Models Show Irma Tracking Toward 88 Degree (F) Waters Before Setting Sights on Florida, Georgia and South Carolina

As of yesterday and today, Irma was the strongest storm ever to form in the Central Atlantic. Fueled by record atmospheric and ocean heat and related high atmospheric moisture content, the storm plowed into the Leeward Islands of Barbuda, St. Martin and Anguilla as a top-strength Category 5 monster hurricane.

(Alex Woolfall takes shelter in a concrete stairwell in St. Martin to avoid Irma’s catastrophic winds. It’s worth noting that hurricanes are heat engines. Tapping 87 F sea surface temperatures and producing 100 percent humidity would result in the very hot conditions Alex was experiencing 7 hours ago. We’re all pulling for Alex and those like him who were trapped in the belly of this massive beast. His last report was at 5:45 AM.)

As Irma’s eyewall began to pass over Barbuda, a reporting station recorded a wind gust of 155 mph before it was knocked out. That island of 1,800 people is now completely cut off from the outside world. Having just experienced winds in excess of those hosted by Andrew and Camille, it is likely that catastrophic damage was inflicted.

On St. Martin, which also passed through Irma’s eye and most intense wind bands, initial reports are also showing very considerable damage. Four of the strongest buildings on the island have been destroyed. And it is expected that most structures across this French/Dutch shared island which is home to 75,000 have seen moderate to catastrophic damage.

(Footage this morning, apparently taken from a camera near the airport at Simpson Bay in St. Martin shows debris, flooding, and very strong winds.)

Anguilla, which is north of St. Martin and is home to another 15,000 souls, passed through the northern eye wall. This is typically the most intense part of a hurricane. So far, reports from Anguila are spotty. But the damage there is likewise expected to be catastrophic.

As of the 5 PM advisory, according to the National Hurricane Center, Irma is still a devastatingly powerful Category 5 monster hurricane hosting maximum sustained winds of 185 mph. The storm had seen some weakening due to apparent eyewall replacement and mild wind sheer — which pushed pressures back up to 920 mb from a low of 914 mb last night earlier today. However, this weakening was not significant enough to impact Irma’s amazing wind intensity. Since that time, Irma’s central dense overcast has thickened while pressures have dropped back down to 914 mb as of the 5 PM advisory.

(Irma tracking just slightly north of the officially projected path from the NHC as of early afternoon on Wednesday. Image source: The National Hurricane Center.)

As the storm passes toward the Virgin Islands, roars by Puerto Rico, and howls into the Turks, Caicos and Bahamas, it is likely that some weakening will occur. Despite this fact, the storm is expected to maintain Category 5 intensity through at least the next 48 hours. After 72 hours, the official forecast calls for Irma to drop to strong Category 4 intensity and eventually a strong Category 3 by Monday. However, some models like the GFS show Irma again strengthening as it taps very warm waters off Florida.

(Very hot sea surface temperatures off Florida could provide fuel that allows Irma to strengthen a second time as predicted in forecast models like the GFS. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

Most models are now starting to settle on a consensus that brings Irma toward Florida and along a course that may threaten Georgia and South Carolina. The GFS model shows Irma tapping extremely hot sea surface temperatures in the range of 88 degrees Fahrenheit (about 3.5 F hotter than average) and pumping up again into very strong Category 5 intensity with an 895 mb minimum central pressure off Florida by Sunday. This would be a stronger intensity than the 914 mb reached last night by measure of pressure alone.

(The GFS, ECMWF and other major models are starting to agree on a consensus track which has Irma raking the Florida coast before threatening Georgia and the Carolinas. Image source: The National Hurricane Center.)

GFS shows the storm raking most of the Florida coast as it bounces from one landfall or near landfall to another across the eastern seaboard before making a final landfall as a 924 mb monster along the Georgia-South Carolina border. Meanwhile, another major model — the Euro (ECMWF) — has the storm following approximately the same path at a lower intensity.

Though the GFS modeled intensity does not jibe with the official forecast — which calls for weakening of Irma to strong Cat 4 and then strong Cat 3 status — we should not completely rule out the GFS prediction due to those very warm ocean surfaces mentioned above. If predicted wind shear does not emerge, then it would allow Irma to more effectively tap those very warm waters off Florida and hit a second peak intensity. And if such a forecast were realized, it would produce a seriously catastrophic disaster for the U.S. East Coast.

(Models are starting to come into consensus on Irma’s track — which is zeroing in on it raking the Florida coast and then slamming into Georgia or South Carolina — but forecast intensity varies widely. GFS shows Irma off Florida at an intensity stronger than her present extreme strength by Sunday. Image source: Tropical Tidbits.)

Of course, the official forecast track and intensity — in which a strong Category 4 storm rakes coastal Florida and then tracks up into Georgia or South Carolina to make final landfall as a strong Cat 3 is bad enough. So in this case, we are looking a present forecast scenarios in which models are starting to come into consensus on track that range from bad (official Cat 4 and then Cat 3 intensity storm impacting Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas) to worse (GFS potential for a very strong cat 5 storm threatening the U.S. Southeast Coast).

(UPDATED — UPDATES TO FOLLOW)

STATEMENTS AND RELATED INFORMATION:

Links:

The National Hurricane Center

Earth Nullschool

Tropical Tidbits

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103 Comments

  1. Reblogged this on "OUR WORLD".

    Reply
  2. Nancy

     /  September 6, 2017

    I read that there are 15 or so construction cranes up right now in Miami, a city that is growing and building taller buildings, even with evidence that the city will be under water in a couple of decades (or sooner!). If Irma hits Miami, it will be a hot mess.

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 6, 2017

      ‘Avoid areas near construction cranes, Miami officials warn ahead of Irma
      Sep 6, 2017

      https://www.cbsnews.com/news/category-5-hurricane-irma-avoid-construction-cranes-miami/

      “…Tuesday evening city officials released a letter saying cranes in downtown Miami cannot withstand a Category 5 hurricane, CBS Miami reports.
      “These tower cranes are designed to withstand winds up to 145 miles per hour, not a Category 5 Hurricane,” the letter states.

      The city explained the crane’s arm has to remain loose and will not be tied down during a hurricane.
      Another potential threat is if, during a hurricane, the crane collapses.

      …The city is urging residents who don’t leave to at least ride out the hurricane in the interior portion of the building — preferably the concrete enclosed stairwell…

      As many remember from Superstorm Sandy in 2012, a crane high atop a New York City luxury building under construction was damaged and dangled precariously over the midtown area.

      Authorities received a call about the collapse in October 2012 as conditions worsened from Superstorm Sandy. Meteorologists said winds atop the 74-story building could have been close to 95 mph at the time.”

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 6, 2017

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 6, 2017

      ‘Miami’s Building Boom Shifts to Rentals After Condos Cool: Chart’
      January 3, 2017

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/miami-s-building-boom-shifts-to-rentals-after-condos-cool-chart

      “Miami’s developers are accelerating construction of rental apartment buildings downtown as demand for new condominiums weakens. The number of completed rentals will more than triple this year to 3,575 from an estimated 1,038 in 2016, the Miami Downtown Development Authority said in a report Tuesday. The condo market is cooling as a strong U.S. dollar spurs South American investors to sell their units, while rentals are attractive to a growing population of young workers who want to live downtown.”

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 6, 2017

      Reply
    • It’s still four days out. Lets hope the forecast track changes and that the GFS model intensity is not realized.

      Reply
  3. I noticed on the Null School wind map this morning that the hairpin jet stream at 250 mbs over the US has shifted somewhat to the east. I’ve read there is some chance this could steer the storm out to sea. Is that possible? Also, are the insane smoke plumes from the west coast wildfires dropping temperatures in a way that could have an effect on this storm that the models aren’t picking up?

    Reply
    • The models should pick that up. ECMWF predicted that the storm would shift out to sea earlier today. But now its track has shifted back toward the consensus. It’s still early. But the growing consensus is not a good sign. If this consensus holds, then it’s trouble.

      Reply
    • Smoke unlikely to have impact on the storm until it moves further north. But multiplication of cloud condensation nuclei might help to add to rainfall potentials if Irma rains out over the Appalachian chain as some models suggest.

      Reply
    • Bill H

       /  September 6, 2017

      There’s a blocking high (pressure) over the Atlantic to the East of the U.S., so that would seem to keep Irma in a course along the East coast.

      Reply
  4. eleggua

     /  September 6, 2017

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  5. eleggua

     /  September 6, 2017
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  6. eleggua

     /  September 6, 2017

    Coming up, four named storms off: Ophelia. Third time for a hurricane with that name, if she gets to that proportion. Previous two, in 2005 and 2011, weren’t major, so the name’s still in use; they’re recycled every three years unless major, then retired ala Katrina, Harvey, Irma. Seems like courting a Shakespearean tragedy, naming a hurricane after a suicide-by-drowning tragic figure.

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  7. Reply
  8. eleggua

     /  September 6, 2017

    Reply
  9. eleggua

     /  September 6, 2017

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 6, 2017

      From wikipedia.

      “”Pressure Drop” refers to the barometric pressure. This song predates modern weather forecasting, and at that time in the context of this song, island populations relied on the simple but reliable instrument (barometer) to predict adverse weather.
      The liquid barometer displays pressure as a measure of the fluid in a glass tube, and when the air pressure drops the fluid level “drops” accordingly.
      A rapid drop in air pressure indicates the severity of the approaching storm (hurricane), and is sometimes referred to as “the bottom dropping out”.
      Attention to pressure changes could spell the difference between life and death for an island dweller.
      “Pressure drop” is used as a clever poetic device in this song, and is the artists way of saying *a storm is coming for you*.”

      Reply
  10. eleggua

     /  September 6, 2017

    “Jean Mcmahon / September 6, 2017
    Someone on Cat 6 had a photo of the full moon as seen the thru eye of Irma”

    Jean, if you see this repost and can grab a link for ^^^ that image and drop it here, would be much appreciated. Thanx.

    Reply
    • John S

       /  September 7, 2017

      From the hurricane hunters flight…

      https://www.livescience.com/60324-eye-of-hurricane-irma-photos.html

      also on their twitter feed @53rdWRS

      JS

      Reply
    • I am trying..I thought it was Great!

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  September 7, 2017

        Thanks, Jean. John S found it and posted up above. If there’s another/s, please share if you find them.

        ” Two pilots and a navigator guide the aircraft — a WC-130J Super Hercules — which flies at an altitude of around 10,000 feet (3,048 meters), Staff Sergeant Heather Heiney, a public affairs specialist with the Air Force’s 403rd Wing, told Live Science. The 403rd Wing is the unit in the U.S. Department of Defense that organizes, oversees and performs all missions related to hurricane reconnaissance, according to the unit’s website.

        Meanwhile, the flight’s payload — a data-gathering device called a dropsonde — is deployed by a load master and an aerial reconnaissance weather officer, to collect meteorological data such as the storm’s air pressure and wind speed, Heiney explained.

        Only 12 aircraft in the world are capable of flying into thunderstorm environments to sample data, and 10 of those aircraft are in use by the Air Force’s Hurricane Hunters. Their flights typically last about 8 to 12 hours — depending on how far away the hurricane is — and once they reach the storm, the team will make several passes through the eye, Heiney said.

        Though the eye of a storm may appear calm, flying through a hurricane — particularly one as powerful as Irma — always comes with risks. Flights are frequently struck by lightning, which generally pass harmlessly through the aircraft, Heiney said. The biggest danger to the Hurricane Hunters when flying within a storm is from tornadoes, she added.

        “But they are all very well trained, so they know what to look for and what to avoid to stay safe throughout the flight,” Heiney told Live Science.”

        Reply
  11. Air quality over the northwest has been worsening day by day. Here is today’s from AirNow, just awful.
    https://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_state&stateid=28&mapcenter=0&tabs=0

    Reply
  12. eleggua

     /  September 6, 2017

    “The Keys and almost all of the Florida peninsula are now in the five-day forecast track error cone.”

    ‘Keys Visitor Evacuation in Progress; Resident Evacuation to Begin at 7 p.m. Wednesday’
    Updated Sept. 6, 2017 • 12:38 p.m.

    http://www.fla-keys.com/news/article/10129/

    “…Delta Airlines has announced three planned flights (7:05 a.m., 12:15 p.m. and 5:50 p.m.) to Atlanta from Key West International Airport Thursday. Delta and other carriers are providing service Wednesday. No other commercial carriers plan service Thursday. All commercial service is to be suspended by Thursday night and will remain suspended until after the storm. General aviation operations at Key West and Florida Keys Marathon International Airport are to remain effective until weather conditions deteriorate. Check airlines for departure times and space availability.

    Almost all rental car agencies in the Keys are without vehicles. Greyhound (greyhound.com) and Go Buses (gobuses.com) plan to continue service through Thursday. Greyhound also plans a bus Friday morning….

    A mandatory evacuation for Keys residents is to begin Wednesday at 7 p.m.
    Fuel supplies throughout the Keys are improving, according to Keys officials.

    According to the Key West National Weather Service, tropical storm-force conditions should begin to affect the Keys around midday Saturday.
    Dry Tortugas National Park and Everglades National Park have closed for the storm. Keys county and state parks have closed or are closing.

    The Keys and almost all of the Florida peninsula are now in the five-day forecast track error cone.”

    Reply
  13. eleggua

     /  September 6, 2017

    Comments from Tropical Tidbits latest post.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2017/09/06/wednesday-morning-update/#comment-828977
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    fishcamp says:
    September 6, 2017 at 08:03

    They now have mandatory evacuation for tourists today here in the Florida keys, and mandatory evacuation tonight for residents. They can’t make a person leave his home. The fire dept. will stop by tomorrow to make sure people that stay are prepared. I live in a large overbuilt cement house that is much safer than driving north. This thing is predicted to move up the entire state of Florida, so there’s nowhere to go. The latest spaghetti predictions (guesses) are showing this storm may shift slightly offshore and hit the keys with 26% force, which will still be bad since this thing is so huge. regards, fishcamp
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    wilt says:
    September 6, 2017 at 10:31

    Write your SS # somewhere on your body, i hope you survive
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

    Tropical Tim says:
    September 6, 2017 at 11:23

    complete devastation.
    Irma is the most classical definition of a caribbean hurricane that you can get.
    Barbuda all but entirely submerged.

    Reply
  14. eleggua

     /  September 6, 2017

    Alex in St. Maarten. Wishing him all the best in managing this physical crisis.

    http://alexwoolfall.com/

    “Alex has over 25 years’ experience in public relations and is a specialist in issues and crisis management.

    He has spent his career in London, where he has run the Issues & Crisis Management practices of three of the UK’s leading PR agencies: Hill & Knowlton, Bell Pottinger and Weber Shandwick.”

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 6, 2017

      Prescient, ironic title.

      ‘Alex Woolfall: Life Outside the Crisis Bubble’
      October 20, 2011

      http://www.prweek.com/article/1099498/alex-woolfall-life-outside-crisis-bubble

      “…’Being at the heart of the story, you know if what is written is true or not. Many of the media stories were speculative and made up,’ he says. ‘It made me realise that journalists are under enormous pressure to deliver a story, and one that is different to their competitors. It can drive things in a very unhealthy way.’…

      Another former colleague agrees: ‘You will never meet a nicer person to work with than Alex. He is kind, hard-working, determined and has a tremendous character.’…

      Woolfall has also not been able to switch off from every crisis.

      As well as the McCann story, he was upset greatly by a Home Office dawn raid on illegal immigrants working at a food production factory in the north of England. Staff were seen running off across fields and jumping fences, while the factory manager thought he would have to close the plant because he knew he would not be able to find replacements.

      ‘You get back on the train and walk into a posh PR agency but think “what have I just seen today?” I was very affected by it for some considerable time. It changes how you think politically because you realise there is a difference between reality and dinner-party conversations about illegal immigrants in Hampstead, where I live. You think “have you ever met any or seen where they work?”,’ he says.

      But this is also something that the self-confessed news junkie loves about his work – the fact it opens his eyes.

      ‘You see things you would not otherwise see and it gives you a more rounded view of the world. It stops you from sitting in a bubble in PR in London,’ he says.

      Meanwhile, Woolfall is looking forward to his fifth consecutive Christmas in the Australian sunshine – his ‘injection of serotonin’.

      He certainly deserves his break.?

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 7, 2017

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 7, 2017

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 7, 2017

      Reply
  15. wili

     /  September 6, 2017

    Reports from Barbuda:

    –One or two casualties so far (sources vary, still amazingly small number)
    — 95% of structures suffered some damage, some or all roofs, some totally destroyed.
    – 60% of residents are now homeless
    – Prime Minister says country will need outside assistance to rebuild, ”devastation is unlike anything I have ever seen, Barbuda is pretty much uninhabitable”
    – PM – “I felt like crying… one of the worst feelings I have ever felt in my entire life”
    – Also said that if Jose threatens the island, it will need to be fully evacuated; he expects it might be needed regardless

    Reply
  16. eleggua

     /  September 6, 2017

    Robert, saw you covered in the updated article above.

    ‘Irma, Jose, and Katia: 3 Hurricanes in the Atlantic’
    Posted 4:24 pm, September 6, 2017

    http://whnt.com/2017/09/06/irma-jose-and-katia-3-hurricanes-in-the-atlantic/

    “Tropical activity in the Atlantic is on the rise. We now have three hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Irma over the Caribbean, Katia in the Gulf of Mexico, and Jose farther out to sea….

    Katia: Katia is now a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico after strengthening quickly. Katia became a tropical depression Tuesday afternoon, then a tropical storm Wednesday morning, and now is a hurricane as of Wednesday afternoon.

    Katia is not expected to pose any kind of threat to the US. The storm will churn over the Bay of Campeche for the next couple of days before making landfall over Mexico.

    While Jose’s track looks similar to that of Irma’s, Jose will likely stay farther north. It is still too early to say if the storm will move over any of the Antilles Islands or if the storm could impact the US East Coast. We’ll keep a close eye on Jose as it continues to churn in the Atlantic.”

    Reply
  17. eleggua

     /  September 6, 2017

    Reply
  18. eleggua

     /  September 6, 2017

    Reply
  19. Greg

     /  September 6, 2017

    In person account from Barbuda on the ground:

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 7, 2017

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 7, 2017

      “…cars flying over our heads…the eye came just in time…”

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 7, 2017

      Venezula flying two military cargo planeloads of building materials to Barbuda.

      Residents “shacking up with each other”. 60% homeless, at least.

      King Goldilocks, 60, “almost 90% of the houses lose a roof…I’m homeless”.
      He’s the ‘Cultural Officer’ of Barbuda and a proponent of calypso music on the island.
      Looking forward to music from there in response to Irma. Calypso, soca and reggae: the music of the Caribbean.

      March 17, 2016
      “Cultural Officer in Barbuda, Vernon “Goldilocks” Griffith said he is hoping to revive the junior calypso competition ahead of Caribana 2016.

      Griffith said that he has focused his attention on getting school children involved in cultural events ever since he assumed the position of cultural officer in 2015.

      “It’s very important to keep up the artform; to develop the craft. I believe it’s better to start in the schools because after the senior calypsonians, some who have resigned or passed on, it’s the juniors who have to come up and take up the slack,” he said.

      Griffith told OBSERVER media that he also intends to launch an adoption initiative between junior and senior calypsonians as well as host musical classes for youngsters.

      According to the cultural officer, he has already contacted a number of calypsonians/songwriters in Antigua & Barbuda to include King Zachari, Richie Francis, Destroyer Senior and Lipstick to mentor the young Barbudan prospects.

      “The response that I got from the songwriters in Antigua was wonderful, all agreed to come on board to support the Caribana,” he said.

      Griffith has plans to further build the art form and turn it into a viable part of Barbuda’s tourist attraction.”

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 7, 2017

      Pretty amazing grace, though, only one dead there, a two-year child. Deathtoll could’ve been as bad as the property destruction; so far, three dead throughout the entire region so far affected. Barbuda planning to begin rebuild immediately. Maybe wait ’til after hurricane season is over this year.

      Reply
  20. Greg

     /  September 7, 2017

    This is now a day and a half as a major hurricane and still looks like this just north of San Juan Puerto Rico:

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 7, 2017

      “3D radar volume from San Juan, PR at 103 pm showing “stadium effect” in the eye of #Irma over the British Virgin Islands. Thanks @NWSRaleigh” – NWS Eastern Region

      Reply
  21. Greg

     /  September 7, 2017

    The latest Jeff Masters Post. Storm devastating storm surge warnings:
    If Irma makes a trek up the East Coast from Miami to southern South Carolina as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, as the models currently suggest, the portions of the coast that the eyewall touches will potentially see a massive and catastrophic storm surge, breaking all-time storm surge records and causing many billions of dollars in damage. Even areas up to a hundred miles to the north of where the center makes landfall could potentially see record storm surges. The area of most concern is the northern coast of Florida, the coast of Georgia, and the southern coast of South Carolina, due to the concave shape of the coast, which will act to funnel and concentrate the storm surge to ridiculous heights. If we look at wunderground’s storm surge maps for the U.S. East Coast, we see that in a worst-case Category 3 hurricane hitting at high tide, the storm tide (the combined effect of the storm surge and the tide) ranges from 17 – 20’ above ground along the northern coast of Florida, and 18 – 23 feet above ground along the Georgia coast. If Irma is a Cat 4, these numbers increase to 22 – 28 feet for the coast of Georgia. This is a Katrina-level storm surge, the kind that causes incredible destruction and mass casualties among those foolish enough to refuse to evacuate.
    https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-extreme-storm-surge-threat-us-and-bahamas

    Reply
  22. eleggua

     /  September 7, 2017

    Partial summary.

    Katia ramping up, “further strenghthening is anticipated”. On target for Veracruz.
    Jose could get close to Leewards.
    Seeing double ring with Irma; eyewall replacement uncertain but possible.
    Turks and Caicos, storm surges up to 20′. Get out of the area, make sure on highest ground possible; could impact as early as Thursday evening.
    “A direct impact to the United States unfortunately is likely”

    Levi warns at the end, do not put full stock in forecasts, spaghetti models when making decisions re: evacuation. “These plots do not tell you what’s going to happen. Pay attention to the National Hurricane Center forecast, your local weather office and your local emergency management in your county. They will tell you; they will know; it’s their job.
    Keep yourself safe. Don’t use stuff that can mislead you; use the official sources.
    Busy hurricane season; stay safe everyone.”

    Reply
  23. Artful Dodger

     /  September 7, 2017

    “87 C sea surface temperatures” … whoa, that’s some RPC8.5 Sh!Ts right up in there!

    Thanks for all you do, Robert. Keep scribbling!

    Reply
  24. eleggua

     /  September 7, 2017

    Key Largo, evacuation under way yesterday.

    Reply
  25. eleggua

     /  September 7, 2017

    ‘Maeslantkering
    This enormous storm barrier is one of the largest moving structures on Earth, with each arm taller than the Washington Monument. ‘
    Hoek van Holland, Netherlands

    http://www.atlasobscura.com/places/maeslantkering

    “One of the biggest moving structures in the world, the Maeslantkering is a storm surge barrier protecting the port city of Rotterdam.
    The huge machine consists of two large arms on each side of the waterway that can float into position and then be submerged.
    It’s the sheer size of the arms that makes Maeslantkering so impressive: Each is almost 800 feet long (more than 200 feet taller than the Washington Monument), and is connected to the mainland with the world’s largest ball joints, each more than 30 feet in diameter.”

    Reply
  26. eleggua

     /  September 7, 2017

    “Seth has some strong words for Hillary Clinton’s new book “What Happened,” which blames Bernie Sanders for paving the way for President Trump’s “Crooked Hillary” campaign.”

    Reply
  27. utoutback

     /  September 7, 2017

    Meanwhile in another corner of the country and little noted in the media:

    Most of the farmers in and around the Fort Peck Reservation agree that climate change is responsible for the sudden drought and ruined crops, but that doesn’t change the fact that farmers and others are now subject to the shifting political winds and strained debate around the issue.
    “This is unprecedented,” said Tanja Fransen of the National Weather Service in Glasgow, a larger city just up the road from Fort Peck. “This is as dry as it’s been in recorded history and some of our recording stations have 100 years of data. A lot of people try to compare this to previous years, but really, you just can’t.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/07/flash-drought-north-dakota-montana-wildfires

    Reply
  28. Abel Adamski

     /  September 7, 2017

    Slightly OT this subject, but just got a whats happening in this electorate flyer from my local state MP (politician), highlighting the State Labor Governments support for EV. Electric trucks with Government support, thyey want this state to be the Australian leader in EV manufacture

    Google search brings up this.
    https://www.google.com.au/search?q=SEA+Automotive&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b&gfe_rd=cr&dcr=0&ei=xz-xWc6uI6LM8gf7tLxY

    Already delivered first of 9 trucks in this order for a major trucking company, I have noted EV delivery Vans with Sea branding proudly signed as All Electric Vehicle without realizing Local builder

    They have several models on the road and also hold patents for their drive technology, their EV4, EV10, EV14. model;s are on the road and in select truck dealers. Numeric denotes tonnage.

    To coin a phrase the wheels are turning

    Reply
  29. Scott

     /  September 7, 2017

    I know 10 days is a very long time, and a 10 day out weather forecast is close to speculation, but they are getting better and better all the time.
    Here’s the 10 day ECMWF forecast for the US. That hurricane just off Miami – that’s not Irma…that’s Jose.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090700&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=302

    Reply
  30. Andy_in_SD

     /  September 7, 2017

    This is not some weird nightclub in Palm Beach, even though that is exactly what it looks like.
    Sheltering Flamingos from the hurricane.

    Reply
  31. Jimbot

     /  September 7, 2017

    Thanks fro another great report RS,

    At least the Caribbean islanders know how to “hunker down”.

    Meanwhile, out on the Left Coast: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-06/hurricanes-slam-south-shocking-images-show-western-us-literally-fire

    Reply
  32. bostonblorp

     /  September 7, 2017

    I never really thought of the frigid New England waters as an asset beyond their necessity to the ecosystem here. But with three and possibly four hurricanes to be spinning in the GoM and the Atlantic I now have a deep respect for their ability to sap hurricanes of their power. At least for now.

    Reply

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