Advertisements

Globe Just Experienced its Third Hottest April on Record

According to reports from NASA GISS, the world just experienced its third hottest April on record. Topping out at 0.86 degrees Celsius above NASA’s 20th Century baseline, April of 2018 edged out 2010 as third in the record books despite the ongoing natural variability based cooling influence of La Nina.

(Analysis of present global temperature anomalies with information provided by NASA, NOAA and Earth Nullschool.)

The warmest regions of the world included large sections of the lower Arctic — encompassing Eastern Siberia, the East Siberian Sea, and the Chukchi Sea. In addition, Central Europe experienced much warmer than normal conditions. Notable cool pools included North-Central North America, the High Arctic, and the Weddell Sea region of Antarctica.

A seasonal reinforcement of the Jet Stream helped to keep cold air sequestered in the High Arctic during April. However, this sequestration appears to be weaker compared to recent April-through-June periods as record warm spikes returned to the High Arctic during early May. The result of strong south-to-north heat transfer through various ridge zones in the Jet Stream.

(Third warmest April on record despite La Nina. Image source: NASA.)

La Nina remained the prominent natural variability related feature during April. And the cooling influence of La Nina has tamped global temperatures down a bit following the recent record hot year of 2016. Overall, it appears that global temperatures are on track to average between 1.04 C and 1.08 C above 1880s averages during 2018. These rather high excessions are, of course, caused by atmospheric greenhouse gasses peaking in the range of 410 ppm CO2 (around 491 ppm CO2e) during April, May and June. Representing the greatest concentration of heat trapping gasses on Earth in about 15 million years.

With La Nina fading, its cooling influence is likely to become less acute and global temperatures may again begin to ramp higher by mid to late 2018. NOAA has indicated a 50 percent chance for El Nino formation during late 2018. If 2018-2019 does see an El Nino emerge, global temperatures will likely again exceed the 1.15 C threshold and potentially challenge 1.2 C.

(A warm Kelvin Wave crossing beneath the Equatorial Pacific brings with it the potential for El Nino formation during 2018-2019. If El Nino does form, and with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations so high, it is likely that we would see temperatures comparable to the record global warmth of 2016 re-emerge. Image source: NOAA.)

However, it is unlikely that the weaker predicted El Nino, if it does emerge, will force temperatures considerably higher than levels achieved during the strong El Nino of 2016. For that, we will likely have to wait until the early 2020s. But with carbon emissions continuing near record high ranges, temperatures are bound to rise — with the 1.5 C threshold likely to be breached by the late 2020s or early 2030s.

Advertisements
Leave a comment

32 Comments

  1. Jeremy in Wales

     /  May 18, 2018

    This is a terrible website, click bait all over, but occassionaly it does carry actual news. A electrical bus charging point has appeared in the centre of Cardiff with an announcement to follow in the next couple of weeks. About time that we started to get rid of the dirty diesel bus:
    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/huge-electrical-charger-appeared-busy-14669748
    However, just to prove how short sighted we are, in the early 1970s we ripped out an electric trolley bus system. I remember travelling on one of the last, getting a static shock of the pole on the rear open boarding platform.
    http://livingmags.co.uk/aboard-cardiffs-trolleybuses/
    Likely coming to a city near you.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
    • PlazaRed

       /  May 18, 2018

      The Manchester system is going strong and very widespread in the whole greater Manchester area and beyond.
      A similar system is in place and working in Seville Spain.
      According to the article below, the original old world tram system in Blackpool is still running.

      On the important Blog issues:-
      Looking at the map with half closed eyes, it seems that there are pools of warm and cool areas. lots of warm and very little cool. There is a diagonal slope effect of about 10 degrees from the upper right corner of the chart to the lower left corner of the chart, which also crosses the equator; this is too pronounced to merely accidental and possibly indicates that future heat islands may follow a pattern of slight declination across the latitudes, as the deserts now do in a similar 10 degree configuration from lower left to upper right.
      Jet streams could be influencing this pattern.
      The only real anomaly is the central area of North America, which is possibly being squeezed into conformity by the surrounding heat islands right now.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchester_Metrolink

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
    • Presently, buses around the world account for about 5 million barrels per day of oil demand. In addition, trucks account for around 10 million barrels per day. Electrification of these two modes of transport would produce major impacts, especially when combined with the present trend of increasing EV production for cars.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
  2. Political Animal

     /  May 19, 2018

    I have been spreading the news on Twitter hopefully discomfiting the ice age frauds. Also put a post on OzPolitic.com:

    http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1526691435

    Trying to get the truth out there despite the frauds and liars talking of GSM/global cooling/mini ice age etc.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
  3. Greg

     /  May 19, 2018

    For a remarkably insightful and just plain fun viewing, Elon Musk has just given a fairly detailed informal talk regarding the Boring company, first principles, and the company’s tunneling plans. It offers some great insight into a likely future for transportation and construction with implications for our mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply
    • If Elon can restart the public/mass transit conversation in the US and start building infrastructure that makes cars less necessary, then it will be a huge help. Props to him. In combo with the EV effort, his vision is amazingly transformational and directly counter to the harmful fossil fuel dependence of traditional industries.

      Like

      Reply
  4. Some GISS jazz…

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
  5. Ridley Jack

     /  May 19, 2018

    I think global temperatures will be around 0.80 to 0.85 above 20 century levels and then 2019 will be 0.90 to 0.98 above 20 century levels so all in all this year will be a bit lower then last years 0.89 nasa readings and 2019 will a bit lower then 2016s 0.99 (or should i just say 1.00 above 20 century) what do you think of my prediction?

    Like

    Reply
    • It’s in the ballpark. A lot depends on whether or not the Equatorial Pacific trends toward El Niño during the latter half of 2018. If ENSO gets stuck in nuetral, we’d likely see 2019 yearly averages at around 0.88 C (1.1 C v 1880s).

      We should remember that the further we get from 2016, possibly in the five year range, it becomes possible for weak El Niño years or ENSO neutral to exceed that mark.

      Like

      Reply
  6. bobinspain

     /  May 19, 2018

    An update on the wildfires in Siberia. Is this ‘normal’? Does anyone have decent statistics regarding changes in widlfires worldwide? My own thoughts are that this never looks good, but what’s the variance against normal for this time of year?
    http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/armageddon-as-forest-fires-hit-with-a-vengeance-around-komsomolsk-on-amur/

    Like

    Reply
    • Every year it seems the Russians have to summon an army of firefighters. This year is not the worst during the early season, be we have certainly had some bad fires. Over the coming weeks, the situation might devolve considerably as polar warming is expected to ramp up.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
    • Overall, though, the Arctic fire situation has grown worse and worse. Will see if I can track down the stats for a later article.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
      • bobinspain

         /  May 20, 2018

        Thanks for your reply Robert and for an excellent post. Kind regards

        Like

        Reply
  7. bobinspain

     /  May 20, 2018
    Reply
  8. kassy

     /  May 20, 2018

    It used to be not normal but we had bad fires in Siberia (and other far northern spots) the last years and to my (amateur) opinion this looks like the new normal. The Russians also probably have to adapt to this new normal. In the old normal they could let stuff burn because it would stop before becoming a problem but those days are gone.

    I wonder about their fire fighting capabilies. Historically they did not need as much but now you might want to put out fires close to urban areas. Then again i have no idea how they actually organize their fire fighting (i would bet some crew for critical infrastructure but this does not include random urban dwellings).

    One would hope that at one point they conclude they will also profit by fighting global warming instead of dreaming of fossil fuel riches. Preferably soon because ‘our allies’ the US aren’t helping either now (on a national level).

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
    • bobinspain

       /  May 20, 2018

      Thanks for your reply Kassy and I agree with your ideas in general but I’d love to get my hands on some statistics. There’s other stuff going on about the way things are done from inside contacts, which I’d rather not comment upon other than that its the same old bullshit that’s going on everywhere, i.e widespread and universal neglect. Period.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
  9. bobinspain

     /  May 20, 2018

    This is quite extraordinary. That a peer reviewed scientific journal should feature in its title ‘Biological Annihilation’
    http://www.pnas.org/content/114/30/E6089

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply
  10. kassy

     /  May 20, 2018

    Also i really like the new video format. GJ!

    Like

    Reply
  11. bobinspain

     /  May 20, 2018

    I know that I’ve shared this before, but every time I watch it, I cry. It moves me to tears how much damage we have done, whether by hunting or by neglect, or by hatred or persecution, that we should be moving on and and as a species embracing differences. I’ll get knocked down for being naive. Bracing myself 🙂

    Liked by 3 people

    Reply
    • We should move on. We need to close the door on our darker angels and embrace all the things that make this world such a wondrous place to inhabit.

      Like

      Reply
      • bobinspain

         /  May 20, 2018

        There is much about humanity that I love. Our greatest principles can be boiled down to simple day to day acts of kindness. That’s all.

        Like

        Reply
      • bobinspain

         /  May 20, 2018

        Bring back the wolves, the tigers, the bears, the great cats, the swordfish and the leopards. Bring back the balance, the harmony, the big cat and the small prey. Bring back not god nor prejudice but love and compassion for all living beings.

        Like

        Reply
  12. bobinspain

     /  May 20, 2018

    Following on from my last post. The rapid decline of apex predators:
    https://www.livescience.com/9716-loss-top-predators-causing-ecosystems-collapse.html

    Like

    Reply
  13. bobinspain

     /  May 20, 2018

    Kate Bush with some great guests. Running up that hill..

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
  1. Globe Just Experienced its Third Hottest April on Record — robertscribbler « nuclear-news

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Advertisements
%d bloggers like this: