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Will Tesla Shorts Be Milked For Billions in Clean Energy Investment Money?

Tesla short sellers have been on a rampage ever since the start of Model 3 production back in July. And to support their position, they’ve penned thousands of Tesla attack articles on blog sites like Seeking Alpha. As a result of this negative media campaign, short interest in Tesla has risen to 12 billion during recent months.

(Tesla shorts are starting to feel the squeeze. But it could get a lot worse real fast if Tesla keeps achieving goals.)

But if shorts get hit with a margin call when Tesla stocks are rising, they’ll end up losing money to the all-clean-energy automaker. If Tesla succeeds, it could ultimately mean that shorts are milked for billions of dollars that will in turn go to building more gigafactories, more electrical vehicles, more solar panels, more batteries.

It’s not beyond the realm of possibility. Back in 2012 when Tesla was ramping up production of the Model S, shorts had a field day. They said that Tesla should have never left behind the Roadster, that Telsa would never produce more than 20,000 Model S’s, that EVs were unprofitable and a failed business model. But as Tesla achieved profitability during 2013, it was the shorts that met with failure. And so as Tesla stock rapidly climbed, short positions were called and Tesla got a big infusion of investment capital.

Short interest remained strong for Tesla during 2013 through 2016. Though it took a bit of a back seat for the Model X ramp. But by 2017 the shorts were back in force. They claimed that the Model 3 ramp would fail, that Tesla would go bankrupt by May, that Tesla’s cash burn was insurmountable, that the Model 3 was unprofitable. Tall anti-clean-energy tales that we’ve all heard versions of before.

(Tesla shorts feeling the squeeze. Image source: Tesla Market Summary.)

And recently as Tesla Model 3 production has raged forward — and is likely to hit near 30,000 during Q2 — the shorts have begun to show a bit of strain. During the past few weeks, Tesla stock has risen from around 280 to around 340. And shorts have lost more than 2 billion dollars in value during the same period. Though just 3 percent of short shares have returned during that time, shorts are starting to feel a bit of a squeeze.

But this small squeeze is likely just a prelude to what will happen when Tesla Model 3 production ramps above 5,000 per week and if Tesla manages to achieve profitability in Q3 and Q4. If Tesla meets those two goals then it will end up milking shorts for billions of clean energy investment dollars. And if/when that happens we can thank the shorts for their unwitting clean energy investment dollars and for helping to fight human-caused climate change.

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64 Comments

  1. wili

     /  June 13, 2018

    “Last night, Berkeley, CA declared a climate emergency — committing to not only net zero carbon emissions by 2030, but a *net drawdown*.
    This sets the new standard for what those of us with means should be striving for at this critical moment in Earth history. ”

    Liked by 5 people

    Reply
    • rhymeswithgoalie

       /  June 14, 2018

      Not a lot of heavy industry in Berkeley, I’m guessing.

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      • Lots of renewable energy heavy industry in California. If they keep promoting it, they’ll become a global center of zero and net negative carbon emissions technology.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply
  2. wili

     /  June 13, 2018

    “BREAKING: @CityofBerkeley City Council unanimously declares a #ClimateEmergency, endorses a just citywide emergency mobilization effort to end greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible, and calls for a Bay Area town hall. “

    Full Text: https://www.cityofberkeley.info/Clerk/City_Council/2018/06_June/Documents/2018-06-12_Item_49_Declaration_of_Climate_Emergency_-_Rev.aspx

    Liked by 3 people

    Reply
  3. errg

     /  June 14, 2018

    To clarify what martinmackerel said, if A wants to short a stock, he borrows it from B, and sells it on to C. If the stock goes down, he can buy it back at a cheaper price from C (or whoever C sold it on to), and give the borrowed share back to B. If the stock goes up he does the same thing, but at a loss.

    A higher stock price benefits a company because they can raise money more cheaply, but they don’t profit from the shorts.

    I have no dog in this fight (and anything can happen in the short run, see pets.com), but for the current TSLA market cap (in the same ballpark as GM and Ford) to be at all plausible it has to not just become profitable, but become a company which either makes as many cars as GM or Ford, or makes fewer but has a much higher profit margin.

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    • Nonsense. Tesla was plausible when it was making a profit selling just Model S vehicles. Tesla has taken those profits and built X, and 3. The ‘loss’ you are seeing is due to direct investment which adds to present valuation. This is basic common sense.

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    • kassy

       /  June 14, 2018

      Satellites monitoring the state of the White Continent indicate some 200 billion tonnes a year are now being lost to the ocean as a result of melting.

      This is pushing up global sea levels by 0.6mm annually – a three-fold increase since 2012 when the last such assessment was undertaken.

      “But what we can say is that it’s too warm for Antarctica today. It’s about half a degree Celsius warmer than the continent can withstand and it’s melting about five metres of ice from its base each year, and that’s what’s triggering the sea-level contribution that we’re seeing,” he told BBC News.

      https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-44470208

      We should have avoided this point but we did not. Wasted more time talking and we still are.

      “A three-fold increase now puts Antarctica in the frame as one of the largest contributors to sea-level rise,” said Prof Shepherd, who is affiliated to Leeds University, UK.

      “The last time we looked at the polar ice sheets, Greenland was the dominant contributor. That’s no longer the case.”

      This melt will accelerate for a while:

      “At the moment, we have projections going through to 2100, which is sort of on a lifetime of what we can envisage, and actually the sea-level rise we will see is 50/60cm,” said Dr Whitehouse.

      Sea level rose by 6 cm during the 19th century and 19 cm in the 20th century (from Sea level rise on Wikipedia).

      So this century Antarctica alone will cause SLR 2-3 times that of the whole 20th century from all sources combined….

      Liked by 3 people

      Reply
      • The pie charts show the contributions of individual components of the sea-level budget (expressed in percentage of the observed global mean sea level) for two periods, 1993–2004 and 2004–2015. It clearly shows that the magnitude of almost all components has increased in recent years, particularly melting of the polar ice sheets, mostly in Greenland and to a lesser extent in Antarctica. Accelerated ice-mass loss from the ice sheets is the main cause of acceleration of the global mean sea-level rise, as revealed by satellite altimetry.

        WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2017 (PDF, 3.4 MB)

        Liked by 1 person

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  4. Hurrah for the City of Berkeley!

    Will shorts on TSLA benefit TSLA when they lose? No not really, shareholders will benefit, $1 for $1, the company itself will be unaffected one way or the other. I think a person has to have a stomach of steel to be be either long or short on TSLA. In some rudimentary sense the buyers are winning and the shorts are losing, as of today, simply because the price is going up. I think a long investor has got to have a steel stomach, simply because the price is way too high, and the slightest glitch has the potential to send the price tanking big time (look at development stage biotechs). The shorts have to have similar nerve since TSLA is owned by a large number of people that have fallen in love with the stock, which means the price can not only be divorced from reality, but can be so for much longer than one would think is possible. But if I had sufficient nerve I would consider shorting TSLA with my bet well hedged. There are no earnings (yet), and no dividends (yet); the price to sales ratio is twice that of the average stock in the S&P 500. Standard measures of measuring corporate health are not particular sterling. There may be some people selling TSLA stock with the aim of causing problems (probably the Big Guys looking to acquire the company at a lower price and then destroy it with debt after they get their payday). But the truth of the matter is that TSLA is a tempting target because its price is so far out of whack with where the company is right now; how many cars would TSLA have to sell annually so that its current price would be in line with market averages, the market itself being too high notwithstanding?

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    • Company valuation absolutely has a benefit. And the short call is a net signal showing that Tesla is a leading company. A clean energy company. To claim that company market valuation doesn’t matter to company prestige and ability to secure CAPEX is a bit counter-factual.

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  5. Off topic, but I think it is a critical issue surrounding climate change. See article about planning for climate refugees:
    https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/06/07/opinion/urgent-need-recognize-climate-refugees

    I don’t want to necessarily get into a debate on the pluses and minuses of immigration in the sense that it being discussed these days. The million climate refugees from Syria clearly show what a political mess results even if there are a “small” number of refugees that one would think could be easily absorbed throughout the world. What I am concerned with is a large number of refugees – 10 million or 50 million or more, say. It would seem to me that if there was a serious crop failure in India, China, Canada or the United States, for instance, that we could have a situation where there’s simply not enough food. Food wastage, ethanol production and meat eating issues aside, climate change could conceivably at some point reduce food supply below what is necessary for 7.6 billion people. Of course, I hope that doesn’t happen, but if it does it would seem to me that discussion of those issues in advance could be helpful. What makes the issue so difficult is that it transcends the “individual” level when considering moral and ethical issues. There is also the “national” level, and perhaps even the “human species” level. There are a number of really bad ideas in this particular “idea” universe (eugenics, Herbert Spencerism), but discussion of how the different levels (individual, society, species) might interact on a moral ethical basis is not only an important question, but one that might actually come up on practical basis in the next several decades. The essence of the question is this: how does one determine morality when there might not be any good answers? The only work that I know of that even approaches this issue is Jonathan Schell’s Fate of the Earth, written some 30 years ago or so. There is always John Stuart Mill’s “greatest good for the greatest number of people,” but this is not necessarily specific enough to deal with my “levels” premise.

    This set of issues is likely to arise if climate change turns out to be worse than what mainstream scientists are saying, but nowhere as bad as the catastrophists would have it. Almost at every turn, what has actually happened is worse than predicted, so it is certainly not outside the realm of possibility.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply
  6. kassy

     /  June 14, 2018

    Coral reef growth ‘already failing to keep pace with sea level rise’, study says

    Coral reefs, already under existential threat from rising water temperatures, face further risks as projected sea level rises will outpace the speed they are able to grow, new research suggests.

    Current growth rates in the tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean have so far kept up with modern global sea level rises – 6cm during the 19th Century and 19cm during the 20th century.

    But projections for sea level rises by the end of the 21st Century will outpace coral growth, the study says.

    “One of the most alarming things about the study is the difference between reef growth and future projections being increasingly divergent depending on which awful scenario you look at.

    “Even if you compare the rates of growth with the rates of sea level rise we’ve seen over the last 20 years then many reefs are already growing at rates that are below those levels of sea level rise.”

    About half of the reefs came into this bracket, “so there’s already a disconnect”, Prof Perry added.

    The research team used local reef growth projections in collaboration with sea level predictions based on the most likely future climate scenarios adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These provide sea level predictions based on atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.”

    and more on:
    https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/coral-reef-sea-level-rise-climate-change-global-warming-great-barrier-a8397591.html

    Now remember the new data showing the Antarctic contribution of 50/60 cm this century to sea level rise….compare that to the SLR numbers as per the RCP scenarios listed in the article…

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
  7. Jeremy in Wales

     /  June 14, 2018

    Does the Guardian have a downer on Tesla?
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/13/tesla-workers-pay-price-elon-musk-failed-promises
    I have no idea as to the veracity of the article but it is pretty scathing on the manamgement culture.

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    • Jeremy in Wales

       /  June 14, 2018

      Mangled another word!

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    • Abel Adamski

       /  June 15, 2018

      Note the main reference is to the union that is hated in Fresno for good reason, their history with ensuring the closure of the factory when it was a Toyota factory to protect the jobs in Detroit

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    • Abel Adamski

       /  June 15, 2018

      Also note that article is not open for comments, I was forced to make an OT comment on an article that was open for comment, the Gruniad is starting to morph in a concerning way

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    • UAW has been directly attacking Tesla for two years now. And there is evidence that they are anti-clean energy vehicles.

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      • Jeremy in Wales

         /  June 15, 2018

        Good to have local knowledge but it does not really explain why the grauniad is backing the assertions. Car maufacturers advertising?

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        • Don’t know. Probably because The Guardian is typically a union-supporting pub. One more instance where tribalism fails. UAW has some dark spots as a union. And though I tend to support unions, UAW’s level of interference with Tesla has been pretty egregious. Some will use this instance as an example of an ‘all unions = bad’ argument. But this would be false too.

          I think it’s more a case that UAW wants to defend ICE manufacturing and has singled out Tesla. The way they have gone about confronting it is very exploitative, domineering and aggressive and is not likely to earn any friends.

          In the larger context, the world needs the clean energy revolution to move fast. And, in the West, Tesla is the tip of the spear that’s driving it home. UAW’s attacks, in this context, have been vastly harmful.

          Like

  8. mlp in nc

     /  June 14, 2018

    To forecast winter rainfall in the Southwest, look to New Zealand in the summer. New teleconnection for early and accurate precipitation prediction
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180613101946.htm

    The researchers called the new teleconnection the New Zealand Index, because the sea surface temperature anomaly that triggers it begins in July and August in the southwestern Pacific Ocean, close to New Zealand. As the sea surface temperature in the region cools down or heats up, it causes a change in the southern Hadley cell, an atmospheric convection zone from the equator to about the 30th parallel south.

    This prompts a commensurate anomaly east of the Philippine Islands, which, in turn, results in a strengthening or weakening of the jet stream in the Northern Hemisphere, having a direct influence on the amount of rain that falls on California between November and March.

    “With the New Zealand Index, we can predict from late summer the likelihood of above- or below-normal winter precipitation in the southwestern U.S., with a correlation in the order of 0.7 — compared to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation technique, which has a correlation around 0.3 to 0.4,” said lead author Antonios Mamalakis, a UCI graduate student in civil & environmental engineering. “Our research also shows an amplification of this newly discovered teleconnection over the past four decades.”

    Liked by 1 person

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  9. Robert in New Orleans

     /  June 14, 2018

    I am of the opinion that the sky is the limit for Tesla. What about an electric Tesla:

    Lawnmower
    Motorcycle
    Bus
    Pickup Truck
    Minivan
    Farming Tractor
    Recreational Vehicle
    Jet Ski
    Speed Boat
    Snow Mobile

    In short, many things that are powered by internal combustion engines are ripe for conversion to electric operation. The name TESLA is considered the gold standard for electric cars and would apply to many other things as well if judiciously applied.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
    • Abel Adamski

       /  June 15, 2018

      I doubt it, many other players getting into those fields, AND Elon was a keen Motorbike rider in his teens, and was nearly killed – States categorically he will NOT be making “motorcycles” – some really cool ones coming on the market, even Harley is dipping it’s toes in

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    • John S

       /  June 15, 2018

      ZF Group pretty solid. This bus drive has been available for a few years now, was used in the trial elec buses partly funded by (previous) South Austalian gov grant

      Fully integrated drive, suspension, brakes can retrofit to any exisiting bus or bus production assembly line. Attach power source of choice – battery, o/h trolley etc

      Single axle with 2 motors – 2 x 11,000 Nm (2 x 8,100 lb/ft) 2 x 125 kW
      With that torque can easily accelerate a fully loaded articulated long bus to traffic speed (Just ignore the fine particulates from shredding the tyres)
      Compare the Chinese Yutong YTM280 single bus drive motor at 2,400 Nm, 350kW

      Like

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    • John S

       /  June 15, 2018

      ZF also have an inline elec motor for light buses/commercial vehicles. Can be all elec, part of hybrid.

      https://www.zf.com/corporate/en_de/products/product_range/buses/buses_citybus_cetrax.shtml

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    • Add solar panels, solar roofs, and battery storage packs.

      Will add that Tesla is unlikely to do a motorcycle under Elon anytime soon. But we are already looking at electric trucks from Tesla.

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    • Chainsaws, too. I use a 5′ two-man saw (if I could figure out how to insert photos I would show you what this looks like) with my brother to cut drought-killed aspen logs, haul them to my house, and cut rounds with the electric chainsaw. Then use an electric splitter. Driving my 22-yr-old Toyota pickup the few miles up the mountain (and mostly coasting back down) for stove wood is both my vacation-heat getaway and exercise plan! Unfortunately, my small backup solar electric system cannot handle such a chainsaw. I also mow the neighbor’s yard (my own is totally native + a little extra watering) with an electric lawn mower (lighter, quieter, no exhaust to breathe, easy to start). I’m letting the showy milkweeds and coneflowers encroach into the lawn, more and more, every year. Every bit counts, I have to believe.

      Like

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  10. Robert in New Orleans

     /  June 14, 2018

    Elon Musk’s Boring Company to build high-speed Chicago airport link
    http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/14/technology/elon-musk-boring-company-chicago/index.html

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
  11. bobinspain

     /  June 14, 2018

    There is nothing good about this Robert. What about the poorest? It all strikes me like gimmicks. Like having a car matters to someone who has to spend half their day lookining for a decent drop of water. This is not important.

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    • John S

       /  June 14, 2018

      To take one point, a lot of poor people rely on glacial melt for their water.

      “Calculated on the basis of an average car newly registered in Germany in 2016, this means that one kilogram of glacier ice is lost every five hundred meters by car”

      https://www.uibk.ac.at/newsroom/glacier-mass-loss-past-the-point-of-no-return.html.en

      Gloabl sales of ICE cars and light commercials topped 80 million in 2017

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
    • The melting glaciers are coming in significant part due to the approximately 1 billion fossil fuel burning vehicles in the world presently. Any rational person would realize that it is absolutely critical to the poor and rich alike that we transition these to clean energy as soon as possible.

      We, as environmentalists and clean energy advocates need to live in the real world. Not some imaginary future that doesn’t include homes, lights, or transportation. We need to make the human system work for the world. And that involves a mass transition to clean energy. If you don’t support that, then I am sorry to say that you’re not really helping in a comprehensive way.

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    • What’s happening in the Antarctic cannot be changed without a transition to clean energy. Only focusing on the problems at hand without also highlighting appropriate solutions and responses is an exercise in folly.

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  12. bobinspain

     /  June 14, 2018

    For what we are about to receive, we should be truly repentant
    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-74.76,-305.79,392

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    • mlp in nc

       /  June 15, 2018

      Yup. Watching Earth Nullschool is addicting. Here is the 850 hPa wind overlay. Tropical Atlantic air is being sent directly to the Arctic via two paths, one straight up the Eastern Front of the Rockies to the storm in the Beaufort Sea, where it is still hanging on. The eastern flow is shuttling around two storms in the North Atlantic directly to the North Pole.
      The more southerly of those two storms is off Labrador, where is has been bouncing back and forth the short distance south to the junction of the North Atlantic Hot Blob with the Cold Sport for nearly three weeks. Nice hot/cold ocean junction there.

      Like

      Reply
  13. bobinspain

     /  June 14, 2018

    Something to soothe our collective nerves:

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  14. bobinspain

     /  June 14, 2018

    Embrace kindness. For all our sakes. We are great together. There is so much joy.

    Like

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  15. bobinspain

     /  June 14, 2018

    I sincerely hope that we can hang on to what we are. Beautiful.

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    • What we are, at our best, is innovators and problem solvers. That is the beauty of how we have survived thus far. And if we do that now, we can continue.

      Like

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  16. bobinspain

     /  June 15, 2018

    Powerful and sad

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
  17. islandraider

     /  June 15, 2018

    Did CB move to Spain & develop a taste for classical music?

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  18. wili

     /  June 15, 2018

    a respected investor says, “Capitalism is killing the planet and needs to change”

    “Jeremy Grantham, the longtime investor famous for calling the last two major bubbles in the market, is urging capitalists and “mainstream economists” to recognize the looming threat of climate change.

    “Capitalism and mainstream economics simply cannot deal with these problems. Mainstream economics largely ignore [them],” Grantham, who co-founded GMO in 1977, said Tuesday in an impassioned speech at the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago. “We deforest the land, we degrade our soils, we pollute and overuse our water and we treat air like an open sewer, and we do it all off the balance sheet.”

    This negligence is due in large part to how short-sighted corporations can be, Grantham said. “Anything that happens to a corporation over 25 years out doesn’t exist for them, therefore, as I like to say, grandchildren have no value” to them, he said.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/13/gmos-grantham-capitalists-need-to-wake-up-to-climate-change-reality.html

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    • Fossil fuel burning is killing the planet. Capitalism and free market thinking have enabled that to great extent. But that doesn’t mean that capitalistic systems can’t run on clean energy. As a liberal/progressive democrat, I support systems that include elements of equality and that also include checks on rampant capitalism. I think these checks also enable better responses to climate change.

      However, I would rather we stepped back from pure ideological arguments and look at exceptions to these basic rules with an eye toward using the tools at hand. Tesla, as a corporation, for example, takes the long view. In this way, they run directly counter to most current companies and current free market concepts of capitalism. However, it was a basic view of original market intent that innovation and long-term projects would be funded by investment. It is this spirit that Tesla has, ironically, managed to tap. And if other companies follow their model, the world will be a lot better off for it.

      It is for this reason that I tend to look at good actors and bad actors in any given frame of reference. Ideological arguments can confuse people because the ideological frame doesn’t often fully translate to the real world. And practical efforts to confront climate change and other dangers will often require mixed responses from government, industry, communities, and individuals. Using capitalistic structures such as investment and mass production to provide people access to clean energy will be necessary, for example. But this does not revoke the need to continue to work for equality and social justice. Nor does it mean that those elements of action are not also very important. But the energy transition itself is critical. And all tools at hand should be used to get it moving as rapidly as possible.

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  19. Andy_in_SD

     /  June 15, 2018

    Liked by 1 person

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  20. Robert McLachlan

     /  June 15, 2018

    My late-night climate fix idea: a modest price on CO2. But once you’ve caused a ton of CO2 to be emitted you incur an annual fee you have to pay every year, forever, like the lifetime of the fossil CO2 you emitted, and your estate inherits the liability. Perhaps it would focus people’s mind on what we are actually doing.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
    • Leland Palmer

       /  June 16, 2018

      Oh, wonderful idea. Very educational about what is actually going on, I think.

      But the people who pay should primarily be the ones who have some control over the technology. Being a consumer of fossil fuels is very difficult to avoid, in modern society.

      And maybe create some sort of cap and trade arrangement, where people get financially rewarded for planting trees and other carbon negative activities?

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  21. Leland Palmer

     /  June 16, 2018

    Hi Robert-

    I’m glad you blew the whistle on Seeking Alpha. There is a truly amazing stream of negative misinformation on Tesla coming from that site.

    Not that they are alone. It’s like Hell opened up and all the yappy little bats flew out, spewing every sort of disinformation and persuasion imaginable, all aimed at sabotaging or slowing down a clean energy revolution.

    It must be terrible to be a low information voter, subjected to and believing so much commercially motivated propaganda. So much of it is so sneaky…it must come in totally under the radar for many people.

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  22. bobinspain

     /  June 17, 2018

    Dear Robert, I agree with you on so many levels, but I fail to understand how it adresses the destruction that we’re witnessing. It’s not just about how we generate and use energy, it’s about how we move on from centuries of neglecful and destructive behaviour in general. Generating new sources of energy is a fine and great ideal, but can we learn to become conservers and custodians? I’ve spoken before about ‘kindness’ and it warrants a deeper explanation in that it isn’t some spiritual generalisation, but a behavioral change that’s required. It’s about ‘altruism’. We’ve lost our identity, as a species. Whilst it’s true that nature is generally violent and exploitative, we’ve missed the opportunity to move on and embrace some of the ideologies that are already there:
    1/ decentralise – move towards local food production and regenerate local farming communities
    2/ conserve – protect what’s left, for everyone’s sake
    3/ re-educate – conservation and control of resources vs. universal wastage, personal gain
    4/ the anarchist/ syndicalist model in its most positive aspect. Smaller, more localised government.
    5/ caring communities – smaller groups of people working together with a common ideology
    https://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/community-wind-turbine-to-earn-village-75k-a-year-1-3242645

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    • If you talk about such ideals while still attacking renewable energy, you are nothing more than a hypocrite. Clean energy is conservation, it is kindness. You’ve had your comment for today. Do better.

      Like

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