The Permanent Global Coral Bleaching Event

Despite La Nina, Ocean surfaces have not cooled enough to end the worst global coral bleaching event on record. What this means is that many reefs, including the Great Barrier Reef, are again under a rising risk of bleaching and mortality for the coming months. This is unheard of. Never before has a mass coral bleaching event lasted for so long or extended through the period of natural variability related ocean surface cooling called La Nina. Perhaps more ominously, the global coral bleaching and die off that began in 2014 may now be a practically permanent ocean feature of the presently destabilized world climate system.

Cool La Nina is Over

According to NOAA, the periodic cooling of ocean surfaces in the Pacific called La Nina is now over. And since La Nina brings with it a variable related low point of broader Earth surface temperatures, after a few months lag, we can expect the globe to start to warm up again.

sea-surface-temperature-anomalies-feb-9-pacific

(The above map shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean on February 9 of 2017. Presently SSTs over the entire Pacific range from about -1.5 C below average to +5 C above average. And as you can see, the Ocean is considerably warmer than normal, despite La Nina. Over the next 1-2 years, this is likely the coolest the Pacific will get. In just one decade’s time, under human-forced warming, it will take a very strong La Nina and a strongly negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation to produce similar sea surface temperatures. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

Problem is, the Earth is still ridiculously warm, despite La Nina. Temperatures, driven inexorably higher by fossil fuel burning, have probably bottomed out at about 1 degrees Celsius hotter than 1880s averages during December, January and February of 2016-2017.

What this means is that the likely range for annual global temperatures over the next 5 years will be about 1 to 1.3 C above 1880s averages. These readings are so high (the warmest in 115,000 years) and have risen so much, in such a geologically short span of time, that many of the world’s more sensitive species are now being pushed out of their habitats and are undergoing considerable heat-related mortality events.

Great Barrier Reef Under Threat From Bleaching for Second Year in a Row

Perhaps the most obvious of these horrendous fossil-fuel burning spurred instances is the global coral bleaching event that began in 2014. More ominously, it now appears that surface temperatures in the range of 1 C hotter than 1880s and above may well be enough to push the world into a permanent or near-permanent state of global coral bleaching and mortality. What this means is that each year, from now on, there is a considerable risk of widespread coral bleaching. It also means that reefs impacted by bleaching will tend to have shorter cool periods in which to recover.

global-coral-bleaching-forecast

(NOAA’s 60 percent certainty map shows very widespread coral bleaching expected over the next few months. Presently, bleaching is predicted for the region of the Great Barrier Reef. But other reef systems [see below] fall under higher risks for considerable reef mortality events in the current forecast. Image source: NOAA.)

For February through May of 2017, very warm and warming sea surface temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere are expected to produce extraordinarily widespread risks of coral bleaching. Many areas are predicted to see the highest coral bleaching alert level NOAA has a measure for.

According to NOAA:

Multiple coral reef regions are already experiencing Alert Level 1 bleaching stress (associated with significant coral bleaching). Alert Level 2 bleaching stress (associated with widespread coral bleaching and significant mortality) is expected in the Northern Cook Islands, Southern Cook Islands, the Samoas, Wallis & Futuna, Northern Tonga, Southern Tonga, the Society Archipelago, and the Austral Islands in the next 1-4 weeks. Alert Level 1 bleaching conditions are also expected in the Tuamotu Archipelago in the next 1-4 weeks and in Tuvalu in the next 5-8 weeks.

The prediction map also includes the potential for high alert levels (level 1) for sections of the Great Barrier Reef which last year experienced its worst coral bleaching event on record. Needless to say, a second year of bleaching would be a devastating additional blow to a critical ocean life support system and one of Australia’s priceless national treasures.

Links:

Global Coral Bleaching Event Status

Earth Nullschool

NOAA: La Nina is Over

Hat tip to George Hayduke

 

Leave a comment

332 Comments

  1. climatehawk1

     /  February 9, 2017

    Tweet scheduled.

    Reply
  2. Erik Frederiksen

     /  February 9, 2017

    Corals are crucial habitat for the development of fish that around a billion people depend on for protein.

    Here’s the Scripps Oceanographic Institute Marine Ecologist Jeremy Jackson speaking recently:

    “It’s not just the fish, though, that are disappearing. Industrial fishing uses big stuff, big machinery. We use nets that are 20 miles long. We use longlines that have one million or two million hooks. And we trawl, which means to take something the size of a tractor trailer truck that weighs thousands and thousands of pounds, put it on a big chain, and drag it across the sea floor to stir up the bottom and catch the fish. Think of it as being kind of the bulldozing of a city or of a forest, because it clears it away. And the habitat destruction is unbelievable. This is a photograph, a typical photograph, of what the continental shelves of the world look like. You can see the rows in the bottom, the way you can see the rows in a field that has just been plowed to plant corn. What that was, was a forest of sponges and coral, which is a critical habitat for the development of fish. What it is now is mud, and the area of the ocean floor that has been transformed from forest to level mud, to parking lot, is equivalent to the entire area of all the forests that have ever been cut down on all of the earth in the history of humanity. We’ve managed to do that in the last 100 to 150 years.”

    Reply
  3. coloradobob

     /  February 9, 2017

    Sweet Jesus.

    Reply
  4. Matt

     /  February 9, 2017

    So in the previous thread there was some reporting of temps here in OZ… The hottest recorded yesterday was Tarcoola in South Australia topping out at 48.2C, waiting anxiously for todays readings. Most of the expected hot areas for today are sitting at around 40C by 10am this morning (which is really 9am as we are in “daylight savings” time at present.

    Reply
  5. Suzanne

     /  February 10, 2017

    What they hell is wrong with our species..that we continue to destroy our habitats? Is it a death wish? I just don’t get it.

    Latest Great Barrier Reef Threat: Coal Dust..at CS Monitor…
    http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2017/0208/Latest-Great-Barrier-Reef-threat-coal-dust

    February 8, 2017 —Black coal dust washing up on Australian shores near the Great Barrier Reef is making environmentalists nervous.

    Complaints have triggered an investigation focusing on nearby coal port Hay Point, which exports tens of millions of tons a year to markets all over the world. However, authorities say they can’t yet confirm whether Hay Point is the source of the leak. Coal dust can directly kill coral and damage sea life, according to scientists, but it’s the burning of coal that indirectly poses the greatest risk to Australia’s most famous heritage site.

    Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  February 10, 2017

      Suzanne, some ‘human beings’ are psychopaths. Under capitalism, they are in control. Their dominance has grown since Gorbachev’s surrender to avert nuclear war (only postponed, plainly), and, in a type of twisted Darwinian process, unnatural selection has produced ever more extreme specimens, with selective pressures provided by hard Right business interests and their bribes- sorry, I meant ‘political contributions’. In fact, they can transmute quickly, as our pretend puppet PM Trumble has done, from seemingly ‘liberal’ and ‘enlightened’ plutocrats, into snarling, slavering, coal-worshippers and enemies of renewable energy, almost overnight, if they see that to be in their self-interest. Would you have expected a Tramp to become US President twenty years ago?

      Reply
      • Suzanne

         /  February 10, 2017

        I still can’t wrap my brain around the fact that such an amoral, greedy, narcissist was elected. I truly believed that people would vote no against such an “indecent”…unqualified person.
        But you are right…we have had decades of Crony Capitalism…and a mantra of “Greed is Good”…and “More is better”….so of course, a Monster like the Lunatic is the outcome.

        I really do feel at times like I am living is some kind of Twilight Zone episode. There are many mornings when I wake up almost in a panic when I realize the “full reality” of how dire things are with the Lunatic and his Evil Regime in charge. It feels so unreal…

        I was listening to a SiriusXM political radio show this week, where most of the listeners are a good mix of Left, Right, and Independents. The host is a Center Right guy..but not a raving madman. I do try to get out of my “Left Wing” echo chamber so I can understand where others are coming from. What surprised me was the host asked on a scale of 1 to 10…what was your level of anxiety since Trump won? Shockingly…every single person…including the host…was at a 6 or higher…even the very calm, centered host.
        I found this very telling…I do believe at some level, whether consciously or subconsciously people know we are at a cross roads. I believe the election of the Lunatic is really tapping into and bringing to the surface the dangerous situation our species and planet are in. So, maybe..just maybe…what is happening politically…will somehow shake us out of our complacency and propel us into action. I surely hope so..because if not now..I don’t think there is much chance for our survival.

        Reply
        • mulga mumblebrain

           /  February 10, 2017

          We were at the cross-roads in 1988 or thereabouts, when the alarm was sounded, and the rich owners of society chose denial instead to protect their precious trillions, rather than our children and grand-children. I think that they thought that they hasd decades before the proverbial hit the fan, and they would be safely dead. Mind you, it has been clear for fifteen years or so that the IPCC Reports have been utterly useless, even aside from the dumbing down needed to reach consensus with pariah states like Saudi Arabia and Australia. As for those still denying everything, even now-well humans do not come any worse, but is it really that different from the behaviour of the peddlers of drugs, junk food, tobacco, asbestos, chemical poisons etc. The system rewards and promotes the worst among humanity, and has had its inevitable outcome.

        • Cate

           /  February 10, 2017

          Suzanne, have you read “The Road”? I just finished it, or I think I did—the last few pages were a bit of a blur.

        • Suzanne

           /  February 10, 2017

          Cate…Yes, years ago when it came out. Just remember it being quite depressing…Though it might be worth revisiting in 2017. What do you think?

        • Cate

           /  February 10, 2017

          Suzanne, yes, reread it. Rereading something you read years ago is always good, I find. You bring so much more life experience to the text, and it reveals even more of its secrets…..

          I was not so much depressed by it—–perhaps we are more accustomed to post-apocalyptic scenarios now, more used to the prospect of possible extinction? (and if so, that’s depressing in itself!). I found it very emotionally draining and the punch in the guts at the end left me weeping helplessly, but….but…it is not utterly negative. There is a crack of light there, the love between them, the fire they carry within—the ending was, if not entirely hopeful, at least still clinging, if only by the fingernails…

        • Suzanne

           /  February 10, 2017

          Cate..Will definitely revisit The Road.. You might want to check out a movie that I think has relevance now..”Children of Men”. I think it is on Netflix or Amazon.

        • Cate

           /  February 10, 2017

          Thanks, Suzanne, I’ll check it out. 🙂

  6. Matt

     /  February 10, 2017

    Marree airport (SA) at 42.3C by 11am Hay airport (NSW) 43C by 11:30am

    Reply
    • Matt

       /  February 10, 2017

      Hay airport now 44.5C at midday, daylight savings time….

      Reply
      • Matt

         /  February 10, 2017

        Hay Airport (NSW) 44.9C 12:30pm, Woomera (SA) 43.6C 12pm

        Reply
        • Matt

           /  February 10, 2017

          Hay Airport now 47.1C 2:30pm Marree Airport 45.3C 2pm

        • Suzanne

           /  February 10, 2017

          Thanks for those real time updates. Staggering heat. How are people coping?

    • Nancy

       /  February 10, 2017

      I have the same questions as Suzanne – how are you coping? That’s 116 degrees F. I cannot imagine what it’s like. Of course, right now in New Hampshire, we are at 2 degrees below zero this morning. I can bundle up to go outside, but going outside when it’s 116 is deadly. It must be difficult to breathe.

      Reply
      • *Suzanne, sometimes if is hard for some people to breathe at 116 degees. In Phoenix most of us just take it nstride when we must be outside, but I am not minimizing the risks of being out in it, there are practical precautons to take especially if you have certain healthnproblems. Unfortunately, the heat problems will only get worse.
        2 degrees below zero sounds hard for me to breathe myself.

        Sheri

        Reply
  7. There was a report yesterday warning that the Great Barrier Reef may be dead within the next 20 years. There’ll come a time when what we do to Earth is completely overshadowed by what Earth does to us.

    “All the forces in nature that are the most powerful, are the most quiet.” – John Cumming

    Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  February 10, 2017

      These reports, if they aren’t speaking of the never-never of 2100, say ‘may be’, when it is 100% CERTAIN. Soft denialism is almost as disastrous as the hard, fanatical, total denialism.

      Reply
    • Under BAU FF burning 90 percent of all reefs won’t make it to 2050.

      Reply
  8. mulga mumblebrain

     /  February 10, 2017

    In Australia, last year’s Great Barrier Reef bleaching has been forgotten. The fake-stream media has consigned it to the ‘Memory Hole’, or denies it ever happened (the Murdoch machine, naturally). Meanwhile the Federal regime, by far the most floridly malevolent and incompetent, ever, here, and one dominated by proto-Trampistas, hugely encouraged by its triumph, has turned itself into a coal-worshipping cult.
    Now, one often wonders at the objects fetishised into religiously potent symbols but primitive groups. Why is this penis-gourd sacred, or this particular shrunken head of some long-dead ancestor? However the sudden and quite frantic, nay, hysterical, devotion of the regime to coal really tests ones powers of imagination and understanding. Fortunately, the answer to the sudden appearance of this sect, and its highly agitated acolytes, is simple to explain.
    But first, if I might digress, recent events in this sad, benighted, land might illuminate matters a deal. The Abbott/Trumble regime, furiously egged on by the Murdoch machine (with the rest of the fake-stream media in the baggage train)is constantly increasing the fervour of its attacks on renewable energy. Trumble, who once acknowledged the truth of our predicament, has now transmuted entirely into his predecessor Abbott, in order to keep power in a regime dominated by wannabe Tramps. The attack on renewable energy is relentless, and every disruption to electricity supply is blamed on renewables, and the ALP’s (in power in some states) ‘Leftwing fanaticism’ in aiming for 30% or 50% renewables by 2030 (Itself laughably inadequate).
    So it has become a Left versus Right fight, and, naturally, the reason for renewable ie climate destabilisation is TOTALLY ignored, in politics and the fake-stream media, who speak, as ever, with the one voice of their rich owners. Trumble apparently thinks he can run a winning election campaign (he has only a one-seat majority, and some bunyip Tramps are jumping ship, or threatening to do so, to even more insanely denialist parties)on the basis of power prices, appealing to the proles’ greed, stupidity and ignorance, always a winning formula, hereabouts.
    That increased power prices are well-established to be the result of profit-gouging by the privatised owners (they even do some classic Enron-style ‘market cornering’ to bid up prices to the stratosphere, all part of the sacred ‘Market Magic’ that we are ordered to worship), heavy with debt after their acquisitions, is ignored. It’s all the fault of the ‘wind-mills’ as Trumble called wind-turbines this week, using the denialist industry’s pet term, signalling his loyalty to King Coal. Trumble and his scabrous minions have all begun singing the praises of ‘clean coal’ friend of humanity, with a text taken straight from Murdoch and the coal industry. One particularly grotesque specimen, Morronson, the Treasurer, even brandished a lump of coal in Parliament, screeching, ‘What are you afraid of-it’s harmless’.
    Meanwhile the country swelters in an unprecedentedly deep and widespread heat wave, made worse in many places by high humidity flowing from the north, and high night-time temperatures. Intermittently savage storms with huge deluges and cyclonic winds produce flash-flooding and erosion. The North is awash, inundated over and over again, the Great Barrier Reef is about to bleach again, deadly poisonous jelly-fish like the irukandji migrate south, vegetable crops are fried, and the words ‘anthropogenic climate destabilisation’ or similar are strictly verboten in the fake-stream media, even when reporting the weather prodigies.
    In short, dear scribblers, if you reckon that you dwell in a madhouse where the inmates have taken over, I invite you to study the bedlam this country has descended into, Governed by lunatic cargo-cultists whose most prized ‘Precious’ treasure is coal-or should we say, the juicy cheques that come attached from an ever grateful fossil fuel industry. Poor fella my country.

    Reply
    • Matt

       /  February 10, 2017

      OMG Mulga, you have written word for word my despair at our current political situation in this country…

      Reply
    • Suzanne

       /  February 10, 2017

      I sometimes wonder if all this “right wing craziness” that seems to be taking over globally is some kind of subconscious death wish. That at some level people know how dire the situation is with CC, and are reacting with….”eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die” because it is easier than looking at what sacrifices in lifestyle would have to be made to fix the CC challenges. What else explains this full steam ahead denial and lack of action?
      I don’t know, but with each passing day it feels more and more like the greedy lunatics have truly taken over the global asylum. Do these 1%-ers and powerful in charge elites truly believe they are going to be immune to the catastrophic effects of CC? Are they that arrogant to believe that somehow their money and power will save them? It is lunacy.

      I often think of this quote by Albert Bartlett…
      “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” Throw our species greed into the mix and it does make for a destructive combination.

      Reply
      • Too many people. Too many guns. Too many food sources under threat.

        Reply
        • nwkilt

           /  February 11, 2017

          Too many puppies are being shot in the dark.
          Too many puppies are trained not to bark.
          At the sight of blood that must be spilled so that we may maintain
          Our oil fields.

      • Yes, I think subconscious hysterical denial of global warming is fueling the right wing craziness.

        Isolationism, nationalism, militarism, and xenophobia are natural human social responses to threat, but don’t work to fight the main cause of the subconscious threat – global warming.

        We’d be so much better off if we would just cooperate to change the technology of energy production away from fossil fuels. Lifestyle changes are not really necessary to save the planet, I think, just technological changes.

        The Trump Administration’s advocacy of clean coal could actually be a good thing, though, if the technology is applied to biomass and used to start putting carbon back underground., via BECCS (Bio-energy with Carbon Capture and Storage).

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage

        It’s no accident that the Trump supporters want to build a wall – they are subconsciously afraid of mass migration northward under the pressure of global warming.

        Most Latino immigrants are Central American or South American, and the real wall along our southern border up until now has been the southern border of Mexico, as Mexico has been cooperating to keep other immigrants out of the U.S.

        It’s hard for liberals and progressives to understand authoritarian followers. The given reason for their actions is not the real reason. The given reason is something logically silly but highly motivational, generally. The real reason is down the list of reasons somewhere, but is generally on the list, but cannot consciously be admitted because it is counter to dogma, or would involve admitting bad motivations.

        Really, seriously, I think that’s true – the given reason for their reactions is not the real reason.

        Reply
    • Mark in OZ

       /  February 10, 2017

      Well put Mulga! Is precisely how it ‘is’ now here. To our friends and family across the seas, watch carefully at what is unfolding as I anticipate the ‘behaviours’ of the ‘officials’ ( the A Gov’t) Mulga describes so well, will be copied soon across the globe.

      Due to our remote geographical location, far from the heavily populated areas of other regions (No America, Europe, Asia etc) which provide at least a reasonable light of awareness and vigilance to be directed upon day to day corporate / government activities, we’ve always struggled with a ‘ time delay’ (outbound / inbound) of what’s happening.

      This ‘window’ or grey zone has now been appropriated by ’empire’ who are increasingly worried that their immortality and power may be finite after all. They are ‘hissing’ terrifying instructions to their ‘front line’ members who will do anything but face the wrath of their masters; including what we are seeing today.

      For decades (centuries in some industries like mining) the mainly foreign owned company leviathans ( private and publically held) have had no trouble getting precisely what they have wanted by capturing the sitting government (both sides of the table).

      Dissatisfied with investment return that occurs with various ‘markets’ the current play is to use legislation and judiciary to enhance the bottom line.

      Our China led mining boom peaked in 2011 and has fallen hard; we are some of the most personally indebted people on the planet which has made our off shore owned banks the world’s most profitable. We’ve not had even a ‘whiff’ of economic recession for >25 years but we are quite unwell, economically and the financial crisis centres cannot cope with the volume of those who’ve reached their limit and are moments away from bankruptcy. The rivets of society are popping everywhere!

      The bizarre statements made in our parliament by our officials can only make sense if one accepts that ‘they’ are doing what they are damn well told by the power elite that holds their employment contracts, their career pathway and the whole of their soul. Anyone entering this ‘den of thieves’ is aware of the larger board game that has run for years. Even after terms end and the states men and women step into retirement, they remain ‘useful’ soldiers for the various ‘missions’. They really have no choice. It’s the Hotel California dilemma.

      Reply
      • mulga mumblebrain

         /  February 10, 2017

        I have heard several hours of ‘news’ re. the power crisis in South Australia that provoked the current upsurge of attacks on renewable energy. Twenty or so hacks and politicians, only one of which mentioned ACD, even though we are sweltering through an unprecedented heat-wave, while in Western Australia they are suffering one of the Biblical deluges that are becoming more frequent around the planet.
        The one speaker who mentioned ACD, quite rightly observed that is was crazy that ACD is unmentionable even though that is precisely why renewables are needed, and in the midst of these weather extremes. He was quickly hushed up by the compere, and the panel moved back to attacking renewables and praising coal.

        Reply
        • Spike

           /  February 10, 2017

          We get the same in the UK. Here any threat to energy supplies or cheap power brings out the pro-FF and pro-nuke shills, whilst government has killed off onshore wind, our cheapest and abundant source. Recent policies have made it more difficult to develop onshore wind by requiring that the land be identified as suitable for wind development in a Local or Neighborhood Plan. Most local plans were developed before this was required, however, meaning that many local plans don’t include wind energy — making it difficult to install more wind capacity.And now they plan to hike taxes on businesses or schools that have installed solar by a factor of 8:

          http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/environment/solar-energy-government-accused-of-trying-to-kill-off-uk-industry-before-it-can-become-cheapest-form-of-electricity-35437754.html

        • mulga mumblebrain

           /  February 10, 2017

          Spike, you have the wonderful situation, thanks to the regime of the dissembler Cameron, where wind is sabotaged, allegedly to protect the countryside (which will be utterly devastated by ACD)but fracking is rammed down communities’ throats, despite massive opposition. It reminds you again of the Gilens and Page study in the USA that showed what Basil Fawlty would have called ‘the bleedin’ obvious’. That politicians rule only for the rich elites and in their interests, and the rabble can and will go to the Devil. Cameron’s cynical mendacity in promising ‘the Greenest Government’ ever, then immediately attacking all Green policies, before declaring them ‘Green crap’, is indicative of not just how vile these creatures all are, but so utterly destructive, too.
          Wind in the UK need not be forever. Say a half century or less until some other, less ‘intrusive’ energy source is found, then they could be dismantled. But, as I said, ACD will turn ‘England’s green and pleasant land’, into a desert, for a ‘vast eternity’.

    • Makes me think of what it must have been like living on Easter Island as the last palm forests were cut down to haul the ever larger Moai to their sites.

      Reply
    • Ouch… this one, the baby turtles dying roasted in the beach… it brings tears to the eyes.

      Reply
      • It would take a Jain to really care, but mosquitoes in interior Alaska fry when it is too hot, too. An Alaskan said it sounded like rain falling on the tent.

        Reply
  9. If we think about things are right now, today, if makes no difference who was elected President of the US. HOWEVER, with Trump instead of Clinton the future seems more bleak that it would seem under Hilary. I wonder all the time if either would make a difference at this point but I cant think of us just giving up…
    Thsnks for the article, Robert.

    Reply
    • We mustn’t. With Trump, the dangerous trend is bound to speed up (and he may well undo some of the good that’s come out of the last few years, speeding it up yet further). His greedy cronies and climate deniers won’t stop him / it, and if the rest give up, who’s left to fight for the health of the planet we depend on?

      Reply
  10. Meljay14

     /  February 10, 2017

    Another Australian here, also in agreement with everything from the three Ms (Mulga,Matt and Mark) and with your inability to wrap your brain around things in the US Suzanne. It is at least of some comfort on this blog that we can be honest about the extent of our anger, grief, incomprehension and fear. I had been thinking first ice free Arctic summer by 2025, collapse of global order during the 2030s, but now starting to wonder if this is optimism.

    Thanks as always, Robert.

    Reply
    • Here’s an item in the Guardian from 2013 – US Navy predicts summer ice free Arctic by 2016

      Actually – Professor Wieslaw Maslowski said
      “Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3, one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover.”

      Well – 2016 ± 3 years means up to 2019 for the realization of an ice-free arctic , within the limit of error of his calculation. I suspect he may be right.

      Googling ” Wieslaw Maslowski” or “ice free arctic predictions” gives some interesting articles. Too many links to include here!

      Wikepedia on Maslowski says: “He became well known in 2007 for stating that the Arctic Ocean might be nearly ice free in the summer as early as 2013, based on projection of the declining ice volume trend. While later revised to 2016 +/- 3 years based on computer modeling, this prediction became controversial when the Arctic was not sea-ice free in 2013, having increased from the record low set in 2012.”

      Certainly, IPCC predictions of 2050 or 2100 seem – well – optimistic.

      Since about 2012, I have been saying – By 2020 we will be living in a very different world

      Reply
    • Mark in OZ

       /  February 14, 2017

      Hey Meljay ( M-IV)
      Just a quick ‘headline’ in case you missed it. Help get the ‘word’ out what’s potentially happening and garner support and ‘resistance’ to ensure it does not.

      “Lithium-ion battery storage devices – including Tesla Powerwalls and other products – may be banned from being installed inside homes and garages in Australia under new guidelines being drafted by Standards Australia.”

      Yet another example of the ROE crowd pursuing anything to ensure their ROI keeps ascending. If only they could understand every ‘gain’ comes with a ‘loss’; and every ‘loss’ comes with ‘gain’. Their vaulted ‘accounting’ methods which endorse these ‘activities’, coupled with a sympathetic legislative and executive system, is nothing more than empire’s self developed blueprint to keep taking more and more under the auspice of respectable commerce.

      Terminator(1984):
      Kyle Reese ( from the Resistance Team): ” Listen, and understand! That Terminator is out there! It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop… ever.”

      http://reneweconomy.com.au/lithium-ion-battery-storage-may-be-banned-inside-australian-homes-57002/

      Reply
  11. The state of the oceans and the potential effects on the food chain are worrying.

    In addition to warming, their inhabitants have to deal with ridiculous amounts of plastics (predicted to outweigh fish by 2050 if nothing is done http://www.businessinsider.de/plastic-in-ocean-outweighs-fish-evidence-report-2017-1?r=US&IR=T).

    The acidification, also previously brought to our attention by Robert, could have a devastating effect on the food web, too (there’s an easy to understand summary here http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/Climatechange/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/OA_paper_v4.pdf).

    Add to that altered salinity, risk of stratification and god knows what else – it’s terrifying to think what all these factors combined might do…

    Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  February 10, 2017

      Those factors combined create a Canfield Ocean, and ‘Game over’. It certainly looks irreversible to me, even with insane Rightwing politics not in charge.

      Reply
      • Maybe we should rename it into PlasticAndCanFiield Ocean… gallows humor aside, the prospects are gloomy, wish there was an encouraging answer, but whatever we do it will probably be a case of too little, too late. Still we must try.

        Reply
        • mulga mumblebrain

           /  February 10, 2017

          Sammy, if the world was ruled by human beings, not psychopaths, we could still save ourselves. The required actions are known-massive wealth redistribution to drive the demographic transition to smaller families. Total de-carbonisation as fast as possible. Reforestation, grassland remediation, restoration of sea meadows, kelp forests, mangroves etc. New agriculture techniques to sequester more carbon in soils, also improving fertility. Possibly some techno-fix to restore ice-cover at the poles.
          Add any others you can think of. All known, all opposed by the Free Market capitalist cancer and its metastases in the political, business and fake-stream media infestations. And the required money is there for the asking. Trillions are wasted every year on military expenditure, trillions lie idol in offshore banks, and the EIGHT richest parasites control more wealth than the bottom 3.6 billion. Surely we can recognise our enemy by now.

  12. Anyone interested in the Arctic should be following Zack Labe on Twitter.

    Reply
  13. Genomik

     /  February 10, 2017

    Orrovile dam spillway in Northern Californian cracks during rains. Great pictures. Probably be ok but you never know.

    http://www.sfgate.com/news/us/amp/Nation-s-tallest-dam-Lake-Oroville-damaged-amid-10921278.php

    Reply
  14. Cate

     /  February 10, 2017

    Okay, time for a little good news:

    The top of the world is NOT going to blow up in a gigantic methane hydrate explosion anytime soon.

    So says the USGS.

    “A recent interpretive review of scientific literature performed by the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Rochester sheds light on the interactions of gas hydrates and climate.
    The breakdown of methane hydrates due to warming climate is unlikely to lead to massive amounts of methane being released to the atmosphere….
    The new review concludes that current warming of ocean waters is likely causing gas hydrate deposits to break down at some locations. However, not only are the annual emissions of methane to the ocean from degrading gas hydrates far smaller than greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere from human activities, but most of the methane released by gas hydrates never reaches the atmosphere. Instead, the methane often remains in the undersea sediments, dissolves in the ocean, or is converted to carbon dioxide by microbes in the sediments or water column.”

    Much more here:
    https://www.usgs.gov/news/gas-hydrate-breakdown-unlikely-cause-massive-greenhouse-gas-release

    Reply
    • I temper my enthusiasm for this good news with the observation that the more conservative predictions related to climate change, particularly in the arctic, have tended to underestimate rates of change, feedbacks, etc. Still, hopefully they’re right on this one.

      Reply
      • Shawn Redmond

         /  February 10, 2017

        Cate after reading the paper a couple of times it doesn’t give me a lot of confidence in the article. Granted it has a lot of science jargon over my pay grade but the first thing that gives me pause is it is a newly released paper and it’s open source at Wiley:
        http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016RG000534/full
        And the second thing that jumped was the following:
        The inclusion of hydrate dissociation as a possible source of atmospheric CH4 in the IPCC reports is a rightful acknowledgement of the fact that the amount of CH4 sequestered in this reservoir dwarfs that in some other parts of the Earth system. On the other hand, the IPCC reports cite no direct sources that constrain emissions of CH4 to the atmosphere as a result of gas hydrate dissociation. Indeed, while gas hydrate deposits are likely dissociating and releasing CH4 to sedimentary sections and the ocean on contemporary Earth, there remains no evidence that this hydrate-derived CH4 reaches the atmosphere or that the amounts that could potentially reach the atmosphere are significant enough to affect the overall CH4 budget. In the following sections, we discuss some of the difficulties in discerning methane released from gas hydrates from other populations of methane in the ocean and atmosphere and also underscore the powerful role of sinks in mitigating the transfer to the atmosphere of methane released by dissociating gas hydrates.
        IPCC Assessment (Year) Atmospheric Methane Emissions Attributed to Gas Hydrates (Tg CH4 yr−1) References Cited for Gas Hydrate-Related Atmospheric Methane Emissions
        First IPCC [1990] 5 (0–100) Kvenvolden [1988a] is cited for high end-member, but this reference argues that atmospheric emissions from gas hydrates are less than 160 Tg CH4 yr−1 (corresponding to 120 Tg C yr−1 or 0.12 Gt C yr−1)
        Second IPCC [1996] – Hydrate contributions were not included in the atmospheric methane budget.
        Third IPCC [2001] 5, 10 Fung et al. [1991]; Lelieveld et al. [1998] (respectively)
        Fourth IPCC [2007] 4, 5 Wang et al. [2004] inverse model; Wuebbles and Hayhoe [2002], citing Judd [2000] (respectively)
        Fifth IPCC [2013] 6 (2–9) Denman et al. [2007]; Dickens [2003b]—a book review; Shakhova et al. [2010a]

        Reply
    • Suzanne

       /  February 10, 2017

      I love good news..and I hope their study results are correct. But I wonder how it is that their results are so different from Shakhova’s? Does it have to do with the difference in depth that they referred to v.s. what Shakhova referenced? Is this study based on models or direct observations? Would love to have someone with more expertise explain how these papers came to such different results.

      Reply
      • Suzanne

         /  February 10, 2017

        And not to sound paranoid…but now that there is now an anti-science Regime running things on government websites…where everything is getting censored….Who are these authors?

        Reply
        • Cate

           /  February 10, 2017

          Suzanne, according to the USGS website, Carolyn Ruppel is a research geophysicist at Woods Hole and John Kessler is a professor at Uni of Rochester.

          But it is perhaps a sad sign of the times that it did cross my mind that the USGS website may well have been subjected to censorship since Bannon came to the throne. Probably not the case—-but how can we help being suspicious of everything now?

        • wili

           /  February 12, 2017

          Yeah, it would be nice to have a well informed blogger (like robert?? 🙂 ) go through this study with a fine-tooth comb and weight what is useful in it and what they are overlooking. It looks like it includes a claim that it is probably not too dangerous to extract this methane for commercial use, which does make me suspicious about who might have paid for the study.

      • Griffin

         /  February 11, 2017

        Considering that the USGS had a recent website article that explained just how thrilled they were to contribute to the discovery of a large oil reserve, I would be very cautious about taking away any positive news about methane from them. A misleading article that is filled with “most” and “likely” is something that I would wait to see a little more info on before I wrote off a threat as big as clathrate.
        It is really simple, as a govt agency, say the right thing and the money keeps flowing.
        https://www.usgs.gov/news/usgs-estimates-20-billion-barrels-oil-texas-wolfcamp-shale-formation

        Reply
      • mulga mumblebrain

         /  February 11, 2017

        Suzanne, it will be shown that the they differ (and Shawn has already intimated that the report may not truly represent the research findings)from the Arctic experts because this is YET MORE ‘soft denialism’, trying to downplay the severity of the situation. I am torn between the belief that this just represents Rightwing influence in US Government agencies, Government agencies trying to ‘cover their arse’ as the Tramp regime flails about, or some effort to lull the populace into complacency so that the necessary remedial action is not taken until it is too late.

        Reply
    • “Instead, the methane often remains in the undersea sediments, dissolves in the ocean, or is converted to carbon dioxide by microbes in the sediments or water column.”

      I believe for that to be true the release has to be steady, with relatively small bubbles. I doubt this will hold if there’s a sudden eruptive release of large quantities (such as what might have happened above ground causing the Yamal craters)

      Reply
      • mulga mumblebrain

         /  February 11, 2017

        The submarine craters discovered near New Zealand off the Chatham Rise, over an area of 20,000 square kilometres, which have been attributed to methane clathrate eruptions, indicate that large emissions have occurred in the past, and, let’s face it-our perturbation of the planet’s systems is greater and more rapid and more long-lasting than any other for at least a billion years.

        Reply
    • hatrack

       /  February 16, 2017

      Yes, and any substantial melting in East Antarctica was highly unlikely until 2050 or 2100.

      I note this not as a criticism of USGS, their methodology or if this summary, but simply to point out that time and time and time again, reality has moved faster, in many cases far faster than even “radical” scientists had posited in their worst-case scenarios.

      Did anyone ten years ago think that we’d be confronting a blue ocean scenario for the Arctic in 2020 or even earlier? Did anyone 20 years ago think that increases in atmospheric CO2 content would effectively double from 1 – 1.25 ppm to 3+ ppm YOY in less than two decades? Did anyone five years ago project that we’d be looking at nearly complete bleaching of the largest reef in the world by 2016?

      Reply
  15. Cate

     /  February 10, 2017

    Spring is coming. Check out Zack’s GIF.

    Reply
  16. Suzanne

     /  February 10, 2017

    Joe Romm…”Energy Experts give Trump the hard Truth: You can’t bring coal back”
    https://thinkprogress.org/coal-wont-rebound-whatever-president-trump-does-energy-experts-say-e30a78745b77#.nl5qtkt6b

    Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has a message for the new president: You are not going to bring coal back.

    Donald Trump won the presidency with claims that he is a brilliant businessman who will create jobs. He railed against a political “war on coal” supposedly waged by President Obama, one Trump claimed was “killing American jobs.” On his first day in office, Trump deleted all the climate change references on the White House website, replacing it with an “energy plan” that asserts he is “committed to… reviving America’s coal industry.”

    In a new analysis, leading independent energy experts at BNEF dismantle these claims. “Whatever President Trump may say, U.S. coal’s main problem has been cheap natural gas and renewable power, not a politically driven ‘war on coal,’” explain BNEF chair Michael Liebreich and chief editor Angus McCrone. Therefore “it will continue being pushed out of the generating mix.”

    Reply
  17. Cate

     /  February 10, 2017

    Looking beyond the blue Arctic to regrowing summer sea ice, with the help of some sort of geoengineering…..is it even feasible?

    “…….. getting back to a world with Arctic summer sea ice won’t be simple, politically or technically. Not everyone will embrace a return to an ice-covered Arctic, especially if it’s been blue for several generations. Companies and countries are already eyeing the opportunities for oil and gas exploration, mining, shipping, tourism and fishing in a region hungry for economic development……”.

    http://www.nature.com/news/arctic-2-0-what-happens-after-all-the-ice-goes-1.21431

    Reply
    • Shawn Redmond

       /  February 10, 2017

      Reads like pie in the sky. When you look at the global destruction caused by the level of CC we are now seeing, the powers that be will soon be spending all the capital they can wring out of us just repairing the present infrastructure. A nearly ice free Arctic in summer will cause havoc on a scale we cannot prep for. Never mind getting to ice free year round.

      Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  February 10, 2017

      Cate, if the Arctic goes blue, there will not be ‘several generations’ of humans to find it alluring and profitable. And if ‘business’ interests try to get in the way of albedo restoration-well, what would a sane species do to such creatures, when all our lives are at stake?

      Reply
    • If their research suggests that the threshold for getting the ice to refreeze is 450 ppm CO2 –
      ” On the basis of model projections, researchers suggest that the threshold hovers around 450 parts per million (p.p.m.) — some 50 p.p.m. higher than today. ”

      – then why is there any melting at the present level of 400+ ppm??

      Hansen suggests below 350 ppm CO2 for any refreeze to start.

      As Shawn says – this article sounds more than a little like pie in the sky.

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  February 10, 2017

        Well—-my first response in reading this item was, WTF? Then, W? T? F?
        Then I laughed out loud.
        I couldn’t believe 1.that any scientist would waste their time and energy studying this sort of lala-fantasy and 2. that Nature would pay any attention to it.
        But I suppose it’s the money. And where the money comes from always reveals what the study is really for.

        Reply
      • mulga mumblebrain

         /  February 11, 2017

        Not ‘pie’, Dave-soma.

        Reply
    • This type of creative speculation just, at best, keeps people hoping a miracle will save the living styles they are accustomed to. It’s a dangerous game that won’t save the planet or her inhabitants. What I don’t see is a profound shift that’s needed to save some semblance of life at all. This includes, but not limited to, the dismantling of the military,(the biggest burner of fossil fuels), the rapid shift in use of motorized transportation, cutting back air traffic,etc. The list is long indeed, Finally,the perverted failed system of capitalism has to be replaced in a social system of resource allocation to insure the surviving population has food and clean water, anything less will ensure the demise of our species and mast of the other higher lifeforms on Earth. I hope it’s not too late. The Ol’ Hippy

      Reply
  18. JPL

     /  February 10, 2017

    President Trump named as defendant in youths’ climate lawsuit

    Suit brought by 21 young people between the ages of 9 and 20, oh, and James Hansen. 🙂

    Reply
  19. Suzanne

     /  February 10, 2017

    At the WP today…”NASA took an unprecedented study of Greenland’s Melting…Now the Data are coming in”
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/02/10/nasa-took-on-an-unprecedented-study-of-greenlands-melting-now-the-data-are-coming-in/?postshare=231486764460330&tid=ss_tw

    The big picture is that NASA’s new data suggest — that’s right — new vulnerabilities.

    “Overall, together I think these papers suggest that the glaciers as a whole are more vulnerable than we thought they were,” Willis said. He says that, of course, with the aforementioned caveat that NASA is not ready yet to feed the data into a model that actually shows how this could play out over the decades of our future.

    Reply
  20. Shawn Redmond

     /  February 10, 2017

    No breaks for anything. You have to wonder about these events.

    (CNN)Desperate efforts are underway to save dozens of pilot whales still alive after hundreds stranded themselves on a New Zealand beach, in the third largest mass stranding in the country’s history.

    At least 250 whales were already dead of 400 found beached on Farewell Spit in Golden Bay on the tip of the South Island Friday, the Department of Conservation said in a statement.
    Rescuers attempted to refloat more than 100 whales mid-morning, of which about 50 returned to sea.
    However, another 80 to 90 whales who were freed re-stranded themselves in the same place just five hours later, Inwood said.

    http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/09/asia/new-zealand-whales-stranding/index.html

    Reply
    • Suzanne

       /  February 11, 2017

      This is one of those “punch to the gut” stories..that I have a hard time seeing. I literally feel ill seeing any creature suffer…but to see so many at once dying on that beach is heartbreaking.

      Reply
  21. coloradobob

     /  February 10, 2017

    Record heat: Half of Australia bakes in temperatures over 100 degrees

    Heat of this magnitude would put extreme stress on the U.S. power grid, but interestingly, energy experts in Australia are unconcerned. Cool heads prevail for one simple reason, ABC News Australia reports: “The high uptake of rooftop solar in the southern part of the state had reduced the overall load on the power network.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/02/10/record-heat-half-of-australia-bakes-in-temperatures-over-100-degrees/?utm_term=.d3398e1bf982#comments

    Reply
  22. Erik Frederiksen

     /  February 10, 2017

    I read of an oceanographer who suffered from depression. She knew what she would see every time she went out to the reefs.

    More dead coral.

    Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  February 11, 2017

      Eric, her depression would be doubled and redoubled when she saw the Right, in politics and the fake-stream media, all screeching that NOTHING is happening, that the Reef is OK, and that it was just ‘Green propaganda’ to undermine our beloved coal industry.

      Reply
  23. Can it be this simple?

    New engineered material can cool roofs, structures with zero energy consumption.
    Feb 9, 2017. U. Colorado at Boulder
    Summary:
    Engineers have developed a scalable manufactured metamaterial — an engineered material with extraordinary properties not found in nature — to act as a kind of air conditioning system for structures. It has the ability to cool objects even under direct sunlight with zero energy and water consumption.

    “During field tests in Boulder, Colorado and Cave Creek, Arizona, the metamaterial successfully demonstrated its average radiative cooling power larger than 110W/m2 for continuous 72 hours and larger than 90W/m2 in direct, noon-time sunlight. That cooling power is roughly equivalent to the electricity generated using solar cells for similar area, but the radiative cooling has the advantage of continuous running both day and night.

    “Just 10 to 20 square meters of this material on the rooftop could nicely cool down a single-family house in summer,” said Gang Tan, an associate professor in the University of Wyoming’s Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering and a co-author of the paper.”

    Reply
  24. Griffin

     /  February 11, 2017

    Currently 1C in Barentsburg, Svalbard.
    It is -8C at Boston Logan Airport, Massachusetts.
    That is nuts.

    Reply
  25. Vic

     /  February 11, 2017

    Some numbers coming out of New South Wales today…

    Penrith has reached 46.9C, setting an all-time record. The previous hottest day was 46.5C in January, 2013.

    On Observatory Hill, in Sydney, there has been a stretch of 10 days above 35C, breaking the previous record of nine.

    Canberra has experienced two consecutive days above 40 degrees, which has only happened twice before, in 1968 and 2009.

    Last night, broke the NSW overnight minimum temperature record. Previously, it was 33.3C, set in 1915. On Friday night, the outback town of White Cliffs, in north-western NSW, had a minimum of 34.2C.

    49 fires are currently burning across the state, 17 are not contained. Tomorrow (Sunday) is expected to bring strong winds causing an unprecedentedly large area of the state to experience ‘Catastrophic’ fire conditions.

    Up until recently, the fire danger rating was a scale between one and 100. Tomorrow, the fire danger rating will be upwards of 150 in some parts of the state.

    “We haven’t seen this in NSW to this extent, ever,” the RFS commissioner, Shane Fitzsimmons, said.
    “This is as bad as it gets, it is an awful prognosis heading into the weekend,” he said.

    “It’s not another summer’s day, it’s not another bad fire weather day, this is as bad as it gets in these circumstances,” Fitzsimmons said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2017/feb/11/australia-weather-record-heat-brings-bushfire-danger-to-south-east-live

    Reply
  26. Cate

     /  February 11, 2017

    Narsarsuaq, Greenland
    Temps today on Wunderground

    Day 3C (+8C above average)
    Night -1C (+9C above average)

    Reply
  27. coloradobob

     /  February 11, 2017

    More crazy numbers in the US Southern Plains today . (Lubbock) Average is 57F.
    We are going to 90F degrees today. 33F degrees on Monday.

    This will be the first time 90F has ever been recorded in Feb. The old record was March 4th.

    Just nuts.

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  February 11, 2017

      My doves are building a nest in my pecan tree. Hope she can hold off for a few more days, freezing rain coming Mon/Tue.

      Reply
  28. Suzanne

     /  February 11, 2017

    Australia’s Catastrophic Fire Conditions…Happening this weekend.

    Reply
  29. coloradobob

     /  February 11, 2017

    NASA took on an unprecedented study of Greenland’s melting. Now, the data are coming in

    Back in 2015, in a moment of science communication genius, NASA created a mission called “OMG.” The acronym basically ensured that a new scientific mission — measuring how quickly the Oceans are Melting Greenland — would get maximum press attention.

    The subject is actually extremely serious. OMG amounts to a comprehensive attempt, using ships, planes, and other research tools, to understand what’s happening as warm seas creep into large numbers of fjords that serve as avenues into the vast ice sheet — many of which contain large and partly submerged glaciers that are already melting and contributing to sea-level rise.

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/nasa-took-on-an-unprecedented-study-of-greenland%E2%80%99s-melting-now-the-data-are-coming-in/ar-AAmOSWm?li=BBnb7Kz#image=2

    Reply
  30. coloradobob

     /  February 11, 2017

    BREAKING: Lake Oroville flowing over emergency spillway for first time in dam’s history

    Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article132154774.html#storylink=cpy

    Reply
  31. Shawn Redmond

     /  February 11, 2017

    Here’s another dubious record.
    2,255,361 km2(February 10, 2017)the lowest ever measured, will IJIS pass the 2,000,000 km2 mark before the end of the melt season down below?

    * antarctica-feb10-2017.png (83.58 kB, 700×450 – viewed 405 times.)

    Reply
  32. coloradobob

     /  February 11, 2017

    SA heatwave: 100 flying foxes die during extreme weather

    Something I learned about these wonderful creatures 7 years ago during the “Black Saturday” event.
    They lick their wrists to cool themselves , so they aren’t adapted to 115F and above. This is why they drop out of the trees, and are dead when they hit the ground.

    Reply
  33. coloradobob

     /  February 11, 2017

    African penguins are being ‘trapped’ by climate change

    Climate change and overfishing off Africa’s southern tip have set a “trap” for endangered African penguins leaving their nests.

    The young penguins swim thousands of miles from where they hatched, following biological signposts advertising a buffet of anchovies and sardines. What they don’t realize is the buffet seems to have closed.

    When the birds arrive, their favorite food is almost gone, replaced by less nutritious gobies and jellyfish. This is what scientists call an “ecological trap,” in which animals mistakenly settle in habitats degraded by environmental changes.

    Link

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  February 11, 2017

      Losing the fish has essentially broken a link in the middle of the food chain. This causes a “mismatch” in the ecosystem, in which penguins get faked out when they find lots of plankton but no fish.

      Reply
      • coloradobob

         /  February 11, 2017

        I find this interesting , yet another example of the exponential world we are living in . We’re not just going after the links at the top and bottom , we’re after the links in the middle with a blow torch and tongs.

        Reply
  34. coloradobob

     /  February 11, 2017

    Currently at 89F here , about to crush a record by 3 weeks . The earliest 90F degree record. Another good 2 hours of heating. The models have been low balling our highs here all winter. We could make 92F .

    Then that “Albuquerque Low” is coming right over us .

    Whiplash.

    Reply
  35. coloradobob

     /  February 11, 2017

    The Ballad of a Thin Man ………………

    You walk into the room with your pencil in your hand
    You see somebody naked and you say, “Who is that man?”
    You try so hard but you don’t understand
    Just what you will say when you get home
    Because something is happening here but you don’t know what it is
    Do you, Mr. Jones?

    More whales strand in New Zealand, bringing total to 650

    A NEW pod of 240 whales swam aground at a remote New Zealand beach on Saturday just hours after weary volunteers managed to refloat a different group of whales following an earlier mass stranding.

    In total, more than 550 pilot whales have beached themselves along a 5 kilometre stretch of coastline over two days on Farewell Spit at the tip of the South Island.

    About 335 of the whales are dead, 220 remain stranded, and 100 are back at sea.

    Link

    Reply
  36. Ailsa

     /  February 11, 2017

    All of the incredible details of the heartbreaking stories and facts posted here are so far beyond the comprehension of our current ‘masters’. They really just don’t care. They work from a mindset that is sooo different.

    Below is a reminder of the horrific displays of just a few months ago. Faced with the tsunami of untruths and madness since then, its just so easy to forget it…

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  February 11, 2017

      Thugs and fools.

      Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  February 11, 2017

      Ailsa, they are psychopaths cocooned by wealth and privilege.

      Reply
    • Ailsa

       /  February 11, 2017

      Thank you CB and MM for responding. I ask your indulgence in re-posting this track by The Special AKA and Rhoda Dakar. Its very dark, but so very relevant. Remember the Women’s March. Honour the women in your lives. Fight against the all too common experiences that kill all our souls. Notice how crushed and resigned she is at the end.

      Reply
      • Ailsa

         /  February 12, 2017

        There are so many of us that this has happened to. We will NOT stand silently by and let our ‘rulers’ continue doing it. We will NOT stand silently by and let our ‘rulers’ do it to our beautiful planet.

        Reply
  37. Jimbot

     /  February 11, 2017

    Thanks again for all your intrepid reporting and comprehensive presentations, R.S.

    Surely many scientists would agree, this is a major component of the rapidly ongoing Sixth Great Extinction. I wonder if there is any added effect on the coral from the mostly un-contained 3 reactor full meltdown event leaking directly into the Pacific ocean at Fukushima?

    Reply
  38. Reply
    • Oh dang, only 99F.

      Reply
      • coloradobob

         /  February 11, 2017

        Hell comes to breakfast.

        Reply
      • Suzanne

         /  February 12, 2017

        A very “red” state..in more than just heat… that overwhelmingly votes Republican all the time…and of course, went for the Lunatic. But I am sure they are telling themselves 100 degree heat in early February…is just God’s will…because there is no such thing as CC. Move along…nothing to see.

        Reply
      • I did not see a mention of the 99 degree temp in the Tulsa paper or local NPR radio/Fox radio Also our(Okla) state climatologist has muzzled himself very well for years,as well as all Weathermen/women..

        Reply
  39. coloradobob

     /  February 11, 2017

    Reply
  40. coloradobob

     /  February 11, 2017

    Dire Straits – Heavy Fuel + lyrics

    Reply
  41. coloradobob

     /  February 11, 2017

    Reply
  42. coloradobob

     /  February 12, 2017

    Now more than ever we all need Gershwin .

    Reply
    • Suzanne

       /  February 12, 2017

      I have heard this piece thousands of times…and never, ever get tired of hearing it.

      Reply
  43. coloradobob

     /  February 12, 2017

    203. RobertWC
    11:22 PM GMT on February 11, 2017
    3 +
    Bob Henson ✔ @bhensonweather
    It just hit 100F at the Oklahoma Mesonet site at Mangum, OK. Today is February 11.

    Reply
  44. coloradobob

     /  February 12, 2017

    Quoting 236. RobertWC:

    Get ready little lady .

    Karma is coming to breakfast.

    The world gets crazier – Judith Curry goes Lizard Men,

    Reply
  45. Jay M

     /  February 12, 2017

    Jetstream:

    Reply
    • Not sure if my memory is playing tricks on me, but I seem to remember up until a few years ago it was mostly just a wavy line. It’s definitely getting crazier, especially in the NH; today (Feb 12) it looks like it’s even doubling back on itself.

      Reply
  46. coloradobob

     /  February 12, 2017

    The engineers say they have everything under control.

    Well nature is about to vote, and she doesn’t give a rats fuzzy butt what the engineers think.

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  February 12, 2017

      A tense, historic day at Oroville Dam captured in dramatic videos
      Major sinkhole on spillway at Lake Oroville
      Millions of gallons of rushing water pound and erode the massive Lake Oroville Dam spillway.

      By Patrick McGreevy and Cindy Carcamo

      Contact Reporter

      History was made Saturday as the emergency spillway at mighty Oroville Dam — the nation’s tallest — was brought into action because of damage at the dam’s main spillway.

      Eric See, a spokesman for the state Department of Water Resources, said it was the first time the auxiliary spillway was used to drain water from the lake since the dam was finished in 1968.

      Reply
  47. coloradobob

     /  February 12, 2017

    It was 100F degrees in heartland today. in February. No one has ever seen this. If this, shows up over the Sierra. we are all screwed.

    Reply
  48. coloradobob

     /  February 12, 2017

    These numbers here load the lows they are being hurled North.

    They don’t die after they leave us. They are after the last of the ice. The last of the old cold .

    They are the killers of the cold. The murders of the ice in it’s bed.

    Reply
  49. coloradobob

     /  February 12, 2017

    They are the killers of the cold. The murders of the ice in it’s bed.

    Reply
  50. Jay M

     /  February 12, 2017

    Reply
  51. coloradobob

     /  February 12, 2017

    The highest temperature in Oklahoma on Saturday was 99 degrees in Mangum, the highest temperature ever recorded this early in the year.

    KOCO-TV
    Oklahoma City also broke a daily temperature record for Feb. 11. The old record was 82 degrees in 1962, but on Saturday, it hit 89 degrees, crushing the old record,

    http://www.koco.com/article/record-heat-across-the-sooner-state-saturday/8733144

    Reply
  52. Greg

     /  February 12, 2017

    Nostalgia is a funny thing. We will look back at these days with it when the Arctic is gone along with much else I suspect. But when adversity truly comes we may perversely be truly alive. CB’s talk about working the rigs and knowing you could die any moment, and loving those times, comes to mind. I’ve met Londoners who look with nostalgia to growing up during the bombings by the Germans. Something about living in great adversity to make one feel truly alive. One thing I expect we will never see with nostalgia – coal mining. My brother-in-law has now posted his music video of a sing he wrote some time ago about a coal miner’s wife

    Reply
  53. coloradobob

     /  February 12, 2017

    Kevin Hester We set fire to our own home and the whining has only just begun.

    Reply
  54. coloradobob

     /  February 12, 2017

    Greg ………

    My oldest friend called us “fleas” .and how burning it all down was OK.

    I did not reply. I was crushed.

    I live in a world of crushed, and tears.

    Reply
  55. coloradobob

     /  February 12, 2017

    Crushed, and Tears.

    Bob, if you forget everything I ever taught you, remember this …………..
    “No matter where you go, there you are”.

    Reply
  56. coloradobob

     /  February 12, 2017

    Reply
  57. coloradobob

     /  February 12, 2017

    Well , here we are,

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  February 12, 2017

      We made enough money to buy Miami, but we pissed it away so fast , never mint to last. Never mint to last.

      Reply
  58. Vic

     /  February 12, 2017

    Temperature records continuing to tumble across New South Wales today along with Queensland setting its highest ever February maximum at 47.2C (117F).

    There’s now 87 fires burning across NSW with 32 uncontained. A strong, southerly wind change is beginning to move into the danger zones as I write.

    Two and a half thousand firefighters are on the ground with some succumbing to heat stress.

    At least two coal mines are evacuating staff amid concerns about nearby fires.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-12/live-coverage-as-heatwave-drags-on-nsw-qld-weather/8263130

    Reply
  59. coloradobob

     /  February 12, 2017

    Vic the first version –

    Reply
    • Vic

       /  February 12, 2017

      Thanks Bob. So many great versions of this song. The lyrics are so applicable to our predicament it’s hard to believe they were penned so many years ago.

      Reply
  60. coloradobob

     /  February 12, 2017

    Vic one more –

    Reply
  61. coloradobob

     /  February 12, 2017

    Robert Plant | ’29 Palms’

    Reply
  62. Vic

     /  February 12, 2017

    18 February records broken across Queensland today, 4 of them all time records:
     
    TOOWOOMBA – 40.8 TODAY: February record was 37.4. All time record was 39.5.

    GATTON – 45.7 TODAY: February record was 42. All time record was 44.5 

    OAKEY – 42.8 TODAY: February record was 39.5 and all time record was 42.1. 

    KINGAROY: 41.6 TODAY: February record was 39. All time record was 41. 

    If Toowoomba’s salad bowl was two thirds fried last week, I’d hate to see it now.

    Reply
  63. Cate

     /  February 12, 2017

    File under: “Since we’ve screwed it, let’s try fixing it by screwing with it some more.” We can expect to see more and more of this insanity. Make it look like you’re fixing it, when in reality you’re screwing it up beyond any hope of repair.

    And what troubles me most about geo-engineering is that it’s exactly the sort of thing the Davos Gang will seize on in order to deflect attention from the real crisis so they can continue with BAU and their billionaire-bunker-building projects.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/12/plan-to-refreeze-arctic-before-ice-goes-for-good-climate-change

    Reply
    • Shawn Redmond

       /  February 12, 2017

      Amazing isn’t it. I’ve been looking into this for some time now and I don’t think there is the time nor resources left to cause much damage. Right now the powers that be are looking greedily at the extractable resources easily gotten to in an ice free Arctic. So putting the ice back at this point looks counter productive to them. Before it goes ice free the damage being caused to the present infrastructure will keep them busily repairing it in order to keep the profits rolling in. An ever decreasing supply of low hanging fruit coupled with the increasing damage that has to be repaired, driving costs up at both ends, will probably keep that foolish idea from gaining much ground. It would have to be on the same scale as removing carbon from the atmosphere, the sane move so not likely, possible only in theory at this point. Time and materials may be somewhat hard to come by.

      Reply
      • Greg

         /  February 12, 2017

        It is a stochastic process within probabilities. We will not return to what was, no matter what we do now. It will all be different. Nature doesn’t slide up a curve and then return on the same curve, nor to the same starting point. We must let go of nostalgia.

        Reply
  64. Greg

     /  February 12, 2017

    CB,
    Re.”I live in a world of crushed, and tears” Your friend with the flea comment should eat his words for taking anything from that big heart of yours. An old friend of mine, a Tom Browner, a tracker, and a Coloradan to boot, told me in a sweat lodge he led before sending me off on the Vision Quest he convinced me to take, Thanksgiving 1996 – dang it was cold in those mountains – had this to say: We ARE nature. We are not separate from it. We don’t do things to nature. It is natural for us to be here and so we are part of the natural order of things. Even if we don’t understand our part, even if we see ourselves as some sort of parasites. Even should we see ouselves among them, the mosquitoes, the fleas, the ticks, all are part of the natural order of things. I add we are witness and heavy participant to evolution.

    Reply
  65. Griffin

     /  February 12, 2017

    I would like to add my thoughts on the Oroville dam situation. We have always stressed the truth here and have always looked hard for the reality of a situation that is removed from hyperbole. This situation warrants just such an approach.
    The dam is not in danger. Let’s get that straight and look past the “tallest dam in the country” statements that serve to lead us into thinking about catastrophic failure. Catastrophic failure of the dam is not going to happen. The engineering behind the project was done with this situation in mind. The primary spillway is backed up by the emergency spillway. If the emergency spillway is used, the dam is not affected. In a worst case scenario, the water flows over the emergency spillway until the flood ends. The dam will still be there and will never know the difference. It can only fill to the level it is at now, and then the water goes over the lower portion of the emergency spillway. The emergency spillway being used will not result in the destruction of the dam. It will dramatically increase the amount of mud and debris into the river but it will not result in dam failure.
    After that part is understood, it is time to recognize where the danger is very real. This is the areas downstream. The reason for this is because the river flows through areas protected by dykes. The dyke system has an upper flow limit beyond which the water will overtop and destroy the dykes. This will result in catastrophic flooding for low lying areas. Go back and look what happened in the flood of 1997 and you will see what happened (tragically) when the dykes failed in many areas.
    The reservoir system of which Oroville is a part of is designed to dampen the flood pulses along the rivers and prevent the massive flood events that had been a frequent occurrence in the past. In a simplified explanation, when it rains, the reservoir fills and holds water back from the river. When it is not raining, the primary spillway is opened and the lake level lowered to increase the flood control capacity. This is the annual dance that has been performed every year since the dams have been built.
    For the reservoir to do this critical job, the water level needs to be actively managed. If the lake is full and has no capacity to further hold back water, then the downstream dyke system loses protection from flood pulses. A heavy rain becomes a huge threat to the dyke system and the thousands of people that rely on them for protection.
    In the current situation, the primary spillway is damaged. The amount of water that can be released from it was reduced. As a contingency, the lake level was allowed to increase to the point of the water going over the emergency spillway. This is considered an “uncontrolled” flooding event because the flow rate into the river is determined by lake inflow. As of now, the inflow is dropping due to favorable weather. This situation does not result in catastrophe because the river (and the dyke system) is not at full flow capacity. This is due to the fact that the primary spillway is not releasing anywhere near what it could release. This was done to reduce the damage to it’s structure. So the primary spillway is operating at a reduced rate and we have the emergency spillway operating at a low rate. The two combine (along with flow through the dam) to result in the river system flowing well within capacity.
    With continued favorable weather, the flow over the emergency spillway will stop. The continued limited release of water through the primary spillway will then lower the lake level and provide capacity to allow for protection to the dyke system from further rains. How much of an impact the next round of rain will have will depend on many intricate details that will play out in the coming days.
    Just remember that the folks that run the reservoir system are amazing professionals that have done a masterful job of saving lives many times in the past. Their system is damaged but not out. They are not going to lose the dam and in fact are still working to provide the maximum amount of flood protection that they can even with the primary spillway damaged.
    My hat is off to them.

    Reply
  66. Forecast today for today, Feb 12: Raleigh, NC Hi 77 Lo 40
    Average 54 33
    It is a perfect day, clear, calm, Carolina blue sky almost cloudless, with a few faint cirrus.
    As beautiful a May 12 ever made.

    Reply
  67. Suzanne

     /  February 12, 2017

    At the Guardian today…”Humans Causing Climate to Change 170 times Faster than Natural Forces”…
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/12/humans-causing-climate-to-change-170-times-faster-than-natural-forces?

    For the first time, researchers have developed a mathematical equation to describe the impact of human activity on the earth, finding people are causing the climate to change 170 times faster than natural forces.

    The equation was developed in conjunction with Professor Will Steffen, a climate change expert and researcher at the Australian National University, and was published in the journal The Anthropocene Review.

    Reply
  68. Suzanne

     /  February 12, 2017

    Came across a new regular series on CC presented by Katharine Hayhoe…called
    “Welcome to Global Weirding”. The series is comprised of short, simple to understand episodes on CC. She is a scientist who is also an Evangelical Christian…so religion and CC are discussed on a couple of her episodes.
    I have been very concerned for a long time that climate scientists, for the most part, were not getting their message about CC out to the public in an effective way. I think Katharine Hayhoe’s series is well done and effective messaging. Especially for those who are really not informed on even the basic science or who are Christian Evangelicals. The messaging may be to simplistic for those of us who have been aware and studying CC for a long time..but it is still a series that might be worth your sharing with those in your life. Check it out:

    Reply
    • Cate

       /  February 12, 2017

      Suzanne, agreed, this is a really good series, especially for climate “newbies”, general audiences, and young people. I’ve been following Katherine for a while. She’s engaging and accessible, even charming—one of the best science communicators around now, in my view. She’s also worth keeping an eye on as she travels quite a bit to speak—-recently she has been in Winnipeg and in Lubbock, for example. And as she points out, although she tries to minimise her flying, it is sometimes a necessary evil in her line of work, so she reduces her carbon footprint by purchasing compensatory carbon offsets.

      Reply
  69. Nancy

     /  February 12, 2017

    Hard to believe that in 2017, in the city of Boston, home to MIT and Harvard, there is rampant climate denial in the media. There have been a few stories in the Boston Globe lately about WGBH, the Boston public TV and radio station (and home to the NOVA series) hiring and then firing a new science reporter, Mish Michaels after an outcry about her credentials. Mish, a former TV meteorologist, is a known climate change denier/doubter (as well as an anti-vaxxer). How can a PBS station hire a climate change denier as their science reporter in 2017? Apparently, one of the station managers is a former AM-talk radio station manager. But that is still a poor excuse for hiring her.

    There are still quite a few climate change denier/doubter meteorologists on Boston TV channels (for some reason, lots of TV meteorologists are deniers….go figure!) but for the PBS station to hire one is mind-blowing. I’m glad they fired her, but it is still very shocking.

    At this point, I think we should have daily hour-long shows devoted to climate disruption on every channel. But I know that will never happen.

    BTW, CBS nightly news will have a special series with live reporting this week from Antarctica re: climate change.

    Reply
    • Griffin

       /  February 12, 2017

      Unfortunately Nancy, the Koch money runs deep in Massachusetts media.
      As a fellow resident, I share your frustration!

      Reply
      • Nancy

         /  February 12, 2017

        I was born, raised and lived in Boston and the ‘burbs until retirement two years ago. Now I’m living in NH, the quiet life. But yes, Koch money is alive and well in Boston/Cambridge. I am glad to know Jim Braude (Boston Public Radio) fought Mish’s hiring. She should not have any public platform for her denialism. I hope this story gets national coverage and she is permanently discredited.

        Reply
    • Ryan in New England

       /  February 13, 2017

      We’ve been seeing Koch money supporting Connecticut public television for the past couple years too. It’s horribly frustrating, and sadly their propaganda has been very effective. While the entire world is living through the middle of rapid climate change, roughly have of Americans still think it’s not even real. It makes my head want to explode. The tragic part is the fact that all these idiots are also able to vote. Their ignorance and apathy is having a devastating effect on the future of all life on this planet and has installed a sociopathic narcissist as President.

      Reply
      • Nancy

         /  February 13, 2017

        Well said, Ryan. And this knowledge makes me feel even more helpless/hopeless.

        Reply
  70. coloradobob

     /  February 12, 2017

    CBS News’ Mark Phillips Reports Live From Antarctica Next Week on Climate Change

    http://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/cbs-news-mark-phillips-reports-live-from-antarctica-next-week-on-climate-change/320445

    Reply
  71. Suzanne

     /  February 13, 2017

    Just got home from another anti-Trump rally here in Palm Beach County. Nearly 1,000 protestors lined the route that the Lunatic would be taking to the airport (I will admit my middle finger, with a mind of it’s own, went up as his motorcade went by).

    We were there protesting his Climate Change Denial, the Sabal Palm pipeline here in FL and most importantly, DAPL. My husband counted nearly 1,000 (only 300 had R.S.V.P) anti-Trump protestors…and 20 or so Pro-Trump people.
    I am not on Facebook..and I don’t know how to attach a picture to my comment here…but I thought everyone would like to know the RESISTANCE is strong in Palm Beach County.
    (Last weekend 3,000 showed up for a march and rally while he was in town)

    BTW..it is costing P.B. County taxpayers $250,000 every time he shows up…which apparently is going to be often. And yet, he constantly complained about President Obama golfing….(sigh)

    Reply
  72. Suzanne

     /  February 13, 2017

    And incredibly OT…but worth it IMO….Melissa McCarthy on SNL last night as Sean Spicer. Someone tweeted….that SNL has become the nations “group therapy”. I could not agree more! I find it has been some of the best laughs I have had in months..

    Reply
  73. Griffin

     /  February 13, 2017

    I am sick.

    Reply
  74. Griffin

     /  February 13, 2017

    Reply
    • Nancy

       /  February 13, 2017

      http://www.kcra.com/nowcast There is live streaming. Pretty scary.

      Reply
    • Shawn Redmond

       /  February 13, 2017

      Griffin I don’t believe things could not be worse.

      Officials warn of “imminent failure” at Oroville Dam’s emergency spillway

      4:45 p.m.

      Officials are warning those living downstream of Lake Oroville’s dam to evacuate because of a risk that the dam’s emergency spillway could collapse.

      “They have what they expect to be an imminent failure of the axillary spillway,” said Mike Smith, a spokesman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. “What they’re expecting is as much as 30 vertical feet of the top of the spillway could fail and could fail within one to two hours. We don’t know how much water that means, but we do know that’s potentially 30 feet of depth of Lake Oroville.”

      The Department of Water Resources, which operates the dam, said in a 4:42 p.m. Twitter post that the emergency spillway could fail within the next hour.

      “Oroville residents evacuate northward,” the Tweet said.

      Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article132332499.html#storylink=cpy

      Reply
      • wili

         /  February 13, 2017

        How can this NOT hit Sacramento? Or at least parts of it? Are they going to start evacuating that far downstream? There are already about 200,000 people being evacuated.

        Let’s just hope Folsom Dam doesn’t succumb to the same forces at the same time!!

        Reply
        • wharf rat

           /  February 13, 2017

          Folsom is at 69% of capacity. Shasta, however, is at 96%, so they will have to start releasing soon. The reservoirs have been making some impressive gains; over 100K acre feet/day last week for Orovile, Shasta, and Folsom.
          http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/current/RES

          During the last few hours of coverage, I’ve heard the 100K CFS outflow called “100 CFS” and “100K gallons”. Oy. come on, people. Alternate facts are bad enuf, but don’t start with alternative weights and measures.

      • wili

         /  February 13, 2017

        They’re evacuating Yuba City, too, and as far south as Nicolaus, just about 20 miles from Sacramento.

        Reply
        • wili

           /  February 13, 2017

          So apparently they think the flood will break through enough levees and flow out into enough flood plains that Sacramento will be spared. We’ll see, I guess.

          Another note: the 770-foot-tall Oroville Dam is the nation’s tallest, so that’s a lot of energy that this water will have coming down off that mountain!

      • wharf rat

         /  February 13, 2017

        From local news, they are releasing 100K CFS. To put that into perspective, the Colo. River averages 22.5K CFS. They would like to drop the lake level 50 feet. Next chance of rain is Wed. night.

        CA – DWR ‏@CA_DWR 6h6 hours ago
        Flows over the auxiliary spillway have ceased. 100,000 cfs continue down the main spillway. @ButteSheriff

        CA – DWR ‏@CA_DWR 10h10 hours ago

        DWR plans to use helicopters to drop rocks to fill in the gouge in the Oroville Auxilliary Spillway to stabilize.

        Reply
        • wili

           /  February 13, 2017

          Thanks for the local update, wr. Please do keep us posted. It seems like in the morning light they should be able to get a better assessment of whether the hole, 200-foot-long, 30-foot-deep by latest accounts, has grown or stabilized.

      • wili

         /  February 13, 2017

        Apparently, water is no longer going over the emergency spillway and the lake is below flooding level. They are going to continue to release water down the also-damaged main spillway to get water levels even further down in anticipation of more rain and melting later this week and later in the season. $100 – 200 million is the estimated cost of the eventual fix.

        Evacuation orders have not been lifted, though, so they are still clearly worried about the stability of the spillways (but not of the dam itself, which seems to be sound).

        Reply
        • wili

           /  February 13, 2017

          …Butte County Sheriff Kory Honea said officials made the decision to nearly double the volume of water being released from the dam to 100,000 cubic feet per second to drain the lake quickly and stop erosion at the top of the auxiliary spillway.

          “Hopefully, that will release pressure on the emergency spillway and they’ll find a repair to prevent a complete failure,” Honea said Sunday. “[The] situation is dynamic and could change anytime.”

          The lake had been lowered to 2 feet below the top of the emergency spillway thanks to the increased volume of water being released through the dam’s main spillway, Oroville Mayor Linda Dahlmeier told ABC News.

          The lake level is being lowered at a rate of about 4 inches per hour, the mayor said, adding that the erosion area has stopped progressing and stabilized.

          http://abcnews.go.com/US/thousands-evacuated-calif-dam-danger-failure/story?id=45450195

        • wili

           /  February 13, 2017

          “…the situation is dynamic and could change anytime…”

          So true in so many ways…

        • Leland Palmer

           /  February 13, 2017

          I’ve been doing a rough back of the envelope estimate using a spreadsheet. Unless I screwed up, it looks like their 100,000 cubic feet per second release could be enough.

          They could get as much as half a million acre feet of runoff in the next few days, not counting snow melt, with an average of about 2.5 inches of precipitation. But they can release something like 200,000 acre feet per day. Of course, snow melt could increase the runoff.

          How that all is going to play out, dunno. Hope it’s enough.

        • The Washington Post has similar calculations for the Oroville dam inflow/outflow numbers, but a higher rainfall estimate- they are saying up to nine inches of precipitation, but their calculation is based on six inches.

          https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/02/13/the-lake-oroville-dam-stress-test-isnt-over-more-rain-this-week-then-spring-thaw/?utm_term=.e6f01f06ddb3

          “Up to nine inches of precipitation is possible in the region over the next seven days. That’s what global weather forecast models are predicting as three storms line up back-to-back for Northern California. After a relatively dry Monday and Tuesday, rain will return Wednesday and last through early next week.

          Even if we assume widespread rainfall totals of six inches in the Oroville runoff area, that would mean 400 billion gallons, or 1.23 million acre-feet, of water input over the next five to 10 days”

          Neither estimate is a worst case scenario. I don’t think they are including snow melt, for example. I hope they keep the spillway running at 100,000 cubic feet per second, no matter how much damage the regular spillway sustains.

          Their article does not mention global warming or climate change, even as a possibility. When will the Washington Post just start reporting climate related news straight?

        • Turns out, Oroville Dam can release up to 150,000 cfs (roughly 300,000 acre feet) of water per day. That seems likely to be enough to save the structure. Of course, it’s still possible that the main spillway could erode all the way back to the spillway gates by the end of spring thaw. Some parts of the Oroville dam watershed have the water equivalent of 3 or 4 feet of water as snow pack. A series of warm storms with heavy precipitation could still threaten the structure.

          The repair bill on the two spillways will likely be pretty high. They should of course concrete over the emergency spillway and repair the main spillway. The bill could run to 300 million dollars or more. Quite a few of California’s dams are aging and we need to prepare many of them for global weirding, I think.

          The coverage of this event is not mentioning the connection to global warming. We are in the midst of global weirding. There is roughly seven to ten percent more water vapor in the atmosphere now that there was during pre-industrial times, leading to more extreme weather, and the jetstream has been destabilized. This is a teachable moment about the effects and costs of global weirding and it’s not being reported on by the mainstream media.

  75. Vic

     /  February 13, 2017

    Thousands of dead bats being found in northern New South Wales.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-13/heatwave-kills-thousands-of-bats-nsw/8265530

    Reply
  76. mulga mumblebrain

     /  February 13, 2017

    Reading all the reports of what clearly looks like the beginning of some sort of ‘runaway’ climate changes, or at the very least a continuing period of extreme instability, is it not time to do SOMETHING to save humanity? It is almost tempting to wallow in grief and despair, but we have reached the Age of Consequences, and NOTHING that can happen to us if we act can possibly be worse than still sitting still and moaning.
    As to ‘What is to be Done?’, the possible answers are myriad. Violent resistance is pointless, and only plays into the ruling psychopaths’ hands. Continuing the past few decades patient pointing out of the facts, and waiting for a general awakening of the populace has proved catastrophically mistaken, with relentless Rightwing propaganda and brainwashing actually increasing the ferocity of denialism. Hoping for political action has proved similarly pointless, the ‘democracies’, particularly in the Anglosphere, being utterly corrupted by corporate money, and the malignant influence of the Rightwing MSM, particularly the Murdoch cancer, which just grows ever more vile and extremist.
    Scientists have overwhelmingly been ‘missing in action’, downplaying the dangers, and running for cover whenever the Rightwing lynch-mob abuses them. That so late in the day we still rely on IPCC Reports, released at leisurely intervals, dumbed down to suit a search for consensus with pariahs like the Sauds and Australia, and immediately out of date, is scandalous.
    Relying on ‘market mechanisms’ will guarantee disaster. Carbon trading will pursue profit maximisation, not emissions reduction. Capitalists MUST put ‘growth’ first, no matter what, and THAT is the root of ALL our ecological catastrophes. ‘Democracy’ also has failed us, delivering Trump, Cameron, Abbott and Turnbull, with even worse waiting in the wings.
    I think we can only achieve some success by massive passive resistance. I mean bringing the cancerous system down, by not spending, by boycotting the worst criminals, particularly the likes of the Murdoch organisation. Their advertisers must be boycotted, and Murdoch big-wigs peacefully picketed wherever they go. Ditto with fossil fuel interests and the worst denialist politicians. If we fear destroying the system that is causing our self-extinction, we will surely all pass into the dark, and within decades.

    Reply
    • Dreamer

       /  February 13, 2017

      This was possibly the most astute thing I’ve seen written here in awhile mulga. For years now, I’ve suggested to people around me that the most effective passive action they could take to alter what they can all intuitively see as a fouled and corrupted system being imposed upon us, one none of us deep down inside wants to be a part of anymore … is to just up and stop going to work tomorrow.

      Period.

      When I took this radical action myself over a decade ago, I was amazingly upheld by some inexplicable taoistic force that seems to permeate life around us. I didn’t die or succumb. Instead, I was somehow supported and inexplicably upheld. It was almost a spiritual experience in a way, and quite a bizarre one, considering I’m (still) an atheist.

      Alas, up and just not going to work tomorrow … or ever again … is a step nobody around me is ever willing to take. And so, the system plods along, with the complicit tolerance of the people … people who still think talking about it in private circles is maybe going to change something about it.

      You want this to change this all in a hurry? Simple, just don’t go into work tomorrow en mass, ever again. However, only one or two or three people doing this, only here or there, and slowly over time … will achieve nothing. It would require everyone to do it all at once, which it seems won’t ever happen. So, hell will approach us with it’s breakfast menu, because everyone keeps feeding the monster and are too afraid to just walk away from it.

      Though it will probably never happen, I do think massive passive resistance and radical self sacrifice would work. Just … stop … and do the starfish float. But, it requires putting your own life on the line, which seems to be the ultimate sacrifice people are too afraid to employ. Instead, they choose do die slowly, one tiny cut at a time, compromised and enslaved … by eight sadistic families.

      Again, thanks for your astute post mulga. Rational appeals to irrational people obviously achieve nothing. You won’t ‘educate’ people out of their insanity; because they are not rational. Collectively walking off the job in self sacrifice would work though … if entire populations were willing to do it all at once (which it clearly appears they aren’t.) So on it goes.

      Reply
      • Dreamer

         /  February 13, 2017

        I guess another way to put this is to say; what good does it do to march in a big protest on a Sunday … and then turn around and go back to your job working for the very same system you’re protestingagainst on the following Monday? That seems senseless to me.

        If the millions of people marching in that women’s protest had never returned to work … ever … now that could have really altered a few things. Their system is completely dependent on the wage slaves, that’s what underpins the whole system is people’s passive compliance to it.

        That’s what concerned me about that ridiculous NBL blog. People cheering for collapse and calamity … the end … all the while still sitting at their office jobs collecting their paychecks for being part of the problem. Some even gave investment advice, of all the silly ironies. That’s insane. Your paycheck is just blood money in exchange for compromising yourself to the system. If it’s really this serious … then why keep going back to work? That’s the very thing that keeps it grinding on … right over the cliff.

        People should really just be abandoning this compromised system, yet nobody ever takes that step. Why is that? Self sacrifice has never been a very popular notion I suppose.

        Now you have Trump in office, and people still keep enabling this insane system by going to their jobs and supporting it. There’s your crazy. You do have a choice you know.

        Reply
      • mulga mumblebrain

         /  February 13, 2017

        Dreamer, I had non-work imposed on me a couple of years ago when, as often happens to casual workers here, I was stabbed in the back by a couple of liars, and administrations that plainly did not wish to pay the rates going to long experience workers, preferring foreign workers imported to drive down wages and conditions. I live on my super, and luckily own my house and land.
        So I just garden and read, and that’s fine. I see movies on cheap days, and try to avoid the rat-race. A trip to town, a walk through the Botanic Gardens, a visit to a museum or gallery, or the food market for a curry, suits me fine. We have to bring the system down by non co-operation, or it will fall due to its own cancerous nature, taking most of Life on Earth with it. I proselytise this approach wherever I can, and usually the reaction is stupefied disbelief, even incomprehension, but not always. If we could start a movement, I think it would gain momentum, particularly if we include mutual support, sharing food, company, other assets etc, to ease the transition. Something like the Transition Towns, but more widespread and deeper in degree and extent. One example I heard of on the radio was permaculture gangs descending on properties to rehabilitate their gardens and set them up as food producing, with vegie patches, food forests, wicking beds, chooks and shade trees to cool the house etc. It sounds like good fun and a chance to make friends, too.

        Reply
      • Dreamer

         /  February 14, 2017

        Thanks for sharing your story mulga. I suppose it was a series of events that lead me to walk out of the machinery too. Ha, I don’t even own land or a home though. It truly is a series of inexplicable circumstances, ones I could never even have foreseen, that keep me alive now. That’s sort of what I think people have been distracted from realizing … that maybe you don’t really need ‘them.’ Maybe you never did.

        To be fair, I guess all the protesters are probably just still back at the stage of thinking they actually live in a democracy, of thinking that who they vote for makes any difference at all, or that somehow this is all just some massive oversight that they can correct if they stand there and shout reason. I was there once. This isn’t about reason though, I believe it’s about a sickness of mind … a delusion of the ego.

        I suppose drastic measures are only adopted once people realize that it’s always been a complete sham, one designed for exploitation of the poor by the rich and powerful, and that no change is ever going to come down from within ‘the system.’ That’s all a protest is, is people asking politely for change … please. I think we’re at the point where they just laugh at that though. I think they’ve always just laughed at that. Pretending to appease seems to be one of their greatest ruses … a bone here, a bone there … but never anything substantial (unless they have an angle they can exploit out of it, like you pointed out about carbon taxes.)

        Passive resistance means stopping participating in it … all of it, at any level. Yes, a lot of people would probably starve and freeze to death. I guess maybe that’s why nobody does it. Funny though, how that chickadee outside in the -40C, with his little stick legs, doesn’t freeze to death. Maybe the chickadee knows something about how the tao flows that we’ve all just forgotten in our disconnection from nature.

        Thanks for your response mulga. I don’t even really know what else to say anymore. That’s why I don’t chime in here very often.. It’s like watching a bad movie sometimes, one you’ve seen before and already know the ending to. Humans sure do seem to excel at denial and aversion to change. Peace peeps. Keep up the good fight, it’s the right intention to have. :/

        Reply
        • mulga mumblebrain

           /  February 16, 2017

          I rented for years, Dreamer. I grew a garden in every place (it all grew out of growing my own smoko to save money). Every one was trashed after I moved out. One I went back to, and the garden was a huge pile of green debris piled up in the street. The neighbour told me, tearfully, that it took two of them a whole day to cut down or dig everything up. My best garden was at my parent’s place. Lots of rare plants, shade, flowers etc.
          I flew over it a few months ago. I couldn’t see anything but a silver roof. The neighbours sent a message, via my sister, who still keeps in touch with their sister, that the new owners had demolished our house, bulldozed the entire garden, and built a gargantuan monstrosity over much of the large block. There appears to be a rather deep antipathy to living things among many of my fellow citizens.

  77. Shawn Redmond

     /  February 13, 2017

    Lovely here this morning. Blizzard warning for the whole province all day. Storm surge warnings for the southern coast from Shelburne county to Halifax on this mornings high tide and the whole Atlantic coast for this evenings high tide. Presently wind E 65 kms gusting to 110 kms, and snowing. Forecast winds later 70 kms gusting to 110 to 120 kms on the coast and 60+ cm of snow. Wave heights presently 4 metres forecast to reach near 8 metres later today.

    Reply
  78. Shawn Redmond

     /  February 13, 2017

    Attended a workshop Sunday afternoon on SLR with Samantha Page from the Ecology Action Centre. The focus of the meeting was to explain a bit about the causes and crowd source for ideas as to what to do moving forward. As well as laying out maps of St. Margaret’s Bay and identify areas of concern over SLR and storm surge, in an effort to come up with a strategy to put forward to our provincial government. This province has no management plan for SLR or over land flooding. These workshops are taking place in communities around the province. The presentation was based on the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios all though they readily admitted the 8.5 was probably optimistic and rates of rise are going to be problematic well before 2100. The other speaker was Kelly Schnare from the Sierra Club explaining their program #highwatermark which is encouraging people to share stories about their experiences around the changing coastlines. This will be used to compile an oral history of the changes that have been going on undocumented. Helping to understand rates of erosion and rise. As well as setting up interactive centres to help educate people about what’s going on below the surface of the water.

    Reply
    • Shawn Redmond

       /  February 13, 2017

      I forgot to mention that the workshop was put together by our local Transition movement.
      http://www.transitionbay.ca/event/your-compassionate-coastline-sea-level-rise-in-st-margarets-bay-what-we-can-do/

      Reply
    • Cate

       /  February 14, 2017

      Shawn, I’m glad to see that there Is at least some grass-roots concern in at least one part of NS.

      At a time when NL has experienced unprecedented overland and tidal flooding and huge associated private property and public infrastructure damage because of the extreme weather typical of climate change, there is still no public discourse on strategy here. We really need to follow NS’s lead, however small and tentative it may be. The Sierra Club program sounds accessible and doable, for sure, for a start. But planning for RCP 8.5, and well before 2100—-that’s pretty much worst case. How to even get a hold on that.

      Reply
  79. Cate

     /  February 13, 2017

    Way to go, Suzanne! Wish I could have joined you in saluting the Lunatic

    in other news: “More than 180,000 people were evacuated Sunday afternoon after officials spotted severe erosion on the emergency spillway at Lake Oroville. Officials warned the emergency spillway was in danger of failing and could send a 30-foot wall of water into communities along the Feather River Basin.”

    Order continues in effect. More here:

    http://www.kcra.com/article/evacuation-orders-issued-for-low-levels-of-oroville/8735215

    Reply
  80. wili

     /  February 13, 2017

    If it keep on rainin’ the levee gonna break
    f it keep on rainin’ the levee gonna break
    Everybody saying this is a day only the Lord could make

    Reply
  81. wili

     /  February 13, 2017

    .”..Butte County Sheriff Kory Honea said officials made the decision to nearly double the volume of water being released from the dam to 100,000 cubic feet per second to drain the lake quickly and stop erosion at the top of the auxiliary spillway.

    “Hopefully, that will release pressure on the emergency spillway and they’ll find a repair to prevent a complete failure,” Honea said Sunday. “[THE] SITUATION IS DYNAMIC AND COULD CHANGE ANY TIME.” [my caps]

    The lake had been lowered to 2 feet below the top of the emergency spillway thanks to the increased volume of water being released through the dam’s main spillway, Oroville Mayor Linda Dahlmeier told ABC News.

    The lake level is being lowered at a rate of about 4 inches per hour, the mayor said, adding that the erosion area has stopped progressing and stabilized.”

    http://abcnews.go.com/US/thousands-evacuated-calif-dam-danger-failure/story?id=45450195

    Reply
  82. Shawn Redmond

     /  February 13, 2017

    Massive piece of ice coming lose from in front of the Shirase Glacier in todays EOSDIS worldview shot. A large lead breaking a chunk about 30 miles+/- by 200 miles from open ocean right up to the toe of the glacier.
    https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&t=2017-02-13&z=3&v=1273209.0550076785,1692560.279441122,1539193.0550076785,1869968.279441122

    Reply
    • Jeremy in Wales

       /  February 13, 2017

      Beat me to it Shawn!
      I would add that the break-up of the ice seems to be unusual, compare 13/02/17 http://go.nasa.gov/2kLYaEM
      with 13/02/15
      http://go.nasa.gov/2kMetkK
      This is one of the rare ice free areas in Antartica and on one of the rocky islands is the Japanese base Showa. At this time of year the daily average maximum is -0.5°C, some above freezing temperatures will occur, but the ice free areas are probably a result of ablation. However the melt of sea ice all around Antartica seems to be well in advance of previous years.

      Reply
  83. coloradobob

     /  February 13, 2017

    Climate change is already battering hundreds of animal species

    Climate change is already harming around 700 species of mammals and birds. That means that warming is not just a theoretical future threat, and conservation work must focus on the “here and now”, says a new study.

    It reviewed 136 studies published between 1990 and 2015, as well as modelling the risks to animals on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. It concluded that almost half of terrestrial mammal species and nearly a quarter of all bird species could already be negatively affected, without us even realising.

    “We have the knowledge to take action,” says Lee Hannah, a conservation ecologist and senior researcher at Conservation International, a non-profit based in Arlington, Virginia. “Truly massive climate-triggered insect outbreaks have killed millions of trees in North America. Heat flashes in the oceans have killed corals and changed coral reefs in every ocean.”

    A third of all species may be at risk of extinction, says Hannah, and the study shows the changes are happening already.

    Link

    Reply
  84. Vic

     /  February 13, 2017

    Seems only conservatives can get away with using props in Australia’s Parliament.

    Reply
  85. wharf rat

     /  February 13, 2017

    Dam hippies

    Oroville Dam: Feds and state officials ignored warnings 12 years ago

    Three environmental groups — the Friends of the River, the Sierra Club and the South Yuba Citizens League — filed a motion with the federal government on Oct. 17, 2005, as part of Oroville Dam’s relicensing process, urging federal officials to require that the dam’s emergency spillway be armored with concrete, rather than remain as an earthen hillside

    The groups filed the motion with FERC, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. They said that the dam, built and owned by the state of California, and finished in 1968, did not meet modern safety standards because in the event of extreme rain and flooding, fast-rising water would overwhelm the main concrete spillway, then flow down the emergency spillway, and that could cause heavy erosion that would create flooding for communities downstream, but also could cause a failure, known as “loss of crest control.”

    FERC rejected that request, however, after the state Department of Water Resources, and the water agencies that would likely have had to pay the bill for the upgrades, said they were unnecessary.

    Federal officials at the time said that the emergency spillway was designed to handle 350,000 cubic feet per second and the concerns were overblown.

    more
    http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/12/oroville-dam-feds-and-state-officials-ignored-warnings-12-years-ago/

    Reply
  86. Vic

     /  February 14, 2017

    An unholy alliance of Australian advocacy groups have teamed up to plead for energy policy sanity from the Federal Government. Something’s gotta give.

    Australian Aluminium Council
    Australian Conservation Foundation
    Australian Council of Social Services
    Australian Council of Trade Unions
    Australian Energy Council
    The Australian Industry Group
    Australian Steel Institute
    Business Council of Australia
    Cement Industry Federation
    Chemistry Australia
    Clean Energy Council
    Energy Efficiency Council
    Energy Networks Australia
    Energy Users Association of Australia
    Investor Group on Climate Change
    St Vincent de Paul Society National Council
    The Climate Institute
    WWF Australia

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-14/energy-australia-boss-worried-about-power-bills/8267070

    http://www.bca.com.au/media/no-room-for-partisan-politics-in-energy

    Reply
  87. Abel Adamski

     /  February 14, 2017

    http://www.foodprocessing.com.au/content/ingredients/news/wheat-farmers-offset-climate-change-impact-with-technology-but-for-how-long–908288272

    Australia’s average wheat yields, which more than tripled between 1900 and 1990, did not increase from 1990 to 2015. The research found that during this 25-year period, the nation’s yield potential actually declined by 27%.

    CSIRO team leader Dr Zvi Hochman said the study found that Australia’s wheat-growing zone had experienced an average rainfall decline of 2.8 mm or 28% per cropping season, and a maximum daily temperature increase of around 1℃ from 1990 to 2015.

    These observations are consistent with the higher end of future climate change projections for the wheat zone over the coming 26 years.

    Reply
  88. Dreamer

     /  February 14, 2017

    For anyone interested, here’s a decent ongoing blog discussion of the Oroville dam situation. Lotsa good info and pictures and digging into the details here. Are we surprised to find out that they were warned to fix the damaged spillway a decade ago … and didn’t? You know, the usual … budgetary reasons. It’s the sign of our times (grasping and hanging onto money.) https://www.metabunk.org/oroville-dam-spillway-failure.t8381/

    Reply
  89. wharf rat

     /  February 14, 2017

    Donald Drumpf: Making Russia Great Again

    How a Russian Steel Oligarch and Putin Ally Is Profiting from the Keystone XL Pipeline

    DeSmog has uncovered that 40 percent of the steel created so far was manufactured in Canada by a subsidiary of Evraz, a company partly owned by Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, who is a close ally of Putin and a Trump family friend. Evraz has also actively lobbied against provisions which would mandate that Keystone XL’s steel be made in the U.S.

    https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/02/13/abramovitch-putin-keystone-xl-steel

    Reply
  90. coloradobob

     /  February 14, 2017

    This is February?
    80°F in Denver, 99° in Oklahoma, 66° in Iceland, 116° in Australia
    By: Bob Henson , 4:17 PM GMT on February 14, 2017

    https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3558#commenttop

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  February 14, 2017

      Just nuts –

      He adds that temperatures in the free atmosphere over central Sweden were analyzed above the freezing mark on Monday at heights of up to 11,000 feet.

      Reply
  91. coloradobob

     /  February 14, 2017

    Australia: pyrocumulus on Sun 12 as seen from satellite, animated gif:

    Reply
  92. coloradobob

     /  February 14, 2017

    Coastal Everglades, deprived of fresh water, near unhealthy ‘tipping point’

    http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article132530084.html

    Reply
  93. coloradobob

     /  February 14, 2017

    ‘There’s a lot at stake here.’ US Antarctic expert Eric Rignot on climate science in the age of Trump

    US-based glaciologist Eric Rignot is in New Zealand this week to talk about polar ice sheets and their potential to add to predicted sea level rise. He tells Veronika Meduna that it’s more important than ever to discuss climate science and what it’s like to be a climate scientist during the Trump presidency.

    Link

    Reply
  94. coloradobob

     /  February 14, 2017

    Climate Diaries: Tracking “irreversible” ice flows in Antarctica

    CBS News

    Reply
  95. coloradobob

     /  February 14, 2017

    Extreme Ice Survey – A program of Earth Vision Institute

    Link

    Reply
  96. coloradobob

     /  February 14, 2017

    ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

    Reply
  97. coloradobob

     /  February 14, 2017

    Sea Ice Hits Record Lows at Both Poles

    Arctic temperatures have finally started to cool off after yet another winter heat wave stunted sea ice growth over the weekend. The repeated bouts of warm weather this season have stunned even seasoned polar researchers, and could push the Arctic to a record low winter peak for the third year in a row.

    Meanwhile, Antarctic sea ice set an all-time record low on Monday in a dramatic reversal from the record highs of recent years.

    Link

    Reply
  98. In southern Arizona, we expect more rain and snow–in northern Arizona– this weekend. Same sytem bringing rain to California and Oroville this week, may it notbe enough to break that dam. Our weather continues mostly seasonal, we can fluctuate a lot in end of February and mid-March between our cold–60s–and our presummer warm–80s. We dont seem to have any 70s weather so much anymore and a very short spring and like no autumns anymore.

    I am doing my chanting, yoga and Buddhist meditations, more as it helps me stay centered and more andmore Ifeel like even as individuals we are coming apart in our own bodies and souls. I have never felt so pulled in so many directions as everything else disintigrates around me.

    Be in the present tostay whole, Sheri

    Reply
  99. Genomik

     /  February 15, 2017

    Interesting. Toshiba purchased Westinghouse to make and manage Nuclear plants and they are hemorrhaging money.

    Long Live Solar!

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2017/02/14/toshiba-chairman-resigns-its-nuclear-power-losses-mount/k8GRrO03DoVq2AaZHHRYIM/story.html

    Reply
  100. coloradobob

     /  February 15, 2017

    Climate change: Scientists sad, frustrated as extreme weather becomes the new norm

    Call it fatigue, call it frustration, but some of the best brains in the country are fed up.

    Australia’s leading climate scientists joined their New Zealand counterparts in Canberra for a four-day conference last week, but dark clouds lingered over their discussions.

    The theme of the conference was “Australasian weather, climate and oceans: past, present and future”.

    And global warming was never far from the guests’ lips.

    “There is definitely what you would call ‘climate fatigue’ on the part of scientists,” said Dr Andrew Glikson, from the Australian National University’s School of Archaeology and Anthropology.

    “There were hundreds of scientists there, and my impression is while we continue to do the science as best we can, there is a fatigue when it comes to arguing in public.
    “It’s definitely a concern. There are people who don’t think in scientific terms and don’t want to accept the basic laws of nature, or have some vested interest.

    “You can explain to them as long as you like but if they don’t wish to understand, they won’t.”

    Link

    Reply
  101. coloradobob

     /  February 15, 2017

    Canadian glaciers now major contributor to sea level change, UCI study shows

    Nine times more ice is melting annually due to warmer temperatures

    Irvine, Calif., Feb. 14, 2017 — Ice loss from Canada’s Arctic glaciers has transformed them into a major contributor to sea level change, new research by University of California, Irvine glaciologists has found.

    From 2005 to 2015, surface melt off ice caps and glaciers of the Queen Elizabeth Islands grew by an astonishing 900 percent, from an average of three gigatons to 30 gigatons per year, according to results published today in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

    https://news.uci.edu/research/canadian-glaciers-now-major-contributor-to-sea-level-change-uci-study-shows/

    Reply
  102. coloradobob

     /  February 15, 2017

    Why researchers are hunting killer whales in the Antarctic

    In this latest installment of the “Climate Diaries” series, CBS News correspondent Mark Phillips is in Antarctica, following a group of researchers chasing killer whales. They are using new technology, including drones, to learn about the health of the ocean’s top predator. Phillips shows us how the Antarctic Ocean’s dwellers are experiencing the effects of climate change.

    Link

    Reply
  103. coloradobob

     /  February 15, 2017

    A classic example of “proxy records” –

    Ancient Judean Jars Offer Insights Into Earth’s Magnetic Field Strength –

    In ancient Judea, potters often created jars big enough to hold wine or olive oil and sent them to kings as tax payment.
    Even as rulers came and went over the years, potters kept making the same ceramic jars. Little did they know, however, that their creations would someday contribute to science.
    Indeed, these 3,000-year-old ancient jars provide some clues into the strength of Earth’s magnetic field, a new study in Israel revealed. It’s as if the jars themselves hold records of the waning and fluctuating strength of the magnetic field over time, researchers said.

    – See more at: Link

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  February 15, 2017

      You set me off on a long trail with that link CB, very interesting articles there re pole reversal, it is a site I often visit but missed that particular thread of science

      Reply
  104. coloradobob

     /  February 15, 2017

    El Niño: California Beach Erosion In 2015/16 Highest Ever Recorded

    SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) — El Niño didn’t deliver pounding rain, but it gave California’s coastline a powerful beating during the winter of 2015/16. Rainfall levels were lower than anticipated, but beach erosion was the highest in more than 145 years, according a study released Tuesday by the U.S. Geological Survey.

    Scientists studied 1243 miles along the West Coast from Washington to Southern California, making 3-D surface maps, GPS topographical surveys and measuring sand, wave and water levels at each beach, and published their findings online in the journal, “Nature Communications.”

    Link

    Reply
  105. Suzanne

     /  February 15, 2017

    At the Guardian this morning:
    “Trump’s likely science advisor calls climate scientists “glassy eyed cult” ”
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/15/trump-science-adviser-william-happer-climate-change-cult

    The man tipped as frontrunner for the role of science adviser to Donald Trump has described climate scientists as “a glassy-eyed cult” in the throes of a form of collective madness.

    William Happer, an eminent physicist at Princeton University, met with Trump last month to discuss the post and says that if he were offered the job he would take it. Happer is highly regarded in the academic community, but many would view his appointment as a further blow to the prospects of concerted international action on climate change.

    Reply
    • Witchee

       /  February 15, 2017

      I could not even read through the entire article, it made me so sick and so angry. I don’t even know what to do anymore. Some days everything seems pretty pointless.

      Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  February 15, 2017

      The fecal matter is entering the rotating device.

      Reply
    • Leland Palmer

       /  February 15, 2017

      Happer is a really hard core paid denier, and is one of the intellectual leaders of climate science denial. He was on the advisory board of the George C. Marshall Institute for years, while they were getting money from ExxonMobil, I think. I know that the George C. Marshall Institute got something like a million dollars from ExxonMobil.

      He testified before Congress that the “Earth is in a CO2 drought”.

      In 2015, the George C. Marshall Instiute transferred defense related work to another think tank, but kept the climate related work under the name of The CO2 Coalition headed by Happer and a former chief operating officer of the American Petroleum Institute.

      http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060029290

      “The CO2 Coalition is headed by Happer and William O’Keefe, CEO and former chief operating officer of the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group.

      Happer was implicated this week in a Greenpeace sting operation where activists posing as consultants for a Middle Eastern energy company asked Happer and Frank Clemente, an emeritus sociology professor at Pennsylvania State University, to author a media-friendly report on the benefits of carbon dioxide emissions and the benefits of coal, respectively. Greenpeace released the email exchange this week, which throws back the curtains on the opaque world of fossil fuel funding of contrarian views on climate science.

      When the “energy company” raised the issue of remuneration for the report, Happer suggested that it donate to the CO2 Coalition. Peabody Energy Corp. similarly funded the CO2 Coalition in exchange for his testimony at a regulatory hearing in St. Paul, Minn., on the social cost of carbon, Happer wrote.

      “I told Peabody I’d be glad to write testimony for them, but it [the testimony] is what I think; I don’t care what they [Peabody] think,” Happer told ClimateWire. “And if they want to pay me, I’d be delighted to take the money for our little coalition.”

      Peabody did not respond to ClimateWire’s request for comment. It was the target of a two-year investigation by the New York attorney general for improper disclosure to investors about the financial risks of climate change.

      When Greenpeace’s “energy company” told Happer that it would prefer to donate anonymously to the CO2 Coalition, Happer suggested that it send the money through DonorsTrust, a conservative nonprofit that routinely channels money to organizations that cast doubt on mainstream climate science.”

      Oh, just launder the money through the Donor’s Trust, said Happer to GreenPeace during their sting operation.

      Reply
    • mulga mumblebrain

       /  February 16, 2017

      ‘ Happer is highly regarded in the academic community…’Doesn’t that just about sum up the learned helplessness of the ‘academic community’. Cowards, or opportunists, or climate denialists-take your pick. We are on the cusp of self-destruction and the silence from academia is deafening.

      Reply
      • Well, I would hope that the academic community will contain more activists in the future. I hope more scientists run for office.

        Happer is a well regarded physicist, who has apparently done very sound work in physics. he is a professor at Princeton, and has many published papers in physics on optics and lasers. He was involved with the use of lasers to create a laser generated sodium guide star that can be used by adaptive optics systems to cancel out optical distortions, useful in astronomy and the star wars directed energy weapons program.

        Unfortunately, he truly believes that climate sensitivity has been overestimated by a factor of three and that the CO2 fertilization effect will make increased CO2 levels good for the planet. He thinks that doubling CO2 will result in a 1 degree C increase in temperature.

        His take on the Greenpeace sting operation is that the fossil fuel corporations were willing to pay him for saying what he already believes anyway, and that his CO2 Coalition only pays his travel expenses. He is also an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, and may or may not get money from that. He is has offered to work for $250 dollars per hour for fossil fuel corporations, so he’s not getting rich, but only to publish his own views.

        http://www.thebestschools.org/special/karoly-happer-dialogue-global-warming/william-happer-interview/

        So, he is apparently that most devastating of opponents – wrong, apparently incapable of changing his mind, and in his own way an honest man.

        He is 77 years old, and many of his views, many of which have become climate science denier talking points, have been shown to be wrong.

        Reply
        • Happer being 77 yo, he may have looked at the photos of Robert Oppenheimer in his heyday and after the US government go through with him and decided he didn’t want to go there.

        • I was thinking about the Senate confirmation hearings, if they happen for Happer, I think the Democrats should go after Happer about his laundering money through Donor’s Trust. They should ask him for a list of testimony and work he has done with the money laundered through Donors Trust and Donors Capital Fund. That will at least allow the environmentally friendly press to write about those funds, that routinely launder hundreds of millions of dollars of money funding climate science denial.

          Not even the IRS, apparently, knows who the secretive “Donors” are, although the Kochs are generally acknowledged to be involved.

          Happer, being an adjunct scholar for the Koch Brothers Cato Institute, apparently knows all about the Donors funds. It would be interesting to see how much he knows about these funds and who the donors are.

          Another thing they should go after him for is his association and eventual directorship of the the George C. Marshall institute and their funding by ExxonMobil. Total funding that Conservative Transparency lists for the George C. Marshall institute is about 11 million dollars, with funding from ExxonMobil of 655,000 dollars, but more from the Koch foundations (Koch, Lambe) and even more from the Scaife foundations (Sarah Scaife, Carthage). Of course, private contributions are not listed. But Happer would know who those private contributors to the George C. Marshall Institute were.

          http://conservativetransparency.org/basic-search/?q=George+C.+Marshall+Institute&sf%5B%5D=candidate&sf%5B%5D=donor&sf%5B%5D=recipient&sf%5B%5D=transaction&sf%5B%5D=finances&order_t=contribution+DESC#transactions

          The Senators should ask him how much he got of that money, but be prepared if the answer is “not much”. Happer appears to honestly believe he is right, and does not seem to be motivated primarily by money.

          Having taken lots of fossil fuel money, though, having to admit he was wrong and damaged the planet by being wrong about climate change might be impossible, at his age and with his temperment.

  106. wharf rat

     /  February 15, 2017

    Residents evacuated in Oroville Dam crisis reoccupy downstream towns
    http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Residents-evacuated-in-Oroville-Dam-crisis-10932494.php

    Reply
  107. wharf rat

     /  February 15, 2017

    The West’s coal giant is closing way ahead of schedule
    on Monday, the plant’s four private utility owners, led by the Salt River Project, voted to shut down the plant at the end of 2019, some 25 years ahead of schedule

    http://grist.org/article/the-wests-coal-giant-is-closing-way-ahead-of-schedule/

    Reply
  108. coloradobob

     /  February 15, 2017

    264. barbamz
    6:50 PM GMT on February 15, 2017
    5 +
    Quoting 254. Patrap:

    The GOP House just offered a Bill to TERMINATE the EPA…

    I’m utterly shocked. This just sucked the air out of my room in Germany, really.

    The Environmental Protection Agency shall terminate on December 31, 2018.
    By Mark Sumner, Wednesday Feb 15, 2017 – 5:01 PM
    The bill, introduced by Florida Republican Matt Gaetz and co-sponsored by Kentucky’s Thomas Massie, Mississipp’s Steven Palazzo, and Georgia’s Barry Loudermilk doesn’t bother with anything like wondering what happens to the data the agency collects, or the enforcement the agency carries out. It doesn’t sweat the details of employees or contracts. There’s nothing about what happens to the Clean Air Act, or the Clean Water Act, or the Endangered Species Act, or – anything at all.
    Just ‘terminated.’
    Of course, Republicans already have an alternative means of destroying the EPA in place. Under Scott Pruitt, the plan is already underway to subvert and pervert the agency’s mission, to make sure it is critically understaffed, to turn it into a prime example of a non-functional bureaucracy.
    So it’s likely that Gaetz’s bill won’t get the support it needs. This time.

    House Republicans want an investigation into EPA officials using encrypted chat apps
    by Colin Lecher@colinlecher Feb 15, 2017, 11:29am EST

    People Show Their Love For The EPA With Thousands Of Valentines
    Roses are red, climate change is real.
    02/14/2017 06:33 pm ET | Updated 4 hours ago

    EPA Veterans Mobilize to Defend Agency’s Work, Bracing for Trump’s Impact
    Former employees of the Environmental Protection Agency, who typically steer clear of politics, have begun advocating to support the work in Trump’s crosshairs.
    Feb 15, 2017

    Reply
    • Suzanne

       /  February 15, 2017

      The Republicans will not be happy until our air and water is brown…and every single regulation that protects us is gone. I swear, I really think they want a Dystopian world.

      Reply
      • Cate

         /  February 16, 2017

        Well, it fits. Bannon has been famously quoted as saying he wants to bring everything “crashing down.”

        Reply
        • Abel Adamski

           /  February 16, 2017

          Exactly, create a power and organisational vacuum so that he or someone like him (maybe Pence) can be installed as the messiah to save the world from chaos and collapse of civilisation.
          Revelations antichrist rising from the masses to rule the world

  109. Leland Palmer

     /  February 15, 2017

    An opinion article in the Sacramento Bee making the connection between global weirding and the Oroville Dam crisis, from the Sierra Club and Friends of the River. These are the groups who warned California about erosion over the Oroville Dam emergency spillway years ago:

    Lessons California should learn from Oroville dam debacle:

    http://www.sacbee.com/opinion/op-ed/soapbox/article132875519.html#storylink=cpy

    “BY KATHRYN PHILLIPS AND RON STORK
    Special to The Bee
    The Oroville Dam emergency spillway debacle is a wake-up call to California.

    If we heed the call, we may be able to avoid what could certainly be other disasters and wrong turns in the state water system as we head into an age typified by extreme weather events associated with climate change.

    In 2005, our organizations, Sierra Club and Friends of the River, warned the Federal Emergency Regulatory Commission, the agency responsible for relicensing hydroelectricity dams, that the earthen emergency spillway on the dam was too dangerous. We said it needed a concrete lining and that FERC should require the dam’s operator, the California Department of Water Resources, to build that lining.

    The Yuba County Water Agency noted in a technical report on the dam in 2002 that using the emergency spillway could create severe erosion over 50 to 70 acres, sending dirt, rocks and other debris shooting into the waterway below at a rate and scale that could disrupt operations of the huge Oroville-Thermolito Dam complex.

    More than 11 years ago, DWR rejected our concerns. This week, we’ve watched a frightening scene unfold as the emergency spillway began to flood and erode, requiring nearly 200,000 Californians to be evacuated from their homes and businesses…

    …Even so, a major state agency responsible for managing dams dismissed a chance to adopt measures that would make the Oroville dam safer as we entered a new climate-affected era.

    Currently, California rivers bear more than 1,300 dams. Most people agree that the cost-effective places to build dams in the state have been taken.

    Yet most of those dams, like the Oroville dam, are decades old. Some are seismically unsafe and can’t hold the amount of water they were meant to hold. Others haven’t had silt removed routinely and have shrunken capacity. Still others need structural updating.

    In short, there are a lot of troubled dams that need attention in California.

    But against this backdrop, the conversation within the Brown administration and at DWR has focused on building new dams and tunnels.

    In 2014, voters passed a broad water bond. To get the two-thirds vote needed to get the bond through the Legislature on onto the ballot, the governor insisted on including $2.7 billion in that bond for water storage. Storage was defined in a way to allow proponents of several dam projects that environmentalists have long opposed to have a shot at some funding.

    Now it’s time to reject the new-build proponents and focus on ways to use that bond money to make sure existing dams are safe and provide the storage they originally promised. It’s time to use that money for south-of-Delta groundwater storage that will create many times the value and regional resilience of any new dams.

    California’s policymakers – and the agencies like DWR that are supposed to put those policies to work – need to bring their water system thinking up to date.

    The last few years of drought, followed by a year of unusually heavy storms, show that the days of predictable weather patterns are gone. Climate change has taken hold.

    Oroville shows that sloppy attention to public safety and the environment won’t do.”

    This should be a wake up call for attention to hydroelectric dams nationwide, and worldwide, I think. Maximum rate of inflow calculations for dams need to be updated due to global weirding. Once in 1000 year events are happening much more often, these days. Here in California we’ve had a once in over a thousand year drought, followed back to back by a record precipitation year, coupled with a potential for warm storms that can rapidly melt snowpack. Certainly, the emergency spillway on the Oroville dam should be structurally sound indefinitely, for any amount of emergency spillover operation, and the main spillway structurally sound indefinitely for 150,000 CFS of outflow.

    Reply
    • Bill H

       /  February 15, 2017

      Bizarrely, Anthony Watts has given his latest screed a title that could have come straight from Robert’s pen: “Atmospheric River taking aim on beleaguered #OrovilleDam”. He’s been running some nonsense about the end of the extreme Calif. drought “proving the alarmists wrong”, oblivious to the fact that the current deluge is exactly the sort of whipliash weather we can expect in an atmosphere turbocharged with the extra latent heat resulting from increased water vapour levels.

      Reply
      • Leland Palmer

         /  February 15, 2017

        Yes. What drives storms? Heat of condensation. Right out of the textbooks. Higher water and atmospheric temperatures means more water vapor in the atmosphere means more energy to drive storms- right out of the textbooks.

        The Oroville Dam is a teachable moment about global weirding. Anthony Watts isn’t missing his chance to try to spin it, but the Washington Post, as usual, fails to make any sort of connection, even a probabilistic one, between the Oroville Dam incident and climate change.

        Truly, this is a lesson from nature. Upgrades of existing hydroelectric dams and water storage dams are more cost effective than building new ones. We need to turn away from new projects until we have the existing infrastructure in good shape, IMO – and we need to recalculate the risk for dam operators, because thousand year precipitation events happen much more often than that, these days.

        Reply
  110. Suzanne

     /  February 15, 2017

    With the constant barrage against the Environment…Science…Workers…Immigrants…Mexicans..Women…and on and on….
    The only thing we can all “hope” for is that the Flynn resignation is only the tip of the iceberg..and that this will lead to Trump being found guilty of working with Russia.
    That is the only thing I can hold on to right now….that Trump gets impeached.

    Yes, I know Pence is NOT a bad second choice..but an impeachment would weaken the Republicans..and hopefully, weaken their agenda giving the Democrats a good chance of turning Congress BLUE in 2018.

    I just read that Trump’s constant attack against the Intelligence Community has that group vowing to unleash “all” that they have on this Regime, which could lead to his impeachment and possibly, even jail. Fingers crossed.

    Reply
  111. NOAA now has the January monthly CO2 average for Manua Loa, and updated the year-over-year estimate. Now revised up to 2.99ppm for 2016, after 3.03ppm in 2015. Final number should be out a month from now.

    The global number for November is at 403.93ppm, 3.78ppm higher than the previous November.

    Reply
  112. coloradobob

     /  February 15, 2017

    330. Xandra
    11:13 PM GMT on February 15, 2017
    2 +
    altEPA:
    ‏@altUSEPA

    “Trump aiming to sign executive orders on EPA” – Preparing to install Pruitt’s drapes.

    Ready? Let’s see if we can get a few people out. Tweetstorm lined up.

    Ally Rally / Alt-Protest (AR/AP): 30+ Minutes of EPA ❤️ at an office near you on Thursday, Feb. 16. Specific office tweets to follow.

    AR/AP: Public congregation OUTSIDE (publicly visible) with simple ❤️ EPA ❤️signs. Smiles and happiness for EPA support of a clean America.

    AR/AP Goal 1: Peaceful appreciation of EPA’s work. No confrontation. No hate. No policy statements. Strict focus on ❤️

    AR/AP Goal 2: +ve Interaction with EPA employees as they leave work. Some mayl hang with +ve group for a few mins.

    AR/AP Goal 3: Pictures and videos of groups of people happy with the EPA (no blocking car or foot traffic, no feeding trolls)

    AR/AP Goal 4: A congregation of 10+ people at over 20 EPA offices across nation. Can we get this turnout on short notice?

    AR/AP: Publicity: Feel free to tell *local* media when and where you will meet. Dress in bright colors to make newsreels.

    https://twitter.com/altUSEPA

    Reply
  113. coloradobob

     /  February 15, 2017

    Reply
  114. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    I am convinced that –
    When this dam autopsy is completed , long, long after today , because we are still in the first act of the play.

    We find that the drought caused the ground under the primary spillway to subside. And it probably had plenty of cracks , when the support was lost. After 2011 drought in Texas , foundation repair became a big big business here.

    And water has a way of testing the best laid plans. It reminds me of sticking O-rings in ice water , and arriving at the solid rocket boosters failure.

    Reply
  115. Cate

     /  February 16, 2017

    OT, with apologies to Robert who will deal with this as he sees fit! 🙂

    1. On CNN today when the Netanyahus arrived at the WH, did you notice that the commentary stopped for some seconds as the two couples stood on the steps for the photo op? In the background could be heard lots of shouting, hollering, chanting—would that have been protestors? It felt very much like CNN was wanting us to hear that…..

    2. Snagged from the ASIF: https://twitter.com/roguepotusstaff

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  February 16, 2017

      The best thing that ever happened to Miles O’brien was the day CNN fired him. Tonight he covered the data archiving going on across America for PBS .
      So much in motion tonight, I’ll post the link later. A great report.

      Reply
    • Suzanne

       /  February 16, 2017

      Thanks Cate. And as long as we are off topic….Let me say, that this week February 18-26th is “Week of Action” as part of the #Resistance. Just got off a teleconference….and since Congress is off this next week they want us to:
      1. Go to your Reps. town hall events…
      2. If no town hall scheduled…find out why not…then contact media
      3. If no town hall…plan a “visit” with others in front of their Home Town Congressional office.
      4. If no town hall…plan your own with supporters…call media let them know why you are having one without your Rep. (One group put “Missing” posters all over town)
      5. Contact your Reps by phone, email and fax this week…with special focus on ACA..or whatever you feel is important.
      6. Write/email the editor of your hometown papers.
      7. MAKE NOISE….BE HEARD
      8. http://www.indivisibleguide.com for more information..and locations of a local group in your area.
      ________________________
      The Orange One is heading back to my neck of the woods AGAIN this weekend…There goes another $250,000 of our PB County taxpayers money. We will be welcoming him back into town with a protest on Friday evening.
      Also, he is apparently “starving” to campaign again..and is holding an “EGO RALLY” in Melbourne Fl on Saturday evening at the airport. A protest rally is being planned outside of the airport for anyone interested…here is the #RESIST Facebook page up there
      https://www.facebook.com/events/230736074000681/

      Okay…my OT rant is over…Thanks for your patience 🙂

      Reply
    • Cate

       /  February 16, 2017

      So, a caveat: “roguepotusstaff” on Twitter may, or may not, be Bannnon.

      No surprise there, of course.

      Reply
      • Hilary

         /  February 17, 2017

        Cate, thanks for keeping us up with the local protests in FL. And to read of the Donald’s tweet about the ‘crowds of supporters’! I saw this clip by John Oliver

        & thought maybe your group should send him some pics to go with his tweet. Loved the mental image of you with that naughty middle finger!!

        Reply
  116. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    The Reptilian-Lizard Brain:
    “The emotional alarm center for the brain”.

    There’s a Mexican / Jihadi under your bed , but climate change is a world wide plot to make Rosie O’Donnell president of the world

    Reply
  117. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    Running on two threads . less key strokes. More cross info.

    To the mods ……………..
    “It’s wild tyme , I’m doing things that don’t have a name yet”

    Jefferson Airplane

    Now to what Miles said on PBS tonight –
    Very important .

    How scientists are scrambling to safeguard vital environmental data

    JUDY WOODRUFF: Almost since the day President Trump was sworn in, members of a loosely aligned grassroots movement composed of academics, programmers, researchers and scientists have been archiving government data they fear could disappear.

    Miles O’Brien looks in on one of those efforts for our weekly science series, Leading Edge.

    The PBS NewsHour

    Reply
  118. Cate

     /  February 16, 2017

    http://www2.cnrs.fr/en/2881.htm

    “Risk of rapid North Atlantic cooling in 21st century greater than previously estimated”

    Researchers at the universities of Bordeaux and Southampton “developed a new algorithm to analyse the 40 climate models” considered by the latest IPCC report. Their findings raise the probability of North Atlantic cooling this century to nearly 50%. Their area of focus was the Labrador Sea and they will be testing their projections against real data from the international OSNAP project, currently underway.

    Reply
  119. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    Something is afoot –

    I tried not to hate brown people , I tried not to hate black people , I tried not to hate white people, I tried not to hate yellow people .
    But I really hate orange people.
    And I’ve always hated orange stupid people what ever color they come in.

    Come folks , it’s your Earth , stand up .

    Reply
  120. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    Bing Go

    Reply
  121. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    Seems I’ve got to have a change of scene
    ‘Cause every night I have the strangest dreams
    Imprisoned by the way it could have been
    Left here on my own or so it seems
    I’ve got to leave before I start to scream
    Won’t someone lock the door and turn the key
    Feeling alright
    I’m not feeling too good myself
    Feeling alright
    I’m not feeling that good myself

    Reply
  122. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    Reply
  123. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    Life is tear scared series of events , and in between there are smiles, and hopes.

    Reply
  124. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    The best time of my life. I had leather class on Saturday morning in Torrance , California.
    I had 2 rules :

    “We can talk about everything but religion, and politics”

    Then I played Elmer ……………..

    Reply
  125. Tigertown

     /  February 16, 2017

    Parts of France under water.
    http://floodlist.com/europe/france-floods-aude-herault-tarn-february-2017
    Plenty of video footage.

    Reply
  126. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    Still fucked
    The Magnificent Seven – Elmer Bernstein

    Then we started the class . Sheryl came later .

    Reply
  127. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    Here it is .

    At one time I had 14 students . Everything from doll dresses , to black leather ball kink .

    The stupidest thing I ever did was to leave Torrance.

    Reply
  128. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    Cheetoe Boy , Putin’s Orange Poodle.
    The leader of the free world.

    Reply
  129. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    Let’s get this all get straight .
    This is not Washington .
    This not either Bush
    This even isn’t Nixon

    This is a pathological fool .

    Reply
  130. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    The world I live in ……………
    Banned
    You have been banned from WunderBlogs. This ban is in effect for the next 23 hours.

    Reply
  131. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    If I had a dime for every ban , I could drive to Plainview.

    Reply
  132. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    I once got banned for 39 hours. I can do this standing on my head

    Reply
  133. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    Notice it’s not 2 days, it’s 23 hours. This why I love them. They can really split hairs. The politics of dancing.

    Reply
  134. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    Reply
  135. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    This thing very very true …………

    Reply
    • Suzanne

       /  February 16, 2017

      Leon… my musical crush in H.S that lasted a lifetime. Can’t believe he is gone…and Leonard too. Two punches to the gut almost in unison.

      Reply
    • utoutback

       /  February 16, 2017

      Just watched “20 feet from Stardom” a great movie about backup singers. There was a piece on Joe Cocker (may he rest in peace) and his big group. There was Leon sittin’ at the piano.

      Reply
  136. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    The world is so rich. to lay down, and die, is not in our nature. Never ever. Ever.

    Reply
  137. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    To everyone who has despair , pick some creature that needs your help. Do not lay down . Do not quit. Never ever lay down and quit.

    Reply
  138. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    Never ever lay down and quit.

    Reply
  139. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    Tonight, I am the oldest, ugliest cheerleader in America, because I am right.

    Reply
  140. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    Never ever

    Reply
  141. Abel Adamski

     /  February 16, 2017

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/extraordinary-numbers-of-mosquitoes-give-way-to-record-ross-river-virus-season-in-nsw-20170216-gue86e

    The Little things
    Scientists believe NSW may be coming to the end of the biggest season for Ross River Virus in living memory, after inland flooding in spring created the perfect breeding conditions for mosquitoes that carry the disease.

    More than five times as many people contracted the virus in December and January than did over the same period last year, with 560 notifications compared to 96 last year. In the first six weeks of this year alone 430 people have been affected.
    The virus causes fever, headaches, chills and stiffness in the muscles in joints, and though it usually resolves within 10 days some patients experience symptoms for months.

    “We’ve seen a massive amount of mosquitoes – probably the highest we’ve ever seen,” Mr Doggett said.

    “Extraordinary numbers. And we’ve seen a massive increase in reports of Ross River Virus through the months of December and January.

    However, the disease is believed to be spread by mosquitoes that have bitten wallabies and kangaroos that carry the disease, so it is less prevalent in urban environments where there are fewer marsupial carriers.

    Reply
  142. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    Many ears ago , I saw Leon driving around the District . In his “lark” old man’s chair. I left him be. He was here to see Buddy, and I wasn’t going to screw that up.

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  February 16, 2017

      I am not a Bible Thumper , but the ghost of Buddy Holly looks over us here. You have no idea how much.

      Roll Away the Stone.

      Reply
  143. coloradobob

     /  February 16, 2017

    I get by with a little help from my friends.

    Reply
  144. Oh crap. I think they need to re-evacuate the population below the Oroville Dam.

    NOAA’s six day gridded forecast prediction shows 9 to 16 inches of precipitation for the Oroville watershed. An average of 12 inches of precipitation would result in about 2.4 million acre feet of runoff for the Oroville Dam watershed. Even if water releases are increased to 150,000 CFS, that’s only about 300,000 acre feet per day. So over six days, the dam can release only about 1.8 million acre feet of water, compared to maybe 2.4 million acre feet of inflow – not counting snow melt. The entire dam can only contain about 3.5 million acre feet of water, and they could get close to the entire volume of the dam in inflow, counting snow melt, over the next week or so.

    Most of this precipitation will be falling below 6,000 feet in elevation, meaning it will be falling as rain, not as snow.

    There is going to be a lot of snow melt, I think.

    They are in trouble, I think.

    http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/

    This is NOAA via the California Nevada River Forecast Center. Click on Forecast Precipitation (QPF) on the right side of the page, then select “Six Day Gridded QPF”. Then zoom in on the Oroville area and the Sierra Nevada mountains above the reservoir. There is a big area of 12 to 16 inches of forecast precipitation directly over the Oroville watershed, just about all of it below 6,000 feet.

    Reply
    • Evacuees were running out of gasoline. They need to truck gasoline into the area so people can get out, I think.

      Reply
    • The Washington Post roughly estimates 1.23 million acre feet from 6 inches of rain. If they get double that, 12 inches of rain, that means about 2.5 million acre feet of inflow into the Oroville dam over 6 days, not counting ground water infiltration, not counting snow melt.

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/02/13/the-lake-oroville-dam-stress-test-isnt-over-more-rain-this-week-then-spring-thaw/?utm_term=.e6f01f06ddb3

      150,000 CFS (cubic feet per second) outflow times 3600 seconds per hour times 24 hours equals about 13 trillion cubic feet of outflow per day. Divide that by 43560 square feet per acre, to get about 300,000 acre feet of outflow per day, maximum, through the damaged regular spillway.

      Six days at maximum flow of 300,000 acre feet per day equals 1.8 million acre feet of outflow.

      So, they are 0.7 million acre feet short. If they have released 0.7 million acre feet in the last three days, that still leaves them dead even, over the next 6 days, with no margin for additional inflow if snow melt exceeds ground infiltration.

      These guys are the experts, but the operation manual for the dam has not been re-written in 50 years. Global weirding did not exist at that time.

      It’s going to be close, I think. The math doesn’t look promising. I think they should re-evacuate.

      Reply
  145. Well-deserved recognition for Peter (Greenman) Sinclair and ClimateCrocks:
    Oh, Yeah. Then there’s This.

    Congratulations, Peter.

    Reply
  146. Some interesting sumary information on January 2017 from Jeff Masters and Bob Henson on their Category 6 blog.

    Most notable comment: “It’s remarkable that Earth saw its third warmest January on record without any help from El Niño … the warmest and second warmest Januarys (2007 and 2016) both occurred during an El Niño event.”

    Reply
  147. Witchee

     /  February 16, 2017

    Somehow this version of Sounds of Silence seems more appropriate than the original.

    my words like silent raindrops fell…

    Reply
  1. The Permanent Global Coral Bleaching Event | GarryRogers Nature Conservation

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: