NASA Data Shows Big Spike For Global Temperatures — 2016 is Third Consecutive Hottest Year on Record

Over just the past three years, global temperatures have risen by about 0.4 degrees Celsius. This was an extreme spike in the rate of warming. One that is unmatched in all of the past 136 years of climate record keeping.

warming-since-1880-shows-acceleration-in-recent-years

During 2016, according to NASA, global temperatures hit 1.21 C above 1880s averages. This is a new record high to shatter all previous heat records. More to the point, the world’s atmosphere and oceans are now hotter than they’ve been in at least the past 100,000 years. This is considerable global warming. Enough to tip the world into a new climate age and bring about substantial geophysical changes.

The most glaring of these changes is the now impending rise of the world’s oceans. And as glaciers and ice shelves show signs of rapid melting in Greenland and Antarctica, we should consider the fact that the last time ocean surface and atmospheric temperatures were so warm, seas were 20 to 30 feet higher than they are today.

Warming across the world was not distributed evenly during 2016. And the Northern Hemisphere polar region, according to NASA, received the heaviest blow from rising atmospheric heat. Above the 80 degree North Latitude line, temperatures were fully 4.9 degrees Celsius above average for the period of an entire year.

hottest-year-on-record-2016

As a result, one of the most vulnerable areas of the world — the Arctic Ocean — was subjected to extraordinary warming. A warming that is now removing a considerable chunk of heat-deflecting sea ice from the Arctic environment and helping to set the stage for further rapid Arctic warming and worsening glacial melt in Greenland.

All this heat in the global system means that the world has crossed a number of critical climate thresholds. This is a bad situation. Coastal cities and island nations are now in peril due to sea level rise. Both stable growing seasons and the stability of regional weather are also now at risk as worsening glacial discharge and changes to ocean surface heat distribution appear to be ongoing and imminent.

These are hard consequences. But even worse consequences are on the way unless fossil fuel emissions are rapidly reduced.

(UPDATED)

Links:

NASA GISS

The Last Time the Oceans Got This Warm, Seas Were 20-30 Feet Higher Than They are Today

Hat tip to Colorado Bob

Hat tip to Joe T

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201 Comments

  1. Weather in Phoenix today is very cold for here, real feel 47 but temp is listed at 51 degrees, midday. Rainy, overcast weather is what we should have had last winter during an El Nino winter 2015 to 2016. The precipitation is always welcome and lots of snow and rain for the northern part of Arizona.

    I didnt mean this to be the first comment just an report on our weather.

    Thanks for all you do, Robert.
    Sheri

    Reply
    • No worries, Sheri.

      Despite a record hot year globally, west coasters are experiencing a bit of relief from the heat due to the exodus of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge and a big influx of moisture as the storm track has finally shifted south again.

      It is an odd event for a La Nina period. Although positive PDO and Pacific Ocean surface warming just north of the Equator appear to have done the trick.

      Longer term trends for the US West appear to be for continued drying. However, this year’s storms should remove drought in many regions.

      Snow levels are higher than they would have been. And though mountain snows will be somewhat refreshed, they will still tend to be lower than 20th Century averages.

      Big Arctic sea ice losses are likely to continue this year as polar warming has remained unabated. This could have a regional impact on west coast weather. But with La Nina and positive PDO, the risk for warmth and drought shifts back to Texas and the central and eastern U.S.

      Reply
  2. jpremon

     /  January 20, 2017

    Wow.

    I can’t think of anything else to write.

    Reply
  3. g. orwell

     /  January 20, 2017

    “Brevity is the sister of talent”
    Well done, as usual.

    Reply
  4. 2016 is Third Consecutive Hottest Year on Record…
    the probability of this happening by chance is 1 in 2.46 million

    Reply
    • Thanks for the context, Bill.

      Reply
    • David Goldstein

       /  January 20, 2017

      Just out of math curiosity…did you calculate that by figuring 136 cubed? (Years of official temps)

      Reply
      • Just simple comparison with three year rates of rise vs past average temperatures. A notably very steep slope on the graph. To re-add caveats, this spike did occur during an El Nino and positive PDO period. But the spike was rather larger than the 1997-1998 spike. And it’s worth noting that El Nino during that time was generally stronger. Overall ocean warming and polar amplification appear to now be playing a role in the present and much larger temperature spike.

        Reply
  5. redskylite

     /  January 20, 2017

    Thanks, Robert, for the narrative on 2016. The graph says a thousand words as we can see the alarming steep climb up. Where will it be during the next extreme El Niño ? the computers are doing a fair job at predictions. If we could shut down now, and return later on in the century, what shocks would we discover and what steps by mankind will we find to deal with the inheritance ?

    I predict that we will see the wealthier small Island nations taking a lead from French Polynesia and living on man made Islands. Sad because they didn’t contribute much to the AGW we created in the first place.

    LOOK: World’s First Floating City is Underway in French Polynesia.

    The French Polynesia has signed a memorandum of understanding with California’s Seasteading Institute in San Francisco on Friday, which is aimed at building the world’s first autonomous floating city.

    According to the institute’s page, the executive director Randolph Hencken supposes that the seasteading offers a solution to create new, resilient territory, as parts of the French Polynesia is currently facing threats of disappearance due to its low-lying nature. It is also seen as a tool for climate change adaptation.

    http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/35132/20170120/look-worlds-first-floating-city-underway-french-polynesia.htm

    Reply
    • 2017 should drop off a bit from 2016. If it doesn’t, then the trouble is worse than expected. That said, I’m looking at 1 to 1.1 C above 1880s for 2017 under current trends. We should beat 2016 again in the next 5 years. Sooner if positive PDO continues and if rates of emissions do not drop off.

      Amazing bit about floating cities. I hope it works out for them. This appears to be a major engineering challenge. And one wonders if it could prove to be a safe home for hundreds of thousands to millions. Or that such floating cities could be economically built and maintained on increasingly stormy world oceans. But I hope it is and it does. If so, I hope others have the opportunity to provide for their communities in a similar fashion and that these floating communities prove to be resilient.

      Reply
      • According, the UKMET 2017 should be second.

        Reply
        • Probably 2nd to 3rd hottest. That wouldn’t be too much drop-off. Post 1998, the drop was greater than 0.2 C. We have a weak La Nina transitioning to warm neutral or weak El Nino come summer. So no strong La Nina to wag this tail.

    • And the suppression of climate change information we saw in the Bush years just returned with a vengeance…

      Reply
      • coloradobob

         /  January 20, 2017

        ” Paging George Orwell , paging Mr. George Orwell. “

        Reply
      • mulga mumblebrain

         /  January 22, 2017

        What fate awaits a country that shoots itself in the head, intellectually? I can imagine other countries’ leaderships and intelligentsia being amused, for a moment-then horrified.

        Reply
    • redskylite

       /  January 20, 2017

      Kind of John Christy’s attitude at the University of Alabama . .

      “The question is, does 2016’s record warmth mean anything scientifically?” Christy said. “I suppose the answer is, not really. Both 1998 and 2016 are anomalies, outliers, and in both cases we have an easily identifiable cause for that anomaly: A powerful El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event. While El Niños are natural climatic events, they also are transient. In the study of climate, we are more concerned with accurately identifying long-term temperature trends than we are with short-term spikes and dips, especially when those spikes and dips have easily identified natural causes.

      https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/01/170104130257.htm

      Reply
      • The long term trend is that we have warmed by nearly 1 C since 1970. It took about 2500 years at the end of the last ice age to experience a similar rate of warming. We’ve done that in 46 years.

        Reply
      • May want to also include rate of ocean heat accumulation:

        Reply
        • Greg

           /  January 21, 2017

          It’s that below 2000m that is most disturbing. Assume very little data for that realm and so surprises likely await us with better data from down there.

        • Henri

           /  January 23, 2017

          Greg, i wouldn’t worry too much about a nasty surprise coming from that direction. SLR is well documented nowadays and it’s source is mostly either glacial melt or thermal expansion. This sets a cap for the ocean heat content increase so it is highly unlikely we will get too much of a shock from that direction. Having said that the current rate of ocean warming is troubling enough without any added uncertainties.

          This graph is more focused in the rate of change and it is astonishing. The ocean heat content has increased in ~20 years as much as in the previous ~120 and we are looking for it to double again in 40 years with current rate. I assume such an increase would make the ocean ecosystems tested today because of heat go from troubled to failed.

        • It’s worth noting that the fresh water lens effect only cools the local surface zone. The lens front pushes warm water toward the ocean bottom and, as a result, the net heat uptake in the oceans as glaciers respond accelerates. It’s primarily the ocean surface and local atmosphere that see negative feedback related cooling. It’s a state change response. But it’s a symptom that the Earth system, as a whole, is gaining heat.

  6. coloradobob

     /  January 20, 2017

    The Italian story –
    Very heavy amounts of snow fell on the east slopes of the central Apennines in the days leading up to Wednesday’s quake. At Valle Castellana, about 30 mi (45 km) northwest of Farindola, roughly three meters (118 inches) of snow fell in a 48-hour period early this week at a surprisingly low elevation of around 2000 feet (700 meters), according to international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera.
    https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3545

    Reply
  7. DJ

     /  January 20, 2017

    So there’s good evidence in the paleo record for what happens to sea levels at current CO2 levels, but the novelty this time is the speed at which the temperature’s changing. If we’re lucky that doesn’t introduce any brand new emergent effects that aren’t reflected in the paleo record…

    Reply
    • Sorry to say, but given the rather rapid rate of warming, we’ll tend to see worse geophysical responses than in the paleo record. Various buffers that would self-establish due to slower time-scales will not have the opportunity to take effect. So SLR rates, once they get going and unless warming turns on a dime, will tend to be worse, biosphere impacts will tend to be worse, wildfires will tend to be worse, harm to species will tend to be worse, and the speed at which impacts to carbon stores and sinks emerge will tend to be worse.

      This doesn’t mean ‘doomsday’ per sey. It’s just that the human forcing has the likelihood to produce outcomes that are worse than indicated by paleoclimate. The one benefit is that the human emission can stop in relatively short order if we get our act together and that the potential exists for humans to learn to draw carbon out of the atmosphere.

      Reply
      • lesliegraham1

         /  January 21, 2017

        “the potential exists for humans to learn to draw carbon out of the atmosphere”

        Supposing we do manage to learn to draw CO2 out of the atmosphere on an unimaginable scale every year for decades as is required (We’ve pumped up 2000Gt and at least half if it is still up there so far as I understand it).
        Does at least some kind of rudimentary plan exist as to where we are going to put all these tens of billions of tons of drawn down CO2 every year?
        If so, where is it languishing? I’d like to peruse it please.

        I’m presuming we must be looking at vast tanker fleets dropping it into the Marianas Trench or something along those lines?
        Or maybe vast fleets of automated floating carbon capture machines en situ over suchlike trenches?
        However it might be done it is surely going to require similar levels of globally organised industrial effort to remove the CO2 from the atmosphere as it did to put it all up there in the first place.

        Somehow I’m not that optimistic that this level of industrial effort is a realistic proposal in a world where agricultural production (aka food) and the global economy is crashing.

        Reply
        • Approx 600 gt Carbon have been emitted by humans. A rational goal to start would be for human activity to be able to draw down approx 1 gt per year or about 1/10 the present emission. Materials + Land use change/reforestation + BCCS appears to be a decent set of options for a first start. Concrete as carbon capture medium is a good example. Anything that could be plugged into the human system on a mass scale. The goal should be for net carbon negative societies by or, hopefully, before 2050. The goal is significant in that it requires an energy transition, serious changes to ag/food production, land use, and integration of new materials and carbon capture systems.

    • coloradobob

       /  January 20, 2017

      Bingo !!!

      Reply
  8. coloradobob

     /  January 20, 2017

    Just moments after President Donald Trump took the oath of office Friday, the official White House website was transformed into a set of policy pledges offering the broad contours of the Trump administration’s top priorities — including fierce support for law enforcement and gun owners’ rights to defend themselves, the seeming immediate elimination of the White House’s policy page on climate change and a notable absence of any directives involving President Obama’s Affordable Care Act.

    “Our job is not to make life more comfortable for the rioter, the looter, or the violent disrupter,” reads the law and order section, which calls for “more law enforcement” and “more effective policing.” “Our job is to make life more comfortable for parents who want their kids to be able to walk the streets safely. Or the senior citizen waiting for a bus. Or the young child walking home from school.”

    Link

    Reply
    • This looks pretty police state-like to me…

      Reply
      • coloradobob

         /  January 20, 2017

        Watch for his “private army” , and some event where he calls for “special powers”.

        Reply
        • So it looks like he’s attacking all of Congress at the moment. Seems that the power grabbing has already started. Not that Congress is going to just lay down and take it.

    • coloradobob

       /  January 20, 2017

      The closest he came was to include among his scientific aspirations “to free the Earth from the miseries of disease.”

      Mental Illness chief among them .

      Reply
      • Well, it seems to me that the right tends to ignore mental illness altogether. Especially when it appears in their party leader…

        Reply
      • Apt comic, Vernon. But it’s not so simple. Trump’s lack of popularity and continued drive to make it ‘all about him’ will tend to enflame divisions. In addition, republicans concerned about being linked to Trump will try to break away. Finally, it’s pretty clear that bad policy choices are coming and that there’s plenty of blame coming both for republicans and Trump, which will tend to increase divisions. Sure, they’ll both agree on tax cuts for the rich and they’ll both take the blame for wrecking the budget, exploding the debt, and increasing an already worsening inequality in the US and around the world.

        Reply
    • Anti-Trump protests occurring around the world:

      Reply
  9. coloradobob

     /  January 20, 2017

    Instead, he vowed to eliminate “harmful and unnecessary policies” such as the Climate Action Plan and the Waters of the United States rule. The first represents a variety of efforts President Obama pursued to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions while the second is a rule issued by the Environmental Protection Agency to protect not only the largest waterways but smaller tributaries that others believe should fall under the jurisdiction of states rather than the federal government.

    Link

    Reply
    • So we had an effective EPA for the past 8 years. That was a nice change of pace. Now it’s back to harassing the EPA and filling it with quack executive appointees.

      Reply
  10. coloradobob

     /  January 20, 2017

    The Doors – When the Music’s Over (with Lyrics)

    What have they done to the earth?
    What have they done to our fair sister?
    Ravaged and plundered and ripped her and bit her
    Stuck her with knives in the side of the dawn
    And tied her with fences and dragged her down

    Reply
  11. coloradobob

     /  January 20, 2017

    The water machine –

    A Dr. Masters reader :

    145. TimSoCal
    9:59 PM GMT on January 20, 2017
    1.8 inches of rain today in Northridge CA. Sitting right at 6″ for 2017, with 3 more inches expected Sunday. Just crazy.

    Reply
  12. coloradobob

     /  January 20, 2017

    Reply
  13. coloradobob

     /  January 20, 2017

    Another Master’s reader –

    95. daddyjames
    7:38 PM GMT on January 20, 2017
    The Digital Transition: How the Presidential Transition Works in the Social Media Age

    Apparently they have not gotten to this site yet.
    This is the Official Archive for the previous administration.

    https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2016/10 /31/digital-transition-how-presidential-transition -works-social-media-age

    First, we are preserving the material we’ve created with the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA). From tweets to snaps, all of the material we’ve published online will be preserved with NARA just as previous administrations have done with records ranging from handwritten notes to faxes to emails. Second, wherever possible, we are working to ensure these materials continue to be accessible on the platforms where they were created, allowing for real time access to the content we%u2019ve developed. Finally, we are working to ensure that the next president and administration -regardless of party – can continue to use and develop the digital assets we have created to connect directly with the people they serve.

    Guess that part did not pan out.

    Addedum: a note located at the top of the page reads, “This is historical material “frozen in time”. The website is no longer updated and links to external websites and some internal pages may not work”.

    Additional addendum:
    Stand corrected. It did pan out. Archives for the Obama Administration (at least for the whitehouse.gov]

    The report United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (opens a pdf).

    Reply
    • It’s good to see that some of this data is being preserved. The take-down of the information from presidential sites is pretty ridiculous. A continuation of the whole ludicrous attack against science by the fossil fuel industry and related politicians that has been ongoing for decades now.

      Reply
  14. coloradobob

     /  January 20, 2017

    I am so glad, I’m not pulling the grade into “The Flag” tonight. Driving around the parking lot at “Little America” searching for a spot.

    The water machine is running flat out.

    Reply
  15. coloradobob

     /  January 20, 2017

    Trust me, after 100 days Athlete’s Foot will be more popular.

    Reply
  16. coloradobob

     /  January 20, 2017

    The worst thing is going to be watching him speak, watch his right hand . He points , like a guns up sign, then he makes the O.K. sign. His entire speeches are this cycle. Over, and over , and over. Watch his right hand.

    Reply
    • Cate

       /  January 20, 2017

      Drives me nuts.

      Reply
    • Greg

       /  January 21, 2017

      Note his interactions with Melania in public. Not even a hug after his swearing in. Not very warm with the closest person to him, the one who knows him best.

      Reply
    • Greg

       /  January 21, 2017

      Worse is that he drives the conversation. He sucks the air out of the collective room. The press is eating it up even when it’s negative coverage. Ad revenues must be awesome. He’s sitting on our faces gassing.

      Reply
    • Genomik

       /  January 21, 2017

      That hand of his drives me crazy. I screamed when he won the election because I knew I would face 4 years of that hand.

      Reply
  17. coloradobob

     /  January 21, 2017

    The EPA didn’t kill coal mining jobs in West Virginia Cutting the tops off mountains did.

    And all this Uber tech , …………….. guess what , Nobody drives one of those giant haul trucks anymore. All these drivers are going the way of the buffalo.
    The largest trucks on Earth are about to be the first adopters.
    And thousands of mine workers all over the world are about to lose their jobs.

    Welcome to the future/

    Reply
  18. coloradobob

     /  January 21, 2017

    There are 3 million truck drivers in America. This self driving car stuff, is aimed right at them.
    That’s not “out sourcing” . That’s a world sweeping away the past as fast as it can.

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  January 21, 2017

      Sabots (pronounced “Sa-BOE”) were a historical type of footwear made of wood worn on Earth during the 19th century. In etymology, the term “sabot” is the root for the word “sabotage”.
      When the USS Enterprise-A was being ordered back to Spacedock following the 2293 capture of James T. Kirk and Leonard McCoy, Valeris recalled a story to the senior staff: “400 years ago, on Earth, workers who felt their livelihood threatened by automation, flung their wooden shoes called ‘sabots’ into the machines to stop them. Hence the word ‘sabotage’.”

      http://memory-alpha.wikia.com/wiki/Sabot

      Reply
    • Greg

       /  January 21, 2017

      And then the future will be mostly living underground. Who would want to be outside? with swarms of electric drones delivering most of your goods to you. But I get ahead of myself.

      Reply
  19. coloradobob

     /  January 21, 2017

    The world is filled with people throwing ‘sabots’ .

    Reply
  20. coloradobob

     /  January 21, 2017

    Reply
  21. Andy_in_SD

     /  January 21, 2017

    No shortage of rain yesterday / today / through Monday at least.

    Over 2″ here in the past 36 hrs, trees down on some streets and some flooding. Nothing truly dangerous as others have been experiencing. The ground is saturated though, I had to dig a quick drainage ditch on the side of the house. The soil was like wet snow as far down as I dug (at least 1.5 ft). Great conditions if you have to pull stumps.

    Reply
    • wharf rat

       /  January 21, 2017

      Still raining on and off up here, as Rat gets ready to head to the town march. Didn’t measure this storm, but I got 14 inches from the previous one. The way I see it, if I wanted to march in the rain, I would have joined the army. However, the town mothers keep saying, “Democracy doesn’t take a rain day, and neither do we”, so I don’t have much choice.
      This could be “big”; the largest town demo I know, not counting school walk-outs, about was maybe 25 people, against Gulf War 1. We could maybe get to 100 on this one. There are also 3 other marches in the county; Ukiah, Fort Bragg, and Gualala. We’re the only one right on Hiway 101, so the plan is to have lines along both sides, with an hourly exercise of our constitutionally protected crosswalk rights.

      He wore black denim trousers and motorcycle boots
      And a black leather jacket with an eagle on the back
      He had a hopped-up ‘cycle that took off like a gun
      That fool was the terror of Highway 101

      Reply
    • We’re having a heavy rainy season here in Southeast Brasil too. This January is already the 5th more rainy, even though there’s still nine days left for the month (and no sign of that rain stopping). Yesterday we had six cities in São Paulo getting more than 100mm rain/24h – Guaruja, Mairiporã (where I live – 102mm rain this Saturday), Praia Grande, Santos, Cubatão e São Vicente (with 139mm rain/24h this saturday). In the 18th, Franco da Rocha had 171,6 mm rain. A few people have lost houses in mudslides, but there have been no deaths by drowning or mudslide yet this rainy season, which is a good surprise, considering the strenght of the rains and Brasil’s historic. And a bit more in the plus side, the Cantareira system is now 84% full, having recovered far faster than expected.

      Reply
  22. coloradobob

     /  January 21, 2017

    When The Levee Breaks Alison Krauss Robert Plant

    Reply
  23. coloradobob

     /  January 21, 2017

    Robert Plant & Alison Krauss – “Fortune Teller”

    Reply
  24. coloradobob

     /  January 21, 2017

    Robert Plant | ’29 Palms’

    Reply
  25. coloradobob

     /  January 21, 2017

    Pulling the “Flag”. West bound it’s a long slow grade. Off the rocky forest. East bound it’s a really steep grade. off the river. Hauling lettuce out of California. It’s snowing like hell on the “Flag” tonight. My thoughts are with the drivers seeking a place to park. Soon the robots will do this work.

    Cheetoe Boy is about to stick his finger it all of this.

    Reply
  26. coloradobob

     /  January 21, 2017

    His understanding of the modern world , reminds me of a brain dead dolphin.

    Reply
  27. Matthew

     /  January 21, 2017

    Professor Stroeve says this can be brought under control if we burn less fossil fuels. I can’t see that that is correct. The warming is already locked in and it’ll take thousands of years to undo this mess whether we stop burning fossil fuels or not.

    I think the next few decades are going to be interesting.

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  January 21, 2017

      I think the next few decades are going to be interesting.

      The next 4 years , Trump denies Nature. Nature is batting now. Nature is about to grab him by the throat .

      Reply
    • We’ve already set off changes that will probably last for tens of thousands of years. But we can act to reduce the damage and to mitigate a pretty serious response by the global climate system.

      Reply
  28. Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, declared (as if a do nothing congress is a badge of honor) that the 113th Congress will not protect a single new acre of public land as a Park, National Monument or Wilderness Area. Last years congress was the first ever in 72 years of tradition that failed to expand land’s open to the public and to protect flora and fauna. To exacerbate the Republican War on the Natural World, a bill is sailing through congress that would, for the first time in the history of the US, begin selling off “surplus” public lands to the highest bidder.

    Reply
  29. coloradobob

     /  January 21, 2017

    Nature is batting now. Nature is about to grab him by the throat .

    Get ready little lady. “Hell comes to breakfast. ‘

    Reply
  30. Tigertown

     /  January 21, 2017

    In just a few short days of stormy weather, the Arctic just lost a volume of sea ice equivalent to a cube 8.2 mile wide by 8.2 miles wide by 8.2 miles high., or about 548 cubic miles / 1420 cubic kilometers.

    Reply
  31. Caco

     /  January 21, 2017

    The weather is just been plain weird lately. Supposed to be a la nina?? Like no la nina I have ever seen before. Its supposed to be the middle of summer. This week had hail on three days, snow on day four, gale force winds and barely ever get over 22°C.
    Winter was warmer than this!!

    I go from angry, to panic, to defeatist and back to angry. I really feel like I am in mourning, for what we have done to the planet

    Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  January 22, 2017

      A very rapid destabilisation of the planetary system, principally, but not only, of the climate system, was always quite likely to lead to chaos. So many forcings, so many positive feed-backs, so many ameliorating negative feed-backs compromised, and the increasing assaults of industrial civilization still ever ratcheting upwards. And, now, the coup de grace-Trump, with his imbecile belief that he can simply decree the laws of physics and the corpus of climate science anathema, and make them disappear. The sane world will surely need to combine to isolate the USA while ever this moral and intellectual disease rages, and before it spreads to too many other countries. Australia is showing all the signs of being heavily infected, already. after decades of preparation by the Murdoch MSM and other malevolent forces.

      Reply
  32. Cate

     /  January 21, 2017

    OT: nothing to do with climate…then again….

    “The die is cast: why Trump can’t help but try dictatorship”

    “…..What we may not have noticed is that this frightening course has become path-dependent, and historically very familiar. For one thing, he’s less a challenger than the savior of the only-too-American (and global) “regime” of casino-style financing, predatory lending, and degrading, intrusive consumer marketing that has made this financer of casinos and a predatory self-marketer its president…..”

    https://www.opendemocracy.net/jim-sleeper/die-is-cast-why-trump-can-t-help-but-try-dictatorship

    Reply
  33. Whachamacallit

     /  January 21, 2017

    While I agree with the general point you’re making here, isn’t it a bit soon to say that AGW is accelerating? Tamino, a statistician, showed that while three consecutive record breakers are surprising, it’s not been a long enough time to confirm if there’s actually been a change in the linear trend. Although if 2017 turns out to still be around-to-above 1 C about preindustrial, then maybe you’re right…

    Reply
    • It’s the largest warm spike in the global climate record. And it will at least result in an acceleration in the decadal rate of warming. Given the acceleration in the rate of ocean heat uptake, it is likely that the atmosphere will continue to follow suit until glacial rates of response become considerable. As I noted above, this heat spike is considerably more significant than 1998 and it comes along with a dramatically steepening trend line. The El Niño signal for warming in 2016 is there, but it is dwarfed by the polar amplification signal. The 2016 El Niño was strong, but probably not quite as strong as 1998. Broader ocean surface warming is far more considerable.

      These features, together with the record spike and steepening trend line are evidence of warming acceleration.

      Add in the fact that 2017 is likely to back off to just 2nd or 3rd hottest on record in the best case, the fact that global carbon emissions are still near peak levels, the fact that atmospheric CO2 rates of accumulation are at record highs, and the fact that albedo loss is accelerating and you have a lot of factors pushing for warming acceleration. I think we might get to 0.25 C for the 2020s and 2030s maybe 0.3 C or more before hitting approx 1.6 to 2 C average by 2040 at which point response from glaciers is probably considerable enough to start adding a notable negative forcing at the ocean surface.

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  January 21, 2017

        News from the North: a Bombardier snow machine on a routine cargo run went through the ice in Nunavut today, killing three. Went through the ice. In Nunavut. In January.

        And this, to file under “never seen anything like it”: an ice bridge is weeks late forming in the Yukon.
        http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/yukon-ice-bridge-dawson-city-ireland-janowicz-west-dawson-1.3943917

        Reply
      • Seem to recall a while ago Michael Mann predicting 2° C average warming by 2036 unless we act fast – which we haven’t yet.

        Reply
        • Phil

           /  January 22, 2017

          Using information published in the most recent synthesis report of the IPCC and updated emissions data from The Global Carbon Report, Carbon Brief estimated that carbon budgets consistent with 66%, 50% and 33% chances of keeping global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 would be exhausted within 20.3, 27.8 and 32.9 years, respectively.

          This implies, assuming similar annual GHG emission totals in 2015 (39.7 billion tonnes), that these carbon budgets would be exhausted in around 2036, 2043 and 2048, respectively.

          https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-only-five-years-left-before-one-point-five-c-budget-is-blown

        • Mann’s warming scenario was for 2 C by 2036 if humans continue current rates of CO2 emission and IF equilibrium climate sensitivity for this Century is 3.0.

          Mann in the Scientific American:

          “Yet I have done some calculations that I think can answer those questions now: If the world keeps burning fossil fuels at the current rate, it will cross a threshold into environmental ruin by 2036. The “faux pause” could buy the planet a few extra years beyond that date to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and avoid the crossover—but only a few.”

          https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mann-why-global-warming-will-cross-a-dangerous-threshold-in-2036/

          Relevant graphic here:

          I draw a lot from Mann in my own assessment which assumes a degree of glacial responses over the period through 2040 — especially as warming approaches 1.5 to 2 C. This pulls my atmospheric value down a bit due to the fresh water lens effect.

          It’s worth noting that we will pass an atmospheric 405 ppm CO2 value this year — the value that Mann noted as the bottom limit for missing 2 C this Century. Under constant emissions, we can assume that Earth adds approx 40-55 ppm CO2 by 2036. CO2e over the same period should rise from 490 ppm CO2e today to around 550 ppm CO2e by 2036.

          Rapid response by the global community could shave as much as 10-15 ppm CO2e off these values. Possibly more in the more aggressive scenarios.

          Aerosol negative feedbacks drop in the Mann model, which adds a bit more kick to the rate of warming. But the primary driver, of course, is the high ghg levels.

      • mulga mumblebrain

         /  January 22, 2017

        The heating of the oceans is the killer. It guarantees increasing planetary temperatures, temperature extremes, derangement of the hydrological cycle AND mass death of marine organisms including ever increasing coral bleaching and deaths of fishes and marine mammals and reptiles etc. Not to forget the loss of kelp forests, mangroves and sea-grass meadows. And the spread of toxic algal blooms and marine ‘dead zones’, presaging the hydrogen sulphide Great Dying, as at the end of the Permian.
        With Trump in power it is now a matter of IMMINENT life and death for our species. We cannot afford the ‘soft denialism’ of idiot predictions of a ‘few metres’ SLR ‘by 2100’, or any of the other plethora of disasters, falsely predicted for decades away. That is as damaging as the hard denialism of the Trumpian lunatics and their Big Capitalist backers. And it is insanity of similar ilk, in my opinion, to fool yourself that capitalism can be ‘reformed’ to solve these disasters, or that ‘benevolent billionaires’ will ride to the rescue. Or that very slightly less insane mainstream political parties will do a better job than the florid lunatics. Or that the MSM will EVER tell the Truth, the whole Truth and nothing but the Truth, when they are just the propaganda arms of the omnicidal system. We have to get rid of the lot, somehow-surely Trump is the final proof of that reality.

        Reply
        • Cate

           /  January 22, 2017

          MM, as usual, I must agree. Things just got a whole lot worse. His speech to the CIA yesterday was a clear demonstration that the world is now at the mercy of a maniac who could spring a nuclear war upon us at any time.

          I suspect he will be taken care of, and sooner rather than later—not that what replaces him would be any better, just perhaps a little more predictable, a little less overtly insane.

        • So the science is trying to play catch up on rates of glacial loss. 6-9 feet by end century is still the most likely scenario given what we know and what we are able to project effectively. However, the models for glacial response rates are still evolving and there is still so much we don’t know. So it’s definitely possible that rates will be faster, and considerably faster.

          I wouldn’t call conservative predictions soft denialism. But what I would say is that the 1 meter projection is probably far too conservative, and that even the 2-3 meter projection could end up conservative. That said, we have seen a lot of progress in the science during recent years. I think people need to understand how tough a problem this is to effectively solve. Science is about attempting to produce a hard-evidence based accurate prediction. Anyone can stick their finger in the air and make a claim. That’s not what we’re doing here. We’re looking at the science and we are trying develop an accurate scenario.

      • JoeT

         /  January 23, 2017

        Robert, I’m a long-time fan of your blog, although I don’t post very often. You pick out topics of interest that no one else covers. Unfortunately, I disagree that the warming is accelerating. The problem is that the error in the trend for the last 3 years is enormous because of the short time interval. Try it yourself. You can find the skeptical science trend calculator here. Using GISTEMP. for 1970 to 2017 the trend plus the 2 sigma uncertainty including autocorrelation is 0.181 +/- 0.029 C/decade. Now try 2014 to 2017 — the trend is 1.075 +/- 1.978 C/decade. Whacha is right that Grant Foster has discussed this issue numerous times. The huge uncertainty in the trend is the reason there was no pause or slowdown in the temperature record, even before Karl ’15 came out.

        Or look at Tamino’s very recent post The Pause that Never Happened. Skim down to the 5th figure where he shows the temperature time series with ENSO, solar variation and volcanic eruptions removed. One might try fitting a quadratic to the time series and looking at the residuals but I’m sure Grant would argue there is no there is insufficient evidence to claim an acceleration.

        Finally, look at today’s post at skeptical science
        We’re now breaking global temperature records once every three years
        . Stefan Rahmstorff had this to say:

        “There is no statistical evidence for recent acceleration, just as there never was statistical evidence for a “slowdown” in global warming before the recent series of records. It’s all still within the noise (which could well be hiding an acceleration, but we cannot tell yet from these data).”

        In conclusion, we may very well be setting ourselves up for an acceleration. Polar amplification, as predicted by Manabe and Stouffer in 1980, has shown up in full force this year. Positive feedback from permafrost melt and the ice-albedo effect will most likely take on a stronger role in the coming years. But any evidence of an actual acceleration in the global temperature time series is going to have to wait.

        Reply
        • Thanks for this, Joe. Much appreciated. Will take a look and add an update to this post.

        • OK, here’s a cherry…

          Looked at the Skeptical Science model and found that the trend did move a little in the 1970 base case comparison by around 0.005 which is probably not statistically significant at this time.

          Also looks to me that this kind of statistical model would only catch an acceleration in the rear view given the longer averaging period. So you would have a 3-5 year delay before an acceleration became more obvious.

          That said, I should probably be a bit more clear.

          EDIT: I’ve decided to drop the acceleration assertion and focus more on the near term spike (which I think is worth taking a look at). I think the issue of acceleration, which is predicted and may be happening but not indicated in the long term trend graphs, is worth a more open discussion in a later blog that includes quotes from experts.

        • JoeT

           /  January 24, 2017

          Robert, I think it was a wise move to give the issue of acceleration a much more careful and cautious analysis. You are right to focus on the near term spike instead. Thanks for all you do in getting the word out. It’s why I keep coming back here — I always learn something new and come away inspired by the commitment.

  34. wharf rat

     /  January 21, 2017

    Reply
  35. cushngtree

     /  January 21, 2017

    All 7 continents are joining in the Women’s March:
    https://www.indy100.com/article/womens-march-anti-donald-trump-protest-worldwide-best-signs-posters-placards-7539251?utm_source=indy&utm_medium=top5&utm_campaign=i100

    My favorite is the Super-Callous-Fascist-Racist-Extra-Bragga-docious!

    Reply
    • Among the more than 500 K protesters here in DC today. Never seen anything like it. When progressive, women’s rights, minority rights, and climate movements join together it’s… WOW.

      Reply
      • wharf rat

         /  January 22, 2017

        How extraordinary is today? I’ve heard 135K in Seattle. 250 K for Chicago, 750 K in LA. (per Fox, Ch 11);

        For all the furor and passion of the Vietnam War, on any given day, there was only SF and DC or NYC. I was in grad school in LA, and a bunch of us drove to SF for this.

        Flashback to 1971: 156,000 march to protest the Vietnam War

        According to the UC Berkeley Library of Social Activism, the rally took place on April 24, 1971. While 200,000 people held a rally on the Mall in Washington DC, around 156,000 simultaneously marched here in San Francisco. It was the largest such rally to date on the West Coast.

        http://richmondsfblog.com/2011/02/04/flashback-to-1971-156000-march-to-protest-the-vietnam-war/
        =
        Antiwar protests held in New York and San Francisco – Apr 15, 1967 …

        Massive parades to protest Vietnam policy are held in New York and San Francisco. In New York, police estimated that 100,000 to 125,000 people listened to speeches by Martin Luther King, Jr., Floyd McKissick, Stokely Carmichael and Dr. Benjamin Spock. Prior to the march, nearly 200 draft cards were burned by youths in Central Park. In San Francisco, black nationalists led a march, but most of the 20,000 marchers were white.

        http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/antiwar-protests-held-in-new-york-and-san-francisco

        Reply
      • Greg

         /  January 22, 2017

        Completely agree. Wow. Was packed in like sardines for hours and everyone was still happy and civil and even clapped for the police who joined us for selfies on occasion with the crowd. Knew it was not a man’s march when we were huddled at the urinals in the Smithsonian museum and the rest of the bathroom filled up with women. Felt like the beginning of a movement.

        Reply
        • The energy is there. The organization is there. We just need to turn this into positive political outcomes the world over.

    • X miller

       /  January 22, 2017

      Trump’s stellar linguistic skills have added yet another awesome word to the English language, and Steve Brooks Austin’s YouTube video puts it to good use. Everyone here should watch this and forward it to a Trumpster friend or relative.
      Super-callous-racist-fascist-extra-braggadocious. Bigly

      Reply
  36. Genomik

     /  January 21, 2017

    California is doubling down against Trump!

    “California released an ambitious plan to cut the state’s output of heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions on Friday, the same day that newly-minted Trump administration signaled it will undo federal U.S. carbon regulations.
    California’s plan details how it will achieve its goal of cutting emissions 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, which state air regulators called the most ambitious target in North America.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/20/california-unveils-sweeping-plan-to-combat-climate-change.html

    Reply
    • Fantastic! Would be nice if we could get every blue state to go along with it.

      I can see the whole emissions problem turning into a huge legal entanglement pretty soon. The clean air folks are lawyering up at the moment. Plus we have the children’s lawsuit and various other lawsuits aimed at the federal government’s failure to protect the social welfare in not working hard enough to address climate change. Once SLR gets going, I can see even more lawsuits along similar lines.

      Reply
  37. Eric Thurston

     /  January 21, 2017

    I got a picture of the Rockettes performing at Trump’s inauguration. (sorry, I couldn’t help myself)

    //embedr.flickr.com/assets/client-code.js

    Reply
  38. Cate

     /  January 21, 2017

    Reply
  39. Andy_in_SD

     /  January 21, 2017

    Well, we’re supposed to get walloped starting Sunday morning, 2 to 3″ of rain. That is a lot for this area. I went around the property this morning, ground is saturated so I made sure drainage is good. By Monday, we’ll have recorded over 10″ of rain in ~3 months. That is what we (used to) normally see in a year.

    Reply
  40. Cate

     /  January 22, 2017

    http://climatenewsnetwork.net/westerners-urged-reduce-carbon-footprint/

    “Top UK climate scientist says global carbon emissions could be cut by a third within a year if well-off westerners changed their lifestyle. Kevin Anderson, professor of energy and climate change at Manchester University, in the UK, says a major reduction in personal air travel is a key starting point.
    More than half of the carbon dioxide pollution that causes a large part of global warming comes from the 10% best-off people on the planet, he argues.
    “Let’s be clear about this. If the top 10(%) high emitters – people like you and me and others – if we reduce our carbon footprint just to the level of the average European, it would be a one-third cut in global emissions.”

    The top 10% of emitters will have to find alternatives to frequent flying and stop buying larger cars and more and bigger houses.

    Reply
    • Go vegan, avoid air travel, add solar or switch to a renewable power provider, get rid of one car, get an electric car, bike, live in a smaller house, grow your own veggies, walk, eat local and you can cut your personal emissions by 60 to 90 percent.

      On an individual level, air travel is a big emitter. Governments can help to reduce this impact by adding a carbon tax to air travel and by subsidizing biofuels for air travel. Individuals can just flat avoid it. Global carbon emissions from air travel are about 6 percent of the total. But the portion is growing and we could be looking at 15-30 percent in a few decades.

      It’s worth noting that this is a mass-behavior/systemic problem and witch hunting specific individuals RE air travel is a wedge issue that tends to be highly counter-productive.

      Reply
  41. Cate

     /  January 22, 2017

    It’s going to hit the food supply here in North America, probably when there will be billions more mouths to feed on the planet. Irrigation and genetic modification appear to offer less than reliable solutions so far. The easiest adaptation may be moving crops northwards.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/u-s-crop-harvests-could-suffer-with-climate-change/

    “Scientists believe that the spike in average temperatures that is widely predicted by climate models for North America could hurt its agriculture sector. As the number of days that are hotter than 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) increases, they now predict, estimated future harvests of wheat, soybeans and corn could drop by 22 to 49 percent, depending on the variety of the crop…..
    Since a loss of water is the key problem that climate change could create for crops, the answer could lie in irrigation, something Elliott called a “key resiliency factor.” However, depending entirely on irrigation to curb crop losses could also be dangerous and unsustainable, he added.
    Some scientists are experimenting with ways to genetically modify crops that are more resilient to higher temperatures. However, this approach hasn’t demonstrated significant results so far and, according to Elliot, contains restrictions in terms of how much the plants can be altered. He sees the most likely adaptation strategy as being a northward shift of traditional crop belts.”

    Reply
    • That is a considerably higher loss prediction than what I’ve seen previously. It’s nice to see that some of these researchers are taking this issue seriously.

      Reply
    • Drought is a very serious hurdle to agriculture, but selecting plant varieties to withstand hotter temperatures isn´t as far-fetched as the scientist cited in this article makes it to be. If apples can be a succesful commercial crop in Bahia (medium anual temperature 25C, reaching over 30C easily, never ever snowing, rarely having temps that are less than 15C), and varieties of wheat are now being sow in Mato Grosso do Sul (same as Bahia, but wetter)… seriously, those are not transgenic varieties, just good old artificial selection.

      There are limits, of course (we´ll never have sugar maple plantations in Brasil), and those plants would be different varieties from what people is mostly used to, but agriculture can adapt *if given resources* in somewhat fast time. Embrapa normally takes 15-30 years to develop new heat resistent commercial varieties of plants, and though the changes in temperature are going faster now, it´s still possible to keep up in this particular race.

      Developing new varieties of plants and changing areas where they´re recommended to be sow also needs a lot of resources devoted to agricultural education. I don´t known how it is up there, but one of the greatest hurdles here in Brasil is to convince rural folk (from small holders to big agribusiness) that they shouldn´t be planting what their grandfathers did, the way their grandfathers did. That´s where I fear food crashes mostly. How fast agriculturists adapt to climate change will be the big question, not if there are plants that can withstand the heat or not. But once one or two popular players (not necessarily big, but well-known in the place) are planting a new variety or kind of plant and succedding, change comes fast.

      Basically, I do believe that the corn-belt and the cotton-belt will move (and remember soil is also in question, not only temperatures). But unless the South of the USA gets too hot for human habitation, I doubt agricultural areas there will be complety abandoned. You guys will only have to develop a taste for manioc (won´t be too difficult, it´s delicious. Like a crispier potato).

      Reply
  42. June

     /  January 22, 2017

    In the spirit of today’s marches…excellent piece by Bill Mckibben on the need to resist Trump and his deplorables

    It’s Time to Stand Up for the Climate – And for Civilization

    https://www.wired.com/2017/01/stand-up-for-the-climate-and-civilization/?utm_content=buffer4d715&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Reply
  43. Hilary

     /  January 22, 2017

    In 2017 New Zealand will celebrate the 60th anniversary of Scott Base, one of the oldest research facilities located in the international territory of Antarctica. To mark the occasion, Antarctica New Zealand will host a first-of-its-kind event on ice, broadcast around the world: TEDxScottBase.
    TEDxScottBase is an extraordinary and unusual event, filmed on the ice in front of a small live audience. But Antarctica is a global community, and we want you to be part of the global conversation.
    So we’re broadcasting the entire event on the Internet, at three different times to hit every timezone on the planet.

    http://www.tedxscottbase.com/how-to-watch/
    Times for live broadcasts here or you can watch clips later. A wide range of speakers have been flown to the Ice for this

    Reply
  44. utoutback

     /  January 22, 2017

    Over 1,000 for Bend, OR Women’s March today!
    I’m not swure this will work, but here’s a try at a photo:

    jpeg&filename=20170121_110924.jpg

    Reply
  45. Cate

     /  January 22, 2017

    The Guardian on that Friday spectacle: “…a foretaste of serious ructions to come…..Trump cannot deliver much of what he pledges. That may yet prove to be his mortal weakness….”
    (This editorial overflows with the delicious excoriation that the British press can serve up so well.)

    We live in hope.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/22/observer-view-donald-trump-inauguration

    Reply
  46. Abel Adamski

     /  January 22, 2017

    Meanwhile the Greg Palast Investigative video is still available for streaming

    http://www.gregpalast.com/join-naacp-voter-fund-facebook-live-broadcast-film-trump-stole/

    The Best Democracy Money Can Buy: A Tale of Billionaires & Ballot Bandits, follows my crew’s undercover investigations for Rolling Stone and BBC-TV.

    Reply
    • Given the outpouring of resistance to Trump, I wonder more and more if the voter suppression, vote-nullification issue has moved from systemic to endemic. Palast is one of the only journalists to cover this serious threat to our democracy. I would think that more investigative reporters would follow his lead and start digging. If the problem is as big and wide ranging as Palast hints, then there are a number of republican wins that are likely illegal and illegitimate. If not, we need that clarity too — as rigged election memes can also be quite destructive to democratic order.

      Reply
  47. Cate

     /  January 22, 2017

    http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/39176-american-carnage-the-obscenity-of-trump-s-inauguration

    William Rivers Pitt in Truthout:

    The sound of protest, of millions of voices raised like…..”An angry ocean chewing on a distant beach. Not so distant as all that, actually. Donald J. Trump is president, but the growl of that ocean will never be far from him now. What happens from here on out will be as much up to the resistance as it will be to Trump and the Congress he cowed. Nothing is over. This has only just begun.”

    Reply
    • We have a huge opportunity here. Let’s make sure we get it right. We should be very careful to make this about values — the core values of liberal democracies — and not to tip toward harmful extremisms. We can push back the right wing ideologues that have hurt us so much and get civilization on a much better, more helpful, more inclusive track. We can deal with climate issues, inequality issues, harmful consumption issues, and work for real progress. We should stay hopeful and clear-eyed as we rightfully act to resist an extraordinarily damaging set of agendas.

      Reply
  48. Jeremy in Wales

     /  January 22, 2017

    Just thought I would follow up what Shawn Redmond found last week(?) with the melt water ponds on the Amery Ice Shelf in Antarctica. The ponds are more like large lakes, one seemingly over 20km in length.
    Hope this link works
    https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines(hidden)&t=2017-01-22&z=3&v=1597440,619008,1947136,797696
    Scroll the image back to the begining of December 2016 and there are no ponds.
    The melting seems to be on the inland section surrounded by mountains so possibly is caused by föhn winds or do the ponds represent the same sort of melting that led to Larsen B disintergrating, could the same happen on such a constrained landlocked ice shelf?

    Reply
  49. Jeremy in Wales

     /  January 22, 2017

    https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines(hidden)&t=2017-01-22&z=3&v=1576448,636160,1926144,814848

    Hope this works

    Reply
  50. Jeremy in Wales

     /  January 22, 2017

    https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines(hidden)&t=2017-01-22&z=3&v=1576448,636160,1926144,814848

    or this shortened link (I might get this right eventually)

    http://go.nasa.gov/2k5r7sP

    Reply
  51. Matt

     /  January 23, 2017

    On behalf of my family I would like to thank all of my fellow Scribblers who participated in the protest rallies throughout the US (and those who made it else where).
    We are at a critical time socially on this planet, without firm resistance via public demonstration the rise of fascism will again dominate the west 😦
    If we let ourselves get back into this position, Climate change will be driven further down the priority list (if that’s possible), to be replaced with racism, self interest and virtual police states.
    Keep up the fight, you will need more than a few rallies of this magnitude to bring this Fascist unstuck.
    Again my deepest gratitude to you all (would have been nice to have a rally event anywhere near where I live :)).

    Reply
    • +1

      I’m really amazed to see so many people participating in these rallies and political actions. You guys give me hope that we can do this. That we can start to turn the tide against all the trouble that’s coming.

      Reply
  52. Matt

     /  January 23, 2017

    Also while I am on the soapbox, it is so nice to see a definite change of tone in the media reporting coming from the US (in relation to outright lies coming from the White House about crowd sizes). Seems that maybe some in the upper echelons may be starting to draw some parallels?
    From your own US Holocaust Memorial Museum “…it also allowed the state to seize the printing plants and equipment of the Communist and Social Democratic Parties, which were often turned over directly to the Nazi Party. In the following months, the Nazis established control or exerted influence over independent press organs”
    It seems incredibly strange to me that these media Executives have been willing to flirt with the likes of another Hitler.
    There has been a lot of emphasis in reporting I have heard about how “the administration has guaranteed that no one from the press will be singled out and banned from reporting from the White House”. Seems to me that the idea has already been spread and there are some very nervous media organisations??
    Remembering the GOP have control over your entire political system…..

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  January 23, 2017

      I must admit I have terrified of what this administration is going to do. And all signs so far have only increased my terror, with our transformation into 1984 appearing to be very real. The first official statements from the Trump administration have been outright lies that are so plainly visible it’s hard to believe that Spicer could utter that bullshit and keep a straight face. If they’ll tell us it’s sunny in the middle of a freaking rainstorm than there is NOTHING they won’t lie about.

      Reply
    • IBM produced the tabulation machines that were used in the Holocaust. It’s well known that there were many Nazi sympathizers and supporters in U.S. big business circles. We’ve always suffered due to their influence. Trump has just brought this dark mark over America to the fore. Made it more visible. I suppose it’s good that we are facing it down now. But it’s tough to overstate the threat that it represents.

      Reply
  53. Vic

     /  January 23, 2017

    The North Dakota National Guard has deployed two ‘Avenger’ surface to air missile launchers to the site of the DAPL protest.

    http://www.ecowatch.com/dapl-trump-missile-launch-2203044415.html

    Reply
    • Wow. WTF??? I suppose it’s to deal with the ‘threat’ posed by camera drones?? And on behalf of the harmful fossil fuel special interests…. All the more reason for more and more people to keep supporting this protest.

      Worth noting that launching a javelin — the missile mounted in the Avenger air defense modules — costs about 80,000 dollars. To say that such a launch would be a tremendous waste of money simply to take down a camera drone costing 100 to 300 dollars is a pretty huge understatement. And it’s an atrocity that such a system, which was designed to defend the American people from harm, is being used to enforce harm on a local population as well as upon every American and person living in the world by worsening climate change impacts.

      Reply
      • islandraider

         /  January 23, 2017

        Firing those things would be expensive, both from a financial perspective, but even more so from a political/legal/moral perspective. Shall we make a donation of cheap camera drones to the Water Protectors? Swarm them & make them fire it over & over…

        Reply
    • I´m flabbergasted. You guys are supposed to be that exemplary democracy, the ideal the rest of the world strives to be (well, not Sweden, or anywhere in Europe, actually, but in the 3rd world, the “american way” is still kind of venered), the place where citizens are valued most of all, to the point that sometimes one American live is considered more valuable than the life of a 3rd world native (not by americans, where that could be excused, but for people born and raised in the 3rd world).

      A shady election where the winner didn´t get the most votes and that was maybe hacked? That can be, and some extreme right are even using that as an example to defend changing laws to have districtal vote here. Can be believed, even if it´s lamented.

      But militar grade equipment being used against US citizens (even if it´s just against drones… until an unfortunate error in aiming…)?!!!

      Reply
      • Umbrios,
        As an American brought up to believe just those things, you are breaking my heart.

        Reply
        • Sorry 😦 But it’s still hard to believe, arms from your military being used against your own people. I trust the photo, just… what world are we now?

  54. Greg

     /  January 23, 2017

    Deadly tornadoes strike South; ‘high risk’ for more as freak storm approaches East Coast. Massive damage already and at least 18 deaths. Few points very high and weather alerts coming out are rare.

    “The responsible storm system is unusually strong for winter and much more characteristic of spring.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/01/22/deadly-tornadoes-strike-south-high-risk-for-more-as-freak-storm-approaches-east-coast

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  January 23, 2017

      Dew points. And NOAA weather alerts are exceptional for this time of year and are their highest warning levels.

      Reply
    • We have a gale warning here in MD. Earlier this morning, I heard the loud rumble of thunder. We’ll probably get 2 inches of rainfall today.

      Reply
  55. Vic

     /  January 23, 2017

    A powerful “weather bomb” has hit New Zealand, cutting off rural towns, flooding major roads and dumping snow on to bare alpine ski fields at what should be the height of the southern hemisphere summer.

    https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/585ee64b9096bc7a6addeb0d1d8523331a4e1133/0_191_2816_1689/master/2816.jpg?w=1920&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=4acc850281b81c50656bf125e6a1981f

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/23/new-zealand-weather-bomb-summer-snow-flooding

    Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  January 23, 2017

      Here on the other side of the world (Connecticut) it is the middle of Winter, and the ski slopes are losing what’s left of the man made snow. It has been remarkably mild, with nighttime lows warmer than our “normal” highs. This past weekend I was out running in shorts and a short sleeve shirt, even at 9 at night it was in the 50sF (our normal low/high for this time of year is 17/34F. Today we are expecting a Nor’Easterwith heavy rains and very strong winds, but no snow.

      Here in my neck of the woods we used to have reliable seasons. While the weather would change pretty dramatically at times, (a hallmark of New England weather) those were relatively rare events, and not the norm. Now all we see is unusual weather. It’s either cold, sometimes very cold with Arctic air getting pushed down from the north, or it’s incredibly mild. We almost never have “normal” weather anymore. We used to have a snowmobile club, with snowmobile trails in my hometown of Bristol in the 60s. Now it’s not even cold enough at night for ski areas to make snow. A remarkable change in just a few decades.

      Reply
  56. Cate

     /  January 23, 2017

    Bill McKibben, thank you. Always spot on.

    “Donald Trump’s ascension to the presidency is a stunning blow to hopes for avoiding the worst impacts of global warming. But a broad-based, grassroots movement committed to cutting emissions and promoting clean energy must continue and intensify – the stakes are simply too high to give up.”

    http://e360.yale.edu/features/with-the-ascent-of-trump-is-it-game-over-for-the-climate-fight

    Reply
    • McKibben is dead on correct. If there’s a time to stand up and fight for a liveable climate for human civilization — it is now. We have a very real opportunity here to coordinate with other groups whose issues are also coming under assault due to Trump and Republicans coming into power. We all need to join together and make a big push against what’s happening. We should not just quietly go along with the nonsense and abuse.

      Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  January 23, 2017

      Cate, the fight with what we euphemistically call ‘the Right’, has ALWAYS been a fight between Good and Evil, and Life and Death. In the past it has been mostly over class and economics and the Right’s insatiable greed and desire to grind others into the dust, exploiting them to increase their own wealth, and destroying the natural world in the process. When you contemplate the glorious diversity of Life on Earth that capitalist ‘development’ has obliterated over the last few hundred years, and particularly since WW2, it is simply ghastly. And all that destruction has NOT lifted up humanity, made poverty disappear or ushered in a Golden Age of human amity, but instead has only massively enriched a tiny parasitic elite, to such an extent that a mere eight ultra-parasites now control as much wealth as the bottom 3.6 BILLION!!
      Moreover ‘peace’ between societies and within them, is further away than ever, and the threat of thermo-nuclear war looms ever larger. Entire societies like Iraq, Syria and Libya can be reduced to body-strewn rubble in the name of ‘Western moral values’, and the entire process is drowned in lies and hypocrisy.
      And what drives this process of slow motion (but rapidly accelerating)auto-genocide? Nothing but capitalism, that cancer-mimicking process that DEMANDS endless growth on a finite planet, and which seeks to turn all that is living into the lifeless mess of money. Moreover, critiques of capitalism are verboten, more or less. The system drives on to destruction, but is as unquestionable as the rising and setting of the Sun. This will be the killer contradiction with Trumpismo, when the fools that voted for him discover that his ‘solutions’ will only screw them further, while destroying the environment with that fanaticism of the true idiot ignoramus.
      We know precisely what is needed to save humanity, even now, but to do so, rich, insatiably greedy, parasites would have to be disempowered and required to ‘take losses’. They could even re-invest their ill-gotten gelt in renewable energy and other ecology restoring activities, but they refuse to. Instead they insist on driving on to destruction, no matter what the science says. Capitalism empowers the worst among us, and they use their money to make it impregnable, and its neoplastic devastation unavoidable. That, and the creatures who control it, is our real enemy. All talk of ‘reforming’ capitalism, or relying on the few relatively sane billionaires, must end in wasted effort and tears. To survive we must upend the whole system and build one based on the preservation of Life on Earth, NOT profit maximisation.

      Reply
  57. Cate

     /  January 23, 2017

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2017/jan/20/writing-about-climate-change-my-professional-detachment-has-finally-turned-to-panic

    A climate journalist reflects on how his impending fatherhood has been a major factor in changing his perspective on climate change in 2016.

    “While I can’t say with confidence that bringing a child into the world we are creating is the right thing to do, I maintain a hope that those children will find a way to undo what we have imposed on them. And if nothing else, it has given me a renewed passion for to do my part in fighting for a just world for future generations.”

    Reply
  58. wili

     /  January 23, 2017

    http://www.newsnation.in/world-news/catastrophe-declared-in-central-chile-due-to-massive-forest-fires-article-158637.html

    “Catastrophe declared in central Chile due to massive forest fires:
    Authorities declared a state of catastrophe in central Chile as crews fought vast forest fires described as the worst in decades.”

    “Authorities declared a state of catastrophe in central Chile as crews fought vast forest fires described as the worst in decades.

    More than 450 square kilometers (175 square miles) were ablaze in the O’Higgins region—an area roughly the size of Vienna or Tel Aviv.

    As fire and emergency crews were brought in, officials evacuated 200 people from the mostly rural area south of the capital Santiago. Some 30 homes were affected in Cardenal Caro and Colchagua provinces, the National Emergency Office (ONEMI) said on Saturday.

    A local ONEMI official, Josefina Lopez, told AFP that no one was hurt but there was economic damage.

    Agriculture Minister Carlos Furche told national radio the disaster was “a sort of earthquake” for the region.

    President Michelle Bachelet took time out of hosting a visit by French counterpart Francois Hollande to monitor the situation and declare the state of catastrophe, which allows soldiers to be used to help battle the fire. A farming emergency was also decreed.

    Bachelet said France was offering help and she was also reaching out to other countries…”

    Reply
  59. coloradobob

     /  January 23, 2017

    Forests ‘held their breath’ during global warming hiatus, research shows

    The international study examined the full extent to which these vital ecosystems performed as a carbon sink from 1998-2012 – the most recent recorded period of global warming slowdown.
    The researchers, including Professor Pierre Friedlingstein from the University of Exeter, demonstrated that the global carbon sink—where carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere and stored in the natural environment – was particularly robust during this 14 year period.

    Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-01-forests-held-global-hiatus.html#jCp

    Reply
  60. coloradobob

     /  January 23, 2017

    SNPP/VIIRS
    2017/022
    01/22/2017
    19:06 UTC
    Fires in central Chile

    Reply
  61. coloradobob

     /  January 23, 2017

    More than 120 architecture and design firms from Illinois signed an open letter last week to President Donald Trump pressing the new president on climate change and energy use. The letter originated from Architects Advocate, a group started in July by four partners at Chicago-based Krueck+Sexton Architects. The group has not received a response from the Trump administration yet.

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/data/ct-architects-advocate-letter-htmlstory.html

    Reply
  62. coloradobob

     /  January 23, 2017

    One dead as rain wreaks havoc in southern Italy

    In some areas, over 200 mililitres of rain fell in less than 12 hours – the map below shows just how much rain has fallen across the country.

    http://www.thelocal.it/20170123/one-dead-as-rain-wreaks-havoc-in-southern-italy

    Reply
  63. Not about the climate, but good news in the “social justice” camp. WHO allows imports of generic drugs. That will allow poor countries to offer better healthcare for their citizens. This article by Reuters is a bit meh (it doesn´t mention, for example, that this ends a 20 stand-off between pharma companies and governments, that until this it was legal for countries to arrest medicine cargos from ships going from Brasil or India to Africa, Southeast Asia and Polynesia, that several of those shipments were destroyed by authorities in Holland and the USA, etc…), but it´s in English:
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-medicines-idUSKBN1571IV

    Reply
  64. coloradobob

     /  January 23, 2017

    We’re now breaking global temperature records once every three years
    Denial and “alternative facts” haven’t stopped the Earth from warming to record-shattering levels

    If you think that seems like a lot of record-breaking hot years, you’re right. The streak of three consecutive record hot years is unprecedented since measurements began in 1880. In the 35 years between 1945 and 1979, there were no record-breakers. In the 37 years since 1980, there have been 12. The video below illustrates all of the record-breaking years in the Nasa global surface temperature record since 1880.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/jan/23/were-now-breaking-global-temperature-records-once-every-three-years

    Reply
  65. coloradobob

     /  January 23, 2017

    From a TED Talk by the Scripps Oceanographic Institute professor Jeremy Jackson (a marine ecologist) regarding overfishing.

    It’s not just the fish, though, that are disappearing. Industrial fishing uses big stuff, big machinery.

    We use nets that are 20 miles long. We use longlines that have one million or two million hooks. And we trawl, which means to take something the size of a tractor trailer truck that weighs thousands and thousands of pounds, put it on a big chain, and drag it across the sea floor to stir up the bottom and catch the fish.

    Think of it as being kind of the bulldozing of a city or of a forest, because it clears it away. And the habitat destruction is unbelievable. This is a photograph, a typical photograph, of what the continental shelves of the world look like.

    You can see the rows in the bottom, the way you can see the rows in a field that has just been plowed to plant corn. What that was, was a forest of sponges and coral, which is a critical habitat for the development of fish.

    What it is now is mud, and the area of the ocean floor that has been transformed from forest to level mud, to parking lot, is equivalent to the entire area of all the forests that have ever been cut down on all of the earth in the history of humanity.

    We’ve managed to do that in the last 100 to 150 years.

    Reply
  66. coloradobob

     /  January 23, 2017

    Survey: Record Number of Americans
    ‘Very Worried’ About Global Warming

    “Despite the election of a president who has described global warming as a hoax, Americans are increasingly convinced global warming is happening and are more worried about it,” said lead researcher Anthony Leiserowitz of Yale University. “This indicates that on this issue, there is a growing gap between the views of the American public and the incoming Trump administration.”
    http://environment.yale.edu/news/article/survey-record-number-of-americans-very-worried-about-global-warming/

    Reply
  67. coloradobob

     /  January 23, 2017

    The latest storms to hit California have broken records.

    According to the National Weather Service, monster surf on Saturday set a new wave height record for the Monterey Bay: 34.12 feet.
    The previous record was 32.8 feet, set in 2008.

    http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-live-winter-weather-california-storms-generate-34-foot-wave-a-new-1485138882-htmlstory.html

    Reply
  68. utoutback

     /  January 24, 2017

    Here’s a well done lecture on “Charting irreversible climate change with Jason – 3” from the NASA video collection:

    It is fairly comprehensive and covers a lot of what is discussed at this site in a way that is very clear for a general audience.

    Reply
  69. David Wernecke

     /  July 12, 2017

    The global warming nay Sayers will doom life on our planet.

    Reply
  1. NASA Data Shows the Rate of Global Warming is Accelerating — 2016 is Third Consecutive Hottest Year on Record | GarryRogers Nature Conservation
  2. On the Contrary » Blog Archive » Rational Thinking

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