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Sandy-Like Situation Developing? Tropical System to Merge With Potential Record-Breaking Nor’Easter by Sunday.

It’s not yet predicted to be a so-called perfect storm. But a Sandy-like situation appears to be on tap for the U.S. Northeast this weekend. For the forecast weather coming down the pipe bears a distinctly odd combination of features similar to the climate change related hybrid hyperstorms we’ve seen during recent years. To be clear, the presently predicted hybrid storm is not expected to be as intensely ‘perfect’ as Sandy. But it could still be a record-breaker for parts of the Northeast with regards to October rainfall and minimum central pressure come Sunday.

Tropical System Predicted to Combine with a Nor’Easter

93 L isn’t even a tropical depression yet. But this stormy collection of clouds southeast of the Yucatan continues to gather and organize over warmer than normal waters. At this time, development into a tropical system appears more likely — with the National Hurricane Center predicting a 60 percent chance of storm development over the next 24 hours.

(93 L becomes more organized Southeast of the Yucatan on Friday. Image source: The National Hurricane Center.)

To the north, a very deep trough is poised to plunge down over the Eastern Seaboard of the United States. Another one of those high amplitude Jet Stream waves born of conditions related to a warming Arctic. And all across the storm’s projected path sea surface temperatures range between 1 and 4 degrees Celsius above the climatological average.

By Sunday, 93 L is predicted to be funneling into the southern section of this trough just east of Florida. Present model runs show the tropical storm transferring its warm energy northward into a low along the Arctic-originating frontal system over these warmer than normal waters — with potentially extreme results.

(Northern New England doesn’t have a record of a storm with pressures lower than 980 mb during late October. The present storm could intensify to pressures lower than 980 mb as it crosses over this region late Sunday — setting a new record. Image source: Tropical Tidbits.)

Forecasts are presently calling for one day rainfall amounts that could break records for New England. A swath from New Jersey through Eastern New York and western Maine could see between 2 and 8 inches of rainfall in a very short period. Meanwhile, atmospheric pressures could drop to near or below 980 mb as the storm moves north — a measure below 980 would be a new record for Southern New England in October (Sandy hit lower pressures during its Oct 29 New York landfall in 2012).

This is a climate change related movie that we’ve seen before. One that is, thankfully, predicted to be a bit less intense than Sandy this time. That said, those along the U.S. East Coast should keep a keen weather eye out as Arctic air moves over these warmer than normal waters and wraps in an energetic tropical system when the trough plunges south. Moist tropical air colliding with this Arctic mass over these warm, wet waters will create the potential to generate a powerful temperature and moisture dipole in a lifting atmosphere that could well cause this predicted storm to swiftly explode to record-shattering intensity.

RELATED STATEMENTS, UPDATES, AND INFORMATION:

Links:

The National Hurricane Center

New England May Get Record-Setting October Storm

Tropical Tidbits

Earth Nullschool

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38 Comments

  1. Scott

     /  October 27, 2017

    It’s been snowing all day in Saint Paul. The cold portion is more than living up to its end of the dipole bargain.

    Reply
    • Thanks for the report, Paul. Definitely some weirdness baked in. Models don’t show a storm with a Sandy level punch. But is likely to be hairy nonetheless.

      Reply
  2. Sheri

     /  October 27, 2017

    Robert, thanks, of course, for all the posts. Question: what is the reference no. 1 link for???

    Thanks Sheri

    Reply
  3. coloradobob

     /  October 27, 2017

    ” The Wine Fires”
    The first ones came months ago in Chile. It was the worst fire season they had ever seen. Then came Iberia . And next came California. . and now Italy.

    Reply
  4. coloradobob

     /  October 27, 2017

    Wine and olive oil . Get ready for the new prices.

    Reply
    • coloradobob

       /  October 28, 2017

      Oracle_De_Atlantis coloradobob1 • 17 minutes ago
      So the earth is not sparing the oil in the wine?

      No, man is not sparing anything. , only the fiction of money . Which does not appear in the record at all.

      Reply
  5. Robert in New Orleans

     /  October 27, 2017

    Trump shows his true feelings about nature and indigenous Americans.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-to-shrink-tribal-bears-ears-national-monument-hatch-says/

    Reply
  6. Robert in New Orleans

     /  October 28, 2017

    Reply
  7. coloradobob

     /  October 28, 2017

    RS , here you go ……………… I learned my lesson .

    Lessons in communicating climate change, from a scientist and Evangelical Christian

    Katharine Hayhoe hails from Toronto. Growing up in Canada, she never doubted the reality of climate change. When she entered graduate school to study atmospheric science, she could never have guessed that she would eventually land in Texas—where, by this count, just over half the population accepts that humans are causing global warming. (Nationally, that number stands at 68 percent, according to a March 2017 Gallup poll, up from 49 percent in 2011.) Nor could she have known just how much of her time she would spend talking with climate change skeptics.

    https://www.cjr.org/special_report/texas-katharine-hayhoe.php

    Reply
    • Thanks for this, Bob. I know your heart’s in the right place. I just think that it’s good to try a bit of self moderation from time to time. We, as individuals are not what’s important here. And Katherine has been very helpful overall in Texas.

      Maybe just going back and saying that though you disagree with some of what she says, you respect her helpful work overall?

      Thanks for posting. And warmest regards to you.

      –R

      Reply
    • Nice quote from this article:

      “Some scientists might balk at speaking about their own religious beliefs. But Hayhoe’s willingness to do so makes her an especially valuable communicator in the South, where climate change deniers are disproportionately conservative Christians.”

      Reply
  8. coloradobob

     /  October 28, 2017

    The Wine Fires ………..
    This not a small idea. we should all look around , and run this back in time. It was coming long before this fall.

    Reply
  9. coloradobob

     /  October 28, 2017

    And in the end no one ever wrote a post with such a powerful name.
    The Wine Fires.

    That is a book title.

    And all of us could write it. I say all this because because this is still the greatest research team in the world.

    Reply
  10. coloradobob

     /  October 28, 2017

    Mean while I’m broke down South of Dallas.

    Reply
  11. Vic

     /  October 28, 2017

    A freakish hailstorm in the Cordoba province of Argentina a couple of days ago saw more than 1.5m (4.9 feet) of hail accumulated in just 15 minutes.

    A motorcyclist sheltering under a tree became trapped in ice before eventually being rescued and treated for hypothermia.

    https://watchers.news/2017/10/27/extreme-hail-accumulations-in-cordoba-argentina/

    Reply
  12. Vic

     /  October 28, 2017

    Recent photos from near the Caribbean island of Roatan off the coast of Honduras.

    There’s a lot of wood in the mix. Possibly related to recent hurricanes ?

    Reply
  13. Abel Adamski

     /  October 28, 2017

    Hmm
    As RS alluded re the Oil Majors

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/bp-shell-oil-global-warming-5-degree-paris-climate-agreement-fossil-fuels-temperature-rise-a8022511.html

    BP and Shell planning for catastrophic 5°C global warming despite publicly backing Paris climate agreement

    Companies are trying to ‘have their oil and drink it’ by committing to 2°C in public while planning for much higher temperature rises, says shareholder campaign group, ShareAction

    Reply
    • Something from Desmog on this : https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/10/26/fossil-fuel-giants-shell-bp-barely-living-shareholder-climate-resolutions-report-finds ..The share of each company’s investment in low-carbon technologies is also a fraction of their business. BP’s low-carbon investments represent just 1.3 percent ($200 million) of its total capital expenditure while Shell has pledged to invest 3 percent ($1 billion per year) of its annual expenditure by 2020…..Shell has, in part, acknowledged this, stating that it “has no immediate plans to move to a net-zero portfolio over our investment horizon of 10-20 years”. And BP chief executive Bob Dudley has said recently that “we see oil and gas continuing to meet at least half of all demand for the next several decades.”.
      The most important part..The two oil giants’ executive incentives also continue to be weighted towards fossil fuel production. “This could incentivise executive behaviour that is misaligned with the long-term interests of shareholders,” the report states. .
      Good old fashioned greed !!!

      Reply
    • Alright, for lack of a better phrase, it’s still a bit of a shell game going on here. The increases in oil company investments in renewables is somewhat positive. But we should be concerned about potential shelving of new energy source companies and manipulation on the part of corporations vulnerable to conflicts of interest. This is something where we need to thread the needle with messaging — enabling positive responses while still holding bad action to account. There are some shades of gray here — Total appears to be genuinely supporting renewables. Shell, I have a concern about.

      Reply
  1. Unimaginable biodiversity loss, placing the cascading Anthropocene Extinction in top gear. – This is a site address blog or two places at the same time, while also being in space

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