Arctic Air Temperatures are Set to Hit 35 to 55 F Above Average by Thursday — Out of Season Sea Ice Melt Possible, Again

“It looks like a triple whammy – a warm ocean, a warm atmosphere, and a wind pattern all working against the ice in the Arctic.”NSIDC director Mark Serreze.

“Unfortunately, Arctic sea ice extent growth has once again slowed this week…”Zack Labe

“Huge surface air temperature anomalies over the Arctic this working week… over 25C warmer than average in parts.” — James Warner

****

This year, it’s a challenge to find a time when the Arctic Ocean has ever represented anything resembling normalcy. Record low sea ice extent values have occurred for more than 50 percent of days measured. And well above average temperatures have invaded the Arctic during winter, spring, and fall. With another huge wave of ridiculous warmth building up over eastern Siberia this week, the hits just keep on coming.

Major Warming Over Siberia, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas 

The present big warm air invasion has its origins in the Pacific Ocean. There, a large high pressure system over the Bering Sea is facing off with a strong low moving up across Kamchatka. Running between the two is a powerful south-to-north wind pattern.

image

(A major warm wind invasion of the Arctic on Thursday is originating in the subtropical Pacific. A ridge in the Jet Stream extending all the way to the North Pole is pulling this big bulge of warm air north. As a result, extreme temperature departures and out of season sea ice melt for the impacted zones are likely. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

As we can see in the image above, the flood of warm air has its origin around the 30 north latitude line. It flows directly over hundreds of miles of ocean, at times reaching a storm-force intensity near 70 mph. As it crosses into Siberia, the wind slows down. But it inexorably continues north, ever north — driven on by a serious pulse of atmospheric steam. By early Thursday, the leading edge of this warm air outburst from the Pacific side will have crossed the Pole and led to a flushing of Central Arctic air out into the Barents Sea and North Atlantic (you can view an animation of the predicted warm air pulse here).

This strong northward flood of warmth from the Pacific is running up under an extreme high amplitude wave in the Jet Stream that is bellowing out into the Arctic Ocean through the Bering and Chukchi seas. At its peak northward extent, the big Jet Stream wave is predicted to look something like this. And it is this severe contortion in the upper level wind pattern that has enabled this most recent extreme warm wind event to occur.

This pattern is now in the process of injecting above-freezing air temperatures into Eastern Siberia. By tomorrow, the warm air mass will encounter the coastal regions of the Chukchi and East Siberian seas. There, it will push temperatures as high as 2.5 C  (37 F) over zones that typically see readings in the -20s to -30s (Celsius). As a result, temperatures will range between 20 and 30 C (35 to 55 F) or more above average for many locations.

severe-arctic-warming-again

(Climate Reanalyzer has added a new color — white — for tracking extreme departures in temperature. In the positive anomaly column, we find departures hitting 30 C, or 54 F, above average for regions of East Siberia and the local Arctic Ocean.)

To be clear, these temperatures are highly abnormal. If a similar temperature departure happened in Gaithersburg, Maryland on December 8, it would produce 80 to 100 degree (F) readings. Of course, this anomaly is not happening in Gaithersburg. Due to a global warming related process called polar amplification in which the poles are more sensitive to alterations in rising greenhouse gas levels (due to fossil fuel and related emissions), extreme temperature anomalies tend to occur at the poles as rates of relative warming are 2-3 times faster in those regions. And the factors that we observe associated with this new Arctic warm wind event — powerful south-to-north meridional air flows coupled with extreme high amplitude waves in the Jet Stream — are also evidence of a number of weird new atmospheric circulation patterns that can tend to pop up as polar amplification intensifies.

Warm Winds May Cause Unprecedented Back-to-Back Fall Sea Ice Melt

The Pacific side of the Arctic has already been gaining heat ahead of the oncoming warm wind event over the past few days. And what we have seen, as a result, is a pretty severe loss of ice in the Chukchi Sea during early December. To be very clear, Arctic sea ice should be advancing at this time of year. But what we see in the image below (provided by A-Team over at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum) is advance followed by retreat as the warm wind event starts to ramp up.

chukchi-20-nov-06-dec-2016-side-by-side-ice-amsr2-conc-and-smos-thickness

(Ice refreeze in the Chukchi advances until it is rolled back by the most recent onrush of warm air flowing in from the Pacific. Image provided by A-Team at Neven’s Arctic Sea Ice Forum.)

Of course, the retreat seen above has occurred before the main force of warm southerly winds — due to hit the Arctic Ocean region by tomorrow. So the risks for continued losses in the Chukchi extend for at least the next few days. Losses there could be offset by large enough gains elsewhere to continue an overall seasonal freeze trend. But so far, with abnormal warmth also periodically building in over the near-Svalbard region and with Hudson Bay refreeze continuing to lag, that does not appear to be happening.

Looking at the larger monitors, we also find that, as happened during October and November, the pace of overall sea ice growth has stalled. According to JAXA, over the past 4 days, sea ice extent has only grown by 50,000 square kilometers. During a typical similar four day period for this time of year, growth would tend to average around 400,000 to 500,000 square kilometers. And with values at current record low levels, the inertial impetus for ice growth would be higher. That is, unless the climate state of the Arctic has radically changed — which appears to be the case.

arctic-sea-ice-extent

(According to JAXA, Arctic sea ice extent has again hit a plateau when it should be freezing — this time at around 10 million square kilometers. As sea ice follows that line, record lows are again deepening — hitting near 750,000 square kilometers below previous lows for the day in 2006. Considering the fact that another major warming event is building into the Arctic Ocean, this plateau could again tip into melt as happened during the middle of November. Image source: JAXA.)

During mid November, a period of unprecedented warming produced an almost unprecedented period of fall melt. A similar November melt occurred during 2013. But the amount of melt then was smaller. And that melt did not occur at a time when Arctic sea ice values were at new record lows — as they were throughout the entire month during 2016. Similarly, during October, abnormally warm conditions produced an odd re-freeze plateau similar to the one we are now experiencing.

Given current conditions, there’s a risk that we could see a December melt event following the November melt event. For the amount of heat hitting the Pacific side of the Arctic is predicted to fall far outside of normal temperature ranges. And, barring major refreeze on the Atlantic side, we are at a rather higher risk of seeing the present plateau in sea ice values carry on for a number of days.

Links:

The National Snow and Ice Data Center

Earth Nullschool

Climate Reanalyzer

The Arctic Sea Ice Forum

JAXA

Sea Ice Extent Hit Record Lows in November

Dr Jennifer Francis on Jet Stream Changes

Hat tip to John Allen

Hat tip to Neven

Hat tip to A-Team

Hat tip to Ryan in New England

Leave a comment

183 Comments

  1. climatehawk1

     /  December 7, 2016

    Tweet scheduled.

    Reply
  2. I hope Santa has pontoons on everything these days.

    SHERI

    Reply
    • Nancy

       /  December 7, 2016

      I knew Trump was evil, but he will go down in history as the worst president ever. I am sick about this appointment. He’s really sticking it to all of us who care about a liveable climate. I’d love to be a fly on the wall in Al Gore’s house this evening. He thought he had a good talk with Trump about climate change? I guess it went in one ear and out the other. Not that there is much in between his ears.

      Reply
      • Steven Blaisdell

         /  December 8, 2016

        “I knew Trump was evil, but he will go down in history as the worst president ever.”

        I don’t think “worst” will be the descriptive – catastrophic, ruinous, disastrous, predatory, amoral, sociopathic, nihilistic – these will be the terms used for Trump and his sycophantic gaggle of looters, pillagers, crazies, corporate parasites, and sociopaths. We are in a war not of our choosing, a war for humanity and the planet. The orcs have been kind enough to blatantly and explicitly define themselves and their intent – full bore, feudalistic religio-corporatism, and unfettered destruction of a livable biosphere. It’s no act – they really are fighting for everything they know and believe in. They just happen to be soulless predators, vultures, and vampires, no matter the expensive suits or seeming reasonableness or amiability or ability to manipulate public opinion. The forces of evil have well learned their lessons the past 100 years. The fight between the common good and rapacious narcissism has been with us from the origins of humanity; the stakes now, however, are not the collapse of a tribe or nation or limited ecosystem but the survival of all species, of an Earth amenable to more than decimated life as we know it.

        I know this sounds apocalyptic, and I know Robert wants to avoid this, but Trump and the deformed amorals he’s placing into positions of extreme power speak for themselves. The psychotic culture of lies, delusion, rage, fear, and blind aggression he’s dragging into the mainstream speaks for itself. This stuff is nothing new – humans have been doing this s**t since the beginning of the human. Unconstrained species always overrun their ecologies, and we’re no different. With humans, however, ultimately our only constraint is ourselves…or the collapse of Earth’s biosphere. An amoral, predatory, soulless narcissist is now the most powerful person in the world, leading a hyper-reactionary Congress aching to concretize statist-corporate feudalism, which will be legally wired in for generations by a Supreme Court worthy of antebellum comparisons. Trump cannot completely stop the worldwide shift to renewables, or single handedly undo the Paris accords, but the apparatchiks he’s bringing in can and will unleash as much raping, pillaging, and looting over the next four years as possible, and there’s effectively nothing hat can stop them. And they know this.

        We know how this works. We saw BushCo in action. We saw how this plays out. Now we have BushCo on steroids, with the seamless, explicit melding of government and corporate interests and openly autocratic control of this (via Twitter, no less). We are very close to the functioning of the Roman Empire, with government explicitly operating as a vehicle for and function of narrow tribal aggrandizement and personal enrichment. What effects this has on humanity as a whole, or the biosphere, is irrelevant; what matters is the unimpeded extraction, acquisition, privatization, and control of rapidly dwindling natural resources, the unregulated skim of ‘revenue streams,’ metastasized economic inequality, and a worldwide synthesis of like-minded predatory, reactionary elements. None of this is hyperbole – it’s all happening in plain sight. Trump isn’t the disease; he’s a symptom, a particularly virulent one. The disease is human nature, in all its dimension and glory. And right now, as it was eighty years ago, the basest aspects of the human are ascendant. Whether we constrain ourselves, or whether Earth does it for us, is the question. In the meantime, TrumpCo can and will advance as much and as fast as possible the agenda of the privileged (extremely) few over the deserving many. The pigs are at the trough, and if you’ve ever seen pigs at a trough you know what I mean. Not pretty, not pretty at all.

        Reply
        • couldn’t agree more steven. “Unconstrained species always overrun their ecologies, and we’re no different.” As a friend always tells me, we’re just like bacteria in a petri dish with a food source. We’ll gobble bit up until there’s nothing left and the population crashes. And we humans are doing it writ large with 7.4 billion people on the planet and 227,000 net humans a day being born. No one ever wants to discuss human overpopulation, even on the “left.” But I will, and I see over 2 billion more humans on Earth just since I was born in the mid 1980s!

          You give to much credit to Trump cronies when comparing them to pigs. Pigs are a sociable, friendly and intelligent species when not shoved into factory farms. Don’t eat them! or other animal products

        • *every bit up

      • “I knew Trump was evil, but he will go down in history as the worst president ever.”

        Colbert introduced him on his show last year as “the last president” of the US.

        Reply
      • mulga mumblebrain

         /  December 8, 2016

        Steven, I agree, and believe me, here in Australia the same orcs are in complete control, too. The pretend Prime Minister, Turnbull, a pathetic marionette controlled by the hard Right, has reneged on all the positions he held only a few years ago. He is now utterly opposed to renewable energy, and to any pricing of emissions WHATSOEVER. No MSM presstitute has dared ask the obvious question, as to whether he has now become a climate destabilisation denialist as well. This would then, of course, invite further questions as to just when he became a denialist, why and who convinced him to change his mind.
        Denialism has been very strong on the Right here since 1996 and the election of John Howard who was a firm denialist, imagining climate science a ‘Communist’ plot to destroy capitalism, a position he apparently still holds. We had a chance in 2007 when Rudd from Labor was elected, declaring climate destabilisation a ‘moral’ imperative, then, once the Murdoch cancer turned on him for it, he turned to water, and capitulated. The next PM Gillard brought in a carbon tax, but that was greeted by a MSM campaign, led by the Murdoch cancer, of unprecedented viciousness and ferocity, and delivered power to Abbott, a moron, ignoramus and fanatic denialist.
        If I had to place the blame for this intellectual, moral and spiritual fiasco and debacle anywhere I’d say that it lies with Rupert Murdoch and his Evil Empire of lies, misrepresentation, vilification and hypocrisy. I rather imagine that Murdoch, as he nears death, just doesn’t care what happens after his demise. I doubt that he is so stupid as to believe the denialist tosh that his apparatus churns out every day, so he is destroying Life on Earth for some deliberate motivation. I think that, if we do survive, that we really must do something about those Evil who dwell among us, something other than putting them in control of politics, the MSM and business, that is. At least the very worst of the poison does seem to be confined to the Anglosphere, so progress can yet be hoped for from the non morally insane world, while (and if) we return to some sort of human decency.

        Reply
    • This is a worst case scenario from a US National Policy standpoint. There’s not much else that can be said other than that the people doing this are insane. They will hurt everyone. Including themselves.

      Reply
      • Hatrack

         /  December 7, 2016

        They think their money will protect them. It might, for a little while. After that, it won’t.

        Reply
        • All the money and technology in the world can’t keep them safe from this. There is no godlike state of immunity. It’s the same as the fake news that’s purveyed everywhere. The liars have perpetrated the biggest lie of all on themselves.

    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  December 8, 2016

      Do you remember James Gaius Watt? History repeating, first as tragedy then as farce. The Final Trump (north English slang for fart) will soon be heard.

      Reply
  3. December 2016 Captain Cook could have gone further North than in August 1778.
    “After entering the Bering Sea on 11th August 1778, Cook crossed the Arctic Circle and went as far north as latitude 70 degrees 41’ North before being forced back by the pack ice”. http://www.captcook-ne.co.uk/ccne/timeline/voyage3.htm
    He was stopped by “ice which was as compact as a Wall and seemed to be ten or twelve feet high at least” [from Cook’s journal].
    http://psc.apl.uw.edu/arctic-ambitions-captain-cook-and-the-northwest-passage/

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  December 8, 2016

      A remarkable change to one of the largest features and ecosystems on the planet. Where Cook and his men encountered walruses on the pack ice, where now they would see only open ocean.

      “After entering the Bering Sea on 11th August 1778, Cook crossed the Arctic Circle and went as far north as latitude 70 degrees 41’ North before being forced back by the pack ice off Icy Cape, Alaska. On the ice all around the ships were large numbers of walruses. About a dozen of these huge animals were killed to replenish the supplies of fresh meat and to provide oil for the lamps.”

      Reply
  4. Hatrack

     /  December 7, 2016

    Cross-posted to Democratic Underground.

    Reply
  5. Absolutely sickening, Robert. But thanks for keeping this blog unfake.

    Reply
  6. Arctic blast also projected into the US next week. Cold air source Siberia. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/12/07/polar-vortex-unleashed-severe-cold-snap-likely-in-u-s-next-week/?utm_term=.f818431183b0&wpisrc=nl_evening&wpmm=1
    not sure how all this fits together, but suggests some weather stability has been lost.

    Reply
    • In the wake of the warm air pulse, colder air from the Siberian land mass is set to leap across the Arctic and into Canada. Oddly enough, the effect of this is moreso to drive colder Canadian air into the US. Northern Canada will still be warmer than average.

      Reply
  7. Most of Greenland Melted In the Recent Past, Study Finds

    “This means the Greenland ice sheet is really much less stable and more dynamic than we thought,” Schaefer said.

    “I would say that the leading hypothesis [now] is that not too much warming is required to remove much or most of Greenland’s ice to expose rock at GISP2,” study co-author Richard Alley told Gizmodo in an email.

    “I think it’s unquestionably one of the most important papers on Greenland to come out in a long time,” Eric Steig, a climate scientist at the University of Washington

    http://gizmodo.com/the-greenland-ice-sheet-may-be-far-less-stable-than-we-1789771526

    Reply
  8. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    Autumn 2016: Warmest in U.S. Weather History
    By: Bob Henson , 6:10 PM GMT on December 07, 2016

    Link

    Reply
  9. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    RS – OT
    A tech item with the site . I wish you would insert the code that opens links in a new window, so we don’t leave the page, when we click on a link.

    On another off topic item , I searched the obits in Portland for DTL today. I came up empty.

    Reply
    • Thanks for the feedback, Bob. I’ll see what I can do about that in the settings. Has this been the case since you’ve been on the site?

      As for DT, I think he’s just resting and recovering. He did a lot of work here and, in my view, the rest is well deserved. It’s tough information and we’ve been through a number of rough patches recently. Not everyone can be as hardy as the guy with the Colorado handle 😉

      Reply
    • Actually, Bob, I think that has to do with your own browser settings.

      Reply
    • John S

       /  December 8, 2016

      CB, in case you don’t already know, manual workaround is hold ctrl key down when you click, link will open in new window.

      Reply
      • Paul PNW

         /  December 8, 2016

        Also right mouse click > open in new tab.

        Reply
      • utoutback

         /  December 8, 2016

        CB –
        I use Firefox and have RS as a pin tab, with this the link automatically opens as a new window.

        Reply
  10. Griffin

     /  December 8, 2016

    These posts. One after another. Any one of them is stomach churning to read. The continuous stream is simply stunning. You are the only one who is telling this story as it unfolds Robert. Stay strong!

    Reply
    • Thanks for the kind words, Griff. The strength ebbs and flows. But the will to keep writing, to keep trying to do something about this, that is what remains.

      Reply
    • Cate

       /  December 8, 2016

      Griff, agreed, 110% The Scribbler blows the rest out of the water.

      RS, you quite simply rock. Thank you for doing this amazing work. 🙂

      Reply
  11. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    I feel like Travis at the Alamo. And like him, I have know way of knowing if Houston will win at San Jacinto.

    Reply
    • Mark in OZ

       /  December 8, 2016

      Am appreciating the references and battle analogies of the Alamo and San Jacinto CB! ( Kleberg Cty, State 77,and the Rio Grande Valley old stompin’ grounds). Got me thinking how we can expect to see again another group of seemingly besieged and defeated folk rally and push back with an overwhelming vengeance not expected by the ‘aggressors’.

      Took 13 days of siege before the Alamo ‘fell’ along with Austin, Travis and Crockett, yet SJ was ‘over’ in 18 minutes with Santa Ana astonished. I expect a climactic ‘Alamo’ to serve as a rallying call for support that many will heed.
      Many!

      Reply
      • Our Alamo here in the US is when Trump takes power and starts working with climate change deniers in Congress to try to undo pretty much every good think that Obama did. I think they’ll try for a big tax cut first. That’s always republicans’ priority — big tax cut for the rich. So I think we need to work on that. Maybe try to get a carbon tax as part of that deal. There are some republicans who’ve been amenable to that possibility. And negotiations over that could take some time. If republicans aren’t amenable, I think we should just full-on filibuster everything. Draw everything out to prevent as much bad policy as possible from being implemented.

        Nancy Pelosi or Van Hollen could well be Travis given their current position.

        Reply
        • Mark in OZ

           /  December 8, 2016

          Thanks Robert!
          Many parallels with other epic struggle periods in US history–certainly the Civil War.
          I anticipate great states people and the citizens to arise to the challenge.
          I see Chris Van Hollen here as a ‘Sam Houston’ type who can negotiate / lead successfully.
          Was Houston that echoed Matthew12:25 with “a nation divided against itself cannot stand”. Abe Lincoln used this powerful phrase years later.

          And, like Van Hollen of present day, Houston hailed from VA; close to the ‘power’ and aware of how things get done. Now, if Chris could get that Healthy Climate and Family Security Act over the line, momentum will build rapidly.

          https://vanhollen.org/

          Note: I’m with Chris!
          ATB!

  12. pccp82

     /  December 8, 2016

    its interesting to contrast the ‘Siberian Express’ of 1983 (http://www.nytimes.com/1984/01/21/us/around-nation-siberian-express-hits-far-south-florida-associated-press.html) with whats about to come.

    That cold blast brought temps below 0 to Nashville Tenn. I don’t quite think we will get there.

    Reply
  13. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    “This rock is probably the most unique terrestrial rock sample ever,” Schaefer said. “It’s as precious as the moon rock that was retrieved in the 1970s.”

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  December 8, 2016

      Rocks never lie, it is our understanding of them that gave us the modern world.

      Thanks for this, TDG.

      Reply
  14. Andy_in_SD

     /  December 8, 2016

    The truly unfortunate thing is when that Canadian cold air invades the lower 48. It will reaffirm those in denial as what occurs locally on a select day (today it is cold, thus GW is false, last month and next month don’t count). If it finds DC, perhaps we may see Senator Snowball show his brilliant acumen again with another sad parlor trick. His children and grandchildren will spit on his grave one day for killing their future for a fist full of dollars.

    Denial Logic Debunked
    ==================

    Remember, when I step out of my house and look left and right, the road is flat, thus the world is not round by your logic!

    It has been globally hotter in the past before humans, and thus humans don’t cause any climate shifts you say? By that logic forest fires have occurred before humans as well, therefore humans never cause forest fires.

    You say the planet stopped warming? Then please explain what makes glaciers and the ice cap smaller, you know that ice turning into water thing. I always thought increasing temperature caused ice to turn into water, but you know something far beyond that, oh brilliant one. Please enlighten us.

    The world will survive you say? I completely agree with you, 100%. However, civilization as we know it will not, populations will not, you children may not, your grandchildren will probably not, your great grandchildren will probably not exist, your house will not, your town…nope, your country…not. And your legacy as a good person who took care of their own, who made the right decisions and didn’t sell the future for fictional fiat currency? No way….you will be reviled, despised and will go down in whatever history remains as something akin to Adolf Hitler, but with even less of a social conscience.

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  December 8, 2016

      Vent, vent, vent.

      Reply
    • Steven Blaisdell

       /  December 8, 2016

      Very nice. I will be ‘borrowing’ much of this in the future.

      Reply
      • So apt. Frightening how many people are embracing ridiculous ‘arguments’ and close all their senses to blindingly obvious changes to justify their unwillingness to see or accept the bigger picture.

        Reply
        • mulga mumblebrain

           /  December 8, 2016

          Sammy, as we can see, lumpen Rightwingers or ‘conservatives’ or whatever you call them, are primarily from the sub-median group in the intelligence distribution. They are so dumb as not to be able properly to appreciate their stupidity, but so touchingly arrogant as to believe themselves ‘smart’, particularly in their own milieu. It’s the Dunning-Kruger Effect. The denialist industry cleverly picked on the tactic of painting climate science as ‘Left’, immediately provoking a Pavlovian reaction in the ‘conservatives’. After that, and with constant Rightwing MSM brainwashing, argument was superfluous. Rightists are immensely stubborn, their minds recoiling from the idea that they might ever be mistaken, which would affront their perfectly formed egotism. As Keynes said, ‘When the facts change, I change my mind’. As to his next question, ‘What do you do, sir’?’, the answer for the Rightist is either, ‘I ignore the facts’, or ‘I change the facts’, but I NEVER change my mind, because I am so really, truly, madly, deeply, clever. It’s fascinating to watch, particularly in conversation-like arguing with a brick.

      • DJ

         /  December 8, 2016

        LOL. I’ll have to remember that one when I’m talking to skeptics.

        Reply
    • So very well said, Andy. I wish I could copy and post all your wonderful comments to my twitter feed. Maybe I’ll feature one on my Facebook page every day. Now there’s an idea…

      Reply
    • Of course, the related cool air outbreak is primarily due to a strong Pacific ridge producing a deep trough over the Central US. Wavy Jet Streams are an upshot of Arctic warming. So you get these cool zones interspersed by very warm zones. And to be clear, the current cool air outbreak isn’t really that far out of the ordinary on the cool side. It’s more closer to normal than anything else — though some regions will see -20 C below average temperatures.

      The thing to consider is the fact that parts of the Arctic are hitting +30 C or higher above average and that the global average is in the range of +1 C above 1880s. And to this point, the global average is trending higher rapidly.

      One final point and I’m done. If you think 1 C of global temperature change isn’t a big deal, then consider this. It took only about 150 years for the Earth to warm by 1 C. And about 60 percent of that warming occurred in the last 40 years. At the end of the last ice age it took 10,000 years for the Earth, on average, to warm by 4 C.

      What can we take from these facts? First, the Earth is currently warming up about 40 times faster than at the end of the last ice age. Second, we’ve already warmed the world by 1/4 the total warming since the end of the last ice age. Third, warming so much so soon is producing profound geophysical changes to the Earth environment and climate system. Fourth, warming by 2-7 C by the end of this Century would produce effects ranging from harmful to absolutely catastrophic. Fifth, by responding rapidly to climate change we can limit impacts to merely harmful. Sixth, if we fail to respond and keep burning fossil fuels, everything, including human beings, is basically screwed. The Earth will remain, sure, but with a whole heck of a lot less life aboard.

      So if you voted in Trump who is now promoting a cadre of climate change deniers and fossil fuel industry cheerleaders into his cabinet, you only have yourself to blame for what’s coming. But you can rest assured that there are many of us who will fight for your future and your children’s future despite the ridiculous up-hill battle you’ve given us.

      Reply
  15. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    The Ghost Ship fire ……………… Rents all over the region are rising. The boom is driving every low wage earner out, and artists to ban together trying to stay. Their only fault was they were trying to sweep the ocean back with a broom.

    Reply
  16. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    You know when I began this “Get ready little lady” campaign I had know idea I would live to see it. Now it’s like Greenland. The models are clearly wrong.

    We are having Hell for breakfast.

    Reply
    • Steven Blaisdell

       /  December 8, 2016

      “The models are clearly wrong.”
      Far too conservative, which a narrative analysis of climate research over the past fifteen years would show – at some point, the overwhelming inductive evidence of “faster and at greater magnitude” speaks surer and long before measured evidence.

      Reply
  17. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    Reply
  18. Greg

     /  December 8, 2016

    Robert, you rock. Can barely keep up. Spent last weekend at Greenbank in West Virginia with the Boy Scouts for their astronomy merit badge. Had the use of an older 40 foot antennae. Pointed it randomly into space and ended up picking up the hydrogen signature from a complex 30,000 light years away from our galaxy heading towards us at roughly 100 miles/second. A beautiful red shift showed on a graph we plotted on an old printer. The boys had to do everything manually on this older research equipment. 12 year olds caught a glimpse of the universe from 30,000 years ago crashing towards us. Mind blowing and it was plain to see and figure out from basic science and some simple equations. Yet, we live among those who believe we walked with dinosaurs. And some of them are coming to rule our country. I just can’t wrap my head around that one. Too complex to understand.

    Reply
    • What a great story, Greg. You’ve given those kids a wonderful gift. When you tell this story, I’m there in my mind as a 12 year old, I’m right there with them sharing in all that wonder and learning. The world is so large. There is so much to know. So much to discover. So many things that we do not yet understand.

      Our eyes are now just barely able to pierce the great darkness. Sad to say that we have leaders who are, even now, working to invite it back. These kids were going to face a tough road even if we did all we could to help them. And republicans and Trump are basically planning to do the opposite.

      Reply
  19. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    All of this old 60’s – 70’s music saw the future. Life in the Fast Lane. And this…….

    Reply
  20. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    You were miserable as child , and your even worst as a man.

    Reply
  21. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    The Trump voter was forecast by the The Amazing Rhythm Aces.

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  December 8, 2016

      Got it. Thanks. A little slow. Time to let go and drift into sweet slumber. Out.

      Reply
  22. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    Greg ……………….

    As an old fossil , I think my world was the best. And like Travis at the Alamo , I have know idea what is coming.

    Reply
  23. DJ

     /  December 8, 2016

    Been watching videos about sea-level rise on youtube, particularly a couple of short documentaries about what Florida is doing to try and deal with the problem. They do seem to be taking it seriously as an issue (protestations of their governor aside), have acknowledged the (obvious/undeniable, water in-the-streets-at-high-tide) problem and are planning steps to deal with it.

    But it reminds me of when I was a kid, building sand castles on the beach and trying to save them from the encroaching tide – at some point you can’t beat the water, it just keeps rising. It seems like such an obviously doomed effort…

    Watched a longer documentary by Natural Geographic that talked about the inevitable 150 foot + rise over the next couple of hundred years as CO2 rises to +1000ppm. Which begs the question ‘at +7C temperatures, do you think sea level will be our biggest problem?’ Such narrow focus.

    Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  December 8, 2016

      DJ, at seven degrees Celsius there will be none of us left to worry about the sea-level. The Potsdam Institute calculated that four degrees Celsius rise in global average temperatures reduces the Earth’s ‘carrying capacity’ to one billion humans, Seven degrees-kaput!

      Reply
    • So the cities are trying to respond to the problem of sea level rise by raising roads and building sea walls. For Miami, this is a 400 million dollar investment today. For the future, for Miami, the city probably can’t solve the problem of sea level rise by spending money. The city has a lifespan of 20-30 years under rapid sea level rise, 100 years under moderate sea level rise.

      At the state level, Florida is completely ignoring the problem. Governor Scott is a miserable failure when it comes to climate change. How can you deal with a problem that you deny is even there?

      As for ‘is sea level rise the worst problem at 7 C warming?’ Well, 7 C warming implies a 220 to 250 foot sea level rise long term. For 1 billion people who lost their homes as that happened, it’s a pretty key issue. For the thousands of cities wiped out, it’s a pretty key issue. For the scores of nuclear power stations that will need to be moved and have their lands cleaned up, it’s a pretty big issue. For the entire states and nations who will be wiped off the map, it’s a pretty big issue.

      Problem is, it’s one of many very big issues at 7 C warming. The world is a hot, toxic, inhospitable place with far less land mass, an unlivable equatorial zone, a desertified middle latitude zone, and poles that are undergoing ridiculous geophysical changes. The oceans kill more advanced life than they sustain. And at 7 C the rainfall pattern pretty much everywhere is shifting strongly toward drying. Storms happen less often. But when they do, they are ridiculous brutes. And the very stormy transition that could happen in the 1.5-3 C range as the ice sheets go down has the potential to wreck more than we can now imagine at this time.

      Most civilizations won’t survive a rapid warming to 7 C over this Century. Those that do will not resemble any present form. And most of the ability to survive hinges on moving rapidly toward more sustainable practices. If nations do not do this, then they basically won’t survive. If no nation does this, then no nation will survive. From the standpoint of civilization at this time, building in mitigation and resiliency and sustainability is a must-have.

      Reply
      • DJ

         /  December 8, 2016

        Yeah, my main point was that at 7C warming, the assumption (implicit in the documentary) that sea level rise would be our main problem is ridiculous. I see this all the time – little ‘news clips’ or ‘analysis’ that focus on one dimension of climate change and then extrapolate from that narrow view a scenario that either it ‘will be a good thing’, or ‘might be a problem but will be manageable’ – eg, some of these naive assumptions that as the earth warms, arable land will just shift further north, northern Canada and Russia will seamlessly replace more southern latitudes as primary farming zones. Ridiculous? Yes, but this was being stated not as a ‘possible scenario’ but more or less as a ‘given’ by a university professor (of economics, I believe) on a radio program supposedly discussing the implications of global warming.

        Reply
      • DJ

         /  December 8, 2016

        On the National Geographic documentary they were talking about the pumping stations and pipes that were being installed (and apparently not just in Miami Beach and Miami) that they felt would be able to deal with 20 years of sea level rise, but would then be replaced by larger pumps to deal with the next 20 years. So ok, if all goes according to plan (questionable) then 40 years. Then what? This is what I mean about being like trying to defend a sand castle against the tide.

        Reply
  24. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    This entire idea of get ready little lady, is not to scare, but to “get ready”.

    Now back to the time when all didn’t give a shit about the EPA ………….

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  December 8, 2016

      We blew a the gasket on the Grape Vine. And 80 dollars in repair.

      Now there’s a metaphor, I can bite into.

      Reply
  25. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    I ran the Grape Vine, North , and South I loved it , and hated it.

    Going North I had 80,000 lbs. Going South I was empty. It’s 6 lanes of madness either way.

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  December 8, 2016

      Hot Rod Lincoln – Commander Cody (Studio)

      Reply
      • coloradobob

         /  December 8, 2016

        My pappy said son , your going to drive to drinkin’ . If don’t stop drivin’ that hot rod Lincoln.

        Reply
  26. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    Now back to our grim facts.

    Everyone speak-up with fresh ideas. Because we are up to our ass in alligators.

    Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  December 8, 2016

      Bob, down (geographically and from the point of view of moral sanity) here, we’re up to our arse in saltwater crocs, and that ain’t comfortable. How do societies end up ruled by beetroot faced, corpulent, walking advertisements for prospective eugenic excision? Our Federal regime, denialist and viciously opposed to renewables, is a constant cavalcade of cretinism, each dullard more imbecilic than the one the cavorted before,yet they are in charge. We came down out of the trees, across the savannah, out of Africa, for this? Are we really meant to still believe that Bach, Shakespeare and Dostoevsky were the same species as Trump and Barnaby Joyce? It defies belief.

      Reply
    • George W. Hayduke

       /  December 8, 2016

      Love your drain the swamp reference there Bob!

      Reply
  27. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    Reply
  28. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    Now back to our grim work –

    Reply
  29. Hey everyone, it has been below freezing in the daytime for a number of days now, and single digits/teens at night. Therefore there is nothing to worry about! See how easy that is!

    Now can I have a large bag of money for telling ‘truthiness’ or do I have to have stock in Exxon? Who do I give my mailing address to?

    Today’s story:

    I was hanging my gear in a local market this evening when the woman behind the register and I started talking about CO2 levels etc etc. A customer interjected that anybody who thinks the Pleistocene Era 3.5 million years ago existed is an idiot because the universe is only 5,000 years old. He looked at me and literally said “You’re stupid.” I smilingly explained to him that I pray to Zeus because he is much older and obviously far more experienced and powerful than his Hebrew god and wouldn’t have any problem with science questions. He looked confused, couldn’t think of any answer at all and I guess he left kinda mad. The woman cashier started shrieking laughter after he went out the door. Sometimes you just have to throw the mud back…

    But honestly, how the hell can reality get through that kind of totally committed deliberate blindness when more people in this country believe in fairies and angels than science???

    Andy in my hometown: been saying don’t have kids for years to younger people who have asked me (those I talk climate with). I’ve always leaned more towards the ‘holy crap it’s coming faster than anybody thought’ side of this argument. Yeah, that’s been my take and I admit I’m more pessimistic that most. But I didn’t; raised 3 of somebody else’s kids instead…

    DJ: Built a lot of sand castles being raised on the beach. The ocean always wins.

    CB: Hey, let AndyinSD vent! You get to all the time with that music you post which is definitely some good venting!!! I was listening to Leon Russel last night on the turntable. 😉

    Last thought: Just started spitting snow and I for one am so glad global warming is all over. Can I make a snowball now? And where’s that bag of money???

    Reply
    • Sheri

       /  December 8, 2016

      Rolling on the floor with the woman at the register…Zeus. wonderful, seal,😅😄😃😂
      Sheri

      Reply
    • Eric Thurston

       /  December 8, 2016

      Always remember that 100 is the mean IQ of humans. The bar is pretty low.

      Reply
  30. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    I can’t believe how much we have lost this year, I can’t believe how powerless I am to stop it.

    I can’t believe this new world.

    Reply
  31. Shoot… sorry to spoil the mood:

    Hot spots in the ocean close to Svalbard:

    https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/11/29/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-32.92,82.97,2048/loc=32.684,75.928

    Sea surface temperature anomalies up to 11.3 degrees C – 20 degrees F.

    Don’t think any sea ice will be forming on these hot spots any time soon.

    Reply
  32. Bert Jansch – Paper Houses:

    Reply
    • Raul M

       /  December 8, 2016

      There is the accepted.
      To accept another’s situation or predicament. May I suggest two variations of such. One of acceptance that it is someone else’s and two how would I do.
      Now I know that I live away from high tide. Two, when residential living in a tide zone, would I want more help than someone explaining that I am living in a tide zone. If we are going to talk to each other, shouldn’t we just get along. Understanding that living there isn’t the shocking thing might be a start of conversation. Also as the sewer system acts as a path for saltwater intrusion to the well fields, is it everyone’s interest to plug those paths till better ways become.

      Reply
  33. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    Leland Palmer –

    Life is a funny ole’ dog.

    Reply
  34. Bert Jansch – Born and Bred in Old Ireland

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  December 8, 2016

      I have no idea what this means.

      Reply
      • It means that cutting and pasting a YouTube link is beyond my technical capabilities. How did we get into this mess where we have to depend on …yuck…technology to save us?

        Reply
  35. Abel Adamski

     /  December 8, 2016

    Interesting one on Atlantic ocean and climate
    https://theconversation.com/what-500-year-old-clams-can-tell-us-about-climate-change-69926

    Over the last 1,000 years the ocean preceeded the surface air temperature, up until the 1800’s when it reversed

    From the author in the comments

    “Post 1800 the situation appears to have reversed with air temperatures leading marine temperatures. This is described earlier in the article (paragraph 6), the hypothesis being that rapid changes in air temperatures caused by greenhouse warming has masked the marine influence on the atmosphere.”

    Reply
  36. Uh, paste the link, you big dummy (me)

    Let’s try that again:

    Reply
    • Oh, apparently it’s posting a whole playlist. This is song 1 of 200. What a guitar player!

      Some friends of mine have a 3 year old granddaughter that appears to be at least as skilled as I am on the IPhone, sorry.

      Reply
  37. And yet again – It’s an accidental triple play:

    Reply
  38. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    Leland Palmer –

    We all swim in a sea of fear. Each of us tries to make sense. The old world is dead, the new world is crazy as three bucks on a bill.

    Now, we must come together.

    Reply
    • Sounds good, Bob.

      Nature (and computers) make fools of us all.

      We need to huddle together in one amorphous semi-intelligent mass, to try to save what may be, for all we know, the only semi-intelligent life in the universe. Damn straight.

      Reply
  39. Damn, don’t know what’s wrong with that link!
    One more time:

    Reply
  40. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    Oh shit, Pearl Harbor day .and the EPA are bombed together.

    Reply
  41. Syd Bridges

     /  December 8, 2016

    I lost Internet for two days and Robert has two new and fascinating posts awaiting me when I regained connectivity. Or should I say, two new chapters in the surreal horror story? Unfortunately, my brain is not yet addled enough that I can convince myself that I am not staring a stark and grim reality in the face.

    The collapse of the cryosphere is now in full swing, and it is following on logically from the reckless pollution that we have caused over the last two centuries. However, I think we can exculpate the early pioneers of the Industrial Revolution as they had no way of foreseeing the consequences of increased GHG emissions. They did not know that such gases existed. After the work of Arrhenius, however, it became clear that there were consequences, though they seemed very distant at the time. But Arrhenius’ 3000 year doubling of atmospheric CO2 depended on burning around .5 Gtons of carbon a year. With only 3 percent growth that rises to 17 Gtos in the 120 years since he published. We are somewhat below that figure but even at 10 Gtons and rising, we will not take long to reach that doubling. Since the late 1970s, it has been obvious to those who chose to look, that the consequences were coming. Instead of facing up to this reality, many chose magical thinking as a more pallatable alternative, encouraged by those who knew what was coming, but wanted to extract the last cent of profit from resources that they knew would cause disaster later on. Unfortunately, the penalty for this flight into fantasy will be even worse outcomes in the future, with the collapse of the biosphere, agriculture, and the human population.

    Keep telling the truth, Robert. There will soon come a time when the consequences will be all too plain for everyone to see. Hopefully, those like yousdelf who warned that we were headed to disaster will then be heeded. Never will level heads have been such in demand.

    Reply
    • Thanks for the kind words, Syd. I’ve been lucky to have you and so many other good hearts here with me through this. I think everyone here can play a part in helping to prevent harm.

      Reply
  42. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    Leland Palmer –

    I am a old fool who does not care if I die in the next second. I am a long time student of history. . Watch for Trump to claim new powers, Hitler burnt the Reichstag. Trump will not wait.

    Reply
    • Some scary parallels, that’s for sure. Some of these guys in his cabinet look reminiscent of Hitler’s gang of thugs.

      What to get the man that has everything?

      The fate of the world, both houses of Congress, and the Supreme Court. Oh, and nuclear weapons.

      Reply
      • …and a brain. Be sure to include the brain in the package. Otherwise the insurance on the package could be trillions and trillions of dollars.

        Reply
  43. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    One more time –

    Hell comes to breakfast.

    Reply
  44. coloradobob

     /  December 8, 2016

    I do think that nature, who bats last, is about beat Mr. Trump like a government mule.

    Reply
  45. redskylite

     /  December 8, 2016

    Thanks for another great and informative narrative on the sea ice melt behaviour in the Arctic, in response to the abnormal winter temperatures, is it the start of another new normal ?, only time will tell, certainly the spiral tightens and right out of season. Thanks for some great informative contribution posts and wonderful music on the Scribes blogspace tonight.

    The Conversation (Dec 8th 2016):Climate shenanigans at the ends of the Earth: why has sea ice gone haywire?

    “Global average temperatures, and “global warming”, often give the impression of a gradual change in Earth’s climate occurring uniformly across the planet. This is far from the truth – particularly at the ends of the Earth. The Arctic and Antarctic are behaving very differently from the global picture.

    One particular polar change that has caught the attention of scientists and the media this year has been the state of sea ice. The seasonal growth and decay of sea ice over the Arctic and Southern oceans is one of the most visible changes on Earth.

    But in the past few months its seasonal progression has stalled, plunging Earth’s sea ice cover off the charts to the lowest levels on record for November.”

    http://theconversation.com/climate-shenanigans-at-the-ends-of-the-earth-why-has-sea-ice-gone-haywire-69485

    Reply
    • redskylite

       /  December 8, 2016

      Jah would never give the power to a baldhead
      Run come crucify the Dread.

      Time alone – oh, time will tell:
      Think you’re in heaven, but ya living in hell;
      Think you’re in heaven, but ya living in hell;
      Think you’re in heaven, but ya living in hell.
      Time alone – oh, time will tell:
      Think you’re in heaven, but ya living in hell.

      Reply
  46. redskylite

     /  December 8, 2016

    Sea-level expert John Church resurfaces at University of NSW amid new warning signs from Greenland.

    John Church, a leading climate change researcher sacked by CSIRO, has secured a new platform for his work at the University of NSW.

    Dr Church, a fellow of the Australian Academy of Science with more than 150 peer-reviewed articles, will take up the post as a professor in the university’s Climate Change Research Centre in January.

    “John Church is easily Australia’s most credentialled expert on sea-level rise,” Matthew England, the centre’s deputy director, told Fairfax Media. “For a while we risked losing his formidable expertise here in Australia.”

    Dr Church was one of the most prominent researchers let go at CSIRO during a bid to slash climate monitoring and modelling jobs. Following an outcry at home and abroad, though, most staff originally earmarked for the axe were spared.

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/sealevel-expert-john-church-resurfaces-at-university-of-nsw-amid-new-warning-signs-from-greenland-20161207-gt5qje.html

    Reply
  47. Abel Adamski

     /  December 8, 2016

    Just an observation from down under.
    Sec Kerry recently made that hurried trip to Antarctica – all secretive. On the way back called in on an unplanned or expected visit to the NZ PM, who has since resigned to spend more time with his family (and he was successful and popular).
    Then we have our lunatic comedy show in our government where the PM and his happy clapper Treasurer announce a policy to regulate Electric Power generation CO2 emissions which all the experts and The Power industry themselves want, only to backflip and take it off the table as their backbench revolted calling it a form of carbon tax.

    Why wasn’t the environment minister making the announcement, dear Josh is on a hurried jaunt to Antarctica

    Reply
    • Robert In New Orleans

       /  December 8, 2016

      The trip to Antarctica by Sec. Kerry I find to be very interesting as the conventional wisdom would suggest that there are other more pressing issues (Syria, North Korea, China, Russia, Iran & the EU) in the world right now that would be more demanding of his limited time and energy while in office.

      Unless the melt situation in Antarctica has deteriorated to the extent that he had to see it himself.

      Part of me would like to know what he saw and what he was told by the scientists. The other part of me dreads the knowledge of whats to come.

      This begs the question to all.

      Do you believe that if the government would tell the general public the truth about abrupt climate change if the situation dramatically changed for the worse?

      Reply
      • Witchee

         /  December 8, 2016

        Probably not, if it were sufficiently bad- they would fear panic. Not all would keep it secret though- being believed would be another thing. Aren’t climate scientists already telling us that the situation is dire?

        Reply
        • I don’t think the Kerry visit was particularly secret. It was covered broadly. And it’s pretty clear that Kerry was concerned about the state of Antarctica’s glaciers. In addition, both NASA and scientists like Rignot have been quite clear that glacial stability in the region is deteriorating.

      • mulga mumblebrain

         /  December 8, 2016

        Robert, even if the moribund Obama regime did tell the public the truth, the Trump aroma would just deny it all, and be joined by the Western MSM led by the Murdoch cancer. And even if they didn’t bother, where would the pressure on Trump to do anything come from. His brain-dead and thoroughly conned followers don’t believe in science, hating ‘smart-arses’, ‘know-it-alls’ and ‘experts’ with the jealous fury of the congenitally dumb, so they’ll just screech abuse.

        Reply
    • Well, John Kerry is the Chairman of the Arctic Council. So, if he is interested in Antarctica, that may be natural.

      The internal New Zealand politics seems very interesting, and possibly connected to the trip – or not. I know nothing whatsoever about New Zealand politics.

      John Kerry also seems to do what the Rockefeller / Council on Foreign Relations group wants, a lot. So, it may be possible that he is setting up New Zealand as a refuge from global warming for the rich, and arranging for political leadership to do that – just a random speculation, with absolutely no evidence supporting it. Antarctic may end up as the only livable place on the planet, if we have a methane catastrophe, and New Zealand is the jumping off point for Antarctica, almost always.

      If that is the case, that he is setting up New Zealand as a hiding hole for the super rich, New Zealand would need to be defended by nuclear weapons from Asian invasion. Hmmm…an American warship ( the Sampson, a destroyer) has recently visited New Zealand for the first time in 30 years, in November 2016. New Zealand has a nuclear weapons and nuclear propulsion ban for the last 30 years. John Kerry confirmed that the Sampson is not nuclear propelled, but refused to comment on whether it was armed with nuclear weapons, as is usual with U.S. warships. The U.S. acknowledged New Zealand’s anti-nuclear ban, but refused to confirm or deny the presence of nuclear weapons on the destroyer.

      So, our relations with New Zealand have now been “normalized”, and the U.S. and New Zealand will cooperate from now on in defending the region.

      http://www.newshub.co.nz/politics/nz-us-security-cooperation-normalised-2016111314

      It will be very interesting indeed to see if the new Prime Minister supports the nuclear weapons ban, although I guess now the deed is done. U.S. warships possibly carrying nuclear weapons can now enter NZ territorial waters.

      I didn’t know about the possibly nuclear armed destroyer entering NZ waters, when I reasoned that if we are preparing NZ as a global warming hiding hole for the rich, we would have to defend NZ with nuclear weapons. So, that was a prediction. In the laboratory, hypotheses that make good predictions are favored over those that don’t.

      Interesting speculations, and the beginnings of a consistent hypothesis, maybe.

      ExxonMobil, controlled by the Rockefellers traditionally, has been in NZ for over a hundred years. Very interesting.

      Reply
      • Defense cooperation between New Zealand and the USA could benefit NZ, as well. If global warming and a methane catastrophe really kick in, their real estate just got much more valuable, to a nuclear armed China, for example. So maybe the NZ political leadership is softening on the nuclear ban.

        Just speculating, of course.

        Reply
      • I have a trick when using Google as an investigative tool, that others might be interested in.

        It’s a watered down variation on the Scientific Method, in my opinion. I call the process “Guess and Test”.

        Make a guess, and come up with reasonable consequences of that guess. Google the reasonable consequences, and see if those predictions come true. Keep doing that. Hypotheses that make good predictions are favored, and get more weight and attention. Willingness to admit error is crucial to making Guess and Test work. Using good sources of information is crucial.

        All that this technique can do is assist in generating consistent hypotheses. But, considering the complexity of the world and the amount of true information available via the internet, generating consistent hypotheses goes a long way toward finding the truth, I think.

        Reply
  48. Suzanne

     /  December 8, 2016

    The CC news continues to be bleak . The news coming from who the Lunatic is putting in charge of his Regime….even more bleak. However, it is more important than ever to stay “active” and “resist” against these dark, dark times.

    We cannot forget…that the Lunatic did NOT get a mandate…and the majority of voters did NOT vote for the Lunatic. We must fight and make sure our Representatives hear from us…that they must fight against the policies that would further hurt our planet.

    Today..I will once again get out of my comfort zone and attend a rally against the damaging discharges coming out of Lake Okeechobee. Many environmental groups will be represented, and we are hoping for a large crowd. And this is what we can all do. Stand Up and Make Noise…MAKE NOISE…..say to the world..we are not going to sit quietly by while greed and ignorance destroy our planet. We will not go gently into that long dark night.

    This is from a Bernie speech at Berkeley a few days ago…
    http://news.berkeley.edu/2016/12/02/berniesanders-our-revolution/

    “Mr. Trump, you have to start listening to scientists and not just the fossil fuel industry. Climate change is real. It is caused by human activity. It is already causing horrific problems around the world,” Sanders said. “We are the custodians of this, our only planet. We cannot turn our backs on this planet. We are going to take on the fossil fuel industry and transform our energy system.”

    To those discouraged at the prospect of a Trump presidency, he said: “The only option that you have is to figure out what’s the most effective way you can fight back … Despair is not an option.”

    Reply
    • Robert Alexander

       /  December 8, 2016

      Every morning, I quietly chant, “Ivanka, Ivanka, Ivanka,” with repetitions at lunch, dinner, and bedtime.

      This eases my discomfort and, in a hundred days or so, I’ll compare notes.

      Reply
      • Yeah, me too. Trump can’t really say “you’re fired” to his favorite daughter, I think. Let’s hope she can bring him around, a bit.

        Having said that, she has no formal power, won’t sit in on cabinet meetings (I think, God knows what Donald Trump will do), and so on. The incoming Trump Administration is talking about “privatizing” Native American reservations, to steal their oil, gas, and possibly coal- another bad sign.

        Trump is stubborn, but Ivanka seems pretty stubborn too, and Donald does listen to her.

        Reply
    • First, Suzanne, I want to thank you for your activism. You are an example to every one of us. Second, I want to thank you for posting these statements by Bernie. Despair is not an option. We’ve got to fight for what’s right and we’ve got to be smart about it.

      Reply
      • Suzanne

         /  December 8, 2016

        Thank you Robert I appreciate your kind words. I am not one of those people who likes to put herself out there…(I lurked here and on a lot of sites for years before even signing up to comment), but am determined, in what I consider to be a crisis, to do more than send money, lurk and sign petitions. So, putting myself out there..is challenging for me…but IMO incredibly important at this critical time.
        And a thank you to all the great people here who do so much to give us such a wonderful community at your blog..and who also work hard in their own communities to save our beautiful biosphere. I am grateful to have such a place to come where sanity and support are plentiful.

        Reply
  49. Cate

     /  December 8, 2016

    https://thinkprogress.org/rapid-arctic-ice-melt-economic-trump-98e0e01e23e#.ix3xngyfp

    Joe Romm poses three questions for coastal property owners and financial institutions:

    “What year will coastal property values crash? I first posed the question in 2009, pointing out that coastal property values will crash long before sea levels have actually risen a few feet. Instead, coastal property values will crash when a large fraction of the financial community, mortgage bankers and opinion-makers — along with a smaller but substantial fraction of the public — realize that it is too late for us to stop catastrophic sea level rise…..

    “When will the smart money walk away?….

    “Who will be the smart money that gets out early — and who will be the other kind of money?”

    Reply
    • Robert In New Orleans

       /  December 8, 2016

      It is a very good article as I am awaiting the answers myself.

      Just don’t read the comment section as it has been over run by denialist trolls. I really enjoyed the old Climate Progress blog, but when it was absorbed by the Think Progress site the comments were left open to every screwball and nutcase in town.

      Reply
    • So I think the other kind of money is quietly starting to hedge this already. It could well be the new big short. I hope not. But markets do not behave rationally or honestly or in a forthright manner.

      Reply
      • mulga mumblebrain

         /  December 8, 2016

        Perhaps starting a panic re. coastal property prices, perhaps, say, with some ‘fake news’, and thereby crashing the financial Ponzi superstructure, might end up doing good. Crashing the economy might wake up people, it might also lessen emissions somewhat, for a while, it might put the Rethuglicans on the nose, it might hinder Trump’s plutocratic ambitions, and it might, in short, provoke a ‘healing crisis’. After all, ‘Business As Usual’ plus Hope for some rational awakening among the ruling class is a recipe for catastrophe.

        Reply
        • Agree completely. I urge all skeptic/deniers to take advantage of their knowledge that global warming is not happening by investing in shoreline property and anything they can buy in the 5 feet above sea level zone. If the skeptic is not acting on their knowledge, they are either a fool or a troll.

  50. Cate

     /  December 8, 2016

    https://eos.org/research-spotlights/buzzing-ice-shelf-makes-waves-in-the-air-above

    From the Journal of Geophys Research:
    A model-based study shows that atmospheric waves seem to be related to vibrations in the Ross Ice shelf.

    I have no idea what this is or means, but RS, I am sure you do. 🙂 But I’m thinking it’s probably another reason we don’t want to be losing ice shelves….

    Reply
    • The Ross Ice Shelf is the size of France. But it also moves because it floats. When it does so, it generates significant atmospheric wave patterns. They’re thinking about using these wave patterns as a wave to study the ice shelf.

      Reply
  51. Robert’s post is another good read about a very undeniable Arctic phenomenon.

    As that Arctic sea ice morphs into water, it is relocated to other parts of the global ocean to potentially cause other problems (Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us? – 9).

    Leave oil in the ground.

    Reply
  52. Suzanne

     /  December 8, 2016

    “Trump Advisers Propose Privatizing Native American Reservations”
    https://www.democracynow.org/2016/12/6/headlines/trump_advisers_propose_privatizing_native_american_reservations

    Meanwhile, advisers to President-elect Donald Trump told Reuters they are proposing to privatize Native American reservations in order to further accelerate the extraction of oil, gas and other minerals. In response, Tom Goldtooth, head of the Indigenous Environmental Network, said, “Our spiritual leaders are opposed to the privatization of our lands, which means the commoditization of the nature, water, air we hold sacred. Privatization has been the goal since colonization—to strip Native Nations of their sovereignty.”

    Reply
    • Robert In New Orleans

       /  December 8, 2016

      I believe Native Americans and their supporters will band together and fight this if it comes about.

      Reply
    • We are all Native Americans now — facing off against a privatization which is basically a corporate looting of public wealth.

      Reply
  53. Raul M

     /  December 8, 2016

    Stripped of the floodgates, the saltwater comes up the road drains and shows living arrangements have become static within the new style tide zones. So to realize, even though the saltwater “intrusion” spoils the fresh water well fields further inland than otherwise, we might put a floodgate on the sewer road drain that has a hinge at the top to keep the saltwater from coming from the sea and would still allow rain water to push the flood door open when it rains, (or not). I had missed that part of the conversation, is there much more to it than just that?

    Reply
  54. For what it’s worth:

    Leonardo DiCaprio meets Trump as climate sceptic appointed

    Leonardo DiCaprio and the head of his foundation met on Wednesday with US president-elect Donald Trump to discuss how jobs centring on preserving the environment can boost the economy, hours after Trump announced a climate science sceptic to head the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/08/leonardo-dicaprio-donald-trump-green-jobs

    Reply
    • Hatrack

       /  December 8, 2016

      What it’s worth, in light of the T***p EPA nomination, is precisely nothing. At best, it’s a fig leaf for the reality-based community so that we can say that at least we tried.

      Reply
    • Robert In New Orleans

       /  December 8, 2016

      The real question that should be asked is: Are Al Gore’s and Leonardo DiCaprio’s inputs being taken seriously or is this just Kabuki Theater?

      Reply
    • It’s pretty clear that there’s been a huge amount to diplomatic effort from those on our side. Trump appears mostly deaf to it. If he does act, it’s been in the form of greenwash, substanceless gestures, and hand waving. What we’ve come to expect from the other side for all these years.

      Reply
      • humanistruth

         /  December 9, 2016

        Trump isn’t capable of changing his stance on climate because,
        “…, people on the far end of the narcissist spectrum lack empathy. And,…, “these personality traits are fixed and rigid.” That person doesn’t change. They don’t pivot. Not what you would want in the leader of the world’s most powerful nation.”
        See What a Top FBI Profiler Taught Me About Extreme Narcissists Like Donald Trump at http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/what-top-fbi-profiler-taught-me-about-extreme-narcissists-donald-trump

        Reply
        • Amazingly insightful article by Romm here. And the main drive is correct — the best thing to do with a narcissist is do everything you can to shut them down. You can’t trust them. You can’t believe what they say. You’ve got to set strong boundaries to keep yourself from being exploited. And for a person in Trump’s position of high power, the best bet is unified, active resistance.

      • Too early to tell yet. As Thomas Friedman wrote a few weeks ago (and was pilloried for), the folks who backed Trump are cranks, because only cranks thought he could win. Those are the people he is listening to and rewarding now–although he’s easing off on a few of his previous positions.

        I don’t expect him to turn on a dime, and he may not turn at all. To be on the safe side, the latter is what I expect. However, I’m also OK with being pleasantly surprised if there’s a change, and I’m very appreciative of those who are using their prominence to make an effort to get his ear.

        Reply
        • I’m greatful for the diplomatic efforts by people like Gore and DiCaprio. In a way, these are gestures that must be taken. If they have an influence, great. But I wouldn’t portray them as anything more than Hail Mary passes at this time. Everything Trump is doing now runs completely counter to what needs to be done. His appointments look like an executioner squad for a liveable climate.

        • OK, sounds good. To me, that sounds pretty similar to what I said. I just take issue with the folks here and elsewhere (e.g., one NYT columnist recently said Gore looked like a fool) who are criticizing the attempts. There is no point or value in that. I’m angry too, but I’m not going to take it out on allies.

  55. Suzanne

     /  December 8, 2016

    “Scott Pruitt, Trump’s Climate-Denying is Worse Than You Think” by Jay Michaelson at The Daily Beast
    Quote from Article:

    Chances are, unless you’re a huge environmental nerd, you haven’t even heard of most of these. (I ran the environmental law clinic at Yale Law School, and I worked for a former EPA deputy administrator.) And that’s the point. Big-ticket issues like climate change have grabbed the headlines, and they are important. But in terms of impact, the items on this list will be far more significant. And again, they will happen without congressional action, and with limited judicial oversight.

    Reply
  56. Climate change will lead to uncontrollable rise in migration: Study

    “Unprecedented drought and other climatic events in India have forced millions of people from their homes and traditional occupations, with women being the hardest hit.
    “Unless the government helps people prepare for the impacts and implements social protection schemes effectively to tackle agrarian distress and forced migration, climate change will undo the benefits of growth in India,” said Bratindi Jena, ActionAid India’s head of Natural Resources.

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/global-warming/Climate-change-will-lead-to-uncontrollable-rise-in-migration-Study/articleshow/55877815.cms

    Reply
  57. Ryan in New England

     /  December 8, 2016

    What has been occurring in the Arctic the past two years is extraordinary, and terrifying. Recall last December, with above freezing temps and rain at the North Pole around Christmas? We saw these extremely warm air incursions into the Arctic, displacing the Arctic air mass and wrecking the jet stream. I remember everyone being shocked by the storms bringing rain to the high Arctic in the middle of the long polar night.

    https://robertscribbler.com/2015/12/29/warm-storm-brings-rain-over-arctic-sea-ice-in-winter/

    And now for the second consecutive year we are seeing outrageous warmth in the Arctic, and the sea ice is struggling to refreeze. When the summer melt season of 2007 came along it was a big shock. But that was summer. Now we’re seeing some crazy events in the darkness of Winter, setting up a head start for next year’s summer melt. I don’t think it’ll be many years before we see a blue ocean in the Arctic.

    And Robert, thank you so much for the hat tip. I consider it an honor 😉

    Reply
  58. Cheryl Bennett

     /  December 8, 2016

    Hello Robert and everyone,
    Here is a quick action to take:
    US Representative Lamar Smith, Chair of House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology (and climate change denier) has a one-question survey on his website about congressional priorities for the year.
    Please select “other”and write in “climate change mitigation.” His website is: lamarsmith.house.gov.

    Reply
  59. Ryan in New England

     /  December 9, 2016

    All our worst fears about Trump are quickly becoming reality. And perhaps the most dangerous aspect of a Trump presidency is his ability to ensure catastrophic climate change is in our future. With his pick of Scott Pruit for head of the EPA this is quickly becoming a worst case scenario.

    “Pruitt doesn’t believe in the mission of the EPA, which is to protect human health and the environment,” said Lisa Garcia, vice-president of Earthjustice and a senior adviser to the last two EPA administrators.

    “This isn’t a business agency, it’s an environmental agency. It’s scary to have someone who doesn’t believe in the mission of the EPA walking in to run it. I expect they will choke the funding of the EPA and stop enforcing laws. The work of the agency will basically come to a halt.

    “People at the EPA are in shock, they are worried about carrying out its mission. People are worried about how they will do their jobs, even people who voted for Trump. They didn’t expect this. Clean air and water, safe places for our children to play – these things should be bipartisan. They should be above politics.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/08/epa-scott-pruitt-disaster-environment-senate-democrats

    Reply
  60. I miss snow!

    Reply
  61. miles h

     /  December 9, 2016

    the arctic and antarctic news (and greenland) just leave me aghast and struggling for words… what is there to say beyond merely repeating the data? contextualising it just sounds like apocalyptic scaremongering; not contextualising it makes it a bit geeky and undigestible. i share all Robert’s posts on facebook, but there seems to be very little reaction outside of specialised groups about climate change. it puzzles me why everyone isnt utterly up in arms about whats occurring; why its not on the front page of every newspaper, the lead item on all tv news? why are there not riots in the streets; besieged gvt offices and shops?
    are we seriously strolling so insouciantly to disaster? ….really?…. is this it? we rail and shout in an obscure internet blog (no offence, Robert, i have the deepest, utmost respect for your work here) whilst disaster goes from ‘impending’ to ‘inevitable’ to ‘imminent’…. have we really allowed the entire world to be stolen so blatantly from us, and wrecked…. for MONEY? for glittering baubles and empty ersatz pleasures?.
    i despair.
    im 50… i’ll miss most of the worst consequences.
    may the graves of trump et al (too many to mention – billions of us!) be spat upon by future generations.
    is that the problem – our own complicity in all of this; is that why so many people simply refuse to engage with it? like a liar telling more lies to justify the first, do we carry on as ‘normal’ in order to justify our history of wreckage, it being too much of an admission of guilt to change now. each new crime justifies the last. changing our lifestyles now would be a tacit admission of the appalling guilt for our previous crimes.
    ……. pfft….. ill go look at some cute kitten gifs and do some online shopping for some plastic packaged sadness.
    sorry for the rant – it advances us not one bit….

    Reply
  62. One word for Pacific warming FUKUSHIMA.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: