India to Fight Airpocalypse by Making Every Car Electric by 2030

Stricken by air pollution, tired of paying so much for fuel imports, fearful of climate change, and looking to cut vehicle ownership costs, India now plans to have all new cars purchased in the country be electric-powered by 2030.

A Crisis Brought on by Fossil Fuel Dependence

If you thought air pollution in China was bad, you haven’t really taken a good look at India.

According to a 2015 ‘Airpocalypse’ report from Greenpeace, the massive country sees 1.2 million people die from toxic air pollution every year. This number, according to the report, was only slightly less than total deaths attributed to tobacco use.

(Smoke, dust, and industrial pollution choke India’s skies in this 2012 NASA Satellite Photo. During recent years, air quality decline in India has been attributed both to increasing air pollution and to rising instances of wildfire ignition spurred by human-caused climate change.)

Over recent years India’s air pollution death rate, according to Greenpeace, has been steadily ticking upward. And in 2015, the country surpassed China’s annual loss of life due to bad air. In places like the capital city of Dehli, the amount of harmful particulate pollution now often rises to 13 times the maximum safe level recommended by the World Health Organization.

A large share of the pollution that causes these deaths comes from automobile emissions. Add in the worsening instances of heat and drought caused by fossil-fuel-emissions-based climate change — which are already hitting India’s farmers and water security hard — and the incentive to move to clean energy sources couldn’t be higher. Facing multiple and worsening but related crises, it is now the goal of the country’s energy minister — Piyush Goyal — to begin a massive vehicle electrification program that first targets the country’s most heavily polluted population centers and then aims to encompass the entire nation.

100 Percent Electric Vehicles by 2030

The program would both add electrical vehicle charging infrastructure even as it incentivizes India’s citizens to purchase zero emissions vehicles. Individuals would be offered electrical vehicles for zero money down and then would pay back the price of purchase in installments from money saved due to far lower fuel costs. The plan would ramp up in 2020, leverage subsidies of around 4.3 billion dollars equivalent value per year, and would aim to build demand for between 4-7 million electrical vehicles annually.

Goyal says that the goal is to have 100 percent of all new cars sold as electrical vehicles by 2030. And it’s a goal that not only aims to reduce harmful pollution — but also to significantly lower fuel imports which presently stand at around 4.5 million barrels of oil per day even as it tamps down the overall cost of running a vehicle. As an added benefit, the program would spur rapid growth in the country’s automotive sector which, if successful, has the potential to leap-frog the country into a far more competitive economic position vis-a-vis the rest of the world. Especially considering the backward energy and climate policies of western heads of state like coal promoters Donald J. Trump and Malcolm Turnbull which threaten to put countries like the U.S. and Australia behind the energy transition curve.

(Are electrical vehicles about to hit an S-Curve type adoption rate? Policies in India and in other nations and cities around the world seem set to help enable an electrical vehicle and renewable energy based transition away from fossil fuels. Image source: Solar Feeds.)

India’s clean energy ambitions do not start or end with electrical vehicles, however. The country is also involved in major efforts to promote wind and solar energy. India’s solar bid process has been very successful in both lowering costs and spurring mass adoption of clean energy sources. This year the program will help to add fully 10 gigawatts of solar power capacity to the country’s electricity sector. A recent wind energy bid program now appears set to achieve similar gains — with another 6 gigawatts of capacity from that clean energy source on tap in 2017. So it’s likely that these new electrical vehicles will be powered more and more by renewable sources even in previously coal-dependent India.

India is among a growing group of nations announcing ambitions to switch entire vehicle fleets over to electric and renewables. The Netherlands is mulling over a ban on petroleum and diesel based vehicles by 2025. Sweden, Norway and Belgium are planning similar bans by 2025 through 2030. And these countries join an expanding number of major cities around the world like Athens, Paris, Mexico City and Madrid who have announced bans on pollution-causing fossil fuel based cars by 2025.

Links:

India Eyes All-Electric Car Fleet by 2030

India to Make Every Single Car Electric by 2030

Airpocalypse

NASA

India Expects to Add 10 Gigawatts of Solar Power in 2017

Wind Power Passes Inflection Point in India

Diesel Controls at Critical Technological Junction in Transport

Solar Feeds

Duration of Indian Hot Season Nearly Doubles

Hat tip to Mblanc

Hat tip to Henri

Hat tip to Matt

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73 Comments

  1. June

     /  May 2, 2017

    “A new branch of the rift on Larsen C”

    As of May 1 2017, we have observed a significant change in the rift on the Larsen C ice shelf. While the previous rift tip has not advanced, a new branch of the rift has been initiated ~10km behind the previous tip, heading towards the ice-front. This is the first significant change to the rift since February of this year…Although the rift length has been static for several months, it has been steadily widening, at rates in excess of a meter per day. This widening has increased noticeably since the development of the new branch, as can be seen in measurements of the ice flow velocity.

    http://www.projectmidas.org/blog/a-new-branch/

    Reply
  2. Reblogged this on 1EarthUnited and commented:
    Perhaps other nations will follow suit, good for India!

    Reply
  3. [Aside: India didn’t ban leaded gas until March 2000.]

    People in poor countries often drive cars 20-30 years old. To accelerate the transition, they would have to start removing petrol stations, rather than wait until they close down for lack of business.

    Reply
    • Mblanc

       /  May 3, 2017

      It’s certainly extremely ambitious, but I think that if you have very little money, then the potential large savings in running costs will be that much more attractive. Maybe.

      You are going to need some very cheap batteries though, as the average tuk-tuk engine must be seriously cheap.

      That was what struck me first though, the sheer improbability of India achieving 100% EV penetration before the rich countries of the west. How humiliating would that be for us rich westerners! I do know the Indians may lack resources, but they are well educated. Maybe they just did the maths.

      Thanks for the hat-tip RS, it’s one of the few subjects that give me much to feel positive about, in recent times, and it is an honor to be of help.

      Although it doesn’t change the current situation we are in, and there are still issues to overcome (consumer skepticism, ramping up production super quick, dirty battery supply chains, lack of recharging points, energy intensity of manufacture, etc), it is genuine progress.

      Having weighed in at the limits of my knowledge (I’m only an interested punter, not a real expert!), I may as well well throw in a few of interesting links that I see on my news aggregator under the heading of green cars.

      Reply
      • It changes the situation by bringing forward the time when carbon emissions begin to go into decline. That kind of event, should it occur, absolutely changes the outlook for this Century. India and China fossil fuel consumption growth was pretty much required for a BAU path. If India and China continue to be so ambitious, we get off that path and we have much more of an opportunity to hit the more aggressive carbon emissions reduction paths.

        Reply
    • So, actually, these markets are rather small per capita. India now sells about 3-4 million cars per year. Through 2030, this market is expected to grow to around 7 million per year. India has an opportunity to avoid fossil fuel infrastructure and transport in large part as a result. It can simply start investing in electrification and drop fossil fuel based transport investments and be on a pretty easy path to 60-70 percent electrification. This is due to lower sunk investments. As for the rest — yes, it’s ambitious and would probably need to include other policies to reach the 100 percent mark. Bans would tend to achieve that. But we should be clear that the cost curve for battery packs puts pricing below your typical ICE by the early to mid 2020s and below even the least expensive ICE by the late 2020s. And by as early as 2020 there’s a pretty easy path to producing 100 to 150 mile range EVs that seriously undercut even the least expensive ICEs. Add this to the fact that EV fuel and maintenance costs are far less than a typical ICE and you can really get a full picture of just the base economic advantages.

      Reply
  4. coloradobob

     /  May 3, 2017

    Supreme Court Will Not Review Case Challenging Critical Habitat Of Polar Bears In The

    In a path breaking motion on Monday, May 1, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear a challenge against the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The U.S. federal agency for protection of flora and fauna had requested the Supreme Court to designate a major chunk of Arctic ice shelf (120 million acres) as critical polar bear habitat.
    The state of Alaska along with the Alaska Oil and Gas Association, other local governments, and native corporations filed a petition against the demands of the USFWS.
    However, the Supreme Court did not accept the lawsuits filed by the abovementioned corporations and governments, and chose to support the USFWS.
    – See more at: http://www.techtimes.com/articles/206401/20170502/supreme-court-will-not-review-case-challenging-critical-habitat-of-polar-bears-in-the-arctic.htm#sthash.2fOqyhm7.dpuf

    Reply
  5. Steven Blaisdell

     /  May 3, 2017

    Somewhat off topic:
    “…energy from renewable sources provided the majority of the power over the weekend in Germany. For the first time ever, most of the country’s coal-fired power plants were offline.”

    http://www.dw.com/en/renewable-energy-use-surges-in-germany-over-weekend/a-38670834

    Reply
    • Mblanc

       /  May 3, 2017

      So, hot off the press, an example of what is being worked on at the moment, and how far new designs of battery will take us.

      ‘One of the big stumbling blocks preventing the wide scale acceptance of electric cars is dreaded range anxiety. With an average range of around 100 mi (161 km) per charge, all-electric vehicles still can’t compete with more conventional cars – especially if lights, windscreen wipers, or air con are needed. To level the playing field a bit, Fraunhofer is working on a new battery design that could increase an electric car’s range to 1,000 km (621 mi).’

      http://newatlas.com/battery-stacking-electric-cars/49324/

      Reply
      • Mblanc

         /  May 3, 2017

        Sorry, put that in as a reply rather than a stand alone post.

        Reply
      • Fantastic innovation that would really flip the range scales RE EVs vs ICEs should it emerge. It’s also worth noting that we are looking at fast chargers capable of providing full recharges for EVs in 5-10 minutes by 2018-2019 and that average EV ranges are going to double over the next 2-3 years alone.

        Reply
      • Wow, that’s startling. It seems like it could possibly be applied to other battery types…I even started wondering what it would happen if this concept was applied to the old Thomas Edison nickel iron battery chemistry. Recent work on that at Stanford, I think it was, has opened up the possibility of quick charging nickel iron batteries.

        Such a battery stack might be structurally strong, or could be made structurally strong by putting small stacking spacers in between the layers. If the battery pack is strong, it could maybe take the part of the frame of the vehicle, reducing the weight still further. The group working on this has already thought of that, and is working on integrating the battery with the body/frame of the vehicle.

        https://www.embatt.de/technologie.html

        The above link is in German, but Google Chrome can translate it to English. Very interesting.

        Reply
    • This is the second time in as many weeks that Germany has achieved a high rate of power supply coming from renewables. The trough in the region is generating a heck of a lot of wind at the moment.

      Reply
  6. Andy_in_SD

     /  May 3, 2017

    A new branch of the rift on Larsen C
    by Martin O’Leary, Adrian Luckman and Project MIDAS
    May 1, 2017

    As of May 1 2017, we have observed a significant change in the rift on the Larsen C ice shelf. While the previous rift tip has not advanced, a new branch of the rift has been initiated ~10km behind the previous tip, heading towards the ice-front. This is the first significant change to the rift since February of this year.

    http://www.projectmidas.org/blog/a-new-branch/

    Reply
  7. Mblanc

     /  May 3, 2017

    One more before I go…

    Everything is being electrified these days. Bicycles, scooters, skateboards, etc. These innovative short-haul modes of transport will also be a huge part of the future.

    This e-bike really struck me, it shows that our greener future need not be dull. I would have killed a close relative for this thing, when I was 12!

    http://newatlas.com/emory-outlaw-tracker-vintage-e-bike-porsche-356/49329/

    Reply
    • So it might be the surfer in me but — electric skateboards are cool.

      Reply
    • Jimbot

       /  May 3, 2017

      Due to the nature of our food production, where it take 10 calories of fossil fuels to produce 1 calorie of food on the shelf in the supermarket, and given that our bodies ability to convert calories to muscle power output is about 25%, an electric bicycle is more efficient than the fully muscle powered ones. And you don’t have to work up a sweat.

      Reply
      • Electrification also reduces the fossil fuel intensity of modern food production. There are a number of ways to eliminate the carbon-burning aspect of food production and to considerably limit fossil fuel based chemicals as well.

        Reply
        • Jimbot

           /  May 3, 2017

          I recall the book The Greening of America, which compared the farming practices of the Amish to that of modern industrial. The Amish are all organic with horse power and manure, and can actually out produce the industrial, on a bushel per acre basis, and a higher quality product. And also provide tons of employment.

        • Jimbot

           /  May 3, 2017

          re; “The Greening of America”

          I see my recall apparently isn’t that great. That perhaps wasn’t the correct title, since they don’t seem to mention such a chapter in the reviews, It was a book from the same era and genre I think. Maybe Small is Beautiful?

          Sorry for so many posts today.

        • Jimbot

           /  May 3, 2017

          I think it actually may have been a book titled “The Unsettling of America” by Wendell Berry. Research continues..

  8. Matt

     /  May 3, 2017

    Hi Robert,
    Excellent uplifting article!
    “Especially considering the backward energy and climate policies of western heads of state like Donald J. Trump ” Being very picky but I would love it if you included our beloved PM here in Aust. Malcolm Turnbull in your list. For some reason we seem to miss the criticism all around the world, when we are deliberately trying to undermine efforts to halt AGW in a manner equal or even worse than the US.
    We need the international community to be shining the spotlight on us also, so far they turn a blind eye and we are getting away with being the highest polluters per capita on the planet
    😦

    Reply
    • Request granted. 🙂

      Reply
      • Matt

         /  May 4, 2017

        Ha Ha! your the best Robert!
        But seriously it is important! How many leaders have actually reversed a fully functional and working Carbon tax system? how many have closed down the function of a Profitable renewable energy finance agency out of ideological spite? Who could possibly believe that a government would use its power to remove the Great Barrier Reef, Tasmania’s great forests etc. from the UN climate change report.
        If we make the decision as a country the we need to own it, and at the moment everyone is focusing on the USA….

        Reply
    • Jimbot

       /  May 3, 2017

      “highest polluters per capita on the planet”

      Gee, I thought we had the title here in Canada. Trudeau senior’s little project, the tar sands, are big time nowadays. Canada competing in the coal export business too.

      Reply
  9. Ryan in New England

     /  May 3, 2017

    Sorry to be the one to bring bad news to the comment section of an uplifting and positive article, but our lunatic in chief says he may pull the US out of the Paris agreement as early as next week.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/paris-agreement_us_5908f524e4b05c397683d404?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009

    I feel like the US is headed down a very isolating path, on a fast track to becoming the pariah of the international community. It’s heartbreaking that a nation that used to lead the world in scientific advances and progress has now taken a back seat while China and India blow past us in a race to the future. It really feels like we are becoming a third world nation, ruled by a tyrant with no opportunity or hope for anybody who isn’t already wealthy.

    Reply
    • Suzanne

       /  May 3, 2017

      Ugh!! The rest of the world is moving forward, while we are going backwards. DJT instead of MAGA is Making America Look Stupid (MALS)

      Reply
        • From the WAPO article above:

          “On Thursday several Cabinet members — including Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt, who’s called for exiting the accord, Energy Secretary Rick Perry, who wants it renegotiated, and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who advocates remaining a party to it — met with top White House advisers, including Trump’s daughter Ivanka Trump and her husband, Jared Kushner, and Chief of Staff Reince Priebus. Both Ivanka Trump and Kushner advocate remaining part of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, even though the president has repeatedly criticized the global warming deal.”

          So considering the fact that any withdrawal attempts will likely be very rocky politically, we can likely see more fractures in the Trump White House if things go south. Pruitt, who is an anti-Paris die-hard, could serve as the fall-guy if media attention goes negative or if the public outcry is intense, for example.

          Trump has remained critical of Paris and I think we should be realistic and consider the fact that he’s the most anti-environment President we’ve had probably in all of the history of the presidency. But if the PR fire is heavy and continuous, it’s likely that we’ll see these divisions result in fracture and shifts in Trump favoritism.

        • Jimbot

           /  May 3, 2017

          Trump and family ( cabinet ),

          They must have already been briefed on the actual facts of the nature of the climate situation, don’t you think? The US Navy is certainly aware of SLR, hurricanes, etc.

      • Stupid, suicidal, ignorant. The list of all-too-appropriate adjectives and invective could go on and on and on.

        Reply
    • So this isn’t going to be very easy for him. It will take a lot of energy, time and political capital even if he does manage to fully implement a withdrawal. Further, such a move is likely to face a serious battle in court — much like his many attempts at making the harmful and discriminatory travel ban stick.

      Reply
      • Ed

         /  May 3, 2017

        Is it better to have the US in the Paris accord, hoping for progress post-Twump but knowing that the US is likely to try to throw a wrench in the works, or have them leave, helping short-term momentum but possibly creating greater obstacles down the line?

        (if I was feeling creative enough I’d present in a “To be, or not to be” format, but dinner is soon!)

        One thought: without the US, there may be some move to apply carbon taxes on certain exports. The idea has been floated in BC w.r.t. US coal exports that go through Vancouver, and it is only a matter of time before countries that taxi carbon look to equalize the playing field with a carbon tax on imports. With the US in the Paris accord, this is unimaginable; without the US in the discussion, it is. In my opinion, the wider carbon taxes spread, the better.

        Reply
  10. Ryan in New England

     /  May 3, 2017

    Thought this was a fitting article for this comment section, and also made me think of DT (I really miss “seeing” him here), so this link is dedicated to our good frient DT Lange.

    https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/air-pollution-cars-affects-everyone-why-we-should-care

    Death certificates never list air pollution as the cause of death. Nevertheless, air pollution is a huge and silent killer: about 3 million premature deaths per year globally are due to outdoor air pollution. Between 91,000 and 100,000 air pollution deaths per year occur in the U.S., according to separate studies done in 2016 by the World Bank and the Health Effects Institute (a U.S. non-profit corporation funded by the EPA and the auto industry.) This death rate is nearly triple the that of car crashes, which claim about 35,000 U.S. lives each year.

    Reply
    • Thanks for this, Ryan. Certainly an excellent way to honor DT — who was so concerned over and affected by air pollution.

      Reply
      • Mblanc

         /  May 4, 2017

        It is amazing how air quality has burst out of its media ghetto recently, here in the UK. Maybe DT had a word when he got upstairs!

        A couple of times I nearly picked an argument with him about deaths now vs deaths in the future, because I was very interested in the subject, and had followed it for years (though not as closely as DT). My hypothesis was going to be that we should abandon any emissions regulations on ICEs, power stations, etc, and go for maximum efficiency/minimum CO2.

        This would have minimised future deaths at the cost of current deaths, which I might have suggested was the least risky approach for humanity overall.

        I’m glad I didn’t, because it is now as clear as day to me, that those very sad deaths due to vehicle emissions are a massive help in pushing EV’s (which will save deaths from those local emissions, and from reducing CO2 emissions). It also took me a good while to recognise he was paying a personal price for the sharp practice that kept this story suppressed for many years.

        Hats still off to DT, he was way ahead of us all on this terribly sad story.

        Reply
  11. Abel Adamski

     /  May 3, 2017

    KS , one in moderation on the march thread, re life extension, changes the dynamics for the rich old men

    Reply
  12. Spike

     /  May 3, 2017

    Greenpeace volunteers are taking action against fracking in the U.K. today.

    Reply
  13. Abel Adamski

     /  May 3, 2017

    An hour long British Documentary on Global Warming that aired in 1981 has been located in the archives
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/warming-warning-1981-tv-documentary-warned-climate-change

    On the evening of Tuesday, 8 December, 1981, the UK’s only commercial TV channel, ITV, broadcast an hour-long documentary called “Warming Warning”.

    It was among the earliest occasions – possibly the earliest – anywhere in the world where a major broadcaster aired a documentary dedicated solely to the topic of human-caused climate change.

    The documentary, which was made by the now-defunct Thames Television, has sat in the archives largely unseen ever since. Until now.

    Carbon Brief has tracked down the copyright holder, FremantleMedia Ltd, and persuaded it to release into the public domain a selection of key clips from the documentary.

    The clips provide a poignant, historical insight into what scientists knew about climate change almost four decades ago – and how the world was beginning to react in terms of the resulting geopolitical, technological and societal ramifications. Many of themes still resonate strongly today.

    To put it in context, the documentary was broadcast seven years before Dr James Hansen’s famous “it is already happening now” Senate testimony in 1988, nine years before the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report was published, and 25 years before Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth was released. After it first aired in 1981, Warming Warning went on to be broadcast in the US (in 1990 on PBS), Greece, Japan and Israel, according to FremantleMedia.

    Reply
    • Thanks for this, Abel. And considering the fact that this was on the Johnson Administration’s radar, it’s pretty clear that the long delays in response have been entirely inappropriate to the problem as well as brazenly counter to a long-term awareness of the situation.

      Reply
  14. Suzanne

     /  May 3, 2017

    I know this is way off topic but the EPA is taking pubic comments about “Feedback on Reducing Regulatory Burden” ….until May 15th. I have read that these public comments “do” matter, and can slow things down. So everyone..consider giving them your 2 cents.
    https://www.epa.gov/aboutepa/office-water-feedback-reducing-regulatory-burden

    Reply
  15. Jimbot

     /  May 3, 2017

    Thanks for all your talent, knowledge, and energy you put into this really good info source, RS.

    One of the underlying factors in this long delay in getting any traction on global overheating, as I like to term it, was when they installed smog controls on cars in the 70s and 80s. Then they pretended that everything was ok, no more worries. Since CO2 is odourless and colourless this worked partly since most people weren’t paying attention. Then they had the vehicle testing stations, recycling depots and change your light bulbs ( In Canada at least, incandescent bulbs produce a little extra heat as they consume more power, which is actually a better source of heat than natural gas – methane ) to further lull people to sleep. All basically money making scams.

    Reply
    • Well, controlling the particulate pollution is pretty important considering the amazing death rate from that source. But ignoring CO2 isn’t helpful either. It’s nice that we have an increasingly available EV option to help tackle both problems.

      Reply
      • Jimbot

         /  May 3, 2017

        I think the point I’m trying to make is that there was some kind of collusion/delusion went on to get people to ignore the CO2 and to carry on with BAU. But I have no proof of this, it’s just my impression from living through that era. As you have noted, the long term effects of CO2 were well known in the smog era of the 60s. Maybe they just underestimated how long the long term was going to be. Quite a risky experiment was the feeling I got. Ultimately this will be much worse than a number of deaths from pollution, not that that’s a good thing.

        .

        Reply
        • I think this is an example of greenwash. And I agree — it’s not a good idea to create a blanket generalization in which progress in one area (particulate pollution) is used to defray needed progress in another area (carbon emissions reductions).

  16. Jimbot

     /  May 3, 2017

    Well, the vehicle testing was maybe a net positive. In the latter years of the program here they gave us a net annual CO2 rating for our year’s driving performance.

    Reply
    • I absolutely support vehicle testing. It formed a better basis for understanding the impacts of various kinds of vehicle based pollution. I’d rather have people making money on regulating and reducing emissions than on selling emitting fuels, for example.

      Reply
    • Jimbot

       /  May 3, 2017

      The testing program was discontinued about 2 years ago here in Vancouver. Apparently it was viewed as no longer necessary due to electronic fuel injection and cars’ computers keeping them reliably within operating specs.

      The readout from the test gave you a nice comfortable feeling since the lower half of the scale for total CO2 was in nice shades of green.

      We had Austin Minis here in the 60s and 70s. They got 60 USG per mile if kept in tune ( easy to do if you knew how ). A Vespa 150 is probably close to 200 mpg ( US ) at lower speeds. But everyone’s driving F250s and Denalis and going 80.

      Reply
  17. Genomik

     /  May 3, 2017

    Finally the Economist has a big story about climate change. It’s somewhat notable as I believe it’s a pretty good magazine with mostly well researched articles. I often use The Economist as evidence when I speak to republicans as it’s hard to call it a liberal magazine, it’s about Capitalism.

    http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21721379-current-trends-arctic-will-be-ice-free-summer-2040-arctic-it-known-today

    Reply
    • Jimbot

       /  May 3, 2017

      Good except it seems likely to some Arctic scientists that it will happen sooner than 2040.

      Reply
      • 2030 appears to be the average prediction range. Although a bad summer could produce near ice free conditions in any given year under even present warming.

        Reply
    • A few years back, they were selling the false notion of a global warming pause. It’s good to see they’ve woken up a bit.

      Reply
  18. climatehawk1

     /  May 3, 2017

    Tweet scheduled.

    Reply
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