Arctic Sea Ice Melt Analysis: The Concerning Development of a Beaufort Warm Pool During Late June

During 2016-2017, the Arctic sea ice, overall, has been hammered by far warmer than normal temperatures. The result has been continued record low Arctic sea ice volume and record low or near record low extent throughout the present period stretching from October of 2016 to late June of 2017. Now, the development of a pool of warm water in the Beaufort Sea even as a strengthening ridge is poised to inject more heat into this key region threatens to increase sea ice melt pressure as we enter mid-summer.

(Far warmer than normal conditions greatly impacted Northern Hemisphere sea ice during 2016 and 2017. Due to this heat spike, the sea ice is presently far more susceptible to summer melt pressure. Image source: NASA GISS.)

Counter-Trend Cooling in May — But Sea Ice Still in Record Low Ranges

Cooler than normal temperatures in the High Arctic during May and near average temperatures over the Arctic Ocean during June resulted in somewhat less less late spring and early summer melt than some had feared.

This counter-trend cooling has set up conditions where sea ice measures in both volume and extent have bounced closer to the 2012 line with PIOMAS departures remaining in record low ranges and JAXA and NSIDC extent measures tracking near second or third lowest on record.

(Region of interest for Beaufort warm pool development and predicted warm air injection over the coming days. The above graphic by Zack Labe compares present Beaufort and CAA conditions with those of last year when melt in the region was rapidly progressing.)

But despite a brief May respite from the most extreme heat of human-forced climate change, the Arctic sea ice remains very fragile and any added warmth at this time from either the ocean, the atmosphere or both can have an out-sized impact on end melt season totals.

Beaufort Warm Pool Development

Moving into Arctic mid-summer, primary factors of concern include both land and ocean surface temperatures as well as the potential development of various weather features harmful to sea ice. Trough development on the Russian side with ridge development over the Beaufort region is generally viewed as harmful — forming warm surface waters that can considerably erode old ice in the Beaufort and near the Canadian Archipelago, while generating a dipole temperature and pressure feature that produces winds which tend to enhance sea ice export through the Fram Strait.

(Warm surface water pool development in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas represents a melt hazard to sea ice if it continues to grow and gather heat. Hot spots currently forming in the Beaufort at 5 C above average in the DMI measure is therefore cause for some concern. The predicted development of a strong high pressure ridge injecting much warmer than usual temperatures into the region will tend to feed energy into these already-warm surface waters. Image source: DMI.)

Throughout June, this form of dipole has tended to emerge — with weak highs forming consistently over the Beaufort and with moderate-to-strong lows gathering on the Russian side centering on the Laptev Sea, but ranging into the Kara, East Siberian Sea, and on into the Central Arctic. This persistent dipole has also aided in the production of warm surface waters in both the Beaufort Sea and in the Chukchi. Sea surface temperatures in this region have already formed into a considerable warm pool with anomalies ranging from 2-5 degrees Celsius above average over an expanding region.

Predicted Injection of Warm Air of the Beaufort

During the coming days, a ridge extending over Northern Canada is predicted to drag a surge of warm air across both the Canadian Archipelago and the Beaufort Sea. Over-ocean temperatures in the Beaufort are expected to considerably vary above the norm — hitting as high as 48.6 degrees Fahrenheit (9.2 C) in some regions. An over-ocean value that is around 7-9 C above average for this time of year.

(Ridge development is expected to inject much warmer than normal temperatures over the already warm Beaufort Sea by July 2nd. This predicted event presents increasing risks of sea ice melt for a key Arctic region. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

Since oceans tend to moderate both summer heat and winter cold, these are considerable local extremes. And in conjunction with a developing warm pool of ocean surface waters, such above average atmospheric readings represent a melt hazard to sea ice in the critical Beaufort basin and in adjacent regions. Ice in the Canadian Archipelago will also come under melt stress in the event that such a forecast trend develops. Meanwhile, the greatly reduced subset of multi-year ice floating just to the north of the Archipelago will also be subject to the warm air injected by the ridge as well as to the warming of nearby surface waters.

Risks Worth Monitoring

During 2012, the persistent development of a warm water pool in the Beaufort contributed to record low sea ice readings by late summer. This warm pool ate away at the ice edge, wrecking the multi-year ice even as it was eventually thrust into the Central Arctic by a powerful storm emerging over the East Siberian Sea during August. Similar warm pool formation at this time and continuing through July is cause for some concern, which is why a nascent warm pool development during late June is worth continued monitoring.






Earth Nullschool

The Arctic Sea Ice Blog

Hat tip to Zack Labe

Hat tip to Greg

Hat tip to Wili

Leave a comment


  1. wili

     /  June 28, 2017

    Robert, you’re on fire! (In a good way, of course, not the way the earth seems to be nowadays!)

    Happy to get the hat tip, though I can’t remember what I posted that was relevant recently… but then I’ve been in a bit of a fog lately.

    One thing for folks to keep in mind when looking at these maps of Arctic sea ice…it’s not your grandfather’s sea ice, or even the ten-years-younger-you’s sea ice. What people are describing that have been up there is more like a slushy than a solid ice pack. And of course slushies can spread out over a large area of water making it look like a lot of solid ice is still up there, when really there mostly isn’t any more really old thick multi-year ice up there any more except along some parts of the Canadian Archipelago, perhaps :/

    • wili

       /  June 28, 2017

      Oh, and also, many of your responses have been like mini-main-postings, lately…very impressive indeed. I just hope you don’t burn out too fast and leave us robert-less for many lonely days!

    • Thanks, Wili. A lot of work has gone into debunking various myths perpetrated by climate change deniers. The same cannot quite be said for renewable energy opponents who’ve generally put out a great deal of bad information. I call it renewable energy denial. And it’s pretty rampant.

      I also think that it’s important to separate out climate/renewable energy issues from the broader social and economic struggle that’s ongoing. While it is absolutely true that the behavior that’s caused the climate crisis is basically the same set of behavior that’s caused the serious and harmful inequalities and systemic corruption that we now confront, politicization makes it very difficult to address that subject in a manner that is capable of effectively reaching the broader public.

      That said, we should try to deconstruct those political and social barriers whenever possible. I try to do this through a solutions and threat-awareness based paradigm.

  2. Tigertown

     /  June 28, 2017

    The European Space Agency has information available through CMEMS, and is very convenient for checking sea temps.. I mostly use the program that gives you the readings from 1/2 meter below the surface and down. Here is a chart taken from the corner of the Beaufort. The warmth doesn’t go as deep as that in the Barents, but is forecast to increase in both temperature and volume.

    • Tigertown

       /  June 28, 2017

      Here is another chart in the same general area that shows the forecast increase in temperature between now and July 7th.

      Oh, and this shows exactly where the warmer water are.

    • Thanks for this, Tiger. Would be very concerned if the temperature profile was comparable to the Barents. In any case, 7 C is quite a warm SST for this region even for early July.

      I went ahead and added your images to the directory here so they’d post. Thought it would be helpful to other viewers.

      • Tigertown

         /  June 28, 2017


        • Tigertown

           /  June 28, 2017

          I noticed that in the Beaufort, the closer you get to the Mackenzie Delta, the warmer the water. The air above the river region is quite warmer than the ocean, and river water takes on land temperatures quickly, or so I have read. And, of course, now with the open water, insolation adds even more energy this time of year.

        • Good points, Tiger. It does appear that there’s quite a handshake going on between the warming land masses surrounding the Arctic Ocean and the Ocean itself as the lands dump their warmer river waters into that system.


          “Warm Rivers also typically provide a strong pulse of heat to the Arctic through spring and into summer. As the Arctic lands thaw and the large continents warm, water flows from thawed rivers increase. In recent years, Jet Stream wave amplification has combined with warming temperatures in the region of 55 to 75 North Latitude to increase storminess and rainfall intensity. As a result, higher volumes of warmed waters flood north into what was once the ice sanctuary of the Arctic Basin. The pulse of water is generally enough to disintegrate land-fast ice and speed the ice melt further offshore.

          Though large warm water pulses are not yet visible, regions to watch for 2014 will be the Mackenzie Delta and the mouths of the Kolyma, Lena, Yenisey, and Ob rivers. Major rainfall events in Siberia have been ongoing over the past week and will likely generate increased volumes of warm water flow for the Lena and Yenisey rivers particularly.

          It is also worth noting that much warmer than average conditions have spread over the Mackenzie and Ob river basins.”

        • mr elastomeric

           /  July 1, 2017

          Whoa! And the hot months are ahead of us great graph

  3. Greg

     /  June 28, 2017

    Robert, a complex analysis of a train wreck before it happens- from the Flash, no less, who speeds forward in time to show us the near future. Some months ago you responded to a question of what will likely occur, and the timeline, for the period after the first summer of little to no arctic ice. The effects will be sobering, regarding the transfer of solar energy to water and atmosphere, energy that is currently going into melting of ice, and the relative role of Greenland ice increasing and its effect on weather systems in the Atlantic. If you can easily recall your analysis it is worth reiterating again here as we are nearing the point in which we will face that outcome and this commentary and analysis is lacking elsewhere as far as I have seen. I recall the timelines you mentioned were in single digit years for dramatic changes in weather systems. Thank you.

    • Canvey

       /  June 28, 2017

      I would like to read this, can you post a link?

    • 😉

      I recall the conversation, but I don’t recall the exact question. I’ll go ahead and just dig it up. Shouldn’t take too long.

    • Actually, it’s pretty amazing how many conversations we’ve had on this particular topic (I found quite a lot in search). If I knew the exact question, I could probably drill down to it. In any case, will do my best to sum up when I have more time tomorrow.

      In the meantime, here’s a post from 2013 that roughly covers the subject. But my views have tended to evolve over time. So I’ll add some detail tomorrow.

      The basic series of events is:

      1. Polar warming — which progresses until the ice sheets get fully involved.
      2. Glacial melt and collapse — which really throws a wrench in atmospheric circulation.
      3. Post glacial stagnation and severe ocean health decline — which amplifies various mass extinction mechanisms by dramatically reducing Earth’s carrying capacity and life support processes.

      In the present day, at 1.2 C warming or thereabouts, we’re experiencing strong northern hemisphere polar amplification. The major dynamics of this amplification in the Northern Hemisphere include ocean heat transfer into the Arctic (ocean heat is spread more evenly and since the ice cap rests on the ocean it is very vulnerable to overall global ocean energy gain), slowing of the Jet Stream and loss of atmospheric slope which injects more warmth and moisture into the polar environment, loss of albedo due to ice mass loss both in the ocean and on land, loss of albedo due to vegetative change on nearby land masses, loss of albedo due to ice sheet darkening, and an increased volume of greenhouse gasses in the polar environment due to a combination of increased water vapor and amplifying feedbacks as a result of human caused climate change generating local sources.

      During the summer months, albedo loss alone is a major factor. So we’re already experiencing some of the effects of an ice free Arctic Ocean even though the ocean is not technically ice free. The albedo loss presently amplifies human warming by 25 percent above what it would otherwise have been if we had a healthy ice pack in place. As the ice goes down, this fraction of albedo loss will increase with increasingly dramatic effects to Northern Hemisphere weather.

      As this happens the thing to look at is where the trough and ridge zones will tend to form. Given the off-set position of Greenland, we are very likely to see a trough zone persistently form in the near Greenland region as the center of cold shifts more and more to the ice mass there. This is already a common dynamic in summer. But with sea ice loss, winter warming becomes particularly dramatic over the Arctic Ocean and atmospheric circulation in the North will tend to pivot more and more on Greenland.

      In juxtaposition to Greenland, you have a greater tendency for ridge development to take place in the North Eastern Pacific and in Western through Central North America. As the center of cold shift to Greenland, warm air will tend to invade more through the Bering, Chukchi, Alaska, Beaufort, and Northwest Canada. So you end up with a bit of a dipole with Greenland as the cold center and the NW as the warm center.

      Adding to this mix will be the increasing releases of icebergs from Greenland and into the North Atlantic. These releases will locally cool the surface water in the North Atlantic adding to the dipole feature as a fresh water lens forms more persistently in the near Greenland ocean environment.

      The increasing warmth running in from the west and slamming into the increasing cold near and around Greenland generates a very stormy and unstable weather pattern for the North Atlantic. And the timing for this pattern to intensify does tend to pivot around the period when open ocean events are achieved.

      A handshake between Greenland and the Arctic Ocean appears to occur more dramatically when the added heat of waters due to albedo loss really start to hit the glaciers — which sets off the cycle of melt in a more dramatic fashion. At that point, you end up with a kind of tug of war between the cooling effect of the fresh water lens around Greenland and the albedo loss based warming of the High Arctic. That’s when things get really unstable. You could have very warm years followed by big melt pulses and much locally colder years in the North Atlantic and near Greenland. Sea ice may crash at first, see a recovery as a fresh water lens spreads out from Greenland as armadas of icebergs are released — only to crash again and repeat the cycle. Weather in this environment is likely to become very extreme and far less predictable. The North Atlantic itself will be awash in the various atmospheric and oceanic battles between heat and cold. And increasingly, tropical air will come into direct conflict with Greenland and North Atlantic cool pool air. Such extreme atmospheric instability has the potential to produce storms the likes of which Holocene humans have never witnessed. And some of Hansen’s earlier models were quite dramatic in this regard — envisioning frontal systems the size of continents but packing the severity of hurricanes across a few thousand mile span.

      As mentioned before, Greenland appears to be the pivot point in all this mess. But the impacts of so much heat heading north, the directly run into a wall of displaced cold well offset from the pole are likely to be quite dramatic. And the time-frame for the ramp up of such a series of events appears to coincide with the likely periods of ice free Arctic Ocean conditions that appear to be on the way and are likely to occur between now and 2032. During this period heat build-up and loss of albedo in the Arctic, we need to keep our eyes on Greenland. And we’ll get a signal that the melt/storm dynamic is coming into play when large swarms of ice bergs start being released. This year, we had some signal of this with record numbers of ice bergs flowing out from Baffin Bay. But this was not the main event. Just a precursor.

      A last thing to look at is global temperature. If paleoclimate is a decent indicator, it appears that global temperatures in the range of 1.5 to 2.5 C tend to set of a much greater level of ice sheet involvement. So we also have that range as an indicator for the kind of movement to major instability described above.

  4. Greg

     /  June 28, 2017

    Strange Gelatinous Sea Creatures Invade Northern California Coast–430965483.html
    (The ocean changes to ice are clear, changes to biota are not, and are equally ominous.)
    “spotted since 2015 in increasing numbers along the Northern California Current, which spans Northern California to Oregon and Washington, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.”

  5. Andy_in_SD

     /  June 29, 2017

    Nature is a vengeful creature at times….

    “Pods of killer whales are reportedly stalking Alaskan fishermen and driving them out of fishing areas while robbing them of their catch.

    The National Post reports that black cod and halibut fishers are being surrounded by orcas acting like “motorcycle gangs” and “chased out” of their areas of operation in the north Pacific. ”

    • Wow. The whales have had enough. Apparently they’ve figured out who’s taking their food.

      • mr elastomeric

         /  July 2, 2017

        Yeah scary part Robert is now those whales will be on the endangered list next time around commercial fisherman (are the pirates of the seas) Dead whales tell no tales

  6. Syd Bridges

     /  June 29, 2017

    Thank you once again for a timely post, Robert. Watching the Arctic this year has been like watching a drunk tightrope walker. So far, despite the odds, disaster has been averted, but there is still a lot of the wire to be traversed. Your heart hopes that he makes it, but your head notices the increasing wobbles and braces you for the worst. The problem is that even if he makes it this time, he’ll just have another drink and then go back the other way-more confident but also more drunk.

  7. And.. back to basics — sources of air pollution:

    “The major sources of air pollution include:

    the combustion of coal, oil, gas and other fuels for generating electricity;
    burning gasoline, diesel and other fuels for transportation;
    emissions from various industrial processes;
    burning wood and other fuels for heating and cooking;
    agricultural burning, land clearing and other man-made fires; and
    natural sources, including volcanoes, forest fires and dust storms.”

    Previous article taken down due to misleading content.

    • wili

       /  June 30, 2017

      Good list, though I would include a few more specifics on the ag front…but…maybe elided for sake of brevity here?

  8. redskylite

     /  June 29, 2017

    Thanks for keeping us up to date on the Arctic, certainly a fast changing area of the world. Climate Central reports unusual and extensive boreal forest fires around Siberia today, visible from NASA satellite releases. Usually the Siberian Times gives good coverage of these events, but news has been sparse of late, I hope censorship hasn’t finally got to the eastern press.

    “NASA’s satellites captured the scene on Friday from a few different vantage points. The Aqua satellite captured the extent of the thick plumes of smoke and fires dotting the region while the Suomi NPP satellite was able to analyze the air quality. Both show the stunning breadth of impacts wildfires can have. The Suomi NPP measurements in particular show that the aerosol index — a measure of air quality — hit 19, a mark that denotes very dense smoke. According to NASA Earth Observatory, scientists are also investigating signs that the fires were burning so intensely, they altered the local weather. There’s evidence pyrocumulus clouds formed, a phenomenon that occurs when wildfires burn so hot that they cause localized convection that eventually forms clouds. The region where fires are burning has been a hot spot on the global temperature map. Since November, temperatures have been up to 7°F above average with some months far exceeding that mark. Climate change has been driving up temperatures around the world, but the northern tier of the planet has seen temperatures rise twice as fast. “

  9. redskylite

     /  June 29, 2017

    And is the Russian government tightening up on science even more ? grim times indeed .

    Putin tightens control over Russian Academy of Sciences

    The Russian government has taken further steps to tighten its grip on the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) in Moscow. On 23 June, the State Duma—one of the two chambers of the Russian parliament—passed the first draft of a new law that would give President Vladimir Putin the final say in the elections for RAS’s presidency.

  10. Abel Adamski

     /  June 29, 2017

    Victorian greenhouse gets $565m wind farm

    A huge new wind farm will power a hydroponic farm in western Victoria as part of a $565 million expansion.

    The Nectar Farms business at Stawell will expand from 10 hectares to 40 and be powered by a new wind farm and battery storage facility, the state government announced on Tuesday.

    Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews says the project will make Stawell Nectar Farms the world’s first ever protected crop farm completely powered by renewable energy.

    “This really is a great example of what’s possible when you have a Victorian renewable energy target, a government that’s sensible, balanced, (and) job-friendly planning laws,” Mr Andrews told reporters on Tuesday.

    Three-quarters of the 1300 jobs created will be in construction, while about 270 will be ongoing at Nectar Farms and the wind facility.

    The wind farm will include 56 turbines at a cost of $350 million.

  11. Abel Adamski

     /  June 29, 2017

    Safe drinking water

    Graphene sieve turns seawater into drinking water

    • So there’s a lot of work going on with graphene lately. And a good amount of effort has been put into using graphene for more efficient solar cells and higher density batteries.

      As for other applications:

      “We’ve all heard about the wonder material graphene. This allotrope of carbon in hexagonal form on the atomic scale, one-atom-thick, is set to revolutionize the world (at least in theory). Faster CPUs, medical devices, sensors, batteries, ultra-strong materials, unprecedented energy collection…there is seemingly nothing the material can’t be applied for or incorporated into.

      And the categories continue to grow. Optoelectronics, spintronics, IR light detection, ethanol distillation, fuel cells, water filtration, and transistors are just a few of the many examples graphene has been used for since its current form inception (single-atom layer) was produced in 2004.

      The latest developments utilizing graphene are set to usher in new technology, including supercapacitors designed to bring high-performance and longer-lasting batteries; new transistors for ultra-fast CPUs that will make Moore’s Law obsolete; and graphene-based CMOS image sensors, capable of seeing UV, visible, and infrared light at the same time. Below are some of the more intriguing advancements with graphene that have surfaced this year…”

  12. Abel Adamski

     /  June 29, 2017

    What goes up

    More killer hail coming unless we curb global warming

    How hail is made

    Global warming changes everything about our climate, and that includes hail. You might think that in a warmer world it would be harder to make great balls of ice, but that is not the case. One clue is that severe hailstorms mostly occur in the heat of summer.

    To understand the impact of rising temperatures, we have to understand how hail is made. First you need water, and warmer air can hold more water. Second, you need to condense the water vapour and freeze it; this can happen even in summer because air temperature falls with height (on this factor, global warming inhibits hail, because the freezing level is higher).

    Third, you need thunderstorms with strong enough updrafts to keep hail suspended while it grows; it takes an 8-metre-per-second updraft to grow hail the size of a golf ball while 10 metres per second will give you ice the size of a cricket ball. Global warming favours larger hail because the warmer, wetter air results in greater condensation of water vapour in the lower atmosphere, which releases extra energy to strengthen thunderstorm updrafts.

    Integrating all these factors is a challenge, but a group of Canadian researchers has just published a study with this aim (Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3321).

    • Abel Adamski

       /  June 29, 2017

      The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change

      Anthropogenic climate change is anticipated to increase severe thunderstorm potential in North America, but the resulting changes in associated convective hazards are not well known. Here, using a novel modelling approach, we investigate the spatiotemporal changes in hail frequency and size between the present (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070). Although fewer hail days are expected over most areas in the future, an increase in the mean hail size is projected, with fewer small hail events and a shift toward a more frequent occurrence of larger hail. This leads to an anticipated increase in hail damage potential over most southern regions in spring, retreating to the higher latitudes (that is, north of 50° N) and the Rocky Mountains in the summer. In contrast, a dramatic decrease in hail frequency and damage potential is predicted over eastern and southeastern regions in spring and summer due to a significant increase in melting that mitigates gains in hail size from increased buoyancy.

    • That increased convection is a real brute…

  13. Abel Adamski

     /  June 29, 2017


    New study finds tree line not expanding with global warming​
    Seema Sharma | TNN | Jun 28, 2017, 10.37 PM IST

    DEHRADUN: A new study has debunked a widely-held belief in the scientific community that global warming would cause the tree line — the mountain zone after which trees stop growing — to advance upslope.

    The initial findings of the research, which is being conducted under the National Mission for Himalayan Studies implemented by the ministry of environment, forest & climate change, suggest that with increase in global temperatures, tree lines were not shifting to higher elevations. Researchers said that one reason could be that warmer temperatures were leading to drier conditions which negatively affected seed survival.

    R S Rawal, a scientist at GBPIHED, said, “Climate change is inducing species to come up with strange survival strategies. Tall trees in Himalayas were able to germinate with the help of a shrub species, Juniperus, which formed a thicket over seeds of these trees to protect them from snow, rain and air.”

    The study also found that contrary to scientific belief, temperature plunged 0.5 degree Celsius with 100m rise in altitude. It was earlier believed that a decrease of 0.6 degree Celsius was witnessed with 100m rise in altitude.

  14. Abel Adamski

     /  June 29, 2017

    China Is Building A ‘Forest City’ And It Looks Absolutely Incredible

    Plans for a green ‘forest city’ that will help to fight pollution are about to become a reality as construction begins on an innovative new project in southern China.

    The Liuzhou Forest City, designed by Italian architectural firm Stefano Boeri Architetti, is the first ever city of its kind as it will produce 900 tonnes of oxygen and help absorb almost 10,000 tons of carbon dioxide and 57 tonnes of pollutants every year.

  15. Jacque

     /  June 29, 2017

    Bloomberg: “The wheat varieties that trade on U.S. commodity exchanges are diverging sharply in price. Spring wheat is fetching a growing premium to the winter classes grown in the Great Plains and Midwest, with the spread against hard red winter wheat futures reaching a nine-year high. That’s because the spring crop, which still has several weeks left to develop, is in poor shape as drought conditions persist in northern states.”

    • Jacque

       /  June 29, 2017

      From Eric Holthaus (sciencebyericholthau newsletter) today: “There’s a quickly worsening drought right now in the upper Midwest. In just the last week, “extreme” drought expanded from 7.7 percent to 25.1 percent of North Dakota, the hardest-hit state. And next week, a multi-day heat wave is on the way. It’s expected to reach as high as 107 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of the Dakotas, more than 20 degrees above normal.

      Why does that matter? For one, it might seriously affect this year’s wheat harvest there.

      Wheat is humanity’s most important grain food source, the United States is the world’s largest wheat exporter, and the Dakotas and Montana are now the most important wheat growing region of the United States. Wheat prices have already gone up more than 10 percent in just the past few weeks in response to the drought. This year’s American wheat crop is currently rated the worst in 29 years. In large parts of the Dakotas and eastern Montana, spring rains have been less than half of normal. Although this is a worrying development, it doesn’t yet directly equate to a major food crisis, though—we won’t know that until the harvest is completed in the comping weeks. According to one wheat analyst, “It’s pretty likely that we’ll get high-protein wheat at harvest — there just won’t be that much of it.”

      As with every weather event in a world where human influence now entirely dominates the atmosphere, there’s a climate change story here. For decades, Kansas has been America’s wheat state. That title recently shifted to North Dakota, as better growing conditions have moved north due to warming temperatures.”

  16. Suzanne

     /  June 29, 2017

    Front page NY Times:
    “As Climate Changes, Souther States will Suffer more than the Others”

  17. I’ve been posting lately about the twin hot blobs near Svalbard island, in the Barents Sea and Greenland Sea, based on images from earthnullschool. These sea surface temperature anomalies are as much as 10 degrees C above an average of historical temperatures.

    In ocean temperature anomalies, 3 degrees C is huge. Twin anomalies of ten degrees C, persisting for two years, summer and winter, seems really, really huge, to me.

    Keeping in mind that earthnullschool is a (wonderful) amateur effort that uses official data, but does contain occasional bugs, I have been checking the earthnullschool images against official sources.

    The NOAA National Weather Service Environmental Monitoring Center images also show the same hot blobs:

    So, if these are glitches or artifacts, they originate further up the food chain than earthnullschool, from official sources. More and more, it’s looking like these twin hot blobs are real. It’s still possible, maybe, that they could be comparing open water now to sea ice decades ago, but surely NOAA would be aware of this possibility? These hot blobs persist, summer and winter, and surely these areas were ice free in the summer, even decades ago?

    The silence in the news and on the web about these breathtaking anomalies is deafening. These anomalies cry out for investigation, I think.

    These are sites of active large scale methane venting, from ice sheet relic metastable methane hydrate. Because a lot of this hydrate is metastable, and is relic hydrate outside the gas hydrate stability zone of pressure and temperature, it is especially sensitive to changes in ocean temperatures. Both of these blobs are in areas where anomalously warm Gulf Stream water is entering the Arctic.


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