Irma’s Projected Path Shifts West; Storm Expected to Restrengthen to Category 5

As of the 5 PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), dangerous Hurricane Irma was packing 155 mph maximum sustained winds and tracking just north of due west off the Cuba coast.

The new advisory provides a couple of surprises. One, Irma’s path has shifted more to the west. As a result, the West Coast of Florida and western South Florida is under more of a threat from Irma. That said, the NHC has not backed off its storm surge forecast of 5-10 feet for places like Miami. So, so far, that vulnerable city is not out of the woods — particularly for southern sections of the city.

(Official track shifts west for Irma as the Hurricane Center now predicts the storm will restrengthen to category 5 intensity over the Florida Straits after raking the coast of Cuba. Image source: The National Hurricane Center.)

This is likely due to the fact that Irma has a very large circulation with tropical storm force winds extending outward up to 160 miles from its center and hurricane force winds extending up to 60 miles from the storm’s center. So a west coast landfall in South Florida has the potential to still bring hurricane conditions to places like Miami. That said, if the track continues to shift west, Miami may dodge a bullet as our concerns shift to places like Fort Myers and possibly Tampa.

The NHC’s full statement on present storm surge potential is as follows:

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable…8 to 12 ft
Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key…5 to 10 ft
Venice to Captiva…5 to 8 ft
Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay…3 to 5 ft
Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line…3 to 6 ft

So basically all of South Florida from Cape Coral to Boca Raton is looking at a 5-12 foot storm surge according to the present NHC forecast. That includes Miami, Ft Lauderdale, the Keys, and the Fort Myers area.

(The NHC’s 5 PM storm surge inundation map shows the potential for significant flooding from South Miami to the Cape Coral area and on out to the Florida Keys. For reference, blue regions are expected to see more than one foot of water above ground, yellow more than three feet, orange more than six feet, and red more than nine feet.)

The second surprise in the recent official forecast is that the NHC now briefly expects Irma to regain category 5 status as it crosses the Florida Straits. Projected 36 hour intensity from NHC is for a storm packing 160 mph winds at that time. This increase in strength now jibes with a number of model forecasts that show Irma tapping much warmer than normal Gulf Stream waters just prior to striking Florida.

It’s worth noting that intensity forecasts are sometimes tough to nail down and the NHC is quick to caution that fluctuations in storm strength are likely. In any case, this is a very dangerous storm that bears watching.

(UPDATES TO FOLLOW)

 

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293 Comments

    • eleggua

       /  September 8, 2017

      ‘How A Monster Like Hurricane Irma Shakes The Animal Kingdom’
      Rich Everfail – September 8, 2017

      http://www.thealternativedaily.com/how-a-hurricane-shakes-the-animal-kingdom/

      “I was watching a flock of birds fly by my house this morning and thinking of all the wild animals caught in the way of Hurricane Irma, currently barreling down on nations in the Caribbean. What happens to animals during such a mammoth storm?

      I did a little digging and found that the impact of a hurricane affects creatures way before it does humans. The destruction starts deep in the sea and in the air before the storm even reaches land. And it doesn’t end when the storm passes either…..

      When Hurricane Andrew hit Louisiana, for example, officials estimated that more than nine million fish were killed offshore. During the same storm, experts estimated that 182 million fish were killed in the Everglades Basin.

      Coral reefs can also be destroyed.

      Sharks are the only creatures under the water that can sense the change in barometric pressure associated with the storm and depart from the area.

      ust like wildfires can create opportune conditions for species to colonize, hurricanes can open up new opportunities for some animals as well.

      Storms may strip foliage off and knock down trees but now these areas are more open to sunlight and new seeds can germinate. There is also evidence that hurricanes allow new species to colonize. In 1996, for example, 15 green iguanas floated on a tangled raft of trees from Guadeloupe to their new home on Anguilla, across the Caribbean Sea. Scientists say this is a way that species can be naturally introduced into new areas….”

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 10, 2017

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  September 10, 2017

        “We answer your Hurricane Irma questions live from the South Florida Sun Sentinel at 11:15 a.m. Sunday morning.”

        Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 10, 2017

      TropicalTidbits: “…core is several dozen miles wide…gusts over 60mph for over a day…
      inner core being disrupted again…will probably weaken for remainder of its lifetime…
      landfall very shortly…impact all of the Florida Peninula today, tonight and into Monday”

      “Michael Duke says:
      September 10, 2017 at 05:23
      Great report. More clear, concise, and comprehensive in 6 min than anyone does on TV in 3 hours.”

      “DaveinWeston says:
      September 10, 2017 at 05:45
      I live in Weston…the last community on I-75 in west-central Broward County as you head over to Naples traveling west. Currently (8:40 A.M. Sunday), we are experiencing sustained winds of about 40 with gusts to probably 55. A feeder-band imbedded tornado passed very close to our house yesterday afternoon as we had a flurry of TVS signatures throughout SE Florida over a 2-3 hour time period. Still have power (they buried the cables when they built this community in the mid 90’s).
      Thoughts and prayers to our neighbors up the west coast and central Florida and, of course, the Keys. I’m afraid the core of Irma could decimate the Key Deer population on Big Pine.”

      Reply
  1. eleggua

     /  September 8, 2017

    climatehawk1 – “Tweet scheduled”. Keeping him and DT in mind. (Looking forward to upcoming important comments from Colorado Bob asap.)

    ‘Tom Gray: The tributes continue pouring in’
    September 5, 2017

    http://www.aweablog.org/tom-gray-tributes-continue-pouring/

    “This is a guest post from Randy Swisher, AWEA’s Executive Director from 1989 to 2009.

    I’m still trying to wrap my head around Tom’s passing. It’s not easy. He was clearly the best writer I ever had the pleasure of working with, but that doesn’t begin to explain who he was as a person—one who gave so much of his life to AWEA.

    I could easily write a book regarding all the contributions that Tom made over the years, but these stand out:

    Tom took two key steps that began to establish AWEA and the wind industry’s strategic capability in Washington:

    With minimal resources, he effectively developed AWEA into the voice of the wind industry, raising the industry’s profile before federal policymakers and before key audiences such as utilities, environmentalists and the financial community.
    Tom established the AWEA Legislative Committee as a means of building industry consensus on policy issues. The Committee also became the vehicle for achieving stronger financial support for AWEA’s advocacy.

    Tom was also an early proponent of taking aggressive action to address the challenge of climate change. He helped present wind as a key to reducing carbon emissions. Even in retirement, he maintained his role as a leader in this field.

    He was a pioneer in electronic communications as well, establishing an email system for AWEA in the mid-80s, long before it became common practice.

    Clearly, Tom was a good strategic thinker, but it is important to keep in mind the context of the times, which makes his accomplishments even more extraordinary. The wind industry as we know it today did not exist. AWEA’s dues were minimal and the annual conference exhibition consisted of fewer than a dozen table-top exhibits. So there was virtually no budget for AWEA to work with. Wind technology was still in its infancy, and had the at least somewhat deserved reputation of being too expensive and marginal in its performance. But Tom (and others) shared a vision that wind could be a standard electric power technology. He held fast to that vision for almost forty years, long enough to see wind take dramatic steps toward achieving its potential.

    Tom was a wonderful colleague. We all knew we could count on him to graciously share his deep knowledge and to cheerfully carry an enormous load. He was as committed to shaping a better world as anyone I knew, and his impact was enormous.

    So long, Tom. Your commitment to wind – and your colleagues – was unsurpassed. You will be missed.

    Here are more tributes from Tom’s friends and colleagues…..”

    Reply
  2. Andy_in_SD

     /  September 9, 2017

    With three ferocious storms brewing in the Atlantic, today (Sept. 8) has earned a dubious honor: the worst hurricane day on record.

    At least that’s according to one measure, the accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration uses to capture just how much power tropical cyclones, and tropical cyclone seasons, pack. (Tropical cyclones refer to hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons, which are similar weather phenomena that occur in different oceans.)

    “It’s not official, but today will be the highest daily ACE that the Atlantic has recorded,” said Phil Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University.

    https://www.livescience.com/60357-worst-hurricane-day-on-record.html

    Reply
    • Andy_in_SD

       /  September 9, 2017

      This article leads me down a line of reasoning, that may or may not be correct. If anyone has better insight and can chime in, very much appreciated.

      The accumulated cyclone energy is a value representing the energy being drawn from the ocean and dispersed into the atmosphere. It is perhaps as though the ocean is vomiting up the heat it has been absorbing.

      These cyclones (hurricane / typhoon / cyclone) are spinning up to high energy values extremely fast now (category values we see in the news). They are larger, more powerful (Pacific & Atlantic). This may be a reaction due to the immense amount of heat energy stored in the oceans, which may be getting close to a point where it is easier to belch up energy than to absorb more. And perhaps, these events are then transferring this energy back into heat we get in the atmosphere. Would this then become a transfer mechanism to move heat (energy) to the atmosphere resulting in another contributor to atmospheric temp rises?

      Anyone have thoughts or better insights?

      Reply
      • Spike

         /  September 9, 2017

        My thoughts too – this sort of broad brush measure captures the true significance of what we are seeing, the impact of those gargantuan quantities of heat entering the deep on a daily basis and now stirring the system into its slow but remorseless response.

        It’s a shame the basic mechanisms involved often get lost in the detailed and sometimes egotistical wrangling over attribution. The public need a story that is as simple as is possible, truthful, and that resonates with their own understanding.

        Reply
  3. STUDY: ABC and NBC drop the ball on covering the impact of climate change on hurricanes..”Neither ABC nor NBC mentioned that climate change influences hurricanes like Harvey. From August 23 to September 7, none of the morning, nightly, or Sunday news shows on ABC or NBC featured a segment that discussed the link between climate change and hurricanes.”
    Research ››› 11 hours 28 min ago ››› KEVIN KALHOEFERpress:https://www.mediamatters.org/research/2017/09/08/STUDY-ABC-and-NBC-drop-the-ball-on-covering-the-impact-of-climate-change-on-hurricanes/217881

    Reply
  4. eleggua

     /  September 9, 2017

    ‘Eerie photos show Miami as a ghost town as Hurricane Irma approaches’
    September 8, 2017
    http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Miami-ghost-town-empty-Irma-Hurricane-evacuations-12183184.php

    “Eerie photographs taken Thursday and Friday show empty beaches and streets around the city of a half-million people.

    On Friday morning, Twitter users shared images of freeways without any cars and areas of Miami International Airport without a single person.”

    Reply
  5. Greg

     /  September 9, 2017

    My cousin, a veteran of a number of hurricanes, came to a wedding this weekend in Pennsylvania from her home in St. John and missed the storm. She heard on facebook that her house and next door neighbor’s in St.John is now gone, and now she will stay here Stateside for a while to figure things out. Irma, the stripper. See Barbuda before and after:

    Reply
    • Andy_in_SD

       /  September 9, 2017

      You can see the “plume” in the water from what is washed off the island very clearly, before & after.

      Reply
  6. Greg

     /  September 9, 2017

    And now Cuba as a CAT5, hitting the northern coast. Even Cubans can’t handle this one feeding off the warm waters.

    Reply
  7. Andy_in_SD

     /  September 9, 2017

    Now don’t I feel foolish!

    Here I thought that these hurricanes were the result of sea surface temperature, seasonal conditions, wind, wind shear and such dribble when in fact if we listen to some actor (kirk cameron) hurricanes are caused by god peen waving his immense power. There I go again, thinking logically and thinking about physics, thermodynamics and reading the science stuff from smart people.

    When all I needed to do to understand these things is listen to an actor all ginned up on religion.

    Reply
  8. Spike

     /  September 9, 2017

    Reply
  9. Greg

     /  September 9, 2017

    For a brief, but beautiful break from Hurricane watching. In 6 days we say goodbye in dramatic fashion to Cassini after more than a decade observing Jupiter. This is a stunning tribute to planetary science and nature:

    Reply
  10. Anne

     /  September 9, 2017

    A webcam at Jupiter, next to North Palm Beach, updates every 20 minutes or so. Eerie to see the place so deserted. http://www.evsjupiter.com/

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 12, 2017

      Sep 11, 2017 at 6:22 PM

      Doesn’t look bad; lifeguard shacks intact.
      Water coming out of the inlet is very dark, though.

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 12, 2017

      Today Tuesday, 12th of September of 2017…Jupiter Inlet (South Jetty)…
      the first high tide was at 1:22 am and the next high tide at 2:09 pm.
      The first low tide was at 7:18 am and the next low tide will be at 7:53 pm. ”

      Cam shot from just after high tide this afternoon; no dark material visible flowing out to sea.
      Sep 12, 2017 at 2:46 PM

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 12, 2017

      Jupiter weathered the storm fairly well.

      ‘Hurricane Irma: Jupiter customers welcome back waterfront camaraderie’
      Sept. 12, 2017

      http://www.palmbeachpost.com/weather/hurricanes/hurricane-irma-jupiter-customers-welcome-back-waterfront-camaraderie/vt1tkTNDvgcZQrIqONKiWN/

      “…several restaurants Tuesday opened after being shut down for the weekend by Hurricane Irma.
      “Out on the road, the gas is expensive. In here, the drinks and food are half-priced. This is the place to be,” said Jupiter resident Wade Gamache, 28, a cook who lives in Jupiter….

      “We had some minor damage to our palm trees, but nothing major,” said Chad Van Boven, owner of the (Guanabanas) restaurant….

      Pointing across the inlet to the brownish plants around the Jupiter Inlet Lighthouse, (Square Grouper restaurant) owner Jimmy Burg said nature wouldn’t take long to repair itself.

      “By Thanksgiving, it’ll all be green again. You won’t be able to tell anything happened,” said Burg….”

      Reply
  11. Jacque

     /  September 9, 2017

    OT – Truly creepy video on Twitter: melting permafrost, flowing like lava in #Tibet https://twitter.com/Lhatseri/status/906175294649753600

    Reply
  12. eleggua

     /  September 9, 2017

    Rick Scott, firm and sounding good. Urgency in Florida not being underestimated by authorities.

    “If for whatever reason, you need help…we’ll do everything possible to get you out.”

    Reply
  13. eleggua

     /  September 9, 2017

    ‘‘Trump betrays everyone’: The president has a long record as an unpredictable ally
    September 9, 2017

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-betrays-everyone-the-president-has-a-long-record-as-an-unpredictable-ally/2017/09/08/9cf64768-94a8-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html

    ” …a dishonest person behaving according to his long-established pattern.”

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 9, 2017

      Reply
    • Leland Palmer

       /  September 9, 2017

      Actually, his making a deal with the Democrats for Harvey reconstruction was good behavior. So, let’s see where it goes. If this is a crack in his climate change denial behavior, that’s great. Maybe he just wants to have a quiet conversation with reasonable people in touch with reality, as opposed to his own party.

      Perhaps he’s starting to add up the bill from climate change denial. One hundred eighty billion dollars is enough to put solar panels on 9 million homes, at $20,000 per home. This is a better deal than just repairing what has been destroyed by Harvey.

      Where is his party going to go, but to him? His approval rating is in the toilet, what does he have to lose?

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  September 10, 2017

        “So, let’s see where it goes.”

        Indeed. All of his moves so far have been ego-bound. If there’s positive benefit from any of his moves, of course the benefit is good. He’s still and likely always will be a self-serving liar, and his self-deception/self-delusion is toxically viral.

        Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 10, 2017

      Reply
  14. eleggua

     /  September 9, 2017

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 9, 2017

      HItting Cuba, weakening. However, it’s not a drastic weakening. Likely re-strengthening after Cuba.

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 9, 2017

      “Joseph says:
      September 9, 2017 at 08:20

      I want to touch on something, Irma is carrying with her debris from the Caribbean Islands she destroyed. I vividly remember debris that washed ashore with a 1998 hurricane that was not American items, old, and I mean old refrigerators, and other things from homes that the hurricane washed ashore. These things can damage, and destroyed what it would impact, when the tidal surge washes ashore.”

      “Joseph says:
      September 9, 2017 at 08:55

      A refrigerator being carried from the Caribbean in the tidal surge is a battering ram.”

      Reply
  15. Greg

     /  September 9, 2017

    Now this review regarding Hurricane Harvey. Try showing these numbers to a denier:

    Reply
    • Andy_in_SD

       /  September 9, 2017

      You are over estimating their ability for non objective reasoning. I gave up on those people ages ago, they are incapable of honest independent object determination. They just listen to the Rush Limbaughs and echo the conspiracies and thinly connected opinion drivel.

      Reply
      • Apneaman

         /  September 9, 2017

        Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds
        New discoveries about the human mind show the limitations of reason.

        https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds

        Of course the denier scum go way beyond this. They don’t care about any truth except their own regardless of the mounting consequences. These hardcore deniers are the true Nihilist and they will drag everyone else down with them including their own. They are reckless. Their beliefs stem from the same cognitive process as religion. They are zealots. Global suicide bombers.

        It’s not just the emission reduction stuff and eating less meat and protecting natural carbon sinks and all that stuff that was actually doable. One of the worst consequences of their denial has been leaving the populous almost completely unprepared and unprotected from these consequences. Can’t approve funding to protect people from the consequences of a hoax now can we?

        This is where I see a difference between guilt & responsibility. Humans are responsible to varying degrees, but the deniers are guilty. I tend to think if the billion dollar plus per year denial campaign has not poisoned the minds of the public and help create a volunteer army of true believer deniers who have put in countless hours spreading the lies and threats, then perhaps we would not be as far along as we are down the doom road.

        I’ll never know, nor will any of us because that option for a collective effort, even half assed, to see if we could at least slow down a little and change some things up was stolen from me and everyone else as a direct result of the big money denier campaign and the army of of diner warriors they created. Trust me, that was their plan. It worked and still is.

        I still say that most people, including the very aware ones (this place) do not understand who they are dealing with. The PTB behind this, their managerial class and army of true believers will drag the entire species down with them. Look at all the pain and destruction and blood they already have on their hands. Not phased one bit. They just want to ‘win’, damn the torpedoes.

        Some say that Joe six pack denier is not really responsible. Wrong. He’s an enabler and a spreader of lies and propaganda that is destroying people lives and even his own country. He knows no shame and runs his mouth with impunity, because no one really calls him on it.

        These people will never be moved by facts or science and playing nice with them is what they count on.

        I’ve never been any kind of advocate – organized like. I have been watching many environmentalist groups and concerned individuals for 30 some years because if you follow the science they are there too. Millions of man hours and sacrifice and money put into it. Y’all definitely have the courage of your convictions. Roberts efforts alone are incredible. Thing is, it’s not working. I say that by looking at aggregate numbers. Been going the wrong way from 1988 when I started to follow along.

        No offence, but y’all have been playing too nice. You’re all nice people, but you are in a war with a very determined and well funded foe and many of them are mean and ugly. I think it’s probably already too late to save civilization and not looking good for the species either, but I still do not want these type of people in charge. They are not going to admit to being wrong or any wrong doing. Power does not work that way nor do true believers. I don’t have any big picture answers, but I stopped playing nice some time ago. I call deniers on their BS online and in public. I’ve even ‘ruined’ a dinner party at my brothers. They are far too comfortable and need the consequences thrown in their face. I let them know that they have blood on their hands, because they do. I know most of you nice progressives don’t agree, but again, every other strategy has failed and that includes spending tons of money on university educated PR people and their fancy strategies. Perhaps they are in denial about their tactics?

        Reply
        • Greg

           /  September 9, 2017

          Alright then, print it out and offer as toilet paper.

        • eleggua

           /  September 10, 2017

          “I still say that most people, including the very aware ones (this place) do not understand who they are dealing with. ” “you’re all nice people” “you nice progressives”

          I don’t figure you intended insult but you are insulting our intelligence, and your entire comment comes off as more of a rant against your fellow commentors here than any sort of comment on the ‘other side’ of your war.

          “it’s not working. I say that by looking at aggregate numbers. Been going the wrong way from 1988 when I started to follow along.”

          Do you have anything constructive to contribute toward positive change? If so, please lead instead of follow.

          “you are in a war ”

          Sounds like you want someone to fight your war. I am not in any war. I know what “side” I’m on and don’t see any other human as ‘the other side’ of this planet.
          Take care, be well.

      • eleggua

         /  September 10, 2017

        “You are over estimating their ability for non objective reasoning.”

        To what are you referring? I don’t see anything in the info (above and at website) that Greg posted that warrants that assessment.

        Reply
  16. Greg

     /  September 9, 2017

    A CNN report out of Cuba. The seaside town of Caibarien, about 40,000 population, is underwater.

    Reply
  17. Greg

     /  September 9, 2017

    The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang is running a frequently updating All Things Irma site with no firewall:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/national/hurricane-irma-updates/

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 10, 2017

      Thanks for that link, Greg. Catching up after some hours away from updates; that page is a decent summary of current situation.

      “The storm has already ravaged parts of the Caribbean, where one official called it a “nuclear hurricane.” About 95 percent of the islands of Barbuda and St. Martin sustained some damage or were outright destroyed. ”

      “The center of the storm is expected to arrive in the Keys on Sunday morning about 8 a.m. By Sunday evening at 8 p.m., the storm will be close to Fort Myers.”

      “Hurricane Irma had max wind speeds of at least 180 mph for 37 hours, which is a new record for anywhere on Earth. Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) — which devastated the Philippines and killed more than 6,000 people in 2013 — was the previous record-holder at 24 hours. ”

      “Amid fears of price gouging, JetBlue offered $99 seats on flights from South Florida. One woman’s search for a flight out of Florida yielded a $3,200-dollar one-way fare on Expedia. Delta helped her find a cheaper flight, but Expedia can’t explain why it was selling such expensive tickets. “

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 10, 2017

      11:33 AM EST

      The center of the storm made landfall at Cudjoe Key, just east of Key West, at 9:10 a.m. The storm was crawling to the north-northwest at just 8 mph.

      • The Category 4 storm, which regained strength as it traversed the warm water of the Straits of Florida, will move up the state’s Gulf Coast later today and move inland by Monday afternoon.

      • All of Florida’s Gulf Coast is at risk. We don’t know exactly if and where the eye of the storm will come ashore, but impacts will be severe in this region no matter what.

      • More than 1 million customers are without power in the state of Florida. Power outages could exceed 2 million across the Southeast as Hurricane Irma moves north.

      • The storm’s winds are near 130 mph and hurricane-force winds extend up to 80 miles from its center, the Hurricane Center says.

      Reply
  18. Andy_in_SD

     /  September 9, 2017

    Looks like this will peter out based on current projections in the Mississippi watershed. Tennessee look like it may get rain out of this at the end as well.

    Reply
  19. Apneaman

     /  September 9, 2017

    The most extreme damage from Hurricane Irma may come from huge surges of water pushed onto land by wind

    http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2017/09/09/most-extreme-damage-from-irma-may-come-from-storm-surge/

    Reply
  20. Greg

     /  September 9, 2017

    Tampa is the big vulnerability. When these guys come down your street time to evacuate.

    Reply
  21. wharf rat

     /  September 10, 2017

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 10, 2017

      ^ The answer is “No.”

      “This is a result of either low tide and or the spin from around #Irma This happens in bays and inlets a lot during storms of this size.”

      ‘It happens where I live a lot. Our bay will empty out or mostly out. It depends on the storm and the direction of the wind. Amazing sight.”

      “As soon as the wind switches around it will slowly come back but not like a tsunami”

      “Not due to a tsunami…it’s due to Irma’s low pressure pulling water away as well as the storm’s winds. The water will return slowly.”

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 10, 2017

      Whenever one sees a graphic headline using that sort of text and punction, it’s likely to be alarmist nonsense and not of much good use.

      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bahamas-water-receded-hurricane-irma_us_59b49f1de4b0dfaafcf84e86

      “Angela Fritz, The Washington Post’s deputy weather editor, confirmed this phenomenon is real and may occur during extremely powerful hurricanes such as Irma. The storm is so powerful, it can essentially change the shape of the ocean, Fritz said.

      “Basically, Hurricane Irma is so strong and its pressure is so low, it’s sucking water from its surroundings into the core of the storm,” Fritz wrote.”

      Reply
  22. cushngtree

     /  September 10, 2017

    The fellow in the concrete stairwell on St Martin has made it out

    Reply
  23. Andy_in_SD

     /  September 10, 2017
    Reply
  24. Andy_in_SD

     /  September 10, 2017

    Hurricane Irma is literally sucking the water away from shorelines

    “I am in disbelief right now…” she wrote. “This is Long Island, Bahamas and the ocean water is missing!!!”

    Basically, Hurricane Irma is so strong and its pressure is so low, it’s sucking water from its surroundings into the core of the storm.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-is-literally-sucking-the-water-away-from-shorelines/?utm_term=.792d2385a5be

    Reply
  25. eleggua

     /  September 10, 2017

    ‘Cheetahs, dolphins and flamingos brace for Irma’s wrath’
    Sep 9, 2017

    http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/irma-nears-florida-concern-animals-major-issue-49727421

    “We’re as ready as we can be,” Zoo Miami spokesman Ron Magill said …”

    Ron Magill took the famous photo of the pink flamingos sheltering in the zoo bathroom during hurricane Andrew in ’92.

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 10, 2017

      Pink flamingos and roseate spoonbills sheltering at the zoo, 2017.

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 12, 2017

      ‘Volunteers trying to ‘save’ baby turtles, but their tactics were all wrong’
      Sept. 11, 2017 |

      http://www.tcpalm.com/story/weather/2017/09/11/volunteers-trying-save-baby-turtles-but-their-tactics-were-all-wrong/653443001/

      “…The volunteers scooped up hatchlings that had been moved by Hurricane Irma’s storm surge into grass on the beach’s upper dune, loaded them into buckets and walked them to the nearby Indian River Lagoon for release.

      “If the hatchlings were in serious danger, they should have put them back in the ocean,” said Mark Perry, executive director of the Florida Oceanographic Society on Hutchinson Island in Stuart.

      If the turtles aren’t in immediate danger, they should be left alone. That’s all according to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Perry said.

      “I get that these people were doing what they thought was best for the turtles,” Perry said, “but it’s not what FWC says to do, and they’re the one in charge.”…”

      Reply
  26. eleggua

     /  September 10, 2017

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 10, 2017

      ‘Is there life beneath the ice? Antarctica’s mysterious caves’
      10 Sep, 2017

      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11919575

      “… Most of the DNA found in the caves on Mt Erebus was similar to DNA from plants and animals – including mosses, algae and invertebrates – found elsewhere in Antarctica, but not all sequences could be fully identified.

      “The results from this study give us a tantalising glimpse of what might live beneath the ice in Antarctica – there might even be new species of animals and plants,” Fraser said.

      Another scientist involved in the project, Professor Laurie Connell from the University of Maine, said these intriguing DNA traces did not conclusively prove plants and animals were still living in the caves.

      “The next steps will be to take a closer look at the caves and search for living organisms,” Connell said.

      “If they exist, it opens the door to an exciting new world.”

      Microbial ecologist Professor Craig Cary, director of the Waikato University-based International Centre for Terrestrial Antarctic Research, said previous research had found that diverse bacterial and fungal communities lived in Antarctica’s volcanic caves.

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 10, 2017

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  September 10, 2017

        ^^^

        “Here, microbiologist Craig Cary peers underneath the blue dome of an ice cave, where he will take a soil sample to check for microbes. Although the volcanic soils themselves are hot – they can reach temperatures of 65C – the air just above is not. Move a couple of metres away from the hot spot, and the soil temperature drops sharply. These caves lie close to the surface, with only thin ice separating them from the outside world. Anyone walking outside the cave must take care or risk falling through. (Carsten Peter/National Geographic Stock)”

        Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 10, 2017

      ‘Antarctica’s volcanic ice caves’
      15 February 2013

      http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20130211-antarcticas-volcanic-ice-caves

      “Mount Erebus is the most southerly active volcano on the planet. It began to form about 1.3 million years ago and today stands 3,794m above sea level. Its slopes are covered with snow and ice, glaciers, crevasses and the occasional lava flow, but steam usually rises from its summit, betraying the intense heat within. If Erebus were a dessert, it would be a reverse Baked Alaska – frozen on the outside and hot in the middle.

      The volcano, including the frequency of its eruptions, the types of gases it gives off, and the age of its rocks, is well studied. But the thousands of microscopic organisms that live in the hot soils inside the caves near Erebus’ summit make up one of the planet’s least known ecosystems. It could also be one of the largest – some estimates suggest that one-third of all bacteria on the planet might live there – and weirdest. These microbes do not survive by drawing energy from the sun. Instead, they get energy from other sources, such as iron or hydrogen. “

      Reply
  27. eleggua

     /  September 10, 2017

    ‘Climate change could wipe out a third of parasite species, study finds ‘
    6 September 2017

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/06/climate-change-could-wipe-out-a-third-of-parasite-species-study-finds

    “…Tapeworms, roundworms, ticks, lice and fleas are feared for the diseases they cause or carry, but scientists warn that they also play a vital role in ecosystems. Major extinctions among parasites could lead to unpredictable invasions of surviving parasites into new areas, affecting wildlife and humans and making a “significant contribution” to the sixth mass extinction already under way on Earth.

    “It is a staggering number,” said Colin Carlson at the University of California, Berkeley, who led the new work. “Parasites seem like one of the most threatened groups on Earth.”

    …“If parasites go extinct, we are looking at a potential massive destabilisation of ecosystems [which] could have huge unexpected consequences,” Carlson said, with other parasites moving in to take advantage. “That doesn’t necessarily work out well for anyone, wildlife or humans.” …”

    Reply
  28. wharf rat

     /  September 10, 2017

    IRMA NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS…
    2:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 10
    Location: 23.7°N 81.3°W
    Moving: NW at 6 mph
    Min pressure: 931 mb
    Max sustained: 130 mph
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Irma

    Reply
  29. eleggua

     /  September 10, 2017

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 10, 2017

      The collapse begins at the 10sec. mark. ^^^ It’s in the distance, on the right.

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 10, 2017

      ‘Construction cranes collapse in downtown Miami’
      Updated: 2:47 PM, September 10, 2017

      https://www.local10.com/weather/hurricane-irma/construction-crane-collapses-in-downtown-miami

      “Two construction cranes have collapsed as Hurricane Irma blasted South Florida with hurricane-force winds….

      The cranes were thought to be able to withstand the direct hit of a Category 4 hurricane, however, Irma’s winds in Miami are just at the Category 1 level. “

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 10, 2017

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 11, 2017

      Turns out, developers in Florida prevented legislation that would’ve required more secure cranes.

      ‘Three cranes at South Florida construction sites have snapped in Irma’s howling winds’
      September 10, 2017

      http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172416297.html

      “The first to go was a crane at an apartment building in downtown Miami around 10:30 a.m. Sunday.

      Hours later, the winds brought down a second crane at a condo tower in Miami’s Edgewater neighborhood, roughly two miles north. A video posted on Twitter showed its boom dangling above the unfinished tower. Then, later in the afternoon, the flailing arm of a crane at an oceanfront Fort Lauderdale condo brought the number of accidents to three. Perhaps reflecting the size of its portfolio, the firm behind the Edgewater and Fort Lauderdale projects is the region’s biggest developer, the Related Group…..

      All three arms stayed attached to the upright towers of their cranes, meaning they did not fall down to the street…..

      The arms of construction cranes are designed to spin around like weather vanes in heavy winds. They can generally sustain winds of up to 145 miles per hour. Miami International Airport reported sustained winds of nearly 50 miles an hour and gusts above 70 mph at 9 a.m. Sunday. The city instructed the developers to remove the cranes and secure the sites after the hurricane passes…..

      Ten years ago, building interests fought Miami-Dade County’s effort to impose a requirement that cranes be able to sustain 140 mph winds. The ordinance passed in 2008, during downtown’s first high-rise boom, but was tossed out on a legal challenge.

      “The crane industry opposed it,” said Audrey Edmonson, a Miami-Dade County commissioner whose district includes large areas of downtown Miami.

      Edmonson sponsored the crane ordinance, only to see it defeated in court.

      The industry coalition that sued to block the law included South Florida’s chapter of the Associated General Contractors of America and the Florida Crane Owners Council. ….

      Eddie Gonzalez, an assistant county attorney who helped on the case, described the legislation as a storm-safety measure.

      “It was to secure the cranes,” he said. “We fought it in court. Unfortunately, we didn’t win.””

      Reply
  30. eleggua

     /  September 10, 2017

    “”At the siren, all emergency services will be suspended for 12 hours. Your government thanks you for your participation.””

    Reply
  31. eleggua

     /  September 10, 2017

    Reply
  32. Andy_in_SD

     /  September 10, 2017

    There is a new disturbance behind Jose off the coast of Africa now if you look at NOAA

    Reply
  33. Andy_in_SD

     /  September 10, 2017

    China looks at plans to ban petrol and diesel cars

    China, the world’s biggest car market, plans to ban the production and sale of diesel and petrol cars and vans.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41218243

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 10, 2017

      Great.

      “The proposals would require 8% of automakers’ sales to be battery electric or plug-in hybrids by next year, rising to 12% in 2020.”

      Reply
  34. Andy_in_SD

     /  September 10, 2017

    Rain Bomb in Italy

    At least six people have been killed after heavy rainstorms and flooding in the Italian city of Livorno.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41219772

    Reply
  35. Andy_in_SD

     /  September 10, 2017

    This is how it should work….

    The USA and Canada have multiple strong cross border assistance agreements and systems in place. These have proven invaluable for both countries. When either country is overwhelmed, and the other has idle resources that can help they are coordinated and sent over. The fire fighting agencies are very well integrated, and they can send everything from personnel, fire hoses up to aircraft.

    Not often reported are the power utilities. In the great ice storm of 1977, the US Corp of engineers were on hand to recover the electrical grid in Quebec. Invaluable assistance that saved lives.

    When hurricanes hit, Canada sends down power line crews to expedite restoring / rebuilding the electrical system.

    These efforts are apolitical (don’t care about politics) and are in place to take care of people and one another.

    http://globalnews.ca/news/3725262/nb-crews-florida-hurricane-irma/

    Reply
  36. wili

     /  September 10, 2017

    CNN just reported that the track may now go a bit inland from Naples.

    Reply
  37. eleggua

     /  September 10, 2017

    Reply
  38. eleggua

     /  September 10, 2017

    Headline today:

    “John McCain: North Korea must know price for aggression is ‘extinction'”

    ought to read

    “John McCain must know price for aggression is ‘extinction'”

    Reply
  39. Apneaman

     /  September 10, 2017

    Climate change denial should be a crime

    In the wake of Harvey, it’s time to treat science denial as gross negligence—and hold those who do the denying accountable.

    “In August 2016, months after Houston had been hit by the second of two back-to-back “hundred year floods,” Mike Talbott, then the head of Houston’s flood control district, told The Texas Tribune and ProPublica that he still had no plans to study climate change or its potential impacts on the county — Harris, the third-largest in the nation — that he was charged with protecting. Talbott criticized scientists for being “anti-development,” and not only ignored but denigrated studies — even those conducted by his own department, one of which he called “absurd” — that suggested development was worsening flooding, or that urged him to leave prairies intact to absorb floodwaters. When the Tribune told Talbott that a host of scientific experts had said the contrary, his reply was blunt.

    “You need to find some better experts,” he said. When asked for names, the Tribune reported, Talbott would only say, “starting here, with me.”

    “Scientists knew a disaster like Harvey was coming. Those in power who refused to listen — who refused to use the best available data to do their jobs of protecting their constituents from disaster — should be held accountable. Mike Talbott’s department could have acted on sound evidence and saved lives. They did not. They repeatedly favored development over public safety, going so far as to allow 7,000 homes to be built in low-lying, flood-vulnerable areas since 2010. It is impossible to determine how many have died as a result of any official’s refusal to appropriately prepare the city for disaster, but there is little doubt some of the blame for the scale of this calamity is theirs. The Washington Post generously calls it “ignorance.” But it’s high time to start taking this pointed refusal to prepare, this refusal to observe the basic tenets of science seriously — and call it what it is: Negligence. Criminal negligence, even.

    Climate change denial can and will leave people dead.”

    https://theoutline.com/post/2202/climate-change-denial-should-be-a-crime

    “Climate change denial can and will leave people dead.” Can? Already has destroyed peoples homes, businesses, towns and entire countries are next. It won’t be Hollywood glamours. It’ll break the national bank as it is breaking individuals.

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 11, 2017

      Good, long piece. The Outline is a new-ish newssite; younger, engergetic staff. Unconflicted by outside interests. Founded and run by from the guy who started The Verge, Josh Topolsky. He worked for Bloomberg until personally fired by Mike Bloomberg. That’s a good sign, given the reason for his dismissal; he spoke his mind. In a meeting, Bloomberg suggested that maybe they didn’t need a website.

      “Joshua Topolsky, the founder of a prominent technology website who had been hired to oversee a glossy reintroduction of Bloomberg’s web properties, responded sarcastically, making fun of the suggestion, according to three people with knowledge of the exchange, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

      Mr. Bloomberg, who often challenges subordinates with provocative questions, has grown accustomed to deference, the people said. He was furious, and his relationship with Mr. Topolsky subsequently deteriorated to the point that both decided it was better if Mr. Topolsky left.”

      Reply
  40. Kassy

     /  September 10, 2017

    Lets say we go really moderate on this and we just require to look at a time scale including our kids and grandkids in a boring risk assesment way. The one thing i can’t figure out is why the denialist crowd can’t do that. Physics really does not care about rhetorics. Erase any mention of GW in reports but it still happens and your kids and grandkids will live it. And you are supposed to love them and then you would want to protect them even though it gets harder through time?

    Reply
  41. wili

     /  September 11, 2017

    Now headed toward Orlando, reportedly, where my (perhaps) future son-in-law evacuated to from Naples!

    Reply
  42. eleggua

     /  September 11, 2017

    Reply
  43. eleggua

     /  September 11, 2017

    Hurricane Irma footage compilation of impacts in South Florida (Keys and Miami area).

    Reply
  44. Leland Palmer

     /  September 11, 2017

    So far, the extreme storm surges predicted have not materialized. While still a major storm, Irma has degraded to a Class 2 hurricane, last I heard on MSNBC and the Weather Channel.

    So, that’s good, and I’m grateful for our good luck.

    What really seemed to save us from much more serious effects, though, was what appeared to be a purely random interaction between Irma and the mountains of Cuba, reducing Irma to a Category 3 hurricane. If the path of Irma had been just a few miles north, the story in Florida could have been much, much worse, it seems.

    The lesson I think I learned from all of this is that the factors that will likely continue to make hurricanes worse, like high sea surface temperatures, will only get worse as global warming continues. Along with high sea surface temperatures, the increasing depth of the hot seawater layer, the cooling stratosphere, and the higher water vapor content of the atmosphere will only get worse. The stalling behavior of Harvey may also be an emergent property of our destabilizing climate system.

    Random factors that might save us would likely remain the same, although more chaos in the atmosphere might lead to more random behavior, for all I know. But these random factors could just as easily make impacts worse on humans and their property than make impacts better.

    So, we lucked out with Irma, I think.

    But we certainly can’t count on a lucky (for us) interaction with the mountains of Cuba to save us from the effects of global warming every time we get another hurricane.

    The kinetic energy of wind increases at the cube of the wind speed. Damages apparently scale at the cube of the wind speed – or greater. So doubling the wind speed increases kinetic energy about 8 times, and wind damages appear to increase at even higher rates. Storm surges and storm surge damages likely have similar scaling laws, I think.

    https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp16199.pdf

    Gone with the Wind: Estimating Hurricane and Climate Change Costs in the Caribbean

    Reply
  45. wharf rat

     /  September 11, 2017

    Irma brings record flooding to Jacksonville, FL which sits on the immense St John’s River.
    Storm surge breaks record set in 1964 by Hurricane Dora
    http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=jax&gage=msbf1

    Reply
  46. wharf rat

     /  September 11, 2017

    Hurricane Jose path map: Shocking map shows Jose loop de loop heading direct for FLORIDA
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/852707/Hurricane-Jose-path-update-map-loop-Florida-Caribbean-USA-National-Hurricane-Center-NHC

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 12, 2017

      “The NHC has forecast ‘steady weakening’ over the next 48 hours but there is ‘potential for reintensification’ in four to five days.

      After Hurricane Jose has completed the loop the loop, there is a huge amount of uncertainty over where the hurricane could go next.

      The NHC storm track shows that Hurricane Jose could start heading towards Florida and the Bahamas by 2am on Saturday.

      In the worst case scenarios, Jose could turn southward toward the Bahamas or northward towards the East Coast of the US.

      WTTG FOX 5 Meteorologist Mike Thomas said: “Both Irma and Jose weakened this morning, but Jose still a hurricane. Most models don’t impact United States, but we’ll keep an eye on it.” ”

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 12, 2017

      Reply
    • Anne

       /  September 12, 2017

      Is this a joke? No one takes the Express seriously, particularly not on issues of climate or weather. Jeff Masters has a more measured take on the possible outcomes for Jose, which are as yet unpredictable – but none of which threaten Florida. New England at an outside stretch, but not Florida.
      https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/jose-potential-east-coast-threat

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  September 12, 2017

        The text in that Express piece belies grave concerns re: Florida.
        The spaghetti map directly above shows most strands heading north after the loop and not impacting land except for a very few, and none impacting Florida. That map is found on that same Express article.

        Guardian is the best, b.s.-less source for news in the UK, and it has excellent coverage of climate change issues.

        Reply
        • Anne

           /  September 12, 2017

          Thanks, eleggua. I agree re The Guardian. One of the better – not infallible – sources of information.
          I should have made it clear I was responding to wharf rat’s comment about Jose’s path, referencing the Express. Perhaps he was being satirical, in which case it whooshed over my head. I confess I’m a bit allergic to people making light of this serious situation.

        • eleggua

           /  September 12, 2017

          You’re welcome. Guardian’s one of my regular stops, however the only way to get some decent view of what’s up is via collaging many reliable sources.

          wharf rat’s fully on the team. Certain he’s not making light nor trying to be unhelpfully alarming. That was just a ‘cut and paste’ of the actual (alarming) headline on that mostly non-alarmist piece. Express is tabloid junk, maybe only a slight notch above the Daily Mail and the Sun. None of them even worth wrapping up your fish-and-chips much less reading. You’re aware of all that, I figure; most folks in the US aren’t hip to it, though.

  47. Apneaman

     /  September 11, 2017

    Irma Won’t “Wake Up” Climate Change-Denying Republicans. Their Whole Ideology Is on the Line.

    https://theintercept.com/2017/09/11/irma-donald-trump-tax-cuts-climate-change-republican-ideology-capitalism/

    Their Ideology is their life and they will fight, to the death, and drag everyone down with them, to protect it. There is no known upper limit on denial. I’m a hard core history buff and the literature is full of examples of reckless abandon when it comes to beliefs.

    I think Terror Management provide many satisfying answers to why this is.

    The time for proper “framing” and warm N fuzzy high dollar progressive NGO and think tank strategists is over. It’s failed and many of the management are corrupt. Why do you think COP 21 et al are sponsored by these big corps including big oil? Gate keeper fees.

    There is plenty that has not been done. How come there is no effort to expose the people that work for these denier PR & think tank outfits? I’m not talking death threats like deniers do, but exposing them – names, title and how they are accessories to climate carnage that will soon break the US economy through never ending and very expensive disaster rescuing and infrastructure shit kicking. The US infrastructure is already a joke. D+ for 8 years running because of “deferred” maintenance. Ya deferred to the next and next generation. A dysfunctional infrastructure gets you a dysfunctional economy and country.

    If y’all was just half as mean and dirty as the deniers then you might get somewhere. Of course that way of fighting is not fitting with progressive ‘beliefs’. Sigh.

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 12, 2017

      “If y’all was just half as mean and dirty as the deniers then you might get somewhere. Of course that way of fighting is not fitting with progressive ‘beliefs’. Sigh.”

      Ridiculous. Don’t become what you oppose. And don’t insult your teammates.

      Reply
      • Apneaman

         /  September 12, 2017

        The fate of the human species is on the line and your biggest concern is political correctness? If you are that sensitive to any criticism, then you don’t stand a chance. The denier gang, from top to bottom, want to put a boot on your face and leave it there. Your response proves my point. Good fucking luck with dealing with AGW as another warm N fuzzy ‘social justice’ issue – they love it. I go where the deniers are and get in their faces. I tell them their loved ones will suffer and that the young ones lives will be miserable and short. I tell that to people in the real world too. Like you they don’t like it. It may or may not have an impact, but at least when the consequences get me I will die with a clearer conscious knowing I did more than just swap links with like minded people and go to a few marches that have zero effect. TPTB will be perfectly happy to let you have your orderly marches until it’s all unravelled. It’s part of their gate keeper strategy. Let them blow off a little steam, feel good and keep the hope alive while the aggregate numbers climb year after year after year. Hope is not a solution. Hope is not an action word.

        BTW, I’m not on team liberal U.S.A. Where I live no one identifies themselves by a political party. I have never heard a Canadian say I’m a ‘NDP’ or I’m a ‘Progressive Conservative’ (oxymoronic eh?). I know of no English speaking country as politically insane and divided (intentionally) as the US. I married a lovely American woman and lived and worked in the US for almost a decade, so it’s not just another internet only analysis.

        I don’t want to see people suffer needlessly, which is what we have in common, and until such time as the world wakes the fuck up, people will and it will get worse. I’m not playing nice for that because of social conventions.

        Reply
        • eleggua

           /  September 12, 2017

          Your anger is boring and not of any use to me. Please continue to post great links, though; those are very worthwhille.

    • eleggua

       /  September 12, 2017

      “There is plenty that has not been done.”

      Well, then, get to it! Show us “y’all” how it’s done.

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 12, 2017

      http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/interrogation/2017/03/van_jones_on_trump_liberal_resistance_and_what_corey_lewandowski_is_really.html

      “I mean, you can fight very, very, very hard, I don’t know, like Dr. King did, like Nelson Mandela did, people who fought and gave up their lives and their liberty for these causes but still somehow managed to convey a level of grace and a level of empathy, even for their opponents.” – Van Jones

      Reply
  48. eleggua

     /  September 12, 2017

    “NASA’s Operational Land Imager captured pictures from space of some of the islands in the Caribbean hit hardest by Irma. The photos show the Virgin Islands turned brown by Irma’s winds and rains.”

    Reply
    • Greg

       /  September 12, 2017

      My cousin lost everything on those islands and is now staying with family stateside. The singer Kenny Chesney is bringing some attention to St. John. This is what it looks like on the ground.

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  September 12, 2017

        Image not loading here and the website is unsecure.

        “The website tried to negotiate an inadequate level of security.

        10ztalk.com uses security technology that is outdated and vulnerable to attack. An attacker could easily reveal information which you thought to be safe. The website administrator will need to fix the server first before you can visit the site.

        Error code: NS_ERROR_NET_INADEQUATE_SECURITY”

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  September 12, 2017

        Sorry to hear it, Greg. All the best to your cousin. Glad he has folks to stay with while figuring out things.

        ‘MESSAGE FROM KENNY: HURRICANE IRMA’

        “…I don’t know what to say. I’ve never been in war, but the devastation, the people’s faces in a place I know by heart have left me feeling helpless. It’s total devastation.

        These are people who live off the sea, who depend on it. They live right there, and it’s gone. Most everyone’s displaced. They are frightened, confused, and they don’t know where help is going to come from. Those lives have changed and will never be the same. Those small islands are hard to get to and they rely on each other to get through what life hands them. For all of them, though, they’ve been where I’ve leaned for emotional and creative support for fifteen years because they are so generous.

        I don’t know right now how we’re going to do this. But I want to help. I want to enlist my friends to figure out the best ways to make a difference, to help in whatever ways, small or larger, that we can. I’m blessed with so many great people… We’re already talking, trying to figure out how to get in there. And I know the No Shoes Nation is mighty. They’ve dug in before and made a difference. I have a feeling once we have our plans in the place, they’ll be there again.

        Give us a few days to figure this out. Pray/send good thoughts to everyone who’s been affected or is in the path of Hurricane Irma. This is unlike anything they’ve ever seen from St Maartens to St Barths to Puerto Rico then the Caribbean and onto Key West.

        Be safe. Tell someone how much you care. Remember to Spread the Love.
        More soon,
        Kenny

        UPDATE: We’ve created a way for you to donate to the official Love for Love City Foundation. You can support online via PayPal, by mailing a check, by making cash contributions via Wire or ACH transfer or by contributing Marketable Securities. Details for all of those options are below.”

        https://kennychesney.com/news/448917/hurricaneirmamessage

        Reply
        • Jeremy in Wales

           /  September 12, 2017

          I am going to try to be careful in how I post this comment, as I do not like seeing people being put in danger or losing all their possessions but there is something ironic in this climate change turbo-charged storm hitting the British Virgin Islands (BVI). This overseas British territory is a major centre for offshore banking that facilitates international tax avoidance and evasion for the 1%, more than 1,000,000 companies are incorporated in the BVI which only has a population of 28,000 (the vast majority of whom have nothing to do with banking). Banking is centred here because of the secrecy of the system, no open public register, so it is difficult to pin down who owns assets. While not producing the pollution contaminating the planet this jurisdiction facilitates and encourages the system doing that polluting and undermines state finances that could help counter (research) and help people cope with the changes required.

          I have this picture of thousands of pieces of paper with “top secret” on the top flying through the air from shattered banks.

          https://www.ft.com/content/35183356-9609-11e7-b83c-9588e51488a0

          Despite this being one of the main conduits of finance being recycled back to the City of London the British Government has been incredibly slow off the mark in helping the islands despite the advance warning everybody else was aware of. The French had troops and supplies ready and waiting.

          https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/12/hurricane-irma-british-aid-derisory-caribbean-tax-havens

        • eleggua

           /  September 13, 2017

          Thanks for bringing that Guardian article to attention here. (The other link’s not viewable; behind a paywall.) Excellent points made there and at the blogsite linked at the bottom of the Guardian piece.

          ‘Hurricane Irma: The victims are the priority, but financial secrecy must not be ignored’
          Written by Robert Barrington on Tuesday, 12 September 2017

          http://www.transparency.org.uk/hurricaneirma/

          “As some of the UK’s Overseas Territories face up to the devastating impact of Hurricane Irma, is it right that conditions should be placed on aid?

          In a humanitarian crisis, immediate aid for the victims must be the first priority. That should certainly be the case, without conditions, for the UK’s Overseas Territories affected by Hurricane Irma. Later, comes the question of what sort of longer-term development is appropriate to help individuals, societies and economies recover and flourish. We also know from experience of previous disasters that the questions asked and decisions made in the early stages can be critical to a successful long-term outcome.

          What does that mean for the UK’s Overseas Territories, in the immediate aftermath of a natural disaster? We are used to hearing those territories, such as the British Virgin Islands, cast as villains in the global fight against corruption. Their provision of secret financial services to all-comers has long been identified as a weak link in global anti-money laundering efforts. The Panama Papers revealed quite clearly how such secrecy has been exploited by dark money and that the misuse of global financial services by corrupt and criminal individuals is not something marginal at the fringes of the system, it is at the heart of the system and provides much of its raison d’etre.

          The governments of the Overseas Territories, and their sister group the Crown Dependencies, have argued that if they are unable to sell secrecy (described in their marketing as privacy or confidentiality) the business models of their economies will fail, and the UK taxpayer will be left to pick up the bill. At the moment, certain Overseas Territories are over-dependent on the provision of financial services built on secrecy and lax oversight, and this has indeed made it difficult for those islands to be advocates for a transition to cleaner economies. But the world is moving in that direction, and it is arguably only a matter of time before the Overseas Territories and the UK need to face up to the question of how to run a financial services industry that meets modern standards. The hurricane, tragic though it is, may accelerate a change that was inevitable.

          The hurricane has led to widespread destruction, and the UK taxpayer will now, in any event, be asked to pick up the bill – and rightly so, as these are small economies and closely linked to the UK. The elephant in the room is whether the aid should be paid unconditionally. Here are some principles that might help inform the UK government’s decision making to try and square the circle of helping the victims while also helping the island’s future economic development:

          1 – Victims in immediate need should be helped without any pre-conditions.

          2 – As the UK invests in rebuilding the BVI and other OTs it should be working with them on a plan about how to make sure those economies are not dependent on providing secret services that can easily be exploited by criminals. There is simply no way that a 21st century economy should provide a convenient safe haven for corrupt capital. The corruption that is facilitated by the UK’s Overseas Territories has itself hundreds of thousands of victims around the world – for example, ordinary people dying through lack of healthcare because health officials have stolen the budget and stashed it in offshore accounts.

          3 – If investment is required in re-building the Overseas Territories’ financial services industry, then it would be both fair and right to require that industry to operate to international good practice standards with regard to anti-money laundering; this is an opportunity to take stock and invest in systems for the future and not hang on to the failing systems of the past.

          4 – If the financial services have survived intact, and investment is required elsewhere, the islands’ governments and the UK government should be working out how to invest in developing sustainable economies that reduce reliance on selling services to criminals, such that those activities can be rapidly phased out. To be clear, this means the element of secrecy, not the provision of financial services.

          This is a terrible natural disaster. But that does not mean it needs to become a terrible long-term disaster either for the citizens of the islands or those people around the world who are the victims of corruption. Once the immediate humanitarian needs have been met, the governments concerned, both of the islands and the UK, need to plan for a future that is different to the disreputable recent past.”

        • Jeremy in Wales

           /  September 13, 2017

          eleggua,

          Interesting article and one I do not disagree with except to say that the system that has been allowed to grow up has been deliberately encouraged by the UK Government (in the American mould (Puerto Rico) they do not like paying out for the islands, even if they have responsibility) and the financial elite for their own ends. The reason is exactly because they want to scoop up criminal monies, drug monies or embezzaled aid monies to recycle those monies back into the financial system, as well as having a means of evading tax. The City of London has a web of connection to numerous tax havens, and this is no accident.
          Moves towards transparency are half hearted and unlikely to upset the current status quo in my opinion, but this should not be blamed on the populations of these islands or their governments who have few options.

        • eleggua

           /  September 15, 2017

          How do we peacefully upset the status quo? That’s one of the most important questions of our time, I feel. The power structure must change on every level – physical, political, economic – to allow for the survival of this species and most others on this planet in the relatively near short term. How to do that without violence, without wild, unchecked anger?

  49. eleggua

     /  September 12, 2017

    ’10 teams selected to map Bay Area’s response to rising sea levels’
    September 11, 2017

    http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/10-teams-selected-to-map-Bay-Area-s-response-to-12186922.php

    “…Each team will receive up to $250,000 for its work, which begins this week and will conclude in May with adaptation strategies for 10 distinct locations along the edge of the bay. There’s no guarantee they will be built — but the high-visibility competition could make it easier to attract large-scale grants and funding.

    “We want a balance between innovative designs and things that can be done,” said Amanda Brown-Stevens, managing director of the program, called Resilient by Design.

    The teams were announced Sunday at an event on the Richmond waterfront. They include representatives of nine countries, and were culled from 51 contenders…..”

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 12, 2017

      After reviewing the skimpy proposals, can’t tell if any of these may be worthwhile.
      Most look like well-designed Kickstarter campaigns – no meat, all potatoes – and as with Kickstarter including no guarantee of result.
      They were worthwhile for the for the 10 groups, though: $250,000’s worthwhile.

      ‘Resilient by Design: Meet the Design Teams’

      http://www.resilientbayarea.org/meet-the-design-teams/

      Reply
    • Hilary

       /  September 12, 2017

      We have a process underway of identifying risks & solutions in my district here in NZ, this is underway in spite of no guidance from our current government. This is an area that is v vulnerable to sea level rise & of course tsunami too. Here too the coastline has been subdivided into a number of sections with 2 community committees to make recommendations for solutions specific to each section.
      http://www.hbcoast.co.nz/
      Hilary

      Reply
      • Robert McLachlan

         /  September 12, 2017

        Also in New Zealand, we have an election in 10 days’ time. Two parties (Labour & Greens) are running on “carbon neutral by 2050” and are currently (very slightly) ahead in the polls. To see what they are up against, 3 large gas-fired power stations are poised to go ahead, and the head of our largest mining company said last week, “There is no viable alternative to coal, I mean we realize it’s a transition fuel, but there’s a lot of business, dairy, food manufacturing,… that rely on coal be a reliable, storable source of energy… Coal will still have a place to play in the next 15 years plus.” Could he be the first person in the whole world to call coal a “transition fuel”?!?

        Reply
        • Abel Adamski

           /  September 12, 2017

          NZ could be another Iceland with Geothermal and wind

        • eleggua

           /  September 12, 2017

          Nationals just jumped ahead in the polls, for whatever polls are worth.

          ‘Ruling Nationals recover support in jittery New Zealand election campaign’
          September 11, 2017

          https://www.reuters.com/article/us-newzealand-politics/ruling-nationals-recover-support-in-jittery-new-zealand-election-campaign-idUSKCN1BN0IX

          “The Newshub-Reid poll is the latest twist in the rollercoaster ride of New Zealand’s electoral campaign, coming just weeks after a separate poll showed support for the opposition Labour Party surging above the Nationals.

          “It’s a huge setback for Labour,” said Bryce Edwards, Wellington-based analyst at Critical Politics. “It really just shows how volatile this election campaign is.”

          The National Party has vowed to support free trade as global protectionism rises, in particular, by championing the Trans-Pacific Partnership pact, which Labour has said it would renegotiate…..

          The unusual volatility has been giving investors jitters.. The New Zealand dollar, the 11th most traded currency in the world in 2016, jumped to $0.7265 after the poll was released from $0.7224….

          New Zealand First, led by populist politician Winston Peters, slipped 0.6 points to 6 percent. The Green Party, which is aligned with Labour for a potential coalition, fell to 4.9 percent, below the 5 percent threshold needed to gain seats in parliament.”

        • eleggua

           /  September 12, 2017

          Ardern is not very ardent vis a vis clean energy. “declined to say…would not commit…we just have to accept…”

          ‘The Leader Interview – (Labour’s) Jacinda Ardern’
          12 September 2017

          http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/339209/the-leader-interview-jacinda-ardern

          “Labour’s line on foreign buyers of New Zealand housing needs to be tough, even if it affects free trade deals, Labour leader Jacinda Ardern says….

          On climate policy, Ms Ardern declined to say whether she would decide to have no new coal mines, but said it was important to move on.

          She would not commit to a ban on new deep-sea oil and gas drilling, but wanted to move away from them.

          “We just have to accept that we have consents that exist that do have a running time on them.”

          “We need to adjust the transition away from those non-renewable sectors.”

  50. eleggua

     /  September 12, 2017

    ‘Collapsing thunderstorms cause bizarre isolated winds that whip San Francisco Bay Area
    The gusts knocked some communities while others areas were completely still’
    Monday, September 11, 2017

    http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/wind-Bay-Area-Pebble-Beach-meteorologists-baffled-12188308.php

    “Story update Monday, 3 p.m.: Meteorologist Jan Null of Golden Gate Weather Services says Monday’s early morning winds were the result of collapsing thunderstorms. As storm cells moved from Southern California into Monterey County, air rose into the lower atmosphere. During the nighttime hours as temperatures cooled, the convective heating process that supports the air in the lower atmosphere stopped and the air fell to the ground.

    “As you get into the nighttime hours and you don’t have that lift to maintain all that air at the top of the thunderstorm, then the primary force is gravity,” Null says. “This heavy air is going to be coming down to the earth and it spreads out like an upside down mushroom.”

    Previous story below:

    Meteorologists are baffled by strong wind gusts that ripped through concentrated pockets of the Bay Area early Monday morning, while other areas remained completely still.

    The National Weather Service reports that a gust of 54 mph roared through Pebble Beach at 2:30 a.m., while only 10 minutes away in Monterey conditions remained completely calm….
    The first gusts roared through Pebble Beach and the southwesterly winds traveled north reaching up to 40 mph in Santa Cruz, up to 37 mph in Los Gatos and at the San Jose Airport.

    The weather service recorded the last gust from the event at 3:30 a.m.; it was a 35 mph wind at the Golden Gate Bridge. Bell says there are anecdotal reports of high winds in parts of Marin….

    The event lasted about two hours….
    The windy conditions weren’t in the forecast and came as a surprise to Bay Area residents.

    “There was no indication of this happening today,” Bell says. “We have computer models that are very high resolution that pick up a lot of features in the atmosphere and they didn’t detect it. We’re going to look through the data to find out what caused it.”

    He added: “This is a very unusual situation. And one we wish we’d given people more of a heads-up on. It definitely was not forecast.”….”

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 12, 2017

      Windstorm in the morn; lightning storm in the evening.

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 12, 2017

      Climate change has arrived with a roar and a bang in the Bay Area, quite literally.
      Looked and sounded beautiful, though.

      ‘Bay Area sees 1,200 lightning strikes in rare September thunderstorms’
      Updated 9:45 am, Tuesday, September 12, 2017

      http://www.sfgate.com/local/article/Bay-Area-thunder-lightning-rain-storm-weather-SF-12189916.php

      “Updated on September 12 at 7:20 a.m.: The National Weather Service reported Tuesday morning that 1,200 cloud-to-ground strikes and 5,800 in-cloud strikes hit the Bay Area Monday night.

      “You can see both,” says Scott Rowe, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Monterey. “Both are just as dangerous.”

      It started with strong wind gusts between 35 and 50 mph that roared through Monterey County and parts of the South Bay in the early morning hours. Later in the day, temperatures climbed to the 90s in San Jose and the high 80s in San Francisco….”

      Reply
  51. eleggua

     /  September 12, 2017

    ‘Why the Everglades Might Never Look the Same After Hurricane Irma’
    9.10.2017

    http://gizmodo.com/irma-is-but-the-latest-disaster-to-strike-the-everglade-1803072231

    “Irma is also hammering the Florida Everglades, and the scientists familiar with this fragile ecosystem are concerned the storm could deliver a devastating blow.

    “They’re losing out,” said Hal Wanless, a geologist at the University of Miami, when asked what’s been happening to the Everglades’ coastal marshes and mangrove swamps in wake of recent, powerful hurricanes. According to Wanless, a trifecta of urban development, extreme weather, and climate change has eroded the Everglades’ resilience. The system, he said, “is getting set back, it’s having trouble keeping up.”

    A sixty-mile wide river of sawgrass and mangrove forests that used to stretch all the way from Orlando to the Florida Keys, the Everglades is an internationally-recognized ecological treasure, home to alligators, panthers, manatees, crocodiles, more than 300 species of birds, and hundreds of rare or endemic plants. Its very existence is both predicated on water and existentially threatened by it—but the threats have been dramatically amplified over the past century, by unnatural drainage and development, and by unnatural changes to Earth’s climate.

    In order make South Florida livable, people had to drain the swamp. That effort began in earnest in the mid 20th century, with the diking and re-routing of Lake Okeechobee, a sprawling lens of freshwater that used to spill all the way down the sawgrass prairies of the Everglades and into Florida Bay. With the construction of thousands of miles of levees and canals, humans were able to tame, contain, and re-direct the lake, draining hundreds of thousands of acres of land directly south of it for sugar cultivation. The coastal floodplains of South Florida, meanwhile, were made suitable for highways, golf courses, and skyscrapers, setting the stage for a massive population boom.

    Roughly half of the Everglades has been drained or paved over since developers decided to conquer the land early US explorers described as “hideous” and “abominable.” What’s left of the formerly formidable ecosystem is far too dry, and plagued by a laundry list of ailments, from seagrass die-offs in Florida Bay when salinity levels get too high in the summer, to toxic algae blooms along Treasure Coast when too much agricultural effluent is sent spewing out of Lake O., to raging wildfires across habitats that used to be full-time wetlands.

    Compounding the problems caused by the draining of the Everglades is the threat of human-caused climate change. South Florida, which sits on porous limestone substrate often likened to Swiss cheese, has recently faced some of the highest rates of sea level rise in the world, and as the ocean plows further into its freshwater-adapted marshes, it’s weakening them even more. The region has seen about foot of sea level rise since the 1930s, with perhaps another three feet to go by the end of the century.

    Now, to add insult to injury, we have Irma, the strongest storm to make landfall in the United States since Hurricane Katrina, and one that a growing chorus of scientists are saying isn’t quite natural, either. While the extent of the storm’s impact on the Everglades won’t be known for some time, Wanless said that past storms, particularly Hurricane Andrew, which struck South Florida as a Category 5 in 1992, can help set our expectations.

    It was in wake of that storm that the United National put the Everglades on the list of World Heritage sites in Danger.

    “Andrew put down 80,000 acres of mangrove swamp,” Wanless said, noting that these swamps, which hold about half of their biomass in their massive root systems, literally build land out of the water. As soon as they start to decay, that land disappears. “We were getting subsidence rates of two to four centimeters per year, anywhere along Biscayne Bay or the West Coast of Florida north of Cape Sable,” in swamps leveled by the hurricane.

    Many of the mangrove stands that were badly hit by Hurricane Andrew, particularly the Ten Thousand Islands region near Everglades City, have since become part of the ocean, Wanless said.

    “It becomes a challenge for this mangrove fringe to survive,” he said. “They build soil [rapidly], and could probably keep up with a couple feet of sea level rise per century if there weren’t hurricanes.” But, “we’re gonna see a rapid loss of the mangroves in the presence of things like Irma.”

    That creates problems for inland, freshwater-adapted marshes, which the mangroves help to buffer against both storms and rising sea levels. As saltwater plows inland, it is triggering the collapse of thick, organic peat soils, which in turn leads to more loss of land. “As these soils become exposed to salt, you strongly tip the balance toward a more rapid breakdown,” Everglades ecologist Steve Davis told Gizmodo last year.

    These changes are evident in Cape Sable, an isolated and rapidly-eroding stretch of mangrove swamp, beach and marsh at the southwest toe of Everglades National Park that’s expected to see surges as high as 10 to 15 feet from Irma.

    “At a time when we’re having over a foot of sea level rise and accelerating each century, it becomes a race between the mangroves coming back and subsidence that leads to open water,” Wanless said.

    All of this has implications for the millions of people living in South Florida, who rely on a healthy, functioning Everglades to replenish their drinking water supply. Surficial, coastal aquifers are already being contaminated by saltwater intrusion on account of the Everglades being too dry, and as the oceans continue to creep up without enough freshwater recharge from the wetlands, the threat is expected to get worse. Meanwhile, population growth and urban sprawl could double Floridians’ water demands by mid-century.

    The multi-billion dollar solution to this tangled web of problems is the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan, an Army Corps-led effort to increase the flow of freshwater south from Lake Okeechobee in order to help the wetlands rebuild their strength. Many Everglades ecologists say it’s the only way to buy these ecosystems more time, but nearly twenty years after plans were first drawn up, little progress has been made.

    “If we’d immediately manage water levels that help mangroves [and marshes] recover from hurricanes and build up peats—which has not been done—maybe we could keep building up these wetlands to keep up with sea level, keep freshwater coming so they don’t dry out and burn,” Wanless said. “Maybe we could hold on to the glades through much of the century. As it is, we’re gonna have saltwater intrusion, and coastal erosion.”

    “Time’s running out for the Everglades,” he added.”

    Reply
  52. Greg

     /  September 12, 2017

    Reply
  53. eleggua

     /  September 12, 2017

    Not much in this article that we didn’t already learn about from reading RobertScribbler; a few interesting details, though.

    ‘How Hurricane Irma became so huge and destructive’
    September 8, 2017

    https://www.boston.com/weather/weather-wisdom/2017/09/08/how-hurricane-irma-became-so-huge-and-destructive

    “…Weather forecasters had already expected this summer to be an active hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean because of warmer-than-average ocean surface temperatures, which provide fuel for hurricanes, as well as weaker-than-average wind shear, which can help to dissipate storms.

    But even in that context, Irma was special.

    Irma initially developed near Cape Verde off Africa’s coast on Aug. 30, and a ridge of high pressure kept the storm from wandering off harmlessly into the cooler northern ocean. Instead, it was pushed inexorably westward, with plenty of time to intensify over the warm Atlantic waters.

    On its journey west, Irma underwent at least six cycles called “eyewall replacement,” when the eye of the hurricane naturally contracts. While storms can weaken during this process, they also can quickly intensify and expand in size once the cycle is complete. And Irma did not weaken — it just grew and grew.

    Ultimately, Irma persisted for three consecutive days in the Atlantic Ocean as a Category 5 storm, a record since scientists have been using satellites to watch storms. It also had maximum sustained winds recorded at more than 185 mph for 37 straight hours — beating the record set by Super Typhoon Haiyan in the Pacific in 2013, according to Klotzbach…

    As for climate change, scientists say they are still working to tease out exactly what role warmer temperatures are playing in recent hurricane activity.

    According to Thomas Knutson, a research meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, current climate models suggest that a rise in global temperatures could potentially lead to fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, but those that do form would be more intense, thanks to warmer water near the ocean surface, and bring heavier rainfall because of increased moisture in the air.

    But, to date, it has been difficult to detect clear trends against a background of natural variability. Ocean temperatures are certainly rising because of global warming. But over the past century, the Atlantic Ocean has also gone through periods of relatively little hurricane activity, as in the 1960s and ‘70s, as well as periods of high activity, as occurred after 1995. Researchers suspect those cycles are linked to fluctuations in wind shear, which can be affected by events like El Niño, as well as by ocean events like the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a cycle of fluctuations in sea surface temperature that may be affected by ocean currents and possibly air pollution.

    “But even if we can’t detect it yet, the models indicate that there should be some (climate change) effect there,” Knutson said.”

    Reply
  54. eleggua

     /  September 12, 2017

    Harvey on August 26, 2017, shot by Randy Bresnik on the International Space Station.

    Reply
  55. eleggua

     /  September 12, 2017

    Hurricane Irma, 9.07.2017, shot by Randy Bresnik.

    Reply
  56. eleggua

     /  September 12, 2017

    Hurricane Jose, 9.11.2017; Randy Bresnik on the ISS.

    Reply
  57. eleggua

     /  September 12, 2017

    “Because of what you have done the heavens have become a part of man’s world, and as you talk to us from the Sea of Tranquility, it inspires us to redouble our efforts to bring peace and tranquility to earth.

    For one priceless moment in the whole history of man all the people on this earth are truly one”

    – RMN, July 20, 1969, phone call to Apollo 11.

    Reply
  58. eleggua

     /  September 12, 2017

    Irma over Florida, night shot from the Suomi satellite. Lights mostly out in Miami; none visibile anywhere else on the southern tip of the state.

    Reply
  59. OT, but an interesting suggestion that Antarctic polynyas have global effects, even to contributing to the “climate hiatus”.

    Global Atmospheric Teleconnections and Multidecadal Climate Oscillations Driven by Southern Ocean Convection. 8 September 2017 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0741.1

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/09/170911122659.htm
    In the current work, Marinov and colleagues used powerful models that simulate past and future climate to determine how the effects of polynya ripple out around the globe.

    Their model indicated that polynyas and accompanying open-ocean convection occur roughly every 75 years. When they occur, the researchers observed, they act as a release valve for the ocean’s heat. Not only does the immediate area warm, but there are also increases in overall sea-surface and atmospheric temperatures of the entire Southern Hemisphere and, to a lesser extent, the Northern Hemisphere, as well.

    Changes in north-south temperature gradients lead to changes in wind patterns as well.

    “We are seeing a decrease in what we call the Southern Hemisphere westerlies and changes in trade winds,” Marinov said. “And these winds affect storms, precipitation and clouds.”

    Among these changes in precipitation is a shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, an equatorial belt where trade winds converge, resulting in intense precipitation. When a polynya occurs, this rain belt moves south a few degrees and stays there for 20 to 30 years before shifting back.

    “This affects water resources in, for example, Indonesia, South America and sub-Saharan Africa,” said Marinov. “We have a natural variation in climate that may be, among other effects, impacting agricultural production in heavily populated regions of the world.”

    Earlier research by Marinov’s group and collaborators suggested that, under climate change, polynyas may become less frequent. As sea ice melts it freshens the top layer of the sea surface, making it lighter and less likely to mix with the heavier bottom waters. Marinov notes that the fact that no significant polynyas opened up from the mid-1970s until last year may have contributed to the so-called “climate hiatus” in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when global average surface temperatures appeared to stall in their otherwise persistent upward climb.

    “During this hiatus period abnormal amounts of heat were stored in the subsurface ocean waters” Marinov said. “Most research has attributed this hiatus to a prolonged La Niña period, resulting in a storage of heat in the low-latitude Pacific. But I think that a lack of a Weddell Sea polynya also contributed, storing more heat in the Southern Ocean and preventing the additional release of heat to the atmosphere.”

    Reply
  60. Robert McLachlan

     /  September 12, 2017

    Also in New Zealand, we have an election in 10 days’ time. Two parties (Labour & Greens) are running on “carbon neutral by 2050” and are currently (very slightly) ahead in the polls. To see what they are up against, 3 large gas-fired power stations are poised to go ahead, and the head of our largest mining company said last week, “There is no viable alternative to coal, I mean we realize it’s a transition fuel, but there’s a lot of business, dairy, food manufacturing,… that rely on coal be a reliable, storable source of energy… Coal will still have a place to play in the next 15 years plus.” Could he be the first person in the whole world to call coal a “transition fuel”?!?

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 17, 2017

      The election’s a week away, Saturday the 23rd. Keeping an eye on this one. (Thanks, Robert M, for bringing attention to it.)

      ”Unprecedented, exciting’: 2017 NZ election the race nobody saw coming ‘
      September 17 2017

      http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/unprecedented-exciting-2017-nz-election-the-race-nobody-saw-coming-20170915-gyi0eg.html

      “…it’s a two-horse race too close to call, as the opposition storms from behind with a charismatic young leader who promises radical change….

      …with a week to go, Labour and National are neck and neck. Alternate polls show either party pulling ahead, and the result is too close to call.

      Ardern’s message of change has resonated with voters. Nine years of frustration have bubbled to the surface as National faces questions over its track record….

      …Arden is successfully tapping into growing unease over New Zealand’s social record. A recent UNICEF report ranked it worst in the developed world for teen suicide, and 34th out of 41 countries in terms of overall child wellbeing.

      Housing has become eye-wateringly expensive. A report from the International Monetary Fund last year crowned New Zealand as worst among 30 of the world’s richest countries for housing affordability, and homeownership rates are the lowest they’ve been since the 1950s.

      Intensive dairying has left a stain on the nation’s clean, green image, with many waterways polluted by effluent run-off. For most Kiwis it’s no longer safe to swim in the rivers they enjoyed as children.

      National has pledged to make 90 per cent of lakes and rivers swimmable again by 2040 – that’s decades away, and simply not good enough for many people.

      Ardern hit a nerve at a debate hosted by Fairfax NZ when she berated Bill English for failing the country’s youth.

      “My generation has been sold down the river by your government,” she said, to cheers from the audience.

      English’s retort was lacklustre; he knew well enough what the younger generation needed, he said, because he had helped to raise it himself. (He has six children.)

      His dismissal of Ardern as “stardust” also failed to gain any traction.

      Ardern pledges a fresh, compassionate approach to address healthcare, inequality, and the environment. She wants to enshrine poverty reduction targets in legislation, and says each budget should include a child poverty measurement….

      Duncan adds, it’s more accurate to say New Zealand voters are taking a good, hard look at what kind of place they want their country to be.

      “There’s a real choice between two leaders who are quite different in character,” he says. “One is relatively conservative, promising steady as she goes, and the other is young and vibrant, and offering change.”

      Duncan reflects it’s one of the best elections he’s seen.

      “Regardless of who wins, I think it’s been a really healthy campaign debate,” he says.

      “It’s democracy the way that it ought to be.””

      Reply
  61. wharf rat

     /  September 12, 2017

    Florida Keys post-Irma: 10,000 may need evacuation –
    Things were looking so dire that an estimated 10,000 people who rode out the storm in the Keys may require evacuation, the Defense Department said. The island chain is home to about 79,000 people.

    http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/11/weather/florida-keys-destruction-hurricane-irma/index.html

    Reply
  62. Leland Palmer

     /  September 12, 2017

    Thinking about the 180 billion dollars for Harvey reconstruction, I’m wondering just how much solar energy this amount of money could stimulate if just spent as tax credits. Solar for 20 million households? What percentage of U.S. electricity production and CO2 production would that represent? Five or ten percent,maybe?

    As a businessman, Trump can no doubt count costs, one would think?

    Before his meeting with Pelosi and Schumer, I had given up hope. But now, a turning away from climate change denial could occur, I think.

    I believe myself that one of the most cost effective deals around is BECCS (Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage). Using BECCS, we could transform old coal fired power plants into carbon negative power plants, and start putting carbon back underground.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage

    The quick and dirty way to do carbon capture is to use oxy-fuel combustion by substituting oxygen for air. This oxy-fuel combustion can be retrofitted to existing coal fired power plants, and it results in a pure stream of CO2. The CO2 can then be disposed of by mineral carbonation, using direct injection or the CarbFix scheme using carbonated waste water or seawater.

    I believe myself that an agency similar to NASA should be established to oversee a massive transformation of fossil fuel power plants to BECCS. Because BECCS simultaneously displaces fossil fuel addition of CO2 to the atmosphere, produces useful electricity that can be used for electric vehicles, and puts carbon back underground, it can have a tremendous mathematical impact on the global warming problem.

    We’re going to have a lot of closed coal and natural gas fired power plants, as solar and wind energy development continues. We should immediately transform those power plants to BECCS, and start putting carbon back underground.

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 12, 2017

      Bloomberg News saying it’s going to US$50billion not $200b. Will be interesting, watching the numbers evolve.

      ‘A $150 Billion Misfire: How Disaster Models Got Irma Wrong’
      September 11, 2017

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-11/-150-billion-misfire-how-forecasters-got-irma-damage-so-wrong

      “…Estimates for the damage Hurricane Irma would inflict on Florida kept mounting as it made its devastating sweep across the Caribbean. It was poised to be the costliest U.S. storm on record. Then something called the Bermuda High intervened and tripped it up.

      “We got very lucky,” said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Michigan. If Irma had passed 20 miles west of Marco Island instead of striking it on Sunday, “the damage would have been astronomical.” A track like that would have placed the powerful, eastern eye wall of Irma on Florida’s Gulf Coast.

      By one estimate, the total cost dropped to about $50 billion Monday from $200 billion over the weekend. The state escaped the worst because Irma’s eye shifted away from the biggest population center of Miami-Dade County.

      The credit goes to the Bermuda High, which acts like a sort of traffic cop for the tropical North Atlantic Ocean. The circular system hovering over Bermuda jostled Irma onto northern Cuba Saturday, where being over land sapped it of some power, and then around the tip of the Florida peninsula, cutting down on storm surge damage on both coasts of the state.

      “The Bermuda High is finite and it has an edge, which was right over Key West,” Masters said. Irma caught the edge and turned north….”

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 12, 2017

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 12, 2017

      “As a businessman, Trump can no doubt count costs, one would think?”

      He can count “Billions and Billions and Billions”, billions and billions and billions of times.
      Alex Jones can only count “Thousands and Hundreds!”. Wealth reflected in anaphora.

      “We should immediately transform those power plants to BECCS, and start putting carbon back underground.”

      ^That’s an excellent idea, all kidding aside.

      Reply
      • Leland Palmer

         /  September 13, 2017

        HI eleggua –

        Yeah, estimated costs from Harvey and Irma both keep evolving. Irma was much, much less damaging than it could have been, had it not hit the mountains of Cuba and taken the track it did, I think. Total costs from both could be around 180 billion dollars, we’ll see.

        Yes, BECCS is a good idea, I think. One quick and dirty way to do BECCS would be carbonize the biomass to charcoal in small scale distributed biomass refineries, generating some electricity at this step. Hydrogen production from the biomass might be able to crack the resulting polyaromatic hydrocarbons as is done for cyclic compounds in oil refineries, or a hydrogen fueled afterburner might be able to burn them up. Then, the resulting pure charcoal could easily be burned in existing coal fired power plants, I think. It’s also cheaper to transport charcoal than biomass, it’s a more condensed fuel.

        When the coal fired power plants are retrofitted for BECCS/charcoal and oxy-fuel combustion, we might as well convert them to combined cycle power plants, I think. In combined cycle, a high temperature gas turbine running off heated air is used as a topping cycle, increasing the electricity output of the plant by roughly 40 percent. This would recover some or all of energy cost of producing the cryogenic oxygen for oxy-fuel combustion. The result would be more complex but more efficient power plants, producing electricity at roughly current rates, but capable of producing a pure stream of CO2 for mineral carbonation in basalt formations.

        Biomass fuel can be as cheap as coal. BECCS is a bargain, would have a huge mathematical impact on global warming, and we ought to do it in a big way, I think.

        Reply
        • 0000

           /  September 13, 2017

          >

        • eleggua

           /  September 13, 2017

          I’m just learning about it, thanks to your posts. Likely you can better assess and address these articles below. (Cannot recall an article by Robert on this specific topic and none come up on search.)

          ‘Biomass More Polluting Than Coal, New Study Finds ‘
          Feb. 28, 2017

          https://www.ecowatch.com/chatham-house-biomass-study-2288764699.html

        • eleggua

           /  September 13, 2017

          This site does not appear to be a denier whitewasher but cannot vouch for their cred.
          About them:
          ” The Partnership for Policy Integrity (PFPI) uses science, legal action, and strategic communications to promote sound energy policy.
          Founded in 2010 by Dr. Mary Stuart Booth, an ecologist formerly at the Environmental Working Group (EWG), and Richard Wiles, a co-founder of EWG, PFPI provides science and legal support so that citizen groups, environmental organizations, and policymakers can better understand energy development impacts on air quality, water quality, ecosystems, and the climate. Our current work focuses on biomass energy, oil and natural gas drilling, and hydraulic fracturing. ”

          The article:

          ‘Carbon emissions from burning biomass for energy
          Is biomass “Worse than coal”? Yes, if you’re interested in reducing carbon dioxide emissions anytime in the next 40 years. ‘

          http://www.pfpi.net/carbon-emissions

        • eleggua

           /  September 13, 2017

          ‘The quest to capture and store carbon – and slow climate change — just reached a new milestone’
          April 10, 2017

          https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/04/10/the-quest-to-capture-and-store-carbon-and-slow-climate-change-just-reached-a-new-milestone/

        • Leland Palmer

           /  September 14, 2017

          Hi eluggua-

          There can be some argument about the short term effects of simple biomass burning from wood pellets. It depends on what your assumptions are, and how the biomass is produced, I think. To protect ourselves from fossil fuel industry astroturfing we should remind ourselves that the biosphere has been burning biomass mostly harmlessly for hundreds of millions of years, as part of the natural carbon cycle. Long term, biomass burning does avoid the tremendous long term greenhouse gas multiplier effect of fossil fuels, in which we pay the greenhouse heat penalty for fossil fuel use today for thousands of years.

          That BECCS is carbon negative, though, really can’t be questioned. For simple biomass burning, the carbon source is the forests, the carbon destination is the atmosphere, and we have to wait for the biosphere to remove that carbon from the atmosphere to get back to zero. For BECCS the carbon source is forests, plantations, or short growth canes and grasses. The carbon destination for BECCS is mineral carbonation in basalt formations as carbonate, ideally. So BECCS goes beyond carbon neutrality to become carbon negative, on all time scales.

          So biomass burning would be illustrated by the U shaped part of the diagram above, while BECCS is illustrated by the big down arrow, with a small up arrow attached to it. In this diagram, up arrows represent carbon transferred into the atmosphere, while arrows pointing down represent carbon put back underground.

          The way to maximize the effects of BECCS would be to take the carbon from short growth biomass, and put it underground. That way the transfer of carbon from atmosphere to mineral carbonation would be very quick.

          I kind of suspect that a lot of the biomass burning condemnation that we read about is fossil fuel industry astroturfing – right out of the ExxonMobil playbook. In this sort of astroturfing, propaganda sources give themselves high sounding or extremely bland names, all the while putting out information that argues the fossil fuel case.

        • eleggua

           /  September 14, 2017

          Thanks so much for the detailed explanation. Reading about and looking at photos of the process, not sure about it. Looks grungy; not really clean; deep drilling and injection of material. Is that going to be safe, totally safe, or is there any chance of geological effects ala fracking? Solar and wind aren’t dirty. Again, just learning about BECCS, so my feelings are based on a cursory glance. Will keep an eye on it, moving forward.

          Are you aware of this upcoming conference, Monday thru Wednesday next week in Champaign, Illinois?

          http://www.sequestration.org/resources/PAG2017/index-PAG2017.html

          The Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium (MGSC), one of the seven US Department of Energy Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships, The Sequestration Training and Education Program (STEP) and Schlumberger Carbon Services are hosting a knowledge sharing event focused on accomplishments at the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP), Decatur, Illinois.

          The conference will focus on the most recent results from the post-injection monitoring phase, and lessons learned on plume development, 4D seismic and modeling as well as microseismic activity. Participants will have ample opportunity for discussion and networking. The program includes full day of IBDP research presentations and posters covering all aspects of the MGSC Phase III research activities. We also plan a site visit to the Illinois Industrial Sources CCS project in Deactur. Technical registration is $150; Student registration is $35.

        • eleggua

           /  September 14, 2017

          Here’s a tangential benefit; a laser that can detect carbon dioxide emissions.

          ‘Lasers scan for leaks at Illinois carbon sequestration site’
          June 9, 2015

          http://midwestenergynews.com/2015/06/09/lasers-scan-for-leaks-at-illinois-carbon-sequestration-site/

          “A laser technology capable of detecting carbon dioxide emissions in near real-time is being tested above ground at an Illinois carbon sequestration site.

          If successful, the same technology could help pinpoint the sources and determine the quantity of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases over entire cities, its proponents say.

          The tests are being conducted through a U.S. Department of Energy-funded program known as the Greenhouse Gas Laser Imaging Tomography Experiment (GreenLITE). The underlying laser technology was developed by Fort Wayne, Indiana-based Exelis Inc., which last week was acquired by the Florida-based Harris Corp.

          Launched in February but announced publicly on May 27, the $2.09 million GreenLITE project is monitoring the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP), where CO2 from an Archer Daniels Midland ethanol plant has been piped 7,000 underground and stored in a special perforated steel-and-cement encased well, which is designed to gradually release the gas into permanent subterranean rock formations.

          The results, so far, are good.

          “There is no detection of emissions associated with the carbon sequestration, ”said Jeremy Dobler, a Harris senior solutions engineer. “It isn’t leaking,”….

          The Bozeman site is tightly controlled—specified quantities of CO2 were intentionally released to see if GreenLITE would detect it. GreenLITE passed those tests, Aljoe said.

          “A technology that is sensitive enough to detect atmospheric CO2 activity from vegetation is going to be sensitive enough to detect a release of the magnitude that would come from a geologic storage site,” Aljoe said…….”

        • Leland Palmer

           /  September 15, 2017

          Hi eleggua-

          It would be better to make our energy and climate decisions based on logic and mathematics, rather than by association or appearance, I think. Putting too many constraints on a problem can make it unsolvable.

          The climate speaks the language of billions of tons of carbon, and we have a narrow window of opportunity to speak to it in that language and head off climate destabilization, I think.

          Given deep injection of CO2, BECCS can be managed to have very low emissions – approaching zero, maybe. Certainly, BECCS should be done safely, and we have the scientific ability to make that happen.

        • eleggua

           /  September 17, 2017

          “It would be better to make our energy and climate decisions based on logic and mathematics, rather than by association or appearance, I think. Putting too many constraints on a problem can make it unsolvable.”

          Definitely. I don’t know much about BECCS, way far less than you. I’ve only appearance and cursory research to go on, and that’s not enough to make any conclusions. Glad you’ve brought it to my attention; thanks for that and your knowlegable assessments.

          “The climate speaks the language of billions of tons of carbon, and we have a narrow window of opportunity to speak to it in that language and head off climate destabilization, I think. ”

          Yep; really well said; wholeheartedly agree.

      • There has been a lot of work on the true end to end costs of BECCS, from the energy involved in growing all the way to the energy to transport the gas into the storage medium. Then we have the competition for land with growing food. It doesn’t look so good once you take all of those things into account. As much a way to keep current fossil fuel power stations going with a new fuel mix than a real solution. One CCS trial plant after another has been shutdown due to complexity and cost.

        Just build out solar+wind, take advantage of the huge possibilities for energy efficiency, and reforestation/land use change to increase CO2 uptake.

        Reply
        • Leland Palmer

           /  September 13, 2017

          Well, we hear a lot of stuff about BECCS and carbon capture and storage. Some of the stuff we hear is from coal companies or coal fired utilities- that don’t really want to do CCS…they want to do nothing at all.
          CCS and BECCS have problems…all of which are solvable or tolerable. And it could put carbon back underground- immediately, before things get entirely out of hand – if we’re lucky.

        • Leland Palmer

           /  September 15, 2017

          Threre has been some work on BECCS end to end costs and efficiency, but not enough, and not enough creative or inventive work, I think.

          Transport costs could be lowered by planting the biomass plantations at higher elevations than the retrofitted coal fired power plants, for example. Cableways, electric vehicles or electric trains with regenerative braking can actually generate electricity while moving biomass downhill. Return trips back uphill would be made with empty vehicles, for a net energy cost of roughly zero.

          Similarly biomass or charcoal could be barged down navigable rivers to power plants from biomass plantations, forests, or agricultural areas further up the watershed. The Mississippi river basin has huge sources of biomass and has many coal fired power plants located on navigable rivers. The coal fired power plants were built along the navigable rivers for cooling water and for barged transport of coal. The entire Mississippi basin could become one huge BECCS project, putting hundreds of millions of tons of carbon per year back underground. The barges would go downstream full, and if tethered to cableways, could generate electricity on the downstream leg of the journey. This electricity could then be used to tow the empty barges back upstream, for an energy cost of roughly zero.

          Transport costs could also be lowered by carbonizing the biomass into charcoal at local biomass refineries.

          Scientists should take a close, creative, inventive look at BECCS, free of fossil fuel corporation influence, I think.

        • Leland Palmer

           /  September 15, 2017

          The claims of zero net energy for net downhill transport of biomass might strike some readers as too good to be true.

          The physics is a simple transformation of gravitational potential energy to kinetic energy, like hydropower. Like hydropower, it is actually a form of solar energy- the sun moves the water or nutrients to grow biomass back uphill.

        • Leland Palmer

           /  September 15, 2017

          Might have to haul the wood ash back uphill and scatter it around. There would be a surplus of almost empty vehicles or barges returning to the biomass sources to do that.

        • eleggua

           /  September 17, 2017

          Lots of cool ideas there, Leland. The images you evoke are wonderful; remediation in action. That’s the future I’m ready to inhabit.

          “Might have to haul the wood ash back uphill and scatter it around. There would be a surplus of almost empty vehicles or barges returning to the biomass sources to do that.”

          The little engines that could.

  63. eleggua

     /  September 12, 2017

    Perspective on crisis management and solutions suggested.

    ‘My Irma evacuation: 600 miles and a few tips for Florida’
    By David Wheeler September 11, 2017

    http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/11/opinions/florida-heres-a-clue-about-evacuations-wheeler/index.html

    “…Thursday when I realized I would have to flee Tampa….a 600-mile drive — to Birmingham — before I found a hotel. By then, it was 7 a.m., and I had been driving for 14 straight hours….

    I know what you’re thinking: “Why didn’t you book a hotel room beforehand?” Well, that would have been great. The problem: gridlock traffic that caused me to direct my odyssey northwest toward Alabama. I wasn’t sure when I would actually arrive at any particular place. What if I booked a hotel in a city that I could never reach? What if I ran out of gas before I got there? What if I never even made it out of Florida?

    I had a full tank of gas before I left — lucky because even on the back roads that I took to get around the traffic, most gas stations had those telltale plastic bags over their pumps.
    Which brings me to the first big way the state could improve the evacuation process: Find more ways to make gasoline available to evacuees. In some areas, more than 65% of stations were out of gas. How do we evacuate without gas?
    Think of it this way: In northern US cities that have to deal with snow and ice for several months of the year, city trucks are dependably clearing and salting roads before dawn. They know they’re going to get slammed by winter weather. It happens every year, and they’re ready. Yes, it costs money, but at least residents of cities around the Great Lakes know they can get to work in the morning.
    Likewise, Florida knows it’s going to have to deal with hurricanes every year (and their effects stand to get worse and worse)….

    Another solution for hurricane evacuations: buses. Imagine the amount of gasoline you could save by evacuating 40 people at a time instead of one or two at a time. Evacuation buses would also alleviate traffic congestion.

    The next big way the state could improve its hurricane evacuation process: encourage hotels and motels to allow people to stay in the lobby, pool room, exercise room — anywhere there’s space. Hotels are businesses, so I’m not suggesting they allow people to crash on the couch in the lobby for free. They could still charge money for a spot on the floor. I would’ve paid it!

    Instead, we have a situation where weary travelers, running on little to no sleep, are repeatedly turned away at hotel after hotel, and end up getting back on the road when they shouldn’t be.
    If there are evacuation shelters, why can’t there also be shelters for people who simply need to sleep for a few hours? At one of the rest areas where I briefly stopped, there were hundreds of people sleeping in their cars. There were also people sleeping in their cars on the side of the interstate. Wouldn’t it be much safer to work with hotels and motels to find ways for exhausted travelers to catch some shuteye?

    Not everyone was as lucky as me. If not for a full tank of gas, and adrenaline to keep me awake, I could easily have been one of those people asleep on the side of the road — vulnerable in an approaching catastrophe. In Florida, hurricanes pass by every year. Can’t we do a better job of finding people shelter from these storms?”

    Reply
  64. eleggua

     /  September 12, 2017

    ‘Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change’
    Edited by Hans R. Herren, Millennium Institute, Washington, DC, and approved August 10, 2017 (received for review October 28, 2016)

    http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/09/05/1617940114.full

    “Abstract:

    Climate change will cause geographic range shifts for pollinators and major crops, with global implications for food security and rural livelihoods. However, little is known about the potential for coupled impacts of climate change on pollinators and crops.
    Coffee production exemplifies this issue, because large losses in areas suitable for coffee production have been projected due to climate change and because coffee production is dependent on bee pollination.
    We modeled the potential distributions of coffee and coffee pollinators under current and future climates in Latin America to understand whether future coffee-suitable areas will also be suitable for pollinators.
    Our results suggest that coffee-suitable areas will be reduced 73–88% by 2050 across warming scenarios, a decline 46–76% greater than estimated by global assessments. Mean bee richness will decline 8–18% within future coffee-suitable areas, but all are predicted to contain at least 5 bee species, and 46–59% of future coffee-suitable areas will contain 10 or more species.
    In our models, coffee suitability and bee richness each increase (i.e., positive coupling) in 10–22% of future coffee-suitable areas. Diminished coffee suitability and bee richness (i.e., negative coupling), however, occur in 34–51% of other areas.
    Finally, in 31–33% of the future coffee distribution areas, bee richness decreases and coffee suitability increases.
    Assessing coupled effects of climate change on crop suitability and pollination can help target appropriate management practices, including forest conservation, shade adjustment, crop rotation, or status quo, in different regions. “

    Reply
    • Shawn Redmond

       /  September 13, 2017

      There will be no pollinators long before the coffee regions shift. “Naled” google it, and it’s not alone. Looks like Texas wants the Feds to spray an unprecedented area with this shit. I guess the pollution levels on the ground aren’t high enough yet.
      https://www.ecowatch.com/harvey-pesticide-naled-2484385387.html?utm_campaign=RebelMouse&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_content=EcoWatch

      Reply
      • Shawn Redmond

         /  September 13, 2017

        From the above linked article:
        Naled’s Toxicity Not Confined to Mosquitoes

        While the Pentagon has framed its efforts to “assist” as seeking to eliminate a potential human health risk, the particular chemical it is using to control insect populations is likely to do more harm than good. According to the Air Force, the mosquito control protocol involves spraying the “Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approved and regulated material, Naled,” which the Air Force insists will not be used in amounts large enough to “cause any concern for human health.”

        However, the insecticide Naled, manufactured and sold by a strategic partner of Monsanto, is currently banned in the European Union due to the “unacceptable risk” it presents to human health.

        Naled is a known neurotoxin in animals and humans, as it inhibits acetylcholinesterase—an enzyme essential to nerve function and communication—and has even been known to have caused paralysis. Mounting scientific evidence, including a recent Harvard study, has also pointed to Naled’s responsibility for the mass die-off of North American bees. Just one day of Naled spraying in South Carolina killed more than 2.5 million bees last year.

        Yet, the most concerning consequence Naled poses for human health is the chemical’s ability to cross the placental barrier—meaning that Naled freely crosses from mother to fetus. A study conducted at the University of Oslo found that Naled’s breakdown product, dichlorvos, caused a 15 percent decrease in the brain size of newborn guinea pigs when their mothers were exposed to Naled for only three days during pregnancy. Doctors from Puerto Rico have also claimed that Naled harms fetuses.
        Studies in the U.S. have also shown that pregnant women exposed to Naled had a 60 percent higher chance of having a child with an autism-spectrum disorder.

        This is especially troubling given that the manufacturer of Naled, Sumimoto Chemical Corp., is also the manufacturer of the mosquito larvicide SumiLarv, a chemical now believed to have been the real culprit behind the spike in birth defects in Brazil originally attributed to the Zika virus.

        At the height of the Zika scare, a group of Argentine doctors, Médicos de Pueblos Fumigados, published a report citing a pesticide used to kill mosquito larva as the real cause of the birth defects. According to the report, the area where most of the affected Brazilian families live, Pernambuco, had its drinking water treated for 18 months with a chemical larvicide that produces fatal birth defects in mosquitoes.

        Pernambuco subsequently reported more than 4,000 cases of microcephaly in 2015. In contrast, in Colombia, public health officials diagnosed more than 17,000 pregnant women with Zika last year, yet only 18 cases of Zika-associated microcephaly were reported—less than 0.2 percent of the total.

        In addition, the Air Force’s characterization of Naled as an “EPA approved and regulated material” omits the important fact that the EPA is currently re-evaluating the chemical for safety. According to the EPA’s website, “the EPA expects to issue new human health and ecological risk assessments for Naled before the end of 2017.” Scientists and concerned citizens have noted that Naled will likely be banned as the EPA found it to harm 22 out of 28 endangered species exposed to it.

        Agrochem Corp Pressures to Keep Naled on the Market

        However, political pressure could keep it on the market. Such pressure was manifest in last year’s “Zika Vector Control Act,” which passed the House but failed in the Senate and narrowly missed becoming law. If it had been passed, the act would have exempted mosquito-control operations from environmental regulations and would have kept Naled on the market regardless of the EPA’s decision. It also would have ended monitoring of and limits to pesticide use.

        Though the act ultimately failed to become law, there will likely be another effort at preventing the chemical from being banned by the EPA. It is currently “one of the most widely used pesticides in the United States for aerial mosquito control” and has been applied to “about 16 million acres per year in the continental United States.”

        Given its wide use, the chemical’s manufacturer and its strategic partner Monsanto will likely want to keep such a profitable product on the market, lest they face a mass drop in sales and revenue.

        Reply
        • eleggua

           /  September 13, 2017

          That’s just crazy! Who’re the “authorities” that made the decision, and better yet, what connection/s do they have to the “strategic partner of Monstanto”?

          “Authorities have requested the 910th Airlift Wing to potentially treat more than six million affected acres.”

  65. wharf rat

     /  September 13, 2017

    Old article, written before the Berkeley Earth/ Mueller study sent Judith Curry over the edge.

    Hurricanes are getting fiercer
    Global warming blamed for growth in storm intensity.
    Published online 3 September 2008 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news.2008.1079
    ==

    “It’ll be pretty hard now for anyone to claim that cyclone activity has not increased,” says Judith Curry, an atmospheric researcher at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, who was not involved in the study.

    Strongest storms matter most
    Three years ago, Curry and her team calculated that category 4 and 5 storms have almost doubled in number and proportion since 1970 2.

    “People should now stop saying ‘who cares, storm activity is just a few per cent up’,” says (Judith) Curry. “It’s the strongest storms that matter most.”

    http://www.nature.com/news/2008/080903/full/news.2008.1079.html

    Reply
  66. Apneaman

     /  September 13, 2017

    eleggua, I don’t give a fuck about what you think is useful. “Not useful” & “not being useful” are standard issue PC liberal ammo debate stoppers. It what you say when you do not have a cogent argument. It’s a dismissal. See it all the time.

    Perhaps I should call you eleggua scribbler since you appear to have taken over the blog? Why not lay off the red bull or whatever speedy shit you are on?

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 13, 2017

      Just lay off the anger and insults. Your “argument” isn’t an argument; it’s just a angry rant, and not an invitation to conversation/debate. You seem to only care about your angry perspective.

      Robert, if you feel my posts are a problem in any way (frequency, content, etc), please contact me via email and I’ll make an adjustment. Thank you.

      Reply
      • Everybody just take deep breaths. The looming pesticide/bee/pollinator issue tends to hit where the mind can’t grasp. We know that all pesticides, herbicides and such are meant to kill living tissue. Since metabolism is basically similar in all life, little bits kill little creatures, big bits kill big creatures. None are actually safe, it’s just a merry-go-round. Gasp, how toxic A is, this is terrible, let’s switch to B, which is less toxic. Then after a couple or three decades to observe the effects of B, repeat and go on to C. I don’t have any answer.

        My local bee keeper last winter lost all but 4 of 21 hives and has no honey for me this spring for first time ever. Jars of (I understand, still good) honey have been found in the tombs of ancient Egyptian Pharaohs. When I taste the honey of the aforementioned keeper I understand why.

        Reply
    • I can certainly understand your anger, and am quite sympathetic to your viewpoint. After all, unless you have chosen the right geographical spot to live and have lived just about all of your life, climate change will likely have a major, if not catastrophic effect on your (and mine, and everybody else’s) life. Previously in history man made disasters have been relatively local, but now we aspired to the global scale. However, you are still relatively optimistic in that you may believe that right action (right in your view) has a significant chance to prevent the maximum disaster. Unfortunately, I’m more pessimistic. That being said, I think this website is for those who want to learn more about climate change and track that change as it happens. This website is not for convincing the deniers of the errors of their ways; although I do copy friends who are deniers on articles on this blog. To what effect, I don’t know (yet). So many people are angry; so what to do with the anger? Should it be simply expressed, relieving serious psychological pressures, but perhaps not effective in moving anybody’s position? Or should it be targeted in the most effective manner so as to have the greatest impact on the largest number of people as a contribution to steering the Earth’s ship away from the iceberg, leaving one’s anger as a corrosive force eating away our personal health? I’m not sure that there is a correct answer to these questions, but I am sure for those of us that are more optimistic, persuasion is more important than releasing excess emotional energy (excess in the sense of what our bodies can handle in a healthy manner.) Even for the pessimistic, anger can be channelled to good purposes. Perhaps that channelling will not save life’s outpost on Earth, but it may make the lives of people surrounding us better for whatever time is left. Yes, I do understand your anger, and it is warranted. Now the question, what does one do with that anger? So yes, I am interested in how you channel your anger, and your thoughts as to how that channelling will help, even if that help only extends to your family, friends and neighbors. Good luck to you! … and good luck to all of us!

      Reply
      • Witchee

         /  September 15, 2017

        +1

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  September 15, 2017

        Thanks, longboren. Very well said. Thanks.

        “I am interested in how you channel your anger, and your thoughts as to how that channelling will help, even if that help only extends to your family, friends and neighbors.”

        Everyone here, commenting on this blog, are each other’s neighbors.

        Reply
        • nwkilt

           /  September 15, 2017

          Thank you eleggua for you contributions to this blog over the last few weeks. +1

        • eleggua

           /  September 17, 2017

          You’re welcome. Thank you. bcnu

          ‘Oregon Wildfire Roundup For Sept. 15 ‘
          Sep 15, 2017

          http://ijpr.org/post/oregon-wildfire-roundup-sept-15#stream/0

          “Continued cooler weather is giving fire crews a leg up on getting southern Oregon’s major wildfires under control. As fire behavior for the most part becomes more mild, firefighters are able to make more rapid progress.

          Smoke continues to be an issue in nearby communities, but that, too, is improving with the arrival of fall weather……”

    • eleggua

       /  September 15, 2017

      I apologize for chastising you, Apneaman. That was lame of me; I’m sorry.
      Wishing you well.

      Reply
  67. eleggua

     /  September 13, 2017

    ‘Stevie Wonder: Anyone who doesn’t believe in global warming ‘must be ‘blind’’
    09/13/17

    http://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/350399-stevie-wonder-anyone-who-doesnt-believe-in-global-warming-must

    “Stevie Wonder struck a political note at a concert to raise money for hurricane relief late Tuesday, saying anyone who does not believe in global warming “must be blind.”

    “Anyone who believes that there’s no such thing as global warming must be blind or unintelligent,” the musician said during the “Hand in Hand” telethon.

    “Lord, please save us all””

    Reply
  68. eleggua

     /  September 13, 2017

    ‘As Hurricane Irma bore down, Tesla gave some Florida drivers more battery juice. Here’s why that’s a big deal.’
    September 11, 2017

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2017/09/11/as-hurricane-irma-bore-down-tesla-gave-some-florida-drivers-more-battery-juice-heres-why-thats-a-big-deal/

    Reply
  69. Vic

     /  September 13, 2017

    Australia’s bushfire season is off to an early start, again. Several out of control bushfires took hold around New South Wales today in high winds and unseasonably warm temperatures, while Sydney recorded its highest ever Semptember temperature in records that go back 159 years.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/sep/13/bushfires-and-record-temperatures-herald-arrival-of-forecast-spring-heat

    ^ Thanks to The Guardian for some climate context.

    v Here’s the ABC’s coverage, completely devoid of climate context.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-13/fire-threatens-properties-in-richmond-vale/8940622

    Reply
  70. wharf rat

     /  September 13, 2017


    Millions of people in Florida and other southeastern states, along with Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands, remain without power, making Hurricane Irma the worst weather-related power outage in U.S. history, according to estimates.

    https://thinkprogress.org/irma-power-outages-de70ba460ae2/

    Reply
  71. Kassy

     /  September 14, 2017

    Ancient tree reveals cause of spike in Arctic temperature

    30,000 year old kauri tree reveals atmospheric mechanism that led to Dansgaard-Oeschger event during last glacial period

    “Intriguingly, we found that the spike in temperature preserved in the Greenland ice core corresponded with a 400-year-long surface cooling period in the Southern Ocean and a major retreat of Antarctic ice,” said lead author and UNSW scientist Professor Chris Turney.

    “As we looked more closely for the cause of this opposite response we found that there were no changes to the global ocean circulation during the Antarctic cooling event that could explain the warming in the North Atlantic. There had to be another cause.”

    A clue to what might be going on if the oceans weren’t involved appeared in lake sediments from the Atherton Tableland, Queensland. The sediments showed a simultaneous collapse of rain-bearing trade winds over tropical northeast Australia.

    It was a curious change, so the researchers turned to climate models to see if these climate events might somehow be linked.

    They started by modelling the release of large volumes of freshwater into the Southern Ocean, exactly as would happen with rapid ice retreat around the Antarctic.

    Consistent with the data, they found that there was cooling in the Southern Ocean but no change in the global ocean circulation.

    They also found that the freshwater pulse caused rapid warming in the tropical Pacific. This in turn led to changes to the atmospheric circulation that went on to trigger sharply higher temperatures over the North Atlantic and the collapse of rain-bearing winds over tropical Australia.

    Essentially, the model showed the formation of a 20,000 km long “atmospheric bridge” that linked melting ice in Antarctica to rapid atmospheric warming in the North Atlantic.

    more on:
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/09/170912093056.htm

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  September 14, 2017

      Some serious volcanic areas in Antarctica plus evidence plus some major meteor/asteroid strikes. (Had one apparently around 2008, but not a real biggie)
      An effusive volcanic event over an extended period, a century or 4 could have done the dirty deed

      Reply
  72. Abel Adamski

     /  September 14, 2017

    Meanwhile
    http://www.newstatesman.com/world/2017/09/hurricane-irma-and-why-only-thing-worse-climate-change-denial-acceptance

    Hurricane Irma and why the only thing worse than climate change denial is acceptance

    People don’t like to be reminded of their own moral relativism when their homes are underwater.
    Climate change denial is not about facts. It is about faith, and faith comes in many forms, including the blackly comic.

    This week, as the most devastating hurricanes on record pummelled the Caribbean and the southern United States, Scott Pruitt, the Republican politician and head of the US Environmental Protection Agency, said that “the place (and time)” to discuss “the cause and effect of these storms” is not now.

    He spoke with the self-confidence of a man appointed to head the very agency he’d spent the previous decade trying to destroy, and the bluster of one trying to pretend he hasn’t just tripped and fallen over an enormous carbon footprint.

    It is overwhelmingly likely that the storms are happening because of climate change. There are other, less rational but more comforting explanations, such as the conviction being put forward by certain Christian evangelicals that this is all part of a prophecy about the end times somehow connected to the August eclipse and what we really ought to be doing is converting more sinners, rather than stocking up on safe drinking water. You and me are not like that, of course. We’re sensible people who believe in science. That’s why climate change denial is different when we do it.

    They definitely don’t like to be asked why they’re not as upset by the death of 1,200 people by flooding in South Asia as they were about the 70 fatalities in Texas during Hurricaine Harvey that same week. That falls into the realm of “things that are true but unhelpful”.

    It’s easy to bargain with reality when your own appears unchanged. Yesterday, while people in the Gulf of Mexico were scrambling for shelter from two superstorms, I was eating spaghetti with friends in a chain restaurant in a nice, safe country in northern Europe, confessing a combination of guilt and relief that the worst effects of man-made climate change will not reach us for decades.

    This is an awful thought to entertain, so awful that it’s tempting simply to claim you’re not having it, finish your carbonara and avoid the issue. Table it for another day. Decide that maybe Jesus just loves you and your friends and family a little bit more than he loves the millions of men, women and children facing death from heat stress in Indo-China in the coming decade. Decide that maybe you deserve to survive – of course, everyone deserves to survive, but maybe you deserve it a little bit more.

    The trouble is that this attitude goes right to the top. A devastating investigation by Evan Osnos of the New Yorker magazine in January revealed how many of America’s wealthiest families are building themselves bunkers and putting escape plans in place for when the world as they know it ends.

    The sort of people who attend Davos did not get there by failing fifth-grade science. They know full well what’s coming down the tracks, which is why they plan not to be standing there when it hits. Whatever happens, they can be reasonably certain that they’ll have access to food, medicine and air conditioning. They inhabit a different planet, so they are prepared to gild their nihilism with the ashes of the one the rest of us still have to live on. The only thing more dangerous than climate change denial is climate change acceptance on the part of those who could, instead, choose action.

    Reply
    • bostonblorp

       /  September 14, 2017

      It’s easy to pillory the ultra-rich but I would point many more fingers farther down the economic ladder. I have friends who are highly educated in the sciences but who don’t think twice about flying with their families to some far-off destination twice a year for vacation.

      They seem to think being liberal, angry at Trump, and believing in climate change is somehow enough. They are unwilling or incapable of sacrifice much less trivial lifestyle change.

      Reply
      • Especially in the US, the ultra-rich have the power to massively influence the political process and set societal norms. The “modestly wealthy” do not have such ability, although I still agree on the self-delusion and hypocrisy of such people flying to far off vacations. Kevin Anderson, the climate scientist, takes how own colleagues to task for such carbon dioxide extravagance. He does not fly any more.

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  September 14, 2017

        “They seem to think being liberal, angry at Trump, and believing in climate change is somehow enough. They are unwilling or incapable of sacrifice much less trivial lifestyle change.”

        It’s a sort of ‘fashion’. See a lot of that in the Bay Area. See a lot of positive, active awareness, too, though in my observation the upper-middle economic strata are more concerned with appearance rather than reality. Driving gasoline-powered vehicles, poorly parking and taking up more than one space, causing other vehicles to circle and circle looking for a spot, all the while fumigating the environment. Lots of lifestyle chasing. Two 100+ degree daze got people talking; remains to be seen if action will follow talk.

        Reply
        • Everybody is a hypocrite at some level. Even if one is capable of stopping flying, eating meat, driving an ICE car tomorrow, one’s spouse most likely is not. So I look at it as conscience-raising process. So one adopts measures today, and as one’s understanding increases, adopt more measures. Will that work? Will the change happen fast enough? It might, but I suspect not. What is the alternative? A massive change in worldwide government that forces the necessary changes on people in a very short timeframe? What are the chances of that happening? That being said, it is most likely true that if the human species is able to dodge this bullet it will be because of change in the conscience in the world’s people from the bottom up. Top down change could only occur after a worldwide catastrophe. The forces of inertia are most powerful; human inertia as well as climate change inertia.

        • eleggua

           /  September 15, 2017

          “That being said, it is most likely true that if the human species is able to dodge this bullet it will be because of change in the conscience in the world’s people from the bottom up.”

          Yes. Thank you for putting all of what you’ve written above so well and so gently.

    • eleggua

       /  September 14, 2017

      Reply
  73. eleggua

     /  September 14, 2017

    Glencore is selling part of its stake in the 19.5% of Rosneft that they co-purchased earlier this year. The buyer: private Chinese conglomerate.

    Again, a 19% stake in Rosneft was mentioned in the Chris Steel dossier as being offered to Trimp and Co. (specifically, Carter Page handled the offer) for compliance in elimating sanctions. A few months later, 19.5% stake is sold; the money trail disappears in the Caymans. Nine months later, Glencore dumps most of it share. Hmmmmm; wtf is going on?

    ‘ Glencore to sell big stake in Rosneft’
    14 September 2017

    https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/companies/2017-09-14-glencore-to-sell-big-stake-in-rosneft/

    “Nine months after surprising the world with an $11bn venture to buy a stake in Russia’s state oil company, Glencore is selling most of it and emerging from the deal with a valuable crude supply contract and political ties in Moscow burnished.

    The companies announced on Friday that the Glencore-Qatar consortium would sell the bulk of its stake in Rosneft to CEFC China Energy, a little-known but rapidly expanding Chinese conglomerate.

    CEFC would become the third-largest shareholder in Russia’s state oil champion after the Russian state and BP, while the Qatar Investment Authority would retain a 4.7% stake.

    Glencore would be left with a stake of just 0.5%, but will retain a prized side deal to trade 220,000 barrels a day of oil from Rosneft.

    “By means of essentially a political favour to Moscow, they’re able to secure for themselves a significant quantity of material to feed into their trading business at a time when other traders are currently finding this an extremely difficult market,” Paul Gait, an analyst at Sanford C Bernstein in London, said.

    What is more, the Swiss-based company has cemented its political ties in one of the world’s top producers of commodities.

    For his role in the Rosneft privatisation deal, CEO Ivan Glasenberg was awarded Russia’s Order of Friendship by President Vladimir Putin…..”

    Reply
  74. eleggua

     /  September 14, 2017

    Noise about prosecuting Comey is just another smoke screen, trying to divert the attention of and away from the Mueller probe.

    Reply
  75. wharf rat

     /  September 14, 2017

    Tropical Storm Norma Forms, May Threaten Baja California Next Week
    https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-hurricane-norma-eastern-pacific-baja-california

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 14, 2017

      Max is not a hurricane. CBS is incorrect. There’s a warning but for hurricane.

      “The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings west of Acapulco and has replaced the Hurricane Warning from east of Acapulco to Punta Maldonado with a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watch has also been discontinued.

      Max is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later tonight and dissipate over southern Mexico on Friday.”

      However, Norma may increase to hurricane strength.
      “Norma could become a hurricane by late Friday.”

      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?cone#contents

      “…MAX MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO… …HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA… ”

      Drenching rains forecast for Oaxaca, a week after 8.1 earthquake. Landslide/mudslide danger imminent.

      “RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
      of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican state of Guerrero and western
      portions of the state of Oaxaca. Maximum amounts locally in excess
      of 20 inches are possible over coastal areas of Guerrero. These
      torrential rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and
      mudslides.”

      Reply
    • Anne

       /  September 14, 2017

      Meanwhile, in the Atlantic two disturbances are steadily organising into likely tropical depressions. The likelihood has been increasing all day, although there is no indication yet of how strong they will be. Worth keeping an eye on.

      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  September 15, 2017

        #2 shows tightening. 80% chance of developing into a hurricane.

        Reply
      • eleggua

         /  September 15, 2017

        “The likelihood has been increasing all day”

        And #2 has jumped to 90% in the minutes since posting the above.

        Reply
  76. wharf rat

     /  September 14, 2017

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-14/irma-displaces-world-s-best-quant-now-he-s-on-a-climate-mission

    Irma Displaces World’s Best Quant. Now He’s on a Climate Mission

    ‘Did the Math’

    “To make people listen, sometimes you have to put it in economic terms,” Vogel said in an interview at Bloomberg offices in New York on Sept. 12. “If there was no rule about throwing trash in a landfill, you’d throw it in a neighbor’s yard. That’s what this is, people just throwing out trash. And it’s causing hundreds of billions in damage.”

    Vogel promotes his research on the drivers and costs of climate change and advocates for solutions through his charity, the VoLo Foundation. Though he speaks about his numbers-heavy findings in a way that verges on a foreign language, all it takes is basic multiplication to prove climate change is man-made, he said.

    As a quantitative thinker, Vogel isn’t one to accept an opinion without first seeing the data. Two years ago, he decided to do just that with the science surrounding climate change. Among several exercises, he downloaded raw data from reported oil and coal consumption. He then calculated the carbon output with each ton of substance burned, and matched it with corresponding rising levels of carbon in the atmosphere.
    The numbers were indisputable, he said. Humans were causing the climate to change.

    Reply
  77. Andy_in_SD

     /  September 15, 2017

    Holy crap. Has anyone else noticed this ginormous fire complex near the US / Canada border? The smoke pile looks like a freaking volcano.

    http://www.arctic.io/explorer/24/2017-09-13/5-N47.96191-W97.86621

    Reply
  78. Leland Palmer

     /  September 15, 2017

    Wow, that’s gigantic, looks like. Seems to be mostly in Idaho?

    The carbon monoxide map from yesterday shows huge fires:

    https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/13/1200Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=cosc/orthographic=-121.83,49.39,2167/loc=-114.080,49.183

    Reply
  79. Suzanne

     /  September 15, 2017

    Hi everyone. Power on for the first time in 5 days. Irma was rough.lots and lots of tornado warnings during the storm….but 5 days without electricity in this heat…was tough.

    Is everything okay with Robert? Surprised to see no new posts or updates in a week.
    Hope all the Scribblers who were in the path of Irma are well.

    Reply
    • Good to hear from you, Suzanne!

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 15, 2017

      Good to hear you’re ok. 5 daze in that heat and humidity with no power: ugh.

      Robert periodically has things going on elsewhere that don’t allow for new posts/updates. Likely he is ok. His last tweet was a few daze ago, on the 11th.

      Reply
  80. Suzanne

     /  September 15, 2017

    Rare footage appears to show melting permafrost on the Tibetan plateau…

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 15, 2017

      Possibly thermokarst, say National Geographic. (SCMP are out of Hong Kong; owned by Jack Ma’s Alibaba.)

      ‘See Bizarre ‘Lava-Like’ Landslide Tear Through Hillside’
      September 12, 2017

      http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/09/permafrost-thaw-landslide-tibet-video-spd/

      “…Video recently went viral on Chinese social media sites Weibo and WeChat showing a river of mud and grass moving through what social media users recognized as the Dimye village on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau on September 7….

      Since the video began circulating on international social media accounts, many have speculated that the flow was caused by the melting of permafrost, or soil that’s normally frozen year-round. This kind of melting and the oddly pockmarked landforms that it creates are known as thermokarst….

      “Say you take a pork chop out of the freezer—it won’t melt away. It will shift from a frozen state to a thawed state,” said Sarah Godsey, a professor at Idaho State University who has studied permafrost melt in Alaska. “But if that pork chop was 50 percent ice, you’d have a different story. Ice content is really important.”

      Thermokarst has been observed previously in the Qinhai-Tiber Plateau. A study published in the journal Scientific Reports noted in May that desertification in the region was contributing to permafrost thaw….”

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  September 15, 2017

        Keeping in mind:

        “Scientists say that it’s impossible to decisively determine what caused the landslide from the video alone.

        Without obvious chunks of frozen material visible in the video, it’s unclear whether permafrost in the area has thawed, according to McKinnon.”

        Reply
  81. wharf rat

     /  September 15, 2017

    A vast ‘wind power hub’ could supply 70 to 100 million people with renewable energy

    When it comes to wind energy Denmark is a major player, able to call on a wealth of expertise and experience. Only this week, for example, Denmark headquartered Dong Energy was awarded the contract to build the world’s largest offshore wind farm, Hornsea Project Two, off the coast of the U.K.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/15/a-vast-wind-power-hub-could-supply-70-to-100-million-people-with-renewable-energy.html

    Reply
  82. eleggua

     /  September 15, 2017

    Trump (lies) contradicts himself on Irma.

    ‘Trump weighs in on climate change: Hey, there have been big hurricanes before’
    September 14, 2017

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/09/14/trump-weighs-in-on-climate-change-hey-there-have-been-big-hurricanes-before/

    “…When Hurricane Harvey threatened Texas, Trump tweeted that “many people” were saying that it was “the worst storm/hurricane they have ever seen.”…

    When Irma neared Florida, that became the strongest storm people had seen.

    Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
    Hurricane looks like largest ever recorded in the Atlantic!
    3:53 AM – Sep 6, 2017

    ….Trump visited Florida on Thursday to view the damage wrought by Irma. On the way back to Washington, he was asked about a relationship between hurricanes and climate change.

    His response? “We’ve had bigger storms than this,” according to The Post’s David Nakamura. Trump pointed out storms a century ago that also did enormous damage as a way of playing down the relationship between climate and this year’s storms….

    Trump’s argument against the role of climate change isn’t much of an argument. It’s a common one, in fact, among those who want to play down the negative effects of global warming: Since there was bad weather in the past, there’s nothing noteworthy about the unusually bad weather of the present. This is a sort of all-weather-matters line of thinking, which becomes fairly ridiculous when extrapolated into other contexts. The body count from a mysterious new toxin is important even if it hasn’t matched that from the plague.

    Especially if you’ve spent the past two weeks on Twitter pointing out all the people killed by the toxin. We’re past expecting rhetorical consistency from Trump at this point, but he can’t have it both ways. Either he gets to enjoy the ratings bonanza of the most powerful hurricane and the most precipitation in history — or he gets to play down those events as unimportant to defend his politics on climate.

    In this case, we’d support his doing the former.”

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 15, 2017

      ‘Trump dismisses climate change question by contradicting himself on hurricanes’
      September 14, 2017

      http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/14/politics/trump-climate-change-hurricanes/index.html

      “…”If you go back into the 1930s and the 1940s, and you take a look, we’ve had storms over the years that have been bigger than this,” Trump said. “If you go back into the teens, you’ll see storms that were as big or bigger. So we did have two horrific storms, epic storms, but if you go back into the ’30s and ’40s, and you go back into the teens, you’ll see storms that were very similar and even bigger, OK?”…”

      Ok? Ok? OK? OK?!?

      Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 15, 2017

      Reply
  83. eleggua

     /  September 15, 2017

    Rick Scott: Unsure or just unwillingly to admit the truth?

    ‘Florida governor remains unsure about climate change after Hurricane Irma’
    09/14/2017

    http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2017/09/14/florida-governor-remains-unsure-about-climate-change-after-hurricane-irma-114498

    “…“Clearly our environment changes all the time, and whether that’s cycles we’re going through or whether that’s man-made, I wouldn’t be able to tell you which one it is,” Scott said after twice touring the storm-ravaged Florida Keys this week. “But I can tell you this: We ought to go solve problems. I know we have beach renourishment issues. I know we have flood-mitigation issues.”…

    …other Republicans, many from South Florida — including Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Giménez and Reps. Carlos Curbelo and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen — say man-made climate change is real and needs to be taken seriously.

    Nelson said it was ironic that climate-change deniers don’t believe the majority of climate scientists about global warming, but they rely on hurricane forecasts that the scientists have produced….:

    Reply
  84. eleggua

     /  September 15, 2017

    Mexico’s west coast drenched by Max; same area where the 8.1 earthquake hit end of last week.

    ‘Tropical Storm Max hits southern Mexico coast’
    Sep 15, 2017

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-max-hits-southern-mexico-coast/

    “…The U.S. National Hurricane Center had earlier issued a hurricane warning for the coastline between Zihuatanejo and Punta Maldonado, and said the storm could bring “life-threatening flash floods and rainfall” to Guerrero and Oaxaca states.

    The center said the rapidly weakening Max should become a tropical depression in the coming hours before dissipating early Friday. The storm made landfall as a Category 1 storm and is forecast near the eastern Guerrero coastline….”

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 17, 2017

      Max was a hurricane.

      ‘Wind and rain like they had never seen
      Hurricane Max leaves 3,000 victims in Guerrero’
      September 16, 2017

      http://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/wind-and-rain-like-they-had-never-seen/

      “..In more than 70 years the people of San Marcos, Guerrero, have never seen a storm like it.

      Caros Villasana, who had watched the rapidly rising river near his home sweep away two of his neighbors who had come to help him repair a wall that was being damaged by the water.

      The wall fell and both were carried away. One grabbed a tree trunk and survived but the second disappeared in the current. The man’s body was later retrieved two kilometers downstream; he is one of the hurricane’s two fatalities.

      Villasana lost everything to the water — containers of corn, a refrigerator, a bed, a brand new washing machine and even his 12 pigs. He and his neighbors said they had never seen so much water or winds so strong.

      Max touched land Thursday afternoon about 4:00pm as a Category 1 hurricane and left more than 1,500 homes damaged, hundreds of towns flooded and without communications, crops lost, highways closed, 400 people displaced and a region in paralysis.

      By four o’clock, when Max made landfall between San Marcos and Cruz Grande, the region was a mess and hundreds of residents had become victims. Poor farmers were poorer than before, highway access was cut, and so was electricity and telephone service.

      Many travelers were left stranded after slides and sinkholes closed sections of federal highway No. 200 between Acapulco and Pinotepa Nacional in Oaxaca.

      The worst stretch was between Cruz Grande and Copala, where at least one bridge was severely damaged.

      As of yesterday, Civil Protection officials were estimating that Hurricane Max left 3,000 victims in five municipalities in Guerrro alone.”

      Reply
  85. eleggua

     /  September 15, 2017

    Barbuda now entirely evacuated.

    ‘On tiny Barbuda, a 300-year-old civilization has been ‘extinguished’’
    ‘September 15, 2017

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/15/on-tiny-barbuda-a-300-year-old-civilization-has-been-extinguished/?tid=pm_local_pop

    “…Barbuda is barely 60 square miles.

    Hurricane Irma, the Category 5 tropical cyclone that swallowed it Sept. 6, was nearly 400 miles across.

    All 1,800 residents now are homeless, having been evacuated to the sister island of Antigua.

    “The damage is complete,” Ronald Sanders, Antigua and Barbuda’s ambassador to the United States, told PRI’s the Takeaway.

    “For the first time in 300 years,” he said, “there’s not a single living person on the island of Barbuda — a civilization that has existed on that island for over 300 years has now been extinguished.”…”

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 15, 2017

      They might come back to Barbuda. Island biogeography aka insular biogeography.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insular_biogeography

      “…The theory of insular biogeography proposes that the number of species found in an undisturbed insular environment (“island”) is determined by immigration and extinction. And further, that the isolated populations may follow different evolutionary routes, as shown by Darwin’s observation of finches in the Galapagos Islands. Immigration and emigration are affected by the distance of an island from a source of colonists (distance effect). Usually this source is the mainland, but it can also be other islands. Islands that are more isolated are less likely to receive immigrants than islands that are less isolated.

      The rate of extinction once a species manages to colonize an island is affected by island size; this is the species-area curve or effect. Larger islands contain larger habitat areas and opportunities for more different varieties of habitat. Larger habitat size reduces the probability of extinction due to chance events. Habitat heterogeneity increases the number of species that will be successful after immigration.

      Over time, the countervailing forces of extinction and immigration result in an equilibrium level of species richness.”

      Reply
  86. eleggua

     /  September 15, 2017

    From the Scripps Research Institute.

    ‘New Climate Risk Classification Created to Account for Potential “Existential” Threats

    Researchers identify a one-in-20 chance of temperature increase causing catastrophic damage or worse by 2050’

    Sep 14, 2017

    https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/new-climate-risk-classification-created-account-potential-existential-threats

    Reply
  87. eleggua

     /  September 15, 2017

    ‘How a photographer snapped this tragic photo of a seahorse lugging a Q-tip
    “I spend a lot of time underwater all over the world, and I see trash and debris and human waste all over the place.” ‘
    Sep 15, 2017

    https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/15/16314928/justin-hofman-seahorse-plastic-pollution-photography

    “It’s a photo that I wish didn’t exist but now that it does I want everyone to see it. What started as an opportunity to photograph a cute little sea horse turned into one of frustration and sadness as the incoming tide brought with it countless pieces of trash and sewage. This sea horse drifts long with the trash day in and day out as it rides the currents that flow along the Indonesian archipelago. This photo serves as an allegory for the current and future state of our oceans. What sort of future are we creating? How can your actions shape our planet?
    – Justin Hofman

    Reply
  88. eleggua

     /  September 15, 2017

    Reply
  89. I rarely post articles, but this Politico article (below) looks at an effect of CO2 that I have never seen coverage of.

    Does increased CO2 lead to less nutritious plants, “junk-food” with higher sugars but lower mineral nutrients? Dr. Loladze from the university of Nebraska is gathering evidence. From Politico:
    http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/09/13/food-nutrients-carbon-dioxide-000511

    Reply
    • Thanks Ed, anything non-warming CO2 related is VERY hard to get traction on, it tells us much about the reach of the denial industry. When I’m back at my office I’ll put some interesting refs up, but in a nutshell:
      Yes >co2 =
      > starch and < nutrients;
      pollen toxicity;
      ‘Interesting’ changes in especially weed growth;
      and this is only part of my list.

      Reply
      • Ed and Nigel64
        The pollen toxicity is no joke. I sent Ed’s article to my beekeeper friend (the one who lost 4 of his 21 hives this winter) because of the information on the goldenrod. Here is his response:

        “That is an interesting finding as Goldenrod is a prime protein source for bees at this time of year. I know from the bee program at NCSU that we have 2 different varieties here in NC which look very similar but are not. One type has long filamentous flowers that droop downwards, like a weeping willow or cherry in appearance at the tip. The other has fairly upright tight flowers coming off the central flower stalk. The former is the kind with the most food value and the latter is not, although it is of some use if they are “in a pinch” for food. A lot of the Goldenrod is found along streams and roadways where it has usually either been sprayed with chemicals or else is in water that carries pollutants from upstream locations.”

        Reply
  90. The assertion that Florida power was still working due to fossil fuels was wrong as this item from Inside Climate News detiles some solar power in some areas.

    Reply
  91. John Hamer

     /  September 16, 2017

    Love your work. Havn’t had any messages in 9-78. Interested in Jose. John Hamer Sent from Mail for Windows 10

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 17, 2017

      “Jose…not a huge threat but definitely something to keep an eye on…”

      Reply
      • eleggua

         /  September 17, 2017

        Round Two for the Caribbean.

        ‘Hurricane warnings expanded in anticipation of a stronger Maria’
        September 17, 2017

        http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article173811681.html

        “…Over the next three days, National Hurricane Center forecasters say Maria will likely intensify to a hurricane as it nears the Lesser Antilles Monday and Tuesday, although slower progress may spare the islands some of the strongest winds. By mid week, Maria could near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a major hurricane, which could come under hurricane warnings as early as tonight….

        …It’s too soon to tell Maria’s impacts to Florida or the U.S. coast. Early models show the storm moving toward Florida and up the east coast, but forecasts so far in advance can be hundreds of miles off….

        St. Martin and St. Bart’s, both pounded by Irma, were added Sunday to the list of islands now under hurricane watches. They include Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Saba, St. Eustatius, Anguilla, Barbados and St. Lucia.”

        …As it nears the coast, Hurricane Jose, now about 400 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras and headed toward the New England coast, could play a factor in where Maria goes. If Jose weakens the ridge steering the storm, it could allow Maria to take a track more to the northwest or north-northwest. If not, the storm will likely keep heading to the west-northwest.

        Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters said an autumn trough moving across the United States could also prevent the storm from moving out to sea.

        …Maria will become the seventh hurricane this season in what was expected to be an above average year, with five to nine hurricanes and two to five major storms predicted. But 2017 may end up easily beating that forecast with more than two months to go during the busiest part of the Atlantic season.”

        Reply
  92. Glad you posted this one.

    Reply
  93. Abel Adamski

     /  September 16, 2017

    One worth reading from Peter Sinclair
    https://climatecrocks.com/2017/09/15/killer-klowns-pruitts-short-list-for-epa-advisors-is-cartoon-villain-bad/

    EENews (registration required):

    Climate skeptics may soon join a key science advisory panel at U.S. EPA.

    A number of people who reject the findings of mainstream climate science are being considered by the Trump administration for spots on EPA’s Science Advisory Board, a voluntary but influential panel that reviews science used in environmental regulations.

    At least one nominee hopes to use a position on the board to challenge the science undergirding many environmental regulations. One has said in a statement that the world must “abandon this suicidal Global Warming crusade.” Another compared people concerned about climate change to “Aztecs who believed they could make rain by cutting out beating hearts.”

    EPA has submitted 132 names for public comment as possible members of the panel. About a dozen of them have made comments rejecting mainstream climate science. Many have connections to the fossil fuel industry or conservative think tanks, and some have received funding to attack the findings of mainstream scientists that humans are warming the globe at an unprecedented pace through the burning of fossil fuels.

    The selection of any of those researchers would be the beginning of a very different advisory board that would bear the hallmark of the Trump administration’s position on climate change, said Steve Milloy, an attorney and longtime EPA foe who worked on President Trump’s transition team for the agency.

    “Had some other Republican won the presidency and a swamp creature taken over the EPA, this would not be happening,” he said, “but thank God for Scott Pruitt that he’s got the courage to do this.”

    The Heartland Institute — a Chicago-based free-market think tank that pushes alternative climate science — nominated many of the current prospects.

    Reply
  94. Shawn Redmond

     /  September 16, 2017

    ROME, Sep 12 2017 (IPS) – Pressures on global land resources are now greater than ever, as a rapidly increasing population coupled with rising levels of consumption is placing ever-larger demands on the world’s land-based natural capital, warns a new United Nations report.

    Consumption of the earth’s natural reserves has doubled in the last 30 years, with a third of the planet’s land now severely degraded, adds the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) new report, launched on 12 September in Ordos, China during the Convention’s 13th summit (6-16 September 2017).

    “Each year, we lose 15 billion trees and 24 billion tonnes of fertile soil,” the UNCCD’s report The Global Land Outlook (GLO) says, adding that a significant proportion of managed and natural ecosystems are degrading and at further risk from climate change and biodiversity loss.
    http://www.ipsnews.net/2017/09/alert-nature-verge-bankruptcy/

    Reply
  95. Leland Palmer

     /  September 16, 2017

    Wow, the latest ECMWF shows then Tropical Storm Jose and a new minor hurricane dancing a square dance so si do off the East Coast, with the new hurricane pushing the remnants of Jose onto land right around North Carolina in nine or ten days.

    Strange days, indeed.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017091612&fh=108&xpos=0&ypos=40

    Of course this is 9 or 10 days away, so it’s not likely to happen. Trying to predict the effect of two hurricanes on each other seems very hard. This is all way too interesting.

    Reply
  96. Andy_in_SD

     /  September 16, 2017

    This is badd….

    TS Maria, soon to be Hurricane Maria following roughly Irma’s path.

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 17, 2017

      Levi / Tropical Tidbits says too early to call for U.S. – likely a week to 10 daze before any possbile hit there – but Lesser Antilles, BVI, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in direct line of impact and folks there should prep right now.

      Reply
    • bostonblorp

       /  September 18, 2017

      It’s looking to nail islands that Irma missed.. St. Croix, PR. St. Croix is currently being used as a staging area for recovery efforts on other islands nearby. Not good.

      Reply
  97. Greg

     /  September 17, 2017

    Fires in Montana:
    “At monitoring stations scattered around the county, we measure the mass of fine particulate in the smoke. The National Ambient Air Quality Standard for fine particulate matter averaged over 24 hours is 35 micrograms in a cubic meter of air. Our monitor in Seeley Lake is registering 1,000, as high as the machine goes. It was built without the expectation of ever measuring such concentrations.”
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/amid-montanas-wildfires-its-my-job-to-help-people-breathe/2017/09/15/8233bd74-995e-11e7-82e4-f1076f6d6152_story.html

    Reply
  98. eleggua

     /  September 17, 2017

    ‘U.S. Still Out of Paris Climate Agreement, Despite Conflicting Reports’
    September 16, 2017

    http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/16/551551083/u-s-still-out-of-paris-climate-agreement-after-conflicting-reports

    “…”There has been no change in the United States’ position on the Paris agreement. As the President has made abundantly clear, the United States is withdrawing unless we can re-enter on terms that are more favorable to our country,” the White House said in a statement Saturday….”

    Reply
  99. eleggua

     /  September 17, 2017

    “People talk about the wind that came through here as it it were alive, as if it come from another world.”

    Reply
  100. eleggua

     /  September 17, 2017

    ‘How Florida’s Native Americans Predicted and Survived Hurricanes
    Betty Osceola, a member of the Miccosukee tribe and Panther clan, shared several stories about her family’s own experiences dealing with hurricanes and tornadoes in South Florida’
    9.13.17

    http://therealnews.com/t2/story:19991:How-Florida%27s-Native-Americans-Predicted-and-Survived-Hurricanes

    “…”Our ancestors the Seminole and Miccosukee were taught not to fear the Hurricane. The generations of our people today need to remember and to share the stories with our younger generations so they too will respect and love the natural world.”….

    …Grandpa started quickly poling the canoe towards a Tree Island. Grandpa saw the clouds and saw the Tornado forming. He beached the canoe up on the Tree Island, and made them get out. He flipped the canoe over, then he lifted one side up far enough for them to get under the canoe. As they were under the canoe the rain got harder and it got windy. Mom remembered water coming in under the canoe and bugs crawling on them. As quickly as the rain and wind came it went. Grandpa with their help pushed the canoe back over and back into the water. Where they could continue on their way home. The canoe and her grandfather’s quick thinking protected them.”…”

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 17, 2017

      “The canoe…protected them.” “…people can….learn from it.”

      ‘Hurricane Irma unearths canoe in Indian River in Brevard’
      September 14, 2017

      https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/hurricane-irma/ancient-canoe-found-on-indian-river-set-to-be-preserved-officials-say

      “Hurricane Irma uncovered a piece of history from the bottom of the Indian River when a dugout canoe was brought to the surface.

      Officials from the Florida Department of State’s Bureau of Archeological Research in the Division of Historical Resources said they are working to preserve the the canoe, estimated to weigh 600 to 700 pounds.

      Randy Lathrop, of Cocoa, shared the news of his discovery on Facebook with his friends.

      “I got to it before it was picked up by the county with all the other storm debris and placed in a landfill. I’ll certainly keep everyone updated on this progress, promise,” he said in his Facebook post.

      The Indian River is a part of the Sovereign Submerged Lands, meaning all objects of intrinsic historical or archaeological value abandoned on state-owned lands are owned by the state with the title vested in the Division of Historical Resources, officials said.

      Lathrop spotted the dugout cypress tree canoe when he was bicycling and observing damage from Hurricane Irma.

      “And I was like, ‘That can’t be,'” Lathrop said.

      This unlikely archaeologist knew he had to save the canoe, as a front loader was just down the street clearing debris.

      “Could have very well ended up under a pile of trash or in a landfill, so we’re just happy we were able to rescue history,” he added.

      A state spokesperson said the canoe is still being evaluated, but they’ve already noticed square nails, remnants of paint chips and the fact that it was likely buried and unexposed to the elements in the river.

      The canoe is being stored underwater not far from where it was found until that preservation process can get underway.

      A state spokesperson added that they hope to keep the canoe in the community where it was discovered so people can enjoy it and learn from it. “

      Reply
  101. redskylite

     /  September 17, 2017

    At last after years of “journalist” David Rose, fueled by such people as Judith Curry the Mail has been found guilty of “fake news” on climate reporting by the British Press watchdog. “Better late than never”. Hope the watchdog continues stamping on rubbish reports on climate matters and that the chastisement gets well publicized, so people are aware they are being mislead and hoodwinked.

    A self-policing group within the British news industry has forced the tabloid The Mail on Sunday to acknowledge that an article it published asserting that climate researchers in the United States had manipulated data was inaccurate and misleading.

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  September 17, 2017

      In a Similar vein
      http://www.kxlf.com/story/36379878/sachs-big-oil-will-have-to-pay-up-like-big-tobacco
      Sachs: Big Oil will have to pay up, like Big Tobacco
      Posted: Sep 16, 2017 9:51 AM
      Updated: Sep 16, 2017 9:51 AM
      By Jeffrey Sachs

      Editor’s note: Jeffrey Sachs is a professor and director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his.

      (CNN) — Here is a message to investors in the oil industry, whether pension and insurance funds, university endowments, hedge funds or other asset managers: Your investments are going to sour. The growing devastation caused by climate change, as seen this month in Texas, Florida and the Caribbean, are going to blow a hole in your fossil-fuel portfolio.

      Not only will the companies you own suffer as society begins to abandon fossil fuels in earnest, they will also be dragged through the courts here and abroad for their long-standing malfeasance and denial of what they have done to the world.
      .
      .
      Consider, for example, the World Weather Attribution (WWA) project. This is an effort by a consortium of scientific institutions, including the University of Oxford Environmental Change Institute, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, the University of Melbourne and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.

      This project has recently shown, that human-induced climate change dramatically raised the likelihood of the record-breaking heat wave in western Europe this summer. The team found that climate change “made the intensity and frequency of such extreme heat at least twice as likely in Belgium, at least four times as likely in France, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and central England and at least 10 times as likely in Portugal and Spain.”

      The project is now analyzing whether human-induced global warming raised the likelihood of the rainfall brought by Harvey.
      .
      .
      Many Caribbean islands were devastated by Irma, and their leaders are appealing for aid. Soon, the cries around the world will change to a call for “compensation” or “civil damages” instead of just aid.

      When climate justice comes — and it will — those who have been in denial will pay a heavy price. And those who have invested in companies that behaved recklessly and irresponsibly will share the heavy losses on that day of reckoning.

      TM & © 2017 Cable News Network, Inc., a Time Warner Company. All rights reserved.

      Reply
      • Leland Palmer

         /  September 18, 2017

        Oh, yes, hurry the day that the fossil fuel corporations have to start paying for the damage they are causing.

        But what about the major banks like JPMorgan Chase that have benefited from more than a century of fossil fuel profits?

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JPMorgan_Chase

        And what about the super rich dynasties like the Rockefeller family, that may have retained corporate control of both JPMorgan Chase and ExxonMobil, with combined assets of maybe 3-4 trillion dollars?

        And what about a financial system so complex and opaque that understanding who controls what is difficult or impossible? How can we punish the guilty when they hide so effectively?

        Reply
        • eleggua

           /  September 18, 2017

          Let’s not punish the people but instead let’s banish their systems. The emperor wears no clothes; the naked cannot hide. Transparency leading to fair and even redistribution of insane ‘wealth’ in service of solutions.

          “(Our Buckminster) Fuller was concerned about sustainability and human survival under the existing socio-economic system, yet remained optimistic about humanity’s future. Defining wealth in terms of knowledge, as the “technological ability to protect, nurture, support, and accommodate all growth needs of life,” his analysis of the condition of “Spaceship Earth” caused him to conclude that at a certain time during the 1970s, humanity had attained an unprecedented state. He was convinced that the accumulation of relevant knowledge, combined with the quantities of major recyclable resources that had already been extracted from the earth, had attained a critical level, such that competition for necessities had become unnecessary. Cooperation had become the optimum survival strategy. He declared: “selfishness is unnecessary and hence-forth unrationalizable…. War is obsolete.” He criticized previous utopian schemes as too exclusive, and thought this was a major source of their failure. To work, he thought that a utopia needed to include everyone.”

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buckminster_Fuller

          8-billion billionaires. Simple solution to wealth redistribution.

        • eleggua

           /  September 18, 2017

          ‘Kushner’s need for cash after ‘disastrous’ NY tower purchase will ensnare president: Trump biographer’
          17 Sep 2017

          http://www.rawstory.com/2017/09/kushners-need-for-cash-after-disastrous-ny-tower-purchase-will-ensnare-president-trump-biographer/

          “…Discussing a report that Kushner’s purchase of a New York skyscraper has put his family in a financial hole, author Tim O’Brien was asked if Kushner’s need for quick cash has put the White House in jeopardy….”

        • eleggua

           /  September 18, 2017

          The skyscraper is the formerly-named Tishman Building, on Fifth Avenue in midtown Manhattan, purchased ten years ago by Kushner Properties. The purchase was a grand folly; mortage due in a year-and-a-half and Kushner Properties is essentially broke.

        • eleggua

           /  September 18, 2017

          “Kushner Companies purchased 666 Fifth Avenue in 2007 for $1.8 billion, the most expensive single property purchase in US history at the time”

          This excellent, lengthy Bloomberg article below completely autopsies Kusher’s follies and how that all directly connects to Trump. Ivanka and Jared = ‘a marriage of state’? Marriage of state didn’t go well for the Trojans; apparently not going well for the Trumps.

          ‘Kushners’ China Deal Flop Was Part of Much Bigger Hunt for Cash’
          August 31, 2017

          https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-kushners-china-deal-flop-was-part-of-much-bigger-hunt-for-cash/

          “….Before Trump began his rise to the presidency and the 36-year-old Kushner became his senior adviser, 666 Fifth Avenue struggled to attract serious offers. Meetings the Kushners requested were often rejected. After Trump’s nomination, billions of dollars in Asian and Middle Eastern money came under discussion. Two potential deals that made it to advanced stages, with China’sAnbang Insurance Group and a top Qatari sheikh, fell apart….

          The Kushners have reason to look far afield. Even after selling big sections of 666 Fifth in 2011, they have increased their own vulnerability by borrowing more money for other deals, people close to the company say. After a refinancing, the deed to 666 Fifth sits in an escrow account, ready to be seized by lenders in a default, an action indicating their trust has grown thin. The mortgage will become even more of a burden after a scheduled jump in interest rates in December. Under some dire circumstances, guarantees in the refinancing agreement could even give lenders the ability to go after the family’s other assets—many of which are also underpinned by debt….

          Federal investigators know that Kushner met with then-Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak in Trump Tower last December and later met with Sergey Gorkov, head of the Kremlin-controlled VEB bank in two meetings that he didn’t, at first, disclose publicly or on his application for his national-security clearance. After those meetings became public, Kushner and the White House said the contacts were made in his role as a Trump adviser and didn’t involve discussion of his family business. But VEB and a spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin described the meetings quite differently, noted Adam Schiff of California, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee. They said that Kushner was there in his capacity as head of his family’s real estate business. Investigators say they are studying those accounts with keen interest.

          “I think it is part of a pattern of outreach to Russian financial interests, which are essentially Vladimir Putin and his oligarch circle, by Trump family members,” said Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, a Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee. “The financial dealings are important because we know that the Russian playbook is to engage and compromise foreign leaders.” He added, “Whether this meeting and contact are significant remains to be understood.””

    • eleggua

       /  September 17, 2017

      (If you don’t get the reference, internet search “the battle of cable street”.
      The past repeats and the tabloids are here to fuel the flames.)

      Reply
    • Leland Palmer

       /  September 18, 2017

      Oh, I doubt that it’s brain wiring that’s causing global warming. Seems obvious that it’s fossil fuel use. These corporate apologists will say anything to shift the blame, IMO.

      There’s a minor amount of truth in this article, and a major amount of encouragement of apathy and confusion. So, focus on soot and adaptation, the article says.

      Screw that. Rip the fossil fuel corporations financial hearts out in the courts, IMO.

      Bankrupt fossil fuel corporations in the courts with climate change lawsuits. Then seize their assets, and transform some of those assets into carbon negative BECCS power plants.

      Reply
  102. Jacque

     /  September 17, 2017

    A chilling on-the-ground Op-Ed report from an air quality specialist with the Missoula City-County Health Department. She is a native Montanan: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/amid-montanas-wildfires-its-my-job-to-help-people-breathe/2017/09/15/8233bd74-995e-11e7-82e4-f1076f6d6152_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.ccf2a304d3cf ‘…every night, smoke fills the valley, building by the hour and creating dangerous breathing conditions the likes of which we have never seen. To our south, the Lolo Peak Fire sends daily smoke to the Bitterroot Valley, creating frequently hazardous, unbreathable air for its residents. Never have we seen so many wildfires so close to home for so many weeks…the smoke in Seeley Lake thickens on a daily basis… we send out an official recommendation that residents leave the area until the smoke clears. Few take our advice. Few have anywhere to go.”

    One commentor said, “Many of us here in Western Montana have been “chasing green” – camping where breathable air is indicated by Green dots on the air quality map online – but even those of us with the time, money and campers to leave have had a hard time finding green for very long. What is green one day is red or orange the next. We`ve driven for hundreds of miles this summer in search of air, burning fossil fuels in the process and adding to the very problem we’ve tried to escape.”

    I write this post, knowing that sooner rather than later, it will be southern Utah’s turn for massive forest fires and their accompanying smoke – our county was already heavily affected by the Brian Head fire mid-June to mid-July. This is an area that thinks its income comes from cattle ranching, but in reality depends much more on tourism. I have invested in anti-pollution, military grade N99 respirators. Prepare. Adapt.

    Reply
  103. eleggua

     /  September 17, 2017

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 17, 2017

      From the ‘The Wreck of the Hesperus’, Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, 1842

      “…Then up and spake an old Sailòr,
      Had sailed to the Spanish Main,
      “I pray thee, put into yonder port,
      For I fear a hurricane.

      “Last night, the moon had a golden ring,
      And to-night no moon we see!”
      The skipper, he blew a whiff from his pipe,
      And a scornful laugh laughed he….”

      “…And ever the fitful gusts between
      A sound came from the land;
      It was the sound of the trampling surf
      On the rocks and the hard sea-sand.

      The breakers were right beneath her bows,
      She drifted a dreary wreck,
      And a whooping billow swept the crew
      Like icicles from her deck.

      She struck where the white and fleecy waves
      Looked soft as carded wool,
      But the cruel rocks, they gored her side
      Like the horns of an angry bull…”

      Reply
  104. Andy_in_SD

     /  September 17, 2017

    This satellite shot shows the Amazon being burned away for farms, from yesterdays pass.

    http://www.arctic.io/explorer/24/2017-09-16/7-S8.00464-W54.49438

    Reply
  105. Anne

     /  September 17, 2017

    She moves like she don’t care
    Smooth as silk, cool as air
    Ooh it makes you wanna cry

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 18, 2017

      “I’ve just met a girl named Maria,
      And suddenly that name
      Will never be the same ”

      “Maria is now classified as a major storm, and “additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,” the National Hurricane Center says.”

      Reply
  106. eleggua

     /  September 18, 2017

    ‘A neural link between generosity and happiness’

    https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15964

    Soyoung Q. Park, Thorsten Kahnt, Azade Dogan, Sabrina Strang, Ernst Fehr & Philippe N. Tobler
    Nature Communications 8, Article number: 15964 (2017)
    Received: 21 October 2016 Accepted: 12 May 2017 Published online: 11 July 2017

    Reply
  107. Kassy

     /  September 18, 2017

    Decade of data shows FEMA flood maps missed 3 in 4 claims

    An analysis of flood claims in several southeast Houston suburbs from 1999-2009 found that the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s 100-year flood plain maps — the tool that U.S. officials use to determine both flood risk and insurance premiums — failed to capture 75 percent of flood damages from five serious floods, none of which reached the threshold of a 100-year event.

    “The takeaway from this study, which was borne out in Harvey, is that many losses occur in areas outside FEMA’s 100-year flood plain,” said study co-author Antonia Sebastian, a research associate at Rice’s Severe Storm Prediction, Education and Evacuation from Disasters (SSPEED) Center and a postdoctoral researcher at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.

    “What we’ve tried to show, both with this study and several others, is that it is possible to do better,” said lead author Russell Blessing, a Texas A&M-Galveston graduate student with joint appointments at the SSPEED Center and Texas A&M-Galveston’s Center for Texas Beaches and Shores. “There are innovative computational and hydrological tools available to build more predictive maps.”

    more on link:
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/09/170912170536.htm

    Reply
  108. Robert in New Orleans

     /  September 18, 2017

    Neil deGrasse Tyson says it might be “too late” to recover from climate change.

    http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/17/us/neil-degrasse-tyson-on-climate-change-cnntv/index.html

    Reply
    • eleggua

       /  September 18, 2017

      It’s not too late however drastic changes are inevitable. The future you’ve planned for does not exist.

      ” by engaging in debates over the existence of climate change, as opposed to discussions on how best to tackle it, the country was wasting valuable time and resources. ”

      Agree with ^that*.
      Fighting deniers (fighting anyone) is a waste of time, energy, intelligence, emotion and ‘time’.

      “…this is happening faster than our ability to respond. That could have huge economic consequences.””

      The economic consequences pale in comparision to the consequence to life. A sponge doesn’t care about economics; a polar bear doesn’t care about economics; saprophytic fungi, brown oaks, redwood trees, blue whales, pink dolphins, yellow-tailed woolly monkeys, green tree frogs, orangutans: none of them care about economics.

      Let us humans get with the real program not the human-centric one. That’s the directon forward into a better world for this planet: true co-operation and logical coevolution.

      Reply
  109. wharf rat

     /  September 18, 2017

    Hurricane Maria Rapidly Intensifying Near the Leeward Islands; Potentially Devastating Strike on Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Ahead

    https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-maria-lesser-antilles-northeast-caribbean-islands

    Reply

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