NASA: April of 2019 was Second Hottest on Record

Before we get into the latest record or near record global heat news, I’d just like to make a brief announcement. Concordant with editorial guidance from The Guardian, I’ll be changing my climate communications to more fully reflect the crisis that is now ongoing. Whenever possible, I’ll be using the words — climate crisis to replace climate change, and global heating to replace global warming.

I’ve already made liberal use of the term human forced climate change — this will change to human forced climate crisis or global heating when possible. In addition, the elevation of linkages between fossil fuel burning — which is the crisis’ primary driver — to present global heating will continue.

(Global heat for April of 2019.)

In my view, this verbiage more sufficiently communicates a necessary sense of urgency. For the climate crisis is upon us now and we are now experiencing more extreme impacts. In other words, we’ve already taken one full turn of the climate crisis ratchet by allowing fossil fuels to continue to dominate our energy systems. We don’t want to experience a second or third full turn and the related terrible tightening.

*****

The climate crisis deepens further…

According to NASA GISS, global temperatures have again jumped into near record hot ranges. Readings from this key global monitor found that April of 2019 hit 0.99 degrees Celsius above mid 20th Century ranges. This is about 1.21 C above 1880s values that bound the start of the NASA monitor. In total, it’s a value that makes April of 2019 the second hottest such month in the 139 year global climate record. And the temperatures we are experiencing now are likely the hottest annual and decadal averages in the last 120,000 years.

(April of 2019 anomalies paint a picture of global heat. Image source: NASA.)

Looking at the NASA temperature anomalies map above we find the greatest departures from typical April averages centering on the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This distribution of abnormal warmth is consistent with polar amplification in which relative warming tends to center on the poles as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations increase. The ongoing and massive burning of fossil fuels — beginning in the 18th Century and rapidly ramping through the 20th Century — has provided the majority of these gasses. They are pushing the Earth system into the severe warming spike we now see today.

The Equatorial region also showed elevated heat — consistent with an ongoing weak El Nino (which also nudges Earth into the warm side of natural variability, making regional and global all time heat records more likely). Meanwhile, very few cool pools were found. The notable region being a persistent cool zone in the North Atlantic near melting Greenland (predicted by climate models and a facilitator of unstable weather for North America, the Northern Atlantic, and Europe).

Overall temperature track for 2019 is still behind the record hot year of 2016 (see predicted range by Dr. Gavin Schmidt above). And it appears likely that 2019 will hit in the range of 5th to 1st hottest on record. This year, however, is likely to strike close to or even above 2016 values during some months as the effect of the weak El Nino combined with the larger trend of global heating by fossil fuel burning sets the stage for potential new high temperature records.

(Want to help fight the climate crisis by transitioning to a clean energy vehicle? Get 1,000 to 5,000 free supercharger miles at this link.)

 

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58 Comments

  1. Genomik

     /  May 21, 2019

    California just had very abnormal rains and hail in May. 2-6” rain and lots of hail is highly unusual in May. The wine harvest might be affected as this could affect grape ripening. The hail coated large areas of N California and may cause other challenges.

    Liked by 3 people

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  2. rhymeswithgoalie

     /  May 21, 2019

    Whenever possible, I’ll be using the words — climate crisis to replace climate change, and global heating to replace global warming.

    I’ve tried to use the term most appropriate to a particular problem, like ocean expansion and/or glacial melt when discussing SLR, ocean warming and/or ocean heating for ice shelf and marine glacier melting, ocean warming and/or ocean acidification for damage to marine ecosystems, etc. (Using a style guide would imply I have…style.)

    Liked by 1 person

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  3. PlazaRed

     /  May 21, 2019

    21st of May 2019.
    Temps tomorrow in Seville, Spain are forecast to be about +36/C, or just touching up to 100/F.
    The operative words ate 21st of May 2019?
    We have about 4 months to go now until the temps start to drop! They may not go much higher, or they may top out in the mid 40s or higher but its going to be seriously warm here for the next 120 days at least.
    Meanwhile the Arctic sea ice is melting away and the Antarctic is not really freezing up at a normal rate.
    Que sera sera.

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    • PlazaRed

       /  May 28, 2019

      28th of May 2019.
      Temps in the cities of Cordoba and Seville in southern Spain are about to reach or near 40 degrees Centigrade, well over 100/F, Do please bear in mind that this is before the end of May and these temps, or in fact some a lot higher will continue until some time in September.
      The land here is as dry as tinder with a lot of abundant dead vegetation from the damp or wet winter, so the wildfires may be the next issue we have to contend with.

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  4. Vic

     /  May 22, 2019

    More than 50% of coral reefs around Tahiti and Moorea have become bleached in recent days. The bleaching has been observed as deep as 100 metres.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-05-21/coral-bleaching-french-polynesia/11129634

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  5. redskylite

     /  May 22, 2019

    Slight alarming release from the Moscow based SKOLKOVO INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY – they have discovered a new reason why “a large part of methane escapes into the atmosphere (over the the East Siberian Arctic Shelf), due to the decomposition of gas hydrates crystalline compounds formed from gas and water at low temperature and high pressure. ”

    It seems they were investigating partly because it “cause accidents hindering economic activity in the Arctic , one of the most promising hydrocarbon production regions.”

    They have released a paper – the translation summary report is a little puzzling to me as I used to spread salt on ice to melt it on my garden path occasionally.

    Maybe I missed something in the logic.

    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-05/sios-sda052119.php

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    • mlp in nc

       /  May 23, 2019

      Leland Palmer
      I’m sure I’m not the only one who would like your thoughts.

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  6. I’ve also changed my language. Instead of denying climate change, I use denying the climate crisis against deniers. Now they can’t say, nobody denies…

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  7. wharf rat

     /  May 23, 2019

    Nearly 5,000 people have been evacuated from their homes in northern Alberta, Canada, to escape a monstrous blaze that has reached nearly 230,000 acres, officials in the province said.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/22/americas/alberta-canada-wildfires/index.html

    Liked by 1 person

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  8. eleggua

     /  May 23, 2019

    Worms.

    May 20, 2019

    “….“Earthworms are yet another factor that can affect the carbon balance,” Werner Kurz, a researcher with the Canadian Forest Service in Victoria, British Columbia, wrote in an email. His fear is that the growing incursion of earthworms — not just in North America, but also in northern Europe and Russia — could convert the boreal forest, now a powerful global carbon sponge, into a carbon spout.

    Moreover, the threat is still so new to boreal forests that scientists don’t yet know how to calculate what the earthworms’ carbon effect will be, or when it will appear.

    “It is a significant change to the carbon dynamic and how we understand it works,” Ms. Shaw said. “We don’t truly understand the rate or the magnitude of that change.”

    The relationship between carbon and earthworms is complex. Earthworms are beloved by gardeners because they break down organic material in soil, freeing up nutrients. This helps plants and trees grow faster, which locks carbon into living tissue. Some types of invasive earthworms also burrow into mineral soil and seal carbon there.

    But as earthworms speed decomposition, they also release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. As they occupy more areas of the world, will they ultimately add more carbon to the atmosphere — or subtract it?

    That question led to what Ingrid M. Lubbers, a soil researcher at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, christened the “earthworm dilemma” in a paper published in 2013 in Nature Climate Change. Scientists have been keen to resolve it ever since. ….”

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  9. eleggua

     /  May 23, 2019

    List of storm names for 2019 hurricane season

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  10. eleggua

     /  May 23, 2019

    Andrea Kicks Off Hurricane Season Early for the Fifth Consecutive Year
    5.21.2019
    https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-04-23-hurricane-season-named-storms-before-june1

    “The Atlantic hurricane season kicked off early for the the fifth-consecutive year Monday, when Subtropical Storm Andrea formed south of Bermuda.

    Hurricane season technically runs from June through November, but there’s nothing magical about those dates.

    At least one named storm has developed before June each hurricane season since 2015, some of which had impacts in the U.S. and elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin.

    The latest one, Andrea, will not impact the United States and is likely to fizzle soon as it becomes absorbed by a cold front….”

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  11. Robert in New Orleans

     /  May 23, 2019

    Another Mississippi rise threatens to trigger Morganza Spillway opening
    https://www.nola.com/environment/2019/05/another-mississippi-rise-threatens-to-trigger-morganza-spillway-opening.html
    Heavy rains expected in the Midwest portion of the Mississippi River Valley during the next week have prompted Army Corps of Engineers officials to warn interests within the Morganza Floodway portion of the Atchafalaya River Basin that the Morganza Spillway structure could be opened as soon as June 2.

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    • Robert in New Orleans

       /  May 23, 2019

      If the Old River Control Structure Fails: A Catastrophe With Global Impact
      https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/If-Old-River-Control-Structure-Fails-Catastrophe-Global-Impact
      Even as technology becomes an ever-bigger part of our world, the Mississippi River remains the very lifeblood of the American economy. If the river were to carve a new path to the Gulf of Mexico down the Atchafalaya River during a massive flood, extremely damaging short- and long-term impacts costing hundreds of billions of dollars would result, along with a dangerous threat to global food supplies.

      Liked by 1 person

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  12. Robert in New Orleans

     /  May 23, 2019

    Oh, and I just wanted to give you “props” on your recent interview on Radio Ecoshock. You have a great radio voice and you are a very effective verbal communicator.

    https://www.ecoshock.org/2019/05/climate-threats-electric-dreams.html

    Every couple of years we spend time with Robert Fanney. Robert has gone through multiple evolutions – and that continues. He is a respected science-fiction writer, he has worked for the premier Defense Analyst “Jane’s” as a risk analyst. Robert Scribbler’s Blog became a home base for an active group of climate watchers. Lately Fanney has moved to video blogging on climate, and then just recently, brought out his interests in clean tech and electric transportation. So it’s definitely time for an update from Robert Fanney on Radio Ecoshock.

    PS When are you going to interview Elon Musk?

    Liked by 1 person

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  13. wharf rat

     /  May 24, 2019

    The bus wars are over. Electricity — and China — won.
    China has 421,000 electric buses. The United States has 300.
    https://thinkprogress.org/electric-buses-outsell-diesel-china/

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  14. wharf rat

     /  May 25, 2019

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  15. mlp in nc

     /  May 25, 2019

    Just found SSTA 3.3C in Red Sea. (17.07° N, 42.13° Ex 33.3 °C). That is only 1.7 C from wet bulb.

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  16. mlp in nc

     /  May 25, 2019

    See Dr. Jeff Masters @ Cat 6. May 24, 2019, 2:41 PM EDT
    Mississippi River’s Morganza Spillway Expected to Open For 3rd Time in History.
    (Completed in 1954, opened previously in 1973, 2011.)

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    • mlp in nc

       /  May 25, 2019

      When reading Dr. Masters description of the 2011 opening, when they waited until waves were overlapping the structure, I recalled that the gates on the Morganza are opened by chassis on top of it, so if the spillway is completely over topped the gates cannot be opened.

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    • nwkilt

       /  May 26, 2019

      If the Old River Control Structure Fails: A Catastrophe With Global Impact
      https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/If-Old-River-Control-Structure-Fails-Catastrophe-Global-Impact

      Failure of the ORCS and the resulting loss of barge shipping that might result could well trigger a global food emergency. The U.S. is one of the world’s largest exporters of grain, and 60% of that grain is transported to market by barges travelling on the Lower Mississippi River. A multi-month interruption in the supplies of more than half of U.S. grain to the rest of the world can be expected to cause a spike in global food prices, and potentially create dangerous food shortages in vulnerable food-insecure nations.

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  17. In New Zealand, you can choose to buy 100% certified carbon zero electricity (at no extra charge!). Is that possible where you live, and if so, does it cost extra?
    https://blog.planetaryecology.org/2019/05/25/green-electricity-is-it-for-real/

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  18. wharf rat

     /  May 27, 2019

    Discovering the Climate Change Resilience of Coast Redwood Forests

    After a decade of studying the impacts of climate change throughout redwood forests, the Redwoods and Climate Change Initiative (RCCI) shares new insight into how coast redwood trees are growing today.

    By Emily Burns, PhD, and Stephen Sillett, PhD

    Earth’s climate is changing rapidly, and redwoods are responding. Mature trees alive today have already experienced centuries of climatic fluctuations, including extreme weather predicted to become more frequent. The Redwoods and Climate Change Initiative (RCCI), a research program led by Save the Redwoods League and Humboldt State University, takes a comprehensive look back in time, using tree rings to see what happened when these trees survived droughts and fire. The study compares trees living in northern rainforests with those living in drier forests farther inland and south. Our research began in old-growth forests and is now expanding into second-growth (previously logged) forests, encompassing the full geographic range of coast redwoods (Sequoia sempervirens) (FIGURE 1).

    In every part of the forest, our findings show the tremendous carbon sequestration capacity of redwoods, their ability to resist fire, drought, and disease, and where they grow fastest….

    Older redwoods gain biomass rapidly simply because they have large crowns full of leaves conducting photosynthesis and an expansive surface area of cambium for production of bark and wood (Sillett et al. 2015b). Cumulatively over centuries, this results in incredible biomass storage in individual trees and the forest as a whole. Rainforests in California’s Del Norte County, which borders Oregon, hold the world record for aboveground biomass, at more than 5,000 Mg ha-1 (2,023 metric tons per acre; Van Pelt et al. 2016), which means in an area nearly the size of two football fields, there is enough heartwood to build 212 homes!

    With red heartwood capable of resisting decay for millennia, individual coast redwoods can live over 2,500 years and accumulate over 400 Mg of aboveground biomass, the bulk of which is heartwood (Sillett et al. 2015b). While logged forests lost their major carbon stock when the original trees were cut, our research shows that the oldest second-growth redwood forests alive today have accumulated as much as 1,667 Mg ha-1 (675 metric tons per acre, Sillett et al. 2019). In other words, second-growth redwood forests can accumulate about a third as much aboveground biomass as comparable old-growth forests in much less than 200 years, though the proportion of decay-resistant heartwood is considerably lower (56% vs. 76%, FIGURE 3)….

    …in Del Norte County, a 704-year-old redwood (tree 49) with nearly 7,700 m2 (1.9 acres) of leaves in Redwood Experimental Forest witnessed logging of an adjacent forest during the 20th century. Now tree 49 is exhibiting exceptional growth, producing over 1,000 kg yr-1 so far during the 21st century. In 2014, its aboveground biomass increased by an astonishing 1,275 kg (2,811 pounds), which is the fastest growth rate known for any tree worldwide….

    After more than a century, redwood forests recovering from 19th-century logging have accumulated more biomass than nearly any forest ever measured

    https://www.savetheredwoods.org/redwoods-magazine/spring-2019/discovering-the-climate-change-resilience-of-coast-redwood-forests/

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  19. wharf rat

     /  May 27, 2019

    Like

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  20. Syd Bridges

     /  May 29, 2019

    I wonder how long it will be, barring urgent and long overdue action, before the “climate crisis” becomes the “climate catastrophe.” But I agree that the new nomenclature is appropriate and much more realistic. IIRC, “climate change” was coined by GOP strategist Frank Lutz to sound less threatening than global warming. It seems that Mother Nature is now sandblasting that lipstick off the pig.

    It will be very interesting to see the final ranking of 2019, with its weak El Nino. Should it top 2016, then I think we will be very well into the crisis.

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  21. Andy_in_SD

     /  May 29, 2019

    More than 500 tornado reports have been made across the nation in the last 30 days.
    There are only four other recorded instances when more than 500 US tornadoes were observed in a 30-day period: in 2003, 2004, 2008 and 2011

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  22. wharf rat

     /  May 30, 2019

    Japan’s heatwave in July 2018 could not have happened without climate change.

    That is the unequivocal conclusion of a report released last week, as the country battles yet another record-breaking heatwave.

    The July 2018 heatwave, which killed 1,032 people, saw temperatures reach 41.1C, the highest temperature ever recorded in the country. Torrential rains also triggered landslides and the worst flooding in decades.

    Penned by the Meteorological Society of Japan, the study is the first to establish that some aspects of the international heatwave could not have occurred in the absence of global warming. Scientists reached this conclusion by employing a technique known as event attribution (EA)….

    https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/05/29/deadly-japan-heatwave-essentially-impossible-without-global-warming/

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  23. wharf rat

     /  May 31, 2019

    Liked by 2 people

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  24. Jeremy in Wales

     /  June 2, 2019

    On a slight positive note the UK, as at 9.15pm 2 June has gone 16days and 5 hours without burning coal for electricity. It was only in 2017 that the first coal free period was maintained. OK gas is the main replacement source of energy but we have to eliminate coal.
    Great graph in article https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/may/25/the-power-switch-tracking-britains-record-coal-free-run

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  25. wharf rat

     /  June 4, 2019

    Also see

    Midwest flooding is drowning corn and soy crops. Is climate change to blame?
    This year’s constant deluge of rain has led some to wonder if farmers are finally feeling the predicted impacts of a warming world.

    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/06/midwest-rain-climate-change-wrecking-corn-soy-crops/

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  26. wharf rat

     /  June 4, 2019

    Like

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  27. Robert in New Orleans

     /  June 4, 2019

    Climate change could pose ‘existential threat’ by 2050:

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/04/health/climate-change-existential-threat-report-intl/index.html

    Twenty days of lethal heat per year. Collapsed eco-systems. And more than one billion people displaced.Those are all probable scenarios that could devastate societies by 2050 if swift and dramatic action isn’t taken to curb climate change, according to a think tank report backed by a former Australian military chief.

    Liked by 2 people

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  28. wharf rat

     /  June 5, 2019

    Landing in about 20 minutes…
    LOS ANGELES — Los Angeles World Airports, the city agency that manages LAX, and United Airlines on Wednesday will welcome the arrival of “Flight for the Planet,” billed as the most “eco-friendly” commercial flight of its kind.

    According to LAWA and the airline, the flight will use sustainable aviation biofuel and eliminate cabin waste while also being carbon-neutral.

    https://www.redlandsdailyfacts.com/2019/06/05/lax-welcomes-eco-friendly-united-airlines-flight-powered-by-biofuel/

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  29. A 1980 paper clearly laid out why climate change is a global tragedy of the commons, but it was ahead of its time and no one noticed.
    https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/climate-change-is-a-fourfold-tragedy/

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  30. wharf rat

     /  June 6, 2019

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  31. wharf rat

     /  June 6, 2019

    Energy Vault Funding Breathes Life Into Gravity Storage

    Recent investments and patent filings indicate growing interest in a class of energy storage concepts that appear seductively simple but have yet to gain commercial traction.

    The speculative field of gravity-based energy storage got a boost recently with news of a strategic investment and new patents.

    Swiss-U.S. startup Energy Vault, one of the most high-profile gravity storage players to date, secured financial backing from Cemex Ventures, the corporate venture capital unit of the world’s second-largest building materials giant, and a pledge to help with deployment through Cemex’s ” strategic network.”

    Meanwhile, the University of Nottingham and the World Society of Sustainable Energy Technologies confirmed the filing of patent applications for a concept called EarthPumpStore, which uses abandoned mines as gravity storage assets.

    Implementing the technology across 150,000 disused open-cast mines in China alone could deliver an estimated storage capacity of 250 terawatt-hours, the University of Nottingham said in a press note.

    The announcements indicate growing interest in a class of energy storage concepts that appear seductively simple but have yet to gain widespread acceptance.

    Most gravity storage concepts are based on the idea of using spare electricity to lift a heavy block, so the energy can be recovered when needed by letting the weight drop down again.

    In the case of Energy Vault, the blocks are made of concrete and are lifted up by cranes 33 stories high. EarthPumpStore, meanwhile, envisages pulling containers filled with compacted earth up the sides of open-cast mines….

    https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/energy-vault-funding-breathes-life-into-gravity-storage#gs.gpr3hw

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  32. wharf rat

     /  June 7, 2019

    The largest wildfire in California history was caused by a claw hammer, according to the state’s fire protection agency.

    Cal Fire said Thursday that the Ranch Fire, which first sparked last July, began when a Potter Valley property owner was hammering a metal stake into the ground, The Fresno Bee reports.

    Cal Fire’s deputy director, Michael Mohler, told the Bee that incident was a “complete accident.”

    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/447333-cal-fire-says-a-hammer-caused-largest-wildfire-in-california-history

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  33. mlp in nc

     /  June 7, 2019
    Reply
  34. wharf rat

     /  June 8, 2019

    Michael Bloomberg Launches Beyond Carbon, the Largest-Ever Coordinated Campaign Against Climate Change in United States

    New York, NY – In a commencement address today at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Michael R. Bloomberg will launch Beyond Carbon, the largest coordinated campaign to tackle climate change ever undertaken in the United States. With a $500 million investment — the largest ever philanthropic effort to fight the climate crisis — Beyond Carbon will work to ­put the U.S. on track towards a 100% clean energy economy by working with advocates around the country to build on the leadership and climate progress underway in our states, cities, and communities. Bloomberg and his foundation joined forces with the Sierra Club in 2011 to launch Beyond Coal with the goal of closing at least a third of the country’s coal plants. With 289 of 530 closed to date – more than half the country’s coal fleet – Beyond Carbon will aim to close the rest by 2030 and stop the rush to build new gas plants.

    https://www.bloomberg.org/press/releases/michael-bloomberg-launches-beyond-carbon-the-largest-ever-coordinated-campaign-against-climate-change-in-united-states/

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  35. Robert in New Orleans

     /  June 9, 2019

    Sea levels may rise much faster than previously predicted, swamping coastal cities such as Shanghai, study finds

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/21/health/climate-change-sea-levels-scn-intl/index.html

    Global sea levels could rise more than two meters (6.6 feet) by the end of this century if emissions continue unchecked, swamping major cities such as New York and Shanghai and displacing up to 187 million people, a new study warns.

    Link to cited paper:

    https://www.pnas.org/content/116/23/11195

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  36. wharf rat

     /  June 12, 2019

    HBO showed this yesterday. It’s on again today at 5 PM, California time

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  37. eleggua

     /  June 14, 2019

    ‘Hopes for Cutting Carbon Do Not Yet Match Reality’
    Prices on carbon are not strict enough to make significant dents in emissions
    June 13, 2019
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/hopes-for-cutting-carbon-do-not-yet-match-reality/

    “Global climate awareness may never have been higher, but two recent studies show just how much work the world has to do to turn its carbon-cutting dreams into reality.

    The first study, released last week by the World Bank, found 5% of carbon prices employed around the world today are stringent enough to keep global temperatures from rising by more than 2 degrees Celsius.

    BP PLC released the second yesterday in the form of its annual statistical review of global energy markets. The bottom line: Energy emissions worldwide were up 2% in 2018, the largest year-over-year increase since 2011.

    “My guess is that when our successors look back at Statistical Reviews from around this period, they will observe a world in which there was growing societal awareness and demands for urgent action on climate change, but where the actual energy data continued to move stubbornly in the wrong direction,” Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist, observed in a post outlining the oil company’s findings.

    He framed it “a growing mismatch between hopes and reality.”

    The BP report shows why. Renewables grew by 14.5% worldwide in 2018, a robust if slightly lower rate than previous years. But much of those gains were erased by global energy demand, which surged by 2.9%. That pushed up demand for coal by 1.4% and natural gas by 5.3%.

    The trend was especially prevalent in the United States, where energy consumption rose by 3.5% in 2018, reversing a decade of declines. The figure is the highest spike in American energy demand in three decades….”

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  38. eleggua

     /  June 14, 2019

    June 2019

    Communities in Oregon and Washington most threatened by wildfire identified

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    • eleggua

       /  June 14, 2019

      10 most-threatened communities in Oregon.

      (research was commissioned by the U.S. Forest Service’s Northwest Region)

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  39. eleggua

     /  June 14, 2019

    ‘Alberta wildfires linked to climate change, scientist says’
    University of Alberta professor says ‘We are seeing climate change in action’
    Jun 09, 2019
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-wildfires-climate-change-1.5168355

    “…Recent fires have been connected to climate change in two separate research papers published earlier this year by scientists with Environment and Climate Change Canada.

    In May 2016, a wildfire near Fort McMurray forced more than 80,000 people to flee the northern Alberta city, destroyed 2,400 buildings and burned nearly 6,000 square kilometres of forest.

    A year later, the fire season in British Columbia broke records as 2,117 blazes consumed more than 12,000 square kilometres of bush.

    “We are seeing climate change in action,” said University of Alberta wildland fire Prof. Mike Flannigan.

    “The Fort McMurray fire was 1 1/2 to six times more likely because of climate change. The 2017 record-breaking B.C. fire season was seven to 11 times more likely because of climate change.”

    The largest community evacuated in Alberta so far this year has been High Level. The vast Chuckegg Creek fire still churns in the woods south of town. It grew to 2,660 square kilometres in the first few weeks and remains one of several blazes burning out-of-control in the province….

    It takes time for scientists to research and connect individual events to climate change, but Flannigan said it has become a major factor in Canadian fire seasons.

    “We burn about 2.5 million hectares a year on average — that’s using about a 10-year average,” he said. “It’s more than doubled since the late ’60s and early ’70s.

    “Colleagues and I attribute this to human-caused climate change. I can’t be any more clear than that.”

    Most fire experts use a 10-year average for comparisons but, even using a five-year model, the number of fires in Alberta so far this year is already closing in on that number.

    Alberta Wildfire data shows that, as of Friday, there were 569 wildfires in the province. The five-year average is 616. But they have already burned nearly 6,692 square kilometres, much higher than the five-year average of 1,387 square kilometres.

    “There’s been a lot of research that’s shown as we warm, we get more fire,” says Flannigan.

    He says there are three reasons: longer fire seasons, drier fuels and more lightning, which research has shown is increasing by 10 to 12 per cent with every degree of warming….

    There’s already one sign that climate change is playing a role on the Chuckegg Creek fire near High Level, said Flannigan.

    “Getting May fires up there is really early for that part of the province,” he said, explaining the area would normally start seeing fires in July.

    “Same with the Fort McMurray fire. That fire started May 1.

    “The 2017 fire season in British Columbia — their busiest month is August — it started July 7 and that was really, really early for extreme fire weather for them.””

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    • eleggua

       /  June 14, 2019

      Parts of Alberta are experiencing their driest spring on record this year.

      “Edmonton’s records go back to 1880, Lloydminster’s go back to 1953, High Level’s go back to 1966 and Fort Vermillion’s go back to 1905. However, across those records, 2019 has been the driest.

      For the months of March, April and May, High Level saw only 2.1 millimetres of rain. Fort Vermillion had 10.2 mm, Lloydminster had 29.1 mm and Edmonton had 25.9 mm.

      That is a very minimal amount of precipitation. Edmonton has received 33.9 mm of rain so far in June, which has helped the dry conditions. Environment Canada said the regions around High level haven’t seen any.

      As of 10 a.m. on Wednesday, there were 17 wildfires burning in Alberta, seven of which were considered to be out of control. The largest of them is the Chuckegg Creek fire, which was nearly 270,000 hectares in size as of Wednesday night. One hectare is larger than a football field.”

      – Global News, 6.12.2019

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  40. eleggua

     /  June 14, 2019

    North American Fire Danger, 6 .12 .2019

    Note the area in southern Alberta and Saskatoon compared to south of the border in the US.
    Low-to-moderate danger in Montana however extreme danger directly over the border in southern Canada.

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  41. eleggua

     /  June 14, 2019

    ‘Tesla is delivering 1,000 cars a day en route to record quarter’
    Jun. 14th 2019
    https://electrek.co/2019/06/14/tesla-delivering-1000-cars-day-record-quarter/

    “…Tesla aims to deliver between 33,000 and 36,000 vehicles in June in North America to break its delivery record….

    Furthermore, there are almost 7,000 more deliveries planned over the next 7 days and even more last-minute deliveries are expected over the last week of the quarter as buyers try to get deliveries before the now $3,750 federal tax credit on Tesla vehicles goes down again….

    Buyers need to take delivery by the end of the quarter in order to get the full $3,750.

    After that, it drops to $1,875 until the end of the year at which point, Tesla buyers will not have access to any federal tax credit unless the law changes within the next 6 months. States like California, New York, Colorado and others offer separate incentives….”

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  42. eleggua

     /  June 16, 2019

    Fox News(!) reposted this piece.

    Arctic Permafrost Is Going Through a Rapid Meltdown — 70 Years Early
    By Grant Currin, Live Science Contributor | June 13, 2019 03:20pm ET
    https://www.livescience.com/65709-arctic-permafrost-melts-decades-early.html

    ” In the Canadian Arctic, layers of permafrost that scientists expected to remain frozen for at least 70 years have already begun thawing. The once-frozen surface is now sinking and dotted with melt ponds and from above looks a bit like Swiss cheese, satellite images reveal.

    “We were astounded that this system responded so quickly to the higher air temperatures,” said Louise Farquharson, a co-author of the study and postdoctoral fellow at the Permafrost Laboratory at the University of Alaska Fairbanks….

    The researchers recorded permafrost thawing to depths that were not expected until air temperatures reached levels the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted will occur after 2090, according to one of its “moderate” climate change models. The IPCC, which is a body of the United Nations, provides scientific information to help guide countries’ climate policies.

    The researchers believe higher summer temperatures, low levels of insulating vegetation and the presence of ground ice near the surface contributed to the exceptionally rapid and deep thawing.

    The most striking evidence is visible to the naked eye. As upper layers of permafrost thaw and ice melts, the land settles unevenly, forming what is known as thermokarst topography. Landscapes in the Canadian Arctic that had been defined by gently rolling hills are now pockmarked with ditches and small ponds. The ground at the northernmost study site sank by about 35 inches (90 centimeters) over the course of the study.

    “We had this flat terrain when we started monitoring,” Farquharson told Live Science. “In 10 or so years, we saw the landscape transform.”…”

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  43. mlp in nc

     /  June 16, 2019

    Have a gander at what passes for the Northern Hemisphere jet stream these days.
    https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#ws250-snowc-topo

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  44. wharf rat

     /  June 17, 2019

    Every year after 2014 will be warmer than every year before 2014

    GISS calendar year average above 1951-1980 ‘baseline’:

    2014: .73C
    2015: .87
    2016: .99
    2017: .90
    2018: .82

    2019 is coming on strong, possibly a new record. No chance it will be cooler than 2014, and 2014 was above the next warmest year, 2010’s .70C.

    It’s hard to call five-plus years a fluke, and even if it’s a cycle, the signal of .2C rise per decade is rising above the noise. Absent a massive volcanic eruption, we’re not looking back even to the significant warming that was experienced just nine years ago – we’re off in uncharted territory.

    Might be something worth betting over for the next time denialists say something foolish.

    http://rabett.blogspot.com/2019/06/every-year-after-2014-will-be-warmer.html

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  1. NASA: April of 2019 was Second Hottest on Record – Enjeux énergies et environnement

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