A Possible Vaccine, But When?

Today, news broke that one of about a dozen vaccine candidates for COVID-19 passed Phase I trials in human beings. And the results, according to the vaccine manufacturer Moderna, were rather optimistic. As with any such announcements, we should probably remain cautious and not overstate any potential news. But it is somewhat good news nonetheless.

Messenger RNA Vaccine

The new vaccine candidate, produced by Moderna in partnership with the National Institutes of Health, is a messenger RNA vaccine. In Phase I trials starting earlier this year, the vaccine was tested on 45 people. This first set of test participants for Moderna’s trial COVID-19 vaccine was broken into three groups. Each group received a different dose of the vaccine. All groups received both an initial shot and a booster shot a month later.

Messenger RNA vaccine

A new messenger RNA vaccine produced by Moderna is entering Phase II trials for COVID-19. Messenger RNA provides a new approach to vaccination — signalling the immune system directly to produce specific antibodies. Such vaccines show promise for dealing with typically difficult to vaccinate illnesses such as flu and some forms of cancer. Image source: PHG.

Moderna is producing and testing a messenger RNA vaccine to target the virus for SARS-CoV-2 in a new approach. A particular immunization process that provides a kind of RNA that tells immune cells what specific kinds of antibodies to build. Such messenger RNA vaccines have advantages in that they are often faster and cheaper to produce than other kinds of vaccines and can directly communicate to the immune system a given infection-fighting need. Messenger RNA vaccination has shown promise in tackling some of the most difficult to vaccinate illnesses such as flu and even some forms of cancer.

Good Results in Phase I Trial — Moving to Phase II

In Moderna’s Phase I COVID-19 trial, results included expressed coronavirus antibodies in all test participants, the presence of neutralizing antibodies in laboratory cell tests, and only minor side effects. All test participants showed immunogenicity — the ability to produce antibodies capable of fighting COVID-19. This is a key step in vaccine viability. Further, 8 test subjects were more closely examined in a laboratory environment. Each of these subjects were found to possess antibodies capable of preventing COVID-19 infection. These neutralizing antibodies bind to the virus, disabling its ability to attack human cells. Finally, the company reported that the vaccine produced no serious side effects. Minor side effects included — redness at the injection site, headache, fever and flu-like symptoms. None lasted for more than a day.

Though Moderna’s vaccine produced promising results in the laboratory, it is not yet known if the vaccine is capable of producing immunity in real world environments. To this end, the FDA has granted Moderna approval to move on to Phase II trials. Moderna plans to test an additional 600 participants during Phase II — of which about 300 are older than 55 — to help determine the vaccine’s practical viability. In Phase II trials, vaccine developers typically test thousands. But given the fact that COVID-19 is so lethal — killing thousands of people each day worldwide — Moderna’s Phase II trial is being accelerated based on critical need for a life-saving vaccine.

It is expected that Phase III trials will begin in July if the vaccine continues to show viability following Phase II. Phase III is the final phase before a vaccine is approved for general public use. Phase III typically involves many thousands of participants.

Some Questions Raised About Moderna’s Announcement

Though Moderna’s announcement may provide a greatly desired spark of hope for an eventual, if somewhat longer term, resolution to the present pandemic, questions about the announcement have been raised by some in the medical reporting community. STAT — an American health oriented news site run by John W. Henry who owns the Boston Globe — recently reported some of these concerns. Primarily, so far, it appears that Moderna has, as yet, not provided enough data for a full peer review of its vaccine by the public community of experts. STAT also raised the question of whether the other 37 participants in the study produced binding antibodies (Moderna has not yet clarified this point — only stating that 8 participants showed binding antibodies). Another issue is time-frame for vaccine durability. STAT notes that study participants produced antibodies two weeks after vaccination. So, as yet, we have no information regarding the issue of how long Moderna’s vaccine results in a protective antibody response. All the issues raised by STAT are worth considering and provide good reason to remain cautious about early COVID-19 vaccine announcements.

Public Availability Still Many Months Away

Regardless of whether or not Moderna’s particular vaccine candidate proves valid, the time-frame for the public availability of any vaccine, even in the best case, would be the end of 2020. Dr. Anthony Fauci stated that it would take 12-18 months to develop a vaccine and have it widely available on the market in the best case scenario. Moderna representatives have estimates that follow similar timelines — stating that market availability is likely to take until January through June of 2021.

And this is if things go well. If both Phase II and Phase III trials are a success and the laboratory demonstrated viability that Moderna claims is validated in a real-world environment.

If things do go well, it’s possible that Phase III trials could be conducted in a manner that targets highest risk populations so as to have some impact on preventing infection and reducing loss of life due to COVID-19. There is historical precedent for limited vaccine use in this manner — as occurred during the 1957 H2N2 flu pandemic. At that time limited vaccine doses were targeted for greatest effect during late 1957. But this could only happen in the presence of effective testing to determine hot spot regions and communities. So the broader Phase III trials could start to target those populations in a meaningful way if such a practice were determined to be safe, humane, and effective by health experts.

Nevertheless, such a capability is still months away in the best case and a broader publicly available vaccine is unlikely before year end at the earliest. So let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. That said, it is nice to be able to share a bit of qualified good news in this difficult time.

(UPDATED to include new information from STAT and to further apply journalistic standards.)

Leave a comment


  1. I remember the swine flu vaccine. It must have passed the three test phases but had to be withdrawn because it was associated with the development of Guillaine-Barre syndrome. I hope this vaccine is available as soon as possible but we must be cautious about unforeseen effects.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Absolutely. Although I think they’ll try to get it out as rapidly as possible. The estimate for January to June of 2021 is if all goes well with trials. Also worth noting that the initial 45 test participants were all in good health. So, as with most Phase I trials, the side effects may not be more broadly indicative. We have a ways to go yet. But still qualified good news.


  2. wharf rat

     /  May 21, 2020

    Cyclone Crushes Corona-Crippled India-Bangladesh

    Liked by 1 person

  3. doldrom

     /  May 21, 2020

    – Given the history of testing on prison populations, the optics could be very tricky.
    – Testing on nursing home populations is also problematical given the complete failure to protect these populations in almost all countries to date.
    – One problem with Moderna’s press releases: The data has not yet been made public. Life a CFO announcing results with no financials statements.


    • Volunteer Phase III test participants from more vulnerable groups may be a decent path forward. For my part, I await expert guidance. Hopefully, we will get it.

      Of course the Moderna announcement does require vetting. And given the present environment RE Trump pressure, that’s pretty important too. So caution is certainly a worthwhile watchword. Although FDA approval to go on to Phase II does help a bit. I hope that the present Admin hasn’t knocked the wheels off that particular apple cart.

      I’ve done a re-research for this piece and found some good information from STAT. Updated my post to include recent questions regarding Moderna’s announcement. We do not want to feed into any false confidence narratives here. And given the climate of great desire for a solution, it’s good to include as many of these voices of caution as possible.

      Warmest regards.


  4. wharf rat

     /  May 24, 2020


  5. wharf rat

     /  May 25, 2020


  6. wharf rat

     /  May 26, 2020

    California May Soon Mandate Uber & Lyft Shift To Electric Vehicles
    California wants more EVs for Uber and Lyft, and may have a plan to make that happen.

    People who drive for Uber and Lyft often heavily depend on that income, whether it is secondary or primary. The demand for these services has been much lower lately due to the current pandemic, which is hurting them.


    Don’t we know a Tesla Uber driver?


  7. wharf rat

     /  May 28, 2020

    The epic battle against coronavirus misinformation and conspiracy theories
    Analysts are tracking false rumours about COVID-19 in hopes of curbing their spread.

    Philip Ball &Amy Maxmen

    In the first few months of 2020, wild conspiracy theories about Bill Gates and the new coronavirus began sprouting online. Gates, the Microsoft co-founder and billionaire philanthropist who has funded efforts to control the virus with treatments, vaccines and technology, had himself created the virus, argued one theory. He had patented it, said another. He’d use vaccines to control people, declared a third. The false claims quietly proliferated among groups predisposed to spread the message — people opposed to vaccines, globalization or the privacy infringements enabled by technology. Then one went mainstream.

    On 19 March, the website Biohackinfo.com falsely claimed that Gates planned to use a coronavirus vaccine as a ploy to monitor people through an injected microchip or quantum-dot spy software. Two days later, traffic started flowing to a YouTube video on the idea. It’s been viewed nearly two million times. The idea reached Roger Stone — a former adviser to US President Donald Trump — who in April discussed the theory on a radio show, adding that he’d never trust a coronavirus vaccine that Gates had funded. The interview was covered by the newspaper the New York Post, which didn’t debunk the notion. Then that article was liked, shared or commented on by nearly one million people on Facebook. “That’s better performance than most mainstream media news stories,” says Joan Donovan, a sociologist at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

    Donovan charts the path of this piece of disinformation like an epidemiologist tracking the transmission of a new virus. As with epidemics, there are ‘superspreader’ moments. After the New York Post story went live, several high-profile figures with nearly one million Facebook followers each posted their own alarming comments, as if the story about Gates devising vaccines to track people were true.

    Coronavirus misinformation needs researchers to respond

    The Gates conspiracy theories are part of an ocean of misinformation on COVID-19 that is spreading online. Every major news event comes drenched in rumours and propaganda. But COVID-19 is “the perfect storm for the diffusion of false rumour and fake news”, says data scientist Walter Quattrociocchi at the Ca’Foscari University of Venice, Italy. People are spending more time at home, and searching online for answers to an uncertain and rapidly changing situation. “The topic is polarizing, scary, captivating. And it’s really easy for everyone to get information that is consistent with their system of belief,” Quattrociocchi says. The World Health Organization (WHO) has called the situation an infodemic: “An over-abundance of information — some accurate and some not — rendering it difficult to find trustworthy sources of information and reliable guidance.”…..



  8. wharf rat

     /  June 2, 2020


  9. wharf rat

     /  June 4, 2020


  10. wharf rat

     /  June 17, 2020

    OT… this was shot last year…



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