

       /  November 19, 2016

      Were those who have been yelling “Abrupt CC is here”….right after all?
      I have done my best not to be an “alarmist”…but boy oh boy…what we are seeing now makes me wonder if they were right after all?

      Reply
      • SUZANNE, those abrupt CC people were and are correct, to my grief.

        Reply
      • Abrupt geophysical changes are ongoing. We should be very clear that rate of warming is still on the predicted track. What we can learn from this is that even what some people once thought of as ‘a little’ warming = big changes. Of course, scientists like Hansen have been saying that 1 C isn’t safe for a long time.

        Reply
  15. Spike

     /  November 19, 2016

    Bad flooding in Slovenia and Sicily – this is Slovenia where I see some reports of 200mm rain in 24-36 hrs.

    https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/?hc_ref=PAGES_TIMELINE

    Reply
  16. George W. Hayduke

     /  November 19, 2016

    And with all this climate uncertainty the FF industry roles on, Wolfcamp deposit found in East Texas, 3 times as big as the Bakken deposit.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/11/18/wolfcamp-shale-oil-formation_n_13075102.html?utm_hp_ref=canada

    Reply
    • And in Arctic also:

      Alaska sees ‘astounding’ rise in temps as ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ planned for Arctic http://www.ecowatch.com/alaska-record-temperature-2094322291.html

      Reply
      • George W. Hayduke

         /  November 19, 2016

        It’s so hard for me to understand the insanity of it all…

        Reply
        • Cate

           /  November 19, 2016

          George, agreed. The claim that corporate CEOs are psychopaths certainly starts to make perfect sense. Only psychopaths would continue to promote their own personal gain in the face of possible universal destruction.

        • mulga mumblebrain

           /  November 20, 2016

          Cate, that big capitalists are psychopaths, and that capitalism is simply psychopathy in action, has been plain to me for decades. For years it was an opinion that only provoked antagonism, derision or fear (as if I had some contagious disease)but more and more I meet people who see it now, as well. Unfortunately this country, Australia, is now so totally dominated by Rightwing psychotics, in politics, the MSM and business, that raw, unadulterated, denialism, hatred of renewable energy, and adoration of fossil fuels STILL runs rampant. And those who know better, in science particularly, and academia, are cowed and impotent. The purging of climate science at the Government CSIRO by a ‘venture capitalist’ from Silicon Valley has had a salutary effect on their ‘ticker’.

        • Cate

           /  November 20, 2016

          mm, you might have been describing Canada in “adoration of fossil fuels” and the purging of climate science, although it may not be so obvious here, since our Prince-of-Selfies PM has perfected the art of saying one thing and doing the opposite. And after over thirty years of deregulation, privatisation, globalisation, and “free trade” ie corporate rights deals, I am fully in agreement with you that capitalism is psychopathy unleashed upon the world.

      • It’s a suicidal race.

        Reply
  17. climatehawk1

     /  November 19, 2016

    Tweet scheduled.

    Reply
  18. June

     /  November 19, 2016

    I really worry about what decreased funding for data collection efforts will do to ongoing and future research efforts. For example, I was looking at the NASA page about Operation IceBridge wrapping up for the Antarctic season and thinking about possible data gaps if the Icesat-2 satellite launch scheduled for 2018 is delayed. The article says the IceBridge missions are currently funded until 2019, to allow time for validating the satellite’s instruments, but if there are severe cuts or political appointees shift priorities, it would be very disruptive. And that’s just one of so many programs that are essential to increasing our understanding of climate and how it is changing.

    Reply
    • We might be able to mitigate if we can win back Congress in 2018. The problem is that there’s a very real risk that US democracy has been seriously compromised through a combination of gerrymandering, corporate media control, and voter suppression. Unless the real story somehow gets out and there’s a serious shift in the electorate, we are fighting one hell of an up hill battle. In addition, there’s a very real move toward the police state in the interim:

      http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/19/us/politics/donald-trump-mike-pompeo-cia.html?_r=0

      This move may shut down political freedoms even as people on Trump’s ‘enemies list’ are at real risk of unjust incarceration. Anyone who thought that Trump being elected was a good thing needs to take a second look at his appointments. These guys are like the 5,000 horsemen of the apocalypse.

      Reply
      • Mark in New England

         /  November 21, 2016

        And, if there’s a major terrorist attack on US soil on their watch, and it is attributed to “Radical Islamic Terrorism”, I think we’ll see possible suspension of the Bill of Rights and full implementation of the police state. All the tools are in place… frightening times. First they’ll come for the Muslims, then their defenders, then…

        Reply
    • Here in NC they are strip cutting living woods to feed the furnaces of Europe. The ones who make these decisions probably never left their concrete and walls.

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  November 19, 2016

        mlparrish, sounds like yet another instance of psychopaths deciding policy.

        Reply
        • Cate
          Yes, a profound disillusionment. They continue in this vein. I feel I have stumbled into an alternative universe.

  19. OT, but followup since the MSM has declared the Zika emergency over:

    Zika virus — concerns for male fertility. David Holmes. Nature Reviews Endocrinology
    (2016). doi:10.1038/nrendo.2016.191. http://www.nature.com/nrendo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nrendo.2016.191.html

    “Although Zika virus (ZIKV) has been detected in the semen of men months after initial infection, the consequences of retention of the virus in the male reproductive tract were not known. Now, a team of investigators led by Kelle Moley and Michael Diamond has shown that ZIKV persists in the testes, sperm and epididymis of mice 21 days after infection and that persistence of the virus is associated with testicular damage, oligospermia and severely impaired male fertility . . .

    Whether persistent ZIKV infection causes the same level of testicular damage in humans remains to be demonstrated. In the meantime, Moley advises, “men travelling to Zika-endemic areas should take the same precautions as women of child-bearing age; that is, wear protective clothing, apply bug spray and stay indoors to avoid infection.” She adds, “the current recommendation is to avoid unprotected sexual intercourse for 6 months following a known Zika infection; however, longitudinal human studies are needed to determine the actual length of time ZIKV persists in the reproductive tract of men.”

    Reply
  20. Syd Bridges

     /  November 19, 2016

    These anomalies, as posted by the tireless Wipneus, are horrifying but not entirely unexpected. Have we now crossed a major tipping point in the cryosphere?

    As someone who once worked on analogue circuits, I well remember what would happen if you got the feedback wrong. As you upped the power things might look OK, but suddenly a transistor would explode or a resistor would start smoking. Other people in the lab would look around and generally laugh and there would be remarks about redoing your sums. Unlike on Planet Earth, you could usually rectify the problem very easily. I do remember one kit amplifier that I built which consistently killed 4 BDY56 power transistors at a go, and after a while, I couldn’t afford to keep trying to get it running.

    We are now entering the “Age of Consequences (c) Neven, and we do not know whether we have any time left to rectify the consequences. Even if things revert back to normal for a while, I expect the wolf will be back at the door very soon, and even more determined than this time.

    The world has just the leader we need to ensure we go over the cliff. Could Trump be the midwife of the Anthropocene Extinction? Such a title would probably appeal to his ego.

    Reply
  21. Ernie Baatz

     /  November 19, 2016

    Reblogged this on Deathical Oil and commented:
    On my way to the Kinder Morgan pipeline protest and saw this article on the warm arctic weather..,

    Reply
  22. Amid higher global temperatures, sea ice at record lows at poles

    Temperatures in the Arctic have soared recently, and scientists are struggling to explain exactly why, and what the consequences will be. Air temperatures have been running more than 35 degrees Fahrenheit (20 degrees Celsius) above average.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/18/world/sea-ice-arctic-antarctic-lows/index.html

    Reply
  23. It appears that some climate modelers have been worried about the abrupt loss of winter arctic sea ice. Some models have been showing similar behavior to what we are seeing now:

    On the Potential for Abrupt Arctic Winter Sea Ice Loss

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0466.1

    “The authors examine the transition from a seasonally ice-covered Arctic to an Arctic Ocean that is sea ice free all year round under increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. It is shown that in comprehensive climate models, such loss of Arctic winter sea ice area is faster than the preceding loss of summer sea ice area for the same rate of warming. In two of the models, several million square kilometers of winter sea ice are lost within only one decade. It is shown that neither surface albedo nor cloud feedbacks can explain the rapid winter ice loss in the climate model MPI-ESM by suppressing both feedbacks in the model. The authors argue that the large sensitivity of winter sea ice area in the models is caused by the asymmetry between melting and freezing: an ice-free summer requires the complete melt of even the thickest sea ice, which is why the perennial ice coverage decreases only gradually as more and more of the thinner ice melts away. In winter, however, sea ice areal coverage remains high as long as sea ice still forms, and then drops to zero wherever the ocean warms sufficiently to no longer form ice during winter. The loss of basinwide Arctic winter sea ice area, however, is still gradual in most models since the threshold mechanism proposed here is reversible and not associated with the existence of multiple steady states. As this occurs in every model analyzed here and is independent of any specific parameterization, it is likely to be relevant in the real world.”

    Reply
    • Image from the above article:

      Reply
    • Some of the models show an abrupt transition like this, within just a few years, due not to summer ice loss but due to delayed or incomplete sea ice formation during the winter.

      The current delayed freezing event might not be as bad as the above scenarios, don’t know. I think there is still time for almost complete freezing to occur this year, don’t know.

      Experimenting with the only planet we’ve got might be a bad idea?

      Maybe the sea ice will form late this year, and form pretty well for the next few years, but this abrupt transition will occur during the next El Nino / La Nina sequence a few years from now?

      From the graphs, it could also be occurring right now.

      Reply
    • Under BAU, there’s a risk that winter sea ice is lost approx 20-30 years after summer sea ice is lost. In my opinion, melt feedbacks from Greenland become rather strong before that happens, though. The date on the near zero winter ice image could well read 2050 or 2060 if all things were equal and there was not a big melt response from Greenland.

      Reply
      • Hi Robert-

        What scares me is that these delayed ice formation events might be occurring early. Way early, and under much less severe conditions than those they are modeling.

        I hope this current event is due to just a couple of big warm storms, in the Arctic, and a coincidental drop in Antarctic sea ice.

        This thermodynamic ratchet effect that they are talking about (gradual melting, but sea ice formation being sudden and sensitively dependent on ocean temperatures) will keep ratcheting down sea ice volume, no matter what the cause of the delayed ice formation event is, I think. So more variable weather and a weakened polar vortex could be activating this ratchet effect.

        Reply
  24. GOES-R launch live stream starting at 5:10pm EST (19-Nov-16).

    https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/#public

    Reply
    • Robert In New Orleans

       /  November 20, 2016

      Congratulations to NASA for the successful launch of GOES-R. As the weather deteriorates all around us, I think we are going to need all of its advanced capabilities just to deal with the extreme storms in our future.

      Reply
    • Josh

       /  November 20, 2016

      An inspiring launch; so much of NASA’s work is in my view representative of the very best side of humanity. Look at all we can do – if we put our minds to it..!

      Reply
  25. Cate

     /  November 19, 2016

    Meanwhile in Canada–

    http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/politics/canada-climate-change-plan-1.3858590

    “The federal government has released its long-term climate strategy with a caution that most Canadians — while sympathetic to the cause — don’t yet understand the “magnitude of the challenge.”
    “Canada’s mid-century strategy is not a blueprint for action and it is not policy prescriptive,” states the document. “Rather, the report is meant to inform the conversation about how Canada can achieve a low-carbon economy.”

    Inform the conversation?

    No strategy, no policy.

    in other words, a complete joke. Just what you’d expect from a govt that is the glove puppet of Big Oil.

    Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  November 20, 2016

      ‘Inform the conversation’-love it! Like the one that the knight had with Death, over a game of chess, in The Seventh Seal.

      Reply
  26. Ridley Jack

     /  November 19, 2016

    Regarding the data Global Sea Ice Area Concentration https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/799246329494913024/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Could 2016 have a high jump in sea level rise?

    Reply
    • The relationship between sea ice loss and land ice loss + sea level rise is one of increasing stress. If you have a larger region of open water near these land glaciers, surface melt pressure increases. In fact, surface melt pressure can increase quite dramatically without the insulating influence of sea ice.

      Reply
  27. coloradobob

     /  November 19, 2016

    Let’s see if this shows up –
    http://iwantsomeproof.com/3d/siv-ds-weekly-3d.asp

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  November 19, 2016

      Rats, it’s the Arctic death spiral in a great representation.
      One more try –

      http://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/pettit-climate-graphs/3d#3dsivds7d

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  November 20, 2016

        That spiral is a powerful graphic, cb—Arctic sea ice goin’ right down the drain.

        Reply
        • coloradobob

           /  November 20, 2016

          Quoting 55. Neapolitan: Another graph to illustrate what’s going on at the top of the world:

          I was looking at that Arctic death spiral graph from the Pettit Climate Graphs, on the last thread . It starts out as a rather smooth linear circle from 79′ steady contracting. Then about 2007 these dents appear in the spiral in Sept-Oct period. It’s really a clear way to see things we know, in a new light.

          The folks that follow this subject have their hair on fire. The folks who’s world end at the end of their nose and toes, not so much.
          I’ve been reading this stuff as long as any lay person, and if I hair it would be burning too. This dipole in the North is really scary. Just watch these new storms off the coast Europe tonight. Where are they headed ? Into the Arctic ?

          One of the great laws of physics –
          Heat seeks cold. Heat seeks a condenser. This why milk stays cold in your refrigerator. We run this backwards. in a small box. Clever ain’t it? We don’t make cold, we take away heat. Heat is this key.

          Unfortunately, as our oceans heat up, they are not in a small box. And this law is not running backwards because we are clever. Which means, heat from last summer’s ocean warming is seeking ice , to kill it.

          And it means more and more of these ever more deep lows going places we never dreamed of at times we never though of.

  28. ktjpsmom

     /  November 19, 2016

    I am a complete amateur here, but am incredibly interested in the serious information available and the coming eco-disaster. I will never understand why people do not take this seriously, as in “the planet is dying, get a clue.” What world will be here for my 14 month old grandson.

    Reply
    • Hello, KT and welcome. The coming world is a tough place. Whether or not it is survivable will depend on if we are able to halt fossil fuel burning soon, on whether we’ll be able to work together and not to fragment into our own fearful corners. Right now, it appears that Trump is about to turn the U.S. in the exact wrong direction. There are a few things we can do to resist this rush toward disaster. But our options are limited and I don’t think the push for turning away from fossil fuels can effectively weather 4 years of Trump without some kind of considerable counter-effort. I wish I had better news for your son. He and everyone of us deserves so much better than this.

      Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  November 20, 2016

      Buckle your chin strap.

      Reply
  29. coloradobob

     /  November 20, 2016

    Wind off France tonight is 80 mph. , and another low will form on it’s heels. Both are headed North , because of that deep cold high over Russia.

    Reply
  30. Jay M

     /  November 20, 2016

    I don’t know what to say. The regime change has happened. My gut feeling is that pressure needs to be brought when extreme climate events hit US real estate, a la LA and the Carolinas with persistent lows and stalled hurricanes. That being said, I imagine the instinct will be to bail out the big property owners rather than decarbonization. Don’t want to wish harm to fellow citizens from climate catastrophes. Somehow the icecap diminishing presages more instability for us.

    Reply
    • Jay — if we keep burning fossil fuels there’s no way to adapt. We’ve already locked in some rather harmful rates of sea level rise. And that will be hard to deal with. But sea level rise is just one of many, many issues that come with the kind of hothouse event that we are now in the process of making worse.

      Reply
  31. Tigertown

     /  November 20, 2016

    I read an article recently that somewhat explains the timing of what is happening now climate-wise. The Yale article explained that what many claimed to be a pause in global warming was actually explained by the fact that the oceans had absorbed so much of the heat over the last several decades. About 2x 10tothe23rd Joules was the estimated amount stored in the oceans, and the question asked was how muck more could be stored. Apparently, not much as it seems these are loosing the buffering effect and thus allowing more heat to go elsewhere in the environment. Anyway will try to post the link.

    http://e360.yale.edu/feature/how_long_can_oceans_continue_to_absorb_earths_excess_heat/2860/

    Reply
  32. coloradobob

     /  November 20, 2016

    Rs –
    Are you a wake ? Let[s ta;k.

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  November 20, 2016

      All that hell and breakfast talk I’ve been hammering for years.

      Reply
      • coloradobob

         /  November 20, 2016

        God, I am so a lone. I carry things that no man wants to know.

        Reply
      • coloradobob

         /  November 20, 2016

        When I was 17 teen my only goal was to curl my toes over the edge. I was sure a new brighter world lay beyond. Now, 50 years later, I am a part of that flock of fools. We will not have fun, fun till daddy takes our T-bird away.

        Reply
        • I was a dreamer and an idealist. I, too, thought the future held more. But even then, there were many things that seemed ominous and grim. The internal ‘is something weird going on with the climate’ monologue began in the 80s with some of those earlier global warming reports. I guess I was a bit of a geek. But, yeah, I agree, daddy needs to take the T bird away.

        • lesliegraham1

           /  November 20, 2016

          How about Daddy swaps the T-bird for a Tesla 3 and a roof full of solar tiles to charge it?. Faster and cheaper too.
          The renewables revolution has the potential to be the new driver for the global economy in much the same way as oil was in the early 20th century.
          You will have much more success getting greedy self-obsessed ignoramuses to cut their carbon emissions if you point out that a Tesla is waaay cooler than their current paso de moda piece of junk rather than saying they have to put their toys away.

        • I agree Leslie. I hope that many T birds get swapped with Teslas over the coming years.

    • I’m here. Speak on, my friend.

      Reply
      • coloradobob

         /  November 20, 2016

        We are looking down the throat of the monster. No human has ever seen this. 50 years ago I just looking over my toes.

        Reply
  33. coloradobob

     /  November 20, 2016

    RS –
    You have no idea how important you are to so many of us.

    Reply
    • You said it, my friend. We’re all just here, staring over our toes, be holding that great abyss that we have made for ourselves. But if we must go into the darkness, isn’t it better to carry a light with us on the way down?

      Reply
  34. Tigertown

     /  November 20, 2016

    I just noticed coloradobob had a link to a very similar article to the one I posted about the oceans sequestering heat. His article link was for an earlier dated one, but the Yale article had very similar content.

    On another note, I noticed the models are not showing the Arctic temp. anomaly going away for at least several days.

    Reply
  35. coloradobob

     /  November 20, 2016

    Muddy Waters plays “Manish Boy”

    Reply
  36. coloradobob

     /  November 20, 2016

    This guy was on the cover in 1968

    Reply
  37. coloradobob

     /  November 20, 2016

    You have no idea how important these men ideas are. I was working the light show in 1968 when Jimmy Reed was so drunk he couldn’t make the stage.

    You have no idea what failing means.

    Reply
  38. It’s about time people start realizing what is actually going on around them on this planet instead of being stuck in their tunnel vision of what they may call life. Nice to know that there are plenty of others who realize reality. Thank U.

    Reply
  39. coloradobob

     /  November 20, 2016

    I was a really young fool in the light show at the Vulcan Gas Company, I knew Jim Franklin.

    He was a genius.

    Reply
    • Just want to say, Bob, that none of this here would have happened without you. Four years ago and this little corner was just you and me. Your wisdom enriched me, as I’m sure it has many across these ghostly threads. You did the right thing when many others stood by and only gratified themselves. You’re a hero in that seemingly hopeless quest for justice and hope. I’m proud to have been here with you.

      Reply
      • coloradobob

         /  November 20, 2016

        ” Four years ago and this little corner was just you and me.”

        Amen. And DTL came, now we are lost.

        I feel like Travis at the Alamo.

        Reply
  40. This is just crazy-

    JAXA has Arctic Sea Ice extent for Nov 19 at 1.1 Million km² below the previous record of 2012.

    We are nearly 2 million km²below the average of the 2000’s decade ( already lower than “normal”)

    Reply
  41. coloradobob

     /  November 20, 2016

    He burn huge amounts of frankincense to cover the sour beer on our floor. I’ll never forget that.
    I really was at 940 Pearl St. I really was at the Vulcan Gas Company. I really was on the West end of the Unitas, I really did spent a winter at – 55 degrees.

    I only say all this because we live in a world of fake news. My life is not fake.

    Reply
  42. coloradobob

     /  November 20, 2016

    RS –
    You have one of the great sites on the web. DTL and I are so glad we helped make with it you. You did the work, we just fed some of the corn. ,

    Reply
  43. coloradobob

     /  November 20, 2016

    I am so sad and so crazy over DTL.

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  November 20, 2016

      We too are concerned for DTL, has anyone heard anything.
      If it is his time to part the veil, he will be welcomed and loved there as well, in a better place, but I suspect he will be volunteering (that is apparently how it happens there) to be part of the army of saints that is already engaged in the war of revelations reaching out to those that listen.
      If his time has come and for our selfish reasons I hope not, he will contact you in some way, maybe in your dreams to give you strength and guidance.
      My Wendy had an “Auntie Anne” who looked after a girls hostel that the girls from the cottage homes moved to when they started work 6′ 2″ and solid, kept the boys in line. She became like Wendies mum and best friend, very religious, practical and to me she was my Mother in law.
      She came down with cancer and was skin and bone and in a coma in a hospice, we sat with her and went home, Wendy was praying for her to come back and say goodbye to those that loved her, that night she had a dream and was told her prayer was granted she would have 1 week and there was a vision of Auntie Anne sitting up with her usual vigour and humour and life eating a hearty breakfast. We met the priest gong into give the last rites.

      It was a wonderfull week and Auntie Anne called Wendy aside when we were alone and said, please don’t call me back again. I was so happy. It is wonderful there.

      So many misunderstand God, Heaven etc. As Wendy was told when thewre was a news item about the search for life on mars. It is every where, they just don’t recognise it.

      Which brings me to a recent hypothesis which from what I have been told is close to reality, but the reality is not as mechanistic, that is just our limited comprehension that frames it that way.

      Dark Matter and Energy is not dark, just we cannot measure it, Mystics know it as Qi and Prahna and can work with it it can be sensed and worked with by living creatures who are part of it as Jesus indicated.

      http://www.sciencealert.com/an-astrophysicists-says-we-might-not-be-able-to-distinguish-between-aliens-and-the-laws-of-physics

      Sorry for getting a bit OT, but we don’t realise how important our fight for Gods creation is and the forces arrayed against us, or those helping.

      Call it the final exam testing our worth individually and as a species

      Be strong, you are not alone

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  November 20, 2016

        Abel, yes. Yes. Not only dark matter/energy, but multiple interactive universes, not just parallel, but interpenetrating. With quantum mechanics, science is finally getting an inkling of what religion has known for millennia. Religion, I find, is just another kind of searching for truth, the ultimate truth, the “theory of everything.”

        I come here every day and look for DT, hoping to see him back and in fighting trim. I miss his posts because he always saw stuff the rest of us missed. He was inspiring and generous, and he’s not the only one. cb riffs like Dylan here, gives out music as soul-food. This is not a blog, This is a place where I come to contemplate, with kindred spirits, this strange old life on our beloved planet. Thank you to everyone who makes it what it is, and especially RS for keeping it so real.

        Reply
      • Suzanne

         /  November 20, 2016

        Thank you for sharing. And thank you for the link. Here is a link to the full story…at Nautilus:
        http://nautil.us/issue/42/fakes/is-physical-law-an-alien-intelligence

        And a quote at the end of that article:

        Perhaps hyper-advanced life isn’t just external. Perhaps it’s already all around. It is embedded in what we perceive to be physics itself, from the root behavior of particles and fields to the phenomena of complexity and emergence.

        In other words, life might not just be in the equations. It might be the equations.

        Reply
  44. coloradobob

     /  November 20, 2016

    Surely , Hell comes breakfast.

    Reply
  45. coloradobob

     /  November 20, 2016

    I did not pick this phrase lightly , the screen writers in 1976 had no clue what was coming.

    But I picked it. For our world today. And I was right .

    “Get ready little lady, hell is coming to breakfast,”

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  November 20, 2016

      Clint Eastwood rides in and saves the day . Mr. Trump will let you die at the hands of the Comanches.

      Reply
  46. coloradobob

     /  November 20, 2016

    Bad trade agreements , and all that.

    Brings me to Pecos. this was the richest place in New Mexico. Ir was the axis between the plains, and pottery. They had a “fence” , it was 18 inches tall. At sunset you had to leave.

    This was the richest tax the Spanish found in the new world. It sets next to the Interstate, if you can find ir.

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  November 20, 2016

      Sorry in North America, they never found a nickle.

      Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  November 20, 2016

      The year before the Spanish came to Pecos.

      It was the richest place within a 1,000 miles. And it had been for 100’s of years. It was the classic place between one set of pots, and another set of hides. And their fence was only 18 inches tall.

      Reply
      • coloradobob

         /  November 20, 2016

        They were trading with the Comanches, they only died out with smallpox. It was a great world before we came.

        Reply
  47. wili

     /  November 20, 2016

    WaPo’s Capitol Weather Gang has now taken up the story: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/11/18/while-the-north-pole-warms-beyond-the-melting-point-its-freakishly-cold-in-siberia/

    “While the North Pole warms beyond the melting point, it’s freakishly cold in Siberia”

    “…With the Northern Hemisphere’s coldest air displaced over Siberia, the jet stream has taken on a configuration to direct mild air into the Arctic.

    “The record-breaking ridge over Eurasia in conjunction with a low pressure in the North Pacific has enabled warm air to flood the Arctic from both the Pacific and Atlantic,” said Zack Labe, a PhD student at the University of California at Irvine who studies the Arctic.

    Model forecasts suggest this pattern will break down over the next week as the Siberian high sinks southwestward into the Balkans, where exceptionally cold weather will move in.

    Siberia is forecast to turn less cold, while the Arctic remains much warmer than normal, which in recent times seems to be the new normal.”

    Reply
  48. coloradobob

     /  November 20, 2016

    Small Pox, our new government hates the UN. Simple truth they have been hunting it for decades. Poilo our new government hates the UN. Simple truth they have been hunting it for decades.

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  November 20, 2016

      The UN , not a right wing think tank drove small pox off the Earth. Small Pox was the Largest killer in the history of mankind.

      Reply
      • coloradobob

         /  November 20, 2016

        They’re after Poilo as well. When was the last time ,a right wing think tank. really solved anything?

        Reply
  49. coloradobob

     /  November 20, 2016

    The right wing needs a bumper sticker, and a general. The left wing is writing a 47 page manifesto on why they think we might need a general.

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  November 20, 2016

      The left all think they are all Jobs, Cesarean. bright inventive. Well we now have a fascist government.

      Reply
  50. coloradobob

     /  November 20, 2016

    Hell comes to breakfast.

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  November 20, 2016

      Years ago when I ripped off Lone Wati , I had known idea what this boiled down version would mean. Hell really is coming breakfast. And you ain’t makin’ pancakes when it comes.

      Reply
      • coloradobob

         /  November 20, 2016

        Hell really is coming breakfast. And you ain’t makin’ pancakes when it comes.

        Reply
        • coloradobob

           /  November 20, 2016

          As a writer, Saying it all in one line . Perfect. Now. let’s test my folly.

  51. enjoying a frozen northern Ireland this morning .. the air sent south as that low pushed into Fram . Since as a child I realized there was nothing but water and ice between me and the North pole I have had a deep interest in Climate and weather . Thankful of the coming pause in heat pouring north . Still .. I started jumping up and down with excitement as I saw the late October storm and all that has happened since. It is obvious that our ‘leaders’ need notal meltout before waking up .. way too late

    Reply
  52. Cate

     /  November 20, 2016

    http://grist.org/politics/climate-movement-trump-strategy

    How to fight Trump climate policy: organize, organize, organize.

    “Progressives across the board are now navigating a post-election minefield. Some have been tempted to normalize Trump’s positions and pledge to work with him if he comes around, while many others have no illusions about what his presidency will bring. In wide-ranging interviews across the movement in the week after Trump’s election, environmental leaders and activists explained how they are gearing up to fight. Their message? Have hope.”

    Strategies detailed in the article:

    1. Apply public pressure.

    2. Thanks, Obama.

    3. Sue the bastards.

    4. Win in the states.

    5. Expand the movement

    “The climate movement has a tool at its disposal that no election can take away — the movement itself, which has changed dramatically over the past few years and now includes a much larger coalition of faces and groups.”

    The people, united, will never be defeated.

    Reply
    • John McCormick

       /  November 20, 2016

      If this is a strategy, it is like curdled milk. Not directed at you Cate.

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  November 21, 2016

        No worries, John. The article struck me more as a kind of outline of possible routes forward rather than as completely thought-out strategies. I think it’s really important right now for all the climate activist groups—SierraClub, 350.org, Climate Mobilization, science groups, student groups, etc etc, to start proactively working together, to pool resources in a focused and organized way, to get a lot more strategic in selecting and targeting, and to avoid unnecessary duplication while piling on the action and ramping up the messaging. A global climate action consortium.

        Reply
        • Cate

           /  November 21, 2016

          ..in the old think-globally act-locally tradition of activism, of course.🙂

        • Mark in OZ

           /  November 21, 2016

          Was how I saw it too, Cate.
          Eventually, it will be ‘all hands on deck’ and just ‘knowing more’ and being ‘better connected’ than one is now will be a benefit for everyone interested in finding a way to deal with this.

          And, it’s about time the real authorities (trained scientific experts) stop their dignified and diplomatic dialogue with imbeciles who feign concern but are nothing more than captured agents to the FF’s.

          Really liked this:

          “NASA chief slaps down climate sceptic (Australian) senator Malcolm Roberts: ‘You hold a number of misconceptions’.

          Sometimes you gotta throw a brushback pitch if a batter is crowding the plate. And sometimes the only pitch to throw, when the game dynamics need to evolve, is the ‘beaner’.

          And this:

          ““I’m aware of who Malcolm Roberts is, and the only surprise is that he is in fact a senator”
          Gavin Schmidt, NASA GISS director

          http://www.canberratimes.com.au/environment/climate-change/nasa-chief-slaps-down-climate-sceptic-senator-malcolm-roberts-you-hold-a-number-of-misconceptions-20161120-gstp0y.html

    • Thanks for this, Cate. Grist is spot on here, IMO.

      Reply
  53. Syd Bridges

     /  November 20, 2016

    I guess it was the late 70s or early 80s that I started reading about Chaos Theory in magazines like Scientific American and New Scientist. I did not understand the mathematics, but the concepts were clear. Since that time I have visualized the climate system as a three-dimensional surface containing many adjacent climate regimes: each in their own basin with their own chaotic attractor. We are in the benign Holocene basin at present, like a ball bearing rolling around in a safe environment.

    However, we have been giving that ball bearing more and more energy and it is now moving much faster and is climbing the wall of the Holocene basin. At some point it will hit a coll in that wall, and will then move into an adjacent basin. What will that look like? It is likely to be very different from the climate regime we know.

    After such a change of attractor basin, what comes next? With enormous luck we might return to the Holocene basin, but I think it much more likely that we would either stay in the new basin or move into yet another neighboring basin. How can agriculture and infrastructure deal with such changes? To me, the only sensible thing to do is to lessen the energy of that ball bearing so that we stay in the Holocene attractor basin. We know next to nothing about the other attractor basins: their number; their climate regimes; or their stability. The one thing that is certain is that we and all life have adapted to the Holocene basin and we are very unlikely to fare well in another one.

    Reply
    • Hy Syd-

      Nice image, and right on, I think.

      And one of the attractor basins accessible from this one might be a real pothole- more like a mine shaft.

      If the methane hydrate dissociation scenario is really a general explanation for most of the great mass extinction events of the past, our ball bearing could be in free fall right soon, as the ice albedo feedback kicks in, Arctic permafrost melts and rots, and billions (maybe even trillions) of tons of methane hydrate dissociate.

      The ability of whole ocean basins to oxidize methane could be overwhelmed, Strange and nasty atmospheric chemistry effects could occur, adding strong positive feedback to the change in attractor basin. We’ve added so much energy to the ball bearing, and have done this so consistently, that we might plunge straight down the hothouse mass extinction mine shaft.

      http://www.killerinourmidst.com/

      KILLER IN OUR MIDST
      Methane Catastrophes in Earth’s Past . . . and Near Future?

      Meanwhile, Trump fiddles while the earth burns, it looks like. Myron Ebell, a paid climate science denier is overlooking Trump’s EPA transition. Bannon, who calls people who can actually see a melting icecap “Greentards” is Trump’s chief strategist.

      Oh, for a President with one good eye and half a brain!

      Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  November 22, 2016

      Syd, chaos is descending in human affairs, too. How else to explain the ‘strange attractor’ Trump, and his legions of Doppelgangers throughout the Anglosphere. We have some in Australia, in the Murdoch MSM and hard Right politics, that make Trump look like Einstein.

      Reply
      • Hi Mulga-

        It’s the power of denial, Mulga, I think.

        Have you ever been infuriated at someone, and then realized that anger was because somebody was trying to tell you something that was true but you did not want to admit?

        I have done that, myself. A good percentage of the American public is in that position right now. What they are hoping is that Trump will solve the problem, somehow, in a way that will allow them to not admit that they were wrong, I think.

        It’s also the power of hidden guilt. I think that many of the climate change deniers are secretly guilty about their part in the fossil fuel economy, and are in denial of that, too.

        And then there is the power of group reinforcement. The fossil fuel industry with it’s hidden support of global warming denial think tanks helped create this group reinforced denial.

        Trump tells his supporters what they want to hear, that the fossil fueled American Dream is still viable and wonderful and patriotic. We try to tell them something different – that the American Dream could be destroying the biosphere.

        Is it any wonder that the Trump supporters and climate science deniers reject what we try to tell them?

        Australia must have its own version of the national dream – a story about how the immigrants built the country and the economy with fossil fuels and sweat.

        Malcolm Roberts, one of your climate science deniers has had a long involvement in the coal industry. He must be desperate to deny that most of his life has been spent destabilizing the climate.

        Reply
  54. CB: This is for you. And Cate, Mulga, and everybody else here that is feeling just a little uncomfortable. Which I’m guessing is everybody because how can we not be?

    Nobody said it was going to be fun.

    “Enlightenment is a destructive process. It has nothing to do with becoming better or being happier. Enlightenment is the crumbling away of untruth. It’s seeing through the facade of
    pretence. It’s the complete eradication of everything we imagined to be true.”

    Adyashanti

    Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  November 22, 2016

      seal, enlightenment also means lightening the burden of existence, by getting rid of excess baggage. Like Hope, a commodity much debased by recent over-use and its refusal to materialise. As that old optimist, Schopenhauer, observed,
      ‘He who has lost all hope has also lost all fear; this is the meaning of the expression ‘desperate’. It is natural to a man to believe what he wishes to be true, and to believe it because he wishes it. If this characteristic of our nature, at once beneficial and assuaging, is rooted out by many hard blows of fate, and a man comes, conversely, to a condition in which he believes a thing must happen because he does not wish it, and what he wishes to happen can never be, just because he wishes it, this in reality the state described as ‘desperation”.
      I reckon we are in a state of desperation, and the loss of hope will be compensated by the loss of fear, and we must be driven on by a righteousness in our desperation, because EVERYTHING we wish for is a stake.

      Reply
  55. Tigertown

     /  November 20, 2016

    Someone just posted these on the ASIF, ONE for the N Polar Vortex and one the S Polar Vortex.

    Reply
  56. utoutback

     /  November 20, 2016

    “god is alive, magic is afoot”
    dedicated to RS, Colorado Bob, DTL, et.al.

    Let us accept that God by definition is omniscient, omnipotent & omnipresent.
    That means God is within & without us penetrating every quantum of existence.
    Thus, but abusing the world we are abusing ourselves, our families, all things.
    This is sacrilege.

    Reply
  57. Shawn Redmond

     /  November 20, 2016

    Watching the NFL today and seeing an unbelievable number of missed point afters it set me to wondering… These athletes are at the upper edge of what we can achieve as humans. Is the elevated level of co2 in the air starting to effect our ability to preform at our very best? According to this study from Harvard’s and some others, https://thinkprogress.org/exclusive-elevated-co2-levels-directly-affect-human-cognition-new-harvard-study-shows-2748e7378941#.hbvzh8kt6, cognitive abilities start to suffer at 400 ppm in indoor situations. If your required to preform at the highest of levels this will start to show up at your upper most working capacity. Cognitive responses have some influence over physical motion especially at the upper limits of ones abilities. These co2 rates are known to be much higher in bigger urban settings. This set me to thinking that maybe some of the “thinking” that goes on in the board rooms and political arenas that control our mutual destinies is suffering from more than just greed. Maybe we are all suffering from less than optimal out comes from our decisions due to something as simple as to much pollution. These studies are looking at co2 only and the co2e is running in the 500 ppm +/- area. Whether the other parts have an effect or not is yet another debate. However the other parts are taking up space that may otherwise be more oxygen for our grey matter. Is it the co2 that is impairing us on its own or are all the pollutants combined having a greater effect. You know, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. Maybe our collective ability to do the right thing is permanently handicapped due to living in a sewer of our own making. In light of recent world affairs it would seem something is going on that defies all logic.
    “The new study, led by Dr. Joe Allen, Director of Harvard’s Healthy Buildings program, and Dr. John Spengler, Professor of Environmental Health and Human Habitation at Harvard, used a lower CO2 baseline than the earlier study. They found that, on average, a typical participant’s cognitive scores dropped 21 percent with a 400 ppm increase in CO2. Here are their astonishing findings for four of the nine cognitive functions scored in a double-blind test of the impact of elevated CO2 levels:”

    Reply
    • Shawn Redmond

       /  November 20, 2016

      Side note: 8 missed single points all last year. At half time during the second game we’re up to 11 missed single points just today. Funny what will set a person to thinking.

      Reply
    • redskylite

       /  November 21, 2016

      I’ve been thinking exactly the same lately. it would explain a lot, like BREXIT result, U.S Election result, failure of the polls in both cases. Sounds like an early Star Trek plot, but I’ve read studies on fish behavior changing as the water gets more carbonated. Like to see more study on this – we need to know what is in store for us.

      Reply
    • Vic

       /  November 21, 2016

      Yes, more studies please. As the lurch to the Right continues to gain momentum, could it be that elevated CO2 levels have an effect on brain structures like these ?

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biology_and_political_orientation

      Reply
    • Vic

       /  November 21, 2016

      Ocean acidification’s other evil twin – Blood acidification.
      Going from 280 to 400 ppm CO2 we’ve increased the pH of our blood by 0.1 (equivalent to an increase in acidity of 30%).

      “Increased concentrations of CO2 lead to metabolic acidosis and an array of adverse health effects, going far beyond lowered intelligence.”

      http://www.skepticalscience.com/how-sapiens-in-the-world-of-high-co2-concentration.html

      Reply
      • Abel Adamski

         /  November 21, 2016

        Worth considering the evolution of humanity and mammals generally, our earliest ancestors who developed the primitive brain and basic metabolic/enzymatic structures did so in relatively high CO2 , Lucy was 1.5 Mill years ago.
        It was 1 Million years ago that the CO2 recirculating pool dropped the CO2 level to a point that locked in the 100,000 year ice age cycle which has followed during which time CO2 peaked at approx 285 ppm.

        Man as we know him and the other primates developed our higher functions and reasoning etc during that Million years, i.e a peak CO2 of 285 ppm.

        You could say we are stepping out of the basic design parameters for the higher order being and reverting to a more basic tribal flee and fight primitive mode which is still in the primitive part of our brain and DNA

        Just a thought

        Reply
      • wili

         /  November 21, 2016

        As the comments section on the SkS article that graph is drawn from suggest, that particular graph seems to be highly suspect, at least for anything besides very short-term response (unless we are perhaps talking about human blood that is _not_ in a human body?? in which case…relevance?). But we certainly don’t have any studies for people who are continually high levels of CO2 throughout their lifetimes. As with everything else, we are conducting an uncontrolled experiment on all of humanity, on all life on the planet, and on all the systems that support the living communities of the planet.

        Reply
        • Vic

           /  November 22, 2016

          Yes, I agree Wili. I should have applied more scrutiny to such out of the ballpark claims. The DS Robertson stuff does seem overly alarmist.

        • The effects on human cognition are well documented. Blood acidity is less conclusive.

    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  November 22, 2016

      Shawn, it’s not just the crap breathed in, but the junk consumed orally, replete with metabolic poisons like corn fructose, other sugars and salt, that is killing our brains. And the junk food peddling psychopaths REFUSE to remove the poisons because ‘profit maximisation’ is all they know on Earth, and all they need to know, to be capitalists. Then there are all the other pollutants, the tens of thousands of previously unknown chemicals, GE crops, nano-particles that can enter cells and even cell structures, micro-wave radiation, radio-active particles etc, etc. I’m not at all surprised by the triumph of mass moroncy-it’s been building for years.

      Reply
  58. Genomik

     /  November 21, 2016

    More than 7,500 people have signed a Change.org petition to have Silicon Valley titan Elon Musk diplomatically knock some science into President-elect Donald Trump.

    https://www.inverse.com/article/23830-change-org-petition-donald-trump-elon-musk-climate-change-clean-energy

    Reply
  59. Marcusblanc

     /  November 21, 2016

    For DT, CB and all who bring links and thoughts here… keep your chins up, as best you can.

    Reply
    • wili

       /  November 21, 2016

      And another by the same name. “I cannot share your laughter, ship of fools…”

      Reply
  60. Jay M

     /  November 21, 2016

    Been looking around to track down DTL. Last tweet 10/31, I think his last post here was about 10 days previous. Phone numbers in Santa Barbara are down. I think he referred to medical issues in RS posts, but haven’t located that. I am near Portland and that was where he was living. Best case, went out to the pipeline protest?

    Reply
    • Jay M

       /  November 21, 2016

      So, try and follow up on this:
      10/13
      Cheers. DT in PDX hospital. Bad lung infection/heart prob. ON THE MEND pronto. Here for a few days. High dry 5th floor. Watch weather/clime news from bed. PDX hosp care VERY GOOD. Been out of breath/feel BAD for past 10 days.
      How’s Robert and clan?🙂
      Ps Today’s PBS Newshour — last essay, had a story of PDX ‘moss’ as collector of air pollutants.
      CHEERS — OUT
      DT

      Reply
      • wili

         /  November 21, 2016

        Thanks, Jay. Good to hear he’s on the mend.

        Reply
        • Jay M

           /  November 21, 2016

          Hi Wili–that was the Oct 13 post from the hospital. Not current

      • Yes. This was the last communication I’ve seen on the blog. I did correspond with him briefly on twitter. Said he was on the mend. Checked up a couple of days later and no reply.

        Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  November 21, 2016

      I’ve been thinking of, and worried about, DT. I wish I knew of some way to contact him, but other than his wonderful contributions here, I really don’t know anything about him. It’s a rather strange situation when you think about it. I find myself deeply saddened and worried about someone I have never met, never spoke to or ever had a one on one conversation with. He has grown on me over the years, with his witty comments and insightful contributions, and I never realized how much I appreciated his presence here until it was suddenly absent. DT, if you see this, I just want you to know that your voice has not fallen on deaf ears. You’ve contributed much to this world, and have certainly had an impact. I hope that we can be treated to your views and wisdom for years to come.

      Our collective concern for DT has reminded me what a special place this blog has become. While i have never met any of you, I feel like you understand me and can empathize with me better than any of my friends and family. In this increasingly fact-free delusion that America has become it is getting harder and harder to have a meaningful conversation about objective reality, and even harder to find someone who actually cares about what we’re doing to our planet. Maybe that’s why we’re so concerned when one of us Scribblers goes silent, because we care more than the average person. We care about our fellow humans and plants and animals. And maybe we recognize what a rare breed we have here in Robert’s comments section, so “losing” someone is that much harder.

      DT, we miss you and hope to hear from you soon! And Robert, thank you again for the incredibly important space you have created here. And thank you to all my friends here. You may not realize it, but I appreciate each and every one of you. And a special thank you to Colorado Bob for introducing me to this blog many years ago🙂

      Reply
      • wili

         /  November 21, 2016

        Yes, these are odd–close but disconnected–communities we form online. Thanks and best wishes to all.

        Reply
      • June

         /  November 21, 2016

        I feel the same way, Ryan. Thank you for voicing it so well.

        Reply
      • Suzanne

         /  November 21, 2016

        Ryan…you so beautifully expressed the comfort I feel when coming here with other like minded individuals…who know the danger CC and who have made this a priority in their lives. In my “off line” life…I feel like most times I am screaming into the wind. At least here, I don’t feel so alone.

        Reply
        • Cate

           /  November 21, 2016

          Ryan, thank you for expressing so beautifully what I think many of us are feeling right now. You are a born writer, my friend.

      • Thanks for the hearfelt well-wishing for DT, Ryan! I will send this along if I can. No contact for a while, though.

        Reply
      • Ryan,
        I know we are all worried about dt. I am not certain of proper action in this situation, regarding privacy and so forth. It is possible to find a DT Lange in Portland OR on net look-ups. But whether to try to contact to see that is our dt, I don’t know.

        Reply
  61. Abel Adamski

     /  November 21, 2016

    Some respite for the soul, Somewhere over the rainbow and Danny boy by my fave genius fiddler

    Reply
  62. Genomik

     /  November 21, 2016

    Ramez is a futurist and sci-fi writer with great knowledge of solar etc.

    To Fight Climate Change in the Trump Era, Focus on the States

    Short Version

    If you read nothing else in this post, follow these three steps:

    Find your state legislators and the contact info for your Governor’s office.
    Contact them: Call them up. Find out when their next town hall meeting is, and show up. Bring friends, or ask your friends to call too.
    Tell them you want to see more clean energy in your state. Tell them clean energy creates jobs. Tell them clean energy means cleaner air and water, and a healthier environment for the kids in your state.
    Note: Say “Clean Energy” instead of “Climate Change”

    If you live in a deep blue state, talking climate change may work. But in a purple or red state, or, heck, even in most blue states, “boosting clean energy” is remarkably more popular than “fighting climate change”. Clean energy is popular among both Democrats and Republicans. Fighting climate change isn’t.

    That’s why, in the current environment, where Republicans control the White House, the Congress, and the majority of state legislatures, the framing has to shift to “clean energy” if we want to see progress.

    http://rameznaam.com/2016/11/20/fighting-climate-change-trump-era-state-action/

    Reply
  63. Professor Wilkerson expects a decline in the republic as the military steps in to deal with climate change because the civil government won’t (The Evolution and Migration of Sea Level Hinge Points – 2).

    Reply
  64. Ryan in New England

     /  November 21, 2016

    This just blows my mind. How can sea ice be declining so much at the end of November, the beginning of what used to be a frigid polar night?

    Reply
  65. Henri

     /  November 21, 2016

    http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Unprecedented-More-than-100-million-trees-10624642.php

    One in three Californian tree now dead due to the drought and no relief in sight.

    Reply
  66. Tom

     /  November 21, 2016

    We continue to make it worse.

    All Eyes On Dakota Access – All Eyes Off Bakken Genocide
    http://www.theartofannihilation.com/all-eyes-on-dakota-access-all-eyes-off-bakken-genocide/

    Bottom line – Indigenous peoples cannot and will not survive this. This is genocide.

    Reply
  67. Cate

     /  November 21, 2016

    Following up on Dredd’s comment—retired Col Lawrence Wilkerson, Viet Nam vet and former chief of staff for Sec of State Colin Powell, is a self-described “Eisenhower republican”. This is the transcript of an interview on a range of topics around national security, including predatory capitalism and climate change. It’s in three parts, bit of a lengthy read but interesting, given the man’s long experience in military and public affairs. Dated 2014—-but perhaps even more timely now, almost prescient in places…… Prof Wilkerson teaches courses in national security at College of William and Mary and GWU.

    http://www.opednews.com/articles/Lawrence-Wilkerson-Intervi-by-Rob-Kall-Capitalism_China_Climate-Change_Corporations-140624-673.html&series=347

    Reply
    • June

       /  November 21, 2016

      Dredd, Cate, thanks for this. I’ve only read the first part, but plan to read the rest. He describes himself as an Eisenhower Republican, but clearly describes predatory capitalism, the plutocracy and how it is driving the U.S., and as climate change accelerates, the entire world, off the cliff. I hope he’s wrong about the only hope of changing course being blood in the streets, but I’m afraid it is becoming more likely now.

      Reply
        • June

           /  November 21, 2016

          You’re right, wili. Over 160 unarmed people hurt. I think law enforcement is feeling emboldened by the election, knowing Obama is basically irrelevant now.

        • JPL

           /  November 21, 2016

        • Another no DAPL call to arms:

          Jennifer just posted a note on the Mni Wiconi – Water is Life! NoDAPL Solidarity with Standing Rock! discussion board:

          Hello, all. I’m sure by now a lot of us have seen what happened last night. I’ve just noticed a post from Sacred Stone Camp on Facebook for a call to action. Below is the post:

          “In wake of the events from last night, we are calling for a Week of Solidarity Actions starting November 25th, culminating with a Global Day of Action on December 1st.
          The main targets are the banks funding the Dakota Access Pipeline and the Sheriff Departments who have been brought in to Standing Rock to
          brutalize water protectors.
          If you care about what is happening at Standing Rock, find a target, organize an action, and shut something down: https://nodaplsolidarity.org/

          You can respond to this post on the discussion board by clicking here.

          — Action Network

        • So wrong. I am sad to think of how much worse this will get under Trump. Sad to think that these protests are now a necessary action because leaders have failed to do enough to protect the climate, failed to do enough to wean us off fossil fuels. But these kinds of protests are now absolutely necessary. And my heart goes out to the brave Native Americans who have honorably and peacefully protested against this pipeline.

  68. National Hurricane Center reports the formation of a tropical depression in the Caribbean off the shore of Central America. A rare even in late November?

    Reply
  69. Hi Robert et al.

    I think you might find this talk by Rob de Conto about what the Paris agreement might mean for projections of sea-level rise from the Antarctic.

    Also the talk before his by Ben Marzeion about commited melting of mountain glaciers to different CO2 forcings is also very informative. (It starts at about 16mins)

    Reply
  70. Tom

     /  November 21, 2016

    Breaking news: Fukushima hit with a 7.3 earthquake (off the coast) – tsunami warning issued.

    Stay tuned

    Reply
  71. Edward

     /  November 22, 2016

    Related article.

    The Arctic Warms Up For Trump
    http://dissidentvoice.org/2016/11/the-arctic-warms-up-for-trump/

    Reply
  72. Greg

     /  November 22, 2016

    Above freezing near the north pole. Nov 15th.
    Nothing to say.

    Reply
  73. Marcusblanc

     /  November 22, 2016

    Thanks for the updates RS, very useful.

    I saw this brief post, from someone called Spencer, on Realclimate. I really liked it, so I’m sharing.

    ‘In this fight we must not think of EITHER/OR (either the world will be saved or it will be doomed) but of HOW MUCH? … If a given effort keeps the temperature in 2100 lower by 0.1 degree, that’s worth doing, for it represents quite a lot of lives saved, species extermination delayed, etc. Every bit of effort counts.’

    Pretty succinct, I thought.

    Reply
    • Oh thank goodness. Someone finally gets what I’ve been trying to communicate all these years. We are battling for lives — each tenth of a degree.

      Reply
  74. Cate

     /  November 22, 2016

    The normally chipper and mainstream Weather Network presents a sobering report by meteorologist Scott Sutherland on climate change, focusing on last week’s study by Friedrich et on increasing climate sensitivity as warming progresses.

    “Game over? Will global warming be even worse than we think?…
    New research is revealing that Earth’s climate sensitivity may actually get worse as global temperatures continue to rise….
    “The only way out is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible,” Friedrich said.”

    https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/game-over-will-global-warming-be-even-worse-than-we-think/74756/

    Reply
    • The new paper appears to have woken a lot of people up. I’m glad to see it. But I hope that we can somehow overcome the vast degree of political inertia that is now in place across the globe. A small glimmer of light through the cracks:

      Both Canada and France have announced plans to phase out coal by 2030 —

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  November 22, 2016

        France is phasing out coal by 2023. That’s climate leadership.

        Canada is pushing it out to 2030, with great hoopla and fanfare, as if we are leading the world. And the province of Nova Scotia will be able to burn it longer than that. We really can do better. We should be leading, not laggarding.

        Reply
        • I really don’t understand why with the costs of offshore wind power plummeting NS isn’t falling over themselves to build an offshore wind industry, which I would think would be a direct transfer of skills for all the shipbuilding workers.

          I also don’t understand why SK is fighting so hard to keep its coal plants, and why it doesn’t take the $1.5B it’s spending on Carbon Capture and Sequestration and a) join the cap&trade agreement with ON & QC, b) build a giant pile of wind power with the $1.5B (also known as JOBS JOBS JOBS) c) close the coal plant the CCS is supposed to go on, d) collect a giant pile of carbon credits

          Maybe they just won’t let themselves figure out that wind power is super cheap now? I guess it’s like old school hockey or baseball general managers who refuse to accept that you need data analysts now to find players that are better bang for the buck, instead of going by grit and heart. (moneyball) Except in their case, it’s just their own teams that they’re wrecking, instead of a liveable climate for everyone else too.

        • mulga mumblebrain

           /  November 22, 2016

          Marcel, the great problem with Rightwingers is the Dunning-Kruger effect. They combine stupidity with unbounded arrogance, and a visceral hatred of those who they can sense are really smarter, better informed and morally superior to them. They are obsessed with WINNING, no matter what. And after decades of being egged on by the likes of Murdoch (in my opinion one of the most destructively evil individuals in history)in a ruthless Rightwing MSM brainwashing machine, they have simply grown ever more extreme.

  75. Cate

     /  November 22, 2016

    FishOutOfWater has started a new two-part thread over at the ASIF entitled

    Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Has Destabilized the Stratospheric Circulation

    http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1783.0.html
    http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1785.0.html

    Reply
  76. Vic

     /  November 22, 2016

    The Victorian Government will introduce legislation today to permanently ban fracking following what the Premier described as “one of the most amazing community campaigns” in Australian history.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-22/fracking-permanently-banned-in-victoria/8045264

    Reply
  77. Jay M

     /  November 22, 2016

    Located what might have been a DTL phone number in Portland, but disconnected. I think I need to set up a Twitter account and use that to query some connections. Will report back, but need to gird my loins to sign up for twitter. Best wishes all as the holidays descend upon us. Tropical storm in late Nov oh my.

    Reply
    • Hey guys. I really appreciate everyone trying to track him down. But please also tread lightly. We don’t want to upset any family members during a difficult time. That said, if we just communicate our concern and admiration for DT, then I think we will be OK.

      Best,

      –R

      Reply
  78. Hurricane Otto approaches Costa Rico, Panama (and its canal where a secret US spy vessel has broken down) and Nicaragua. Category one for now slipping toward land at 2 mph.

    Reply

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