The globe should be cooling relative to recent and near record warm summer temperatures. But it isn’t. La Nina like conditions, the Pacific Ocean pattern that generally precipitates globally cooler weather, is again spreading across the Equatorial Pacific. Yet if you’re living in Dallas, Texas, or many other places across the globe, you wouldn’t know it.
For this week, temperatures in Dallas are expected to exceed all previous records since monitoring began back in 1898.
(Record warm temperatures predicted for Dallas later this week. Image source: Euro Model.)
According to meteorologist Ryan Maue, and to reanalysis of Euro weather model data, Dallas is expected to see temperatures between 90 and 94 degrees Fahrenheit by Friday of this week. Readings that would be considered pretty hot for a normal summer day occurring on November 3rd. That’s really odd. Especially when you consider the fact that Dallas has never experienced a 90+ degree high temperature from October 31 through December 29 in all of the past 119 years.
If Dallas does hit 94 on Friday, that will be 21 degrees (F) above typical high temperatures there for this time of year.
(According to GFS Model Reanalysis, the globe has warmed through Northern Hemisphere Fall despite a trend toward La Nina. Image source: Global and Regional Climate Anomalies.)
Drawing back from focus on the Dallas region, we find that the world overall is also warming relative to June through September temperature departures. A climate change associated warming that appears to have been kicked off, primarily, by warmer than normal temperatures at the poles (see previous article). This despite cooling Equatorial Pacific Ocean surface waters associated with a 55 to 65 percent of La Nina formation by winter.
In a normal climate system, we would expect a trend toward La Nina to produce relative cooling. But this does not appear to be happening as June warm temperature departures were lower than those during August through October. Preliminary GFS reanalysis indicates that October warm temperature departures were higher than those occurring in September — likely hitting around 1.1 C above 1880s averages (see image above).
So despite a weak La Nina forming, it again appears that polar warming is a major driver for global temperatures as fall moves into winter. Climatologists take note.
RELATED STATEMENTS AND INFORMATION:
Links:
Global and Regional Climate Anomalies
Exposing the Big Game
/ November 1, 2017Reblogged this on The Extinction Chronicles.
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Allan Barr
/ November 1, 2017Going to be interesting to see just how much of a step jump in temps occurs once the El Nino comes back. Could we see CO2 annual increases get close to 5 ppm or higher?
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robertscribbler
/ November 1, 2017Not likely. We have plateauing human carbon emissions, which is the biggest driver. The annual is a tug of war between plateauing to falling human carbon emissions (5 year horizon), human land management (secondary but important impact), warming related feedback (rather smaller than the human emissions signal), gradually dwindling carbon sink so long as warming continues, and how natural variability cycles dilate or contract impacts.
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wpNSAlito
/ November 1, 2017“…warming related feedback (rather smaller than the human emissions signal)…”
So, that’s
– lowered albedo from snow/ice melt
– emissions from melting permafrost
right?
How is “warming ocean absorbing less CO2” categorized and where can I find out the relative impact of that?
TIA
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robertscribbler
/ November 2, 2017Lowered albedo impacts temperature. Land and ocean biochemical carbon feedback is enhanced by larger warming (this includes but is not limited to permafrost, primary feedback at this time appears to be in tropical forests and this is related to both heating and land management).
RE Ocean carbon sink, here’s a good article on the subject:
https://thinkprogress.org/bombshell-land-ocean-carbon-sinks-are-weakening-making-climate-action-more-urgent-ea3263f8a7c2/
And other:
https://thinkprogress.org/bombshell-land-ocean-carbon-sinks-are-weakening-making-climate-action-more-urgent-ea3263f8a7c2/
I could go on for some time. The issue for the ocean operating effectively as a carbon sink comes from two factors:
1. Warming heats water and renders water less able to hold CO2 in solution. This means that surface waters are less able to take CO2 out of the air through surface interaction.
2. More CO2 in solution in the ocean (also generating ocean acidification) ultimately generates a saturation effect in which the water is less able to draw down CO2 due to the fact that the store of CO2 in water is more full and its capacity to take in more is reduced.
These two work in tandem to slowly reduce ocean carbon uptake as CO2 levels rise in the atmosphere and as warming ramps up.
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Sheri
/ November 1, 2017we all seem to be “cookiing” at much higher temps in the past two years than I thought we would like 5 or so years ago. As always these days, I wonder what that means for 2 or 3 yrs from now??.
Phoenix weather has finally dropped below 90s into mid 80s and the 10 day forecast into 70s. I hope we stay there like we’re supposed to. The last two winters 2016 and 2017 have really felt warmer than they should have been.
Thanks as usual for all your information , Robert.
Best to you all,
Sheri
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robertscribbler
/ November 2, 2017Thanks for the kind words and thoughts, Sheri. We definitely appear to have hit a step higher when it comes to warming. And, without rapid mitigation, we’ll be hitting more steps sooner rather than later.
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coloradobob
/ November 1, 2017When you get the bit in your teeth. No one comes close.
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robertscribbler
/ November 2, 2017LOL. Thanks for this, Bob. Means a lot coming from you 🙂
I’ve been holding back recently. Wanted to give others space to refine their messaging.
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Dave McGinnis
/ November 1, 2017This ought to be related to low soil moisture conditions but this site shows near-normal values. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
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robertscribbler
/ November 2, 2017Heavier rains in the South and West recently have recharged soil moisture. That barrier is not impervious, though. If present trend of warming and drying continues, you’ll see flash drought conditions emerging again in rather short order.
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Greg
/ November 2, 2017LikeLike
Greg
/ November 2, 2017In response to:
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robertscribbler
/ November 2, 2017Yep. We’re on track for 3 C approx with present policy. So policy needs to be more aggressive. 3 C this Century = approx 6 C long term with potentially higher levels due to ongoing carbon feedback. Though 2 C is bad enough, we need to try to hit as close to or ideally below that threshold. 3 C this Century is a very rough world with very tough long term impacts.
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John Allen
/ November 2, 2017From all I’ve read 4C is terminal temperature, the oceans are dying now and in 10 years or so half the coral reefs will be dead. Thanx for all of your hard work to keep us informed, the Ol’ Hippy
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islandraider
/ November 2, 2017From the well circulated summary document for Mark Lynas book ‘Six Degrees – Our Live on a Hotter Planet’
“Three Degrees
In the three degree scenario, Africa will be split between the north which will see a recovery of rainfall and the south which becomes drier. This drier southern phase will be beyond human adaptation. Wind speeds will double leading to serious erosion of the Kalahari desert.
The last time the world experienced a three degree temperature rise was during the geological Pliocene Age (3 million years ago). The historical period of the earth’s history was undoubtedly due to high CO2 levels (about 360 – 440ppm – almost exactly current levels).
Likely to see major increase in activity of the so-called “el nino” effect. In such a scenario, the following are likely:-
• UK can expect drier winters
• Indian monsoon rains will fail. Monsoons are essential to 60% of the world’s population. In a 3° world monsoons will become more variable either failing entirely or causing devastating flooding.
• The Himalayan glaciers provide the waters of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra, the Mekong,
• Yangtze and Yellow rivers. In the early stages of global warming these glaciers will release more water but eventually decreasing by up to 90%. Pakistan will suffer most, as will China’s hydro-electric industry.
• Amazonian rain forest basin will dry our completely with consequent bio-diversity disastersIn Brazil, Venezuela, Columbia, East Peru and Bolivia life will become increasingly difficult due to wild fires which will cause intense air pollution and searing heat. The smoke will blot out the sun.
• Drought will be permanent in the sub-tropics and Central America
• Australia will become the world’s driest nation. Days when the temperatures exceed 40° will increase sixfold, the drought frequency will triple and rainfall plummet by 25% with extreme winds. Australia’s main rivers for water supply will lose between 25% and 50% of their flow. Perth particularly vulnerable.
• The western seaboard of the US will be especially vulnerable to drought. Snowmelt will reduce dramatically. Snowless Springs, hotter summers, harsher droughts and wild fires without water to fight them will become common-place.
• By contrast, New York will have too much water! It will be subject to storm surges. Sea levels are already 25cms higher. At 3° sea levels will rise to up to 1 metre above present levels. A 1 in a 100 year storm will happen every 20 years by 2050 and every forth year by 2080.
• In London, too, although the Thames Barrier will continue to give some protection, a 1 in 150 year storm will occur every 7 or 8 years by 2080.
• In the US Gulf of Mexico high sea temperatures will drive 180+ mph winds. Houston will be vulnerable to flooding by 2045. Galveston will be inundated.
• Hurricanes will devastate places as far removed as Texas, the Caribbean and Shanghai.
• A 3° rise will see more extreme cyclones tracking across the Atlantic and striking the UK, Spain, France and Germany. Holland will become very vulnerable. By 2070 northern Europe will have 20% more rainfall and at the same time the Mediterranean will be slowly turning to a desert.
• East Africa will become more humid encouraging a greater incidence of malaria and dengue fever.
• In the Arctic 80% of sea ice will have melted.
• Some northern regions will benefit from longer growing seasons (Norway, Finland) but will not compensate for loss of production elsewhere.
• Many plant species will become extinct as they will be unable to adapt to such a sudden change in climate. More than half Europe’s plant species will be on the “red list”.
The International Panel on Climate Change in its 2007 report concluded that all major planetary granaries will require adaptive measures at 2.5° temperature rise regardless of precipitation rates. US southern states worst affected, Canada may benefit. The IPCC reckons that a 2.5° temperature rise will see food prices soar.
Population transfers will be bigger than anything ever seen in the history of mankind. This will inevitably lead to conflict and international wars.
Worse still, a “vicious circle” will develop under the three degree scenario:-
• Amazon rain forests dry out
• Wild fires develop
• Fires release more CO2
• Global warming intensifies as a result
• Vegetation and soil begins to release CO2 rather than to absorb it.
• Could push the 3° scenario to a 4° to 5.5° situation. (International Panel on Climate Change worst case scenario).”
For more on the impacts expected as temperatures increase, get a copy of his book. Here is a link to the summary document:
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John Allen
/ November 2, 2017I stopped reading 6 Degrees after half of 5C as the outlook was too depressing.
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Loni
/ November 2, 2017The dates assigned to the seasons is becoming hard to explain.
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robertscribbler
/ November 2, 2017Seasonality is definitely taking a hit.
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Shawn Redmond
/ November 2, 2017This talk by Richard Alley has one of the best explanations of cherry picking I’ve seen, (approx. 28 minute point). 45 minute presentation on global warming. A really good explanation in laymen’s terms.
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robertscribbler
/ November 2, 2017Thanks for this, Shawn.
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Keith Antonysen
/ November 2, 2017It appears as though Adani, an Indian Company will be obtaining a loan to develop the largest coal mine in the Southern Hemisphere.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-02/adani-chinese-state-owned-companies-in-deal-to-bankroll-mine/9109880
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robertscribbler
/ November 2, 2017Some coal development continues despite larger trend away from coal. This is one of those stranded asset issues.
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Suzanne
/ November 2, 2017Make it stop…please..someone make it stop….
At The Hill…”Perry links fossil fuel development to preventing sexual assault”
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/358386-rick-perry-fossil-fuels-will-help-prevent-sexual-assault
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Erik Frederiksen
/ November 2, 2017Perry has it in reverse. The continued use of fossil fuels will lead to more stateless lands and we’ve seen what happens to women in stateless lands in Africa, in some countries there 75 percent of women have been raped.
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Suzanne
/ November 2, 2017Rick Perry continues to be a mouthpiece for the fossil fuel industry..and show the world what an incompetent moron he can be. I am so sick of these “idiots” that Trump has appointed. It is like being caught in a non-stop nightmare.
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Titania Baildon
/ November 2, 2017In the US currently it is one in five women and one in 71 men will be raped
at some point in their lives and one in four girls and one in six boys will be sexually
abused before they turn 18 years old. https://www.nsvrc.org/sites/default/files/publications_nsvrc_factsheet_media-packet_statistics-about-sexual-violence_0.pdf
Not 75%, but still pretty bad in this supposedly great country of ours. And yes, as things get worse so does the violence, and the ones at the bottom get it the worst.
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robertscribbler
/ November 2, 2017Perry’s political views overall are pretty harmful to women’s interests. This fossil fuel statement is brazen salesmanship of a harmful substance as a false solution to problems Perry’s political stance already enables. Would be tough to find a more lizard brained comment, even from Trump.
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John Allen
/ November 2, 2017Insane isn’t it? We have morons leading the USS Titanic into a huge terminal iceberg.
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Robert in New Orleans
/ November 2, 2017You are insulting Morons, Mr. Allen 😉
The most creative minds in Hollywood could not dream this stuff up.
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longboren
/ November 4, 2017Yes, the Titanic can take it. The hull is strong! The naysayers have been fired! We make our own reality! We will charge the iceberg and show it who’s boss! We are exceptional! Exceptional peoples always win! We will win! True glory is on the other side of the iceberg! (Maybe the iceberg will melt before we get there due to thousand year solar cycles.) Anything to the contrary is fake news!
I am sure glad I am 66 years old at the present time, instead of 26.
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Robert in New Orleans
/ November 2, 2017LikeLike
Suzanne
/ November 2, 2017GRRRRR……The EPA won’t let scientists speak …and yet..this Regime of Incompetents lets this nincompoop not only speak…but run the Energy Department.
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Jim
/ November 2, 2017Rick Perry, like his boss, has trouble speaking in complete sentences and dealing with facts. Does he actually start to say the “righteousness OF those types of acts (sexual assault) around the 50 second mark?
So, Perry’s solution to the problem of indoor air pollution associated with burning one type of fossil fuel (kerosene) is to burn another fossil fuel outside. Do you think he’s aware of the 9 million deaths each year from air pollution? Whether it’s indoors or outdoors, burning fossil fuels kills people. I’d point him to the Lancet article, but i know it would be a waste of time.
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)32345-0/fulltext
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Jim
/ November 2, 2017Here Suzanne, This twitter feed will help you deal with Rick Perry’s righteous coal comments. I think most people have Perry pegged for what he is, a shill.
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robertscribbler
/ November 2, 2017What’s next? Rick Perry prescribes fossil fuels as ‘tasty beverage?’ Solution to tooth decay? Snake oil salesman much?
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Suzanne
/ November 3, 2017🙂 I wouldn’t put it past him.
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paul
/ November 3, 2017It only depends on how much money the cola industry will give him.
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Erik Frederiksen
/ November 2, 2017Something related to global temperature rise and other impacts from an interview with James Hansen in the Guardian last year:
“Some things do change gradually because of the inertia system. The global average temperature, if you average it over several years, is going up pretty smoothly, since the middle 1970s. January/February of this year, global temperature is now 1.3 degrees above the 1950-1980 average, but that was just two months. Averaged over the year, it’s going to be about 0.9 degrees Celsius, and that’s pretty much on this almost linear increase over the last four decades.
Locally and regionally you get abrupt events, which are the ones that have the biggest impact on people. The frequency and severity of extreme events increase as the planet continues to get warmer. Sea level and ice-sheet disintegration is also a very nonlinear process. It’s going to lead to rapid change within the next several decades.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/12/climate-scientist-james-hansen-i-dont-think-im-an-alarmist
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Erik Frederiksen
/ November 2, 2017“An irreversible inflow of warm water under the ice shelf could begin within the next few decades, according to climate researchers at the Alfred Wegener Institute.
New research suggests that rising air temperatures above the Weddell Sea could set off a self-amplifying meltwater feedback cycle under the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the second half of the century. If this happens, the second-largest ice shelf in the Antarctic could shrink dramatically.”
https://www.antarcticreport.com/articles/irreversible-warm-inflow-threatens-second-largest-antarctic-ice-shelf
Looks like the WAIS has a second problem in addition to the Amundsen Sea.
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Erik Frederiksen
/ November 2, 2017Oops, meant to post this regarding the article on polar warming.
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Kassy
/ November 2, 2017These are exactly the things we want to avoid. There is this really big gap between some abstract political discussion on limiting global temperatures to 2 degrees and what it might cost “our economies” and these mechanisms in nature.
Once it starts you can’t stop it. And of course if the second largest shelf is in trouble the first one will be too.
The goal is not abstract. We need to hit that 2C limit to avoid losing most of our coastal cities. The choice is really not hard.
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Erik Frederiksen
/ November 2, 2017We’ve likely already lost our coastal cities, the question is when. According to the paleoclimate record, a rise in temperature of just 1.5-2 degrees C above pre-industrial temperature commits the system to 6-9m of sea level rise.
And people like the NASA glaciologist Eric Rignot say that not only is the West Antarctic Ice Sheet irreversibly retreating (3.3m global mean sea level rise), but also marine sectors of Greenland (3m SLR). And the Totten Glacier in East Antarctica, which drains more ice than the entire WAIS, is also being eaten away by warming ocean temperatures.
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Christina MacPherson
/ November 2, 2017Reblogged this on nuclear-news.
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longboren
/ November 4, 2017I believe that on some (unconsious) level humans operate as a single organism. Could be at a village, national or global level. When our collective conscience detects danger, it causes us to take actions that will reduce danger to the collective level. This mode of thought has no regard for the individual almost by definition. So when a society dissolves and enough people are killed that the collective will survive, the mission is accomplished. I look at social collapses like Ruanda, the Cultural Revolution, Lebanon, WWI, etc etc as examples of this. Not unlike starfish sacrificing its legs or a beehive sacrificing individuals to safeguard the hive. Trump didn’t cause global warming, but he and our society may be the mechanism through which the world collective population will be sufficiently reduced that the remaining collective can survive. The forces that be are doubling down, going the wrong direction in every conceivable area. This grim scenario implies that collectively that humans will survive the gross assault on our living space. However I’m not sure if the collective conscience has reckoned with exponential change before….
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robertscribbler
/ December 6, 2017Thank you for your work.
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