Not time to Let Our Guard Down With Harvey; Rainstorm Expected to Last 5-9 More Days

As of early afternoon on Saturday Harvey was about to be downgraded to a strong tropical storm after slamming into the Texas coast as a Category 4 monster hurricane packing 130 mph sustained winds. Residents along the coast are just now starting to assess the initial damage from this first major blow. However, the big rain event that is Harvey is just now getting started.

(Harvey’s rains expand over Eastern Texas at 245 PM EST. Image source: National Weather Service.)

According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm’s forward speed has now slowed down to about 2 miles per hour in a north-bound direction. Meanwhile, its shield of encircling rains is expanding to cover most of eastern Texas. These rains are very intense — producing accumulations of more than 1 inch per hour in many locations. And with Harvey stalling out, such heavy rains are expected to persist over basically the same region and at a similar high intensity for at least the next four days. After that time, Harvey is expected to persist and rains of lighter, but still flood-producing force, may continue to fall over parts of Texas for up to five more days.

(Harvey has already dumped nearly 15 inches of rain on some locations. Despite this fact, NOAA is still predicting more than 20 inches of additional rain. Some models are indicating that final totals could range from 40-60 inches in some locations after a 6-10 day rain event. Image source: NOAA.)

It’s worth noting that though up to 15 inches of rain have already fallen from Harvey, the longer range models still show in excess of another 20 inches coming from the storm over the next week. Many models indicate that more than 40 inches of rain could fall in total. And some of our best models yesterday indicated a potential for up to 60 inches in some locations by the time all is said and done.

In other words, this storm is far from over. The main event, in which Harvey may ultimately produce historic rainfall totals, is just getting ramped up. So now is not the time to relax our guard.

(UPDATED 1)

Links:

See Notes on Climate Change’s Influence on Harvey Here

The National Hurricane Center

National Weather Service

NOAA

Rainfall Rising Nearing 15 Inches in Some Locations

Global Forecast System Model Reanalysis

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92 Comments

  1. eleggua

     /  August 26, 2017

    Harvey made ~~~two~~~ landfalls last night, apparently. Meteorologist mentioned it on that Houston CBS live feed earlier today and it’s referenced here, too.

    http://heavy.com/news/2017/08/rockport-rainfall-rain-totals-hurricane-harvey-weather-service-official-texas/

    “Hurricane Harvey was a Category 4 when it made its first landfall tonight (yes, it ended up making two landfalls in one night.) “

    Reply
  2. eleggua

     /  August 26, 2017

    ‘Hurricane Harvey Live Beach Cam from Galveston’

    Talking about the stall and gradual spindown, right now.

    Reply
    • So it’s as the storm spins out that its rain shield can greatly expand. Right now, there’s also a very strong moisture flow being drawn into the storm from the Gulf. Especially over Houston.

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  August 27, 2017

        “Houston to get up to three inches of rain per hour

        Houston could receive as much as two to three inches (five to seven and a half centimeters) of rain per hour in the upcoming hours due to Tropical Storm Harvey, Mayor Sylvester Turner said on Saturday.

        “We got a break for several hours during the day (but) several rainbands will be coming through tonight. Please be alert,” Turner said on his Tweeter account.”

        Reply
  3. eleggua

     /  August 26, 2017

    PBS Watch Live: Hurricane Harvey batters Galveston, Texas

    Reply
  4. eleggua

     /  August 26, 2017

    Jeff Piotrowski “gets hit with ocean waves as Hurricane Harvey tears into beach front property while he live streams it” yesterday. Gets a bit intense toward the end.

    Reply
  5. cushngtree

     /  August 26, 2017

    Any way to take that Harvey swirl and place it elsewhere on a map? I know Texas is a big state, and the hurricane portion covers a quarter of the state…for visceral effect, I’d like to be able to put that over Maryland, or New Hampshire, or Wyoming, states I’m more familiar with.

    Reply
    • Just posted the 245 PM EST radar update from the National Weather Service. That rain shield is still growing. Eastern Houston has been getting pounded for about 6 hours now.

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  August 27, 2017

      Katrina and Harvey, side by side. Harvey was Cat 3 at the time of that image collection.

      Reply
  6. Off the news radar, but Hong Kong is about to get hit by a second typhoon and deluge in just a single week

    Reply
  7. Suzanne

     /  August 26, 2017

    Some aerial footage of RockPort after Harvey …

    Reply
    • Looks like things got pretty ripped up down there.

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  August 27, 2017

        Much worse than what’s evident in that vid. Drone on this one covered a lot of area, coming in for some fairly close-up closeups.

        ’08-26-2017 Rockport, Texas – Hurricane Harvey aerial imagery destruction’

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  August 27, 2017

        Compare and contrast with 2010’s Alex.

        ‘Down Town Rockport Tx. Hurricane Alex 2010 ‘
        “Just a drive down town in the eye of the storm.”

        Reply
    • eleggua

       /  August 27, 2017

      Whoa.

      ‘Extreme Hurricane Harvey Video from Aransas County, TX – 8/25/2017’

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  August 27, 2017

      ‘Hurricane Harvey Eye Wall Extreme Winds, Rockport, TX – 8/25/2017 ‘

      Someone in Rockport last night said the wind sounded like a gigantic locomotive with square wheels roaring through at a 100mph.

      Reply
  8. Greg

     /  August 26, 2017

    This is radar loop through tomorrow night. Houston getting hit hard
    [video src="https://i.imgur.com/ckynON6.mp4" /]

    Reply
  9. eleggua

     /  August 27, 2017

    Reply
  10. Greg

     /  August 27, 2017

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
    1017 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

    ..Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding has begun…

    .DISCUSSION…

    Rainfall rates of up to 4 to 6 inches per hour…one Harris County
    gage recorded 3.08 inches in 30 minutes…have been occuring this
    evening in and around the Houston area resulting in dangerous and
    life-threatening flash flooding. These rains, associated with the
    rainbands from Tropical Storm Harvey, have been slowly edging
    eastward and easily dumping 3 to 5 inches of rain on saturated
    grounds. Models are showing possible additional rainband development
    during the overnight hours and again over at least the next several
    days as Harvey and its circulation remains off to our west.
    This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. 42
    &&

    Reply
  11. eleggua

     /  August 27, 2017

    ‘Tropical Storm Harvey Update: Destruction and rain isn’t over yet ‘

    Very good San Antonio local weather report at the beginning of the broadcast.^^^

    Reply
  12. wili

     /  August 27, 2017

    “Harvey is expected to move about 100 miles in the next 5 days—a speed of less than 1mph.
    Tremendous flood potential.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901606187224924160

    Reply
  13. Greg

     /  August 27, 2017

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  August 27, 2017

      “a 1-in-500 year event”

      In a few years or so, that sort of quote may involve months not years as these events become commonplace. Ugh.

      Reply
  14. eleggua

     /  August 27, 2017

    “There’s a real sense, and I’m not exaggerating, a real sense of just terror just being outside in this.”

    ‘David Yeomans in the eyewall of Hurricane Harvey in Rockport’

    “A crazy experience as David experiences being in the eyewall of Hurricane Harvey.”

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  August 27, 2017

      “This is just incredible.
      As a meteorologist, this is sort of a dream … but of course it’s also a nightmare, as I realize the human impact this is having even as I speak.”

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  August 27, 2017

      ‘KXAN crews inside the eye of Hurricane Harvey in Rockport as it moves in ‘
      “KXAN’s David Yeomans and Wes Rapaport are in Rockport.”

      “…the hotel was swaying…”

      Reply
  15. eleggua

     /  August 27, 2017

    Translation:
    “Sudden Flood Warning includes Sugar Land TX, Missouri City TX, Mission Bend TX until 4:00 AM CDT”

    Reply
  16. eleggua

     /  August 27, 2017

    “Totals continue to pile up.”

    Reply
  17. eleggua

     /  August 27, 2017

    Tweets from NWS Houston from the past two hours.

    “FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY: Around & north Hobby Airport to Pearland & Friendswood. PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL!”

    “A NEW FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE HOBBY AREA TO PEARLAND AND FRIENDSWOOD IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1:45 AM!!”

    “Radar Update 10:16 PM: FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY still in effect. Rain Rates per Hour of 4 to 5 inches. Stay Put! Especially dangerous at night.”

    “This is an extremely dangerous & life-threatening situation. Be especially cautious at night as its harder to recognize dangers of flooding.”

    “STAY PUT. Avoid driving at all expense unless you are attempting to flee an area subject to flooding. THIS IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION.”

    Reply
  18. eleggua

     /  August 27, 2017

    ‘Turn Around, Don’t Drown PSA’

    “Never Drive or Walk into Flood Waters – Turn Around Don’t Drown!

    Flooding is one of the leading causes of weather related fatalities in the U.S. On average, flooding claims nearly 90 lives each year. More than half of these deaths occur in motor vehicles when people attempt to drive through flooded roadways. This happens because people underestimate the force and power of water, especially when it is moving.

    Just six inches of fast-moving water can knock over and carry off an adult. Twelve inches of water can float a small car. If that water is moving, it can carry that car away. Eighteen to twenty-four inches of flowing water can carry away most vehicles, including large SUVs. It is impossible to tell the exact depth of water covering a roadway or the condition of the road below the water. This is especially true at night when your vision is more limited. It is never safe to drive or walk through flood waters. Any time you come to a flooded road, walkway, or path, follow this simple rule: Turn Around Don’t Drown. “

    Reply
  19. eleggua

     /  August 27, 2017

    “Ten critically ill babies in Corpus Christi were taken to a hospital in North Texas ahead of the storm, the Cook Children’s Hospital in Fort Worth said in a statement.

    “All our babies made it here safely,” Dawn Lindley, a registered nurse with Children’s Health Transport Team, told CNN. “The majority … were premature and had ongoing issues. They were easily accommodated to the hospitals here to make sure they had continued care and the storm wasn’t going to be a factor in how they recovered from their illnesses.””

    Reply
  20. Cat6 blog has live comments by really great bloggers witnessing serious flooding problems in Houston.Ie one blogger trying to advise others who are frightened as their house floods..Both of you need to have power tools or an axe, or chainsaw in the attic in case you have to get through your roof. Put all your valuables in ziploc bags and up on higher ground. Do this while you still have time. This is serious, please be prepared, it could save your life.
    1
    https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/heavy-damage-texas-harvey-now-tropical-storm…then read the comment section in realtime..as Colo Bob mentioned yesterday

    Reply
    • FMark Sudduth ✔ @hurricanetrack
      People are driving the wrong way on 610 because they are trapped it is absolute pandemonium out here
      11:05 PM – Aug 26, 2017 · Houston, TX
      6 6 Replies 51 51 Retweets 37 37 likesrom that blog:

      Reply
      • More worried bloggers,,1
        •Reply•Share ›
        Avatar
        Robinson • an hour ago
        I-10 east at mccarty. what a mess. Gotta be hundreds of cars just parked.

        •Reply•Share ›
        Avatar
        SavannahStorm Robinson • an hour ago
        Yea, they are stuck there and the water will keep rising.

        •Reply•Share ›
        Avatar
        weathergod Robinson • an hour ago
        People trapped

        •Reply•Share ›
        Avatar
        Robinson weathergod • an hour ago
        It appears. They are in their cars and news man said they will probably spend night there. Boy I hope water don’t rise there.

        Reply
        • Suzanne

           /  August 27, 2017

          Just an awful…awful night for so many in Houston and it’s surrounding area…and I fear it is only going to get worse….

        • eleggua

           /  August 27, 2017

          Immediate, massive introduction of Nat.Guard troops and copters to ferry people off the highway and roofs. Fnck the Tweets; send in the troops where they’re actually needed, not Afghanistan.

  21. Genomik

     /  August 27, 2017

    This appears to be a local Houston weather site. It’s insane what is going on in Houston.

    https://spacecityweather.com/a-bad-situation-in-houston-has-turned-worse-much-worse/

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  August 27, 2017

      From ^that^ page.

      “At some point, this must end. But it does not appear likely to do so anytime soon. It is not clear to me whether the homes flooded by Harvey in the greater Houston area will tally in the thousands, tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands, but it will be many. This community will have to come together after another devastating flood that seems likely to approach the same magnitude as that of our previous reference event, Tropical Storm Allison.

      That is two historic floods in less than two decades.

      Hopefully, we will learn from this. Certainly, we will rebuild.”

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  August 27, 2017

      Comments from above^.

      Natalie Gray
      August 27, 2017 at 3:44 am
      – You can’t rebuild. This is going to keep on happening with Climate Change, and it will just get worse. Relocate inland. Be safe.

      Marcus J Fleming
      August 27, 2017 at 4:51 am
      – Shut up already with the global warming crap.

      Leslie
      August 27, 2017 at 6:35 am
      – It’s you idiots who need to shut up.
      Have you no shame.
      The last of the deniers just sound completely unhinged now – denying climate change is happening even as major cities flood.
      Disgusting, ignorant and vile.

      Jane
      August 27, 2017 at 6:48 am
      – This is not the time for this. People are dealing with enough right now. Wait for a better time to spew your “happy ” thoughts.

      daniel
      August 27, 2017 at 7:37 am
      – go hug a gator you left wing twinkies that believe this crap. so no hurricanes in 12 years was climate change?

      Dottie
      August 27, 2017 at 7:51 am
      – it has nothing to do with climate change…Y’all keep babbling even though there is no proof. Temps in the last 18 years have not risen. Show me data, proof instead of emotional knee jerk repition of what someone else has told you to try to manipulate you. A storm is not proof…thats called weather. Where’s the data?

      Michael Higgins
      August 27, 2017 at 8:17 am
      – We haven’t had a major hurricane in Houston since 2008. Get over yourselves and your idiotic rhetoric about climate change.

      Ernest
      August 27, 2017 at 9:00 am
      – You’re an idiot climate change did not cause this

      Bob
      August 27, 2017 at 9:01 am
      – God is in control of the weather and these msy be signs that as a people we need to turn back to him. Climatr change is a hoax. Always has been.

      Serious
      August 27, 2017 at 9:50 am
      – Everyone arguing on this needs to stop.
      People are suffering and possibly dying from this weather event.
      Doesn’t matter. Pray for the safety of the 8 million people in and around Houston.

      Jill Hardin
      August 27, 2017 at 9:56 am
      – Dottie
      This May not be because of climate change – hurricanes tornado – floods happen – BUT do your research on climate change look up Iceland and other countries . It is happening and it is affecting our animals habitat.
      THIS IS NOT THE PLACE TO BE DEBATING THESE THINGS — BUT PPL B4 YOU SPEW IGNORANCE DO YOUR RESEARCH.
      GOOD BLESS EVERYONE AFFECTED BY THIS HURRICANE AND THE FLOODING. PLEASE BE SAFE PLEASE THAT’S WHAT’S MOST IMPORTANT RIGHT NOW.

      Annette
      August 27, 2017 at 10:04 am
      – Climate change has been happening for eons, and will continue to do so. God is in charge, not man

      Tom Mahan
      August 27, 2017 at 10:27 am
      – Tell the geoengineers to stop trying to control the weather and it will return to normal….eventually. Not only are they causing the problems, they are polluting our air.

      Julie Tomlinson
      August 27, 2017 at 7:18 am
      – You go on thinking climate change is “crap”. Don’t listen to the scientists, the experts. Thats the American way unfortunately. See how that will work out. smh

      K S
      August 27, 2017 at 10:04 am
      – Don’t be daft. Look at the trends for thousands of years and you see we’re actually in a cooling trend, not warming.

      Reg
      August 27, 2017 at 7:19 am
      – Yes shut up, this happened when Claudette came thru, we didn’t blame it on global warming. It is all the concrete from the growing cities! There is no place for the water to go, except into structures. NO ONE planned for the water.

      Renee
      August 27, 2017 at 8:30 am
      – So true…. Climate can ONLY affect so much. If someone wants to argue this, please do so ONLY after you complete the following experiment: take a foldable table and stand it up in a garden tub, small pool, or something that holds water. (This represents land and roads) Put a garden hose on top and turn in on. Start stacking bricks and/ or concrete blocks on top the table. (This represents buildings – houses and skyscrapers). After EACH layer is complete, add an extra hose that is turned on. (This represents extra water sources – bayous, sewage, ditches, etc. ) The weight will eventually buckle the table and everything will be wet and covered in water. If you you use your science and math skills, you’ll realize the land WILL sink. There are limited areas for water to go.
      Construction is done at an extremely fast rate in larger areas in the city and surrounding towns. Look at the building boom in Houston, Woodlands, Tomball, Katy, Cypress, etc. It’s ridiculous to watch the number of new neighborhoods and businesses that are going in.
      Consideration for safety in floods has taken a back seat. Instead of building roads up, they have them dip down where water gathers. Neighborhoods are built on and around areas where water gathers. Now do you have a better picture of the problem?

      Bruce
      August 27, 2017 at 9:00 am
      – You’ll find out, denier.

      Leslie
      August 27, 2017 at 6:38 am
      – It’s you idiots who need to shut up.
      Have you no shame.
      The last of the deniers just sound completely unhinged now – denying climate change is happening even as major cities flood.
      Disgusting, ignorant and vile.

      Larry
      August 27, 2017 at 7:46 am
      – Leslie, these fools will never shut up. Let’s just sell them oceanside properties and let nature take its course.

      Ann Lo
      August 27, 2017 at 8:55 am
      – Well said, Larry

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  August 27, 2017

        Obviously the comments favour denial, at least today. Wake up call? Now not even sure it will be one there locally much less nationally.

        Reply
      • There are clear climate change influences that impacted Harvey. Will post a complete assessment following the event. Likely later this week.

        The quality of the comments (or lack thereof) are unsurprising. Merchant of doubting going on as usual. It’s worth noting that a majority of the public agrees with the scientists. So these comments are not fully representative. Perhaps they are representative of the views of those living in Texas (or other major fossil fuel producing regions). Although the public consensus is closer to 55 percent while the scientific consensus is higher than 97 percent.

        Reply
      • The city’s washing away and they’re arguing about whether it’s happening. Texas, all right.

        Reply
  22. Suzanne

     /  August 27, 2017

    Understanding Climate Change has a video up on Hurricane Harvey…

    Reply
    • Suzanne

       /  August 27, 2017

      Also…includes the continuing devastation from monsoon floods in India, Bangladesh and Nepal….the lingering effects from Typhoon Hato..and images from wildfires in Canada. Devastating images from around the globe…

      Reply
  23. Listen live ..The Mayor of Houston has an announcement at 11…They need a LOT of help How about Natl Guard?? https://www.click2houston.com/live/watch-live-kprc-2-news

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  August 27, 2017

      “Orangie, you’re doing a heckuva job.”

      Reply
      • Yeah. That relaxing of the flood standards just prior to what may well be the worst flood in U.S. history was a great job. So was using the hurricane as cover for a presidential pardon of someone who spent 20 years setting up a concentration camp along the U.S. border.

        Reply
        • eleggua

           /  August 28, 2017

          From an interview with John le Carré and Ben Macintyre in today’s NYT Book Review.

          J.L.C. …the genetic inheritance I got from my father. This was a man who, while still being pursued by the police, or bankrupt, or Christ knows what, who had done prison time, then boldly stands as a parliamentary candidate. He had a huge capacity for invention. He had absolutely no relationship to the truth. He would come talk to me in the morning and I would challenge him, and in the evening he would say, “That’s not what I said to you.”

          S.L. Do you see parallels with President Trump’s view of the truth?

          J.L.C. Exactly that. He is the most recent model. Before that it was Robert Maxwell. The parallels are extraordinary. My sister, too, we absolutely recognize the same syndrome. There is not a grain of truth there.

          S.L. Do you think the Russians really have something on Trump?

          B.M. I can tell you what the veterans of the S.I.S. [the British Secret Intelligence Service, or MI6] think, which is yes, kompromat was done on him. Of course, kompromat is done on everyone. So they end up, the theory goes, with this compromising bit of material and then they begin to release parts of it. They set up an ex-MI6 guy, Chris Steele, who is a patsy, effectively, and they feed him some stuff that’s true, and some stuff that isn’t true, and some stuff that is demonstrably wrong. Which means that Trump can then stand up and deny it, while knowing that the essence of it is true. And then he has a stone in his shoe for the rest of his administration.

          It’s important to remember that Putin is a K.G.B.-trained officer, and he thinks in the traditional K.G.B. way.

          J.L.C. The mentality that is operating in Russia now is absolutely, as far as Putin is concerned, no different to the mentality that drove the most exotic conspiracies during the Cold War. It worked then, it works now. As far as Trump, I would suspect they have it, because they’ve denied it. If they have it and they’ve set Trump up, they’d say, “Oh no, we haven’t got anything.” But to Trump they’re saying, “Aren’t we being kind to you?”

          B.M. And today you get this wonderful Russian lawyer woman [Natalia Veselnitskaya, who was in the pre-election meeting at Trump Tower with Donald Trump Jr.] who is straight out of one of our books, a character that is possibly connected to the Russian state. Who knows? They exist somewhere in that foggy, deniable hinterland. It’s called maskirovka — little masquerade — where you create so much confusion and uncertainty and mystery that no one knows what the truth is.

          J.L.C. For Putin, it’s a kind of little piece of background music to keep things going. The smoking gun might or might not be the documents exchanged about the Trump Tower in Moscow [which Trump is said to have been planning to build]. Then there’s the really seedy stuff in the Caucasus. There are bits of scandal which, if added up, might suggest he went to Russia for money. And that would then fit in with the fact that he isn’t half as, a tenth as rich as he pretends to be.

        • eleggua

           /  August 28, 2017

          Treason. That’s the ticket and it ought to be punched before anyone else is charged so he’s unable to pull any more bogus pardons when others -friends and family – are charged. Do you have any take on the ongoing investigation? Seems those folks would love to nail him and rightly so. Seems they’re taking time to have an undeniable, tightknit case before pulling the trigger.

  24. The news station reports all rivers over flood levels and a site for the condition of rivers..News people say best thing for people to do is to call 911,IF you can get through,and just hold on the line

    Reply
  25. wili

     /  August 27, 2017

    Just saw this: Model “0Z ECMWF re intensifies Harvey over the Gulf and slams it into Houston with hurricane force gusts. That would be unthinkably catastrophic”

    Yikes!

    Reply
  26. Greg

     /  August 27, 2017

    This is going to be a ‘natural’ disaster that the United States has not seen, even after Katrina and Sandy. There are 5.2 million unevacuated residents in Houston alone.

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  August 27, 2017

      A couple of abbv. tweets do not cut it.

      Preparedness was ignored from the top; proactive involvement three daze ago would’ve made a huge difference on the lives of those now under threat and worse.

      Reply
    • Andy_in_SD

       /  August 27, 2017

      At the bottom of that it says “people fleeing to attics”.

      This is going to get really bad with fatalities if that is the case and the water keeps rising. I was reading that the worst case estimates are being bypassed with what is occurring.

      Reply
  27. eleggua

     /  August 27, 2017

    ‘The biggest divide on climate change is among the most highly educated’
    8.27.2017

    https://qz.com/1060080/the-biggest-divide-on-climate-change-is-among-the-most-highly-educated/

    “…
    A study published this week in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences showed that among the most educated, there’s actually a deep divide in beliefs about controversial scientific issues.

    The researchers analyzed public opinions on six topics—stem cell research, the big bang, human evolution, climate change, nanotechnology, and genetically modified foods—based on more than 6,500 responses from the General Social Survey (a national survey conducted once every two years.) Overall, they found that education level was “at best weakly related” to acceptance of the scientific consensus.

    They write:

    “We found that where religious or political polarization existed, it was greater among individuals with more general education and among individuals with greater scientific knowledge, as measured by both whether they had taken science courses and how they scored on a test of science literacy.”…”

    Reply
    • A bit misleading (probably unintentionally). Among climate scientists, there’s practically no divide on basic causes. What this study shows is that generally more educated people tend to dig their heels in more and attempt to use data to support their views than others. In other words, it’s confirmation bias writ large.

      But from the point of view of climate change itself , the various facts weigh in overwelming favor of an outstanding pile of scientific evidence supporting the fact that climate change is human-caused and that the consensus science is mostly right on the subject. There are a few outlier issues that the consensus science has some difficulty tracking. But any study of anything weather and climate related is going to have trouble nailing down the most extreme outcomes which inevitably have high levels of uncertainty involved.

      Reply
    • wili

       /  August 27, 2017

      Yeah, they should have made clear that those who are actually educated in the directly relevant science, there is essentially no divide. But as someone who has a conservative uncle who was a high level research scientist in blood diseases and dean of a major medical school, who is also a gw denier, I can attest that very intelligent people can indeed easily be blinded by their ideology (and by their unflinching devotion to the opinions expressed in the WSJ editorials). :-\

      Reply
  28. eleggua

     /  August 27, 2017

    ‘Houston officials: Do NOT get into your attic to escape flood; go to roof’
    8:01 AM. EDT August 27, 2017

    http://www.wtsp.com/news/houston-officials-do-not-get-into-your-attic-to-escape-flood-go-to-roof/468092154

    “There is “extraordinarily dangerous flooding” in southeast Houston, according to Jeff Lindner with the Harris County Flood Control District.

    “We are getting calls from people climbing into their attic. This is along I-45 between downtown and Clear Lake,” Lindner said. “This is along Berry Bayou, Beamer Ditch, Turkey Creek, portions of Clear Creek, Vince Bayou, Little Vince Bayou in Pasadena,” he said. “Pretty much the entire southeast side of Harris County has had 13 to 15 inches of rain in three hours.”

    Lindner said they’re also seeing flooding along portions of Hunting Bayou, downtown along Buffalo Bayou, Brays Bayou and Keegan’s Bayou.

    Chief Art Acevedo tweeted,” have reports of people getting into attic to escape floodwater do not do so unless you have an ax or means to break through onto your roof.”

    Emergency officials warn that people should NOT go into their attics, but instead go to the roof. They also say if 911 doesn’t answer immediately, it is important to stay on the line.

    “Virtually every watershed in this county, minus the extreme east side, is facing very significant flooding right now,” Lindner said.

    Lindner calls the rainfall totals “staggering.””

    Reply
    • Thank goodness they are making this announcement. Better to be stuck out in the rain than trapped in the attic and drowning. Climb out don’t drown.

      Reply
  29. Andy_in_SD

     /  August 27, 2017

    Reply
  30. Andy_in_SD

     /  August 27, 2017

    Some models are now showing this storm moving back out into the gulf, then swinging back into Houston.

    Reply
    • Leland Palmer

       /  August 27, 2017

      Nothing to prevent that happening, I guess. It’s a matter of probabilities. But the huge reservoir of heat in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico makes such scenarios much more likely, it seems.

      The coverage of the Weather Channel is good, but nobody is saying “global warming”. It’s a teachable moment, and the Weather Channel that is a commercial operation relying on advertising is apparently afraid of offending the Trump supporters and climate science deniers. But, the message is getting through to most people, anyway, I think.

      Earth Nullschool is projecting using GFS continuing heavy rainfall in the area at least through early September:

      https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/01/1200Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=precip_3hr/orthographic=-100.74,28.68,2167/loc=-96.389,33.486

      Reply
      • Leland Palmer

         /  August 27, 2017

        Lack of high level wind shear is allowing the system to hover and stay somewhat organized.

        Is a lack of high level wind shear related to global warming? Dunno. What would Jennifer Francis say about this, I wonder?

        Reply
        • Leland Palmer

           /  August 27, 2017

          Is this flooding event possibly connected to the general slowdown of jet stream planetary waves? I wonder what the experts like Michael Mann and Jennifer Francis are saying about Harvey?

          https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27032017/climate-change-global-warming-extreme-weather-jet-stream-michael-mann-penn-state

        • wili

           /  August 27, 2017

          Leland, my understanding is that, no, GW actually corresponds to higher windshear more often. That’s why they do not expect there to be more _frequent_ hurricanes, even though there will otherwise be more conducive conditions for their formation. But when the wind shear happens not to show up to cut them apart, we are more likely to see the hurricanes that do develop turn into these kinds of monsters. That’s my understanding anyway. Others can correct and or supplement if so inclined.

        • It’s generally unclear. At 1-2 C there does appear to be generally more shear. But long periods of atmospheric stagnation and regions of very low shear can also tend to emerge.

        • As well as jet stream slowdown and stalling, there is also a lot of just breaking up and splitting of the jets. I I don’t know how that aspect could be measured, but it would seem to add more uncertainty to predictions based on a predominately intact, but slower jet.

    • Nightmare scenario if it emerges.

      Reply
    • wili

       /  August 27, 2017

      Stupid question: one of the models that shows this thing going back out to sea indicates that central pressure will dip below 1000 mbs again. Is that part of a definition of a hurricane, or is it just windspeed that counts. Couldn’t find much on this with a cursory search.

      Reply
  31. climatehawk1

     /  August 27, 2017

    Reply
  32. Eric Thurston

     /  August 27, 2017

    Meanwhile, in the Pacific Northwest…
    Temperature was forecast here in Cottage Grove, OR to get close to 100F today but smoke from the wildfires is so thick we will probably not get over 85F. What a devil’s bargain. Roast in the heat or feel the burn in your lungs.

    The floods in Texas are quick and devastating. Wiping out people and property. The drought here is slower and more insidious, year after year gradually turning the land into a strange type of desert where we get heavy rain for about 3 months and then high temps and zilch rain for months on end.

    Human induced climate change? Oh yeah. No doubt about it!

    Reply
  33. Greg

     /  August 27, 2017

    The United States’ 4th largest city and this ain’t over:

    Reply

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