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U.S. Electrical Vehicle Sales Rocket Higher — Breaking New Records in March

A proliferation of attractive electrical vehicle models produced by automakers combined with a surging Tesla to generate a significant new U.S. sales record in March.

The surge is indicative of a break-out ‘moment’ for EVs that will likely result in serious growth in this clean energy segment throughout 2018. The potential now exists that total U.S. EV sales will exceed 300,000 this year. As the global, regional and local impacts of continued high carbon emissions from fossil fuel industry worsens, this surge in clean energy technology couldn’t come on fast enough. However, as is true with all carbon emission reduction efforts, the pace needs to be quickened if we are to provide a navigable pathway through the rising crisis that is human-caused global warming.

44 Percent Growth YoY

In total, March saw 26,373 electrical vehicles sold in the U.S. This is about a 44 percent growth rate over March of 2017 at 18,542 EVs hitting the streets during that time. It was also a new all-time monthly record for the U.S.

(Due to better overall efficiency and zero tailpipe emissions, pure electrical vehicles presently cut annual carbon emissions by more than half. Plug-in hybrids also produce substantial emissions reductions. But the kicker is that when combined with an all renewable grid, pure EV production to roadways carbon emissions fall by 90 percent to up to 100 percent if materials and logistics are decoupled from carbon sources as well. Grids in the U.S. are becoming cleaner. As a result, EV emissions are making further progress over their dirty gas and diesel counterparts. Image source: Union of Concerned Scientists.)

Tesla Model 3, beginning a break out production surge, led the pack by hitting 3,820 sales. Tesla Model S trailed somewhat at 3,375. While Toyota Prius Prime’s plug in hybrid rounded out the top 3 at 2,922.

In the past, sales rates in excess of around 500 for individual models in any given month was seen as significant. And from the Chrysler Pacifica plug in hybrid (480) on upward to the Chevy Volt (1,782) and Tesla Model X (2,825), fully ten attractive models (outside of the top 3) fall within this range at present. These include both the Chevy Bolt (1,774) and the Nissan Leaf (1,500). Bolt, a long range all-electric vehicle rated at over 200 miles produced significant sales in the 2,000s to low 3,000s per month late last year. But as the Model 3 production ramp has increased, Bolt sales have lagged. A 151 mile range version of the Nissan Leaf (1,500) is one of the top selling EVs globally. However, the new Leaf’s production ramp in the U.S. has been a bit slower. That said, it’s expected that the Nissan sales effort for the Leaf in the U.S. will be substantial going forward.

Sales Surge Due to Multiple Factors

Meanwhile, the long tale of models selling between 100 and 400 is extending — with fully 16 models accounted for in that range.

(The U.S. saw a major surge in electrical vehicle sales during March. The start of a trend that will likely continue through the end of 2018. Image source: Inside EVs.)

The primary drivers of the major sales surge, therefore, are multiple. First, Tesla’s own production effort creates a lot of momentum for the surge — so far adding a net gain of around 3,000 vehicles all by itself. A second surge comes in the form of the advent of more attractive long range EV models like the Bolt and the Leaf — both of which are drawing intense interest from buyers. A proliferation of attractive plug in electric hybrid vehicles like the Toyota Prius Prime, The Chrysler Pacifica, The Honda Clarity (1070), and the Chevy Volt is leading a third wave in the surge. A final push comes simply due to model proliferation and increased general sales efforts.

Due to these combined trends, and due to the fact that additional attractive long range EV models are likely to become available during 2018, the 300,000 EV per year mark appears to be well within reach for the U.S. during 2018. Hitting so high would represent more than 50 percent growth over 2017. However, if major EV manufacturers like Tesla manage to step up their production game further, even the 300,000 mark could be substantially overcome.

Exciting if uncertain times.

 

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48 Comments

  1. Thanks for another article on EV autos! 🙂

    For any of your readers who live in Massachusetts, or who live in New England and might want to call to see if the auto dealers here will extend to them the same courtesy, here is a link to an often-updated chart of BEV and PHEV vehicles sold and leased at attractive discounts for customers of Mass Energy. A group called Drive Green with Mass Energy deserves kudos for this – be great to see the network enlarged. 🙂

    http://massenergywebservices.com/drivegreen/table-all.php#prius

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply
  2. In reference to Arctic sea ice:

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  3. Jeremy in Wales

     /  April 6, 2018

    Another calving event on the Pine Island Glacier, with many small bergs instead of tabular bergs, even as the Antarctic re-freezes

    Liked by 2 people

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    • Ouch. It’s looking pretty fast, fragmented and unstable to me. Also note the long crack extending north and west from the southern calving feature.

      Liked by 1 person

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    • Unrelated directly but also concerning:

      According to Bob Henson, it appears that atmospheric moisture levels are at record highs for this time of year in sections of California right now.

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  4. Jeremy in Wales

     /  April 6, 2018

    EV & PHEV sales up for March 2018 compared to previous years (March has the highest sales of the year due to registration plate changes) up some 13%. It is a mixed picture as pure EV sales have dropped while plug-in hybrids surge. Mitsuibishi Outlander PHEV is the best seller.
    http://www.nextgreencar.com/electric-cars/statistics/
    EV and PHEV sales make up 2% of UK market.

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  5. Mike S

     /  April 6, 2018

    I live in Arizona, and haven’t seen a Tesla “in the wild” here yet. But I have seen a number of Nissan Leafs, 2 Chevy Bolts, and 1 VW e-gulf. I wonder if the majority of nationwide Teslas are in California?

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    • I see them here in MD and DC all the time.

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    • Steve Piper

       /  April 6, 2018

      I see them all the time in Boulder County. But I would agree with you, it’s nothing in Colorado compared to Silicon Valley.

      Liked by 1 person

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    • Andy_in_SD

       /  April 7, 2018

      Here in Southern Cali there are oodles of Teslas (they are expensive, but so cal is a high income area), mountains of Prius’s, quite a lot of Leafs. I would estimate ~10% to 20% of the vehicles I see are Hybrid through pure electric.

      As an aside, in my neighborhood I would estimate a minimum 15% of the houses have solar panels.

      Liked by 1 person

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  6. redskylite

     /  April 7, 2018

    That news gives me hope we can still stave off the worst, and people are getting the message, and of course the economics of owning an electric vehicle pay off handsomely – I am reading that many companies are electrifying fleets of working vehicles, more and more are becoming available of all sorts and sizes. Can’t wait to see the large Teslas in action.

    WB Mason Receives Ryder-Managed Fleet Of Workhorse E-GEN Electric Vans

    The all-electric range is around 60 miles per full-charge, and the BMW range-extenders provide a further 60 miles of range when fully filled — making for a total possible range of 120 miles, easily enough for most step van delivery work.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/03/wb-mason-receives-ryder-managed-fleet-of-workhorse-e-gen-electric-vans/

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    • The Tesla Semi has an all electric range of 300 and 500 miles. It appears to be another market changing product. One that will launch in 2019 and that is already racking up a boatload of pre orders. It’s the kind of product that will generate a slew of near peer competitors. It also spurs these competitors to get their act together and actually bring concepts into production.

      Liked by 2 people

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      • Abel Adamski

         /  April 9, 2018

        We saw the photo of them heading off to do deliveries of batteries to SoCal plant, heard no updates of how it all went or any video of the trip (Especially uphill passing the ICE semi’s).

        Any feedback on that at all

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        • To my knowledge, this is all ongoing as part of alpha testing. But the vehicles appear to be performing very well and are slowly being integrated as part of the Tesla supply chain. If this happens at scale, it will considerably reduce net carbon emissions going into the production of an EV. If the plants are powered by renewables and if the supply chain is powered by renewables, that’s a majority of the sunk carbon emissions of production period. Final major factors are steel (direct vehicles) and concrete (facilities) production carbon emissions. But there are methods in place to start decarbonizing those streams as well which can be pursued.

          Like

        • In the end, we get to less than 50 percent ICE now and the path to 90 percent is pretty clear. The technological/process pieces for the last 10 percent are starting to fall into place. Tesla is working on this process.

          Like

  7. Abel Adamski

     /  April 7, 2018

    A bit OT but a good read
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-04-07/fossil-fuel-geoscientist-joins-climate-change-fight/9494426
    How a fossil fuel geoscientist joined the fight against climate change
    Imagine walking away from a promising and well-paying career as a geoscientist in the fossil fuel industry to join the fight against climate change.

    That’s what Dimitri Lafleur did.

    He started working for Shell in his home country of the Netherlands before he ended up in Australia in 2008 to help the company search for gas on the North West Shelf.

    “My job was to map out the structure of the gas fields and work out how to get the most gas out of them,” says Dimitri.

    But soon after he arrived in Perth, Dimitri found himself at a briefing on climate change science, and things would never be the same.

    Looking at graphs of increasing carbon dioxide levels, he could not see how climate change could be solved with continued use of fossil fuels.

    “That was the real trigger for me to think this was not the way to continue,” says Dimitri

    He became acutely aware of the need for humans to take action.

    “You reflect on what you’re doing and realise ‘well I’m not part of the solution’.”

    Dimitri started agitating for the company to shift more of its core business towards renewables. But change wasn’t going to happen fast enough for him.

    “You start to wonder, ‘What am I doing here?'”

    So, after years of geophysics and geology study, including a master’s degree in earth sciences, and 11 years in the oil and gas industry, Dimitri took the plunge and resigned.

    Liked by 1 person

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  8. Shawn Redmond

     /  April 7, 2018

    As usual for me way O/T:

    https://www.folio.ca/one-degree-rise-in-temperature-causes-ripple-effect-in-worlds-largest-high-arctic-lake/
    St. Pierre added that, while scientists would expect smaller systems to respond rapidly to temperature shifts, it had been anticipated that larger systems, like Lake Hazen, would change more slowly.

    “But Lake Hazen is pretty much as big as you can get in this kind of environment, and it’s already showing that there are changes across the entire ecosystem in less than a decade. And this is in response to only a third of what the conservative scenarios are for future warming,” said St. Pierre.

    The piece finishes by stating the following:
    “We are interested in how this plays out going forward, whether this is a short-term disturbance for which there could be some recovery if the atmospheric temperature cools again, or whether this is the start of something much bigger,” said Sharp.

    As if there is a person alive today that could reasonably expect to see lowering temps in their life time. Except of course if we try the only global dimming project that is tested and shown that it will definitely work, nuclear confrontation! Should it come to that a high arctic lake will not be in the conversations much.

    Liked by 1 person

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  9. Sheri

     /  April 7, 2018

    Here in Phoenix, 90s have come 3-4 weeks early. This means turning on cooling probably before you figure on doing it. My house is okay until we get to 95 dailyl and above, then I turn on the AC. Yes, open windows at night help with temps the way they are. This and little arin this winter shows in half dry trees and even desert landscaping lookiing pretty dried out.

    thanks for all the info you and others provide here, Robert and Scribblers,
    Sheri

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
  10. wharf rat

     /  April 7, 2018

    Sorta OT…

    China’s secret trade war option: A rare earth embargo

    The U.S. is 100 percent import-dependent on all of these critical defense materials and 100 percent import-dependent exclusively on China for these materials after they are processed into metallic form (the state required for most technology and defense applications).

    http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/381282-chinas-secret-trade-war-option-a-rare-earth-embargo

    Rat, being non-violent, prefers trade peace to trade war. He understands we’re all collateral damage, but realizes the necessity of a trade war in order to cement one’s reputation as the worst president, so he won’t be taking part in any anti-trade war sit-ins.

    Liked by 1 person

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    • Worst president indeed. Trade wars are about the worst way possible to try to get a better deal for the US v China. Very unlikely to succeed in any meaningful way. Very likely to produce major self-inflicted economic wounds. Although it’s become increasingly clear that Trump isn’t trying to do anything helpful for America. This is just more of his toxic, disruptive, divisive crud.

      Liked by 2 people

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    • Abel Adamski

       /  April 9, 2018

      Actually when you look closely at the real figures and include services the figure is $276Bill as the Chinese claim.
      But that ignores the fact of 60,000 US businesses in China, retail Big M’s etc and up Market retail – Tiffanys, but mainly in manufacturing and vehicle construction and components both for local sale and export including to the US – profits from those shipped back to the US shift the money balance the US’s way.
      Fix the trade imbalance
      Easy, China shuts down the US Businesses – they are the majority of goods imported to the US, problem solved, I wonder why the Trumpian Genius didn’t think of that obvious solution

      Liked by 1 person

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  11. wharf rat

     /  April 7, 2018

    Like

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  12. wili

     /  April 8, 2018

    “Grocery bags and takeout containers aren’t enough. It’s time to phase out all single-use plastic”

    “Faced with an unholy tonnage of chip bags, soda bottles, takeout containers and other disposable plastic items flowing into our landfills and our waters, winding up in wildlife, drinking water and food, policymakers in California have tried reining in plastic waste bit by bit. For example, more than 100 cities have adopted restrictions on polystyrene takeout containers, and the state has banned single-use plastic grocery bags.

    Considering the magnitude of the problem, however, this item-by-item, city-by-city approach isn’t going to cut it. …”

    http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-plastic-plan-20180220-story.html

    Liked by 1 person

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  13. wili

     /  April 8, 2018

    Someone at asif recently pointed out that the yearly maximum Arctic sea ice extent numbers that we just recently hit are about the same as the yearly minimum ice extent numbers of 40 years ago or so. Just stunning.

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  14. wili

     /  April 8, 2018

    How I Talk to My Daughter About Climate Change
    As a reporter covering the environment, I’m all too aware of what the next 50 years could hold. As a 9-year-old, she’s not—and for now, she wants to stay that way.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2018/04/raising-kids-climate-change/554969/

    Liked by 1 person

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  15. PlazaRed

     /  April 8, 2018

    A bit off your blog topic but this graph of the Arctic sea ice is to say the least disturbing.
    We might be about a month ahead of normal, not that there is very much normal any more.

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

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  16. wili

     /  April 8, 2018

    “Most of the technology we use is over 100 years old: industrial systems, the way to produce electricity, the distribution of it, lightbulbs. We want the latest iPhone, but we are laid-back on the way we get and use energy”
    – Bertrand Piccard
    https://mobile.twitter.com/bertrandpiccard/status/982176721859325960

    Liked by 1 person

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  17. Robert McLachlan

     /  April 9, 2018

    I believe the EV revolution will succeed, but the “rapid S-curve” adoption is by no means in the bag. Here are the market shares for all plug-in EVs from 2013 to 2017: (hope the formatting survives)

    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
    Norway 6% 14% 23% 27% 34%
    Iceland 0.9% 2.7% 2.9% 5.7% 13%
    Sweden 0.7% 1.7% 2.6% 3.2% 4.7%

    UK 0.2% 0.6% 1.1% 1.5% 1.9%
    Germany 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 1.6%
    US 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 1.2%

    Denmark 0.3% 0.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.4%
    Netherlands 5.6% 3.9% 9.6% 6.0% 2.2%
    Italy 0.11% 0.13% 0.15% 0.17% 0.2%

    Countries can start off well and then fade. They can also start small and stay small. Doubling every 2 years worldwide would be great but it is going to take a lot of work to make it happen.

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    • You neglected to post the global trend while leaving out key players:

      Individual country markets will tend to see more wag, but the larger pool is dominated more by economic (learning curve) and political (climate change awareness) trends.

      Liked by 1 person

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    • There are numerous primary advantages of EVs vs ICEs that will become more and more apparent as production volumes improve. Range will extend, the acceleration and torque difference will dilate, the superior cost of ownership for EVs will be more obvious, base prices will come down and more highly capable economy models will be produced, lack of stinking tailpipe emissions and nasty grease dripping from the chassy will make owning an EV more appealing, charging times will speed up, and the plug itself will be seen as a benefit enabling EV owners to refuel at home, at work, and in a greater number of locations than ICEs. Furthermore, the fact that EVs have zero tailpipe emissions and do not contribute to the climate crisis when mated with renewables in operation are the final two straws.

      ICEs will be seen as old, outmoded, and barbaric by many. Those who cling to them will be considered to possess similar mind-sets as those who idealize the old south while ignoring the scourge of slavery.

      Liked by 1 person

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  18. fluencyofthought

     /  April 9, 2018

    My off-topic contribution…
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-09/record-temperatures-forecast-as-heatwave-hits-southern-australia/9625868

    Record temperatures forecast as unseasonable heatwave hits southern Australia

    Record-breaking temperatures will continue in southern parts of Australia this week, with Adelaide set to cop the brunt of the heat today.

    Temperatures have peaked in the mid-30s in Adelaide and an April heatwave record looks set to be broken in the state capital.

    Extreme heat in early April is not abnormal, but with 34 degrees Celsius in Adelaide on Sunday, 35C forecast for today and 33C on Tuesday, a significant record is in danger.

    Bureau of Meteorology duty forecaster Matt Bass said South Australia was experiencing temperatures rarely seen at this point of the month. […]

    “If we get above 33C today and on Tuesday then it will be the first time Adelaide has ever had three days in a row above 33 degrees in April. […] In parts of southern SA we’ve even got 40 degrees forecast out at places like Nullarbor and Wudinna.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/weather/2018/apr/08/south-australia-bushfire-record-temperatures-fuel-blaze-south-of-adelaide

    Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Peter Webb said the temperature had already hit 34C in Adelaide before midday on Sunday, with a forecast of 35C and 33C over the next two days. “That has never ever happened before in April,” he said.

    Liked by 1 person

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  19. Shawn Redmond

     /  April 9, 2018

    I found this an interesting read. The gas these guys are producing is worth more than electricity! There is something fundamentally wrong with using electricity,( that may well have been produced by burning said gas) to work the shale plays. Which raises the question; How long can you produce the power if the fuel is worth more than the product it is used to create?
    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Permian-Oil-Boom-Threatens-To-Overtax-Electrical-Grid.html

    The shale boom in the Permian where companies are intensively drilling while keeping costs low has led to an unprecedented electricity demand in West Texas, straining the grid as local utilities try to keep up with demand.

    In the 2.0 shale boom in the Permian, companies are replacing the expensive diesel-powered and natural gas-powered generators for powering compressors with a cheaper option— hooking up to the grid, the Houston Chronicle reports.

    This shift among oil companies to use more electricity from the grid is catapulting electricity demand to unprecedented highs, straining the grid and threatening its reliability because of potential overload.

    Three utilities—Oncor, Texas-New Mexico Power, and AEP Texas—serve most of the areas close to the Permian. Power demand in and around the hottest U.S. shale play is expected to rise to 1,000 megawatts by 2022, up from just 22 megawatts in 2010, according to Houston Chronicle.

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    • Steve Piper

       /  April 9, 2018

      Hi Shawn — I think the issue is that the upstream products — oil, condensate, propane, butane — is more valuable, but the natural gas comes along for the ride when the wells go to production. Nat gas is a byproduct in that situation. What drillers should be doing is building on-site power gen and using the excess gas to produce electricity for their operations. That would be pretty cheap. But grid power is cheaper still. Why? Wind! There’s a whole lotta wind power in West Texas.

      Liked by 1 person

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      • Facts that should put to rest the energy density myth of fossil fuels in general. Wind is playing on oil and gas’s home turf due to superior economics.

        I’m a keep it in the ground guy due to climate change. But putting that aside, the economic facts of the matter are pretty clear. In addition, solar is now on an economic footing that is now similar to that of wind.

        Oil suffers a similar fate pretty soon due to two factors that are oft-neglected in discussion. An electric motor is x2 more efficient than an ICE and battery packs respond far better to economies of scale in producing positive learning curves than past transportation technologies.

        Liked by 1 person

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    • Gas = more expensive than wind…

      Liked by 1 person

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  20. kassy

     /  April 9, 2018

    At least the carbon bubble is in the sight of the Central Banks:

    World’s Foremost Central Banks Discuss Carbon Bubble & Divestment

    What risks does climate change pose to the stability of financial institutions? What role can and should supervisors play in mitigating these risks? These increasingly pressing questions were topics of discussion in Amsterdam on Friday, where 200 central bankers and financial supervisors from over 30 countries gathered during the first ever International Climate Risk Conference.

    Although the world came to agree that global warming should be kept under 2°C in the Paris Accord, entailing deep decarbonization of the global economy in the decades to come, the market capitalization of the largest greenhouse gas emitting industries do not seem to reflect these prospects. Despite 60 to 80 percent of global coal, oil, and gas reserves having been labeled unburnable without breaching Paris Agreement emission reduction targets, companies keep investing in expanding capacity. Figures estimated for the year 2012 by the London School of Economics and Political Science Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment suggest that $674 billion was invested in what would potentially be completely stranded assets, adding up to $6 trillion in the next 10 years.

    Current stock prices of carbon intensive industries are thus based on future profits that will never materialize if the energy transition is to advance at the speed required to meet the Paris Agreement. Such big names in the financial sector as Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, have already put out warning about what they consider a “carbon-bubble.”

    It has to be noted that analysts have pointed out that most of the market capitalization of these companies is based on expected profits over the next 15 years, as cash flows farther into the future are heavily discounted. In the slightly longer run, however, severe drops in profitability of carbon intensive industries (thus ultimately evaporating market value) are not unthinkable. If suddenly whole branches, from oil refinement to air travel and synthetic fertilizer production, cease to make sense economically — as carbon prices drastically increase — a shockwave will profoundly shake the entire financial system, potentially triggering another 2008-sized economic crisis. Reason enough for those responsible for the stability of the financial system, central bankers and other regulators, to convene on how large these climate-related risks are, and how they can be contained.

    The International Climate Risk Conference was initiated by the Dutch Central Bank DNB, Banque de France/ACPR, and the Bank of England — underneath the recently established Central Banks and Supervisor Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). Launched at the Paris One Planet Summit in 2017, this network aims to “strengthen the global response required to meet the goals of the Paris agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals,” both by enhancing the role the financial system plays in controlling climate risks as well as by mobilizing capital for low-carbon investment. The level of participating institutions, from the People’s Bank of China to the Deutsche Bundesbank, signal that climate related risks are on the agenda of financial regulators globally, potentially speeding up the reallocation of capital from carbon-intensive to more sustainable sectors.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/08/worlds-foremost-central-banks-discuss-carbon-bubble-divestment/

    Liked by 1 person

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    • They’re moving on this issue. They’re moving more slowly than they should given the nature of the problem. But at least, after decades of stonewalling and fossil fuel dominance of the finance system, they are moving.

      We’ve already seen a bit of the carbon bubble burst when it comes to coal. The event was unexpected, sooner than expected. Similar retrenchments are on the way for oil and gas. The political and media posture of the fossil fuel industry presently is designed to prevent those retrenchments for as long as possible by sand bagging renewable energy development. But right now they’re fighting an up-hill battle due to the improving and, in many cases, superior economics of renewable energy as well as the clear evidence that harmful climate change has come home to roost. That if we don’t get our act together and stop burning fossil fuels soon, then the situation gets rapidly worse and quite easily becomes unmanageable.

      Like

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  21. Jeremy in Wales

     /  April 9, 2018

    International Maritime Organisation is meeting in London to try to agree on a new policy on reducing CO2 emissions. Another front opened into part of the world economy that has had a free pass to date.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-43701631

    Bear in mind that ships have an average life of 25-30 years, so things will not change fast. Although they should as they are dirty beasts.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply
    • There are numerous opportunities to decarbonize shipping. And we should be pursuing them and implementing them as swiftly as possible.

      Like

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  22. rhymeswithgoalie

     /  April 11, 2018

    Climate, schmimate. As Elon Musk pointed out, combustion vehicles emit toxic gases.

    https://www.westernsafetysign.com/products/idle-free-zone-2

    Like

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