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Tesla Achieves Model 3 Production Goals

Tesla achieved a major surge in clean energy vehicle production during the second quarter of 2018.

According to reports from Tesla, the all renewable energy corporation produced a whopping 53,339 electrical vehicles during Q2. Of these, 24,751 were Model S and X. Meanwhile, Tesla produced an amazing 28,578 Model 3s.

Overall, this is almost double the 25,708 EVs produced during Q2 of 2017. A very impressive jump that included Tesla exceeding 5,000 Model 3s produced during the final week of June with a total weekly EV production rate of nearly 7,000 (see below).

(Tesla hits clean energy vehicle production milestones during Q2 of 2018.)

These are huge numbers for Tesla — showing that the company is achieving its goal of mass produced clean energy automobiles. A feat that is even now setting off shock-waves through the global auto market (and a major smear and fear campaign at the hands of pro-fossil fuel Tesla shorts).

Tesla appears to be well on its way to hitting around 200,000 EVs produced by the end of 2018 — with 88,000 coming out of Tesla’s factories in the first half of the year. If present trends hold, it appears that Tesla will hit between 60,000 and 75,000 EVs during Q3, with still more on the way during Q4.

(Tesla crushes Q2 production during big Model 3 surge. Image source: Inside EVs.)

Such high rates of production from Tesla’s multiple vehicle lines are now likely to enable Tesla to begin leveraging economies of scale to increase cash influx. Setting up Tesla’s planned profitability during the second half of the year. Meanwhile, Tesla revenues continue to rapidly grow. All good news.

I’ve said it before here, but I’ll say it again. Tesla’s success is critical to the clean energy revolution. It is the only major all-clean energy automaker in the West. One that is leveraging a combination of 100 percent renewable energy technologies — solar, batteries, and EVs — to rapidly and competitively move into markets traditionally dominated by fossil fuel based industries. And it is this kind of direct replacement of fossil fuels with renewables that will enable rapid global carbon emissions reduction and movement away from a future blighted by catastrophic climate change.

(Tesla team celebrates its achievement of 5,000 Model 3s produced within one week. Image source: Tesla.)

 

Full Tesla press release follows:

PALO ALTO, Calif., July 02, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — In the last seven days of Q2, Tesla produced 5,031 Model 3 and 1,913 Model S and X vehicles.

Q2 production totaled 53,339 vehicles, a 55% increase from Q1, making it the most productive quarter in Tesla history by far. For the first time, Model 3 production (28,578) exceeded combined Model S and X production (24,761), and we produced almost three times the amount of Model 3s than we did in Q1. Our Model 3 weekly production rate also more than doubled during the quarter, and we did so without compromising quality.

GA4, our new General Assembly line for Model 3, was responsible for roughly 20% of Model 3s produced last week, with quality from that line being as good as our regular GA3 line. We expect that GA3 alone can reach a production rate of 5,000 Model 3s per week soon, but GA4 helped to get us there faster and will also help to exceed that rate.

Tesla expects to increase production to 6,000 Model 3s per week by late next month. We also reaffirm our guidance for positive GAAP net income and cash flow in Q3 and Q4, despite negative pressures from a weaker USD and likely higher tariffs for vehicles imported into China as well as components procured from China.

Q2 deliveries totaled 40,740 vehicles, of which 18,440 were Model 3, 10,930 were Model S, and 11,370 were Model X. Model S and X deliveries are in line with our guidance provided on May 3. As we previously noted, we are in the process of changing the quarterly production pattern of those vehicles for the various worldwide regions to ensure a more linear flow of deliveries through the quarter. Both orders and deliveries for Model S and X were higher in Q2 than a year ago. Our overall target for 100,000 Model S and Model X deliveries in 2018 is unchanged.

11,166 Model 3 vehicles and 3,892 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q2, and will be delivered in early Q3. The high number of customer vehicles in transit for Model 3 was primarily due to a significant increase in production towards the end of the quarter.

The remaining net Model 3 reservations count at the end of Q2 still stood at roughly 420,000 even though we have now delivered 28,386 Model 3 vehicles to date. When we start to provide customers an opportunity to see and test drive the car at their local store, we expect that our orders will grow faster than our production rate. Model 3 Dual Motor All Wheel Drive and Model 3 Dual Motor All Wheel Drive Performance cars will also be available in our stores shortly.

The last 12 months were some of the most difficult in Tesla’s history, and we are incredibly proud of the whole Tesla team for achieving the 5,000 unit Model 3 production rate. It was not easy, but it was definitely worth it.

**********************

Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5%. Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements herein, including statements regarding future production and delivery of Model S, Model X and Model 3, expected cash flow and net income results, and growth in demand for our vehicles, are “forward-looking statements” that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially, including the risks identified in our SEC filings. Tesla disclaims any obligation to update this information.

 

 

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56 Comments

  1. Kiwi Griff

     /  July 4, 2018

    Fossil Fuels Are Likely To Go Bust Regardless Of Climate Action

    Wind turbines, solar panels and electric vehicles are getting cheaper and more abundant by the day, which is hurting demand for coal, oil and natural gas. As demand falls for conventional fuels, so will prices. Companies that laid claim to coal mines or oil wells, won’t be able to turn a profit by digging up that fuel. They will default on their loans, pushing banks to the brink of failure. Prices are likely to crash before 2035, costing the global economy as much as $4 trillion, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

    As with everything, there will be winners and losers. Countries that import large volumes of fossil fuels — namely China, Japan and much of Europe — would likely be better off, having transitioned to cheap, renewable power and electric cars. They would likely also be spending more money on clean technology produced at home and sending less money to fossil fuel producers overseas.

    On the other hand, countries that produce and export a lot of oil, coal or gas — namely the United States, Canada, Russia and much of the Middle East — would face economic upheaval. Canadian tar sands and American shale oil operations, which produce the most expensive oil, would be hardest hit. Middle Eastern countries, which produce the cheapest oil, would likely fare best. Mercure expects OPEC countries would meet most of the remaining demand for oil.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/03/fossil-fuels-are-likely-to-go-bust-regardless-of-climate-action/

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0182-1

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    • rhymeswithgoalie

       /  July 4, 2018

      I would like to remind everyone of the long life of ICE cars. People will be buying ever-cheaper used cars, buoying the price (and profitability) of gasoline for a long while, giving oil a long tail into the future. Even as individual countries make the transition, there are profits to be made shipping unwanted used ICE cars to other markets which will retain relatively high consumption rates of especially the cheaper, dirtier flavors of gasoline (or diesel).

      In the same way that all of those flood-damaged* cars that are legally required to be scrapped end up on used car lots, there are entire market ecosystems that live off of squeezing the last profits out of mainstream society’s discards.
      ____
      *Many sellers of cheaper products on Amazon, for instance, are bulk dealers that snap up inventories from failed businesses, including smoke- or water-damaged goods that have been written off by insured storehouses.

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      • Actually, if you interrupt the ICE mass production chain enough, it will be difficult to produce these cars cheaply en masse. See Ford abandoning the sedan market…

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        • rhymeswithgoalie

           /  July 5, 2018

          Even if ICE *production* dropped off faster than anyone predicts, there’s enough existing stock to burn petrol for decades.

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        • First goal is bending down the curve. Next goal is getting those ICEs off the road at rising rates.

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    • Renewable energy is climate action. Climate action policy speeds public access to clean energy and provides the social framework in which renewable energy systems can thrive. If renewable energy systems are powerful enough economically to beat coal, gas, and oil, then it is due in large part to the work and investment committed by the public in the past paying dividends now.

      I would not, however, make the mistake of calling the renewable energy revolution ‘inevitable.’ It is very strong. But there is a serious fight ongoing now to sink it. And we should support every pro renewable public policy possible at this time. They’re very helpful, save livelihoods and lives by reducing future harm, and speed access to clean energy systems. All are necessary and helpful.

      Liked by 2 people

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  2. Connecticut Gordon

     /  July 4, 2018

    Hi Robert
    Nice summary, as always. I found the tweet from Ford about Tesla production figures, which I am sure you are aware of, totally tone deaf and nasty. In short exactly what I would expect from the mainstream auto industry.
    I see that the stock market shorts are still trying their best to undermine Musk at every juncture. Goldman Sachs in particular stand out as one of the worst [and also awful at market predictions in general]. I could give a very detailed explanation of why short selling should be illegal. It will never happen here in USA though.
    I think you have made a slight mistake in paragraph 3. You mention the 50% increase over Q2 2018. I think that must be Q1 2018
    Cheers
    Gordon

    Liked by 1 person

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    • Worth noting that Ford is involved in its own emissions scandal at the moment where customers are filing complaints about carbon monoxide recirculating into the passenger cabin in addition to a mass vehicle recall.

      Liked by 1 person

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  3. And despite these production reports, the market turned around and clobbered them for a while. Demonstrating the influence of somebody who wants to protect the Tesla shorters of the world.

    Great article here on the powers aligned against Tesla, as well as a cogent analysis why Tesla is in no financial trouble now and likely never will be, despite its detractors:

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/5/29/1767826/-The-War-on-Tesla-Musk-and-the-Fight-for-the-Future

    Liked by 4 people

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    • Thanks for this, Ginger.

      It’s worth noting that the troll/bot army arrayed against Tesla is quite large as well. This reminds me of the fear and smear running up to an election. Given the amount of heat out there, I’d guess that millions and millions are being spent at this time to morph the media conversation.

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    • There is a serious monetary interest involved as well. The 12 billion in short money is no drop in the bucket. But what’s more obvious is that the fossil fuel industry has aligned with Tesla’s other detractors in a long game to try to delay and deny the progress of this emerging clean energy titan.

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      • Abel Adamski

         /  July 5, 2018

        IMO the reality is that if they could crush Tesla, the EV push would slow to a crawl to effectively peter out in most developed countries, the existing Auto Companies have only built limited factories and production lines for all their hype and published plans and they can supply the few countries that do demand EV’s , otherwise back to business with their sunk cost existing lines and engineering such as the big US car companies are aiming for as the ads mentioned above point out

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        • I doubt they could put the renewable genie back in the bottle completely. The net effect would be to slow western EV rollouts, thus ceding leadership to China and others. We saw a similar process on a slower time scale RE solar manufacturing. Early western solar leaders were attacked in the market by pro-fossil fuel forces aligned with investment shorts.

          IMO, Tesla is rather strong compared to even these early solar companies. And despite what’s happening in the market right now (a short sentiment driven sell-off), the company is in a very good position.

          Like

  4. Jeremy in Wales

     /  July 4, 2018

    One thing that has probably passed un-noticed here is BPs acquisition of Chargemaster in the UK which has some 6,500 charge points for electric cars in the UK. Last year Shell acquired New Motion with some 30,000 charge points across Europe.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/28/bp-buys-uks-biggest-electric-car-charger-network-for-130m

    This can be viewed in two ways:
    That these two oil giants are trying to re-align themselves as Energy and not just Oil companies. That they can see which way the wind is blowing and are taking positive steps to introduce Ultra Fast Chargers onto their forecourts, improve tap and pay arrangements to replace the confusing array of payment methods currently in existence. That the competition keeps prices down and enables the switch to clean energy.

    The alternative view is that this is a cynical ploy to slow the spread of electric vehicles and that they will price gouge the small market and stifle innovation and competition. In Europe especially in the larger cities many people do not have access to off road parking or even near their house or flat making home charging impossible.

    Their track record is not great so my inner-cynic says this is all a charade but I hope genuinely that I am wrong and that they have seen the light which has been shining brightly in their faces for the past 50 years!

    Liked by 3 people

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    • Abel Adamski

       /  July 5, 2018

      I suspect option 2

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    • Shell is upping the ante on its greenwash campaign. For my part, I do not believe that this time is any different from the past. I hope they prove me wrong. But they have a major conflict of interest and I think there’s a significant amount of cynicism surrounding Shell’s attitude to these investments.

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  5. wili

     /  July 4, 2018

    “The West is burning, and it’s barely July

    The heat is breaking temperature records coast-to-coast, drought covers half of the country, and — sure enough — wildfires are already enveloping the West. More than 30 large fires are burning in 12 states right now.

    In Utah, dozens of homes have been destroyed and hundreds more are threatened from a largely out-of-control blaze in the eastern part of the state. In Colorado, some of the largest fires in state history have already drawn comparisons to the nightmare fire seasons of 1988 and 2002.

    And then there’s California, where the “County fire” began on Saturday near Sacramento and quickly spread out of control, threatening hundreds of homes and growing at a rate of 1,000 football fields an hour. It’s the latest megafire in a state still recovering from the most damaging wildfire season in history.

    Wildfires across California have burned more than twice the five-year average so far this year, as of July 1. The County fire alone has burned 70,000 acres — twice the size of San Francisco and more than every other fire in the state this year combined. Over the weekend, smoke and ash from the fire drifted over the Bay Area, reminding residents of last year’s horrific blazes and partially blocking out the sun…”

    https://grist.org/article/the-west-is-burning-and-its-barely-july/

    Liked by 1 person

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  6. Greg

     /  July 4, 2018

    morrisgan:
    “Took our Model 3 on a 600 mile round trip and stopped once each way for supercharging. The car range was at 60 miles when we stopped, plugged in and went into the restaurant. The charge started at 117kw. Before the meal was served, the phone beeped and said we had enough to make it to our destination. We ate our meal and returned to the car: 240 miles of charge (about 60kw-hrs) in 40 minutes. Bottom line: the trip took LESS time than in an ICE car because we refueled the car while we ate. No waiting in line for our turn to pump gas, no pumping gas at all, and half the price for the fuel. The future is looking pretty bright right now!”

    https://electrek.co/2018/07/04/tesla-deploys-record-number-superchargers-model-3-fleet/

    Liked by 3 people

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  7. PlazaRed

     /  July 4, 2018

    “Tesla team celebrates its achievement of 5,000 Model 3s produced within one week.”

    168 hours, so 5000/168 is about 30 vehicles an hour, or 1 CAR EVERY 2 per minutes.
    As we say in the UK, “well done you chaps, you all deserve a medal.”

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    • I’m thinking that Tesla will be pushing 6,000 per week in August.

      420,000 pre-orders on the books would take 84 weeks to burn through at 5K per week production. Sustained rates of 5 K look possible by end of Q3 with peaks around 6-7 K.

      IMO, Tesla will have a surge capacity for near 10 K by early 2019.

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  8. I would like to remind people than when it comes to oil, the US is a net energy importer, not exporter. Net, we import something like 40% of our oil. So if China benefits, we will too. China imports over half of it oil, and Japan imports almost all that they use. Since oil production is ever reaching for the lower and lower grade resource while worldwide consumption continues to rise, it will be interesting to see which wallops us first: decline in fossil fuel use due to unavailability or wide reaching climate catastrophe due to overuse of fossil fuels. In either case the countries that have transitioned the most to renewables will benefit the most (or be harmed the least). After all in the current world, we eat, move, clothe ourselves, manufacture largely (and reproduce) based on the availability of high density energy. We need to transition, but we have a lot to transition from.

    By the way, most of the oil and gas frackers are going to go broke anyway, since the prices are not high enough to sustain most operations. They are only kept alive by the willingness of investors to keep lending them money. For more information google Art Berman and watch one of his videos.

    It is possible that the car companies, if they wanted to, could dramatically increase the efficiency of the ICE to hold electric cars at bay. However they would rather sell SUV’s, etc in the short run. They could, if they were really interested in survival, sell products that compete with Tesla. However Trump is trying to get rid of CAFE standards which will probably keep the large car manufacturers on their current path of disfunctionality. Seems like the electric car ads have disappeared; now all we have are ads for SUVs and muscle cars.

    From what I have read, it appears that a changeover in vehicle technology needs at least ten years to result in most of the auto fleet to be changed. Personally I think we should be reducing the need for vehicles in the first place given the very GHG emissions given off in the production of cement (takes a lot of energy to separate calcium from carbon to make cement which results in huge quantities of CO2 as a waste product).

    Liked by 3 people

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    • Renewables provide resiliency both to economic shocks related to fossil fuels even as they provide a cushion vs worsening climate harms. Those governed by rational, long-term thinking keep pushing for their rapid deployment. To me, the detractors sound increasingly unhinged.

      Liked by 1 person

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  9. wili

     /  July 4, 2018

    “With the decline in car ownership for young people and the increased interest in all-electric vehicles, VW is announcing a new all-electric car-sharing platform called ‘WE’ that will launch next year…

    Volkswagen says that the first electric vehicle-on-demand services for the ‘WE’ platform will launch in Germany in 2019 and it will be extended “to major cities in Europe, North America and Asia as early as 2020.”

    VW’s electric vehicles are already being used in third-party car-sharing services. For example, Zipcar is [building] a fleet of over 300 all-electric VW e-Golfs to be available for a car-sharing in London…”

    https://electrek.co/2018/07/04/vw-all-electric-car-sharing-platform-we/

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  10. Abel Adamski

     /  July 5, 2018

    Another factor with hotter weather and bitumen rds

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-05/melting-road-in-far-north-queensland/9942800
    Melting bitumen leaves motorists ‘sinking’ into Queensland road, destroys tyres

    Emergency repairs had to be made to a road in far north Queensland after bitumen melted around car tyres, causing traffic chaos.
    The Department of Transport and Main Roads was forced to close the Malanda Millaa Millaa Road near Tarzali on the Atherton Tablelands yesterday after receiving several complaints.

    Motorist Bridget Daley said her tyres were covered in bitumen, which had also flown off, striking her bumper bar and snapping it off.

    “I was absolutely horrified to find that there was three inches of bitumen coated around all four wheels of my vehicle,” she said.

    “It was like we were insects caught in a spider’s web and we were sinking.

    “There were people that were pulled up on the side of the road and they were in total and complete disbelief as to what had happened to their vehicles.”

    Liked by 2 people

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    • Similar thing happened to our car. Somewhere near Burlington, VT, the blacktop had melted and got squeezed onto a tire. My daughter thought she had a flat because of the rhythmic thumping noise. La Brea.

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  11. Mike Keith

     /  July 5, 2018

    Good news though their goal was 5,000 Model 3s per week by the end of 2017. They’re 6 months late on that and it’s not clear they can maintain that rate but it’s still good news. It’s forgiveable to be optimistic on the ramp up but it can be disappointing when the goal is missed by half a year.

    Still, keep going and I hope the others can catch up.

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    • Tesla provided stretch goals and then raced to achieve them. At this point, no-one else is producing high quality EVs at this rate. BYD and BAIC are likely close on volume. But Tesla’s combined battery and EV production volume is certainly shaking up the market.

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    • There was also a deliberately-set fire and one known incident of industrial sabotage during that period, lest we forget.

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  12. Abel Adamski

     /  July 5, 2018

    Something to ponder
    https://www.techtimes.com/articles/229630/20180607/alien-apocalypse-model-reveals-how-climate-change-impacts-energy-intense-civilizations.htm?utm_source=pc&utm_medium=www.techtimes.com&utm_campaign=plecom

    Alien Apocalypse: Model Reveals How Climate Change Impacts Energy-Intense Civilizations

    Climate change threatens life on Earth. It may have also killed alien civilizations in energy-intense worlds.

    Adam Frank, an astrophysicist from the University of Rochester in New York, and colleagues studied how alien civilizations may rise and fall if their planet’s limited natural resources are increasingly converted into energy.

    The study aims to get a 10,000-light-year view of man-made climate change and show how a technologically advanced population and its planet may develop together.

    Frank said that planet Earth’s response to civilization building is what climate change is all about.

    “The laws of physics demand that any young population, building an energy-intensive civilization like ours, is going to have feedback on its planet,” he said.

    The researcher cited the importance of studying the impact of climate change from an astrobiological perspective. Climate change in a cosmic context may provide better insights on what happens to Earth and how humans have to address it.
    Potential Scenarios For Energy-Intense Civilizations

    Using a mathematical model, Frank and colleagues found four potential scenarios that may occur for energy-intense civilizations.

    By thinking planets and civilizations, including alien ones, as a whole, the researchers argued that they can better predict what needs to be done for human civilization to survive.

    Three of the four trajectories ended in an apocalypse. The remaining one, which involved a path that converted the whole society to sustainable energy sources worked, but this happened only when civilizations acknowledged the damage they did to their planet and responded in the right way.

    Frank said that this scenario is also the most frightening because regardless that people did the right thing, their population could still collapse if they wait too long.

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    • Physics did not demand that we take the fossil fuel based development path. Those were business and political decisions. We have the opportunity to correct that path and transition to renewables now. That said, it’s pretty obvious that those civilizations that do not avoid or break fossil fuel burning dependence are basically signing their death warrant.

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  13. kassy

     /  July 5, 2018

    So PM 2.5 particles contribute to pollution. The science case is pretty clear but EPA won’t act on it (see last quoted paragraph/linked articles in article below:

    A Frightening New Reason to Worry About Air Pollution

    A massive study solidifies the link between particulates from cars and diabetes.

    It’s fairly well-known that a bad diet, a lack of exercise, and genetics can all contribute to type 2 diabetes. But a new global study points to an additional, surprising culprit: the air pollution emitted by cars and trucks.

    Though other research has shown a link between diabetes and air pollution in the past, this study is one of the largest of its kind, and it’s unique because it both is longitudinal and includes several types of controls. What’s more, it also quantifies exactly how many diabetes cases in the world are attributable to air pollution: 14 percent in 2016 alone. In the U.S., it found, air pollution is responsible for 150,000 cases of diabetes.

    Scientists are just beginning to understand what exactly makes PM 2.5 so harmful, but a major reason is that it’s so small and contains toxic metals. Its size allows it to penetrate the lungs and enter the bloodstream. There, it can circulate to different organs and cause inflammation. The inflammation increases insulin resistance. Eventually, this insulin resistance can become so severe the pancreas becomes unable to pump out enough insulin to compensate, and diabetes can set in.

    But this study and others might not lead to a tightening of the PM 2.5 standards because, under a rule proposed by the Trump administration in April, all studies used by the EPA to make air and water regulations must make their underlying data publicly available. As my colleague Robinson Meyer reported, studies like this and others, which show the detrimental health impacts of pollution, are based on health data that is confidential and cannot be de-anonymized.

    and more on:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/07/a-frightening-new-reason-to-worry-about-air-pollution/564428/

    Liked by 1 person

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    • So one issue that I look at is ozone.

      Add high heat and ICE vehicle emissions, coal power plants and gas power plants and you end up with a surface chemical soup that rapidly transitions to high ozone levels. Ozone inhibits one’s ability to take in oxygen. And this creates a stress to anyone with even minor heart or lung problems. Even healthy people can experience breathing difficulty under such conditions. In this case climate change enhances the harmful impact of a pollutant that is already a problem by increasing surface ozone production in regions where fossil fuel use and related emissions are high.

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  14. wili

     /  July 5, 2018

    There are more and more stories out there about the now nearly global heatwave going on right now, and it’s connections to GW.

    “Red-hot planet: All-time heat records have been set all over the world during the past week”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/03/hot-planet-all-time-heat-records-have-been-set-all-over-the-world-in-last-week/?utm_term=.03a6bff89ba1

    Liked by 1 person

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  15. kassy

     /  July 5, 2018

    Global warming may be twice what climate models predict

    A new study based on evidence from past warm periods suggests global warming may be double what is forecast.

    Future global warming may eventually be twice as warm as projected by climate models and sea levels may rise six metres or more even if the world meets the 2°C target, according to an international team of researchers from 17 countries.

    The findings published last week in Nature Geoscience are based on observational evidence from three warm periods over the past 3.5 million years when the world was 0.5°C-2°C warmer than the pre-industrial temperatures of the 19th Century.

    The research also revealed how large areas of the polar ice caps could collapse and significant changes to ecosystems could see the Sahara Desert become green and the edges of tropical forests turn into fire dominated savanna.

    “Observations of past warming periods suggest that a number of amplifying mechanisms, which are poorly represented in climate models, increase long-term warming beyond climate model projections,” said lead author, Prof Hubertus Fischer of the University of Bern.

    “This suggests the carbon budget to avoid 2°C of global warming may be far smaller than estimated, leaving very little margin for error to meet the Paris targets.”

    To get their results, the researchers looked at three of the best-documented warm periods, the Holocene thermal maximum (5000-9000 years ago), the last interglacial (129,000-116,000 years ago) and the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3-3 million years ago).

    The warming of the first two periods was caused by predictable changes in the Earth’s orbit, while the mid-Pliocene event was the result of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations that were 350-450ppm – much the same as today.

    “Climate models appear to be trustworthy for small changes, such as for low emission scenarios over short periods, say over the next few decades out to 2100. But as the change gets larger or more persistent, either because of higher emissions, for example a business-as-usual-scenario, or because we are interested in the long term response of a low emission scenario, it appears they underestimate climate change,” said co-author Prof Katrin Meissner, Director of the University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre.

    “This research is a powerful call to act. It tells us that if today’s leaders don’t urgently address our emissions, global warming will bring profound changes to our planet and way of life – not just for this century but well beyond.”

    https://phys.org/news/2018-07-global-climate.html

    In the recent IPCC draft they upped the remaining carbon budget by a bit…guess we can remove that again.

    Recently we also learned cloud feedback which is the main culprit for the 1.5-4 C warming spread in projections will itself lead to 3 C warming. For more details on that see:

    https://cosmosmagazine.com/climate/how-clouds-complicate-global-warming

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    • We use the 5-6 C long term climate sensitivity for each doubling of CO2e implied by paleoclimate and originally identified by James Hansen. We have been quite consistent in citing this figure for longer time periods. The ECS figure (approx 3 C) is likely a good measure for predicting warming over approx 1 Century time scales. It’s also worth noting that IPCC has been very accurate when predicting warming over decadal time scales. So to be clear, the models are working for present time frames. However, there is a large upside long term warming risk. Which is all the more reason to be very aggressive about emissions reductions and transitioning to renewable energy.

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  16. Abel Adamski

     /  July 5, 2018

    Over the longer term
    https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/global-warming-may-be-twice-what-climate-models-predict
    A new study based on evidence from past warm periods suggests global warming may be double what is forecast.

    Like

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  17. wharf rat

     /  July 5, 2018

    https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2018/07/05/severe-weather-flash-flood-watches-warnings/

    Liked by 1 person

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  18. Andy_in_SD

     /  July 5, 2018

    Massive and toxic algae bloom threatens Florida coasts with another lost summer

    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article213849429.html

    Liked by 1 person

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  19. Jeremy in Wales

     /  July 5, 2018

    Demand for alternatively fuelled vehicles such as hybrids and pure electrics increased by 45% compared to June 2017 to take a market share of 6.6% in the UK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/05/uk-sales-of-new-cars-fell-in-june-as-drivers-shun-diesels

    While this is progress it is not enough to reduce demand for oil, as the vehicle population grows (37.5 million vehicles as at 31/03/2017) nor does it do much to reduce CO2 emissions due to the switch from diesel to petrol powered cars. Still a long way to go.

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    • We’re getting there. A lot closer than we were a couple of years ago. Looking at a net global reduction of oil consumption by approx 2020 to 2024 on present trend line. In addition, this is helping to flag a growth rate that would otherwise be far faster.

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    • vastmandana

       /  July 5, 2018

      This is deceptive… The actual current ramp on all fronts required for rapid transition is skyrocketing… Multiple new battery giga factories, charging infrastructure, and EV ramp in the pipeline… It is a Cascade… Once u try it, you can’t go back… And you show your friends and… We are at a global Kodak moment

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
      • I agree that we’re at a Kodak type moment here. Pretty amazing. The fossil fuel industry leveled attacks are the only thing that are giving me pause at the moment RE EV optimism. I think we can win this battle and get mass EV production on track with net global carbon emissions reductions in the near term offing. But we need to fight to defend market leaders like Tesla to make that happen, IMO.

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  20. Em Butrus Butrus Galli

     /  July 5, 2018

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44730887

    ‘Deadly heat wave kills 33 across southern Quebec’

    “The sweltering weather began last Friday with temperatures hitting 35C (95F) and high humidity.”

    Some people might read that and think 95F isn’t that high, but when I lived in Aberdeen, Scotland for a year in 1979, during a brief heat wave it got up to 74F. It’s so far north and usually much cooler that 6 elderly people in town died of heat stroke. So part of it depends on what people are used to.

    Unfortunately the article does not specify what the humidity was, an important component in determining the wet bulb temperature.

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    • This is more likely due to high temperatures hitting a region that does not typically see such extreme heat. Less air conditioning, a population that is not acclimated, and a region that doesn’t have heat stress protocols in place.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
  21. vastmandana

     /  July 5, 2018

    Once people try electric most will NEVER drive ICE again… They are pure CRAP…I expect carbon reduction rebates will become standard within a couple years as battery production ramps to keep up with increasing EV demand….. As folks experience what I am they’ll realize how amazing EVs are and that ICE cars are a sick joke! 90% cheaper to operate! Recently got a used Leaf for $13k, that goes 100 miles and looks brand new… It’s friggin awesome. Waiting for my model 3 (just configured it for a northern Idaho winter).

    What Tesla is doing, on multiple fronts, is gamechanging… GigaFactory, large scale utility battery grid management, rooftop & power walls… And now boring City transit at 10% or less than traditional costs… Luv that man!

    Liked by 2 people

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