Record-Thin Sea Ice Faces Big Predicted Arctic Warm-up This Week

If you’re someone who tends to worry about Arctic sea ice losses, this coming week’s weather forecast looks like a bit of a doozy. And when you consider that the sea ice is both greatly weakened and thinned in a number of the major monitors, prospects don’t look very good, presently, for 2017’s summer melt season as whole.

Abnormal Warmth Over Greenland and Baffin and Hudson Bays

Over the next 48 hours, Baffin and Hudson Bays will experience the tail end of what an extreme warm-up that produced exceptional May surface melt over the Greenland Ice Sheet and then shifted westward.

(An extreme early May warming over Greenland this week produced considerable surface melt well outside the 2 standard deviation range. Today, the warmth has shifted west over Baffin and Hudson Bays. Later this week, a similar strong warm-up is predicted to impact the Pacific side of the Arctic Ocean. Image source: NSIDC.)

Temperatures for Hudson and Central and Southern Baffin, according to GFS model runs, will range above freezing over this time period — hitting as high as the low 40s (F) in Eastern sections of Hudson Bay. Over-ocean readings (which tend to moderate, but not, apparently, in this case) that will range from 5 to 15 degrees Celsius above average. These rather high surface temperatures will help to kick sea ice melt throughout these regions into higher gear.

Pacific Side of Arctic Ocean Predicted to Heat Up

Following the Baffin-Hudson warm-up, a large bulge of much warmer than normal air is predicted to extend northward from a broad region extending from Eastern Siberia through the Bering Sea and Alaska and on into Northwestern Canada. This bulge will, according to GFS model runs, by early next week inject periods of above freezing temperatures over a wide region of the Arctic Ocean that includes the East Siberian Sea, the Chukchi Sea and the Beaufort Sea. And by this time next week, these same model runs project that 10-16 C above average temperatures will dominate a large region of the Central Arctic — forcing above-freezing temperatures over a broad cross-section of the North Pole zone by May 17.

(The Arctic is expected to experience nearly 2 C above average temperatures with some regions over the Arctic Ocean hitting 16 C [28 F] above average. These are considerable departures for May when temperatures in the Arctic tend to moderate. So much warmth is likely to have an impact on the already greatly thinned Arctic sea ice. Image source: Global and Regional Climate Anomalies.)

So much early season warmth is likely to further impact an already greatly weakened and thinned veil of sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean. A cooling cap that even more conservative scientists estimate could be completely removed during a summer as soon as the early 2030s. But in the worst case scenario, and when considering how thin the ice is now, a nearly ice free summer could happen as soon as this year. Few scientists really want to talk about that now — given the likely controversy that would result. But we shouldn’t entirely ignore that possibility for fear of backlash or criticism. Nor should we ignore how such an event would tend to further distort an already disrupted Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation.

Indicators Show Very Thin Ice

Over recent weeks, sea ice area and extent measures have recovered somewhat as temperatures over the Arctic Ocean have moderated a bit from very warm conditions during October through March. However, a number of indicators including PIOMAS’s sea ice volume measure show that despite this mild surface extent recovery, the ice is very weak and significantly thinned.

(PIOMAS sea ice volume measure shows a considerable record low departure through mid April of 2017. Image source: PIOMAS.)

It’s worth noting that a significant portion of the extent recovery over recent weeks can be attributed to strong winds blowing ice out of the Arctic Ocean and into the Barents Sea as well as out through the Fram Strait. Such conditions are not normally considered to be healthy ones for ice retention through summer as ice in the Barents and Fram tends to melt far more swiftly than ice secured in the Central Arctic. And the Fram itself is often considered to be a graveyard for sea ice.

As for PIOMAS, the most recent measurement through the middle of April found that sea ice volume had topped out at 20,600 cubic kilometers. This measure was fully 1,800 cubic kilometers below the previous record low set for the month. It’s a tremendous negative departure that, if valid, shows that the state of the sea ice as of this time was terribly unhealthy. A situation that prompted the typically conservative Neven over at the Arctic Ice Blog to state that it’s:

Not looking good. Not looking good at all… with a maximum that was almost 2000 km3 lower than the previous record reached in 2011, it’s obvious that anything is possible this coming melting season.

(According to the EASE NSIDC sea ice age monitor, the multi-year sea ice is now almost entirely removed from the Pacific side of the Arctic. Strong, persistent winds have continued to push a good portion of the frail remainder of this ice out toward the Fram Strait — a graveyard for sea ice. And a big warm-up predicted for this week will begin to test the greatly thinned ice over the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas. Image source: NSIDC and The Arctic Ice Blog.)

Moreover, Neven last week pointed out that according a separate measure (see image above), typically thicker multi-year ice is presently absent from the Beaufort Sea. And, to this point, it’s worth noting that the amazing above normal temperatures that plagued the Arctic cold season for multiple years now have resulted in vast losses among this most healthy subset of sea ice.

Such considerably thinned ice presents practically no barrier to the effects of warming. It can melt quite rapidly and it is far more subject to the physical forces of wind and waves. With strong southerly winds and a big warm-up now in the pipe, it appears that this considerably thinned ice will get its first test in mid-May. Potentially creating large sections of permanently open water very early in the melt season and very close to the ever-more vulnerable High Arctic.

Links:

NSIDC

PIOMAS

Climate Reanalyzer

Earth Nullschool

Hat tip to Neven and…

to the researchers over at The Arctic Ice Blog

 

Leave a comment

125 Comments

  1. NevenA

     /  May 10, 2017

    Thanks for a great article, Robert.

    Even though sea ice extent as measured by JAXA hasn’t been in the lowest top 3 for a couple of days now (it has been almost all of 2017 so far), there’s just so much potential out there that if this forecast comes about, we’re going to see some big drops soon. 2017 will probably be in the lowest top 3 again for much of the time, but it might take until June before 2016 can be overtaken.

    As for where this melting season could go… I try not to think too much about it.

    Reply
    • Thanks for the added analysis, Neven. If I were to add my two cents, it just looks like wind-blown dispersion into the Barents and maybe southern Baffin jogging those extent numbers you mention. Your points from your blog, I think, seem to jibe with that.

      As for looking downrange, there’s more than a little psychological barrier to it. That and I guess no one really wants to hang their credibility out to dry. But yeah. Lots of those metaphorical dark clouds.

      Reply
    • Andy_in_SD

       /  May 11, 2017

      Neven,

      I can not speak for others, but I was concerned when you announced a hiatus. I see you, Robert and others as people who put so much into this, with really no returns that current civilization values, as something I can only admire.

      I can see you good people taking breaks, you need it, you deserve it. You are not paid for your efforts (unlike those that whore for Heartland et al….watts?). You do this for the common good, and you have a conscience (again, unlike others).

      When you spoke of a long break, part of me said “yup this guy needs it”. The other part said “oh crap, who will maintain the voice of science. Numbers don’t lie, people do.

      Reply
      • wharf rat

         /  May 11, 2017

        You speak for Rat, too. Thanks to both Neven and Robert.

        Reply
      • Loni

         /  May 11, 2017

        Well put, Andy. Without these valuable clarions staunchly placing themselves as obstacles against government/corporate machinations……….well, the seas would still be as stormy, but we would be without a compass.

        An old friend used to chide me, “Boy, you can work a good horse to death, ya know.” These are demanding times, more of us need to bear the load, and those that are functioning in such strategic, irreplaceable positons must be hyper vigilante about personal care and fatigue.

        If it’s any comfort, this is ‘the good fight’, and from what I’ve heard, it earns one good seating in the here-after.

        Reply
  2. g. orwell

     /  May 10, 2017

    RS: tough stuff to consider and on which to elaborate-you’re a King in the watered-down world of climate reportage.

    Reply
  3. If the ice disappears, won’t warmth be able to get to the bottom of the Arctic continental shelf and release methane stored there?

    Reply
  4. climatehawk1

     /  May 11, 2017

    Tweet scheduled.

    Reply
  5. Andy_in_SD

     /  May 11, 2017

    Not only is the ice thin, it is fractured badly. It has been all winter. Fractured ice responds to heat easier. Hudson / James Bay have been terribly fractured all winter.

    I’ve also noticed the resolution / calcs for contiguous ice are biasing on the cautious side and reporting open water as iced. We all know that one square inch that is ice, not open will cause Watts and the Heartland Whores to scream “it’s all wrong because of this one square inch!!”. Thus the calculations bias towards caution and under report.

    As a sidebar, Watts is not a dumb person, I would suspect pretty sharp. It is such a shame he is a whore, and has sold out his self respect for a pocket full of dollars. If he had self respect, and honor of any form he would decline the whore money, step back and report what is really happening. I hope he can buy a nice truck or something equally shallow with his kids/grand kids future, he is spending it. They will suffer tomorrow, because he wants a new pickup truck today.

    I have not found a price for my honor (one may not exist), as many others here have not (CB comes to mind immediately).

    http://www.arctic.io/explorer/8-8/2017-05-09;2014-05-09/6-N81.93906-W143.82267

    Reply
  6. I’m taking this as an opportunity to repost this magnificent video showing the ice volume minimum, ending at 4000 km3 for 2016 (loud):

    Reply
  7. Ryan in New England

     /  May 11, 2017

    As many of us are already aware, Glacier National Park is losing its glaciers, with only 26 of the 150 from the 19th century remaining.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/11/us-glacier-national-park-is-losing-its-glaciers-with-just-26-of-150-left

    Reply
  8. Spike

     /  May 11, 2017

    This GIF is very good, comparing real world and simulated temperatures. Note the high latitudes:

    Reply
    • Suzanne

       /  May 11, 2017

      Wow…As I keep reading all over the CC blogs and papers…”Faster than expected”…

      Reply
    • Andy_in_SD

       /  May 11, 2017

      That was amazing, thanks for sharing

      Reply
    • lesliegraham1

       /  May 13, 2017

      It must be comforting for ‘sceptics’ to see that the warming suddenly stops in 2100.

      Reply
  9. What’s your take on the Atlantic conveyor current? On earth null school it looks to have stopped/dissipated mid Atlantic. And northern Europe now tends to have weather from the north or east as opposed to a stream of mild weather from the west. Is this a weather blip or could it be a climate change?

    Reply
  10. utoutback

     /  May 11, 2017

    Oops! Significant calculation errors found in the studies of climate skeptics from Alabama. Yet another contrarian myth debunked:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/may/11/more-errors-identified-in-contrarian-climate-scientists-temperature-estimates

    Reply
  11. Jimbot

     /  May 11, 2017

    Thanks for giving us the straight goods RS, and Neven. You guys are heroes. Honest reporting is an act of rebellion in this anthropogenic Endocene age, as some have called it. You can leave the conclusions for the readers. Many of those who find their way here will probably reach similar ones. I expect mainstream denial to continue for a few ( maybe 2 ) more years until it all becomes inescapably obvious for even the most deluded. Then maybe calm acceptance will prevail with all our ultra-rational fellow NA citizens, or not.

    The facilitator of this talk by “he whose name must not be spoken” talks about solutions and lead a discussion on it.

    My totally unqualified guess for 2017 minimum volume is 1500 km3. And for minimum extent it is 1,500,000 km2.

    Reply
  12. Andy_in_SD

     /  May 12, 2017

    Irreversible ocean warming threatens the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf

    By the second half of this century, rising air temperatures above the Weddell Sea could set off a self-amplifying meltwater feedback cycle under the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, ultimately causing the second-largest ice shelf in the Antarctic to shrink dramatically.

    https://phys.org/news/2017-05-irreversible-ocean-threatens-filchner-ronne-ice.html

    Reply
    • Erik Frederiksen

       /  May 13, 2017

      Thanks for the link. The Ronne ice shelf is further from the warm circumpolar current than the Amundsen sea sector, so Thwaites may be collapsing before the loss of that ice shelf opens a second conduit for ice flow.

      Reply
  13. Andy_in_SD

     /  May 12, 2017

    Glaciers all over the world are disappearing in what should be the subject of “international concern”, according to a new article in the leading journal Science.

    Among a number of significant effects, millions of people will be forced to leave their homes by rising seas, crucial sources of water will run dry and wildlife will lose sources of nutrients and shelter, wrote Dr Twila Moon of University of Colorado, Boulder.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/earth-ice-melting-glaciers-disappearing-glacier-los-glaciares-national-park-us-geological-survey-a7730466.html

    Reply
  14. Sheri

     /  May 12, 2017

    Has the info from NASA/GISS website dropped the reports on monthly temps compared to previous yrs? Jan and Feb of 2017 are there but not Mar and April 2017??

    I was gone for a bit because my brother in California has been seriously I’ll but is making some recovery.

    Thanks for any info you all can give me, Catching up on reading.

    Sheri

    Reply
    • Thomas Huld

       /  May 12, 2017

      The latest map on the site is for March. I have noticed in the past that you sometimes need to refresh the page to get the latest maps.

      April is probably not there yet, data for one month typically arrives around the middle of the following month.

      Reply
  15. Andy_in_SD

     /  May 12, 2017

    How climate change deniers’ lies made a leading sceptic change sides

    Jerry Taylor says when he looked into sceptics’ claims they were ‘dodgy, sketchy or misleading or the underlying science didn’t hold up’

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-denier-lies-sceptic-change-sides-jerry-taylor-niskanen-libertarian-a7713016.html

    Reply
  16. Shawn Redmond

     /  May 12, 2017

    This is something I’ve noticed as an observer as well. Over the last ten or so years the insect population has noticeably dropped off. The first thing I started to notice was the lack of blackflies in spring. At first I thought it was staying too cool for them and then swing abruptly to be being too warm. Then I started to notice the same lack of “bugs” on the wind shield. Then I realized that while driving at night in the summer there was a very noticeable lack of insects in the head light beams. Now, to go along with the lower numbers, there are new insects to count. The invasive species! Some of the numbers in this study are very alarming and I would not be surprised to find that they are reproducible everywhere if we can find good long term records. Granted some are doing a lot better but it seems to favour the nasty ones such as ticks! The Krefeld Entomological Society shows how important a non-profit hobby can be.
    http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/05/where-have-all-insects-gone
    Entomologists call it the windshield phenomenon. “If you talk to people, they have a gut feeling. They remember how insects used to smash on your windscreen,” says Wolfgang Wägele, director of the Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity in Bonn, Germany. Today, drivers spend less time scraping and scrubbing. “I’m a very data-driven person,” says Scott Black, executive director of the Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation in Portland, Oregon. “But it is a visceral reaction when you realize you don’t see that mess anymore.”

    Some people argue that cars today are more aerodynamic and therefore less deadly to insects. But Black says his pride and joy as a teenager in Nebraska was his 1969 Ford Mustang Mach 1—with some pretty sleek lines. “I used to have to wash my car all the time. It was always covered with insects.” Lately, Martin Sorg, an entomologist here, has seen the opposite: “I drive a Land Rover, with the aerodynamics of a refrigerator, and these days it stays clean.”

    Reply
    • In the 1950’s you really did need to wash the car wind shield bec of all the insects..Now nothing..Derrick Jensen is the only writer I have found who bemoans this .I drive around missing the insects and worry that most people think it is a god thing..poor birds

      Reply
      • Shawn Redmond

         /  May 12, 2017

        I hear ya! When I hear talk of genetically modified mosquitoes that are sterile to combat disease, it hurts a little. No thought is given to the myriad of species that have life mostly due to that larvae. Migratory waterfowl and countless aquatic species. The chain is badly worn.

        Reply
        • lesliegraham1

           /  May 13, 2017

          There are thousands of species of mosquitoes.
          I guessing the boffins are concentrating on the small minority that carry disease.
          Mosquitoes have barely evolved in 40 million years – they are on a winner. They’ll be around a lot longer than us.

    • Spike

       /  May 12, 2017

      A guy in the UK wrote a beautiful poetic and well reviewed book about it called “The Moth Snowstorm”, because when I was a boy that’s what it looked like driving with full beam in central England. Now you see very few if any, nor do they invade the bathroom on summer evenings when lights are on. And of course their loss has impacted on bats and birds. For folk who think about such matters it’s a profound indication of our hubristic destructiveness.

      Reply
      • Bill H

         /  May 14, 2017

        Spike, an exception to the rule would be clothes moths. As a great lover of woollen pullovers (can’t beat ’em for warmth) I have found far more moth damage in my clothes in the last few years than I’ve ever noticed before.

        Reply
    • PlazaRed

       /  May 16, 2017

      I Drive a Renault van from 1987 and its clear of squashed insects on the front and wind-shield a lot of the time now. I used to have a kaleidoscope of insects on the front but now almost nothing hits the van day or night.
      I notice that the local swift birds that come here to southern Spain for the summer are having a hard time catching insects and are even flying very close to people in search of fly’s.
      In my house today I have only seen 1 fly as opposed to the normal a few years ago of dozens.
      Things are looking grim on all sorts of fronts.

      Looking at the far north and the ice problems, I think that the only saving factor for the sea ice melting is the massive amounts of dense low clouds that are keeping the sunlight from the sea ice. If the clear sunny days arrive, then its a major meltdown right across the arctic.
      I flew from Vancouver to Frankfurt 2 weeks ago and it was dense low cloud most of the way. A lot of slush ice round the coasts of Baffin island and Greenland when I could get a glimpse of them. Its not just a clean line water to ice out there but a lot of mixed slushy water with ice in it. I was glued to the window for hours watching but the thick clouds were there most of the time.
      Arctic pilots would be good sources of info on what they see in the changes of the ice.

      Thanks for the blog and all the info.

      Reply
  17. Henri

     /  May 12, 2017

    May extent is a poor indicator for the September minimum extent. That’s why i wasn’t too much concerned last year because due to cloudiness there wasn’t a whole lot of top melt going on. This year is more threatening in my opinion. Large early melt season extent (relatively speaking) means we should see more sunshine on the arctic this time around and the unusual low thickness may be utterly devastated with the right kind of weather.

    Having said that last September minimum did dip lower than i anticipated which was impressive due to the feeble area of melt ponds so it was likely mostly driven by bottom melt. It is hard to get a feel for such a complicated system without proper calculations and i won’t make an ass of myself making any predictions. Let’s just hope we get lucky with the summer weather but i think we all here agree where we are heading in the long term.

    Reply
    • Erik Frederiksen

       /  May 12, 2017

      Long term. Given that the planet’s energy imbalance practically guarantees significant further warming this century, and that it will take decades to transition our energy sector, once we start, it appears we will not only melt the ice cap, but also West Antarctica, much if not all of Greenland, and big chunks of East Antarctica’s marine sectors.

      Unless we make a WWII type effort to not only decarbonize energy production, but figure out a way to remove a lot of CO2 from the atmosphere.

      Reply
  18. Shawn Redmond

     /  May 12, 2017

    Flooding whether tidal or deluge is going to cause untold misery for the poor and middle class. There are a great number of homes and business’ in these “zones”. The strain on an economic model that only works with growth will soon show its ugly underbelly. What will happen when the governing bodies don’t get the moneys required to rebuild or cover the costs to re-locate. These properties will be un-marketable and the investments they represent will be lost by those who were sold the idea that this is a good long term strategy.
    Something wicked this way comes!!
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/building-on-flood-plains-goodale-1.4107474
    Jason Thistlethwaite, an assistant professor at the University of Waterloo’s faculty of environment, says the problem is that municipalities set zoning regulations and collect property tax revenue but do not pay for rebuilding costs after natural disasters.

    “The municipality really doesn’t have an incentive to go in and use land-use planning and building codes and communications strategies to tell people that they are at risk of flooding, particularly given that most of the revenue comes from development, it comes from property taxes.” Thistlethwaite said. “So they face a real conflict of interest.

    “POOR LAND-USE PLANNING AT THE LOCAL LEVEL BASICALLY GOES UNPUNISHED AND IN FACT GETS REWARDED WITH ADDITIONAL DISASTER ASSISTANCE FROM THE PROVINCE, FROM THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT.” (my emphasis)
    ……………………
    It is an approach that the Insurance Bureau of Canada’s Craig Stewart says should be addressed, as the impacts of climate change continue to deliver variable weather patterns.

    “It makes no sense now to be building homes in harm’s way,” Stewart said.

    Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale says the federal government expects an increasing number of natural disasters to occur more quickly and for them to be larger and more costly in the coming years.

    Reply
    • Spike

       /  May 20, 2017

      We have the same problem in the UK. Despite warnings from the Environment Agency and the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) between 2001 and 2011, 200,000 new houses were built on the flood plain whilst at present there are almost 500,000 homes that have been given planning permission and are waiting to be built on the flood plain.

      Reply
  19. Shawn Redmond

     /  May 12, 2017

    Here we go, some optimism. It is getting tough to find. Optimism among the informed may be in danger of extinction. The list of advisors and communication staff are in the following link:
    https://www.climatecommunication.org/who-we-are/about-us/
    The first article (from April 2016) I read is certainly optimistic:
    https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2438/
    In an instant, I understood Hassol’s point: “Of course there’s a huge problem, but if you keep hitting people with problems, they just want to pull the covers over their head. Focusing on the solutions is energizing, it’s inspiring, as opposed to leaving people so depressed that they have no energy to act. There really is a lot to be positive about.”

    Look, I know it’s really hard to be optimistic when you’re down. So the best antidote to fight off the climate blues, according to Hassol, is to take action. “I do more work, give more talks, work with more scientists, get out there, and give people real hope. I also balance my reading,” she continued. “For every couple of articles I read in science journals about the melting poles, the hottest year on record, the worst fire season on record, the flooding, I try to look at what’s happening on the solutions side: the growth in solar and wind, the improvements in the economics of renewable energy, the ambitious action taking place in cities, states and countries around the world.”

    Reply
    • I disagree. I don’t buy the meme that the public is not acting because they heard too much doom and gloom. Note that fear is one of the top human motivators. Conservatives use fear of loss all the time to promote their side… fighting climate change will eliminate your job and they will take away your SUV, etc.

      As someone who gives “honest” talks about climate change, I have to say that the general public (and even well informed progressives) usually have no idea about the track we are on. Optimism bias and other denial strategies rule the day.

      Of course we need to present solutions (put a price on carbon!) but why talk about solutions if you’re not willing to honestly talk about the problem?

      Reply
  20. Hatrack

     /  May 12, 2017

    Cross-posted to Democratic Underground – as always, Robert – great work.
    Thank you!

    Reply
  21. Spike

     /  May 12, 2017

    Great read on Antarctica here – “Think of it as a giant soup bowl filled with ice,” says Sridhar Anandakrishnan, an expert in polar glaciology at Penn State University.

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/the-doomsday-glacier-w481260

    Reply
    • Erik Frederiksen

       /  May 12, 2017

      Excellent article, thanks, from it “”We just don’t know what the upper boundary is for how fast this can happen,” Alley says, sounding a bit spooked.”

      From various things Alley has said in presentations and to journalists, it appears that Thwaites could come off its stabilizing sill within decades and take the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet with it in multi-decadal time scales or less, once it comes off the sill.

      Reply
  22. Erik Frederiksen

     /  May 12, 2017

    The Arctic is warming around twice the rate of the global average due in part to the loss of heat reflectivity from ice melt and this contributes to the rate of sea ice and permafrost melt.

    Warmer air contains more moisture, so some areas are seeing storms with heavier than usual snowfall, such as Boston in some of the last few years.

    But if you look at the snow and ice that care about temperature the most, we have less river ice than we used to, less lake ice, less seasonal snow cover, less seasonally frozen ground, less perennially frozen ground, we have smaller glaciers, we have shrinking ice sheets, we have loss of sea ice.

    All the big pieces of ice which care about temperature are shrinking which darkens the planet so it absorbs more heat. The higher we let global temperatures rise the more ice we’ll melt and the stronger this particular amplifying feedback—which plays out over millennial time scales—will become.

    The current forcing from loss of albedo from Arctic sea ice melt alone, averaged globally is has been equal to about 25 percent of the forcing from CO2 over the last few decades.

    Reply
  23. utoutback

     /  May 13, 2017

    Friday night and no Colorado Bob!
    Where are you man?
    We miss you and your musical contributions.

    Reply
  24. Bluesky

     /  May 13, 2017

    When looking at the latest forecast for the new el nino, I would say there is a 35-45% chance of hitting around 1,4C in 2017 globally, a new record high or am I wrong? Around 0,3C higher than 2016 and what I heard some said in the press would be impossible to do 4 years in a row..

    http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_nino_plumes_public?time=2017040100,0,2017040100&nino_area=3&forecast_type_and_skill_measure=plumes

    http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html

    The coral reefs are not going to like that, and many other species.

    Reply
    • Bluesky

       /  May 16, 2017

      1,3 C in 2017 would not seem impossible considering the last warm months. 4 years records in a row, I wonder what they will say to that in the media.

      Reply
    • Spike

       /  May 20, 2017

      I read that the chances of a new record temp globally in 2017 had declined to 33% after April’s outturn.

      Reply
  25. One of the reasons that sea ice area and extent are low, I think, are these Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) near Svalbard in the North Atlantic:

    https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/05/11/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-18.19,77.07,3000/loc=8.755,78.136

    These are still up to 10 degrees C above normal sea surface temperatures for the same time of year. These SSTAs started forming back in 2015, and have been pretty stable throughout 2016 and now into 2017. I think of them as the Twin Blobs. People can manually edit the dates in the URL linked to above to jump back a few months to see the evolution of the Twin Blobs.

    The Twin Blobs kept sea ice from freezing on them all last winter. I’m afraid myself that we have been worrying about summertime loss of sea ice, when maybe we should have been more worried about wintertime delayed freezing events due to hot blobs. This hot blob ratchet effect may be the same behavior as has been predicted in several Arctic Sea Ice models – a hundred years from now.

    Are we seeing these delayed freezing events due to hot blobs decades ahead of schedule?

    Reply
    • This is the paper I was talking about, that shows an abrupt transition to an ice free Arctic in the winter about a hundred years from now. The authors point to a delayed freezing ratchet effect as the cause. They say that this delayed freezing ratchet effect is found

      “The authors argue that the large sensitivity of winter sea ice area in the models is caused by the asymmetry between melting and freezing: an ice-free summer requires the complete melt of even the thickest sea ice, which is why the perennial ice coverage decreases only gradually as more and more of the thinner ice melts away. In winter, however, sea ice areal coverage remains high as long as sea ice still forms, and then drops to zero wherever the ocean warms sufficiently to no longer form ice during winter. The loss of basinwide Arctic winter sea ice area, however, is still gradual in most models since the threshold mechanism proposed here is reversible and not associated with the existence of multiple steady states. As this occurs in every model analyzed here and is independent of any specific parameterization, it is likely to be relevant in the real world.”

      So, a delayed freezing threshold mechanism (ratchet effect) is seen in every model that they analyzed in their paper, making it likely to be relevant to the real world.

      Reply
      • On edit, the sentence just above the image:

        They say that this delayed freezing ratchet effect is found…in several different Arctic Sea Ice models written by many different authors.

        Reply
    • Url of the paper:

      http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0466.1

      On the Potential for Abrupt Winter Arctic Sea Ice Loss.

      With the Twin Blobs, are we seeing this delayed freezing threshold effect…decades ahead of schedule?

      The original Hot Blob in the Pacific dissipated, hit by a couple of typhoons and El Nino, if I remember correctly. Will the Twin Blobs dissipate, and if so when, and what would it take to destroy them?

      What caused these sea surface temperature anomalies to form in the first place, other than the obvious huge jolt of heat the oceans have received from global warming?

      Nature is lumpy, I think, and our computer models may not be capturing this lumpy nonlinear behavior of the real world. This lumpy, blobby behavior, in collusion with this delayed freezing threshold mechanism, might make abrupt Arctic Sea Ice loss faster and more abrupt than most people expect, I think.

      Reply
  26. Abel Adamski

     /  May 13, 2017

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-13/melting-glaciers-bring-india-emissions,-energy-uncertainty/8523704

    Melting glaciers bring India emissions, energy uncertainty

    “In March or April, this used to be 10 to 12 feet of snow here,” RS Rana laments, as he trudges through mushy slush in the Dhauladhar range.

    An avid trekker, he’s been hiking what are called the “lesser Himalayas” for nearly half a century.

    The change, he says, has been dramatic.

    “I have never seen this area without snow in the month of March, April, May, even June,” he says.

    ‘Time will come when there’s no snow here’

    The risk, Mr Schwanghart says, is that hydro projects won’t deliver the power that India’s banking on, to meet environmental targets and to electrify the developing nation.

    “This problem seems to be appreciated by some environmental agencies, but not by the ministry of power,” he says.

    Precise modelling, though, is difficult, because India’s Government keeps Himalayan river-flows classified.

    Professor AR Ramanathan, a glaciologist and hydrologist from Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University, says many of the hydro projects contributing to those projected carbon cuts should only operate half the year.

    “I think we have enough water for six months, in some of the river systems,” he said.

    “For the other six months, it may not be there.”

    Reply
  27. Abel Adamski

     /  May 13, 2017

    An item of interest. I will explain the reason after the link and precis

    https://www.sciencealert.com/a-new-dinosaur-fossil-has-been-so-well-preserved-it-looks-like-a-statue

    A New Dinosaur Fossil Found in Alberta Is So Well-Preserved It Looks Like a Statue

    The reason this particular dinosaur was so well preserved is likely due to a stroke of good luck. (Well, perhaps a stroke of bad luck for the poor nodosaur.)

    Eventually, the land creature floated out to the sea – which the mine where it was found once was – and sank to the bottom. Researchers believe it was on a river’s edge, perhaps having a drink of water, when a flood swept it downriver.

    There, minerals quickly “infiltrated the skin and armor and cradled its back, ensuring that the dead nodosaur would keep its true-to-life form as eons’ worth of rock piled atop it.”

    Now the reason.

    There is off the coast of I think mItaly a number of ancient ships perfectly preserved as the deep ocean there has been anoxic for thousands of years, thus the wood does not rot or decay, the same with this dinosaur.

    The Anoxic ocean at the time prevented decay allowing mineralisation.

    Anoxic areas of ocean are growing in number and spread

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  May 13, 2017

      Also indicates a shortage of marine lifeforms that would be expected to feed on the carcass

      Reply
    • Great fossil, Abel. The Paleoartists are going to love it, with the skin and scale details.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoart

      And they mentioned in the National Geographic article that the fossil is being sampled for skin pigment. We may finally learn what color these things were.

      Interesting link to ocean and lake anoxia. More and more we are starting to realize how widespread this is. The paleontologists already knew, I guess.

      Reply
    • Mblanc

       /  May 16, 2017

      Another region with literally hundreds of well preserved ship wrecks is the Black Sea, which is anoxic below a certain depth.

      The state of preservation of these ships is truly spectacular, and they have been photographed in high quality by ROV.

      http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/10/black-sea-shipwreck-discovery/

      Reply
  28. Abel Adamski

     /  May 13, 2017

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/05/10/nobody-mentioned-it-but-we-stand-to-lose-our-best-defense-again_a_22078630/

    Back dancing down the Yellow Brick road

    Nobody Mentioned It, But Do We Stand To Lose Our Best Defence Against Climate Change?

    You’ve probably never heard of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. We hadn’t. And after reading the 2017 Federal Budget, the indications are we never will again.

    Here’s why this matters.

    The NCCARF, in its own words, “works to support decision makers throughout Australia as they prepare for and manage the risks of climate change and sea-level rise”.

    This means it’s Australia’s only government-funded body which takes established climate science, assesses the likely impacts of climate change, then tells us what the heck we should do about it.

    You can see examples of NCCARF’S excellent work here, here or here. It provides solid, practical advice and strategies for dealing with things which affect so many Australians — like more intense heatwaves and bushfires, and increased coastal erosion.

    But buried in the 2017 Budget papers is an indication that the NCCARF’s funding is set to be cut off.

    As Prof. Palutikof explained, private sector bodies like insurers, infrastructure operators and people working in agriculture are now doing this sort of work because they take the threat of climate change so seriously.

    “These people will now work in isolation. There will be no organisation to draw these things together,” she said.

    Reply
  29. wharf rat

     /  May 13, 2017

    155 businesses and industry groups send letter of support for California LCFS in current and possibly more stringent future forms

    Dear Governor Brown, Senate President Pro Tem De León, and Speaker Rendon,

    We, the 155 undersigned vehicle fleet operators, vehicle manufacturers, fuel producers, and industry groups, thank you for your commitment to cleaner air and greenhouse gas reduction in California, and we applaud your leadership in passing the historic climate law, SB 32. Now, as the California Air Resources Board works to implement SB 32 through the scoping plan, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) remains critical.

    We strongly support the LCFS, which will reduce the carbon intensity of California’s transportation fuels ten percent by 2020, and even more by 2030. The LCFS gives us the incentives we need to invest in early-commercial vehicle and fuel technologies today in order to bring down the costs for all Californians in the future.”

    http://www.calstart.org/Policy/Low-Carbon-Fuel-Standard.aspx

    Reply
  30. wharf rat

     /  May 13, 2017

    The California Energy Commission awarded more than $24 million in grants today for clean energy freight transportation projects in Los Angeles and Long Beach and more than $12 million for other clean transportation projects.

    The South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) and Long Beach Harbor Department received $10 million each and the Los Angeles Harbor Department received $4.5 million to conduct field demonstrations of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles and cargo handling equipment that have zero or near-zero emissions (GFO-16-604).

    http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/05/20170511-calenergy.html

    Reply
  31. coloradobob

     /  May 13, 2017

    My mind and my feet are slipping through the trees. A really beautiful. article about just one tree.

    Farewell, giant pine: Climate change kills a champion at Washington Park Arboretum

    It saw the flight of Boeing’s first jet; the World’s Fair, the founding of Microsoft. It survived the eruption of Mount St. Helens, witnessed the state’s centennial, and the confession of the Green River Killer.

    But after 72 years, Pinus rigida 212-45-C, the state’s champion pitch pine, has died and will be cut down at the Washington Park Arboretum.

    The cause of death was climate change: steadily warming and drier summers, that stressed the tree in its position atop a droughty knoll. Red turpentine beetles, catching the scent of stress chemicals emitted by the tree as it struggled, bored in.

    See it for yourself
    To visit the state’s champion tree before it is cut down at the Washington Park Arboretum, type Pinus rigida in the interactive mail.

    The beetles chewed and fed on the tree’s phloem, conduits just below the bark for the tree’s life-giving juices. Just as damaging, the beetles were vectors for fungus that plugged up other conduits carrying water into the tree. It wasn’t long before arborist Clif Edwards, making his usual rounds, noticed something amiss in the pinetum, the collection of pines at the arboretum.

    http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/farewell-giant-pine-climate-change-kills-a-champion-at-washington-park-arboretum/

    Reply
  32. coloradobob

     /  May 13, 2017

    Old age alone is not for sissies . Take care and hold your love ones close. Even when they crap in their bed.

    But the world is a beautiful place . We killed the last unicorn , with a drone.

    How Narwhals Use Their Tusks

    https://news.google.com/news/story?ncl=dQ99JYdZOWr6GzMcNJ2U96lRa-dCM&q=narwhals&lr=English&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjvsK-37-3TAhXF6YMKHfAZCBgQqgIILjAA

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  May 13, 2017

      They smack the cod. with it .

      The Hapsburg collection has a narwhal tusk wrapped gold wire , and jewels as proof of unicorns .

      Opps. They just smack cod fish.

      Reply
  33. coloradobob

     /  May 13, 2017

    A word about death . Death does not come at once , death comes and waits. It sits on the edge of the bed, and watches. It is the most patience force in the universe. It does not judge , it does not care
    On Monday I give my body to science. Big med school here . I plan a detailed roster of my sins. I took over 80 LSD trips. I smoked tobacco since it was 35 cents a pack. The first girl I ever ” slept with ” gave me the clap. . A doctor in Alamosa saved me a.shot.

    I am Science project. These people are going to love me.

    Reply
  34. coloradobob

     /  May 13, 2017

    Life is truly a funny old dog.

    Reply
  35. coloradobob

     /  May 13, 2017

    Life is also a mad house , none us us understand.

    Reply
  36. coloradobob

     /  May 13, 2017

    If Trumps wins , kiss the Earth goodbye,

    Reply
  37. coloradobob

     /  May 14, 2017

    What Have I Done? – The Bridge on the River Kwai (8/8) Movie CLIP (1957) HD

    Reply
  38. coloradobob

     /  May 14, 2017

    General Washington never asked anyone for personal loyalty, our punk ass president just did that.

    Reply
    • entropicman

       /  May 14, 2017

      One mark of a dictatorship is a cadre of staff who are loyal to their leader, rather than their country. May an Englishman offer his commiserations on the way the US is changing?

      Reply
  39. coloradobob

     /  May 14, 2017

    SomethiNg , else they have no clue on.

    Reply
  40. coloradobob

     /  May 14, 2017

    Obana …………… We leave private prisons . Trump , our friends will get rich.

    Reply
    • utoutback

       /  May 14, 2017

      It’s a slow turning……
      Christ says “forgive them for they know not what they do”
      But, I’m having a really hard time with those ignorant F***s.

      Reply
    • Vaughn Anderson

       /  May 15, 2017

      Colorado Bob, I want you to know that I appreciate your insight and your wonderful comments. My mind thinks a lot like your; I, however, am not able to exude your clarity and abruptly accurate statements. Maybe a LOT more practice on my part would help.

      Thank you so much!

      Reply
  41. John McCormick

     /  May 14, 2017

    We are living in the Pliocene; 400 ppm. We know the consequences of 400 ppm. Are we ready to accept this future? No!. We have to.. Carbon capture and atmosphere capture are bs.

    Reply
  42. Vaughn Anderson

     /  May 15, 2017

    John, 400ppm of CO2 is bad enough. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory is showing at the end of 2015 a CO2EQ of 485ppm(Close to 500ppm now.) I look at this figure as a more indicative number for potential heat increase and heat retention in the earth system.

    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/

    Reply
  43. Tigertown

     /  May 15, 2017

    Can an old dinosaur like T-Rex learn new tricks?
    thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/333085-tillerson-signs-declaration-recognizing-climate-change

    Reply
  44. Suzanne

     /  May 15, 2017

    Today, Monday May 15 is the LAST DAY to submit public comments on Trump’s plan to eliminate or weaken EPA regulations that safeguard our public health (in order to make polluting private corporations happy, such as the fossil fuel industry).

    Rollback of EPA Regulations – In Executive Orders 13777 and 13783, which together comprise the most sweeping attack on climate action and climate safeguards in U.S. history, Trump directed EPA to identify rules which the Agency could roll back or weaken. Following Trump’s executive orders directing agencies to roll back vital safeguards for our environment and public health, the EPA has established a single docket for collecting comments on ALL regulations (air, water, toxics, etc.), Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OA-2017-0190. This is a key opportunity to highlight the need for strong safeguards for our air, water, and public health–and an opportunity to share personal statements on how these protections keep us and our communities healthy.

    How to Comment (before midnight on Monday, May 15):
    >> You can submit comments using Sierra Club’s email alert below, which will direct you to a form where you can modify/ add to comments suggested by Sierra.
    https://sierra.secure.force.com/actions/National?actionId=AR0077835
    >> If you prefer to send directly to EPA, submit them via this link: https://www.regulations.gov/comment?D=EPA-HQ-OA-2017-0190-0042
    Want to have an even bigger impact? – Every comment is good and will be part of the public record, but adding your personal story will be even more effective. Offer a personal comment or statement about why clean air, clean water, and public health protections are important to you or your family. For example: “Many in my family have asthma and are face serious health risks when air quality is bad. I count on EPA rules to safeguard my family from potentially deadly risks posed by ozone and poor air quality–we need strong safeguards that are based in medical fact to to keep us safe and healthy. My family and I depend on EPA to lead on clean air and clean water protections to keep us safe and healthy.”
    NOTE: All public comments will be accessible online on the Regulations.gov website identified by Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OA-2017-0190. Do NOT share private or confidential information that you do not want to be part of public record.

    Tips for Submitting Effective Comments
    https://www.epa.gov/dockets/commenting-epa-dockets
    https://www.regulations.gov/docs/Tips_For_Submitting_Effective_Comments.pdf

    Reply
    • Hey Suzanne! Thanks for this, just catching up on the multi-link posts. Best!

      Reply
      • Suzanne

         /  May 18, 2017

        I have been so swamped with Calls to Action…that when I posted this…I was completely rushed and forgot about all the links…Yikes! Thanks for posting any way. I read the EPA got over 55,000 comments….. 🙂

        Reply
  45. Suzanne

     /  May 15, 2017

    Yale Climate Connections has a new video …..”Global Warming Hot Topic at Congressional Town Halls”…worth the 6 minutes to watch:

    Reply
  46. Jeremy in Wales

     /  May 15, 2017

    The part of the capitalist system with the most to lose in a changing world, the insurance “industry” are once again doing their bit to raise awareness of the affects of climate change, in this case the projected increase in storm damage in the UK. OK it affects their bottom line and will hit people in the pocket with premiums but it is the sort of report that gets noticed by the politicians and others that can effect change.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/15/uk-faces-sharp-rise-destructive-wind-storms-global-warming

    Reply
  47. Genomik

     /  May 15, 2017

    Seems 40% of the trees in Southern California may die from a combo of bark beetles and A fungus named Fusarium which the beetles carry. It’s a deadly one two punch! It’s not mentioned that climate change is likely contributing to this problem but the article tries to determine what the value of a tree is in $ which is interesting.

    https://www.wired.com/2017/05/trees-will-die-will/

    https://www.wired.com/2017/05/trees-will-die-will/

    Reply
    • Genomik

       /  May 15, 2017

      But wait, there’s more! The beetles just annhilated avocado trees just south of the border in Tijuana valley. If it spreads into southern California where 90% of the American avocados grow that’s not going to be good. Seems this is a rapidly developing emergency for Socal and the planet that few understand.
      If trump just says it ain’t true and cuts funding will farmers whose farms are destroyed by this still believe it’s not true? I sort of think he can pull the wool over true believers but not the rest of us.
      If this continues it will lower GDP of America and Mexico and increase food prices.

      http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/environment/sdut-beetle-avocado-shot-hole-borer-tijuana-2016jan02-story.html

      Reply
  48. Shawn Redmond

     /  May 15, 2017

    Things have only gained warmth since ’14. I would think all has risen with the temp.

    https://www.arcticnow.com/science/2017/05/08/alaska-tundra-has-become-a-carbon-emitter-rather-than-carbon-sink-study-finds/?wallit_nosession=1
    The scientists, from a variety of universities and institutions, used the CARVE research flights to measure the way carbon is absorbed and expressed above the tundra across Alaska. They were able to separate measurements of carbon streaming from the ground from that blowing in from the ocean. On the North Slope, they were able to use a long record of carbon measurements taken at NOAA’s Barrow Observatory. There they found that average October-to-December carbon-dioxide emissions in the years from 2012 to 2014 were 73 percent higher than they were in 1973.

    Reply
  49. Shawn Redmond

     /  May 15, 2017

    This one for a smile, all be it dark.
    http://www.theonion.com/article/pressure-mounting-humans-step-down-head-failing-gl-55999
    According to public records, humans have failed to implement quality control procedures for their water supply or meet annual targets for carbon reduction, and it was under their stewardship that the earth broke its impressive string of 180 million consecutive quarters of gains in biodiversity. Eldridge stated that ecosystem stakeholders have given humanity plenty of time to overcome early missteps like deforestation, but it has repeatedly failed to recognize its strategic mistakes and find ways to maintain a functioning environment.

    Other species have observed that before humans took over, the global ecosystem had been a model organization, with complex groups of highly successful biomes working together productively. However, after Homo sapiens assumed control, the ecosystem reportedly saw a decline in its overall capacity to host life that has only accelerated in recent decades, as multiple habitat divisions have faltered and nearly gone under.

    Reply
  50. Shawn Redmond

     /  May 15, 2017

    How long until we start seeing this on the evening news? You’d never know anything was wrong! At this rate the flooding is going to make the droughts attractive.

    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/05/15/bangladesh-faces-food-supply-crunch-flash-floods/
    The price of rice has spiked in Bangladesh after flash floods wiped out vast stretches of paddy field just ahead of harvest time.

    Unusually heavy pre-monsoon rainfall submerged 400,000 hectares of wetland in the northeast of the country, damaging some 2 million tonnes of rice.

    Reply
  51. Shawn Redmond

     /  May 15, 2017

    And it’s the insurance industry that is pointing these things out. Too bad they’re a featherweight compared to FF interests.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/15/uk-faces-sharp-rise-destructive-wind-storms-global-warming
    Flooding is the most high-profile impact of climate change on the UK. But the overall cost of wind storms is actually higher, as a result of a much larger number of smaller incidents, and currently runs at an average of about £1bn a year. Extreme wind storms can occur, though, and in 1990 the Burns’ Day storm resulted in 47 deaths, as well as more than £2bn of insured damage and many millions more in damage to roads, power lines and uninsured properties.

    The new work was commissioned by the Association of British Insurers (ABI), which is concerned by the rising impacts of climate change on its customers, and was carried out by the consultancy Air Worldwide and the UK Met Office.

    Reply
  52. UK faces sharp rise in wind storms and higher bills as world warms

    Even the minimum global warming now expected – just 1.5C – is projected to raise the cost of windstorm destruction by more than a third in parts of the country. If climate change heats the world even further, broken roofs and damaged buildings are likely to increase by over 50% across a swathe of the nation.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/15/uk-faces-sharp-rise-destructive-wind-storms-global-warming

    Reply
  53. June

     /  May 16, 2017

    Category 6 blog today has an interesting graph showing the summertime NAO index since 1950. Only one of the past 10 summers has seen a predominantly positive NAO, likely due to low springtime sea ice extent and the “cool pool” south of Greenland.

    Premature Heat Grips Mediterranean; Deadly Forest Fire in Greece

    https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/premature-heat-grips-mediterranean-deadly-forest-fire-greece

    Reply
  54. Shawn Redmond

     /  May 16, 2017

    Does anyone with a conscience really believe we deserve anything better than what our own devices have brought us? I die a little more every day. Soon, I too will have no soul left!

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/16/chinese-appetite-totoaba-fish-bladder-threatens-rare-vaquita
    The world’s rarest marine mammal is on the verge of extinction due to the continuing illegal demand in China for a valuable fish organ, an undercover investigation has revealed.

    There are no more than 30 vaquita – a five-foot porpoise – left in the northern Gulf of California today and they could be extinct within months, conservationists have warned. The population has been all but eradicated by pirate fishermen catching the large totoaba fish and killing the vaquita in the process.

    The totoaba, which is itself highly endangered, is caught for its swim bladders which are smuggled to China for sale on the black market. Undercover investigators found the swim bladders, called maws, for sale in Shantou in Guandong province, at an average price of $20,000 per kilogram. The cost has led to the maws being dubbed “aquatic cocaine”

    Reply
  55. Bluesky

     /  May 16, 2017

    Short answer no..

    Reply
  56. Bluesky

     /  May 16, 2017

    When I talk about climate change with people they don’t seem to give a f..k most times, I only meet one who sounds to be somewhat interested in the problems we face. But no way as much as me. I tell them all the stories I read in here, on ASIF, Neven blog, NSIDC, paul beckwith videos, even some mcpherson videos and that abrupt climate change has happend like 23 times the last 100.000 years or so, most abruptly was 2 years with a big temperature rise in greenland check out climate state or was it understanding climate change from youtube.

    People do seem to care a bit sometimes if talking with family members, but it’s still alarmist when I say we could face human extinction or at least a ‘Mad max’ scenario in 2100 already.

    They say that in my country Denmark, that around 35-40% are worried about climate change, yeah right from the warnings from IPCC which are way too conservative in my opinion. They are scared about the 1 meter sea level rise that will come in 80 years from now. People laugh at me when I told them they could expect 1-2 meters or worst case 3 meter already in 2050-60.

    If James hansen and 18 other scientiest are right about the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation, which could happen in a decade in this century, my country, one of the without a doubt wealthiest, safest, non corrupt countries in the world, could be facing within 50-60 years from now devastating consequences from sea level rise. With super storms and very rapid sea level rise, would force the country in something like civil war or people would just leave the country and go to Norway, what do I know..

    I know something, we are screwed big times if we don’t change our way of living fast, and I mean everybody, not just the 5-10% of us. Also capturing co2 in a big scale is neccesary.

    Reply
    • Bluesky

       /  May 17, 2017

      I still have some hope, but things dosen’t look good. I’m well aware that food prices would probably sky rocket long before 2100 and the poorest contries well suffer already now and more in the comming decades, and the richiest contries will suffer too.

      2C warming is not even a safe goal,but we could probably survive it. We will see if the arctic survive this summer, it will be at least a bad year as 2012 I think, very high change of that.

      What I’m most interested in is seeing some new technologies capturing CO2, it’s fine with electric vehicles and all that, but we still have way too much co2 in the atmosphere. It’s a very big problem.

      Can we even save the arctic? I have seen youtube videos, saying that the past five years temperature rise in the arctic is comparable with these abrupt climate changes in the past. That we have a regional abrupt climate change in the arctic right now. Things are about to get interesting soon.

      Reply
      • Spike

         /  May 20, 2017

        Even worse in the UK, which has shown a truly impressive ability to deny, ignore, remain ignorant of, or be deluded about most important events and threats in recent times – I’d welcome Danish levels of realism here. Dickens knew the danger of public ignorance, so it has been going on for some time. “This boy is Ignorance. This girl is Want. Beware them both, and all of their degree; but most of all beware this boy, for on his brow I see that written which is Doom, unless the writing be erased.”

        Reply
  57. wharf rat

     /  May 16, 2017

    Renewables peak at 2/3 of California demand

    As has happened many times in Germany, a week of high wind and solar demand coincided with a spring weekend day, and the result was record penetration of renewable energy

    Saturday May 13 did not hit a record for raw output in either solar or wind, but a combination of lower weekend demand and strong solar and wind production meant that total renewable energy generation excluding large hydro rose above 14 GW in during the afternoon, and shortly before 3 PM met 67% of all demand.

    This included solar PV, which peaked at 8.7 GW ten minutes earlier, as well as concentrating solar power (CSP), which reached 494 MW around noon. The combination of these two resources and wind output pushed net power demand down to roughly 9 GW around 3 PM.

    https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2017/05/16/renewables-peak-at-23-of-california-demand/

    Add maybe another 12% from hydro.

    Reply
  58. Ryan in New England

     /  May 16, 2017

    Here’s some good news, Big Oil is getting smaller.

    http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/the_oil_industrys_power_is_shrinking_20170516

    Reply
  59. bostonblorp

     /  May 16, 2017
    Reply
  60. wili

     /  May 17, 2017

    I just noticed that Al Jazeera has a story on the Antarctic out now:

    http://interactive.aljazeera.com/aje/2017/antarctica-voyage/index.html

    Reply
  61. Abel Adamski

     /  May 17, 2017

    Ouch
    https://watchers.news/2017/04/29/massive-wildfire-engulfs-bubnovka-siberia-declares-state-of-emergency/

    RT said the recent spread of wildfires in Siberia has prompted authorities to declare a state of emergency across the entire federal district. “We are introducing an emergency regime for all government bodies and forces of the Unified Russian System for Preventing and Eliminating Emergencies in the Siberian Federal District,” the head of Russia’s Emergencies Ministry, Vladimir Puchkov, announced Friday.

    The state of emergency had already been declared in Irkutsk Region, as three separate areas of the region were suffering from massive wildfires.

    Reply
  62. Abel Adamski

     /  May 17, 2017

    Hmm

    http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/nuclear-town-on-fire-with-residents-choking-from-smoke/

    Nuclear town on fire, with residents ‘choking’ from smoke
    By The Siberian Times reporter
    25 April 2017

    Facilities for producing weapons grade plutonium believed safe despite fierce flames caused by wildfires.

    The nuclear facilities were not under threat, they are in caverns in the mountains

    Note the comments also

    Reply
  63. Shawn Redmond

     /  May 17, 2017

    The following are from http://floodlist.com where are the MSM reports? Completely unacceptable. I’ve given up on MSM world news,(MSM news in general). The only thing reported is political bullshit. The governments of the globe have become a negative, relevant to our plight. How in this hell are we going to create change in a timely fashion if the real disasters aren’t in the faces of everyone 24/7? Propaganda is all most ever see. Victims of our own understanding, or of the holes in our knowledge?

    China – Floods Affect 6 Provinces Leaving 4 Dead and 1,600 Displaced
    16 MAY, 2017 BY RICHARD DAVIES IN ASIA, NEWS

    South Africa – Hundreds Evacuated, 1 Feared Dead After Floods in KwaZulu-Natal
    16 MAY, 2017 BY RICHARD DAVIES IN AFRICA, NEWS

    Chile – Deaths and Evacuations After Floods in Atacama and Coquimbo
    15 MAY, 2017 BY RICHARD DAVIES IN AMERICAS, NEWS

    Reply
    • Spike

       /  May 20, 2017

      Yup been loads of floods which I’ve been retweeting, but as you say ignored by MSM.

      Reply
  64. Shawn Redmond

     /  May 17, 2017

    The following from http://floodlist.com where are the MSM reports? Completely unacceptable. I’ve given up on MSM world news,(MSM news in general). The only thing reported is political bullshit. The governments of the globe have become a negative, relevant to our plight. How in this hell are we going to create change in a timely fashion if the real disasters aren’t in the faces of everyone 24/7? Propaganda is all most ever see. Victims of our own understanding, or of the holes in our knowledge?

    China – Floods Affect 6 Provinces Leaving 4 Dead and 1,600 Displaced
    16 MAY, 2017 BY RICHARD DAVIES IN ASIA, NEWS

    Reply
    • Shawn Redmond

       /  May 17, 2017

      A couple more from the above link
      South Africa – Hundreds Evacuated, 1 Feared Dead After Floods in KwaZulu-Natal
      16 MAY, 2017 BY RICHARD DAVIES IN AFRICA, NEWS

      Chile – Deaths and Evacuations After Floods in Atacama and Coquimbo
      15 MAY, 2017 BY RICHARD DAVIES IN AMERICAS, NEWS

      Reply
  65. Shawn Redmond

     /  May 17, 2017

    Having a bit of trouble with the filter getting these headlines in. Couple in the spam trap that can be ignored RS.
    A couple more headlines from the above link
    South Africa – Hundreds Evacuated, 1 Feared Dead After Floods in KwaZulu-Natal
    Chile – Deaths and Evacuations After Floods in Atacama and Coquimbo

    Reply
  66. Bluesky

     /  May 17, 2017

    How likely is it that we will see another abrupt climate change again in the near future? This video here is very interesting, 10 degree celsius warming in northern greenland in just 14 years, and again 10 degree celsius warming in only 1-2 years.

    There had been many abrupt climate changes in the past, scientists are 100% sure of that because of the ice cores.

    Do anybody know if we had abrupt climate change in the past, when temperatures were comparable with todays temperatures, also with approximately the same amount of ice on the planet. I have no idea where to find out, so thanks for your help.

    I hope this is not too alarmist, but I think many people have interest in knowing this.

    Reply
    • Bluesky

       /  May 17, 2017

      The video says that we are in a abrupt climate change now, but could we see a 10 degree celsius warming within a decade again in northern greenland? isen’t that the same as a 4-5 degree celsius temperature rise globally?

      Reply
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